Do Diffusion LLMs Scale? Testing Mercury 3 + Decide — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Okay, so most of the big AI labs are
- 0:02racing in one direction and that's that
- 0:05they're fully focused on intelligence.
- 0:07Every new release is about topping some
- 0:09other benchmark. And really when it
- 0:11comes to speed, that's not their main
- 0:13concern at all. And for a long time
- 0:16that's basically just been the story
- 0:18with auto regressive models, right?
- 0:20You're predicting one token at a time.
- 0:23Well, diffusion language models have
- 0:24been the exception here. They've always
- 0:26been much quicker than normal LLMs, but
- 0:29for a long time they came with a
- 0:30trade-off. They just didn't perform as
- 0:32well. You could kind of think of them as
- 0:34the fast little model that you could use
- 0:36for auto complete, but not the model
- 0:38that you could hand a real agent task
- 0:40to. Well, I've got to say with Mercury 3
- 0:43and Mercury decide, that's all changed.
- 0:46Mercury 3 itself runs at over a thousand
- 0:48tokens a second and on Inception's
- 0:51benchmarks, it sits in the same range as
- 0:53GPT-6 Luna and Claude Haiku 5.5. So,
- 0:57you're not having to give up all your
- 0:58intelligence just to get speed anymore.
- 1:01And Mercury 3 is not the only thing that
- 1:03they've been working on. Alongside that,
- 1:05there's Mercury decide, which is their
- 1:07take on a Jeb style decision model. And
- 1:10as I'm recording this, it's currently
- 1:11free on OpenRouter. Now, when Inception
- 1:14reached out to me to give me access to
- 1:16this early model and sponsor the video,
- 1:19I was really curious to see just how far
- 1:20diffusion models have actually come for
- 1:23LLMs. So, in this video I'm going to go
- 1:25through the two models. We'll look at
- 1:26benchmarks, both some from Inception,
- 1:29but also some third-party ones and I'm
- 1:31going to show you some tests that I've
- 1:32run myself and actually see where
- 1:35diffusion language models are these
- 1:36days. Okay, so if you don't know
- 1:38anything about diffusion LLMs, let me
- 1:41explain a little bit about them. So, how
- 1:44are they actually different? Well, most
- 1:46LLMs are auto regressive. You can kind
- 1:48of think of that as them writing like a
- 1:49typewriter, one token, then the next,
- 1:52then the next and every single token
- 1:54costs a full pass through the model.
- 1:57That's why decoding speed is so
- 1:58important. The diffusion on the other
- 2:00hand works much more like an editor.
- 2:02They start with a rough masked out draft
- 2:05of the whole response, and then they
- 2:07refine lots of tokens in parallel over a
- 2:10handful of passes. So, each pass does
- 2:13more useful work. And because inference
- 2:15is limited mostly by memory bandwidth,
- 2:17not compute, getting lots of tokens out
- 2:20of each pass is where the speed up
- 2:22actually comes from. And if the idea of
- 2:25diffusion sounds familiar, it should,
- 2:26right? It's the same basic idea behind
- 2:29most of the image and video generators
- 2:32that are out there now. And I'm going to
- 2:34point out that's why it's no coincidence
- 2:36that Inception CEO Stefano Ermon is one
- 2:40of the co-inventors of some of the key
- 2:42diffusion methods behind modern image
- 2:44and video generation. And the founding
- 2:47team at Inception have worked on
- 2:48techniques like this for quite a long
- 2:50time now, and many others that we use
- 2:53like DPO, flash attention, etc. So, this
- 2:56team is clearly a bunch of people who
- 2:58got diffusion early. And they've really
- 3:00been working hard for a while now to
- 3:02prove that this can work just as well
- 3:04for text, not just images. And so, the
- 3:07big question with diffusion LLMs has
- 3:10always been, do they scale? Back at ICML
- 3:13in 2024, I attended Sander Dieleman's
- 3:16diffusion circle, and specifically asked
- 3:18him at the time about this. Did it look
- 3:20like diffusion was going to take over
- 3:22LLMs just like it had done with image
- 3:24generation
- 3:25and video generation, and even things
- 3:27like music generation. And at the time
- 3:29then, it really was an open question. No
- 3:31one had been really able to show that
- 3:33these things could actually scale up to
- 3:34sizes where they became very strong
- 3:37language models. Now, Inception are
- 3:39really the ones who've shown that this
- 3:41can scale. And it's pretty cool that a
- 3:43reasonably small startup is actually
- 3:45doing this. So, back at the start, they
- 3:47started with Mercury 1. They showed how
- 3:49you could build a commercial diffusion
- 3:51model. And if you look at this chart, it
- 3:52really just shows what's happened since.
- 3:55From Mercury 1 Mini to Mercury 3,
- 3:57they've scaled total parameters by more
- 4:00than 40 X, and their intelligence
- 4:02average has gone up by 3 X. Now, the bit
- 4:05I find interesting is the jump from
- 4:07Mercury 2 to 2.5 was roughly the same
- 4:10size model. So, it seems like that gain
- 4:12came from training, not scale. But then
- 4:15from 2.5 to 3, they've really scaled up
- 4:18to a much bigger model here. So, both
- 4:21levers seem to be working for diffusion,
- 4:23which is exactly what we want to see if
- 4:25we're going to see this take off. Don't
- 4:27forget we're talking about a startup
- 4:29that doesn't have anywhere near the
- 4:30funds of the big players like OpenAI and
- 4:33Anthropic, et cetera. Okay, so how does
- 4:35Mercury 3 compare to models in its
- 4:37class? This is against basically GPT-6
- 4:41Luna, Claude Haiku 5.5. Where it's
- 4:44strong is in reasoning, instruction
- 4:46following, and search. It's doing very
- 4:48well on GPQA Diamond there. In fact, you
- 4:51can see that it's doing well on many of
- 4:52these benchmarks, including the Aether
- 4:55search benchmarks. While it's not at
- 4:57Opus 5.5 level for Aether coding, it's
- 5:00still well-suited for medium-level tasks
- 5:03and as a default model for coding
- 5:05sub-agents. And that whole idea of
- 5:08basically having like swarms of agents
- 5:11is really suited to this model. When
- 5:13you've got something so fast like this,
- 5:15you can deploy it for a whole bunch of
- 5:16different ideas like recursive
- 5:18self-improvement loops, understanding
- 5:20large code bases, and anything we've got
- 5:23a really large amount of data that you
- 5:25want multiple sub-agents to go across
- 5:27and interpret that data. And if you're
- 5:29building something like a search agent
- 5:30or a support bot, where following
- 5:32instructions really matters and speed
- 5:35matters, Mercury 3 is looking really
- 5:37strong here. Now, that's just comparing
- 5:39the intelligence benchmarks. If we start
- 5:42to look at speed, then Inception's
- 5:44numbers really take off. So, Mercury 3
- 5:47can get 1,068 tokens a second on Nvidia
- 5:51Blackwell. If you can compare that to
- 5:53those other models, that's about eight
- 5:55times what Luna gets, and even 4.5 what
- 5:58Claude Haiku is getting. And as you'll
- 6:00see in the demo that I showed, this
- 6:02thing just flies at being able to
- 6:05generate text out. And you also have the
- 6:07ability to turn the reasoning effort up
- 6:09and down. And you'll see just how quick
- 6:12that I can actually can make answers
- 6:13coming back. All right. So, where does
- 6:15this actually matter? So, Inception have
- 6:17a few early customers sharing numbers.
- 6:20The one I like was Octane, who do search
- 6:22on smart glasses. Their search was
- 6:24taking about 80 milliseconds. So, the
- 6:27model was the bottleneck there. With
- 6:29Mercury 3, the generation time is 0.9
- 6:32seconds. And you can imagine on smart
- 6:34glasses, anything that's going to take
- 6:35just a few seconds is suddenly going to
- 6:37make people think that something is
- 6:38broken there. Now, the price for this at
- 6:40launch is going to be 10 cents in and 35
- 6:43cents out per million tokens. It was
- 6:45actually 50% off. So, it's going to be
- 6:47interesting to see how long they run
- 6:48that. So, longer term, it may be a
- 6:50little bit more expensive than Luna or
- 6:53Haiku. But, you've still got the
- 6:54advantage of things like cached inputs
- 6:56being 90% off. And if your agent resends
- 7:00the same context every step, that's
- 7:02going to [clears throat] really add up.
- 7:03So, the idea is you're paying for speed
- 7:05here, not saving on tokens. Another
- 7:07example that they talked about was Tiny
- 7:09Fish, who build web agents. And in their
- 7:11blog post, they talked about other
- 7:13examples of people basically being able
- 7:15to do a lot more just because the model
- 7:17is so much faster. And the cool thing
- 7:19here is that this is fully OpenAI
- 7:21compatible, so switching is basically
- 7:24just changing a base URL change. It
- 7:27supports tool calling, it supports
- 7:29structured outputs, and they even
- 7:31support a context window of a million
- 7:33tokens, up from 260K in their last
- 7:36model. And it's great to see also that
- 7:38they've made this very easy for people
- 7:40to try out. Not only is it available on
- 7:42their own API, it's on Open Router, Base
- 7:46Ten, and Vercel. Okay, so Mercury 3 is
- 7:49the thinking model. It's the system two
- 7:51side of things. But, as I've been
- 7:53talking about on the channel for quite a
- 7:55while, a lot of things you want a really
- 7:57quick system one kind of decision.
- 7:59That's the whole sort of thing like
- 8:01agents just needing really quick calls.
- 8:03Is this a billing ticket? Is an agent
- 8:05stuck? Did a page actually load? And
- 8:07I've talked about it quite a lot on the
- 8:09channel. That's what decision models are
- 8:10for. These models don't generate any
- 8:13text at all. You give them some state
- 8:15and a question, and they give you back
- 8:16an answer and a probability in one call.
- 8:19So, here's where Mercury Decide fits in.
- 8:22It's a diffusion decision model. You
- 8:24pass in a state, and the cool thing
- 8:25about this is that can both be text, but
- 8:28it can also be images as well. You pass
- 8:30in a set of typed questions, and then
- 8:33the model will process all of that and
- 8:34return its answer in a fraction of a
- 8:37second. So, how good is it? So, rather
- 8:39than just take Inception's word for it,
- 8:41let's look at some of the independent
- 8:43evals for this one. Vala's AI ran it
- 8:45through the same tests they used on Jev.
- 8:47On claim verifications, it was already
- 8:50matching Jev. On legal bench, Mercury
- 8:53Decide is clearly ahead, scoring around
- 8:5587% versus 74%. And here's the cool
- 8:59thing, it costs about a quarter of what
- 9:01Jev does. And there's a free version
- 9:03that you can try on Open Router as well.
- 9:06On Artificial Analysis Decision Index,
- 9:09this model is third on not hallucinating
- 9:11at 32%. And like I've talked about in
- 9:13the other videos about decision models,
- 9:16it really matters when you want a model
- 9:18that says it's not sure instead of just
- 9:20guessing. And then on speed, Vala's
- 9:22measured a median of about 0.16 seconds
- 9:26for a single judgment and 0.4 seconds
- 9:29for 64 judgments. So, clearly a super
- 9:32use case with this is where you're
- 9:34passing in one context and asking lots
- 9:36of questions about that at the same
- 9:38time. Now, the new thing with the latest
- 9:40release of Mercury Decide is Vision. And
- 9:43I really think that this is a pattern a
- 9:44lot more agents are going to use. Cheap
- 9:46System 1 checks wrapped around a single
- 9:49System 2 call. You save the expensive
- 9:51thinking for the parts that need it, and
- 9:53you get a confidence score at every step
- 9:55that you can use to escalate to a human
- 9:57if you need it. Okay, so jumping into
- 9:59the demo here, I put together a little
- 10:01app for testing this out, and I'm going
- 10:03to show you a number of different things
- 10:05in here that I think are really cool
- 10:06with this testing suite and with my
- 10:07normal testing suite. So, first off, if
- 10:11you've never actually used a diffusion
- 10:12LLM, you're probably going to get a sort
- 10:14of shock at one, how quick it is, but
- 10:17two, also just how it actually does the
- 10:19tokens. So, let's look at this. I'm
- 10:21going to ask it to explain how diffusion
- 10:23language models differ from
- 10:24autoregressive ones. So, you'll see that
- 10:27it's going to take a bit to kick off.
- 10:29I've got some settings over here, but
- 10:30you can see very quickly look at it
- 10:32going, and you'll notice also as it goes
- 10:35through, it's already finished. Okay,
- 10:37what we can do here is I've put in a
- 10:39feature to replay it and slow it back
- 10:42down.
- 10:43If I come in here and replay this, you
- 10:45can see I've got it step back, so we can
- 10:47see what actually happened at each frame
- 10:50as we go along here. And you can see
- 10:52that
- 10:53it gradually sort of fixes things up as
- 10:56it goes through. Works out different
- 10:58tokens, like, okay, how the different
- 11:01tokens should come together.
- 11:03And it's very different than just sort
- 11:05of like a standard LLM, right? In fact,
- 11:07I can scroll through this manually, so
- 11:08we can just slow it down and look at it,
- 11:11right? So, with a normal autoregressive
- 11:13LLM, once it's committed to a token, it
- 11:17can't really go back and change that.
- 11:19Now, there've been some papers that have
- 11:21tried different ways of backtracking and
- 11:22stuff like that, but fundamentally, it's
- 11:25doing it step by step. Here, you can see
- 11:28it starts to sort of plot out like a few
- 11:31different paragraphs, and then it goes
- 11:33through and actually sort of refine
- 11:36this. So, we can see that as it's going
- 11:39along, it's working out what should be
- 11:41at that start there. And so, it had when
- 11:44we go back here, it had at there, but
- 11:47it's still and it's got auto something
- 11:49SU, but as we go through the frames, it
- 11:53starts to basically put it all together.
- 11:55And sure enough, it then assembles whole
- 11:58sorts of paragraphs and eventually gets
- 12:02through and gets right to the end where
- 12:05it's assembled the whole response here.
- 12:08And you'll see that the response reads
- 12:10perfectly, right? There's nothing
- 12:12unusual about the text that the
- 12:15diffusion LLM makes. It's just how it
- 12:18makes it is fundamentally different. So,
- 12:21this is one of the first things that is
- 12:22really cool to actually see here is just
- 12:26the speed of how this happens.
- 12:29And you can see there, that was so
- 12:31quick. Let me just run that again so you
- 12:33can see it. I'm not speeding anything up
- 12:34here. I'm just showing you the actual
- 12:36speed, right? It takes a little bit of
- 12:38time for the first tokens to come in,
- 12:40although it's so quick, I don't even get
- 12:42a chance to say that. But fundamentally
- 12:44then, it assembles it all and it's done
- 12:47very quickly in there. So, this is the
- 12:49advantage of diffusion, right? And
- 12:52you'll see if I give it one of my
- 12:53standard prompts about writing a
- 12:545,000-word essay,
- 12:57this is still going to take it a little
- 12:58bit of time. It's 5,000 words and you
- 13:00can see the time to first token there is
- 13:02taking a little bit to get going. But as
- 13:04it goes through, it basically puts all
- 13:06of this together
- 13:08and gives us out. And if I speed up down
- 13:10here, we can see it's still assembling
- 13:12the end of the document. So, it's going
- 13:14through in chunks, putting it together.
- 13:18But this model is actually very good at
- 13:20being able to put the whole thing
- 13:22together. So, in my test so far, I don't
- 13:25find it doing the things that a lot of
- 13:26the open models do of where they only
- 13:29write half [snorts] of the essay or they
- 13:32prompt it to oh, if I was going to
- 13:34continue, I would get to this and this
- 13:36and this kind of thing. So, that's one
- 13:37of the interesting things here. And you
- 13:39can see if I come in and actually paste
- 13:41that output in here, it's 4,200 words.
- 13:45So, that's certainly a lot better than a
- 13:48lot of the models are producing out. All
- 13:50right, if we come across to my normal
- 13:52sort of testing ground here, we can try
- 13:54it out also on things like the standard
- 13:57agentic tool calling stuff. And you'll
- 14:00see that look, it's just going through
- 14:01it all so quickly that there are 10
- 14:04tests in here and often it would take
- 14:07quite a long time for an autoregressive
- 14:09model to do this and I actually sort of
- 14:10pause it usually. I'm not getting a
- 14:13chance to pause it here. It's gone
- 14:14through, got 10 out of 10, done really
- 14:16nicely on them, no sort of overthinking
- 14:19that we see on some of them in there. If
- 14:21I come down and give it the sort of pro
- 14:23ones, again, the speed of the responses
- 14:26is really good here. So, this is doing
- 14:30really well and this is one of the
- 14:31things that we saw even some of the meta
- 14:34models having issues with some of the
- 14:36things in here. But, I'm going to let
- 14:37that go through. It's gone through and
- 14:39it's basically passed all eight of them
- 14:42perfectly, right? So, this is one of the
- 14:44cool things about this model, right?
- 14:45That it can do all those kinds of
- 14:48things. And for things like rag, a
- 14:50really nice job. You can see it's gone
- 14:52through very quickly doing 4,000 tokens,
- 14:56going through there to basically get the
- 14:58right answers. It was doing input to be
- 15:00able to extract things out. So, that
- 15:02one's Mercury 3, which is their system
- 15:05two model, right? That's basically where
- 15:07all the intelligence is, where it's
- 15:10doing a lot of thinking, reasoning, that
- 15:12kind of thing. If we change over to
- 15:15Mercury Decide, we've now got the system
- 15:18one model. And this is basically where
- 15:20you've got all your gem style decision
- 15:23model things going on in here. So, we
- 15:25can run things like a support ticket
- 15:27through this.
- 15:29And you'll see the crazy thing here is
- 15:30literally I'm almost just pressing it
- 15:33and it's giving me the answer back so
- 15:35quickly. So, I will basically let it go.
- 15:39And you can see okay, there it's gone
- 15:41through. It's basically done the
- 15:43classifications on this test. We've got
- 15:46the normals, we've got the choices,
- 15:48we've got a score in here. And the
- 15:51model's done really well there. We can
- 15:52also see the confidence scores for
- 15:54things like choice and for things like
- 15:56the score and stuff in there. If we want
- 15:58to see actually what got sent in there,
- 16:00we can see that's just a standard API
- 16:03for a decision model.
- 16:05And then our raw response back is just
- 16:07giving us the probabilities. Again, the
- 16:09standard for a decision model in here.
- 16:13Now, the cool thing about Mercury Decide
- 16:14is not only we can we do all of that
- 16:17with text, right? We can also do it with
- 16:20images. If I take a screenshot of this
- 16:23UI and basically I'm setting it to
- 16:26actually do a UI screenshot, this is
- 16:28going to be the screenshot of a page
- 16:31after a user has clicked pay. And then
- 16:34we're going to see does it have an
- 16:35error? Does it look like the payment
- 16:37went through, etc. And you can see the
- 16:39response back there was super quick. And
- 16:41in many ways, this is basically showing
- 16:44that's our image there, which is
- 16:45actually just a screenshot of this UI.
- 16:48So, really there's not a lot related to
- 16:50payments or anything like that there.
- 16:52All right, if we try and do something
- 16:53like an image check. This is a really
- 16:55good example, I think, of how people
- 16:57could use this. So, what I've done here
- 17:00is I've used an image generator to make
- 17:02up some catalog pictures that would go
- 17:05on like an e-commerce site or something
- 17:07like that. Each of them is the same kind
- 17:09of outfit. One is with a male, one is
- 17:11with a female, one is with no human at
- 17:14all. And you can see the questions I'm
- 17:16asking in here. I've got a whole bunch
- 17:18of different questions in there. I'm
- 17:19asking it about like is there a human in
- 17:22there? Is it safe for work? A photo, a
- 17:24screenshot? What's the quality and stuff
- 17:27like that? Let's just run it and see how
- 17:29it goes.
- 17:31And you can see already it's done. I
- 17:32don't even need to pause or anything
- 17:34with this. So that was the photo, right?
- 17:35It's a guy in an outfit there. Has a
- 17:38person, 100% yes. Safe for work, 99.8%
- 17:41yes. Kind equals photo. Person equals
- 17:45man. And then quality it's giving us 3.7
- 17:48there. Let me swap out this image.
- 17:52So now I've got basically the same
- 17:54outfit but a woman in there. Let's see
- 17:56how this one goes.
- 18:00And you can see pretty much everything
- 18:02else stayed the same. The only thing
- 18:04that changed was a woman, right? And
- 18:08that was quite deliberate. Like we want
- 18:10to have the same sort of look in here.
- 18:12We're just changing one little thing in
- 18:14the actual image, but the model's able
- 18:16to detect that and detect it really
- 18:18well.
- 18:19Let me try a last one where we've got
- 18:21the outfit, right? The same outfit that
- 18:23those two people were wearing, but now
- 18:25there's no human actually wearing this.
- 18:27Let me run it.
- 18:32And you can see sure enough it's
- 18:33basically has person is 0%. Still safe
- 18:36for work, in fact slightly more safe.
- 18:39And then person no human in there. So
- 18:41this ability to do these decisions
- 18:44really quickly really benefits from
- 18:47something like diffusion, right? You've
- 18:49got that really fast response time.
- 18:53You've got the ability to ask lots of
- 18:55different questions and stuff in here.
- 18:57Even in their benchmarks, when you ask
- 18:59sort of 64 questions, it's not really
- 19:01slowing the whole process down too much.
- 19:04It's still extremely quick with its
- 19:06responses. So just to wrap up the demo,
- 19:08the thing I would say is if you've never
- 19:10played with diffusion language models
- 19:13before, it's a lot of fun. I got to say
- 19:15it really is just fun to see how quick
- 19:18these things work. And I find it
- 19:20interesting how they're putting their
- 19:22whole sort of ideas together in a very
- 19:25different way than auto-regressive
- 19:27models. All right, so one cool thing
- 19:29that you can do is put these together.
- 19:31So this is an example of a pipeline
- 19:33that's using both Mercury Decide and
- 19:36Mercury 3 in here. So you can see that
- 19:39we've got some kind of ticket going in.
- 19:42And what it's going to do is basically
- 19:44do a bunch of classifications, go
- 19:45through, ask a bunch of questions. Then
- 19:47it's going to use the system two model,
- 19:50Mercury 3, to actually draft a response.
- 19:54So let's run this, and you'll see that
- 19:56it is actually spending the triage time
- 19:59of doing the decider stuff, then it's
- 20:01got the Mercury 3 running, and then it's
- 20:04got more checking at the end. So for
- 20:07this, it worked out that it was billing
- 20:09related. It worked out that it needed
- 20:11immediate attention. It needs a reply.
- 20:14It's a refund request. And then the
- 20:16Mercury 3 came in with that information,
- 20:19was able to basically draft a reply very
- 20:23quickly, and then we can then check it
- 20:25again with the decision model just to
- 20:27make sure did we do anything like
- 20:30over-promise? Is there anything that's
- 20:32sort of not in there? What is the tone
- 20:34like? That kind of thing. So you can see
- 20:37that in this case, we've basically got
- 20:39it where we got a flat-back acceptable
- 20:42to a bit of a warm response back. And in
- 20:45literally a couple of seconds here,
- 20:46we've had the whole thing be processed,
- 20:49checked, classified, all these sorts of
- 20:52things in a really fast time. All right,
- 20:55so where do these actually fit? Well,
- 20:57Mercury 3 makes most sense anywhere
- 20:59latency compounds. So agents, voice,
- 21:02search, tutoring, all those kinds of
- 21:05things, this is going to be a really
- 21:06useful model. Mercury decide on the
- 21:08other hand makes sense for high volume
- 21:10checks. So, anything like moderation,
- 21:13routing, and then especially anything
- 21:16where you can use the confidence score
- 21:18to escalate the uncertain cases. Both
- 21:21models are currently on launch pricing
- 21:23right now, so definitely worth checking
- 21:25out. And I think in closing, really what
- 21:27Inception has done here is that they
- 21:29show that diffusion does seem to scale
- 21:32for LLMs. Anyway, let me know in the
- 21:35comments if you've actually tried out
- 21:37these diffusion language models. If you
- 21:38haven't, I really suggest trying Mercury
- 21:403 out and just seeing how well, and more
- 21:43importantly how quickly it can actually
- 21:45work for your use cases. As always, if
- 21:48you found the video useful, please click
- 21:50like and subscribe, and I will talk to
- 21:51you in the next video. Bye for now.
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