【與錢同行】台股靠颱風躲過美股暴跌 下周補跌?不怕台股修正 ETF規模 績效雙成長!雅婷主播與你同行ft.李澤澄 ‬20261023 @中天財經頻道CtiFinance — Transcript

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1. 0:00Hello everyone, welcome to "Investing
2. 0:01Together." I’m your host, Zhang Ting.
3. 0:03Today, we have Mr. Li Zecheng with us
4. 0:05in the studio. Hello, Mr. Li.
5. 0:07>> Hello, and greetings to all the viewers
6. 0:09. In today’s episode, we’re going
7. 0:11to take a closer look at ETFs. The
8. 0:13Taiwan stock market has been very
9. 0:14strong this year, rising nearly 70%.
10. 0:16But ask yourselves, what has your
11. 0:18actual rate of return been this year?
12. 0:19Many people say individual stocks are
13. 0:21hard to trade and they'd rather leave
14. 0:22it to the professionals. What is your
15. 0:24take on this, Mr. Li?
16. 0:25>> I think average investors should
17. 0:27gradually reduce their individual stock
18. 0:29trading and increase their allocation
19. 0:31to ETFs.
20. 0:32>> Because ETFs basically don't hit daily
21. 0:34price limits. If you trade individual
22. 0:36stocks and pick a good one, but it hits
23. 0:37the limit down two or three times, you
24. 0:39probably can't handle it and might sell
25. 0:41. However, ETFs have very low
26. 0:42volatility; they really rely on
27. 0:44patience and strategy. For example,
28. 0:46some investors like dollar-cost
29. 0:48averaging. In theory, they wouldn't
30. 0:49sell this year, so they actually
31. 0:51captured the full year's gains. But if
32. 0:53you trade individual stocks, you might
33. 0:55sell a stock that keeps rising, or you
34. 0:57buy at the top and get stuck.
35. 0:58>> Exactly, so I suggest investors should
36. 1:00definitely increase their weight in
37. 1:02ETFs.
38. 1:03>> By doing this, you'll find that trading
39. 1:05stocks becomes much easier. You don't
40. 1:07have to be nervous; you just buy them
41. 1:09and watch them grow. It's a great tool.
42. 1:11>> Right, it provides peace of mind.
43. 1:13>> I noticed that back in March when we
44. 1:15talked about ETFs, there were 216
45. 1:17listed, and now by October, it has
46. 1:20reached 212. Many active ETFs were
47. 1:22launched this year, so it's been very
48. 1:24popular. Because we see the scale is
49. 1:27incredible; in March, the listed ETFs
50. 1:29had a total market size of only 5.3
51. 1:31trillion.
52. 1:32>> Mhm.
53. 1:32>> By September, it reached over 9
54. 1:34trillion.
55. 1:35>> So everyone is buying them. Yes,
56. 1:36everyone is buying, and look at the
57. 1:37number of beneficiaries. It went from
58. 1:3915 million to 21.27 million.
59. 1:41>> That covers all of Taiwan.
60. 1:42>> It’s everywhere in Taiwan, so parents
61. 1:44nowadays are also...
62. 1:45>> Helping.
63. 1:45>> Yes, so stock accumulation has become a
64. 1:47national trend.
65. 1:48>> Right, including market-cap-weighted,
66. 1:50active, and leveraged types—how
67. 1:52should one choose?
68. 1:53>> Right, here we need to see, as we tell
69. 1:55our investor friends, you cannot be
70. 1:57influenced by the raw numbers alone.
71. 1:59You need to understand how the Taipei
72. 2:01stock market has risen this year. If
73. 2:03you look at the top ten largest ETFs by
74. 2:06market cap, assume they had a market
75. 2:08value of 1 trillion last year; if the
76. 2:10Taipei stock market rose by 70%, it
77. 2:12should theoretically become 1.7
78. 2:14trillion. So, if the index is up by 70%
79. 2:16, any stock with gains lower than that
80. 2:19means you haven't kept pace with this
81. 2:21year's index growth. Exactly, so if
82. 2:23it's been more than a year, there will
83. 2:24be figures to show.
84. 2:25>> Like the Taiwan 50, the veteran
85. 2:27benchmark.
86. 2:29>> Yes, its scale has already reached 2.5
87. 2:32trillion, so its growth this year is
88. 2:35150%.
89. 2:36>> Additionally, 0098A is currently the
90. 2:38strongest performer among actively
91. 2:40managed funds. Look at its scale; last
92. 2:42year it was only 24 billion, but by
93. 2:44early October, it had already reached
94. 2:46291 billion. You could say everyone is
95. 2:48well aware that it's performing well,
96. 2:49so capital has been shifting there,
97. 2:50which is why you see such massive
98. 2:52growth in its scale. Furthermore, with
99. 2:53the index surging this year, leveraged
100. 2:55ETFs are also very popular. Look at the
101. 2:57Yuanta Taiwan Top 50 Leveraged 2X ETF;
102. 2:59its scale was 23.6 billion last year,
103. 3:01and now it has reached 276.7 billion—
104. 3:03a growth of 5.9 times. However, what
105. 3:05one needs to be careful about here is
106. 3:07that for leveraged ETFs, if the stock
107. 3:08market pulls back significantly, its
108. 3:10volatility is double that of 0050. So,
109. 3:12with such a large scale, a pullback
110. 3:14could create immense pressure for
111. 3:16investors.
112. 3:17>> Right, how has 0050 performed this year
113. 3:20?
114. 3:21>> Its performance this year has certainly
115. 3:22been excellent. As you can see, this is
116. 3:25the dividend-adjusted weekly chart for
117. 3:270050. You can see it has two stages,
118. 3:29divided starting from 2020. 2020 was
119. 3:31last year, with the Trump tariffs. You
120. 3:34can see that before that, in 2023, it
121. 3:36rose from 21.7 to 50. It took about two
122. 3:39years for that gain; look at the slope,
123. 3:42it was very, very flat.
124. 3:43>> But look at this past year; it has been
125. 3:45very strong. So, for investors who
126. 3:47invested in 0050, they would feel that
127. 3:49from last year to this year, their
128. 3:51assets have been inflating very quickly
129. 3:53. It just happened to benefit from the
130. 3:55AI theme, so if you chose 0050 over
131. 3:57these two years, you would find the
132. 3:59returns to be huge. Look, last year's
133. 4:01gain was 36.87 points, and this year,
134. 4:04up to October, the peak gain has
135. 4:06already reached over 80%. So for
136. 4:08holders, if it's simpler—because
137. 4:09it’s straightforward—you don't need
138. 4:11to overthink it. As long as you’re
139. 4:13bullish on the TAIEX, you just buy it
140. 4:15directly, so for regular savings plans
141. 4:17or long-term investors, they basically
142. 4:18feel that this year has been very easy.
143. 4:20>> But for short-term traders, it’s been
144. 4:22very tough.
145. 4:23>> Right, so those who just closed their
146. 4:24eyes and kept up their regular
147. 4:26investments should be quite happy now.
148. 4:28We can see the top ten performances.
149. 4:29>> Yes. This list here shows the top ten
150. 4:32performing ETFs this year. You can see
151. 4:34that the biggest gainer this year is in
152. 4:36this column: oil prices. Oil prices
153. 4:38kept rising because the conflict
154. 4:39between the US and Iran hasn't ended,
155. 4:41so oil has stayed at a high level.
156. 4:43>> So for oil, you can see it’s been
157. 4:44rising in both the first and second
158. 4:45half of the year.
159. 4:46>> In the first half, this ETF rose by 70%
160. 4:49.
161. 4:49>> In the second half, it doubled again.
162. 4:51>> Right, but that’s because of the war.
163. 4:52>> Exactly, so if oil prices plummet this
164. 4:55year, it could drop very sharply. This
165. 4:57one belongs to the commodity-related
166. 4:59leveraged ETFs. Looking at the others
167. 5:01that performed well, they are all
168. 5:02Taiwan-related. Regarding why we
169. 5:04mention the 2x leverage—in terms of
170. 5:06scale, the Yuanta Taiwan 50 2x
171. 5:07Leveraged ETF, for example, has grown
172. 5:09fivefold since last year.
173. 5:11>> Many people rushed to buy the 2x
174. 5:12because the index was rising too
175. 5:14aggressively, and some investors with a
176. 5:16higher risk appetite chose it because
177. 5:19its performance is right here—it's
178. 5:21really good, up 1.4 to 1.5 times this
179. 5:23year.
180. 5:23>> Additionally, our semiconductor sector
181. 5:25is also very strong; for instance, the
182. 5:27Mega Taiwan Foundry fund rose 1.3 times
183. 5:28, and the others are all related to
184. 5:30semiconductors as well. Like this
185. 5:32Cathay Technology ETF, it’s ranked
186. 5:34tenth, but look—it rose 1.2 times in
187. 5:36the first half of the year.
188. 5:37>> In the second half...so most of this
189. 5:39year's gains happened in the first half
190. 5:41.
191. 5:41>> Yes, so the first half saw aggressive
192. 5:42growth, but in the second half, apart
193. 5:44from oil, the volatility was very small
194. 5:45.
195. 5:45>> Indeed. Well, the trend in the second
196. 5:48half was quite divergent.
197. 5:49>> Right, because many investors saw that
198. 5:50the Korean stock market was very strong
199. 5:52in the first half.
200. 5:53>> So investment trusts issued some ETNs,
201. 5:54but you can see that the Korean stock
202. 5:56market in the second half......
203. 5:57>> triggered circuit breakers several
204. 5:59times. Several times, yes. The big
205. 6:01reason for the Korean stock market's
206. 6:02rise was the growth in memory chips, so
207. 6:04during the first half...
208. 6:06>> The Korean market had significant
209. 6:07volatility, and at the time, because
210. 6:09many Korean financial institutions also
211. 6:11issued some leveraged ETNs on
212. 6:13individual stocks, it caused a lot of
213. 6:14market turmoil. So if we look at Taiwan
214. 6:17, Taiwan's market in the second half—
215. 6:19our Taipei stock market has been
216. 6:20hitting new highs, while the Korean
217. 6:22stock market seems to be trending
218. 6:24downward again in October.
219. 6:25>> So the Korean stock market is
220. 6:27performing very weakly.
221. 6:28>> It is clear that in the international
222. 6:30market, the Taipei stock market is
223. 6:32showing great strength. We are highly
224. 6:35correlated with the SOX index and have
225. 6:37many excellent companies, not just
226. 6:39focused on the memory sector, so our
227. 6:40stock trends remain very strong, though
228. 6:42the active performance is quite
229. 6:44divergent. If we look at this year's
230. 6:47performance up to October 12th, the top
231. 6:50gainer is actually Han Quan, and the
232. 6:52largest gain is still from 98A.
233. 6:54>> This is known as the "golden hen," with
234. 6:56very aggressive growth, and investors
235. 6:58are very happy because its manager is
236. 7:00quite famous.
237. 7:01>> Its performance was primarily driven by
238. 7:03the first half of the year.
239. 7:04>> It rose 92%in the first half, and 5%in
240. 7:07the second half.
241. 7:08>> In addition, the second place is 992A,
242. 7:11which rose 98%. Also, the third place
243. 7:14is 98A, but you can see that further
244. 7:16down, some have dropped by 20%, which
245. 7:18is quite severe.
246. 7:20>> Look, from the price at the end of June
247. 7:22, like 988A dropping from 22 to 17, a
248. 7:2420%decline, investors feel this price
249. 7:27gap is significant. A five-dollar drop
250. 7:29per share means a 5,000 NTD loss, which
251. 7:31is not small, so for those who chased
252. 7:33the high, the second half has been
253. 7:35tough. Since they all bought
254. 7:36actively-managed funds, the difference
255. 7:38is huge, with three of them actually
256. 7:39falling in the second half. Right, so
257. 7:41where does the difference lie?
258. 7:42>> The reason it was strong in the first
259. 7:44half, like 988A, was that it was likely
260. 7:45betting on memory, but in the second
261. 7:47half, they basically disposed of most
262. 7:48of those. They shifted their holdings.
263. 7:50They swapped stocks—like this Lu Mi
264. 7:51Cheng was there before—they changed
265. 7:53several in the middle, and S is likely
266. 7:54a recent purchase.
267. 7:55>> Like 990, it also fell 20%in the second
268. 7:57half after a major portfolio reshuffle.
269. 7:59So fund managers are truly...
270. 8:01>> How they select stocks is very
271. 8:02important.
272. 8:03>> Yes, they are under immense pressure
273. 8:04because when things rise, they chase
274. 8:06strong stocks; that is the
275. 8:07characteristic of active management.
276. 8:08But during a correction, if everyone
277. 8:10encounters headwinds, active managers
278. 8:12might panic due to performance pressure
279. 8:14. Their strategy might shift to being
280. 8:17more conservative, or if their
281. 8:19rebalancing is unsuccessful, it can
282. 8:21take a long time to recover, which is
283. 8:23why we can see that...
284. 8:24>> The top gainer in the first half, like
285. 8:26988A...
286. 8:27>> It went up by 121%, then dropped off
287. 8:29completely in the second half.
288. 8:30>> Right.
289. 8:31>> But "Yao Zi Jin Mu" is more stable; for
290. 8:33instance, it earned 92%in the first
291. 8:34half. The second place, 992A, earned 70
292. 8:37%. They have similar holdings like TSMC
293. 8:39, EMC, MediaTek, Nan Ya PCB, and
294. 8:41investments in thermal solutions, so
295. 8:43their returns are more robust—they've
296. 8:45caught the main AI trend. Indeed, so
297. 8:46we're offering this for everyone's
298. 8:48reference. Many feel that if they could
299. 8:50be precise with individual stocks,
300. 8:52they'd make a lot—that's true, but
301. 8:54it's very hard to be that precise. Now
302. 8:56that we're in the fourth quarter, how
303. 8:57should one invest toward the year-end?
304. 8:59>> As for the year-end, we are quite
305. 9:01optimistic through the end of the year
306. 9:02because there are no major surprises,
307. 9:04and the fundamentals of Taiwan's
308. 9:05electronics sector are solid, so there
309. 9:07shouldn't be any big problems. The only
310. 9:09issue is that market volume is slightly
311. 9:11insufficient, so investors just need a
312. 9:12good strategy: since there's nothing in
313. 9:14the fourth quarter pointing to a
314. 9:15decline, if it's going to rise, buying
315. 9:17heavily on big dips shouldn't be a
316. 9:18problem.
317. 9:19>> Right, okay, so buy during the
318. 9:20pullbacks.
319. 9:21>> Yes. Stay on the buying side.
320. 9:23>> No need to worry.
321. 9:24>> No need to worry, because the fourth
322. 9:25quarter hasn't dropped in the past few
323. 9:26years, so we don't think it will drop
324. 9:28this fourth quarter either.
325. 9:29>> It reached this high point, so it
326. 9:30should consolidate and take a break;
327. 9:32many people were waiting, thinking, "
328. 9:34I'll wait a bit longer, wait a bit
329. 9:35longer," and then it never happened.
330. 9:37The highs kept climbing toward 50,000,
331. 9:38so it would have been better to start
332. 9:40in the second half—for example, after
333. 9:42the big July drop, buying during the
334. 9:44dips in August and September actually
335. 9:45would have yielded pretty good profits.
336. 9:47>> Right, okay. We just saw that the
337. 9:49popular ETFs this year performed very
338. 9:51well, but if you still want to test
339. 9:53your own skills, how should you operate
340. 9:55in the fourth quarter year-end?
341. 9:57>> I would advise investor friends that
342. 9:58since the stock market has risen from
343. 10:0017,300 last year to nearly 50,000
344. 10:02points, the growth has been truly
345. 10:03significant. I would suggest that in
346. 10:05the short term, you should consider
347. 10:07where your risks lie after two years of
348. 10:09growth. So, what should you do at this
349. 10:11time? I think dollar-cost averaging is
350. 10:12a good strategy because with a fixed
351. 10:14amount, you don't buy too much, and you
352. 10:16start to get to know ETFs. Because the
353. 10:17main thing with ETFs is that,
354. 10:19ultimately, there is one question:
355. 10:20whether you want to establish a core
356. 10:22position. What does "core" mean? A core
357. 10:24position means this ETF makes up a
358. 10:26large part of your portfolio; how large
359. 10:27depends on the individual. Personally,
360. 10:29I'm used to allocating 50%, keeping it
361. 10:31at 50%.
362. 10:32>> And the rest can be satellite ETFs.
363. 10:34Since you're allocating 50%, there's no
364. 10:35need to rush, because in the stock
365. 10:37market, you wouldn't want to buy all 50
366. 10:39%at once. You can take a few years to
367. 10:40buy it, just buy slowly in batches.
368. 10:42>> Yes, because the stock market is great
369. 10:43in that it usually has a big drop every
370. 10:45two years or so. It hadn't risen for
371. 10:46two years, and then we had a big drop
372. 10:48last year.
373. 10:48>> So don't always feel like you have to
374. 10:50go all-in, you know. Right, right. For
375. 10:51example, say I want to build a core
376. 10:53position. Looking from 2019 to now,
377. 10:55whenever you encounter a big drop—
378. 10:57like on this weekly chart—when the KD
379. 10:59indicator is at a lower level, such as
380. 11:01during last year's crash, that's when
381. 11:03you should buy more heavily.
382. 11:06>> At other times, you should buy smaller
383. 11:08amounts. You can use dollar-cost
384. 11:10averaging, perhaps buying 5,000 or
385. 11:1210,000 a month, and during a big crash,
386. 11:15you might buy 200,000 or 500,000,
387. 11:17depending on your capital. So once your
388. 11:20core position is determined, you can
389. 11:22then adopt a mix of lump-sum and
390. 11:23dollar-cost averaging; you don't
391. 11:25necessarily have to choose just one.
392. 11:27>> Yes, some traders feel that when the
393. 11:28stock market is rising, they wonder
394. 11:30when is a good time for dollar-cost
395. 11:31averaging, so they hesitate.
396. 11:33>> Right, I don't know when exactly I can
397. 11:35buy at
398. 11:35>> Right.
399. 11:36>> a better price. I often tell a joke: I
400. 11:38remember in 2021, TSMC's peak was 688,
401. 11:41and those who bought at 688 were mocked
402. 11:44because it later dropped to 370.
403. 11:46>> But with the current stock price at
404. 11:4825,000,
405. 11:48>> no matter how you bought back then,
406. 11:50>> Yes.
407. 11:50>> you would have made a huge profit.
408. 11:52>> So for lump-sum investing, it’s very
409. 11:53important and requires more
410. 11:54consideration, whereas for dollar-cost
411. 11:55averaging, the entry point doesn't
412. 11:56matter as much because you're in it for
413. 11:57the long term. As for short-term
414. 11:59strategies, that's not how you should
415. 12:00be buying. So dollar-cost averaging is
416. 12:02for the long term. You might be buying
417. 12:03for your children or for your own
418. 12:05retirement, and you could be buying
419. 12:06continuously for several years. But for
420. 12:08lump-sum investing, you have to look at
421. 12:09the technicals. That’s why I say when
422. 12:11indicators are low, you have to be
423. 12:12patient. Like last year—if you
424. 12:13couldn't hold on, you might have faced
425. 12:15a big drop due to Trump's tariffs.
426. 12:16>> Yes.
427. 12:17>> Since the index has already been rising
428. 12:18for over a year and a half, look at the
429. 12:20Taipei stock market rising from 17,300
430. 12:21last year to where it is now; from a
431. 12:23risk perspective, it’s actually quite
432. 12:25significant. If it's significant, you
433. 12:26have to be patient. You don't know when
434. 12:28it will drop, but it always does. When
435. 12:30it bounces back and you see the daily
436. 12:32chart dip, you can sell.
437. 12:33>> Yes.
438. 12:34>> As for the core, it’s very important,
439. 12:36because you must think about the
440. 12:37purpose of your investment. If you want
441. 12:40>> dividends, of course you will buy
442. 12:41high-dividend ones.
443. 12:42>> If you want growth, you wouldn't go for
444. 12:44high dividends, because they can't both
445. 12:46coexist. For example, if you want high
446. 12:48dividends and you also want the share
447. 12:49price to keep growing, you'll notice
448. 12:51that many high-dividend ETFs rarely
449. 12:52undergo stock splits. Just like 0050,
450. 12:54it splits, and you can see it split
451. 12:57consistently. Right, because typical
452. 12:59Taiwanese ETFs have an issue price of
453. 13:0110 or 15 dollars at most.
454. 13:02>> That’s why some stocks split as they
455. 13:04rise to 100, 200, or 300, while some
456. 13:05high-dividend stocks never split and
457. 13:07stay around 10 or 20 dollars—it's
458. 13:08because they can't grow, they just
459. 13:10churn.
460. 13:10>> So, if you are strictly pursuing
461. 13:12returns, don't touch high-dividend ones
462. 13:14, and you should also reconsider bond
463. 13:16types. Because with bond ETFs, is your
464. 13:18goal to hedge risk or to make money? If
465. 13:21you want to make money, bond market
466. 13:23trends are actually quite weak; you can
467. 13:25see many bond ETFs are below 10 dollars
468. 13:28.
469. 13:28>> If you invest for so long and it's
470. 13:29still under 10 dollars, it means you're
471. 13:31losing money.
472. 13:32>> So it won't help you with asset
473. 13:33allocation or earn you better returns;
474. 13:35it will actually drag down your overall
475. 13:36performance. This is a common
476. 13:38misconception, thinking that if stocks
477. 13:40are bad, you should buy bonds. If you
478. 13:41think the stock market is bad, you
479. 13:43should just hold more cash. Actually,
480. 13:45as we mentioned, the stock market can
481. 13:47fall very quickly.
482. 13:48>> For example, last year it fell from
483. 13:49January and bottomed out in April,
484. 13:50falling for three months after April.
485. 13:52>> Right, and the magnitude was huge.
486. 13:54>> Yes.
487. 13:54>> So when you really encounter a decline,
488. 13:56you don't actually need to wait months.
489. 13:58Just set the ETF aside, and after three
490. 14:00or four months, just start buying
491. 14:01slowly.
492. 14:02>> So I’m telling investors that you
493. 14:03need to rethink your strategy.
494. 14:05>> Perhaps you've been using your current
495. 14:07strategy for a long time and found it
496. 14:09doesn't make much money, so you should
497. 14:11adjust to some better ETFs and buy them
498. 14:12long-term; it's better than watching
499. 14:14the stock fluctuations every day and
500. 14:16feeling annoyed.
501. 14:17>> It feels exhausting, so this way is
502. 14:19better.
503. 14:19>> It's exhausting. The analyst believes
504. 14:21there is still a chance to reach 50,000
505. 14:23points, but of course, trying to pick
506. 14:25individual stocks will be extremely
507. 14:27difficult.
508. 14:27>> Right, right, because sometimes
509. 14:29individual stocks fall and it gets
510. 14:30really tiring.
511. 14:31>> However, the index is still on an
512. 14:32upward trend, so we remain optimistic
513. 14:34about the index position by the market
514. 14:36close on December 30th. It’s quite
515. 14:37safe, so you can buy some ETFs, which
516. 14:39should be very relaxing.
517. 14:40>> All right, buy the dip. Thank you very
518. 14:42much, Mr. Li Ze-chen, for being on the
519. 14:44show today, and thank you all for
520. 14:45watching and joining us. Coming up next
521. 14:47is our commercial break, please stay
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