YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Emergency Discussion #3: Xi Visits Trump

Emergency Discussion #3: Xi Visits Trump — Transcript

by Predictive History · 27,592 words · 4,075 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:01Okay, good afternoon. I am we are I'm
0:04currently um
0:07>> Hi guys.
0:08>> Hi. Could you please mute yourself?
0:11Okay,
0:12>> let um I I I need to mute everyone
0:14first. Okay, we have
0:19>> Yeah, just please everyone just mute
0:22yourself. Okay. So, what I'm going to do
0:24first is I will do a presentation and
0:27today it's a meeting uh it's a
0:29discussion on
0:33um President Ciding Ping's visit to the
0:37United States and that's all we will
0:39discuss. All right. So for an hour I
0:42will go over what I think happened,
0:45provide some background, some context,
0:48some analysis, and then um you'll be
0:51invited to ask questions, make comments
0:55or observations. But I want this um
1:00discussion to be centered only on the
1:04topic today. So, I would really
1:07appreciate it if we stick to the rules
1:10and um I will be very harsh today. So,
1:13if you are getting off topic or you're
1:15asking a question that's not really
1:16relevant
1:17um to the discussion and I will cut you
1:21off. All right? I apologize for that.
1:23But um you know these meetings uh zoom
1:27discussions is really an opportunity for
1:28us to go deep into a topic um and you
1:34know USChina relations obviously is a
1:37very very um important topic and I want
1:41to make sure that everyone um today has
1:46a pretty good understanding
1:49of what's going on.
1:53Okay. Um so first of all um I want to
1:58thank everyone for your support. So I am
2:04currently um as you can see in the
2:06woods. Uh there's there's a lot of
2:08foliage uh behind me and it's the fall
2:13in Canada and so it is just beautiful.
2:18lots of autumn colors, uh, red, orange,
2:22yellow, and my son is with me and we are
2:25staying with some family friends and
2:29it's just been wonderful. Um, and this
2:32is a life that I've always dreamt of,
2:35you know, to have children, have
2:37children, play in the woods, and um, you
2:41guys, because of your general support
2:42have made this um, possible. So again, I
2:46can't I can't express enough gratitude.
2:49This entire trip uh back to North
2:51America has been um fantastic. Uh we've
2:55met so many wonderful people. Um there's
2:59um a good friend Reza who hosted us in
3:01Los Angeles and uh when we went back to
3:05Toronto um some friends helped look
3:08after my son Chris. So I could spend
3:10about 8 10 hours a day in the library
3:12really uh grinding away doing some
3:15really deep research into the occult
3:17series that I will present. Um now we
3:20are staying with some friends near
3:22Ottawa and um um so this is really the
3:27life I've I've always wanted and uh you
3:30guys have made this possible. So thank
3:33you so much everyone. Okay. So I am
3:36going to
3:38um start my presentation. So I'm going
3:41to share the screen and please um if you
3:43are if you are
3:46um
3:48new if you just come in please remember
3:50to mute yourself. Um and and again um we
3:55Fritz did you have a question?
3:58Uh I'm about to start.
4:00>> Yes. Uh, I just wanted to make sure that
4:02you were aware this is being recorded by
4:04some by a third-party AI notetaker. And
4:07if you're not aware of that, I think it
4:09should be shut off.
4:11>> Oh, okay. Um, who who is using a third
4:16party AI
4:18recorder?
4:21Um Um, and how do I shut it off? I'm
4:26recording this myself and this will be
4:28uploaded to YouTube.
4:30Um, and why I don't understand why this
4:34is being recorded by by a third party.
4:36Um,
4:38and I I I don't even know how to
4:41>> I think the moderator could probably
4:42kick the fireflies.ai note.
4:46>> Okay. All right. Yeah, let me look for
4:48it. Okay. But thanks so much, Fritz. Um,
4:51>> and while you're at it, I'll say that
4:53the moderator can also mute everybody.
4:57>> Yes, I am the muter. Okay, I I'll I'll
4:59just mute everyone. Thank you. All
5:00right, so I'm going to meet everyone and
5:03I'm going to figure out Okay.
5:16Okay. All right. So, I' I've turned off
5:18the third party. Um again the entire
5:22point um all this conversation
5:25um is to really go deep into China and
5:29I'll be doing so over the next few
5:30months um because as you know um this is
5:34only the second of four meetings that
5:36are scheduled between Trump and CE this
5:38year. So uh um Trump first visited China
5:43in May and that went well but didn't
5:47really produce anything. This visit went
5:49okay but again he didn't produce
5:51anything. There are two more visits
5:52scheduled.
5:54>> Uh there are two more v uh uh v visit
5:58scheduled. One will be in Apac in China
6:01in Shenzhen in November and Putin is
6:03scheduled be to be there as well and
6:06presidenc has invited Trump to China and
6:09Trump has said yes. So I think it's very
6:11likely all three leaders will be there
6:13for the first time in a long time. Putin
6:17of Russia, CE of China, and Trump of the
6:19United States. And that'll be very
6:20interesting. And then, um, in December,
6:25uh, there will be a one more meeting in
6:28Florida at Trump's National Golf Course.
6:30Um, and Presidency will will will
6:33probably be there for the G20 summit.
6:34Okay. All right. So, um, we will be
6:38discussing more of China
6:40um, as this year progresses. And so what
6:45I'm going to do now is I'm going to
6:46provide some background on what's
6:48happening and then we can um
6:52um
6:54um go try to make predictions about what
6:59might happen. Okay. All right. So I'm
7:00going to share my screen. Okay. So
7:02again, I apologize if I um
7:06if um you guys have problems with this.
7:11I um I'm terrible with technology. All
7:13right. So, I'm going to play this one
7:14from the start. Okay. All right, guys.
7:16Okay.
7:18So, um before the meeting, there was a
7:23meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott
7:25Bessant and his counterpart uh Hul Hifan
7:29in uh New York at the JP Morgan offices
7:32and they were trying to figure out uh a
7:35trade deal.
7:37And as you know there is a pause to the
7:41trade war between United States and
7:42China and um they basically extended by
7:47by a few months. So it didn't seem as
7:49though there was some major results out
7:55of these meetings. They were supposed to
7:57discuss the possibility of establishing
8:00an AI committee global committee to
8:03discuss uh guard rails and all that. I I
8:06mean that happened either. So these
8:09meetings they are happening but for
8:11whatever reason they are extremely
8:14lackluster. Now you can make the
8:17argument and it's a very legitimate
8:18argument that right now US China
8:21relations are under tremendous strain.
8:24Right? So remember there is another US
8:26citizen um I forgot his name but he was
8:30in South China doing some research and
8:32he was apprehended by the Chinese
8:34authorities and detained and arrested
8:37and um on the suspicion of spying u and
8:42that has caused a lot lot of tension
8:44between um China and the United States
8:48also um the United States have accused
8:51China of providing targeting information
8:54um for the Iranians which has allowed
8:58the Iranians to kill Americans. And so
9:01there's a lot of conflict between China,
9:05United States. And what I will say is
9:10um my intuition is that a lot of this
9:15isn't really conflict between the United
9:17States and China. A lot of it is given
9:20factions within both United States and
9:22within China who are trying to uh
9:26railroad each other who are trying to
9:28embarrass each other's factions. Okay.
9:31So another thing this is right now
9:34United States there are certain factions
9:36that want reproachment with China. There
9:38are also many different factions that
9:41want um to
9:44um increase belligerance to increase
9:49this conflict between China and United
9:50States and that's what's really driving
9:53um a lot of these news leaks. Um so uh
9:59that is um um okay.
10:05All right. This is the schedule of the
10:09meeting. And something to remember to to
10:11note is how President President Trump
10:14went directly to the Air Force Joint
10:18Base Andrews to greet uh President C.
10:22And this was a very big deal. Uh the
10:23last time this happened was when Obama
10:26went and greeted uh the Pope. Um, and
10:29this is Trump showing the greatest
10:32hospitality to President C. There was
10:36also a flyover and um um the two first
10:43ladies also spent a lot of time
10:46together. There there was this big state
10:49dinner um and this is only the second
10:51state dinner that Trump has hosted in
10:54his second term. The first was uh for
10:56King Charles. Uh and so again, Trump
10:59thinks very highly of Presidency of
11:02China, and he's he's gone really all out
11:05to welcome uh his friend.
11:09I want to show you this list of CEOs who
11:13attended the um White House banquet.
11:18Now, um sort of things to note about
11:21this list. Number one is it's unusual.
11:25Uh, sorry JL, did you did you have a
11:28question?
11:30Yeah. Could you unmute yourself, JL?
11:34All right. [snorts] All right.
11:37Um, yeah. So, certain things to note
11:40about this list. Number one is these are
11:42all CEOs. There are no cultural figures.
11:46Uh this is unusual because uh
11:49traditionally when there are these um
11:52white house banquetss, cultural figures
11:55are invited. So um you know someone like
11:58Lang Lang who is a Chinese pianist, he
12:00would have been invited maybe maybe uh
12:03uh Khloe Dao who is an Oscarinning
12:06Chinese director. Um she would have she
12:09would have been invited in the past. Um
12:11an actor like Jackie Chan or Michelle
12:13Yao would have been invited in in the
12:15past. So clearly the emphasis is purely
12:19on business. Uh that's point number one.
12:22Point number two is um as you can see
12:25from this list most of these people
12:28happen to work in the AI high-tech
12:31sector and that uh really highlights
12:34Trump's priority. Um, as I've mentioned
12:37many times in previous lectures,
12:40right now there's civil war going on in
12:42the United States between the Wall
12:43Street people as well as the Silicon
12:45Valley oligarchs. And it's really a war
12:48between finance and technology. And this
12:51list shows how um um Trump is being
12:57supported by the Silicon Valley
12:59oligarchs. Now you will see there are uh
13:02financial people on this list including
13:04Larry Frink and Stephen Schwarzman. I
13:07think it's because they sort of straddle
13:09these two worlds between finance and AI.
13:11Larry Fink and Steven Schwarzman are
13:14heavy heavy investors in AI databases
13:17especially Larry Fink. Another thing I
13:19will point out is that Stephen
13:20Schwarzman is very very close with both
13:22the White House and with Jonah High. um
13:24he's he's been in um a very effective
13:27middleman between China and the United
13:29States for the long longest time. So it
13:33shows the priority. So this list of
13:35CACOs shows the list so shows you the
13:38priorities of the White House. Another
13:39thing that I will point out is there
13:42were no Chinese entrepreneurs at the
13:46White House banquet. This is extremely
13:49unusual. Okay. um in May when Trump
13:54visited China, he brought with him most
13:56of these people. Um and China um invited
14:02a lot of their own entrepreneurs. Um so
14:06for example, one of the most famous
14:07pictures taken during that time was
14:10between Le Jun and Elm Mus. El Mus of
14:12course is the world's wealthiest man and
14:14Lelay Jun was at one point uh China's
14:17wealthiest man. I'm not sure if he's
14:18still number one, but for some time he
14:21was number one. And he's considered like
14:22the uh best entrepreneur China has right
14:26now. So, I was extremely taken aback. I
14:29was extremely surprised when um um they
14:33they were not invited to the dinner. And
14:36then you ask yourself, what's going on?
14:38I mean, a lot of things that you would
14:39expect to happen um um are not
14:42happening. So something to appreciate
14:45about Chinese politics is it's
14:48everything in China. It's always
14:50politics number one. Everything else is
14:52second including um economics.
14:56Um so I think that what's really going
14:59on is Trump has been very clear and
15:05direct in his demands. Uh he basically
15:08wants China to open up its financial
15:09sector. He wants um more Chinese
15:13students to come to United States.
15:15Basically, he wants China to invest more
15:17in the United States and allow American
15:20companies make more money in China.
15:22That's what Trump wants. He's he's a
15:23business person, right? And China has
15:25been very very reluctant to do so. And I
15:29don't think it's because China is trying
15:30to protect its own sovereignty. Um I
15:34think it's because no one is in charge
15:37of China right now. No one person has
15:40the authority to make any controvers
15:42controversial concessions. I know this
15:44is a very provocative statement, okay?
15:46But so like let me slowly explain to you
15:48my logic. Okay, my argument to you today
15:51is that China there's no there's really
15:55no one in charge. Um it's rule by
15:57committee. Okay. So there are three
16:01paradoxes that I've seen that I I I saw
16:05during uh uh this summit. Okay. The big
16:10paradox is there were no Chinese
16:12entrepreneurs present. What what this is
16:14important is it violates two important
16:16Chinese principles. The principle of
16:19reciprocity and equality. Okay. So if
16:23you come to my house and um um I invite
16:29these Chinese entrepreneurs then when I
16:31go to your house then then you know it's
16:35expected that I bring Chinese
16:36entrepreneurs to as well. This is the
16:38idea of reciprocity. Um it's like giving
16:40gifts right if I give you a nice gift
16:42you have to return you have to give me a
16:43nice gift back in return. Um it also
16:46violates the principle of equality
16:48right. Um so China sees itself as a peer
16:52to the United States. So the question
16:53then is why is it that all these U you
16:57American um titans of industry were
17:01present but these um uh Chinese titans
17:05of industry were not present. That does
17:07that mean to say that China does not
17:09have any titans? Does it mean to say
17:10that Chinese economy is not important?
17:12It's it's a really weird thing. Okay,
17:15remember in in China um these things
17:18happen for political purposes. So
17:21clearly
17:22um um you know the things were arranged
17:27in order to deliver a certain political
17:29message to the Chinese people. And so
17:31what we're trying to figure out is what
17:32is this message? Okay, that's f that's
17:35the first paradox. The second paradox is
17:40so there was a rumor this year in May
17:43that China would invest $1 trillion
17:46in the United States primarily setting
17:48up these EV factories, right? So China
17:51has these EV cars that are very uh uh
17:56popular, very cheap um and they dominate
17:59the global market. So, there was this
18:02rumor that China would announce a
18:04trillion dollars in um investment in the
18:07United States. It it may still happen.
18:08Remember, there's still three uh months
18:12to go um before the year ends. Um and
18:16they might save it for the G20. Okay? It
18:19may still happen, but it has not
18:20happened yet. And this is very strange
18:23because usually you know when you are u
18:26a Chinese president you come to China
18:28and you come to United States well you
18:30want to show how powerful you are by
18:32offering a major gift and the only thing
18:35that you know presidency has offered so
18:37far is like two pandas right uh that's
18:40kind of strange okay and like the third
18:42paradox is there have been no major
18:45announcements during this summit um in
18:49fact you can argue that um uh things
18:54have regressed since the May summit. Uh
18:56usually they would want to create a
18:58create a narrative where things are
19:00progressing, but it seems as though
19:03there's there's there are these major
19:05setbacks um this um this time around.
19:08Okay. All right. So, this is what Donald
19:12Trump said. Um one major major uh
19:17agreement is China and United States
19:20have agreed to rename artificial
19:21intelligence into super intelligence.
19:24Yippee we did it. Okay. Yay. This is a
19:29major accomplishment guys. We changed
19:31the name. Um again usually a Chinese
19:35president when he visits United States
19:39um he tries to offer a gesture of
19:42goodwill. The judge of goodwill is he
19:44wants to invite 100,000 young Americans
19:46to study in China um over the next five
19:49years. Okay. Sure. Um
19:54Ellen Mus telegraphed this a few days
19:57before the actual announcement which
19:59says that you know um they are in
20:03coronation.
20:05Um, okay. So, to understand what's going
20:09on, uh, you need to understand three
20:11things about China. And I I I know this
20:13is going to be hard. Okay. Once you
20:15accept these three things, then
20:17everything starts to make more sense.
20:19So, when you read, when you consume
20:21media, New York Times, BBC, CNN,
20:24um, you are misled into believing
20:28certain things. And I think that's why
20:31the expectations were so high for the
20:33summit. But I will but living in China,
20:37knowing China very well. Um in fact I
20:39know China better than uh any any other
20:41country in the world. Right? Um I will
20:43say there are three major
20:44misunderstandings about China. The first
20:46and what people don't appreciate is the
20:48Chinese economy is in decline. Okay. It
20:51peaked back in uh 2014 2015 and now it
20:55is in steady
20:57>> decline. Um that's point one. Point two
21:02is Cin is not really in charge of China.
21:07This is I I I I I know this is going to
21:09shock everyone uh in this room, but he's
21:14not in charge. If he were really in
21:16charge, if anyone were in charge, China
21:19would not be behaving the way it's
21:21behaving. China um has been extremely
21:24passive these past uh two years. It's
21:28done really nothing. And this this is
21:31while the world is burning. Um so China
21:34has been extremely quiet and passive.
21:37And a lot of people are saying well this
21:38is just China's strategic long-term
21:43patient thinking. It's that's not true.
21:46It's because no one's in charge. That's
21:48a real reason. Um and so this gets my
21:51third point which is like China does not
21:53is not able to think strategically
21:55because no one's in charge. it can only
21:57respond to crisis like the US invasion
22:00or the US attack on uh Iran. Okay, so
22:03that's my central central um argument to
22:07you today. Okay.
22:11Um so let's get to the first question
22:15which is like why is it like no Chinese
22:17entrepreneurs showed up at the same bank
22:20and a lot of reason why is Chinese
22:23entrepreneurs have been under a lot of
22:25pressure lately. Okay. It started with
22:27um like two three years ago with Jack Ma
22:30falling from grace. But now it's even
22:32extend to uh Ren Jangf who is the
22:35founder of Huawei. Now if you know
22:37China, you know that Huawei, it is a
22:40Chinese military company and it is
22:42probably the most powerful company in
22:43China right now. It receives billions uh
22:47possibly hundreds of billions of dollars
22:49in state subsidies mainly to create its
22:52own semiconductor
22:54uh ecosystem.
22:56And for the past couple of weeks,
23:01um, both Renjan Fate, the founder of
23:04Huawei and his daughter, Mwen Jo have
23:08disappeared.
23:09It is impossible for people to get in
23:12touch with them, including
23:15um the the the executives who work under
23:17them. And this is extremely extremely
23:20unusual. Uh Huawei, it is a public
23:24company
23:26um and it has a massive PR operation in
23:32order to squash any rumors and it has
23:36not done so. So this is extremely uh
23:39unusual and there are certain rumors.
23:42Okay. Uh there are rumors that uh he has
23:46fled the country. I don't know where he
23:48would go to but there are rumors that
23:49he's fled the country. There are rumors
23:52that um he is under investigation.
23:56Um so why would he be under
23:58investigation? Well, it turns out that
24:02um Huawei has been promoting the fact
24:05that it's developed its own
24:06semiconductors that are high-tech and
24:09it's been able to circumvent the US
24:12dominant global supply chain. Right? So
24:14it doesn't need uh fargo machines from
24:18ASML. doesn't need to buy chips from
24:20Nvidia. And it turns out that um
24:26um the rumor is it turns out that uh
24:31this is all BS. It turns out that
24:33whatever innovations Huawei has made um
24:37in these past few years, it's because
24:38they've smuggled in N invidia chips uh
24:41through other sources. And quite
24:44honestly, living in China, being
24:46Chinese, knowing China very well, I
24:48would say it is far more plausible that
24:51Huawei was smuggling in chips than um
24:56Huawei developed its own innovative
24:58semiconductors. Okay, just being being
25:00Chinese and knowing how China works,
25:02Chinese are much more likely to cheat
25:04than to innovate. Okay. So, um
25:08regardless, I think, uh the Huawei first
25:12family is in a lot of trouble and um the
25:17reason why they they haven't announced
25:18this yet is it's completely
25:20embarrassing. It's entirely possible
25:22that um Random Fay will return
25:26um and everyone will pretend nothing
25:28happened. Okay? Uh and the reason why is
25:31it's would be too embarrassing for China
25:34to admit that Huawei was lying to
25:36everyone all along. Okay. Uh but as as
25:40you can see uh because because of this
25:43topic because of of this um um issue the
25:48Chinese would be reluctant to showcase
25:49entrepreneurs at the White House because
25:53it really doesn't know who it can trust.
25:56Okay. All right. Um,
25:59some other news is there are rumors that
26:03the Chinese are investigating Deepseek
26:06and Kim.
26:08Okay, this is huge because Deepseek um
26:12has been a source of tremendous national
26:14pride these past few years. So remember
26:15what happened was that um open AI
26:17released chat GPT and then using a
26:21fraction of the resources of the time of
26:25the personnel of open AI deepseek was
26:28able to create a much more efficient
26:31large language model than chat uh than
26:34than open AI and again this was a source
26:37of tremendous pride. It seems like um
26:41it's not like Deep Seek said that was
26:44because they created more efficient
26:46algorithms um that was able to parse the
26:49internet [clears throat] much more fast
26:51than um um OpenAI. It seems that it
26:55seems like that's not what happened. It
26:56seems what happened was that deepseek
26:57basically created like thousands um
27:02possibly millions of accounts and
27:04basically mirrored or stole the beta
27:07database of um of open AI and just used
27:11it for um itself. It's a practice that
27:15these Chinese um AI companies are
27:18continuing to use. And the problem with
27:20that is
27:22um what's been happening is that Chinese
27:24military personnel have been asking AI
27:26some really sensitive questions and
27:28providing some really sensitive um
27:30Chinese military intelligence to the AI
27:34and and this is going back to um the US
27:39companies. And so basically these US AI
27:42companies are now able to
27:45um have their own um Chinese military
27:50database, have access to the Chinese
27:52military personnel database. And um as a
27:55as a result, this has compromised uh
27:58Chinese national security interests. And
28:02again, guys, I live in China. Chinese
28:05people do not innovate. They just cheat
28:06and they steal. And this is what
28:08happens. Um this this is this is what
28:10happens when when when we you we pull
28:12this crap. Huawei thought it was being
28:14really smart by um smuggling these
28:17Nvidia chips. But these immediate chips
28:19probably had some back door that allowed
28:22um national US um the US NSA to create
28:27back doors to access Huawei secrets.
28:31Okay? Like look look think about this.
28:33Okay? Just just just use just a thought
28:34experiment. For years and years, you
28:38know that Huawei engineers have been
28:40stealing IP left and right from Western
28:44companies. Okay, there are videos of uh
28:47Huawei engineers going into
28:51um you know telecom firms in the United
28:53States and then stealing the hardware.
28:56Okay, there videos like that. If you
28:58know that they're going to do that and
29:01you know that all they're going to do is
29:03reverse engineer what you have and they
29:05don't really know what the source code
29:07is, then um why aren't you going to
29:11create these back doors? Sorry, Liquid
29:13Monk, did you have a question or
29:16comment?
29:20>> Yeah. Could you unmute yourself?
29:22>> Hello. Good afternoon. Uh I have
29:26something to support what you're saying
29:28about the extending the technology. Uh
29:31in 2013 I was in BMW Munish in Germany
29:37and I was having a tour and the tour
29:40guide said that um because of uh by then
29:44German model X6 was being sold very well
29:49in China. So the BMW management decided
29:54to open a factory in China and ship
30:04only
30:11and
30:14from German they investigated the fact
30:18that why is is it happening? that we
30:21don't have any accidents in Germany and
30:24we have a lot of accidents in China. And
30:26if it it popped up that those employees
30:30who were working in in that factory
30:33after 8 hours shift, they were going 60
30:36kilometers away and there was another
30:38factory which was exactly the copy paste
30:42of what the the Germans did in in there
30:45in China. and and uh the reason for that
30:48was just to copy the the whole concept
30:51of the car. So that resulted that the
30:54management pull out everything from from
30:57China and started to shape the cars uh
31:00back as as they were up to the 2012.
31:05But the technology was lost and uh we
31:08have a result that now that the cars
31:11that Chinese are producing are much
31:14better than the cars that we produce
31:16Europe
31:18>> right
31:18>> in in a sense technology is is
31:21everything is power based. So just to
31:25support your your idea because I believe
31:27it's
31:28>> okay thank you. Okay. Um Robert Lee
31:31>> that's true.
31:33>> Oh yes. uh professor song something I
31:36don't agree with you because I work in
31:38semiconductor for over 10 years in 2010
31:43movie AI good connection with Huawei CU
31:46and all these guys but Huawei in fact
31:50before half of their employers is is
31:53foreigners okay but but after 2018
31:57especially Israel okay because Huawei
32:01have a strong team in Israel to dur
32:03semiconductor but after 2018 Huawei shut
32:08a lot why because the USA government see
32:11that if you work in Huawei it's
32:14impossible for you to get to get into
32:16USA that is the biggest problem okay you
32:19should understand that Huawei is is is
32:22facing much much challenges than anybody
32:25can see because the US government use
32:27all their power to against one company
32:30while equipped to be all the technology
32:33all the high-tech gent of the USA it's
32:37it is it's it's the factor and all the
32:40all the chipset suit in China have the
32:44bad have the um have had the bad uh bad
32:47door okay
32:49>> yeah thank you no that's absolutely
32:51right the the United States is intent on
32:54destroying Huawei the reason why is
32:56Huawei has been very successful at
32:57penetrating foreign markets which is a
32:59direct threat to US companies such as
33:02Intel Nvidia and and Apple. And that's
33:05why um US is intent on destroying Huawei
33:08and any companies that are trying to
33:11penetrate into the global market. If
33:13Huawei just stayed in China, then the
33:16United States would obviously no problem
33:18with Huawei stealing every uh American
33:21IP. Um because
33:24>> the US government also
33:26>> Yeah, go ahead. also also in the world
33:29only Huawei can compete with the Silicon
33:32Valley value okay plus Israel okay but
33:36in in fact now the the is the S value
33:39don't have any advantage of the of the
33:41innovation why they don't have the new
33:44technology I totally agree that the A
33:46comp company okay and and as is a
33:49semicconnected innovation why I work in
33:52I'm the guy very deeply work in in in
33:56Israel Okay, I know that for example I
33:58give you a practice example $1 million
34:01US. Okay, if you have some technical
34:04engineers to make some project
34:07you the engineer cannot deliver in in
34:10timely and quality high quality but I
34:14only use one of the budget okay and one
34:18of the 1 million US dollars okay high
34:20engineered in Israel okay the Israel
34:22engineer can deliver in high quality and
34:24timely okay in fact the Israel is is a
34:27core is is a is a center of the semic
34:31innovation
34:32Silicon Valley is gone.
34:33>> Yeah. No, I I Yeah, thank you for
34:35pointing that out. Yes, it's very true
34:37that Silicon Valley has become extremely
34:39corrupt, inefficient, and all they're
34:42interested in is rent syncing. Okay,
34:45they want to control Washington DC and
34:47they want to prevent innovation from
34:50happening. That's why um you know they
34:53are banning these open Chinese open AI
34:57models. Um that No, that's exactly
35:00correct. and and you know that that's
35:01exactly the issue facing um the United
35:05States right now. Okay. All right. So so
35:06let me continue. All right. Let let me
35:09finish this presentation and then then
35:10we can ask questions. But thank you so
35:12much for that Robert Lee um and Liquid
35:15Monk. Okay. So again the Chinese having
35:19problems with their entrepreneurs. Um it
35:23seems as though that these Chinese
35:25technologists have not been transparent
35:28about what's really going on and in fact
35:30a lot of these Chinese technology
35:32companies
35:33um they are cutting corners in order to
35:36please state officials because as
35:39because remember in maybe in the United
35:41States these entrepreneurs like Elmas
35:43they have all the power but in China
35:46these these entrepreneurs no matter how
35:48wealthy they become they are still
35:49servants to the date. Okay. All right.
35:54Um, so another thing that's been
35:56happening and this is really important
35:58is on September 15th, China announced
36:01um, uh, changes to its exit and entry
36:05administration. And basically the thing
36:07to uh remember is now China has the
36:12authority to ban any entrepreneurial and
36:17technological and scientific talent from
36:19leaving the country for no reason
36:21whatsoever. They can just say national
36:23security and they can prevent you from
36:26leaving the the country. And so um I
36:30think this is a response of the fact
36:32that there are a lot of wealthy
36:34entrepreneurs who are trying to flee the
36:37country. So it's really interesting
36:39what's happened these past 30 years
36:41because um you know in 2000 from 2000 to
36:442020
36:46if you were a Silicon Valley engineer
36:48who was of Chinese descent what you
36:50would do is you would take your
36:52knowledge and the code that you create
36:55and maybe you would steal some some IP
36:57as well. you fly back to China to create
37:00a company and you get a lot of financing
37:03and state support in order to do so and
37:05you create a lot of and you made a lot
37:07of money that that way
37:09um and that's what was happening from
37:112000 to about 2020. Okay, these
37:14thousands of these Chinese engineers
37:17coming back from Silicon Valley and then
37:19using their knowledge and knowhow to
37:21create Chinese versions of American
37:24companies and this minted lots of
37:27millionaires and billionaires. But now
37:29what they want to do is take this money
37:31and go to the west because unlike China
37:35there's respect for private property
37:37rights in the western world and China
37:41has been trying very hard to stop this
37:44trend and now it just made the decision
37:47you know what we don't care if you want
37:49to leave uh but you made a lot of money
37:51in this country we won't let you leave
37:54okay um and this is scaring a lot of
37:58very wealthy people. But it just shows
38:00you the tumultuous state um of the
38:03Chinese economy and of the Chinese um
38:06middle class right now. Okay. Um this is
38:12a new book called Broken China by Logan
38:15Wright. I've actually not read the book,
38:18but his central argument, okay, is
38:21something that I've been arguing my
38:22entire life, um my entire time in China,
38:26which is that um in 2008,
38:31um after the subcomm
38:37uh the United States, the Chinese
38:38leadership freaked out uh because they
38:41were afraid that the global economy
38:42would collapse and China would lose its
38:44export market And so the response of the
38:47Chinese government was to invest heavily
38:49in infrastructure spending. This is this
38:51is not because the Chinese think long
38:53term, okay guys? It's not because they
38:55have this great grand vision for how to
38:58foster innovation in China. They do not.
39:01It was a response to the subprime crisis
39:04in the United States. And um this bubble
39:11uh was great for the entrepreneurial
39:15elite, but it's led to lots and lots of
39:17debt. It's it led to a lot lot of
39:18corruption. And now we're living in a
39:20time when they're trying to unwind this
39:22debt, unwind this this corruption. Okay.
39:25So you think that well China, you know,
39:27United States has $40 trillion in debt.
39:29That's really bad. Actually, the Chinese
39:31debt situation is much much worse than
39:33the United States. And people people
39:35don't appreciate this. So if you don't
39:37believe me, then I suggest picking up
39:38this book uh Broken China by Logan
39:41Wright. I'm not going to read it because
39:42this the system I've known uh for a long
39:45long time and people are now slowly
39:47waking up to the fact that um China the
39:51Chinese are not these brilliant
39:54Machavelian strategists. They're just
39:56corrupt as hell. Okay? It's it's that
39:59simple, guys. There's no there's no
40:00magic here. They're just corrupt.
40:04All right, let's continue. All right,
40:07another thing that has been happening in
40:09China that um has gotten a lot of
40:11international attention is the political
40:14struggle within China. So this is the
40:18highest military body in China. You can
40:21say it's really the most powerful body
40:22of China of China. seven people, the
40:25military commission which controls the
40:27military. And
40:30there are supposed to be seven members
40:32and after like three years of purchase,
40:34we are now left with two.
40:37And there are some who say, well, it
40:39just shows the consolidation of power
40:42under sea. Look, if you are a dictator,
40:46you don't want this crap to happen. It
40:47makes you look really, really bad. Okay?
40:50It makes you look like a fool because
40:54think about this, okay? What happened? I
40:56mean, if you're a dictator, what
40:57happened here? Why are you um
41:02why is a seven member commission only
41:04staffed by two people? Well, there are
41:06different possibilities. One is you're
41:08just stupid and you appointed people you
41:09can't trust and you had to fire them.
41:11Which case, why you dictator? Okay,
41:13that's number one. Number two is well
41:15they were corrupt and that's what the
41:16trans media reported but why do you
41:19again why do you appoint corrupt people
41:22to this position okay what this really
41:25shows us is the intense um um u
41:31political struggles within China where
41:33different factions are trying to like
41:35knock off different different people and
41:37because of the intense political
41:38struggle China is in stalemate right now
41:41again this looks China look really
41:43really bad. Seven, there's a seven
41:45member commission. What you should be
41:47doing is replacing these people as you
41:50go. Okay. The fact that this is so open
41:54and it's so blatant and so transparent
41:56shows you like really no one's in charge
41:59and it's just like these different
42:00political factions going after um each
42:04other.
42:06All right. So um having gone through
42:09that I want to explain to you a quick
42:11history of the people's republic of
42:13China so you understand the context in
42:15which all all this political struggle is
42:18happening. And once you understand the
42:19history I think it's pretty fairly
42:21pretty easy to project into the future
42:24and see where China is is heading. The
42:26year is 1949 and America happens. this
42:30gorilla army that has was basically
42:33fighting a gorilla uh insurgency for the
42:37past 20 years is now ruler of China
42:41under mudon and mudon and people don't
42:44appreciate this right they think of him
42:45as this communist ideologue he was not a
42:49communist ideologue he was first and
42:50foremost a mezzanic figure
42:53um who believe that he was god's
42:59champion
43:00who would help Chinese China stand up
43:02and be a dominant power in the world.
43:06And that's why they ushered in something
43:08called the greatly forward. The great
43:10leap forward was a plan with to within
43:12five years to change China from an
43:15agricultural
43:17nation into an industrial powerhouse.
43:19That basically meant just shifting
43:21farmers from the fields to the
43:25factories. Okay? And if you know any
43:28Chinese history, you you will know that
43:30this was a disaster
43:32for China. Uh it led to a great famine
43:36where millions of people cherish. And
43:38the reason why is they focus so much on
43:40industrial production that they forgot
43:43to grow food and because at this time
43:46China was an archy meaning to really
43:49trade with the rest of the world. China
43:52refused to ask for help from the rest of
43:53the world. Rather than just say to the
43:56world, you know what? Um, socialism
43:57doesn't really work guys and we we need
44:00to buy some food from you. Um, they
44:02rather just let their people starve.
44:05Um, eventually the greatly forward, the
44:08famine caused by the greatly fort will
44:09will lead to something called the
44:10cultural revolution which happened
44:11between 1966
44:13um and 1976.
44:15What people don't appreciate about the
44:18cultural revolution is it happened
44:20actually in different phases. Okay. So
44:23because of the great lead forward um
44:26Ma's leadership was challenged by the
44:29rest of the communist party and so the
44:31communist party elite got together and
44:34says listen Mao um you were a great
44:37leader but maybe you're too old and
44:38maybe it's time to transfer power to
44:40younger technocrats who know how to
44:42manage the affairs of the state. and
44:46Maong went with it went along with this
44:48for a few years but then he decided that
44:52you know what I'm the messiah uh people
44:55follow me and these technocrats will
44:59just turn China into a corrupt olararchy
45:03which was the case for thousand years
45:06and why so why do we fight the
45:07revolution so Mosone uh promoted the
45:10cultural revolution where he encouraged
45:12the people to rise up against the
45:15bureaucrats, against the bureaucratic
45:17elite and overthrow them. And for about
45:20two three years, there were these
45:22massive purges of the bureaucratic
45:25elite. But then uh Ma was like, you know
45:28what? Uh these kids, these teenagers,
45:30the red guards are kind of out of
45:32control. So he called in the military to
45:34purge these revolutionaries. Okay, that
45:37that was the second phase of the cult
45:38revolution. And now the military is in
45:41in charge. and Mongon appointed a
45:43successor called Ling Bao who was
45:45basically head of the military but then
45:47they had a falling out and then Ling
45:49Bella uh tried to escape to Russia and
45:51he was killed when his plane crashed and
45:55um that created the third phase of the
45:57cult revolution which is basically China
45:58became a theocracy under Ma Sudon and it
46:02it remained so until 1976 when Mao died.
46:05When Mal died, he appointed a successor
46:08who will continue his legacy. But the
46:12Chinese bureaucratic elite, the the
46:14communist old guard, they got together
46:16and said, "No, we don't want any any
46:19more of this crap. We want be we want to
46:21restore our own power base." And so
46:24under Danoping, they came back. Okay.
46:28Now what's really important for us to
46:30appreciate is from their perspective
46:33from the perspective of the communist o
46:36guard the worst thing that happened to
46:39China was not capitalism it was not um
46:43the sinoviet split it was
46:47ma mez mezzianism okay so they were
46:51afraid of two things one they were
46:55really afraid that a dictator would
46:57arise and um basically restore Ma's
47:02legacy. They were afraid of Maism. They
47:04were also really afraid of people's
47:06religious tendencies because the cult
47:08revolution was a theocracy. Um they were
47:11really afraid of the power of religion.
47:14And so under Danoping they created all
47:16sorts of policies in order to ensure
47:19that these two things maism and
47:21messianism would never ever arise in
47:26China. And to make and then to
47:27facilitate this process the Dona Ping
47:30visited the United States. This is uh
47:33Donoping in Texas putting on a 10gon
47:36hat. And this was of course a diplomatic
47:40breakthrough because it endeared the
47:42American population to you know this old
47:47communist um zealot. And uh this allowed
47:51for uh if China and United States to
47:54eventually establish um a very strong
47:57trading relationship which became the
47:59basis for modern day uh globalization.
48:02But the key for us to remember is that
48:04under Da under Danoping they created
48:07policies to move away from both mauism
48:10and messianism. Okay. And they had
48:12certain rules that they all obeyed.
48:17Okay. Rule number one is the
48:22uh party elite, the revolutionary
48:25vanguard and their children are
48:26untouchable. The princlings are not
48:29touchable. Okay? You can go after other
48:32political opponents, but you cannot go
48:34after the families of the red nobility.
48:39Okay? The red nobility would cheer in
48:42the spoils. They would split up China
48:45and div up the spoils and they would not
48:47go after each other like they did during
48:49the course revolution. Okay? They would
48:51rem maintain unity. That's rule number
48:54one. Um rule number two is never again
48:59will one person be allowed to have all
49:02the power
49:04in China. It will be
49:07consensus. It will be committee
49:09decision- making. um it it it'll be a
49:12very tenocratic tenocratic process.
49:15That's number two. Uh number three is um
49:20from now on the focus will be on
49:24economics.
49:25Okay.
49:27Rule number four is the military will
49:30stay out of political affairs. This is
49:33really important. All right. there's be
49:36a clear democration between the military
49:38and pol the politics. Uh the military
49:42will enjoy the spoils economic reform,
49:46right? To keep them happy, but they will
49:48not engage in political
49:52um affairs. All four rules are important
49:55for us to remember. Okay? Why? Because
49:57they broke broken all four rules today.
50:00And that this is why it's led to this
50:03political stalemate that we have in
50:05China. So to summarize the four rules,
50:07okay, number one is red nobility is
50:09untouchable. Rule number two is there
50:11will never again be a supreme leader
50:13like Maong. Rule number three is just
50:16focus on on economics. Uh and that's
50:19good. And then number four is the
50:21military must stay out of political
50:23affairs. All right. Okay. And I'll show
50:26you that what's happened under Cinping
50:29is they broken all four rule four rules
50:31and that's why China today is a dumpster
50:32fire. Okay. So um Dong did usher in a
50:38time of like a new consensus but there
50:43were certain people who felt left out
50:45and this this was the intellectual class
50:47the universe students and so yeah the
50:51military the red nobility they benefited
50:53from all of those reforms but the
50:56intellectual class felt they wanted to
50:58get involved as well and that's what led
50:59to the tenants square protest and that's
51:01what also led to the crackdown. out and
51:04of course this really damaged China's
51:07international standing and so um when
51:11Dung died and Jung and Jim came to power
51:16they were intent on instit
51:18institutionalizing all four of these
51:21major consensus okay and um under Jung
51:25and they start this process but then
51:28what will h what will happen is that uh
51:30huge will then cement this process
51:33process and one major
51:36um result of this process is massive
51:40spending on infrastructure and a lot of
51:43people are like well this just shows you
51:44how farsighted
51:46uh China is problem is China didn't have
51:48the money to spend on this
51:50infrastructure why they spent money on
51:52this infrastructure again was a response
51:54to a crisis which is 2008 uh great
51:57financial crisis in United States
51:58remember at this time in history China's
52:01main driver of e of economic reform was
52:03its export industry. But once it
52:06recognized that you know what the rest
52:08of the world could go bankrupt and
52:10renegade on um on on trade promises then
52:14China realized it need to spend more
52:15money on infrastructure. And the best
52:18way to understand this infrastructure
52:19spending
52:20like the best way to understand this is
52:22it was not
52:24about building an a modern nation. It
52:27was about trying to appease as many
52:30different political factions as possible
52:32within China. And the best way to do
52:33that is to bribe everyone. Okay? like
52:36like that's how Huin went about were
52:38able to um basically calm things down
52:42while global markets were in turmoil
52:44turmoil like let this rob local elites
52:47let let you know let let these bankers
52:49these real estate developers these
52:50government officials steal together from
52:53the nation and then the the world like
52:56China will be very peaceful and stable
52:58and for the longest time it worked right
53:01until Ping came into power and the
53:05problem with Sidin Ping is he is not of
53:08the tenocratic mode. Okay, he didn't
53:10rise in in the technocracy like the way
53:12that gentleman Jongi Huentau did. He
53:16rose as part of the red nobility. His
53:18father is considered one of the um eight
53:21immortals. Okay. Uh one of the eight
53:24families that rule China and as part of
53:28Danoping's basically giving up all of
53:30spoils, right? They got Shinjzhen. Um
53:32and as you know Shinjzhin is is one of
53:34the wealthiest parts of China today.
53:38What's really so um
53:43when Cing rose to power he was
53:46considered the
53:48uh he was considered a compromised
53:50candidate. Uh um so the red nobility and
53:54the technocratic elite all saw him as
53:58the least likely to rock the boat. Now,
54:01now we can understand how ironic that is
54:04today. Back back back in 20 2012, 2013
54:06when they anointed him, um he was
54:10considered the most stable, the least
54:13likely to rock the boat, the most
54:15consensus candidate. Okay. Um and the
54:18reason why is his opponent was Porsche.
54:21All right. So you had two candidates.
54:23You had Ping, you had Borcheli. Borchai
54:26was charismatic. He was ambitious
54:29and he was a proven leader. Okay. He was
54:33uh when he was mayor of Dalian
54:38um Dalian was one of the fastest growing
54:40cities in the world in China and then he
54:43went over to Chongqing and he basically
54:47promoted cult revolution policies and he
54:50got a lot of state subsidies for
54:52Chongqing. He went out when he went
54:53after the mafia. And so a lot of of
54:57Chinese people thought this is a great
54:59leader, but a lot of Chinese leaders
55:01leaders like, "Oh my god, if he comes to
55:04power, he'll probably end up like Ma
55:06Zone." And so of these two, Sin Ping,
55:10who at that time had absolutely no major
55:12accomplishments and Bilai, a very
55:14charismatic, ambitious person, you
55:16always pick the other guy. Okay? You
55:18pick the guy who is less likely to rock
55:20the boat. But then what happened is a
55:24series of events that um no one really
55:27expected and which allowed Cinping to
55:31cement power in a way that was
55:33unprecedented
55:35um in modern Chinese politics. Okay,
55:38remember Dano Ping created all these
55:40institutional systems to ensure no one
55:43like Maong would arise again and then
55:45slowly
55:47uh Singping broke down all these
55:49systems. All right. So the first thing
55:52that happened is that after the party
55:56elders after the Chinese picked Borilai
56:00sorry picked Singi Ping to be leader
56:02Borilai states a coup. Okay. He tried to
56:06wrestle power from uh Xiinping and that
56:10and this made the party leadership um um
56:16HH did do you have a question or
56:18comment?
56:21>> Oh J uh yeah uh just just like a really
56:24quick question. Um can you I think that
56:26slide you had was like Tenement Square,
56:28wasn't it? Can you just comment on
56:29Tenement Square and do you think it was
56:31a like a genuine democracy protest or
56:34like a CIA color revolution thing? Sorry
56:36for interrupting. I just like a quick
56:38question. Yeah.
56:40>> Yeah. So um I what I said was tenon
56:42square was a response by the
56:45intellectual class to what they what
56:48they felt was being left behind by these
56:51reforms. Okay. So the reforms that the
56:53party was instit was was in instituting
56:57benefit primarily the military as well
56:59as well as the red nobility and the
57:02intellectual class felt that um they
57:06were being left left behind. One thing
57:07that they really protested uh one demand
57:10that they had was at this time um like
57:13China was still a socialist country. So
57:15you went to a university in China and
57:17you graduated. They sent you off to like
57:19a farway place in the middle of nowhere
57:21to work as a bureaucrat and you were
57:23like screw that I want to be in Beijing
57:24or Shanghai. Okay. So I I wouldn't say
57:27it was a color revolution. I wouldn't
57:28even say it was a dem democracy protest.
57:30It was really about um a privileged
57:34group group in society university
57:36students who wanted more power and more
57:38rights. And honestly after after 10
57:40minutes square they got what they got
57:42everything that they wanted. Okay. Um,
57:45that's what I that's what I think
57:46happened. All right. Okay. So, back to
57:49Borilai. He stages his coup d'eta and so
57:53the partip party leadership had no
57:55choice but to rally around Siing Ping
57:56and give him more power in order to
57:58stamp out the threat of Borilai because
58:01remember um under Dou Ping different
58:04families control different regions in
58:06China. So this one guy was able to
58:09summon an ar could possibly summon an
58:10army of millions. And so the only way to
58:13stamp out this threat was for everyone
58:15to unify under Sing Ping. Okay. Um and
58:21so uh but there's a rule like the red no
58:24is not is not touchable. He can't
58:25actually kill this guy. So he's not
58:27under house arrest even though he did
58:29try to uh launch a coup d'eta against
58:31the communist party. Okay. So that's one
58:33major event that helped to solify and
58:35consolidate seiz.
58:38Another major event was a trade war,
58:39right? because um after Donald Trump and
58:44C's being met, Donald Trump basically
58:48launched a trade war against China and
58:51that really helped to solidify C's power
58:55because um previously a lot of the power
58:59was centered in the entrepreneurial
59:01middle class but because they were under
59:03threat from this trade war that allow
59:06the political system to consolidate more
59:09power. Okay, so that's number two.
59:11Number three, of course, and the most
59:12important is CO. Um, I was in China
59:15during CO and when CO first happened, I
59:19was like, oh, you know, this will last a
59:22like maybe two days and it'll go away.
59:24And I know this because in 2003, I also
59:26experienced SARS. And what happened was
59:28that for like during SARS, there was no
59:31government mandate. There was no
59:32government order. People just decided to
59:34lock themselves in the in apartments for
59:36two weeks and then SARS went away.
59:38That's how diseases work. That's how
59:40these viruses work. There has to be like
59:42these um like uh infection points,
59:45contagion points for it to spread. And
59:47people are just in their apartments.
59:48Then this thing goes away really
59:50quickly. And if you know about viruses,
59:52you know, like their uh malicious
59:55nature, their mealinity,
59:58it decreases over time. Um but instead,
1:00:02China chose to lock down the country for
1:00:04four years, which is really weird. But
1:00:06what it but why that happened is it
1:00:09allowed Ciinping to consolidate power
1:00:12onto himself. He created this huge
1:00:14bureaucracy around him um to in order to
1:00:19uh deal with COVID. Now to be fair,
1:00:22okay, what I do know is when the virus
1:00:25first broke out in Wuhan, it was a
1:00:28boweapon. It was killing a lot of
1:00:30people. The reporting back then was that
1:00:32when you first got the virus in Wuhan,
1:00:35your lungs burned. They're like a
1:00:37furnace, right? So, it was a real
1:00:39serious threat. And that's what gave C
1:00:41the authority to lock down the entire
1:00:43country for four years uh and create
1:00:46this really absurd authoritarian regime.
1:00:50Look, look, look. This is a picture of
1:00:53um guys getting swabs.
1:00:56If you're a medical professional, you
1:00:59know for a fact these swab tests are not
1:01:01very accurate. Okay? Don't tell me that
1:01:06like just by swabbing your your mouth,
1:01:08I'm able to diagnose effectively whether
1:01:11or not you have COVID. It was all just
1:01:13theater. Okay. But but if you got
1:01:17unlucky, okay, if you got if you tested
1:01:18positive, well, you were sent to the
1:01:21detention center for a month. It this is
1:01:23what's worse in the cultural revolution.
1:01:25Okay? And why they did this was it
1:01:26allowed CDP to consolidate power uh
1:01:31under himself.
1:01:33And um the other thing that he did that
1:01:35was really important was he collapsed
1:01:37the real estate bubble. Now to be fair
1:01:41a lot of things he did I actually agree
1:01:42with because remember I said that during
1:01:44the huena wbal period it was just
1:01:47blatant corruption um and it was just
1:01:49too much debt and he inherited this mess
1:01:52and he had he had to take certain steps
1:01:54in order to address these issues or or
1:01:57they would just blow up. Um um and I I
1:02:01agree with what he did with in the real
1:02:03estate market, which is he basically
1:02:05caused the real estate bubble to
1:02:08collapse by refusing to bail out
1:02:12companies uh that were in default. Okay,
1:02:15so Everrand was the classic example
1:02:17where it was basically a Ponzi scheme
1:02:19and they thought they were too big to
1:02:21fail. they could always secure funding
1:02:23from the local government and uh see put
1:02:26an end to that and that has caused this
1:02:29um cascading effect it's just chain
1:02:32reaction where China's real estate
1:02:34market has collapsed and and again I
1:02:36think this is a very positive thing um
1:02:39because the real estate market was
1:02:40completely unsustainable
1:02:42um but uh that's also allowed him to
1:02:44consolidate power
1:02:47um so these are things that he was not
1:02:49really in control of but there are
1:02:50things that that were happening and it
1:02:53was clear
1:02:55that um he might have had some part in
1:02:59them. Okay. So remember how high said in
1:03:011980s basically the bureaucratic elite
1:03:04got together and says like you know we
1:03:05agree not to kill each other the way
1:03:09that that we were killing each other
1:03:10during the cult revolution. Okay like we
1:03:12agree to play by certain rules and
1:03:15conventions. We agree to play nice. And
1:03:17Stephen Ping broke all these rules. So
1:03:19one example is um so um this is Ling Jin
1:03:24Hua and Ling Xin Hua is actually the
1:03:27secretary to President Huenta. If you
1:03:30know anything about the Chinese system,
1:03:32you know that these people are extremely
1:03:34powerful people because they are the
1:03:36gatekeepers, right? So if you want to
1:03:37meet uh Huenta, you have to go through
1:03:40this guy. Also, um he's basically Huaw's
1:03:43backman. Okay? So if you want to bribe
1:03:45Huenta for anything, you have to bribe
1:03:47this guy. Um, early on in Singin Ping's
1:03:51tenure,
1:03:52Ling Hua's son died in a Ferrari car
1:03:55crash and it was pretty morbid. Okay.
1:03:59Um, the details have have not been um
1:04:03have not been confirmed, but there were
1:04:05rumors that like like the guy was naked
1:04:08with like two other girls and they were
1:04:10both drunk when they had this horrific
1:04:13car crash. because of this horic
1:04:16horrific car crash. There's a massive
1:04:18investigation into uh Ling Jingua the
1:04:21father, Linguis's son, and they found
1:04:24out of course he was corrupt and so they
1:04:26jailed him and this did a lot in
1:04:28destroying Huenta's power base.
1:04:32There are rumors that this is complete
1:04:34setup that um um basically they some
1:04:40secret police um create c create a
1:04:44situation in order to implicate the
1:04:46father. Okay. Um and you know lingua
1:04:48himself believes that his son is
1:04:51innocent and his son was basically
1:04:53murdered in order to frame him. Okay.
1:04:56But this uh event and and again I can't
1:04:59confirm the veracity of what happened.
1:05:02Okay. The Chinese authorities say was
1:05:03say it was an accident. I can't say it
1:05:05was accident or not. But this did um uh
1:05:08weaken
1:05:10power base and allow she to further
1:05:13consolidate power. Another thing is
1:05:17the New York Times got hold of W Java's
1:05:20financial records which is by the way
1:05:23impossible
1:05:25to do. I actually know the reporter who
1:05:27broke the story. Okay. So, in 2012,
1:05:30there was a New York Times reporter,
1:05:31David Barbar Roa, who broke the story of
1:05:35the Wal family's corruption.
1:05:38And to do break to break the story, he
1:05:41went through thousands and thousands of
1:05:44SEC filings.
1:05:47And honestly, um, maybe if you had a
1:05:50staff of 10,000, you had like 10,000
1:05:52years, you could pull this off. He was a
1:05:54he was able to pull this off in a matter
1:05:56of days which tells me like someone was
1:05:58feeding him this information. Yes, I
1:06:00understand you did go for the filings
1:06:02and yes you did prove that these
1:06:05companies tie back to the WA family. I
1:06:08understand that. Okay. But someone had
1:06:09to point you put you in the right
1:06:10direction. It was like trying to find a
1:06:11needle in the haststack. Someone had to
1:06:13tell you exactly where to look for you
1:06:15to find that. All right. So uh and then
1:06:18you we can speculate as to who might
1:06:20have pointed this reporter for the New
1:06:22York Times in the right direction. Okay.
1:06:25And we can also say like because of the
1:06:28scandal wal power base was severely
1:06:31depleted that allow C to further
1:06:33consolidate power. Again you're not
1:06:35supposed to do this crap there. There's
1:06:36a consensus where the top leadership
1:06:39would not engage in these political
1:06:40struggles against each other because
1:06:42they did this during the cultural
1:06:43revolution. They know exactly what what
1:06:44happened during the cultural revolution.
1:06:46Um, so you can see Dungeon Ping's
1:06:48consensus uh breaking down.
1:06:52Um, you would also have like these
1:06:55really silly leaks where somehow US
1:06:58intel got news that the US Army had
1:07:01missiles filled with water instead of
1:07:03fuel. Okay. And this
1:07:08>> Sorry guys. Um, could you please mute
1:07:10yourself? Okay.
1:07:13And um the the big um um thing is in 20
1:07:202022
1:07:22Xinping was able to get a third term. So
1:07:26the constitution says that a president
1:07:28should only be in power for two terms.
1:07:30He's he broke that convention uh
1:07:32established by Dja Ping and and his
1:07:35people. and now and he got a third term
1:07:38and the peak of his power was um getting
1:07:42a third term but also having hua
1:07:45escorted out of the great hall of the
1:07:48people and there's a lot of uh
1:07:50speculation as to what happened
1:07:53um why hujint was es escorted out um the
1:07:57thing to remember is whenever something
1:07:59is televised in China it's a highly
1:08:02choreographed event they spend days with
1:08:06thousand people figuring out the camera
1:08:07angle, the lighting,
1:08:10the um clothes leader uh the clothes
1:08:13that that the leaders wear, the um um
1:08:17how the leaders are depicted. Okay, they
1:08:20spent a lot of time on this. They have
1:08:23like each of these guys uh even a uh
1:08:27provincial leader will have thousands in
1:08:29in a PR office just going coming over
1:08:32how this person is portrayed on the
1:08:34internet and in the uh media. Okay, this
1:08:38is really important uh for these people.
1:08:40So So the idea like okay well Huin
1:08:44shouldn't have been there and they have
1:08:45to remove him because you know he got
1:08:47lost somewhere that's absurd. This is
1:08:49this is a highly choreographed event
1:08:50meant to embarrass Hujin Tao uh to show
1:08:54that Sidin Ping was in the ascendency.
1:08:58Okay. So 2022 basically the consensus
1:09:02that Trump sorry the consens consensus
1:09:05that Donoping had established was now
1:09:07completely broken and now you have one
1:09:10man in charge. The problem is, okay, and
1:09:15and and this is hard for this is really
1:09:17important for you guys to remember is
1:09:19China's much too big for one person to
1:09:24control. Also, Mao was a messiah who
1:09:28proved himself the Messiah by obtaining
1:09:31power through the will of God. Um, this
1:09:34guy, he inherited his throne. Okay. So
1:09:39because he saw himself as ma basically
1:09:43all these different political factions
1:09:45decided they needed to get rid of this
1:09:47guy and the and the best way to do that
1:09:49is you destroy
1:09:51the people who who who who was who who
1:09:53who he put into power. Okay. So in
1:09:58China, personnel is politics, politics
1:10:01is personnel. That the way you um
1:10:04basically uh struggle against each other
1:10:06for power is by going after each
1:10:09person's associates. Okay? So the first
1:10:11person to fall was foreign minister
1:10:13Ching Gang. And this is a huge scandal
1:10:15in China where Chingang was personally
1:10:17appointed by President Xiinping. And
1:10:20then um news got out that he had a
1:10:23concubine
1:10:25uh who being a decided to have a
1:10:29child in the United States. So this
1:10:32child was a US citizen. The child's
1:10:34father was Ching Gang. Okay. And so um
1:10:39this this got out. We can speculate as
1:10:41to how they got the news. I I I would
1:10:43imagine that they got the news from the
1:10:44Americans. Um so so uh one thing to
1:10:49appreciate is these US spies work very
1:10:51very closely with these Chinese spies
1:10:52because ultimately um um what they're
1:10:56interested in are these domestic
1:10:58political struggles as opposed to these
1:11:00international um political struggles and
1:11:02so he was forced to resign. Then the
1:11:06defense minister very shortly was forced
1:11:08to resign because of corruption and it
1:11:12and again people struggle as to like how
1:11:14this happened.
1:11:16Then
1:11:18um you have two generals who are forced
1:11:21to resign because of corruption. Okay.
1:11:24So all these rules that Dung had
1:11:27established in 1980s to to make to
1:11:29ensure that Malism would never arise
1:11:31again. Okay. Number one
1:11:34um
1:11:36um um never allow someone to consult all
1:11:39power. Number two, um avoid
1:11:44um like don't allow the military to
1:11:47engage in politics. Uh number three,
1:11:50make sure everything is consensus. Um
1:11:54number four, focus on economy. It's all
1:11:56being destroyed now. Okay, the military
1:11:58is now forced into all these these
1:12:00political factions, uh factionalism,
1:12:02which is destroying the military's
1:12:04capacity to maintain order. And in fact,
1:12:07you can now argue like the military is a
1:12:08source of a lot disorder in China today.
1:12:12And you have like again seven members
1:12:16in this military commission and now you
1:12:19only have two. Everyone else has been
1:12:22replaced. The most important has been
1:12:25Junga. Jongosa was considered the
1:12:29military equivalent to Xiinping. Xinping
1:12:32was in control of politics but was in
1:12:35control of the gun. Okay. So again
1:12:39remember in the Chinese system these two
1:12:41forces are meant to be parallel with
1:12:44each other. In theory the politics
1:12:46controls the gun but in reality they're
1:12:48supposed to be equal. And Jang Xiao's
1:12:51father is also another major general. So
1:12:53he has the pedigree the credibility to
1:12:56counter uh singing pinging. And um
1:13:00there's a lot of rumors, there's a lot
1:13:02of speculation that Jung Sha was behind
1:13:05a lot of the purges against Cian Ping's
1:13:08people and uh Jao was trying to
1:13:11constrain Cing's power. But because um
1:13:15Cinping is a president and they didn't
1:13:18want things to blow out of control, they
1:13:21agreed to let him stay in power. In
1:13:24response, Cinping decided that he would
1:13:28basically
1:13:29um cross Rubicon and he ordered the
1:13:33arrest of Jung Yosha. Um and there are
1:13:36rumors that actually Junga is dead but
1:13:39um January this year Jung Sha was
1:13:42arrested
1:13:43and a couple weeks ago he has been
1:13:46expelled uh by the party for
1:13:49factionalism. Okay. for engaging in
1:13:51fascism and um
1:13:55um and so
1:14:00China right now it's just a dumpster
1:14:01fire. No one's in control and they're
1:14:04all trying to destroy each other which
1:14:08basically means that Shining Ping
1:14:11himself has absolutely no power. Um, one
1:14:14thing that that is really strange is um
1:14:18for so this is this is all the list of
1:14:21his foreign trips in 2023
1:14:24and as you can see it's really not that
1:14:25much. He doesn't really go out that
1:14:27much. 2025 he look look at all these
1:14:30countries Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia,
1:14:33Russia Kazakhstan, South Korea. What the
1:14:36thing that distinguishes these places is
1:14:38they're really close to China. So this
1:14:40guy when he leaves he doesn't go that
1:14:43far and the reason why is because of so
1:14:45much political struggles within the
1:14:47country you need to make sure that
1:14:49you're around to make sure you know the
1:14:52different factions don't conspire
1:14:53against you. Um this is even more
1:14:55blatant in 2026 where for the first half
1:14:58of the year he really didn't go out but
1:15:00then we see forever reason August se
1:15:03September he's going to a lot of places
1:15:06and we can speculate as to why. Okay,
1:15:08one speculation again, we can only
1:15:10speculate because the Chinese system
1:15:12it's a it's a political blackbox. Um, we
1:15:15can speculate that
1:15:17um he's consolidated power and so he's
1:15:20invincible and so he he can do whatever
1:15:22he wants. Okay, that's one possibility.
1:15:25Another possibility is he's stripped of
1:15:27all power because his personnel, the
1:15:29people loyal to him are have been
1:15:30stripped of their power and so he's he's
1:15:33lame president. uh next year uh he'll be
1:15:37replaced and so
1:15:40uh his job is now to go out and
1:15:42represent China and
1:15:45um and one piece of evidence to support
1:15:49this. Okay, I I'll show you guys this is
1:15:53he does not look healthy. All right, if
1:15:55you're a Supreme dictator, you you tend
1:15:57to have a certain confidence to you. You
1:15:58have a certain swagger to you. If you
1:16:01just look at um how he's been behaving
1:16:05um
1:16:07um
1:16:09then
1:16:10uh you'll you'll see he is not um sorry
1:16:14I need to um so
1:16:24okay all right
1:16:26>> professor you're only sharing the
1:16:29Okay. All right. So, I want to show you
1:16:31guys this. Okay.
1:16:34All right. I want I'll show you guys
1:16:35this. Okay. This is in 2023 when he's um
1:16:40visiting Watch San Francisco.
1:16:54And by 2023, he looks pretty tired.
1:17:02I mean, he does not look like a supreme
1:17:03leader.
1:17:06I mean, compare him like Putin or Modi
1:17:09or Trump really,
1:17:14right? Okay. But
1:17:18I want to show you guys another video.
1:17:21All right.
1:17:34Okay,
1:17:44this is um
1:17:46two days ago when she came to
1:17:53uh the United states. And look, look at
1:17:56this. Okay, he's holding he look the way
1:17:59he holds on to his wife's hand and look
1:18:02at the way like he
1:18:06is walking down the stairs.
1:18:11He does not look healthy.
1:18:14Okay.
1:18:22Okay. So that is it. I have finished my
1:18:28presentation.
1:18:30Uh I'm sure you guys have lots of
1:18:32questions.
1:18:34So let's uh let's get started again
1:18:38guys. Um we let's just focus
1:18:42on this topic, okay? because it's really
1:18:44important that we understand what's
1:18:46going on because US China relations uh
1:18:49are will be really important and well
1:18:52China's China is really important. Okay.
1:18:53So um let's uh let's start with uh
1:18:56Baron.
1:18:58>> Okay. Uh yes. So uh actually I also
1:19:02noticed the same thing you did um about
1:19:05like he had to hold Pang's hand as he
1:19:09walked down the airplane steps. Um, and
1:19:12then he also uh when he was on the
1:19:14ground, he also seemed kind of nervous
1:19:17or agitated. He kept uh she kept um
1:19:21having to like look left and right in
1:19:23order I don't know what he was trying to
1:19:25see but
1:19:26>> he looked surprisingly nervous and then
1:19:29like the expressions of the other uh
1:19:32like security members and the Chinese uh
1:19:36governors who are like with him um they
1:19:39also seem to have different reactions
1:19:42when they were meeting with President
1:19:44Trump. She just seemed kind of normal,
1:19:47but the other people were like excited
1:19:49and then some of the people seem
1:19:51indifferent. It just seems very
1:19:52scattered. Um, but the actual thing I
1:19:56wanted to focus on was the uh is about
1:20:01uh something I think you kind of skipped
1:20:04over in Canada, but I think someone
1:20:06mentioned it during a question uh about
1:20:08potach fertilizer which is uh potassium
1:20:12fertilizer
1:20:13um which is mined uh from Canada which a
1:20:18big portion of it uh like the world
1:20:20global supply of pesh fertilizer. Uh
1:20:24some of it is mined in can uh Canada and
1:20:28you uh the other two countries you get
1:20:30it from are from Bellarus and Russia. Um
1:20:34but in this case uh for Canada uh if you
1:20:40uh if you run sorry I'm going to sorry I
1:20:43need to organize my thoughts better.
1:20:45>> No worries. No worries. Um, so for
1:20:47fertilizer, you basically you don't have
1:20:49a good substitute for pot ash
1:20:52fertilizer. You can try to burn wood ash
1:20:54and like try to reactivate with salt or
1:20:56whatever, but you need like a ton ton of
1:20:58industrial process that you can't set up
1:21:00immediately. Um, so, uh, in the
1:21:04situation that the United States does
1:21:07attempt some sort of invasion of Canada
1:21:10and that pawn fertilizer supply trade is
1:21:13disrupted, uh, what would happen or like
1:21:16what would China try to do about that?
1:21:19Um,
1:21:21>> yeah. Okay. So,
1:21:25um, look, there there will be no US
1:21:27invasion of Canada. It's not going to
1:21:29happen. I I know that Mark Carney has
1:21:31been talking about it. I know that Mark
1:21:33Carney is like, "Well, you know, we'll
1:21:34just do a guerilla warfare and we're
1:21:37ready for the US." It's just politics. I
1:21:40mean, it's just optics. There's no way
1:21:41the United States will actually launch a
1:21:43ground invasion of Canada. Um, look look
1:21:47at what what happened uh in Greenland,
1:21:50right? where okay for a few months Trump
1:21:53was talking about invading Greenland but
1:21:56ultimately they signed a deal where uh
1:21:58United States has this access to
1:22:00Greenland and um basically it just
1:22:05Denmark recognizing that the United
1:22:06States is too powerful militarily and
1:22:08there's actually no point in trying to
1:22:09resist so let's just save face and sign
1:22:11a treaty I think the same thing will
1:22:13happen in Canada and you're absolutely
1:22:16right Baron in that what Trump really
1:22:18wants is to control over Canadian
1:22:20resources.
1:22:22And um why he wants that is to be able
1:22:26to pressure China into making lots and
1:22:29lots of trade concessions and fertilizer
1:22:32is a very important uh part of that. So
1:22:36um I think this thing will resolve
1:22:38itself naturally where the Chinese are
1:22:41extremely problematic, the Canon people
1:22:42are extremely problematic and Trump is a
1:22:45business person and they'll come to an
1:22:47agreement at some point. But the bigger
1:22:51issue is not fertilizer. You can always
1:22:54access fertilizer. The problem is just a
1:22:57breakdown in global supply chains. We
1:22:59have absolutely no idea how
1:23:02consequential
1:23:03um things will be if you break down
1:23:06global supply chains. Okay. So, it's not
1:23:08just that fertilizers are part of the
1:23:10global supply chain. It's everything is
1:23:13part of the glob global supply chain.
1:23:15And so, um we haven't really gone up
1:23:20into we haven't really game out or war
1:23:23game out what a breakdown in global
1:23:25supply chain looks like. No one's done
1:23:27it. And the reason why is it is
1:23:29horrifying to even contemplate the
1:23:32possibility that global trade stops.
1:23:35Okay. Did you are are you okay with that
1:23:38answer, Baron? Or or or
1:23:40>> Yeah. Uh yes, I think that's fine. Um
1:23:44Okay. And then Yeah, because I was later
1:23:46going to ask about soybeans and uh corn
1:23:49being used for animal feed. Yeah, it's
1:23:52the same thing where yeah, China China's
1:23:54getting a lot of beans from Brazil right
1:23:56now and Trump will eventually pressure
1:23:58pressure pressure pressure Brazil uh
1:24:00into signing a western hemisphere trade
1:24:03pack. So like you know when when you so
1:24:05China's not negotiating with these
1:24:07countries individually but negotiating
1:24:10with um all these countries via the
1:24:13United States. That's what Trump really
1:24:14wants.
1:24:16>> Okay. Thank you.
1:24:17>> All right. Uh JD, you're next.
1:24:20Uh hi professor. Uh so I wanted to ask
1:24:23like what is the macro impact of this
1:24:26USChina relationship because as you have
1:24:28said that the world is moving towards a
1:24:30multipolar world. So China and US cannot
1:24:32be a dual polar power. So is this just a
1:24:35win effort to try to save the supply
1:24:37chain and economy which will eventually
1:24:39collapse?
1:24:40>> Yeah. So really, China and United States
1:24:44are the two main beneficiaries of
1:24:47globalization.
1:24:49And so both are status quo powers. And
1:24:52so both are stuck working together to
1:24:55try to save the global economy in a time
1:24:58of war. And unfortunately,
1:25:02I don't think either really wants to do
1:25:05this. They're kind of stuck doing it. Uh
1:25:08they don't have a choice in the matter.
1:25:10And if they don't do it, then they'll
1:25:11suff suffer even more. So they're
1:25:13reluctant partners basically.
1:25:17>> Okay. And what is the role of tech
1:25:20oligarchs like Elon Musk and this like
1:25:21as an actor in the game? What is the
1:25:23incentive they're working towards
1:25:25specifically to collaborate with China
1:25:27or associations?
1:25:28>> Excuse me.
1:25:30>> What was what is their role?
1:25:34>> What is their role as an actor in the
1:25:35game? Can you hear me?
1:25:37>> Which country?
1:25:39>> No. I was asking what is the role of
1:25:41tech oligarchs like Elon Musk as an
1:25:43actor in the game? Like what are they
1:25:44buying as an incentive in the game?
1:25:46>> Yeah, they they just want to get more
1:25:48money for themselves. They they want
1:25:49access to the China market. They want
1:25:51more subsidies from the Chinese
1:25:53government. Okay. So, for example, um
1:25:55you guys have may may know about, you
1:25:58know, China and United States
1:26:00collaborating together on like an AI
1:26:02governance board, right? To prevent AI
1:26:04from kill killing humanity. What this
1:26:07really is, it's an attempt on the part
1:26:09of oligarchs, these technies
1:26:13from the government, right? Because um
1:26:17how do you ensure these tech companies
1:26:19don't go go out of control? Well, you
1:26:21you nationalize them. You you you and so
1:26:24um when you nationalize them, what
1:26:26happens is like these tech argued
1:26:28the gains and socialize the losses. And
1:26:31that's like like like we're living in a
1:26:33time when everyone's trying to steal as
1:26:34much as possible.
1:26:37Right. Uh, professor, something I've
1:26:39noticed in your thinking is you seem
1:26:41reluctant to attribute major outcomes to
1:26:44randomness or coincidence. So, what
1:26:46makes you lean towards a purposeful
1:26:48explanation rather than just accepting
1:26:50that things may be random?
1:26:52>> Okay. Um, that that's a good point. But,
1:26:55uh, during my presentation, I did say
1:26:57certain things were random. Okay. So,
1:26:58for example, number one, the co thing, I
1:27:00think there's certain randomness into
1:27:02it. I don't think uh they purposely plan
1:27:05out the lab league. If they did, I'd be
1:27:08very impressed, but I don't think China
1:27:09has actually had has a capacity to
1:27:11actually execute something like that to
1:27:14the extent. Okay. Um I think the co lab
1:27:16league was just was just a u u an
1:27:19accident. That's random. Um I also said
1:27:23that Borchai trying to stage a coup
1:27:25d'eta um that was pretty random as well.
1:27:28and seating ping is just a major
1:27:30beneficiary of these events. But then I
1:27:33also point out there are certain things
1:27:34that happen that were probably not
1:27:36random. For example, the car crash. So
1:27:39um I'm trying I'm not saying like you
1:27:41know one random event. I'm just saying
1:27:43like you know if you look at a pattern
1:27:44of things um Okay.
1:27:47>> Right. Uh thank you professor. It's
1:27:49speaking to
1:27:50>> Okay. Uh Erin you're next.
1:27:53>> So who is the main opposition of she?
1:27:57who is his rifle and do you have any
1:27:59prediction for the 2027 turn supreme
1:28:03leader?
1:28:05>> So I think
1:28:07>> yeah no that that that's a great point.
1:28:08So so one thing I didn't do was go into
1:28:10the different political factions. Okay.
1:28:13So here's the best way to understand or
1:28:16in a very simple way. Okay. China has a
1:28:19lot of provinces. Each of these
1:28:21provinces is controlled by a political
1:28:23click. All right. Um and these political
1:28:27clicks can choose to align with each
1:28:30other. Um so that's the best way to
1:28:32understand it. So basically uh President
1:28:34C has control over Beijing and is the
1:28:37best in the best interest of these
1:28:38provinces to go along with um orders
1:28:43from Beijing in order to project
1:28:45stability. But if things get really bad,
1:28:48then what will happen is these promises
1:28:49will break away. And I think this is
1:28:51something that that will happen in the
1:28:52next 10 years. Um I I I think um look at
1:28:56all empires. It's basically these
1:28:58different warlords or these different
1:28:59provincial governors who basically make
1:29:02the decision it's probably better for
1:29:03them to get along than to fight fight
1:29:05each other because you know fighting
1:29:06each other there's too much cost. But
1:29:08you always reach a point when well you
1:29:11know uh we can't settle anything
1:29:13politically so so so we're forced to
1:29:16fight things out and I think that China
1:29:18is heading in that direction. I mean the
1:29:20fact that you have only two members of
1:29:22the seven member military commission
1:29:24still active tells you a lot about how
1:29:27bad things have deteriorated in China.
1:29:30Okay.
1:29:32>> Thank you.
1:29:33>> All right. Um Mele
1:29:39um can you hear me?
1:29:40>> Yeah. Go ahead.
1:29:41>> Yes. I have a question on the US
1:29:43treasuries holdings from China. Um I
1:29:46think they went down from like 1.2 2
1:29:49trillion to right now like 600 billion.
1:29:52Do you think there could be um like a
1:29:54deal between the US and China to say
1:29:57China has to buy a lot of more
1:29:59treasuries but get like Taiwan in maybe
1:30:0210 years because the yields are really
1:30:04hurting um the US um like economy. What
1:30:08do you think?
1:30:09>> Yeah, that's a good question. Yeah. So,
1:30:10this is something that I've been
1:30:11thinking a lot about. Okay. So, so let
1:30:13me explain what's going on. All right.
1:30:15So, what is what are US treasuries? US
1:30:18treasuries um um um are just debt right
1:30:22so why does China have so much US debt
1:30:25it's because of the trade imbalance
1:30:26where Chinese makes make a lot of goods
1:30:30and then um sell it to United States and
1:30:34China doesn't really buy things from the
1:30:36United States okay and that creates a
1:30:38trade imbalance and this trade balance
1:30:40shows up in US treasuries right because
1:30:42when you sell things to the United
1:30:46States they pay you in US You can take
1:30:48the US dollars and buy US treasuries.
1:30:50Okay. So, basically another way of
1:30:54saying this is US treasuries
1:30:57is a way for China to bribe the United
1:31:01States to let China export its goods to
1:31:06the United States. All right. Now, why
1:31:09would China want this? Well, first of
1:31:11all, it's because China is a plantation
1:31:13economy. It's a slave economy where all
1:31:16that matters is the elite. The people
1:31:17don't the people are just energy to be
1:31:19extracted, right? So from the
1:31:21perspective of the elite, this is a
1:31:23great deal because you're just taking um
1:31:27Chinese labor in your you are then um
1:31:33selling it for US dollars which they
1:31:34which they can use to go to the United
1:31:36States and uh spend money on. Okay,
1:31:39that's one real advantage to China.
1:31:41Another advantage for China is it keeps
1:31:43people busy. It keeps people employed.
1:31:45Right. Right. So, um uh even though
1:31:48Chinese workers aren't paid that much,
1:31:50they at least have something to do. It's
1:31:52a lot better than working in the fields.
1:31:53Right. So, uh even though we say it's a
1:31:57slave system, it's still better than the
1:32:00system they had before, which was this
1:32:01feudal system. Okay. Um that's number
1:32:05two. Number three is
1:32:08um even though US debt, US treasuries is
1:32:11not really worth that much, it's still
1:32:13the main basis of the global economy. So
1:32:15China, China can take this US the US
1:32:18treasuries and then use as collateral to
1:32:20go um and buy other things like soy
1:32:24beans, soy beans from Brazil. Okay. So
1:32:27the current system for many years
1:32:31benefited both the Chinese elite and the
1:32:34American elite. Okay? And I mean the
1:32:36people suffered, right? The the US uh
1:32:40people lost a lot of manufacturing jobs
1:32:41to China. The Chinese people are working
1:32:44for slave wages, but they don't matter.
1:32:46All right? So So why is the system
1:32:48breaking down? The system is breaking
1:32:51down because United States has proven
1:32:54that it can it can choose to weaponize
1:32:57its financial system in order to
1:32:59maintain its hijgemony. The classic
1:33:01example of course is Russia where Russia
1:33:03has about $300 billion of its assets
1:33:06frozen by Western financial institutions
1:33:08mainly Europe. Okay, so about Europe
1:33:09throws about $200 billion in Russian
1:33:12assets and that and starting then
1:33:14China's like uhoh
1:33:16um what do we do now? So what what they
1:33:20started to do was basically
1:33:24um
1:33:26um use US treasuries
1:33:29sell sell US treasuries to buy more
1:33:31gold. And we have to remember something.
1:33:33This is really important. Okay? It's not
1:33:35one government that controls all these
1:33:38US treasuries. A lot of these are
1:33:40Chinese corporations who are trying to
1:33:43um better hedge hedge risk. Okay. So the
1:33:49idea is okay right now there are three
1:33:54major buyers of US treasuries. Japan,
1:33:57the GCC and China. Some of you were
1:34:00saying it's the UK. No guys the UK if
1:34:03you live the UK you know the UK is not
1:34:05buying US treasuries because the UK has
1:34:06no money. It is the GCC buying US
1:34:09treasuries with citizen as the
1:34:13middleman. Okay. That's why UK appears
1:34:15number two when it's really the GCC.
1:34:16Okay. Okay, number one is Japan, number
1:34:18two is GCC, number three is China.
1:34:22You're absolutely right in that right
1:34:24now if these three countries stop buying
1:34:27US treasuries, then the United States
1:34:30could not finance its debt. Right now
1:34:33it's at is at $40 trillion.
1:34:36if it's forced to raise u interest rates
1:34:39to five 6%. It's it it it it has to pay
1:34:43$2 trillion a year in uh interest
1:34:46payments alone. Okay. So this will
1:34:48create huge problems for the US economy.
1:34:51And so therefore what uh the United
1:34:54States wants is for Japan, the GCC and
1:34:58China to continue to buy US treasuries.
1:35:01The GC and Japan aren't a problem
1:35:03because they're essentially US vessels.
1:35:04And so the United States can force them
1:35:06to buy US weapons. So the United States
1:35:08wants the GC to go to go to war against
1:35:10the Houthis and the Iranians. Um the
1:35:13United States wants Japan to go to war
1:35:15against China. Okay. China is a much
1:35:18bigger problem because China is
1:35:19independent. It's sovereign. It doesn't
1:35:22need to buy um US treasuries. And um you
1:35:28can actually make China buy US
1:35:30treasuries. So they're trying to think
1:35:31think of a workaround and the workaround
1:35:33um are something called stable coins. So
1:35:35I'm not sure how much you know about
1:35:37stable coin but stable coins are are
1:35:39essentally digital currency that is
1:35:40backed by US treasuries. Right? So if uh
1:35:45China agrees
1:35:47uh to allow stable coins into the
1:35:49country, this is a backdoor where
1:35:51Chinese citizens can privately buy US
1:35:55treasuries uh for stable coins. And
1:35:58that's the workaround that they want to
1:36:00do. But the problem is right now there's
1:36:04no one in charge of China. And like I I
1:36:06keep on going back to this point where
1:36:08no one can make this decision
1:36:11um because it's too controversial. Um
1:36:14and uh she doesn't want to make this
1:36:17make make this decision because he's
1:36:19still hoping that next year during party
1:36:22congress somehow he'll get a fourth
1:36:24term. But the only way you can do that
1:36:26is by not making a mistake. And I think
1:36:27like letting um US corporations into the
1:36:31country to sell stable coins. Uh
1:36:33different factions will pounce on that.
1:36:35So
1:36:37uh it seems like the entire world is in
1:36:39a stalemate right now. It seems like
1:36:41like things aren't progressing. Look,
1:36:44look, I made a prediction that there'll
1:36:46be a grand bargain between China and
1:36:48United States where basically China
1:36:51agrees to open up its financial markets
1:36:54and u United States get like tells China
1:36:58we won't deal with Taiwan. Okay, we
1:37:00won't support Taiwanese independence and
1:37:02basically creates a pathway for Taiwan
1:37:04and China to unify in the next 10 years.
1:37:07Um I I think like like as things unfold,
1:37:10it seems I'm I'm wrong about this
1:37:12prediction. It's possible, you know, in
1:37:14two, three months time things will
1:37:15change, but it seems right now that I'm
1:37:18on on track to be wrong. And if I'm
1:37:20wrong, I'm I'm always asking myself, why
1:37:23am I wrong? I think I'm wrong because
1:37:24like um no one's in charge of China
1:37:27right now. So no decision can can be
1:37:30made and and and and that's why you you
1:37:32have this slow death. Okay.
1:37:37>> Hi, Malay. Okay. All right. Uh
1:37:40>> yes, thank you so much. Thank you.
1:37:42>> Okay. Okay, Robert Lee, did did you have
1:37:44a question? [snorts]
1:37:45>> Yes. Um, professor, you are very smart.
1:37:48Okay, because advice know that
1:37:51the people who who would born who would
1:37:55adequate in the mode period they are
1:37:58they are not corrupted. But the people
1:38:01who were born in in the 1970s and 1980s
1:38:04are very corrupted. Why? Because for
1:38:07them money is God. Money and money is
1:38:10God. power is God they exchange each
1:38:12each other but you are right that she
1:38:15don't want to make she's why he can't
1:38:18win because he don't want to take a risk
1:38:21I don't think any bargaining will be
1:38:23happened between China USA okay as at
1:38:26any time I'm not see is that okay the
1:38:29coming mega earthquake in Tokyo will end
1:38:33everything will end the collapse of the
1:38:35semiconductor the collapse of the AI the
1:38:38collapse of the material world that is
1:38:39the big The people don't understand that
1:38:42the two cube will will have the mega
1:38:45earthquake will end everything the AI
1:38:48bubble some mechanic bubble material
1:38:50water so you professor read more about
1:38:55the document about the the mega
1:38:57earthquake in in Tokyo I think the this
1:39:01scene will be changed total totally but
1:39:04another thing professor I want to ask
1:39:07you if the end if the Indian and China
1:39:11is Gog and Moga and what will happen?
1:39:17Um, okay. So, on your point about the
1:39:19earthquake, look, um, I don't know if an
1:39:22earthquake will happen in Tokyo, but I
1:39:24think you're right in like we've we have
1:39:26been really lucky in that there have
1:39:27been no real major natural disasters
1:39:30so far. And if if if a natural disaster
1:39:33were to happen somewhere
1:39:35um then the world would be really badly
1:39:38affected because right now the world is
1:39:40not very resilient. In fact, the world
1:39:42is much more um unstable than ever ever
1:39:46before.
1:39:47Um I am of the opinion that India and
1:39:50China do not matter in geopolitics.
1:39:54Um I I don't think what happens in
1:39:56China, what happens in India actually
1:39:58impacts uh geopolitics.
1:40:01I think it matters more what happens to
1:40:03United States and or or in Russia or
1:40:06Europe. Um and the reason why is
1:40:10um if things happen in these nations
1:40:14they are much more likely to
1:40:17um [snorts] go to war overseas. I think
1:40:20if um there's a war civil war in China
1:40:24then China will just turtle up. If
1:40:26things break down in India then India
1:40:27will will just uh turtle up as well. And
1:40:31I think that because of these inter
1:40:33internal domestic structural
1:40:36contradictions both India and China are
1:40:38very weak countries. Okay. All right.
1:40:41Thank you. Uh Leandrew.
1:40:46>> Yes. Hello professor.
1:40:47>> Hi to be back. So my question I've been
1:40:51thinking about this week is why because
1:40:55I've also gone through like your
1:40:56civilization series and at the end you
1:40:58talked a bit I think about how China has
1:41:03kind of been industrialized by the US.
1:41:06So like why like why would China have
1:41:11agreed to [snorts] be basically
1:41:13industrialized by the US after the
1:41:16financial crisis? Like I've kind of I've
1:41:19been struggling with that idea like why
1:41:21would China just agree to that? Like is
1:41:23it was it really that powerless against
1:41:26the US at that point or how was it at
1:41:30that time?
1:41:31>> So look I mean at the end of the day uh
1:41:35it has to do with the way the Chinese
1:41:37society is structured. Okay, you have an
1:41:39elite
1:41:41um which controls 1 billion peasants.
1:41:44these 1 billion peasants is basically
1:41:45free labor. And if you're the elite,
1:41:48what you want to do is basically try to
1:41:50monetize this labor as cheaply as
1:41:53possible. United States comes on and
1:41:54says, "Listen, we'll give you the
1:41:56technology. We'll give them market
1:41:58access. Uh we'll even help you set up
1:42:01these factories and all you have to do
1:42:04is agree to make this trade in US
1:42:08dollars, right? For the elite, it's
1:42:10no-brainer."
1:42:12Okay? Does that make sense? I mean, like
1:42:15they're basically being offered free
1:42:16money because otherwise they would do
1:42:19they weren't doing much with with this
1:42:20um with this energy anyway, right? In
1:42:23the United States is like we'll come in
1:42:24and we'll buy it from you. Well, if
1:42:26you're elite, right, uh you're basically
1:42:28a parasite. Yeah. You you would take
1:42:30this deal.
1:42:32>> Okay. So because the elite they just
1:42:36didn't care about all their billion
1:42:38people and they thought well this is a
1:42:40good way to to to use them because we
1:42:43don't know what to do with them besides
1:42:45that.
1:42:46>> Exactly. Uh I mean like and this has
1:42:48been true in China for the past 5,000
1:42:50years. The peasants are considered
1:42:52property and they're considered real
1:42:54people. you came to China and like you
1:42:56actually met Chinese people, uh
1:43:00you would recognize that China is a very
1:43:04anti-human society. Um it's quite it's
1:43:07no different than like like India or
1:43:11other countries. Yeah.
1:43:13>> And so and so the elites have also
1:43:16basically gotten their like what they've
1:43:19gotten promised that also came true. So
1:43:21it's paid off for them.
1:43:23Look, if if you're the Chinese elite,
1:43:25okay, what do you want? You want to have
1:43:28your children go to elite US
1:43:30universities to become part of the
1:43:32American elite. You want to make a lot
1:43:34of money and then transfer this money to
1:43:35United States so they can buy
1:43:37residential property and retire. And
1:43:40it's worked out great for them. I mean,
1:43:43like, listen, I I lived in China most of
1:43:45my life. I I finally made some money
1:43:47thanks to you guys on Substack. And um I
1:43:51am now renting a room um in Ottawa in
1:43:56the woods. And every morning and every
1:43:59evening I go out for these long walks
1:44:02out in nature and I'm like, "Wow." First
1:44:06of all, the air is clean. Oh my god, I
1:44:09finally have clean air. Number two is
1:44:12it's quiet. It's quiet. There's no
1:44:14noise. There's no people going around.
1:44:19um making a lot of noise and um I I'm
1:44:24I'm just really really happy. Okay, if
1:44:26you're the Chinese lead, you you this is
1:44:28a life you want to live. You don't want
1:44:29to deal with Chinese people. You want to
1:44:32come to United States, buy buy some
1:44:33property out in the woods and just
1:44:35retire and and en enjoy your wealth. But
1:44:37for that to happen, you need to
1:44:40basically ensure the Chinese people are
1:44:42still working for you.
1:44:45>> Okay, got it. It's all about the the
1:44:47elite once again.
1:44:48>> Yep.
1:44:49>> Okay. Thank you very much.
1:44:50>> Okay. Uh Niko,
1:44:53>> hello professor. So my question to you
1:44:57is that you have been both to China as
1:45:00well as US. So which country's
1:45:02population you of the youth take
1:45:05interest in politics more? Who is more
1:45:08politically educated and aware? Which
1:45:11country? US or China? Well, I mean
1:45:13obviously United States because United
1:45:15States it's a democracy. I mean you can
1:45:17say it's a fake democracy but it's still
1:45:20democracy
1:45:22in which case you know you are allowed
1:45:23to discuss political opinions and you
1:45:25you are asked to engage in politics and
1:45:29so therefore you need to keep aware of
1:45:31the news. Um
1:45:34in China it's the opposite where if you
1:45:37engage in politics where if you try to
1:45:39read too much too many political news
1:45:40you can only get into trouble. Um so um
1:45:44there there's really no doubt about
1:45:46this.
1:45:48>> Okay. So let me put it in another way.
1:45:51Which country's population aspire to
1:45:54become politician in future? More
1:45:57aspiration for becoming a politician. So
1:46:00um Chinese aspire to become bureaucrats,
1:46:03not politicians. There's a difference.
1:46:05Being a bureaucrat just means that
1:46:07you're a pencil pusher and for them they
1:46:09consider that that to be a very safe and
1:46:11stable job. The Chinese like stability.
1:46:14Um whereas United States people here are
1:46:17very ambitious.
1:46:20>> All right. Thank you. That was it.
1:46:22>> Okay. Thank you. Okay. Lyel.
1:46:26Uh you're next. Lyel.
1:46:32Hello, Lyel.
1:46:35>> Okay. Hello.
1:46:37>> Oh, yeah. Sorry. Go ahead. Go ahead.
1:46:39>> Yeah. Sorry. Just figuring out how to
1:46:40get uh unmuted. Um nice to talk to you.
1:46:44Um I wanted to know what is the goal of
1:46:48G and Trump meeting three times this
1:46:50year if um it's hard to even get a deal
1:46:54or even attempt a deal if no one is in
1:46:56charge.
1:46:56>> Yeah, that's a great question. Exactly.
1:46:58Yeah. And this is something I didn't
1:46:59touch on. Okay. So, if you look at
1:47:02things from a nation state perspective,
1:47:05it's very hard for a deal to happen.
1:47:08Okay. So, then the question is like
1:47:09what's the point of uh C and Trump
1:47:13meeting like four times this year. Um,
1:47:18so a as we discussed earlier, C doesn't
1:47:21look that healthy, but he made a point
1:47:23of coming all the way to the United
1:47:26States to spend some time with uh with
1:47:30Trump. And so I would say the simple
1:47:32explanation is what C is trying to do is
1:47:35trying to stabilize USChina relations.
1:47:38Okay. So what what what what he's afraid
1:47:41of is the USChina trade war erupting
1:47:44again. Right now there's sort of it's a
1:47:45ceasefire
1:47:47um uh between the two and
1:47:51China does not want this ceasefire
1:47:56to um end. Okay. So that's something
1:47:59that all factions can agree on. Okay.
1:48:00all political factions within China can
1:48:02agree we need this guy presidency to go
1:48:06to go to United States and based on his
1:48:09personal rapport with Trump
1:48:12um make sure Trump doesn't go wacky
1:48:16again and declare war on us economically
1:48:19okay so that's something that they can
1:48:20all agree on and that's why I think um
1:48:23they wanted presidency to go to the
1:48:26United States that's from the nation
1:48:28state perspective but we also need to
1:48:30look at things from a personal
1:48:32perspective. And what is it that both
1:48:35people want? Okay, Donald Trump
1:48:38obviously wants a third term. I mean,
1:48:40like the guy is like 80 years old. Uh
1:48:44theoretically, this is his last term in
1:48:46office. Why is he working so hard? I
1:48:49mean, um and and you you be like, well,
1:48:53it's to have his legacy. I know it's but
1:48:57I mean like if if he really cared about
1:48:58his legacy would he have declared war on
1:49:00Iran? Would he have stolen like millions
1:49:03of dollars uh from these crypto barons?
1:49:06Um so I think Trump wants a third term
1:49:08but the same applies to C. He wants to
1:49:10continue to maintain power. So I think
1:49:12for these two people the purpose of
1:49:14meeting is how can we work together to
1:49:19extend our power right because for from
1:49:22Trump perspect from Trump's perspective
1:49:24he wants presidency to be in power um
1:49:28for another four or five years he wants
1:49:30Putin to be in power for another four or
1:49:32five years and so my argument is at the
1:49:36end of the year what we'll see is the
1:49:39rise of the triumphirate okay a secret
1:49:41alliance between among three people,
1:49:43Putin of Russia, CE of China, Trump of
1:49:46the United States where the three agree
1:49:49to help each other maintain power. Very
1:49:51similar to what happened in Rome uh in
1:49:54the first triumpvirant and the second
1:49:55triant, right? The first triant of
1:49:57course was Pompei, Cassis and Caesar and
1:50:01they agreed to secretly help each other
1:50:03uh win political positions. I think the
1:50:05same thing will will transpire. Okay,
1:50:07that's why President C went to meet with
1:50:10Trump. Okay, if you are going to create
1:50:13this alliance, you need to create trust
1:50:15and rapport um among these different
1:50:18players and and and that's why I think
1:50:19he ultimately went. Okay. All right. Um
1:50:23>> thank you.
1:50:24>> Okay, JL.
1:50:26>> Uh good afternoon. Thank you so much for
1:50:29your wisdom. Uh I just want to ask about
1:50:32um I'm not sure if you heard 15minute or
1:50:35urban planning both in China and around
1:50:38>> Shanghai cities. Yes. Yes.
1:50:40>> Yes. I just want to I mean the basis of
1:50:43it from my [snorts] understanding from
1:50:45my readings as a child I've read about
1:50:47Jacqu Fresco. I'm not sure if you're
1:50:49familiar with his work and Venus Project
1:50:52is a resource-based economy as an
1:50:54alternative to a monetary system. uh but
1:50:57increasingly I'm noticing that it's
1:50:59turning into actually AI civilian cities
1:51:02pretty much. So I just want to know your
1:51:04opinion on that and how um actually this
1:51:07technology u can be used for betterment
1:51:11of humanity if is in right hands not in
1:51:14hands of these secret societies and
1:51:17government. What do you think about
1:51:18that?
1:51:20>> Okay. Um so China has a lot of these
1:51:2350-minute cities. Okay. and um China has
1:51:28been very successful
1:51:30in um being very authoritarian. So the
1:51:34example is COVID lockdowns, right? These
1:51:36co co lockdowns were completely
1:51:37ineffectual in the western world because
1:51:40people live in houses and you can't
1:51:42actually monitor every single house. But
1:51:44in China, everyone lives in a
1:51:45residential building and it's very easy
1:51:47to lock down a res residential building.
1:51:50So, um, China's lockdowns were
1:51:53extremely, uh, effective. I know because
1:51:56I was locked down. It really, really
1:51:58sucks. Um, so I think that the idea that
1:52:06people will use AI for the common good
1:52:09is just ridiculous, right? And the logic
1:52:11is very, very, very, very simple. For AI
1:52:14to be effective, you need economies of
1:52:17scale. um you need to concentrate power
1:52:20and we what we know is like in an
1:52:23institution the more power you give it
1:52:26the less empathy it has the more um the
1:52:29more or the more um top down it becomes
1:52:33okay and the classic example is city
1:52:35planning okay I'm not sure if you've
1:52:38read about Jane Jacobs if you read Jane
1:52:40Jacobs her book um the fall and decline
1:52:43of the great American cities it's a
1:52:45wonderful book it shows how usually
1:52:47alone they will develop these organic
1:52:50diverse
1:52:52um communities with lots of cross
1:52:54purposes and I highly re recommend
1:52:56everyone read that book. Okay. So why is
1:52:59it like her ideas never like never
1:53:03became popular. Okay. Instead you have
1:53:05someone like Robert Moses who who was
1:53:08probably the most famous urban planner
1:53:09of the 20th century. Um why did he
1:53:12become so dominant? And and the answer
1:53:14is that's how power works. You put
1:53:17powerful people together and you give
1:53:18them a blueprint, they understand what a
1:53:20blueprint is and they understand how to
1:53:22implement the blueprint. But if you talk
1:53:24to them about human creativity and human
1:53:26diversity and human spirituality,
1:53:29they're like, "What the man? Get
1:53:31out of here." Okay. Um, people in power
1:53:34are psychopaths. People in power are not
1:53:36very imaginative. They see the world in
1:53:38a very top down way. So, the idea that
1:53:40we will use AI for the common good is
1:53:42just complete nonsense. If you if you
1:53:44have access to AI, it means you're a
1:53:46really powerful p person. And then if
1:53:48you're a very powerful person, you're
1:53:49going to see the world in a very
1:53:51limited, very simplistic uh very narrow
1:53:54manner. Okay.
1:53:57>> Thank you.
1:53:58>> All right, Tyler.
1:54:00Hi, Tyler. You're next.
1:54:07Hi, Tyler. Could you unmute yourself,
1:54:09please?
1:54:19Uh, hi Tyler. Are you here? Okay. Well,
1:54:22we'll come back to you. Okay, Tyler. Uh,
1:54:23Salivat.
1:54:26>> Hi, Salivat.
1:54:28>> Hey, professor.
1:54:29>> Hi.
1:54:29>> Uh, so we covered uh AI, we covered
1:54:33China, we covered the United States, and
1:54:35it's uh northern neighbor, right? Uh
1:54:38Canada. How about Russia? So we also a
1:54:40little bit covered the vessel states
1:54:42like Japan and others. What's the role
1:54:44of Russia because Russia uh in a war
1:54:48it's they're kind of losing not winning
1:54:50for for sure. Economy is declining right
1:54:52and then
1:54:53>> you ask your question related to to
1:54:55today's topic like like like I I don't
1:54:58want to like go off topic. Okay. We're
1:55:01talking about Russia later on but like
1:55:03today I I just want to focus on China
1:55:05and the United States.
1:55:06>> Yeah. It's it's it's a more relation of
1:55:08China and Russia,
1:55:11>> right? Okay. Yeah. So, um as you know,
1:55:16President C and President Putin have a
1:55:18very strong personal relationship and
1:55:22for the past 10 years, they've been
1:55:24trying very hard to strengthen the
1:55:27relationship between uh Moscow and
1:55:29Beijing. There are lots of flights
1:55:32between Moscow and Beijing. The problem
1:55:36is that if you're a middle- class
1:55:38Chinese, you would much prefer to be
1:55:41United States than in Russia. You know,
1:55:44like when you go United States, um
1:55:47United States is a very tolerant, very
1:55:48open society.
1:55:51And when Chinese go to Russia, they're
1:55:53al all these horror stories of being,
1:55:56you know, being shook down by the
1:55:58police. You know, you're driving a car
1:55:59and the police stop you and uh demand a
1:56:01bribe. You say, "No, I did nothing
1:56:03wrong." they put you in prison until
1:56:05someone comes and pays a bribe off. Um,
1:56:09and Russia is still a pretty racist
1:56:12society as compared to the United
1:56:15States. So even though at the top level
1:56:17there's a lot of cooperation between the
1:56:19United States uh between Russia and
1:56:21China at the peopleto people level which
1:56:24is what really matters um the
1:56:26interactions are much more limited than
1:56:29um between Chinese and United States.
1:56:32People don't appreciate that. Yeah. Even
1:56:35though there's a trade war going on,
1:56:36there's still a lot of interactions
1:56:37between China and the United States. So,
1:56:40300,000 Chinese students are not are
1:56:41still studying in the United States. and
1:56:44like more and more wanting of the United
1:56:46States. uh even though Trump h is not
1:56:48very nice to Chinese students and even
1:56:50though China has been trying to to warn
1:56:54um um to warn uh Chinese students
1:56:59against going United States like so um I
1:57:02think in the long term United States and
1:57:04and China will still be very strong
1:57:07friends and strong partners and I'm not
1:57:10really sure about Russia and China like
1:57:12the reality is like the United States
1:57:14and China they do not have any real
1:57:17geopolitical conflicts. Whereas if you
1:57:19look at Russia and China, there could
1:57:22there could potentially be a lot of
1:57:24geopolitical conflicts. Okay, one area
1:57:27conflict is of course Central Asia where
1:57:30you know China is trying to create its
1:57:33um belt and road initiative and Russia
1:57:35is trying to create its north south
1:57:36corridor. Uh Kazakhstan uh has always
1:57:40been a source of tension between these
1:57:42two countries.
1:57:44um the Russian Chinese border is still
1:57:48heavily defended. Okay. So there's lots
1:57:50of um the Russian far east that China
1:57:54considers it to be historically part of
1:57:56part of China. So um if I were a betting
1:57:59man I would just say it is much more
1:58:01likely for China to have a reproachment
1:58:04with United States and I think in the
1:58:07long term China will see Russia as a
1:58:09greater threat than the United States.
1:58:12Thank you.
1:58:13>> Okay. All right. Um,
1:58:17uh, Tyler. Okay. Sorry. Sorry.
1:58:20>> Hey, sorry about that.
1:58:21>> Yeah, no worries.
1:58:21>> Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. I just had to change
1:58:22a setting in my browser. Um, so I do
1:58:24have a couple of questions. I'll start
1:58:26with the one that I would look most like
1:58:28an answer to and then if you have time,
1:58:29I'd like to get to another one.
1:58:31Um so something that I found interesting
1:58:34about the summit between Trump and Gi is
1:58:36that Gi once again uh invoked the
1:58:40Thusidities trap. Yeah. Which you know
1:58:43basically for those who don't know it's
1:58:45basically just the concept that when
1:58:47there's a established power and a rising
1:58:50power [snorts] um war tends to break out
1:58:53between those two. Um so
1:58:57let me collect my thoughts here real
1:58:59quick.
1:59:00Um
1:59:01my my reading of that is that um you
1:59:05that that's a concept that's a bit too
1:59:10far-sighted to just be like a sound bite
1:59:12to present to media
1:59:14>> or to an American audience for politics
1:59:17sake. So I do wonder what you think is
1:59:19the significance of his repeated
1:59:21invocation of the Thusidities trap. Um,
1:59:25and you know, from from where I see it,
1:59:28I think that it has a lot to do with the
1:59:30Belt and Road initiative.
1:59:31>> Yeah.
1:59:32>> Uh, I think I think that that's the
1:59:33fundamental conflict between uh, China
1:59:36and the US because that's something that
1:59:39China obviously, you know, they they've
1:59:42spent a lot of resources in building the
1:59:44belt and road uh, corridor and from the
1:59:48US perspective, that's something that
1:59:49absolutely cannot happen. Uh so I think
1:59:52that there is [snorts]
1:59:54um you know a pretty big legitimate
1:59:57conflict over that. So [snorts] uh yeah
2:00:01we'll just leave it at that for now.
2:00:02>> Okay. All right. So um all right. So
2:00:04certain things to appreciate is
2:00:07>> the facilities trap is a book written by
2:00:09a his a Harvard historian called Graham
2:00:12Allison. Graham Allison is king's
2:00:16favorite historian. Graham Allison
2:00:18visits China a lot, maybe once a year
2:00:20and uh he's very close to the Chinese
2:00:23leadership and it's flattering for the
2:00:26Chinese to think that they could
2:00:28potentially replace United States one
2:00:30day. Okay. So, uh there are certain
2:00:33historians uh Graham Allison is one of
2:00:35them. Martin Jax is another person.
2:00:38Martin Jax wrote a book I think that's a
2:00:40book called like China's number one or
2:00:42China will become the like the global
2:00:44superpower. Okay. So if you're a
2:00:46historian, you're will you're willing to
2:00:47say like China has these imperial
2:00:49ambitions and like China is dominant
2:00:52power, then the Chinese love you. Um and
2:00:55again it's because in China politics is
2:00:58everything. Optics is just politics. And
2:01:01you know if a western historian is
2:01:02willing to say that you know China is
2:01:04rising and rising then you'll be whine
2:01:07and dime by the Chinese leadership. So,
2:01:09Cin Ping knows Graham Allison very well
2:01:12and so Cen Ping has a personal
2:01:16um affinity for the term the fidilities
2:01:19trap and that's why he mentions a lot
2:01:22you know it's it's it's paying homage to
2:01:24his friend Graham Ellison but when he
2:01:27mentions the term fusid trap okay what
2:01:30he's really saying is we and he says and
2:01:34like so he did this in May and he did
2:01:36this this time time around okay what
2:01:38he's really saying to is we need to
2:01:40avoid the fidity strap. The best way to
2:01:42do that is to transition from from a
2:01:44relationship based on strategic
2:01:46competition to one based on strategic
2:01:49stability. Okay, the status quo. Um so
2:01:52that's what he's really saying. He's not
2:01:54really saying that, you know, we the
2:01:56file trap is inedible and we China are
2:01:59on the rise. What he's really saying is
2:02:02we should both work hard to avoid the
2:02:04file strap. It's not something that that
2:02:06either either of us want. Okay. [snorts]
2:02:08Um, uh, rhetorically, what's really
2:02:11interesting is like
2:02:15both in May and in in in this recent
2:02:19summit, both leaders Trump and C are
2:02:23using very similar rhetoric. The
2:02:25speeches are almost identical to to the
2:02:28ones they gave back in May, where Trump
2:02:30is trying to invoke the historical
2:02:33friendship between the Chinese people
2:02:35and the American people. and she is
2:02:37trying to invoke the same friendship. Um
2:02:42so I I think that there's a lot of
2:02:45coordination
2:02:46uh between the both of them and I think
2:02:48that um um eventually both will come to
2:02:54a compromise of some some some sort. not
2:02:57necessarily a grand bargain, right,
2:02:58where they settle the Taiwan issue once
2:03:00and for all, but basically a compromise
2:03:02where they agree to get along.
2:03:07>> Great. Thank you for that. Um, and do
2:03:08you have time for one more question? I
2:03:10just have one more quick one
2:03:11>> if you ask a quick one. Okay.
2:03:13>> Yeah. So, so again, again referring to
2:03:16the recent uh the ongoing uh summit
2:03:19between Jay and Trump. Uh I'm not sure
2:03:21if it's still going on or not. Um but
2:03:23there was an interesting disagreement.
2:03:26um regarding AI. Uh so Trump made a
2:03:29statement that he also projected upon
2:03:32um China, you know, insisting that China
2:03:34also shares this view that uh AI should
2:03:37be left alone without new regulation. Um
2:03:40and then Xi
2:03:42>> uh completely contradicted that with his
2:03:44own statement saying that um the two
2:03:47powers have a responsibility to ensure
2:03:50that AI remains under human control and
2:03:52is managed and regulated for human
2:03:54welfare. So, I'm wondering if you make
2:03:56anything about that that split.
2:03:59>> Um, well, I think Trump is definitely
2:04:03being controlled by the tech argu. Okay.
2:04:05So, people like Elm Mas, Peter Theo,
2:04:07Senator Alman, uh, they do have Trump's
2:04:10ear and Trump is defending their their
2:04:12interests. Um, Siding Ping just has a
2:04:17very authoritarian perspective when it
2:04:19comes to AI where he sees AI as solving
2:04:22all of China's economic economic
2:04:24problems, but he also sees AI as first
2:04:27and foremost a political tool used to
2:04:29cement the power of the Communist Party.
2:04:32Okay. And and and that's why I don't
2:04:34really see eye to eye on that. But like
2:04:35it's not really an issue for the two.
2:04:39Okay.
2:04:40>> Okay. Helen, you're next.
2:04:43>> Hi, Professor Jang. It's an honor to
2:04:45meet you. Love your work. Um, I'm just
2:04:48curious about uh potential civil war in
2:04:53the US as well as I've heard from um,
2:04:58you know, following other thinkers as
2:05:00well that there's a potential for civil
2:05:02war in China as well. So, I mean, we're
2:05:06looking at a fight between these two
2:05:09powers and yet we're looking at the
2:05:11potential collapse of both powers. So,
2:05:14just wondering what you think about
2:05:16that.
2:05:17>> Yeah, I mean I I actually agree with
2:05:19this analysis where I think the real
2:05:21danger is not conflict between the
2:05:24United States and China. The real
2:05:25conflict is civil discord and civil war
2:05:29within these two countries. Um, first of
2:05:33all, I think these two countries are too
2:05:35far apart. Uh, they're separated by a
2:05:37huge ocean to actually engage in a war.
2:05:42Second, second law, I I I don't know
2:05:43what what they would fight over. If
2:05:44China wants to take Taiwan, United
2:05:46States is not going to go defend Taiwan.
2:05:47Like, why why the United States go do
2:05:49that? It's like, who cares? Um, so I
2:05:52don't really see the United States and
2:05:54China ever going to war against each
2:05:57other. the same time uh what what I do
2:06:00see is a lot of discontent within these
2:06:05countries. Uh the economies of both
2:06:08countries are not doing very well. You
2:06:10have an aging crisis um where basically
2:06:13this is an aging elite are able to
2:06:15control all the resources leaving
2:06:17nothing for young people. So the
2:06:19similarities between these two nations,
2:06:21it's so stark that I think it's very
2:06:24hard for both these nations to avoid
2:06:27civil war at some point.
2:06:31>> Thank you.
2:06:33>> Okay. All right. All right. Thanks,
2:06:35Alan. All right. Um Baron,
2:06:39>> uh yes. Okay. So, I've been thinking
2:06:42about the uh supply chain the total
2:06:45supply chain uh collapse issue a lot. Um
2:06:49and then I've been just uh thinking that
2:06:52so China is currently an export economy,
2:06:55right? So they take resources, they
2:06:56manufacture into something and export it
2:06:58to another nation and then they get
2:07:00money back. So um so if a supply chain
2:07:05uh collapse were to happen, uh China
2:07:08would only be able to trade regionally.
2:07:10So let's say with Russia, Japan and
2:07:12these Southeast Asian countries, but
2:07:15they don't really have good relations
2:07:18with any of those countries. So
2:07:21uh so in this and then the US is way is
2:07:25too far away uh for any decent amount of
2:07:29trading to happen because if the supply
2:07:31chain collapsed there would be piracy
2:07:33everywhere. So a lot of that would get
2:07:35lost. So um so what uh so what could
2:07:39China do in this sit uh in a situation
2:07:42like that because or else their
2:07:44factories are going to close and then
2:07:46end up like the rust belts and US
2:07:48automobile companies.
2:07:50>> So I don't know how much you've thought
2:07:52about the breakdown of supply chains.
2:07:54Okay. But um I think if you actually war
2:07:57game it out um you would recognize
2:08:01there's no bottom to the chaos that
2:08:04would be unleashed. Okay. So you you
2:08:08would think like okay well worst case
2:08:10scenario you have these regional
2:08:11training blocks. That's not that's not
2:08:13what's going to happen. What's going to
2:08:15happen is civil war and conflict
2:08:18throughout the entire world. You have
2:08:19political revolutions and there's really
2:08:21no bottom to this. And I I think the
2:08:23best analogy you can use is the bronze
2:08:25age collapse. And because like once you
2:08:28set off this chain
2:08:31um I think like the second order third
2:08:33order effects is something that's very
2:08:35hard for us to imagine because
2:08:38globalization is not something that
2:08:41happens just at the um state-to-state
2:08:44level. It happens it's embedded
2:08:47throughout all of society. Okay. Um, so
2:08:51I I I mean I I if the once the global
2:08:55chain supply chain starts breaking down,
2:08:57then it's complete another utter chaos
2:08:59and something that we'll probably see in
2:09:01a year or two. Okay. So um so I mean
2:09:05like I don't be I don't mean like well
2:09:07okay once the global supply chain breaks
2:09:09down then um there will be a new world
2:09:12order. No, I think we complete chaos.
2:09:14Okay.
2:09:14>> Yeah.
2:09:16I've seen so far is like basically uh
2:09:19all progress during and after the
2:09:22industrial age that started in the UK is
2:09:25going to basically get wiped out because
2:09:29>> yeah that's right
2:09:32>> um okay uh and then uh I think that's it
2:09:35but I wanted to ask a question about how
2:09:38do small communities survive in
2:09:41>> Yeah yeah yeah so let's just focus on
2:09:42China okay
2:09:45Uh you're next.
2:09:49>> Hello sir, how are you? Uh so you I have
2:09:52a quick question. Um so you've mentioned
2:09:55in the past uh the concept of the u of
2:09:58the US a technate how essentially um how
2:10:03America has this concept of of
2:10:07withdrawing inwards at at the time of
2:10:10the collapse or something along the
2:10:13those lines. So my question is
2:10:17does China have a similar kind of
2:10:21philosophy and and that's ties into um a
2:10:26certain geopolitical incident if you
2:10:28recall when there was that small spat
2:10:31between um India and Pakistan how
2:10:35Pakistan's
2:10:37Chinese um military technology
2:10:40overpowered India's um westester western
2:10:44technology. So, you know, you know, so
2:10:47in my mind, why doesn't China kind of um
2:10:53um just use that technology to
2:10:56to to kind of have its own
2:10:59technate of Asia? Okay, so um that's a
2:11:04good question. So, in East Asia, it's
2:11:08not China that wants to create a
2:11:10technate, it's Japan. Okay. So,
2:11:11historically, Japan has something called
2:11:13a Japanese co- uh prosperity sphere
2:11:17where it controls all of East Asia.
2:11:19Okay. But China doesn't do that. Why?
2:11:22Because culturally,
2:11:24China and Japan are very different.
2:11:26Japan, it's a very cohesive
2:11:29society. Uh that is also very
2:11:33homogeneous. Okay. There's a lot of
2:11:35equality in Japan. So, they stick
2:11:37together because historically they've
2:11:39been very poor. China is a plantation
2:11:41economy. It's a slave system. Meaning
2:11:44like the elite sees its people as
2:11:47peasants to be exploited. So it's not
2:11:49interested in conquer territory. It's
2:11:51what what it's interested in is
2:11:53maintaining stability and harmony and
2:11:55balance in China itself. Okay. All
2:11:57right. Um we're running out of time. Uh
2:12:00c can you ask your question, please,
2:12:04Stephen?
2:12:08>> Yeah. Can you hear me?
2:12:09>> Yeah. Go ahead.
2:12:10>> Um, so you've talked before about
2:12:15transnational capital being basically
2:12:17infesting the world, uh, and their
2:12:20relationship to the occult. So I was
2:12:21just wondering what China's what's the
2:12:24relationship between China, the occult,
2:12:26and their relationship to the United
2:12:28States.
2:12:29>> Yeah, that's a great question. Um, so
2:12:31China doesn't have
2:12:33um Chinese capital. The reason why is
2:12:36it's controlled by families. Okay. So
2:12:38China is controlled by the re
2:12:40revolutionary families, the red nobility
2:12:42and they interact with transnational
2:12:44capital. Um and but at the same time
2:12:49they're trying to prevent transational
2:12:50capital from monopolizing China because
2:12:52if if that were the case then they would
2:12:55cease to have any power. Um and China
2:13:00the Chinese don't practice the occult.
2:13:03And I think that's one of the
2:13:04fundamental weaknesses of China. The
2:13:07Chinese are extremely pragmatic, very
2:13:11practical, very
2:13:13utilitarian. Um they don't really have
2:13:15conception of the occult. They used to,
2:13:17but over time what the emperor did was
2:13:21um degrade the influence of the occult
2:13:23because they because the emperor saw the
2:13:24occult as
2:13:26um basically
2:13:29um another power center that could
2:13:32challenge the emperor, right? Because
2:13:33the occult is run by priests and the
2:13:37emperor would not want a priesthood um
2:13:40like India or
2:13:43um in Israel. Okay. So the thing about
2:13:46the Jews is the power base isn't a
2:13:48rabbis. It's decentralized. There's no
2:13:51one emperor. Um same thing with the
2:13:54Indian people. The Chinese are very
2:13:56different. The Chinese are very top down
2:13:58authorit authoritarian system. And quite
2:14:00honestly that's why the Chinese are not
2:14:02very imaginative. Okay? I hate to say
2:14:03this guys go to university, go to
2:14:04Harvard, go to Yale. Smartest people are
2:14:06who? Jews, Indians, and Persians. Not
2:14:09the Chinese people. Uh, and and that's
2:14:11that's something that um and I think a
2:14:13lot of it is because uh the Chinese
2:14:15don't engage in the cult the way that
2:14:16the Jews and the Indians do. Okay,
2:14:18Plato, you're next.
2:14:23Plato. Okay. All right, Dan.
2:14:25>> No, no, no.
2:14:26>> Oh, sorry. Go, go, go ahead. Go ahead,
2:14:27Plato.
2:14:30>> No, no. I had my hand raised.
2:14:33I just leave someone else.
2:14:35>> Okay. Okay. Uh, Dad.
2:14:39Hi. Can you hear me? Yeah. I got here.
2:14:41>> Hi, thank you for your um lessons,
2:14:42Professor Jang. I was wondering um with
2:14:45um with the Chinese population because
2:14:48there's such a lack of spirituality. Uh
2:14:51is it possible that next decades that
2:14:53there's going to be a reawakening of the
2:14:55Chinese population because of how you
2:14:57know how empty the lives are as you said
2:14:58like how how much the young people are
2:15:00suffering? Uh and what do you think
2:15:01would it would take for for that to
2:15:03happen?
2:15:03>> Yeah. Yeah. No, that's a great question
2:15:05and I'm seeing the same thing where as
2:15:08times get bad
2:15:10um Chinese revert back to a
2:15:14superstitious messianic
2:15:17um uh personality. And we saw that um
2:15:21during the u 19th century when after the
2:15:25open war you had something called the uh
2:15:28Taiping
2:15:30um Tango rebellions. Okay. And it was
2:15:34started by this guy who thought he was
2:15:35the long-lost brother of of Jesus. So
2:15:38what's been happening in China is yes
2:15:40you do have e economic collapse but you
2:15:43another issue that's been arising in
2:15:45China is these natural disasters a lot
2:15:47of flooding and that's always a source
2:15:50of um um creating that all this mess
2:15:54messianic energy. Okay. Almost a sort of
2:15:56like anxiety and desperation. And it's
2:15:59very in in these situations of poverty,
2:16:02of suffering,
2:16:04of natural calamity, it's very easy for
2:16:07people to come out and say like I'm the
2:16:09Messiah.
2:16:11Follow me. Um and so so I I think over
2:16:14the next 5 10 years, you will see a lot
2:16:17of this behavior. And once it starts,
2:16:20it's almost impossible to stamp out uh
2:16:23because the elite sees these messianic
2:16:25tendencies as a tool as political tool
2:16:28they can use to further their own uh
2:16:31power. Okay. Um Sultan
2:16:36>> Mr. Mr. Hello, it's is it's I'm watching
2:16:39your videos for two years and it's
2:16:43quite surprising for me to watch you man
2:16:46become very popular in these two years.
2:16:49So I have a question with Trump and she
2:16:51meeting
2:16:53um are we just watching the political
2:16:56theater when um US just forcing China to
2:17:01do some action to pressure Iran or we're
2:17:05just watching the Beijing Yeah. I mean
2:17:08it it appears that Beijing uh playing
2:17:10classic judo defense buying time for
2:17:13themsel and from game uh theory
2:17:16perspective is uh US China grand bargain
2:17:21fundamentally is illusion or does
2:17:25Washington really have uh leverage left
2:17:28to force China into structural deal?
2:17:32Thank you.
2:17:33So I think one assumption that you make
2:17:35that is erroneous is you think the
2:17:38nation state is the basis of geopolitics
2:17:40and that's not true. Like the United
2:17:42States actually doesn't care if it wins
2:17:45or loses this war in Iran. Um United
2:17:48States doesn't care if China is helping
2:17:50Iran or not. What Trump wants is to
2:17:53further his own political interest. And
2:17:55there are different political factions
2:17:56in the United States. The AI oligarchs
2:17:58for example who want to further their
2:18:00own political interests. and uh focusing
2:18:04on geopolitics, focusing on uh the
2:18:07nation state rivalry sort of distracts
2:18:09us from the the grander game being
2:18:12played. Okay. So again, as I mentioned,
2:18:16um Trump is just interested in
2:18:20um a third term and that means
2:18:21destroying his political opponents and
2:18:23who who are who are his political
2:18:25opponents? The globalists, right? Um, so
2:18:28he wants to work with China and Russia
2:18:30in order to destroy the power of Europe
2:18:34and the British Empire. Okay, that's
2:18:36that's the game you want you want to
2:18:37watch. The um game between the
2:18:39nationalist and the globalist. This Iran
2:18:41thing, it's almost a distraction. Okay,
2:18:44Sam, uh you're next.
2:18:47>> Hi, professor. So, I'm speaking to you
2:18:49from Hifa and I'm looking at the Hifa
2:18:52port which is uh owned by Chinese. Okay.
2:18:56[snorts] Well, Hifi is beautiful. I've
2:18:58actually been to Hifa.
2:18:59>> Oh, it's a beautiful city. I love it.
2:19:02>> And yes, so Chinese also own other
2:19:07companies such as Nova. There is Huawei
2:19:10here. I used to work there. And
2:19:14the China US relation as you pointed
2:19:16out, they're basically friends.
2:19:19>> Yeah.
2:19:20>> So, and Israel is friends with both.
2:19:23>> Yeah.
2:19:24So after the global breakdown, how do
2:19:29you see like past Judea rising and the
2:19:33US, China, Israel relationship going on?
2:19:38>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean um so I think what's
2:19:42happening today is the nation state is a
2:19:44cover for these multinationals. Okay.
2:19:47It's really these multinationals that
2:19:48have all the power. So like the the port
2:19:50in in Hi, it's not owned by the Chinese.
2:19:52is owned by a Chinese corporation that
2:19:55is independent or of the Chinese
2:19:58government. Okay, it acts its own
2:19:59interest and these companies are going
2:20:02to go to places where they can in where
2:20:05they can have the best return on
2:20:07investment and that's often Israel. Um
2:20:10so so I think like Pax Judea will become
2:20:15dominant is as the world breaks down
2:20:18these nation states become less
2:20:19relevant. these corporations, these
2:20:21multinationals become even more uh
2:20:25salient. They become even more obvious
2:20:27and they're looking for places to
2:20:31uh invest, places where they can find
2:20:33safe harbor. So what happens? What
2:20:36happens is you have a lot of
2:20:37corporations, both Chinese and American
2:20:40and European moving their headquarters
2:20:42to Israel. Uh because in Israel they
2:20:46have lots of human capital. Um, Israelis
2:20:49are really hardworking, really smart,
2:20:51really well educated and um, I
2:20:54understand there are there's been lots
2:20:56of Israelis who are like, "No, where
2:20:58that's not true, dude. I understand it's
2:21:00not I'm talking about things in relative
2:21:02terms. If I'm a if I'm a US corporation,
2:21:05I'm like, okay, where can I go in order
2:21:08to find talent that's that's cheap and
2:21:11effective?" Not the United States, not
2:21:13China. Well, I mean, it's Israel. Um and
2:21:17and Israel is still in a very strategic
2:21:20location in the uh Middle East. And one
2:21:25um one one example that I like I like to
2:21:29think about is the military. Okay. So
2:21:32yes, you can complain all you want about
2:21:34the IDF. Yeah. And like they're and like
2:21:37you know they're getting their asses
2:21:38kicked in Lebanon, whatever. Okay. But
2:21:40like you compare the IDF to like Sencom,
2:21:42which is just completely incompetent.
2:21:45Okay. And what we're seeing is SNCOM
2:21:47transferring a lot of its assets and
2:21:48resources to Israel uh because of its
2:21:51incompetence. Um right now Sangom is
2:21:54losing all its bases in the Middle East
2:21:55and therefore it's shifting all its
2:21:58assets over to Israel for protection. So
2:22:01I mean you know things aren't absolute.
2:22:04Yes, in absolute terms Israel has a lot
2:22:05of issues but I'm saying you compare
2:22:07Israel to other places and it seems
2:22:09right now that uh Israel will probably
2:22:11emerge as a dominant power in the Middle
2:22:14East. uh after this war in Iran is done
2:22:16with. Okay.
2:22:18>> All right. Uh Julius,
2:22:21>> Julius, you're next.
2:22:23>> Yes. Hello. Um just quick question. Um
2:22:26so I mean you probably talked about it,
2:22:29but still could you just briefly explain
2:22:32um so many media portray China as the US
2:22:37main rival. So I mean who who benefits
2:22:40from the narrative and and why? Yeah,
2:22:43that's that's a great question. Um, it's
2:22:46really the Americans who benefit from
2:22:48the narrative that China is um the main
2:22:51rival. Okay. Uh, specifically US tech
2:22:56companies, right? Because you're like s
2:22:59Alman or you're an AI company and
2:23:02everyone's asking you like why are we
2:23:05investing so much in data centers when
2:23:08um we're not actually deriving much
2:23:10value from your AI services. Okay. If I
2:23:12had a choice whether to have water
2:23:14electricity for free or chachi pity for
2:23:17free, I'm always going to pick water
2:23:18electricity. Okay? Because I need water
2:23:20electricity to survive and to live a
2:23:22good life. Whereas I don't actually need
2:23:23Chachi PT. And so the only response
2:23:26these companies have is well, if we
2:23:28don't do it, then China will do it. Do
2:23:29you want China to get AGI first? Because
2:23:32China will get AGI first if we don't
2:23:34actually invest in um data centers.
2:23:37Meanwhile, I think the United States has
2:23:3910 times as as many data centers as uh
2:23:42as uh China. So, it's it's it's absurd.
2:23:46But, you know, the media, the function
2:23:48of the media is to cause fairing anxiety
2:23:52in the United States. So, like, you
2:23:54know, fair because fair anxiety causes
2:23:56uh obedience. And so, they're always
2:23:59coming up with like these um uh
2:24:01narratives to scare people. And right
2:24:05now, honestly, they're focusing a lot on
2:24:07the China narrative, but like honestly,
2:24:09no one's scared of China because I mean,
2:24:13okay, back in the cold war, yeah, Russia
2:24:16was scary. Uh because, you know, Russ
2:24:20Russians are not afraid to die and uh
2:24:24Russia will kick your ass will kick your
2:24:26ass in a fight. China, Chinese people,
2:24:29no no. I mean you you there are you
2:24:33you've gone to school of Chinese kids.
2:24:34Okay. You you know what they're like.
2:24:36They are not a threat. Okay.
2:24:38>> Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
2:24:40>> Thank you. Uh Rang.
2:24:44>> Hi Jan. Can you hear me?
2:24:45>> Yeah. Go ahead.
2:24:46>> I have a I have a question that's only
2:24:48tangentially related to uh the US China
2:24:51relations. I'm wondering do we have
2:24:53enough time to to get into it?
2:24:55>> No. No we don't. I I I want to focus on
2:24:57China right now. Uh
2:24:59>> all right. Understood.
2:25:00>> Yeah. Thank you. Okay. Uh Tyler.
2:25:07>> Hey, professor. Can you hear me?
2:25:08>> Yep. Go ahead.
2:25:09>> Yep.
2:25:09>> Hi. Thank you. Uh long time listener,
2:25:12big fan. Um quick question just
2:25:14basically I know you believe that AGI is
2:25:17not something that will come about
2:25:20within the next couple of years. But if
2:25:21you're wrong in that regard, how do you
2:25:23think that will affect the USChina
2:25:25relationship moving forward once that is
2:25:28created?
2:25:29>> Yeah. Yeah, that's a great question. Um,
2:25:31okay. So, let's game theory this out.
2:25:33Okay, let's just say for example,
2:25:35they're able to achieve AGI.
2:25:38Um, well, whichever nation um is able to
2:25:43achieve AGI first will obviously
2:25:48dominate. Okay, but but here's my
2:25:50question. Yeah, I'm just using game
2:25:52theory. [snorts]
2:25:54Why would other nations be hostile
2:25:56towards this AGI? Right? Because like
2:26:00United States achieves AGI and China's
2:26:02like okay does that mean like we shut we
2:26:04shut our borders and not allow our
2:26:06people to access this AGI or do we allow
2:26:09our people to access this AGI because we
2:26:11know that it will bring much more e
2:26:12economic benefits to us right
2:26:16um if if I am a politician in China do I
2:26:19care who actually controls this AGI all
2:26:21I care about is staying in power more um
2:26:24and and so the example I use is well
2:26:27there there is an analogy which is um
2:26:31the US dollar right so so so the United
2:26:34States controls the world's currency and
2:26:37that's an absurd power it's it's almost
2:26:39as powerful even more powerful than the
2:26:41idea of AGI right and China could have
2:26:43been like screw this we're not we're not
2:26:45going to um uh trade with the US dollar
2:26:49because that would destroy our national
2:26:51sovereignty which would be a legitimate
2:26:53argument but what happened China did
2:26:55trade in the US dollar okay and China
2:26:57became very wealthy because of its trade
2:26:59with the US dollar. Um its people became
2:27:02much more productive. Um they were able
2:27:04to build better infrastructure that
2:27:05people were able to travel around the
2:27:06world and learn learn more knowledge.
2:27:08Okay. So my question then is if the
2:27:10United States were the first to achieve
2:27:12AGI, why would China actually be hostile
2:27:16towards this AGI, right? Why would China
2:27:18be like no, we had to create our own
2:27:19AGI? They wouldn't care. They'd be like
2:27:21no. If AGI means like our economy
2:27:24becomes stronger, if AGI means that our
2:27:26political system becomes much stronger,
2:27:28then then we will adopt it. And I think
2:27:30this would be true for like every
2:27:32country. All right. Now, let's just say
2:27:33China were were
2:27:36to be the first to achieve AGI, right?
2:27:40Um this would be a problem for the
2:27:43United States because United States
2:27:44would would not surrender
2:27:46uh it sovereignty over to this Chinese
2:27:50um uh AGI. Um so
2:27:56um so I mean it it would benefit China
2:27:59to achieve this AGI and honestly this is
2:28:02why if you look at Chinese policym these
2:28:05past five years China has gone all in in
2:28:09to AGI but again I'm not really sure if
2:28:13China were to achieve AGI if that would
2:28:16be a good thing for China because United
2:28:18States still controls the US dollar and
2:28:21United States could in theory choose to
2:28:24embargo China, right? So, China has this
2:28:26AGI, but Japan, India, Southeast Asia,
2:28:31Australia have chosen to
2:28:34embargo China. Um, how would the AGI
2:28:38respond to that? Well, it couldn't
2:28:39respond to that, right? Because nuclear
2:28:41weapons. Then how about Russia? Would
2:28:44would Russia surrender its sovereignty
2:28:46to this Chinese AGI? Probably not. Okay.
2:28:48So, so it's a really upsett situation
2:28:50where if America were to achieve Agi
2:28:52first, then the world would basically
2:28:55follow the American lead, especially
2:28:57China. But if China were to achieve AGI
2:28:59first, then uh the United States would
2:29:01basically declare war declare war on
2:29:03China. All right.
2:29:07>> Very interesting stuff. Thank you for
2:29:08answering.
2:29:09>> Okay. All right. Uh FH.
2:29:14>> Um hello. So
2:29:17um the regarding the analysis about she
2:29:21looking a little frail um a little
2:29:24unhealthy
2:29:26you know ever since he he came to power
2:29:28in 2012 there've been you know it's like
2:29:31a seasonal thing where if he disappears
2:29:33for a week or two and people um start
2:29:36talking about oh is you know did
2:29:37something happen and he always reappears
2:29:39it's you there's been so many false
2:29:42alarms and you know I just uh personally
2:29:46just um [snorts] have an attitude of uh
2:29:50whenever something happens to him like
2:29:52uh it's going to happen but you can't
2:29:55you can't read the tea leaves or
2:29:57anticipate it because it's you know he's
2:29:59he always comes back every time so far.
2:30:01So um what makes you know the these
2:30:06recent uh signals he's giving or people
2:30:10observations that people are making like
2:30:12is there anything different about them
2:30:14or is this just another false alarm so
2:30:16to speak and also um regarding something
2:30:19you said in um your Substack about
2:30:22Chinese whispers you said that there's a
2:30:25rumor about
2:30:27um you know potentially being freed uh
2:30:29from prison
2:30:31um and you know somehow staging some
2:30:36political action uh possibly you know
2:30:39himself is already 77 years old you know
2:30:43is that really does that how how would
2:30:45that rumor have any wings when um
2:30:48somebody's been been in prison himself
2:30:50since 2012 is already 77 years old I
2:30:53mean how how how would something like
2:30:55that possibly work
2:30:58>> yeah Um yeah, no no you make a great
2:31:02point which is yeah throughout the years
2:31:04there's been always been rumors about
2:31:07she's health and the most um serious
2:31:10rumor is he actually suff suffered a
2:31:12stroke uh a couple years ago and this
2:31:15explains the paralysis in the Chinese
2:31:18system. So um I did say throughout this
2:31:21presentation that through a series of
2:31:25events he was able to consolidate power
2:31:28and install his friends, his cronies,
2:31:32his associates into very important
2:31:34position of power, especially in the
2:31:36military. But over time they've been
2:31:38purged. So the question then is like how
2:31:41like like how did he lose so much power?
2:31:43And the answer is uh apparently the
2:31:46rumor is again this this is all rumors.
2:31:48We have absolutely no idea. During a
2:31:50very important meeting, he had a stroke
2:31:52and he was hospitalized for a few days
2:31:54and while he's away that um allowed uh
2:31:59different political factions to get
2:32:00together and go after all his associates
2:32:04and that's why we have this paralysis
2:32:06right now in the Chinese system. Again,
2:32:08this is only a rumor. I have absolutely
2:32:10no idea um if this is true. If it if it
2:32:13were true, it would actually help help
2:32:15us explain a lot. My main question, my
2:32:19main problem with uh what's going on in
2:32:23China right now is a sense of deep
2:32:25paralysis where it doesn't like I'm
2:32:28again I live and work in China. It
2:32:29doesn't feel as though someone is in
2:32:33control. Now, um all the reporting about
2:32:36C is that he's a very authoritarian
2:32:38person. He's a very strong willed. He's
2:32:40very doineering. But in China, it
2:32:44doesn't again it doesn't feel as though
2:32:46the country is moving in towards a
2:32:49certain direction. Okay. So let's just
2:32:52game the insistence. Okay. Well, if
2:32:54someone were in charge, what would be
2:32:56happening? Okay. Well, first of all, I
2:32:58think what would be happening is
2:32:59basically
2:33:01uh the beginnings of preparation for war
2:33:04against Taiwan to reclaim Taiwan, right?
2:33:06And you would see that in the Chinese
2:33:08media. Um you would see that in schools.
2:33:12you you would just basically see a rally
2:33:14around the flag. Okay, that's number
2:33:16one. Number two is you will you would
2:33:19see the emergence of some national
2:33:23champions
2:33:24um maybe um um that are heavily
2:33:28supported by by the state. And yeah, you
2:33:32do have some some some of these AI
2:33:33companies, but it seems very much like
2:33:37um a lot of these companies are,
2:33:40you know, they're they're not as
2:33:42energetic as you would think they are.
2:33:44Number three is you would see a much
2:33:47more strong Chinese voice on the
2:33:52geopolitical stage. Okay, so remember
2:33:53back um 10 years ago, there was this
2:33:56huge trend of this wolf warrior
2:33:58diplomacy, right? where you have like
2:34:00these very outspoken Chinese diplomats
2:34:03speaking the Chinese narrative in
2:34:05different places. They were very
2:34:06aggressive, but it was clear they're
2:34:08being supported by by a very strong
2:34:11central authority. And nowadays, you
2:34:13don't have these people. You don't have
2:34:16any real spokesperson for the Chinese
2:34:20interest on the geopolitical stage. It's
2:34:23very weird how you have this one
2:34:24Ukraine, you have this war in Iran, and
2:34:27there's no real spokesperson who
2:34:30representing the Chinese interest. You
2:34:31have like someone like Professor Morandi
2:34:33representing the um Iranian interest,
2:34:36but you don't have a designated figure
2:34:38going on like Piers Morgan or CNN or BBC
2:34:41just speaking out the Chinese interest.
2:34:43That to me is really weird and that
2:34:45suggests like they don't really have a
2:34:47narrative they want to present. Um, so,
2:34:50so all of this is really weird to me and
2:34:52my my only explanation is the country is
2:34:54in paralysis. Why is the country in
2:34:55paralysis? There's no leader in charge.
2:34:58Um, but again, I mean like like like I
2:35:00could be wrong. Um, but I do see some
2:35:04stark contrast between C's first five
2:35:07years in office and like these past two
2:35:10years. um especially in terms like wolf
2:35:13warrior diplomacy especially in terms of
2:35:16um you know presenting an international
2:35:18agenda like you know like like remember
2:35:21in his first uh five-year term he
2:35:23emphasized the Chinese dream a lot right
2:35:26the idea of an emergent China on the
2:35:28world stage now he doesn't even talk
2:35:31about the Chinese dream anymore that
2:35:32that that is his singular and you know
2:35:35um idea and he doesn't really talk about
2:35:38it in fact he doesn't talk about any
2:35:39ideas and that's weird Because
2:35:41traditionally these Chinese leaders,
2:35:42they do have a slogan or a theme that
2:35:46captures the essence of what they're
2:35:48trying to achieve. And I'm I don't know
2:35:50what he's trying to achieve. Okay. Maybe
2:35:52Taiwanese uh re reunification, but like
2:35:56that's not really discussed anymore in
2:35:58in China, which is really weird.
2:36:02>> Okay.
2:36:03>> Thank you. Um if do I have time for a
2:36:06quick follow?
2:36:06>> Sure. Sure. Sure. Sure. Go ahead.
2:36:08>> Yeah. So, um I I also remember that last
2:36:12year um at the um the commemoration for
2:36:17uh World War II, Putin and she were
2:36:20caught talking on the hot mic about you
2:36:22know possibly um extending lifespan with
2:36:25with new technologies. Um, I mean, is is
2:36:28that just idle talk or is that a real
2:36:31possibility for people with that kind of
2:36:34power to, you know, live at functioning
2:36:38um healthy uh age um long term that that
2:36:42normal people don't have access to. And
2:36:44I know that um in a recent talk um in
2:36:47the US that you said, you know, there's
2:36:50no guarantee that that the leaders would
2:36:52die at any normal timeline.
2:36:55No, I mean um he looks like Putin who is
2:37:00again his 70s and he looks extremely
2:37:02alert. Um he looks pretty healthy. U
2:37:05Modi um is also someone who looks pretty
2:37:08alert, pretty healthy. So um I do think
2:37:12they have access to to the best
2:37:15technology and um you know like let's
2:37:18just assume that there is this factional
2:37:20struggle within China right now. Well,
2:37:24actually it it would be in the best
2:37:25interest of presidency to look sick and
2:37:28unwell in order to throw his opponents
2:37:31off, okay? Because remember the like
2:37:34like it's not hard for these guys to get
2:37:36together and overthrow him, okay? But
2:37:39like the problem is like what happens
2:37:40afterwards? They don't actually trust
2:37:42each other, okay? They're they're always
2:37:44like scrambling to figure out. They're
2:37:46opportunistic. They're they're
2:37:47speculative. They're trying to they're
2:37:48trying to like position themselves into
2:37:51uh power and and in China like the
2:37:55general rule is like whoever is the
2:37:56first to act is is the first to die.
2:37:59Okay. All right. Uh let's continue. Um
2:38:02sorry. Uh SM, you're next.
2:38:06SM.
2:38:10>> Hello, professor. Can you hear me?
2:38:11>> Yes. Yes, I can. Go ahead.
2:38:13>> Yes. Uh my question is with the coming
2:38:15Bronze Age like collapse and civil wars
2:38:18what would happen to countries which are
2:38:20which have nuclear weapons like China
2:38:22which I recently read was increasing its
2:38:25nuclear arsenal.
2:38:27>> Yeah that's that's a great question. Um
2:38:29basically what happens u if if there's a
2:38:32branch collapse then a lot of the
2:38:34struggle is is domestic and internal
2:38:36which just basically means you're not
2:38:38you just can't use these nuclear
2:38:39weapons. Um and over time what happens
2:38:42is the state's capacity to deploy these
2:38:45nuclear weapons becomes degraded right
2:38:48so you need a lot of upkeep and
2:38:51maintenance to maintain these nuclear
2:38:52weapons if you don't have the resources
2:38:54then they get ignored and then um
2:38:58they're just they're just like not used.
2:39:00Okay.
2:39:01>> All right. Uh but thank you for the
2:39:03question. Yeah. Uh Elena, you're you're
2:39:05next.
2:39:10Sorry, I just figured out how to unmute
2:39:11here. Can you hear me?
2:39:12>> Yes. Yes, I can. Yes, I can.
2:39:14>> Okay. Um, one thing that hasn't been
2:39:16mentioned, and I don't know if you saw
2:39:18this, but I find it really intriguing,
2:39:21the um, beatification of Archbishop
2:39:24Fulton Sheen
2:39:26happened yesterday, which is the same
2:39:29day Trump hosted she for the state
2:39:32dinner and everything at the White
2:39:33House. And what I find so ironic is
2:39:37Fulton Sheen was an incredibly popular
2:39:41American
2:39:43advocate against communism.
2:39:46Super super um famous story in the
2:39:481950s. It was actually the story of a
2:39:5110-year-old Chinese girl named Little
2:39:54Lee that um was martyed in in China
2:39:58during the Communist Revolution. um that
2:40:02inspired his big devotion to a daily
2:40:04holy hour. And um I don't know if you
2:40:07know that story, but anyway, I just find
2:40:09it so odd that this date of Fton Sheen's
2:40:13um beatification, which 50,000 people
2:40:16filled a football stadium for in um St.
2:40:19Louis and it had all this media
2:40:21coverage, it kind of really overshadowed
2:40:24she's visit. And um this date for Fton
2:40:29Sheen's beatification was picked 6
2:40:32months ago by the Vatican which is
2:40:34probably before China and the US made
2:40:37their their arrangement. So, do you
2:40:40think that that is just pure coincidence
2:40:43or do you think that it was maybe um
2:40:48kind of an insult to she especially
2:40:50since Trump was complaining that the
2:40:52media didn't cover his event cuz I guess
2:40:54there's all the White House media ban
2:40:57all that drama going on. But meanwhile,
2:40:59all these grassroots news agencies were
2:41:02covering this feel-good, happy
2:41:05grassroots, you know, we love America,
2:41:08we are so not communist. So, I just
2:41:11wanted to know if if you saw the the
2:41:14alignment of those two events
2:41:17and how, you know, Fulton Sheen, he he
2:41:20was inspired by a martyrdom of a
2:41:2310-year-old Chinese girl. Um, so I just
2:41:26I just want to know your thoughts on um
2:41:29on perhaps the religious
2:41:33>> uh vein in all of this.
2:41:36>> Yeah. Um so thank you for drawing for
2:41:39for bringing this up. I actually have
2:41:41absolutely no idea about um about who
2:41:44who he is um and his relationship to to
2:41:48China. Um so I I think it's a
2:41:52coincidence. I I I it's very hard for me
2:41:54to imagine they actually planned this
2:41:56out and they picked a date when um
2:41:59President C would be in uh the United
2:42:02States because remember something really
2:42:03important is they only confirm that
2:42:05President C would visit United States
2:42:09two days prior to his actual visit. Um
2:42:12and there was actually a health scare um
2:42:15where he was in India and he had to he
2:42:17had he skipped the the state dinner and
2:42:20he had he had to go back to China. So um
2:42:24I don't know how much u planning goes
2:42:28into these things. What I will say
2:42:30though is the I think people are just
2:42:34underwhelmed by this visit where maybe
2:42:39um
2:42:40I had some expectations that there would
2:42:42be some some surprises
2:42:44um and it's been very underwhelming. It
2:42:47it almost seems like a rehash of the May
2:42:50visit of the May visit, but but not as
2:42:53interesting. Um I I think there's just
2:42:56not that much media coverage of um of of
2:43:01the visit, and there's been very little
2:43:03commentary. I I I don't think I don't
2:43:04think people are that interested in the
2:43:07uh in the in the China visit. So So
2:43:10that's what I find really interesting,
2:43:11how there just doesn't seem that much
2:43:14interest out there.
2:43:16Okay. Well, um, thank you for your
2:43:18thoughts and if you don't know who
2:43:20Fulton Sheen is, uh, look him up on
2:43:22YouTube sometime. He, uh, was a very
2:43:24entertaining TV star back in his day.
2:43:26>> Okay. Okay. Thanks. Okay. Um, uh, Sam,
2:43:31you're next.
2:43:34>> Yeah. Hey, professor again. So, um, you
2:43:37talked about the US dollar crashing
2:43:41and coming to an end, but before it's
2:43:44going to come to an end, you said after
2:43:47the Chinese visit,
2:43:49it's going to probably return uh back to
2:43:53normal levels somehow. We've already
2:43:56seen it like reviving but do you see it
2:44:00uh
2:44:01this is like happening for the one next
2:44:04one two years or like is it like for the
2:44:06couple of months until the war returns?
2:44:10How do you see the dollar hanging
2:44:13around?
2:44:14>> Yeah, I I think it's very hard to
2:44:16replace the US dollar. Um I think in the
2:44:20worst case scenario there'll be other um
2:44:23currencies that challenge the dominance
2:44:26of the US dollar but like um and it's
2:44:29possible you will have these different
2:44:31uh trading blocks emerge but um honestly
2:44:36and this is not financial advice
2:44:37honestly if if I had um wealth I would
2:44:41just keep it in in US treasuries the
2:44:43most the most the most liquid. And I'm
2:44:45not saying this because I think US
2:44:48treasuries um are the best investment.
2:44:50There are probably some some um other uh
2:44:54more uh there's probably some other
2:44:57investments that give better or return
2:44:59on investment. I'm just saying like the
2:45:01US treasuries are just the most
2:45:02convenient, right? You can do the most
2:45:05with with with US treasuries. And I
2:45:07think that in just a time of
2:45:08uncertainty, then I think that you want
2:45:11the most flexibility. Okay. Uh Roberto,
2:45:13uh you're next.
2:45:18Roberto, is he here?
2:45:24Uh, Roberto, you you you have your hand
2:45:26raised?
2:45:28>> Hi. Um, hey, just big fan, professor.
2:45:32Can you hear me?
2:45:33>> Yes. Yes, I can. Yeah.
2:45:36>> Okay. Okay. So, at the moment, I'm
2:45:39living in the US as an immigrant. I've
2:45:42been here for four years.
2:45:45And my question is, how do you see the
2:45:49ice
2:45:50uh situation all around the US? You
2:45:53think it's safe for me? Uh I've seen
2:45:56locally ice it's around. So I'm always
2:46:01careful where I'm going. So I I try to
2:46:04stay at home most of the time I go to
2:46:06work, but I'm just afraid that they will
2:46:09close the borders and I end up trapped.
2:46:12I'm originally from Mexico and
2:46:16yeah, that's pretty much it.
2:46:19>> What do you think?
2:46:20>> Yeah, I mean, you know, it's hard for me
2:46:22to comment on this because I mean, I'm
2:46:26not American. Um, and um I'm not I like
2:46:33um yeah, it it's really hard for for for
2:46:37me to make a judgment. I I think ISIS's
2:46:39power will only grow, but I think it's
2:46:43possible ICE shifts its focus from
2:46:46dealing with illegal immigrants to
2:46:47dealing with um cities that don't
2:46:50cooperate. Um I think ICE is slowly
2:46:52becoming a police force, a personal
2:46:54police force for Donald Trump.
2:46:57>> Okay. But I mean it's very hard for for
2:47:00comment and and like I I I hope like we
2:47:02have 10 more minutes left, but I I want
2:47:03to keep focused on China. Okay. So,
2:47:07um, we've done one round. Okay. And I I
2:47:10see some hands up. Um,
2:47:16um,
2:47:18uh, you know what? I have a good
2:47:19question. Um, and let me respond to this
2:47:23question. Okay. So, if you have a
2:47:24question, you can also send me a private
2:47:25message. Do you think so this question
2:47:28is do you think C is supporting Trump to
2:47:30get his third term by mediating between
2:47:32Iran and US to make a good Nobel Peace
2:47:34Prize theater? Yeah. Um I think this is
2:47:38much too clever.
2:47:40Um I think Trump doesn't need she and
2:47:44Putin's help to get a third term. Okay.
2:47:47Uh but what I do think is
2:47:51that uh the three Trump, C and Putin,
2:47:54they do benefit from global chaos in
2:47:58order to
2:48:00um degrade the power of the globalists,
2:48:04especially the Europeans and the
2:48:05Canadians, uh the city of London
2:48:07basically. And I think that at some
2:48:09point um the three will get together and
2:48:12propose maybe a new world order where
2:48:16the where the three countries and
2:48:17possibly Iran get together and they
2:48:20agree on a new global uh order of
2:48:25stability and that will get Trump the um
2:48:27Nobel Peace Prize. So I think that's
2:48:30what what what might happen. All right.
2:48:33Um
2:48:35okay. So, we have 10 more minutes and
2:48:40let us do another round. Okay. But like
2:48:43please ask your question really quick.
2:48:44Okay. JL, did did you have a question? A
2:48:47really quick question.
2:48:52Uh JL.
2:48:55Okay.
2:48:56Uh Stephen Stefan.
2:49:00Okay. Sorry. All right. We have two two
2:49:02two. Okay. And and we'll end the
2:49:04session. Okay. Baron, did you have a
2:49:07>> Yes, I have a China related question.
2:49:09So, uh, lastly, just I wanted to ask
2:49:12about this while we stop. So, the, uh,
2:49:15currently the US AI companies, I assume
2:49:18they're trying to pressure Trump into
2:49:21releasing new AI regulations in order to
2:49:25prevent competition so they can
2:49:26monopolize it themselves. Y,
2:49:28>> but they're also in a situation where
2:49:31they're treating uh Chinese AI companies
2:49:34as like, oh, we're the they're the main
2:49:36threat. We have to make sure we out
2:49:38compete these guys. So, uh will they
2:49:42will the US eventually try to release
2:49:45regulations that prevent open-source AI
2:49:48models from being uh run by smaller
2:49:52companies or individuals and then just
2:49:55only allow like the big companies like
2:49:58Claude or Open AI or whatever.
2:50:00>> Yeah. Um yeah, that's a really good
2:50:02question. So I I don't know enough about
2:50:04the industry to uh comment um but but
2:50:09but I I will make two guesses. Okay,
2:50:11guess number one is they will definitely
2:50:13block Chinese opensource models from
2:50:16entering the United States. That's
2:50:18pretty obvious. Um and my prediction
2:50:22number two is they're actually much more
2:50:25interested in securing government
2:50:28funding for their projects. Okay. And so
2:50:31what that might mean is a
2:50:34nationalization of data of data centers
2:50:37um where the government ass like assumes
2:50:40the cost of running these data centers
2:50:43and then uh these air companies can can
2:50:45just run run run their their models.
2:50:48Okay.
2:50:49>> Uh but I I I don't know know enough
2:50:51about the industry but but but those are
2:50:53my two guesses.
2:50:54>> Okay.
2:50:55>> Right now big thing used to compare the
2:50:57different models is like benchmarks. So
2:50:59how would if Chinese AI open source AIS
2:51:02get cut off from the United States, how
2:51:04would people compare the performances
2:51:07between the two and say, "Oh, the
2:51:09Chinese is still right on US's tail."
2:51:13Uh, so we need to keep doing more
2:51:14funding.
2:51:15>> Yeah. I I don't think they care. I mean,
2:51:17like like I I I think you're right. I
2:51:19think all they're interested in is is
2:51:21creating a monopoly. Um, and that means
2:51:24controlling the levers of of of policym
2:51:26in Washington DC. Okay.
2:51:28um uh Robert and then Helen. Okay. And
2:51:32and and [clears throat]
2:51:34we'll we'll close the session.
2:51:36>> Professor, I just share from the the AI
2:51:39industry. Okay. All the investor in
2:51:42China AI
2:51:43like Hill House Capital like the the
2:51:47co-founder of the Alibaba group all the
2:51:49guy they graduated from same university
2:51:51like you like yours from GR from GR from
2:51:54Yo through the AI competition among USC
2:51:58and China is theater okay so the in fact
2:52:02the investor of the China AI robotics is
2:52:06the ch is USC fund venture capital okay
2:52:09They are agent they are transnational
2:52:11agents. Okay. They are graded from same
2:52:14university the Yale university. Okay.
2:52:16Also professor S master go I got a I
2:52:20find a reason why you why you are
2:52:23admitted by the year because they have
2:52:26the guy who name is he lose his fun of
2:52:29the of the time magazine fortune
2:52:31magazine. Every single US read and
2:52:35educated is funded BY THIS GUY. THIS guy
2:52:38is the founder of the of the USC
2:52:40century. This guy was born in the 70s.
2:52:44>> Sorry. Do you have a question? Like like
2:52:45like we're running out of time.
2:52:46>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean I mean I mean that so
2:52:49since the the the it's a theater. Okay.
2:52:53The competition between USA and China.
2:52:57What will happen?
2:53:00>> As you point out I I I think you're
2:53:02right. I think a lot of this is theater.
2:53:04I I think I think that um um what's
2:53:07going to happen is an AI AI takeover of
2:53:10government in both places. Okay. Uh
2:53:13Helen, your your question.
2:53:15>> I'm just wondering about the bricks uh
2:53:18goldback system that China launched out
2:53:20of Hong Kong. What's your take on that
2:53:22and the petro dollar?
2:53:25>> Yeah, that's a great question. Um so the
2:53:27difference between the petro dollar and
2:53:28the brick system is in the petro dollar
2:53:31you have a hegeimon. Okay. What a
2:53:33hedgeimon is a resolution sorry a
2:53:36dispute resolution mechanism okay like a
2:53:39godfather you don't have that in breaks
2:53:41uh and so what's what's been happening
2:53:43is no one can actually agree on on
2:53:45anything unless China's willing to
2:53:48employ or deploy military force to
2:53:51resolve conflicts then no one's going to
2:53:53take China seriously um I mean the idea
2:53:56like you know we all sit together and we
2:53:57all get along never works I mean like
2:54:01like if you actually have people coming
2:54:03together and sitting around and trying
2:54:05to come to a like a you know like like
2:54:07like a decision it will never ever work
2:54:10you always need someone in charge and
2:54:12unfortunately China is not willing to do
2:54:14this okay so for China to be in in
2:54:16charge it either needs to deploy its
2:54:18military which is it doesn't want to do
2:54:20and it also or it needs to be the global
2:54:23reserve currency but the global reserve
2:54:24currency just means like you have open
2:54:27capital markets right and China doesn't
2:54:29want to do that either so so it's it's a
2:54:31ridiculous situation where China doesn't
2:54:34want want to assume any of the risks and
2:54:36liabilities but it wants everyone to get
2:54:38along which never happens. Okay. Um so I
2:54:41have a question uh about this about the
2:54:44cabala. Again this is an interesting
2:54:45question. Question is do you think there
2:54:48are some Chinese elites who are trying
2:54:49to study the cabala? And the answer is
2:54:51they're not because it's too hard. Uh
2:54:54the cabala is u a very complex uh
2:54:58tradition. Uh, it's pretty simple if
2:55:00you're Jewish because you need to both
2:55:02access the Bible as well as the occult.
2:55:05And the Chinese, I mean, like the
2:55:07Chinese elite, my god, you know, they're
2:55:10they're not that bright. Um, and they're
2:55:12kind of lazy, too. Okay. Uh, FH, did did
2:55:17you have a question? FH.
2:55:19>> Um, yeah. So, you touched on this
2:55:21briefly um I think in your Los Angeles
2:55:25talk where where you were always
2:55:27confused about your American friends
2:55:29coming to China and and sort of you know
2:55:31being enamored with everything and then
2:55:33when you step into LA you you you felt
2:55:35like um you understood their perspective
2:55:38much more. suggest, you know, now that
2:55:41um you've had a little time away from
2:55:44the the states, I mean, can you speak on
2:55:47um how your perspective might have
2:55:49shifted whether um you look at China
2:55:52differently or whether you look at um
2:55:54the US differently um after um you know,
2:55:57not being there for several years.
2:55:59>> Yeah, that's a great question. Um, so
2:56:01you're absolutely right in that when I
2:56:03was in China for too long, I tend to
2:56:06maybe judge China too harshly and I tend
2:56:10to
2:56:11um perceive the US in a more positive
2:56:14light and uh um uh that's just human
2:56:19nature and you know it's a great
2:56:21question like you know so after spending
2:56:23a month in United States how do I feel
2:56:24about the US? How do I feel about China?
2:56:27Well, I I I mean like I I don't think
2:56:31the United States is heading in the
2:56:33right direction. I don't think China is
2:56:35heading in in the right direction. Um
2:56:38and my uh my my my desire is to explore
2:56:42more of the world so I can get a more
2:56:44global perspective. But I am not
2:56:46optimistic about either the United
2:56:48States or um or China. I think both
2:56:52countries have a lot of of issues. I
2:56:56think uh these issues will become much
2:56:58more clear um in a year or two. Uh I
2:57:02will also say that regardless of the
2:57:07issues in United States, United States
2:57:09is still a nicer place to live than than
2:57:11China. I mean um one main takeaway I've
2:57:15had uh these two months of traveling
2:57:18North America is I really don't want to
2:57:20go back to China, man. I really hate
2:57:23China. I I don't like people spitting on
2:57:26the streets everywhere. I don't like
2:57:28people bubbing each other, pushing each
2:57:30other around. I don't like people like
2:57:32just cursing each other out for like the
2:57:34most minor things. I I don't like the
2:57:37pollution in China. Um you know, I mean
2:57:40like like I'm spend I'm spending some
2:57:42time in the woods in Canada. I love the
2:57:44fact that my kids can just explore the
2:57:46woods by himself with his friends. I I I
2:57:49I think that's how kids should just grow
2:57:50up and you can't do that in China. So um
2:57:55I'm looking to get out of China as soon
2:57:56as possible. Um but I I do understand
2:58:00the limitations and problems in um North
2:58:03America as well. Okay. So Shadur, you
2:58:06have do do you want to ask your question
2:58:08and and then that'll be it. Okay. We're
2:58:10we're four o'clock. Yeah.
2:58:12>> Thanks, Professor. Professor, I have a a
2:58:15very transparent and open question. This
2:58:17is uh my my cousin and I have been
2:58:19listening to you for a while now and
2:58:21really the things you talk about are
2:58:22really enlightening. You go very deep on
2:58:24a lot of things that I think are not
2:58:27said. One one criticism of you that
2:58:30constantly come up with me and my
2:58:31cousins when we talk about these things
2:58:33is um you know a lot of I feel like a
2:58:37lot of podcasters and just people in
2:58:39general nowadays they they say things
2:58:42that kind of stir up a lot of anxiety in
2:58:44people. um you know obviously times are
2:58:46bad and it it causes people to you know
2:58:48worry about the future and one Christian
2:58:51that's come up of you a lot and it's
2:58:53it's that you know you have some sort of
2:58:55ulterior motive whether people are
2:58:57saying that you know because you're from
2:58:59China that might have something to do
2:59:00with it where you're trying to stir up
2:59:02something or whatever it is some
2:59:03ulterior motive and you know my cousin
2:59:05and me we're on the side of no like
2:59:07you're we truly believe you're doing it
2:59:09because you want to better the world you
2:59:12want to you know what I mean you you
2:59:13have a you have a mission that that you
2:59:15want to just expose truth basically. So
2:59:19I I guess kind of what what I I always
2:59:23we always kind of defend you but what
2:59:25would you say to that if if that came up
2:59:27to you that question?
2:59:29>> Yeah. No no it's a great question and
2:59:30something I struggle with every day.
2:59:32Okay. So my main response it's very
2:59:34simple is I try to make predictions. But
2:59:37the reason why I try to make make
2:59:38predictions is like I think that we as
2:59:40humans we have the capacity to control
2:59:43our own fate for our own analysis. So
2:59:46what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to
2:59:50teach people how to think for themselves
2:59:52and to validate my uh model is I make
2:59:56predictions. Okay. So how do you know if
2:59:58my analysis is correct? Well, if my
3:00:00prediction turn up to correct. So, um,
3:00:04you know, I blew up because of the Iran
3:00:06war. So, if you go back two years, okay,
3:00:09um, when I was making these predictions,
3:00:11everyone on online would call me crazy
3:00:13for saying that the United States would
3:00:15attack Iran because they'll be like, why
3:00:17would we do that? That's that that's
3:00:18insane. But it happened and, you know,
3:00:20that's why um, I blew up online. But
3:00:22just because I became popular online
3:00:24doesn't mean I'm I'm going sit back and
3:00:26just, you know, make money. What my my
3:00:28mission is to educate people. So now I'm
3:00:31making new predictions and I'm
3:00:32presenting um but but it's all based on
3:00:35my game theory uh model of of of the
3:00:39world. And that's what I'm trying to do.
3:00:40I'm trying to teach people. You don't
3:00:42have to like listen to what I say. Um if
3:00:45you listen to to what I say, what what I
3:00:47hope you you're doing is you're
3:00:49listening carefully as to how I'm making
3:00:51my analysis. But that's actually more
3:00:53more important than my predictions. And
3:00:55and what you also
3:00:57>> find uh is like I'm willing to admit
3:00:59when I'm wrong and then go back and
3:01:01analyze my model and figure out where
3:01:03where I went went wrong. Okay, so that
3:01:05that that's my memory response. Okay,
3:01:07guys. Uh it's been great, but it's way
3:01:09past it's it's past 4:00 and um I I need
3:01:13to look look after my my kid. Okay, so
3:01:15I'll see you guys next time. Thank
3:01:16Thanks for coming.
3:01:18>> Thank you so much.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Emergency Discussion #3: Xi Visits Trump by Predictive History, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 27,592 words across 4,075 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.