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ELEIÇÃO FRAUDADA? O QUE EXPLICA ESSE RESULTADO ABSURDO? — Transcript

by Canal Tragicômico · 14,010 words · 2,161 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:01Congress was right to require at least
0:03photo identification. Why? Because it
0:07prevents and reduces fraud. Because the
0:10next step would be for the electoral
0:11court to remove the voter registration
0:13number from the voter registry, since
0:15it's the registration number that
0:16allows the poll worker to vote for a
0:18voter who didn't show up or who died.
0:21>> What happens today? At 5 PM, the poll
0:23worker, in conjunction with the
0:25election monitors, checks which voters
0:27didn't show up because they didn't go,
0:29because they died, because they
0:31traveled. With the registration number,
0:33they unlock the electronic voting
0:34machine and vote as many times as they
0:36want. So this is a matter of the utmost
0:38seriousness.
0:40>> If the most excellent Rocambole from
0:42hell has already said in no uncertain
0:44terms that the voting machines are
0:46susceptible to fraud, and even
0:48suggested some changes to reduce the
0:51number of frauds, I think I can also
0:53say so, right? Yes, I believe that our
0:57voting machines are highly susceptible
0:58to fraud. In this video, he even gives
1:01an example of how this fraud can be
1:03carried out. And besides that, there
1:06are speculations that several other
1:09methods exist. I don't trust our
1:11electoral system. I'm not going to
1:13pretend I trust it. I'm also not going
1:17to say I have irrefutable proof here.
1:21This is my opinion channel, and I'm
1:23simply giving my opinion as a citizen.
1:26And I think a Brazilian citizen's
1:28opinion about their electoral system
1:30should be legitimate if we're at least
1:32going to continue pretending this is a
1:35democracy. No, I don't trust our
1:37electoral system. Most Brazilians don't
1:39fully trust their electoral system.
1:41There are polls that show this. We've
1:45been demanding, almost begging for
1:47modernization, for a long time. At this
1:51moment, only two countries in the world
1:53use a 100%electronic electoral system:
1:56Brazil and Butler. I find it hard to
2:00believe that only Brazil and Butler are
2:02right and the rest of the world doesn't
2:04know what it's doing. In fact, many
2:09countries have had systems similar to
2:11ours and ended up abandoning them. So,
2:15no, I don't trust our elections, not
2:18entirely. I'd been suspicious for a
2:22while, and I even said that the only
2:26way Lula could turn this around, in my
2:29opinion, would be with blatant
2:30corruption. So, man, I can't help but
2:36speak frankly. To me, it was a massive
2:39rip-off. It wasn't a total rip-off,
2:41it's not like that was, oh, I think not
2:42. I'm absolutely certain it was a
2:45disgraceful rip-off, because nothing in
2:47this election makes the slightest sense
2:49. It simply doesn't. I've gathered some
2:53numbers here to show you, because I can
2:55show you that statistically,
2:57mathematically, this is bordering on
2:59impossible. Of course, when you say
3:03it's impossible from a mathematical or
3:06statistical point of view, it's not a
3:08factual impossibility, it's not
3:11definitively impossible, it's
3:13improbable to a degree that borders on
3:16impossible. So, if I use the term
3:19impossible a few more times, it's
3:22clearly in this context of being so
3:24improbable that you would basically
3:27need to believe that Santa Claus might
3:29exist to think that something like this
3:32could have happened. But I'll also say
3:37upfront, and I think it's important to
3:39say this at the beginning before
3:42presenting the arguments, that I don't
3:44believe definitive proof of fraud will
3:46emerge, and that we'll be able to annul
3:49the elections because we proved they
3:51were rigged and then have a third round
3:54. I don't believe that because there's
3:59no favorable history in that regard.
4:04The American elections were evidently
4:06rigged back when Biden defeated Trump
4:08for the presidency. There were much
4:12stronger indications because they have
4:14ballots that leave traces. And even so,
4:19even with basically everyone knowing
4:21that the election was rigged, the
4:23mandate was fulfilled in the United
4:26States, and here in Brazil, from what
4:28we've seen, no matter how many
4:30anomalies and inconsistencies appear,
4:33we have a system that is unauditable.
4:35No, but it can be audited because there
4:37are ballot box reports, because no, it
4:38can't, it can't. Because there's a code
4:42that shows you can't see what you did
4:44at the ballot box. You see the number
4:48you typed appear on the screen, you
4:50press it, confirm, and you trust that
4:51the number was actually credited there,
4:53that it was computed there, but you
4:54don't know what's really happening
4:56inside. Besides, there are other ways
5:00to commit fraud, as Flávio Dino
5:01himself said at the beginning of the
5:03video, right? If our election were
5:06rigged, if it could be rigged, in truth
5:08, the dead would not be voting. Can we
5:13agree with that? I think Brazil doesn't
5:16have any philosopher's stone or some
5:19resurrection jutsu that is
5:21systematically used in elections to
5:23make the dead come back to life to vote
5:25, and then they die again. So, we
5:32already know, there are already stories
5:34of fraud in this current system that we
5:35use, the electronic system, from many
5:37elections, past elections, several
5:38politicians have already complained.
5:42Well, many of those who today say it's
5:43absurd to question the voting machines,
5:45that it's an attack against democracy,
5:47have criticized them in the past, have
5:48said that yes, we needed to change our
5:50system. But, ever since the PT (Workers
5:53'Party) was first elected in 2002, they
5:56have been working and orchestrating to
5:58block any kind of project aimed at
6:00making our electoral system more secure
6:02, which only increases distrust, right?
6:05Before the elections, I even brought a
6:08video of, wow, I've forgotten the
6:13comedian's name now, Oscar Filho. I
6:15brought a video of Oscar Filho where he
6:18talked precisely about this, that Lula
6:20called the Americans to supervise our
6:22electoral system. Look at the voting
6:24machines, look so you can confirm that
6:26they are not, uh, that they are secure,
6:27that it's impossible to rig them. And
6:30then the Americans said: "Okay, let's
6:31go take a look at the voting machines."
6:32And then he said: "Nobody's coming. He
6:34canceled the Americans' passports,
6:35didn't let anyone look at the ballot
6:37box," and Oscar Filho said: "Well, fake
6:39news is fake news, it doesn't disappear
6:40when you close the door, right? People
6:42look at that closed door and think: '
6:44They're hiding something there.'" So,
6:46it's obvious that everything done in
6:48Brazil regarding the urethrone only
6:50increases distrust. And that's why we
6:53have an electoral system that more than
6:55half the population doesn't fully trust
6:56. If I'm not mistaken, the most famous
6:59survey on this has several categories,
7:01right? I trust completely, I trust a
7:03little, I don't trust. Yes, I don't
7:06trust at all. For it to work, you have
7:09to trust completely. If you trust a
7:12little, then it's not enough, right?
7:15You have to fully trust your electoral
7:17system. And when you take this segment
7:20of people who don't trust at all or who
7:22trust only a little, you have more than
7:24half the population that doesn't fully
7:26trust their electoral system. You can't
7:29call it a democracy. Just one more of
7:32the many reasons why you can't call
7:34this democracy, but I reiterate, I
7:36don't think proof will emerge, I don't
7:38think it's possible to get proof of the
7:40ballot boxes the way we have them today
7:42. I think you can point out a lot of
7:46anomalies, inconsistencies; more
7:47experts and analysts may appear showing
7:50that it's possible to violate the
7:51system, that it's possible to hack it,
7:53something like that, but in the end, I
7:55don't believe that will lead to
7:57anything. If there's any chance of
8:01reversing this result based on what
8:04happened in these elections, I imagine
8:07it's only because of Zanin's
8:09postponement. We'll talk more about
8:13that in today's video, but that's where
8:15I imagine there might be an element
8:17that could be used to annul the
8:19elections. I know there are already
8:22narratives saying no, but Flávio also
8:24asked for a postponement, so he can't
8:26complain. It's not quite like that.
8:29We'll see soon. And also, people are
8:32saying no, but from the moment they
8:33postponed it, only a few votes were
8:35added, and they weren't enough to
8:37reverse the situation. That's not the
8:40point, but it could be an argument used
8:42, and I think there's a good chance
8:44there really won't be a reversal from
8:46there. Which doesn't mean I'm calm and
8:51accept the result normally because, oh,
8:54there's no way to prove it, and so on,
8:56there's nothing I can do. I,
8:59unfortunately, don't trust our system
9:03at all. I don't even trust any audit
9:05that might be carried out later on, in
9:07an attempt to confirm anything at all.
9:10And that's why I think it will all end
9:12in nothing, as always, because in
9:14Brazil crime pays. We're tired of
9:15seeing that. Unfortunately, it's just
9:17another observation of this reality,
9:19which is sad and obvious at the same
9:23time, right? Ah, therefore, in the
9:28video I will also do that analysis I
9:31did 4 years ago, the most pessimistic
9:34and the most optimistic of what I think
9:37might come after this rather sad result
9:40. Obviously, I wanted to come here to
9:42laugh at the PT supporters, just like
9:44we did in the first round. It's ironic
9:48because now they're laughing in our
9:49faces, after all, we lost and now we're
9:51the ones crying. Not in the same way
9:54they did, though, right? Because, well,
9:57we saw the videos: they were really
9:59crying and out of control. But, oh, of
10:01course, this is our moment to be
10:03indignant and, obviously, there will be
10:06a lot of hypocrisy on their side, which
10:08is also normal, and, at this point in
10:10the game, pointing that out doesn't
10:13change anything. But they were, just a
10:15few weeks ago, desperate, right? They
10:18were spreading terror, saying things
10:20like, "Oh my God, because I won't be
10:21able to have sex anymore, right?
10:24Flávio Bolsonaro is going to ruin my
10:27same-sex relationship." They were
10:31desperate about the most idiotic things
10:32possible, and while today they pretend
10:38they're completely on top, that they
10:40simply won, it's that old saying, "he
10:43who laughs last laughs best," but it's
10:45not exactly that the left, the PT, won,
10:48right? The first round still exists.
10:52Just as this second round will most
10:53likely not be annulled, neither will
10:55the first. So we did indeed win in the
10:58Chamber, in the Senate, and in the
11:01governments. And of course, this has to
11:05be part of the analysis that will come
11:08from here on out, but it's also very
11:10interesting to realize that, even
11:12though their analyses were rubbish,
11:15right? They were completely out there,
11:17imagining the hypothetical Flávio who
11:18even became a meme. Now they are
11:22playing dumb, because what we had said
11:24would come to pass did not even take a
11:26single day to actually happen. And so
11:29there's no problem anymore, right? The
11:33dollar rose, the market plummeted. I
11:38think we can even start with that,
11:40right? Uh, before talking about the
11:43anomalies, we can talk about things
11:45that Lula himself has said before that
11:47would characterize fraud, right?
11:51Because here, look, Lula's spending
11:53meter shows that the president spent R
11:55$ 5 billion to get re-elected. Vote
12:00buying. This is an attack against
12:03democracy, abuse of political power,
12:05abuse of economic power. Many of these
12:08things were already said when, you know
12:10, they were in the opposition. Now it's
12:13okay, he can do whatever he wants. But
12:16what do these expenses, these 405
12:19billion reais spent to elect that
12:21drunkard, represent? They also
12:24represent an even bigger hole in our
12:26economy, which is already broken
12:28because of this wretch who is making
12:31everyone poorer. He was re-elected,
12:34right, through cheating. I'm not going
12:38to use my own words to say that. It was
12:42indeed through cheating, he stole, but
12:44he was re-elected, and the impact was
12:46immediately visible. Breaking news:
12:49More than 200 million reais evaporated
12:51from the Brazilian stock market at the
12:54opening after Lula da Silva won the
12:56Brazilian presidential election,
12:58defeating Flávio Bolsonaro. Actually,
13:01it's 200 billion reais, right? It's
13:04even strange to see a number with so
13:06many zeros. Well, that was one of the
13:08impacts. Then we also have the rise of
13:11the dollar, right, which skyrockets,
13:12reaching 560 after Lula's re-election.
13:14So, the Bovespa (Brazilian stock
13:15exchange) plummeted, right? And the
13:17dollar didn't stop rising, okay? It
13:20quickly passed R $ 60, almost reaching
13:23R $ 6. Look, let's
13:25>> also talk about the reactions of the
13:27financial market. Right now, the market
13:30is already reacting. Lula's reelection
13:33was already reacting last night. But
13:36now is the moment when we see this
13:39reaction in practice. The dollar just
13:42opened skyrocketing. The dollar, my
13:46friends, which seems like a distant
13:48world, but affects the price of rice.
13:51This is important because, as I said,
13:52the PT (Workers 'Party) supporters are
13:54now going crazy saying: "Oh my God, the
13:56dollar went up, but so what? Do you
13:58have dollars?" That's the part I even
14:02understand, those who think it wasn't
14:04fraud, it was just stupidity, because
14:06the vote of these imbeciles is worth as
14:07much as yours, as much as mine. But
14:10it's so obvious, right? Oh, the dollar
14:12went up. So what? So what? Does it
14:14affect the price of rice? Does it
14:16affect the price of many things you
14:17consume? It affects the price of beans,
14:20which is a staple on any Brazilian's
14:22table. Meanwhile, in addition to the
14:24soaring dollar, the Ibovespa, the
14:26so-called Ibovespa futures, plummeted
14:28by more than 14%. In short, that's a
14:32lot. Pedro Zanata, our deputy economics
14:34editor, is here at the CNN Money news
14:36center. Pedro,
14:39>> yes, it's a lot. And there's more. The
14:42Brazilian Stock Exchange activated its
14:45first circuit breaker since COVID,
14:47after a drop of more than 10%due to
14:49Lula's re-election. You all know this
14:55is going to be worse than Dilma's,
14:56right? We talked about how Lula broke
14:59the country. I don't want to get ahead
15:02of myself, but one of the few good
15:04things you can say about his
15:06re-election is that the fiscal bomb,
15:08the economic bomb he planted, which
15:10would be a cursed legacy that the right
15:13wing would need to disarm somehow, will
15:15at least explode in his lap, right? So,
15:21trying to see a bit of the positive
15:23side, I know it's difficult at a time
15:25like this, especially because, well,
15:27the fiscal bomb exploding, the economic
15:29bomb exploding means we're all going to
15:31be blown up together. So, well, it's
15:35not, right? But there it is, the first
15:38impacts are already being felt
15:40immediately, because the right's
15:42prediction is coming true, right? The
15:44left's prediction is just delusion. We
15:47didn't even need much time this time.
15:50Anyway, this is already the first
15:51impact of this aberration in the form
15:53of a second round that we saw. But now
15:57let's talk a little about the
15:58aberration itself. Because I'm
16:01absolutely certain it was rigged
16:03regardless of having irrefutable proof,
16:05because my God, the live broadcast from
16:07Argentina doesn't need any of that,
16:09okay? To me, it's just basic logic.
16:12There are some more complex
16:14mathematical issues. Some people have
16:18put together certain diagrams to try
16:20and show the probability of what
16:22occurred, but if you simply apply logic
16:24, you will see that a large amount of
16:27what took place during this second
16:29round does not make the slightest bit
16:31of sense. And here I've only described
16:35what happened, right? And you can
16:37already deduce a lot from that. The
16:41same country that elected the largest
16:42right-wing bloc in the history of the
16:44Chamber and the Senate, the largest
16:46number of governors, and that came out
16:48of the first round with Flávio leading
16:50, even though Lula was the only
16:52left-wing candidate, while Flávio
16:53split the vote with three or four other
16:55right-wing options, went to the second
16:57round and gave all the votes of the
16:59other right-wing candidates to Lula,
17:01plus some more, and even millions more
17:03votes in abstentions, to make a
17:04historic turnaround that had never
17:06happened before. It's as if the same
17:11country, right, that elects so many
17:13right-wing deputies, senators, and
17:15governors, and the Bolsonarism movement
17:17, which has the strength to elect all
17:19these figures, doesn't have the
17:21strength once again to elect precisely
17:24the one who fueled all these campaigns.
17:28There's no explanation. Many things are
17:30inexplicable. Flávio's support shrank
17:33in Minas Gerais, even though Nicolas is
17:35extremely strong in Minas Gerais and
17:37ran an incredible campaign for Flávio.
17:41There are several elements making it
17:42quite difficult. I know Minas Gerais is
17:45a separate curiosity. There are many
17:48strange things that happen in Minas
17:50Gerais during elections, but some are
17:52very hard to believe, and others are
17:54even stranger than Minas Gerais in this
17:56case. But this is a scenario that makes
18:00no sense at all, because Brazil has
18:01given a very clear demonstration that
18:03it wants to be governed by the right.
18:07When we elect this group of senators,
18:09deputies, and governors, we send a very
18:12clear signal at the polls that we want
18:15a right-wing government. This double
18:20backflip makes no sense. It makes no
18:23sense. Besides, all the polls that
18:26always get it wrong in favor of the
18:28left were predicting a victory for
18:29Flávio. OK, a poll getting the result
18:34wrong isn't that strange. Now, getting
18:39it wrong for the right, all of them,
18:41yes, that's very strange. All the main
18:43ones, right? If you don't consider
18:45those Marketeer polls, which were just
18:47campaign marketing. The map of Brazil
18:49in the first round, it ends up
18:51practically painted blue. All the
18:53events from the first round to the
18:55second were horrible for Lula. You saw
18:57that here on the channel. There was a
18:59campaign coordinator talking about
19:00burning believers. There was a PT
19:02supporter running over a child. There
19:03was audio of Vorcaro saying that Lula
19:05received dirty money. There was Roberta
19:07Luxinger revealing the whole corruption
19:09scheme they set up to steal from
19:10retirees. Lula had two disastrous
19:13debates, with the worst one being on
19:16Globo, and yet he managed to flip
19:18Brazil from right to left in every
19:20single state and in practically every
19:22municipality in just three weeks, even
19:24while he was doing absolutely
19:26everything wrong. All of Lula's
19:30dictator friends across Latin America
19:31rig their own elections just to win,
19:33even if it is by a margin of 1%. But
19:35the PT is the only one playing fair,
19:36right? Only the PT is clean. You have
19:40to be a real fool to even pretend this
19:42is a democracy. It's mathematically
19:44impossible, statistically impossible.
19:46The biggest robbery in the PT's history
19:48, which already has countless
19:49historical robberies. And here's what I
19:52really think, after this second round,
19:54there's no way to think of anything
19:55different from this. Écio beat Dilma,
19:59Jair beat Lula in the last election,
20:02and Flávio beat the PT. All of those
20:05were stolen. All of those with that
20:08tiny, close difference, which was
20:10already strange, now it's stranger than
20:13ever, because there were several
20:15records, right? For the first time, a
20:19candidate who wins in the first round
20:22loses in the second. For the first time
20:24, there's this turnaround, and in a
20:26totally suspicious way, with suspicious
20:27elements, right? A halt in the vote
20:30counting at the beginning, all the
20:32possible elements to raise suspicions.
20:36And since you can see that something
20:39was clearly wrong here, we're not going
20:44to reopen the suspicion. I think that
20:46they even say: "Ah, when the ballot
20:48boxes, when they win, they do not
20:50complain at all." No. Bolsonaro, in
20:52fact, complained about the 2018
20:54election, he thinks it was also rigged.
20:56And the PT supporters ridiculed that,
20:58saying, "That was the worst of all." He
21:01complained about fraud in an election
21:02he won. But this shows consistency, it
21:04shows precisely that we never trusted
21:07the ballot boxes. That's why we've been
21:09trying to change this system for a long
21:10time. But people stopped, right? Those
21:13opposed to Bolsonaro have now abandoned
21:15the issue because it's become a
21:16Bolsonaro agenda, even though they all
21:18know that our voting system is an
21:20unauditable mess and needs change. But
21:24there it is, right? It's the system
21:26that ensured the PT stayed in power
21:28forever. I even saw an interesting
21:30comment. Since 2002, the PT has never
21:35lost an election while controlling the
21:38state, having the machinery of
21:40government in its hands, because when
21:42it lost, in 2018, theoretically the
21:45machinery was no longer in their hands,
21:47it was in Temer's hands. So, it seems
21:51the PT knows very well what to do when
21:53it has the machinery in its hands,
21:55right? He already has it, he knows
21:56everything, he knows every scheme and
21:58manages to work miracles, pulling votes
22:00from where they do not exist. And if
22:03you, like me, believe that this wasn't
22:05the first stolen election, then the PT
22:08has stolen at least 12 years of
22:09government. At least. Maybe we say, "
22:13Man, those guys, those bastards, should
22:14have been taken down with the Mensalão
22:16scandal. They shouldn't have passed the
22:18first government." Maybe not. Can you
22:22imagine? Yeah, there's a world where
22:24Lula won the first election and never
22:26again, but he got away with all the
22:27others. I know, the differences were
22:30bigger, right? He had a bit more
22:32popularity back then. The opposition
22:35was less incisive, partly because there
22:37were no social media and so on. The
22:40media had more power to manipulate, but
22:45we don't trust it. Basically, no
22:47politician really blindly trusted the
22:50ballot boxes. That only changed once
22:52Bolsonarism complained about the urns.
22:55Then many started to trust them blindly
22:57. Before that, no, everyone was
22:58suspicious, right? But democracy is a
23:01big deal. Every time a project to audit
23:03the ballot boxes to make fraud more
23:05difficult is passed, they find a way to
23:07block it. This has been the case since
23:082002, when Lula won for the first time,
23:10taking away the "Brazil only button"
23:12model, right? That's what I already
23:13said too. Even the PT supporters must
23:16know they won through cheating, but
23:17they like to steal, so they should even
23:19be proud of it. Bunch of thieves, sons
23:22of [ __ ]. I'm at a point where I
23:25think everyone else realizes that you
23:28can't consider this election normal.
23:32For me, whoever says no, no, no, "I
23:33don't think it was rigged, I think
23:35there's an explanation for this, I
23:37don't know what," is either afraid to
23:39speak up because we know that...our
23:40country is so democratic that we can't
23:42question our electoral system, or
23:44they're saying this just because they
23:46wanted this result, because they're PT
23:48supporters, or because they're MBL
23:49sheep celebrating, which, by the way,
23:51my God, right? The MBL sheep
23:53celebrating, uh, gloating over Lula's
23:56success. It's one of the most
23:57disgusting and grotesque things I've
23:59ever seen. Uh, the little respect I
24:02might have still had for the MBL as a
24:04group, I've completely lost now seeing
24:06them partying. They're not exactly an
24:08auxiliary force of the PT (Workers'
24:10Party), but they're celebrating Lula's
24:11victory, they're gloating over Lula's
24:13achievements, saying a bunch of crap
24:14like, no, no, no, it's not possible,
24:16it's not possible, okay? It's truly
24:18disgusting. I have to say this because
24:21sometimes there are still some MBL (
24:23Free Brazil Movement) people who are
24:24like, "Hey, I like you, man. Stop
24:26liking me, man. Stop liking me. You,
24:28MBL, are crap." Or they stop liking the
24:31MBL and realize that it's crap, that
24:32these guys are celebrating Lula's
24:34victory, they say they don't. "Oh, we
24:36don't like either of them," but clearly
24:38they're rooting for Lula's victory. So,
24:41I don't want any kind of close
24:43relationship with anyone who even
24:45minimally accepts the idea of Lula as
24:48president. I think that's good enough,
24:51right? But let's go. I've already made
24:54some points here, right? Now let's
24:56delve a little deeper into these
24:58strange things. Look at this here in
25:00Rio de Janeiro, Lula's performance in
25:02the first round: he got 3,600,000 votes
25:07. 600,093 votes. I'm going to round the
25:10numbers, right? Saying the exact
25:11numbers would be really lame. So, in
25:13the first round he got 3,700,000. Then
25:16in the second round he increased to
25:184,500. That's a difference of 872,000
25:23votes. Abstentions in the first round
25:27were almost 3 million, right? So that
25:30was 23%. And abstentions in the second
25:33round dropped a little, right? It went
25:36to 2,780,000, a drop of 21.62%. That
25:42was a difference of 217,000 voters.
25:45Lots of numbers, I know, but the
25:46important thing comes now. Considering
25:49that Lula won 100%of the 217,000 votes,
25:52he still gained another 654,000 votes
25:56from voters who had voted for other
25:59candidates. And look, the total votes
26:02for Curizê, Macaiado, and Renan Santos
26:05is 707,000 votes. 708,000 votes. Go on.
26:10Of those 708,000 votes, Lula won
26:12654,000, even with Curizê Caiado and
26:14Zema declaring support for Flávio
26:17Bolsonaro. And supposedly Renan's
26:19voters being more right-wing.
26:21Supposedly the electoral phenomenon.
26:24Lula. If you got lost amidst so many
26:26numbers, I'll explain it in an even
26:28simpler way. Do you realize that this
26:32means he won 100%of the abstentions and
26:34another 92.46%of the votes for Zema,
26:39Caiado, Curizê, and Renan? Not even in
26:44the Northeast could Lula organically
26:46achieve something like this, but he did
26:48it in Rio de Janeiro. If we look at
26:51some states, some cities, you realize
26:53the numbers are completely impossible.
26:57Some PT supporters are saying, "Oh, no,
26:59but look, some voters switched their
27:01votes, right? Some people who voted for
27:04Flávio switched their votes to Lula."
27:08That percentage is also ridiculous.
27:12We're in an extremely polarized
27:14election. It's not like in the first
27:18round, like, "No, Flávio got a lot of
27:20votes, but it was votes from people who
27:22didn't really know, who voted kind of
27:24haphazardly." Look at the composition
27:27of the Senate, the Chamber of Deputies,
27:29and the state governments. The right
27:32didn't vote randomly. They weren't
27:36random votes. They weren't votes from
27:39people who, oh, I don't know, I'll vote
27:40for Flávio, "and then changed their
27:41minds for the second round. There's no
27:45way to believe in a substantial shift
27:47in votes from Flávio to Lula,
27:48especially because if you want to put
27:50that on the scale, wow, fine. Many
27:54people switched their votes from
27:55Flávio to Lula, which is the hardest
27:57thing to believe, because it's already
27:58difficult to believe that someone who
28:00votes for Caiado would massively vote
28:02for Lula. That's already hard. It's
28:04even hard with Renan, it's not just
28:06hard. All the polls indicated that most
28:08of the voters for these candidates
28:10would vote for Flávio, right? Once
28:12again, polls that were always in favor
28:14of the left were now all pointing to
28:16these voters actually migrating more to
28:18Flávio than to Lula. So, if it's
28:22already difficult to imagine votes
28:24migrating from Caiado to Lula, it's
28:27much harder to imagine votes migrating
28:29from Flávio to Lula, especially
28:31considering that the opposite should
28:33also happen, people migrating from Lula
28:35to Flávio. It's possible. Oh, but I
28:39don't know what, because there was
28:41Lula's terrorist campaign. At the same
28:43time, Lula was terrible in the debates.
28:45At the same time, there were a lot of
28:47scandals involving Lula. At the same
28:50time, he was making a huge effort to
28:52get the votes of believers, and then he
28:54put a woman in his campaign's marketing
28:57campaign saying she wants to close the
28:59church and burn believers. So Lula
29:01didn't lose anything, nothing.
29:05Understand that, to believe this, you
29:08have to, man, you have to play dumb,
29:11because it's a highly improbable
29:13scenario, bordering on impossible. In
29:16this case, it's only not mathematically
29:19impossible because, okay, it didn't
29:21exceed 100%of the votes of all kinds,
29:23and even if it did, you could still say
29:25:" Ah, maybe he got 100%of the
29:27abstentions, 100%of the third-party
29:29votes, and even swayed some of
29:30Flávio's votes. "But look, there is no
29:32way you can trust this, because even if
29:34he did manage to sway some of Flávio's
29:36votes, these numbers would still be
29:38quite absurd. He would still have to
29:40have, like, 80%of the abstentions and
29:4280%of the third-party votes. He
29:46couldn't do that even in the Northeast,
29:48because he didn't even do it in the
29:50Northeast in the normal voting. Not a
29:56single region, not even those where
29:58he's completely strong, where he
30:01monopolizes, not even in those regions
30:04did he reach a 92%difference. And here
30:08we're looking at Rio de Janeiro because
30:11the macro-level analysis of this is
30:13just as bizarre and inexplicable. So,
30:16you'll have to excuse me, but I can't,
30:19I just can't. I saw some people trying
30:21to explain it. Oh, but Flávio's vote
30:24changed. Oh, but the campaign went very
30:26well. Oh, but he put in a lot of money.
30:28Oh, but I don't know what. It doesn't
30:30explain it, man. For me, the only thing
30:33that explains this is fraud. And so,
30:36excuse me, but I find it much easier to
30:39believe that the PT, the most corrupt
30:41party in history, a friend of several
30:43dictators who rig their elections, I
30:45find it much more likely that this
30:47shitty party could indeed rig an
30:49election than to believe in this
30:51statistical miracle, which is almost
30:53impossible. And because Lula's campaign
30:57was the most phenomenal thing that
30:58exists, it's impossible. It is much
31:01easier for the PT to have simply
31:02committed fraud, because they are
31:04criminals. Criminals do these things,
31:06you know? They even steal elections. So
31:09, I'm sure. I'm sure. And many other
31:13strange things happened. Flávio loses
31:165.7%and Lula wins 14%in Santa Catarina.
31:21It makes no sense at all. You're going
31:24to tell me that in Santa Catarina there
31:26was a massive number of voters who
31:28switched their votes from Flávio to
31:30Lula in Santa Catarina. You've never
31:33set foot in Santa Catarina to say that.
31:35I've been to Santa Catarina several
31:36times. People from Rio Grande do Sul
31:37are always going to Santa Catarina.
31:38Several cities in Santa Catarina. It's
31:41so detached from reality to think that
31:44this is possible. No, no, this, this,
31:47this doesn't exist, my dears. It
31:49doesn't exist, it doesn't exist. I
31:51can't, mathematically it's not possible
31:54to explain, it doesn't exist. And this
31:58is just the beginning, okay? Okay, look
32:03here, I was even going to leave this
32:05for later when I talked about the polls
32:10. Yeah, I'll talk about this first, it
32:12makes more sense to bring this up first
32:13. Look at this. This guy made a model
32:17to try to understand the probability of
32:18what happened. I downloaded all TSE
32:21data from 2014 to 2026, as well as
32:23electoral polls from that same period.
32:26I ran two Monte Carlo tests with
32:28millions of random electoral scenarios.
32:32Test one considered the historical
32:33errors of the polls, and test two
32:35considered the transfer of votes from
32:37the third option. Do you understand
32:39this? He ran millions of random results
32:43, millions of random experiments, in
32:45order to determine what the probability
32:47of one thing or another happening truly
32:49was in that case. Testing two scenarios
32:52, right? First, considering that the
32:54polls historically err, but,
32:55importantly, they historically err in
32:57favor of the left. Yes, it's also
32:59historically true that they have erred
33:01in favor of the right, and also
33:02considering this massive transfer of
33:04votes from the third option. These are
33:06already two highly improbable scenarios
33:09. The main leftist polls consistently
33:12erred in favor of Flávio, and the
33:14transfer of votes that they all
33:16indicated would be more beneficial to
33:18Flávio actually went to Lula. And even
33:22so, in the first test, yesterday's
33:25result would only happen once in every
33:28515 scenarios. In other words, the
33:32probability of that happening,
33:33considering the historical errors of
33:35the polls, is 0.019%. That's what's
33:41called statistically impossible, right?
33:49In the second test, yesterday's result
33:51would only happen once in every 3,636
33:54scenarios, 0.027%. I saw several people
33:59making models, and the ones I saw
34:01giving the highest percentages were,
34:04like, the probability of what Lula did
34:06happening naturally. The highest number
34:10I saw was 8%. 8%. Several models,
34:18generally staying at less than 1%chance
34:20of a miracle happening. That's why even
34:22PT supporters are saying it was an
34:23electoral miracle. They're using the
34:25term miracle because they know. There's
34:28no logical explanation for it; it was a
34:32miracle, but miracles have a name:
34:35fraud, right? And with fraud, you can
34:37pull off an electoral miracle. That's
34:39really it. If you have to go far enough
34:41to recognize patterns, it's all very
34:43clear. I even ran a test three times
34:46for signs of fraud, but then no, he
34:48said it couldn't be emulated because...
34:50well, there's no audit. Anyway, the
34:53most important thing is this: he ran
34:55these two tests. This same guy also
34:56tweeted in 2022. And this is another
34:58argument that I had also thought of,
35:00which is extremely obvious, right?
35:01There is one more thing for which you
35:03do not even need a test to reach this
35:04conclusion. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro had
35:08immense rejection. The pandemic was
35:10fresh in everyone's memory, and this
35:12obviously impacted the election results
35:14. Lula won, and so Bolsonaro had a lot
35:17of rejection in 2022, and Lula came
35:19with the emotional memory of people
35:22from his first terms. So, Lula's
35:25rejection rate was much lower,
35:27Bolsonaro's was much higher. Lula won
35:29by a margin of 1.8%in 2022. Now in 2026
35:32, with Lula breaking the Brazilian
35:34economy and against Flávio, who has a
35:36much lower rejection rate than his
35:38father, much lower, there's no denying
35:40that. The polls prove it, including
35:42Lula winning by a margin of 3.6%. So,
35:46when Lula had a lower rejection rate
35:48and his opponent had a higher rejection
35:50rate, the difference was narrower.
35:56There are many scenarios you have to
35:58ignore for this to make any sense, okay
36:00? Look at this. For Lula to reach the
36:0564.2 million votes he received, what
36:07would he need? He would need to
36:10maintain 100%of the votes he received
36:12in the first round. Nobody stops voting
36:15for Lula, and nobody switches votes
36:16from Lula to Flávio. He needs to
36:18maintain all his votes. And that's
36:19something nobody considers, right? Oh,
36:22no. Of course, Lula may have taken
36:23votes from here and there, and people
36:25may not have voted for Flávio. It's
36:26funny, all the scenarios always require
36:28stretching things a lot, because this
36:29is a statistical impossibility. So, yes
36:31, you'll have to stretch things to
36:32explain it. They always imagine that,
36:34like, everything went wrong for Flávio
36:35. Like, nobody voted for Flávio. Many
36:38people switched their votes to Lula
36:39instead of Flávio. The third option
36:41that everyone indicated they would vote
36:43for, Flávio, changed their minds,
36:44voted for him, and all the abstentions
36:45went to him. It's a lot that has no
36:49explanation. And all the people who
36:51elected that Senate, that Chamber,
36:53suddenly thought:" I don't care, I want
36:55Lula to govern. "I, I think the perfect
36:58president for that Senate, for that
37:00Chamber, for those governments, is Lula
37:02, right? So, Lula, since everything
37:06went right for him, he would need to
37:08maintain 100%of the votes he received
37:09in the first round. He would need to
37:12have won over 100%of the 3 million
37:14voters who didn't abstain, all the
37:16abstentions. It doesn't have to go to
37:18Lula either. He needs to receive 100%of
37:21the 1.8 million votes that were
37:23previously annulled. That is, 100%of
37:26the abstentions, 100%of the null and
37:28blank votes, right? And then he would
37:30still have to win over about 60%of the
37:33votes of the other candidates, Augusto
37:35Curi, Renan Caiado, and Zema. Even if
37:40Lula gets 100%of all the votes from
37:42people who didn't vote, he would still
37:44have to get 60%of the votes from the
37:46third option, which were generally
37:48votes from the right. Oh, but he might
37:55still have gotten some votes from
37:56Flávio. Yes. If you really believe
38:00that he captured 100%of the new votes
38:02that were previously abstentions, of
38:04the new votes that were previously
38:06blank and null, and captured a large
38:08slice of the third-way votes that,
38:09according to the polls themselves, were
38:12supposed to transfer to the right, he
38:14would still have to capture some votes
38:16from Flávio to avoid it looking so
38:18bizarre, so absurd. And Flávio does
38:20nothing about that. No, man, it's
38:23simply not possible, okay? Believing
38:26this is very far-fetched. It's simply
38:31very far-fetched. Here's the research
38:33to show, look, the new polls from Meio
38:35Ideia show where the votes for Caiado,
38:37Curem, Renan, and Zema will go in the
38:39second round. The survey reveals that
38:40the majority of the electorate of
38:42candidates eliminated in the first
38:44round choose Flávio Bolsonaro. And it
38:45was a significant amount, okay? Oh,
38:48five days ago, the polls revealed that
38:50most of the votes for the third option
38:52would go to Flávio, which is natural,
38:53since all the candidates positioned
38:55themselves on the right and strongly
38:57against the PT (Workers 'Party), even
38:58declaring support for Flávio, except
39:00for Renan. But the elections revealed
39:03that 90%of right-wingers decided to
39:04vote for Lula, and anyone who doesn't
39:06believe in this miracle is a coup
39:08plotter. Yeah, yeah, it's really hard
39:12to believe. Oh, what else? Let's look
39:18at this, Lula's disapproval rating was
39:20over 50%, plus some other things that
39:22make it difficult to understand this
39:24electoral miracle, right? Lula's
39:26disapproval rating remained extremely
39:27high, right? It's the highest
39:30disapproval rating of all his
39:31governments. He has scandals in all
39:35institutions. The media denouncing him,
39:37including Globo, a turnaround from the
39:39first to the second round.
39:40Unprecedented, right? This is something
39:42that had never happened before, and
39:44even more so on this scale. No votes
39:47transferred, a huge reduction in
39:49abstentions, a 2-hour stoppage in the
39:51middle of voting and counting. We'll
39:53talk more about that too. All the
39:54polling institutes were wrong. The
39:57entire campaign was full of exposed
40:00lies. More people in the streets for
40:02the candidate who lost, right? The
40:03right-wing demonstrations were larger.
40:05Fewer people in the streets for the
40:06candidate who increased his vote count
40:08by 10 million, and different locations
40:09reporting problems. An increase in
40:11candidates with over 50%rejection in
40:13all regions of the country, including
40:15states that predominantly elected the
40:16right. A historic vote for the right in
40:19the first round. I understand. It must
40:21be just a coincidence. Anyway, the guy
40:23is just showing several bizarre things
40:25that happened, which are really hard to
40:26believe. Here, look, CNN reported this
40:30information. In 2026, 71%of the votes
40:34in the second round, of the new votes
40:36in the second round, went to Lula. 71%
40:40of all the new votes in the second
40:42round went to Lula. Do you have any
40:46idea what that means? I wrote here that
40:47Lula did this on a national level,
40:49because here we're talking about the
40:50whole of Brazil. We saw, wow, look what
40:52happened in Rio de Janeiro. Kind of
40:54impossible, right? Look what happened
40:55in Santa Catarina. Bizarre. Now let's
40:57talk about the whole of Brazil. On a
41:01national level, Lula won 71%of the new
41:03votes in this second round. That is, of
41:08the people who hadn't voted before or
41:10who had voted for other candidates, 71%
41:12of them voted for Lula. He doesn't do
41:18that in any state in the Northeast, not
41:20even in his strongest states does he
41:23reach that percentage. But he managed
41:26to do it on a national level. Obviously
41:31, if we're going to say that Lula could
41:33have done well in the second round,
41:34could have improved in the second round
41:35, that could happen. The normal thing
41:39would be for him to at least maintain
41:41an average equivalent to the rest of
41:43the states. So, if in the best states
41:47Lula is hitting 70%and in the worst
41:49he's reaching around 35%, maybe 40%, I
41:54don't know, put it in the middle, you
41:56don't know, Lula achieved an average of
41:5860%, and then across the whole of
41:59Brazil you do these calculations. Then
42:02he'll reach more or less that 60%figure
42:04. Of course, the Northeast, as always,
42:07catapulted votes much more than the
42:09other regions, but Lula grew in all
42:11municipalities, all states, practically
42:13all. I think there were, like, I don't
42:16know, it's a bizarrely small number, I
42:18think like 16 municipalities where
42:20Flávio did better. But this just
42:22doesn't make sense, man. He did better
42:26nationally than he did in the PT
42:28regions. It's another thing that's
42:31inexplicable. So, this overnight
42:35preference of a bizarrely high number
42:38of Brazilians for Lula, after
42:40everything that happened, has no
42:43explanation, none at all. I know a lot
42:47of people talk about vote buying, you
42:49know, I don't know, but honestly, for
42:51me it's very difficult to explain with
42:53anything other than fraud. Here's a
42:55short video summarizing what happened
42:57in the elections. And no, it's not a
42:59video talking about fraud or anything,
43:01but the scale is so bizarre. Flávio
43:04Bolsonaro gained almost 4 million votes
43:06from the first to the second round and
43:08still lost the election. The vote radar
43:10analyzed the 5,500 cities in both
43:12rounds to show where Flávio lost.
43:15Counting only the two rounds, Flávio
43:17had 51%of the votes in the first round.
43:20In the second, he got 48.2%, a drop of
43:222.8 points, and he lost in all 27
43:24states. Where he lost the most was in
43:27Rio
43:27>> de Janeiro, all of
43:29>> Rio de Janeiro, which I showed you.
43:31It's impossible, it simply doesn't make
43:33sense. You can try to explain to me in
43:35a billion different ways how what
43:37happened in Rio de Janeiro could have
43:39made sense. I still won't be able to
43:40believe it, man. Sorry. 7.4 to...
43:42>> And I honestly think that even you
43:44don't believe you're only doing this.
43:45Either because you prefer Lula's
43:49victory and want to say you're not
43:51happy with an obviously fraudulent
43:53victory, or because you're afraid to
43:56say what you really think.
43:57>> 53.1%. In São Paulo, from 57.6 to 53.9
44:02. In Goiás, from 63.3 to 59,
44:08>> Lula won consistently in all states. It
44:10makes no sense.
44:11>> Seventh. Santa Catarina and Paraná
44:13lost more than three points. The
44:14smallest drop was in Piauí and Bahia.
44:16In Baixada Fluminense, the drop reached
44:18five points. Belford Roxo, São João
44:20de Meriti, Duque de Caxias and Novo
44:22Iguaçu. In Campos dos Goitacazes,
44:24Flávio even had fewer votes than in
44:26the first round. This happened in 971
44:28cities.
44:30>> Look at that, man. In 971 cities,
44:31Flávio had fewer votes than in the
44:33first round. Okay. Oh, that's normal,
44:36right? There are usually more
44:37abstentions in the second round because
44:39it's just a presidential election,
44:41fewer people vote. But not this time.
44:44This time there was a decrease in
44:47abstentions. More people went to vote,
44:49but all those people went to vote only
44:51for Lula. Oh, it's unbelievable.
44:54>> The biggest reason
44:55>> is that they were engaged. It's because
44:57the Bolsonaro supporters were in the"
44:58it's already won "mindset. It's
45:00incredible. The whole narrative only
45:02serves to paint that picture. Like,
45:04there are never any PT supporters who
45:06are in the" it's already won "mood,
45:08right? And so they don't vote. There
45:10are never any voters who aren't at all
45:12on either side, but who might lean more
45:14towards Bolsonaro because they thought
45:16everything Lula did was a disaster. No,
45:19in the end, uh, the one who thinks he's
45:21already won is Flávio. There's no
45:24discouragement, because, at the same
45:25time that you have the" it's already
45:26won "effect on the side of the one
45:27who's leading, you have discouragement
45:29on the side of the one who's losing,
45:30right? Many people might think," My God
45:32, there's no way this can turn around.
45:33"Because everything indicated that it
45:35was impossible. It’s no accident that
45:37everything, all the polls, all were
45:39wrong. And so there's no discouragement
45:43, right? No, no, nobody got discouraged
45:44. In fact, everyone became even more
45:47excited to go vote and completely
45:49believed in this miraculous turnaround.
45:53>> It was Macapá. 3,785 fewer votes. 213
45:57cities switched from Flávio to Lula,
45:5976 of them in Minas Gerais, which had
46:01given Flávio in the first round and
46:03gave Lula in the second. In the
46:05interior of São Paulo, he continued to
46:07win, but dropped four points: Ribeirão
46:08Preto, São José dos Campos, and
46:10Piracicaba. In total, Flávio gained
46:133,800,000 new votes. Lula gained
46:15400,000. Of every 10 new votes, seven
46:19went to Lula.
46:20>> Out of every 10 new votes, seven are
46:22for Lula, which is what we saw before
46:24the 71%figure. I'll repeat. If you
46:29believe that, you're a fool to me. I
46:31can't. It doesn't make sense. It just
46:34doesn't make sense that the same
46:35country that elected this group to the
46:37Chamber of Deputies, the Senate, and
46:38these governors to the second round did
46:43this? There's no explanation. And Lula,
46:50after everything that happened, grew
46:52tremendously from the 2022 election to
46:54this one. It's too much to believe for
46:58me to ignore. Anyway, look, right? Oh,
47:02there was the shutdown. Let me see if
47:04this is what I'm actually going to read
47:06a little bit here, because this is
47:08Trump's lawyer, right? And he's very
47:10vocal about this. He's Trump's lawyer,
47:13the one who speaks Portuguese and who's
47:15kind of a representative of, I don't
47:16know, I don't remember exactly his
47:18position. I know he's Trump's lawyer,
47:20but he was the lawyer, including in the
47:22case involving Chandon, right? And he's
47:24a smart guy who speaks Portuguese well,
47:26understands it very well. And he's
47:28commenting here on what happened, look.
47:30He commented on a CNN article saying
47:32that Lula gained those 10 million extra
47:35votes. And he said:" They want us to
47:38believe that Lula, who lost votes in
47:40this—this is interesting—they want
47:42us to believe that Lula, who lost votes
47:44in 98%of the municipalities and lost a
47:46huge number of seats in Congress two
47:48weeks ago, somehow gained 11 million
47:50votes when nobody was watching and won
47:52today. "I don't know if his former
47:55lawyer, now acting as a judge, might
47:57help him out; that's the matter of the
47:58anim we are still going to see. Lula
48:03had lost votes in 98%of the
48:05municipalities, which shows that he was
48:07burned out, with massive rejection. And
48:09the PT [Workers' Party] didn't have the
48:11strength to place any politician
48:13anywhere. Practically the left, the
48:14little it managed to do, wasn't even
48:16from the PT. How, how is it possible
48:19that a presidential candidate who
48:21doesn't have the political strength to
48:24help elect a single representative,
48:26senator, or governor who isn't in the
48:28Northeast, and even in the Northeast it
48:31was difficult, even in the Northeast it
48:33was difficult. He doesn't have the
48:36national strength to elect any
48:37politician anywhere, but now he's
48:40performed this miracle. Trump's lawyer
48:44here is talking, they want us to
48:45believe this [ __ ], that the guy
48:47knows about fraud, right? Yeah, he's
48:49certainly well aware of that. Let's see
48:52some more opinions on this. Oh, this is
48:55also a very interesting point. If Lula
49:00carried out the largest electoral
49:01mobilization in Brazilian history,
49:03which is what he needed to do for this
49:05miraculous result, then this
49:06mobilization simply wasn't noticed by
49:08anyone, not even by the left itself.
49:11Nobody noticed it, man. Nobody. It
49:16wasn't captured by a single poll, not
49:18even by companies favorable to the left
49:21like Datafolha Quest, nor the internal
49:23polls of the parties captured it.
49:25Nobody, nothing captured this
49:27phenomenon, nothing. The sheer madness
49:30of this. It wasn't picked up by any
49:33internal party tracking system, it
49:35wasn't picked up by Polymarket, nor by
49:36any betting house. In fact, it was the
49:39first time in history that Polymarket
49:40was wrong. It's simply an inexplicable
49:42phenomenon. So, if you want to blame it
49:45, like, okay, right? No, no, this is
49:46all very much a conspiracy theory. It
49:48may have simply been a very large
49:49mobilization of the left, because they
49:51ran a very good campaign, because they
49:52turned a lot of votes from Flávio to
49:53Lula. No poll, no internal tracking
49:57system, not even Polymarket, absolutely
49:59nothing managed to minimally track this
50:02. The polls that are crazy to predict
50:07victory for Lula, to campaign for Lula,
50:09to milk Lula in every way, even they
50:11couldn't perceive this movement at all,
50:14not even the day before, nothing. So
50:19you can believe it if you want, right?
50:21Now that we've talked about uh
50:24Polymarket, there's this too, look. Eli
50:27shared:" Voting in Venezuela is
50:29postponed for an hour. Opposition
50:31denounces its entire family. "And then
50:33I commented:" All of Lula's friends are
50:35dictators who rig their elections,
50:36except for him. Just like all of Lula's
50:38friends are bandits and corrupt, except
50:39for him. "And that's interesting
50:41because look, this guy even corrected
50:43that information that PolyMarket had
50:45never been wrong. Look, the only
50:46elections PolyMarket got wrong were
50:48Brazil and Venezuela. Why? What do they
50:50have in common? So, PolyMarket was
50:54already wrong in Venezuela, which was
50:57rigged, and now it's wrong again in
51:01Brazil, which was fair, democratic,
51:04normal. In both elections there was a
51:08stoppage. Then some people will say:"
51:10No, PolyMarket was right at the moment
51:15when Zanin stopped the election after
51:17the period he could do so, if he could
51:20even do that. "At that moment,
51:23PolyMarket, actually, a few minutes, I
51:25think like 9 minutes after the stoppage
51:27, PolyMarket reversed it and gave the
51:29victory to Lula. That just makes it
51:33more bizarre, okay? It's not a
51:35favorable argument. In fact, when the
51:37left says," Oh, you don't believe in
51:38the voting machines anymore, "but when
51:39you're winning, you believe them. In
51:41the first round, nobody complained.
51:43They don't realize that the fact that
51:45the same voting machines gave that
51:47victory in the first round and now have
51:49behaved completely differently only
51:50makes it stranger, because," Oh, how
51:52can the first round be reliable? "First
51:54, in the first round, was there any
51:56undue paralysis with the Supreme
51:57Federal Court (STF) overriding the
51:59Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to
52:00completely change the electoral
52:01dynamics for the first time in history?
52:03There was nothing strange like that in
52:05the first round. Second, we imagine
52:08that it's simply much more difficult to
52:11rig elections at a micro level; that is
52:13, to rig the election of a deputy, a
52:16federal deputy, a state deputy, a
52:19senator, even a governor, to rig
52:21thousands of elections, small elections
52:24across the country, is very likely much
52:27more complex and much more expensive,
52:30even, than to rig a single presidential
52:32election, even if it's a national
52:36election. That's simply it. How do you
52:39explain it? For me, that's it. Because
52:41it's clear that I imagine that if they
52:43have the means, they won't allow that
52:45composition of the Senate and Chamber
52:47to be assembled. Of course, that was
52:49their interest, but I imagine that it's
52:51possibly more difficult. And I also
52:53imagine that fraud has a limit. So,
52:56it's possible they even tried to rig
52:58some elections in the Chamber and
52:59Senate and governorships. They may have
53:02succeeded in a few in the Northeast,
53:05even. And they may not have managed to
53:09create a sufficient difference to
53:11impact the final result. As in general,
53:13I'm not going to say now, I can't say
53:15that I don't believe it could have
53:17happened, even in 2018, Bolsonaro
53:19should have won by an even larger
53:21margin over Haddad. Seeing all this,
53:24it's difficult to think of anything
53:26else. Well, oh, what else do we have
53:29here? 90%of Caiado's voters in Amicuri
53:32voted for Lula. All the polling
53:34institutes were wrong. Oh, the centrist
53:36bloc was wrong to support Flávio. Exit
53:38polls were wrong. All this amidst
53:39electoral crime in Bahia. Legal,
53:41unilateral elections for Supreme Court
53:43justices at 5:01 PM and another 400
53:45billion spent on the election. Hmm,
53:47nothing unusual to see here, look. Here
53:49we're seeing, right, another
53:51statistical anomaly. The elections were
53:53normal. Don't question those who
53:55annulled or skipped the first round
53:58versus those who voted in the second in
54:002014, 18, 22, and 26. This graph isn't
54:02normal, my friends. Look, discrepant,
54:05completely detached from all the other
54:07results that were at least a little
54:08more logical. Here you have an
54:11impossible difference, basically
54:12impossible. Almost everyone who went to
54:14vote, who hadn't gone to vote, voted
54:15for only one candidate. Oh, man, I'm
54:19sorry, I really feel like a fool if I
54:21say:" No, I believe this, there's
54:23nothing strange about it. "And then
54:27they might be saying:" But Flávio, he
54:30also asked for an extension, right? So,
54:35the request accepted the position of
54:38both. That's a lie, right? CNN here for
54:42you. A historically more left-leaning
54:45broadcaster, right? So I think it's a
54:48reliable source.
54:50>> He could have somehow delimited this
54:52decision, limited it to the states and
54:54cities that ended up being affected so
54:56as not to generate this legal
54:58uncertainty. More than that, he could
55:00have made the decision and already
55:02given instructions. Closed ballot boxes
55:05are not reopened. Open ballot boxes
55:08will remain open. So that was the big
55:10confusion that the ministers are now
55:12trying to reach a consensus on in an
55:13internal discussion.
55:15>> The other point is also Flávio
55:16Bolsonaro's request; he is not the
55:18Supreme Federal Court. That's why
55:21Minister Cristiano Zanim doesn't attend
55:23to both campaigns. He attends to the
55:25request of President Lula's campaign.
55:28>> Lula's former lawyer only attended to
55:30Lula. He attends to Lula's campaign
55:32request alone, contradicting the
55:34position of the entire Supreme Court in
55:36Regarding this, bypassing the TSE (
55:38Superior Electoral Court). You see it
55:41in every way. This is absurd. First,
55:44when Flávio found out that Lula and
55:51the PT (Workers 'Party) were trying
55:52this maneuver, right, to win through
55:54backroom deals, to do something shady,
55:56who knows what, he thought: "Well,
55:58since they're going to extend the
55:59deadlines in PT-controlled states,
56:01let's try to extend them in states that
56:03might also favor us." But he went to,
56:08at least in theory, the right place to
56:10make this request, because the TSE is
56:12supposedly, theoretically...I've seen
56:14many people saying that the existence
56:17of the TSE is an aberration, that most
56:19countries don't even have a court
56:21specifically for elections. But if it
56:23exists, what's the use? If Lula goes
56:29directly to the STF (Supreme Federal
56:30Court), the STF minister signs it with
56:31a stroke of the pen, bypasses the TSE,
56:33and that's it. Flávio, at least, went
56:35to the right place, which was the TSE,
56:36to request it, but he wasn't heard,
56:38right, by the...Zanin. So he went to
56:40the right place. Lula went straight to
56:43the minister, who was his personal
56:45lawyer, right, brother, who went there
56:48quickly after the election had already
56:50been paralyzed, several ballot boxes
56:52had already been sealed, he went there
56:54and extended it, which generated a
56:56bizarre legal mess, a chaotic situation
56:59. And then the PT supporters are saying
57:01: "Ah, but very few votes were changed
57:03from that point on, right?""Just a few
57:05thousand." That's not the issue. I
57:08think the concern isn't that, well,
57:10during this strike, many people went to
57:12vote and then it turned out like this.
57:15No. The thing is, before the counting
57:17even started, there was an atypical,
57:19unprecedented 2-hour strike that
57:24completely changed the landscape of the
57:26counting. And, besides all that, the
57:29counting itself was historically
57:30unprecedented because it was totally
57:32outside the pattern we're used to. So
57:35much so that Lula took the lead, then
57:36was overtaken, and then overtook him
57:37again. As a rule, this isn't even close
57:40to what happens in second-round
57:41elections in Brazil, which tend to
57:43follow a more or less consistent
57:44pattern. So much so that during the
57:45counting I was prepared to compare it
57:47to historical patterns, and it wasn't
57:49possible because it was done in such a
57:51bizarre way that it changed the entire
57:53historical pattern of Brazil. But
57:54there's nothing strange here. Well,
57:57what else? Then there's this very
58:00strange timeline too. Look. At 8 in the
58:04morning, union members from all over
58:05the Northeast are putting stickers on
58:07buses with PT (Workers' Party)
58:08propaganda and they couldn't leave the
58:10garage. First absurd thing, okay?
58:12Because they couldn't do that. The
58:14buses stayed there because they were
58:15doing electoral propaganda that they
58:16weren't allowed to do. Isn't this
58:18somehow an electoral crime? So then
58:19they blocked the buses. At 9:30 there's
58:22already a scripted, edited video with
58:24several artists saying that this was an
58:26electoral crime. An hour and a half
58:30after the PT supporters put the
58:31stickers on the bus, they are blocked,
58:32the artists already have a video ready.
58:37I'll show it here. It's this video. Pay
58:40attention.
58:41>> This is a complaint of electoral crime
58:43in São Paulo and Bahia.
58:45>> The bus fleets in Salvador and São
58:47Paulo were reduced.
58:48>> Ricardo Nunes, mayor of São Paulo, and
58:50Bruno Reis, mayor of Salvador. It's a
58:52disgrace.
58:53>> It's a disgrace. It's absurd, people,
58:55what's happening with the buses in this
58:56second round.
58:58>> Reducing the fleet and hindering access
59:00to the polls. Do
59:02>> you really want to believe that they
59:04made this assembled, edited video, with
59:06a bunch of celebrities, with a bunch of
59:07influencers, with a ready-made script
59:09for each one to do a... "They put all
59:11that together, and they finished it all
59:13in an hour and a half? An hour and a
59:16half, considering they had the
59:17information the exact moment the whole
59:19thing started and they immediately
59:21began production, got everything ready,
59:23and launched it. This thing was already
59:26done, man. Some part of this was
59:28already ready. So, this timeline is
59:33pretty weird, isn't it? Pretty weird.
59:35Some of this was planned, orchestrated.
59:39Then they create all this commotion,
59:40they have to start early because after
59:42all, they have the whole day, and they
59:44grab the voters with emotional appeal,
59:45right, to try to get more votes. And
59:48then 5: 1, having practically the whole
59:50day to make a decision. 5 to 1, one
59:53minute after the ballot boxes should
59:55have been sealed to start the voting,
59:58Zanin orders the election time to be
1:00:00extended. The whole country had already
1:00:02stopped, but magically the polling
1:00:04stations in the Northeast were still
1:00:05open. Doesn't it seem like they knew
1:00:07something? Oh, but there were few votes
1:00:10. It was 2 hours with..." The ballot
1:00:12boxes were at the mercy of anyone who
1:00:14wanted to do anything. And then, after
1:00:17that, we have the most atypical
1:00:19election, breaking several
1:00:21unprecedented records in the entire
1:00:23history of Brazil, right? Since we
1:00:25started elections with these ballot
1:00:27boxes. This was such a bizarre mess
1:00:32that's why I said, look, maybe the only
1:00:34thing that gives grounds for annulment
1:00:36is this farce. They say, uh, the first
1:00:39theory is that maybe they already knew
1:00:41they were going to lose and did this so
1:00:43they could request annulment. Or they
1:00:47did it because they needed this to win
1:00:48by cheating, right? Who knows. But this
1:00:52is completely absurd. Look, Mônica
1:00:54Berga.
1:00:54>> Mônica, if you have important
1:00:55information,
1:00:56>> look, I'm with a minister, I'm not
1:00:58going to say who, I'm here live on the
1:01:01radio talking here. You'll hear it. I'm
1:01:04live, but I'm not going to mention any
1:01:06minister's name here, but a source of
1:01:08mine at the Superior Electoral Court is
1:01:10explaining the following: it's more or
1:01:11less about...490,000 ballot boxes, the
1:01:13ballot boxes don't communicate. So what
1:01:15would have to happen now? The ballot
1:01:17boxes have to be reprogrammed to work
1:01:20beyond 5 PM.
1:01:22>> 400. Did you understand that Zanin's
1:01:25maneuver forced a reprogramming of
1:01:28490,000 ballot boxes? Here it is. Let
1:01:33me put on my tinfoil hat. I always
1:01:36thought that the PT's fraud was
1:01:39localized. In general, my theory is
1:01:43that they rigged the ballot boxes in
1:01:45the Northeast a lot because they
1:01:46control everything there, man. They
1:01:49rule the Northeast, they have dealings
1:01:51with organized crime that controls the
1:01:53Northeast. Am I really supposed to
1:01:56think it's hard for the PT to reach the
1:01:57polls? Oh, but the ballot box is
1:01:59offline. I'm really supposed to think
1:02:01it's difficult for the PT to access a
1:02:03ballot box in the Northeast, put a pen
1:02:04drive in there and do whatever they
1:02:06want. That's why they always win
1:02:07elections. Sometimes the Northeast
1:02:09doesn't even vote as badly as we think.
1:02:11It's just that every ballot box there
1:02:13is rigged, as They control the entire
1:02:14region. That was a theory I had. But
1:02:17this time, if the fraud clearly
1:02:19happened, and I believe it did, it was
1:02:21widespread because it was kind of
1:02:23organic, or rather, not organic, right?
1:02:26It was anything but organic; it was
1:02:28homogeneous. It grew in all states.
1:02:31That's what I meant. It grew, not
1:02:33identically, but systematically in all
1:02:36states. So, it seems more widespread.
1:02:42And then we have a completely atypical,
1:02:44unprecedented event that paralyzes the
1:02:47elections for 2 hours and causes
1:02:49490,000 ballot boxes to be reprogrammed
1:02:52. Ballot boxes that were already sealed
1:02:55, closed, that there was nothing more
1:02:57to be done, but they had to do
1:02:59something to extend the election
1:03:00deadline. And there's something else
1:03:02strange, right? Flávio Bolsonaro
1:03:07claims that the PL poll watchers were
1:03:08expelled from the secure room from the
1:03:10moment they decided to extend the
1:03:12elections by 2 hours. This is Flávio
1:03:15Bolsonaro speaking. That's true, isn't
1:03:18it? I don't know, but something really
1:03:22strange happened in that election,
1:03:23right? 5 and one Zanin determines. It's
1:03:28absurd. Mônica Bérgamo says it's a
1:03:31huge mess because 490,000 ballot boxes
1:03:33will need to be reprogrammed. Mônica
1:03:36Bérgamo, right? It's not some
1:03:37far-right trick, they have to
1:03:39>> be reopened, it has to be done one by
1:03:41one. You can't just press a button in
1:03:43Brasília and reprogram them all,
1:03:44>> but you have to work on each one. The
1:03:47poll workers do that. Each poll worker
1:03:48does it. Isn't that right? My source is
1:03:50saying
1:03:50>> that. The poll worker does it, the poll
1:03:52worker works on it. A bunch of poll
1:03:54workers celebrating Lula's victory and
1:04:00the PL poll watchers were kept away
1:04:02during the two hours when all this
1:04:03happened.
1:04:04>> They say each poll worker will have to
1:04:05do it. That's right, isn't it? I'm sure
1:04:07.
1:04:07>> Mônica is talking about it. And then,
1:04:10after all these unprecedented things...
1:04:12Bizarre, completely atypical, things
1:04:14that have never happened before and are
1:04:17very suspicious, an electoral miracle
1:04:19happens and I have to believe that
1:04:22everything is clean. Am I proving to
1:04:24you that it was rigged? No, no, I don't
1:04:26have proof, right? Go ahead and report
1:04:28it. I don't have proof. I have my
1:04:31conviction. I'm sure it was. And I
1:04:36think you are too. I think that whoever
1:04:39I've already repeated here, right? I, I
1:04:41, I can't believe that someone looks at
1:04:43all this and thinks: "No, it's normal
1:04:45and there's a very reasonable
1:04:46explanation for it.""Well, that's why I
1:04:48wrote, 'Look, the first act of this new
1:04:50congress needs to be the replacement of
1:04:52the 100%electronic voting machines that
1:04:54are only used with a button for a
1:04:56decent machine that allows for physical
1:04:58auditing, like in all other normal
1:05:00countries in the world. It's the bare
1:05:02minimum. You need to know who you're
1:05:04voting for and then you need a ballot
1:05:06that you can tap and check, which at
1:05:07the very least will make the process
1:05:09more difficult, right? Maybe they'll
1:05:11need more than two hours. Man, the
1:05:14feeling I have now is that 2018 was
1:05:17something completely unexpected. They
1:05:19didn't think it would be like that.
1:05:21They didn't have control over
1:05:22everything because Temer was in power
1:05:24at that time. And a tragedy happened.
1:05:28From then on, everything was done
1:05:29illegally, possibly before, after. And
1:05:32so the feeling I have is, no matter
1:05:34what happens, as long as these are our
1:05:36voting machines, we'll never elect a
1:05:38president again. You can't trust them.
1:05:43So, uh, then we can already, we can
1:05:46already." Okay, let's go ahead and do a
1:05:49bit of analysis, okay? Uh, pessimistic
1:05:54and optimistic. I think I'll have to do
1:05:56a bit of a mix this time because
1:05:58everything's a mess, right? Let's go.
1:06:02Uh, starting with the more optimistic
1:06:07line, I could say that we didn't lose
1:06:09the election. We tied the election
1:06:12because we lost the main executive
1:06:14position, but we won the governorships,
1:06:17we won the Senate, we won the Chamber
1:06:19of Deputies. So the legislature is
1:06:23supposedly ours. We have several
1:06:27governors who might put a brake on the
1:06:29disasters that the PT could cause,
1:06:31especially regarding security, but they
1:06:33have the executive and the legislature.
1:06:37From there, a lot can happen, right?
1:06:40There's always the possibility of
1:06:42corruption for the PT to find a way to
1:06:44buy the legislature, because despite
1:06:46having the majority, there are many
1:06:47there who could be opportunistic, who
1:06:49could end up switching sides. The
1:06:51centrão usually aligns itself with
1:06:53whoever is in power. Now for the more
1:06:55pessimistic analysis, right? The only
1:06:57power we have, we He loses because he
1:06:59buys. Maybe. Now, if that's not the
1:07:03case, if we really managed to put
1:07:05together a more ideological bloc and if
1:07:07, in addition to that, there's such a
1:07:09great erosion of the PT that the system
1:07:11no longer wants it there—which is
1:07:13something that also happens eventually
1:07:15—and since everything is a mess and
1:07:17this mess harms everyone, including the
1:07:19richest people who control the system,
1:07:21it's possible that only the hand
1:07:23remains. We've seen a movement to let
1:07:25go of Lula and Xandão's hand, right?
1:07:28If they lose media power, in theory the
1:07:32centrão will join forces with us and
1:07:34everyone will be in the opposition. In
1:07:37this scenario, which is the most
1:07:39optimistic of all, we still have the
1:07:41possibility of impeaching Supreme Court
1:07:43justices, even without having the
1:07:45leader of the executive branch.
1:07:47Obviously, it was a desperate maneuver,
1:07:49because Xandão and Lula need to
1:07:50protect each other. Obviously, they're
1:07:54going to come after those in the
1:07:55Bolsonaro camp. Lula was already
1:07:58promising, Lula was already speaking
1:07:59with great certainty that he He would
1:08:01perform an impossible electoral miracle
1:08:02, and when he did, he would already
1:08:04have everything ready to arrest Flávio
1:08:05. So here's another prediction, okay?
1:08:10Because I'm seeing the PT supporters
1:08:12saying, "Oh, Bolsonaro's movement is
1:08:13over," the MBL people saying, "
1:08:15Bolsonarism is over." For me, that's
1:08:17basically impossible in this scenario,
1:08:19okay? Even in the pessimistic or
1:08:21optimistic scenario, four more years of
1:08:23Lula will only make Bolsonaro's
1:08:25movement grow even more. Possibly, with
1:08:28these elections, it didn't grow enough
1:08:30to elect a president, because it will
1:08:32never happen. "Oh, if it were Tarcis,
1:08:34it doesn't matter, man." You really
1:08:37have to believe that there was nothing
1:08:38suspicious in this election. They would
1:08:40have stolen from anyone. It was a
1:08:41bizarre difference there, for sure it
1:08:42was a lot of votes. I would guess that
1:08:45without the PT's shady dealings,
1:08:47Flávio must have gotten at least 60%.
1:08:52So I don't think it has anything to do
1:08:54with it being because of the last name,
1:08:55or because Flávio is this or that, or
1:08:57because Lula's campaign was better,
1:08:59because...I don't think so. Lula's
1:09:01campaign was a mess. The transition
1:09:03from the first to the second round was
1:09:05terrible for Lula. He may have bought a
1:09:07lot of votes, but nothing justifies
1:09:09this absurd and mathematically
1:09:10inexplicable difference that we saw. So
1:09:14, to elect the president, we need to
1:09:17change the voting system. And then, of
1:09:19course, if we try to pass something
1:09:20with the strength we have today in
1:09:21Congress, the Supreme Court will try to
1:09:23block it. That's a loss of power.
1:09:25Basically, the legislature will have to
1:09:27use all the power it has been given to
1:09:30find a way to confront this
1:09:31mega-powerful judiciary, perhaps using
1:09:34the power of the media and some
1:09:36external agents that could be favorable
1:09:38. It's not a positive scenario, it's
1:09:40not a scenario that's easy to be
1:09:42optimistic about, right? Ah, I presume
1:09:44that the right wing is growing because,
1:09:46as I've said in other videos, it's
1:09:48easier to be in opposition than in
1:09:49government, especially for gaining
1:09:51political capital. Opposition only
1:09:53attacks. It's easier to attack than to
1:09:55do. So, the more you stay in the
1:09:59opposition position, the more There's
1:10:01room to fight and grow politically.
1:10:05That was even MBL's strategy. But they
1:10:07were foolish because they didn't
1:10:08realize they were actually closing
1:10:10doors to any kind of voter. So they
1:10:12closed the space for their own growth,
1:10:14right? But it's a strategy used in many
1:10:17places. We've even seen it happen in
1:10:20the United States. I always say the
1:10:22United States is a good barometer,
1:10:24right? This time there's a difference,
1:10:26because there Trump returned and here
1:10:30it's Flávio, Bolsonaro, who has a
1:10:32legacy, Bolsonaro didn't return. But
1:10:36what we see in the United States is
1:10:38that when Trump won the first time, he
1:10:40had a certain strength in the
1:10:42presidency, he was heavily attacked, he
1:10:44was weakened. When he became the
1:10:48opposition, he grew even more, because
1:10:50now he was the one attacking, right?
1:10:53And the Democrats were the ones doing
1:10:54the wrong things, and Trump came back
1:10:56even stronger. Now that Trump is in
1:10:58power, the Democrats are back in the
1:11:00opposition and the Democrats are
1:11:01growing again. That's why the States...
1:11:03The United States has this alternation
1:11:05of power that works for them. The issue
1:11:06is that here it's not just about how
1:11:08much we trust our alternation of power,
1:11:10which keeps the same shitty party
1:11:12robbing the public coffers and making a
1:11:14mess of the whole country, but which
1:11:15remains hegemonic for two decades, more
1:11:17than two decades. Look how many years
1:11:19of PT messing things up we have here.
1:11:22Because I think that here, in our
1:11:26system, if they have power in their
1:11:29hands and manage to use it to their
1:11:30advantage, there's nothing we can do.
1:11:31In the United States, they can increase
1:11:33oversight to prevent fraud. Not here.
1:11:36Here it seems impossible. Not with the
1:11:39system the way it is. But with another
1:11:434 years of Lula making a lot of
1:11:45mistakes, the tendency is for
1:11:47Bolsonarism to grow even more. And yes,
1:11:50Bolsonarism, because it's what's being
1:11:53wronged, right? There will be the
1:11:54feeling that it was another strange,
1:11:56stolen, unfair election. I know they
1:11:59will try; some groups may try, along
1:12:01the way, to occupy This space belongs
1:12:04to Bolsonarism. But, as Bolsonarism
1:12:06tends to grow more and is the most
1:12:08popular and strongest movement in
1:12:09Brazil today, undeniably because it
1:12:11seems that the second round annulled
1:12:13what happened a few weeks ago in the
1:12:15first round. It didn't annul it, it was
1:12:17a bizarre victory for Bolsonarism, a
1:12:19bizarre demonstration of strength. And
1:12:22I say this as analysis, not as a
1:12:23wishful thinking, because I've said it
1:12:25several times, I would prefer a better
1:12:26right wing than the Bolsonarist right
1:12:28wing. I would prefer a right wing that
1:12:31was much more, well, much more red pill
1:12:33, much more aggressive, much more
1:12:35grounded, much more grounded in ideas.
1:12:39I would prefer that, I think
1:12:41Bolsonarism is too weak. So, uh, it's
1:12:44not out of wishful thinking, it's
1:12:46because of what I see happening:
1:12:48Trumpism continues to be very strong.
1:12:51Even with some names appearing, like R
1:12:53the Sentes, right, in Florida, Trump
1:12:56continued to be the main one and, now
1:12:58that he's in power, he's been somewhat
1:13:01weakened. I think Bolsonarism had more
1:13:04The chances of shrinking if Flávio
1:13:06wins the election are slim, because
1:13:08Lula's fiscal bomb will explode in his
1:13:10lap, and the opposition will attack him
1:13:12day and night to defuse it, which they
1:13:14don't always do. And we know that the
1:13:16left-wing opposition, besides
1:13:17everything else, is incredibly
1:13:18dishonest, and it doesn't matter, right
1:13:19? Whatever they have to use, they will
1:13:20use. Now that Lula is there to hold
1:13:24onto this fiscal bomb, with all the
1:13:26disapproval he already has in his last
1:13:28year in office, the tendency is for the
1:13:31Bolsonaro opposition to make
1:13:32Bolsonarism grow even more since 2018,
1:13:34with each election, no, each
1:13:36presidential election, right? In 2020
1:13:40and it was 2018, so Bolsonarism grew in
1:13:442020. It grew more in 2022, more in
1:13:472024, and even more in 2026. So I think
1:13:50that by 2028 Bolsonarism will be even
1:13:54bigger. And that's where I don't know
1:13:58if they will make the calculation that
1:14:01it's advantageous to let the...Lula is
1:14:04either weakening himself to grow as the
1:14:07opposition, or they're going to try to
1:14:09solve this mess right away and impeach
1:14:12Lula to oust the Supreme Court justices
1:14:15, not with Lula's nomination, but with
1:14:17Alckmin's, right? Let Alckmin try to
1:14:21fix things a bit and perhaps then in
1:14:242020 or 2030, we could attempt to put
1:14:27someone who is truly law-abiding in the
1:14:30place that Alckmin currently occupies.
1:14:34I think both things could happen. I had
1:14:36already tried to predict an impeachment
1:14:38in the previous cycle; the only mistake
1:14:40I made was predicting this impeachment.
1:14:43But now impeachment is easier because
1:14:45it simply requires that the legislature
1:14:46acts in order to successfully remove
1:14:48the president from office. Now the
1:14:50right wing has the legislature, enough
1:14:51to put a president in both the Chamber
1:14:53and the Senate and to schedule
1:14:54impeachment of ministers and the
1:14:56president. So there's viability for
1:14:58this impeachment. Lula will commit a
1:15:00crime, right? So there will be
1:15:02something to use to impeach him. It
1:15:05will depend on the will of the agents
1:15:07to see if this will be the best course
1:15:10of action, because in the same way it's
1:15:12possible to force Lula to appoint
1:15:14ministers who aren't other Flávio
1:15:15Dinos, because the right wing has
1:15:17already blocked the appointment of one
1:15:19of Lula's ministers in the current
1:15:21Senate composition. So, it's possible
1:15:26that the right wing will block any
1:15:27appointment by Lula that isn't truly
1:15:29neutral. And, it's not that Alckmin
1:15:33would do a better job, let's not forget
1:15:34, Xandão was appointed by Temer. So
1:15:39Alckmin isn't a guarantee that he won't
1:15:41put the most despicable person on the
1:15:42Supreme Court there. Another Xandão
1:15:46could come along, start one way and
1:15:47then change, right? It's difficult to
1:15:49predict. But if you start to pressure
1:15:51Supreme Court ministers, at least you
1:15:52put a brake on them. You show that they
1:15:54aren't untouchable, right? So, we have
1:15:58some things, there's water to flow
1:16:00under the bridge, some things need to
1:16:01happen. I think it's very difficult to
1:16:03reverse the situation, okay? I don't
1:16:07know what the climate will be like now.
1:16:09Mobilization, because there's all the
1:16:10history of January 8th, right? Which I
1:16:13think we've lived through enough to see
1:16:15that trying to talk about, I don't know
1:16:17, asking for help...I think it's
1:16:19impossible to reach that same point,
1:16:21because nobody has confidence or even
1:16:23sympathy for the armed forces anymore,
1:16:25right? The armed forces are there,
1:16:28Lula's armed forces, are they going to
1:16:29do something? Obviously, I think even
1:16:31the group that wanted the military coup
1:16:33probably isn't counting on it anymore.
1:16:36So I think something like January 8th
1:16:38shouldn't happen again. There might be
1:16:40totally peaceful demonstrations, simply
1:16:42as a protest to show, you know, and
1:16:44raise our voices. At the same time, it
1:16:48might not happen, because there's still
1:16:49the trauma, which is the reason they
1:16:51did everything on January 8th, to end
1:16:52the popular mobilization. I have no
1:16:55idea how it will happen. And anyway, I
1:16:57just hope that this time the right wing
1:16:58will be more responsible so as to give
1:17:00less ammunition to the left to use. But
1:17:03I'll be honest, I think the situation
1:17:04is...So different today compared to 4
1:17:06years ago, because the Supreme Court is
1:17:07already very worn down. The Banco
1:17:10Master case was devastating. The press
1:17:11let go of Xandão's hand. He was
1:17:13desperate. Lula was desperate. They
1:17:14used everything they had. They
1:17:17stretched the rope to the limit to win
1:17:18this election against Lula, because the
1:17:20two need to stay together. Either they
1:17:22die embracing or hold on tight
1:17:25embracing. But they used everything
1:17:27they had. From now on they will try to
1:17:30go on the offensive, because what they
1:17:32have to try to stop what I believe is
1:17:34an obvious advance of Bolsonarism. And
1:17:37I think the militants may even think
1:17:39that Bolsonarism is over simply because
1:17:41Flávio didn't win this election, even
1:17:43though the first round was
1:17:45ultra-Bolsonarist. But the leaders may
1:17:47not underestimate him again. So it
1:17:49seems to me that they will go after
1:17:50Flávio, right? Eduardo and his father
1:17:53are already out of the scheme and they
1:17:55will try to do what dictatorships do,
1:17:58right, to perpetuate themselves in
1:18:00power after...Everything goes wrong.
1:18:03They persecute every political
1:18:04adversary, every political opponent,
1:18:05and commit election fraud, which they
1:18:07apparently already manage to do. So,
1:18:08probably a major struggle that the
1:18:10right wing will have to wage will be to
1:18:11change our electoral system. It will be
1:18:13difficult because with Lula and the
1:18:15Supreme Court, the way things are, they
1:18:16will try to block it in every way,
1:18:18right? But we have to try to use this
1:18:21composition of the legislature for
1:18:24something. So it's difficult, it will
1:18:28be four complicated years. I really
1:18:30think that economically, especially if
1:18:32Lula stays for the full four years, it
1:18:34has everything to be worse than Dilma's
1:18:36third term, because Lula made a lot of
1:18:39economic mistakes that haven't even had
1:18:41time to explode yet, and he just got
1:18:43re-elected and the economy is already
1:18:45shattered. He will need to undo a lot
1:18:47of mess, right? A lot of things that
1:18:51are simply unsustainable. The country's
1:18:53economy is already broken, he passed
1:18:55the 61 scale thing, and many weapons he
1:18:57had to use, he won't have anymore,
1:18:59right? The left burned out because they
1:19:01did everything to guarantee this
1:19:03presidency. So, From now on, it's four
1:19:07years of tightening our grip, trying to
1:19:10survive this country's economic
1:19:12disaster, waging fierce opposition, and
1:19:15trying to use what we built in the
1:19:17Legislature to hold things together, to
1:19:20prevent, you know, any much more
1:19:22serious mess that Lula might want to
1:19:24make to try and control their powers,
1:19:27to stop them from continuing to advance
1:19:29recklessly, hoping that the right wing
1:19:34will be a little more hardened, and
1:19:37much less permissive. But that's it, my
1:19:40friends. I think we were cheated, I
1:19:43think the future isn't difficult, it's
1:19:46very optimistic at this point. You can
1:19:50see, you know, the way the bomb is
1:19:51going to explode in Lula's lap, he
1:19:53won't be able to run again. The left
1:19:55has no successor. The right, possibly
1:19:59as the opposition, will strengthen even
1:20:02more. And maybe we can, with the
1:20:05Legislature, already...almost balance
1:20:07things out. Because it was...it's not
1:20:10just that we have the Legislature; we
1:20:12created an imposing, very strong
1:20:13Legislature, and the system apparently
1:20:15...They're loosening their grip a bit,
1:20:17because Lula is a really serious
1:20:19disaster. Some people are showing,
1:20:22through reactions from the extreme
1:20:23press, that they didn't like Lula's
1:20:25victory. They were actually much more
1:20:28accustomed to the idea of Flávio [
1:20:29Flávio] because it seemed like, at
1:20:31least for the time being, it would be
1:20:32good. Let's see what happens with the
1:20:35Bets, for example, right? That was
1:20:37clearly a hard blow to the media, which
1:20:39was furious with Lula. Will he maintain
1:20:41this, will he backtrack? Because a lot
1:20:43of what he did just to win the election
1:20:45, he will probably, possibly, end up
1:20:46undoing when he sees that he can't
1:20:48maintain it, right? But that's it, pay
1:20:52our taxes and follow the developments,
1:20:57right? If anything changes, if anything
1:21:00happens that radically changes all this
1:21:02, obviously I'll come back here for
1:21:03more analysis and updates on what I'm
1:21:05seeing. And there's something else I've
1:21:10set aside. It's nothing major, it will
1:21:12change a lot from what I've already
1:21:14said, but there are people talking
1:21:15about the fear campaign that the PT [
1:21:17Workers' Party]...That, you know, may
1:21:19have impacted that difference in votes.
1:21:22I think this isn't enough, but it's
1:21:24interesting because in this fear
1:21:26campaign where he was promising that
1:21:27Flávio would cut aid to everything,
1:21:29that the cuts would be in essential
1:21:31services that the population loves, uh,
1:21:33it's just fake news, right? Just more
1:21:36hypocrisy. The left talks so much about
1:21:38how the right only wins with fake news.
1:21:39The left was just fake news this entire
1:21:41election. Janones should be arrested
1:21:44because he clearly accused, made an
1:21:45indirect accusation, but clearly made
1:21:46an accusation that Flávio was a PDF (a
1:21:48derogatory term for a corrupt
1:21:49politician) based on a video of some
1:21:50old guy who has nothing to do with him.
1:21:53A complete, it's not an electoral crime
1:21:55, that's a crime of false accusation,
1:21:56which should be as serious as the crime
1:21:58the person is accusing him of. Janones
1:22:01should already be in jail, right? This
1:22:03guy is absurd and will probably still
1:22:05get even more important positions
1:22:06because of the drunkard. This guy
1:22:08should be working, pulling some strings
1:22:09to put him in jail because he's just
1:22:11another one. Big bandit. And here, just
1:22:14to show you all that Trump's lawyer
1:22:16made another comment, telling the
1:22:18entire world about what exactly has
1:22:19happened here today. So this is also
1:22:21going to become global news, okay?
1:22:24World news, the issue of Zanin
1:22:25interfering in the elections, and Elon
1:22:27Musk shared it. So, Elon Musk, once
1:22:29again, taking a look at what's
1:22:31happening in Brazil and is astonished.
1:22:33And this will certainly go around the
1:22:34world, okay? I've already seen several
1:22:37international figures commenting on the
1:22:39absurdity of what's happening in Brazil
1:22:42, which was this decision by Zanin,
1:22:44directly interfering in our electoral
1:22:46system. And man, I had actually
1:22:49selected something here to wrap up the
1:22:52video. It wasn't supposed to be the
1:22:54open profile. What's here? Now I forgot
1:23:01what it was. Well, it'll stay like this
1:23:04. So, we'll close with Trump because my
1:23:06analysis is already quite long, right?
1:23:11Then there will be a bunch of PT
1:23:12supporters and MBL sheep who won't
1:23:14watch anything and will simply say: "Oh
1:23:16, an hour and a half crying doing an
1:23:17analysis." That's it, right? It's
1:23:21crying because I think it was rigged,
1:23:22yes. I think it was rigged, right?
1:23:24Right? Yeah, it's loser's whining,
1:23:25thinking it was rigged. I've thought
1:23:27that for a while now. And I think our
1:23:28voting system is crap. And I think,
1:23:30well, everyone's said that at some
1:23:32point, but now they can't because it
1:23:34favors them, right? So that's it. Thank
1:23:39you very much for watching, my dears. I
1:23:41know it's not the video we wanted, but
1:23:44it's what we have for today, right?
1:23:49Let's resist as much as we can to take
1:23:55advantage of what we did well in these
1:23:56elections and try to reverse some
1:23:58really bad things we have in this
1:23:59country and make lemonade out of lemons
1:24:01, right? As much as possible. Okay?
1:24:05Thanks, see you in the next video.
1:24:08Everything's a mess and you ask what
1:24:10happened. I can only answer that I was
1:24:14never the one to blame here, but at
1:24:19least love won.

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