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Europe, Canada & The West Are BREAKING FREE From Elon Musk's Starlink - Here's How — Transcript

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0:00On the 14th of October, Ukraine's
0:02military and civil society discovered
0:04that one of its most important
0:05communication systems had suddenly been
0:07restricted.
0:08Without warning, Starshield, the
0:10military-grade version of Elon Musk's
0:12Starlink, began losing connections when
0:15equipment traveled faster than
0:16approximately 160 km/h.
0:20And the consequences were immediate and
0:22deadly.
0:23Ukrainian drone interceptors struggled
0:25to operate, long-range strike missions
0:27were disrupted, and frontline commanders
0:30reported losing connections to drones in
0:32the middle of operations, forcing some
0:34missions to be canceled altogether.
0:36All while Russia continued launching
0:38missiles and drones against Ukrainian
0:40cities, including civilian housing,
0:43public transport, and energy
0:44infrastructure. And here's where the
0:46story becomes particularly disturbing.
0:49According to Reuters, citing American
0:51officials, the order to restrict the
0:53service originated inside the White
0:55House.
0:55Now, we don't know exactly who gave that
0:58order, and Washington has disputed
1:00accusations of deliberately undermining
1:02Ukraine's defense.
1:04But the disruption to Ukrainian military
1:06operations was real.
1:07And this entire episode has exposed a
1:09rather extraordinary vulnerability,
1:12one that should concern not only
1:13Ukraine, but every American ally and
1:15customer that has come to depend on
1:17these same satellite communication
1:19systems.
1:21If access to something as critical as
1:22battlefield communications can be
1:24restricted by a political decision made
1:27thousands of kilometers away, how much
1:29control do those countries really have
1:31over their own military capabilities?
1:33I'm Tuomas, a former officer in the
1:35Finnish Defense Forces, and today we'll
1:37examine just how dependent modern
1:39militaries have become on American
1:41satellite communications.
1:43We'll look at what happened in Ukraine,
1:45why so many of America's allies have
1:47come to rely on Starlink, and how
1:49countries across Europe and beyond are
1:52now investing billions to ensure their
1:54military communications aren't dependent
1:56on the decisions of Elon Musk and
1:58whoever happens to occupy the White
1:59House,
2:00who seems quite comfortable using it as
2:02a means of blackmail if the need ever
2:04arose.
2:06And perhaps most importantly, whether
2:08any of the alternatives can actually
2:09compete with Starlink. Now, to
2:11understand why replacing Starlink could
2:13be so difficult, we need to look at just
2:16how enormous the network has become.
2:18As of September 2026, Starlink had
2:21approximately 13.6 million consumer
2:24subscribers worldwide, alongside
2:26hundreds of thousands of additional
2:28business customers.
2:30Its network consists of more than 11,000
2:32lower Earth orbit satellites, giving
2:34SpaceX a considerable advantage over its
2:36competitors.
2:38And while SpaceX doesn't publish an
2:40exact breakdown of how many customers
2:42are based outside the United States,
2:44its international presence continues
2:46expanding rapidly.
2:48And it is estimated that at least half
2:49of its customer base comes from outside
2:52the US. So, what alternatives actually
2:54exist? Well, perhaps unsurprisingly,
2:58Europe already operates several direct
3:00competitors to Starlink.
3:01The largest is called OneWeb, and it's
3:03operated by the French satellite company
3:05Eutelsat.
3:07Its network consists of more than 600
3:09satellites in low Earth orbit.
3:11And Eutelsat is already preparing for a
3:13substantial expansion.
3:15In September 2026, the company announced
3:18plans to procure another 229 satellites
3:21from Airbus.
3:22And importantly, these satellites are
3:24being manufactured in Toulouse, France,
3:27with Airbus completing the first batch
3:28of 32 in October.
3:30And rather ironically, Elon Musk has
3:33become something of an unexpected
3:34driving force behind Eutelsat's stock
3:36market rallies.
3:38Back in March 2025, following the
3:40disastrous White House meeting between
3:42Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
3:45fears that Ukraine would lose access to
3:47Starlink helped send Eutelsat's shares
3:49soaring by as much as 650% in just four
3:52trading days in an otherwise
3:54low-performing stock. Then in May 2026,
3:57the shares jumped again. This time by
3:59more than 20% in a single day as
4:02investors became excited about SpaceX's
4:04planned stock market listing and
4:06invested in Eutelsat as a consequence.
4:09And when Ukraine's military satellite
4:11communications were restricted this
4:12October, Eutelsat enjoyed yet another
4:15rally with its shares rising more than
4:1730% over the following days.
4:19So, Musk and the US has managed to send
4:22investors rushing towards their largest
4:23European competitor on three separate
4:26occasions
4:27for three rather different reasons.
4:29But Eutelsat is far from Europe's only
4:31satellite communications provider.
4:33Luxembourg's SES is another major player
4:36having launched 13 of its newest mPOWER
4:39satellites alongside its much larger
4:41existing satellite networks.
4:43Unlike Starlink, these newer satellites
4:46operate in medium Earth orbit and are
4:48designed to provide high-capacity
4:50connections to governments, military
4:51customers, ships, and aircraft.
4:54And Europe also has something that tends
4:55to get overlooked in discussions about
4:57Starlink.
4:58Several countries already operate their
5:00own dedicated military communication
5:02satellites.
5:04Britain has its Skynet network, France
5:06operates Syracuse, Italy has Sicral,
5:09Germany uses SatCom Bundeswehr, and
5:11Spain operates SpainSat through its
5:13satellite company Hisdesat.
5:15Now, these systems might sound rather
5:17insignificant when you compare their
5:19handful of satellites with Starlink's
5:2111,000. But most of Europe's dedicated
5:24military communication satellites
5:25operate in geostationary orbit, almost
5:2836,000 km above Earth.
5:31From that altitude, a single satellite
5:33can cover an enormous geographical area
5:35providing secure communications to
5:37military headquarters, warships,
5:40aircraft, and deployed forces.
5:42And many of these systems are
5:44specifically designed to resist
5:45interference and provide protected
5:47military communications.
5:49The downside is that the enormous
5:51distance introduces considerably more
5:53latency, making them less suitable for
5:55some of the fast-moving, data-intensive
5:57drone operations we're seeing in
5:59Ukraine.
6:00The question then becomes, how does the
6:02Western alliance outside the United
6:04States close the enormous gap in low
6:06Earth orbit satellite capabilities?
6:08Well, fortunately, things are moving
6:10rather quickly in this field.
6:12And with governments increasingly
6:14concerned about their dependence on
6:15American technology, billions are now
6:17being invested in new satellite
6:19constellations.
6:21Perhaps the most ambitious of these is
6:23Europe's IRIS Squared program.
6:25Following a major redesign in August
6:272026, the European Union plans to deploy
6:30348 satellites across low and medium
6:33Earth orbit, providing secure
6:35communications for European governments,
6:38armed forces, and commercial customers.
6:41The first launches are scheduled for
6:432029, although bringing the full network
6:46into service will take several more
6:47years. So, we're still far away from
6:49that plugging the immediate gap. And
6:52across the Atlantic, just above the
6:53noisy neighbors, Canada is pursuing
6:55something rather similar.
6:57Its Telesat Lightspeed network is
6:59planned to consist initially of 225
7:01satellites, with services expected to
7:04begin in 2028.
7:06And Canada is making its intentions
7:07increasingly clear.
7:09Only a few weeks ago, Prime Minister
7:11Mark Carney declared that Canada would,
7:14without question, diversify away from
7:16Starlink, arguing that cooperation with
7:18European and South Korean partners could
7:21help reduce the country's dependence on
7:23American satellite communications.
7:25And Ottawa is already putting serious
7:27money behind those ambitions.
7:29The Canadian government has committed
7:312.3 billion Canadian dollars towards
7:34securing military communications through
7:36Telesat Lightspeed, particularly for
7:38operations in the Arctic.
7:40And just this week, Canada's defense
7:42minister announced further investments
7:44in domestic satellite technology and
7:46Canadian launch facilities as part of a
7:49wider push to establish independent
7:50military capabilities in space.
7:53And these are far from the only projects
7:54underway. Germany is planning its own
7:57military constellation of up to 200 low
7:59Earth orbit satellites, potentially
8:01costing 10 billion euros, with the first
8:0340 targeted for 2029.
8:06South Korea is pursuing an even larger
8:08low Earth orbit network with ambitions
8:11to deploy hundreds of satellites by 2035
8:14while exploring cooperation with
8:15Canadian manufacturers.
8:17Britain is modernizing its Skynet
8:19military satellite network, while Japan
8:22and Australia are investing in systems
8:23capable of using multiple satellite
8:25networks to improve resilience, likely
8:28adopting a way to use both European,
8:30Canadian, and South Korean satellites
8:32interchangeably.
8:33So, across Europe, Canada, and the
8:35Pacific allies, billions are being
8:37invested in reducing dependence on US
8:39satellite communications.
8:41But, there's an enormous difference
8:43between announcing hundreds of
8:44satellites and actually getting them
8:46into orbit. And even if all these
8:48projects succeed, matching Starlink's
8:50scale remains a considerable challenge.
8:52Having big plans to reduce dependency is
8:54well and good, but there's one rather
8:56important question we haven't addressed.
8:59Who's actually going to launch all these
9:00satellites?
9:02Manufacturing hundreds of spacecraft is
9:04one thing. Getting them into orbit and
9:06replacing them as they wear out requires
9:08an entirely different industrial
9:11And this is where SpaceX enjoys another
9:13enormous advantage. Its Falcon 9 rockets
9:16are reusable, relatively inexpensive,
9:18and launch at a frequency that other
9:20providers have struggled to match. And
9:22rather ironically, both Canada and
9:24Europe's effort to reduce its dependence
9:26on Starlink currently relies on SpaceX
9:28to get its satellites into orbit.
9:31Telesat expects to need 15 Falcon 9
9:33launches to deploy its planned 225
9:36satellite lightspeed constellation.
9:39So, Canada's future communications
9:41network may be Canadian-built and
9:43Canadian-operated, but it will initially
9:45get into space aboard Elon Musk's
9:47rockets.
9:48Europe has faced similar challenges.
9:51Following years of delays to its Ariane
9:536 program, European satellite operators
9:56have also turned to SpaceX when domestic
9:58launch capacity wasn't available.
10:01But, the situation is beginning to
10:03change. Ariane 6 has now entered
10:05service, giving Europe its own
10:07heavy-lift rocket capable of launching
10:09large satellites and batches of smaller
10:11spacecraft from French Guiana.
10:13But, it is still a disposable system and
10:15costs a lot more than what Falcon 9
10:17does.
10:18And in September 2026, Eutelsat signed
10:21an agreement for two Ariane 6 launches
10:24in 2027 and 2028, specifically to help
10:27replenish its OneWeb constellation.
10:30So, Europe and Canada are beginning to
10:32connect the two halves of the problem,
10:34manufacturing satellites and launching
10:36them independently.
10:38But, the next challenge is scale.
10:40Arianespace is targeting around 9 to 10
10:42Ariane 6 launches annually by 2027.
10:46And there's only really one spaceport in
10:48Europe, which has had a successful
10:49launch in 2026, Andøya in Norway.
10:53While projects all over Europe, Canada,
10:55and the Pacific are promising, they're
10:57far from providing the sort of scale
10:59needed for Europe and the rest of the
11:00West to be truly independent in
11:02launches.
11:03SpaceX, meanwhile, has already
11:05demonstrated the ability to launch
11:07Falcon 9 rockets at a far higher
11:09frequency. And this brings us to perhaps
11:11the biggest obstacle facing Europe and
11:13Canada, money. Building satellites is
11:16expensive. Launching and maintaining
11:18hundreds of them is even more expensive.
11:21And SpaceX has an enormous advantage,
11:23manufacturing its own satellites and
11:25launching them aboard its own reusable
11:27rockets.
11:28There's also a military problem. In a
11:30major conflict, satellites could be
11:32jammed, disabled, or even destroyed.
11:35And while Europe might have the
11:36technology to manufacture replacements,
11:39getting them into orbit quickly is
11:40another matter entirely.
11:42SpaceX can launch rockets every few
11:44days. Europe currently cannot. And in a
11:47prolonged war, the ability to replace
11:49lost satellites could become just as
11:51important as having them in the first
11:53place.
11:54So, where does that leave us?
11:56Europe and Canada are investing billions
11:58in reducing their dependence on American
12:00space infrastructure.
12:02They have the technology, the expertise,
12:04and increasingly the political
12:06determination to make it happen.
12:08But catching up with SpaceX will take
12:10years. And matching its enormous
12:12industrial capacity may prove
12:14unrealistic. No matter how many times
12:16Elon Musk and Donald Trump decides to go
12:19into the forest, as we say in Finland,
12:21for someone who makes a blunder.
12:23Fortunately, complete independence isn't
12:25necessarily the goal.
12:27Having reliable alternatives,
12:29particularly for military and government
12:31communications, would already represent
12:33an enormous improvement and leverage
12:35against situations like that, which
12:37we've now seen with Ukraine and
12:38Starlink.
12:40Ukraine has demonstrated just how
12:42important satellite communications have
12:44become in modern warfare.
12:46And perhaps the biggest lesson is that a
12:48country should never find itself in a
12:50position where its ability to fight a
12:51war depends on the decisions of a single
12:54company, or indeed a single billionaire
12:57or American president.
12:59That's something European, Pacific, and
13:01Canadian governments are now spending
13:03billions to ensure never happens to
13:05them.

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