Expected Value of the First 5 One Piece TCG Sets: Should You Buy? Should You Rip? — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePieceInsight.
- 0:03In today's video, we will be looking at
- 0:04the expected value, that is, how many
- 0:07dollars worth of cards you would expect
- 0:09to open out of a booster case of the
- 0:11first five sets that were ever printed.
- 0:13And that includes both OP-01 white
- 0:14bottoms and blue bottoms so that we can
- 0:16get to the bottom of should we be buying
- 0:18these boxes, should we be opening them.
- 0:21So with that, let's jump right in. So
- 0:22the first question is, why look at
- 0:24expected value at all? So expected value
- 0:26tells us if we were to open a case of
- 0:28cards, approximately how many dollars
- 0:30worth of value we would get from opening
- 0:33that case. So why is that information
- 0:34useful? Well, we can figure out which
- 0:36boxes are better to open and which ones
- 0:38are worse to open. We're going to do
- 0:39that. It also helps you to evaluate
- 0:42current prices so you can compare sets
- 0:44against each other to see which ones are
- 0:45maybe overvalued or undervalued based on
- 0:48their box price compared to the contents
- 0:49inside. And finally, it allows you to
- 0:51predict future prices, right? If we can
- 0:53estimate what the insides of a box are
- 0:56going to cost, that can help us to set
- 0:58what we think a fair price should be for
- 0:59that booster box. We're not going to do
- 1:01that today, but that is something that
- 1:02you can potentially do as well. For this
- 1:04video, we're going to be looking at the
- 1:06six oldest booster box cases. So that's
- 1:08OP-01 blue bottoms, OP-01 white bottoms,
- 1:10OP-02, OP-03, OP-04, and OP-05. I'm
- 1:15going to be giving a scale of one to
- 1:17five stars on whether or not I think the
- 1:19boxes are a buy at their current price
- 1:21and whether or not I think they're a
- 1:23good idea to rip. I want to say up
- 1:25front,
- 1:27ripping any of these boxes is going to
- 1:30typically result in losing money. So if
- 1:33something is a three-star rip, that
- 1:35doesn't mean that I'm recommending that
- 1:36you rip it. I'm just saying that if you
- 1:38were going to rip something, this might
- 1:40be better to look at than something that
- 1:42is a one- or a two-star rip. So again,
- 1:46this isn't financial advice on what to
- 1:47buy or what to rip, but I really want
- 1:49you to keep in mind that when you rip
- 1:51things, typically you're going to lose.
- 1:53You should only do it if you're getting
- 1:54more fun back than you expect to lose in
- 1:57the value of the box. So, we're going to
- 1:59start from the cheapest sets to the most
- 2:00expensive sets. So, first up we have
- 2:03OP04 with a box price of $502
- 2:06and $6,024
- 2:08for a case. So, the cards that are doing
- 2:09the most to contribute to the value of
- 2:11OP04 are of course the SPs led by the
- 2:14Boa Hancock. Um the average SP in this
- 2:17box is $274, so that adds $549
- 2:21uh in expected value to the case. Then
- 2:24you have the Sabo Manga, which is one of
- 2:26the cheapest Mangas that we've gotten uh
- 2:28at pull rate of one in three that adds
- 2:30$217 to the expected value. And then
- 2:33finally, we have the leaders in this
- 2:34set, which is headlined by the Vivi
- 2:36leader, an average price of $45 for in a
- 2:39case, $180 added to the expected value.
- 2:42So, the total result here is that we
- 2:43have an expected value of $1,278
- 2:47and an expected value percent of 21%.
- 2:50This is actually one of the lowest
- 2:52amounts that we'll see in a case today.
- 2:54Um and so, for that reason, I'm going to
- 2:57give this two stars to rip. It's not the
- 3:00absolute worst, so I'm going to save one
- 3:02star for the absolute worst, but you
- 3:04really don't want to rip this box. I
- 3:06would only rip this if your plan is to
- 3:08lose almost all of your money and you're
- 3:10totally fine with that. There are no big
- 3:12chases that are going to make your money
- 3:14back even if you hit the Boa, which is
- 3:16the biggest chase, even if it's like a
- 3:18BGS 10, chances are you're still losing
- 3:20money on opening a case. So, I don't
- 3:22recommend. In terms of whether to buy,
- 3:24you know, this is a fairly expensive box
- 3:26and there's certainly are other boxes in
- 3:28the One Piece TCG that are less
- 3:31expensive and have a higher expected
- 3:33value percentage.
- 3:35But, because it is a little bit on the
- 3:37older side, I'm not going to completely
- 3:39discount the fact that maybe there is a
- 3:40premium associated with being older and
- 3:43having a slightly smaller print run than
- 3:44some of the modern sets. Because of
- 3:46that, I'm going to give it a two star
- 3:47that I would only buy it if you're okay
- 3:48with overpaying. So, in terms of where
- 3:50this falls among the booster cases,
- 3:53right now it's in first place cuz it's
- 3:54the only one we have. Okay, so let's
- 3:56talk about OP-03. So, OP-03 is very
- 3:58similar to OP-04 in a lot of ways.
- 4:00Um we have a box price of $575. We have
- 4:03a case price of $6,900.
- 4:06One thing you'll notice about OP-03 is
- 4:08that in terms of adding value to the
- 4:09case, it's pretty balanced across its
- 4:12different categories. You know, you have
- 4:13the Sogeking manga valued at around
- 4:15$900, adding about $300 to the case. You
- 4:19have the SPs uh in this set which are
- 4:22less expensive, but they're still adding
- 4:24$297.
- 4:25And then finally, you have the leader
- 4:26cards with an average price of $73 that
- 4:29are adding $292
- 4:31to the case. So, if you did open a case
- 4:33of this, your average case would
- 4:35probably be a little bit closer to the
- 4:36expected value uh than OP-04 where it's
- 4:39a little bit more high-risk,
- 4:41high-reward. So, in terms of how this
- 4:42translates into the actual expected
- 4:44value for the case, the total expected
- 4:46value for this is $1,221,
- 4:49which is less than OP-04 despite the
- 4:51fact this box is actually more expensive
- 4:54than OP-04, leading to an expected value
- 4:57of only 18%.
- 4:59Would I buy this?
- 5:01I wouldn't buy this. I don't really like
- 5:03it at the current price to be honest. I
- 5:05was torn about whether I was going to
- 5:07put it in a one-star category or a
- 5:08two-star. I ultimately landed on the
- 5:11two-star because I think it's kind of
- 5:13similar to OP-04 and it's maybe a little
- 5:15bit older, so maybe there should be a
- 5:17little bit more of a premium. Although,
- 5:19our estimates suggest that there's about
- 5:21the same amount of OP-03 and OP-04 out
- 5:24there, so I don't really think that
- 5:25there should be much of a premium for
- 5:27OP-03. In terms of whether rip, this is
- 5:29destined to lose money. This is like one
- 5:31of the worst things that I've looked at
- 5:32that you could possibly rip. Do not rip
- 5:34this under basically any circumstances.
- 5:37You're going to lose the vast majority
- 5:39>> [laughter]
- 5:40>> of what you spent on your case. So, in
- 5:43terms of where this falls uh both in
- 5:45terms of total value and expected value
- 5:47percentage, it's below O P O 4. Next up
- 5:49on the most expensive is O P O 2.
- 5:52Uh box price of $598 and a case price of
- 5:56$7,176.
- 5:59Now, I'll remind you that unlike O P O 3
- 6:01and O P O 4 that came before, this set
- 6:03actually did not have SPs. O P O 3 was
- 6:05the first set that had SPs. So, if we
- 6:07look at what's actually contributing to
- 6:08the value of O P O 2, for starters, we
- 6:11got to talk about the Ace Manga. So, of
- 6:13the sets that we've looked at so far,
- 6:15the Ace Manga is by far the most
- 6:16expensive Manga and is contributing by
- 6:18far the most amount to the total case
- 6:20value. So, we have $561 in this case
- 6:24coming from the Ace Manga. Uh the second
- 6:26most expensive category in this, again,
- 6:27because they don't have SPs, uh are
- 6:29actually the alt arts at $18 for an
- 6:32average alt art. Uh with 20 that you're
- 6:34likely to get in a case, that's an EV of
- 6:37uh $360 added to the total case EV.
- 6:40Those aren't like wildly expensive alt
- 6:42arts, but there are some decently priced
- 6:43ones, mostly because this set is kind of
- 6:45on the old side.
- 6:47Uh and then finally, we have our leaders
- 6:49with an average price of $83. Uh you're
- 6:51going to get four in a case, so that's
- 6:52$332
- 6:55uh added to the expected value. The
- 6:57leaders in this set are actually pretty
- 6:59expensive. So, what I find interesting
- 7:01about this is that even though there are
- 7:02no SPs in the set,
- 7:04uh the value of the other cards actually
- 7:07make up for the loss of SPs. When we
- 7:09look at the total expected value for
- 7:11this box, it's $1,555,
- 7:14which is above the other ones that we've
- 7:16so far and has an expected value
- 7:18percentage of 22%, which again, is above
- 7:21the other ones we've looked at so far,
- 7:23even though this is a more expensive
- 7:25box. So, there's a pretty significant
- 7:26difference between uh O3 and O4 and what
- 7:30we're looking at here with O P O 2. Does
- 7:31that mean I think it's an amazing deal?
- 7:33I don't. While I think there's arguably
- 7:35a premium for things that come first,
- 7:38I don't see that much of a premium for a
- 7:39coming second. Again, our estimates of
- 7:42uh the number of cases opened suggests
- 7:45there's a similar amount of product that
- 7:47was printed for OP02, OP03, and OP04.
- 7:50So, I don't see a tremendous premium
- 7:51there. So, I guess I would say I would
- 7:53rather have this box at this price than
- 7:56I would have OP03 or OP04.
- 7:59But, it's not by a ton. And I certainly
- 8:01would not go out and buy this. I still
- 8:02think this is probably overpriced for
- 8:04what you're getting.
- 8:06In terms of whether to rip, well, I
- 8:07certainly wouldn't rip it, and you're
- 8:09definitely going to lose your money.
- 8:10But, of the three things we've looked at
- 8:11so far, I think this is probably the
- 8:13number one choice to rip. So, in terms
- 8:16of how it slots in with the boxes we've
- 8:17looked at, this is going to be number
- 8:19one right now at a 22% expected value.
- 8:22Moving on to the really interesting
- 8:24boxes. So, first up we have OP05, which
- 8:27has an average box price of $958.
- 8:30Now, big caveat here, I ran this
- 8:32analysis a couple weeks ago, and so some
- 8:34of these numbers may be a tiny bit
- 8:36outdated. I think the overall message is
- 8:38the same, but if you're looking at this
- 8:39thinking, you know, you can't get OP05
- 8:42for $958 anymore, I hear you. I don't
- 8:46think it changes things too much, but I
- 8:48wanted to flag that this is a little bit
- 8:49older data.
- 8:51Um in terms of a case price, when I
- 8:52looked at it, it was $11,500 for a case.
- 8:55So, the things that are adding the most
- 8:56value to OP05, the first thing you'll
- 8:59notice here is that the numbers are way,
- 9:00way, way, way bigger. This is the first
- 9:02set where we have any actual chase cards
- 9:05that are really expensive uh to pull up
- 9:07this total value. So, first you have
- 9:09three mangas in this set, and the mangas
- 9:11have an average price of $3,716
- 9:15being pulled up massively by the value
- 9:17of the Gear 5 Luffy manga. And that adds
- 9:19$1,239
- 9:22to the expected value of the box.
- 9:24The biggest one here though is actually
- 9:25the Oda signature, which has an
- 9:27estimated pull rate of one in six and is
- 9:29valued at around $8,000 raw for a total
- 9:32EV of $1,333
- 9:35added to the case.
- 9:37And then finally, you have SPs here that
- 9:39are higher valued than the SPs in OPO 3
- 9:41or OPO 4. Again, you're getting two of
- 9:43them, so that's adding $422 to the total
- 9:46value of the case. If we look at the
- 9:48expected value for OPO 5, it is by far
- 9:51the biggest number that we've looked at
- 9:52so far. It is more than double the
- 9:54second best box that we've looked at at
- 9:56$3,693.
- 9:58And even though these boxes are
- 10:00significantly more expensive than the
- 10:02ones we've looked at so far, this still
- 10:04has a significantly better EV percentage
- 10:05than the other boxes coming in at 32%.
- 10:08So, in terms of whether to buy OPO 5, I
- 10:11actually think these numbers look pretty
- 10:13good. Even though it's very expensive, I
- 10:15don't think that this is wildly
- 10:17overpriced based on the cards that you
- 10:19get inside. And in addition to the cards
- 10:21that you get inside, I actually do think
- 10:23that there's an argument for OPO 5
- 10:25having a higher booster box premium
- 10:27because of how iconic the set is. One of
- 10:29the things that we've seen in Pokémon is
- 10:31that box prices often outgrow the value
- 10:34of the cards inside because the boxes
- 10:35themselves become a collectible. And so
- 10:38when I'm looking at what I think the
- 10:39value of a box should be, I'm
- 10:41considering both how much is the value
- 10:43of the cards inside and now also how
- 10:45iconic is the set. How great is the box
- 10:48art, right? How much of a premium are
- 10:50people going to pay to keep this sealed
- 10:52on their shelf? And unlike two, three,
- 10:54and four, I do think OPO 5 actually has
- 10:57that special sauce that is going to
- 10:59command a premium over other sets uh
- 11:02separate from the amount of value of
- 11:03cards inside. So, I was a little bit
- 11:05surprised when I did this analysis. I
- 11:06thought that I was going to think the
- 11:08box was still kind of overpriced given
- 11:09how expensive it is, but I actually
- 11:11think it's pretty fair uh given its
- 11:13long-term potential and the value of the
- 11:15cards that are already inside.
- 11:17In terms of whether to rip, again, I
- 11:19don't recommend ripping OPO 5, but of
- 11:21all the boxes that we've looked at so
- 11:23far, this is the only one that I can
- 11:24make any type of upside case for. There
- 11:28is a universe where you could possibly
- 11:30open a case
- 11:32uh
- 11:32that [laughter]
- 11:33provides the value that you spent on it.
- 11:36Um you know, there are cards in this set
- 11:38that are worth a lot of money, unlike
- 11:39the other sets that we've looked at so
- 11:41far. So, while I don't recommend ripping
- 11:43this at all, if you were going to rip
- 11:45something of the ones we've looked at so
- 11:46far, this is what you're probably going
- 11:48to get your best return on. So, with its
- 11:50expected value of 32% OP-05 moves into
- 11:53the first slot. Now, we're getting into
- 11:55what I think are the really interesting
- 11:56stuff. So, OP-01 white bottoms. The
- 11:59second most expensive of the first five
- 12:01sets. And actually the second most
- 12:03expensive set that we've ever had in One
- 12:05Piece. A box price of $1,750
- 12:09and a case price of $21,000. Now, if
- 12:11you're watching this and you don't know
- 12:12what a white bottom is, let me give you
- 12:14a quick explanation. When OP-01 first
- 12:16came out, the boxes had blue bottoms.
- 12:19And in those boxes had cards that were
- 12:22eventually errata'd. And when they were
- 12:24reprinted, they reprinted the boxes with
- 12:27errata'd cards and with white bottoms.
- 12:29And so, you essentially have like a
- 12:30first edition set for OP-01, those are
- 12:33the blue bottoms, and an unlimited set
- 12:35if you're comparing it to Pokémon, and
- 12:36those are the white bottoms.
- 12:38From what I can tell, the print runs of
- 12:40the blue bottoms and the white bottoms
- 12:42appear to be somewhat similar. So,
- 12:45primarily the differences between the
- 12:47white bottoms and the blue bottoms are
- 12:49number one, blue bottoms are considered
- 12:50to be first edition, but also they have
- 12:52these pre-errata cards and collectors
- 12:55will pay a premium for the pre-errata
- 12:57versus the errata'd versions of the
- 12:59cards. So, in terms of what's adding
- 13:01value to OP-01, so as we talked about
- 13:03with OP-02, there were no SPs in this
- 13:05set. So, the thing that's actually
- 13:06adding the most value, and I thought
- 13:08this was fascinating, is the alt arts.
- 13:10This is primarily because of the Nami
- 13:13being worth over $400. You also have the
- 13:15Luffy being worth, you know, almost
- 13:17$150. So, the average price of an alt
- 13:20art in this set is $64. And because
- 13:23you're getting 20 of them, that's adding
- 13:24$1,278
- 13:27to the case expected value.
- 13:29Next up we have the leaders. There are
- 13:30some very expensive leaders in this set.
- 13:32Luffy is over 800 dollars, the Zoro's
- 13:35over 550 dollars, the Law's 400 to 450
- 13:38dollars. So the average leader in this
- 13:40set is 302 dollars. And since you're
- 13:42getting four of those, that's adding
- 13:441,209
- 13:46dollars to the overall set value.
- 13:49And then finally, in last place, we
- 13:51actually have the Shanks manga, which
- 13:53although it is the second most expensive
- 13:55manga we've looked at so far, is
- 13:56actually adding the third most value to
- 13:58this set at only 710 dollars. So if we
- 14:01look at how all of that translates to
- 14:02total expected value, we have 3,903
- 14:07dollars total value for an expected
- 14:09value percentage of 19%. Right off the
- 14:11bat, I'll tell you that I expected that
- 14:13OP-05 would have a much higher total
- 14:15expected value than the OP-01 white
- 14:18bottoms. And that I was going to have to
- 14:20come in here and tell you that well,
- 14:21even though the EV on this set's really,
- 14:22really low, you know, because it's old,
- 14:25like that's how we're thinking about
- 14:26pricing it. That's of course still true,
- 14:28but I was very surprised that its EV was
- 14:31above OP-05. So that was a really
- 14:33interesting takeaway from this analysis
- 14:35for me.
- 14:36Because the boxes are so expensive, the
- 14:38EV percentage is still only 19%, but
- 14:42that's not the worst that we've seen.
- 14:44>> [laughter]
- 14:44>> Even though, like OP-05, there are other
- 14:46arguments for why you would want to have
- 14:48this box or why this box would be more
- 14:49expensive than the contents inside.
- 14:52So in terms of whether I would buy this,
- 14:55I still find this box very hard to price
- 14:57because a lot of its value is the fact
- 15:00that it's first, but also on the other
- 15:02hand,
- 15:03because it's the second version of
- 15:05OP-01, it's not like the true first set,
- 15:08right? I'm somewhere between,
- 15:10you know, this is a two-star, maybe it's
- 15:12a little bit overpriced, and this being
- 15:15a three-star reasonable entry point
- 15:17to purchase this at. Again, the expected
- 15:20value is low, but it's not the lowest
- 15:22we've seen. I would rather have this box
- 15:24at this price, I think, than OP02, 3, or
- 15:274. But, because it's so difficult to put
- 15:29a finger on what the price should
- 15:30actually be, it's hard for me to
- 15:32recommend it any more than that.
- 15:34In terms of whether you should open
- 15:35this, no, you should definitely not open
- 15:36this. It is great that the expected
- 15:39value is a lot more than I expected it
- 15:41to be, but still, at a case price of
- 15:44$21,000, there is absolutely no way
- 15:48that you're going to recuperate that
- 15:50cost because there are no huge chases in
- 15:53the white bottom booster boxes. Even if
- 15:55you got lucky and you pulled the Luffy
- 15:57and the Zoro leaders and the Law leader
- 16:00and you pulled, you know, the Nami and
- 16:02the Zoro and the Luffy alt arts, it's
- 16:04never going to equal $21,000. So, under
- 16:06no circumstances should you open this,
- 16:09unless you're actively trying to set
- 16:11money on fire. So, even with it being
- 16:12the most expensive box we've looked at
- 16:14so far, this one's going to slot in at
- 16:16fourth at still having a higher expected
- 16:18value percentage than OP03, which I
- 16:20think speaks really, really badly for
- 16:23OP03
- 16:24and its current price. Finally, we have
- 16:27the big boy, the OP01 blue bottom, at an
- 16:31average box price of $6100
- 16:33and a case price of $73,200.
- 16:36Now, if you're looking at this and
- 16:37thinking $6100, you can find boxes on
- 16:40eBay for, you know, $5600, why are you
- 16:43using that price?
- 16:45The reason I'm using that price is
- 16:46because we just had a sealed case sell
- 16:49at Golden
- 16:50for $73,200.
- 16:53And because we are looking at the case
- 16:55value, which assumes the fixed hits that
- 16:58you're going to get in a case,
- 17:00I wanted to use a sealed case as opposed
- 17:01to individual boxes, which are going to
- 17:04be more hit or miss, right? Because it's
- 17:06possible that somebody opened a case,
- 17:08they took all the good boxes out and are
- 17:10leaving you with just the the weak alt
- 17:12art two hit boxes, right? So, that's why
- 17:14we're using the case price for this. In
- 17:16terms of what is adding value to the
- 17:18boxes, it's exactly the same story as
- 17:21the white bottoms except with different
- 17:23values because now we have the
- 17:25pre-errata versions to consider that are
- 17:28going to massively increase the price of
- 17:29some of these cards. In first place, we
- 17:31have the alt arts at an average price of
- 17:34$131
- 17:36bringing in $2,625.
- 17:39So, this is about twice what the alt
- 17:41arts were bringing to the table in the
- 17:43white bottom booster boxes. So, keep in
- 17:46mind not every alt art has an errata,
- 17:48not every leader has an errata, so there
- 17:50are just a few that are dramatically
- 17:53bringing up the prices of these because
- 17:54they're significantly more expensive.
- 17:56There are some lower level alt arts
- 17:58that, you know, might have been 15 bucks
- 18:01in the white bottoms but are now 150
- 18:03bucks in the blue bottoms because of the
- 18:05pre-errata collector premium. And so,
- 18:07that's why this is going up so much even
- 18:09though not every card is pre-errata.
- 18:12Same thing with the leader here. You
- 18:14know, the leader prices go up to $642.
- 18:17This is being pulled up a lot by the
- 18:18pre-errata Luffy leader, which is the
- 18:20biggest chase that you can hit in the
- 18:22blue bottom.
- 18:23It's actually not that hard to pull
- 18:25comparatively. You know, there were
- 18:27eight leaders and you're getting four,
- 18:28so it's a 50% chance of whether you're
- 18:30going to get one. But the truth is is
- 18:32when you're paying $73,000
- 18:34for a case, having a 50% chance of
- 18:36hitting an expensive card
- 18:38is just not really that helpful anymore.
- 18:39There's no way that you could possibly
- 18:41recuperate the value back that you spent
- 18:44on the booster boxes. But the leaders
- 18:46here are adding $2,567
- 18:49to the total value. And then finally, we
- 18:51have the Shanks, which is exactly the
- 18:53same as OP01 because there wasn't a
- 18:55pre-errata version adding $710 to the
- 18:58value. So, in terms of EV, the OP01 blue
- 19:01bottoms have $7,465
- 19:04worth of cards in an average case. I'll
- 19:07be honest, this is much higher than I
- 19:09was expecting. I I not expect this to be
- 19:11the highest of all the booster boxes.
- 19:13Maybe I should have, but I'm a little
- 19:14bit surprised at how strong the
- 19:16performance is. Now, that said, despite
- 19:18that fact, because the case is so
- 19:20expensive, it's EV percentage is still
- 19:23only 10%, which is by far the worst of
- 19:27any that we've looked at. Now, I would
- 19:29have guessed that this would have been
- 19:30the worst just given how expensive it
- 19:32is, but I am somewhat pleasantly
- 19:34surprised that there is more value in
- 19:37these boxes uh than I would have
- 19:38guessed. And primarily the reason for
- 19:41that is because you have like super
- 19:43rares and alt arts that have pre-errata
- 19:45versions that are significantly more
- 19:47expensive than their errata versions,
- 19:49not just the leaders, which is what most
- 19:51people think about, and that ends up
- 19:53contributing a lot of value to the
- 19:54overall set.
- 19:56Let's start with the easy one. Would I
- 19:57rip it? Under no circumstances. There's
- 20:00absolutely no reason to ever rip this
- 20:02ever. Just do not do it. Like, unless
- 20:04you are the Joker and you are trying to
- 20:06light money on fire because you think
- 20:08it's fun, do not open one of these
- 20:10boxes. They're worth so much more
- 20:11sealed. Now, the hard question.
- 20:13What is the right price for this box?
- 20:17I don't know. So, for starters, let's
- 20:19just talk about the EV percentage,
- 20:21right? So, you have OP01 white bottoms
- 20:23that had a little bit more than half the
- 20:26value of the blue bottoms, and yet the
- 20:28blue bottoms are like a little bit less
- 20:30than four times as expensive as the
- 20:32white bottoms, right? If you're just
- 20:34looking at EV percentage, this would
- 20:36suggest that the blue bottoms should be
- 20:38about twice as expensive as the white
- 20:39bottoms. So, at their current price,
- 20:41that would suggest that the blue bottoms
- 20:43are wildly overpriced.
- 20:45But, the problem is is that there is
- 20:47definitely a premium for the blue
- 20:48bottoms being the first edition, right?
- 20:52How do we quantify what that premium
- 20:54should be? I can frankly also see an
- 20:56argument in the opposite direction that
- 20:58says that, well, there's a much greater
- 21:00premium for the first edition than there
- 21:03is for the unlimited edition. And so,
- 21:06that means that the white bottoms are
- 21:08actually overpriced
- 21:10because they're so vastly inferior to
- 21:12the blue bottoms in terms of like
- 21:14collector desirability.
- 21:16I understand that. I will say I do think
- 21:18there's a pretty big difference here
- 21:19between the first edition Pokémon and
- 21:22the unlimited Pokémon in that we know
- 21:24that the unlimited set had like
- 21:27a way larger print run than the first
- 21:30edition. Whereas here, you have a
- 21:31distinction between errata and
- 21:33pre-errata.
- 21:34But, the print runs of each are pretty
- 21:37equivalent. So, it's not clear that like
- 21:38the pre-errata is significantly rarer
- 21:41than the post-errata. I will also say in
- 21:43terms of collectibility, I think there's
- 21:45a pretty big difference between
- 21:47something that has like a first edition
- 21:49stamp on it versus having a different
- 21:52color bottom to the booster. So,
- 21:55again, I'm not sure that I think I
- 21:57understand what the right price should
- 21:58be. I don't own a white bottom or a blue
- 22:00bottom. You know, I see the argument for
- 22:02why they should be valuable, but they're
- 22:04personally beyond my wrist tolerance.
- 22:06So, in terms of would I buy this? The
- 22:08answer for me is no, but the answer for
- 22:10you might be different. And, you know,
- 22:12in terms of how fairly valued I think it
- 22:14is, I think it's somewhere between a two
- 22:16and a three star in sort of the same
- 22:18vein as the OP01 white bottoms. I think
- 22:22there's a universe where they're both
- 22:23overpriced. I think there's a universe
- 22:25where one is overpriced relative to the
- 22:27other and the other is underpriced. And,
- 22:29I think there's a universe where both of
- 22:31them are underpriced, although that one
- 22:33feels the least likely to me, which is
- 22:35why I'm putting it in the two to three
- 22:36star category. So, again, I see the high
- 22:39upside to this, but I also think there's
- 22:41a tremendous amount of risk because it's
- 22:42so difficult to price. While I don't
- 22:44think this is a shock, the OP01 blue
- 22:46bottoms are going to slot into the last
- 22:48position when it comes to overall
- 22:50expected value percentage at only 10%.
- 22:53So, if we look at number one, we had an
- 22:54expected value of 32% and number six, an
- 22:58expected value of of 10% with everything
- 23:01else falling in the middle. You know,
- 23:03for the most part these boxes are
- 23:05grouped pretty closely. You know, other
- 23:06than the 10 and the 32, everything else
- 23:08was between like
- 23:0918 and 22. So, I think that reflects a
- 23:13little bit of an age premium while also
- 23:14saying that there has to be at least
- 23:16some value of the cards inside. This
- 23:18isn't Pokémon where an Evolving Skies
- 23:20booster box can have a 5% expected
- 23:23value, right? We have to care about the
- 23:25cards inside at least a little even if
- 23:27we are putting a premium for age. All of
- 23:29that said, in terms of my personal
- 23:31rankings,
- 23:33my clear number one is OP-05. For me,
- 23:35you're getting one of the most iconic
- 23:37sets and you're getting the best value
- 23:39cards inside. That feels like a
- 23:41no-brainer to me. I feel like it has a
- 23:43much stronger case for why it's valued
- 23:45the way that it currently is as well as
- 23:47having upside potential.
- 23:49In second place, I would personally put
- 23:51the white bottoms just because I feel
- 23:52like if there is a little bit of an
- 23:54imbalance, maybe it's that the blue
- 23:56bottoms are a little bit overpriced.
- 23:58Now, we have seen a pretty large
- 24:00correction in the booster boxes for blue
- 24:02bottoms, so maybe that has been a
- 24:04recognition
- 24:05that those were a little bit overpriced
- 24:07and they've moved into a more
- 24:08comfortable territory. So, this may not
- 24:10be true anymore.
- 24:11But, in terms of expected value, I think
- 24:13I like it a little bit better than the
- 24:14blue bottoms. But, I I have the blue
- 24:17bottoms as my number three because I
- 24:19think the argument which is better is
- 24:21pretty much personal opinion at this
- 24:22point. One thing I do feel is pretty
- 24:24objective, though, is that two, four,
- 24:27and three are definitely the worst ones
- 24:29to own with two being slightly better
- 24:32and then four being slightly better than
- 24:34three and three clearly being the worst.
- 24:36You know, again, I would not open any of
- 24:38these sets, but if I was going to buy
- 24:40one, I would buy OP-05 and the ones that
- 24:43I would be least likely to buy are
- 24:44OP-02, OP-04, and OP-03. That's all I
- 24:48have for today. I hope you found this
- 24:49helpful. As always, if you did, we would
- 24:51appreciate if you would like, comment,
- 24:53and if you haven't already subscribed.
- 24:55It helps us to get these videos out to
- 24:57more people. Also, we have our TCGPlayer
- 25:00affiliate link and our eBay affiliate
- 25:02link. If you're looking to purchase any
- 25:04type of card really, you know, we would
- 25:06get a commission off of that which helps
- 25:07us out a ton. So as always I appreciate
- 25:10your time and I will see you in the next
- 25:12one.
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