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Новая модель Лисяна! | Крах финансов автокомпаний | Скандал FIA и Mercedes — Transcript

by Асафьев. Жизнь · 6,885 words · 1,066 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Good day to you, good evening to you,
0:01good morning to you. It is February
0:0318th for you, or maybe February 19th,
0:05depending on when you stumbled upon
0:07this and found the time. In any case,
0:09we are very glad to see you. And the
0:11main motif of everything happening
0:14right now is losses. Losses and more
0:17losses. This is probably the biggest
0:20news and the essence of the current
0:21automotive reality, as car companies
0:23are massively writing off entire
0:24fortunes on the topic of electric
0:26vehicles. Today, we are actually going
0:28to be talking to you about this.
0:30Simultaneously, we have an engine
0:32scandal in full swing involving the FIA
0:35and Mercedes. If you happen not to be
0:37in the loop, it’s all about a Formula
0:38engine. And it’s really such an
0:40unexpected, strange, and interesting
0:41situation, which is hard to figure out
0:43how to get out of. And, of course, of
0:45course, we have a godlike new Lixiang
0:47that will take over the world, outdo
0:49Maybach, and so on. And also a little
0:52bit of conspiracy theories surrounding
0:54Toyota. Good day, bye. This is banal.
1:01An electric burnout that didn't go
1:04according to plan.
1:07Before we begin, I want to share a
1:09personal pain. A while ago, literally a
1:11couple of months, my karting coach came
1:14up to me and said: "Well, bro,
1:15everything is fine with you.""Well, in
1:18general, yes, you even look like a
1:19human, everything is good.""But gaining
1:213-4 kg wouldn't hurt, it would be good
1:24for you to get a little bigger.""So
1:26that it would be just wonderful,
1:28because it will be easier for you
1:30physically." And plus, well, the
1:32category I’m racing in now has a
1:34slightly higher car weight because
1:35it’s a senior class. Basically, I
1:38have 12 kg of lead bolted to my kart.
1:40Just as ballast. Just so that I meet
1:42the standard, well, like the normal
1:44racing weight. And first of all, it’s
1:45harder to lug the car around. Secondly,
1:46it would be more convenient if this
1:48weight was a little bit on me.
1:50Naturally spread out over muscles, body
1:53, tendons, and all those normal human
1:56things. And I’ve been desperately
1:58trying for several months now. I’ve
2:01weighed about 70 kg for my entire adult
2:04life. As far back as I can remember,
2:05it’s been like 70 kg. Well, maybe in
2:07college I weighed like 66. And my whole
2:10life, I haven't been able to do a damn
2:12thing about it. When you're, well,
2:13scrawny—and a fair number of people
2:15will understand me here—there’s
2:17really, well, damn all you can do about
2:19it. In university, in school, in
2:21childhood, maybe even up to 25 or so,
2:23you really stress about it, because,
2:25well, all around you there are these
2:27already buff, healthy guys, and you,
2:29basically, well, just have a nose, a
2:31boner, and ribs—that’s all you’ve
2:33got. And it’s absolutely unclear what
2:35your pants are even hanging on when
2:36there’s no ass. In adulthood, when I
2:38look at my peers 'bellies now, I’m
2:40like, "Heh-heh-heh-heh, life's easier
2:42for me." I’m running around, I’m
2:45doing fine, I even look like a human
2:47being, sort of, sometimes. But when
2:50there’s a goal, a goal is a goal, and
2:52I’m desperately trying, damn it, but
2:54it’s not working. My average calorie
2:56burn, well, if you believe Garmin, is
2:582,700 a day. During a race stage, my
3:01burn is 3,200 a day. That’s a lot,
3:03because I only eat twice a day. It just
3:05happened that way historically.
3:06That’s just how it’s been, well,
3:07for a long time, like, everything. I
3:08have breakfast and dinner, and that’s
3:10it, no lunch. Before that, I’m
3:11working, I’ve run off somewhere,
3:12there's a shoot or something going on,
3:14and then later. And since, well, you
3:16don't just need any mass, you also need
3:18some muscles, more or less. You can’t
3:22just gorge on bread and butter, no, you
3:23have to eat this damn healthy food. I
3:26eat chicken breasts, buckwheat, salads.
3:30Sometimes in the evenings, I try to
3:32stuff two hot meals into myself.
3:33Dumplings with pasta in a navy style.
3:35Stuffing it into myself. I mean, I love
3:37them a lot, but it turns out, maybe not
3:39that much. I eat pasta in a navy style
3:41through the pain, but there is a result
3:43. I lost a couple of kilograms. I weigh
3:4669 now. Now I need to gain five. And we
3:50started with four. I understand that
3:52for some people it might be painful
3:54that they, conversely, can’t lose
3:55weight. That’s also a problem. Well,
3:58I, I honestly don't know. I’m
4:00continuing. I’m also training
4:02actively right now. I’ve got more gym
4:04, more karting, and more of everything.
4:06The weights are going up, but not for
4:08me. The most frustrating part is that
4:10even if I suddenly succeed—you know,
4:12you have this strict training schedule,
4:13at the gym, at the kart track,
4:15somewhere else—basically, you're just
4:17doing a lot more sports. And even if I
4:20do succeed after some time, if I
4:21suddenly slow down my training pace, or
4:24let's say I get sick and spend a week
4:26resting while my body fights the
4:27illness, there's no guarantee that
4:29those muscles won't vanish, because
4:31from the body's perspective, muscles
4:33aren't really necessary at all. They
4:36consume a lot of energy, they need to
4:37be maintained, it's better to store fat
4:39instead. But most importantly, the main
4:41thing is that it’s not just me losing
4:42weight; the wallets of automotive
4:44companies are thinning out too. And
4:46let's move on to this news, because it
4:48seems to me, it really seems to me,
4:50that we are witnessing tectonic shifts
4:52that no one is noticing. Electric shock
4:59, tariffs, and fires. Ford announced
5:02massive losses in 2025. At the same
5:06time, Stellantis dropped by 22%due to
5:09its electric vehicle strategy, and GM
5:11wrote off 6 billion dollars because
5:14they also need to tweak their strategy
5:17a bit. As soon as the news appeared and
5:20started spreading across our Russian
5:21segment, I immediately wrote a detailed
5:23post on my Telegram channel. Well, like
5:26, taking my time, nice and slow, you
5:28know, drafting the text. I’ll keep
5:30writing them there, if anything. So, of
5:32course, be sure to subscribe to my
5:33Telegram. Definitely. I’ll just start
5:35writing more there out of spite. Until
5:37a law personally tells me it's
5:38forbidden to write nasty things about
5:40electric cars and the automotive
5:41industry on Telegram. Forbidden to send
5:43kisses to the audience and wish them a
5:45good morning in the mornings. A good
5:47morning in the mornings. That happens
5:49there too. Until it is legally
5:50prohibited, I won't stop doing it. Just
5:53in case, you never know. And what are
5:54you going to do about it? Beep-beep.
5:55Losses. From my point of view, a
5:58tectonic shift. And here is why. First,
6:00we need to understand that this isn't
6:02the end of it. They have only just
6:03begun the write-offs. I mean, these are
6:05just the first companies. They tallied
6:07up the 2025 results, and some came out
6:08saying, "That's it, we're writing it
6:10off," while others came out saying, "
6:12Well, you know, everything isn't going
6:13according to plan yet, not yet," but I
6:15don't give a damn. The most important
6:17thing that has begun, and we have a
6:19number of years ahead of us with the
6:20motto: "We drank, we ate, we had fun,
6:22then we tallied it up and shed a tear."
6:24What is the difference? If before, all
6:25expenses for the electric agenda, for
6:28battery plants, for the development of
6:30electric platforms, for a new electric
6:32motor, for a new processor, for any of
6:34this crap were considered investments,
6:36then now it has been written off as a
6:38loss. This means it’s not coming back
6:41. Conceptually, every company regularly
6:43spends money on some kind of
6:44development. So a company comes up with
6:46an idea that they should make something
6:48or other. We spent the money, and you
6:51have to understand, within the balance
6:52sheet, whether you just threw that
6:54money out the window and forgot about
6:56it, and that’s it, we have no assets
6:57and nothing happened, it’s just gone.
7:01Or are we still hoping that this spent
7:03money is creating some assets for us,
7:04creating some technologies that will
7:05eventually bring us cash if things work
7:07out? And this is not just wasted
7:10expenses, losses, or something like
7:12that, but an investment budget. This is
7:14our investment field, with projects
7:16here and there, yes, money is being
7:18burned, but at some point, it will
7:19start flowing back because this is
7:21development, investment, blah-blah-blah
7:23, all that vague language. But when a
7:26large company comes out and tells
7:28everyone that everything we spent here
7:31is not an investment, not our bright
7:33future, but a loss, that means it’s
7:35over, finished, buried, stop; there
7:37will be no dividends, no returns on
7:40compound interest, no market capture.
7:44That’s it, the loss has finally
7:45arrived, damn it. It’s not like Apple
7:49comes out and says, "We’ve developed
7:51the eighteenth iPhone. This is a loss
7:53for us." No, they know they’ll
7:55develop some kind of version. It
7:57won’t be much different from the
7:58seventeenth, but that doesn’t matter.
8:00And most importantly, these are our
8:02future developments, our future money,
8:03not expenses. This is important. At the
8:06same time. We already had news in 2025
8:09that Porsche, you know, had revalued
8:11its assets. And there, well, we just
8:15crunched the numbers on a calculator,
8:18and it turned out we actually have 20
8:20billion euros less in assets.
8:27I also pointed out this news in my
8:28Telegram channel and wrote about it
8:29there too. I just want to note
8:30something a bit broader here. The news
8:32also didn't really get much attention.
8:34I don't think we even covered it much
8:35in our own news at the time. But this
8:37is also a key point. What is an asset
8:39revaluation? Let's say, theoretically,
8:41you are a private investor, you have
8:43money, and you want to do something
8:46with it. Someone comes up to you and
8:48says, "Hey buddy, look, we’re
8:49building a battery plant." It costs,
8:51let's say, 100 million dollars, for
8:53example. We'll build it, and in the end
8:55, it will be worth 300 million dollars.
8:58Because there will be demand, we'll be
9:00producing a certain number of products,
9:02batteries. In the end, they will be
9:04worth a certain amount. We will be
9:06making this much money from production.
9:08And that means this asset will be worth
9:10, well, this much. You just have
9:11figures that you can calculate purely
9:13based on the company's profit margin.
9:16When we talk about an asset being
9:18revalued, it means that before, all the
9:20calculations, business models, business
9:22plans, all those boring Excel
9:24spreadsheets, were based on a certain
9:26value and profitability. Well, you know
9:29, some kind of value. Now Porsche has
9:31done the math. If the total asset value
9:34dropped by 20 billion, which includes
9:36all the electric vehicle production, it
9:39means they realize they won't make that
9:42money and the real asset value is lower
9:44. And the part that's sitting in
9:48warehouses, which is an asset—until
9:50you write it off as a loss and admit
9:52that we won't sell these batteries, or
9:54these electric motors, or this car that
9:56we hoped would give us a long, happy,
9:58wonderful life. Until you do that,
10:01hopes still linger in the air that a
10:03bright future lies ahead, with dollars,
10:05euros, and everything else.
10:07Hello.
10:09Hello. I realize it's extremely
10:12difficult to compete with a cat for
10:14attention.
10:15She’s licking my hand.
10:16Well, first of all, she licks
10:17everyone’s hands. She’s quite the
10:19little flirt. Secondly, she and the
10:21mouse are just hungry. You think they
10:24come up to be petted, like, of course,
10:26they’re just like, "Oh, Nikitos is
10:27here, we’ve been waiting for Nikitos.
10:29" Of course, Nikitos, how are you?
10:31Nikitos, let me lick your hands.
10:32Nikitos,
10:33I want to go for a ride in a Subaru.
10:34Nikitos is just hungry. We’ll record
10:37the news, then feed him. What, did you
10:38come to see me? How are things? Come on
10:40, come here.
10:43Now it’s even hard for me to talk
10:44about revaluing assets, you know, at
10:45this moment. And you can talk all you
10:51want about how, well, the bright future
10:53, ecology, how everyone cares, everyone
10:55gives a damn, and everyone is looking
10:58after Mother Nature. No. All this
11:00craziness with electric cars and the
11:03like was based on a rather cold
11:05calculation and a fairly clear
11:06mathematical model: look, we’ll limit
11:09the market now, no more internal
11:11combustion engines, no more parts for
11:13those engines. No need for fuel in such
11:16volumes. We’ll revamp all the power
11:18plants, redo everything completely, and
11:20most importantly, we’ll make money on
11:21it. We are currently investing a
11:24massive amount of cash into energy,
11:26battery plants, EVs, platforms, and all
11:28that stuff, and then we'll turn a
11:29profit. And that last part somehow
11:33didn't quite work out. It’s useless,
11:36right? That’s it, I...I...Yes,
11:39that’s the end, yeah. As a creator, I
11:43often worry about how to be more clear
11:46and interesting for my audience, how I
11:49should work on my voice, my diction,
11:52and how I should work on the material
11:55to improve it so it's more pleasant to
11:59the ear. We are constantly working on
12:02the visuals so it's more pleasant to
12:03watch and so on. Well, maybe I just
12:05need to put a cat in the frame and all
12:08my efforts regarding...everything. Now,
12:10I will finish my thought after all. I
12:12realize you've lost the thread, but I
12:13will finish. When an automaker revalues
12:15assets, when they actually drop in
12:16value, it means profitability has
12:18fallen too. Exactly, margins, net
12:20profit, whatever it is, it all dropped.
12:23And that means there's no point in
12:25throwing money in there anymore,
12:27because there are probably some, well,
12:29more interesting and more profitable
12:31ways to deploy capital. A coal mine.
12:34Perhaps that would be more profitable
12:37right now. Again, if you look at the
12:39stock charts of some coal producers and
12:41look at the stocks of some electric
12:43vehicle makers. Well, they show
12:46somewhat different numbers. My favorite
12:48stock chart, by the way, is Rivian. All
12:51the hype, all the news outlets writing
12:54about it, all the interviews, all the
12:57smart podcasts about how "oh Rivian,"
13:00look, time puts everything in its place
13:02—thank God, finally. And it seems to
13:06me that these changes are a much
13:07stronger and more fundamental factor in
13:09the fact that, in the near term, we
13:11will see some kind of renaissance of
13:13the internal combustion engine. Whether
13:16it will be a hybrid, or just a classic
13:17naturally aspirated or turbocharged one
13:19, or something else entirely. Only time
13:21will tell, once again. But the death of
13:24an artificially created industry
13:25primarily begins in Excel. And in Excel
13:28, the numbers just don't add up anymore
13:30. Great news. Internal news segment.
13:38First. The "Rotat" contest. We are
13:40holding a contest for our clients at "
13:42Rotat". We want to collect your
13:44experiences in a Reels format.
13:47Therefore, we are holding a contest for
13:49the most original, funny, unexpected,
13:51and generally any kind of review of our
13:53work in the form of Reels. The essence
13:55of the contest is very simple. You need
13:57to post a Reel on your banned social
13:58network about your experience
14:00interacting with us. It could be about
14:02your thoughts after a session, about
14:04how the session went, whether you liked
14:06it or not, anything at all. The format
14:08can be anything. Just add the hashtag#
14:10rotat26 in the description so we can
14:12find you. And that’s it, you’re in
14:13the contest. If you have already posted
14:16something similar—and we actually
14:18have quite a few clients who regularly
14:20post content about us, thoughts, or
14:22posts—you can just add the hashtag to
14:25your description, and you are
14:26automatically entered into the drawing.
14:29We will be giving away an iPhone 17 Pro
14:31, a MacBook, action cameras, iPads,
14:33gift certificates, and merch. All the
14:35details of the contest are right here
14:37in the "Rotat" Telegram channel. There
14:39will be a detailed post, everything
14:40will be written and laid out in detail.
14:42Participate. Second piece of internal
14:44news. We are changing our Boosty
14:46subscription starting March 1, 2026. As
14:49you might guess, after the New Year
14:50many people are, let's say, adjusting
14:52their prices, so starting March 1, we
14:54will change the subscription cost on
14:56Boosty. Right now it is 490 rubles. And
14:58from March 1, we will set it to 590
15:00rubles. But, here is an important
15:01clarification and why I am telling you
15:03about this here. Boosty has an "
15:05archived tier" feature. And,
15:08accordingly, for all those people who
15:10are already in our private clubs, you
15:11will keep the same subscription you
15:13currently have. We will simply archive
15:16that tier, and the 490 rubles you were
15:17paying......will remain the same. It
15:19turns out that from March 1, long-time
15:20members on Boosty will have their own
15:22unique tier that will no longer be
15:23available for new subscriptions,
15:24because the current price will be 590.
15:26Therefore, if you want to lock in the
15:28old 490 ruble price. and end up, well,
15:30in the ranks of the old guard, so,
15:31please, check out our Boosty. This
15:33needs to be done by March 1st.
15:35Afterward, we will close all current
15:36active plans; they will go to the
15:38archive, and everyone currently on them
15:40will stay on them. And after March 1st,
15:42a new and only one will appear for 590.
15:47The FIA has publicly acknowledged the
15:49scandal surrounding Mercedes engines
15:51for the first time. If you are a sane
15:54person and don't follow motorsports,
15:55Formula 1 in particular, then you're
15:56probably not aware, and that's fine.
15:59But this is a very interesting
16:00precedent that is worth discussing and
16:02paying attention to, because from a
16:04purely regulatory standpoint, how the
16:06guys will get out of this mess is
16:08unclear. I have mentioned a few times
16:10that look, the regulations in Formula 1
16:11are changing starting in 2026. There
16:14are absolutely new cars, vehicles, they
16:16have nothing in common with what was
16:18before. While previous iterations of
16:22Formula 1 car updates at least kept the
16:24old engine or allowed for using some
16:26old developments and so on, this car is
16:28completely different. I mean,
16:31completely. It is different in size
16:33from what we just had. The engine is
16:36completely different. And, accordingly,
16:38racing teams have been building the car
16:40for half a year already, ostensibly
16:41according to these new regulations.
16:43What does that look like? There is an
16:46International Automobile Federation
16:48that develops a set of rules on how
16:50they would like to see the new
16:52generation of cars. And this is a super
16:55shady mess in the sense that they are
16:58like, look, we have some principles, we
17:00want to make racing more interesting.
17:02We want to ensure that airflow and
17:04aerodynamics don't hinder the cars
17:06behind, so they can overtake easily. We
17:09feel that we went too far with the
17:11extra weight, car size, and so on. So
17:13we want to make the car smaller, we
17:15want to use aerodynamics less
17:16aggressively, and change some rules
17:18there. But, in short, look at what
17:19needs to be done. The car must be of
17:21this specific size. The dimensions are
17:23fixed, it must be no more than. And
17:25then there are geometric
17:26characteristics. The aerodynamics must
17:28be like this. These specific things are
17:30strictly prohibited, but the rest you
17:32can do however you want. And the engine
17:34also has its own specs, like, for
17:36instance, a 50/50 power distribution,
17:38and a compression ratio of 16 to 1. And
17:41there are some other parameters there
17:42as well. And, accordingly, when you
17:44have some kind of rigid metric
17:45specified in the rules, you, as a
17:47racing team, as an engineering
17:48department designing the car,
17:49understand that this parameter, well,
17:51it is defined. But if there are no
17:53specific parameters in the regulations,
17:55or if the wording is somehow, well,
17:57vague—and a new set of regulations,
18:00when the entire concept of the car is
18:02changing, by definition cannot describe
18:04in minute detail exactly what the car
18:06should look like. There are a lot of
18:08these loopholes. And it depends on who
18:10can interpret these rules, who
18:12understands the regulations, and who
18:14builds the car accordingly. This will
18:16essentially determine who the next
18:17champion will be, because during a
18:19regulation change, you can gain a
18:20significant advantage and then dominate
18:22for a couple of years; no one will be
18:23able to catch you. And I am really
18:25looking forward to twenty-six. The
18:28whole Formula 1 community is also
18:29looking forward to twenty-six, because
18:31it will be very interesting to see what
18:32scandals arise and how the cars fall
18:34apart. If everyone expected that this s
18:37**t would hit the fan only when the
18:38first race starts, it turns out that,
18:40in reality, the s**t is hitting the fan
18:42even before the season has begun.
18:45Because at first, rumors appeared that
18:47Mercedes had some interesting technical
18:49solution and some very, well, cool
18:51engine advantage that, if anything,
18:53would ensure the team a total blowout
18:56season. Well, with the nuance that
18:58Mercedes doesn't just build engines for
19:00itself, but three other teams buy them
19:03as well. And, accordingly, eight cars
19:04on the grid are powered by Mercedes
19:06engines. These were, well, at first
19:07just rumors, you know, some whispers,
19:09something floating around, something
19:10somehow. Well, it's quite possible that
19:12the teams are just playing games.
19:13Usually, no one reacts to rumors. But
19:15then, suddenly, a committee from the
19:17FIA met together with the engine
19:19manufacturers. Then some information
19:22leaked online that all the engine
19:23manufacturers had gathered again and
19:24were brainstorming, and everyone was
19:25already panicking because there’s no
19:27smoke without fire. Indeed, it means
19:29there is some kind of problem. And
19:30right now, at the moment you are
19:31watching this news update, the FIA has
19:33already officially admitted that, look,
19:35we have a problem. What does the
19:37problem consist of? Well, we have a
19:39line in the rules that says the engine
19:41must have a compression ratio of 16 to
19:431. This is a geometric characteristic.
19:45If you know how an internal combustion
19:46engine works, you understand what this
19:47is. And the next line is that technical
19:49stewards will check this compression
19:51ratio on a cooled-down engine. Well, at
19:53room temperature, figuratively speaking
19:55. And it seems Mercedes has some kind
19:58of solution where, when the engine
19:59warms up, something somewhere somehow
20:02shifts: metal, alloy, something, some
20:04extra chamber—who the hell knows, no
20:06engineer can explain it properly. But
20:09it seems that with a hot engine, they
20:11get 18 to 1, which is, naturally, a
20:12massive advantage, several tenths of a
20:14second per lap, and, consequently,
20:16Mercedes will simply disappear into the
20:18distance. The problem is that the FIA
20:21can't just change these checks that
20:23easily. They had planned something like
20:26: "okay, fine, if we realize a problem
20:27exists, we’ll react then, let's see,
20:29let's run half the season, and then if
20:30needed, well, we'll intervene." To
20:33which all the other racing teams put
20:34their foot down, like: "why the hell
20:36should they just drive off into the
20:37distance for half a year? We won't
20:39catch them, that's way too big an
20:40advantage, let's do something now."
20:42Mercedes is directly violating the
20:44regulations, because if they truly have
20:45a compression ratio of 18: 1, that is a
20:47direct violation. The other issue is
20:49that current testing cannot detect it.
20:51On the other hand, if we assume that
20:53such a technical solution really exists
20:55and the Mercedes engines reach a 18: 1
20:57compression ratio when hot, and the FIA
20:58changes the tests, manages to check a
21:00hot engine, and actually detects a
21:02violation, then what happens? That
21:04means pulling eight out of twenty cars
21:06off the starting grid for the first
21:07race. That’s a scandal. I remind you,
21:10Formula 1 is huge money, a massive
21:12number of people work there,
21:13advertising contracts, sponsors, well,
21:15like, really a lot of money. And
21:18strictly speaking, the FIA is just,
21:20well, a regulatory organization. And to
21:22them, strictly speaking, they don't
21:24care; their task is, here is the
21:25rulebook, we check it, that's it. Our
21:27task is to ensure a sporting outcome
21:29and the integrity of the sporting
21:30competition. And Mercedes is already
21:32starting to slowly spread rumors that,
21:34well, you know, we aren't stupid either
21:36. And we, well, we had a thought that
21:38we might get caught with our pants down
21:39. So, if anything, we pre-cleared some
21:41little points with the FIA, and our
21:43engine is definitely legal, everything
21:45is definitely fine with it. And if the
21:47FIA suddenly changes the inspection
21:48regulations, we will take them to court
21:49. This is madness. No, seriously, no,
21:51they couldn't just go to the FIA and
21:53say, look, we're going to break your
21:54regulations like this. You agree, right
21:56? No. That just can't be the case at
21:58all. But all this fuss, the entire
22:02motorsport internet is just waiting so
22:04eagerly for the first race of the 2026
22:06Formula 1 season. That's March 6th
22:09through 8th, by the way. Mark your
22:11calendars. There are only about two or
22:13three weeks left, and soon the racing
22:14year will finally start. Buy flowers on
22:16the 5th. Don't forget.
22:17Don't for—when you're watching the
22:19race with the boys on March 8th, don't
22:21forget to buy flowers for your girl. Or
22:23for your boyfriend, too. Li Auto
22:30unveiled a new flagship crossover in
22:32the style of Maybach. The new model is
22:36called the Li Auto Li 9 Levis. Well,
22:40apparently there weren't enough "Li" s
22:42in the names, so it’s Li Autos. Maybe
22:46they know something and the target
22:48audience just gets goosebumps at the
22:50phrase "Li." So for the sake of
22:52pleasure, and to avoid telling them
22:54they don't just have a Li Auto Li 9,
22:57but also a Levis or Liis, hell knows.
23:00There. That's how it's read. A
23:01perfectly valid question. Is Li the new
23:04car? It's utterly confusing, because
23:06essentially it's a Li 9 that had a few
23:08liters of paint poured over it, and now
23:10it looks like a Maybach. Imagine,
23:12somewhere out there, there actually
23:13exists a guy who gets goosebumps at the
23:15phrase "Li." I'm doing this "Li"
23:17nonsense right now, and he's like, "
23:19Don't stop." And, of course, of course,
23:24we have absolutely magnificent
23:26technologies there, because there's a
23:28super-fast processor, which—these are
23:30marketers, I mean, official materials
23:33—that under the hood or under the
23:35seat, they have a super-fast processor
23:37installed with a computing power of
23:392,560 TOPS. Whatever that means. Well,
23:43it's like trillions of operations per
23:45second. I'm looking at this. Well, I
23:47have the official press release here.
23:48Here you go, here is this kind of car
23:50for you. There it is. And I'm like, "
23:52Alright, okay.""So there are TOPS." I
23:55know that now. And there are 2,560 of
23:57them. Has anyone here ever actually
24:00needed even 100 TOPS? Personally, I
24:02haven't. Uh, so, I got curious. I'm
24:05like, "Fine, let's Google what TOPS is.
24:07" And it turns out, yeah, that it is,
24:08well, trillions of operations per
24:10second, yes, it's a processor spec. For
24:12example, right here, I’ve got an M4
24:13processor and that’s 38. And in a
24:16Lixiang, in the top-end Lixiang, it’s
24:182,560. What difference does it make to
24:22me as a consumer how many TOPS a
24:24Lixiang has under the hood? I don’t
24:27know. I mean, you could probably
24:29imagine some kind of neural network
24:31there that analyzes everything itself
24:32and can automatically drive the car.
24:35And that this kind of computing power
24:36is needed for some neural network. And
24:38if all this huge computing power is
24:41needed for a neural network, then what
24:43for? You’re not allowed to use
24:45autopilot anyway. And if it’s not for
24:48some neural network, then it turns out
24:49the marketers have nothing to say about
24:51the car, so now you’re going to
24:53advertise the processor. I think that
24:56instead of 2,560 it would be better to
24:59just have one V8. Not 2,560 V8s. Just
25:04one would be enough. Maybe there would
25:06be one V8. Then the Lixiang audience
25:09would understand that excitement
25:12doesn't just come from Li, or TOPS, or,
25:15you know, my Nvidia GeForce
25:17something-or-other. What a genius idea.
25:21If they are mining Bitcoin,
25:25possibly.
25:26You buy a car, pay for the processor,
25:28and the Bitcoin goes to the Chinese.
25:30You buy a car, come to Moscow, get a
25:32job as a business-class taxi driver,
25:33and not only are you driving, but the
25:35car is also making Bitcoin. Then it’s
25:37top value for the money. And this is a
25:39different brand. Excuse me. The head of
25:43Toyota will unexpectedly step down from
25:46his post. No joke. The news feeds came
25:49out saying, "Oh, wow, something’s
25:51happening, we don’t understand what,"
25:53and a bunch of conspiracy theories
25:55about it. What actually happened? CEO
25:58Koji Sato. This person is being
26:01replaced by this person, Kento Sato.
26:05Good thing Kento is bald, because
26:06frankly, I could have gotten them mixed
26:08up, because if you just put a hairstyle
26:10on him, they’re basically the same
26:12person. Anyway, in terms of positions,
26:15the CEO is being replaced by the CFO.
26:17The problem is this. Who is Koji Sato?
26:19The CEO. He’s been in the position
26:20for 3 years. That is very short for
26:22Toyota, because, well, Toyota are
26:24traditional guys. They don’t change
26:26important people like they’re socks.
26:27Especially if they’re effective. And
26:30Koji Sato is a very reasonable and
26:32effective leader, because we just open
26:34the Toyota stock chart and everything
26:36is wonderful there, dividends are being
26:38paid, and the 2025 report is
26:40record-breaking. We have production
26:42records, but they are removing the
26:44leader.
26:44He’s the one who said that everything
26:46would be GR now, everything would be
26:47racing-oriented. Toyota will be...but
26:49that’s not why. From the company's
26:51point of view, they aren't explaining
26:52it at all. He isn't being thrown out on
26:54the street, he’s moving on to handle
26:56some, well, internal processes. And
26:58within Toyota throughout 2025, there is
27:01, actually, well, not exactly a scandal
27:03, but many investors and economists are
27:06outraged. What's the core issue? Toyota
27:08isn't just an automaker. Toyota is, in
27:11fact, well, essentially a small country
27:13within a country, because they also
27:15have Toyota Industries, which is, well,
27:16like heavy industry. They have a
27:19developer, in short, they have their
27:21own construction company, because again
27:23, well, Toyota City doesn't exist for
27:24nothing.
27:25What? Toyota City.
27:29We have, well, Stas, and the main meme
27:30is that it's Toyota City, and the rest
27:32are just cities. Well, like, it's just,
27:33I mean,
27:34I thought you made that up.
27:36No, I mean, it's a real city, well, I
27:37mean, Toyota has its own developer. If
27:39this is news to you, Toyota generally
27:41has everything. I mean, like, well,
27:44they really are this massive entity.
27:46And what we usually discuss with you
27:48all the time is Toyota the automaker.
27:50That is a separate company, because
27:51Toyota Industries is different. Damn,
27:53what's the developer called? Fujisan.
27:56Everything is called Fujisan. Aisin
27:58Corporation. Denso Corporation. These
28:01are also all, well, essentially Toyota
28:03subsidiaries. Oh, and they are
28:04currently going through some kind of
28:06strange internal restructuring. Why did
28:07I even bring up the developer and
28:09Toyota Industries? Because in the
28:11spring of 2025, they announced they
28:13would buy out Fujisan, which is strange
28:16and changes their internal logic and
28:18structure. And plus, private investors
28:21who had money in Industries are unhappy
28:23because they weren't consulted, and
28:25there's some kind of merger,
28:26acquisition, and the management, in
28:28short, is up to something. Toyota is
28:30definitely preparing for something, and
28:32there are certainly some inside moves
28:33happening. As far as I can tell from my
28:36couch, watching all their public
28:38statements, press conferences, and so
28:40on, the management has been saying for
28:43the last few years that our task now is
28:45to preserve production, keep jobs, and
28:47find a path between bans, the electric
28:50agenda, activist pressure, all that
28:52nonsense—to preserve production and
28:54not lose out in the moment. Now they
28:58have achieved their production goals.
29:00Everything there is fine. And the
29:02effective manager, who has led the
29:04company for the last 3 years and proven
29:05his worth, left to deal with some
29:07internal mergers, processes, and
29:08whatnot. It's just like—as we
29:11discussed in the Porsche scam
29:13documentary, where the story was that
29:15Volkswagen seemingly exists, it
29:16controls Porsche, but there's Porsche
29:18AG, there's Porsche SE, the Porsche
29:20family actually controls Volkswagen,
29:22and there’s this scheme, that scheme,
29:24and so on. The same kind of nonsense is
29:26being cooked up, more or less, over at
29:28Toyota. For now, all this sudden
29:31swapping of shares and buying things
29:32back from each other—Nobody
29:34understands the point of it yet, or
29:36where this ship is headed. But those
29:38guys definitely know something and are
29:40preparing for something. So, I
29:41personally will be watching more
29:43closely, and as soon as there is some
29:44information, I will bring it to you.
29:50Volvo Cars stock plunged 22%in one day
29:52after the financial report was
29:54published. And this news was spread all
29:57across our Russian media as if this is
29:59it. Look, look, we have a chart like
30:02this, it’s down 22%. And this is all
30:05because of why. It’s because Toyota
30:07published its financial report for the
30:09fourth quarter of '25. Not the
30:11expectations at all, not the net profit
30:13at all, everything there is just sad.
30:15And so, naturally, the stocks dipped.
30:18Although, if you look at the chart as a
30:19whole and look at the original Reuters
30:21article, well, the situation is a bit
30:22different. It's noticeable that after
30:25the Q3 '25 report was published, well,
30:27in the fall, they had the exact same
30:30jump in share price. Then we have the
30:32fourth quarter of '25, and here these
30:35guys come out. This is my personal
30:38opinion, that just some "hamsters"—I
30:40mean, some people who don't really
30:41understand the issue, or just some
30:43random investors, private individuals
30:45in the market—saw a very positive
30:46Volvo report saying they were doing
30:48great. Look, in Q3 '25 we earned
30:51significantly more money than expected.
30:54People saw these numbers and thought, "
30:56Oh, it's a great time to buy some Volvo
30:59stock, or some fund." They entered the
31:01position, then saw the current Q4
31:03report and exited the position, because
31:05the jump is absolutely identical.
31:0822%is a lot. It is.
31:11And it's not like
31:12you enter with a lot of money on this.
31:14Well, you're a complete imbecile,
31:16yeah,
31:16with a ton of money, or, well, what
31:18in the securities market is something
31:19like that. There’s so much
31:21back-and-forth volatility, and Volvo is
31:23—well, Volvo is actually a small
31:24automaker. And we’re talking about
31:26Volvo Cars stock—the passenger
31:28vehicle division—because there’s
31:30also Volvo Group, and then there’s
31:32Volvo Cars. I mean, it doesn't matter;
31:33they are different companies. The point
31:34is that this surge and record profit
31:36for Volvo in Q3 of 2025 was driven
31:38simply by the cancellation of the EV
31:40agenda, plus Trump's tariffs, and the
31:42end of subsidies. On electric vehicles.
31:46And back around August and September
31:472025, we discussed how everyone was
31:49scrambling, like sardines in a tin,
31:51trying to buy an EV before it was too
31:53late. And it was precisely because of
31:56those two news items that Volvo sold
31:57more cars than planned. But now,
31:59naturally, they aren’t even hitting
32:00their targets, and that’s why their
32:01share price is so disappointing. But
32:03the problem with Volvo Cars overall
32:04isn't that their stock is moving this
32:06way or that, because, strictly speaking
32:07, it makes no difference to the company
32:09how much its shares cost on the
32:10secondary market—what you’re seeing
32:12, these fluctuations and so on—that's
32:13the secondary market. This isn't the
32:15primary market; this is the secondary
32:16one. It's just people trading among
32:17themselves, like they do with cars. The
32:18problem is fundamental, and it's
32:20exactly the same as for every other
32:21European automaker. Their current
32:23models and the entire lineup are just
32:25not relevant. It’s, well, producing
32:27results that the automaker didn't
32:29anticipate. They are already gradually
32:31cutting production capacity. They are
32:32already gradually cutting staff. They
32:34laid off 3,000 people in 2025. And they
32:36don't have a platform, a model, or even
32:39a theory of where to go from here. Yes,
32:41obviously they were bought by Geely.
32:43Yes, obviously they’ll be bailed out
32:45if anything happens. But still, in the
32:47long run, holding a company that is
32:49bleeding cash is risky, especially if
32:51Geely starts having problems too, and
32:53since they are heavily invested in
32:55Zeekr and the EV agenda as a whole,
32:56they could also run into trouble at
32:58some point, because the Chinese market
33:00might also start shrinking with the
33:02removal of subsidies starting this year
33:04. In case you didn't know, China cut
33:07its subsidies from 2026 as well, and
33:09we're in for some very interesting
33:11times ahead. We wait and see. And
33:13returning to Volvo, from my point of
33:15view, things got much sadder when they
33:16went into modular engines and when they
33:18basically made the same two-liter
33:19gasoline and diesel modularly, where we
33:21essentially have only one two-liter
33:23engine for all our cars. You can just
33:24choose whether it's the diesel version
33:26or the gasoline version. And, say, in
33:28an XC60 these are both great engines,
33:30but the XC90 is sad with either one.
33:33But the main thing, which we started
33:35this episode with, is that the
33:36financial model doesn't add up. Exactly
33:38. Volvo hasn't yet come out and said we
33:40are writing off our losses. We, you
33:43know, are formally acknowledging that
33:44this ballast in our financial
33:45statements will not make us money. We
33:48still hope that we will get something
33:49out of this. We still hope that our
33:51EX60, EX40, and so on, will be needed
33:54by someone. We will sell this to
33:56someone else. Let's wait for the '26
33:58financial report. The vacuum cleaner
34:03manufacturer Dreame has launched a new
34:07SUV brand.
34:08These are those $ 3,000 vacuum cleaners
34:10. Nice.
34:11Well, there is a much more interesting
34:13piece of news, because, well, the story
34:15spreading through our media is that
34:17here is the presentation, here is the
34:19car. And it's literally, you know, even
34:22in your headlines and in the material,
34:25it's not an image, but a photo of a
34:28screen on which a render of some car is
34:31drawn.
34:31And is there a vacuum cleaner between
34:33the legs?
34:35It's not even a drawing of the key, you
34:37know, it's a photo of a monitor showing
34:39a render of a drawing of the key. What
34:41will definitely happen? Our cars suck
34:43like no other. What? You'll need to
34:45come up with some slogan like that and
34:47everything will be just fine. Damn,
34:49what an irony to give your woman such
34:51an SUV, if it ever comes out.
34:52It won't happen, it just won't.
34:54Moreover, they come out so confidently
34:56and say, look, there was this brand,
34:58iRobot; it turns out there is a vacuum
35:00war, by the way, between vacuum
35:01companies, and they are constantly
35:03vacuuming something between themselves.
35:06So, there was iRobot, which invented
35:08the whole "crawling" thing in general,
35:10and they somehow left the market, like
35:13Dreame, Xiaomi, and everyone else, and
35:15we defeated them all. Our vacuums suck
35:18better, they work better as vacuums,
35:19and everything is just wonderful. And
35:21iRobot, they are somehow, well, they
35:23are gone. So, you know, the same thing
35:25will happen with Tesla. They invented
35:27the product, they invented the market.
35:29Now they will collapse, and we will
35:31vacuum up behind them. I'm the CEO of
35:33the company, by the way. We'll take the
35:34market.
35:35and we’ll suck all the juice and all
35:37the money out of it. I wonder, if this
35:39machine runs out of battery, will it
35:41head to the base on its own, like,
35:42while you’re out running errands? And
35:45it's like, "N-no, bro, we're going back
35:47." Or maybe it’ll just, you know,
35:49pull into a parking spot.
35:50The side brush is jammed, it needs
35:53cleaning.
35:57And that's it for this episode. By the
36:00time you're watching this video, our
36:01main site is already up and running.
36:03Some actual analytics will be coming
36:05along in the near future too. We’ve
36:07had people writing to my personal
36:09socials saying, "Hey, where’s the
36:11video on what to buy in 2026?""
36:14Where’s the market analysis,
36:15where’s what we need?" It’s all
36:17coming, everything is already written
36:18and in the works. Stay tuned for
36:20updates. Yeah. Don't forget about our
36:23Telegram channel, and don't forget all
36:24our other communities where you are
36:26expected, loved, and sent kisses. And I
36:28do all of that personally. Well, in the
36:30Telegram channel for sure. Bye. I won't
36:35be playing guitar, just so you know.
36:37There was supposed to be a jingle here,
36:38but we ran out of money, so the guys
36:40just went like this. Clippity-clop.
36:44Just so you’re in the loop.

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