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Entenda em 23 minutos o que Lula REALMENTE FEZ nos últimos 4 anos (veja antes de votar no domingo) — Transcript

by Breno Perrucho - Jovens de Negócios · 4,122 words · 632 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00This is Lula's government plan, not for
  2. 0:02the next term, but for this term that
  3. 0:05began in 2023 and that we are about to
  4. 0:07finish. I read all 121 points of this
  5. 0:10government plan and it is surprising
  6. 0:12the amount of things the government
  7. 0:14promised it would do and did. And that
  8. 0:17can be good, but it might not be. After
  9. 0:21all, it matters little to promise to
  10. 0:23crash a car into a wall and then
  11. 0:24execute that promise extremely well.
  12. 0:27The damage happens just the same. But
  13. 0:30is that what happened? To answer that,
  14. 0:33we will evaluate here what were the
  15. 0:35achievements for the economy of the
  16. 0:36Lula government in these 4 years of
  17. 0:38office, what was the balance of what he
  18. 0:40promised and delivered. And overall,
  19. 0:42how the Lula government really was for
  20. 0:45the economy. Right at point number one
  21. 0:51of the government plan, it is written
  22. 0:53like this: "Brazil needs to rescue the
  23. 0:55hope of a country devastated by hunger,
  24. 0:57unemployment, inflation, debt, and the
  25. 1:00despair of families." There are five
  26. 1:02things, five problems that this
  27. 1:03government looked at and said: "I am
  28. 1:05going to solve this." This makes our
  29. 1:07life easier, because it is enough to
  30. 1:09evaluate if after 4 years of government
  31. 1:11the numbers surrounding these problems
  32. 1:13improved or not. So that is what we are
  33. 1:15going to do today. Let's start. With
  34. 1:17inflation. In December 2022, closing
  35. 1:20the 4 years of the Bolsonaro government
  36. 1:22, the 12-month accumulated IPCA was at
  37. 1:245.79%. In 2023 it closed at 4.62%. In
  38. 1:302024 at 4.83%. In 2025 at 4.26%. The
  39. 1:37lowest annual inflation since 2018.
  40. 1:40Adding all of this up, this term will
  41. 1:42close with accumulated inflation of
  42. 1:44around 19.7%. If we look at this number
  43. 1:48alone, it doesn't mean much. But if we
  44. 1:51compare it with other terms, look at
  45. 1:53what happens. FHC's first term
  46. 1:56accumulated 43%inflation, the second
  47. 1:58almost 40%. Lula's first, 28%, Dilma's
  48. 2:04first 27%, Bolsonaro's 27%, Lula's
  49. 2:08second, 22%. So, according to the IBGE,
  50. 2:12Lula 3 achieved a term with the lowest
  51. 2:14accumulated inflation of any Brazilian
  52. 2:17president since the Real Plan. But wait
  53. 2:20, bringing down inflation by force
  54. 2:21usually has a price, it's in the basic
  55. 2:23economics textbook. To hold back the
  56. 2:25rise in prices, you need to brake the
  57. 2:28economy. And when you brake the economy
  58. 2:30, unemployment rises, and did it rise?
  59. 2:32Let's see. Unemployment. In the last
  60. 2:36quarter of 2022, 7.9%of Brazilians
  61. 2:39looking for work could not find it. In
  62. 2:42December 2025, Brazil's unemployment
  63. 2:45rate reached 5.1%. It fell. Actually,
  64. 2:50this is the lowest number in the IBGE
  65. 2:52historical series that began in 2012.
  66. 2:54And the number did rise throughout 2026
  67. 2:57, but then it fell again. In July of
  68. 2:59this year, unemployment was at 5.3%.
  69. 3:03Let's see. Wait a minute. The
  70. 3:04unemployment rate is a number that lies
  71. 3:07easily. It can fall because people gave
  72. 3:09up looking for work. It can fall
  73. 3:11because the job that appeared is below
  74. 3:14the level of those looking. So, how do
  75. 3:16we know what really happened? Between
  76. 3:192023 and the middle of this year?
  77. 3:21Brazil increased the number of formal
  78. 3:25jobs by 5.37 million. That is a net
  79. 3:27balance. The employed population
  80. 3:30reached 103.3 million people. That was
  81. 3:33also a record. The number of Brazilians
  82. 3:36with formal private-sector jobs reached
  83. 3:3939.4 million, also a record, and
  84. 3:42informality fell from 39%to 37.5%. In
  85. 3:46other words, it wasn't just more jobs
  86. 3:48that appeared, but more formal jobs.
  87. 3:50Furthermore, the average income of the
  88. 3:52Brazilian worker in 2022 was R $ 3,032,
  89. 3:55and that was the worst number since
  90. 3:572012. And in 2025, this number reached
  91. 4:01R $ 3,560. It was a real gain for the
  92. 4:04average worker's income, already
  93. 4:06adjusted for inflation by 17.4%. So the
  94. 4:10total income mass, which is all the
  95. 4:12money that reaches all Brazilian
  96. 4:13workers combined, also broke a record.
  97. 4:16And finally, the minimum wage went from
  98. 4:19R $ 1,212 to R $ 1,621. Adjusted for
  99. 4:22inflation in the period, the real
  100. 4:24purchasing power increased by 15%for
  101. 4:26those earning the country's wage floor.
  102. 4:29Wow. So, with both the cumulative
  103. 4:31inflation of the term and the
  104. 4:33unemployment rate reaching a historical
  105. 4:35low, it seems the two biggest problems
  106. 4:37on the list have been solved. But have
  107. 4:40they? Let's continue. The third problem
  108. 4:43addressed was hunger. So, the FAO,
  109. 4:46which is the UN's Food and Agriculture
  110. 4:48Organization, releases a report showing
  111. 4:50which countries in the world are
  112. 4:52critical regarding the percentage of
  113. 4:53the population facing hunger. And if
  114. 4:56the prevalence of undernourishment
  115. 4:58stays above 2.5%of the population, it
  116. 5:00enters the hunger map. If it stays
  117. 5:02below, it exits. And Brazil had already
  118. 5:06left the hunger map once back in 2014
  119. 5:08and returned to it in the 2022 report.
  120. 5:11But in July 2025, Brazil exited again.
  121. 5:15The prevalence of undernourishment in
  122. 5:17Brazil was 2.4%, and in 2026, Brazil
  123. 5:20remained off the hunger map. And
  124. 5:23according to the IBGE, more than 2
  125. 5:25million households moved out of food
  126. 5:26insecurity in a single year. So, it
  127. 5:29seems the third problem has been solved
  128. 5:32. Let's move to the fourth. The fourth
  129. 5:36is discouragement. Discouragement is
  130. 5:38the term for those who stopped looking
  131. 5:40for work because they gave up. And
  132. 5:42discouragement appears in the labor
  133. 5:44underutilization rate, which combines
  134. 5:46the unemployed, underemployed, and
  135. 5:48discouraged. In 2022, the labor
  136. 5:51underutilization rate was at 20.8%. In
  137. 5:542025, it was at 14.5%. And in the most
  138. 5:58recent data, 13%. Wow. So, the fourth
  139. 6:01problem seems to have been solved as
  140. 6:02well. Now, regardless of the conclusion
  141. 6:05we reach on the fifth item, which is
  142. 6:07indebtedness, with four out of five
  143. 6:09items solved, it seems undeniable that
  144. 6:12the Lula 3 administration was a good
  145. 6:14government. Look, everything you said
  146. 6:16is true, but it's still one of the most
  147. 6:18dishonest speeches I've ever heard. Pay
  148. 6:20attention. You are showing the end
  149. 6:23result while omitting how those results
  150. 6:25were achieved. It’s like that friend
  151. 6:28of yours who suddenly shows up with a
  152. 6:30brand-new car, a new phone, buys drinks
  153. 6:31for everyone, and everyone looks and
  154. 6:33thinks, "Wow, he’s doing well." And
  155. 6:36nobody knows he went into debt for
  156. 6:37three generations because he didn't
  157. 6:38have any money to pay for the drinks
  158. 6:40upfront. And by the way, you skipped
  159. 6:42exactly that item, the fifth one, which
  160. 6:44is indebtedness. Item five. There are
  161. 6:49already more than 66 million people in
  162. 6:51default. This was the problem they
  163. 6:53promised to solve. They created an
  164. 6:55entire program for it, "Desenrola," and
  165. 6:58renegotiated 3 billion reais in debt.
  166. 7:00Do you know how many are in debt today?
  167. 7:0283.9 million Brazilians. A 27%increase
  168. 7:07in the number since the start of the
  169. 7:08administration, and also the highest
  170. 7:10number in the historical series. But
  171. 7:12indebtedness is just the tip of the
  172. 7:14iceberg regarding the failures of the
  173. 7:15Lula administration. You used his own
  174. 7:17government as a yardstick, didn't you?
  175. 7:19I’m going to do the same thing,
  176. 7:20except you only read the first few
  177. 7:22pages, and I read the rest. I think
  178. 7:27this debate is going to be more fun
  179. 7:29than I thought. Ah, let me get ready.
  180. 7:32Welcome to the debate of the century.
  181. 7:34On one side, Breno the PT supporter,
  182. 7:37ready to defend his ideas. On the other
  183. 7:39, Breno the Free-Market advocate,
  184. 7:42prepared to refute every argument. And
  185. 7:45in the center of this discussion, our
  186. 7:48beloved Breno the Presenter, trying to
  187. 7:50keep order, control tempers, and
  188. 7:52hopefully make it to the end alive. Let
  189. 7:56the debate begin.
  190. 7:58We can start. Among the many promises
  191. 8:02made by the government, in item 62 of
  192. 8:05the plan, it says, and I quote: "We
  193. 8:07will reverse the process of
  194. 8:08deindustrialization, we will increase
  195. 8:11the rate of public and private
  196. 8:13investment," and also in item 64 it is
  197. 8:15written that the plan is to reduce the
  198. 8:17cost of capital. And what is the name
  199. 8:20for the cost of capital here in Brazil?
  200. 8:22The SELIC rate. When the Lula
  201. 8:25administration took office, the Selic
  202. 8:27rate was at 13.75%, and today it is at
  203. 8:3013.75%. Exactly where it started;
  204. 8:34almost 4 years to return to the
  205. 8:36starting point. However, today Brazil
  206. 8:39has the highest real interest rate in
  207. 8:41the world at 8.45%per year, while the
  208. 8:43average of the 40 largest economies in
  209. 8:45the world is 1.62%. And maintaining
  210. 8:49high interest rates creates exactly the
  211. 8:51problems the government said it wanted
  212. 8:53to solve. Think about it, imagine you
  213. 8:56are the owner of a company and have
  214. 8:58millions in currency to decide between
  215. 9:00building a new factory 10 years from
  216. 9:02now, which would then start generating
  217. 9:05around 20 to 25%per year in results. Or
  218. 9:07you leave the money in the national
  219. 9:09treasury earning 13%per year with no
  220. 9:12risk at all. What do you do? So, a
  221. 9:14significant portion of business owners
  222. 9:16do not take the risk. And small
  223. 9:17entrepreneurs don't either. But the
  224. 9:20biggest problem isn't the businesses
  225. 9:22that fail to start, it's the businesses
  226. 9:24that die due to the brake on economic
  227. 9:26activity caused by so many consecutive
  228. 9:28years of high interest rates. 2,466
  229. 9:30companies filed for bankruptcy
  230. 9:33protection in 2025 alone. This was the
  231. 9:36highest number since Serasa began
  232. 9:37counting in 2012. We had only one IPO
  233. 9:40in the entire term, compared to 79 in
  234. 9:42the last term. We had 40 Brazilian
  235. 9:45companies fleeing to Paraguay during
  236. 9:47this Lula term, paying their taxes
  237. 9:49there, creating jobs there, and
  238. 9:51supplying the local economy there with
  239. 9:53more competitive prices than here. Do
  240. 9:56you see where all this leads? Reducing
  241. 9:59the bonanza for business owners was a
  242. 10:01necessary price to reduce unemployment,
  243. 10:03to reduce hunger, and also to control
  244. 10:05inflation. What matters is the final
  245. 10:07result for the majority of the
  246. 10:08population, which was positive. Poverty
  247. 10:11in Brazil fell from 31.6%of the
  248. 10:13population to 23.1%. This means that
  249. 10:1717.6 million Brazilians have moved out
  250. 10:20of poverty. What could matter more than
  251. 10:22the social gain that all of this
  252. 10:23represents? Do you know what you are
  253. 10:25doing? You are looking at the snapshot
  254. 10:26without seeing the whole movie. Want to
  255. 10:28see? Imagine a father who earns 3,000
  256. 10:29reais a month, but he decides to take
  257. 10:31out 100,000 reais in overdraft and
  258. 10:33credit card debt. So with that, he buys
  259. 10:35a new car, takes his family to Disney,
  260. 10:37and has a barbecue with prime steak
  261. 10:39every weekend. If you take a picture of
  262. 10:41this family that year, well, the photo
  263. 10:43is beautiful, right? They’ve escaped
  264. 10:45poverty, they have assets, they’re
  265. 10:47happy, they’re well-fed. But what
  266. 10:49happens the following year? The bank
  267. 10:51comes to collect the debt with interest
  268. 10:52. The father loses the car, the father
  269. 10:54loses the house, and his bad credit
  270. 10:56keeps him from getting another job. And
  271. 10:57the family falls into a spiral of
  272. 10:59misery much worse than where they were
  273. 11:01before. That is exactly what populist
  274. 11:04governments do. They create a sense of
  275. 11:06artificial wealth in the short term,
  276. 11:08injecting non-existent public money
  277. 11:10into the economy through aid and
  278. 11:12unfunded spending. And so businesses
  279. 11:14sell more, unemployment drops
  280. 11:16temporarily, poverty decreases in the
  281. 11:18photo, and the government gains
  282. 11:19popularity. But the price of this is
  283. 11:22the increase in state debt. And when
  284. 11:25the bill comes due, and it always does,
  285. 11:27it comes as inflation, it comes as
  286. 11:29stratospheric interest rates, and it
  287. 11:31comes as structural unemployment. You
  288. 11:34haven't actually lifted people out of
  289. 11:36poverty. You’ve only bought this
  290. 11:38year’s numbers with money from future
  291. 11:40generations. That’s exactly what is
  292. 11:41happening. And I can prove it to you;
  293. 11:44when this government took office,
  294. 11:46Brazil's gross debt was 71.6%of GDP.
  295. 11:49Today, it's at 82.5%. And the debt is
  296. 11:52rising because the government is
  297. 11:53spending more than it earns. Look at
  298. 11:55the numbers. In the last year of the
  299. 11:56previous administration, even after the
  300. 11:58hole left by the pandemic, Brazil
  301. 12:00closed its accounts in the black with a
  302. 12:02surplus of over R $ 50 billion. Revenue
  303. 12:04was growing faster than expenses. And
  304. 12:06what did Lula do? Even before taking
  305. 12:09his seat, he approved the transition
  306. 12:11amendment to get permission to spend
  307. 12:12almost 150 billion more. And the result
  308. 12:15? An accumulation of over R $ 34
  309. 12:17billion in deficit in just one year,
  310. 12:20with no surplus. And do you know who
  311. 12:22paid the bill? You, with your taxes,
  312. 12:25with the tax burden on GDP going from
  313. 12:2831.2%in 2022 to 32.4%in 2025. It was
  314. 12:32practically a new tax every month,
  315. 12:34causing Brazil to reach the highest tax
  316. 12:36burden on GDP in history, as recorded
  317. 12:38by the Treasury's data series. Get it?
  318. 12:41So, the Central Bank has kept interest
  319. 12:43rates high as a consequence of the
  320. 12:45increase in the public deficit and
  321. 12:48rising public debt. And those sky-high
  322. 12:50interest rates translate into
  323. 12:51apparently controlled inflation. The
  324. 12:54increase in public spending translates
  325. 12:55into a reduction in unemployment, a
  326. 12:57reduction in hunger, and a reduction in
  327. 12:59poverty in the short term. But this
  328. 13:01snapshot doesn't hold up unless the
  329. 13:03government balances the public accounts
  330. 13:05. Otherwise, inflation will arrive.
  331. 13:07It’s not a question of if, it’s a
  332. 13:08question of when. Unemployment will
  333. 13:10rise, hunger will grow. All due to
  334. 13:13populist measures meant to give the
  335. 13:14impression that the government was
  336. 13:16doing an excellent job, when in fact it
  337. 13:18was planting a time bomb for the next
  338. 13:19administration. And quickly, guys, the
  339. 13:23coffee’s gone. You know what I’m
  340. 13:28thinking? That you still haven't
  341. 13:30subscribed to the channel. But there is
  342. 13:31something more important than that.
  343. 13:33Regardless of who is right in this
  344. 13:35debate, the undeniable truth is this.
  345. 13:38Over the last 30 years, under all types
  346. 13:41of governments, the real lost 86%of its
  347. 13:44purchasing power, while the dollar lost
  348. 13:46only 50%in the same period. And if you
  349. 13:50leave all your money hostage to Brazil,
  350. 13:52waiting for the next government to fix
  351. 13:53the economy, you will end up poorer.
  352. 13:57That’s why I’m hosting a private
  353. 13:59Zoom call called "Open Portfolio,"
  354. 14:01where I’ll start a global investment
  355. 14:04portfolio from scratch with my own
  356. 14:06money to show you the most efficient
  357. 14:08way to invest abroad and protect your
  358. 14:10wealth. If you want to secure your spot
  359. 14:18at the current price, the first link in
  360. 14:19the description is yours. Now, let's
  361. 14:26get back to it. It’s very easy to
  362. 14:33take all the concrete victories of a
  363. 14:35government and try to discredit them
  364. 14:37with the argument that, oh, but in the
  365. 14:39future things will go wrong. Obviously,
  366. 14:41there will be problems in the future.
  367. 14:42This is Brazil, man. Problems are more
  368. 14:44common here than stray dogs at a
  369. 14:45barbecue. The point is today. And you
  370. 14:48cannot deny the facts. The Brazilian
  371. 14:51GDP per capita rose 7.92%between 2023
  372. 14:54and 2025. People are producing and
  373. 14:57consuming more. And education, which is
  374. 14:59the most important pillar for the
  375. 15:01long-term success you defend so much,
  376. 15:02education saw one of the biggest
  377. 15:04advances in PISA in the last 20 years.
  378. 15:06We were the seventh country that
  379. 15:08advanced the most in math and reading,
  380. 15:10and the eighth that advanced the most
  381. 15:12in science out of 89 countries. And you
  382. 15:14talk about populism, right? This is a
  383. 15:16snapshot, not a film, but it ignores
  384. 15:18the real world. The IBGE itself showed
  385. 15:21that if not for the increased spending
  386. 15:22to fund programs like Bolsa Família
  387. 15:24and BPC, which is the benefit that
  388. 15:26guarantees a minimum wage to low-income
  389. 15:27seniors and people with disabilities,
  390. 15:29extreme poverty in Brazil would have
  391. 15:31jumped to 10%of the population. We kept
  392. 15:34that percentage at 3.5%, and that’s
  393. 15:36millions of lives saved from absolute
  394. 15:38misery. And there's more: Lula's
  395. 15:40administration faced the US Federal
  396. 15:42Reserve with its highest interest rates
  397. 15:44in 22 years, with the United States
  398. 15:45sucking up dollars from all over the
  399. 15:47world. Furthermore, we suffered 3 years
  400. 15:50of falling commodity prices and we took
  401. 15:52an 89 billion real loss from the floods
  402. 15:54in Rio Grande do Sul, and there was
  403. 15:57also Trump's 50%tariff, which in theory
  404. 15:59would destroy exports. But do you know
  405. 16:01what happened? The government overcame
  406. 16:04all of that. In 3 years, Brazil
  407. 16:05accumulated more trade surplus than the
  408. 16:08entire previous term accumulated in
  409. 16:10four. It was 241 billion dollars
  410. 16:12against 220. And just in 2023, the
  411. 16:15first year of Lula's government, it was
  412. 16:17an all-time record, nearly 100 billion
  413. 16:19in a single year. And the dollar, which
  414. 16:22Bolsonaro handed over to Lula at 5.21
  415. 16:24reais, is at 5.15 today, meaning it
  416. 16:27fell. Okay, let's separate luck from
  417. 16:31facts. First, Brazil did indeed advance
  418. 16:35in PISA, okay? But it was totally the
  419. 16:37opposite of how you implied. Look at
  420. 16:39these charts here. Our scores only had
  421. 16:41small increments over these last two
  422. 16:44decades. What actually happened was
  423. 16:46this right here. The developed
  424. 16:48countries plummeted. They were the ones
  425. 16:50that fell. It wasn't Brazil that rose.
  426. 16:52We only appeared to advance as a
  427. 16:54consequence of the fall of other OECD
  428. 16:56countries. And it wasn't merit from our
  429. 16:58government, it was a failing abroad.
  430. 17:01The harsh reality is still that out of
  431. 17:0389 countries evaluated, Brazil is in
  432. 17:0471st place. Celebrating this is like
  433. 17:07celebrating getting a grade of three on
  434. 17:09a test just because the class nerd got
  435. 17:11sick and turned it in blank. And using
  436. 17:13Bolsa Família and BPC as great
  437. 17:15victories of this government. Frankly,
  438. 17:17not cool, bro. The BPC has existed
  439. 17:20since '93, regulated under the Itamar
  440. 17:22Franco administration, and Bolsa
  441. 17:23Família was created in 2003, combining
  442. 17:25programs that FHC had created
  443. 17:27separately, and it survived all these
  444. 17:29terms that have passed since then,
  445. 17:31including even the last Bolsonaro term,
  446. 17:33just under the different name Auxílio
  447. 17:35Brasil. So, saying that if it weren't
  448. 17:37for these programs, extreme poverty
  449. 17:39would be at 10%, is a cheap logical
  450. 17:41trick, because obviously it would be,
  451. 17:43but this safety net was already there;
  452. 17:45it's not a merit of this term. Oh, but,
  453. 17:47man, the GDP per capita grew almost 8%.
  454. 17:50It grew, but the group of middle-income
  455. 17:52countries, the club that Brazil belongs
  456. 17:55to, grew 11.6%per capita in the same
  457. 17:57period. We grew less than the class
  458. 17:59average. We are a C-grade country, and
  459. 18:02you cite global crises to paint the
  460. 18:04government as a great hero that fought
  461. 18:06against every tide and every storm.
  462. 18:08This omits the series of colossal
  463. 18:09strokes of luck we had that had
  464. 18:11absolutely nothing to do with the
  465. 18:12government. Pay attention. Our
  466. 18:13agribusiness alone accounts for 25%of
  467. 18:16our GDP. And it broke record harvest
  468. 18:18after record harvest. Do you know why?
  469. 18:21Because the Trump tariff you mentioned
  470. 18:22was the same one that made China stop
  471. 18:24buying from the United States and come
  472. 18:25buy everything it needed. Where? Here,
  473. 18:28where we became the substitute farm.
  474. 18:31Even the closure of the Strait of
  475. 18:32Hormuz during the Iran war, which was
  476. 18:34the biggest oil chaos in recent history
  477. 18:36, sent oil prices sky-high and,
  478. 18:38according to the IMF, injected another
  479. 18:400.2 points of GDP into Brazil for free,
  480. 18:42just because we were selling oil at a
  481. 18:44higher price. The truth is this, look.
  482. 18:46While we set off fireworks and the
  483. 18:48government runs TV ads because our GDP
  484. 18:49grew, the average for emerging
  485. 18:51countries in the world was growing more
  486. 18:52. In the end, we lost share in the
  487. 18:55global economy. The boat rose not
  488. 18:57because we rowed harder than the others
  489. 18:59, but simply because the world tide
  490. 19:02rose. The growth didn't come because of
  491. 19:04the government, it came in spite of it.
  492. 19:07But there was also the issue of the tax
  493. 19:09reform. That is an important point.
  494. 19:11Exactly. It was 30 years of governments
  495. 19:14with the impossible promise to simplify
  496. 19:16Brazil's tax asylum. And it was the
  497. 19:18Lula government that managed to unify
  498. 19:20the taxes into a VAT. It will end that
  499. 19:22circus of PIS, Cofins, IPI, ISS, and
  500. 19:25ICMS. Now everything will turn into
  501. 19:28just two taxes, the CBS and the IBS.
  502. 19:30Now, business owners will no longer
  503. 19:32need to hire an army of accountants to
  504. 19:34understand what taxes to pay. And the
  505. 19:37reduced bureaucracy this will bring
  506. 19:39will already help Brazil attract
  507. 19:41business in this coming decade, and
  508. 19:43furthermore, it will directly benefit
  509. 19:45our manufacturing industry. How so? You
  510. 19:47know there is the primary sector, which
  511. 19:49is the extractive industry, the one
  512. 19:51that pulls wealth from the land,
  513. 19:53planting and harvesting soy, extracting
  514. 19:54iron ore from the mountain, pumping oil
  515. 19:56from the bottom of the sea. The
  516. 19:59manufacturing industry is the one that
  517. 20:01takes this raw wealth and makes complex
  518. 20:02things. For example, it takes iron ore
  519. 20:05and makes steel. It takes steel and
  520. 20:08makes a car or a tractor; it takes oil
  521. 20:10and makes plastic. It takes plastic and
  522. 20:12makes a laptop. It takes soy and makes
  523. 20:14refined oil or industrialized food. The
  524. 20:16primary sector employs proportionally
  525. 20:19fewer people and requires less
  526. 20:20continuous innovation than a
  527. 20:22cutting-edge factory. That is why the
  528. 20:24manufacturing industry is considered an
  529. 20:26engine of a country's wealth. It is the
  530. 20:29sector that requires the most
  531. 20:30technology, generates the
  532. 20:31highest-paying jobs, demands engineers,
  533. 20:33designers, and technicians, and creates
  534. 20:35a massive supply chain around it.
  535. 20:37Because whoever manufactures cars needs
  536. 20:39to buy tires, glass, paint, leather
  537. 20:41seats, and so on. In other words, the
  538. 20:45tax reform approved by the Lula
  539. 20:46administration is what will enable us
  540. 20:48to stop being just a giant farm or mine
  541. 20:51that exports cheap raw materials while
  542. 20:53having to import expensive technology,
  543. 20:55allowing us to start manufacturing
  544. 20:57high-value-added products, which is
  545. 20:58what truly makes a country rich. First,
  546. 21:04we approved a VAT that is on track to
  547. 21:06literally be the highest on the planet,
  548. 21:08nearly 28%. And do you know why the
  549. 21:11rate became so high? Because the
  550. 21:12original idea was beautiful: everyone
  551. 21:14pays the same, it becomes cheaper for
  552. 21:15everyone. But the text reached Congress
  553. 21:17and turned into a Frankenstein; there
  554. 21:19were discounts here, exemptions there,
  555. 21:21and special regimes for friends of the
  556. 21:22government. And since the government
  557. 21:24won't accept collecting a penny less,
  558. 21:26the base rate for those without a lobby
  559. 21:28exploded to compensate. And in fact,
  560. 21:30you are right, the manufacturing
  561. 21:31industry will benefit, and that is
  562. 21:33incredible. But guess who will pay this
  563. 21:35bill? The services sector. It’s the
  564. 21:39medical clinic, the software developer,
  565. 21:40the school, the accounting firm, the
  566. 21:42advertising agency. The services sector
  567. 21:45is the largest employer in Brazil,
  568. 21:47responsible for over 60%of our GDP, and
  569. 21:49is the engine of our modern economy.
  570. 21:52And it just got tackled to benefit
  571. 21:54something that currently represents
  572. 21:56only 10.8%of the GDP. In other words,
  573. 21:58the sector that accounts for six out of
  574. 22:00every R $ 10 produced in the country is
  575. 22:02picking up the tab to benefit a sector
  576. 22:03that accounts for one. Furthermore,
  577. 22:05during this transition period we are in
  578. 22:07, no one wins with this measure. What
  579. 22:09you pay in new taxes in 2026 is simply
  580. 22:11deducted from the old one. So, the cash
  581. 22:13flow doesn't change at all. What
  582. 22:14changes is everything else. The invoice
  583. 22:16system has to be redone, the software
  584. 22:18has to be changed, and the accountant
  585. 22:20now has to learn two regimes at the
  586. 22:21same time. So no, you are not paying
  587. 22:23more tax; you are paying more people to
  588. 22:25calculate the same tax. And the one who
  589. 22:27gets hit is usually the small
  590. 22:29entrepreneur who doesn't even have a
  591. 22:30tax department. Guys, I think one thing
  592. 22:34is clear here. The verdict depends on
  593. 22:36the yardstick, not the grade. So,
  594. 22:37whoever measures a government by how it
  595. 22:39improved the lives of those at the
  596. 22:40bottom will now say the Lula
  597. 22:41administration delivered what it
  598. 22:43promised. And those who measure it by
  599. 22:45the country's capacity to keep
  600. 22:46improving afterwards will say the
  601. 22:48opposite. But while they keep fighting
  602. 22:50and arguing over the future of the
  603. 22:52country, you need to decide the future
  604. 22:54of your money. Whoever invested in the
  605. 22:56Ibovespa over the last 20 or 30 years
  606. 22:57lost to whoever invested in fixed
  607. 22:59income here in Brazil. And whoever
  608. 23:01invested in fixed income lost by a
  609. 23:02landslide to those who invested in the
  610. 23:03US stock market, through the S&P 500.
  611. 23:06However, investing in the United States
  612. 23:08simply by buying a foreign ETF like SPY
  613. 23:11, or SPX, or even an ETF here in Brazil
  614. 23:13like IVVB11, is an inefficient decision
  615. 23:16from a tax and asset protection
  616. 23:18standpoint. There is a more efficient
  617. 23:21way to accumulate wealth over the long
  618. 23:23term. And that is exactly what I am
  619. 23:25going to show you in practice. By
  620. 23:26opening my computer screen in a closed
  621. 23:28Zoom call. In the open portfolio, I
  622. 23:31will take my own money and build a
  623. 23:33global investment strategy from scratch
  624. 23:35along with you. It’s been 4 years
  625. 23:37since I last showed my investment
  626. 23:38portfolio here on the channel, let
  627. 23:40alone at this price. The link is right
  628. 23:42here in the description so you can be
  629. 23:43part of the open portfolio. So click on
  630. 23:45the link to secure your spot before the
  631. 23:47class fills up. Best regards. See you
  632. 23:50inside Zoom.

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