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El súperciclo del cobre será brutal — Transcript

by Hector Chamizo · 2,675 words · 400 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Prepare for takeoff. There are many
0:02long-term arguments that could pave a
0:05path to the moon for an asset we've
0:07been talking about on the channel for a
0:10long time: copper. But it's not just
0:14copper; businesses linked to it could
0:17also experience a major rally if this
0:19thesis holds true. What are the
0:23fundamentals behind all of this? And if
0:26it really is about to explode, I'm
0:28going to commit to one specific company
0:30that I also talked about in my premium
0:32newsletter. There's a special promotion
0:34these days that you have in the video
0:36description and in the pinned comment,
0:38with the link for you to take advantage
0:39of it right now; it's only active for a
0:41few days, so you know, it's down there.
0:44But as I say, let’s jump straight
0:46into this thesis, into copper, all the
0:48charts, and everything else we’re
0:51going to see next. I’m not biased,
0:58though I am like a broken record
1:00because I’ve been analyzing copper
1:02and its long-term explosion theory for
1:05more than half a year. A theory that
1:09has solidified over the months, and a
1:11theory that also strengthens companies
1:13dedicated to copper mining. But of
1:17course, what are those fundamentals
1:18that could be triggered over these next
1:20few years? There are new charts that
1:23have come to light and, of course, the
1:26thesis that reinforces a specific miner
1:28I have in my portfolio and will talk
1:30about later, which, by the way, I’ve
1:32discussed in depth in a piece I’ll
1:34review with you soon. But that said,
1:38there are solid fundamentals suggesting
1:41that this movement has only just begun,
1:43looking toward 2030 and 2040.
1:47Positioning yourself now for the very
1:50long term can be truly spectacular,
1:52focusing on this specific metal and
1:54everything derived from it. Stay for
1:57this video, it’s going to be very
1:58interesting for you. But first, to
1:59support this analysis—now more than
2:01ever because YouTube's algorithms have
2:03changed—leave a like to support
2:05content creation. And of course,
2:07subscribe to the channel, hit the
2:09notification bell, and comment if you
2:11think copper is interesting; if you
2:13want me to analyze other metals or
2:15other industries, let me know in the
2:17comments, as I take that into account.
2:19Well, it's time to update this thesis
2:22and theory on where we are and where we
2:25are headed. There are several charts
2:29pointing to the direction the price
2:30could take in the long term, and it’s
2:32better to show them directly on screen.
2:35The first one is as follows. Look at
2:38the forecasts regarding copper demand
2:41between now and 2050. The volume of
2:46tons demanded between now and 2050 is
2:49expected to go straight to the moon. Do
2:53you see how brutal that is? We are at
2:56this point right now, and look at the
2:58entire distance we have to cover. In
3:02previous videos on the channel, we
3:04mentioned there was a spectacular
3:05bottleneck in copper. We have published
3:08many videos here, taking a positive
3:10stance on this metal. And we were
3:14precisely talking about stagnant supply
3:16and ever-increasing demand, as you see
3:19in this chart. And that, translated
3:22into plain English, means: lower supply
3:24, higher demand, pushing prices upward
3:27due to the law of supply and demand.
3:30Knowing that copper will be very
3:32volatile, that it will have bumps in
3:34the road, but that these bumps, if
3:36nothing changes, could be investment
3:39opportunities, not only in the resource
3:41itself (which they are), but also in
3:44companies related to it. But of course,
3:47the next question we can all ask
3:49ourselves is where that copper demand
3:51will be needed. We have to analyze
3:53everything in detail because, hey,
3:55maybe the AI forecasts will collapse.
3:57It won't all be artificial intelligence
3:59. Artificial intelligence is a plus for
4:01that copper demand, but above all, do
4:03you know where the main demand for
4:04copper comes from? It’s not just the
4:08artificial intelligence part, which
4:11will be scalable; as you can see in the
4:14next chart, the demand dedicated to the
4:17energy transition from 2025 to 2040
4:19won't double, but it will come very
4:22close to doubling. In the case of what
4:26is destined for artificial intelligence
4:28, defense, and data centers, it will
4:29double, as you can see here, but it is
4:31the smaller copper demand. The main one
4:35is general economic activity, which
4:37will follow an upward trend, as we have
4:39seen in other years, but the parts
4:41linked to energy transition, data
4:43centers, and defense will explode quite
4:45strongly. That's why on Wall Street
4:48they say, "Get ready for the rocket,
4:50thinking long-term." But we are going
4:52beyond this brutal demand that is
4:54needed. If we look back to 1900—and
4:56this chart from Capital Group seemed
4:59quite interesting regarding global
5:02copper demand—we see that since 1900,
5:05global copper consumption has expanded
5:07from less than 1 million tons to 28.4
5:10million tons today. And what does that
5:13global projection show? That this
5:15figure reaches 42.3 by 2040 and 53 by
5:192050. Do you know what all this
5:23represents? We need to mine as much
5:26copper in these years as in all of
5:29human history. It’s outrageous. And
5:33we are talking about China and APAC
5:36alone representing 60%of this demand
5:38growth. Driven also by the energy
5:41transition, as we say, and by the
5:43development of data centers. We have a
5:46fundamental theory before our eyes that
5:48I think is incredible and will be
5:50constantly tested, because when copper
5:52is seen falling 30 or 35%, there will
5:54be a lot of volatility associated with
5:56the price. There will be those who say,
5:59"This is over." Although in an economic
6:01recession, copper may plummet more than
6:0450%. And we will hear voices saying, "
6:07This is over, the thesis makes no sense
6:09." But it happens like with the stock
6:12market and when strong rallies activate
6:15, those drops do not exempt the
6:17long-term rally from continuing because
6:19there is a fundamental base that, if it
6:22doesn't go off track, is very strong
6:24for the asset itself, at least for the
6:27coming years. You always have to be
6:31open to the possibility that this might
6:33not pan out, but the cards we have on
6:35the table are quite clear. So, the next
6:40question, knowing all this context we
6:42have and that there is more than enough
6:45foundation to think there are chances
6:48of trending upward, how can it affect
6:50the mining business? And more
6:53specifically, how are copper miners
6:56trading right now in the markets? Are
6:58they a great opportunity? Well, as you
7:02can see in the following chart, in
7:05comparative terms with the S&P 500, we
7:08see copper miners starting to test key
7:11ceiling levels, as we saw in 2015, 2016
7:15, 2021, 2024, and now it seems the
7:18possibility of rebounding upwards is
7:21starting to take hold, to reach levels
7:24not seen since 2009. 2010 the
7:30possibility of starting to truly trend
7:32upwards, but this is not the only chart
7:34that reflects this from a technical
7:36point of view, because this is pricing
7:39on the technical level. On the other
7:43hand, there is the longer-term part and
7:47the part from 2024 to the present in
7:502026. What are copper miners
7:53technically plotting? Well, for example
7:56, copper versus copper miners that are
7:59lagging behind. Look at what a
8:02wonderful cup and handle pattern they
8:04are tracing. If this technical pattern
8:08is completed, there is a possibility of
8:10quite dizzying gains. Obviously, that
8:13pattern could reverse and fail to
8:15complete, but all roads, as we say here
8:18in Spain, lead to Rome. Well, there is
8:21this context that is pushing us quite
8:24clearly toward this asset class, and
8:27also, as Tabi Costa published, copper
8:31miners are at a key resistance level,
8:34just as it eventually solidified back
8:38in 2025. They are about to break
8:42through and surge upward. These are
8:45fundamental and technical factors to
8:47keep in mind, but you will also ask
8:49yourselves, what are their fundamentals
8:51? What is behind it? And which miners
8:54should one look at? We need to dig
8:55deeper into this, Hector, because it is
8:57not very clear to me. I see the copper
8:59thesis is very clear, the technical
9:00thesis for the miners as well, but the
9:02fundamental thesis, what is it
9:04presenting to us? Well, let me recap
9:07because I have been talking to you
9:09about this very thesis in my premium
9:11newsletter for over half a year, fully
9:13committing myself, discussing the
9:15entire fundamental thesis, the
9:17technical side, and which miners might
9:19be the most attractive. You only need
9:22to look at the post from, as you can
9:25see here, April 9, 2026, about whether
9:27it was more interesting to buy into
9:30copper miners. And I think it is time
9:33to talk about what was commented on
9:35there and the update, given the current
9:37moment. Who would benefit at that time
9:40from the copper rally? Perfect. But,
9:42where are we now to see if we can
9:44benefit even further? You have all of
9:46this in more detail in that post. Which
9:49, by the way, right now you have a
9:51discount for the annual plan in the
9:53video description and the pinned
9:55comment, so you can take advantage of
9:56these advanced theses from the most
9:58exclusive investment bank reports. You
10:01will always receive everything in your
10:03email. So take advantage of all this,
10:06and now, in fact, you are going to see
10:08what kind of information is published
10:09within this space. Well, fundamentally,
10:13what do the miners have? Well, the
10:15miners, as we published there, have a
10:18gross profit margin at record levels. A
10:22gross margin that is above the
10:24financial sector and technology, which
10:26are the next highest, but the mining
10:29industry has margins exceeding 30%.
10:34This is absolute madness and it tells
10:36us that with this current cycle, they
10:39are going to make a really significant
10:41amount of money. And keep in mind that
10:44these margins were studied based on
10:46prices from previous quarters. they
10:48need to be updated to the current
10:51quarters; that scenario that may come
10:53from this moment on must be discounted.
10:56Therefore, the risk-reward ratio can be
10:58worth it. Obviously, everything
11:01published and commented on this channel
11:03is not investment advice; it is simply
11:05information, analysis, and my personal
11:06view, but I think we are at that
11:08specific point. And for example, in the
11:11case of gold and silver miners, they
11:13are carrying out buybacks. We already
11:18saw, for example, in the technology
11:20sector what share buybacks meant. You
11:22remove shares from circulation, demand
11:24increases, and the price of these
11:26shares in the stock markets rises. In
11:29the case of copper miners, let's see if
11:32they also follow in the footsteps of
11:34their older sisters in silver and gold,
11:36but there are fundamental aspects that
11:39lead us to think they will make more
11:41money in this context. And precisely my
11:45latest thesis update, which I published
11:48just a few days ago, analyzes this in
11:50much greater detail. You see it here,
11:54the copper miner thesis, and it was
11:56time to talk about the thesis, the
11:57update, and all the details of how I
11:59see things, which we are going to
12:01discuss right now. The technical side,
12:03what we talked about earlier, right?
12:06All this part with the copper demand
12:08booming, the technical side pointing
12:11upward, and the thesis update with the
12:13name that deserves special attention
12:15from me. It is the case of Ivanhoe
12:19Mines. It is a Canadian mining company
12:22that has been moving sideways for a
12:24long time, precisely offering an
12:26accumulation zone that could be quite
12:29interesting, as we marked here in the
12:31publication and where I took the
12:33opportunity to take a position. And it
12:36is not a recommendation, as you well
12:39know; in the case of Ivanhoe Mines, for
12:41me, it is a gem in the sector with
12:44Kamoa-Kakula in the Congo as one of the
12:46largest copper deposits in the world,
12:49which this miner operates and has been
12:51operating for a long time. With the
12:54free cash flow it is generating and the
12:56mined copper that is expected, it is
12:58clear that the fundamental path is
13:00upward. In fundamental terms and
13:02thinking about what is coming from this
13:04moment on, it could be at quite
13:06attractive trading levels. This is
13:08always from my point of view and
13:10knowing that I could be wrong. In fact,
13:13several months ago I published this
13:15theory in this previous post for the
13:17premium members who were in the
13:19newsletter discussing the targets,
13:20right? The level it was at, the current
13:24price, and the consensus target, which
13:27is 19.96 Canadian dollars. With the
13:30mining thesis update, we see it trading
13:33at around 12-something dollars, about
13:35the same as before, so the accumulation
13:37zone remains completely valid and
13:39according to the consensus, it has a 60
13:41%upside potential. With the
13:45Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic
13:48Republic of Congo, with a 389,000-ton
13:50deposit produced in 2025 and its growth
13:53trajectory, Kipushi is also added,
13:56which is zinc and copper, that whole
13:58deposit, and also Platreef, right?
14:01which are platinum group metals and
14:03nickel, diversifying the business
14:05beyond pure copper. Right now it has a
14:0960%potential according to the consensus
14:11and in my case, since I added it to my
14:14portfolio, I’m already up around 35
14:16to 40%. In other words, we are at a
14:19very interesting level for the long
14:21term. I back all this up with more
14:23details. I also provide risks and
14:25warnings. I gave my reading on it
14:28several weeks ago so that those in this
14:30information service have that access,
14:32but I’m sharing it with you all, and
14:34also now with that special discount for
14:36these days only, so you can see all the
14:38content we are publishing. And this
14:41mining thesis, which I see quite
14:43clearly, I have developed here in much
14:45greater depth and spoken aloud so that
14:47you can also see that I share content
14:49openly with the community, and for
14:51those who want to join early, you know
14:53where to find it down below so you can
14:55take advantage. That said, I want to
14:58ask you a question: do you find the
14:59copper thesis interesting? Do you find
15:01the silver miner or gold miner thesis
15:03interesting? Do you want me to do
15:05something in-depth regarding all of
15:06this here on the YouTube channel? Leave
15:08it in the comments, as I am interested
15:09in knowing your point of view. But in
15:11summary, what I see quite clearly is
15:14that copper is starting something that
15:16is very long-term. The miners are still
15:18at a point where they are lagging
15:20behind the rise in copper prices, so
15:22the opportunity cost, in my opinion, is
15:24quite high. I’m putting myself out
15:25there, and I’m doing it quite a bit,
15:27as you can see, and I could be wrong.
15:28Know that I can be wrong and that you
15:30should do your own in-depth analysis.
15:32Just because you see something on a
15:34YouTube channel from someone like me,
15:36who has been a communicator and analyst
15:38for over 15 years, don’t follow it
15:40blindly. That’s not what this is for.
15:42This channel isn't for you to follow me
15:44; it’s to make you think, reflect,
15:46and get this information, whether it's
15:48early or not, so that you can make your
15:50own decisions. I’ve already made mine
15:53, and I clearly see the path and the
15:54potential that copper and everything
15:56related to it has in this cycle. If
15:58this were to change at some point,
16:01don't worry, I will tell you. I will
16:03tell you because I’m transparent, and
16:05I also talk about my mistakes within my
16:07reporting, analysis, and opinions, of
16:09which there are quite a few. I’m a
16:11human being, just like everyone else.
16:12But anyway, having said that, I hope
16:14you liked the analysis, and to support
16:15it, please leave a like, subscribe to
16:17the channel, turn on notifications, and
16:19I’ll see you in the next video. A big
16:21hug to everyone, and see you soon. Cu?

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