YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Emergency for 1 of my stocks‼️

Emergency for 1 of my stocks‼️ — Transcript

by Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money · 6,800 words · 983 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00We call this the nighttime edition of
0:02the reaction channel. Welcome in, ladies
0:03and gentlemen. Hope everybody's doing
0:04phenomenal out there. So, look at this.
0:06Public count up $2,900 here today. I was
0:09going to make a joke about this. Posted
0:10this on X. And, uh, 15 years ago, I used
0:13to dream about making $2,900 in a day,
0:15right? So, uh, we've come a long way.
0:17We've come a long way, baby. Now, we
0:20have yields going down. I want to talk
0:21about what this means for countless
0:23stocks out there because you got to
0:24understand if the 10-year moves down,
0:26we're going to have certain stocks
0:27absolutely boom. So, we'll talk about
0:29that in this video here today. Looking
0:31forward to sharing my opinion,
0:32perspectives there. SpaceX, new capex
0:34numbers came out. I want to talk about
0:35what this means and the ramifications
0:37for the semiconductor industry and
0:38what's going on there. Uh, one of my
0:40very important stocks just came out with
0:43earnings. We'll talk about what's going
0:44on there. The stock is being sold off as
0:47we speak right now. Okay. From there, I
0:49want to go ahead and react to this one.
0:50Mike Wilson. We're in the final innings
0:52of a market correction. That's going to
0:54be an interesting one to react to. and
0:55then I'm going to react to this one
0:56around semiconductors pricing in a
0:59crash. Looking forward to sharing my
1:01opinion, perspectives there. By the way,
1:02appreciate everybody joining me as
1:03always. Thanks so much for being here.
1:04If you haven't already done so, I just
1:06need you to do one thing, please.
1:08Please, real quick, just smash the like
1:10button, smash that little thumbs up
1:11icon, make it glow. That's all I need
1:13from you guys. Additionally, make sure
1:15you're subscribed to the channel. You
1:16definitely want to be subscribed. Also,
1:18reaction channel. I got a very exciting
1:20development here. Uh, Thousandx, we got
1:22a big Halloween sale that's going to be
1:24coming. It's going to be Halloween day,
1:26okay? October 31st for ThousandX. We're
1:29going to have a monthly option,
1:30six-month option, and I think a
1:32three-year option depending upon how
1:33long you want to join for, okay? Whether
1:35you just want to try it out for a month
1:37or whether you know what ThousandX is
1:39and you want to join on a longerterm
1:41base. It's going to be a smoking deal.
1:42And so, if you want access to that, that
1:44will be the pinned comment down there
1:45today. Click on that, put in your email
1:47or phone number, and we will send over
1:49the deal when it drops on Halloween.
1:52Okay? Very, very exciting. All righty.
1:54So, let's get rolling here. Uh, 10 year
1:56moving down today in the trading
1:58session, right? Moved up here in the
2:00last like hour or two. But what's going
2:01on here? And what does this mean? And
2:04what type of stocks boom if you have a
2:0610-year going down. Okay, listen.
2:09The stocks that will boom are the stocks
2:10that I've been buying very recently.
2:12Stocks like RH. RH is a perfect example.
2:15You know, up 5% here today. you know,
2:18you get that 10-year to consistently go
2:20down for the next, you know, I don't
2:22know, 6 months. RH, it's it's very
2:25simple game. RH stock's going to
2:26probably double, you know, like it's not
2:28a complicated game, right? Um, the end
2:31of the the moral of the story is here,
2:33real estate's been dead. We all know
2:35this, right? You get that real estate
2:36market going, then we could talk about
2:38RH getting going, right? But when you
2:41when mortgage rates are 7% plus and no
2:45one's going to be moving in that
2:46environment, right? And so that kills
2:49anything real estate related and a stock
2:51like RH is going to get hit the hardest
2:53in that sort of environment. Okay?
2:55They're just going to sell that stock
2:56off regardless of the price, right?
2:58Stocks like SoFi also benefit, right?
3:00SoFi's very at least it's seen it's not
3:04in my opinion but it's seen as being
3:07very uh interest rate dependent and it's
3:09not true. Uh SoFi can be very successful
3:12in any rate environment. We've seen this
3:14from SoFi. We saw SoFi be successful in
3:17a lower interest rate environment. We've
3:18seen SoFi be insanely successful in a
3:21higher interest rate environment.
3:22Anthony Notto has that company clicking
3:24on all cylinders. They can be successful
3:26in you put them in just about any
3:27environment. strong economy, weak
3:29economy, strong consumer, weaker
3:31consumer, they get it done, man. They
3:33get it done. And so, you know, that's
3:35one of those stocks that if yields are
3:38going lower, if treasuries are going
3:39lower, uh SoFi stocks going to likely
3:41boom in that environment. But just
3:43understand that company can win
3:45regardless of the interest rate
3:46environment. It's just the stock price
3:49has trouble because people have a view
3:51of being very interest, right? Stocks
3:54like Win Resorts. Win Resorts is another
3:56one. winning resorts. You get treasuries
3:58to go down. Let's say they peaked uh win
4:01stocks on a boom in that sort of
4:02environment. Next thing you know, you'll
4:04see win back over $100 again, right? Um
4:07American Express, that's another perfect
4:09example. So, a lot of those sorts of
4:11stocks will definitely benefit huge.
4:13Okay, next up here, uh SpaceX. So,
4:15SpaceX capex numbers just came out. So,
4:18what they spent last quarter was
4:20actually a little below what Wall Street
4:23was expecting, but it was I call it
4:24roughly in line, right? So that wasn't
4:27very exciting. But the exciting number
4:29was the capex for the upcoming December
4:32quarter. They're talking about that
4:33could reach 35 to 40 billion, which is
4:37significantly higher than prior Wall
4:39Street projections. So now this is very
4:42good news if you own Nvidia stock. Uh
4:46certainly good news there. Uh Nvidia is,
4:50[clears throat]
4:50you know, they're the ones that benefit
4:52the most from this. Okay. All the
4:54semiconductor companies can benefit from
4:56this. Uh a many of these semiconductor
4:59companies sell into SpaceX different
5:01products and services in in different
5:04ways. Okay, so AMD can make money
5:07different ways from SpaceX. Uh the
5:09memory chip companies obviously will
5:11make money off of this, but Nvidia is
5:13going to be the biggest beneficiary of
5:15this major capex. Also, they're talking
5:17about some crazy numbers being spent
5:19over the next few years. Listen,
5:23I I was a Tesla shareholder for a long
5:26time, okay? And I've covered that
5:28company for a long time. So, Elon Musk,
5:30you know, he makes a lot of very crazy
5:33predictions and most of them don't come
5:35true. Do keep that in mind. Um, but
5:38there's always like some level of truth
5:40in there. So, for instance, like they
5:42were trying to guide for like 500
5:44billion to a trillion dollars of uh ARR
5:47like, you know, within like a year or
5:49two. It's like, you know, they throw out
5:50some crazy numbers, right, that they're
5:52not even going to get remotely close to.
5:53But the moral of the story is they will
5:56spend fortunes of money over the next
5:57several years. Um, is it going to be the
5:59number he's talking about? No. But it's
6:02going to be still very large numbers.
6:04And so there's going to be a lot of
6:05companies that will make a lot of money
6:06from SpaceX over the coming years. And,
6:08uh, that's a thing of beauty. And so,
6:11uh, but Nvidia is the biggest winner.
6:13Just understand that, right? But with
6:14that being said, you know, if I was to
6:16go and look at Nvidia stock, I would
6:18love to look at Nvidia stock after hours
6:20here and see if there's been any major
6:23move with Nvidia. Uh, this should be
6:25intriguing. So, Nvidia, yeah, after
6:29hours 2% upward move there. That makes
6:31sense, right? Um, you know, if SpaceX is
6:35going to be spending that sort of money,
6:36yeah, you know, much much bigger than
6:38expected. Like I said, Nvidia is the
6:40biggest beneficiary. So, I'm not
6:41surprised. Uh, Nvidia is up 2% there
6:43after hours. Okay. All righty. So, next
6:45up here,
6:48take a drink of water. Okay. So, we got
6:50a stock in mine going down Chinatown
6:53after hours. What's going on here? Well,
6:57it's Netflix. Okay, Netflix. So,
7:02[laughter] oh man. So, as of right now,
7:05Netflix is trading $64 after hours.
7:08Okay, let me put this very very simple
7:11by by and I'm not talking by bye bye.
7:15Okay, this is a buy by buy by load the
7:17boat uh situation here with Netflix. So
7:20this is the best the best possible
7:22scenario could have played out here.
7:23Okay, so Netflix is a stock I started
7:25buying recently, right? In the last, I
7:27don't know, couple months here. And so
7:30my if you, you know, listen to the
7:32private group video I recorded and and
7:34been talking about Netflix recently, my
7:36hope was good results, stock goes down,
7:39and then we got exactly that. But we
7:43didn't get good results. We got stellar
7:45results, great results. Okay, so this
7:48was an A+ quarter here for Netflix. uh
7:5112% revenues up, cost of revenue down
7:531%, sales and marketing was only up 6%.
7:55So that's way less in revenues. That's
7:57good as well. Technology development was
7:59a really high number there. That was up
8:0121% but GNA was only up 2%. So operating
8:04income exploded higher. That was up 37%
8:07year-over-year. Ah, it's a phenomenal
8:10number. Income before income tax is up
8:1239%. So that grew even faster in
8:14operating income. I mean, this is
8:16exactly what you want to see. You want
8:17to see, you know, you want to see
8:18whatever your revenues going up, you
8:20want to see your revenues up double
8:21digit percentage as a company, right?
8:23But you want to see your operating
8:24income in, you know, exploding way
8:26higher than revenues. That's exactly
8:27what we got. You want to see your income
8:29before income taxes exploding even
8:30higher than operating income. You want
8:32to see your net income up even more than
8:34as a percent than income before income
8:36taxes, then that was up 44%. You want to
8:38see your diluted EPS up even faster, and
8:40that was up 47%. That's a that's
8:42perfection. That's an A+. That's 100%,
8:44man. 100% perfection from Netflix there
8:48right now. Uh, guidance. So, guidance
8:51was seen as weak. Um, listen, I have
8:56covered Netflix. I've owned the stock on
8:57and off in the past and I've covered
8:59that company, you know, in terms of
9:01paying attention to their numbers and
9:02their results for the longest time. One
9:06thing I can tell you is don't read
9:09anything into their guidance ever. Ever.
9:13The amount of times I've seen Netflix
9:16come out in sandbag guidances just to
9:19then come blow it away is a long list of
9:21times. Okay? Like
9:25don't read too much in their guidance.
9:27Like I I don't even pay attention to
9:29their guidance. It's it's irrelevant.
9:30The literally the guidance is
9:31irrelevant. Um when it comes to Netflix,
9:34I don't trust it at all. They just are
9:36one of those companies that will throw
9:38these guides out and then Wall Street
9:41would freak out about it and then they
9:42come in and beat it. And so, you know,
9:45the company is clicking on all
9:46cylinders. It's an A+ quarter. The
9:49[clears throat] company, you got to
9:50understand it. This is a company that
9:54just gets more and more powerful as time
9:56goes on because they make so much money
9:58and they can pour that money into more
10:00and more content and buying out sports
10:03rights that then makes that company even
10:06more powerful and more powerful. And so
10:08this is just a juggernaut. I view it
10:10very similar to an Amazon type situation
10:12where Amazon,
10:14you know, every quarter more packages
10:16are ordered on Amazon, more companies
10:18use AWS. it just makes them more
10:21powerful, more powerful that they can
10:22reinvest into those products AWS or the
10:27ecom business and just build something
10:29you can't really compete with, right?
10:31And so they just become more and more
10:32powerful. And so that's a situation we
10:34have with Netflix, I will, you know, if
10:37it's 64 bucks tomorrow, I'm buying more
10:39Netflix tomorrow. It's as simple as
10:41that. And regardless, I'll keep buying
10:42Netflix probably for the remainder of
10:44this year. I'll just keep loading up on
10:45shares cuz anything in the 60s or even
10:48the 70s is a steel deal in my opinion as
10:50long as you got a longer term horizon.
10:52But even on a short-term basis like
10:55Netflix is where's Netflix's Ford P
10:57going to be at tomorrow? You know, we
10:59could be looking at a Ford P on Netflix
11:01tomorrow in the teens, right? Yeah. I
11:07mean, you could be looking at a Ford P
11:08tomorrow and Netflix of 18
11:14for Netflix.
11:16Okay, thank you. Like, I don't know what
11:18else to say. Thank you. I like free
11:20money. Uh, I appreciate that. Like,
11:22wild. Absolutely wild. So, um, let me
11:27answer this before we move on here and
11:29react to some videos. Do I view Netflix
11:31as the best buy in the entire stock
11:34market as of tomorrow? The answer,
11:38I wouldn't say the best buy in the
11:40entire stock market. I would say the
11:43best buy of stocks over a hundred
11:46billion market cap. Okay, Netflix as of
11:50tomorrow is the best buy for if you have
11:52a 5year horizon, by the way. You know,
11:54over the next five weeks or 5 months,
11:56who knows? like I would probably go with
11:57AMD if you put me on the spot for that.
12:00But for the next 5 years, Netflix best
12:03riskreward of hundred billion plus
12:05market caps in the world by a mile in my
12:07opinion. Uh for stocks period probably
12:10go Celsius. Um but yeah, for hundred
12:13billion plus market caps, Netflix is the
12:15one. Okay. All right. Let's react to
12:17some Wall Streeters
12:18>> on uh today's Tuesday. You basically
12:21think that whatever would you call it a
12:24selloff? I guess some rotation or
12:26weakness in in the overall averages. You
12:28think that's over and it's it we're
12:29we're going to start having better
12:31market performance at this point.
12:33>> Well, I think the average stock is done.
12:34I mean, it's been a really nasty
12:36corrections. It started in June, right?
12:37I mean, this is sort of the rotation
12:39from early to to midcycle. You had the
12:41the momentum unwind. You've had this now
12:43concern around the the sustainability,
12:45the AI capbacks. You have a couple wars
12:48going on. You have the midterm election
12:50anxiety. So, yeah, there's a lot that's
12:51been digested by the markets. If you
12:53look at the breadth of the market, it's
12:54been terrible. So, I think we're in the
12:56final innings of this, but we still got
12:57to get through the next probably two to
12:58three weeks. And I think we can still
13:00finish a year pretty strongly and
13:01definitely into next year.
13:03>> The uh the AI trade that's already seen
13:06its its worst days uh in terms of of
13:09consolidating or worries about debt and
13:12everything else and it it will lead the
13:14market again or
13:14>> it depends on what part we're talking
13:16about, right? There is a transition
13:17going on within the AI trade from kind
13:19of what we call the enablers to the
13:21adopters, right? So all this spending
13:22that's been going on has been incredible
13:24for semiconductors, some of the power
13:26stocks, all the ones that benefit from
13:28the the spending itself, but now that
13:30infrastructure is being developed and
13:32the question is, is it economic for all
13:34the players? So the the market's doing a
13:36good job of separating some of the
13:37winners and losers and now what they're
13:39what the market's going to get excited
13:41about next year is the actual users of
13:43this technology leading to better
13:45revenue growth and profitability.
13:47Normally it with
13:51the entire market worried about the Fed
13:53and future rate hikes and
13:573.7% inflation and you know whether the
14:00bond the 10 years starts rising again
14:03$108 oil would be a problem. Why is it
14:06why is it less of a problem? It seems
14:08like we've been grappling with that it
14:10because of AI. AI isn't as dependent on
14:13on oil, right?
14:14>> Well, rates are a restriction if there's
14:16no growth, right? But the reason why
14:17rates are higher, I think this is a
14:18differentiated view from a lot of folks
14:20which is the reason why rates are higher
14:21is because growth is so strong. I mean
14:23they come to this year there was there
14:25was thoughts about the Fed was going to
14:27cut rates. Okay. But then of course
14:28growth has been much greater than
14:30expected both earnings and from an
14:32economic standpoint the Feds reacted to
14:33that. They responded to that and so you
14:35know 10 year or 5% with nominal GDP
14:38running seven that doesn't seem
14:39egregious. where the risk is is a speed
14:41in that adjustment and the bond
14:43volatility that's created anxiety in in
14:46the in the financial markets. And now
14:47the one area I do think that that
14:49deserves some attention is we are seeing
14:51credit spreads widen in certain parts of
14:54the AI complex. That needs to calm down.
14:56That's probably a bigger risk than
14:58Treasury yields quite frankly because
14:59that's where the spending is coming
15:01from. So that needs to calm down. Like I
15:02said, we probably got two to three four
15:04weeks where we still got to resolve
15:05this. We have another Fed meeting coming
15:07up. We have the midterm elections. we
15:09have uh you know some capital that still
15:10needs to be raised in the AI space and
15:12and that needs to play through but I
15:14think we're going to get through it
15:15successfully. Part of the narrative
15:16about how you know Trump's approval and
15:19the the approval on the economy is we
15:21haven't had a good GDP print because
15:23that one GDP print that we had w was
15:26skewed by by inventories or whatever it
15:29was if you if you factored some things
15:30out it was like a really strong like
15:33stronger than you'd want even. So, do we
15:36need a print before? You just said 7%.
15:38So, what do you Yeah, you subtract the
15:413.7 you subtract core or headline
15:44inflation.
15:44>> Well, it's basically half real half
15:45inflation. So, this is the whole thesis
15:47of letting the economy run hot to try
15:49and grow out of your
15:50>> So, you think GDP is running hot right
15:52now.
15:53>> Oh, absolutely. That's why rates are up
15:54so
15:55>> and that's why rates are up. That's
15:56that's
15:56>> and that's why stocks are okay
15:57generally. I mean, they've been okay
15:58this year. We're up 10 12%. A lot of
16:00stocks have corrected now in the last
16:02two or three months because we're
16:03adjusting to a Fed that's now
16:05responding, right? We've always said,
16:06right, stocks are fine, okay, with rates
16:09going up as long as growth is good and
16:11the Fed's not killing the cycle. And
16:13that's what the that's what the market
16:14is questioning. Is the Fed going to pull
16:16away the punch bowl too quickly here and
16:18not allow the economy to run? We don't
16:20know. We don't know the answer. I think
16:21I think they're going to be pretty
16:23judicious about allowing the market to
16:24tighten for that. They're not going to
16:26look purely at $108 oil seeping into
16:30inflation and and causing, you know,
16:343.7%.
16:35That that's not going to be the primary
16:37number. It it it's going to be let this
16:40run because these are there's some
16:42positive things causing rates to
16:43increase.
16:44>> Think about it, Joe. If first of all,
16:45oil 108 doesn't really tell us the true
16:47story. As you know, product Yeah. Well,
16:50diesel prices and product prices, jet
16:52fuel, that's the constraint. that's
16:54going to do its own tightening. So, I
16:55think Kevin Worsh has the right
16:57philosophy here, which is like, look, I
16:58don't I can't control the oil market,
17:00right, as the Fed chair, I can't really
17:02control the speed of the economy. He
17:04knows rates are going up. He's allowing
17:06rates to go up and he knows oil prices
17:08are up. That's your natural governor. 7%
17:11probably 7 8% is probably too hot. So,
17:13let it let the market do the tightening
17:15for him, whether it be oil.
17:16>> What if what if Fed funds are way out of
17:18kilter with where the long end is,
17:20though? He's going to I mean, you can
17:21let it run hot, but it looks like
17:22they're behind the curve.
17:24>> They're behind probably 50 basis points.
17:26That's what the two-year yield is
17:27telling us, but that's okay. I mean,
17:28it's not out of control.
17:29>> You can stay behind because of
17:31productivity from AI.
17:32>> Yeah, we don't know the but we don't
17:34know how the war's going to resolve, how
17:35oil prices are going to, you know, trade
17:37over the next 6 to 12 months, which is
17:38the main driver.
17:39>> No October hike, Mike.
17:40>> No October hike.
17:41>> Well, see, this is an issue with Mike
17:43Wilson's call here. Okay, listen.
17:44Listen, let me explain this. He's
17:47calling, you know, we're in the final
17:48innings of market correction. But yet he
17:50says, well, we don't know what's going
17:51to happen oil. We don't know what's
17:52going to happen rates. We don't know
17:53what's going to happen with this. That's
17:55why you can't really make a call like
17:57that. You know, you can't you just can't
17:59make a call like that because there's so
18:01many various factors that could happen.
18:03Uh you might think like oh as long as we
18:06don't have you could say something like
18:08as long as we don't have anything get
18:10out of hand in the oil market or with
18:12rates or something like that then we can
18:14have a end of a uh this market
18:16correction especially for a lot of the
18:18smaller cap stocks but you need to like
18:22frame it from that thought process not
18:24just like oh you know this is like
18:26there's so many things that could happen
18:27like no you can't make that call
18:29>> December's on the table and more
18:31importantly I think balance sheet what
18:32are they going do with the balance
18:33sheet? Are they going to keep funding
18:35the the deficit through the front end of
18:36the of the bill market or are they going
18:38to back off on that? That's liquidity is
18:40is probably the bigger risk for
18:42financial markets than than front end
18:43rates
18:44>> in and do we continue to see a a breath
18:47improve in the market? Does this broaden
18:49out or is is it still going to be
18:51>> not like we saw an earlier in the year
18:52that was the early cycle kind of
18:54expansion, but we are going to see a
18:57rebroading I believe once we get through
18:59this, you know, once the S&P finally
19:01does its final move. I think we can see
19:02a rebranding.
19:03>> So, we're almost at the end of the year.
19:05Is is your year end target worth talking
19:07about or do we talk about next year?
19:102027 year end.
19:11>> Yeah. I think I think what we we have
19:138,300 for midyear, May of next year. And
19:16I think that's very achievable. I think
19:178,500 could be achievable by the middle
19:19part of next year.
19:20>> Wow. Okay. Let's get ready to make some
19:23money then, huh? All right. Let's uh
19:25talk some semiconductor stocks and
19:26listen to some Wall Streeters. That
19:28should be entertaining.
19:29>> Yes. [clears throat] mostly this week
19:30they report middle of the week it it it
19:33reports this week it's going to be a
19:34great quarter the stock has not traded
19:37well it's down 37% off of its June high
19:41but it's up 62% year to date that's fine
19:44but Joe you're a student in the markets
19:46I'm a student Jimmy is Scott everybody
19:49>> isn't this sound so eerily familiar that
19:53Micron six times earnings it's so damn
19:56cheap and their order book is so big
19:59Right. And that they can't meet all the
20:01demand. Have you ever heard that before?
20:02>> There's one big difference. Hold on. One
20:04big difference. I've heard it out 10
20:05times, you know, my career. There's one
20:07big difference. Your point is well made.
20:09But here's the key difference at the end
20:11of
20:12>> this one. This one matters. They have no
20:14debt. Micron. They have about 100
20:15billion in cash. They're generating 130
20:17billion in free cash flow. And what are
20:19they doing with it? They're
20:20recapitalizing the company by buying
20:22back shares at six times.
20:23>> How much debt do you think they had in
20:24prior cycles?
20:25>> A lot.
20:26>> Jimmy. A lot.
20:26>> Jimmy. It doesn't matter when the order
20:28books dry up.
20:30>> Jimmy, let me ask a question.
20:31>> You think the order is going to dry up
20:33>> in ter dry up in terms of what they
20:37believe? I'll phrase it a different way.
20:39Their take or pay contracts for 40% of
20:41the revenue 27 if the market if the if
20:45the spending peaks those takeay
20:48contracts mean zero like in every cycle.
20:50Listen, I'm not going to dispute that
20:52with you.
20:53>> But that's what the bull case half their
20:55revenues are against.
20:56>> This is a simple question that we're
20:57disagreeing on which we have rights to
20:59do which is where is the peak? Where is
21:01the peak? And again, if we look back,
21:03>> sorry, hold your horses again. Hot and
21:05heavy in here. Okay. Uh listen, let me
21:07say one thing about Micron here. Okay.
21:09Um I fundamentally disagree with what
21:12Micron's doing with their cash. Okay?
21:15Listen,
21:17they should not go out there and do
21:19massive share buybacks in my opinion
21:21over the next year or two like they're
21:22planning on doing. They're going to plan
21:24on doing some crazy share buybacks over
21:26the next year or two. I don't agree with
21:28that at all. They should stack cash
21:30right now. You're in the next year or
21:33two. You're going to make more money
21:34than you could ever imagine in this
21:35business model. Your margins going to be
21:36the best they've ever been. It's going
21:38to be incredible, right? Probably not
21:41sustainable over the long term. Next
21:43year or two, fine. next 10 years
21:46probably not right and so Mr. short
21:49hills capital here is correct in talking
21:52about like this is not sustainable for
21:54the long term right and um and so since
21:58you know that you know Micron's going to
22:00end up eventually having a much weaker
22:03stock price I don't know if that's a
22:05year from now 3 years from now four
22:06years from now but it will eventually
22:08have a much weaker stock price so right
22:11now is a great opportunity to load the
22:14balance sheet with cash load it with
22:16cash have it earn five, you can easily
22:19earn 5% a year on that cash right now,
22:22right? Keep ahead of CPI by quite a big
22:25margin, right? And then shareholders
22:28will obviously be able to sleep well at
22:29night because the companies will instead
22:31of spending all on share buybacks or
22:33extensive amount, right? You're just
22:35going to have this crazy cash load and
22:37that's generating massive amounts of
22:39interest income that is ready as soon as
22:42you get some drama out there, right? and
22:45the memory market weakens and boom,
22:48there you go. Now we're talking. So, you
22:52know, that's what I believe they should
22:53be doing with their money. This is fun.
22:55>> I'm saying it's prudent to think
22:58a year and I would agree with you that
23:00it peaks a year before spending peaks. I
23:02agree with you. What I'm saying is this
23:04cycle and it is a cycle, okay, is longer
23:07than that.
23:08>> What happens if the demand story isn't
23:09close to peaking at all?
23:10>> Well, that's isn't that what the
23:12conversation is about? That's that's
23:14>> Isn't that why isn't that why Dan Ies is
23:17out today suggesting that what we're
23:18seeing now is no different than the you
23:21know the the so-called SAS apocalypse
23:23but now it's just become now we're
23:25worried about the this
23:27>> the answer demand isn't waning at all
23:29>> the answer to your question which is the
23:31question lies somewhere between a year
23:33from now and four years from now most of
23:35the projections are the spending goes
23:37through the next four years I find that
23:39a little bit hard to believe but equally
23:41and just based What I hear from managers
23:44is these companies I grant you Steve
23:46biased of course they have their
23:47perspective but what I'm hearing from
23:49them is it's not one year either it's
23:51longer than that you know but but keep
23:52in mind I'm not selling all my AI stocks
23:55right I've just reduced my exposure to
23:58the group
23:59>> so you've reduced you you've reduced
24:01Meta have you
24:02>> no Meta actually you know I took the
24:04opportunity to increase the size
24:06>> but what's the difference between that
24:07and the others
24:08>> because I think Meta is a product
24:10company ultimately So they'll benefit.
24:13They're on the other side of the capex
24:14cycle, right? So of course they're going
24:16to spend. They have a unique ability to
24:18spend given their balance sheet. They're
24:20also going to benefit from what they're
24:22spending in terms of their products they
24:24offer to the public.
24:25>> So if you're reducing your exposure to
24:27AI stocks, which ones are we talking
24:28about?
24:29>> We talked about Micron. We talked about
24:31Verdive. You know, Micron was a really
24:34big position. It's gone. It's been gone
24:36for a few months now.
24:38>> You own Nvidia.
24:39>> Again, small position. relatively small
24:41position,
24:42>> but you haven't you haven't seen you
24:44haven't reduced that,
24:45>> have you?
24:46>> Uh, yeah. At one point I got out and
24:48then I got back in lower prices. So,
24:50yes, and it's smaller now than it was.
24:53Taiwan semi is still probably my largest
24:56position.
24:57>> Meta, by the way, target today goes to
24:59820 at Morgan Stanley. Uh, outperformed
25:03900 by Ives.
25:06>> I I bought some more meta this morning.
25:08It was down 15 bucks. I'll be out of
25:10that extra over, but still I think it's
25:12my second largest position.
25:14>> Well, I mean that's a pretty right in
25:17the thick of it AI stock.
25:19>> But again, they have a unique ability I
25:22believe and I don't mean a bill unique
25:24of one to expand to different product
25:27areas as we're seeing. So if they want
25:30to go into the enterprise market, they
25:32can go in the enterprise market. If they
25:33want to go in the cloud market, go in
25:35the cloud market. So, and again, I love
25:38the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is the
25:41only founder still running one of these
25:43mega cap companies aside from Jensen
25:45Wong, but he's got a very capital
25:47intensive business, more capital
25:48intensive than what uh than than what
25:51Meta has and uh you know having that
25:54having that founders mentality to
25:58>> what
26:00more capital intense Jensen's got an
26:02asset like business model. Are you
26:04kidding me? Look, he's the one
26:06benefiting from all these companies
26:08spending stupid amounts on capex. And
26:09all due respect, what
26:12Jensen's got the ultimate business
26:14model, man.
26:15>> To go into new areas without
26:18>> they don't even make the chips. TSMC
26:20makes the chips. It's beautiful. back as
26:23an operator like we see at at Alphabet
26:26and we see at Microsoft
26:28>> a founder and you know the ability that
26:29you don't have to listen to to
26:31shareholders at all by by virtue
26:33>> but you also think like a founder the
26:35structure
26:35>> you think like a founder which means
26:37that rather than just
26:38>> Gerson you listen to him
26:40>> right unless you're unless you're well
26:42Brad Gerson is not running a major
26:43>> No but I'm saying like
26:45>> but I'm saying they find new areas it's
26:49like they were founder in Facebook think
26:50of how that that that company has
26:52changed since Facebook. They find these
26:55problems and they seek to solve these
26:58problems. That what's make that's what
26:59makes Founders special.
27:01>> I I think you said it before, the the
27:04detrimental relationship for the NEO
27:07clouds is all about Treasury yields.
27:09>> If yields were not sitting where they
27:12are today, if yields were 50 to 75 basis
27:15points lower, then the Neoclouds
27:17wouldn't experience the stress that they
27:19have right now. How about the semis
27:20which are coming off the worst losing
27:21streak in like 20 years, right? How
27:24about this from Jeff? The Mag Seven have
27:26now outperformed the semis for 10
27:28straight days. That's the longest streak
27:30ever. Tony Pascarella at Goldman talks
27:32about hedge funds retreating from semis.
27:35That feels like as much of a problem as
27:37anything else. You're sort of abandoning
27:39this trade.
27:40>> I I don't think it's a problem at all. I
27:42actually like the fact that we are
27:44seeing hedge funds lighten up their
27:46exposure to the semiconductor trade.
27:49Remember, we are sitting in the middle
27:51of October, which from a seasonal
27:54standpoint is generally a weak period.
27:56On the other side, November and December
27:58seasonally is a very strong period. I
28:01like the setup for positioning if you're
28:03telling me that the speculative
28:05community, which has been anchored to
28:07the semiconductor trade for the better
28:08part of the last 3 years, is going to
28:11lighten up their exposure and rotate
28:13into the more defensive Mag 7. I think
28:16that's good setup. So then let's say let
28:18let's just say the the selling
28:20volatility continues. We got a couple
28:23weeks left in the month. It's uh you
28:25know choppy, uneven, maybe the market
28:26trades down. Is it a buying opportunity
28:29today? Like um Mike Wilson suggests that
28:32it is says the next market selloff could
28:34be the time to add risk. We advise
28:36investors to be ready for either a rapid
28:39reconciliation or a slower bleed into
28:40November because in our view that will
28:43be the time to add risk rather than shun
28:45it. You agree?
28:47We do agree. I agree. And the reason I
28:48said we is because we had some of our
28:50analysts uh do a look at individual
28:52stock volatility versus the overall
28:54market. Individual stock volatility is
28:563x that of the market, which is a way of
28:59saying, you were talking about rotations
29:00earlier, Joe. We all know those
29:02rotations have been fast and furious,
29:03but it also is a way of saying there's
29:05been a lot of damage done. And I think
29:07what we're answering the question today
29:09of is whether the Mag 7 and the AI trade
29:12needs to catch down to where the rest of
29:14non- tech has been for the last several
29:16years or whether that catchup trade and
29:19that broadening as stunted as it's been
29:21can continue. But the overarching
29:23comment in the last uh option which is
29:25what I believe is that AI and tech is a
29:28buying opportunity right here that it's
29:31not something where those stocks need to
29:32need to catch down to the rest of the
29:34market. The fundamentals support it. The
29:36valuations support it, the earnings
29:38support it.
29:38>> Yeah, I I like that. And I and I do
29:40believe that this is an opportunity on
29:42the position lightning that we're seeing
29:44related to tech and the AI trade. Uh
29:48where I struggle is a lot of the
29:50commentary that I heard last week, which
29:52was, "Oh, here we go. The broadening
29:54trade is back on once again. I don't
29:57know if I see in front of me."
29:58>> That was a defensive reaction.
29:59>> I don't know if I see the evidence in
30:01front of me that I could get behind
30:02that. I don't know how to resolve oil at
30:04$102. I don't know how to resolve
30:07Treasury yields that stay uncomfortably
30:08high. So I'm not so sure the place that
30:11I want to go is in that direction.
30:14What happened last week? Yes, it
30:15broadened, but it broaden it broadened
30:17into defensive like healthcare and it
30:19broadened into energy because of high
30:20oil prices. I mean what you really want
30:22to see is things that you were talking
30:24about just a minute ago like Caterpillar
30:25or some of the utilities and things like
30:27that to start to spread through and see
30:29a broadening that way which is not what
30:30you saw yet last week. Oh, Jamie Diamond
30:32Jamie Diamond gives an interview to the
30:34Journal and and says the economy is
30:36booming.
30:38>> Not naive to the risks of inflation and
30:40the war and oil prices and and
30:42everything else. But
30:44>> look at Dick Sporting Goods, right? I
30:46bought it, got crushed after the
30:47quarter, went down to 121. You know, I I
30:50added significantly it's 144. It's the
30:53ultimate consumer stock. Now, I think
30:55they've got some edge in terms of being,
30:57you know, uh, the brand in the space,
31:00but yes, but but, you know, just so my
31:03my position's clear, all I'm saying is
31:06if if I'm wrong and it's not peaking in
31:08a year, I'm prepared to miss it. I've
31:11made enough money on the AI trade, I'm
31:13sticking with the ones that I think are
31:15permanent compounders and I'm ready to
31:18miss the flood. But are you are you then
31:22also suggesting that you're staying away
31:24from these stocks
31:25>> for the year for the next year until you
31:27find out
31:28>> Meta Alphabet's a big position of mine.
31:31I own some Nvidia Goldman Sachs I own.
31:34Goldman is also a lever to the AI trade
31:37and the uh M&A pipeline and the IPO
31:40pipeline. So I'm not out of it
31:42completely. I own Apple which is more of
31:44a product company in the AI trade, AI
31:46deficient trade. So I'm comfortable with
31:49what I and Taiwan semi. So I'm not out
31:53of it. I'm just more selective. As we
31:56move into November and December, guess
31:58what? I want to own the momentum factor.
32:02I think in November and December, what
32:04has been the best trade of 2026? I think
32:07we go out with that being the strength
32:11>> talking your own book. He is, but also
32:14in December you, oh, it's it's it's sort
32:17of like a rule. We'll pull forward to
32:19man from January. But don't forget,
32:21we've got
32:21>> okay, you know, you're in a great
32:23position with that momentum factor
32:25because it has gotten annihilated since
32:28Micron reported at the end of June. It's
32:30been a very difficult Q3.
32:32>> I I just want to see what happens with
32:33the elections, right? I want to see the
32:35reporting.
32:36>> Uh I mean, actually, Joe Teranova there
32:39at the end brings up a good point. Okay,
32:41listen listen listen. If you want to
32:42make money November, December, if we get
32:45a risk-on market like you usually do in
32:48November, December, right? Um, yeah,
32:51momentum is going to roll. Uh, it's
32:53going to be party time, right? That's
32:54what you get most years. It doesn't mean
32:56for sure it's happening this year, but
32:57that's what you get most years. And, um,
33:00and so, like, if you're going to play
33:04from a trading perspective, the market
33:06on November, December, you want to play
33:07whatever has been hot because whatever's
33:09been hot stays hot. And then all the
33:12Wall Street funds that need to chase the
33:13market, they move to those sorts of
33:15stocks. And so there's a huge year-end
33:17bid and um then that leads into January
33:21and then sometimes people move out of
33:24some positions after that. But yeah,
33:26man, that's where that's where it's at.
33:28Okay. All righty, guys. I hope you
33:29enjoyed today's video. I appreciate you
33:30for joining me once again. Thousandx
33:32deal is coming Halloween. If you want
33:34access to that sale, that's going to be
33:35the pinned comment down there. You can
33:36click on that and uh go ahead and put in
33:39your name and info. If you don't know
33:41what ThousandX is, I recorded you guys a
33:42little 5minute video walking you through
33:44everything you're going to get access to
33:46and all that good stuff. Okay. All
33:47righty.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Emergency for 1 of my stocks‼️ by Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 6,800 words across 983 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.