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Durch den Anthropic IPO entstehen 2026 Millionäre! (Mein Plan) — Transcript

by Neffets · 3,117 words · 501 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Next week, Thursday or Friday, the time
0:01will finally come. The company Entropic
0:04is finally set to go public and is
0:06targeting a valuation of over one
0:08trillion US dollars.
0:10AI enthusiasts are already rubbing their
0:12hands in anticipation, eager to finally
0:14invest and be a part of one of the
0:15biggest IPOs of all time.
0:18But is Entropic really such a
0:19phenomenally good company, or will the
0:21private investor be left holding the bag
0:23again, as has so often happened in the
0:25past?
0:26We’ll look into exactly these questions
0:27in today’s video and shine a light on
0:29what we know about Entropic and whether
0:31a purchase could really be worth it in
0:33the long run. My name is Steffen, and
0:34I’ve been active in the stock market for
0:36over 14 years. In my videos, we look
0:38together at what really matters in
0:40fundamental analysis and which questions
0:42are decisive. If you like this, don’t
0:44forget to subscribe to my channel and
0:45turn on the notification bell. We’re
0:47starting right off with the latest news
0:49on Entropic, as usual, with my partner
0:51Investing. Normally, you can see the
0:53chart for any stock on Investing. Since
0:55Entropic is not yet listed on the stock
0:57exchange, there is logically no chart
0:58available. Instead, you get general
1:00overviews, historical data, the latest
1:02news and analyses, and, of course,
1:04financial ratios going back up to 10
1:06years. And as you can see, you can also
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1:10, for example, with an AI chart analysis
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1:48In my opinion, this discount is
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1:58Around Black Friday at the end of
1:59November, there will be a few extra
2:01percentage points on top.
2:02So, what can we find out about Entropic
2:05? The start of trading is targeted for
2:07next week, Thursday or Friday, so the
2:0919th. or the 20th. November. And of
2:12course, the AI company Entropic is
2:13planning a trillion-dollar valuation.
2:15The US AI company behind the Claude
2:17chatbot is heading toward one of the
2:19largest IPOs in history. A prospectus
2:22filed with the SEC reveals that the
2:24company is targeting a total valuation
2:26of up to one trillion dollars.
2:28The shares are set to be offered at a
2:30price between 70 and 78 dollars.
2:32Anthropic itself plans to sell up to 800
2:34million shares, with existing
2:35shareholders selling around 24 million.
2:38CEO Dario Amodei is aiming for gross
2:40proceeds of up to 64 billion dollars.
2:43And shortly before the planned IPO, the
2:45improved Claude model is being
2:46introduced. On Monday, Anthropic
2:48unveiled the revised version of its AI
2:50models, Claude Fable and Claude Mythos.
2:53The company highlighted advancements in
2:55quantitative research for programming
2:56tasks and autonomous AI agents. The new
2:59models operate up to 30%faster than
3:01their predecessors and feature low token
3:03prices. Anthropic is positioning these
3:05upgrades as a milestone.
3:07But there is a slight downside, as
3:10investors are now only discussing a
3:12valuation of 1.2 to 1.3 trillion US
3:14dollars—practically "small change" for
3:17Anthropic.
3:19I mean, a few weeks ago they were aiming
3:21for 1.5 or even 2 trillion US dollars.
3:23But as things go, the last few weeks
3:25have been a bit more volatile for the AI
3:27narrative, and questions regarding the
3:30sustainability of these investments,
3:32including from hyperscalers, are getting
3:34louder. Well, they had to scale back
3:36their expectations a little bit here.
3:38What else is there to say about it? One
3:40of the best AI models currently on the
3:42market is going public, marking one of
3:45the largest IPOs in the world to date.
3:48And if we look at the revenue growth
3:50figures—at the business model—man, "
3:52growth" is an understatement.
3:54So, there really isn't much that can go
3:56wrong. At least, that’s how the bulls
3:58would probably see it. What do the bears
4:01have to say? Those eternal party poopers
4:04. Well, they could point out that a 1.2
4:07trillion dollar IPO for a company that
4:10isn't yet sustainably profitable might
4:12be a very high valuation, especially
4:15given what has happened in recent weeks
4:18.
4:19The AI narrative has developed
4:20significant cracks, and there are more
4:23and more cautionary voices saying that
4:25the investment frenzy of the
4:26hyperscalers also has an expiration date
4:28.
4:30Once the data centers are built, the
4:32question will have to be answered
4:33whether the whole operation can actually
4:35be run profitably in the long term.
4:39Especially for companies that are active
4:41in the market as pure-play AI firms,
4:42like Entropic, hyperscalers like
4:44Alphabet or Meta at least have another
4:46business model to fall back on; they
4:48diversify across several pillars.
4:51Entropic, they only have that one. Let's
4:53all take a look at the current figures
4:55for Entropic. Where did I get these from
4:57? They are in the SEC filings. When a
4:59company goes public, the regulatory
5:01authority, the SEC, must be informed.
5:03They are provided with the relevant data
5:05, including the respective profit and
5:07loss statements and balance sheets, from
5:09which you can extract this. Let's start
5:12with revenue; first quarter 2025, a
5:14modest revenue of just under 400 million
5:17US dollars.
5:19One quarter later, second quarter 2025,
5:22we were already at 800, 1.4 billion, 2
5:25billion, 4.7 billion, 11.5 billion, and
5:28the last quarter, September 2026, we
5:31were at 17 billion US dollars.
5:34So, the growth, especially here in 2026
5:37, is really, really extreme. But here,
5:40too, it is worth letting the numbers
5:41sink in and really taking a look at what
5:43we are actually talking about. And uh,
5:45when it comes to Entropic's IPO, you
5:47very, very often read that they grew by
5:491000%or even more in revenue.
5:52Yes, that is certainly correct, but we
5:55must not forget that we are also coming
5:57from a very, very low base here, and
5:59especially in 2025 and '26, a true hype
6:02phase was triggered as AI, AI chatbots,
6:04and even AI agents arrived in real life
6:06for the first time, entering actual
6:09operation.
6:11Fourth quarter 2025 to first quarter
6:132026, a little more than a doubling.
6:17First quarter '26 to second quarter '26
6:19, well, a little more than a doubling;
6:21it actually accelerated significantly
6:23there.
6:24Second quarter '26 to third quarter '26
6:28, well, not much left of a doubling
6:31there. This means, especially here, that
6:34growth since June 2026 has significantly
6:37flattened out. We still have an increase
6:40of 4 billion US dollars, which is twice
6:43as much revenue as was generated in the
6:45fourth quarter of 2025, but it simply no
6:47longer has the proportions of 100%or
6:50more. The second point to keep in mind
6:52is that not only has revenue skyrocketed
6:54, but so have the costs for compute and
6:56infrastructure.
6:58In the first quarter of 2025, we were at
7:00900 million, and now we are at just
7:02under 10 billion.
7:04Then you add a bit of sales, marketing,
7:07partnership, and other operating and
7:09administrative costs, and just like that
7:11, the total costs have jumped from 1.3
7:14billion in March 2025 to 17 billion in
7:16September 2026.
7:18So yes, revenue has grown incredibly
7:20fast, but the costs are quite something
7:22, too.
7:23And if you look at the operating income
7:26, so far there has been only a single
7:29quarter where they actually made a
7:31profit from operations—that is, revenue
7:34minus expenses directly related to that
7:37revenue.
7:39Entropic hasn't yet been able to prove
7:41that they can truly generate long-term
7:43profits from their core operations,
7:45before any other factors are even
7:47considered.
7:49And then there are all the write-downs,
7:50where people have been saying in recent
7:52weeks, "Well, strictly speaking, that's
7:54not a real profit; those are just
7:55accounting effects."
7:57What does it even mean in this case that
7:59these are purely accounting profits and
8:00that they don't actually affect the pure
8:02profit and loss statement?
8:03What is happening here? Let’s assume you
8:05are a bank and you find someone who can
8:07do really amazing things with AI, for
8:09example, Entropic. And you say, "Hey,
8:11listen, we’ve taken a look, and this is
8:13really, really cool.""We believe you
8:15could really make it here.""We’re giving
8:17you a billion US dollars in venture
8:19capital."
8:21"You can use it to research, develop,
8:23and advance your model, but if you
8:25manage to go public, we want 10%of the
8:28shares—that is, 10%of your company
8:30should belong to us in the form of stock
8:32."
8:34"Sounds great, let's do it." Now
8:35Entropic is really successful, revenue
8:37keeps rising, and an awesome AI model
8:40has been developed. Great stuff,
8:42everyone can hardly wait for the IPO.
8:44Now the bank has a problem: they gave
8:46Entropic a billion, but the market value
8:49is suddenly supposed to be a trillion.
8:52That means this billion they gave back
8:55then, where they said, "10%of your
8:57company belongs to us," is no longer
8:59worth just a billion; it’s 10%of a
9:02trillion, which is hundreds of billions
9:04, and that has to be accounted for
9:06accordingly.
9:09This means the obligation Entropic has
9:11to the bank to hand over 10%of the
9:12shares rises to 100 billion, and at the
9:14same time, you have to offset it
9:16somewhere, and if you don't know where,
9:18you book it as profit.
9:20In this case, however, liabilities—that
9:22is, debt—increase, and accordingly, you
9:24book a loss rather than a profit. So yes
9:26, these are the accounting effects we
9:28are talking about here.
9:29The whole thing is not part of the core
9:31business, but we mustn't forget that it
9:34doesn't just exist in a vacuum, as it
9:36will lead to stock dilution.
9:38Let’s take a second step and look at the
9:39cash flow statement. First, the
9:41operating cash flow. We can see 2023, 24
9:44, 25, hmm, well, not exactly amazing;
9:47they were burning cash. In the first
9:50nine months of 2026, they were able to
9:53achieve a positive operating cash flow
9:55of nearly 6.6 billion US dollars.
9:58What catches my eye personally, however
10:00, are the stock-based compensations,
10:03which rose to nearly 3.3 billion US
10:05dollars in the first nine months of 2025
10:08. With revenues of almost 17 billion,
10:11that amounts to a ratio of nearly 20
10:13percent. That is really, really high. So
10:15, the operating cash flow from the core
10:17business is positive for the first time
10:20in 2026. Great stuff. If we go further
10:23down to investing activities—that is,
10:25cash flow from investment activities,
10:28e.g., capex and so on—it looks a bit
10:30different again.
10:32We can see that Entropic is still
10:33burning massive amounts of cash to this
10:35day.
10:36From financing activities, we see some
10:39really nice cash inflows of 110 billion
10:41from these financing rounds that have
10:43taken place in recent weeks and months.
10:45What have we looked at so far? Where
10:47does Entropic currently stand?
10:49If we look at the revenue growth rates,
10:51they have been beyond any doubt so far.
10:54However, we can also see that in the
10:55third quarter of 2026, these revenue
10:57growth rates are already starting to
10:59flatten out a bit. Yes, we had growth
11:01rates of 100 percent and even more.
11:05Well, the third quarter was still
11:07dynamic growth; there’s no need to
11:09complain about that, but those growth
11:12rates from the past are likely a thing
11:14of the past for now.
11:17This means, realistically, we can count
11:19on growth rates of 30 percent here,
11:21maybe a little more, maybe a little less
11:23; only time will tell.
11:26But all that growth was not yet enough
11:27to generate sustainable profits in the
11:29operating business.
11:31The second quarter of 2026, where nice
11:33operating profits were achieved—though
11:35not net profits at the very bottom line
11:37.
11:38Well, that was perhaps more of an
11:40exception. Yes, the third quarter of
11:422026 then looked different.
11:44It must be noted so far that Entropic is
11:47highly unprofitable and that it is not
11:49yet known when or if they will ever be
11:51able to reach the break-even point.
11:53Regarding cash flow, by 2026 we reached
11:55a threshold where, for the time being at
11:58least, it was shown that the core
12:00business can make money and that we have
12:02net inflows. When we go through the cash
12:05flow statement and also include the side
12:08issues a bit, like financing or
12:10investments, the whole picture changes
12:12again.
12:13It must also be noted that Anthropic
12:15still cannot operate profitably to this
12:17day, but instead is constantly burning
12:20through money—and not just a few euros,
12:22but a whole lot.
12:25So we have a company that has been
12:26burning massive amounts of cash, and
12:28where no one knows if or when they will
12:30actually make money and generate
12:31positive free cash flow.
12:34We have a company that has not yet
12:36proven that they can consistently
12:37generate profits in their core business
12:39and operational activities.
12:43And this company is supposed to go
12:44public next week with a valuation of
12:46over one trillion US dollars.
12:49I find the valuation being demanded
12:50quite interesting, and I don't think
12:53it's an overstatement to say that very
12:55little can afford to go wrong regarding
12:57their quarterly results over the next 12
12:59to 24 months.
13:01Everything revolves more or less around
13:03the question of how Anthropic's business
13:05model will likely develop over the next
13:07few years.
13:09How would Anthropic's business model
13:10develop over the next few years? You
13:12can't really estimate that with any
13:14certainty. AI is a new field, isn't it?
13:17We don't know how things will actually
13:19evolve in the future, how fast it will
13:21move, or if there are pitfalls that
13:23could set us back—regulation in the US
13:26is a hot topic right now, as is
13:28resistance to building new data centers
13:30.
13:31Everything is a bit difficult and a bit
13:33unknown. So let's stick to what we can
13:36already see today.
13:38Anthropic's AI model isn't the only one
13:40in the world; we now have numerous
13:43providers like OpenAI's ChatGPT,
13:45Google's Gemini, Meta, Microsoft,
13:47Chinese providers, and many smaller
13:50models from the West.
13:53Anthropic is facing a very tough
13:55competitive landscape, not just in terms
13:57of the number of models available, but
13:59also regarding token prices.
14:02During onboarding, new customers often
14:04come in and experiment, causing token
14:06usage to skyrocket, but there's no
14:08guarantee that this will continue in the
14:10future.
14:11Token prices are already dropping
14:13significantly.
14:14Let’s see where the bottom is reached.
14:17Maybe they will fall by another 30, 40,
14:1950%next year; one never knows. AI models
14:21are becoming cheaper and cheaper. AI
14:23models are in competition with one
14:25another.
14:26As for how Entropic's cash flow or
14:28profit and loss statement will turn out
14:31, we shall see.
14:32I wouldn't bet my life on it.
14:35In addition, Entropic has purchase
14:37obligations to major hyperscalers, such
14:40as Google, meaning Entropic has to pay
14:42for computing power regardless of
14:44whether they actually use it.
14:48It is said that by 2035, so let's say
14:51over the next 10 years, the total will
14:53be around 300 billion.
14:56Breaking it down, that means they have
14:58to spend about 30 billion US dollars per
15:00year over the next 10 years.
15:04That is almost as high as the revenue in
15:06the first 9 months of 2026.
15:08So even without calculating down to the
15:11decimal point, I would say the window
15:14here is quite narrow; it’s certainly
15:17tight.
15:18Not much can go wrong there, and this
15:20calculation is even relatively
15:23conservative.
15:24If you include all of the payment
15:26obligations that Entropic likely has for
15:29the coming years, you are looking at
15:31roughly 900 billion US dollars, and next
15:34year alone, around 70 billion US dollars
15:37must be coughed up.
15:39And this entire calculation doesn't even
15:42account for a development that I believe
15:45many are underestimating: the slow but
15:47steady trend toward AI running locally
15:50on mobile devices, meaning you no longer
15:52need massive server farms, but can
15:54actually run the bulk of simple AI
15:57applications locally on a phone, a
15:59smartphone, or a tablet.
16:02In terms of the breadth of applications
16:05, not today and not tomorrow, but in 3,
16:074, or 5 years, things could look very
16:09different if we just consider the
16:11progress we've seen in the last 3 years
16:14, both in the capabilities of AI models
16:16and the efficiency of the resources they
16:18require.
16:20What am I trying to tell you with all of
16:22this?
16:23Specifically, that Entropic’s IPO at the
16:25valuation level being requested should
16:28be approached with caution from a
16:30fundamental, long-term investor's
16:32perspective.
16:34Anyone betting that the stock price will
16:35skyrocket at the start of trading—well,
16:36that’s trading, which is a completely
16:38different matter.
16:39Fundamentally, when you look at the
16:42actual numbers behind this, oh boy,
16:45there is a whole lot of optimism priced
16:48in. And that is something you need to
16:50know.
16:51If you still say that you want to buy
16:52Entropic because you believe they have
16:54great long-term prospects and that a
16:56valuation of one trillion is actually
16:57quite cheap, that is a completely
16:59different matter.
17:00You are more than welcome to do that.
17:02But you have to recognize the risks and
17:04understand what is actually being
17:05delivered fundamentally.
17:07And in my opinion, it is not all that
17:10much, at least not enough for me to buy
17:13in without hesitation at the IPO or
17:15afterward.
17:16Because one of the few rules I strictly
17:19follow in the stock market is that I do
17:21not buy companies that haven't yet
17:23proven they can make money long-term.
17:25But as usual, that's just my opinion,
17:27and I'd be interested to hear what you
17:29have to say about Entropic. Are you
17:30excited about the IPO? Are you
17:32definitely going to buy, or do you say,
17:34"No, that's too risky for me"? Feel free
17:36to write it in the comments; I’d love to
17:37hear from you. Otherwise, I hope you
17:39liked this video. If you did, don't
17:40forget to hit the like button, ring the
17:42bell, subscribe, and tune in again next
17:43time.

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