EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Michael Saylor Reveals What Went Wrong For Bitcoin... — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hundreds of billions of dollars and 17
- 0:03years to get here and what we know is
- 0:05Bitcoin is the dominant global digital
- 0:08capital network.
- 0:10So, [music] what is that worth?
- 0:13Even if only 10% of capital wants to be
- 0:15digital, [music] then that's a hundred
- 0:16trillion dollars.
- 0:20By the way,
- 0:22how much Bitcoin has BlackRock sold in
- 0:24the past
- 0:253 months?
- 0:27Do you know for every Bitcoin we sold,
- 0:30other [music] actors in the market have
- 0:32sold
- 0:33a thousand X, actually 2,000 X. So, in
- 0:37the middle of a bear market, Bitcoin
- 0:40crashed from 120,000 to 60,000 and we
- 0:43sold 32 Bitcoin. We have bought net
- 0:45250,000 Bitcoin or something. In what
- 0:48way are we a systemic risk?
- 0:51So, Bitcoin was 120,000 8 months ago,
- 0:54it's 60,000 now. It's sitting around the
- 0:57200-week moving average now, so there's
- 0:59a massive base of support, which means
- 1:02that
- 1:04By the way, you know who was buying the
- 1:05ETFs?
- 1:08A lot of them were [music] the hedge
- 1:09funds shorting our stock. So,
- 1:12there were people shorting 25 billion of
- 1:15>> [music]
- 1:16>> MSTR and buying 25 billion of IBIT as
- 1:20the pair trade. What do you think would
- 1:22happen if we basically sold 250,000
- 1:25Bitcoin right now?
- 1:30>> What happens if Bitcoin from here, where
- 1:33it already lost 50%, [music] goes down
- 1:35another 50% from 60K to 30K? But on the
- 1:38other hand as well, what if Bitcoin
- 1:40doubles again and goes from the 60K back
- 1:42to 120K? These two scenarios, what
- 1:45happens to
- 1:46MicroStrategy, the stock MSTR, and what
- 1:48happens to stretch?
- 1:52>> Yeah, uh
- 1:53>> [sighs]
- 1:53>> Before I Before I answer, I'll just say
- 1:55one funny thing, which is
- 1:57which is in 6 years our company went
- 1:59from an enterprise value of 600 million
- 2:02to an enterprise value of, you know, up
- 2:04to 120 billion and now it's like 80
- 2:06billion or something.
- 2:09Not a single positive story in any
- 2:12mainstream media in the entire 6 years.
- 2:15>> [laughter]
- 2:16>> Not not
- 2:18>> [applause]
- 2:21>> And then when I became when I became
- 2:23chairman and Phong was CEO, they're like
- 2:26Sailor got fired and then they they ran
- 2:28a bunch of negative stories. Sailor got
- 2:31pushed out of the company, he's fired
- 2:33because he because the Bitcoin thing
- 2:35failed and that was like when we had 2
- 2:36billion of Bitcoin.
- 2:38And then when we got to the point where
- 2:40we had 50 billion of Bitcoin, you know,
- 2:42I guess two we
- 2:443 weeks ago, right? Bitcoin trade from
- 2:4682,000 to 62,000. So So we have a 16
- 2:50billion dollar mark-to-market loss and
- 2:53so the story is,
- 2:56you know, Sailor's Sailor's company lost
- 2:5916 billion dollars. They basically
- 3:02revived me, put me back in charge of the
- 3:05company
- 3:06and then made me responsible for the
- 3:08failed strategy, which I thought was
- 3:10amusing.
- 3:12But
- 3:13nobody
- 3:15and so yeah, so if you have 800,000
- 3:17Bitcoin and it trades down 20,000,
- 3:19you'll have a 16 billion dollar
- 3:20mark-to-market loss. But nobody ever
- 3:23once asked the question, "Where did they
- 3:25get the 16 billion dollars to lose?"
- 3:29Because we started the journey with 250
- 3:32million dollars of cash.
- 3:34And of course the story is, a company
- 3:37with 250 million dollars managed to find
- 3:39a way to actually
- 3:41get the 16 to get the 80 billion to lose
- 3:44the 16 billion. But they will never
- 3:47write that story. And and the only moral
- 3:51or lesson of that is no one is ever
- 3:53going to write the story of your
- 3:55success.
- 3:57Like you shouldn't expect it until it
- 3:59becomes conventional wisdom.
- 4:01They will write the story the negative
- 4:03story the cynical story. There's like
- 4:06endless negative stories forever for
- 4:09whatever reason like our Bitcoin
- 4:11strategy failed when we were 2 billion
- 4:13when we were 5 billion when we were 15
- 4:16billion when we were 30 billion when we
- 4:18were 60 billion it keeps failing.
- 4:20There's never been a positive story
- 4:22ever. It's
- 4:24it will always be negative. And
- 4:27and so you kind of have to craft your
- 4:29own narrative and you have to have your
- 4:31own um
- 4:33you have to have your own distribution
- 4:34channel for messages because otherwise,
- 4:37you know, the Peter Schiff's of the
- 4:39world that will tell you Bitcoin is a
- 4:41failure at a dollar
- 4:43will basically have it fail at a dollar
- 4:45$10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000. It's
- 4:48like if if after you got 300 times or
- 4:521,000 times as big you're still failing,
- 4:54you know,
- 4:56you'll never succeed, right? Like
- 4:59and and I I really think I attribute
- 5:01that to the fact that
- 5:03conventional wisdom is everybody will
- 5:06determine that they will declare you a
- 5:09success
- 5:10without thinking about it when it's
- 5:12conventional. And they will declare you
- 5:14a failure without considering it when
- 5:16it's unconventional.
- 5:18And the the conventional wisdom that
- 5:21works against you on the way up will
- 5:23then work to support you once you push
- 5:26through that barrier.
- 5:28And prob- probably the danger is
- 5:30believing any conventional wisdom
- 5:32because it probably is what causes you
- 5:35to become corrupted in time.
- 5:37But back to your other issue. So Bitcoin
- 5:39was $120,000 8 months ago at $60,000
- 5:42now.
- 5:43It's more compelling now. Like it's a
- 5:46there's it's sitting around the 200 week
- 5:48moving average now, so there's a massive
- 5:51base of support right now, which means
- 5:54that
- 5:55>> [clears throat]
- 5:55>> it makes a lot more sense for a risk
- 5:57averse investor or any kind of
- 6:00any diversified investor that has a
- 6:02portion of their portfolio in gold,
- 6:05equity, real estate,
- 6:07credit,
- 6:09and and Bitcoin. It makes more sense for
- 6:12them to be moving their allocation back
- 6:14into Bitcoin now, and so you'll see a
- 6:17reversal in the market. If it were to
- 6:19fall to 30,000,
- 6:21Bitcoin the digital capital would be
- 6:25trading at a discount to its book value
- 6:27to its to its 200 week moving average.
- 6:30That would mean that it would be
- 6:31oversold. You would definitely want to
- 6:33buy it then. It's at even more
- 6:36compelling.
- 6:37The equities that are that are leveraged
- 6:40on it, like the Bitcoin equities, the
- 6:42strategies that strive are even more
- 6:44compelling.
- 6:46And the credit instruments would be more
- 6:49compelling. And if you look at Austrian
- 6:51economics and you consider it's like the
- 6:54free market is always going to adjust
- 6:57supply demand. And so when the things
- 7:01are are under priced, you're going to
- 7:03see a flow of capital into them. When
- 7:06they get over priced, you see a flow of
- 7:08capital out of them.
- 7:10If you want to
- 7:11I don't endorse trading strategies just
- 7:14cuz I think you can get burned by them,
- 7:16but you know, there are a lot of people
- 7:18that don't agree with me in the market.
- 7:20You might be shocked.
- 7:22There are There are a number of people
- 7:24that won't agree with me in the market.
- 7:26And so So there are a lot of derivative
- 7:28traders, you know, people that will will
- 7:30trade Bitcoin. And they would trade it
- 7:32when it's 2x the 200 week moving
- 7:35average, and they would buy it when it's
- 7:36at the moving average or or below the
- 7:39moving average. And so you'll see a lot
- 7:41of capital will flow into it.
- 7:43It's It's going to be self-stabilizing.
- 7:47At the end of the day,
- 7:49the thing to keep your focus I think we
- 7:51have pretty good support here. I You
- 7:53know, I I don't worry too much. I I
- 7:55generally think if you look at the
- 7:57history of Bitcoin, it tends to trade to
- 7:59a premium, a big premium to the 200-week
- 8:01moving average during periods of
- 8:03leverage, and then it trades back toward
- 8:06the 200-week moving average, you know?
- 8:09And so, it If you're a 4-year investor,
- 8:12look at the 4 years, plot that, look at
- 8:15the current spot price, and you can see,
- 8:18you know, where it is. And I I tend to I
- 8:20tend to look at the 200-week moving
- 8:22average as like It's like the book value
- 8:24of of the network. It's the book value
- 8:26of Bitcoin. It's the amount of capital
- 8:28that's been invested on a on the basis
- 8:32in the asset. So, it serves as a pretty
- 8:34good floor.
- 8:36I think uh
- 8:37Uh and I think that's important. And
- 8:39then, um
- 8:41you know, otherwise, uh
- 8:43if you go If you look back to 2022,
- 8:46you know, after the FTX crash and the
- 8:49crypto crash,
- 8:51you know, there was a point when, like,
- 8:54our stock, I guess it, you know, it fell
- 8:57it it went from 120 bucks up to a
- 9:01up to 1,200. It went up by a factor of
- 9:0310. And then, in the crash, it fell all
- 9:06the way back to like 120 or 130 dollars.
- 9:09So, we had a 90% drawdown.
- 9:13We had a massive We had a lot of debt,
- 9:16and we had a lot of Bitcoin. And so, at
- 9:17that point, we were like
- 9:20two, you know, right now, we had net
- 9:22leverage of 10%. Then, we had net
- 9:23leverage of like 200% or something, like
- 9:26a a very large
- 9:28leverage number, like
- 9:32Yeah, it's a maybe a Yeah. I don't know
- 9:34if the number is 200%, but it was like
- 9:35much higher than it is right now. We had
- 9:37like $2 billion of debt and $2 billion
- 9:39of Bitcoin, you know, something like
- 9:41that. So, it was very heavy leverage.
- 9:44And that was the best time to buy the
- 9:46stock. People that bought that stock and
- 9:47the stock rallied 800% and then that and
- 9:50the next cycle. So,
- 9:53I think I think that,
- 9:56you know, like it or not, for better or
- 9:59for worse,
- 10:0099.9%
- 10:02of the capital in the world is not
- 10:04invested in Bitcoin.
- 10:06And is not invested in the Bitcoin
- 10:08derivatives, the equity and the credit.
- 10:11So, if Bitcoin trades down, it just
- 10:13makes the equity, the credit, and the
- 10:15commodity that much more compelling.
- 10:17You'll have capital drawn in that will
- 10:19support it back up. And then, you know,
- 10:22you'll have extraordinary amount of
- 10:25wealth created in the next bull run.
- 10:28The
- 10:29The last point I'll make is it's very
- 10:31important to to stay focused on the
- 10:32fundamentals and the fundamentalists
- 10:34have this right.
- 10:36You know, uh Bitcoin is economic
- 10:39empowerment and and it is sovereign
- 10:41property rights for the world and it is
- 10:44and it is the dominant digital monetary
- 10:46network, right? This is a maximalist
- 10:48idea.
- 10:49It's a It's a fundamentalist idea.
- 10:53And if you look at Bitcoin dominance or
- 10:55crypto dominance over the past 5 years,
- 10:58uh
- 10:59Bitcoin was, you know, in, you know, in
- 11:02the years from like
- 11:042015 to 2020, it was like 70% of crypto.
- 11:08And then,
- 11:10when you had peak leverage with peak FTX
- 11:14and all the offshore derivatives, it,
- 11:17you know, Ethereum rallied, Solana
- 11:19rallied, FTX rallied. There was Dogecoin
- 11:23rallied, there was Terra Luna, and all
- 11:25this all this crypto stuff.
- 11:28Dominance fell to 40%. It was like 41%
- 11:31of all capital in the crypto capital
- 11:33market on on a capital basis, not on a
- 11:36liquidity basis.
- 11:37And if you look at the last 5 years, if
- 11:39you look at the percentage of Bitcoin
- 11:41versus the other crypto tokens, not
- 11:44including stablecoin,
- 11:47Bitcoin dominance has gone from 40% all
- 11:50the way up to about 68 to 70%. So,
- 11:54nature's healing.
- 11:56Uh
- 11:58Bitcoin has emerged as the dominant
- 12:01crypto capital, really the only crypto
- 12:04capital network, the crypto monetary
- 12:07network. Right? No one seriously
- 12:10thinks that Ethereum is going to flip
- 12:13the flippening did not come.
- 12:16Right? There is no Ethereum flippening.
- 12:18No one thinks Solana, Ethereum, sweet,
- 12:22BNB, Ripple, any of the other tokens, no
- 12:26one thinks any of them are going to
- 12:29supplant Bitcoin as digital money, as as
- 12:32digital capital.
- 12:35And so, and and it took us 17 years to
- 12:38get here.
- 12:40You know,
- 12:41our company had to invest 64 billion,
- 12:44right? And you know, the and the
- 12:46institutional investors invested
- 12:47hundreds of billions, hundreds of
- 12:49billions of dollars in 17 years to get
- 12:52here. And what we know is Bitcoin is the
- 12:54dominant global digital capital network.
- 12:57So, what is that worth?
- 13:00It's got to be worth 10% of all the
- 13:02capital in the world. Even if only 10%
- 13:04of the capital wants to be digital, then
- 13:07that's a hundred trillion dollars.
- 13:10And so, what does it matter if it trades
- 13:1130,000 or 60,000 or 90,000?
- 13:15It doesn't matter whether it's currently
- 13:16valued a trillion or half a trillion or
- 13:18two trillion.
- 13:20The market need is a hundred trillion or
- 13:23more.
- 13:24There is no second best. There's no
- 13:27competitor. You can't create
- 13:31anything.
- 13:32And so, it's just like when Google won,
- 13:36they won. When Facebook won, they won.
- 13:38When Apple won, they won. When Coca-Cola
- 13:40won, they won. When you end up with the
- 13:43the monopoly in the space, the
- 13:46franchise,
- 13:48you're going to have periods of
- 13:49hysteria,
- 13:51you know, where there's a panic.
- 13:54And then And during the panic, you know,
- 13:56Coca-Cola stock or Apple stock or Amazon
- 13:59stock or Google stock or New York City
- 14:01real estate will be cheap.
- 14:03And then the panic will subside. And
- 14:06people are like, "What the heck was I
- 14:07thinking? I mean, I You know, why didn't
- 14:09I buy that when I Of course, the world's
- 14:12not The world's not ending. And if the
- 14:14world doesn't end, then I guess having a
- 14:17monopoly on something is a good idea.
- 14:19And And so, Bitcoin's got the monopoly
- 14:21on digital money.
- 14:24The world is not ending, and no one's
- 14:26coming up with a better digital money,
- 14:28and we know that.
- 14:30So, this is just a trading opportunity.
- 14:33Bitcoin trades down, you should buy it.
- 14:35You know? And And by the way, if you
- 14:37have no money, it doesn't matter,
- 14:39because other people have more money
- 14:41than you,
- 14:43and they like money, and they will buy
- 14:45it, and it will trade back up again.
- 14:47>> It's like Amazon went from 100 bucks to
- 14:492 bucks at one point, right? And then it
- 14:51became a [ __ ] 2 3 trillion-dollar
- 14:54company.
- 14:54>> It was clear in 2010 that there was no
- 14:56retailer in the world that could compete
- 14:58with Amazon.
- 14:59>> Yeah.
- 14:59>> It was clear, but it was only clear in
- 15:012020 that everybody needed Amazon.
- 15:04>> Yeah.
- 15:05>> So, a decade before the conventional
- 15:08wisdom or the consensus was the world
- 15:11needs a company like Amazon, it was
- 15:13obvious to an independent thinker.
- 15:15>> Yeah.
- 15:16>> And the same is true with Bitcoin. It's
- 15:18obvious
- 15:19the world needs digital money and
- 15:21digital capital.
- 15:23You know, and and is it 10 years before
- 15:25everybody agrees with you? Likely.
- 15:28But as I say, you don't want people to
- 15:30agree with you. You want them not to
- 15:33agree with you. You just want to be
- 15:34right.
- 15:35>> What I really admire you is what you
- 15:37achieved even before you got to Bitcoin
- 15:39because you're a self-made billionaire
- 15:41and at this point you've built a hundred
- 15:43billion-dollar
- 15:45business. I know that less than 1% of
- 15:47businesses that are valued at more than
- 15:5010 million and you built a hundred
- 15:51billion-dollar business. I'm at roughly
- 15:53a hundred million valuation now. So,
- 15:55what would be your advice to a young
- 15:57entrepreneur like me? How did you do
- 16:00this? How did you scale the business to
- 16:03such an amazing size?
- 16:07>> Um
- 16:08So,
- 16:10I guess if I look back at my career,
- 16:13I mean the the first thing is
- 16:15you want to create a product.
- 16:18Yeah.
- 16:19The world doesn't want 10,000 pages of a
- 16:22book. It doesn't really want you to talk
- 16:25at it for thousands of hours. It doesn't
- 16:27want to be educated. It just wants you
- 16:29to It just wants the answer. So,
- 16:32everybody wants you to solve their
- 16:33problem. It's either give me the pill
- 16:36like this makes me not fat, give it to
- 16:39me, right? If it's like Ozempic or
- 16:41something. I want to be rich. I want to
- 16:43be not fat. I I want the car to drive
- 16:45itself. I want the
- 16:47If we could give If you could give me a
- 16:49teleporter beam, I would take it. You
- 16:51know, give me something that's very,
- 16:54very easy that I understand. So, the
- 16:58best business is normally are just this
- 17:00really compelling product and service
- 17:02and and so the second observation I have
- 17:05is
- 17:07you know, like everything we ever did,
- 17:08it's always look at the new technology,
- 17:10technology that that everyone that came
- 17:13before you didn't have. So, if you want
- 17:16to create a business, it's not likely
- 17:18that you will create a business by using
- 17:21technology that's 30 years old or doing
- 17:23any any business model or
- 17:26any you know, any technique that your
- 17:29parents used to make money is probably
- 17:31off-limits to you. So, so don't copy
- 17:35anything
- 17:36Let me say it in a snarky way. Don't do
- 17:39anything that was successful for someone
- 17:41older than you.
- 17:43Right? If someone in you know, 10 years
- 17:45ahead of you or 20 years ahead of you
- 17:47did it,
- 17:49it probably won't work for you because
- 17:52the market is just so competitive that
- 17:54once an idea click, it's like with
- 17:57classic rock and roll, like all the
- 17:59really good classic rock and roll came
- 18:01from like 1969 to 1970-something.
- 18:05Sorry if you like 80s stuff, but
- 18:09you know, it's like why? Because we had
- 18:11the amplifier and we had the electric
- 18:13guitar and like within 10 years of
- 18:15having all the technology, human genius
- 18:19figures out the stuff. So,
- 18:22So, I think that all these
- 18:24all these good businesses when we were
- 18:26starting, okay, what did I do? I used a
- 18:29Macintosh computer when nobody in
- 18:32business used Macintosh's. So, that was
- 18:34like the new thing. Everybody with a
- 18:36suit and more money than me used an IBM
- 18:39computer or a mainframe or a mini
- 18:42computer. So, we used the new thing. And
- 18:45then we created graphical interface
- 18:47software when everybody in the world
- 18:49used ASCII. You know, no one used GUIs
- 18:53and that was the new thing. And then we
- 18:55used internet when nobody used the
- 18:57internet. And then we used mobile phones
- 18:59when nobody used mobile phones. So, as
- 19:02long as you're doing something that no
- 19:04one else ever succeeded at before, then
- 19:06maybe you have a chance to succeed.
- 19:08And whenever you're doing something
- 19:11whenever you're creating a business and
- 19:12you're saying, "Well, look, 10 years ago
- 19:14or 15 years ago they did it." It's like
- 19:16you're probably going to fail.
- 19:18So,
- 19:19if I was doing a business right now, I
- 19:21would say, "Well, what is new now?"
- 19:23Digital assets, digital intelligence,
- 19:27digital communication. I was like,
- 19:29"Who's Who's Mr. Beast?" Right? I got By
- 19:33the way, the way
- 19:35if you ask someone that's 20 years older
- 19:38than you, "Who is Mr. Beast?" They
- 19:39probably don't know.
- 19:42Right? Uh because Mr. Beast created a
- 19:44new form of uh content on a new network
- 19:48that was inconceivable
- 19:5115 years ago.
- 19:53So, things that were inconceivable are
- 19:55generally good ideas.
- 19:57Um
- 19:58What What you want is you want a
- 20:01a business idea that's going to go
- 20:04viral, that's like so cool that everyone
- 20:06will tell their their friends that they
- 20:09want that thing, right? And and there's
- 20:11a litany of them, right? Whether it's
- 20:13Skype or WhatsApp or, you know, whether
- 20:16it's YouTube or
- 20:18or the like, uh and there will always be
- 20:20more.
- 20:22But, uh
- 20:24that's my second piece of advice. My
- 20:25third piece of advice is if you come up
- 20:28with a really good idea,
- 20:30laser-like focus on the good idea, and
- 20:33then
- 20:34as soon as it's successful,
- 20:36assume that you have to work 10 times
- 20:38harder to keep it successful.
- 20:41Because uh this is the curse of the
- 20:4330-something alpha male. This happens I
- 20:45don't know how old you are, but
- 20:47>> Yeah, exactly that.
- 20:47>> But, um
- 20:49What What Here's Here's the life cycle.
- 20:51It's not always this way, but and I'm
- 20:53I'm not saying it isn't the curse of the
- 20:5530-year-old alpha female, cuz it's the
- 20:57curse of the 30-year-old alpha female,
- 20:58too. It's just women are just smarter
- 21:00than men most of the time, and so they
- 21:01don't do what I'm about to describe to
- 21:03you. Which is
- 21:04in your 20s, you actually want to start
- 21:08a business or you do something and then
- 21:10it takes a decade of struggle and then
- 21:13if you're successful By the way, a lot
- 21:14of people aren't successful, but if you
- 21:16are successful,
- 21:17you get there after about a decade
- 21:21and then you declare victory and then
- 21:22you tell yourself you're a genius and
- 21:25you were born to be successful and then
- 21:27you think about what's the next hill to
- 21:29climb. And you're like, well, now that
- 21:31I've succeeded at this, I have to go do
- 21:33the next thing.
- 21:35Like
- 21:36now that I've succeeded at this, I have
- 21:38to launch a second. So, in my case,
- 21:41I was successful creating a business
- 21:42intelligence software company that was
- 21:44worth a billion dollars by my mid-30s.
- 21:47So, then I came up with 10 more business
- 21:49ideas. And then I was like, I'm going to
- 21:51launch strategy.com,
- 21:52alarm.com, angel.com, emma.com,
- 21:56wisdom.com, usher.com, alert I'm not
- 22:00joking. These are all real businesses I
- 22:02created.
- 22:03Like about 10 of them.
- 22:06None of them worked as well as the first
- 22:08one.
- 22:09But
- 22:10it you know, it's it's the mistake you
- 22:12make when you think, well,
- 22:15the business was successful because I'm
- 22:18a genius and I was put on Earth to
- 22:20create these beautiful things and I'm
- 22:21going to create 10 more. And of course
- 22:23you're going to say, well, well, Elon
- 22:24did it. Well, you know, like one guy in
- 22:27a hundred years did it.
- 22:30And there's four billion other dudes and
- 22:32eight billion people on the planet. So,
- 22:34one person out of eight billion people
- 22:36did it. You're not
- 22:38That's a fooled by randomness issue.
- 22:40You're not supposed to actually divine
- 22:43your wisdom by looking at the
- 22:45at the exception to the rule. Uh what I
- 22:48have seen more often than not is it's
- 22:51it's hard to be successful and
- 22:54people aren't successful because they
- 22:56try to do something that's been done
- 22:58before. They don't embrace all of the
- 23:00new technology.
- 23:02If you If you embrace new technology and
- 23:05you think originally and you come up
- 23:07with something which has never been done
- 23:08and do it in a way that could could have
- 23:10never been done,
- 23:11you have a chance.
- 23:13If you focus, then maybe you succeed.
- 23:15After you succeed, nine out of 10 times
- 23:18the person that succeeded tells himself
- 23:20it was all them and they go off to do 10
- 23:22more things and they utterly fail.
- 23:24And and and In my case, I went off to do
- 23:27the other 10 things and and I lost years
- 23:30when in fact I should have been invested
- 23:32in the core business because
- 23:34at the point that you create the
- 23:35billion-dollar success or the hundred
- 23:38million-dollar A hundred million dollars
- 23:40is very successful. A billion is very
- 23:41successful. At the point that you create
- 23:44that success,
- 23:47you're at the most risky point in the
- 23:49business because your maintenance
- 23:51obligation is increasing exponentially.
- 23:54So, what I would say is
- 23:55it's like the stoic idea.
- 23:59Can you buy the Can you buy the boat?
- 24:01Yes, you can buy the boat.
- 24:03Can you afford to maintain the boat?
- 24:05Most people can't maintain it. And then
- 24:08do you have a lifestyle to enjoy the
- 24:10boat?
- 24:11So, a hundred people buy the boat, 10
- 24:13people, you know, you know, 90 people
- 24:15run out of money and they can't maintain
- 24:17it. Like give the boat back.
- 24:19And so, 10 people can afford to keep the
- 24:21boat and one person actually finds that
- 24:24they actually use the boat. And you go
- 24:26to any marina and there's like 87,000
- 24:29little boats that are sitting there.
- 24:31The equivalent in business is can you
- 24:33create or buy the business or start the
- 24:35business? Yeah. Can you actually run the
- 24:39business profitably and maintain it?
- 24:42Much harder.
- 24:44Can you grow the business while
- 24:47maintaining profitability faster than
- 24:52everybody else in the world?
- 24:55Right? If you want to actually succeed,
- 24:58you have to run the business
- 24:59successfully and grow it faster than
- 25:02your competitor because
- 25:05because if you cash cow or harvest the
- 25:07business,
- 25:09they will outgrow you and bury you. And
- 25:12so,
- 25:13most people they think that
- 25:16they think like the joy is in the
- 25:17getting the
- 25:18Have you ever heard people say, "I just
- 25:20like to get these things started and
- 25:21then go to the next thing?"
- 25:23Okay, that's
- 25:25That's That's not a good recipe for
- 25:28business success because
- 25:31you have to say, "I'm going to do this,
- 25:33devote my life to this. I'm going to
- 25:35make it continuously better in every way
- 25:38than anyone else that chooses to compete
- 25:40with me in this niche forever."
- 25:44And and and that's another way of saying
- 25:47people
- 25:48they underestimate the maintenance
- 25:50obligation.
- 25:52It's 10 times harder to maintain the
- 25:55business than it is to get into it, and
- 25:57it's a 100 times harder to prosper, to
- 26:00enjoy the business while growing it.
- 26:04And people just under invest in the
- 26:06relationship. And so, uh
- 26:09that's my That's my last piece of
- 26:11advice. Laser focus, commit, marry it.
- 26:15And and every every iota of your
- 26:18thinking and energy
- 26:20ought to be, "How do I make this thing
- 26:22better?"
- 26:24That would be uh
- 26:26That That would be uh virtuous.
- 26:30And the And the
- 26:32uh
- 26:33What is the scourge of all businesses is
- 26:35dilutive distractions.
- 26:37It's like My joke is like I I don't
- 26:40regret my bad ideas because no one's
- 26:42stupid enough to
- 26:45focus on commercializing bad ideas. I
- 26:48regret my good ideas
- 26:50because after you've had one
- 26:53you have 10 more good ideas and you have
- 26:55to ask yourself the question, is this
- 26:57diluted and distracting to my great
- 27:00idea?
- 27:01And I I think most the time in business
- 27:04if
- 27:05I I lived to see one there were 100
- 27:08companies in the business intelligence
- 27:10space. 99 out of 100 went out of
- 27:12business or failed or got amalgamated.
- 27:15Every one of them failed because they
- 27:17got distracted and diluted. They They
- 27:20did diluted acquisitions.
- 27:23They strayed. They lost focus. They lost
- 27:26intensity. They didn't have the
- 27:27endurance.
- 27:29And so business often times is this is
- 27:31just this commitment to endurance.
- 27:34And yeah, you know, like how many people
- 27:36put laser eyes on, right?
- 27:39Like 5 years ago.
- 27:41I did.
- 27:43A lot of other people did. I think that
- 27:4495% of them took the laser eyes off.
- 27:47>> Yeah.
- 27:47>> Like I still have laser eyes. Like I
- 27:50make a joke. I'll make a joke. It's time
- 27:52to put the laser eyes back on. A lot of
- 27:54people
- 27:55don't realize that I never took them
- 27:57off. They're like, "Oh, you can Sailor,
- 27:58put the laser eyes back on."
- 28:01No, I mean the whole point is I said and
- 28:02focused on the same thing every every
- 28:05day for the last 6 years straight.
- 28:08And people think some
- 28:10They're like, "Somehow you got lucky."
- 28:12It's like I mean the irony is everybody
- 28:15that was in this business before me
- 28:18Like everybody that was in the Bitcoin
- 28:19business before me, it's like they never
- 28:21put the laser eyes on. They took the
- 28:23laser eyes off and they got distracted
- 28:25and went off to work on like one of 18
- 28:27other things and
- 28:29And success in in business is not that
- 28:31complicated. It's whoever wants it the
- 28:33most gets up every single day and thinks
- 28:36you know, morning, noon, and night about
- 28:39how they're going to serve the customer
- 28:42or how they're going to further the
- 28:44business, they're most likely uh to win.
- 28:48And uh uh
- 28:50I'll make one last point, which is
- 28:53Okay, there's 8 billion people on the
- 28:55planet.
- 28:57That means
- 28:59if you're
- 29:02the smartest person out of a thousand
- 29:04people in your school,
- 29:07right?
- 29:10There's 8 million people
- 29:12as smart as you.
- 29:14Right? When you divide a thousand into 8
- 29:17billion, there's 8 million people that
- 29:20are hyper geniuses. If you were one in a
- 29:22thousand, there's 8 million people
- 29:23you're competing against. If you were
- 29:25one in 10,000, there's 800,000
- 29:28people you're competing with. If you
- 29:30were the smartest person in a hundred
- 29:32thousand, there's 80,000 people you're
- 29:34competing with. There's not 80,000 good
- 29:36businesses.
- 29:38So, you think you're smart and you work
- 29:40hard, it's not enough because there's
- 29:41someone that's a hyper genius that has
- 29:43nothing that you have that wants it.
- 29:47Right? And and and so, if you're lucky
- 29:49enough to be in a business, you just
- 29:50have to say to yourself, there is a
- 29:52person that is the smartest person in
- 29:55their entire city
- 29:56that has nothing, that's younger than
- 29:59me, that's got nothing to lose, that's
- 30:01got everything to gain,
- 30:03that that they're going to go 80 hours a
- 30:07week. You know, like when I left MIT,
- 30:10I worked uh
- 30:12I worked uh
- 30:1570 hours a week, 50 weeks a year. So,
- 30:173,500 hours a year for 10 years
- 30:20straight.
- 30:22And in order to get to the point where
- 30:24the business was successful, and people
- 30:27asked me about it, I said, "That was
- 30:29really easy compared to MIT." You're
- 30:30lucky. Like that was easy. MIT was so
- 30:33much harder
- 30:34than working 30 70 hours a week, 50
- 30:37weeks a year. It was so much harder.
- 30:40Like it was like MIT was so hard
- 30:44that on Friday night we'd walk past the
- 30:47geek dorm and they'd have the lights on
- 30:49and we hated them because we're like,
- 30:51those people are taking they're working
- 30:53for the three hours between 6:00 and
- 30:5610:00 or 6:00 and 9:00 on Friday night
- 30:58and those were the only three or four
- 31:00hours we took off the entire week and we
- 31:02hated them.
- 31:05Cuz we work Saturday, we work Sunday,
- 31:06Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,
- 31:07Friday, 16 hours a day we took four
- 31:10hours off and the geeks were working,
- 31:11the nerds were working those four hours
- 31:13and we hated them.
- 31:15Okay? And my point to you is, however
- 31:17successful you are, there's a guy
- 31:20smarter than you, younger than you,
- 31:22nothing that has nothing that wants what
- 31:24you have
- 31:26and they're going to stare at you and
- 31:27they're going to say you're fat, dumb,
- 31:28and happy and they want it and you're
- 31:30going to tell yourself that somehow God
- 31:32put you on Earth and made you smart and
- 31:34you don't have to work as hard.
- 31:37Wrong. You have to work
- 31:39insanely hard to hold your position in a
- 31:43market of 8 billion people that want
- 31:45what you have and have nothing to lose
- 31:48and can take more risk to get to it.
- 31:50>> The easy thing is to start a business.
- 31:52Not hard to start a business. People ask
- 31:53me, oh, how did you do that? How do you
- 31:55start a business? Starting a business is
- 31:56super easy. Everyone can start a
- 31:57business tomorrow. Staying in the same
- 31:59business every day for 10 years, how
- 32:02many can do that? That's the hard part.
- 32:05So, if you were with everything you
- 32:07know, all the experience you have in
- 32:10Bitcoin, in fundraising, in AI, and in
- 32:13technology, in business intelligence,
- 32:15with everything you've learned, with all
- 32:17your network, now you started a new
- 32:19business from scratch.
- 32:22What would you do?
- 32:24>> Um, you know, if I was starting a new
- 32:26business right now, you would definitely
- 32:28want to do something with digital
- 32:29intelligence or digital assets or
- 32:32digital something, especially if you
- 32:34didn't have that much capital. I'm not
- 32:36an expert on
- 32:38you know, on bio
- 32:40you know,
- 32:41bioengineering and pharmaceuticals and
- 32:43and there's a lot of other areas where
- 32:45people are in business, but
- 32:47but I think that given the fact that
- 32:49we're in the digital asset space and
- 32:52you're at a Bitcoin conference,
- 32:55the obvious thing to do is
- 32:56[clears throat] to combine AI with
- 32:58digital assets. If I wanted to make a
- 33:01billion dollars right now, starting from
- 33:03nothing, if I'm sitting with my best
- 33:05friend or three people around a table
- 33:07saying, "How do we create a
- 33:08billion-dollar business?"
- 33:10I would think
- 33:13I want to create some kind of digital
- 33:16money or digital yield type instrument
- 33:21based upon digital credit
- 33:24based on digital capital. So, so,
- 33:27Bitcoin is digital capital, digital
- 33:30credit takes a 40 ball asset and strips
- 33:34it down to four ball and takes a 30 or
- 33:3740% return and turns it into 10% return.
- 33:42But the real incredible opportunity, and
- 33:45I'll discuss this in my keynote
- 33:47tomorrow, is
- 33:49is uh there are so many thousands of
- 33:52opportunities to create digital money
- 33:54and digital yield. Like Like the first
- 33:56company that creates um
- 33:59a Swiss bank account that pays you 6% in
- 34:03Swiss francs.
- 34:05What What do people want? They want
- 34:08risk-free return.
- 34:10They want fr- What do people want? We
- 34:12want to be not fat, we want to live
- 34:14forever, we want a robot to do all the
- 34:16work, we want the car to drive us,
- 34:19right? And we want to be rich.
- 34:22And we want to do it without stress, no
- 34:25anxiety, no risk, and I want someone
- 34:27else to do it for me.
- 34:30Okay? And uh
- 34:32it's you know and and the great products
- 34:35I mean literally it's it's like oh yeah
- 34:37that thing I inject that and it makes me
- 34:38not fat just get what's in it just give
- 34:40it to me. Click.
- 34:43It's like you know it's like give me
- 34:45give me that thing, right? Um
- 34:48And so if we just focus upon finance, I
- 34:52would just say people would just like to
- 34:54get rich comfortably with no risk. And
- 34:57so if you go to Japan and you offer
- 34:59people digital digital money that pays
- 35:02them 6% in yen, no currency risk,
- 35:05no market risk, no [clears throat]
- 35:07volatility. If you go to Europe and
- 35:09offer people 6 or 8% euro accounts,
- 35:13it it
- 35:14I I say this to I've even said this to,
- 35:18you know, large companies. I'm like,
- 35:20here's your website. Your website ought
- 35:22to be you can either have
- 35:256%
- 35:2712% or 18%
- 35:30yield in Swiss francs, euros, or
- 35:34dollars.
- 35:36Just click.
- 35:40Everybody wants to do complicated stuff,
- 35:42but I just think okay okay well how do
- 35:45you create
- 35:4718% yield in euros? Start with 11% yield
- 35:51in USD, convert the currency to euros
- 35:54with the currency hedge, borrow the
- 35:56money at two, three, or four percent
- 35:58interest, loop it three times, generate
- 36:0230 plus percent yield, keep 5%, keep 5%
- 36:06for the volatility and currency hedge,
- 36:08pass the rest through to the customer.
- 36:10If you want, give them a one-month
- 36:12lockup or give them a three-month
- 36:14lockup. Do you want 24%? You got to hold
- 36:17the money in for three months. Yeah.
- 36:20Everybody comes up with complicated
- 36:22ideas, but by the way and it's a it's a
- 36:25point I would make to you, like, all
- 36:27those other things, they were brilliant
- 36:29and sophisticated and they had like 100
- 36:32features and they all failed.
- 36:35It's because people come up with
- 36:36complicated ideas
- 36:39with lots of moving parts.
- 36:41And the one thing you learn in life is
- 36:44just a simple idea. The first bank in
- 36:48the UK that gives people 8% yield in
- 36:52Great British pounds with no volatility.
- 36:56Like, who wants that? Everybody wants
- 36:57that.
- 36:58What What's, you know, what If you're a
- 37:00saver, you want 8% no risk, no
- 37:02volatility cuz you're getting right now
- 37:043%. If you're an investor, you want 16%
- 37:09maybe you'll agree to lock up the money
- 37:10for 3 months. Pay me double.
- 37:13Maybe I want 24%. Pay me triple, right?
- 37:17How do you do it? It's It's simple to do
- 37:19it. Go to an AI and say, "I want to take
- 37:22stretch
- 37:23and I want to create zero volatility 20%
- 37:27yield. How much leverage do I need?
- 37:29What's the cost of capital? How do I do
- 37:31it? Can I wrap it into a public fund, a
- 37:33private fund, a bank account, a token?"
- 37:38I would figure that out. Why Why do I
- 37:40think it's a big opportunity? Because
- 37:42you can create digital money in every
- 37:45jurisdiction and every currency at every
- 37:48and there are a lot of flavors of
- 37:50volatility and liquidity preferences.
- 37:52You can wrap it in different ways.
- 37:55The AI will show you how to build it and
- 38:00It's like It's like I I I say this and
- 38:02it's kind of tongue in cheek, but it's
- 38:04serious. How do you make money?
- 38:06Make the money.
- 38:09Like, make Like, literally make Who Who
- 38:13made the most money in the last thousand
- 38:15years? The people that made the money.
- 38:18The goldsmiths, right? The bankers. The
- 38:20bankers make the money. If I have a
- 38:23bunch of gold and I start issuing gold
- 38:25back credit notes and then I owe and
- 38:28pretty soon you've got a billion dollars
- 38:29of gold and you issue two billion
- 38:31dollars of gold back credit notes, you
- 38:32just created a billion dollars out of
- 38:33thin air.
- 38:35Just making the money.
- 38:36Um what what we're doing is creating
- 38:39credit money with STRC.
- 38:42Strive is creating credit money with
- 38:44SATA.
- 38:46But but uh it's uh volatile.
- 38:50It's got a five volatility and and
- 38:52volatility is a is a challenge. It it
- 38:55decreases the appeal.
- 38:57The third layer, true true uh
- 39:00non-volatile
- 39:02digital asset, it's like peg it to a
- 39:04currency, the yen, the CNY, the euro,
- 39:07the Swiss franc, the whatever. Peg it to
- 39:09the currency, no volatility, decide how
- 39:12much liquidity you want to offer, decide
- 39:14how much yield you want to offer, and
- 39:16just go sell it and keep 100 or 200
- 39:19basis points or 300 basis points, right?
- 39:23Like I That's what I would do if I was
- 39:26working a business.
- 39:28That That's my best idea, but you know,
- 39:30the other ideas There's a lot There's a
- 39:32ton of other ideas. Like a robot that
- 39:34does everything that you want that cost
- 39:36$20,000 a year. Who wants it? Everybody
- 39:38wants it. You'll sell a billion of them.
- 39:40The question is, can you create a robot
- 39:42that does that works, right?
- 39:45It's clearly it's it's worth $10
- 39:46trillion to Nvidia or to Tesla. Will
- 39:50they try? They will definitely try.
- 39:53Maybe Apple will do it. I don't know.
- 39:55So, there's a lot of miracle drugs,
- 39:57there's a lot of miracle devices.
- 40:00Um I
- 40:01I would just leave you with the thought
- 40:04that Elon Musk is is got this uh quote,
- 40:08you know, and he said like the biggest
- 40:10mistake that engineers make is is
- 40:14improving
- 40:16a part that shouldn't exist or improving
- 40:18a function that shouldn't exist.
- 40:20Like what is the the ideal product is a
- 40:23product with no moving parts. It's like
- 40:26like I have this watch.
- 40:31And you put it on your wrist or like
- 40:33your little orange bands. If I put the
- 40:34orange band on my wrist and I become
- 40:36indestructible cuz I got a force field
- 40:38and and nothing can hurt me.
- 40:43Right? The personal force field or how
- 40:45about the one where where it it just
- 40:47prevents you from getting sick, aging,
- 40:49dying, or being hurt?
- 40:52Well, how many moving parts? None.
- 40:54Do you want to buy that? Of course you
- 40:56do.
- 40:57And you know, what's an example of that?
- 41:00Uh
- 41:01any product that you buy once in your
- 41:04life that works forever.
- 41:06Okay, an insurance policy.
- 41:09It's like I bought the insurance policy.
- 41:11Well, what does it do? Actually, kind of
- 41:13nothing, but but somehow I pay for it
- 41:16and the insurance company sits back and
- 41:18collects money forever, right? And
- 41:21is there any user error?
- 41:23Right?
- 41:24It's impossible to have user error,
- 41:27right? It's just I just bought it.
- 41:29The whole idea of digital credit is
- 41:31well, how does it work? Well, you buy a
- 41:33share for $100, it pays you forever.
- 41:36Well, what do I have to do after I I
- 41:38bought it? It took 10 seconds and what
- 41:40do I do for the next 100 years? Nothing.
- 41:43So
- 41:45the real appeal
- 41:46of digital intelligence, in my opinion,
- 41:49is there are a lot of things in the
- 41:51world that have a lot of moving parts
- 41:53and they're gadgety, like the phones
- 41:56that have buttons and
- 41:58you know, everything has a lot of parts,
- 42:00you know? And
- 42:02we're getting to the point where you can
- 42:04just get rid of all the parts and just
- 42:07have the thing do
- 42:09the thing, right?
- 42:11And yeah, the if you put the glasses on
- 42:14and the glasses look all around you and
- 42:16the glasses internalize everything and
- 42:18the glasses answered the question,
- 42:20"Who's How many people are sitting in
- 42:21the room right now?"
- 42:23And 497. It's like
- 42:26I just want instantaneous friction-free.
- 42:30It's better like, "Okay, how many people
- 42:32in the room right now? 497. Okay, send
- 42:34them all like a Bitcoin. Okay, done."
- 42:37Right? Like
- 42:38instant friction-free empowerment. And
- 42:42um
- 42:43those products will go viral. They're
- 42:45they're they're not necessarily easy to
- 42:48build, but some of them are. There are a
- 42:49lot of products.
- 42:51What One thing I note, you know, the we-
- 42:53the reason that we were successful in in
- 42:55business intelligence is is we created
- 42:58systems that that would uh scan full
- 43:02relational databases and they would give
- 43:04you analytics
- 43:06against, you know, billions and hundreds
- 43:09of billions of records
- 43:11answering questions,
- 43:13you know, with a sophisticated
- 43:15relational calculus.
- 43:17And if you if you needed it, you know.
- 43:20If you know, you know. If you needed it,
- 43:22like you work in market research, you
- 43:24know that you needed it or you're a bank
- 43:26credit manager. So, the customers knew
- 43:28they needed it. But all all of the
- 43:31competitors we had didn't think it was a
- 43:34good idea.
- 43:36It's like it's a product that your
- 43:39customer needs
- 43:41or what I joke is is something everybody
- 43:43needs
- 43:45nobody can stop, but nobody understands.
- 43:48Right? And so
- 43:50I could I used to joke, I could bring
- 43:53all of our competitors into a conference
- 43:55room. I could lecture them for 8 hours
- 43:57on what our product did, explain it in
- 44:00minutiae detail,
- 44:02and they would look at me at the end of
- 44:03the 8 hours and say, "That's a bad idea.
- 44:06Why would anybody want that?
- 44:09And it's like it's not a question of
- 44:11keeping the idea secret. Literally
- 44:13everybody that looked at it would have
- 44:15said, "I'm not going to do that." And by
- 44:18the way, our business today is exactly
- 44:20that, right? Like I can literally say
- 44:23we're creating digital credit on top of
- 44:25digital capital to give people
- 44:28to create digital money to slurp up $30
- 44:32trillion of capital and we can basically
- 44:36generate $20 billion of of
- 44:40income with 12 people,
- 44:43you know, in a year.
- 44:45And everybody's like, "Well, why would
- 44:46you want to do that?"
- 44:48That's stupid.
- 44:49That'll never work.
- 44:51I could you know, I could even do it you
- 44:53know, like we had a $500 million company
- 44:56and now we're like 80 billion and people
- 44:58are telling me online every day of my
- 45:00life, "You're stupid."
- 45:02>> [laughter]
- 45:03>> It's not going to work.
- 45:03>> I'm like like
- 45:06Wait a minute, we made like $80 billion,
- 45:08but you're stupid. Why would you want to
- 45:09Bitcoin went from 150 billion to a
- 45:12trillion. That's stupid.
- 45:14And and so the best ideas are ones that
- 45:18are innovative enough.
- 45:21They use a new technology
- 45:23and they have a new
- 45:25We're creating credit money. When's the
- 45:27last time you did it? Well, the gold
- 45:28people did it 300 years ago. No one did
- 45:30it in the last 100 years. Okay, you're
- 45:32stupid.
- 45:33Okay.
- 45:35It's not you know, it's not
- 45:36unprecedented. It's just you haven't
- 45:38seen it in your life, but that doesn't
- 45:40mean that it isn't
- 45:42You know, STRC is the first dividend
- 45:44bearing stock that had a variable credit
- 45:46spread. That's stupid.
- 45:48There's 25,000 dividend bearing stocks
- 45:51that are more valuable that have a fixed
- 45:52credit spread. It's just Well, why did
- 45:55you do it? Well, you know, because it
- 45:57seemed like a good idea at the time. So
- 46:00I really think the killer the killer
- 46:02businesses and I think Peter Thiel says
- 46:04this a lot. He's like, "The best
- 46:05businesses are these businesses that no
- 46:07one ever conceived of. It's like, that's
- 46:08stupid. That's impossible. Why would you
- 46:10do that?"
- 46:12And and of course the iron ironic ones
- 46:14are the ones where even 5 years after
- 46:17you've done it, people still think it's
- 46:18a stupid idea. And and Apple was like
- 46:22that with the iPhone. People thought it
- 46:23wasn't going to work. 5 years after they
- 46:25did it. Amazon
- 46:27for a decade after Amazon was like doing
- 46:30home delivery, everybody on Wall Street
- 46:32said, "That's a stupid business. They'll
- 46:34never make money on that. That doesn't
- 46:35make sense." With streaming video at
- 46:37Netflix, they said the same thing about
- 46:39it.
- 46:40You know, so
- 46:41what you want is you want to do
- 46:44something which is truly innovative that
- 46:47that your parents never could have done.
- 46:49And if conventional wisdom is, "You're
- 46:51out of your [ __ ] mind."
- 46:54You know, then then it might work. And
- 46:57and and the question really is
- 47:00well, how do you get 5 years or 10 years
- 47:02so that you can actually build a
- 47:04franchise without getting copied by
- 47:06people with more money and power and
- 47:08talent you. Do something that they're so
- 47:10afraid of that they
- 47:12like they recoil in horror.
- 47:15Like if you want to copy us, take a
- 47:16hundred billion dollars, buy a hundred
- 47:18billion dollars of Bitcoin, take the
- 47:20company public, and then sell the credit
- 47:21instruments. Like, what are you kidding?
- 47:24Like, by the way, I've tried to convince
- 47:26companies to buy a billion dollars of
- 47:28Bitcoin for 6 years. You know how hard
- 47:31it is to get anybody to buy a billion
- 47:33dollars of Bitcoin? Insanely difficult.
- 47:37And so we just go do something that
- 47:39requires like a hundred billion dollars.
- 47:41And so so because they think you're just
- 47:44so crazy, they're not going to chase
- 47:46after you. And because they're not going
- 47:48to chase after you, you get to go you
- 47:51get to go from being the small player
- 47:55with none of the assets in the space to
- 47:57being the bigger player
- 48:00because you had the courage
- 48:02and the clarity
- 48:04and the conviction
- 48:06to go to someplace nobody's gone before
- 48:09in order to in order to
- 48:11cars will never drive themselves. That's
- 48:13crazy.
- 48:14Oops, it looks like they're going to
- 48:15drive themselves.
- 48:17You know, yeah, you just have to go
- 48:19somewhere that's a good place where
- 48:21where customers will be happy that they
- 48:24want that magic product and you just
- 48:26have to have the courage to go there
- 48:29and if you go there
- 48:31the first 3 years, they can still crush
- 48:34you. Like people could still come in
- 48:35with more capital if they wanted.
- 48:37But if it's novel enough
- 48:40>> [snorts]
- 48:40>> you could literally go on television
- 48:42describe to everybody in the world what
- 48:43you're doing and they'll be like, you're
- 48:45crazy.
- 48:46We're not doing that.
- 48:48And and and that's why you'll be
- 48:50successful, I think. To agree with you,
- 48:52you just want to be right.
- 48:55>> Yes, sir. Q&A, who has questions?
- 48:59>> [snorts]
- 49:00>> Yes, get up please. You get you'll get a
- 49:02microphone one second.
- 49:07Hello. Um yeah, I have my question is
- 49:11why break the streak now and why 32 and
- 49:14not 21?
- 49:19>> Um so why do we sell 32 Bitcoin?
- 49:23We
- 49:23We sold 32 Bitcoin because over the
- 49:27course of a year
- 49:30if we're able to sell Bitcoin to fund
- 49:33the dividends on the credit, the credit
- 49:36becomes more credit worthy. If we're
- 49:39able to sell the Bitcoin to actually
- 49:41support the equity, the equity premium
- 49:43expands. If people
- 49:46if we take the position that we will
- 49:48never sell the Bitcoin, then we end up
- 49:51with $60 billion of an impaired asset.
- 49:54And if we impair our own asset, it gets
- 49:56marked to zero by the credit rating
- 49:58agencies. And it gets marked to zero by
- 50:00the credit investors. If I literally
- 50:02said to you, I promise to never sell
- 50:05Bitcoin, then the short sellers of the
- 50:08stock would say, he's basically got to
- 50:10sell the stock. And so I can sell the
- 50:12stock with impunity even if it trades at
- 50:14a 95% discount to NAV. And that means
- 50:17they would short the stock to $1 a
- 50:19share. And if the short sellers thought
- 50:21that they they could do that without
- 50:23fear,
- 50:25then they would allocate $100 of capital
- 50:28to do it. And if they did it, then my
- 50:30long equity investors would say, why do
- 50:33we want to hold a stock that's going to
- 50:35a dollar a share? We'll just sell it.
- 50:37And so the equity investors in the
- 50:39equity capital markets would walk away
- 50:41from MSTR if I refuse to defend the
- 50:45stock. It's It's like what if I said to
- 50:47you, is it okay if I steal all of your
- 50:49Bitcoin? coin and will you just give it
- 50:51to me without a fight? And you said,
- 50:53that is fine. I won't fight.
- 50:56You know? Then we would just take your
- 50:57stuff.
- 50:58Right? And so if we if we refuse to
- 51:02defend our equity, then the equity will
- 51:05go to zero. If the equity goes to zero,
- 51:09then I can't sell equity to pay the
- 51:10dividend. If I promise not to sell the
- 51:12Bitcoin to pay the dividend and I won't
- 51:14sell the equity to pay the dividend,
- 51:16then the people holding the credit
- 51:18instrument won't get paid. The The
- 51:20credit will go to zero. I can't sell the
- 51:22credit. So another way to say it is, if
- 51:26I'm willing to use my capital in order
- 51:30to support the credit dividend or to
- 51:33defend the equity, the credit and the
- 51:35equity markets will abandon the company.
- 51:38If the credit market abandons the
- 51:40company,
- 51:41then the then the business can't
- 51:43generate
- 51:45um a Bitcoin gain. If I don't If I sell
- 51:48$10 billion of credit, we make 10
- 51:49billion a year or 20 billion a year. If
- 51:52If the equity market thinks I can
- 51:54continue to do that for a decade, they
- 51:56can value the company at $200 billion.
- 51:59Then I can sell 50 billion of equity.
- 52:02Then I can sell another 100 billion of
- 52:04credit. Then I can buy $300 billion of
- 52:06Bitcoin. Then the Bitcoin goes to a
- 52:08million a share. A million a coin,
- 52:10right? So, it's pretty obvious why you
- 52:12want the credit to work. It's pretty
- 52:15obvious why you want the equity to work.
- 52:18And so,
- 52:20if I didn't buy $20 billion of Bitcoin
- 52:23each year,
- 52:25would that be worse than selling 32
- 52:29Bitcoin a year?
- 52:33It's like
- 52:35Yeah, or another way to say it is
- 52:37>> [snorts]
- 52:38>> is, um,
- 52:39we're generally, uh, in a situation
- 52:42where we have, uh, we have to show that
- 52:45we'll defend the credit and we'll defend
- 52:47the equity in order to achieve the
- 52:50confidence of the credit investors and
- 52:52the equity investors. If If If all we
- 52:55did was say, "We're going to never sell
- 52:59Bitcoin." The equity would collapse, the
- 53:01credit would collapse, and the company
- 53:02would stop raising any capital. And
- 53:05instead of buying
- 53:07$25 billion of Bitcoin a year, we would
- 53:09buy $0 of Bitcoin a year. And so, if
- 53:12that happens for 10 years in a row and
- 53:13we stop growing 30%, that means instead
- 53:16of buying $500 billion of Bitcoin over
- 53:19the next 10 years, we'll buy $0 of
- 53:20Bitcoin. And that means the price of
- 53:22Bitcoin will be
- 53:2470,000 instead of 700,000. So,
- 53:28what's best for Bitcoin?
- 53:30Clearly, for us to make it go to a
- 53:33million a coin. And we can't You can't
- 53:36make it go to a million a coin without
- 53:40money, right? I I I say
- 53:43the
- 53:45the war to determine the future of money
- 53:47is going to be fought and won with
- 53:50money.
- 53:52Right? So, we need capital from the
- 53:54credit markets and the equity markets.
- 53:57You have to respect the credit markets
- 53:59and the equity markets. So, the logical
- 54:02thing for a company to do
- 54:05is
- 54:06you sell a billion of credit, you buy a
- 54:08billion of Bitcoin, you invest it, the
- 54:11Bitcoin appreciates, and then
- 54:13if it's in the best interest of the
- 54:15company to sell the equity at a premium
- 54:18to the Bitcoin to pay the credit
- 54:19dividend, that's what you do. And if
- 54:21it's in the best interest of the company
- 54:23to sell highly appreciated Bitcoin to
- 54:25pay the credit dividend, that's what you
- 54:27do.
- 54:29And uh
- 54:31you know, why
- 54:32why would I not give this advice to you
- 54:35as the retail investor or the
- 54:37individual? It's like, you're not
- 54:39running a public company selling credit
- 54:41instruments and managing tax
- 54:43obligations,
- 54:44you know, and equity investors. If
- 54:46you're a family or an individual,
- 54:49don't sell your Bitcoin. Keep the
- 54:51Bitcoin unless you're going to go Yeah,
- 54:53you know, I get that. Right? There to 8
- 54:55billion people By By the way, to myself,
- 54:59you know, I haven't sold my Bitcoin. I'm
- 55:02not selling my own Bitcoin. But the
- 55:04point is, I'm not issuing credit
- 55:06instruments with a dividend that gets
- 55:08paid, you know, twice a month to credit
- 55:11investors with the S&P credit rating
- 55:13agency recommending to insurance
- 55:16companies, endowments, and hedge funds
- 55:18whether they should buy the credit.
- 55:21Right? And so, a corporation,
- 55:24you know,
- 55:25a corporation ought to manage its
- 55:29operations to the benefit of its
- 55:31shareholders because that way you can
- 55:33raise capital. And if the purpose of the
- 55:35company is to buy Bitcoin and if the
- 55:38money's coming from credit investors and
- 55:40equity investors, then you have to give
- 55:43them what they want and what the credit
- 55:45investors want
- 55:47is they want to know that we're able to
- 55:50sell Bitcoin to pay that credit
- 55:53dividend, otherwise their credit's
- 55:54worthless. And what the equity investors
- 55:57want to know is that the credit
- 55:59investors trust us and the credit
- 56:01investors want to buy the credit,
- 56:03otherwise the equity doesn't trade at a
- 56:05premium. And also So, the equity
- 56:08investors want the credit business to
- 56:10work.
- 56:12And the And the equity investors also
- 56:14want us to protect them against the
- 56:16short sellers. If a short seller were to
- 56:19short my stock to a dollar
- 56:23and if I could sell a thousand Bitcoin,
- 56:25buy the stock back, bankrupt the short
- 56:27seller, and then make all the equity
- 56:29investors rich
- 56:32and I refuse to do it because a troll on
- 56:34Twitter said
- 56:35You said never sell your Bitcoin.
- 56:37Like, okay, fine. I'll destroy a billion
- 56:39dollar a hundred billion dollar company
- 56:41so that I don't sell my Bitcoin. You
- 56:43know? Well, the point is I said to By
- 56:46the way, I said to you never sell your
- 56:48Bitcoin. I never said that the company
- 56:51wouldn't sell its Bitcoin and anybody
- 56:53that's been listening to our earnings
- 56:55calls or reading our disclosures or has
- 56:58half a brain knows for the last five
- 57:01years we've been very clear that of
- 57:03course we sell the Bitcoin if we have to
- 57:05as fiduciaries. So, this entire thing is
- 57:09really just a Twitter trolling exercise
- 57:13because it's because if you're a Twitter
- 57:15troll, it's very convenient to say, "Ha,
- 57:17you said never sell the Bitcoin and then
- 57:19you sold some." And that's very
- 57:21interesting and it's not very
- 57:23interesting to have a discussion about
- 57:27how you sell a hundred billion dollars
- 57:30worth of digital credit or a trillion
- 57:32dollars worth of digital credit and
- 57:35create a multi-trillion dollar publicly
- 57:37traded
- 57:39treasury company. Right, that that is
- 57:42not in their wheelhouse. They're not
- 57:44going to get at that, but but I
- 57:46guarantee you that
- 57:48if [clears throat] you created a gold
- 57:49treasury company and you
- 57:53invested a hundred billion dollars of
- 57:54gold and you issued gold back credit and
- 57:56then you told everybody you would never
- 57:57sell the gold to pay the dividend, no
- 57:59one would buy the credit. And if you
- 58:01have an equity an equity capital company
- 58:05and then you say and you should credit
- 58:07against it and you say,
- 58:08"If you went to your bank and you said I
- 58:10want to borrow a million dollars and
- 58:13I'll pledge a ten million dollar equity
- 58:15portfolio, but I'm unwilling to sell the
- 58:17equity to pay back the debt if you ask
- 58:20for it, they wouldn't give you the
- 58:21loan."
- 58:23And it's kind of common sense. It's like
- 58:25if you went to the bank and said I would
- 58:27like a million dollars to buy a house,
- 58:30but I'm not willing to mortgage the
- 58:31house. I'm not willing to pledge the
- 58:34house as collateral. Just give me the
- 58:36money.
- 58:37You wouldn't get the money. And so
- 58:41this is not controversial with anybody
- 58:44who's a rational investor or a
- 58:47thoughtful person. Everybody knows you
- 58:50have to pledge the collateral in order
- 58:52to get the credit. And if the business
- 58:55is issuing the credit and it's unwilling
- 58:57to pledge collateral or use the
- 58:59collateral to back credit, the business
- 59:01is worthless.
- 59:03And if the business is worthless, we
- 59:05can't be the biggest buyer of Bitcoin in
- 59:07the world. And so what we're doing is
- 59:10good for Bitcoin, good for the credit,
- 59:12it's good for the credit markets.
- 59:15It's good for the equity markets. It's
- 59:17good for the capital markets. It simply
- 59:20requires
- 59:22that you hold multiple complex ideas in
- 59:25your head at the same time.
- 59:27>> Last question? Yep.
- 59:29>> Hi.
- 59:30What would you say to the people that
- 59:32said that strategies are systemic risk
- 59:35for Bitcoin?
- 59:38>> Yeah, I I I just don't see how it could
- 59:40be a
- 59:41By the way,
- 59:43how much Bitcoin has BlackRock sold in
- 59:45the past 3 months?
- 59:50Like, do you know for every Bitcoin we
- 59:52sold
- 59:53other actors in the market have sold a
- 59:55thousand, right? A thousand X. Actually,
- 59:582,000 X. So, in the middle of a bear
- 1:00:02market, you know, Bitcoin crashed from
- 1:00:05120,000 to 60,000 and we sold 32 Bitcoin
- 1:00:08and the same time we bought about
- 1:00:10250,000 Bitcoin. So, in the middle of
- 1:00:13the bear market, you know, we have
- 1:00:15bought net 250,000 Bitcoin or something.
- 1:00:18In what way are we a systemic risk?
- 1:00:21Right?
- 1:00:22Right? In fact, we're the ones that are
- 1:00:24keeping the market from crashing more.
- 1:00:26We're the We're the biggest buyer of
- 1:00:28Bitcoin this year. So, we're not a risk
- 1:00:31to the market. We're actually a shock
- 1:00:33absorber to the market. Our equity and
- 1:00:36our credit is keeping Bitcoin from
- 1:00:38crashing from 120,000 to 30,000.
- 1:00:42Right? If we weren't here in the market,
- 1:00:46you would see What do you think would
- 1:00:48happen if we basically sold 250,000
- 1:00:51Bitcoin right now to the other
- 1:00:53investors? If we had actually dumped
- 1:00:55250,000 Bitcoin, the people that dumped
- 1:00:5975,000 Bitcoin out of BlackRock would
- 1:01:02have sold another 75,000.
- 1:01:04The market would be sitting at 20,000.
- 1:01:07And so, no, we're not the We're not a
- 1:01:09systemic risk. We're We're a systemic um
- 1:01:13systemic uh source of power
- 1:01:17and robustness. We're a We're a
- 1:01:19supporting structure for the market
- 1:01:23right now.
- 1:01:24Our company is damping the volatility
- 1:01:27and creating the liquidity, holding the
- 1:01:30price, right? We spent $64 billion in 5
- 1:01:35years. What if we hadn't spent $64
- 1:01:37billion?
- 1:01:39If we hadn't spent the 64 billion, you
- 1:01:41think the people at the ETFs would have
- 1:01:43spent 100 billion?
- 1:01:45Because by the way, you know who was
- 1:01:46buying the ETFs?
- 1:01:48A lot of them were the hedge funds
- 1:01:50shorting our stock. So, there were
- 1:01:52people shorting 25 billion of
- 1:01:55MSTR and buying 25 billion of IBIT as
- 1:01:59the pair trade.
- 1:02:01So, in fact, what we've been doing is
- 1:02:04attracting derivative capital,
- 1:02:07uh credit capital,
- 1:02:10equity capital, commodity capital,
- 1:02:13and we're always counter-trading the
- 1:02:15market, right? We're always buying when
- 1:02:17other people are selling, when no one
- 1:02:19else would buy, we're the ones that are
- 1:02:21buying, when the market is overvalued,
- 1:02:24when when Bitcoin is trading 120,000,
- 1:02:26we're buying, right? We're actually the
- 1:02:29ones that are creating the liquidity.
- 1:02:31So,
- 1:02:32so I economically, I don't think we're a
- 1:02:34systemic risk, I think we're a systemic
- 1:02:37asset to the market. Politically,
- 1:02:41you know, we're the ones that got fair
- 1:02:43value accounting for for Bitcoin.
- 1:02:46Without it, no no public or private
- 1:02:48company on the GAAP standard could even
- 1:02:50buy it,
- 1:02:51right? And so, we're actually advocating
- 1:02:55to fix the accounting, we're fixing the
- 1:02:57credit, we're fixing the tax, we're the
- 1:03:01ones advocating to avoid an unrealized
- 1:03:03capital gains tax on Bitcoin for
- 1:03:05institutional holders,
- 1:03:07right? We're the ones standing between,
- 1:03:11you know,
- 1:03:12the Bitcoin community and any powerful
- 1:03:16politician that might decide just to
- 1:03:18pass a law depriving you of the right to
- 1:03:21have it.
- 1:03:23Right? So,
- 1:03:25and we're not the only ones, right? I
- 1:03:27mean, Coinbase is fighting that fight,
- 1:03:30BlackRock is fighting that fight. But at
- 1:03:33the end of the day,
- 1:03:35in China, by the way, we're not in
- 1:03:37China. China makes it illegal to buy
- 1:03:39Bitcoin or sell it
- 1:03:41in China. There's no BlackRock or
- 1:03:44strategy in China. So,
- 1:03:47what happens when someone that doesn't
- 1:03:50like you puts a one-paragraph,
- 1:03:53you know, piece of language in the next
- 1:03:55appropriations bill that makes it
- 1:03:57illegal for you to own Bitcoin or hold
- 1:03:59your private keys or taxes at a 20%
- 1:04:02unrealized gains or just takes it away
- 1:04:04from you?
- 1:04:07Right? Who do you think's going to fix
- 1:04:09that problem? And the answer is
- 1:04:12a large publicly traded company, whether
- 1:04:14it's Coinbase, whether it's BlackRock,
- 1:04:17whether it's whether it's strategy,
- 1:04:20you know, whether it's, you know,
- 1:04:22Fidelity, not public, maybe it's it's
- 1:04:24going to be a bank, Morgan Stanley or
- 1:04:27Charles Schwab that has a
- 1:04:29Bitcoin-related business,
- 1:04:31they're going to pick up the phone, call
- 1:04:33a senator, and say, "This is an unfair,
- 1:04:36inappropriate, ill-advised measure.
- 1:04:39Please fix this."
- 1:04:41Right? And it's it's not going to be a
- 1:04:43Bitcoin fundamentalist. It's not going
- 1:04:45to be a crypto anarchist. It's not going
- 1:04:48to be a a nim on Twitter
- 1:04:52that actually's tweeting from an account
- 1:04:54that's XXY something something, you
- 1:04:58know, Satoshi was here, right?
- 1:05:01They're not going to provide that
- 1:05:04political protection, the economic
- 1:05:06protection.
- 1:05:07Yeah, you know who actually paid in
- 1:05:10order to defend the community and the
- 1:05:12Bitcoin devs against uh Craig Wright's
- 1:05:15lawsuits.
- 1:05:16Us.
- 1:05:18Block, you know, I mean
- 1:05:20>> [applause]
- 1:05:22>> By By the way, that to give full credit,
- 1:05:25right? I mean, Jack Dorsey, Square,
- 1:05:27Block, you know, lead that was a COPA
- 1:05:30initiative. But, the people that are
- 1:05:32putting up the money are are Coinbase,
- 1:05:36our strategy, you know, our Block.
- 1:05:39They're They're these publicly traded
- 1:05:41companies that are actually funding the
- 1:05:44legal advocacy, the political advocacy,
- 1:05:47the accounting advocacy,
- 1:05:50the tax advocacy,
- 1:05:52right? And the economic advocacy. We're
- 1:05:56the
- 1:05:57Why do you think those banks are
- 1:05:59actually allowing you, you know, to buy
- 1:06:02Bitcoin or allowing anybody to buy
- 1:06:04Bitcoin? It's like we're the ones going
- 1:06:06to Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan and City
- 1:06:11and Bank of America and Charles Schwab,
- 1:06:14right? And fill in the blank. Every one
- 1:06:17of those it is a corporation
- 1:06:21that's on the Bitcoin standard or
- 1:06:23supports Bitcoin and they're all
- 1:06:25fighting in order to get in order to
- 1:06:29legitimize Bitcoin as an asset.
- 1:06:33And so, it you know, if you're a if
- 1:06:35you're a fundamentalist or an anarchist
- 1:06:37and you just hate corporations and you
- 1:06:39hate banks and you hate anybody, you
- 1:06:42know,
- 1:06:43that wears a suit,
- 1:06:45well,
- 1:06:46when the suit coiners disappear,
- 1:06:49it's going to be illegal for you to
- 1:06:51actually own, trade, custody Bitcoin,
- 1:06:55right? And And if you think it doesn't
- 1:06:57happen, go to Cuba, go to North Korea,
- 1:07:01go to China,
- 1:07:03right? And then make all of your
- 1:07:05arguments there and see how it works
- 1:07:06out. We
- 1:07:08We We have a free
- 1:07:11capitalist system because there are
- 1:07:14advocates that are fighting
- 1:07:16every day
- 1:07:18in every venue. We're fighting in
- 1:07:20mainstream media. We're fighting on
- 1:07:22Capitol Hill. We're fighting in the
- 1:07:25court systems.
- 1:07:27You know, it's like someone wants to
- 1:07:30There's a lawsuit in New York you might
- 1:07:31have read where someone wants to
- 1:07:32basically seize all of the all Satoshi's
- 1:07:35wallets as unclaimed property to the
- 1:07:38city of New York.
- 1:07:40It's not an anonymous, you know, crypto
- 1:07:43anarchist on Twitter that's going to pay
- 1:07:45to actually fight that lawsuit, right?
- 1:07:48And go to the mayor of New York and go
- 1:07:50to the circuit court and appeal up to
- 1:07:52the Supreme Court to fight those things.
- 1:07:54Those are suit coiners. They're
- 1:07:56corporations that are doing that. So,
- 1:07:59no, I I do not accept for one moment the
- 1:08:03fact that we're a systemic risk. We are
- 1:08:06simply the extension of the Bitcoin
- 1:08:09network into uh the entire free market
- 1:08:13system.
- 1:08:14And what you ought to hope for is that
- 1:08:17millions of companies, hundreds of
- 1:08:19countries,
- 1:08:21thousands of municipalities,
- 1:08:23hundreds of thousands of institutions
- 1:08:26all adopt Bitcoin because they're the
- 1:08:28ones that are going to legitimize
- 1:08:31the asset, commercialize the asset, and
- 1:08:34defend the asset against your your
- 1:08:37enemies. So, when when someone decides
- 1:08:39they just want to put an unrealized
- 1:08:41capital gains tax of 100% on Bitcoin
- 1:08:43because they're mad at something that
- 1:08:45somebody on Bitcoin Twitter said,
- 1:08:48right? You're not going to You're not
- 1:08:50going to tweet back at them.
- 1:08:52Right? [snorts] I mean, tweeting at
- 1:08:54people is not a way to defend your
- 1:08:56rights, trust me. That's not the way it
- 1:08:59works. You're literally going to have to
- 1:09:01resort to political or legal or economic
- 1:09:05means, and that means you're going to
- 1:09:07need people that don't reject legal
- 1:09:11power, political power, political
- 1:09:14activity, and economic activity as a
- 1:09:16means to succeed in this world.
- 1:09:20>> Thank you so much, Michael, for
- 1:09:21everything you're doing for the
- 1:09:22industry. Thank you for the time and
- 1:09:24advice, and thank you all for listening.
- 1:09:25Have a good day.
- 1:09:27>> [applause]
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