Die ultimative Swing-Trading-Strategie 2026 (Für Anfänger) — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:01Most traders always think you have to
2. 0:02sit in front of the chart all day long
3. 0:04to generate performance and returns.
4. 0:07Often, the exact opposite is the better
5. 0:10way. In swing trading, you only need a
6. 0:12little bit of time. You have many, many
7. 0:15fewer things that you need to pay
8. 0:17attention to and that distract you.
9. 0:19Second, I will show you exactly how you
10. 0:22are able to technically localize
11. 0:24whether the right moment has arrived.
12. 0:27In this video, I will show you what
13. 0:30swing trading is, how I plan my trades
14. 0:32step-by-step, and at the end, my
15. 0:34personal swing trading strategy, which
16. 0:37is, of course, absolutely suitable for
17. 0:39beginners. Yes, swing trading. What
18. 0:43actually distinguishes swing trading
19. 0:45from investment processes or from
20. 0:47short-term day trading stories? It is
21. 0:50very important to define that first. In
22. 0:52swing trading, the situation is that we
23. 0:55want to locate trades with holding
24. 0:57periods of 3, 4, or a maximum of 7, 8
25. 0:59days where there is current momentum or
26. 1:02where we can assume momentum will arise
27. 1:04. And for me, in the swing trading
28. 1:08process, it is different from technical
29. 1:10day trading in that you absolutely must
30. 1:12look at what the idea behind it is for
31. 1:14you, so that you can also trust your
32. 1:16trade. Secondly, if you implement this
33. 1:20in stocks, there are, for example,
34. 1:23current figures being released, such as
35. 1:25quarterly reports or something, that
36. 1:28can thwart your plans. You absolutely
37. 1:31have to screen for that beforehand. And
38. 1:34to provide you with ideas on how you
39. 1:35can best determine this process for
40. 1:37yourself, I want to give you an idea to
41. 1:39take with you. Yes, let's get started.
42. 1:43When I say it is totally important for
43. 1:45me to even get an idea of my trade in
44. 1:47the first place, so that I also gain an
45. 1:50advantage fundamentally, i.e., from the
46. 1:52current market data situation, yes, to
47. 1:55get anything at all. You can, for
48. 1:58example, read quarterly reports, you
49. 2:00can do the wildest things, which of
50. 2:01course cost an incredible amount of
51. 2:03time. You can, for example—there are
52. 2:06people who use seasonalities. There are
53. 2:09people who use COT data in the
54. 2:11commodities sector. These are all just
55. 2:15ideas that could suggest an investment
56. 2:19decision to you, but such an idea is
57. 2:22far from enough to go into
58. 2:24implementation. And I prefer—we at
59. 2:29Trades Traders prefer—to stick to
60. 2:31ideas that the global players use. And
61. 2:35to show you what, for example, the
62. 2:36global players really like to use, we
63. 2:38will go down this path here. First of
64. 2:41all, we look at what this all looks
65. 2:43like. Who uses which key figures to
66. 2:47look for real investment processes? And
67. 2:52if you, for example, create a duality
68. 2:55of growth and inflation, then you are
69. 2:58using exactly the same method that
70. 3:01large institutions like Merrill Lynch
71. 3:04or Goldman Sachs have been using for
72. 3:07many, many years to figure such things
73. 3:11out. And how do they do that? They look
74. 3:16, for instance, at what phase the
75. 3:19market is currently in, and this market
76. 3:23phase—reflation, recovery, overheat,
77. 3:27or stagflation—always determines
78. 3:31which product they currently prefer in
79. 3:35order to supply those products with
80. 3:38liquidity. Why do they do that? Because
81. 3:44it is the absolute decisive way to
82. 3:47forecast your assets over the long term
83. 3:50. A little more on that. You can, for
84. 3:54example, use the so-called
85. 3:55four-quadrant model. We really like to
86. 3:58use it in the field of investments,
87. 4:00where you can then see which assets are
88. 4:03currently being favored. For example,
89. 4:06in a recovery, stocks are often "risk
90. 4:09on." This means that a lot of liquidity
91. 4:13is being pumped into tech stocks and so
92. 4:16on. We just had that for a very, very
93. 4:17long time. Then there is often a phase
94. 4:21called overheat, and that is the phase
95. 4:24we are currently in, and in this
96. 4:25overheat phase, you have to look at
97. 4:28which assets are being strongly
98. 4:30supported, and those can then be
99. 4:32commodities. And now we come to the
100. 4:36all-important point. Is the idea I am
101. 4:40currently looking for—let's take
102. 4:43commodities, for example—also truly
103. 4:46being played by the market from a
104. 4:51technical and liquidity perspective? We
105. 4:54quite like using tools like the Capital
106. 4:56Flow Index for that. That is one way to
107. 5:00read how much liquidity is currently
108. 5:02flowing into the corresponding products
109. 5:04. But you can also go ahead and look at
110. 5:09a chart, combined with liquidity, to
111. 5:12see how much stability that chart has.
112. 5:18And now let's just say we take another
113. 5:22path and assume we had the
114. 5:24corresponding market phase and jump
115. 5:27back into recovery, and we promote
116. 5:30stock markets as an investment model.
117. 5:36And now, of course, you have to know
118. 5:38which stocks are the most decisive. And
119. 5:40I would like to introduce something to
120. 5:42you now to keep it simple for the start
121. 5:43. And we will take an index. Let’s
122. 5:47just take the DAX in this case and see
123. 5:49that the DAX, currently way up here,
124. 5:52gives me an opportunity to say: "Wow,
125. 5:55this whole thing looks really strong
126. 5:57and stable." And now I would like to
127. 6:03examine with you whether this is really
128. 6:06a point right now where I would
129. 6:08absolutely want to buy. And now I am
130. 6:12looking at the trading volume first,
131. 6:14and I can already see that the
132. 6:16liquidity is decreasing, but it is
133. 6:18starting to increase again here in this
134. 6:21area. This means it seems like
135. 6:24liquidity is coming into the market.
136. 6:27The first question is: is liquidity
137. 6:30currently entering the market? Yes,
138. 6:33liquidity is flowing in. The second
139. 6:37thing is, when liquidity enters the
140. 6:40market, what does the market structure
141. 6:43look like? And I would like to strongly
142. 6:48recommend this to you as an absolute
143. 6:51timer, so that you can define the whole
144. 6:53thing mathematically in a valuable and
145. 6:56clever way. Look, we are going back
146. 7:00into this chart now and examining it in
147. 7:03a very rudimentary way, asking: what
148. 7:05did the last down moves look like? So,
149. 7:10when the market had corrections, I can
150. 7:13immediately see from the spacing that,
151. 7:17yes, they are relatively small, or
152. 7:20rather, they are becoming even smaller.
153. 7:25And now I look at the up moves, just to
154. 7:28get a feel for how strong the market is
155. 7:31performing right now. And then I can
156. 7:35see, wow, this is really very, very
157. 7:37interesting at the moment. But now I
158. 7:42ask myself one last question: is this
159. 7:44really the right moment to open my
160. 7:46trade? And if I just compare the last
161. 7:52highs, quite simply, then I see that,
162. 7:55except for here, there was a reaction
163. 7:59at every high point. And now I'm
164. 8:05looking at the whole thing and see that
165. 8:08I would actually be better off waiting
166. 8:11here to see if the market gives me a
167. 8:14reaction that, in turn, supports my
168. 8:16idea. supports. And that is all
169. 8:23crucially important to be on the right
170. 8:26side in terms of the risk-reward ratio.
171. 8:31And if I look at the intervals of the
172. 8:34last movements again in a very
173. 8:37simplified way, I also see that the
174. 8:41movement has currently not come down at
175. 8:44all yet. Now, I could of course be
176. 8:48afraid that I might miss a trade here
177. 8:49or something. But I can also just say
178. 8:53that I have the patience now and will
179. 8:56wait until a recovery phase has arrived
180. 8:59. So, and now comes the essence. Now
181. 9:04let's assume the market does exactly
182. 9:07that and moves, for example, to here.
183. 9:11What can I do now? Now I go back here
184. 9:16and say: "Okay, I technically have the
185. 9:20idea to buy now. The moment my idea is
186. 9:28technically supported, I should check
187. 9:32again: are the data, the inflation data
188. 9:37and the economic growth data, still in
189. 9:41that range where stock markets are
190. 9:45truly supported? And if I can put a
191. 9:51checkmark there, then I know clearly. I
192. 9:55have the proof here: it is interesting
193. 9:58on the technical side. I have the proof
194. 10:03here: it is still interesting on the
195. 10:06side of macroeconomic aspects. And now
196. 10:10something crucial is still missing. I
197. 10:15should definitely go ahead and have a
198. 10:17mathematical advantage now. And when we
199. 10:21look at the whole thing, as it just
200. 10:24looked, and we now have the
201. 10:26corresponding point here where we want
202. 10:30to buy, then I need an upside profit
203. 10:33target that I can determine for myself,
204. 10:37and I need a downside risk where I say,
205. 10:40from here on, I will give up my trade.
206. 10:46And how I do that, I can also very
207. 10:48easily establish for myself here using
208. 10:51these simplest methods. I can then say,
209. 10:55these distances here are my minimum
210. 10:58profit target that I would like to
211. 11:02expect for myself. I calculate them
212. 11:05from here on. Now I can, look, I had
213. 11:09prepared it so nicely, also go ahead
214. 11:12and say, this is the maximum that has
215. 11:15run downwards in the past, and I can
216. 11:18say, okay, this here is now my risk,
217. 11:21that is where I put my stop-loss. Yes,
218. 11:27and so I suddenly have a model where I
219. 11:30can quite clearly also say
220. 11:33mathematically: I have this distance
221. 11:38here as risk, risk, and this distance
222. 11:48here I have as profit, and then I can
223. 11:50already see, my profit is about twice
224. 11:52as large as my risk. And when I build
225. 11:57that up for myself and tick it off
226. 12:00again, tick it off, ah, all evidence
227. 12:05provided that my idea can now be put
228. 12:08into practice, then I have an advantage
229. 12:12in swing trading. And now I'm giving
230. 12:15you a really great tip. Try doing the
231. 12:18whole thing with stocks. Do it, for
232. 12:22example, with stocks in the
233. 12:24corresponding sectors, and you will
234. 12:28realize, wow, this is an idea, a
235. 12:31concept that is not just somehow
236. 12:34handled technically, but provides me
237. 12:37with far more input to really get
238. 12:40started very easily in swing trading as
239. 12:44a beginner. I hope you liked this idea,
240. 12:49and you must of course determine the
241. 12:51key figures for yourself so that you
242. 12:54don't take any unnecessary risks, and
243. 12:56have the patience to wait for good
244. 12:58entries. And always check again, does
245. 13:02this go hand in hand with the idea of
246. 13:04the major market participants. I hope
247. 13:08you enjoyed it and I wish you a lot of
248. 13:10fun getting started with this concept.