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Ep.1 - My 1st Livestream - Let's Do It! - Open Q&A — Transcript

by Volatility Trading Strategies · 33,628 words · 5,603 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:14well
0:50what am i doing here so if any of you
0:53out there can actually hear me
0:56i'm still working through a lot of
0:58issues here i i can see one eyeball so i
1:00think there is actually one person
1:03on here but i've ye i haven't figured
1:06out how to do the comment section yet so
1:09give me just a second here
1:13sorry i'm doing all of this on the fly
1:17so pause that
1:21wow this is going to be a disaster i
1:23apologize ahead of time um
1:27oh there you go somebody made a comment
1:29um
1:32awesome okay so this is working
1:34somebody's watching
1:36um okay
1:39i think i'll actually just wait for a
1:41few more people because i
1:43i ended up saying that it was going to
1:44be two o'clock
1:46and i'm not sure if everybody knows how
1:49to log in
1:50i'm not sure if they actually understood
1:52that it was just my regular youtube
1:54channel
1:54so um
1:58oh there's one person i know um
2:02the chinese characters i know who that
2:04is um
2:05okay so actually could you just let me
2:08know with you know a thumbs up or
2:10something if you can actually hear me
2:11that's the first test i need to do
2:13can you hear me speaking
2:17i guess you can see me somebody
2:19mentioned the background
2:25no nobody's gonna comment
2:34hmm
2:38oh okay so i guess everybody can hear me
2:40i'm just going to assume that's the case
2:43so let's wait for a few more people this
2:46is kind of cool
2:47um i can see on the top of my screen
2:50there's uh
2:51an eyeball section so
2:54there's 30 people watching right now
2:57which is uh pretty scary have to admit i
3:01was quite terrified to hit uh
3:03go live here
3:06everybody can hear me okay good so um
3:10i'm just gonna get right into this
3:11because i have no idea how long it's
3:13gonna be
3:13so first of all i don't know if i'm
3:15supposed to look there look here look
3:18over here at my screen i have no idea so
3:20i'm gonna just go through this one time
3:22i'll watch the rebroadcast later and i'm
3:25sure
3:25i will figure out what i'm doing here so
3:28i am just gonna
3:29go ahead and start i've got a little
3:31checklist here we did the sound check
3:34i can actually see the comments one
3:37thing i want
3:38a little bit of help with there's a
3:41comment right now on my screen
3:44from brian lynn can everybody in the
3:46comment section
3:47see his comment
3:52because of all the comments that are
3:53going are popping on my screen i'm
3:55wondering if everybody can see that as
3:57well
3:57that would be pretty cool look at the
4:00camera
4:01sorry maggie um i have no idea where i'm
4:03looking just forgive me for one time
4:05while i watch the rebroadcast
4:07and then um i'll figure out how to set
4:10this up right now my camera is about a
4:12foot above my computer screen
4:14so it's going to look like i'm looking
4:15down but trust me i will figure this out
4:18give me a few weeks
4:19the live streams will get better this is
4:21honestly just for a test
4:22so let me go through my checklist here
4:27intro videos
4:30so i'm going to hit you with a video and
4:32just give me a thumbs up if you can
4:47all right did everybody see that hear
4:48that not that you care you don't need
4:51the disclaimer we're not going to be
4:52talking about anything
4:53um too serious today but did you at
4:55least see the videos
4:57check the comment section
5:03this is pretty cool actually i'm i'm
5:05already kind of enjoying this i
5:07i gotta tell you i was so nervous
5:08hitting the button i've been sitting
5:10here at my computer
5:11for an hour just butterflies in my
5:14stomach
5:15i was gonna try to make up an excuse and
5:17say that i had some
5:18sound issues or something i did not want
5:20to hit that go live trust me so
5:22um this isn't so terrible and it
5:25actually reminds me i don't know if some
5:26of you know but i used to be a
5:27professional golfer
5:28years ago i retired in 2005. but um
5:33you know the butterfly feeling that i
5:34used to have on the first tee
5:36in every single tournament you know
5:38people tell you they're not nervous when
5:39they're teen off
5:40they're probably lying that feeling i
5:42haven't felt this in 15 years so
5:44that was uh pretty cool but um
5:48yeah so i want to just go through my
5:49little checklist here of things that
5:52just to confirm that the software works
5:54and that you are actually looking at the
5:56right things
5:56so the first thing i'm going to do is
5:58check a screen share
6:01i've got that set up here and i'm just
6:04going to pull up a spreadsheet
6:06essentially just i don't know showing
6:09you something in a spreadsheet
6:10just to make sure that everybody can see
6:12this i've got a lot of data in my
6:14spreadsheet so
6:15of course it it will be important for me
6:17to go through a few of these things and
6:20hopefully right now you're not looking
6:21at my face you're actually looking at
6:24um a spreadsheet that's you know i will
6:27expand on all of this stuff later on but
6:29just make sure that you can actually see
6:31that
6:32i'll go back to my face and there might
6:34be a little bit of delay in the comments
6:37so if i look like an idiot i'm just
6:39staring off into blank space
6:41it's because i think there's a little
6:42bit of a delay so
6:44um just let me know if you saw that
6:47spreadsheet when i put it up on the
6:48screen
6:53yes video worked
6:58okay good thank you very much that's
7:00awesome so
7:01screen share works which means i can go
7:03to
7:05the next test here um
7:08nope did that wrong already
7:11go back to the screen share and now
7:16let me know if you can actually see
7:20my thinkorswim software so right now i'm
7:24basically showing the chart of the s p
7:26500 here this is um
7:29thinkorswim from td ameritrade it's not
7:32a software that i use for my
7:34actual portfolio uh but this is the
7:36software that i always use for the
7:38videos
7:39because this looks way better my
7:40long-term portfolio is with interactive
7:42brokers
7:43and it's just the ugliest software
7:47you've ever seen it's terrible for
7:48videos so
7:49in the past once i started to actually
7:51show some option trades
7:53i wanted to actually show the pictures
7:55and show how i do things
7:57this is way more presentable than
7:58anything at interactive brokers
8:01so this is the software that you are
8:02going to get used to seeing basically if
8:04we ever do any trades
8:06if i show you stuff it'll be with that
8:08software but that's
8:10of course not where i actually do my
8:12long-term portfolio
8:14let me just check the comments
8:18toss is working thank you very much
8:21everybody
8:23so like an unprepared fool here i'm
8:25gonna look at my
8:27checklist all right spreadsheet good
8:31toss good
8:32all right that's i hate to say it that's
8:35pretty much all i had prepared today so
8:37i thought that was gonna take at least
8:38an hour
8:40i was anticipating some massive
8:42technical failures today
8:45so um but thanks everybody for joining
8:48we can talk for a little bit here but
8:50there's looks like there's 50 people
8:53i'll probably go over all of this stuff
8:55again we're gonna do um
8:57you know more formal presentation i'll
8:59give people a heads up i'll give you the
9:01time
9:01you can make yourself a coffee and join
9:03me for the live streams
9:05um but a lot of you might be wondering
9:07why i'm even doing this right because
9:09i've been making videos for
9:11um i feel like five years now i think i
9:14joined youtube in 2016
9:16and i actually did videos way before
9:18that i just didn't upload them i
9:20sent it to the community privately um
9:23so you might be wondering why i'm doing
9:25this at all and it's a very good
9:26question because
9:27videos are a good way to communicate and
9:29they're very easy
9:30so um basically the reasons that i
9:33wanted to
9:34attempt this and this experiment might
9:38fail miserably i might end the live
9:40streams i have no idea what the future
9:41holds but
9:42one of the things that i was thinking
9:43about is that i actually do have a lot
9:46of data
9:47right going back to the spreadsheets
9:51i have a lot of spreadsheets i have you
9:53know i've been doing this for 15 years
9:54right i've been investing and
9:56i'm a very data-driven investor so i
9:58mean i've got spreadsheets
10:00so long they crash my computer right
10:03i mean we've got any any number of
10:06things i could be showing
10:08this is being transferred over because
10:09one of my other spreadsheets crashed
10:11so i have to still fill in all this data
10:14but
10:14i mean it's just pages and pages and
10:17pages of of spreadsheets
10:19that i figured the way that i currently
10:22do my videos it's usually one
10:23topic per video and it's fairly slow
10:27i've got
10:27hundreds of video ideas so i thought
10:29perhaps
10:31having live streams i might actually be
10:33able to cram
10:34in a little bit more data and
10:37actually share a lot of more interesting
10:39stuff much faster
10:41right so that's the first reason um
10:44second reason would be that i've
10:46mentioned this to the vts community a
10:48lot i'm not saying this to complain so
10:50don't think that i'm complaining here
10:51but i do actually spend
10:54i do actually spend about four to five
10:57hours
10:57every single day weekends included
11:00holidays
11:02every single day just answering emails
11:04so
11:05at least half my day i typically work
11:07about 70 hours a week 10 hours a day 7
11:10days a week
11:12one of the commenters in the section
11:13there will attest to that that she
11:15uh lives with me and she knows that yeah
11:18i work about 10 hours a day
11:20every single day and i don't take any
11:22vacations ever
11:23so um one of the parts of my job
11:27is just customer service i have to
11:29answer questions these are
11:30my portfolios my strategies and
11:33questions come in
11:34repeatedly it doesn't matter what day
11:36you know what the markets are doing
11:38we get um a lot of questions
11:41so i figured that and i and i should say
11:45again i'm not complaining i understand
11:47i've always had the policy of treating
11:49everybody as if they're my only
11:50subscriber
11:51so i always answer the questions i
11:53always have patience you're not going to
11:54get one word answers when you email me
11:57i i do try to um
12:00give everybody the time as if it's the
12:02first time they've ever asked me
12:03something
12:04and obviously i've answered the same
12:06questions a million times before
12:08but i thought that with the live streams
12:11as you guys are answering questions and
12:12or asking questions i'm answering them
12:15it may actually reduce some of that
12:18burden i'm not sure we'll see how this
12:19goes
12:20but uh if i'm answering questions you
12:22know week in and week out
12:24and you're listening to the answers um
12:26it might reduce the burden
12:28so and that'll be a good thing people
12:30can actually learn from that
12:31and i'm hopeful that
12:34it's going to be good for you guys and
12:36also free up some time for me
12:38because i do have a lot of good ideas
12:40and a lot of videos to get to
12:41and strategies to introduce but emails
12:44are always first
12:45right the answering the questions is
12:47always first i will skip the daily blog
12:49i will skip the daily email
12:51i'll take two weeks off of videos if i
12:53have to
12:54my email list is always first so if i
12:57reduce the burden there
12:58i can actually do more videos for you so
13:01there's that and then there's also just
13:03the interaction so this is the part that
13:05i'm terrible with
13:06now because i just started i don't even
13:07know what i'm looking at here the
13:09comment section
13:10but i'm hoping that once i get better at
13:12this it'll feel more like a community
13:14you know we can all talk to each other
13:16you guys can talk amongst yourselves um
13:20yeah there we go so
13:23that's kind of the reason why i'm doing
13:25these live streams so i just want to
13:27double up here
13:28just just check to make sure
13:33before i actually go into something
13:34specific
13:36i'm going to go back to my screen share
13:39go back to my thinkorswim and just
13:42before i
13:43actually execute a trade here i want to
13:45make sure that you can actually see this
13:47so i'm going to minimize it again
13:50and go to the home page just waiting for
13:52somebody to just just give me a
13:54confirmation that you actually just
13:55saw that before i go on a trading rent
13:59that
14:01this doesn't seem to be updating
14:09it doesn't seem to be updating um
14:12you know what i'm just going to assume
14:13that you see it so i'm going to go to my
14:14screen share here
14:18go to my thinkorswim account
14:21and i figured one of the things that we
14:22could actually do here honestly i
14:24thought that the technical
14:26troubleshooting i thought this was going
14:27to take a long time i thought i was
14:29gonna do a full hour just not know what
14:30i'm looking at
14:31but everybody has helped me so much that
14:33we can actually maybe do
14:35a little trade here so um today
14:38if you're a member of the vts community
14:40then you will be aware that there was a
14:42new trade today
14:44so um if you're not aware of course
14:47you're
14:48free to follow for free on the youtube
14:50channel you don't have to pay me any
14:51money
14:51you can ask me questions you can
14:53interact it's totally fine
14:55the people that actually pay me money
14:56are the ones that want to see my actual
14:58portfolio and i go through those trades
15:00for people so
15:01for them everybody is aware that there
15:04was a new trade today
15:05so why don't we just go ahead and
15:07execute that
15:08right now now the the one thing i should
15:11mention
15:12for all of my official trading and many
15:14of you know this i
15:15wait until market close or maybe 10 to
15:1815 minutes before market close
15:20to ever do any trading and um
15:26sorry stop my train of thought there
15:28somebody asked somebody said something
15:30um i can try this picture in picture
15:34somebody said they can't see me and
15:37we'll see if they can see me now
15:38i don't know i'll watch the rebroadcast
15:40later again for a reminder if you're
15:42just coming in
15:42this is my first stream ever so this is
15:44all just being done on the fly
15:46but we had a new trade today so what
15:48you're seeing here this is the leverage
15:50total portfolio
15:52and this is what i'm going to be trading
15:53in this little test account for people
15:55again my actual portfolios with
15:58interactive brokers but
15:59um it's it's the worst software ever so
16:03this position right here this tlt we are
16:07today in the vb threshold strategy we
16:10are moving out of tlt
16:11and back into the sso so i'm just going
16:15to execute this
16:16and just kind of show you how easily
16:19this can be done now again i would have
16:20waited till market closed
16:22but everybody's online let's just go
16:24ahead and fire this off now
16:25so i am going to close this you can see
16:27i have 194 shares
16:30tlt is a very liquid product move that
16:33out of the way
16:33you can see the bid ask spread is a
16:35penny so typically i'll just
16:38eyeball the numbers really quick make
16:40sure it's right but i'm just going to go
16:41ahead and send that
16:43and because it's tlt it's very liquid
16:47everything we trade is very liquid we
16:49always trade indexes
16:50and and um there's always a lot of
16:53volume on these
16:54so then the next thing i need to do
16:56which
16:58unfortunately i didn't bring my phone
17:00with me
17:02so i will just take a little position in
17:06sso so now i'm going to go to my trading
17:09window ssl is trading at 94.67
17:12i'm just going to divide
17:1630 000 divided by 94
17:2067 and i'm going to buy 316 shares
17:25of sso
17:28and remember i am this is executing what
17:31we took today in the vts community
17:33moving out of tlt
17:35into sso again this is a pretty liquid
17:37product
17:38but i will always try to get the mid
17:40price
17:41so i will make sure everything's right
17:43it's about the right account value
17:45go ahead and send that and again
17:48you're probably not going to have too
17:50much trouble executing these trades
17:52quite quickly because these are really
17:55really large products especially sso
17:57if we get into things like ust for
17:59example
18:00um the next time one of those trades
18:02comes up i will go ahead and
18:04show you that but um
18:08sso is going to be fast basically
18:10everything you're looking at there is
18:11going to be really really quick
18:12so um that's it
18:16that's my day so if you were a member of
18:18the vts community
18:19you only had one trade today honestly
18:21it's a minute it's
18:22literally a minute um oh i have a little
18:26bit of buying power issue there
18:28i apparently i'll deal with that later
18:31um
18:32so that's it so let me go back to the
18:35chat here
18:38go back to my face here and see if i can
18:41practice looking at the camera rather
18:42than my computer
18:44and bear with me i'm just going to go
18:48through these
18:50these comments the problem i mean you
18:52might think that i'm fumbling around and
18:54i'm
18:54kind of an idiot here the problem is
18:55that the comments don't appear when i
18:57hit my screen share
18:58everything disappears and it doesn't
19:00show me any of the comments so i
19:02actually have to look
19:02back and try to catch up with everybody
19:05here
19:08inside so buying clothes so questions
19:11like that do you sell buy or close
19:14it's it's my plan in these live streams
19:18to open up the comment section to
19:20questions
19:22when i'm specifically ready to answer
19:24the questions so um
19:25everything that is sort of a technical
19:27issue or hey can you explain this
19:29i will definitely get to those i will
19:31try to answer everybody's questions
19:34that's the reason i'm doing this but um
19:37when i'm actually going through stuff
19:39a i won't be able to see the the
19:40comments but also
19:43i'll probably do that later on so
19:45formats might change but i'm thinking i
19:47might prepare a little bit of a show
19:48maybe 20 minutes early on
19:50teach a little bit of a concept go
19:52through a spreadsheet
19:54like we did there just go through a few
19:56quick trades
19:57and then later on sort of at the end of
19:59the live stream
20:00i could then open it up for comments and
20:03questions and i could
20:04do my best to read them out and
20:08try to answer a few things so was that
20:11the
20:11leveraged total portfolio so yeah i can
20:14answer that now
20:15um what am i what i'm doing with this
20:18again my long-term portfolio
20:20is with interactive brokers this account
20:24i can actually go to my ameritrade page
20:27this oh sorry you're just staring at me
20:31i'm gonna forget that a lot screen share
20:35picture in picture there we go
20:38um so hopefully you're looking at this
20:41correctly i'll just minimize and go back
20:43again
20:43so this is my ameritrade account this
20:45you can see
20:46this is the um this is the exact same
20:49account that you were looking at in
20:50thinkorswim
20:51right this this amount and
20:55this amount this is the same account so
20:57you will very
20:58often see me open this from here on out
21:00now what this account is
21:03if i go back just three months of course
21:05you can see that i have just recently
21:06funded this account
21:08i put 132 000 into this account
21:12because i wanted to show think or swim
21:15in my live streams i i really really
21:17don't want to do interactive brokers
21:19it's it's awful
21:20so i have just recently funded this
21:22account um
21:23so i can just go to the custom dates
21:26here
21:27i funded it on the 29th and we can go to
21:30today
21:32and so this is what it looks like um
21:35get used to seeing this i don't mind
21:37showing this remember this is just a
21:38testing account so
21:40i'm not going to be you know trying to
21:42hide account numbers and i'm not trying
21:45to
21:46trying to be sheepish with you know i
21:47can't show this and can't show that the
21:49reason i wanted to have this open
21:51it as a test account is so that i can
21:53just
21:54show stuff i mean it's a live stream i
21:56don't want to be thinking on the fly
21:58of what how do i account hide my account
22:00numbers and all that stuff
22:02so this account is just going to be our
22:03public live stream account
22:06and feel free to ask any questions
22:08anytime you have about this account
22:10but what i've decided to do because it's
22:12a um
22:13well i mean it's not a small account but
22:15it's a test account
22:16what i've decided to do is just trade
22:19one of the portfolios
22:23again i'm i'm having faith here that you
22:25everybody
22:26watching can actually see what i'm doing
22:28i'll watch the rebroadcast in case i
22:30made massive errors here but what i've
22:33decided to do with this account is trade
22:35the
22:35leveraged total portfolio almost
22:39i'll get into this volatility allocation
22:41in a second but
22:42at vts of course our leveraged total
22:45portfolio
22:47is five strategies together so it's
22:50these five
22:51balanced aggressive vb threshold defense
22:54of rotation
22:55and vts options i will be trading
22:59those five in this account
23:02so that's all that will be in this
23:03account except
23:06i'm making one switch instead of the
23:08aggressive vol
23:09instead of this aggressive ball i'm
23:11going to switch it for
23:13the tactical volatility the only reason
23:16i'm doing that
23:17is because in the options portfolio
23:20we haven't it's not new to me but it's a
23:23newer strategy called ball trend
23:26and i'm getting a ton of interest a lot
23:28of people are asking questions about it
23:30so i thought i would show people how the
23:33vol trend
23:34which is you can see is these two trades
23:36how that
23:37interacts with the vxx put options from
23:40the tactical volatility
23:42so i just thought it would be more
23:43interesting for the community to watch
23:45me trade the tactical volatility
23:47instead of the aggressive vol which is
23:49just svxy it's just long
23:51etf positions not overly exciting
23:54it's probably more interesting for
23:56people if i show this one
23:57which is our long put option in june
24:01for the tactical volatility strategy so
24:04that's the only replacement i made i
24:05will be trading
24:06these four plus vix options
24:10in its entirety and over here
24:13the fall trend strategy so this is just
24:16something that i was thinking about
24:18how am i going to show these live
24:20streams when you see the positions that
24:22i'm in that's what you're looking at
24:23it is essentially leverage total
24:26portfolio
24:27except tactical vol that's it
24:30so when you are looking at my portfolio
24:34that's what you're going to be seeing
24:36and then of course i will just scale my
24:38other account i will trade the other
24:40non-leveraged version a little bit more
24:42in the other account and a little bit
24:44less
24:45with the aggressive all and tactical
24:47volatility so that's why that trade that
24:49i just did in tlt and sso
24:52that's why that's the one that you saw
24:56so wow
25:00it's been 25 minutes it feels like three
25:02i don't know about you
25:03you probably think i'm rambling like
25:05crazy i tend to do that you'll get used
25:06to it
25:07um i tend to ramble on it feels like i
25:11just started three minutes ago
25:12so i don't know what's going on here
25:19see if there's any more quick questions
25:26i know as cal says it's weird to see me
25:29looking down
25:30um i know so what you're seeing here is
25:34what you see in all my videos but for my
25:36videos i'm standing up so it's pretty
25:38hard not to just look right at the
25:39camera
25:40right now the way i have it set up i'm
25:42sitting at my desk
25:43my my laptop is quite low the camera's
25:46up there
25:46so there's actually quite a gap between
25:48where the camera is and where my laptop
25:50is what i think i'm going to do is of
25:53course
25:54adjust this setup so i don't you know
25:56you're not looking at the top of my head
25:57while i'm doing these streams
25:59um
26:04some more lighting oh my lighting's
26:07there
26:07like more lighting in my room or more
26:09lighting on me
26:14probably on me i don't think you want to
26:17see the room this is a pretty boring
26:18room
26:19there's hardly any furniture in it so
26:22i don't think you're too interested in
26:24that but i could i could try to light
26:26myself better
26:30yeah for anybody wondering this is um
26:32i'm in vancouver right now i travel
26:34around a lot i move around a lot
26:36um if you're in the vts community you
26:38will know that
26:39um but right now i am in vancouver so uh
26:42this
26:42is called coal harbor it's
26:46actually a really nice day out there so
26:48i think after i'm done this stream i'm
26:50gonna go out for a long run
26:52i don't know if you can see it this path
26:54right here
26:55this is called stanley park and it's
26:58i mean even if you're not a runner you'd
27:01probably turn
27:02into a runner if you lived here it's
27:03just it's a beautiful run
27:06i can't wait to get out there so
27:09my right side is a little bit darker
27:12thanks for all the feedback by the way
27:14um i'll go over this more with a fine
27:16tooth comb later on after watching the
27:19the rebroadcast the reason that one of
27:22the sides of my face
27:24so this will show that how much of an
27:25amateur video maker i am
27:27i basically just watch youtube tutorials
27:29and i do what they say
27:31so recently i was watching one that
27:34basically
27:34taught me lighting and what they said
27:36was for live streams
27:38you should have one light only on one
27:40side of the room
27:41and then it gives apparently some
27:45depth to your face or whatever um
27:48yeah so that's why that there is there's
27:51actually only one light turned on right
27:53now
27:53i could easily do one over there but um
27:58yeah maybe use an external monitor
28:02and a separate webcam last maverick yeah
28:05though
28:06stuff like that i mean really helpful
28:08tips
28:09obviously i don't know what i'm doing um
28:11you might think that i do because i've
28:13been making youtube videos for a while
28:14but my videos are all
28:16pretty much exactly the same i am such a
28:18creature of habit
28:19and when i made my first video and i
28:22wasn't totally embarrassed about it
28:24i've done that exact template for
28:26basically four years
28:27i don't change anything i haven't
28:29learned anything so
28:31things like that like external monitors
28:34i can look into things like that
28:35um you know maybe it'll
28:38add some some things like you said add a
28:41second scene
28:43i'm not there yet sorry this is this is
28:46the best i got right now
28:47um hopefully someday i can get to the
28:50point where i do have that if there was
28:52a camera over there and
28:54it was you know i could switch the
28:55button and see different scenes
28:57i could actually make a show what we've
28:59got going now this is not
29:01a show it's not going to be entertaining
29:03at all so
29:04um basically i'm just testing to make
29:08sure everybody can see
29:11all the stuff that i will want to be
29:13showing that was sort of the main
29:15version today so that's why i went
29:16through the trade
29:18um i'm just going to check to see if i
29:20did that right because
29:21my brain is scrambled i'm super nervous
29:23right now
29:25yep looks all right
29:28and the market is up half a percent
29:30right now
29:33it's been pretty rough lately i don't
29:35know about the rest of you but
29:37um yeah a lot of stuff going on in the
29:40world
29:41i am just going to let you know
29:44i probably won't talk i'd like to say
29:47at all ever about politics but i will
29:50probably leave
29:51a little bit of space to talk about
29:53politics
29:54under the condition that it may affect
29:56the markets right i'm not going to talk
29:58about politics just as my
30:00opinions on you know joe biden and
30:03donald trump and
30:04and all the mess that goes on with u.s
30:07politics
30:08i'm canadian if you didn't know that um
30:10but i mean let's be honest what happens
30:12in the us affects us all we're all
30:14americans
30:14so but i won't be talking about it just
30:17as an interest sake
30:19but if it's something that will move the
30:20markets um absolutely i'm open to talk
30:23about that so
30:24if you're ever asking me questions and
30:26you know once we get these live streams
30:27going
30:28more regularly feel free to ask
30:31questions
30:32but don't be surprised if i kind of just
30:35punt on the whole answer of politics i
30:37don't want to talk about politics
30:39um unless it affects the market
30:43so what we're seeing lately um i think
30:45it does look like there's just a lot of
30:47people nervous about this market
30:49it does appear that nobody really knows
30:52which direction we're going to go
30:54nobody knows what's going to happen it's
30:56a very news driven
30:58market you know we could wake up
30:59tomorrow and
31:01something either very good could have
31:03come about and
31:04markets are up a ton something obviously
31:08some bad news could hit as well so
31:12just check the stream here what i also
31:15want to do is
31:16raise my computer so it doesn't look
31:19like i'm looking
31:20down to the right that's even worse
31:24how often you plan on doing the live
31:26streams
31:28um good question i don't know i have no
31:31idea this is all an experiment i
31:33i clicked my first ever live stream 31
31:37minutes ago
31:37so this is all a work in progress i have
31:42basically three communities right i have
31:44the vts community
31:46which is
31:49what are you watching picture in picture
31:51screen share sorry i'm talking to myself
31:53i do that a lot too ask my girlfriend
31:56she often thinks i'm
31:57having conversations with other people
31:58no it's just talking to myself
32:01um i have basically three communities so
32:04hopefully you're seeing this correctly
32:05this is the vts community that will be
32:09all of the etf rotation strategies and
32:12then
32:13vts options is a
32:16separate sort of branched off community
32:19where we are just going to be talking
32:21about option trading so if we go
32:24you know very hyper specific to options
32:27only
32:28and then the third community that i
32:30consider myself having
32:32is the youtube community it's just all
32:33of you who follow my work you like what
32:35i do
32:36but you're not ready to pay maybe it's
32:38not worth it for you maybe you're not
32:40ready maybe you
32:41you do other things with your capital
32:43you know what i do is not for everybody
32:45and you certainly don't have to pay me
32:46money to follow my work
32:47so that's why i never do any hard sell
32:50of any kind i never do any advertising
32:52i'm not trying to twist anybody's arm if
32:54you want to look at my portfolio
32:56you want to follow the trades people are
32:58you know more than welcome to do that
32:59but
33:00the the youtube community is just free
33:03so
33:03since i have three communities i'm going
33:05to have to figure out a schedule here
33:07where obviously i give priority to the
33:09vts community for answering questions
33:13but i may end up doing one public live
33:16stream
33:17and then doing my best to answer
33:19specific questions to the community
33:21or i might try to do totally separate
33:24style live streams one for vts one for
33:27vts options
33:28only option trading and then one for the
33:30youtube community
33:31where i might go over some of the videos
33:32that i upload i don't really know
33:34but um to answer the question
33:40probably to start let me commit to one
33:44per week
33:45and and we'll go from there i'm thinking
33:48weekend
33:49um i did a questionnaire recently for my
33:51community it went out to
33:52you know 3 000 people and overwhelmingly
33:56the answer was
33:57weekends sort of earlier morning or late
34:00morning
34:00so i was thinking of doing some type of
34:03you know
34:04volatility brunch where on the weekends
34:06maybe at around 10 o'clock or something
34:08i would do a live stream once a week
34:10that might be a good idea
34:13um and then if there's more interest
34:15like i don't i might be terrible at this
34:17i have no idea this might be the worst
34:19idea i've ever had
34:20so it'll all depend on the reaction from
34:23people
34:24but if there is some interest in
34:26watching me ramble about the markets
34:28then i could certainly do two a week or
34:30you know whatever my friend david
34:32lincoln i'm sure some of you in the
34:34in the comments section here knows david
34:36lincoln he
34:37i think it used to be called vix crush
34:39that might be where you found him on
34:41youtube
34:42but he does basically the short ball
34:43show and
34:45he's much more active than i am he does
34:47several of these youtube
34:49live streams he basically just um
34:52i think he does two or three a week he's
34:54really good at it um
34:56i might try to do something like he does
34:57where if something interesting is
34:59happening
34:59i might just jump on and just do a
35:01spontaneous stream
35:03um i don't know i don't know this is all
35:06new to me
35:07what do you want leave in the comments
35:09what what do you think i should do
35:12it's all up to you i am just busy on my
35:16spreadsheets every day doing my work so
35:18if it's not for answering questions
35:21and giving you the content you want
35:24that's what i'd be doing
35:25with my time
35:30tom um canadian
35:34u.s treasury treasury equivalents
35:37offered by horizon have poor bid ask
35:39spreads yeah they do
35:40they really do well all of those do um i
35:42don't know what platform you're using
35:44but often times they'll be
35:45dot t o um
35:48a lot of those funds will have lower
35:51bid ask spreads especially the canadian
35:54hedged ones
35:55so what you're going to have to decide
35:58is how worth it it is for you i'm
36:00assuming you're doing that because you
36:01don't want to have the exchange rate
36:03fees
36:04every time you do a trade you have to
36:05exchange
36:07i don't know how you're going to want to
36:08deal with that obviously i can't give
36:09out any personalized
36:10investment advice but yeah the bid ask
36:13spreads are a little bit of a problem
36:15especially if you want those canadian
36:16hedged versions
36:18they they're not that widely used so
36:22i i would say track everything that's
36:24usually my answer for these types of
36:25things
36:26track it make sure you take note of the
36:28the price that was trading when you
36:30executed and then see how close to that
36:32you can get if it's
36:33if it's really close if it's a penny or
36:35two it's not really going to matter long
36:37term
36:38if you're noticing significant slippage
36:41then you might want to consider you know
36:44doing a currency exchange in the
36:46beginning and then just trading in u.s
36:48dollars or
36:49you know again i i'm probably already
36:52getting too specific i didn't put up any
36:54disclaimers or anything
36:55again i don't want to have to do that i
36:57hope i don't have to do that i just want
36:58to talk and be me
37:00but yeah that's what i would recommend
37:02is they track everything for a few
37:03months see how it goes if you're
37:04noticing too much slippage
37:06you're just annoyed and frustrated that
37:07you feel like you're losing a little bit
37:09of
37:09money every time you do a transaction
37:12might just want to consider
37:13setting it all up in us dollars that's
37:15what i do i'm not even american but
37:17everything i do is us dollars
37:19everything all my accounts are
37:20denominated in usd
37:22it's just easier for me so i don't have
37:23to worry about if i want to trade the s
37:25p 500
37:26buy the spy if i want to trade
37:28treasuries tlt ief
37:29you know lots of choices so that's what
37:31i do
37:36larry fabian frictionless option model
37:41do you know do you know a programmer no
37:43i don't know any programmers and further
37:45than that
37:45i have zero programming skills
37:48at all i basically use computers and
37:52programs
37:53um so they work for me
37:56same with excel i'm i'm not that great
37:58with excel i have
38:0010 15 years of excel spreadsheets going
38:02back i
38:03i'm not an expert i just make it work
38:05for me so
38:06programming that's all right over my
38:09head
38:11yes i'm interested in making a billion
38:13as a partner
38:15yeah that would be nice
38:20oil futures bjorn um
38:24i don't do any futures trading and that
38:26also includes which is
38:28probably going to be some questions i
38:30don't trade any vix futures either
38:32every all trading that i do is stocks
38:36etfs
38:37and options that's it no futures no
38:39commodities no
38:41no none of that
38:44if you if you follow my work you know
38:46you might get an idea of why that is i'm
38:49i'm not a technical analysis type of guy
38:51and i do find i'm not
38:53presuming that that's what you do with
38:54your trading but i do notice that a lot
38:56of futures and commodities traders
38:58they are using sort of the traditional
39:02ta
39:02for their signals and you know if it
39:05works for you fantastic but
39:06that's not my style i'm more of the
39:08quant based i build systems and rules
39:11based strategies where
39:13i'm tracking volatility metrics and if
39:14it's in certain ranges and
39:16the momentum is changing that's what's
39:19sort of
39:20informing my trade decisions so
39:23futures to me doesn't i just don't have
39:26the data i just can't get the historical
39:28data that i would need
39:29to make a real honest effort in
39:32successfully trading futures
39:35so just not my style got to stick to
39:38what works for you
39:39not saying it can't i i know there's
39:42futures traders out there that are very
39:43successful
39:45just not for me and that includes vix
39:47futures just
39:48i mean why bother i can just trade the
39:50etfs the options
39:51good enough
39:55yep you can always email me um
39:58that could have been one of the things i
39:59could have prepared here um could have
40:01prepared a little bit of a slide
40:03um my emails volatility trading
40:05strategies at hotmail.com
40:07or at gmail.com i check both i know 100
40:10times a day
40:13no crypto trades um nope never traded
40:15crypto
40:16um
40:19am i still on the picture in picture
40:22screen share
40:24can you see my twitter account if i open
40:26this
40:28i tweeted out recently um
40:32let me see if i can find it there here
40:34here we go very recently
40:36uh this one here time stamp this tweet
40:38as of january 7th 2021
40:40i have never owned bitcoin um
40:43the reason i posted this sort of
40:45tongue-in-cheek a little bit
40:46but i'm getting pretty tired of all the
40:49people saying that
40:50you know they've been holding bitcoin
40:51for years and they're making all this
40:53money
40:54um we can see the bitcoin statistics
40:56behind the scenes there aren't actually
40:58that many who are
40:59participating in this market at least
41:01not to any major extent
41:03so um i'm certainly not going to pretend
41:05that i was some you know retroactive
41:07bitcoin holder
41:08i've never traded crypto but i do plan
41:11to so
41:11um it would be as a complete rookie you
41:14would
41:15you know you'd be well advised to take
41:17my trades with a grain of salt
41:20because as i said i've i've never done
41:22it yet
41:24but um hopefully i'm a quick study and
41:26it does look fun doesn't it i mean
41:28anything that moves that much
41:30i don't i don't know if i should get
41:32into my bitcoin politics here but
41:34i don't necessarily believe in the
41:36future so much
41:38but it is a market that is that is
41:41exciting so there's that i mean i might
41:43want to jump in just for that
41:45but uh no i've nothing crypto yet
41:52is this how you will be answering
41:54questions now
41:56zachary lorch asked um or at least the
41:59medium in which you will
42:00um i i will always prioritize my emails
42:04so like i said i that's five hours of my
42:07day
42:07you just uh you know i usually divide it
42:10up into two
42:11sections morning and night and i just
42:13get through as many as i can that's my
42:14top priority
42:16um but i am hoping that these live
42:18streams allow me to um
42:20answer some questions live if you hear
42:22the answer if you happen to catch the
42:23live stream if it works out that way
42:25then you know maybe you wouldn't email
42:27me but i will
42:28i will always answer emails so the email
42:30that i gave you it's
42:32volatility trading strategies at
42:35gmail.com or
42:36at hotmail.com either one i will always
42:39answer
42:43i those it might not be futures you
42:45don't like but commodities since their
42:46price doesn't follow the same rules as
42:48companies and indices
42:50i think that's probably a fair point um
42:53i'm always interested in things that i
42:55can quantify
42:56and anything that sort of deviates
42:59outside of the realm of what i consider
43:02statistically predictable then i'll just
43:05avoid it
43:06and that's i mean that's the basic
43:07answer why no bitcoin well
43:10i mean maybe you know more about it than
43:11me but i don't see any way to really
43:15nail down any specific metrics that are
43:18determining
43:19its price movements yet and until i do
43:22i'm not saying they don't exist
43:23i'll i'll be looking but until i
43:25actually find something that is
43:27quantifiable i can't do it
43:31i always say i mean if if i can't build
43:33it in a spreadsheet
43:34i can't trade it and and that's bitcoin
43:37to me
43:38that's gold to me um i just
43:42you know maybe you know more than i do
43:44but i just can't find any
43:46predictable ways to quantify what's
43:47going on in those markets
43:49so i've stayed away you don't have to
43:52swing at every pitch you don't have to
43:54participate in every hot thing i never
43:56owned tesla either
43:57i don't feel the slightest bit bad about
43:59that i don't regret it at all it's just
44:01not for me i didn't understand it
44:03um didn't get it so i stayed away from
44:06it can't quantify it how could i
44:07possibly predict something
44:09what is it up twelve hundred percent
44:11this year i'm
44:13if i can't build in a spreadsheet i
44:14can't trade it so
44:16that's why i've stayed away from both of
44:18those bitcoin and tesla
44:27also precious metals yeah same thing
44:28sort of the same ballpark
44:30um i often call it uh the greater fool
44:33theory
44:34now hopefully i didn't just trigger
44:37anyone i'm not calling anybody who buys
44:39those things a fool
44:40so don't mistake me for that but the
44:42greater full theory in economics is
44:44essentially that
44:47we're always looking for what's the
44:48value we want to quantify the value but
44:51the greater fool theory basically says
44:52that
44:53the value of something is just simply
44:55that somebody in the future
44:56a greater fool will pay more than you
44:58paid for it
44:59so uh under that theory
45:03bitcoin i didn't even look today what is
45:05it at 38
45:07000 ish 36 000 i know it went down to 31
45:10and then it bounced pretty strong
45:12um some store value right up down 20
45:16then up 10 anyway um greater full theory
45:20would say that
45:21we don't really have to worry about the
45:23actual quantifiable value
45:25of bitcoin we just have to make sure
45:27that we are buying it at a price
45:29that we're fairly confident somebody in
45:31the future will pay more than we did
45:33right that's the general theory so
45:36bitcoin is a greater full investment
45:38there's no question about it and i'm not
45:40saying that as a derogatory
45:42it just is so is gold they're just
45:44greater full investments
45:46it doesn't mean you can't make a fortune
45:47on them it doesn't mean
45:49you know smart people don't trade them
45:51it just it is what it is it's an
45:53economic term it's not a slang it's not
45:55a slander
45:57and just the way my brain works i'm very
45:59analytical i don't trade greater full
46:01investments
46:03i can play but it'll probably just be a
46:06couple of coins
46:0935 000 yeah i mean it was at 41
46:13and then it was at you know 31 i think i
46:16mean it crashed on the weekend
46:18and then now it's already bouncing hard
46:20so
46:22that looks like fun is there a way to
46:25replicate the vts strategy for members
46:27of the european union
46:29we are banned of trading u.s etfs like
46:31spy
46:33okay um for everybody for every
46:36non-european watching right now
46:39um take a one minute break from
46:42listening to me this is going to be
46:43boring for you but
46:44yes the european union if you're a
46:47resident
46:48of the european economic area you will
46:51be
46:51restricted unfortunately from buying a
46:54lot of the us-based etfs they call it
46:56the mifid2 regulations
46:58m-i-f-i-t id 2.
47:01and let me pull up an article here i'm
47:03going to search for this article while
47:05i'm talking because it might take me a
47:06while
47:07this is my website here again i want to
47:10double check to make sure i'm on a
47:11screen share
47:12that you're actually seeing what i'm
47:13doing and not just staring at my face
47:18picturing picture is gone picturing
47:19pictures back okay so
47:21the method 2 rules yeah it's going to be
47:24restrictive
47:25on what you can buy the financial
47:26institutions in their wisdom
47:28think that wow that was lucky look at
47:32that i
47:32nailed it this is page five top of the
47:35page
47:36on my website there's an article called
47:39european investing solutions what the
47:42government has essentially done
47:44is they require what's called a kid
47:48it's a separate form that breaks down
47:51in sort of the the right language the
47:54right regulatory environment
47:56specific like if you're in belgium they
47:58need to have the kid
47:59documents actually line up exactly with
48:02what belgium regulations have
48:04not the s p 500 with the sec in the
48:07united states so
48:08it makes it actually if if these etfs
48:12don't go above and beyond
48:13and go out of their way to create kid
48:15documents for all what 27
48:17you know member countries then they're
48:19just kind of banned off the list and you
48:21can't trade them so
48:22there are a few choices the first and
48:25most obvious choice
48:26you can read this article like i said
48:28it's on my blog
48:30page five nailed it on the first try
48:32there
48:33first option is to do options right so
48:36what you can do is you can use stock
48:38replacement where
48:39you are buying in the money options
48:42to replicate the actual position
48:45i can give you an example from my
48:46portfolio here this position in vxx
48:49right now
48:50you can see i have 20
48:54june 25 puts
48:58now this position this is an options
49:00position but it is simulating the
49:03underlying vxx
49:05so if the vxx goes down i'm going to be
49:07able to participate in that trade
49:10because i'm holding the in the money
49:11deep in the money put options
49:13so one of the things and the reason i'm
49:16bringing this up
49:17is because the mf2 regulations
49:20don't cover options trading at least not
49:22always i mean
49:23obviously i'm not a i'm not registered
49:25advisor in your area so
49:27definitely check with a lawyer but when
49:30you do the options
49:32you are typically allowed to trade those
49:35options
49:36long only right you're not going to be
49:37able to trade un
49:39undefined risk options but long only
49:42options
49:43like long put options for vxx because we
49:45are short ball traders
49:46and long call options for the other etfs
49:50if you want to participate in stock
49:52replacement with those
49:53you can consider that now there's one
49:55issue that you will encounter
49:57is that well two issues a if the etf
50:00price is really high like say it's a two
50:03or three hundred dollar etf
50:05then you're going to need a very
50:06substantial account size to be able to
50:08do this you can't do stock replacement
50:10if you're trading with
50:11you know ten or twenty thousand dollars
50:13the second thing is
50:14of course you're going to need a liquid
50:16options market so it depends on which
50:17etf you're talking about
50:19but that's one of the work arounds
50:21that's probably the easiest and best
50:23workaround
50:24the other one and again i would
50:25encourage you to read the article
50:27because i think a lot of people in the
50:28chat right now
50:29who aren't europeans are probably
50:31wondering why i'm talking about this
50:33the other option would be cfds um
50:36you know you can trade where is it right
50:39here
50:40there's a whole section on cfds um
50:43contract for difference
50:44it is a way to participate in the
50:46underlying security
50:48without actually holding the etf so you
50:51you want to
50:52you want to look into that as well but
50:54just so you know
50:56um again i'm not a registered advisor
50:59and i don't know hardly anything
51:02about european regulations so
51:06of course check with a lawyer check with
51:07an advisor but i can say that we do
51:10have probably 150
51:14um vts subscribers from the european
51:16union countries
51:17from the european economic area
51:19countries so i
51:21and i know that there are many many ways
51:23people can deal with this um
51:26it just takes a little bit of effort i
51:27mean i feel bad for you guys that the
51:29the government feels like they're doing
51:31you a favor by restricting these
51:33i think that's hurting you if anything i
51:34mean they're saying that it's
51:36information in the kid documents but
51:39how is that protecting investors i don't
51:40know limiting options
51:42is never protecting investors we want to
51:44be our own risk advisor
51:46now certainly there are times when you
51:48want to read the prospectus
51:50uv xy for example but um yeah you
51:54you want to have as many options as you
51:55can to trade and i i totally disagree
51:58with that
51:59those new rules but there you go so for
52:01all you european union people
52:03go to that article on my website
52:07right now it's sitting on page five
52:11and there's a few options in there for
52:16you
52:19cal asks have you ever run into legal
52:22issues broadcasting your trades
52:23positions and portfolios
52:28no i have not i'm
52:31i'm careful i'm careful to always
52:34communicate to people
52:35that the vts community
52:38is my portfolio this is not me trying to
52:42create
52:43a business so that i can
52:46you know hustle people into paying me
52:48money
52:49um i didn't build this so that i can
52:52um you know do things that sell well
52:55and that are easily marketable in fact i
52:58would say the opposite what
53:00i do is is sometimes difficult to
53:02understand for people if i wanted to do
53:04that
53:04i would probably simplify the whole
53:06process and just do a bunch of youtube
53:08ads and whatnot so
53:09i am very careful to communicate that
53:11all you're seeing
53:12is is what i do i'm just sharing what i
53:15do
53:16and you know
53:19if we live in a world where i'm not
53:20allowed to tell you what i do with my
53:22money
53:23then i think that's kind of a problem so
53:26i always make sure i let people know i'm
53:28not a registered advisor
53:29i have all the canadian certifications
53:31to be a portfolio manager i did that
53:33many years ago but um i chose not to
53:36register i just want to do my own thing
53:38trade my own portfolio
53:39and share those trades with people so
53:41there will be disclaimers
53:43let me just fire one off here
53:57yeah there you go it's uh there's
53:58disclaimers um
54:02no no issues so far
54:05i'm just giving i'm just telling people
54:07what i do like i said i i don't mind
54:09showing this account
54:10now this is not my long-term portfolio
54:12but my portfolio
54:14is similar to this very similar to what
54:16you're going to see in these live
54:17streams in fact i can show you that
54:20oh sorry you're looking at my face still
54:22how many times am i gonna do that
54:24um okay so i pull up my
54:28spreadsheet here which i hope you can
54:30look at
54:32this is my portfolio and so i i don't
54:34see any harm in sharing what i
54:36personally do
54:37i think that if people find value in
54:39what i'm doing then that's great but you
54:41have to understand that
54:43um you know as they say i'm a chef that
54:45eats his own cooking
54:46this is what i do my portfolio looks
54:50exactly like this
54:52so how is as long as i tell people that
54:56i'm not a registered advisor and to
54:58obviously consult a professional anytime
55:00you're going to be taking trades
55:02i don't see anything wrong with sharing
55:03what i do
55:10oh my chat just seemed to jump a lot so
55:13i probably missed a whole bunch of these
55:17what strategy are you selling vxx puts
55:21um that's fall trend i'm going to get
55:23into it more a lot lately
55:28interesting that it ties in with the
55:29previous question of
55:31do i get into trouble sharing my trades
55:35um i can just give you a little bit of a
55:38teaser here
55:40but i'm gonna flush this out with full
55:42articles and videos let me just check to
55:44make sure i'm on a picture and picture
55:46you're actually seeing something
55:52what are you looking at
55:55yeah i'm going to flush this out in much
55:57more detail with disclaimers
55:59and warnings and caveats but this vault
56:03trend strategy that you
56:04see here there's just um you know
56:06there's 115 or something contracts there
56:09um i trade the voltron strategy
56:13as a standalone as well so
56:17if i open up my portfolio
56:20this essentially and i hope you can see
56:22this if you can't just bear with me i
56:24will watch the rebroadcast and clean
56:26some of this stuff up
56:28but this right here is the
56:31leveraged total portfolio and the
56:33non-leveraged total portfolio
56:35and i use both of them these two
56:38strategies here
56:39val wheel and vix options are
56:43well first of all vix options is far too
56:45complicated to share with the community
56:47so unfortunately i can just never share
56:49that it's
56:5030 to 40 trades a month it's oftentimes
56:53intraday trading is important with that
56:55it's just not
56:56feasible but the vault trend it's called
56:58vol wheel here because i've been trading
57:00this for
57:00something like eight years in my own
57:02account i changed the name to vol trend
57:05and i'm going to adapt it a little bit
57:08for the vts community
57:09and so i give it a full 10 allocation
57:12within my portfolio
57:14and remember that's both portfolios
57:16right so what you're seeing here
57:18this is um
57:22this is just my testing account so this
57:24is why i have to
57:26i have to be very careful to to have
57:28disclaimers
57:29and and all that stuff caveats before i
57:33just go start showing people this stuff
57:35but i mean this trade where's my
57:38calculator
57:40i mean 115 times
57:44if i get assigned those positions it's
57:47on average of about 610
57:52100 i mean this is uh it's not a small
57:55position size 185
57:59000 of you know notional value on those
58:03contracts if i get assigned the only
58:05reason i'm trading it here
58:07is because i thought people would be
58:09interested to see it in the live streams
58:11so this is not scaled to the rest of the
58:14positions don't misunderstand that
58:17this ball trend which we have one in the
58:20vix options portfolio right now
58:22it's not this trade it's this it's a
58:24similar trade
58:25but this one is actually just what i do
58:27myself which is
58:29substantially larger allocation um it's
58:32supposed to be scaled to a much larger
58:34account size so what you see here
58:36don't be confused if you have 152 000 in
58:39your account
58:40don't be going out and buying 115
58:43contracts of this
58:45that or selling these are naked puts
58:48don't be doing that that does not scale
58:50correctly you have to remember that this
58:53is just a testing account this is just
58:55let me be perfectly clear this account
58:59was funded three months ago right 132
59:03the only reason i did that amount and
59:04not less was i wanted to
59:07leave a little bit of room if i want to
59:08do portfolio margin
59:10typically they require about 125 000 so
59:13i thought you know i'll just put in a
59:14little bit extra
59:15and we'll just see how it goes but this
59:18account
59:20as i said before i'm trading the
59:22leverage total portfolio
59:25except for that position
59:28you might see some much much larger
59:32positions in that account when it comes
59:34to vxx put options
59:36but um so i'm going to be demonstrating
59:39how i use that strategy it's it's
59:42one of my best and one of my favorite
59:44one of the most fun
59:45and one of the most active so it it
59:47might check a lot of boxes for some of
59:49the vts
59:49followers but um yes
59:52as far as scaling goes it's it's going
59:56to be much less than that so
59:58don't don't let that contract size fool
1:00:00you
1:00:03does it have a track record too um what
1:00:06i mean everything i have has a track
1:00:08record
1:00:08um like i said i'm just trading my own
1:00:10portfolio here
1:00:11um as far as showing track records
1:00:15i don't mind showing stuff but i don't i
1:00:17mean i've been doing this for
1:00:1910 years i don't go out of my way to
1:00:21sort of
1:00:22get into that um you know
1:00:25oh if you're so good prove it go get it
1:00:27audited send me the audited results
1:00:31i'll leave that for the you know the
1:00:33online gurus out there
1:00:36all those you know those people that are
1:00:38making
1:00:39outlandish claims and absurd performance
1:00:41numbers
1:00:42i'll leave that for those guys i'm not
1:00:44one of those guys you
1:00:45for me i don't i don't go out of my way
1:00:48i i've been posting the results on the
1:00:50website
1:00:51every single month like clockwork for
1:00:55nine years now every single month i post
1:00:58these numbers you can get everything you
1:01:00need on the website
1:01:01for every strategy that we have it's
1:01:04always
1:01:05on the website now
1:01:08you know i don't say this next part to
1:01:11you know
1:01:11brag or anything it's not a flex but the
1:01:14vts community is very large
1:01:17it might it might surprise some people
1:01:19how many how many paying subscribers
1:01:21there are
1:01:21and i don't think they'd appreciate too
1:01:25much
1:01:25if i was posting results literally every
1:01:28month for nine years
1:01:29and posting them wrong i don't i think
1:01:32that would be a
1:01:33catastrophic financial mistake on my
1:01:35part
1:01:36if i actually started doing that if i
1:01:39wanted to say hey
1:01:40you know last month let me find
1:01:43something that's not working that well
1:01:45like um you know we did some of these
1:01:48strategies did really well last year but
1:01:49the one that actually i mean to be
1:01:52honest just sucked
1:01:53was this one the v the tactical
1:01:55volatility
1:01:57i think it only it made you know 5.85
1:02:01or something let me see if i'm showing
1:02:03the right screen
1:02:07um yeah it made a small percent i don't
1:02:09want to show that i mean ideally i want
1:02:11to make 20 to 30
1:02:12with that strategy i don't want to show
1:02:14it but i have to because
1:02:15i like i said i've got i've got nine
1:02:18years of
1:02:20of a substantial amount of eyeballs
1:02:23checking those numbers every single
1:02:24month i mean
1:02:25what a terrible financial mistake that
1:02:27would be if i started posting them wrong
1:02:29so
1:02:30no i don't i don't like i'm not going to
1:02:32go to kpmg and audit
1:02:34stuff and send it to people and post it
1:02:36on twitter
1:02:37and make youtube ads talking about oh
1:02:40you know i don't do that
1:02:42i consider that sort of the online guru
1:02:45community
1:02:46which is growing fast be careful out
1:02:48there i mean 99
1:02:50of those claims are absolutely false um
1:02:53hopefully you guys know that
1:02:56generally speaking it's a bad idea to
1:02:58broadcast in front of windows like this
1:03:00yes
1:03:00absolutely um it's been a real
1:03:03video challenge getting this camera to
1:03:06to show up
1:03:07um but
1:03:11it looks good right so i mean there's a
1:03:14there's a blank wall over there if you
1:03:16if you watch some of my older videos
1:03:18maybe two three months ago when i'm in
1:03:20taiwan i also spend a lot of my time in
1:03:22taiwan
1:03:23um i i'm right in the heart of the city
1:03:25in taiwan i live right by taipei city
1:03:27hall so
1:03:28uh there's no views there's no ocean
1:03:30there's no nothing so i
1:03:31use a blank wall if when i go home maybe
1:03:34a month from now or so
1:03:35um i'll be right back to the blank wall
1:03:37i'll set up some type of
1:03:39you know youtube maybe some bookshelves
1:03:41to try to look smarter than i am
1:03:43i'll figure something out and it won't
1:03:46be quite as distracting with the window
1:03:48but you have to admit you know it's
1:03:50it's pretty nice and when i'm doing my
1:03:53work when i'm doing my spreadsheeting
1:03:55you know i
1:03:55get a glass of wine and plate of olives
1:03:58or something
1:03:59i turned this desk around so i'm staring
1:04:02that way
1:04:02and then um you know
1:04:06i spread my time in in different
1:04:08countries throughout the world
1:04:10and i have found i'm very efficient here
1:04:13i'm more efficient here
1:04:14than i am in my office in in other
1:04:17places
1:04:18and maybe just the reason like it just
1:04:21it's motivation plus i work out more i
1:04:23mean like i said i'm going running as
1:04:25soon as this live stream is over
1:04:26it's a beautiful day out there um it's
1:04:29just
1:04:30stanley parks calling my name
1:04:34favorite countries places to live
1:04:37well i mean it's awfully hard to beat
1:04:40vancouver
1:04:43i've lived in a lot of places so as as i
1:04:46said earlier i used to be a professional
1:04:47golfer i mean many many years ago
1:04:49i i played pro golf from 99 to 2005
1:04:53and so uh not only did i play across
1:04:55canada because i'm canadian
1:04:57i played in the us i lived in the u.s
1:04:58for eight years
1:05:00many different cities i played in asia
1:05:02you know so i played in
1:05:03taiwan you know philippines thailand
1:05:06indonesia
1:05:09i've been to japan korea i've been to a
1:05:12lot of places
1:05:13favorite places number one vancouver
1:05:18number two new york loved my time in new
1:05:21york
1:05:22um now granted that was
1:05:2715 years ago not to get political here
1:05:30but
1:05:31i've heard new york isn't quite what it
1:05:34used to be so
1:05:35take that one with a grain of salt i
1:05:37still do look at real estate though i
1:05:39mean
1:05:39the the prices in new york real estate
1:05:43they've come down a lot um it is a
1:05:46little bit tempting
1:05:47to you know maybe try to get something
1:05:50maybe
1:05:51maybe new york is is maybe this is just
1:05:53a short little window
1:05:54i don't know maybe it maybe it bounces
1:05:56back strong i mean could you imagine
1:05:58scooping up something that
1:05:59you know five years ago was out of your
1:06:01budget and now you can actually get a
1:06:03place in new york that would be amazing
1:06:05not going to do that but i look i look
1:06:08at real estate
1:06:08i love new york in the u.s
1:06:12as well again recent political events i
1:06:15can't speak on but
1:06:16i lived for two years in san francisco
1:06:18and absolutely loved it
1:06:20um one of my favorite places in the
1:06:22world
1:06:24so don't know what it's like now maybe
1:06:26i'll go back there soon but
1:06:28that was good and of course taiwan i
1:06:30mean people think wow taiwan what are
1:06:31you doing there
1:06:32um it's it's so much better than people
1:06:36would imagine it's a really really great
1:06:38place to live um
1:06:40ultra convenient weather's great people
1:06:42are friendly
1:06:45it's awesome i love taiwan and if you
1:06:46really really live there and work there
1:06:48then you've got the benefits of um you
1:06:51know you know a
1:06:52a city that's super convenient you've
1:06:54got a phenomenal health care you've got
1:06:57lots of programs that are great for
1:06:58families
1:07:00really good country um my plans for this
1:07:03year
1:07:04are well i was supposed to do it last
1:07:07year but because of the
1:07:09i don't know if i'm allowed to say that
1:07:10word on the internet yet but uh the
1:07:12rhona the bug
1:07:14um because of the bug i was supposed to
1:07:17be in europe for eight months i was
1:07:18going to go to
1:07:19um two weeks in different cities just
1:07:23for
1:07:23the entire summer and i had it all
1:07:25mapped out i had it all planned
1:07:28and that of course got trashed so i
1:07:30might do that this year you might see
1:07:31if i do these live streams and they
1:07:33become official
1:07:35i don't know i'm terrible at this i'm
1:07:36rambling um but if they do become
1:07:38official
1:07:39then you might see that you might see me
1:07:42doing live streams throughout europe
1:07:43um dubai i also want to go to dubai i
1:07:46might actually do that in a couple
1:07:47months i might go to dubai first and
1:07:49then to europe after that but
1:07:50we will see why do so many furus live in
1:07:54thailand
1:07:55is it a tax thing
1:07:59uh weather number one
1:08:02number two thailand has a phenomenal
1:08:07expat community
1:08:08so that's one of the reasons and number
1:08:11three
1:08:12it is a tax reason so a lot of people
1:08:14these days are digital nomads they have
1:08:17um
1:08:18you know they have online businesses
1:08:20where they don't require to live in a
1:08:21certain country
1:08:23so a lot of digital nomads go to places
1:08:25like thailand because they're very
1:08:26friendly to digital nomads they allow
1:08:28you to get visas very easily and quickly
1:08:31they allow you to apply for residency
1:08:33very easily
1:08:35getting citizenship i i still think it's
1:08:37a process
1:08:38five seven years but becoming a legal
1:08:41resident in thailand as a digital nomad
1:08:43is very easy um and becoming easier so
1:08:46i think it's a combination of that it's
1:08:48a it's a digital nomad hotspot
1:08:50phenomenal weather obviously great
1:08:52beaches golf courses
1:08:54and a lot of expats there so if you're
1:08:56the type of person like i speak chinese
1:08:58so when i live in taiwan it's
1:09:00i don't hang out with foreigners any
1:09:02more than i hang out with
1:09:03you know taiwanese people but if you're
1:09:05the type of person that would be
1:09:06intimidated by asia but you want to live
1:09:08in asia
1:09:09then thailand seems to be where people
1:09:11go because the
1:09:12you could easily go to thailand and
1:09:14never speak a word of thai
1:09:16and and function just fine whereas in
1:09:19taiwan
1:09:20you know you can do it i have friends
1:09:21that do it but i wouldn't recommend it
1:09:23you're going to feel like you're on the
1:09:25outskirts of society
1:09:26so um thailand's top of the list dubai
1:09:30as well dubai is becoming a real digital
1:09:32nomad hotspot
1:09:38how do i manage to send the emails every
1:09:40day while traveling and living in
1:09:42different countries time zones
1:09:46well that just the broad answer there is
1:09:48i am uh
1:09:50i love traveling the world it's the one
1:09:53thing that
1:09:54i don't know if it's passed down from my
1:09:56golf career because of course i
1:09:58i traveled i was in a different city
1:10:00every week i lived out of a suitcase for
1:10:02eight years um totally fine with that
1:10:04loved it a lot of people didn't a lot of
1:10:06people thought
1:10:07you know my golfing friends back then
1:10:09they thought the hardest part of being a
1:10:11pro golfer was the travel
1:10:12i thought it was the best part it was
1:10:14the perk of the job so when i retired in
1:10:162005
1:10:17it just it's just part of my life so as
1:10:20far as the general how do i do it
1:10:22easily i don't i mean i'm i might be
1:10:24going to panama in a few weeks from now
1:10:26i have
1:10:26i want to start another business over
1:10:28there and
1:10:30if you're in the vts community if i
1:10:32didn't say it you wouldn't even know
1:10:34i'm just gonna you know calculate the
1:10:36time zone set the alarm at the right
1:10:38time
1:10:39it's all good i mean what does it matter
1:10:41right i don't care if i'm sending the
1:10:42email at
1:10:43three in the afternoon if i'm in
1:10:45portugal or if it's
1:10:46you know right now i'm in vancouver so
1:10:48it's real early i get up at 4 30 here in
1:10:50vancouver
1:10:51but you know maybe if i'm in a different
1:10:53place it means that i flip it like in
1:10:55taiwan the markets don't open until 9 30
1:10:58at night
1:10:59right so i don't even start my day until
1:11:02i don't even start the email until 11 at
1:11:04night and then by the time i send it
1:11:06it's midnight
1:11:07and then i have to wait for the markets
1:11:08to close to do all my
1:11:10personal trading because i always trade
1:11:12end of day which is four o'clock in the
1:11:14morning
1:11:14so in taiwan i am a night owl i'm up you
1:11:17know from
1:11:19whatever it is until four in the morning
1:11:21and then i sleep till about 10 or 11 in
1:11:23the morning
1:11:23and then i get up and do my day when i'm
1:11:25here in vancouver
1:11:27i went to bed at 7 30 last night my
1:11:29girlfriend was laughing at me i went to
1:11:31bed at 7
1:11:3230 in the evening because i had to get
1:11:33up at 3 30 this morning
1:11:35because i had stuff to do so i just flip
1:11:38it
1:11:38who cares i don't care where i am i love
1:11:40it i i can adapt in
1:11:43an hour i can show up to a new place a
1:11:45new country
1:11:47unpack you know one set of clothes and
1:11:49i'm good to go
1:11:52so
1:11:54would your strategies dry up as more and
1:11:56more people do them
1:11:58i get this question a lot eric thank you
1:12:00for the question
1:12:01um would they dry up so the thing you
1:12:04have to understand about
1:12:05my strategies that's a very valid
1:12:08question and i'm going to try to answer
1:12:09this without
1:12:10trashing other services and without
1:12:13you know bragging about my own i
1:12:17if you get to know me you know i don't
1:12:18do that um
1:12:20but sometimes you just have to answer
1:12:21the question so that's a very legitimate
1:12:24concern
1:12:25and so what you want to be looking for
1:12:27is
1:12:28people who manage services with
1:12:30strategies
1:12:31that trade high volume stuff so if you
1:12:33look at
1:12:36was i i was talking the whole time on
1:12:39the big screen you were just staring
1:12:40right at my face there hopefully that
1:12:42wasn't annoying
1:12:42i was supposed to be doing a picture in
1:12:44picture but i am a
1:12:47rank amateur at this live stream stuff
1:12:49so
1:12:50hopefully you can see this but the
1:12:51positions in the leveraged total
1:12:53portfolio
1:12:54i mean these are massive etfs mvv's not
1:12:57huge but it's you know
1:12:59mega millions the qld is very big spy
1:13:02sso tlt and vxx that's all we got going
1:13:05right now
1:13:06and so all of my strategies are trading
1:13:08things that
1:13:10i mean it would take an enormous
1:13:14oh i didn't mean to click that um it
1:13:17would take an enormous amount of volume
1:13:18to start actually affecting what we do
1:13:20and that even translates over into the
1:13:22vts or the the vix options
1:13:24community that i have that is separately
1:13:26just options
1:13:28even in that community i trade nothing
1:13:30but the most
1:13:31liquid most accessible products or
1:13:35you know stocks or etfs basically and
1:13:37this is why i said i want to dance
1:13:39around this a little bit because i don't
1:13:40want to insult too many people but
1:13:42what you will notice is that there's a
1:13:43lot of options communities out there
1:13:46that are advertising phenomenal gains
1:13:49right whether they're trying to do it
1:13:53intentionally or
1:13:54inadvertently doing it what's end up
1:13:56happening is
1:13:57they're trading small float companies
1:13:59with illiquid options markets
1:14:02so they take the trade then they get
1:14:04their phone out and they tweet it out to
1:14:05the community
1:14:06and then a whole bunch of people take
1:14:08the same trade and the person who sent
1:14:10out the signal
1:14:12has the benefit of being first in line
1:14:14so
1:14:16small float stock first in line if
1:14:18you've got a decent following on twitter
1:14:20you're going to be able to produce a
1:14:22pretty impressive looking track record
1:14:24but then what ends up happening is the
1:14:26subscribers themselves
1:14:28they're not going to be able to
1:14:28duplicate any of those trades some of
1:14:30you probably know what i'm talking about
1:14:31you've
1:14:32you've been a member of a service and
1:14:33you're in there and you're looking at
1:14:35them report the results on their website
1:14:37and you're they're talking about it on
1:14:38twitter and
1:14:39you know high fives all around except
1:14:41for the subscribers
1:14:42right they're not getting the return so
1:14:45that's what ends up happening with a lot
1:14:47of these services so for me
1:14:49if you if you are going to be following
1:14:50the live streams i'm going to be showing
1:14:52you every single trade
1:14:54you'll see it in the account you're
1:14:55never going to look into my account
1:14:57you're going to see some small float
1:14:58stock
1:14:59that's not going to happen i don't do
1:15:01that plus i'm the last person to take
1:15:03all of the trades
1:15:04right i send them out at about 11 30 in
1:15:07the morning
1:15:08eastern time and i don't take any of the
1:15:10trades in my own account until
1:15:12end of day so you know four o'clock or
1:15:14350 or something around there
1:15:16um i'm last in line i don't do any of
1:15:18the front running i don't do any of the
1:15:19you know hey let's buy this super small
1:15:21float stock that's
1:15:22a three dollar stock with 17 contracts
1:15:26in the options market
1:15:27let's you know let's get the whole
1:15:29community pouring into that one
1:15:30i don't do any of that so that's what
1:15:32you want to be on the lookout for
1:15:33essentially
1:15:35if you're talking about massive volume
1:15:36stocks and etfs
1:15:38don't even worry about it i don't i
1:15:41don't anticipate you're trading on 50 or
1:15:44100 million dollars of capital if you
1:15:46are
1:15:47which it's always possible but
1:15:50um no you're not gonna
1:15:53nothing at vts is gonna size out i mean
1:15:56wouldn't that be a good problem to have
1:15:57if i
1:15:58if i eventually got to the point where i
1:16:00had to send out an email to the
1:16:01community and say look we are
1:16:04we're so big now that we are we're
1:16:06sizing out the tlt here we're not
1:16:08getting efficient fill prices anymore
1:16:10wouldn't that be something um we are
1:16:1417 lifetimes away from achieving that
1:16:17goal so
1:16:18don't worry about that
1:16:23esteban says i would like to meet up
1:16:25with other members of the vts
1:16:27around my area i assume
1:16:32if they volunteer their information
1:16:35absolutely
1:16:36i mean i i want to make this a community
1:16:38where people can interact with each
1:16:39other
1:16:40but what i have to be careful of is i
1:16:42will never share any personal
1:16:43information
1:16:44of anybody in the community so i'm not
1:16:47going to tell you where
1:16:48any of these people live or what they do
1:16:50for a living or what their
1:16:52what their trading accounts are like i
1:16:53obviously i'm not going to do that but
1:16:55if somebody in the comment section says
1:16:57hey it's you know
1:16:58dave from dubai you want to get together
1:17:00for a coffee and talk
1:17:02you know great you guys can meet up um
1:17:05but no i won't be
1:17:06well i won't say that i mean i i will be
1:17:08traveling a lot in the future
1:17:10i might do some in-person meetups it's
1:17:13actually interesting just
1:17:15just down there um just you know 20
1:17:18seconds away from my house
1:17:19is where i go to the coffee shop to do a
1:17:21lot of my work
1:17:22and i had three guys there about a month
1:17:24ago recognize me
1:17:26um from the vts community one of them is
1:17:29from the
1:17:30he follows the youtube channel actually
1:17:32recognized me
1:17:33um that doesn't happen very often
1:17:34probably you know five six times a year
1:17:37somebody will recognize me
1:17:38uh so that was pretty cool and then we
1:17:40set up a time and the next saturday
1:17:42we went back to the same coffee shop and
1:17:45there was
1:17:46four of them they invited you know a
1:17:47couple of their friends
1:17:49and we talked for a few hours it was
1:17:51awesome um
1:17:52i'm totally down with that if if people
1:17:54are in my city
1:17:55like i said i'm in vancouver there's a
1:17:57coffee shop right there
1:17:59you you want to grab a coffee i'm i'm a
1:18:02real person running a real business i'm
1:18:03not some online avatar so
1:18:05if you want to meet up and you know
1:18:07where i am and i live close to you
1:18:10sure email me
1:18:14and other people the same if they if
1:18:15they want to volunteer
1:18:17sure that'd be good
1:18:21isaac why not just have a facebook group
1:18:24for paying
1:18:25members
1:18:29so i'm interpreting that a couple of
1:18:32different ways
1:18:33do you mean where i can do private live
1:18:37streams for just
1:18:38people who are actually paying money for
1:18:40my services so you guys can sort of be
1:18:42prioritized if that's what you mean
1:18:46then i am definitely going to find a way
1:18:48to do
1:18:50separate live streams for just the vts
1:18:53community i think that's super important
1:18:54like i said customer service is number
1:18:56one it takes priority over all my videos
1:18:58all my daily emails
1:19:00answering questions from subscribers is
1:19:03the number one thing that i do i
1:19:05consider that my
1:19:06prime objective but if you mean just
1:19:09starting a facebook group of my own and
1:19:11sort of just managing a forum or a chat
1:19:13forum
1:19:15i don't have the bandwidth for that um
1:19:17i'm super busy
1:19:18i i already work 10 hours a day and i
1:19:21haven't taken a day off
1:19:22in a decade i mean i'm not exaggerating
1:19:24i work
1:19:25every single vacation every holiday if
1:19:28i'm in thailand
1:19:28on the beaches i work for 10 hours and
1:19:31then i go golfing or
1:19:33do whatever i do um
1:19:36don't have the bandwidth to manage a
1:19:37community but i will say um if you want
1:19:40a really good facebook community i'm a
1:19:41member of one i mentioned david lincoln
1:19:43earlier he does the short ball show here
1:19:45on youtube
1:19:46um you can you can email or you can uh
1:19:50search david lincoln and maybe add
1:19:53uh vix crush in the youtube bar and
1:19:56you'll find him
1:19:57and he manages a facebook group i think
1:20:00there's about 3 000 members and it's a
1:20:01volatility specific group
1:20:04so join that um
1:20:07engage with that there are people there
1:20:09that will um
1:20:10they're knowledgeable they'll answer
1:20:11your questions david david lincoln has
1:20:14been
1:20:14guy's been trading for 25 years 30 years
1:20:18he was on the floor you know he's a he
1:20:19was a market maker
1:20:21he can answer your questions i would
1:20:23join that i'm in that community
1:20:25so if you ask a question there maybe
1:20:28maybe if somebody else doesn't get to it
1:20:29maybe i'll answer your question there
1:20:31but as far as a private community for
1:20:34live streams yes
1:20:35i will try to figure out a way to make
1:20:37that happen so
1:20:38you know the um
1:20:41you know how i don't like to share
1:20:43numbers but the number of people in vts
1:20:45will be able to go privately and see
1:20:47that
1:20:50nick oh first brian discord don't know
1:20:54anything about it
1:20:54heard about it of course it's where
1:20:56people can chat and engage i've just
1:20:58never set one up um
1:21:01i i can't tell you how nervous i was to
1:21:03do this live stream
1:21:04so let's let's slow down a little bit on
1:21:08the on the other ideas i
1:21:10i'm still feeling the butterflies from
1:21:12just doing this so um
1:21:14before i go adding something else
1:21:18seems like another level of management
1:21:20of the community you'd have to have
1:21:22moderators i'm gonna get people in there
1:21:24that are just there to
1:21:25you know make dumb youtube comments i
1:21:27mean social media you know how that goes
1:21:30um i'll think about it discord's you
1:21:33know
1:21:33on the list nick asks you could assign
1:21:36or says you could assign
1:21:37mods to manage the community instead of
1:21:39doing it yourself i could do that but
1:21:41one of the things that i always make
1:21:42sure is that i dedicate
1:21:44a hundred percent of me to anybody who's
1:21:47asking
1:21:48anything about what i do right it has to
1:21:50be me
1:21:51so a lot of people have asked me when i
1:21:53talk about how many hours i work and how
1:21:55hard i work at my business well why
1:21:57don't you just hire a bunch of people
1:21:58um the reason is it has to be me it has
1:22:01to be all me
1:22:02so i i could hire mods to you know kick
1:22:06out the people who are making trouble
1:22:08and making
1:22:08insulting comments to other people if
1:22:10it's on a discord
1:22:12but as far as answering the questions
1:22:14gotta be me
1:22:19eric grosser asks how much of your
1:22:22strategy is selling premium
1:22:24okay well i can go through that let me
1:22:25go at a screen share here
1:22:30oh in the comment section this again if
1:22:32you're new
1:22:33if you're just stumbling in here um this
1:22:36is my first ever live stream
1:22:37so obviously bear with me and if i do
1:22:39anything wrong just start screaming it
1:22:41in the comments and i'll
1:22:42i'll get the point so if you can't see
1:22:44this let me know
1:22:45but we can just go through the
1:22:46strategies
1:22:48and i'm just i'm going to go to the
1:22:49regular unleveraged total portfolio i
1:22:52launched this in january 2012. so it's
1:22:54been going a very long time
1:22:56and these are the strategies the only
1:22:58strategy here that i would consider
1:23:01anything related to selling premium
1:23:04might be the tactical volatility because
1:23:06this is a short ball strategy now how we
1:23:08execute the trade
1:23:10is with long vxx put options
1:23:14which is let me just minimize
1:23:17maximize you can see here this trade
1:23:19here
1:23:20is the tactical volatility strategy we
1:23:22currently have open
1:23:23it is long put options but remember that
1:23:26is a short ball position
1:23:28so that strategy could be considered
1:23:30selling premium
1:23:31and then anything to do with vts options
1:23:34i'd say probably 50
1:23:3650 to 75 of this
1:23:39is selling premium and since it's a 20
1:23:42allocation of the whole portfolio
1:23:44you know you're looking at maybe i don't
1:23:47know
1:23:4715 of this plus if you want to consider
1:23:50this
1:23:51so maybe 40 ish would be considered some
1:23:55version
1:23:55of just you know the the short ball
1:23:58shortfall premium collection type trade
1:24:01and then the rest is more of the trend
1:24:04following variety
1:24:05where we are just um you know buying
1:24:08long etfs
1:24:10tactical rotation being in stocks when
1:24:12it's most advantageous
1:24:14moving to bonds moving to gold when we
1:24:16have to be in safety
1:24:18probably i don't know 60 40 70 30.
1:24:27again about the discord um esteban says
1:24:30i think the point is a place where
1:24:31people
1:24:31from the vts can join and interact and
1:24:33maybe you could get some self-service
1:24:35and would reduce the load on you yeah
1:24:37this this live stream um i have to be
1:24:39honest one of the reasons i'm doing it
1:24:41is a little bit selfish it is somewhat
1:24:45hoping that i can reduce the email load
1:24:47not that i don't mind doing it i put a
1:24:49smile on my face every morning and i
1:24:51answer five hours of emails every day
1:24:54and i give full answers and even though
1:24:56i've answered it a million
1:24:58times before there's no way you could
1:25:00ask me anything that i haven't answered
1:25:01before
1:25:02i still do it but i am hoping that this
1:25:05you know this live stream can
1:25:06alleviate a little bit of that
1:25:10nick you're doing great uh thank you so
1:25:13much for that
1:25:14i am doing awful um you're too kind
1:25:17um i'm a i'm a pretty introverted person
1:25:21and well i'm not that's not true i would
1:25:23call myself an omnivert
1:25:25i i if it's the right situation
1:25:28if i'm out with friends like when people
1:25:30meet me they think i'm a normal
1:25:31human being um social and whatnot but
1:25:36a vast majority of my life is is by
1:25:38myself uh
1:25:40just just me with my spreadsheets um
1:25:43making videos i honestly like my
1:25:46girlfriend didn't come back with me to
1:25:47vancouver this time because of the whole
1:25:49um bug or the rona um
1:25:52i've been alone here for two months i
1:25:56i've probably spoken to five people um
1:25:59and i'm totally fine with it
1:26:00but if somebody invited me out then you
1:26:02know i'm an omniverse so i could go out
1:26:04and i could act like a normal person but
1:26:06um no i'm terrible at this kind of thing
1:26:09i've been dreading live for years so
1:26:11thank you nick you're you're far too
1:26:13kind i'm gonna watch the rebroadcast
1:26:15i'm sure it's cringe but thank you
1:26:20have you considered selling covered
1:26:22calls on an etf
1:26:24on the etfs you hold um
1:26:27super common question the old um
1:26:30covered call thing uh the problem with
1:26:32covered calls the basic philosophical
1:26:34problem that we
1:26:36you know quant style people have with
1:26:38covered calls
1:26:39if you're concerned about your risk
1:26:41reward ratio
1:26:43you've got to think about what you're
1:26:44essentially doing with a covered call
1:26:45you're
1:26:46you're not really reducing any risk but
1:26:49you're just sort of
1:26:50capping your your gains and since
1:26:52everything i do is trend following or
1:26:54most of what i do is trend following you
1:26:56wouldn't want to put yourself in a
1:26:58situation where you're
1:26:59capping your gains just so that you can
1:27:01collect a few extra pennies i mean
1:27:03remember when we are in a trend
1:27:05volatility is going to be fairly low the
1:27:07vega on those options are going to be a
1:27:09little bit low
1:27:10and you're not really going to get the
1:27:12full payout that you want
1:27:14so the only times that i'm really
1:27:15selling against positions that i hold
1:27:19is if it's if it's gonna pay me like for
1:27:22example
1:27:23um here we go somebody asked about this
1:27:27earlier what are these positions right
1:27:29this is
1:27:29again i have to stress caveats warnings
1:27:32this is not my trading account
1:27:34don't mimic this volume in your account
1:27:37like i like i showed this is
1:27:39this is over you know 150 000 of just
1:27:42naked puts on the vxx
1:27:44that is scaling to my portfolio not this
1:27:47account
1:27:48so again full warnings caveats
1:27:52don't follow this but this position here
1:27:56is basically a position that i am
1:27:58trading
1:27:58against my broad portfolio because i am
1:28:01very long right now
1:28:03i'm i'm along the market doesn't mean
1:28:06i'm bullish personally it just means my
1:28:07strategies are along the market
1:28:09we are in stocks and basically across
1:28:12the board in our strategies and we are
1:28:14short ball
1:28:15so no i would not want to sell covered
1:28:18calls right now
1:28:19against all of these positions but one
1:28:21thing i have done
1:28:22is i have sold you know 185 000
1:28:26of notional value of short vxxx puts
1:28:30and these are very short dated contracts
1:28:32so i can just rinse repeat over and over
1:28:34again
1:28:35and there's literally no danger here
1:28:37because my overall portfolio
1:28:39is extremely long the market and
1:28:41leveraged long
1:28:43so if this position ever gets into any
1:28:46trouble
1:28:47well it means my broad portfolio has
1:28:49just made a bunch of money
1:28:50so i don't care if these get assigned um
1:28:54that's basically what that is so
1:28:57um i would answer your question in the
1:28:59opposite
1:29:00no i don't sell covered calls but i do
1:29:03sell cash secured puts
1:29:05um that is is the way to
1:29:08improve your risk reward profile selling
1:29:11covered calls against long positions
1:29:12when your actual purpose is trend
1:29:14following
1:29:15that's not a good idea that's not
1:29:16reducing risk that's
1:29:18that's just capping your your gains um
1:29:25your strategies are so good do you think
1:29:27you are going to be a
1:29:29billionaire
1:29:32nope i am not going to be a billionaire
1:29:34so
1:29:35this is another thing that is a very
1:29:37common misconception when you see people
1:29:39posting their performance online
1:29:42sometimes it can give you the impression
1:29:44that
1:29:45they should be much wealthier than they
1:29:47are right you you look at the results
1:29:49this is my portfolio
1:29:51and this is live right this all of these
1:29:54trades went out to the vts community
1:29:56for nine years straight a lot of people
1:29:58look at this and they think well
1:30:01i mean shouldn't you be a mega
1:30:03millionaire by now
1:30:04i mean this is good results you've been
1:30:06making 20
1:30:07a year for nine years straight shouldn't
1:30:10you be
1:30:12well just run the numbers yourself right
1:30:15i mean
1:30:15i used to be a professional golfer and
1:30:18not a very successful one i mean
1:30:20i was a good golfer i almost made it on
1:30:23the pga tour
1:30:24but i mean my peak world ranking in golf
1:30:27was something like you know 690 or
1:30:30something so
1:30:31i mean i was good i i had a successful
1:30:35career
1:30:36but no i didn't succeed in my golf
1:30:38career so
1:30:40i started my investment career with a
1:30:42totally normal amount of money just like
1:30:45everybody does
1:30:46and i i work and i try to make profit
1:30:49and i i've done very well the last nine
1:30:53years i've made my 20
1:30:54a year and i i hopefully plan to
1:30:56continue that especially with the the
1:30:58leverage strategies and the
1:31:00you know the the overlay of the vault
1:31:01trend there are ways i can continue
1:31:03making 20
1:31:04but just run the numbers i mean if you
1:31:06start with a modest amount of capital
1:31:08and you make 20 a year and let's say you
1:31:11add a little bit because i do have a job
1:31:12and i do make a good income
1:31:14it still doesn't add up to the numbers
1:31:16that people have in their head
1:31:18um it takes time takes a lot of time to
1:31:20develop that kind of
1:31:22money so no i'm not forget about
1:31:24billionaire i'm not going to be a
1:31:26you know go way down drop two zeros off
1:31:29that i'm not gonna be that
1:31:30um no money doesn't scale that way
1:31:35so don't look at people's results online
1:31:37and their claims on twitter about how
1:31:39they're rolling in wealth
1:31:41and actually take it seriously it's not
1:31:43it's money doesn't scale that way just
1:31:45go into a compound interest calculator
1:31:46and you'll see
1:31:48time is the factor that matters the most
1:31:50so
1:31:52that's how i would answer that one
1:31:57one should temper the expectations
1:31:59because
1:32:00it could reverse at any time absolutely
1:32:03um
1:32:05i'm i'm a huge a proponent of this i am
1:32:07always trying to
1:32:09dial back people's expectations because
1:32:12this is the real world now unfortunately
1:32:15in 2021
1:32:17maybe starting from 2010 to now
1:32:20the investment world is colliding with
1:32:23the social media world
1:32:24and it's giving people these insane
1:32:26expectations of results
1:32:28when i'm telling you like i'm not rude
1:32:31i'm not insulting them
1:32:3399 of those claims are completely made
1:32:36up
1:32:36absolutely made up those people who are
1:32:39saying that they are millionaires
1:32:40trading
1:32:41they work the same mundane jobs that the
1:32:43rest of us do they they're not
1:32:45what they say they are but social media
1:32:47is giving people these
1:32:48insane expectations of do you know how
1:32:52good a 10
1:32:53rate of return is in the investment
1:32:54world i mean if you were an asset
1:32:56manager and you made 10
1:32:57return not every year but average doubt
1:33:00you know your compound annual growth
1:33:01rate
1:33:0210 a year for 30 years you are
1:33:05easily in the top 5 percent of all asset
1:33:08managers in the world
1:33:09that is substantial that is really
1:33:11really good returns
1:33:13well i mean spend five minutes on social
1:33:15media you're going to feel like a
1:33:16complete loser if you make 10
1:33:18return so i mean that's the difference
1:33:21none of that stuff
1:33:22is real um you know not to toot my own
1:33:25horn too much but what i've achieved in
1:33:26the last nine years is
1:33:29i mean if it wasn't for social media it
1:33:31would be pretty impressive i mean
1:33:32obviously in a sea of liars i
1:33:34i feel i appear to be an underachiever
1:33:38but boy i'll tell you i am not even the
1:33:41slightest bit disappointed in my
1:33:43my return so um
1:33:46absolutely very good point always keep
1:33:49realistic expectations
1:33:51um and and get get to your realistic
1:33:54expectations
1:33:55and then cut those in half again that's
1:33:57what you want to do because that's the
1:33:58reality of the world we live in
1:34:00inflation is you know if you trust the
1:34:02official numbers one percent
1:34:04if you trust your gut and your eyes and
1:34:06your your your checkbook
1:34:08it's probably close to four or five
1:34:10percent but
1:34:12there's no free money in this world it's
1:34:14hard to beat inflation you actually have
1:34:16to have a little bit of knowledge to
1:34:17beat the inflation rate with your
1:34:19investments
1:34:20so you know take inflation and add
1:34:23five percent to that you're killing it
1:34:25right
1:34:26add 10 to that you're you're doing well
1:34:29so
1:34:30yeah um
1:34:33new jean or new jean sorry about that if
1:34:35it's mispronounced wrong
1:34:37says hedge funds only best three to four
1:34:38percent per year absolutely right i mean
1:34:40look at this
1:34:41we um we've got
1:34:44hedge fund indexes
1:34:48i might have to log into this so
1:34:50apologies for that might take me a few
1:34:52seconds
1:34:52but yeah i mean you can look at at the
1:34:55hedge fund indices
1:34:56and you can see i mean these hedge fund
1:34:59managers a lot of people and this is one
1:35:01of the things that bothers me i might go
1:35:03on a little bit of a rant here
1:35:06feel free to log off if you don't like
1:35:08hearing me rant but
1:35:09a lot of people out there
1:35:13they really like to hack on hedge fund
1:35:14managers and hack on financial advisors
1:35:17and and they like to talk about how
1:35:19these guys are losers and they don't
1:35:20they don't make any money they can only
1:35:22make 4
1:35:23a year and asset managers 85 of them
1:35:26underperform their benchmarks
1:35:28it's very easy to to laugh at these
1:35:30people but i can assure you that
1:35:32they're not dummies i mean these are
1:35:34these are some of the smartest
1:35:37most educated sophisticated investors in
1:35:39the world and they're having a difficult
1:35:41time
1:35:42when they have to show performance they
1:35:44have a difficult time
1:35:46producing results at 10 a year
1:35:51you have to be really good at your job
1:35:52to get 10 percent a year
1:35:54and so a lot of people look at that and
1:35:55they say oh they're such losers well no
1:35:57they're not it's just that everybody
1:35:59you're following on social media
1:36:00who says that they make 20 or 30 a year
1:36:03those people are lying
1:36:04these people the hedge fund index they
1:36:07actually have to report stuff and they
1:36:09actually have
1:36:10a little bit on the line to report it
1:36:12accurately right
1:36:13so you look at these numbers not good
1:36:16uh three-year annualized 5.5 five-year
1:36:19annualized 10-year annualized 4.18
1:36:25guys these are some of the smartest
1:36:27people in the world
1:36:28making 4.18 return annualized
1:36:33you think that person you follow on
1:36:35twitter that's never published a word in
1:36:38the investment industry in their life
1:36:40you think their claims are accurate but
1:36:42these people
1:36:44who have dedicated their entire lives to
1:36:46investing
1:36:48that these are the dummies i'm i mean
1:36:51sorry about the rant but
1:36:54i think there's far too little respect
1:36:56for how difficult it is to make a good
1:36:58rate of return and social media is not
1:37:01making
1:37:01our job any easier to communicate this
1:37:03message my job gets harder
1:37:05every single year with every new person
1:37:08who shows up on twitter
1:37:09making outlandish claims my job just got
1:37:12harder
1:37:12now there's going to be an another
1:37:15thousand people that i have to convince
1:37:17that that is not accurate that the
1:37:19reality is
1:37:21doubling the inflation rate that's good
1:37:24you're doing well if you can do that if
1:37:25you can make 10
1:37:26a year you're crushing it just have a
1:37:28good job save your money
1:37:30invest in your account it'll grow and
1:37:33again with time
1:37:34time being the most important element
1:37:36you're gonna you're gonna crush it
1:37:38but if you start thinking that you know
1:37:41you're inadequate because you're making
1:37:4325
1:37:43a year you're going to do stupid things
1:37:45you're going to lose a lot of money and
1:37:47you're going to lose 10 years of your
1:37:48investing timeline
1:37:49because you've followed social media
1:37:51that is not accurate those
1:37:53those claims are not true so realistic
1:37:56expectations
1:37:58i spend an enormous amount of time
1:38:00explaining this to people and you know
1:38:03the gut reaction for a lot of them is
1:38:06don't listen to me
1:38:07go back on social media trust the
1:38:09confirmation bias go out there and look
1:38:11for it
1:38:12you'll find plenty of people who claim
1:38:14that they make far more than i do
1:38:17good luck do you set your stop losses
1:38:24i don't use stop losses um i don't use
1:38:27well i do in my options trading so let's
1:38:29go back to my portfolio here
1:38:31um we've got the vts options here 20
1:38:36in my option trading i'd say probably
1:38:38half the positions i
1:38:39take have stop losses like if i'm
1:38:41trading an iron condor
1:38:42short iron condor i will set stop losses
1:38:45if i'm doing a
1:38:46long vertical spread or a short call
1:38:48spread on uv xy or something
1:38:50typically i will use a stop loss but
1:38:52there's a lot of positions in options
1:38:54that i don't i just you know butterflies
1:38:56for example
1:38:57you kind of have to let them develop
1:38:58over time calendars maybe i might not
1:39:00use them but
1:39:01um in all the other things that you're
1:39:04seeing right here
1:39:05no stop losses the the defense of the
1:39:08portfolio is proper allocation sizing
1:39:10and that each one of these can cycle out
1:39:13of the position
1:39:14at any time and move into a safety
1:39:17position
1:39:18so that's my line of defense stop losses
1:39:20are fairly
1:39:22useless in the investment world um i i
1:39:25should probably do a full video
1:39:27explaining that because that's kind of
1:39:28kind of a bold statement but
1:39:30if you think about stop losses they
1:39:33quite often they just end up stopping
1:39:36you out at a time
1:39:37when the markets are just about to
1:39:39recover
1:39:40that can happen stop losses i mean as
1:39:42you know the
1:39:43vast majority of the market movements
1:39:45are at night so i mean what good is a
1:39:47stop loss if
1:39:48you know you wake up in the morning the
1:39:50market's already gapped down
1:39:52your stop-loss isn't going to do
1:39:53anything so no no i'm
1:39:56i'm fairly against stop losses i
1:39:58actually have a video on my youtube
1:40:00channel you can check out
1:40:02um let me fire up youtube here
1:40:09ages ago ages ago when did i do this
1:40:12video
1:40:13i hope i see it
1:40:16i remember it's red it's red does
1:40:22anybody see it
1:40:23is it popping up anywhere
1:40:26well i don't it it essentially says why
1:40:29i don't use stop losses
1:40:31with volatility trading or stop losses
1:40:33with volatility trading sorry about that
1:40:35um
1:40:38i probably passed it three or four times
1:40:40here um
1:40:42yeah go to that video it explains in
1:40:45detail why i don't use stop losses for
1:40:47short ball training
1:40:49and then you can just extend that and
1:40:50and apply it to anything else
1:40:54yep whip sauce exactly um what i tend to
1:40:57do
1:40:58is i i take positions based on
1:41:01a massive data analysis and when i feel
1:41:04like i'm in the right position that the
1:41:06markets are actually
1:41:08conducive to my position being
1:41:11obviously not predictable but
1:41:12statistically probable
1:41:14i just stay in it and when that is no
1:41:16longer the case that's when i move out
1:41:18of my position i don't let
1:41:20what the market does dictate what i'm
1:41:22doing right i don't
1:41:23just because it's down doesn't mean
1:41:25you're not in the wrong you're not in
1:41:27the right trade
1:41:28if the market gaps down to a certain
1:41:29level but all of the metrics i track
1:41:32say that i should still stay in that
1:41:34position i'm not going to let the market
1:41:36kick me out of my trade i'm going to
1:41:37take my trade based on what my metrics
1:41:39are telling me
1:41:40so um trend following sometimes you just
1:41:43have to take a drawdown
1:41:45you know i try to manage them as best i
1:41:46can but stop losses is uh
1:41:49it's adding an extra layer an extra
1:41:52variable
1:41:53that is unpredictable and probably not
1:41:58helpful
1:42:00that's a that's a good tip right there
1:42:02um
1:42:03sorry i can't pronounce this juicy your
1:42:06video tabs
1:42:07has a search function you can find
1:42:09something next time awesome because i
1:42:10have actually
1:42:12i think i have about 140 videos
1:42:15and what i just did scrolling through
1:42:17there that certainly didn't look like
1:42:18140 videos
1:42:20um i don't want to pull it up again but
1:42:23yeah thanks that's a great tip
1:42:25i will use that search function
1:42:29jordan says in i'm in crypto and i feel
1:42:32like it's nothing but volatility with
1:42:34how it moves i'm glad i found this type
1:42:36of strategy
1:42:38uh well thank you for that um
1:42:42that's what you signed up for if you're
1:42:44in crypto that's
1:42:45that's the game that's what they're
1:42:47doing i mean crypto is just uh
1:42:50it's just a daily dopamine hit if you're
1:42:52a trader that's that's what you're there
1:42:53for
1:42:54so if you're looking for stability
1:42:59no things that drop 20 on a saturday and
1:43:02then recover 10 percent on a sunday
1:43:04probably isn't for you that's i mean i
1:43:07went over it earlier in the stream why i
1:43:09don't really trade bitcoin but
1:43:11why i never have until now but i might
1:43:13jump in for fun
1:43:15but that's one of the things i said it's
1:43:16just i mean how can you possibly even
1:43:19quantify anything that's going on
1:43:22but enjoy i hope you do well i know
1:43:24there's um
1:43:25you know it's overblown obviously the
1:43:27number of crypto millionaires is
1:43:29is way less than the media would have us
1:43:31believe uh we can just go in and we can
1:43:33see the statistics on the average size
1:43:35of of
1:43:36digital wallets out there we know that
1:43:38you know 99
1:43:39of them are not crypto millionaires but
1:43:42hopefully you are hopefully you've
1:43:43you've done well
1:43:52is your strategy affected by the
1:43:54increasing commodity prices
1:43:56um no not at all
1:44:00i think we talked about this earlier in
1:44:01the stream commodities are sort of their
1:44:03own thing i wouldn't
1:44:05i don't trade them because my specific
1:44:07data doesn't apply very well to
1:44:09commodities
1:44:10um i'm all volatility related and of
1:44:14course if you're talking about the vix
1:44:15index
1:44:16it's calculated directly based on s p
1:44:18500 options
1:44:19activity so um what's happening in corn
1:44:22futures
1:44:24very very disconnected it's i'm not
1:44:26saying it's unrelated
1:44:27but it's certainly several derivatives
1:44:29away
1:44:30from what i do and and what's the old
1:44:32saying um
1:44:34something about you can you can get the
1:44:39what is it it's from that movie tommy
1:44:41boy something about getting the butcher
1:44:43you can just ask the butcher yourself
1:44:44you know getting the information
1:44:46directly from the horse's mouth
1:44:47basically
1:44:48um i wish i remembered that tommyboy
1:44:51that aged me
1:44:52right yeah i'm not that young
1:44:55i'm 45 years old um
1:44:58when when you're talking about
1:45:00commodities you're talking about several
1:45:01layers down so i'm not saying it doesn't
1:45:03affect the market
1:45:04but what i try to do is go to the the
1:45:07absolute source
1:45:08right so in in the future if you tune
1:45:11into these live streams with me
1:45:13you will probably at some point hear me
1:45:15rant about people who do technical
1:45:17analysis
1:45:18on the vix or the vxx or uvxy
1:45:22you'll probably hear me rant against
1:45:23that and the fundamental reason
1:45:25is because that is a very
1:45:28indirect way to look at the market like
1:45:31the vix is a derivative of the s p
1:45:33500 options market the vxx is a
1:45:36derivative of the vix futures market
1:45:38these are unrelated you can't draw lines
1:45:40on something i mean you can
1:45:42but it's it's several layers down so why
1:45:44not just go to the source why not just
1:45:46go straight to the horse's mouth
1:45:47if you're going to be using commodities
1:45:50as input variables
1:45:52um you're getting very indirect signals
1:45:55not saying it can't work hopefully you
1:45:57found a way to make it work
1:45:58for you but no i am
1:46:01i i try to go as hyper focused
1:46:04to what i'm trying to trade as possible
1:46:10james bradley thank you for for coming
1:46:13in here it's always good to see friends
1:46:15because i i told you how nervous i was i
1:46:17still
1:46:18am i mean butterflies how long has this
1:46:20been going for
1:46:21an hour and 46 minutes um i'm nervous
1:46:26so what james thanks for thanks for
1:46:28showing up
1:46:34doing great at my first live stream oh
1:46:37thank you
1:46:39i guarantee it's it's not great but you
1:46:41guys are you guys are being
1:46:43you're making it easy like i said i was
1:46:45gonna pop on here and just check my
1:46:47sound and i thought it would be an hour
1:46:48of technical difficulties so
1:46:50um this isn't that bad maybe we can do
1:46:53another one
1:46:57follow-up question just on that
1:46:58commodity stuff i was talking about
1:47:00uh but can the commodity prices dampen
1:47:02the long equity positions
1:47:06can it dampen the long equity positions
1:47:08i'm not sure what you're trying to get
1:47:09at there
1:47:10um i i mean are
1:47:13are you meaning that if if commodities
1:47:15say started
1:47:16sucking up some of the volume in the
1:47:18market that it would it would take away
1:47:19from some of the action in this
1:47:21in the equities i don't know
1:47:25sorry about that that might be a normal
1:47:28thing actually for me to just
1:47:29not understand the question so i got to
1:47:31be more conscious of that
1:47:32sorry about that i basically punted on
1:47:35your question there
1:47:38um another one spx is also comprised of
1:47:41different stocks and sometimes a
1:47:43particular stock could move the market
1:47:44yep yeah absolutely um
1:47:46you i did an article about that recently
1:47:48where you really do
1:47:50want to make sure that you wait
1:47:53let me just check it is a screen share
1:47:56good
1:47:56you really do want to make sure that the
1:48:00the index that you're tracking you want
1:48:02to make sure that you know what's in
1:48:04that index
1:48:04right where's that article i know it was
1:48:06very recent
1:48:08there we go this sounds familiar
1:48:11different indexes have different
1:48:12holdings so you can see this is the
1:48:14top 10 holdings of the s p 500 apple is
1:48:17a six point four
1:48:18five percent holding so of course one
1:48:20stock i mean it could
1:48:22influence if something happened if
1:48:24samsung
1:48:25comes out with something that's just
1:48:27brilliant right and apple for some
1:48:29reason
1:48:30felt threatened and people thought it
1:48:31was bad and it tanked in price
1:48:33you could envision a scenario where the
1:48:35s p could take a serious hit
1:48:37even though nothing in the overall
1:48:38market really happened whereas the mdy
1:48:41this is the s p
1:48:42400 mid cap etf you can see the average
1:48:4510 holdings here these are very small so
1:48:48i mean it doesn't matter what happens at
1:48:50monolithic power systems
1:48:52you're not really going to have a
1:48:53problem with the mdy so
1:48:56absolutely that's that's a very good
1:48:58point that
1:48:59you really want to make sure you know
1:49:00what's in the indexes that you're
1:49:02trading
1:49:03nasdaq for example massive massive
1:49:05allocations to
1:49:07the large tech companies so um yeah
1:49:11brian says destroy the like button
1:49:13absolutely
1:49:16don't don't break your computer but
1:49:18smash it as hard as you can
1:49:19um that like button i hate asking people
1:49:24in my videos
1:49:25if you look at the comment sections the
1:49:28one comment that i get sometimes and i
1:49:30completely agree with you
1:49:32is why would i hit the like button
1:49:34before i watch your video
1:49:36it doesn't make any sense stop asking
1:49:38people to hit the like button before i
1:49:39watch your video
1:49:40can i at least watch it first make sure
1:49:42i like it and then hit the like
1:49:45i agree 100 it's the dumbest thing in
1:49:47the world but
1:49:48unfortunately we are all subject to the
1:49:51all-powerful youtube algorithm
1:49:53and there is nothing more beneficial for
1:49:55a youtuber
1:49:56than likes or dislikes
1:49:59to be honest i actually saw a study
1:50:01recently likes and dislikes are the same
1:50:04so i'm not going to be thrilled if you
1:50:06dislike my videos
1:50:07but i think what the algorithm is
1:50:10showing is engagement
1:50:11so a dislike is engagement so um
1:50:15give me a thumbs up if you like the
1:50:17video give me a thumbs down
1:50:19if you just want to test this theory
1:50:22about youtube engagement
1:50:24but uh yeah it'll hurt my feelings but
1:50:31shastri family um thank you for the nice
1:50:34comment there
1:50:35um i will do my best i will
1:50:38absolutely do my best
1:50:42i actually don't have that many people
1:50:44to talk about investing with like i told
1:50:46you i'm
1:50:47basically an omnivert um i'll i'll be
1:50:50social if people invite me
1:50:52out for for a beer or something but for
1:50:54the vast majority of my life
1:50:56i am alone i'm an introvert so i don't
1:50:58actually have that many people to talk
1:51:00about investing with i am
1:51:02alone with my thoughts a lot and that's
1:51:03why i end up talking to myself a lot uh
1:51:06my girlfriend hears me in the other room
1:51:07she's just like who are you talking to
1:51:10um but yeah so doing these live streams
1:51:13would be great
1:51:13i mean if i could get over my nerves
1:51:15then i'd love to have a place to just
1:51:18hang out once a week and just chat about
1:51:20investing
1:51:21um yeah oh the stream jumped a bit here
1:51:25sorry about that
1:51:26i might have missed people's comments
1:51:28jumped a lot
1:51:30oh jeff mccarter thank you so much jeff
1:51:32for for hanging out
1:51:33speaking of that was ironic um
1:51:36yeah jeff there is one of the very few
1:51:38people that i can have
1:51:40that we have emails back and forth very
1:51:42deep conversations and i
1:51:43i really really appreciate it so let me
1:51:46take this
1:51:47you know uh serendipitous opportunity to
1:51:50to thank you for that it's i can't tell
1:51:53you how helpful it is for my work
1:51:55when i have other people to bounce ideas
1:51:57off of it's
1:51:58it's so helpful and just the last year
1:52:01talking to you
1:52:02privately it's it's really really
1:52:04changed a lot of the ways that i look at
1:52:06things so
1:52:07thank you for that and thanks for
1:52:08dropping by that's really nice
1:52:12the algorithm doesn't count the likes
1:52:14until you have watched it for at least
1:52:16a little while
1:52:19so if you're watching my video
1:52:23and you only stay for 20 seconds give it
1:52:25a like and then leave
1:52:26you're saying that the youtube algorithm
1:52:28doesn't credit me with that
1:52:30that'll be disappointing because i mean
1:52:33i don't mean to reveal too much of the
1:52:35behind the scenes but
1:52:36in youtube you can see the back
1:52:38analytics right so i can actually see
1:52:40when people are watching the video i can
1:52:43pinpoint
1:52:44the times where they're going to a
1:52:46different video
1:52:47and uh i gotta say only half the people
1:52:50that watch or
1:52:52people only make it through half my
1:52:53video so the average watch time of my
1:52:56videos is about seven minutes and
1:52:58the average person um clicks off after
1:53:0220 seconds so i hope you're wrong on
1:53:05that but i'm gonna do some research
1:53:06because
1:53:08i want those likes again
1:53:11youtube makes us do it i don't want to
1:53:13do it you know my personality you know i
1:53:14don't want to ask for things like that
1:53:16but
1:53:17yeah that that like button's so
1:53:19important
1:53:22random question any opinion on what
1:53:24happened to gme
1:53:25today funny example of the markets we're
1:53:28in well let's check it out um this is
1:53:30one of the things you'll notice about
1:53:31the live streams
1:53:33when you when you follow me is
1:53:36there's going to be a lot of things in
1:53:38the market that i know nothing about
1:53:40right if you ask me about certain things
1:53:45i might not have a clue what you're
1:53:46talking about as i do not right now so
1:53:48you're talking about gamestop yeah there
1:53:50you go up 56.94 percent
1:53:53that's something um i'm not a gamer i've
1:53:56never been i've never played games
1:53:58um i don't know i don't know anything
1:54:02about gamestop
1:54:03and i don't know anything about
1:54:05individual stocks or not i wouldn't say
1:54:07anything but
1:54:08not as much it's not my expertise i
1:54:10trade indexes
1:54:11i trade volatility obviously massive
1:54:13focus on volatility
1:54:15but there will be times you'll ask me
1:54:17about a stock and i
1:54:18i might not even know what it is like
1:54:20this one i didn't even know what
1:54:21gamestop was
1:54:22um up 55 yeah
1:54:27i would imagine without looking um it's
1:54:30probably
1:54:31some type of announcement like was there
1:54:34a new game
1:54:35announced or a new console announced
1:54:38or something like that or perhaps a
1:54:40competitor
1:54:42in the you know the chip space came out
1:54:45with some
1:54:45advanced chip that's going to you know
1:54:48cycle down through all the other
1:54:50companies that use those chips and maybe
1:54:52that's what happened i don't know
1:54:54um maybe somebody made a revolutionary
1:54:57breakthrough today on ai
1:54:59and you know gamestop will benefit from
1:55:01that i have no idea
1:55:02sorry
1:55:06where did i learn to speak chinese um
1:55:10this is a tip that i can give you but it
1:55:12may not apply to everybody
1:55:14but it is a very good idea to date a
1:55:18girl
1:55:18who doesn't speak english that is a very
1:55:21good first step
1:55:22so um my girlfriend
1:55:25we started dating 11 years ago but she's
1:55:27a she's a yoga teacher
1:55:29and i was in her yoga class and of
1:55:32course i asked her out we went on our
1:55:33first date
1:55:34and she doesn't speak english and i
1:55:37didn't speak chinese
1:55:38so it was it was rough but
1:55:41that date lasted four hours it was
1:55:43awesome we had we stayed at the
1:55:45restaurant we
1:55:46you know crushed several bottles of wine
1:55:48it was great
1:55:49um but because she doesn't speak english
1:55:52or at least
1:55:52she understands a lot of english but she
1:55:54never ever speaks
1:55:56english um so yeah i was just forced
1:55:59that's it i just had to do it um if i
1:56:01want a second date
1:56:02just get out the books just start
1:56:04studying and it took me about a year to
1:56:06get to the point where we were
1:56:07conversational and then over the next
1:56:1110 years we've been together a long time
1:56:15you just kind of learn what you learn so
1:56:17if you were to ask me how to explain my
1:56:19business
1:56:20in chinese i couldn't answer you if you
1:56:22were to ask me
1:56:23if we just have a conversation over
1:56:25coffee yeah i can
1:56:27i can communicate that way but that
1:56:30would be i mean chinese is so hard to
1:56:31learn uh
1:56:32it's a very tone specific language if
1:56:34you're saying it wrong if you don't
1:56:35learn
1:56:36properly the first six months of your
1:56:37study you're dead you you could think
1:56:40you're fluent 10 years later and you
1:56:41could say full sentences in your head
1:56:44and the people listening have no idea
1:56:45what you're saying it the tone
1:56:47assigns the meaning to the word so if
1:56:50you say it wrong
1:56:51you're done so that was what i would say
1:56:53i would say um i was forced to learn
1:56:56vanessa we're 95
1:57:00chinese in our in our home so
1:57:04it's another benefit to these live
1:57:05streams i get to actually speak english
1:57:07that's nice
1:57:12gme had 60 of the float short yeah that
1:57:14that that could do it if if anything
1:57:16just
1:57:17it you know sets that tinder on fire
1:57:21it can go
1:57:26i don't know i don't know anything about
1:57:27individual stocks interesting
1:57:29um massive massive update and this is
1:57:31not a small company so
1:57:33it's bizarre to see it go up this much
1:57:35um
1:57:36it's not it's not like it's some you
1:57:37know micro cap stock
1:57:40seems pretty big
1:57:43markets are closing here in a minute i'm
1:57:45going to have to deal with this
1:57:48issue there
1:57:52any more questions how long have we been
1:57:53going thank you everybody so much for
1:57:56showing up my first ever live stream
1:57:59unbelievably nervous can't even tell you
1:58:01how nervous
1:58:04um
1:58:06yeah why did i delay it so long it's one
1:58:09of those things that that might be a
1:58:10lesson for some of you out there if
1:58:12you've got a
1:58:13an expertise that you want to share with
1:58:15the world
1:58:16maybe you you have a company that
1:58:19marketing is part of your company
1:58:21and you're thinking about starting a
1:58:22youtube channel or you're thinking about
1:58:25starting live streams or a podcast
1:58:28do it just start it i can't believe i
1:58:31made that mistake and i waited so long
1:58:33um
1:58:36yeah this isn't nearly as bad as i
1:58:38thought it would be i thought
1:58:39i thought i thought i was gonna pass out
1:58:42i was so nervous yeah there's the day
1:58:46i think it was a boring day what
1:58:49happened
1:58:52spx see i mean my my focus is very
1:58:56very very specific in what i look at in
1:58:58the markets i don't look at individual
1:59:00stocks if you look at my watch list
1:59:0295 of my watch list is going to be stuff
1:59:05specific to my strategies just vts
1:59:08just our tactical rotation strategies
1:59:10that's all it is
1:59:13so you ask me about other companies you
1:59:15probably know more about it than i do
1:59:20michael bury is in gme
1:59:23michael bury how good was that movie
1:59:28it's one of my favorite movies i could
1:59:30watch that thing that and margin call
1:59:32i could watch those things i've probably
1:59:34seen them both 20 times
1:59:37michael thompson thank you from canada
1:59:40awesome
1:59:40um yep good old canada
1:59:44we lost the hockey game a couple weeks
1:59:45ago or last week but
1:59:47still proud canadians do you use your
1:59:50orders market on close automatically
1:59:52or do you do them manually so what i
1:59:56typically do with my first of all my
1:59:59accounts are all margin accounts so it
2:00:00doesn't matter for me if you're trading
2:00:02in a cash account
2:00:03you're you're going to have to ex exit
2:00:05the first trade first
2:00:06and then you're going to have to jump
2:00:07into the other one so you're going to do
2:00:09it manually
2:00:10so for me if it's the standard total
2:00:13portfolio
2:00:14with the unleveraged versions the
2:00:16liquidity is
2:00:17is very very good so i can do market on
2:00:20close
2:00:21so if i'm not going to be in front of my
2:00:22computer absolutely i very often do
2:00:25market on close
2:00:26when i'm using certain things like
2:00:28obviously option trading
2:00:29never ever use market orders for
2:00:31anything any reason at
2:00:32all don't use market orders use limit
2:00:36orders try to get your best fill price
2:00:38you don't have to nickel and dime it you
2:00:39don't have to sit there for three hours
2:00:41but you definitely want to make sure
2:00:43that you're getting a decent price if
2:00:45you do market orders on options
2:00:47you could especially if it's a multi-leg
2:00:49option you could be in trouble
2:00:51so um yeah what was i saying so the
2:00:55leverage strategies
2:00:58a few of those positions have bid ask
2:01:00spreads you know two to three pennies
2:01:02out
2:01:02like ust for example when we are trading
2:01:04treasuries
2:01:06um i'll try to manual that as as often
2:01:08as i can i'll try to use limit orders
2:01:11but again i touched on it earlier in the
2:01:14stream about how
2:01:15nothing at vts is small float
2:01:18small cap small stuff companies this is
2:01:21all very
2:01:22big so if you wanted to on all your etf
2:01:25trades
2:01:26i don't think it would hurt that bad if
2:01:27you use market on close
2:01:29um
2:01:33what happened there
2:01:36sorry again here here i am talking to
2:01:38myself
2:01:42my software just showed me something
2:01:44strange so i don't even know if i'm
2:01:45still live
2:01:50and also i'm not even sure if
2:01:53any of this is live i mean i'm seeing
2:01:55your comments
2:01:56of course i don't know how much of a
2:01:59delay there is
2:02:00like it's possible you asked me that
2:02:01question five minutes ago i don't know
2:02:06anybody have any ideas for cheaper
2:02:08margin interest rates than interactive
2:02:10brokers for two times svxy
2:02:13um i don't get into that too much
2:02:15because i don't know anything about
2:02:17brokers my long-term portfolio is with
2:02:19interactive brokers
2:02:20and i get um i like it
2:02:24i i feel like their commissions are good
2:02:27really good
2:02:28and um i feel like their margins are
2:02:32fair
2:02:32the way they calculate their margins
2:02:34remember that depending on what broker
2:02:36you're using
2:02:36there can be multiple ways to calculate
2:02:38it like if you're doing a short
2:02:41a naked put option or something like
2:02:42that there's several different ways that
2:02:45they can they can calculate that margin
2:02:47i feel like interactive brokers is
2:02:50is pretty good if you're looking for
2:02:51better than that i mean the problem is
2:02:53it's svxy it's not
2:02:54it's not the broker it's the etf the etf
2:02:58svxy
2:02:59does require full margin i mean it just
2:03:02does
2:03:02so um that's oftentimes why i use vxx
2:03:06if you look at this testing account we
2:03:08got going here
2:03:09um why do i use my vault trend strategy
2:03:13on vxx well simply vxx has much better
2:03:16margins
2:03:17right i could use uvxy just different
2:03:20leverage factor it's just 1 to 1.5
2:03:23but uvxy requires the full margin so
2:03:26vxx is far more efficient than uvxy
2:03:29whenever you're seeing people trading
2:03:32single leg options on uv xy like if
2:03:34they're selling
2:03:35a call or something vxx is far more
2:03:38efficient i don't know why anybody
2:03:40sells naked positions on uv xy
2:03:43or buying the stock i mean vxx requires
2:03:46half margin and
2:03:47interactive brokers is probably the same
2:03:50um
2:03:51yeah so unfortunately
2:03:54i don't think you can get better margin
2:03:56than what you're getting i think svxy is
2:03:58a one times margin factor and you're not
2:04:00going to be able to beat that
2:04:01so the reason when you're trading two
2:04:04times svxy
2:04:05that you can still do that is if you're
2:04:07in a margin account
2:04:08i can go show you this real quick if you
2:04:10look at this mvv
2:04:12this is a thirty thousand dollar
2:04:13position but the break point effect is
2:04:15only twelve thousand dollars
2:04:17and our qld is the same it's only twelve
2:04:21thousand
2:04:22my sso is only 12 000. so this is in a
2:04:25margin account
2:04:26and let's say i didn't substitute it
2:04:28remember in this account i'm using the
2:04:30tactical volatility
2:04:31just because i think it's more
2:04:32interesting and people want to actually
2:04:34see it
2:04:34in the test account i want to go ahead
2:04:36and do that with with
2:04:38the long put options on vxx but if i did
2:04:40svxy
2:04:41i could double up that position easily
2:04:44because i'm not utilizing the rest of my
2:04:45margin
2:04:46so even though it is punishing you know
2:04:48svxy
2:04:50it um it's it's still fine if you're in
2:04:54a margin account if you're in a cash
2:04:55account can't do it you have to do one
2:04:56times svxy
2:04:58and you just hopefully at some point
2:05:00we're gonna get a minus one times
2:05:02etf replacement for the old xiv that we
2:05:05all love so much
2:05:07until then margin account you can double
2:05:10it up and you can go two times
2:05:12or non-margin account you're going to
2:05:14have to go one time
2:05:17karsten checking in from denmark awesome
2:05:19uh high on my list scandinavian
2:05:21countries
2:05:22um super high on my list i i
2:05:25i gotta get there at some point and and
2:05:28quite a few members you know
2:05:29denmark norway sweden we've got we've
2:05:31got quite a substantial amount of people
2:05:33from there
2:05:34um and you have local currency
2:05:38same yep this is a very common question
2:05:40gains of ets could be canceled out
2:05:42so my only answer is i'm not a
2:05:45registered advisor i know nothing about
2:05:47denmark
2:05:49i don't know anything about your
2:05:50regulations so obviously consult a
2:05:52professional
2:05:52check with a lawyer check with an actual
2:05:54asset manager
2:05:56but what i personally do is just don't
2:06:00worry about exchange don't worry about
2:06:01currency
2:06:02i don't want to add another layer to my
2:06:04trading i don't want to have to also be
2:06:06trying to time currency
2:06:07fluctuations so what i actually do is
2:06:10just
2:06:11all my money's in us dollars i'm
2:06:13canadian but
2:06:14all my money's in international uh
2:06:17broker accounts
2:06:18interactive brokers it's an
2:06:19international account but it's all
2:06:21denominated in u.s dollars
2:06:23and i just trade so
2:06:26i mean denmark is kind of a smaller
2:06:28country canada suffers the same thing
2:06:30where
2:06:31if you're trying to use the um the
2:06:34currency hedged etf replacements
2:06:37sometimes you can run into volume issues
2:06:38with those they're they're not that
2:06:40highly traded so the money that you're
2:06:43trying to avoid
2:06:44with doing repeated currency exchanges
2:06:46you might get that swallowed up by the
2:06:48slippage cost
2:06:49in that the etfs are less liquid so
2:06:52uh again like i recommended to the other
2:06:54person who asked the same question
2:06:56track everything make sure that you make
2:06:59a spreadsheet and you look at the price
2:07:01of the etf when you were trading it the
2:07:03live
2:07:04quote and then check your fill prices go
2:07:07back over a few months and see how much
2:07:09slippage there is
2:07:10and then you're gonna just have to weigh
2:07:12it against the
2:07:14you know the inconvenience of having all
2:07:16your money in usd or all your money and
2:07:18whatever you do and then change it over
2:07:22i was gonna try to sound smart and and
2:07:24say what the denmark currency is called
2:07:27but can't think of it
2:07:33sorry that would have been smooth but no
2:07:36i don't know what your currency is
2:07:38called
2:07:40do you have a performance chart do you
2:07:42have a performance chart of the
2:07:44portfolio
2:07:45on how it did on monthly basis since
2:07:47inception yeah i talked about this
2:07:49before
2:07:49i've shown the results on my website
2:07:53um you know every day for nine years so
2:07:55if you're ever interested
2:07:56in my performance if you're ever
2:07:58interested in seeing what the vts
2:08:00strategies have done
2:08:02everything is on the website now
2:08:06give me a second i will get back to the
2:08:08massive disclaimer
2:08:09involved in that but the one thing you
2:08:12also have to understand is you might
2:08:14want to email me and
2:08:15ask me what the official launch date for
2:08:17the strategies were
2:08:18because what i've tried to do in
2:08:22any case that i can is show as much
2:08:24history as i can
2:08:25so let's go to the tactical balance
2:08:28strategy for example
2:08:29so this strategy i've been posting the
2:08:31results for nine years
2:08:33every single day all the trades that go
2:08:35out to the vts community
2:08:36this is live problem is this says it
2:08:40goes back to 2006
2:08:41and that is not true i launched my
2:08:43business in january 2012
2:08:46and this strategy was in the portfolio
2:08:48from day one
2:08:49so if you see any of the performance
2:08:51like back here
2:08:53uh 2006 seven eight this is not live
2:08:56so my live performance started right
2:08:59about there right here hopefully you can
2:09:02see my mouse on the live
2:09:04streams started here and the rest is
2:09:07the signals that went out different
2:09:08strategies are different like tactical
2:09:10volatility
2:09:11nine years um tactical balance nine
2:09:13years
2:09:14vb threshold uh six years
2:09:17defensive rotation very new right good
2:09:20example very new strategy
2:09:21we launched this uh the the end of 2019
2:09:25so definitely email me if you want to
2:09:27know the details of when they all
2:09:29launched officially
2:09:31but everything you see in the total
2:09:33portfolio solution
2:09:35this is all live none of this has ever
2:09:37changed if i introduce a new strategy
2:09:39nothing gets changed retroactively going
2:09:41backwards this is exactly what the vts
2:09:44community
2:09:44participated in so go ahead and email me
2:09:48and ask for further details on that
2:09:50what i said about the disclaimer is
2:09:53the one you know obvious elephant in the
2:09:55room how do you know i'm lying
2:09:57well you don't um that's just the fact
2:09:59of it i didn't i'm not gonna send you a
2:10:00kpmg
2:10:01audit or anything like that so obviously
2:10:04if you trust me
2:10:05that performance is what you're looking
2:10:07for so you can always go onto the
2:10:08website and you can get those numbers
2:10:10statistics as well drawdowns all of that
2:10:13stuff uh you know ulcer performance
2:10:15index
2:10:15super important statistics and um
2:10:19and that's it yeah i
2:10:22that's all i can tell you so check the
2:10:24results check the website we've got a a
2:10:26massive community of people who
2:10:28who you know i am an honest person i'm a
2:10:31professional golfer so
2:10:32it's a gentleman's game and we always
2:10:34call ourselves on penalties and whatnot
2:10:36so
2:10:37i am honest but even if i wasn't we've
2:10:40got you know
2:10:41there's a thousand people that will keep
2:10:43me honest about reporting those results
2:10:44so
2:10:45that check the website everything you
2:10:47need to know about the strategies is on
2:10:49there
2:10:51and i don't mean that dismissively like
2:10:53hey go check the website i mean go check
2:10:55the website and if you have questions
2:10:57volatility trading strategies at
2:10:58hotmail.com email me some follow-ups i
2:11:01will definitely answer anything you want
2:11:03to know
2:11:05um okay so oh there it is danish crohn's
2:11:08i knew it
2:11:10i knew it yeah but now i look stupid
2:11:13because i didn't know it right
2:11:17could be down vts is up yeah absolutely
2:11:20it's a it's a risk that we all take
2:11:22uh currency if you're in the game of
2:11:26trying to you know if you have a good
2:11:28bead on where things like that are going
2:11:30then
2:11:31i guess i would say good luck but for me
2:11:36trading is already complicated enough
2:11:38the last thing i want to do is add
2:11:40another layer
2:11:41of adjustments for currency exchange
2:11:44differences in what i do trying to time
2:11:47the fact that well the canadian dollar
2:11:49is doing this and i think it's going to
2:11:50do that so
2:11:52it's just adding another level that i
2:11:54don't need
2:11:55can't tell you not to but that's when
2:11:57you would want to consult a
2:11:58financial professional for sure
2:12:04tom says um he uses investor line and
2:12:08the cost for
2:12:09ng is about point one percent to account
2:12:12for the bid ask
2:12:12yeah um of course you can always shop
2:12:16around and and these are
2:12:17these are brokers that obviously they
2:12:20want your business so
2:12:21any questions that you ask them they're
2:12:24going to
2:12:25obviously give you the right answer they
2:12:26want your business so you can email me
2:12:29email them they'll tell you their
2:12:30breakdown of commissions they probably
2:12:32have some prepared sheet
2:12:34where they're going to try to show you
2:12:35that their commissions are lower than
2:12:36anywhere else
2:12:37they'll do all of that and um another
2:12:40thing that you want to be aware of
2:12:42there is no harm in asking for reduced
2:12:44rates right this is something that a lot
2:12:46of people don't understand about
2:12:48their brokers but of course they're in
2:12:50the business to make money
2:12:51so if you want you know reduced
2:12:54commissions
2:12:56you can always ask them i mean worst
2:12:58case scenario they say no but i know
2:12:59lots of people myself included i have
2:13:01reduced commission rates
2:13:03now it doesn't matter so much it went
2:13:04back to the normal rates but at
2:13:06interactive brokers
2:13:07probably from about 2012 to 2018
2:13:12i had reduced rates at toss as well
2:13:16you can do that they'll probably say no
2:13:18but you can ask and
2:13:20i don't think they can adjust their
2:13:21margin requirements i think that's a
2:13:23legal problem
2:13:24but yeah if if you're having commission
2:13:25issues email your broker
2:13:27ask them get them on the live chat and
2:13:30see if you can straighten that out and
2:13:32and always try to slip that in
2:13:34say look i i trade quite a bit i like
2:13:36your broker i want to stay
2:13:38can you give me a little bit of a break
2:13:39on those commissions and maybe they say
2:13:42yes
2:13:45something we need to be aware of 30
2:13:48percent kegger
2:13:49i assume you mean um are you able to
2:13:52trust that compound annual growth rate
2:13:55so
2:13:55what that portfolio is
2:13:59i'll just confirm that that's what
2:14:00you're
2:14:03yep esteban thank you so much tons of
2:14:05good questions today
2:14:06and um apologies live streaming is not
2:14:09my thing but i will get better but thank
2:14:11you so much for coming
2:14:13um question was do you need to be aware
2:14:15of the 30 percent cagger
2:14:17i assume what you're saying is that
2:14:19sounds high
2:14:20and it is high that number is not coming
2:14:24from
2:14:25emails that went out to subscribers
2:14:26entirely that is only coming from the
2:14:29last say six months
2:14:31the leveraged portfolio is
2:14:34essentially what would have been sent
2:14:37out
2:14:38based on the normal portfolio so this is
2:14:40the unleveraged total portfolio this is
2:14:43live all the trades that went out the
2:14:46leverage total portfolio is just scaled
2:14:48off of this
2:14:50so the if you want to get the actual
2:14:52live trades that went out to real
2:14:54you know paying subscribers you're
2:14:57looking for the purple i've color coded
2:14:59all my stuff
2:15:00um purple total portfolio solution
2:15:03everything you see here is totally live
2:15:06trading
2:15:07the reason that this strategy made 20
2:15:10and the leveraged total portfolio says
2:15:1430 is because there is
2:15:17certain positions in the unleveraged
2:15:19strategies
2:15:20that we are taking the additional
2:15:22leverage of the etf
2:15:24so sorry i keep confirming that you're
2:15:27on screen share here
2:15:28but this is my interactive brokers right
2:15:31um this mmv is a leveraged
2:15:35mdy position so the performance
2:15:38of that portfolio is based on replacing
2:15:42mdy with
2:15:43mvv that's what it would have looked
2:15:44like so i can say that yeah the
2:15:46leveraged total portfolio
2:15:48it's basically live but it's not
2:15:50literally live
2:15:51only the purple only that sorry the
2:15:54purple
2:15:55total portfolio solution and all of the
2:15:58other strategies related to it
2:15:59is live this is live right so these
2:16:02strategies
2:16:03since their inception date i show
2:16:05nothing but live trading
2:16:06all right it's the only way to do it
2:16:08it's people will go to
2:16:10great lengths in this industry to not
2:16:12show you what you want to see
2:16:13but um i have i just show it all i have
2:16:17nothing to hide
2:16:19charts statistics everything it's
2:16:21unbelievable how often these days you
2:16:23will ask somebody for something
2:16:25and they'll give you just a list of
2:16:26trades they'll just say here's the
2:16:28trades
2:16:29and what you're supposed to just imagine
2:16:31what it looks like on a chart like there
2:16:34there's so many things that people do
2:16:35that just it's frustrating so just go
2:16:37onto the website every single month
2:16:39check the
2:16:39performance it's all there
2:16:46good question how often do you suggest
2:16:47we need to monitor the positions
2:16:50um near zero and the reason i say that
2:16:53is because
2:16:54once you're in the position your day is
2:16:57done
2:16:57right we don't we never trade positions
2:17:00intraday once we're in it it's once per
2:17:01day
2:17:02and then the next day if necessary we
2:17:04will cycle out of it and move into some
2:17:06safety or whatever it is
2:17:08so no you don't have to monitor now with
2:17:10options i should clarify with option
2:17:11trading
2:17:12i monitor everything so technically you
2:17:15don't have to
2:17:17because we'll never open or close a
2:17:19trade intraday
2:17:20after i've sent the daily email so you
2:17:22don't actually have to monitor anything
2:17:25but if you want to you know
2:17:28monitoring etf positions that's boring
2:17:30they're
2:17:31i don't know why you'd want to do that
2:17:32but monitoring option positions
2:17:34sure you can just watch them you can see
2:17:37them go so this is my
2:17:38my vol trend trade that i have on
2:17:43i peek at it from time to time now i
2:17:44know what i'm doing i'm waiting for the
2:17:46you know friday and i'm
2:17:48waiting to collect my whatever twenty
2:17:50six hundred dollars
2:17:51but you can monitor if you want i have
2:17:54no plans for stop losses or anything
2:17:55like that with that trade so
2:17:57there's really nothing to monitor it's
2:17:59just it is what it is
2:18:04but you can ask me questions about the
2:18:07positions
2:18:09i can explain what i'm planning to do
2:18:12with the positions what would make me
2:18:14exit out of it all those things
2:18:20if you subscribe and you need help with
2:18:22the positions especially options are you
2:18:24available yeah
2:18:25like yeah i i spend an enormous amount
2:18:28of time answering emails
2:18:30um yep ask me anything you want
2:18:35if you don't understand how to actually
2:18:38execute the trade i can only help you
2:18:41with that
2:18:42if we have the same broker so if it's an
2:18:45actual execution
2:18:46problem and you trade with fidelity for
2:18:49example
2:18:50or schwab i've never even seen their
2:18:52platforms
2:18:53so of course i can't help you with that
2:18:55but if it's a structural like what is an
2:18:57iron condor
2:18:58when does it do well why did we say it
2:19:00why did we open it today
2:19:02sure absolutely um
2:19:06yeah and then of course with the live
2:19:08streams remember
2:19:09in this test account i will be executing
2:19:13all the option trades in here so
2:19:16i will be able to field direct questions
2:19:19you'll be able
2:19:20to see exactly what i'm doing remember
2:19:21this is this is just simulating the
2:19:23leveraged total portfolio so yeah you're
2:19:26going to see that and you're going to
2:19:26get
2:19:27hopefully if i'm doing my job correctly
2:19:30you're going to get all the help you
2:19:32need
2:19:35executionstd ameritrade perfect um like
2:19:38i said i i'm i'm an interactive brokers
2:19:40guy
2:19:40but now that we have the livestream
2:19:41account here we've got a good test
2:19:43account
2:19:44i can totally help you with any of the
2:19:45executions you want
2:19:49in the performance i noticed there is a
2:19:52worst month and there is a maximum can
2:19:54you explain what the difference between
2:19:55the two
2:19:56yeah um worst month is just what it
2:19:58sounds like the
2:19:59the worst single month of that strategy
2:20:02since inception and remember
2:20:04if you want to know what the actual live
2:20:06inception dates are you can email me and
2:20:08i'll tell you
2:20:08but i it's showing the worst single
2:20:12month loss
2:20:13the maximum monthly drawdown is
2:20:16let's say you had three losing months in
2:20:18a row of course your drawdown is going
2:20:20to be adding up it's a cumulative
2:20:22drawdown
2:20:22so that what the maximum monthly
2:20:24drawdown is is the absolute
2:20:26lowest drawdown that that strategy has
2:20:29ever had and it's on a monthly basis
2:20:31so on a day-to-day sometimes they're a
2:20:33little bit more
2:20:34and i get this follow-up question and i
2:20:36can show you the private statistics if
2:20:38you email me
2:20:39but the daily drawdown in the monthly
2:20:41drawdown it's
2:20:42fairly insignificant the difference
2:20:44between those our strategies are
2:20:46hyper focused on security and safety and
2:20:49rotating out of
2:20:50risky positions so our drawdowns are
2:20:52small across the board
2:20:54um but yeah you can always ask me what
2:20:57the daily
2:20:58drawdown is if you if you want to know
2:20:59that they're very close to the monthly
2:21:05demand yeah great job on the live stream
2:21:08test thank you so much
2:21:09thank you for showing up um i'm really
2:21:12humbled by this
2:21:13um i thought there'd be two people it
2:21:16would end in 10 minutes and
2:21:17and that would be that but this has been
2:21:20fun it's two hours 20 minutes
2:21:22you guys have stuff to do i'm sure right
2:21:27like i said i'm going running later look
2:21:28at that weather outside
2:21:31let's go to the big screen i'm going to
2:21:34reach across my computer here
2:21:39see if that's any better just so you can
2:21:41see outside
2:21:43i've got an nd filter on the camera so i
2:21:45can just turn it like that
2:21:47beautiful out there that's where i'm
2:21:48going in a few minutes
2:21:50can't wait
2:21:56when are you planning to execute the
2:21:58option positions next well the way that
2:22:00i trade options is entirely
2:22:02discretionary
2:22:03so um well okay
2:22:06i said that wrong um the strategies
2:22:09themselves
2:22:10are are systematic but the entries and
2:22:13exits not so much the exits the entries
2:22:16are discretionary so if i see something
2:22:18that i like
2:22:19then that's when i'm going to actually
2:22:20jump into the trade and lately
2:22:22a lot of people are asking why the
2:22:24volume on the vts or the vix options is
2:22:26so low lately we've only been taking
2:22:28three or four trades a month it is
2:22:30essentially because
2:22:32um the volatility levels we are seeing
2:22:35in the market right now
2:22:36are what we would call in limbo right
2:22:40they're
2:22:40they're not necessarily high so we're
2:22:43not in our
2:22:44you know risk off positions but they're
2:22:46not low either i mean if you look at our
2:22:48trading dials for our strategies
2:22:50let me open that up again i have to make
2:22:53sure i always remember
2:22:55to do this screen share first
2:22:58if you look i'm going to open up today's
2:23:01daily email
2:23:03um and and show you what i mean about
2:23:07these
2:23:08this the levels of volatility right now
2:23:12this is it the 13th this was the email
2:23:14from this morning
2:23:16um hopefully everybody can see this um
2:23:19in the in the background there
2:23:20so we've got a volatility barometer of
2:23:2355.59 that's kind of
2:23:25that's a bad range to be honest i don't
2:23:27like trading
2:23:28it's not that i don't like trading it's
2:23:29just it's a real choppy range
2:23:32that that that 55 is is not desirable
2:23:35so what what ends up happening when
2:23:37you're in this range
2:23:38is you can see the dials for the the
2:23:40strategies
2:23:41are pretty close to getting into the
2:23:44safety but not quite
2:23:45so you can easily be bounced around it
2:23:48can go it can go above and then the next
2:23:50day it goes down it can go back below
2:23:52very very frustrating and they're all
2:23:54kind of in that limbo range
2:23:56right so you can imagine with vix
2:24:00options it's kind of the same thing
2:24:02um i don't necessarily like to trade
2:24:05options when volatility is mid-range
2:24:09love trading options when it's low lots
2:24:11of trades to do when it's low
2:24:12and like it even more when it's high
2:24:15right when volatility is legitimately
2:24:17high
2:24:17there's an infinite number of trades to
2:24:20put on i mean it's like
2:24:21you know a kid in a candy store but
2:24:24right now with that
2:24:26mid-band where we're at i just
2:24:28personally for my style
2:24:30i'm not seeing a whole lot that i find
2:24:32attractive so right now we've got a vxx
2:24:34trade on
2:24:35a short put and we'll just cycle those
2:24:38week after week
2:24:39and we've got an iron condor on that i
2:24:42think it's slightly profitable but
2:24:44i might layer another one of those on
2:24:46and then there's always a uv xy put
2:24:48spread that that's just hanging out
2:24:50there when i get the right
2:24:51sort of entry um basically waiting for
2:24:54the
2:24:55xy to to have a single day where it
2:24:57actually moves
2:24:58and then i will react to that but yeah
2:25:00i'm not seeing a whole lot
2:25:02this it's just been a lower activity
2:25:04level for my options trading
2:25:06i'm a a super patient trader
2:25:10i don't force anything i mean i'm in
2:25:11this for the i'm in this for the 20-year
2:25:13track record
2:25:14and just to to be able to grow my
2:25:16capital and just
2:25:18sleep and and live my life and not worry
2:25:21i want my good rate of return
2:25:23and if that means that i have to sit in
2:25:25position sit on my hands
2:25:27and trade less then that's what i do and
2:25:29if it means i have to
2:25:31play this whole bounce around whip saw
2:25:33action in some of the other
2:25:35etf rotation strategies then i just do
2:25:37that i just move in and out and i just
2:25:39i just do what the system says so
2:25:43picture-in-picture all good
2:25:48nick says this is a long stream yes it
2:25:51is
2:25:52i had no idea we'd be going this long
2:25:54it's two and a half hours so
2:25:56um i don't know what do people do i
2:25:58don't watch live streams very often
2:26:03the only live stream that i really watch
2:26:05is i watch a ufc
2:26:06live stream um it's called morning
2:26:09combat
2:26:10i watch the morning combat live stream
2:26:12and um
2:26:15i think they typically go for about two
2:26:16to three hours but yeah i
2:26:18i don't watch watch it it's just in the
2:26:19background when i'm doing my
2:26:20spreadsheets
2:26:22um but what do we say like do we do we
2:26:25cut it off i don't want to be rude
2:26:26everybody's been so nice to show up
2:26:28and ask questions and hit the like
2:26:30button i just i don't want to just kick
2:26:32you out and go running
2:26:37i don't know we'll see i'll give it a
2:26:41few more minutes if there's more
2:26:42questions coming in i'll take some more
2:26:44questions
2:26:46is your account proprietary personal
2:26:48funds only
2:26:50or do you also trade client money
2:26:51because the mindset and risk tolerance
2:26:53between the two are enormous
2:26:54um i agree with that second part that it
2:26:57it could be
2:26:58a big difference the advantage that i
2:27:00have is that everything i say
2:27:02i trade like i'm i'm not
2:27:06doing anything with the vts community
2:27:09that i'm not doing myself so it's very
2:27:10easy for me to just
2:27:12do the exact same thing for you guys
2:27:14like that's all vts is
2:27:16i'm not some online guru and you know
2:27:18trying to
2:27:19you know market things and trying to do
2:27:22youtube ads
2:27:23just sharing what i do you want to
2:27:24participate great you want to
2:27:26you know pay me money to see the signals
2:27:28awesome if you don't
2:27:29there's so much free content you'll you
2:27:32probably won't be able to keep up with
2:27:33me i'm a workaholic so
2:27:35um i agree with that second part though
2:27:38that
2:27:39the mindset could be a little bit
2:27:40different uh to answer it no i
2:27:42don't manage any funds
2:27:46i have to be careful how i say this i i
2:27:48do also have a
2:27:50um i have my own consulting firm
2:27:54it's called prosperitis had it for years
2:27:58and i do advise um hedge funds private
2:28:02offices
2:28:03rias so there's a lot of
2:28:06a lot of client money going through my
2:28:09strategies
2:28:10but only indirectly i i just consult and
2:28:14license
2:28:14what i do um so i'm not
2:28:18actually the one managing the client
2:28:19money like i'm not the custodian i can't
2:28:21i'm not a registered advisor
2:28:23i can't act as a custodian for anybody's
2:28:24money it is just
2:28:26me trading my own capital my interactive
2:28:28brokers account
2:28:29and i email
2:28:33trade signals every single day to people
2:28:34who follow the community
2:28:36and then i do blog articles videos all
2:28:38that stuff
2:28:41so i don't know is the mindset different
2:28:43i've never really
2:28:46i've never acted as a as a custodian for
2:28:48other people's money
2:28:50i am you know certified i could do that
2:28:52i could register tomorrow and
2:28:54i have all my portfolio certifications i
2:28:56just
2:28:57i love what i do and i know
2:29:00i should probably make a video at some
2:29:02point i've been talking about a little
2:29:03bit
2:29:04why subscription model like why is why a
2:29:07subscription i get so many people like
2:29:08oh if you're so good why don't you
2:29:10manage a hedge fund
2:29:11i guess i should probably at some point
2:29:14make that video
2:29:14there's many reasons why i don't act as
2:29:17a custodian for people's capital but
2:29:20if you wanted me to give you one just
2:29:22super basic simple reason
2:29:24it's because my ideal life
2:29:28would be me living in a different
2:29:29country every three months for the rest
2:29:31of my life
2:29:32so how am i going to do that as a
2:29:36registered advisor
2:29:37in vancouver
2:29:47can you talk more about tactical vault
2:29:49during the covid crash
2:29:51you made a difficult decision to ignore
2:29:53your own signals
2:29:54have you reflected on this and what have
2:29:56you learned
2:29:58i have done a lot of reflecting on this
2:30:02and the only thing that any of us as
2:30:05traders can do
2:30:07is i would say learn from our mistakes
2:30:11but i don't consider what i did during
2:30:14the covet crash to be
2:30:15necessarily a mistake so just
2:30:18backstory obviously this person knows
2:30:21details about my community
2:30:23but back in february on the uh 24th
2:30:27of february i sent out an email
2:30:30saying that the world is basically not
2:30:33looking good
2:30:34and i was very concerned um whatever it
2:30:37was i was very concerned
2:30:40not for my performance not for the
2:30:41strategies my strategies are all
2:30:43designed to
2:30:44manage any market environment i've
2:30:47traded through
2:30:48the financial crisis i've traded through
2:30:49the flash crash i've traded through the
2:30:51european debt crisis
2:30:52i'm not at all you know portfolio
2:30:55worried
2:30:56i was worried for people and um
2:31:00so on the 28th of february i moved our
2:31:02entire portfolio to cash that's why
2:31:04if you go on the website and you look at
2:31:07the the
2:31:08results for any of those strategies
2:31:11um like you know tactical balance for
2:31:14example
2:31:15you're gonna see zero in march
2:31:19right why does it say zero i mean
2:31:23obviously it did something right
2:31:26um so why does it say zero well
2:31:29essentially it says zero because
2:31:30i moved the portfolio to cash let me
2:31:33just go full screen here
2:31:34give you something to look at instead of
2:31:37me scrambling and figuring out this live
2:31:39stream
2:31:39stuff um i moved to cash
2:31:42for the portfolio and and that remained
2:31:44from february 28th until april 13th
2:31:47that's when we were in cash across the
2:31:48board vix options contin continued
2:31:51trading
2:31:52that 20 portion of the portfolio but the
2:31:5580
2:31:56of vts we stopped trading for six weeks
2:31:58and my rationale was
2:32:00a the correlations were breaking down
2:32:02across the board
2:32:03across the world so you know i'm not
2:32:06concerned about that my strategies are
2:32:08all designed to handle it perfectly well
2:32:10but it was something it's an issue but
2:32:12the main reason was simply because
2:32:15i mean people were at that time people
2:32:17were worried about
2:32:19not only their jobs but their families
2:32:22and their livelihoods and in some cases
2:32:24they're very lives
2:32:25and so i thought
2:32:28i mean what's the harm right why not
2:32:30just move to cash give people a month
2:32:32break
2:32:33to not worry about investing let's just
2:32:35worry about taking care of our families
2:32:37and worrying about our
2:32:38you know staying safe and all that stuff
2:32:41so we moved out
2:32:43we lost nothing we handled it great
2:32:46right uh
2:32:47no no major complaints
2:32:50the problem is what what i think this
2:32:52person is getting at
2:32:54and i can only see it says last maverick
2:32:56so apologies i don't know your name
2:32:59but my guess is you were one of the
2:33:01people that asked me
2:33:02what the strategies would have done had
2:33:05we remained in
2:33:06them um that's an assumption of mine i
2:33:08don't know if that's true but i'm
2:33:10assuming that's why you're asking this
2:33:11question
2:33:14well they would have crushed it i mean i
2:33:16think if you're one of the people that
2:33:18is asking this question you know what
2:33:19the answer is the tactical volatility
2:33:21strategy would have
2:33:22absolutely crushed it and the aggressive
2:33:25all would have made
2:33:28a lot so
2:33:32while there's never anything wrong with
2:33:34not losing money during a global
2:33:36pandemic where the stock market crashed
2:33:3834
2:33:39in a matter of a week and a half there's
2:33:41nothing wrong with not losing any money
2:33:43and not suffering any drawdowns it was
2:33:45it was fantastic and that you know we
2:33:47could never look back and say oh that's
2:33:50awful right on the other hand
2:33:55you know would have been nice to catch
2:33:57that volatility i mean that's what the
2:33:58strategies are designed for and the next
2:34:00time it happens of course i'm not going
2:34:02to move to cash
2:34:04that's it just is what it is i did it
2:34:05one time in the last nine years
2:34:08i won't do it again but reflecting on it
2:34:11i don't consider it a mistake
2:34:12but i definitely agree with you that it
2:34:15was one of those moments where you
2:34:17as a trader i broke my own rules
2:34:21and typically
2:34:24you know sometimes it works out like in
2:34:26that case it's not a it's not a huge
2:34:28detriment to
2:34:29to just go flat through through the
2:34:30covid stuff that's not terrible i'm not
2:34:33regretful or anything um it would have
2:34:35been just a little blip but it again
2:34:38broke my own rules and you shouldn't do
2:34:40that i'm a systematic trader and i
2:34:41shouldn't do that so
2:34:42i have committed myself mentally going
2:34:45forward
2:34:46to i talk about trust and and
2:34:49trusting the signals and trusting
2:34:50everything and the system's designed to
2:34:52handle it we're gonna move to safety
2:34:54um that was one time in nine years where
2:34:57i
2:34:58broke my rule so not gonna do it again
2:35:02the strategies will do very very well if
2:35:04the markets crash like that again
2:35:06i i will not say i'm looking forward to
2:35:08it because
2:35:10that's people's lives i mean it's
2:35:11devastating to to see
2:35:14you know people who have strategies that
2:35:16can go long vol and can actually
2:35:18capitalize on some of those gains like
2:35:19mine can
2:35:21sometimes we have that knee-jerk
2:35:22reaction to say oh i
2:35:24i hope the world just crashes i'm gonna
2:35:26make so much money but
2:35:27i totally don't hope the world crashes
2:35:30because that is devastating to people's
2:35:32lives
2:35:32so yes if we get another crash like that
2:35:36i have no doubt my strategies will
2:35:38perform very well
2:35:40but i will feel very bad that the world
2:35:42is collapsing in front of us and real
2:35:44people are getting hurt
2:35:46so um i'm not going to say i'm looking
2:35:48forward to a market crash
2:35:49but if it does happen again no i'm not
2:35:51going to move to cash again i'm not
2:35:52going to break my own rules
2:35:54i'm uh i'd like to be able to say i'm a
2:35:57100 percent systematic trader but
2:35:59apparently i did have a moment of
2:36:00weakness and once in nine years i did
2:36:03move to cash so that won't happen again
2:36:08i listened to peak prosperity from
2:36:10january and went to cash in january
2:36:12because of the info
2:36:13yeah yeah good that's like
2:36:16there's never anything wrong with
2:36:18avoiding a crash
2:36:19you know rule number one don't lose
2:36:21money and i'm not
2:36:22i mean it is a warren buffett quote but
2:36:24i'm not saying it because he said it
2:36:27rule number one don't lose money so if
2:36:28you don't have a drawdown in the covid
2:36:30stuff
2:36:31you did awesome secondary goal would be
2:36:34to actually
2:36:35take advantage of it and that's the part
2:36:37that um
2:36:38that would have been nice
2:36:45you weren't tempted to move all cash to
2:36:47uvxy calls during the crash
2:36:50uh radaress sorry if i'm pronouncing
2:36:52that wrong
2:36:53no not at all what you're essentially
2:36:55asking me is
2:36:57can i predict the markets so
2:37:01covid crashes s b is down
2:37:05the world's burning it does appear
2:37:08like going long u v x y is the right
2:37:11play
2:37:12but the thing that you have to always
2:37:14remember
2:37:15is that's only what's happened that's
2:37:18not what's going to happen
2:37:20so anytime you say oh well look the
2:37:22price action is telling me that it's
2:37:24going down
2:37:25i'm going to load the boat on long uv xy
2:37:28well how do you know that the next day
2:37:30is not going to be the day that it
2:37:31bounces
2:37:32you're going to lose i mean it's uvxy
2:37:35it moves with a beta factor to the s p
2:37:38500 of
2:37:38of over five over five times you are
2:37:43you are short the market at a leverage
2:37:45factor
2:37:46over 500 percent
2:37:49i hope you can you know recognize
2:37:52how tiny your portfolio allocation would
2:37:55have to be
2:37:56to be safe in that situation because as
2:37:58we saw let me go
2:38:01screen share i'm getting a little better
2:38:04at this stuff
2:38:05a little better if we go screen sharing
2:38:07we actually go back
2:38:09to that let's go spx for a year
2:38:14this is an absolute v bottom so i mean
2:38:16when along this
2:38:18row along this crash are you planning to
2:38:21buy your uv xy calls like if it's here
2:38:24high fives all around if it's here
2:38:27you're
2:38:28still good but you're going to get
2:38:29whipsawed if it's down here
2:38:31you could be in a lot of trouble so no
2:38:34like
2:38:36predicting markets and you know doing
2:38:38things like that
2:38:40i don't do that if the signals tell me
2:38:42to get in it then i get in it if it
2:38:43doesn't it doesn't now at the time
2:38:45like i said it would have told me to buy
2:38:47those calls not calls but
2:38:49go long vxx and i ignored the rule
2:38:53but i'm only doing that based on my
2:38:56signals it's it's really really
2:38:58dangerous to be a discretionary trader
2:39:00in this type of market i i would i don't
2:39:03envy anybody who has to make
2:39:04discretionary decisions on trading these
2:39:07days because
2:39:08there's so much going wrong with these
2:39:11markets and there's
2:39:12it there's just traditional correlations
2:39:15breaking down and you know
2:39:17so much fiscal and monetary policy
2:39:21just intrusions into what should
2:39:23normally be a functioning market
2:39:26i don't like to do i don't like to make
2:39:28discretionary decisions anymore
2:39:30never did i've been doing this you know
2:39:31tactical for 10 years but
2:39:34i don't envy people who have to make
2:39:35that call because then
2:39:37you know the market bounces then what
2:39:39market bounces here
2:39:40goes straight up at what point do you
2:39:42take your loss
2:39:44do you think it's going to be a double
2:39:45dip you hang on too long what do you do
2:39:48you need signals to tell you those
2:39:49things because we as people
2:39:51we are too emotional and we won't know
2:39:53what to do
2:39:54so
2:39:57no i didn't i didn't do that but like
2:39:59you said i mean you obviously you'd want
2:40:01to scale it to
2:40:02to risk size and all that stuff
2:40:08phone lines were jammed in march at td
2:40:09ameritrade yeah i'm not surprised
2:40:11that was a scary scary time i mean it
2:40:13was really really
2:40:15really it still is right i mean how many
2:40:18of you
2:40:19honestly don't believe that that exact
2:40:21same thing could happen again
2:40:24i don't know i think we're going to be
2:40:25scarred i was trading back in the
2:40:27financial crisis and the flash crash
2:40:29and i can tell you it was it was years
2:40:32before we we we lost that sort of
2:40:36shell shock attitude you know that you
2:40:38know ptsd
2:40:40feeling of the markets crashing on us
2:40:44i think kovid oops now my video's going
2:40:48to be demonetized
2:40:49um now because of covid we are
2:40:53we're we're right in it again we've
2:40:55we've been you know
2:40:57we we've got ptsd we we're gonna see
2:41:00fear everywhere and now it's our job to
2:41:03be
2:41:03tactical and trusting the strategies now
2:41:06more than ever
2:41:07because if we allow our emotions to
2:41:10creep in
2:41:11look at the world you know we're going
2:41:13to make bad decisions
2:41:14if we allow our emotions to dictate what
2:41:16we do so i for one i can't tell you what
2:41:19to do but i for one will be
2:41:21i mean i'm always tactical like i said
2:41:2399
2:41:24minus covid i'm systematic but now i'm
2:41:28i'm a hundred percent i'm all in there's
2:41:29no way
2:41:30i'm going to deviate now um
2:41:33i'm an emotional person just like
2:41:34everybody i mean i've been doing this a
2:41:36long time but
2:41:38i i make mistakes too if i let my
2:41:39emotions get the better of me
2:41:41so no this we're in we're in a serious
2:41:45time where it's going to be very hard
2:41:47for certain investors
2:41:49to enter the market simply because of
2:41:51what happened
2:41:52so it's too bad it's really too bad when
2:41:57when the world breaks like that it's not
2:42:00good
2:42:04for what it's worth discretionary
2:42:06traders vastly outperformed systematic
2:42:08algo in 2020 um i don't think you could
2:42:12quantify that
2:42:14i'm not trying to be argumentative here
2:42:16but i'm not sure that you could quantify
2:42:17that
2:42:18do you know the rate of return of
2:42:22discretionary traders in 2020
2:42:24because i don't i don't know where to
2:42:26even get that data well there is no data
2:42:28how would we possibly know
2:42:29so if you mean you which is likely what
2:42:32you mean or maybe you and your circle of
2:42:34friends
2:42:35that's awesome i mean if you if you're a
2:42:38discretionary trader
2:42:392020 was a potentially very good year
2:42:42for you
2:42:43because whenever you see massive swings
2:42:46like that like let's say
2:42:49everybody's going to have a different
2:42:50emotional reaction to something like
2:42:52covet right there were people before it
2:42:55happened that are already predisposed
2:42:57to be fearing market crashes
2:43:00if you're one of those people and you're
2:43:02a discretionary trader you might have
2:43:03been perfectly
2:43:05allocated to take full advantage of that
2:43:07crash
2:43:09then there's other people who are just
2:43:11predisposed to always
2:43:13thinking well you just buy the dip you
2:43:15just buy the dip the markets always
2:43:16recover let's just
2:43:17you know it's bad yep it's down 34 but
2:43:20we're just gonna buy the dip
2:43:22if you're that type of person you
2:43:24crushed it in 2020
2:43:26right i mean just murdered the markets
2:43:28in 2020
2:43:29and that's when like you're saying
2:43:32discretionary trading can win out
2:43:35i can't confirm what the performance of
2:43:37discretionary trading was because that's
2:43:39an unknowable
2:43:41but i'd say in the long run you're going
2:43:43to be better off systematic
2:43:44but you might actually systematic might
2:43:46actually keep you out of some
2:43:48opportunities
2:43:49like if i was trading through covet and
2:43:51i didn't stop and i didn't halt my
2:43:53strategies
2:43:54it would have taken me a few weeks after
2:43:56that v bottom bounce to get back into
2:43:57the market because i have to wait for
2:43:59volatility to
2:44:00sort of go down a little bit before i
2:44:02get the green light to re-enter
2:44:04whereas a discretionary trader who's
2:44:06just by the dip everything
2:44:07they might have beaten me to the punch
2:44:09and they might have got in earlier
2:44:10that's always possible i don't think
2:44:12it's an either or like this is
2:44:14definitely better than that
2:44:15like you said there's going to be years
2:44:17where one does substantially better than
2:44:19the other
2:44:19but i think long term
2:44:22um i think you should probably do your
2:44:24best to remove as many
2:44:26variables and as many emotions from the
2:44:28process as you possibly can
2:44:34how long do you intend to run vts
2:44:38my life i mean again it's just my
2:44:40portfolio i
2:44:41as long as i have the bandwidth in my
2:44:43life to to share what i do with people
2:44:46i'll continue doing it um i have
2:44:48absolutely no plans to stop
2:44:54what else are we looking at here
2:44:57excellent stream
2:44:58set up love your videos great wow that's
2:45:00that's so nice
2:45:02i love hearing the kind comments and i
2:45:04really really do appreciate them i just
2:45:08i gotta be honest i'm having a hard time
2:45:10believing
2:45:12the sincerity to be honest i have to i
2:45:14have to rewatch this
2:45:17i'm not good at this stuff
2:45:21i'm at my best when i'm by myself alone
2:45:24with my thoughts in front of a
2:45:25spreadsheet
2:45:26that's when i do my best work so this
2:45:30this live stream stuff is it's going to
2:45:32be a massive personality change
2:45:34required
2:45:38pro golf seems fun did you enjoy it no i
2:45:41did not
2:45:41enjoy it i loved golf i loved amateur
2:45:44golf
2:45:45i i had a very successful amateur career
2:45:48very
2:45:49very fortunate you know i but i i worked
2:45:51my ass off let's be honest
2:45:53um but yeah i i absolutely love the game
2:45:57of golf i love everything about it i
2:45:58love the
2:45:59the challenge that it provides the
2:46:01difficulty the
2:46:02the the solitude it
2:46:05draws me in but also the social aspect
2:46:07of playing with other people
2:46:09i mean where else can you you know lock
2:46:11somebody down for four hours and have
2:46:13good conversations
2:46:15right when was the last time you had a
2:46:16four-hour conversation with somebody
2:46:20while you were doing something
2:46:22interesting you know golf's amazing
2:46:24i don't know why everybody in the world
2:46:25doesn't golf but
2:46:27the problem with my golf career and the
2:46:29reason why it failed as a professional
2:46:31and i was so successful as an amateur
2:46:33is when i was playing for myself as an
2:46:35amateur i was what's called a mastery
2:46:38oriented person where i am just
2:46:40golfing for myself mastering my skills
2:46:44that's all i'm doing the second i turned
2:46:46pro i had a lot of sponsors i had
2:46:48i mean they're giving me you know sixty
2:46:50thousand dollars a year to pay
2:46:52all my expenses and i you know buy me a
2:46:54car and buy all my clothes and
2:46:55everything
2:46:56um it got to me it really did get to me
2:46:59and i started i shifted from a mastery
2:47:01focus
2:47:02which was just for me to what's called
2:47:04an ego driven focus
2:47:05which is external things like worrying
2:47:08about what people are going to think of
2:47:09me worrying about
2:47:10what sponsors are going to think of me
2:47:11worrying about you know
2:47:13there now there's 10 000 people watching
2:47:15instead of 100 people watching
2:47:17um ego driven things and
2:47:21yeah it wore me down and i failed i
2:47:23played pro golf for five years and i did
2:47:24it for the wrong reasons and i was had
2:47:26the wrong focus and i
2:47:27i failed so pro golf was not fun for me
2:47:30but golf itself
2:47:31is amazing i love it i'd recommend
2:47:33everyone in the world take up golf
2:47:35um and that you know mastery versus ego
2:47:39it applies to trading as well one of the
2:47:41one of the very best lessons that pro
2:47:43golf taught me with my investing
2:47:45is always be mastery oriented that
2:47:48that's why you don't ever see me
2:47:50doing hard sell stuff you don't ever see
2:47:52me doing you know markety type things
2:47:54you know gimmicky things
2:47:56um i am just trying to master my own
2:47:58craft for me
2:48:00and i know that if i do that then not
2:48:02only will my portfolio benefit
2:48:04but things like money things like
2:48:07recognition things like
2:48:09social media presence those happen as a
2:48:12result
2:48:12of mastering a craft and i won't make
2:48:15that mistake again
2:48:16i won't ever in my business do things
2:48:18like i did in golf
2:48:20where i just played pro golf as a
2:48:24totally different person it just wasn't
2:48:25me it wasn't for me
2:48:26it wasn't for the right reasons and no i
2:48:28i didn't enjoy it
2:48:30i'm a super ultra competitive person too
2:48:33and when i see myself fail
2:48:35it's hard i mean it was hard personally
2:48:37when you're you know you're under
2:48:39achieving it was tough
2:48:40so um first couple years were fun the
2:48:44travel was amazing i love the travel
2:48:46but yeah
2:48:56well there be what is that there'll be a
2:48:58recording of the stream
2:48:59i don't know that's one of the reasons
2:49:01why i jumped on this thing just sort of
2:49:03inviting people to come by i was
2:49:06basically going to be doing a technical
2:49:09just a technical setup just make sure
2:49:11the sound works make sure the comments
2:49:12work
2:49:14when i click finish
2:49:17end broadcast i don't know what's going
2:49:19to happen
2:49:21i'm going to find out i hope i hope that
2:49:23it has actually
2:49:24recorded something although i'm not
2:49:26gonna upload we we've been doing this
2:49:28for three hours
2:49:30i'm not gonna upload a three hour stream
2:49:32am i or is
2:49:33anybody interested in what i'm talking
2:49:35about today
2:49:36i don't know i don't know what i'll do
2:49:40i mean maybe okay so if it records a
2:49:42sort of a local file somewhere on my
2:49:44computer or maybe on youtube
2:49:46what i could potentially do is try to
2:49:50mine through
2:49:51you know three hours of babbling from me
2:49:53there's probably five or ten minutes in
2:49:55there that might be interesting for
2:49:56someone
2:49:57so maybe i will edit certain pieces out
2:50:00and try to make it into a video
2:50:02or i will take notes and
2:50:06i will actually um remake
2:50:09certain parts that somebody asked me a
2:50:11really interesting question and i
2:50:12i whiffed on it in my live answer but i
2:50:14want to try again in another
2:50:16i might do that but um
2:50:26can it edit down please upload i'll see
2:50:29what it looks like on the back end i
2:50:30have no idea
2:50:32can't imagine people are gonna although
2:50:34you guys are here i mean i don't know
2:50:36maybe maybe people want to listen to me
2:50:38ramble
2:50:40i think one of the reasons i talk about
2:50:42this a lot with my girlfriend um one of
2:50:44the reasons that i ramble so much
2:50:46is because i spend so much time alone so
2:50:48there's a lot of things kicking around
2:50:50in my head
2:50:51and sometimes i do it to her as well
2:50:54you know we'll go the whole day i won't
2:50:56say anything to anybody i'm just on my
2:50:58spreadsheet doing my work
2:50:59and then when she opens her mouth at
2:51:01dinner and starts talking to me
2:51:02i just like you know my whole day of
2:51:05thoughts just comes out so
2:51:07um that's that might be what these
2:51:10streams end up being it might be a
2:51:12three-hour stream where there's really
2:51:14only 45 minutes of
2:51:16of anything terribly meaningful but um
2:51:20we'll see we'll see this is a
2:51:24this is a complete experiment totally
2:51:26out of character for me
2:51:30see where it goes i actually prepared a
2:51:32slide let me see if it works
2:51:36five minute break i prepared this one
2:51:37where i have a little counter
2:51:39where i can go make myself a coffee but
2:51:41um
2:51:43i think i still got a little bit
2:51:48yeah i seriously thought this was going
2:51:51to be
2:51:5110 minutes so this is this is a surprise
2:51:56and yeah 80 82 people watching i'm
2:51:59humbled thank you so much
2:52:00that's amazing
2:52:10behind the stage reflections yeah well
2:52:13that's important i mean
2:52:15how can you grow if you can't if you
2:52:18can't be introspective
2:52:19and can't acknowledge mistakes and can't
2:52:22can't make plans to do better in the
2:52:24future so i mean i've been through a lot
2:52:26in my life and i can
2:52:28i'm not i'm not trash talking myself
2:52:30when i
2:52:31when i say my golf career failed it did
2:52:33fail but that doesn't mean i didn't
2:52:35learn
2:52:35an infinite number of lessons along the
2:52:37way i mean it's just
2:52:39the most valuable thing i've ever done
2:52:40in my life and it set me up for an
2:52:43investment career that
2:52:45i just i'm so much better equipped to
2:52:47handle everything now
2:52:49as opposed to what would have happened
2:52:50and maybe if i succeeded
2:52:52i wouldn't have learned those lessons
2:52:53and i would have failed anyway because
2:52:55the the truth is
2:52:56most people who embark on a professional
2:52:58sport of any kind
2:52:59and and bear with me i'm being very
2:53:02liberal with the word sport because i
2:53:03know golf is not a sport
2:53:05um but if you embark on any professional
2:53:08sport
2:53:10the the odds of failure is so very high
2:53:12i mean
2:53:1399.999 percent of people who try
2:53:16will end up you know failing they can't
2:53:18make enough to feed their families so
2:53:19they end up quitting
2:53:21if i was more successful which i was
2:53:24certainly as an amateur i was certainly
2:53:26on a path to being very successful i was
2:53:28you know for for a good three year
2:53:29period i was the top ranked player in
2:53:31canada so
2:53:32i was on my i was on my way but um
2:53:36if i would have succeeded at a slightly
2:53:37higher level maybe i wouldn't have
2:53:39learned any of those lessons
2:53:40and then i would have quit golf and just
2:53:43been a golf teacher or something i don't
2:53:45know what i would have done but
2:53:47i just i learned so much from the
2:53:48experience that i can now be
2:53:50introspective i can learn from my
2:53:51mistakes and i can apply it to a new
2:53:53career
2:53:54and i've been doing this for 15 years
2:53:55now investing
2:53:57golf ended in 2005. i that's another
2:54:00lifetime ago
2:54:01but i mean the lessons i learned i still
2:54:04carry with me
2:54:08off to three months jimmer g says just
2:54:11finished packing off
2:54:13three months french polynesia wow
2:54:15fingers crossed
2:54:16there's strong wi-fi yeah that's one of
2:54:19my concerns too
2:54:20as a traveler is the wi-fi tanzania in
2:54:23the summer
2:54:24travel trading life yep me and you both
2:54:27we're
2:54:27we're same mindset right there um
2:54:30there's
2:54:32there's so many places in the world that
2:54:35they're just amazing and for my style
2:54:37and it sounds like this gym or g
2:54:40um thanks for the comment three months
2:54:42right that's my style three months i'm
2:54:44not a tourist
2:54:45i like to go somewhere rent an airbnb
2:54:48and live there for three months and
2:54:50actually experience the culture and
2:54:51experience everything about it and
2:54:53maybe learn a little bit of the language
2:54:55and set myself up so if i love it i can
2:54:57come back two years later and
2:54:59do it again that's what i like so i like
2:55:02your style three months
2:55:03that's great yeah i have plans to travel
2:55:07a lot this year as well
2:55:08that wi-fi concern though it's real i
2:55:11mean i i run a business where
2:55:14nine years i've not missed a day i can't
2:55:17miss a day
2:55:18so i i do have to be a little bit
2:55:21careful where i go and where i stay and
2:55:23that's why i always stay you know right
2:55:24in the heart of downtown and i make sure
2:55:26i've got you know seven backup plans for
2:55:29internet cafes and all that thing
2:55:31in case something goes wrong make sure
2:55:32there's 24 hours a day internet cafes
2:55:35that i can i can duck off to
2:55:37yeah it's a big concern probably in the
2:55:40next three to four years i'm gonna
2:55:41buy a boat and it's always been my dream
2:55:45to live on a boat for a year so i'll buy
2:55:47a boat
2:55:47say in january or something in the
2:55:49mediterranean live on it for a year and
2:55:51then sell it at the end of the year just
2:55:53get that experience and then move on
2:55:55and the obviously the big concern of
2:55:57that that is
2:55:58internet right what am i going to do
2:56:00obviously i would want to stay close to
2:56:02shore
2:56:02but um i also have this idea that
2:56:05how cool would it be to do streams on a
2:56:08boat or
2:56:09if i'm in you know monaco or something
2:56:12or if i'm in greece or croatia
2:56:14that there are people in both the bts
2:56:16community but also
2:56:18on social media asset managers i could
2:56:20do interviews that'd be cool
2:56:22you know do little meetups for vts
2:56:24that'd be awesome so
2:56:26my primary concern is is wi-fi
2:56:30yeah i can relate to that
2:56:37what is the best volatility stock to
2:56:39micro scalp
2:56:40day trade cb improvements thank you for
2:56:43the question
2:56:47i could ramble about this one all day
2:56:49i'll try to be super succinct here
2:56:52there are no volatility stocks they're
2:56:54not stocks
2:56:56i'm going to assume that you just i mean
2:56:58the semantics aside right you know it's
2:57:00not stocks you know it's based on vix
2:57:02futures and
2:57:03um it moves based on an underlying index
2:57:06the spvx str index
2:57:08so you don't mean like when you're
2:57:11saying micro
2:57:12scalp day trade that
2:57:15worries me because it that might imply
2:57:18and of course this is super informal and
2:57:20i have no idea what your actual point is
2:57:21but
2:57:22it might imply that you think buying and
2:57:26selling and the volume of the products
2:57:28is actually dictating your scalping
2:57:30ability
2:57:30and if that's what you're saying i would
2:57:32say no you
2:57:34definitely want to stick to actual
2:57:36stocks and indexes that
2:57:37are influenced by volume the vxx and uv
2:57:41xy
2:57:42they are not influenced by volume it's
2:57:44not a supply and demand product
2:57:46so it's entirely based on an underlying
2:57:49index and a methodology of tracking vix
2:57:51futures
2:57:52and you can't i mean aside from the i
2:57:55think it's going to go up so i buy or i
2:57:57think it's going
2:57:57down and sell aside from the binary you
2:58:00can't
2:58:01you can't do intraday predictions it
2:58:03just doesn't work that way
2:58:04so not a stock
2:58:08oh wait somebody said here may be
2:58:10correcting me
2:58:11thought you were looking for a volatile
2:58:13stock let me just go up in
2:58:15best volatility stock volatile stock
2:58:18sorry if you meant you're looking for
2:58:20the most volatile stocks
2:58:22so that that makes more sense so now
2:58:24that when you're scalping
2:58:25you can actually get some moves
2:58:30got a punt on that question because i
2:58:31don't trade that way um i'm not a day
2:58:33trader
2:58:34i don't rely on technical analysis at
2:58:36all and i
2:58:38don't i know very little about stocks
2:58:40like actual stocks you could
2:58:42the most volatile ones well we talked
2:58:44about gamestop right gamestop was up 55
2:58:47today that seems like a pretty good
2:58:49stock to scalp hopefully we're on the
2:58:51right side of it
2:58:52but i don't focus on those types of
2:58:54things i focus on things that i can
2:58:56control as many variables as possible
2:58:59that's what my investing is about it is
2:59:01just simply i don't know what's going to
2:59:02happen tomorrow
2:59:03but i do know with reasonable accuracy
2:59:06that i have a better than 50 50
2:59:09statistical chance to be on the right
2:59:11side of those trades
2:59:12because i've done my homework and i've
2:59:14mined all the data from the past
2:59:15and i know how the markets move in
2:59:17certain volatility ranges
2:59:19that's what i do right it's just a
2:59:21preponderance of volatility statistics
2:59:24that's all it is
2:59:31what are your thoughts on more
2:59:32speculative investments or commodities
2:59:34like gold silver oil bitcoin marijuana
2:59:36uranium corn etc
2:59:39i'm guessing i'm gonna gonna get a lot
2:59:42of these types of questions because i've
2:59:43already answered that
2:59:44i feel like two or three times earlier
2:59:46in this stream
2:59:48um
2:59:52i'd be wary to call them investments
2:59:55that's the first thing i'd say
2:59:57you did say speculative so that's fine
3:00:00um
3:00:02the things that you're talking about are
3:00:05are very difficult to quantify right so
3:00:08i've already talked about bitcoin today
3:00:10of course it's
3:00:10it's what i call the greater full
3:00:12investment not an insult that's the
3:00:14economic term
3:00:16um so let's say marijuana for example
3:00:21i'm sure there are certain patterns and
3:00:23certain metrics that you could gather
3:00:25and it would help you better navigate
3:00:28the the marijuana
3:00:29space right you could learn as much as
3:00:31you can about that space
3:00:33and you could become a better trader of
3:00:36that
3:00:37sector the problem is there are still
3:00:41just way too many variables there are
3:00:43things that are just
3:00:44unknown and things that can shock that
3:00:46market
3:00:47and how can you account for all of those
3:00:50variables
3:00:51so one of the reasons i love volatility
3:00:54trading so much is because
3:00:56i have extensive data and it's very
3:01:00it's not volatile it's very predictable
3:01:03it's consistent the volatility metrics
3:01:05that i see today
3:01:06are the exact same metrics that we saw
3:01:09in 2011
3:01:11the covid crash flagged even though the
3:01:13absolute levels of the market and the
3:01:15levels of the stocks and all of it is
3:01:17totally different
3:01:18right the s p now is at 3 800 it was way
3:01:21below that back then the volatility
3:01:24levels
3:01:24are the same during covet crash as they
3:01:27were in the european debt crisis
3:01:29can you say the same thing about
3:01:31marijuana no because regulations
3:01:33different laws are different
3:01:35you know the the maturity of the market
3:01:37changes
3:01:38so while you can become better at those
3:01:40things that you re
3:01:42that list that you mentioned you can
3:01:43definitely become better and i would
3:01:45encourage you to research and
3:01:46do your homework and get your head down
3:01:49and and do the work
3:01:51you have to understand that in those
3:01:53commodity sectors
3:01:55there's always going to be unknowns
3:01:56there's always going to be shocks
3:01:58there's always going to be things that
3:01:59take you by surprise no matter how
3:02:00knowledgeable you are you're gonna get
3:02:02surprised sometimes
3:02:04and um it's pretty rare that i get
3:02:06surprised by anything in the volatility
3:02:08space because it's so established and
3:02:10and you know it's very consistent period
3:02:13to period
3:02:17you can't get your head around all the
3:02:18investment areas absolutely true you you
3:02:21have to specialize in certain things
3:02:23so maybe you're a specialist of
3:02:24marijuana stocks i don't know
3:02:26but you can't ever fully master it
3:02:28because it's not a developed market yet
3:02:31but yeah i would say narrow your focus
3:02:33don't you know uranium
3:02:35marijuana bitcoin gold silver come on
3:02:37let's let's pick one
3:02:38and try to just nail down a real
3:02:42profitable system for trading one of
3:02:43those
3:02:47do you know the average decline of vxx
3:02:50over a year
3:02:51well i can show you what um
3:02:55what the average decline factors are
3:02:57sure
3:02:58let me make sure i'm on a screen share
3:03:00here no i wasn't
3:03:02that would have been a mistake i'll do
3:03:04no picture in picture
3:03:06so hopefully you're seeing this i have
3:03:08to minimize it and maximize it just to
3:03:10make sure you're seeing this
3:03:13so where's my page
3:03:17so you said vxx right so
3:03:20here's a little bit of data for you for
3:03:21vxx the average
3:03:24daily decline of the vxx is
3:03:27minus 0.238 percent
3:03:31per day so what that looks like is this
3:03:34is a chart of the vxx
3:03:35this blue line is a logarithmic chart of
3:03:38the vxx going back to the launch of vix
3:03:40futures
3:03:41in march 2004 that's what it looks like
3:03:44and this red line is a regression line
3:03:47decaying
3:03:48at minus 2.38 percent per day and it
3:03:51of course it arrives at the exact same
3:03:54point you can see 1679.
3:03:56so this is one day decay 2.38 this is a
3:03:59five day decay
3:04:00so every week on average the vxx decays
3:04:02minus 1.186 percent
3:04:06every five days every 21 days on a
3:04:09monthly is minus 4.887 so what that
3:04:12looks like on a monthly
3:04:14is this so there's the regression of
3:04:16that decay factor
3:04:18arriving at the same point you know
3:04:22two decades later um i don't have the
3:04:25yearly but what i could do
3:04:26is i'll take a note of this question and
3:04:29the next time i do a live stream
3:04:31i will have a let's say
3:04:35uh a 90 day and then i will also
3:04:39include a an annual and we can have the
3:04:42regression of all of them so i mean we
3:04:43have the
3:04:44sp vix str index i've got that data got
3:04:47the uv xy
3:04:48you know uvxy decay factor tvx it's
3:04:51it's delisted now but we can we can dive
3:04:54into that in a live stream if if people
3:04:56are interested in that
3:04:58but um annual for about a year you're
3:05:00looking at an
3:05:01average decay of about you know 50 to 55
3:05:04percent give or take
3:05:05um and that's going to be arithmetic so
3:05:08geometric compounding it'll be a little
3:05:09bit higher than that
3:05:15i was in namibia last year and visited
3:05:17the world's largest uranium mine how
3:05:19interesting would that be western
3:05:22companies selling all their mines to the
3:05:23chinese government
3:05:24yeah the chinese have have really been
3:05:28been buying up a lot of commodities
3:05:29around the world
3:05:32that's the thing like you can look at
3:05:34these things and you can look at these
3:05:35macro events
3:05:36and i totally agree that it might help
3:05:39it might
3:05:40strongly help your trading but again
3:05:42there's it just feels like there's a lot
3:05:44of unknown variables there you know on
3:05:46those markets that
3:05:48you just feel like anything could happen
3:05:49and i don't feel that way with my
3:05:51trading
3:05:51i never feel uneasy i'm just
3:05:55nine years i just i feel totally like
3:05:57i've got a handle on it
3:05:58i've got enough data and enough
3:06:00understanding i've been doing it long
3:06:01enough
3:06:02i'm not going to get floored by anything
3:06:04nothing's going to surprise me
3:06:06but and i'm i'm saying this is someone
3:06:08who's never traded uranium but
3:06:10or marijuana or bitcoin um
3:06:13it just feels like there's a lot of
3:06:14variables there so
3:06:20asks uh a pearson asks this is what
3:06:24you're losing
3:06:24in that position the decay yeah that's
3:06:26what it looks like if you would just
3:06:29decay the vxx since vix futures launched
3:06:32on march 26
3:06:332004 that's what it looks like it's
3:06:35pretty ugly picture you know
3:06:37that's the volatility products but the
3:06:39right way to look at that
3:06:40is not wow we should just short with
3:06:42both hands you just you know just
3:06:44blindly short this thing no
3:06:46it's not the right way to look at it vxx
3:06:49is an insurance product
3:06:50and if you were to plot you know rolling
3:06:5430-day put options on the s p
3:06:56500 the chart would look exactly the
3:06:58same
3:06:59that's what insurance products look like
3:07:01they decay if it didn't decay over time
3:07:04then everyone in the world would would
3:07:06hold long volatility
3:07:07and hedge their portfolio all the time
3:07:10if there was no decay factor
3:07:12and no downside to holding it then
3:07:14everyone in the world would be fully
3:07:15hedged at all times
3:07:17and the markets would cease to exist as
3:07:19we know them that's not how markets work
3:07:21so there has to be you know there has to
3:07:24be a decay factor
3:07:25so the vxx yeah it looks like an ugly
3:07:27chart and it does provide opportunities
3:07:29to trade it
3:07:30on the short side if you manage capital
3:07:33and
3:07:34check your allocation sizing and and you
3:07:36really know what you're doing there are
3:07:37opportunities
3:07:38there but the bottom line is it's an
3:07:40insurance product and it has to decay
3:07:42by by very not design it has to
3:07:45if it didn't the markets would cease to
3:07:47exist that's not how it works
3:07:56have you ever done a study on what is
3:07:57the largest decline of the s p
3:07:59500 for any given vix or vts barometer
3:08:02level on the previous
3:08:03day yeah yeah it's buried in
3:08:06spreadsheets somewhere
3:08:08um i'll take a note of this question and
3:08:10i'll dig it up and you can
3:08:12can either remind me in an email or the
3:08:16next time we do a stream you can hit me
3:08:18up and
3:08:18hopefully i've added it to this the
3:08:20problem is
3:08:21like i said i've been doing this for so
3:08:23many years that i have spreadsheets that
3:08:25crash my computer at this point
3:08:28so um
3:08:31it's kind of it's one of those
3:08:32situations where
3:08:35i have so much i have that data i mean
3:08:37it rings a bell but
3:08:39i basically i don't want to sift through
3:08:40all my spreadsheets
3:08:42and and make everybody in the stream
3:08:44watch so what i probably should do
3:08:46and hopefully i'm not totally dodging
3:08:48your question here but
3:08:50i should probably have a little
3:08:51checklist of things that people ask that
3:08:53i want to revisit at another time and
3:08:54this would be one of them so
3:08:56sorry about that
3:09:02i'm getting the feeling that if i
3:09:04continue sitting here
3:09:07people will keep asking questions and
3:09:14i'm i don't know what these live streams
3:09:17are supposed to be i have no idea
3:09:19i don't know where they're going um
3:09:23but i i had the idea that maybe they
3:09:25would be structured some way so maybe i
3:09:27would do a little intro i'd do a little
3:09:29show
3:09:30i'd open it up to questions and
3:09:31hopefully the questions are
3:09:33specific enough to what i was talking
3:09:34about that it would be sort of a nice
3:09:37bookended show
3:09:38starting to get the impression that's
3:09:40not how this is going to work so i don't
3:09:42know whether i should just
3:09:43bounce around like i am or whether i
3:09:45should go through
3:09:46and try to you know
3:09:50try to figure out which question is
3:09:52related to which one and maybe answer
3:09:54them in a sequence
3:09:57i'm struggling a little bit here because
3:09:58the comment section is skipping
3:10:00on me so it'll freeze for a while and i
3:10:03don't know if
3:10:04i'm even live anymore on youtube and
3:10:06then it'll just have this big jump where
3:10:08i miss
3:10:09you know 10 questions so
3:10:13trying to manage as best i can as an
3:10:15absolute
3:10:16rookie in this business this live stream
3:10:19business
3:10:21it's catching on though i mean one of
3:10:23the reasons is i just love to challenge
3:10:25myself i'm i'm a super competitive
3:10:27person
3:10:28and i i'm more competitive with myself
3:10:31than anything else i just
3:10:33i have this drive to always do things
3:10:36that are
3:10:36hard right i don't know if that's a
3:10:38trope that you know
3:10:40psychologists will will say but we
3:10:43really do need to do hard things
3:10:46so um that one of the reasons i'm doing
3:10:49this is just it's catching on a lot in
3:10:51this world so if you're watching this
3:10:53maybe you should try it as well maybe if
3:10:54you've got an expertise if you've got
3:10:56something to say
3:10:57you should do it as well and it's very
3:10:59hard
3:11:00this is this is really really tough
3:11:03um but yeah
3:11:06i don't know how i'm going to go with
3:11:08this speaking of live streaming do i
3:11:10know peter schiff i'm aware of peter
3:11:12schiff
3:11:13i don't know peter schiff it's possible
3:11:16that
3:11:17at some point i've criticized one of his
3:11:19tweets and maybe he engaged back with me
3:11:23um but yeah i'm i'll say i'm well aware
3:11:27of peter schiff's work
3:11:28yeah and i guess i said that kind of
3:11:32condescendingly i shouldn't have done
3:11:33that
3:11:34um let's say i agree with half of what
3:11:37he says
3:11:39and half of it leaves something to be
3:11:42desired i think
3:11:46this way we have the option to to attend
3:11:48the live streams relevant yeah exactly
3:11:51great point
3:11:51that's what i wanted to do i wanted to
3:11:53say look i'm going to blast something
3:11:55out on twitter and you know to the bts
3:11:57community i'm going to say
3:11:59um today we are going to be talking
3:12:01about
3:12:02the difference between the vix mean and
3:12:05the median and the mode
3:12:06right and i'm gonna make a show about
3:12:08that right so i'll go through my data
3:12:11i'll um of course i'll try to remember
3:12:14to do the picture in picture
3:12:16i will go to my spreadsheet
3:12:20which i will i will have prepared a
3:12:22little bit of a show for people
3:12:25and i will say you know what's the
3:12:26difference between the vix mean
3:12:29the vix median why isn't this loading
3:12:33and the vix mode right and i and i can
3:12:35maybe prepare a little bit of a show
3:12:37based on this
3:12:39where i'm just going to be rambling for
3:12:40a while and then
3:12:42afterwards i would open it up to
3:12:44questions
3:12:46and then hopefully at least for a few
3:12:49minutes
3:12:49it would be questions relevant to the
3:12:51show i just put on
3:12:53and then later on we can talk about you
3:12:54know gold and peter schiff and
3:12:57the end of the world and whatnot but uh
3:13:05yeah exactly um nitro str4 that's
3:13:09i think i think you hit the nail on the
3:13:10head there people will ask questions as
3:13:13long as i'm sitting here
3:13:16you know if if the tables were turned
3:13:18and i was on a live stream
3:13:20with a professional golfer right well
3:13:23i'm i'm a professional golfer so that's
3:13:25a bad example
3:13:26um i'm super interested in physics um
3:13:29you know like
3:13:30um astrophysics especially if i
3:13:33had an opportunity to be on a stream
3:13:35with with one of the physicists that i
3:13:37like
3:13:38um i would ask questions all day long
3:13:41until they literally
3:13:42shut the stream off so it's possible
3:13:46that we're experiencing a little bit of
3:13:47the same here i didn't think i'd be here
3:13:49for
3:13:50three hours and 13 minutes on one coffee
3:13:54one coffee i didn't even have to use my
3:13:57thing
3:14:04i'm super engaging with the comment
3:14:06section i mean thanks for that i
3:14:08i feel like i'm not i feel like i need
3:14:10to really work on that that
3:14:13i'm missing a lot here and some of the
3:14:15questions i i'll ramble on for five
3:14:17minutes and some of them i'll
3:14:18you know i'll punt on the question and
3:14:19say you know i'll get you next time
3:14:22i really have to work on that i want
3:14:24everybody to make sure that they feel
3:14:27that you know that they're
3:14:30a that they're having fun i hope it's
3:14:32not super boring
3:14:34maybe i'll give you a view
3:14:37but b i mean maybe learn something get
3:14:39your questions answered
3:14:40right that's that's the point of this
3:14:42engage
3:14:46different from most of my most youtube
3:14:48investing channels
3:14:50i hope so and i again i some of the
3:14:52things i say might sound condescending
3:14:54i'm open-minded i'm never against people
3:14:56trying to make their money
3:14:58i mean if i i've never stand in the way
3:15:01of a man to try to make money right i'm
3:15:03on the side of people who do work
3:15:05whether i believe in the ethics of what
3:15:07these youtubers in the financial
3:15:08industry are doing
3:15:09i mean that's that's my own thing that's
3:15:12i have to deal with that myself
3:15:13but i don't mean to sound too
3:15:15condescending i just
3:15:18i don't see that much i don't see that
3:15:20many people
3:15:21genuinely trying to help and the few
3:15:24people that i do
3:15:26i will promote them as much as i
3:15:29possibly can because it's
3:15:31there are very few things in life more
3:15:33important than investing
3:15:35i mean really honestly i know i'm not
3:15:37child like curing cancer here
3:15:39but helping people grow their retirement
3:15:42funds
3:15:43is not only super rewarding work for me
3:15:46but it's also really important i mean
3:15:48it opens if you can get financial
3:15:50success and i don't mean hey i'm going
3:15:52to double your account in six months
3:15:54not all that talking about finding a
3:15:56place
3:15:57where you can be confident that you can
3:15:59navigate the next 10 years
3:16:01maybe there's periods you didn't win as
3:16:03much as you wanted to win
3:16:06but you can feel confident that you're
3:16:08growing towards something
3:16:09i feel like that's one of the most
3:16:11important jobs in the world so
3:16:13i i'm probably overly negative about
3:16:17the other things that i see but
3:16:18youtube's just a dumpster fire when it
3:16:20comes to
3:16:22investing stuff i just
3:16:25and that's why people like david lincoln
3:16:27right the short ball show vix crush
3:16:29where however you want to find him i've
3:16:30gone over it several times
3:16:32that's why i just have so much respect
3:16:33for people like that
3:16:35that just working so hard to do
3:16:38something and legitimately
3:16:40trying to help people i mean have you
3:16:42ever seen him do
3:16:44marketing videos and no you ever seen
3:16:48i guarantee you david lincoln he's been
3:16:50trading for
3:16:5125 years he's been an actual market
3:16:53maker he's been an
3:16:54educated sibo market maker i guarantee
3:16:57you he's had bigger wins
3:16:59than than all of us right
3:17:02you ever see him make a video about here
3:17:04i made watch me make 42
3:17:07in five minutes he would never make that
3:17:09video
3:17:10and that's that's one of the reasons why
3:17:13you you have to gravitate towards the
3:17:15people that are doing genuine work
3:17:17and you really have to try to block out
3:17:19the this social media
3:17:21environment it's very toxic out there
3:17:26do you have any favorite books fiction
3:17:28or non-fiction
3:17:30um this might come as a surprise to some
3:17:32of you but i don't actually read books
3:17:35um i just don't have the bandwidth to
3:17:38read books
3:17:39i used to many years ago i used to read
3:17:42no i i do my work my work's extremely
3:17:46time consuming i work
3:17:48very very long hours and and i don't
3:17:50have enough hours in the day i mean
3:17:52there's
3:17:53there's never a time when i feel like my
3:17:55work is done i go to bed
3:17:57at night and i'm up as soon as i wake up
3:18:00and i'm at my desk within five minutes
3:18:02with a coffee and i'm going again
3:18:04i don't know where people find the time
3:18:07to to read so what i end up doing as
3:18:09i've mentioned before it's still nice
3:18:11out there i'm going to go out for a run
3:18:12later
3:18:13um i will listen to audiobooks
3:18:17but they tend to be more the
3:18:19motivational type things like i'm into
3:18:21you know david goggins
3:18:23uh podcasts and whatnot i'll listen to
3:18:25stuff like that and occasionally i'll do
3:18:27a finance thing like if there's a
3:18:29if there's a finance book i want to
3:18:30listen to i'll do i'll do an audio book
3:18:33but mostly it's just just running i'll
3:18:36just listen to that or
3:18:37when i'm doing my spreadsheets it's
3:18:38playing in the background
3:18:40but no i don't read any books
3:18:48nope
3:18:52all right there's a pause here so i
3:18:54don't know if that means that i'm shut
3:18:55down
3:18:56or if um
3:18:59or if you're just out of
3:19:03is questions what that means
3:19:06what is there there's 59 people that's
3:19:10dipping a little bit so people are
3:19:11probably tired
3:19:13wonder if we should oh there we go that
3:19:16sounds worse than it is but he's
3:19:18referring to
3:19:20david goggins so there you go
3:19:23last maverick that comment could be
3:19:24misconstrued
3:19:30yeah i think that's what do you think
3:19:32shut it down now
3:19:35maybe i'll prepare a show for this
3:19:36saturday i'll uh
3:19:41i'll open up my spreadsheet
3:19:44i'll see what you guys might find
3:19:46interesting
3:19:48and um i'll see if i can get some more
3:19:51structure but
3:19:53i cannot thank you guys enough for
3:19:55helping me test this software
3:19:58it was so intimidating because i can do
3:20:00everything on the back end
3:20:02in a private but i just i
3:20:05couldn't test the comment section the
3:20:08what you can see what you can't see
3:20:09when i do screen shares you know do you
3:20:12do you see stuff like this moving around
3:20:14so super helpful thank you so much
3:20:20i feel almost bad ducking out i don't
3:20:22know why i'm just gonna
3:20:24rip the band-aid off i'm gonna stop the
3:20:27stream all right thanks everybody
3:20:29see you next time

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