ESTOU DE OLHO NESSES 3 ATIVOS... (ALTO POTENCIAL) — Transcript

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1. 0:00These are three of the assets that I
2. 0:02see the most potential in for next year
3. 0:04. And, honestly, I intend to add to my
4. 0:07positions in the coming weeks,
5. 0:09especially if the crypto market
6. 0:11corrects. In my last video, I mentioned
7. 0:14that I have some theses I’m investing
8. 0:16in and that I’m taking on risk right
9. 0:18now, just as I bought Bitcoin in recent
10. 0:21months. And many people asked me to
11. 0:23make this video to explain what those
12. 0:25theses are. So, in today’s video, my
13. 0:27goal is quite simple. I’m going to
14. 0:29reveal three theses, explain the
15. 0:30details of each, and at the end,
16. 0:32explain the rationale—what I’m
17. 0:34truly looking for and allocating into
18. 0:36the crypto market right now to achieve
19. 0:39good results throughout '27 and '28. So
20. 0:41, if you’re hesitant about taking on
21. 0:43a bit more risk in your portfolio or
22. 0:45looking into an altcoin, this video is
23. 0:47essential for you. Just before I dive
24. 0:49into the video content, as always, I
25. 0:51want to ask for your support. If you
26. 0:52enjoy my work, leave a like and
27. 0:54subscribe to the channel so I can keep
28. 0:56updating you on everything most
29. 0:57relevant in the crypto market. And here
30. 1:00, I ask you to view this video as
31. 1:02something even more important than just
32. 1:03grabbing a list of assets; I want you
33. 1:05to understand the rationale behind each
34. 1:07of these investments. And from that,
35. 1:09you can also manage to allocate and
36. 1:11take advantage of positions in other
37. 1:12assets. Perhaps the first point before
38. 1:14I start explaining my first investment
39. 1:16thesis is to explain something that has
40. 1:18changed significantly in my positioning
41. 1:20. In this cycle, I am absolutely
42. 1:23focused on assets that are managing to
43. 1:26generate results more considerably,
44. 1:28especially from a revenue standpoint,
45. 1:30and present better-founded
46. 1:32characteristics. And naturally, there
47. 1:35is no way to talk about these two
48. 1:37characteristics without mentioning
49. 1:38Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is a very
50. 1:41interesting project to me, first
51. 1:42because I have been positioned in it
52. 1:44since the very beginning of the project
53. 1:46, essentially from zero, because we
54. 1:48within the crypto community positioned
55. 1:50ourselves heavily for the Hyperliquid
56. 1:52airdrop because of one of our analysts,
57. 1:55right? Yeah, and a great partner and
58. 1:57top analyst here in Brazil, Juan, was
59. 1:58one of the guys who brought Hyperliquid
60. 2:00—the Hyperliquid thesis—to Brazil.
61. 2:02He was one of the guys who brought it
62. 2:04right at the pre-airdrop stage, and
63. 2:05then we took more significant positions
64. 2:07starting from the $ 10 mark. Even so,
65. 2:10throughout this entire downtrend,
66. 2:13especially when Hyperliquid had this
67. 2:16last correction around the 30s and also
68. 2:19the 44 level, we bought even more
69. 2:21Hyperliquid. And it's interesting here,
70. 2:24right? Because this is a project that
71. 2:26goes against the market trend a bit. If
72. 2:28we look at it from January to now, it
73. 2:30has delivered a gain of about 300%. So
74. 2:33it showed significant appreciation. I
75. 2:35think the million-dollar question when
76. 2:37we see something like this is quite
77. 2:39simple. Why was Hyperliquid one of the
78. 2:41few projects that appreciated even
79. 2:43during a bear market? What did this
80. 2:45project get so right to make this
81. 2:47dynamic possible? And to understand
82. 2:50that, we first need to understand some
83. 2:53factors that are grounding and driving
84. 2:55Hyperliquid. The first is that they are
85. 2:58curing the crypto market bubble. Their
86. 3:01focus isn't exclusively on being a perp
87. 3:03DEX, meaning an exchange for futures
88. 3:05markets aimed only at the crypto market
89. 3:08. But they are looking primarily at US
90. 3:11stocks and the whole regulation process
91. 3:14. It's no coincidence that there were
92. 3:17recently rumors of a potential
93. 3:19partnership between Hyperliquid and
94. 3:21Kraken's parent company, Payward, and
95. 3:23also that they positioned themselves
96. 3:25heavily in real-world assets, becoming
97. 3:28one of the reference markets for
98. 3:30trading oil, gold, and various other
99. 3:32positions, especially in the
100. 3:34aftermarket, that moment when the
101. 3:36market isn't trading. In fact, during
102. 3:39the Iran crisis, a large part of the
103. 3:41funds used Hyperliquid to hedge
104. 3:43positions and also to speculate in
105. 3:46relation to oil. Furthermore,
106. 3:48Hyperliquid was also mentioned
107. 3:50regarding the regulatory aspect by the
108. 3:52US government. One of the major factors
109. 3:55that fueled the last leg up for
110. 3:57Hyperliquid in early September was
111. 3:58precisely during Trump's speech, where
112. 4:00he mentioned the asset. And here, for
113. 4:03me, we have perhaps the example of
114. 4:04everything that is most interesting
115. 4:05from the point of view of the
116. 4:07protocol's health. The protocol managed
117. 4:09to maintain a very significant
118. 4:11operational volume there. So they
119. 4:14managed to maintain an entire demand
120. 4:16structure even during the bear market,
121. 4:19while at the same time they managed to
122. 4:22introduce new theses, such as price
123. 4:24speculation theses focused on
124. 4:26prediction markets, betting, other
125. 4:28structures, and added to all that, also
126. 4:31maintaining the real-world assets
127. 4:33thesis. And with all that, they managed
128. 4:36to have one fundamental thing: revenue.
129. 4:39And here perhaps enters the big point
130. 4:40of what I see within the crypto market.
131. 4:43The crypto market until 2021,
132. 4:45especially the cycle before last, was
133. 4:48heavily based on creating narratives
134. 4:51and generating FOMO among people,
135. 4:54rather than necessarily having a good
136. 4:57product or one that delivers any
137. 4:59significant results. What happens
138. 5:03starting in 2021? We saw investments
139. 5:06from many venture capital funds,
140. 5:08funding a series of projects. And '24
141. 5:11and '25 were marked by the launch of
142. 5:13multiple projects that changed
143. 5:15absolutely nothing. We literally had
144. 5:18the launch of hundreds to thousands of
145. 5:21layer-two solutions that are now
146. 5:23abandoned. If you look at the activity
147. 5:27levels on networks like Scroll, or even
148. 5:30other layer-twos that managed to
149. 5:32develop minimally, like OTMK. These are
150. 5:36very low compared to all the capital
151. 5:37they raised. And what does this show? A
152. 5:40lack of functionality within the crypto
153. 5:42market. So, what do we have that is
154. 5:43interesting? Hyperliquid goes against
155. 5:45the grain of that. It actually built a
156. 5:47product that is highly used and not
157. 5:49used exclusively by crypto users, but
158. 5:51one that has also attracted its level
159. 5:53of institutional investors. And what
160. 5:55was the practical result of that? They
161. 5:58took a large portion of this revenue
162. 6:00and carried out a token buyback process
163. 6:02, currently burning almost 5%of the
164. 6:03total asset supply. And in practice,
165. 6:06the asset managed to renew its market
166. 6:08cap, right? Hitting an all-time high in
167. 6:10market cap and an all-time high in
168. 6:12price. But what is the interesting
169. 6:14detail? At the peak of the '25 bull run
170. 6:18, Hyperliquid was at a valuation of
171. 6:2015.5 million dollars. At this very
172. 6:24moment, it has a market capitalization
173. 6:25close to 17 million dollars. So, notice
174. 6:27that it is very close, right? Thinking
175. 6:30by this logic, the price should also be
176. 6:32very close. But that is not what
177. 6:33happens. At the peak of the bull cycle,
178. 6:37Hyperliquid was around 43 to 42 dollars
179. 6:39, and at this very moment, it is at 8
180. 6:41dollars. So, why did it appreciate so
181. 6:46much compared to its market
182. 6:47capitalization? Precisely because of
183. 6:49this burn process. So, Hyperliquid
184. 6:52built a very interesting structure,
185. 6:54which was this structure of position
186. 6:56buybacks and token buybacks. And this
187. 6:59strengthened the entire growth of the
188. 7:01asset. So, as long as the asset can
189. 7:04bring innovation and structure, that
190. 7:06will naturally happen. And for me, it
191. 7:09is one of the assets most prepared to
192. 7:11capture institutional investors and the
193. 7:13new regulatory context in the United
194. 7:15States. It is no coincidence that we
195. 7:16have been talking about Hyperliquid for
196. 7:17a long time on this channel. We talked
197. 7:19about it back on March 30th, right,
198. 7:21when I commented on some altcoin theses
199. 7:22that I would keep watching during the
200. 7:24bear market. And the first thesis I
201. 7:26mentioned was precisely about
202. 7:27Hyperliquid. And we have also been
203. 7:29talking about Hyperliquid since
204. 7:31December 2024, precisely the period
205. 7:33when the project was being introduced
206. 7:35to the market. So it's not a new thesis
207. 7:37, quite the opposite, right? It is a
208. 7:39position we have been holding for 2
209. 7:41years now. And this might be the first
210. 7:43point I want to reinforce here for you
211. 7:45regarding this next cycle. Two things I
212. 7:47would be looking at closely. First,
213. 7:49projects that are bursting the crypto
214. 7:51bubble and that manage to generate real
215. 7:53efficiency for the markets and projects
216. 7:55that can capture revenue. And based on
217. 7:57that, I think one thing that changes
218. 7:59within crypto market positions is for
219. 8:01us to actually have convictions. In my
220. 8:03case, for example, I have held my
221. 8:04position in Hyperliquid for practically
222. 8:062 years. So, since the beginning of the
223. 8:09project, I stayed allocated and I
224. 8:11continue to be allocated with a
225. 8:12significant portion, over 10%of my
226. 8:14personal position within the crypto
227. 8:16market and our community's portfolio.
228. 8:19In this thesis, that was one of the
229. 8:20factors that even helped our portfolio
230. 8:22not to suffer so much from the market
231. 8:24downturn. So this is just to show a
232. 8:26dynamic of how theses that we have high
233. 8:28conviction in can have a very favorable
234. 8:30impact on our portfolio. The second
235. 8:32thesis here is an almost logical and
236. 8:34mathematical one. And it was a highly
237. 8:36criticized thesis in recent months and,
238. 8:38honestly, to me, the best allocation
239. 8:41window for it has passed a little, but
240. 8:43I still see it as a good allocation
241. 8:45window. I am talking about Strategy.
242. 8:48Strategy, for those who don't know, is
243. 8:49a Treasury Company or a company that
244. 8:51buys bitcoins. And what is the base
245. 8:54thesis or the main thesis here for
246. 8:55Strategy? Basically, they take
247. 8:58advantage of market euphoria moments to
248. 9:01manage to raise debt at lower prices
249. 9:03and buy more bitcoins for their
250. 9:05treasury. And it's interesting to
251. 9:08mention that it has suffered
252. 9:10significantly in recent months. If we
253. 9:14look at the MNAV, which is precisely
254. 9:16the relationship between bitcoins and
255. 9:18the company's value, it went from a
256. 9:20level where the company was worth about
257. 9:23four times their bitcoin reserve, back
258. 9:25in late 2024, to a moment when the
259. 9:28company was worth less than what it
260. 9:30held in bitcoins in its treasury,
261. 9:32especially if we also considered the
262. 9:34company's debts. And perhaps the peak
263. 9:38of the criticism towards Strategy was
264. 9:40precisely during the STRC crisis, which
265. 9:42is the main instrument they use to
266. 9:44raise debt, when the paper that should
267. 9:47have been worth $ 100 reached less than
268. 9:49$ 75 by mid-to-late June. Many people
269. 9:53claimed at that moment that it would be
270. 9:55the end of Strategy, that Strategy was
271. 9:57failing and it would stop making sense.
272. 10:00It was actually the moment we
273. 10:01reinforced the Strategy thesis within
274. 10:03the community, doubled down on this
275. 10:05thesis, and shortly after, something
276. 10:07very interesting happened, which was
277. 10:09Sailor selling bitcoins and beginning
278. 10:11to accumulate a large dollar reserve.
279. 10:14And at first, everyone looked at this
280. 10:16as if it were a great betrayal to
281. 10:18Bitcoin. And in my view, it was not. In
282. 10:20my view, it was Sailor sending the
283. 10:22necessary message that the market
284. 10:23needed to maintain the stability of
285. 10:25Strategy. It is no coincidence that
286. 10:29after this move in late September, we
287. 10:31see the recovery turnaround of the STRC
288. 10:34, which is the main anchor for the
289. 10:36entire structure of Strategy's leverage
290. 10:38, and at the same time, we see a
291. 10:40stabilization of its MNAV above one.
292. 10:44And here perhaps enters my main thesis
293. 10:46on Strategy: Orlando, why are you long
294. 10:48on Strategy? The logic is quite simple.
295. 10:51The traditional market naturally does
296. 10:53not have such a complete view of the
297. 10:55crypto market. And basically,
298. 10:57everything involving crypto gets a huge
299. 10:59discount during the bear market period
300. 11:01in the crypto market. This is something
301. 11:03you come to understand over the cycles.
302. 11:05What do you notice throughout the
303. 11:06crypto market cycles? You will have a
304. 11:08horrible year where the metrics of any
305. 11:10project will drop 70, 80, 90%. And
306. 11:14often, bad projects will die in this
307. 11:15process, but good projects will become
308. 11:17extremely discounted. And the
309. 11:19traditional market also reflects this
310. 11:21perception for crypto stocks. So when I
311. 11:23look now at stocks like Strategy,
312. 11:25Robinhood, Coinbase, to me they are all
313. 11:27extremely discounted. Why? Because
314. 11:30these are projects that generate
315. 11:31revenue, have a very strong
316. 11:32consolidation in the market, will not
317. 11:34disappear from one cycle to another,
318. 11:36and the moment the crypto market heats
319. 11:38up again, volume and relevance will
320. 11:39return to these projects. And in
321. 11:41Strategy's case, the moment Bitcoin
322. 11:43starts to appreciate and Strategy's
323. 11:45treasury naturally manages to
324. 11:46appreciate as well, this will generate
325. 11:48a speculative factor that will create a
326. 11:50premium on these shares, and
327. 11:52consequently, this appreciation. So for
328. 11:54me, my position in Strategy is a
329. 11:56well-thought-out position. When I look
330. 11:58at MicroStrategy today, I see a company
331. 12:01with a 5.1 billion dollar reserve, with
332. 12:03the capacity to maintain its dividend
333. 12:05costs versus its 6.7 billion dollar
334. 12:07debt for a long time. So, they will
335. 12:10have the capacity throughout the entire
336. 12:12market rally to leverage even further,
337. 12:14and at the same time, the premium the
338. 12:16market is paying for MicroStrategy is
339. 12:18only 10%of its treasury size, and that
340. 12:20premium tends to expand. So for me, if
341. 12:22the market falls, it won't pay a
342. 12:24premium lower or much lower than 1%of
343. 12:26MicroStrategy's treasury, because it is
344. 12:29far from the risk of bankruptcy,
345. 12:30especially due to the size of its
346. 12:32reserve. On the other hand, if the
347. 12:34market appreciates, this 1.1 premium
348. 12:36tends to become a premium of 2, maybe
349. 12:392.5. This will mean doubling the result
350. 12:41in Bitcoin. So, that is why I chose to
351. 12:44allocate a portion of my Bitcoin risk
352. 12:45to MicroStrategy, because I will remain
353. 12:48exposed to Bitcoin, only a more
354. 12:49leveraged Bitcoin. And for me, this is
355. 12:51a smarter strategy than risking it on a
356. 12:53random altcoin, because here I am still
357. 12:55effectively exposed to Bitcoin, exposed
358. 12:57to the entire Bitcoin structure in a
359. 12:59model that has already proven itself
360. 13:01over two cycles, just at a cheaper
361. 13:03moment. And this was precisely when we
362. 13:06explained this thesis, I explained this
363. 13:08thesis on May 11th, at the beginning of
364. 13:09the whole MicroStrategy crisis, when I
365. 13:11commented on why Saylor wanted to sell
366. 13:13Bitcoins and what the practical
367. 13:14consequences of that would be for this
368. 13:16dynamic. So, it was a second thesis,
369. 13:19right, that once again required a lot
370. 13:20of conviction from us; I honestly won't
371. 13:22say that now is the perfect time to
372. 13:23allocate to MicroStrategy. The perfect
373. 13:26moment was when the NAV was close to
374. 13:27one, right, practically at one, and we
375. 13:28were able to take advantage of it. But
376. 13:30I still see a very good moment there.
377. 13:33And before I comment on my third thesis
378. 13:34and then give an even broader view of
379. 13:36other assets that I believe will
380. 13:37perform well within this cycle, I want
381. 13:39to ask for your support. If you are
382. 13:40enjoying this video so far, leave a
383. 13:42like and subscribe to the channel here.
384. 13:44Also, if you liked this logic I
385. 13:45explained here about Strategy and you
386. 13:47want a video focused only on stocks
387. 13:49associated with the crypto ecosystem
388. 13:51and which theses I see, the good
389. 13:52fundamentals that make sense to me,
390. 13:54leave it in the comments and I can
391. 13:56organize a second video for the week
392. 13:58just commenting on stock and crypto
393. 13:59theses that I see, right, associated
394. 14:01with the crypto ecosystem, which I
395. 14:03still believe are well discounted and
396. 14:05well positioned. But let's go back
397. 14:07there. The third thesis I want to
398. 14:08comment on here is about Pendle. I'll
399. 14:10comment on this one more quickly.
400. 14:12Pendle, among these three, was the one
401. 14:14that, let's say, suffered the most,
402. 14:15that I'm mentioning here, it hasn't
403. 14:16risen that much yet, but it has already
404. 14:17had a very good recovery. And what is
405. 14:19Pendle's great merit? It is precisely
406. 14:21its entire ecosystem construction.
407. 14:24Pendle continued to have a very
408. 14:25relevant product, continued to get it
409. 14:27right with Pendle V2, and despite
410. 14:29having lost TVL, it continues to have
411. 14:30TVL and a recurring structure. And on
412. 14:34top of all that, when we look at the
413. 14:36amount of tokens in circulation, it has
414. 14:37basically reached very close to its cap
415. 14:39, which avoids potential selling
416. 14:41pressure and dilution. And when we look
417. 14:44at the revenue factor, Pendle is a
418. 14:46protocol that keeps generating revenue.
419. 14:50And this, for me, is one of the most
420. 14:52important metrics that exist, because
421. 14:54Pendle now directs part of its earnings
422. 14:56to its token structure. So once again,
423. 15:00I look at a project that is generating
424. 15:02revenue, that has demand, has
425. 15:04significant market penetration in its
426. 15:06segment, dominates more than 80 to 90%
427. 15:08of its total supply, and manages to
428. 15:11maintain its relevance. So, basically,
429. 15:13that summarizes a bit of my positioning
430. 15:15for this cycle. I tend to have a
431. 15:17portfolio with few assets. I don't want
432. 15:19to have a portfolio with, perhaps, more
433. 15:21than 10 assets. And along with that, I
434. 15:23intend to have a position in a few
435. 15:25theses that I have wide conviction in,
436. 15:28that are generating revenue and results
437. 15:30at the moment, and that, mainly, have
438. 15:33some structure to carry out token
439. 15:35buybacks or distribute yields through
440. 15:37their main token, which will generate a
441. 15:40valuation effect, and this can be both
442. 15:42tokens or tokenized stocks, which for
443. 15:45me, I also believe should be entering
444. 15:48the portfolio of all investors in the
445. 15:50crypto market right now. And honestly,
446. 15:53in this cycle, I intend not to expose
447. 15:55myself much, or practically not expose
448. 15:56myself at all, to be quite honest, to
449. 15:58more speculative stocks. I'll give you
450. 16:00an example, which is the Robin Chain
451. 16:02tokens. I know there's a movement
452. 16:04happening very similar to what we saw
453. 16:06with Pump. Fun within the Solana
454. 16:08ecosystem. Honestly, some people who
455. 16:10know how to play that game will make
456. 16:11money, but I believe the vast majority
457. 16:12will end up losing, because those
458. 16:14assets are assets without fundamentals.
459. 16:15They are rising based on hype, and that
460. 16:17will certainly make money for those who
461. 16:19manage to time their entry and exit
462. 16:21right, but for me, those aren't the
463. 16:23type of theses I'm willing to invest in
464. 16:25and feel comfortable allocating to. I
465. 16:27believe a good structure, a good
466. 16:29portfolio is this one. So, if I can
467. 16:30give you one piece of advice right now,
468. 16:32I would look at your altcoins and
469. 16:33review them. Sometimes, making a
470. 16:36strategic switch to other assets that
471. 16:37have depreciated just as much as your
472. 16:39altcoins, but are generating revenue,
473. 16:41building structure, and have the
474. 16:42capacity for recovery, could be what
475. 16:44makes your portfolio take off,
476. 16:45especially in this market moment. And
477. 16:48with that, I know many people ask: "
478. 16:50Orlando, what if I wanted closer
479. 16:52guidance from you? Do you have anything
480. 16:54like that?" And the answer is yes. For
481. 16:56investors who allocate more than 1.5
482. 16:57million reais. We have a mentorship
483. 17:00model for that. So, if you want to
484. 17:01understand a little bit more, I'll
485. 17:03leave the link to my team's WhatsApp
486. 17:04here to schedule a meeting with me.
487. 17:06Feel free to reach out, it will be a
488. 17:07pleasure to assist you. So, I hope this
489. 17:09video has shown you a more complete
490. 17:11vision. Don't forget to leave a like
491. 17:12and subscribe to the channel. A big hug
492. 17:14and see you soon.