Every Formation Has a Predator (What Beats What in Football) — Transcript

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1. 0:00Every formation in football has a
2. 0:02predator,
3. 0:04a shape that's built to eat it alive.
4. 0:07The 352 eats the 4231.
5. 0:11The 433 eats the 352.
6. 0:15But here's the thing nobody tells you.
7. 0:17Every predator is somebody else's prey.
8. 0:21So today, we follow the food chain.
9. 0:24Seven formations, seven predators, one
10. 0:27circle.
11. 0:29And at the end, the real question. Is
12. 0:32there a formation that nothing can beat?
13. 0:35Let's start with the oldest shape still
14. 0:37standing.
15. 0:41Link one, the 442.
16. 0:45Two banks of four and two strikers.
17. 0:48Every player has a lane and every lane
18. 0:51is covered.
19. 0:52Out wide, it's solid. Two players on
20. 0:55each flank doubling up. But look at the
21. 0:58middle. Two central midfielders. That's
22. 1:01all. Enter the predator, the diamond.
23. 1:06Four midfielders, all of them central.
24. 1:09Against two, that's four against two in
25. 1:11the middle. And the man at the tip lives
26. 1:14in the gap between the two banks. It's
27. 1:16nobody's job to mark him. So, someone
28. 1:20has to step out. And the moment he does,
29. 1:23the 442 has a hole.
30. 1:26In 2003, Carlo Anchelotti's Milan won
31. 1:30the Champions League with a diamond and
32. 1:32Andrea Pillo at its base.
33. 1:36But the diamond paid for the middle with
34. 1:38something else with
35. 1:45link two. the diamond.
36. 1:48Four in midfield, two up front, and
37. 1:50nobody wide in front of the fullbacks.
38. 1:53Through the middle, it's a wall. Four
39. 1:56bodies packed together,
40. 1:58but each fullback has to cover a whole
41. 2:01flank on his own. Enter the predator,
42. 2:04the 4231.
43. 2:07Two wingers stay high and wide. Now,
44. 2:10every fullback has two attackers to deal
45. 2:12with. winger and fullback together. Two
46. 2:16against one on both sides
47. 2:19and the double pivot sits behind it all.
48. 2:22So the diamond can't break through the
49. 2:24middle.
50. 2:25In 2010, Vicente del Bosque Spain won
51. 2:29the World Cup in a 42-31 with Buset and
52. 2:32Shabi Alonso as the pivot.
53. 2:36But the 42-31 asks one man to do a job
54. 2:40meant for two, the striker.
55. 2:46Link three, the 42-31.
56. 2:51Two holding midfielders, three attacking
57. 2:53midfielders, and one striker at the top.
58. 2:57It's balanced. The pivot protects, so
59. 2:59the four in front can attack without
60. 3:01fear.
61. 3:03But up front, one striker has to press
62. 3:05the whole back line on his own. Enter
63. 3:09the predator, the 352.
64. 3:12Three center backs against one striker.
65. 3:15Two of them are always free to build.
66. 3:18The wing backs push on behind the
67. 3:20wingers and two strikers pin both center
68. 3:23backs so nobody is spare.
69. 3:26Free at the back, two on two up front.
70. 3:29The 4231 is stretched at both ends.
71. 3:33In 2021, Antonio Conte's in won Sira
72. 3:37with a 352 and ended Juventus run of
73. 3:40nine straight titles.
74. 3:44But the 352 asks one player to cover an
75. 3:47entire flank, the wing back.
76. 3:54Link four, the 352.
77. 3:58three center backs, two wing backs,
78. 4:00three in midfield, and two strikers.
79. 4:04It always has a spare man at the back
80. 4:05and a crowded middle.
81. 4:08But out wide, there's one man for the
82. 4:10whole touch line. Enter the Predator,
83. 4:14the 4-33.
84. 4:16The winger pins the wing back. The
85. 4:18fullback joins him. Two against one on
86. 4:21the outside.
87. 4:23And the front three go man for man on
88. 4:25the back three. Suddenly, nobody's
89. 4:28spare. So, the 352 drops into a back
90. 4:31five and stops attacking altogether.
91. 4:35In 2020, Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool won
92. 4:38the league in a 4-33 with 99 points,
93. 4:42their first title in 30 years.
94. 4:46But the 433 pushes so many players
95. 4:49forward, it leaves something behind.
96. 4:51Space.
97. 4:56Link five, the 4-33.
98. 5:00Fullbacks high, wingers wide, and a
99. 5:03front three pressing from the first
100. 5:04second.
101. 5:06It pins you in your own half and wins
102. 5:08the ball back close to your goal.
103. 5:11But behind those fullbacks, there's
104. 5:13grass. Acres of it. Enter the predator,
105. 5:17the low block.
106. 5:19Five at the back, four in front of them.
107. 5:22Sit deep. give away the ball and wait.
108. 5:25Win it back and one pass goes into the
109. 5:28space behind the fullbacks before anyone
110. 5:30can recover.
111. 5:32The 4-33 has all the ball. The low block
112. 5:35has all the chances.
113. 5:38In 2010, Jose Mourinho's in knocked out
114. 5:41Guardiola's Barcelona 3-1 at home, then
115. 5:4410 men at the camp no and through.
116. 5:48But a low block gives you the ball and
117. 5:51the right shape knows exactly what to do
118. 5:53with it.
119. 5:59Link six, the low block.
120. 6:0210 men behind the ball. Two compact
121. 6:05lines with no space between them and no
122. 6:08space behind them either. You can't run
123. 6:11in behind a team that's camped on its
124. 6:13own box.
125. 6:14But a back five can only cover five
126. 6:17lanes and the pitch has exactly five.
127. 6:21Enter the predator, the 235.
128. 6:25Five attackers, one in every lane. Each
129. 6:29defender in the back five is pinned by
130. 6:31one man.
131. 6:33Behind them, three midfielders circle
132. 6:35the edge of the box, ready to shoot or
133. 6:38switch the play.
134. 6:40Pin defenders can't step out. So the
135. 6:43half space opens and the cut back is on.
136. 6:47In 2018, Pep Guardiola's Manchester City
137. 6:50attacked like this every week. 100
138. 6:53points, 106 goals.
139. 6:57But a 235 leaves only two players at the
140. 7:00back. And that's where the circle turns.
141. 7:08Link seven, the 235.
142. 7:11Two center backs, three midfielders,
143. 7:14five across the front, everything in
144. 7:16your half. It suffocates you. Nine
145. 7:20players around your box.
146. 7:23But lose the ball and there's a whole
147. 7:25half of grass behind two defenders.
148. 7:28Enter the predator. You've met it
149. 7:30before. The 442.
150. 7:33Two banks of four soak it all up and two
151. 7:36strikers wait near the halfway line. Win
152. 7:39it back and it's two against two running
153. 7:42into an empty half. No spare man, no
154. 7:45cover, just a race.
155. 7:48In 2014, Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid
156. 7:52won La Liga with a 442 ahead of
157. 7:55Barcelona and Real Madrid.
158. 7:58And the 442 brings us right back to the
159. 8:01start where the diamond is waiting.
160. 8:08So that's the circle.
161. 8:11The diamond eats the 442. The 4231 eats
162. 8:15the diamond. The 352 eats the 4231.
163. 8:20The 433 eats the 352. The low block eats
164. 8:24the 433. The 235 eats the low block and
165. 8:29the 442 eats the 235.
166. 8:33So, is there a formation that nothing
167. 8:36can beat?
168. 8:38No. Every shape wins something and pays
169. 8:41for it somewhere else.
170. 8:44That's why the best coaches don't just
171. 8:46pick a formation. They pick the predator
172. 8:49for the team in front of them.
173. 8:52And when the other coach changes his
174. 8:54shape, they change theirs.
175. 8:56Football isn't a formation, it's a
176. 8:59chain. And the coach who moves first
177. 9:02wins.
178. 9:04Which link would you break? Tell me in
179. 9:06the comments. And if you want the next
180. 9:07file, subscribe.