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Expected Value of the First 5 One Piece TCG Sets: Should You Buy? Should You Rip? — Transcript

by One Piece of Insight · 5,073 words · 720 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePieceInsight.
  2. 0:03In today's video, we will be looking at
  3. 0:04the expected value, that is, how many
  4. 0:07dollars worth of cards you would expect
  5. 0:09to open out of a booster case of the
  6. 0:11first five sets that were ever printed.
  7. 0:13And that includes both OP-01 white
  8. 0:14bottoms and blue bottoms so that we can
  9. 0:16get to the bottom of should we be buying
  10. 0:18these boxes, should we be opening them.
  11. 0:21So with that, let's jump right in. So
  12. 0:22the first question is, why look at
  13. 0:24expected value at all? So expected value
  14. 0:26tells us if we were to open a case of
  15. 0:28cards, approximately how many dollars
  16. 0:30worth of value we would get from opening
  17. 0:33that case. So why is that information
  18. 0:34useful? Well, we can figure out which
  19. 0:36boxes are better to open and which ones
  20. 0:38are worse to open. We're going to do
  21. 0:39that. It also helps you to evaluate
  22. 0:42current prices so you can compare sets
  23. 0:44against each other to see which ones are
  24. 0:45maybe overvalued or undervalued based on
  25. 0:48their box price compared to the contents
  26. 0:49inside. And finally, it allows you to
  27. 0:51predict future prices, right? If we can
  28. 0:53estimate what the insides of a box are
  29. 0:56going to cost, that can help us to set
  30. 0:58what we think a fair price should be for
  31. 0:59that booster box. We're not going to do
  32. 1:01that today, but that is something that
  33. 1:02you can potentially do as well. For this
  34. 1:04video, we're going to be looking at the
  35. 1:06six oldest booster box cases. So that's
  36. 1:08OP-01 blue bottoms, OP-01 white bottoms,
  37. 1:10OP-02, OP-03, OP-04, and OP-05. I'm
  38. 1:15going to be giving a scale of one to
  39. 1:17five stars on whether or not I think the
  40. 1:19boxes are a buy at their current price
  41. 1:21and whether or not I think they're a
  42. 1:23good idea to rip. I want to say up
  43. 1:25front,
  44. 1:27ripping any of these boxes is going to
  45. 1:30typically result in losing money. So if
  46. 1:33something is a three-star rip, that
  47. 1:35doesn't mean that I'm recommending that
  48. 1:36you rip it. I'm just saying that if you
  49. 1:38were going to rip something, this might
  50. 1:40be better to look at than something that
  51. 1:42is a one- or a two-star rip. So again,
  52. 1:46this isn't financial advice on what to
  53. 1:47buy or what to rip, but I really want
  54. 1:49you to keep in mind that when you rip
  55. 1:51things, typically you're going to lose.
  56. 1:53You should only do it if you're getting
  57. 1:54more fun back than you expect to lose in
  58. 1:57the value of the box. So, we're going to
  59. 1:59start from the cheapest sets to the most
  60. 2:00expensive sets. So, first up we have
  61. 2:03OP04 with a box price of $502
  62. 2:06and $6,024
  63. 2:08for a case. So, the cards that are doing
  64. 2:09the most to contribute to the value of
  65. 2:11OP04 are of course the SPs led by the
  66. 2:14Boa Hancock. Um the average SP in this
  67. 2:17box is $274, so that adds $549
  68. 2:21uh in expected value to the case. Then
  69. 2:24you have the Sabo Manga, which is one of
  70. 2:26the cheapest Mangas that we've gotten uh
  71. 2:28at pull rate of one in three that adds
  72. 2:30$217 to the expected value. And then
  73. 2:33finally, we have the leaders in this
  74. 2:34set, which is headlined by the Vivi
  75. 2:36leader, an average price of $45 for in a
  76. 2:39case, $180 added to the expected value.
  77. 2:42So, the total result here is that we
  78. 2:43have an expected value of $1,278
  79. 2:47and an expected value percent of 21%.
  80. 2:50This is actually one of the lowest
  81. 2:52amounts that we'll see in a case today.
  82. 2:54Um and so, for that reason, I'm going to
  83. 2:57give this two stars to rip. It's not the
  84. 3:00absolute worst, so I'm going to save one
  85. 3:02star for the absolute worst, but you
  86. 3:04really don't want to rip this box. I
  87. 3:06would only rip this if your plan is to
  88. 3:08lose almost all of your money and you're
  89. 3:10totally fine with that. There are no big
  90. 3:12chases that are going to make your money
  91. 3:14back even if you hit the Boa, which is
  92. 3:16the biggest chase, even if it's like a
  93. 3:18BGS 10, chances are you're still losing
  94. 3:20money on opening a case. So, I don't
  95. 3:22recommend. In terms of whether to buy,
  96. 3:24you know, this is a fairly expensive box
  97. 3:26and there's certainly are other boxes in
  98. 3:28the One Piece TCG that are less
  99. 3:31expensive and have a higher expected
  100. 3:33value percentage.
  101. 3:35But, because it is a little bit on the
  102. 3:37older side, I'm not going to completely
  103. 3:39discount the fact that maybe there is a
  104. 3:40premium associated with being older and
  105. 3:43having a slightly smaller print run than
  106. 3:44some of the modern sets. Because of
  107. 3:46that, I'm going to give it a two star
  108. 3:47that I would only buy it if you're okay
  109. 3:48with overpaying. So, in terms of where
  110. 3:50this falls among the booster cases,
  111. 3:53right now it's in first place cuz it's
  112. 3:54the only one we have. Okay, so let's
  113. 3:56talk about OP-03. So, OP-03 is very
  114. 3:58similar to OP-04 in a lot of ways.
  115. 4:00Um we have a box price of $575. We have
  116. 4:03a case price of $6,900.
  117. 4:06One thing you'll notice about OP-03 is
  118. 4:08that in terms of adding value to the
  119. 4:09case, it's pretty balanced across its
  120. 4:12different categories. You know, you have
  121. 4:13the Sogeking manga valued at around
  122. 4:15$900, adding about $300 to the case. You
  123. 4:19have the SPs uh in this set which are
  124. 4:22less expensive, but they're still adding
  125. 4:24$297.
  126. 4:25And then finally, you have the leader
  127. 4:26cards with an average price of $73 that
  128. 4:29are adding $292
  129. 4:31to the case. So, if you did open a case
  130. 4:33of this, your average case would
  131. 4:35probably be a little bit closer to the
  132. 4:36expected value uh than OP-04 where it's
  133. 4:39a little bit more high-risk,
  134. 4:41high-reward. So, in terms of how this
  135. 4:42translates into the actual expected
  136. 4:44value for the case, the total expected
  137. 4:46value for this is $1,221,
  138. 4:49which is less than OP-04 despite the
  139. 4:51fact this box is actually more expensive
  140. 4:54than OP-04, leading to an expected value
  141. 4:57of only 18%.
  142. 4:59Would I buy this?
  143. 5:01I wouldn't buy this. I don't really like
  144. 5:03it at the current price to be honest. I
  145. 5:05was torn about whether I was going to
  146. 5:07put it in a one-star category or a
  147. 5:08two-star. I ultimately landed on the
  148. 5:11two-star because I think it's kind of
  149. 5:13similar to OP-04 and it's maybe a little
  150. 5:15bit older, so maybe there should be a
  151. 5:17little bit more of a premium. Although,
  152. 5:19our estimates suggest that there's about
  153. 5:21the same amount of OP-03 and OP-04 out
  154. 5:24there, so I don't really think that
  155. 5:25there should be much of a premium for
  156. 5:27OP-03. In terms of whether rip, this is
  157. 5:29destined to lose money. This is like one
  158. 5:31of the worst things that I've looked at
  159. 5:32that you could possibly rip. Do not rip
  160. 5:34this under basically any circumstances.
  161. 5:37You're going to lose the vast majority
  162. 5:39>> [laughter]
  163. 5:40>> of what you spent on your case. So, in
  164. 5:43terms of where this falls uh both in
  165. 5:45terms of total value and expected value
  166. 5:47percentage, it's below O P O 4. Next up
  167. 5:49on the most expensive is O P O 2.
  168. 5:52Uh box price of $598 and a case price of
  169. 5:56$7,176.
  170. 5:59Now, I'll remind you that unlike O P O 3
  171. 6:01and O P O 4 that came before, this set
  172. 6:03actually did not have SPs. O P O 3 was
  173. 6:05the first set that had SPs. So, if we
  174. 6:07look at what's actually contributing to
  175. 6:08the value of O P O 2, for starters, we
  176. 6:11got to talk about the Ace Manga. So, of
  177. 6:13the sets that we've looked at so far,
  178. 6:15the Ace Manga is by far the most
  179. 6:16expensive Manga and is contributing by
  180. 6:18far the most amount to the total case
  181. 6:20value. So, we have $561 in this case
  182. 6:24coming from the Ace Manga. Uh the second
  183. 6:26most expensive category in this, again,
  184. 6:27because they don't have SPs, uh are
  185. 6:29actually the alt arts at $18 for an
  186. 6:32average alt art. Uh with 20 that you're
  187. 6:34likely to get in a case, that's an EV of
  188. 6:37uh $360 added to the total case EV.
  189. 6:40Those aren't like wildly expensive alt
  190. 6:42arts, but there are some decently priced
  191. 6:43ones, mostly because this set is kind of
  192. 6:45on the old side.
  193. 6:47Uh and then finally, we have our leaders
  194. 6:49with an average price of $83. Uh you're
  195. 6:51going to get four in a case, so that's
  196. 6:52$332
  197. 6:55uh added to the expected value. The
  198. 6:57leaders in this set are actually pretty
  199. 6:59expensive. So, what I find interesting
  200. 7:01about this is that even though there are
  201. 7:02no SPs in the set,
  202. 7:04uh the value of the other cards actually
  203. 7:07make up for the loss of SPs. When we
  204. 7:09look at the total expected value for
  205. 7:11this box, it's $1,555,
  206. 7:14which is above the other ones that we've
  207. 7:16so far and has an expected value
  208. 7:18percentage of 22%, which again, is above
  209. 7:21the other ones we've looked at so far,
  210. 7:23even though this is a more expensive
  211. 7:25box. So, there's a pretty significant
  212. 7:26difference between uh O3 and O4 and what
  213. 7:30we're looking at here with O P O 2. Does
  214. 7:31that mean I think it's an amazing deal?
  215. 7:33I don't. While I think there's arguably
  216. 7:35a premium for things that come first,
  217. 7:38I don't see that much of a premium for a
  218. 7:39coming second. Again, our estimates of
  219. 7:42uh the number of cases opened suggests
  220. 7:45there's a similar amount of product that
  221. 7:47was printed for OP02, OP03, and OP04.
  222. 7:50So, I don't see a tremendous premium
  223. 7:51there. So, I guess I would say I would
  224. 7:53rather have this box at this price than
  225. 7:56I would have OP03 or OP04.
  226. 7:59But, it's not by a ton. And I certainly
  227. 8:01would not go out and buy this. I still
  228. 8:02think this is probably overpriced for
  229. 8:04what you're getting.
  230. 8:06In terms of whether to rip, well, I
  231. 8:07certainly wouldn't rip it, and you're
  232. 8:09definitely going to lose your money.
  233. 8:10But, of the three things we've looked at
  234. 8:11so far, I think this is probably the
  235. 8:13number one choice to rip. So, in terms
  236. 8:16of how it slots in with the boxes we've
  237. 8:17looked at, this is going to be number
  238. 8:19one right now at a 22% expected value.
  239. 8:22Moving on to the really interesting
  240. 8:24boxes. So, first up we have OP05, which
  241. 8:27has an average box price of $958.
  242. 8:30Now, big caveat here, I ran this
  243. 8:32analysis a couple weeks ago, and so some
  244. 8:34of these numbers may be a tiny bit
  245. 8:36outdated. I think the overall message is
  246. 8:38the same, but if you're looking at this
  247. 8:39thinking, you know, you can't get OP05
  248. 8:42for $958 anymore, I hear you. I don't
  249. 8:46think it changes things too much, but I
  250. 8:48wanted to flag that this is a little bit
  251. 8:49older data.
  252. 8:51Um in terms of a case price, when I
  253. 8:52looked at it, it was $11,500 for a case.
  254. 8:55So, the things that are adding the most
  255. 8:56value to OP05, the first thing you'll
  256. 8:59notice here is that the numbers are way,
  257. 9:00way, way, way bigger. This is the first
  258. 9:02set where we have any actual chase cards
  259. 9:05that are really expensive uh to pull up
  260. 9:07this total value. So, first you have
  261. 9:09three mangas in this set, and the mangas
  262. 9:11have an average price of $3,716
  263. 9:15being pulled up massively by the value
  264. 9:17of the Gear 5 Luffy manga. And that adds
  265. 9:19$1,239
  266. 9:22to the expected value of the box.
  267. 9:24The biggest one here though is actually
  268. 9:25the Oda signature, which has an
  269. 9:27estimated pull rate of one in six and is
  270. 9:29valued at around $8,000 raw for a total
  271. 9:32EV of $1,333
  272. 9:35added to the case.
  273. 9:37And then finally, you have SPs here that
  274. 9:39are higher valued than the SPs in OPO 3
  275. 9:41or OPO 4. Again, you're getting two of
  276. 9:43them, so that's adding $422 to the total
  277. 9:46value of the case. If we look at the
  278. 9:48expected value for OPO 5, it is by far
  279. 9:51the biggest number that we've looked at
  280. 9:52so far. It is more than double the
  281. 9:54second best box that we've looked at at
  282. 9:56$3,693.
  283. 9:58And even though these boxes are
  284. 10:00significantly more expensive than the
  285. 10:02ones we've looked at so far, this still
  286. 10:04has a significantly better EV percentage
  287. 10:05than the other boxes coming in at 32%.
  288. 10:08So, in terms of whether to buy OPO 5, I
  289. 10:11actually think these numbers look pretty
  290. 10:13good. Even though it's very expensive, I
  291. 10:15don't think that this is wildly
  292. 10:17overpriced based on the cards that you
  293. 10:19get inside. And in addition to the cards
  294. 10:21that you get inside, I actually do think
  295. 10:23that there's an argument for OPO 5
  296. 10:25having a higher booster box premium
  297. 10:27because of how iconic the set is. One of
  298. 10:29the things that we've seen in Pokémon is
  299. 10:31that box prices often outgrow the value
  300. 10:34of the cards inside because the boxes
  301. 10:35themselves become a collectible. And so
  302. 10:38when I'm looking at what I think the
  303. 10:39value of a box should be, I'm
  304. 10:41considering both how much is the value
  305. 10:43of the cards inside and now also how
  306. 10:45iconic is the set. How great is the box
  307. 10:48art, right? How much of a premium are
  308. 10:50people going to pay to keep this sealed
  309. 10:52on their shelf? And unlike two, three,
  310. 10:54and four, I do think OPO 5 actually has
  311. 10:57that special sauce that is going to
  312. 10:59command a premium over other sets uh
  313. 11:02separate from the amount of value of
  314. 11:03cards inside. So, I was a little bit
  315. 11:05surprised when I did this analysis. I
  316. 11:06thought that I was going to think the
  317. 11:08box was still kind of overpriced given
  318. 11:09how expensive it is, but I actually
  319. 11:11think it's pretty fair uh given its
  320. 11:13long-term potential and the value of the
  321. 11:15cards that are already inside.
  322. 11:17In terms of whether to rip, again, I
  323. 11:19don't recommend ripping OPO 5, but of
  324. 11:21all the boxes that we've looked at so
  325. 11:23far, this is the only one that I can
  326. 11:24make any type of upside case for. There
  327. 11:28is a universe where you could possibly
  328. 11:30open a case
  329. 11:32uh
  330. 11:32that [laughter]
  331. 11:33provides the value that you spent on it.
  332. 11:36Um you know, there are cards in this set
  333. 11:38that are worth a lot of money, unlike
  334. 11:39the other sets that we've looked at so
  335. 11:41far. So, while I don't recommend ripping
  336. 11:43this at all, if you were going to rip
  337. 11:45something of the ones we've looked at so
  338. 11:46far, this is what you're probably going
  339. 11:48to get your best return on. So, with its
  340. 11:50expected value of 32% OP-05 moves into
  341. 11:53the first slot. Now, we're getting into
  342. 11:55what I think are the really interesting
  343. 11:56stuff. So, OP-01 white bottoms. The
  344. 11:59second most expensive of the first five
  345. 12:01sets. And actually the second most
  346. 12:03expensive set that we've ever had in One
  347. 12:05Piece. A box price of $1,750
  348. 12:09and a case price of $21,000. Now, if
  349. 12:11you're watching this and you don't know
  350. 12:12what a white bottom is, let me give you
  351. 12:14a quick explanation. When OP-01 first
  352. 12:16came out, the boxes had blue bottoms.
  353. 12:19And in those boxes had cards that were
  354. 12:22eventually errata'd. And when they were
  355. 12:24reprinted, they reprinted the boxes with
  356. 12:27errata'd cards and with white bottoms.
  357. 12:29And so, you essentially have like a
  358. 12:30first edition set for OP-01, those are
  359. 12:33the blue bottoms, and an unlimited set
  360. 12:35if you're comparing it to Pokémon, and
  361. 12:36those are the white bottoms.
  362. 12:38From what I can tell, the print runs of
  363. 12:40the blue bottoms and the white bottoms
  364. 12:42appear to be somewhat similar. So,
  365. 12:45primarily the differences between the
  366. 12:47white bottoms and the blue bottoms are
  367. 12:49number one, blue bottoms are considered
  368. 12:50to be first edition, but also they have
  369. 12:52these pre-errata cards and collectors
  370. 12:55will pay a premium for the pre-errata
  371. 12:57versus the errata'd versions of the
  372. 12:59cards. So, in terms of what's adding
  373. 13:01value to OP-01, so as we talked about
  374. 13:03with OP-02, there were no SPs in this
  375. 13:05set. So, the thing that's actually
  376. 13:06adding the most value, and I thought
  377. 13:08this was fascinating, is the alt arts.
  378. 13:10This is primarily because of the Nami
  379. 13:13being worth over $400. You also have the
  380. 13:15Luffy being worth, you know, almost
  381. 13:17$150. So, the average price of an alt
  382. 13:20art in this set is $64. And because
  383. 13:23you're getting 20 of them, that's adding
  384. 13:24$1,278
  385. 13:27to the case expected value.
  386. 13:29Next up we have the leaders. There are
  387. 13:30some very expensive leaders in this set.
  388. 13:32Luffy is over 800 dollars, the Zoro's
  389. 13:35over 550 dollars, the Law's 400 to 450
  390. 13:38dollars. So the average leader in this
  391. 13:40set is 302 dollars. And since you're
  392. 13:42getting four of those, that's adding
  393. 13:441,209
  394. 13:46dollars to the overall set value.
  395. 13:49And then finally, in last place, we
  396. 13:51actually have the Shanks manga, which
  397. 13:53although it is the second most expensive
  398. 13:55manga we've looked at so far, is
  399. 13:56actually adding the third most value to
  400. 13:58this set at only 710 dollars. So if we
  401. 14:01look at how all of that translates to
  402. 14:02total expected value, we have 3,903
  403. 14:07dollars total value for an expected
  404. 14:09value percentage of 19%. Right off the
  405. 14:11bat, I'll tell you that I expected that
  406. 14:13OP-05 would have a much higher total
  407. 14:15expected value than the OP-01 white
  408. 14:18bottoms. And that I was going to have to
  409. 14:20come in here and tell you that well,
  410. 14:21even though the EV on this set's really,
  411. 14:22really low, you know, because it's old,
  412. 14:25like that's how we're thinking about
  413. 14:26pricing it. That's of course still true,
  414. 14:28but I was very surprised that its EV was
  415. 14:31above OP-05. So that was a really
  416. 14:33interesting takeaway from this analysis
  417. 14:35for me.
  418. 14:36Because the boxes are so expensive, the
  419. 14:38EV percentage is still only 19%, but
  420. 14:42that's not the worst that we've seen.
  421. 14:44>> [laughter]
  422. 14:44>> Even though, like OP-05, there are other
  423. 14:46arguments for why you would want to have
  424. 14:48this box or why this box would be more
  425. 14:49expensive than the contents inside.
  426. 14:52So in terms of whether I would buy this,
  427. 14:55I still find this box very hard to price
  428. 14:57because a lot of its value is the fact
  429. 15:00that it's first, but also on the other
  430. 15:02hand,
  431. 15:03because it's the second version of
  432. 15:05OP-01, it's not like the true first set,
  433. 15:08right? I'm somewhere between,
  434. 15:10you know, this is a two-star, maybe it's
  435. 15:12a little bit overpriced, and this being
  436. 15:15a three-star reasonable entry point
  437. 15:17to purchase this at. Again, the expected
  438. 15:20value is low, but it's not the lowest
  439. 15:22we've seen. I would rather have this box
  440. 15:24at this price, I think, than OP02, 3, or
  441. 15:274. But, because it's so difficult to put
  442. 15:29a finger on what the price should
  443. 15:30actually be, it's hard for me to
  444. 15:32recommend it any more than that.
  445. 15:34In terms of whether you should open
  446. 15:35this, no, you should definitely not open
  447. 15:36this. It is great that the expected
  448. 15:39value is a lot more than I expected it
  449. 15:41to be, but still, at a case price of
  450. 15:44$21,000, there is absolutely no way
  451. 15:48that you're going to recuperate that
  452. 15:50cost because there are no huge chases in
  453. 15:53the white bottom booster boxes. Even if
  454. 15:55you got lucky and you pulled the Luffy
  455. 15:57and the Zoro leaders and the Law leader
  456. 16:00and you pulled, you know, the Nami and
  457. 16:02the Zoro and the Luffy alt arts, it's
  458. 16:04never going to equal $21,000. So, under
  459. 16:06no circumstances should you open this,
  460. 16:09unless you're actively trying to set
  461. 16:11money on fire. So, even with it being
  462. 16:12the most expensive box we've looked at
  463. 16:14so far, this one's going to slot in at
  464. 16:16fourth at still having a higher expected
  465. 16:18value percentage than OP03, which I
  466. 16:20think speaks really, really badly for
  467. 16:23OP03
  468. 16:24and its current price. Finally, we have
  469. 16:27the big boy, the OP01 blue bottom, at an
  470. 16:31average box price of $6100
  471. 16:33and a case price of $73,200.
  472. 16:36Now, if you're looking at this and
  473. 16:37thinking $6100, you can find boxes on
  474. 16:40eBay for, you know, $5600, why are you
  475. 16:43using that price?
  476. 16:45The reason I'm using that price is
  477. 16:46because we just had a sealed case sell
  478. 16:49at Golden
  479. 16:50for $73,200.
  480. 16:53And because we are looking at the case
  481. 16:55value, which assumes the fixed hits that
  482. 16:58you're going to get in a case,
  483. 17:00I wanted to use a sealed case as opposed
  484. 17:01to individual boxes, which are going to
  485. 17:04be more hit or miss, right? Because it's
  486. 17:06possible that somebody opened a case,
  487. 17:08they took all the good boxes out and are
  488. 17:10leaving you with just the the weak alt
  489. 17:12art two hit boxes, right? So, that's why
  490. 17:14we're using the case price for this. In
  491. 17:16terms of what is adding value to the
  492. 17:18boxes, it's exactly the same story as
  493. 17:21the white bottoms except with different
  494. 17:23values because now we have the
  495. 17:25pre-errata versions to consider that are
  496. 17:28going to massively increase the price of
  497. 17:29some of these cards. In first place, we
  498. 17:31have the alt arts at an average price of
  499. 17:34$131
  500. 17:36bringing in $2,625.
  501. 17:39So, this is about twice what the alt
  502. 17:41arts were bringing to the table in the
  503. 17:43white bottom booster boxes. So, keep in
  504. 17:46mind not every alt art has an errata,
  505. 17:48not every leader has an errata, so there
  506. 17:50are just a few that are dramatically
  507. 17:53bringing up the prices of these because
  508. 17:54they're significantly more expensive.
  509. 17:56There are some lower level alt arts
  510. 17:58that, you know, might have been 15 bucks
  511. 18:01in the white bottoms but are now 150
  512. 18:03bucks in the blue bottoms because of the
  513. 18:05pre-errata collector premium. And so,
  514. 18:07that's why this is going up so much even
  515. 18:09though not every card is pre-errata.
  516. 18:12Same thing with the leader here. You
  517. 18:14know, the leader prices go up to $642.
  518. 18:17This is being pulled up a lot by the
  519. 18:18pre-errata Luffy leader, which is the
  520. 18:20biggest chase that you can hit in the
  521. 18:22blue bottom.
  522. 18:23It's actually not that hard to pull
  523. 18:25comparatively. You know, there were
  524. 18:27eight leaders and you're getting four,
  525. 18:28so it's a 50% chance of whether you're
  526. 18:30going to get one. But the truth is is
  527. 18:32when you're paying $73,000
  528. 18:34for a case, having a 50% chance of
  529. 18:36hitting an expensive card
  530. 18:38is just not really that helpful anymore.
  531. 18:39There's no way that you could possibly
  532. 18:41recuperate the value back that you spent
  533. 18:44on the booster boxes. But the leaders
  534. 18:46here are adding $2,567
  535. 18:49to the total value. And then finally, we
  536. 18:51have the Shanks, which is exactly the
  537. 18:53same as OP01 because there wasn't a
  538. 18:55pre-errata version adding $710 to the
  539. 18:58value. So, in terms of EV, the OP01 blue
  540. 19:01bottoms have $7,465
  541. 19:04worth of cards in an average case. I'll
  542. 19:07be honest, this is much higher than I
  543. 19:09was expecting. I I not expect this to be
  544. 19:11the highest of all the booster boxes.
  545. 19:13Maybe I should have, but I'm a little
  546. 19:14bit surprised at how strong the
  547. 19:16performance is. Now, that said, despite
  548. 19:18that fact, because the case is so
  549. 19:20expensive, it's EV percentage is still
  550. 19:23only 10%, which is by far the worst of
  551. 19:27any that we've looked at. Now, I would
  552. 19:29have guessed that this would have been
  553. 19:30the worst just given how expensive it
  554. 19:32is, but I am somewhat pleasantly
  555. 19:34surprised that there is more value in
  556. 19:37these boxes uh than I would have
  557. 19:38guessed. And primarily the reason for
  558. 19:41that is because you have like super
  559. 19:43rares and alt arts that have pre-errata
  560. 19:45versions that are significantly more
  561. 19:47expensive than their errata versions,
  562. 19:49not just the leaders, which is what most
  563. 19:51people think about, and that ends up
  564. 19:53contributing a lot of value to the
  565. 19:54overall set.
  566. 19:56Let's start with the easy one. Would I
  567. 19:57rip it? Under no circumstances. There's
  568. 20:00absolutely no reason to ever rip this
  569. 20:02ever. Just do not do it. Like, unless
  570. 20:04you are the Joker and you are trying to
  571. 20:06light money on fire because you think
  572. 20:08it's fun, do not open one of these
  573. 20:10boxes. They're worth so much more
  574. 20:11sealed. Now, the hard question.
  575. 20:13What is the right price for this box?
  576. 20:17I don't know. So, for starters, let's
  577. 20:19just talk about the EV percentage,
  578. 20:21right? So, you have OP01 white bottoms
  579. 20:23that had a little bit more than half the
  580. 20:26value of the blue bottoms, and yet the
  581. 20:28blue bottoms are like a little bit less
  582. 20:30than four times as expensive as the
  583. 20:32white bottoms, right? If you're just
  584. 20:34looking at EV percentage, this would
  585. 20:36suggest that the blue bottoms should be
  586. 20:38about twice as expensive as the white
  587. 20:39bottoms. So, at their current price,
  588. 20:41that would suggest that the blue bottoms
  589. 20:43are wildly overpriced.
  590. 20:45But, the problem is is that there is
  591. 20:47definitely a premium for the blue
  592. 20:48bottoms being the first edition, right?
  593. 20:52How do we quantify what that premium
  594. 20:54should be? I can frankly also see an
  595. 20:56argument in the opposite direction that
  596. 20:58says that, well, there's a much greater
  597. 21:00premium for the first edition than there
  598. 21:03is for the unlimited edition. And so,
  599. 21:06that means that the white bottoms are
  600. 21:08actually overpriced
  601. 21:10because they're so vastly inferior to
  602. 21:12the blue bottoms in terms of like
  603. 21:14collector desirability.
  604. 21:16I understand that. I will say I do think
  605. 21:18there's a pretty big difference here
  606. 21:19between the first edition Pokémon and
  607. 21:22the unlimited Pokémon in that we know
  608. 21:24that the unlimited set had like
  609. 21:27a way larger print run than the first
  610. 21:30edition. Whereas here, you have a
  611. 21:31distinction between errata and
  612. 21:33pre-errata.
  613. 21:34But, the print runs of each are pretty
  614. 21:37equivalent. So, it's not clear that like
  615. 21:38the pre-errata is significantly rarer
  616. 21:41than the post-errata. I will also say in
  617. 21:43terms of collectibility, I think there's
  618. 21:45a pretty big difference between
  619. 21:47something that has like a first edition
  620. 21:49stamp on it versus having a different
  621. 21:52color bottom to the booster. So,
  622. 21:55again, I'm not sure that I think I
  623. 21:57understand what the right price should
  624. 21:58be. I don't own a white bottom or a blue
  625. 22:00bottom. You know, I see the argument for
  626. 22:02why they should be valuable, but they're
  627. 22:04personally beyond my wrist tolerance.
  628. 22:06So, in terms of would I buy this? The
  629. 22:08answer for me is no, but the answer for
  630. 22:10you might be different. And, you know,
  631. 22:12in terms of how fairly valued I think it
  632. 22:14is, I think it's somewhere between a two
  633. 22:16and a three star in sort of the same
  634. 22:18vein as the OP01 white bottoms. I think
  635. 22:22there's a universe where they're both
  636. 22:23overpriced. I think there's a universe
  637. 22:25where one is overpriced relative to the
  638. 22:27other and the other is underpriced. And,
  639. 22:29I think there's a universe where both of
  640. 22:31them are underpriced, although that one
  641. 22:33feels the least likely to me, which is
  642. 22:35why I'm putting it in the two to three
  643. 22:36star category. So, again, I see the high
  644. 22:39upside to this, but I also think there's
  645. 22:41a tremendous amount of risk because it's
  646. 22:42so difficult to price. While I don't
  647. 22:44think this is a shock, the OP01 blue
  648. 22:46bottoms are going to slot into the last
  649. 22:48position when it comes to overall
  650. 22:50expected value percentage at only 10%.
  651. 22:53So, if we look at number one, we had an
  652. 22:54expected value of 32% and number six, an
  653. 22:58expected value of of 10% with everything
  654. 23:01else falling in the middle. You know,
  655. 23:03for the most part these boxes are
  656. 23:05grouped pretty closely. You know, other
  657. 23:06than the 10 and the 32, everything else
  658. 23:08was between like
  659. 23:0918 and 22. So, I think that reflects a
  660. 23:13little bit of an age premium while also
  661. 23:14saying that there has to be at least
  662. 23:16some value of the cards inside. This
  663. 23:18isn't Pokémon where an Evolving Skies
  664. 23:20booster box can have a 5% expected
  665. 23:23value, right? We have to care about the
  666. 23:25cards inside at least a little even if
  667. 23:27we are putting a premium for age. All of
  668. 23:29that said, in terms of my personal
  669. 23:31rankings,
  670. 23:33my clear number one is OP-05. For me,
  671. 23:35you're getting one of the most iconic
  672. 23:37sets and you're getting the best value
  673. 23:39cards inside. That feels like a
  674. 23:41no-brainer to me. I feel like it has a
  675. 23:43much stronger case for why it's valued
  676. 23:45the way that it currently is as well as
  677. 23:47having upside potential.
  678. 23:49In second place, I would personally put
  679. 23:51the white bottoms just because I feel
  680. 23:52like if there is a little bit of an
  681. 23:54imbalance, maybe it's that the blue
  682. 23:56bottoms are a little bit overpriced.
  683. 23:58Now, we have seen a pretty large
  684. 24:00correction in the booster boxes for blue
  685. 24:02bottoms, so maybe that has been a
  686. 24:04recognition
  687. 24:05that those were a little bit overpriced
  688. 24:07and they've moved into a more
  689. 24:08comfortable territory. So, this may not
  690. 24:10be true anymore.
  691. 24:11But, in terms of expected value, I think
  692. 24:13I like it a little bit better than the
  693. 24:14blue bottoms. But, I I have the blue
  694. 24:17bottoms as my number three because I
  695. 24:19think the argument which is better is
  696. 24:21pretty much personal opinion at this
  697. 24:22point. One thing I do feel is pretty
  698. 24:24objective, though, is that two, four,
  699. 24:27and three are definitely the worst ones
  700. 24:29to own with two being slightly better
  701. 24:32and then four being slightly better than
  702. 24:34three and three clearly being the worst.
  703. 24:36You know, again, I would not open any of
  704. 24:38these sets, but if I was going to buy
  705. 24:40one, I would buy OP-05 and the ones that
  706. 24:43I would be least likely to buy are
  707. 24:44OP-02, OP-04, and OP-03. That's all I
  708. 24:48have for today. I hope you found this
  709. 24:49helpful. As always, if you did, we would
  710. 24:51appreciate if you would like, comment,
  711. 24:53and if you haven't already subscribed.
  712. 24:55It helps us to get these videos out to
  713. 24:57more people. Also, we have our TCGPlayer
  714. 25:00affiliate link and our eBay affiliate
  715. 25:02link. If you're looking to purchase any
  716. 25:04type of card really, you know, we would
  717. 25:06get a commission off of that which helps
  718. 25:07us out a ton. So as always I appreciate
  719. 25:10your time and I will see you in the next
  720. 25:12one.

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