YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Every Country, Ranked By How Screwed It Is

Every Country, Ranked By How Screwed It Is — Transcript

by OBF · 10,139 words · 1,651 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00I'm ranking 197 countries by how good
0:02they are over the next 10 years. Five
0:04colors will be used to rank them. Green,
0:06yellow, orange, red, and black. Green
0:08means probably fine. The country has
0:10problems, but it can afford to deal with
0:12them. Yellow means in trouble, but with
0:14a believable way out. Orange means one
0:16bad year away. A drought, an oil price
0:18spike, or a debt payment it can't make
0:21could tip it over. Red means screwed.
0:23Its problems are growing faster than it
0:25can fix them. And black means the crisis
0:28has already arrived. We're going from
0:30least to most screwed, starting with
0:32Switzerland. [music]
0:33Neutral, wealthy, and they are expecting
0:35a federal budget surplus this year,
0:37which I think mainly comes down to the
0:39$10 they charged me for a cup of coffee
0:41when I was there. It also has skilled
0:43workers, valuable companies, and a
0:45government that can afford to respond
0:47when things go wrong. Trouble with
0:49exports would hurt, but Switzerland has
0:51more ways to handle it than most. Green.
0:54Singapore gets green, too, which if
0:56you're an avid viewer of this channel
0:58might not surprise you. But if you're
0:59not, it does sound ridiculous when you
1:01list what Singapore is lacking. It's on
1:03very little land, has few natural
1:05resources, and it even imports water
1:08from Malaysia. But Singapore has spent
1:10decades making that fact less dangerous.
1:13It catches rain, removes salt from
1:15seawater, and recycles wastewater into
1:17water clean enough to drink. So, I'm not
1:19going to deduct points for this because
1:21they are preparing. It also has
1:22substantial savings and a government
1:25capable of getting these things built.
1:27Its neighbor, Malaysia, manufactures
1:29electronics, including important parts
1:31of the semiconductor supply chain. It
1:33also earns from other exports and
1:35businesses serving customers at home.
1:37Meaning, if one industry struggles, the
1:39country has several to fall back on.
1:41Green, as well. The Netherlands. More
1:43expensive housing, crowded
1:45infrastructure, and about 26% of the
1:47country below sea level. Those would
1:48normally sound like red flags, but the
1:50Dutch have spent centuries treating them
1:52as fun engineering challenges that they,
1:55of course, have solved. They also have
1:56successful companies including ASML
1:58which you may have heard of that makes
2:00the machines needed to produce the most
2:02advanced chips in the world and they get
2:04bonus points because I won a top
2:06training prize there a few years ago.
2:08Thanks guys. Green it is. Now to
2:10Denmark. After an extensive review by a
2:12panel consisting entirely of me, a Dane,
2:16I've decided to give us green. I'm not
2:18taking any questions. I wish it was that
2:20simple but it's not. There is a real
2:22concern with Denmark. Pharmaceuticals
2:24provided more than half of our economic
2:25growth in 2024. Depending that much on
2:28one industry means its problems become
2:30everyone's problems. In 2025 Novo
2:32announced thousands of job cuts and its
2:34share price fell sharply. Denmark still
2:36has low debt, strong public services and
2:39other [music] successful exporters and
2:40in September 2026 Denmark, Greenland and
2:43the US signed a security deal that ended
2:45the Greenland standoff. So in light of
2:47all this, I will be keeping us green.
2:49Unfortunately, Norway might deserve it
2:51more. It found oil, sold it and invested
2:54a huge amount of the money overseas. Its
2:56fund now owns roughly 1 and 1/2% of the
2:58world's listed shares. So [music]
3:01they're a strong green too. And let's
3:02remember that fund because later we'll
3:04meet another oil country with a savings
3:06account and a very different ending to
3:09Norway's. [music]
3:09Sweden also gets green. Its businesses
3:11sell machinery, telecoms equipment and
3:13plenty else the world needs. Even though
3:16IKEA has wasted my life away with these
3:17stupid manuals with drawings of people
3:19who look even more confused than me.
3:21I'm not deducting points for that. I was
3:23close but I will deduct a bit because
3:26households have borrowed heavily meaning
3:28higher interest rates could hurt them.
3:30But the government has relatively low
3:32debt and can help keep the economy
3:34moving through a downturn. Iceland has a
3:36rather unique advantage. Geothermal
3:38[music] energy and hydropower supply
3:40almost all its electricity while
3:42geothermal heat warms most homes. Cars,
3:44planes and fishing boats still need
3:46imported fuel, sure, but keeping the
3:49house warm doesn't. So green. Brunei,
3:51yeah, I bet you weren't expecting that
3:53one to come next, but it is the next one
3:55on the list because it has oil and gas
3:57savings spread across a small
3:59population. Eventually, it needs more
4:01ways to earn. This is true, but for our
4:0310-year window, it has substantial money
4:05to help build them. Green. Australia has
4:07food, energy, minerals, and relatively
4:10low government debt. I have to give them
4:12green as well. Yes, I know about the
4:14housing market and the fires, floods,
4:15and droughts, but they have several
4:17profitable industries and a government
4:19able to borrow money gives it ways to
4:21respond to these challenges. I'm keeping
4:23it green. Australians are welcome to be
4:25annoyed in the comments down below. New
4:26Zealand is a closer call, though. Being
4:29far from major markets makes trade
4:31expensive. Businesses have invested too
4:33little in equipment and technology to
4:35keep wages growing strongly, but the
4:37government can borrow to improve
4:38transport and other infrastructure. And
4:40its public institutions generally work.
4:43And narrow green.
4:44>> [music]
4:44>> Samoa might be the most surprising
4:46green, but tourism, money sent home from
4:48Samoans abroad, and a small economy
4:50exposed to disasters leaves it
4:52>> [music]
4:53>> in the green. But it also has low
4:54government debt and substantial foreign
4:56currency reserves that helps it keep
4:58buying essentials if a disaster
5:00interrupts its income. [music] It's a
5:01narrow green, but it is still green. And
5:04I'll compare it with other island
5:06nations later. Chile has copper to sell
5:08and credible financial institutions to
5:10help you through a downturn. [music]
5:11Uruguay has a dependable government and
5:14manageable borrowing risks. Paraguay has
5:16built up reserves, though a drought
5:17could hit both farming and hydropower
5:19quite hard. Costa Rica has attracted
5:21more sophisticated manufacturing, giving
5:23it better paid work beyond tourism and
5:25agriculture. Rising violent crime is a
5:28threat to that progress, but still I'm
5:29keeping it green like the other three.
5:31Ireland gets green as well, although
5:33anyone trying to buy a house there may
5:35disagree with me. Multinationals pay
5:37enormous amounts of tax that gives the
5:38government money to improve things, but
5:40if it hires more teachers with an
5:42unusually good year's tax receipts, it
5:44still owes those teachers a salary
5:45during an unusually bad year. For now,
5:48the finances are strong. Finding a house
5:50is still a problem, though. Luxembourg,
5:51Andorra, and Monaco also get green.
5:54Wealth and sound public finances give
5:56them considerable protection, even if
5:58finding an affordable home can be
5:59another matter. Then we have
6:01Liechtenstein. Virtually no public debt
6:03and government financial assets
6:04comfortably larger than its entire
6:06annual economy. Green. Cyprus gets our
6:09last green. Its economy has been growing
6:11and government debt has come down.
6:13Imported fuel still makes electricity
6:15vulnerable to price spikes, but it has
6:17improved its ability to absorb that
6:19cost. So, that's 22 greens who are all
6:22probably fine. So, let's move to yellow.
6:24In trouble with a believable way through
6:26it. Starting [music] with Botswana. For
6:29decades, diamonds helped fund road,
6:32school, and a genuine improvement in
6:34living standards. Then we got much
6:36better at making diamonds in factories.
6:37Great for the pockets of all the
6:39soon-to-be engaged, but an awkward
6:41development when your country earns a
6:43lot of its money from how difficult they
6:45used to be to find. Now, Botswana still
6:47has capable institutions and resources
6:49to respond, but it needs other exports
6:52before too much of its savings
6:54disappear. I'm marking it yellow. Bhutan
6:56is a weird one because they've come up
6:58with something rather creative. It's
7:00state investment company uses hydropower
7:02to mine Bitcoin. It's pretty simple.
7:04Water flows downhill, computers do their
7:06thing, the government gets Bitcoin out
7:07the other end. I can see the appeal. The
7:10problem, however, is that a roomful of
7:12mining computers doesn't employ a
7:14generation of young people. See, Bhutan
7:16is currently in need of more jobs that
7:18can persuade the young people to stay.
7:20So, yellow it is. Germany. [music]
7:22I did a whole video on them and their
7:24situation is not that hard to
7:26understand. Germany got rich by making
7:27things and selling them to the world.
7:29Now, energy costs more because of
7:31terrible decisions about power
7:32generation, making it really hard to
7:34stay competitive. On top of this,
7:35Chinese customers have become Chinese
7:37competitors, and their last major issue
7:39is that a large generation of workers is
7:41now retiring. By 2035, roughly a quarter
7:44of the population is projected to be 67
7:46or older. Germany still has engineers,
7:49successful companies, and more room to
7:51invest after changes to its borrowing
7:53rules. The question is whether it can
7:55pour concrete faster than it retires
7:57engineers. Yellow. Japan has been
8:00dealing with aging for years. Add to
8:02that an enormous government debt, and
8:04you might expect Japan to be much
8:06further down this list, but it also has
8:08valuable companies, accumulated wealth,
8:11and debts issued in yen. Its central
8:13bank can, of course, create yen, giving
8:15it ways to prevent a shortage of money
8:17from turning into a debt crisis. Overdo
8:20it, and inflation can make everyone
8:22poorer instead. There are limits here.
8:24Still, that is a much better position
8:26than owing dollars you can't produce,
8:28which is a serious problem that we will
8:30encounter later in the video. For now,
8:32Japan gets yellow. South Korea shows how
8:35much harder the aging problem can get. I
8:37made an entire video on this, as well.
8:39Essentially, South Korea makes cars,
8:41ships, and chips, all things that the
8:44world wants. But years of very low birth
8:46rates mean fewer young people available
8:48to keep doing it. Employers need staff,
8:50the military needs recruits, older
8:52people need care. [music] Its industries
8:54give it the money to invest in
8:56automation and help people stay in work
8:58longer, but even if everyone suddenly
9:00wanted more children, those children
9:01wouldn't become workers within this
9:03video's 10-year window. So, yellow it
9:06is. Back in Europe, Austria faces the
9:08same retirement bill with weak growth to
9:10help pay for it. That means pressure for
9:12higher taxes, more borrowing, or cuts
9:14elsewhere. Yellow. Czechia and Slovakia
9:17are probably worrying just as much about
9:18Germany as Germany is, seeing as their
9:20factories help supply it. Czechia sells
9:22machinery, cars, and components.
9:24Expensive energy and fewer orders can
9:27hit them hard. Slovakia makes more cars
9:29per person than any other country, but
9:31as buyers switch to electric models, its
9:33factories need the investment and skills
9:35to make them. Both yellow. Hungary has
9:38attracted factories, too, but investment
9:40fell in 2025 while the economy barely
9:43grew. The government has also been
9:44spending more than it collects.
9:46Borrowing can keep spending going for a
9:48while. Getting businesses to expand
9:50would give it a more lasting
9:51improvement, though. Poland has a
9:53stronger growth story. Wages are rising,
9:56investment is coming, and living
9:57standards have improved enormously. But,
10:00defense, public services, and pensions
10:02all need funding. Getting richer helps
10:04you afford more, just not everything at
10:06once. Yellow. Slovenia's factories need
10:09skilled workers. Its care homes need
10:11staff, too. As the population ages,
10:13there are fewer people available for
10:15both. Training and immigration can help,
10:18but they need to happen fast enough.
10:20Yellow. Now, let's move to the country
10:21that is making life harder for many of
10:24these factories and countries. China.
10:27Its manufacturers keep winning customers
10:29abroad while many people at home feel
10:31less financially secure. A big reason is
10:33housing. Families put their savings into
10:36homes, developers borrowed to build more
10:38of them, local governments made money
10:40selling developers the rights to use
10:41that land. Basically, everyone was doing
10:43well as long as the next apartment got
10:46sold. But, then the boom stalled. And,
10:48when that happened, families lost
10:50wealth, developers struggled to repay
10:52loans, and local governments lost
10:54income. [music]
10:55The schools and roads still needed
10:56paying for. Your country's car exports
10:58can break records while the apartments
11:00you put your savings into loses [music]
11:02value. Both things can happen at once,
11:04and they did with China. China also have
11:06fewer workers replacing older ones.
11:08[music] It has money, industrial
11:10expertise, and considerable power to
11:12change policy, but property, debt, and
11:14aging all need attention together.
11:17Yellow. While we're here, we might as
11:19well discuss Taiwan. A war is a real
11:21risk. If one broke out, it would damage
11:23trade, investment, and production even
11:26before anyone knew who was winning.
11:28We'll get to why the rest of us have a
11:29problem there, too, later. Until then,
11:32Italy has successful manufacturers and
11:34substantial private wealth. The
11:36government, however, has debt worth
11:37roughly 137%
11:40of the economy and very slow growth. I
11:42would say they probably need a new
11:43export blockbuster hit to go green, but
11:46I don't know what could top pasta.
11:48[music] So, yellow. Spain has stronger
11:51growth helped by tourism and
11:53immigration. More workers does help pay
11:55for an aging population, but they also
11:57need new homes and the construction
11:59hasn't kept
12:01want to live. Portugal has brought its
12:03government debt below 90% of the
12:05economy, down from 134% in 2020. That's
12:09a serious improvement. Housing is a less
12:11cheerful story, though. A home
12:13affordable to someone arriving with a
12:14foreign salary may be completely out of
12:16reach for the person serving them lunch.
12:19Portugal needs more homes and better
12:21paid work. Yellow. Greece's debt is
12:24still enormous, but it has come down
12:26sharply relative to the economy.
12:28Employment and investment have improved.
12:30We all remember Greece doing really
12:32badly, but they are now a yellow.
12:35Croatia earns a lot from tourism. That
12:37brings jobs and money, but coastal homes
12:39can become more profitable as holiday
12:41rentals than places for residents to
12:43live. And then there's the quality of
12:45the tourists. I should apologize here. A
12:47friend and I went to Croatia and decided
12:50renting Vespas would be a great idea to
12:52explore the mountains. It was a great
12:54day, but on the way back we took a wrong
12:57turn [music] and we ended up on the
13:00highways. Vespas are not meant for the
13:03highways. People were understandably
13:05[music] pretty pissed, but also confused
13:08and concerned. I've never been so
13:10stressed in my life, but thankfully
13:12nothing happened, but I'm so sorry,
13:14Croatia.
13:16You get yellow, and I'll stay off your
13:18highway. I I promise. North Macedonia
13:20and Bosnia and Herzegovina have the
13:23opposite problem of people traveling
13:25[music] to them. You see, too many leave
13:26them for better work opportunities and
13:28stay away. That means fewer workers and
13:31taxpayers at home. Bosnia's political
13:33divisions also make investment and
13:35reform harder. So, both yellow.
13:38Bulgaria's wages are rising, but its
13:40workforce is aging. Companies need
13:43better machinery and training so fewer
13:45workers can produce more. Though
13:46government debt gives it some ability to
13:48fund those improvements, so yellow.
13:51Romania has done a huge amount of
13:53catching up, but government spending ran
13:54far ahead of tax income. Closing that
13:57gap means tax increases and tighter
13:59spending, which leave households and
14:01businesses with less to spend
14:03themselves. Yellow. Albania combines two
14:05problems we've already seen. Tourists
14:07are arriving, skilled workers are
14:09leaving, but these are happening at
14:11once. More hotels help, but the country
14:13also needs year-round career-bound
14:16tourism and the construction. So,
14:18yellow. Now, India. After all those
14:21countries running short of young people,
14:23the world's largest population sounds
14:25like a fairly good thing to have.
14:27It can be. More workers, customers, a
14:30huge market for businesses at home.
14:32India already sells software and
14:35services to the rest of the world, and
14:36new roads, ports, and factories are
14:38going up across the country. But the
14:40thing is, AI complicates things quite a
14:42lot. It could help a small Indian
14:44startup do the work of a much bigger
14:46company, but it could also take over
14:47some of the outsourced work India sells
14:50abroad. So, all those people are only an
14:52advantage if enough of them find good
14:55jobs. Yellow. Nepal's economy is held up
14:58by people going abroad to work and
14:59sending money home. That pays for food,
15:02education, and houses of the families of
15:04these people. It also leaves families
15:05dependent on jobs and immigration rules
15:08in other countries. Yellow. Côte
15:10d'Ivoire has grown strongly. The next
15:12step is creating more well-paid work
15:14beyond its successful exports, so a good
15:17national growth figure becomes a better
15:19household income. Ghana has been
15:21recovering after restructuring its debt
15:23that gave it a chance to repair its
15:25finances and get investment moving
15:27again. Both yellow. Tanzania has a
15:29growing young population, too. Mining
15:32and tourism bring in money, but you need
15:33a lot of it to reach businesses that can
15:35actually employ people entering the
15:37workforce. More reliable power and
15:39transport would help those businesses
15:41expand. Yellow. South Africa has
15:43businesses ready to hire. The hard part
15:46is getting their products to the
15:47customer. Take your mine. It has the
15:49minerals. Someone wants to buy them. Now
15:52it just has to get them to the coast.
15:54The railway isn't moving enough freight,
15:56so more of it goes by truck, which costs
15:58more money. Then it reaches the port,
16:00which can hold everything up all over
16:01again. And for years businesses couldn't
16:03even rely on the electricity. So many
16:06bought their own generators. That's not
16:08ideal. Now the blackouts have eased.
16:10That is real progress, but the railways,
16:12ports, and water supplies still need
16:14fixing. And unemployment is still above
16:1730%.
16:18Yellow.
16:19Eswatini depends heavily on South Africa
16:22for trade and income, so those problems
16:24don't stop at the border. It also needs
16:26more jobs beyond a small number of
16:28industry. South Africa buys water from
16:30another neighbor, Lesotho. You think
16:32selling something that essential would
16:34put Lesotho in a good position? Well,
16:36find it considerably further down our
16:38list, so we'll get back to them later.
16:40For now, Morocco has something even more
16:43essential. An enormous share of the
16:45world's phosphate reserves. The US
16:47Geological Survey puts roughly 2/3 under
16:49Morocco, including disputed Western
16:52Sahara. Phosphorus goes into fertilizer.
16:54The world needs it to grow food.
16:56Unfortunately, Morocco also needs rain.
16:59Repeated drought hurts its own farms and
17:01pushes people to look for other work.
17:03Car manufacturing and tourism give it
17:05more ways to earn, but the new jobs have
17:07to reach people losing their old ones.
17:09Yellow.
17:11Zambia has copper the world wants.
17:13Between 80 and 85% of its electricity
17:15comes from hydropower, though, including
17:17the power its mines need. So, when
17:19drought hits, copper production suffers,
17:21too. That restructuring has held, but a
17:24valuable export still needs electricity.
17:26Namibia has uranium, diamonds, and a
17:29string of big oil discoveries of its
17:31coast. What it's short of is water and
17:33jobs. Turning these discoveries into an
17:36industry that employs people takes
17:38years. Jordan has extreme water scarcity
17:40and limited money to deal with it. It
17:42also has to keep the trade and tourism
17:43going in a region where war can undo a
17:46good year very quickly. Three yellows.
17:49All right, we've got 55 down. A proper
17:51analysis of Taiwan, the US, and Russia
17:53are all still to come. Before that, we
17:56have Indonesia that decided it was tired
17:58of selling raw nickel and watching other
18:00countries get the processing jobs. So,
18:02it banned exports of nickel ore. If you
18:04want the nickel, you have to build your
18:06factory here. So, companies did.
18:08Processing plants brought investment and
18:10kept more of the work inside Indonesia.
18:12[music] Well done. But, nickel is used
18:15in stainless steel and some electric car
18:17batteries, and battery makers have
18:19started doing something deeply
18:20inconsiderate to Indonesia, making more
18:22batteries without nickel.
18:25Nickel still has plenty of uses though,
18:26but a boom in electric cars won't
18:28automatically produce the boom in nickel
18:30demand you might expect. Fortunately,
18:33Indonesia [music] has a huge economy
18:34beyond mining with millions of customers
18:37at home. It can afford to get less out
18:39of nickel than it hoped. So, yellow.
18:41Vietnam has become very good at making
18:43things for customers abroad. That brings
18:45factories and jobs. It also means a
18:47tariff announced in another capital can
18:50threaten someone's overtime in Vietnam.
18:52And Vietnam is aging before becoming
18:55wealthy. It needs to turn those
18:56factories into better paid work before a
18:58smaller workforce has to support more
19:01retirees. Yellow. Thailand faces a
19:04similar race. Its car industry and
19:06tourism earn money, but an aging
19:08workforce needs better equipment and
19:10skills to keep income [music] rising.
19:12The Philippines has more young workers.
19:14It needs enough well-paid jobs for them
19:15as well, plus infrastructure that can
19:17survive repeated [music]
19:18storms. Cambodia has grown through
19:21exports, tourism, and construction.
19:23Weakness [music] is property, and
19:25troubled loans can make banks less
19:27willing to finance the next business.
19:29All three yellow.
19:30Maybe we're making this too complicated.
19:32Just find some oil, sell it, get rich. I
19:35mean, Norway managed it, so I mean, how
19:37difficult can it really be? Well, that
19:39brings us to Saudi Arabia, who is using
19:41its oil income to build tourism,
19:42factories, transport, and enormous
19:45construction projects, hoping they'll
19:46eventually support an economy less
19:48dependent on oil. This costs an enormous
19:51amount of money, which for now mostly
19:53brings us back to oil. It has
19:54substantial wealth and real progress
19:56beyond the oil sector. Yes, but lower
19:59oil income makes it harder to fund all
20:01those plans at once, so borrowing has
20:03helped fill the gap. And the exports
20:05still need a safe way out. Conflict that
20:07disrupts shipping can damage the
20:09business paying for the transformation,
20:11and they need to stop building these
20:13ridiculous mega projects. So, yellow.
20:16Guyana is much earlier in this process.
20:18New oil production has made its economy
20:20grow at an incredible speed. For a small
20:22population, that income could transform
20:24roads, hospitals, and schools. But the
20:26government has to manage the spending,
20:28get good value from construction, and
20:30avoid becoming dependent on oil prices
20:32staying high. Norway took decades to
20:35build its fund. Guyana now has the money
20:36to start building a much richer country
20:38[music] and every reason to get those
20:40early decisions right. Yellow. Kuwait is
20:43actually the OG in oil revenue being
20:45used for investments and got there
20:47before Norway, so [music] they have to
20:49get some credit for that. It has been
20:50building up investments abroad since
20:521953. That gives it money to draw on
20:54when oil income falls. Qatar has gas
20:57that customers need with exports exposed
21:00to [music] disruption around the Strait
21:01of Hormuz. United Arab Emirates has
21:03built finance, tourism, logistics,
21:05[music] and other businesses beyond oil.
21:08Those work best when people feel
21:09comfortable flying in and
21:11>> [music]
21:11>> ships can get through. Oman has brought
21:13its debt down and has ports outside
21:15Hormuz. [music]
21:16That improves its position, although a
21:18regional crisis still affects its
21:20customers and neighbors. All four
21:22yellow. Algeria shows another limit of
21:24the oil and gas plan. The exports can
21:27pay for government spending while
21:28employing only a small share of the
21:30population with jobs. Mauritania's gas
21:33gives it another source of income
21:35alongside fishing and mining. The gain
21:37depends on how much reaches the budget
21:39and what gets built in. Trinidad and
21:41Tobago has a long-established energy
21:44industry. Falling production means less
21:45money for public services, so it needs
21:47investment to get more out of its oil
21:49and gas fields. Three more yellows.
21:51Brazil has food, oil, minerals,
21:53manufacturing, and a huge market at
21:56home. They have it all, except cheap
21:59borrowing. High interest rates make it
22:01expensive for a business to buy
22:02machinery or [music] expand, and when
22:04the government also spends heavily on
22:05this interest, they have less for things
22:07those businesses need, like better
22:09roads. Then there's the rain. Brazil
22:11gets roughly half its electricity from
22:13hydropower. That's great until a drought
22:16comes and it hurts the harvest and
22:18electricity generation at the same time.
22:21So, yellow. Peru also has valuable
22:23minerals and savings to help manage a
22:26downturn. Political instability and
22:28crime make companies less willing to
22:29invest in what comes next. Colombia has
22:32businesses and exports beyond oil, but
22:34security problems and a difficult budget
22:36limit progress. Both yellow.
22:39Panama makes money by saving ships a
22:41very, very long journey around South
22:43America, which is an excellent business
22:45model, but there's just a strange
22:47requirement for operating this canal
22:49between these two oceans, and that is
22:51fresh water. [music] See, the locks lift
22:53and lower ships using water from lakes
22:56inland. Those lakes also supply drinking
22:58water. When a drought lowered them in
23:002023 and 2024, Panama had to restrict
23:03ship traffic. Another drought could do
23:05that again within our 10-year time
23:07frame. A planned reservoir would
23:08increase the supply, but it still has to
23:10be built first. Yellow. Britain is an
23:13interesting one. It has a housing
23:14shortage. It also makes building homes
23:16extraordinarily difficult, which is an
23:18interesting mix of policies. [music]
23:20It's funny because if you want to build
23:21near existing houses here, the neighbors
23:23will object, and if you build outside
23:25the city, people will object to that,
23:27too. Everyone agrees Britain needs more
23:29homes, just not in Britain, I guess.
23:32Maybe we can try with France. I mean, if
23:34they don't fix this, people will
23:36continue to be forced to pay more to
23:37live near a good job or spend more time
23:39and money traveling from somewhere
23:41cheaper. Businesses struggle to recruit
23:43because of this. Delayed railways, slow
23:45electricity connections, and too little
23:47investment in equipment all make it
23:49harder for businesses to expand and pay
23:51more. [music]
23:51Meanwhile, more people are retiring.
23:54Healthcare and pensions cost more, the
23:56government needs more money just to keep
23:57providing the same things. You pay more
23:59tax, and you notice no improvement, and
24:02then you hear there still isn't enough
24:04money. Understandably, this has not
24:06created a very [music] relaxed political
24:08atmosphere over there. Britain has
24:09successful businesses, skilled people,
24:11and [music] money to invest. So, I'm
24:13putting it in yellow.
24:16Moving across the pond to Canada. Canada
24:18has an extraordinary amount of land,
24:20along with oil, food, and minerals.
24:23Finding room for homes should be fairly
24:25straightforward, right? Well, I guess
24:27technically there's [music] plenty
24:29available, just very few houses are
24:31available at a price you can afford. Due
24:33to this, young people put off starting
24:35families. Workers can't afford to move
24:37to better jobs. More of every salary
24:39just goes to rent now, and then there's
24:42the US, Canada's biggest customer.
24:44Having such easy access to the biggest
24:46economy in the world is a huge
24:47advantage. Don't get me wrong, but
24:49uncertainty over tariffs makes it hard
24:51for a company investing millions in a
24:53factory built to serve the market. So,
24:55I'm going to have to put Canada in
24:57yellow. Going back across the Atlantic,
24:59we have France that exports large
25:01amounts of electricity, including to
25:03Britain. Having the neighbors help keep
25:05your lights on is useful. Unfortunately,
25:07selling them electricity hasn't solved
25:09the government's budget. Repeated
25:11deficits add that and interest takes
25:13money that could have paid for services.
25:15Raising taxes or cutting spending means
25:17getting a divided political system to
25:19agree on who loses out.
25:21>> [music]
25:21>> Yellow. Belgium has a similar problem.
25:24An aging population needs more pensions
25:26and care while the government already
25:27spends more than it collects. Borrowing
25:30covers the gap today. A bigger debt then
25:32adds interest to tomorrow's expenses.
25:34Belgium is wealthy enough to change that
25:36course, but the longer it waits, the
25:38more painful the choices become. Let's
25:41move to some tiny countries for a
25:42moment. San Marino still has public debt
25:44and problems left by its banking sector.
25:47Malta has grown quickly, but housing,
25:48roads, and public services have to keep
25:50up inside a very small space. Even the
25:52Vatican has financial problems. The Holy
25:55See's ordinary income doesn't cover its
25:57running costs and its pension
25:58commitments are another burden.
26:00Investment income can help close the
26:01gap, but it needs a more dependable
26:04solution. I'm giving it yellow because I
26:06have some confidence that an
26:07organization with more than a billion
26:09followers can improve its fundraising.
26:11San Marino and Malta get yellow, too.
26:14Montenegro earns heavily from tourism
26:16leaving public spending exposed when
26:18visitor income slows. Serbia needs
26:20reliable energy and more investment to
26:22raise wages. Kosovo relies heavily on
26:25money sent abroad and needs more
26:27well-paid work at home. All three,
26:29yellow. Turkey has been bringing
26:31inflation down after years of rapidly
26:33rising prices. Households and businesses
26:35need to believe it will stay down before
26:37they can plan comfortably again. It also
26:40has an enormous rebuilding task after
26:42devastating earthquakes and many more
26:44buildings need [music] to be made safer.
26:46Yellow.
26:47Argentina. I know some of you expected
26:49this to be much further down my list. I
26:50mean, its previous performances haven't
26:52exactly inspired confidence, but
26:54inflation has fallen sharply and public
26:56finances have improved. [music]
26:58Households still need to recover, but
26:59the direction is encouraging. Remember
27:02Japan's advantage of borrowing in its
27:04own currency? Argentina collects taxes
27:07in pesos, while some of its lenders
27:08expect dollars. It can print pesos, but
27:11to get dollars it needs exports,
27:13investors, or someone willing to lend it
27:14more. Expanding energy production helps.
27:17A few years of stability would let it
27:18rebuild savings and make them next
27:20crisis easier [music] to survive. I
27:22believe in them, so yellow. The
27:24Seychelles gets yellow, too. People
27:26spend a fortune to visit, but running
27:28the place isn't [music] cheap. The
27:29islands import much of what they need,
27:31including fuel, so disruption to flights
27:33can mean fewer tourists. This means they
27:35are quite dependent on oil prices.
27:38Mauritius has more ways to earn money,
27:39including manufacturing and financial
27:41services for international businesses,
27:43but pensions and public spending are
27:45adding pressure to its budget. Also
27:47yellow. Kiribati has fishing income and
27:50savings, but protecting low-lying
27:51islands and providing reliable services
27:53is expensive. The Marshall Islands
27:55[music] has renewed American funding for
27:57services and development. Finding enough
27:59engineers, builders, and health care
28:01workers to deliver them is still
28:03difficult. Tuvalu is building coastal
28:05defenses and raising land so people
28:06[music] can keep living there as seas
28:08rise. Australia also offers up to 280
28:10people a year a route to permanent
28:12residency, which gives families
28:13somewhere else to go while work
28:15continues [music] to protect the home
28:16they already have. Micronesia's islands
28:18stretch across thousands of kilometers.
28:20Its small population still needs school,
28:22[music] clinics, and supplies across all
28:24that distance. Palau has outside
28:27support, but depends heavily on
28:28tourists. Fiji has tourism, money sent
28:31home from abroad, and water exports,
28:33[music] but also debt that would make a
28:35natural disaster hard to overcome.
28:38Remember Samoa's low debt and reserves?
28:41These countries face similar dangers
28:43with more to repair and with less money
28:45available. All six yellow. Mexico put
28:48factories next to an enormous customer,
28:50which is a very sensible strategy, but a
28:52new factory takes years to pay for
28:54itself and the uncertainties are many.
28:57Tariffs, electricity, and water in areas
29:00that are also affected by organized
29:02crime, businesses face theft and
29:04extortion here. So, making investments
29:06is really difficult. And Pemex, the
29:09state oil company, has needed government
29:11help with its financial problems. So, in
29:12light of all of this, I am going to have
29:14to give Mexico yellow. In Guatemala,
29:17Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua,
29:20one of the biggest exports is workers.
29:22They find work abroad and send money
29:24home. This is a familiar story to us at
29:26this point, but the problem is it
29:27creates a dependency on these people
29:29keeping their jobs. Guatemala needs
29:31roads, healthcare, and education to
29:33improve alongside those [music]
29:34household finances. Honduras has built
29:36up foreign currency reserves, but its
29:38electricity system [music] still holds
29:40businesses back. El Salvador has sharply
29:42reduced gang violence, which major kudos
29:45for that. This has brought a huge change
29:47to daily life here, but the crackdowns
29:49has also involved arbitrary arrest and
29:51heavy government debt limits spending on
29:53other improvements. The major issue I
29:55see is that the government represses
29:57critics. Earning more money offers very
30:00little reassurance if speaking up can
30:02put you in danger. So, all four yellow.
30:05Belize's tourists come for its barrier
30:08reef and hurricanes and warring seas
30:10threaten it. Jamaica The Dominican
30:12Republic has stronger growth, but an
30:14unreliable electricity system and too
30:16little tax income to fund all the
30:18improvements it needs. The Bahamas
30:20depends heavily on tourism tourism while
30:22facing hurricanes. Antigua and Barbuda
30:26Antigua and Barbuda has reduced its
30:28debt,
30:29though financing needs and storms remain
30:31a risk. Four more yellows. Grenada has
30:34built financial reserves to help it
30:36recover from disaster. Jamaica spent
30:38years paying down [music] its debt. It
30:40also set up a catastrophe which works
30:43like hurricane insurance. Investors put
30:45up money and Jamaica pays them interest
30:47every year.
30:48If no big hurricane hits, the investors
30:50get their money back. But if a strong
30:52enough hurricane does hit, they lose
30:54some or all of it, and that money goes
30:56to Jamaica instead. In October 2025,
30:59Hurricane Melissa became the strongest
31:00storm ever to make landfall here. The
31:03The bond paid out $150 million, which
31:05covered only a fraction of the damage.
31:08But the money was ready when Jamaica
31:10needed it most.
31:11Jamaica also deserves credit for [music]
31:13jerk chicken, literally the best chicken
31:16I've ever had. But moving on. Barbados
31:18has improved its tax income and reduced
31:21that relative to its economy, helping it
31:23put more money into roads and other
31:25infrastructure. All three yellow. Later
31:28we'll reach a Caribbean country where
31:30rebuilding has left that larger than its
31:33entire annual economy. Until then, we'll
31:36move to Europe. Here, Estonia, Latvia,
31:38and Lithuania have allies and European
31:41support. [music] They also have a Russia
31:43nearby. Deterring an attack is expensive
31:46even if it never happens, while aging
31:48populations need more care at home.
31:51Finland faces those pressures, too, with
31:53weak growth making them harder to pay
31:54for. All four yellow. Armenia needs
31:57lasting security so businesses [music]
31:59can invest without another conflict
32:01overturning their plans. Azerbaijan has
32:03energy wealth but needs more industries
32:05beyond it. Georgia risks losing
32:07investment and [music] support as its
32:09relationship with the European Union
32:10deteriorates. Kazakhstan has oil and
32:13minerals but depends on export routes
32:15through [music] a difficult region. Four
32:16more yellows.
32:18Mongolia sells minerals overwhelmingly
32:20to China, which is very convenient when
32:22China is buying, and it's much harder to
32:25replace that customer when [music] it
32:26slows down. Uzbekistan needs growing
32:29businesses to create better jobs while
32:30dealing with water shortages.
32:32Turkmenistan relies heavily on gas with
32:35tight state control and limited
32:37independent information. [music]
32:38Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan depend heavily
32:40on money from workers abroad,
32:42particularly in Russia. [music]
32:43Losing a job there can mean a family
32:45struggling here. All five, yellow.
32:47Russia will appear later as it's
32:49definitely not yellow, I promise you
32:51that. For now, Israel has valuable
32:53technology companies, wealth, and
32:55substantial American military support,
32:57including weapons and missile defense
32:59funding. Those advantages help pay for
33:01prolonged conflict. The war still takes
33:03people away from their jobs, damages
33:05businesses, and adds to government
33:07borrowing. The longer it continues, the
33:09more expensive recovery becomes. Yellow.
33:12Now, finally, Taiwan. This is where
33:15several countries we've already ranked
33:16could suddenly have a much worse decade.
33:19Earlier, we met the Dutch machines
33:21needed to make advanced chips. Taiwan
33:22has spent decades combining that
33:24equipment with skilled people and
33:26specialist suppliers. [music]
33:27TSMC makes chips that companies across
33:29the world design and depend on. The
33:31issue with [music] Taiwan is that
33:33imports supplied roughly 95%
33:35of Taiwan's energy in 2025. A prolonged
33:38blockade could disrupt production
33:40without a chip factory being destroyed.
33:42The consequences would reach
33:43electronics, cars, and businesses far
33:46beyond the island. Taiwan has the wealth
33:48and expertise to do very well if it can
33:50keep that trade moving, but a war or a
33:52prolonged blockade could [music] change
33:54its future and damage everyone relying
33:56on its factories. Yellow. With a very
33:59large condition attached, which brings
34:02us to Taiwan's most important military
34:04backer, the United States. The US has
34:07food, energy, extraordinary businesses,
34:09and the world's most important currency.
34:11All advantages most countries would be
34:13delighted to have just one of, but then
34:15you look at their interest bill. The
34:17Congressional Budget Office projected
34:18roughly $8 trillion in federal net
34:21interest for 2026. By 2036, its February
34:24forecast had the annual bill at about
34:26$2.1 trillion. That's just interest.
34:29[music] The government still has
34:30everything else to pay for. Social
34:31Security adds another deadline. Its
34:33retirement [music] and survivors trust
34:35fund is projected to run out in late
34:372032. Income would still come in, but
34:39would cover about 78% of scheduled
34:42benefits unless Congress changes
34:43something. Imagine telling people that
34:45after a lifetime of paying in, they're
34:47getting roughly 3/4 of what they
34:49expected. I suspect that might come up
34:52in an election zone. America can raise
34:54taxes, change spending, and borrow in
34:56its own currency. Demand for dollars
34:58gives it options Argentina doesn't have,
35:00for example, but [music] more money
35:01spent on interest means harder choices
35:04about taxes and everything else the
35:05government pays for. Faster growth would
35:07help. AI and other technology could make
35:09workers more productive and increase tax
35:11income. The CBO already includes some
35:14gains from AI in that forecast, but even
35:16with those gains, the interest bill
35:18keeps rising. America has the means to
35:19deal with this. It also has a political
35:21system very capable of pushing the
35:23difficult decision until after the next
35:25election. So, yellow. That's the first
35:27121 countries. We now have 76 left. And
35:30we're moving to orange, one bad year
35:33away. Starting with Nigeria that has
35:35oil, a huge market, and millions of
35:38young people who could build successful
35:40businesses. This sounds great, but they
35:42need the electricity to stay on. If you
35:44run a workshop, you may need a generator
35:47that needs fuel. If fuel gets more
35:49expensive, so does everything you make.
35:52For years, the government paid to keep
35:53petrol cheap. Cutting that subsidy
35:55reduced a huge public expense, but moved
35:58more of the bill onto the drivers and
36:00businesses, making transport more
36:02expensive. At the same time, loosening
36:04currency controls helped push the naira
36:07down, making imports cost more. The
36:09reforms tackle real problems, but many
36:12households have very little left to
36:14absorb another increase in prices. So,
36:16orange. Senegal began producing oil and
36:19gas, then discovered its public debt was
36:22much higher than previously anticipated.
36:24New income helps, so does knowing how
36:26much you owe. Cameroon needs better
36:29roads, electricity, and services with
36:31insecurity making investment harder.
36:33Gabon depends on an oil industry that
36:35won't last forever, while debt limits
36:37what it can spend replacing that income.
36:40Benin and Togo have trade and industrial
36:42opportunities, but violence spreading
36:44south from the Sahel threatens
36:45communities and investment. Five
36:47oranges. Liberia's recent growth follows
36:50years of setbacks. Mining can raise
36:52export income, but jobs and services
36:55still have a lot of lost ground to
36:57recover. Sierra Leone has critically low
36:59foreign currency reserves. The emergency
37:01money needs emergency money. If imports
37:03get more expensive, paying for
37:05essentials becomes harder almost
37:07immediately. Gambia depends on tourism
37:09and money from abroad with debt leaving
37:12little spare in the budget. All orange.
37:15Guinea has some of the richest iron ore
37:17on Earth. After decades of delays, a
37:19giant mine called Simandou shipped its
37:22first iron ore in December 2025. It also
37:25has enormous reserves of bauxite, the
37:27rock used to make aluminum. Sounds
37:30promising, but a mine can be enormous
37:32without employing an enormous share of
37:34the country. The benefit depends on tax
37:37income, local suppliers of reliable
37:38infrastructure, and what the government
37:40does with the money. Disputes over
37:42mining licenses also affect investors'
37:44willingness to commit. Guinea could get
37:47much richer. How much of that wealth
37:49reaches ordinary people still depends on
37:51decisions being made now. So, orange.
37:54Cabo Verde earns from tourism, but debt
37:56and expensive imports leave it
37:58vulnerable to a bad season. Sao Tome and
38:01Principe has an electricity company with
38:03huge unpaid fuel bills. When it can't
38:05pay, the problem reaches every shop and
38:08household depending on the power supply.
38:10Comoros relies heavily on money sent
38:12home from abroad and has too few
38:14opportunities to earn locally. All three
38:17orange. Uganda found oil in 2006 and is
38:21only now close to pumping it. The
38:23government is counting on that money.
38:25Until it arrives, everything still has
38:27to be paid for with the taxes and loans
38:29it has now. Rwanda has grown fast for
38:32years, helped by a lot of foreign aid
38:34and loans. In 2025, several donors
38:37paused some of that aid over accusations
38:39that Rwanda backs rebels in neighboring
38:41Eastern Congo, which Rwanda denies.
38:44Kenya has businesses ready to expand.
38:46Debt payments take public money that
38:48could have improved the roads, power,
38:50and services they need, and many young
38:52people still struggle to find secure
38:54work. All three orange. Egypt earns
38:57foreign currency [music] from tourists,
38:58Suez Canal fees, and Egyptians working
39:00abroad sending money home. That sounds
39:02like a nicely diversified income
39:04portfolio, but the problem is once a
39:06regional conflict hits, more than one
39:09source will be affected at once.
39:10Tourists cancel, ships take the longer
39:12route [music] around Africa, Egypt loses
39:14dollars while still needing them for
39:16imports and debt payments. It also
39:18depends on the Nile, and most of the
39:20Nile's water starts in Ethiopia.
39:22Ethiopia has built a huge dam upstream,
39:25and Egypt worries about what that means
39:27for its water. [music] We'll get to
39:29Ethiopia's side of that story in the red
39:31tier, because that's unfortunately where
39:33Ethiopia belongs. But until then, I can
39:35tell you that Ethiopia doesn't have any
39:38coastline, which gives its neighbor
39:39Djibouti a valuable business, which is
39:42[music] what we're going to be talking
39:43about now. You see, Djibouti is making
39:45good money from Ethiopian goods
39:47traveling through its ports, but
39:49Djibouti borrowed heavily, so debt take
39:51money that could have improved services
39:53at home for something else. Both orange.
39:56Tunisia has too little outside financing
39:59and growing pressure on banks to fund
40:01the government. That can leave less
40:03money for businesses to expand and hire.
40:06Orange. Moldova has been trying to
40:08reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
40:10In 2025, Russian gas deliveries to the
40:12breakaway region of Transnistria
40:14stopped. So, Moldova lost the cheap
40:16electricity it had bought [music] from
40:18power plants there and needed
40:19replacements. At the same time, workers
40:21keep leaving for better wages abroad. EU
40:24support helps, but Moldova is dealing
40:26with energy [music] shocks, Russian
40:27political interference, and war next
40:29door in Ukraine. Orange. Remember
40:32Guyana, the economy that's doing [music]
40:34pretty great? Suriname is right
40:36next door and has found oil in the same
40:38stretch of ocean. Production is expected
40:41to start around 2028. The problem is
40:43that Suriname has debts to repay before
40:46any of that money arrives. Orange.
40:48Ecuador has improved its finances, but
40:51violent crime and unreliable
40:53infrastructure push it into [music]
40:54orange. Also, I went there this year and
40:57a few days after arriving, I ended up in
40:59the hospital with pneumonia. Later in
41:01the trip, when I went to the Amazon, I
41:03found insects in my breakfast and I had
41:06diarrhea for quite a while.
41:08And no, they they were not supposed to
41:10be there. Beautiful country, but it did
41:12try to kill me, so I will be subtracting
41:14a few points for that. But, let's move
41:16on to Nauru with the most unusual way of
41:19making money for any country, I would
41:21say, Australian immigration. You see,
41:24Australia pays it to host an asylum
41:26processing center. In the 2025 financial
41:29year, income linked to that center
41:30supplied almost 2/3 of the government's
41:33revenue. That is a crazy amount of money
41:35for them, but it obviously leaves them
41:37very vulnerable if a change of policy
41:39comes from Canberra. Recent agreements
41:41have made the income more secure for the
41:42next few years, but still replacing it
41:44would be extremely difficult, so orange.
41:47Papua New Guinea exports gas and
41:49minerals, but many communities still
41:50lack reliable roads, power, and health
41:52care. Getting the income to those
41:54communities is the difficult part. The
41:56Solomon Islands have mining
41:57opportunities and very little government
42:00cash. Tonga receives money from workers
42:02abroad while losing people needed to
42:03build and maintain things at [music]
42:05home. Vanuatu keeps spending on
42:07replacing infrastructure destroyed by
42:09natural disasters, so all for orange.
42:12Saint Lucia has tourism income, but too
42:14much debt for [music] a comfortable
42:16recovery from another big shock.
42:18Dominica is investing in stronger
42:19infrastructure and geothermal power with
42:21heavy debt already limiting its options.
42:24St. Kitts and Nevis makes money by
42:26selling citizenship, but [music] in
42:272023, it raised prices and tightened
42:30background checks while the competitors
42:32offered cheaper deals. Due to this
42:33change, revenue fell by more than half
42:36the following year. Unfortunately, the
42:37government had increased spending while
42:39the sales were still good. So, all three
42:42orange. Bangladesh is the world's second
42:45biggest clothing exporter after China.
42:48Part of what built that industry is its
42:49place on the UN's list of least
42:51developed countries, which lets it sell
42:54to Europe without paying import taxes.
42:56Now, it's due to graduate off that list,
42:59which sounds like great news, but it
43:01really isn't. The reason is they will
43:03gradually lose this advantage that
43:05helped them build their biggest industry
43:07in the first place, which is [music] why
43:08the government has asked for more time.
43:11On top of that, troubled banks are
43:12making it harder for businesses to
43:14borrow and invest. So, orange. Sri Lanka
43:17shows how quickly a recovery can be
43:19interrupted. [music] Debt restructuring
43:21helped it start rebuilding its finances
43:23after the crisis. Then, Cyclone Didway
43:25hit in late 2025. [music] The World Bank
43:28estimated $4.1 billion in direct
43:30physical damage, roughly 4% of the
43:33economy. The money that could have gone
43:35into improving the country now has to go
43:37into rebuilding it. Orange. 45 countries
43:40left. From here, 29 are red and 15 are
43:43black. Red is screwed. Starting with the
43:46Maldives. You might expect rising seas
43:49to be the immediate problem here. I
43:50mean, in the long run, they are, but
43:52within our 10 years, a debt payment can
43:55arrive much sooner. Tourists bring
43:57dollars in. Imported food, fuel, and
44:00debt repayments take dollars out. And
44:02right now, more is going out than coming
44:04in with very little saved to cover the
44:06gap. If tourism has a bad year or donors
44:09stop helping, there is almost nothing to
44:11fall back on. Red. St. Vincent and the
44:13Grenadines is the Caribbean country I
44:15referred to earlier. Volcanic eruptions,
44:17storms, rebuilding, and then rebuilding
44:20again. The IMF estimated public debt at
44:22about 113% of the economy in 2025.
44:26Jamaica's preparations helped it access
44:28money after a disaster. Here, the
44:30accumulated cost of recovery has left
44:32far less room for another one. Red.
44:34Lesotho sells water to South Africa,
44:36which is a useful income, but it doesn't
44:38replace threatened garment jobs or
44:40reduce dependence on South African trade
44:43and customs revenue. Income per person
44:45remains below its 2007 level. The
44:47government earns money from the water
44:48while the wider economy struggles to
44:50provide enough well-paid work. Red.
44:52Pakistan has made progress stabilizing
44:54its economy, but its electricity system
44:56shows how hard it is to escape the
44:58underlying problems. The system built up
45:00debts, customers are charged extra to
45:03help repay them, so your bill includes
45:05electricity you use plus a contribution
45:07towards years of problems you didn't
45:09personally cause. Businesses then face
45:11expensive, unreliable power, making it
45:13harder to expand and hire. That means
45:16less tax income from the businesses.
45:18Then floods and extreme heat damage the
45:20crops, homes, and roads. Money that
45:23could have improved the country had to
45:25replace things it already had. Its farms
45:28also depend heavily on the Indus River
45:30system, and several of those rivers flow
45:33through India first. A 1963 treaty
45:35divides the water between the two
45:37countries, but in 2025, after a deadly
45:39attack on tourists in Kashmir that India
45:42blamed on Pakistan, India put the treaty
45:44on hold. India doesn't have the dams to
45:46stop those rivers, but it can change
45:48when water is released. For farmers who
45:50plan their year around those rivers,
45:52that uncertainty is a real problem. Red.
45:55Malawi and Burundi have severe shortage
45:57of foreign currency. That makes it
45:59difficult to import fuel, medicine, and
46:02fertilizer. Less fertilizer can mean a
46:04smaller harvest. Less fuel makes getting
46:06that harvest to market harder. These
46:08shortages damage the businesses that
46:10could help earn more foreign money, both
46:12read.
46:13Zimbabwe has repeatedly seen currencies
46:16lose value and people's savings with
46:18them. Many people understandably prefer
46:20dollars now. The zig, its latest
46:22currency, has become more stable, but
46:25trust takes longer to recover.
46:26Businesses hesitate to accept long-term
46:29payments in money they're afraid will
46:31lose its value. Unpaid debts also
46:33restrict access to outside financing,
46:35read. Bolivia sold natural gas abroad
46:38and used the dollars to buy things it
46:40needed, including petrol and diesel.
46:42Then gas production fell, and that's how
46:45an energy exporting country ended up
46:47with fuel shortages. So, the government
46:50has been cutting the subsidies that kept
46:51fuel artificially cheap. In September
46:532026, hours after lawmakers approved an
46:56IMF loan, it ended the subsidy on
46:58diesel. The price jumped 83% overnight.
47:02The loan should help Bolivia afford fuel
47:04imports again, but anyone who drives to
47:05work, farms land, or buys food trucked
47:08into a market is now paying more, read.
47:11>> [music]
47:11>> Cuba has too little fuel and foreign
47:14currency with a strained electricity
47:16system causing repeated blackouts. A
47:18blackout interrupts the businesses that
47:20might earn the money needed to make the
47:21next blackout less likely, read. Laos
47:24built dams and transport links using
47:26borrowed money. Those projects can earn
47:29income over decades. Lenders may prefer
47:31being paid before the decades are
47:33finished. Postponing payments buys time.
47:36The debt still has to be paid, so read.
47:38Remember Norway's oil fund. Timor-Leste
47:41saved its oil and gas money in a fund,
47:44too. The difference is how each of them
47:46spend it. Norway mostly spends what its
47:48fund earns each year. Actually, a
47:51smaller part of what it earns. So, the
47:52savings keep growing. Timor-Leste takes
47:55out far more than that because the fund
47:57pays for most of what the government
47:59does, and its main gas field has run
48:01dry. So, almost nothing new is coming
48:03in. That works for a little while, but
48:05the spending hasn't yet built the jobs
48:07and businesses that could eventually
48:09replace the fund. By the end of our 10
48:11years, Timor-Leste could have far less
48:13money saved and still no other way to
48:16pay its bills. Red. Bahrain was the
48:18first country on the Arab side of the
48:20Gulf to strike oil back in 1932. It's
48:23also one of the first to start running
48:25low. In 2024, its government spent
48:27roughly $160 for every $100 it
48:30collected. That's obviously not good,
48:32and interest alone took more than a
48:33third of government revenue. So, before
48:36paying for schools, hospitals, or
48:37anything else, a huge share of the money
48:39was already owed to lenders. More
48:41borrowing fills today's gap and makes
48:43the debt bigger. Closing the gap means
48:45more taxes, less spending, or higher
48:48prices for subsidized essentials. Help
48:50from wealthy neighbors has become
48:52important to them. Fixing the gap still
48:54means difficult decisions about [music]
48:55what government pays for and what people
48:57pay for themselves. Red. Angola earns
49:00from oil, but the industry creates too
49:02few jobs for its rapidly growing
49:04population. Debt payments also take
49:06income that could build other
49:08industries. Equatorial Guinea's oil
49:09production has declined without a large
49:11enough replacement economy. The Republic
49:13of the Congo also has oil alongside
49:15heavy debt and overdue government
49:17payments that hurt businesses and public
49:19services. All three, red. Libya has oil
49:22money and competing authorities who want
49:24to control it. People still deal with
49:26unreliable electricity and public
49:27services. It's difficult to fix the
49:29country when you're still arguing over
49:31who's running it. Red. Iraq also sells
49:34energy while struggling to provide a
49:36reliable electricity to its own
49:37population. Oil pays for much of the
49:40public budget, so a fall in its price
49:42threatens wages and services. Add water
49:44shortages, and one expert has too many
49:46jobs to do. Red. Iran has oil industry
49:49and educated people. War damage and
49:52disruption now add to sanctions,
49:54inflation, and serious water shortages.
49:56Restrictions make investment harder
49:58while damaged or unreliable
50:00infrastructure makes it harder for
50:01businesses to keep operating. Red. Chad
50:04has oil but also has vulnerable farming
50:07and immense pressure from people fleeing
50:09from Sudan's war. It needs to provide
50:11more with services already stretched.
50:14Mozambique has major gas potential,
50:15insecurity, and weak public finances
50:18make the promised income much harder to
50:20turn into reliable jobs and services.
50:21Madagascar faces deep poverty and
50:24repeated climate damage with little
50:26money for recovery. Guinea-Bissau
50:28depends overwhelmingly on cashew
50:30exports. One poor season or falling
50:32price reaches much of the country
50:34because of that. Niger has new oil
50:36income but insecurity and restricted
50:39financing makes it harder to turn growth
50:41into better living conditions. Five
50:43reds. Finally, we can talk about
50:45Ethiopia. For Ethiopia, the Grand
50:47Ethiopian Renaissance Dam means power
50:49for homes and factories plus electricity
50:51to sell abroad. That's a major
50:54opportunity. The water used to generate
50:56electricity continues downstream. The
50:58dispute is about when it's released,
51:00especially during drought. Ethiopia
51:02wants dependable power, Egypt wants
51:04dependable water. Those decisions need
51:06cooperation between countries with
51:08different priorities. But Ethiopia also
51:10has debt problems, conflict, and
51:12millions of people needing humanitarian
51:14help. A farmer forced to abandon their
51:16land doesn't immediately benefit because
51:18the country generates more electricity.
51:20Reforms and debt relief offer progress
51:22and stability for people to return home
51:24and work would help that progress reach
51:26them. For now, red. Russia. You keep
51:29hearing its economy is about to
51:31collapse. It keeps not collapsing. It
51:33still sells oil, mostly to China and
51:35India now at a discount, but it still
51:37sells it. And the government is spending
51:39enormous amounts on the war, paying
51:41factories to make weapons, and paying
51:42people a great wage to work in them.
51:45Unemployment is low. Many Russians are
51:46earning more than before. So, imagine
51:48you run an ordinary business, say a
51:51furniture factory. You want to hire, but
51:53the weapons plant down the road pays
51:55more, so you're not going to be able to
51:56find anyone. You want a loan to expand,
51:58but interest rates are at 14%. You want
52:01new machinery, but sanctions make it
52:02impossible to get. And the young
52:04engineer you wanted to hire has left the
52:06country already. That's the problem with
52:08a war economy. It looks busy from the
52:10outside while factories run and wages
52:12rise, but very little out of that
52:15spending builds anything that keeps
52:16paying off after the war is done.
52:19Meanwhile, Russia has spent much of the
52:20rainy day fund it built from oil. They
52:22can still raise taxes, borrow more, or
52:24hope oil prices rise. It has ways to
52:27keep going. Somehow, being able to
52:29afford more war has become the good news
52:31for them. And even when the fighting
52:33stops, the people who left don't
52:34automatically return, and the money is
52:36already spent. Red. Belarus has tied
52:39itself ever closer to Russia while
52:41jailing critics at home. Russia's
52:42problems increasingly become its
52:44problems with fewer ways to choose a
52:46different path. Red. North Korea's
52:48isolation, repression, and food
52:50insecurity severely restrict ordinary
52:52life. Independent information is
52:54limited, but the lack of basic
52:56opportunity is clear. Red. Eritrea also
52:59severely restricts people's work and
53:01choices, including through prolonged
53:03compulsory national service. That drives
53:05people to leave and limits what those
53:07who stay can build for themselves. Red.
53:10Venezuela is a moving target. The US
53:12intervention and Maduro's capture in
53:14January 2026 [music] changed its
53:16political situation. UN investigators
53:18were still reporting serious abuses in
53:21September. So, years of economic damage,
53:23weakened services, and lost trust still
53:26need repairing. Its direction is
53:28unusually uncertain. For now, red.
53:31Leaving us with the final 15 countries.
53:34For these, the crisis to be worried
53:35about has already started. The
53:37Democratic Republic of the Congo
53:39supplies much of the world's cobalt,
53:41used in many rechargeable batteries, its
53:43minerals are worth a fortune. [music]
53:45Meanwhile, fighting in the east has
53:47forced people from their homes,
53:49disrupted food supplies, and exposed
53:51communities to severe violence. Mining
53:53wealth elsewhere in the country hasn't
53:55given those families safety or provided
53:57reliable services for much of the
53:59population. Black.
54:01The Central African Republic faces
54:02prolonged insecurity, extreme poverty,
54:04and weak essential services. In Mali and
54:07Burkina Faso, armed violence has
54:09displaced communities and closed
54:10schools. People lose access to farms,
54:13markets, and healthcare. A village cut
54:15off from food supplies can't wait for a
54:17better national growth forecast. All
54:19three are already in crisis. Somalia has
54:22people building businesses and keeping
54:24communities going despite conflict and
54:25repeated climate [music] shocks. Severe
54:27hunger and displacement still leave
54:29millions needing help. Black.
54:31Afghanistan faces poverty, strained
54:33services, and restrictions that deny
54:35women and girls education and work.
54:37Earlier, we met countries desperately
54:39trying to find more workers. Here, the
54:41authorities prevents a huge part of the
54:43population from developing and using
54:45their skills. That harms people now and
54:47makes recovery harder for the next
54:48generation. Black. Myanmar's war has
54:51destroyed livelihoods and driven people
54:52from their homes. Damaged infrastructure
54:54and repeated disasters make recovery
54:57harder. In Haiti, armed gangs control
54:59routes people need to reach work, food,
55:01and hospitals. Even moving across the
55:03capital can be dangerous. Yemen has
55:05endured years of war with hunger,
55:07damaged services, and a divided economy
55:10leaving families dependent on help that
55:12isn't always reliable. All already in
55:15crisis. Syria has a chance to rebuild
55:17after political change. It also has
55:19destroyed neighborhoods, damaged
55:20infrastructure, and families who need a
55:22safe way home. A new government creates
55:24an opportunity, but people still need
55:26electricity, work,
55:28>> [music]
55:28>> and a house they can live in. Black.
55:30While that recovery is still being
55:32fought for, Lebanon has renewed
55:33destruction on top of a financial
55:36collapse that trapped people's savings
55:37and damaged basic services. Rebuilding
55:40requires money and functioning banks,
55:41both already difficult to access, so
55:44black. Palestine is already in crisis.
55:46In Gaza, devastation, displacement, and
55:48restrictions on essentials have made
55:50finding food, shelter, and medical care
55:52an immediate struggle. [music] The West
55:54Bank faces a different situation.
55:56Military raids, attacks by settlers, and
55:58checkpoints make it hard for people to
56:00move freely from their land or get to
56:02work. One color has to cover both places
56:04here, but it can't tell you whether a
56:06particular family still has a home to go
56:08back to or a hospital they can reach.
56:09Ukraine is also black. Its government
56:11continues to function, while businesses
56:13still operate, people work, and
56:15international support helps defend
56:17itself and rebuild. But homes and
56:19infrastructure are being destroyed while
56:21that work continues. Keeping electricity
56:23running through attacks is an
56:24extraordinary achievement. It also shows
56:26the emergency people are living through.
56:28The country has a route to recovery. It
56:30needs the destruction to stop. South
56:32Sudan's conflict and humanitarian
56:34emergency are made worse by dependence
56:36on another country in this tier. Its oil
56:39needs pipelines through Sudan to reach
56:41the sea. Disruption there cuts the
56:42income needed to pay for services here.
56:45Two countries in crisis with one making
56:47the other's recovery harder. And
56:48finally, our last country, Sudan. War
56:51has driven millions from their homes,
56:53devastated livelihoods, and caused
56:55catastrophic hunger. Inside [music]
56:57Sudan, families are trying to survive
56:59the destruction of the places and
57:01services they depended on. For those
57:03families, getting through tomorrow
57:04matters more than any prediction about
57:06the next decade. And that's all 197.
57:10So many of these countries have the
57:11people, resources, and money to offer a
57:14much better life. A lot of their
57:16problems are just a few good decisions
57:18away from moving them closer to green.
57:2010 years from now, I hope a lot of these
57:22colors look different, and I'd be very
57:24happy to be wrong. But that's it for
57:25this video. Thanks so much for watching,
57:27and I'll see you in the next one.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Every Country, Ranked By How Screwed It Is by OBF, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 10,139 words across 1,651 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to choose a caption track available on the video.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, caption language selection, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.