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Dips in a BULL MARKET Context, Bitcoin, Altcoin Market and XRP Following Typical Track for Recovery — Transcript

by Blockchain Backer · 4,531 words · 632 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
0:18latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
0:23at the Bitcoin price chart along with
0:25the altcoin market which is bouncing
0:27around between the 50we and the 100week
0:29moving average trying to back test that
0:31May high set back here a little bit over
0:34$1 trillion as the total market cap of
0:36the cryptocurrency market is doing
0:38similar behavior in here. We're now in
0:40our fifth week above the 50week moving
0:42average. Emotions are quite volatile on
0:44ranges and behavior. However, this price
0:47action isn't anything you'd expect to
0:49see is we're just grinding this wall of
0:52worry, climbing our way back up. Ranges
0:54can take many shapes and forms. They're
0:56highly unpredictable. People who try to
0:58make sense of ranges or try to trade
1:00ranges do tend to get themsel chopped
1:03and portfolio deterioration happening
1:05within there. For me, I'm focusing much
1:07more on the bigger context of the market
1:09that by all cyclical behavior, we are
1:12well beyond the bottom. We've confirmed
1:14the bottom with the indicators. We've
1:16confirmed the bottom with the onchain
1:18metrics. After back in late June in the
1:21first day of July, Bitcoin hit those
1:2310.8 million coins in a loss historical
1:26figures that we typically see where the
1:27bottom does get marked for the market
1:29between 10.4 10.5 10.6 million coins in
1:32a loss. We saw that at the bottom of
1:342018. We saw that over here during the
1:36C19 crash and we saw that after FTX and
1:39the bottom of the market in 2022. We've
1:41already hit those levels and of course
1:42the market has ricocheted itself back
1:44after being in a bare market to get
1:47itself there and then now pulling back
1:49like we see in typical bare market
1:51bottoms. More coins get into a loss than
1:53in a profit and then they go the
1:55opposite way after the bottom is in.
1:57That happened during C19. That happened
1:59during the FTX collapse and the bottom
2:01of the market. Then they start to
2:03separate themselves and well that's
2:05exactly what we did here in 2026. And
2:07then that separation has now happened
2:09already, right? But of course, as you
2:11can see, we kind of enter into ranging
2:13behavior in here. Price action gets a
2:15whole lot more choppy until we can get a
2:17macro condition to line up to try to
2:19send us into that new all-time high.
2:21Now, I posted a newsletter yesterday
2:23morning, the early phases of a bull
2:24market, the same historical setup is
2:26taking shape in Bitcoin and altcoins,
2:28the next dynamic phase, and behind the
2:30scenes data. I've mentioned here many
2:32times on the channel that there's some
2:33back-end data that I can see just by
2:36being a content creator that I can see a
2:38whole lot more metrics in regards to
2:40sentiment when it comes to engagement,
2:42view counts, website traffic, behavior
2:45in that traffic that I can essentially
2:47line that stuff up on charts and have
2:49enough data because I've been doing this
2:50for 7 years as a content creator to see
2:53like early signs of a bare market or to
2:55see early signs of a reversal of a bare
2:58market. All that data was very present
2:59up here at the top of the early signs of
3:01a bare market and we've definitely
3:03already flashed all the behavior at the
3:05same time of the ending of a bare
3:07market. The very difficult part after we
3:09get through these phases like I just
3:10showed on the onchain data is all the
3:12ranging behavior that happens after that
3:14and then the dynamic phases that happen
3:17in a market from here. A lot of times we
3:19get really excited to see the market
3:20ricochet off the low together. Hey,
3:23let's go. It's time for these altcoins
3:24to pump. It's time for alt season. It's
3:26time for the best bull market of our
3:27lives. At least that's what every
3:29Twitter post we see is or YouTube video
3:32is. Keep the hype alive. But typically,
3:35we do go through phases as we try to
3:37work our way back up. Usually, we're
3:39going to end up ranging out for some
3:41time. Then there's some type of lead
3:42that happens by Bitcoin. And then once
3:45Bitcoin can clear those highs, that's
3:47when we can see the altcoin market start
3:49to really gain some true traction.
3:51Otherwise, we kind of go through this
3:52washing machine action throughout the
3:54market in various shapes and forms until
3:58there's a condition that can allow these
4:00bigger moves to end up happening. So
4:02far, we've gone through the things to
4:04mark the bottom, mark the low. Now, you
4:06know, is that good enough for range
4:07development? Still not quite sure we've
4:09had enough to say, yeah, that's the top
4:11of our range. This could push higher,
4:14get closer to that like 95 96 $97,000
4:17for Bitcoin before a bigger range sets
4:19in. or it could start from right here.
4:21It's very difficult on ranges. I'm not
4:23going to sit here and pretend to you
4:24that I have the perfect way to know how
4:27this range will develop within itself.
4:29But typically, we are going to sentiment
4:32will deteriorate again. Whether a range
4:35starts from here or a range starts from
4:37up in here, the altcoins will tend to
4:39kind of go stagnant for some time and
4:41then we have to wait for Bitcoin to go
4:43like that while the altcoins still stay
4:46stagnant. And then it's this moment
4:47where we get to rock and roll. That's
4:49typically how every cycle has happened
4:51in the past. Whether that's 2017, 2021,
4:54or 2024 into 2025. That is the order of
4:58operations. And it's usually led by
5:01something happening in macro. We do
5:03already have the Russell in new all-time
5:05highs. There's a remote chance that was
5:07probably good enough in here for this
5:09downward move that we've seen in the
5:11Russell to come back to these lows. It's
5:13back testing the high set in January and
5:15this range low that was established
5:17right here in May. However, I think it's
5:20likely going to be led by this IGV. This
5:22is what the crypto market has really
5:23been tied to over the last 5 years. And
5:26usually we have to see this lead the
5:28way. And the order is usually this has
5:30to go. Then we see Bitcoin go. And then
5:32everybody's screaming, why aren't my
5:33altcoins taking off? And then the
5:35altcoins kind of take off last. So, of
5:37course, you'll notice from the theme of
5:38my content for the last several weeks,
5:40it's been about trying to focus on where
5:42can a range develop at. We spent a lot
5:44of time talking about, hey, the top
5:45coming in. Hey, we're going to continue
5:46and capitulate in this market. Hey, we
5:48found a bottom. Now, do we have to hit
5:50these onchain losses? There's typically
5:52one more liquidation. We get the
5:53liquidation. I put out like a 35minute
5:55video talking about crashing structure
5:56saying this is it. This is the crashing
5:58structure. This is how the bottom is
5:59formed. Now, we need the confirmations
6:01of the bottom to come in. We get the
6:03confirmations of the bottom to come in
6:04as the relative strength breaks its way
6:07out after a bullish divergence is put in
6:10place down in here. That is how we
6:12confirm a bottom in addition breaking
6:14that 50week moving average along with
6:16our daily breath finally opening here in
6:18the crypto market where there is broad
6:20participation coming off of this low.
6:22That is how we have marked bottoms
6:24historically, not just in bare markets,
6:26but even in ranges of any size, getting
6:29that breadth to finally start to wake up
6:31or even flicker on. Frankly, we this has
6:33been on much longer than I would have
6:35expected it to. Even if it only did a
6:37little blip like this, I'd still be
6:39coming on here every day making the
6:40argument, we've already seen the fl the
6:42breadth flip. We've already seen a
6:43little nudge of its life come to life.
6:45I'd be making the exact same argument
6:47regardless of it being open or
6:48regardless if this thing even goes and
6:50closes itself shut in here because it's
6:52probably going to end up being the
6:54development of a range happening which
6:56is what we usually see. But the point
6:57I'm getting at by talking about all
6:59these different things is to say these
7:00range developments are incredibly
7:02difficult to pinpoint especially this
7:04early into it. I could still present an
7:06argument that it could have to do it
7:08from higher or it just ends up doing it
7:10all throughout in here. It doesn't make
7:12any difference for me because I'm
7:13looking at it from the bigger
7:14perspective that I'm not taking any
7:16action. If you're going to try to day
7:17trade a range, I do think you are making
7:20lots of 50/50 guesses. And I think it
7:22makes it very hard to set like
7:24invalidations on where levels are going
7:26to be important for any of those 50/50
7:28guesses. So, for me, I'm really just
7:30holding on for dear life and trying to
7:31figure out how can I enter more capital
7:33in here when I know this is the stuff we
7:35do when the bare market's over and when
7:37we've confirmed the low already being
7:39in. It doesn't get rid of the idea is
7:41that we still have some type of ranging
7:43that will have to happen in here. So I
7:45keep coming on to the channel kind of
7:46emphasizing that point in that the order
7:49of operations in which we typically are
7:51going to behave in is that there's some
7:53type of range development that happens.
7:55Macro or the IGV goes breaking out into
7:58a new all-time high. Then Bitcoin
8:00separates and breaks into a new all-time
8:02high leaving the altcoin market behind.
8:04Then once Bitcoin actually expands, then
8:06the altcoin market goes roaring and then
8:08the Bitcoin dominance goes kplunk. And
8:10our last cycle, we didn't really have a
8:13huge kplunk happen in the Bitcoin
8:15dominance. My thoughts with that were
8:17that we just did not see breadth open in
8:20the market. It's a long story. We can go
8:21into all that another time. But that
8:24we're printing some type of bubble
8:25throughout the United States stock
8:26market. It was a consolidation of
8:28breadth into the mega caps. and we did
8:30not get broad participation with the
8:32rest of the market with the small caps
8:33and the midcaps and neither did the IGV
8:36but that we have a higher chance of
8:39being able to see an expansion happen
8:41here in IGV a bigger run happened in the
8:43Russell and that of course translate
8:45over here to the altcoin market for the
8:47biggest catch-up trade and that we're
8:49not met with that same problem we were
8:51met with in 2024 and 2025 of an absence
8:54of Brett the consolidation of capital
8:56into major caps and that we have this
8:58better chance to do it But usually what
9:00ends up happening is there's some type
9:01of run up. Like if you look at this one
9:03right back in here, this is where
9:05Bitcoin runs back to the all-time high
9:07back in 2020, right? You can look right
9:09throughout in here. This is this moment
9:11where Bitcoin goes and stabs for the
9:13all-time high independently and then it
9:15breaks out and of course the dominance
9:17collapses on itself. But there's usually
9:19this little run that happens here to the
9:21high by itself. And that's also what we
9:23witnessed here in 2023, 24, and 25. So,
9:26I'm trying to lay the groundwork of like
9:28expectations of it's exciting to see the
9:30market go into this reversal behavior of
9:32what a bottom looks like in here, but
9:34also establishing that there's usually a
9:36couple of orders of operations we have
9:38to follow before we get there. It's all
9:40very exciting. It just usually takes a
9:42little bit of time for it to pan itself
9:44out. I'm not going to day trade it. I'm
9:46just going to keep trying to nip at it
9:48every time there's some type of scary
9:50dip where the crowd gets scared because
9:52I have to follow all this data that
9:54tells me, you know, technicals, you
9:56know, onchain in here or beyond the
9:58worst of the market. It's very hard to
10:00know will that end up being really the
10:03best prices offered for a couple of
10:05months and so we have to come back and
10:06back test, you know, or will we, you
10:08know, do it deeper and then eventually
10:10go for it later. you know, I'm willing
10:11to continue nipping at it, making little
10:13buys even in the event of a deeper push
10:16because I get the dynamic. I get what's
10:18happening in here. I get it's probably
10:20going to be a couple of months at a
10:22minimum minimum uh until we see like an
10:25absolute rager happen in here, but also
10:27a little bit of a guessing game here.
10:29I'm being like, well, you know, may this
10:30there's a chance that's the best offer
10:32that we end up getting for some time,
10:34but then preserving some capital in
10:36case, you know, there's some 200 day
10:38back test that's going to happen in here
10:40that's going to scare the market. If you
10:42recall this one, this one came with a
10:43narrative. Right now, you can you can
10:45kind of sniff it in the air. We're
10:46getting lots of like random fear
10:47narratives happening. This one was of
10:49course like the banking scare like
10:50shutting down crypto banks and stuff
10:52only for the market to reverse the
10:54opposite way, right? Right? And so now
10:55we're met with a lot of this kind of a
10:57weird dynamic where most of us our
10:59brains tell us, hey look, market go up
11:01together, market go down together,
11:03market capitulate, break levels
11:05together, market fine floor together.
11:08It's all like this everything moves
11:10together idea. But what always ends up
11:13happening here is where it's very
11:16different. And it doesn't mean the
11:18bottom's not in. It does mean the bottom
11:20is in. It does mean we're setting up for
11:22a bull market whenever we do these
11:24things, but this phase in here is very
11:27different from what people are used to
11:29or what the messaging is that you're
11:31going to be receiving on social media or
11:33in YouTube videos. And it's that
11:35eventually a range builds, Bitcoin
11:37separates, which is typically led by
11:39macro and then altcoins come later. And
11:42if your time preferences are one week or
11:44one month or two months or something
11:46like that, then that's not in historical
11:48line of with really where we are in the
11:50market right now. But if your time
11:52preferences are on like like just how do
11:54things usually transpire over the course
11:56of one year from right now, it's usually
11:59well within that amount of time, we see
12:01this type of phase play out, we see a
12:04separation play out, we see Bitcoin
12:06follow, and then we see all coins follow
12:07afterwards. It's usually about the
12:09appropriate amount of time to have that
12:10kind of preference on and I'm not saying
12:12that would take a year. You can see from
12:14this point right in here it was it was 6
12:16months and then we were entered into
12:17that phase after that after 6 months. I
12:19don't think we'll look identical to what
12:21we were looking like back in here
12:22because we don't have that same dynamic
12:25in the market between macro and between
12:27crypto right now. It's very different.
12:29There's like this rubber band attached
12:31between these two where they've got to
12:33pull themselves together. Unlike what
12:35was happening down in here where they
12:37were both just in lock step. But I do
12:40think the best service I can offer to
12:42you with content here on the YouTube
12:43channel is just trying to describe that
12:45and I mentioned that you know in the
12:47last video. I think you can hold the
12:48view of being like the bottom is in but
12:50now what are all the phases that usually
12:52come after the bottom being in and
12:54that's where we get into all the
12:55nitty-gritty and the dynamics of the
12:56market. The crowd will be emotionally
12:59like a washing machine because of low
13:01conviction capital getting entered after
13:03missing the low. But they are really
13:05just a bunch of noise. Market's very
13:07exciting. And for all we know, this
13:09thing could just push a little bit
13:10higher before that range establishes.
13:12But even if you kind of kept your time
13:13preferences on like looking at something
13:15like XRP and looking at historical bare
13:18markets and recoveries and when do you
13:20usually actually see the price like
13:22meaningfully move away from this range.
13:25In past cycles, it's usually about
13:27December for the amount of time.
13:29Usually, it takes about 24 months before
13:32you've like really confirmed it and it's
13:34like obvious to everybody. And right now
13:36would put us at about 22 months, right?
13:39Very clearly spoken here. The bottom is
13:41in. We've hit the historical levels we
13:44need to hit over here for XRP. Really,
13:45that minimum that we need to hit, which
13:47is 42.4 billion coins being in a loss.
13:51We found our true bottom in 2022 at 42.2
13:542 billion. But this is the nitty-gritty
13:56discussions of what do walls of worry
13:58look like when they climb back up and
14:00crowd sentiment and ranging and grinding
14:03and it's all just a process. So
14:06important in my opinion to keep that
14:08really big picture perspective happening
14:10in here. We know the crowd can ignore
14:12all of this stuff and then it becomes
14:14viral to scream lower and lower cuz they
14:17ignored all of this at the actual
14:19bottom. So any type of range building or
14:21narrative building or anything like
14:22that, you know it. like come on, you
14:24know it. The crowd is going to come up
14:26with something to be fearful and scared
14:27of and scream and people are going to
14:28say they're selling and everything and
14:30we're going lower and everything like
14:31that when there's just no evidence of
14:32it. And so right now I'd love to come on
14:34here and be like, "Yeah, like not only
14:35is the bottom end, we're ready to moon,
14:37baby." But the very cold truth is the
14:39next phase is a range development
14:41followed by macro leading, then Bitcoin,
14:43then the old coin market. So the market
14:46still looks fine. It looks great. This
14:47is the same type of stuff we do in a
14:49wall of worry climb. I think there's a
14:51lot of talking heads, a lot of giga giga
14:53brains trying to make sense of a lot of
14:56stuff. And you know, we know there's a
14:58lot of offsides capital that still wants
15:00to call for lower, you know, but your
15:01bigger picture tells you no,
15:04we don't usually, it's not that we don't
15:06usually go lower. We never have gone
15:08lower after we've done all the things
15:10that we've already done in the market.
15:12The thing that is usually different is
15:13how each of these climbs back up happen.
15:15Uh, I've I've enjoyed kind of leaning on
15:17this one a little bit because it's
15:18really been extremely precise throughout
15:20the whole bare market and it seems like
15:21nobody wanted to believe this is how the
15:23market would behave during the bare
15:24market, but it was really just kind of
15:26pinpoint on the money and it's really my
15:28most bullish outlook that you could
15:30have. And I don't think there's anything
15:31wrong with it with what's going on in
15:32today's market. But I do think we're in
15:34it for kind of the ride for a moment
15:36that this process does not usually work
15:38itself out over the course of a week or
15:41a month. But it does take several months
15:42for this type of process to work itself
15:44out until something becomes really
15:46obvious and we're like, you know what, I
15:48think we could make a meaningful move in
15:49here. I don't see that today of saying
15:51like we're ready to break out. And I I
15:53would like very clearly I would tell you
15:55if IGV shot into new all-time highs, I'd
15:58be sitting there saying, "What are we
16:00doing everybody? Why are we still being
16:02bearish?" Uh the next thing we're
16:03watching for is for Bitcoin to try to
16:05make a stab and then after Bitcoin makes
16:07its stab, then altcoins buckle up
16:09because that's when we come up next. But
16:11of course, we're still waiting for those
16:13phases to play themselves out, but it
16:15doesn't change the big picture that
16:16everything in the market looks fine. So,
16:18we're in it for the in it for the ride,
16:20in it for the long term right now until
16:22the range makes itself very obvious. I
16:24don't necessarily think we have to stop
16:26here at this 100 week because the 100
16:28week is not historically always a major
16:31resistance. It's usually a supportive
16:33floor into a bare market. Um but in the
16:36ranging action shooting its way back up,
16:38it doesn't always play a big role in
16:40being something significant as a
16:42resistance level. And uh I could I could
16:44easily see it, you know, playing around
16:46the 100 week uh before things get
16:48shooting their way up. Otherwise, your
16:50big picture looks fantastic in the
16:52market. We've just got to be a little
16:53bit patient right now, but at the same
16:56time maintaining that big picture
16:57perspective of where we've come from and
17:00not letting the emotions of the crowd
17:02impact us, nor at the same time falling
17:05prey to the narratives and fake hype
17:07that are created to try to convince us
17:10that things are ready to go to the moon
17:11this week or this month. It is usually a
17:14process and we've got to go through the
17:15various ones until we get to the
17:17full-blown breakout, which I do think
17:18will eventually come. But so long as
17:20we're in here, even in this dip down
17:22here where markets kind of screaming,
17:24you got the CPI data coming out, you got
17:26people kind of panicked about stocks,
17:27you got Jim Kramer saying bears are in
17:29control, I have no problem accumulating
17:31coins during those types of
17:32environments. I'm not scared of any dips
17:34that come in this market right now
17:36because I do get this big picture
17:37perspective and I do just look at the
17:39big data pile that we have happening in
17:41here in this market that no matter what
17:43dips keep coming in here, I will keep
17:45stabbing at them. And frankly, people
17:47who have followed this channel
17:48throughout the course of the bare market
17:49and throughout the course of the bottom
17:51and you've seen all this data, seen all
17:52this technical data, you've seen this
17:54onchain data. You've studied the
17:55crashing structures like we talked about
17:56when we were at the lows and the
17:58reversals and the confirmations that we
17:59needed for Brett and the confirmation of
18:00the bullish divergences on the RSI and
18:02the break of the 50WE. Like you get it,
18:04right? Like it's this isn't like
18:05opinionated. This is all just data. Like
18:07every single time these orders of
18:09operations happen, this is what it means
18:11of where we are in the market. I have to
18:13operate under that same pretense because
18:16this is the data that we have and the
18:17data that we have also says we tend to
18:20range in here. There's lots of walls of
18:22worry. There's lots of sentiment
18:23deterioration. That's why I focused so
18:25hard on conviction is going to matter.
18:27Even when the crowd was really excited
18:29weeks ago saying, "Hey, conviction is
18:30going to matter because when dips come,
18:32this capital has extremely low
18:34conviction that was just chasing for 40
18:36to 50k and is being forced to enter in
18:38here. their conviction is so low,
18:41they're going to be screaming on X on
18:43any pullbacks. And that's why we've got
18:45to focus on the really big picture in
18:46here. And so in this newsletter that I
18:48just published yesterday morning, the
18:49early phases of a bull market, we dive
18:51into a lot of things and more details
18:53about, hey, look, this is the order.
18:55This is the phases that we go through.
18:56This is the historical setup that we
18:58typically have. Here's the order of
18:59operations in which we tend to move.
19:01Here's the phase that we're usually
19:02going to be entering into. And then also
19:05really presenting even more. We've
19:06talked about onchain. We've talked about
19:08technicals. We've seen all these things
19:10manifest in themselves. But again,
19:12there's data of just like engagement,
19:14social behavior. And in here, I share
19:16some of my own metrics of engagement and
19:18website traffic to kind of show here's
19:20what happens when we're at a top and
19:22here's what happens when we're at a
19:23bottom. And even right now throughout
19:25all of this, there's a massive change in
19:27the engagement and in the behavior of
19:29the crowd compared to what we
19:31experienced really just like back in May
19:33or back in February or back in that
19:35liquidation in June and July. The
19:37changes are clearly obvious in here. Uh
19:40we have moved into a new phase in this
19:42market. And so it's totally appropriate
19:43to be looking at it through this phase
19:45of saying now we're kind of waiting for
19:47things to kind of calm down, set
19:48themselves up, and then look for the
19:50bigger move to come where we see macro,
19:52Bitcoin, and then the altcoin market all
19:54operate together. So an exciting time.
19:56Check out the newsletter. Blockchain
19:58backer.substack.com includes a 43minute
20:00audio recording. I personally record
20:02these after writing them. There's a link
20:04in the description of all of my videos
20:05to the newsletter at
20:06blockchainbacker.substack.com
20:08or you can go directly within your
20:09browser. Otherwise, you guys have a
20:11wonderful weekend. We'll see if we get
20:13something different to play out when we
20:14get together next week. We've still just
20:16been stuck in here since about September
20:1821st. So, almost a whole month of being
20:20stuck in here. The past ranges that
20:22we've witnessed ever since July. Each of
20:24them have lasted about 30 days. So,
20:26we'll get there next week and we'll see
20:27how it kind of shapes up. Till then,
20:28I'll check in with you soon. But, thank
20:30you so much for watching. If you could
20:32please like this video and give it a
20:34thumbs up. If you're new to the channel,
20:35please subscribe and hit the
20:37notification bell so you could be
20:38notified of when I create new content
20:40and when I go live. As always, this is
20:42not investment advice and I am not a
20:44financial adviser. But if you ever need
20:46a pickme up or a little bit of
20:48reassurance, just remember that the
20:50blockchain backers got your back. Have a
20:53good one.

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