Die Größte Chance Des Jahrzehnts Ist Jetzt Da! (Mein Plan) — Transcript

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1. 0:00It is the end of October 2026, and in a
2. 0:03few weeks, the next IPO is coming up
3. 0:05that could overshadow everything else.
4. 0:08And yes, I told you exactly the same
5. 0:11thing about SpaceX in June, but this
6. 0:14time it is even bigger. Anthropic, the
7. 0:18company behind the AI Claude, is soon
8. 0:20going public on the Nasdaq under the
9. 0:22ticker symbol ANT. A valuation of up to
10. 0:25$ 2 trillion is being discussed. This
11. 0:28would instantly make Anthropic one of
12. 0:30the ten most valuable publicly traded
13. 0:33companies in the world, more valuable
14. 0:36than Tesla or Meta, and that for a
15. 0:38company that is only 5 years old. Back
16. 0:41in June, I told you about SpaceX in one
17. 0:44of my most popular videos.
18. 0:46Fundamentally, the stock is massively
19. 0:48overvalued. In the short term, the
20. 0:50price can still rise due to hype and
21. 0:52index buying, but as soon as the
22. 0:54insider valves open, selling pressure
23. 0:56will follow. And that is exactly what
24. 0:59happened. The offering price was $ 135.
25. 1:03Only four days later, the all-time high
26. 1:05was reached at around $ 225. After that
27. 1:08, it went steeply downhill, in July
28. 1:10even falling below the offering price,
29. 1:13at times about 50%below the high. Today
30. 1:16the stock is back just above the
31. 1:19offering price, but anyone who bought
32. 1:21at the high is still down about 35%.
33. 1:25And it is with this lens that we are
34. 1:27looking at Anthropic today to try and
35. 1:30provide a forecast. But here comes the
36. 1:33twist. The figures in Anthropic's
37. 1:36filing are partly so strong that even I
38. 1:38had to look twice, and at the same time
39. 1:41, it shows a loss of over $ 80 billion
40. 1:43in just 6 months. So is this valuation
41. 1:47even justified, and should one buy or
42. 1:49rather keep their hands off it? We will
43. 1:52clarify these questions today. And in
44. 1:54addition, a bizarre detail is hidden in
45. 1:57the Anthropic filing. A single share
46. 1:59will hold the majority of voting rights
47. 2:02in this trillion-dollar corporation in
48. 2:04the future. I will show you what is
49. 2:06behind this at the end of this video.
50. 2:08Your time is valuable. Let's get
51. 2:10started. But as always, a quick note in
52. 2:17advance: this video is for information
53. 2:19purposes only and reflects my personal
54. 2:21assessment; it is not investment advice
55. 2:23and not a recommendation to buy or sell
56. 2:25. So, everyone knows ChatGPT, and you
57. 2:27probably do too. Claude, on the other
58. 2:30hand, is surprisingly unknown to many,
59. 2:33yet Anthropic is valued higher today
60. 2:35than OpenAI. The reason? Anthropic is
61. 2:38not a chatbot for private individuals,
62. 2:40but at its core, an infrastructure
63. 2:42provider for companies. Companies
64. 2:44integrate Claude into their own
65. 2:46software and pay per usage. According
66. 2:49to the prospectus, there are over
67. 2:5014,000 corporate customers. About 250
68. 2:52of them each pay more than $ 10 million
69. 2:55a year. On top of that, there is Claude
70. 2:58Code, an AI programmer that takes over
71. 3:00entire tasks from developers and is
72. 3:02currently the absolute growth engine.
73. 3:05Subscriptions for private users, the
74. 3:07part you and I know, are financially
75. 3:09the smallest building block. But now it
76. 3:12gets crazy. Thanks to the S-1 filing,
77. 3:14we have audited figures for the first
78. 3:16time. '23 41 million dollars in revenue
79. 3:21, 2024 386 million, and 2025 then the
80. 3:24first time in the billion-dollar range,
81. 3:28meaning 4.6 billion, and in the first
82. 3:32half of 2026 alone 16.3 billion—a
83. 3:35plus of around 1,300%, or a 13-fold
84. 3:38increase. In the third quarter,
85. 3:41according to reports from an investor
86. 3:44meeting, it was supposedly even 16.8
87. 3:46billion in a single quarter, and
88. 3:48existing customers are paying about
89. 3:50nine times as much today as they were a
90. 3:53year ago. I have never seen anything
91. 3:56like this at any software company in
92. 3:58the world before, and for a company
93. 4:00that has grown 12 to 13-fold in such a
94. 4:02short time and is being watched by half
95. 4:05the financial world, the stock will in
96. 4:07my opinion be extremely volatile. Large
97. 4:10price jumps and deep red candles seem
98. 4:13very likely to me here, and a lot of
99. 4:15news from the US reaches us in the
100. 4:17middle of the night. And that is
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113. 4:48first 4 months, and after that
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120. 5:06you deposit just € 1 within 10 days.
121. 5:10There will of course also be a
122. 5:12retirement provision pot, but more on
123. 5:14that in the near future. But let's get
124. 5:17to the catch now. As you know, revenue
125. 5:19is not the same as profit. 80.7 billion
126. 5:22dollars net loss in 6 months, one of
127. 5:25the largest semi-annual losses in
128. 5:27history, seems absolutely daunting at
129. 5:30first, but 72.4 billion of that is a
130. 5:33purely accounting position. Enphropic
131. 5:36financed itself through convertible
132. 5:38bonds, and because its own valuation
133. 5:40exploded, these papers became
134. 5:42increasingly expensive on the balance
135. 5:44sheet. Operationally, Enphropic
136. 5:46actually made a profit for the first
137. 5:48time in the second quarter, totaling
138. 5:51974 million dollars. But the real catch
139. 5:54is the computing power. Enphropic has
140. 5:57committed at least 518 billion dollars
141. 6:00for cloud and data centers over the
142. 6:02next 10 years. One of the suppliers is,
143. 6:06of all things, SpaceX with 3.1 billion
144. 6:09dollars per month. So if growth
145. 6:11flattens out, these bills will still
146. 6:14remain. Undic itself warns that the
147. 6:17dispute with the US Department of
148. 6:19Defense could lead to significant
149. 6:20revenue losses. So, are 2 trillion
150. 6:23realistic for the IPO? Let's just do
151. 6:26the math. If you take the 16.8 billion
152. 6:29quarterly revenue times four, we’re
153. 6:31at about 67 billion a year. 2 trillion
154. 6:34is therefore about 30 times the revenue
155. 6:37. For SpaceX, it was 94 times. So it
156. 6:41sounds cheap at first, but let's do the
157. 6:43counter-calculation. If you want a 10%
158. 6:47annual return, Anthropic must be worth
159. 6:49about 5.2 trillion in 10 years. With a
160. 6:53generous P/E ratio of 25, that requires
161. 6:56over 200 billion in profit at a 25%
162. 7:00margin, or about 830 billion dollars in
163. 7:03revenue. About as much as Apple and
164. 7:06Microsoft generate together today. For
165. 7:09that, Anthropic would need to grow by
166. 7:12about 30%per year for 10 years. Not
167. 7:15impossible, but in my opinion, a
168. 7:17near-perfect trajectory is already
169. 7:20priced in. But as with SpaceX, there
170. 7:23are two levers here that everyone
171. 7:25should know. Only this time, they work
172. 7:28somewhat differently. First, the index
173. 7:31effect. Thanks to the fast-entry rule,
174. 7:34Anthropic could be added to the Nasdaq
175. 7:36100 after about 15 trading days. If you
176. 7:39have a Nasdaq ETF, you'll be buying it
177. 7:41automatically soon. But SpaceX showed
178. 7:44that weighting is based on the
179. 7:47free-float. So the weight was under 1%,
180. 7:50and the stock fell by nearly 6%on the
181. 7:52day of inclusion. And second—and this
182. 7:55is what I find most exciting—the
183. 7:57lock-ups. 180-day lock-up periods are
184. 8:00standard. At Anthropic, however,
185. 8:02certain insiders are allowed to sell on
186. 8:05the very first trading day. After that,
187. 8:08valves open after 27, 48, 62, and 76
188. 8:12days. And unlike at SpaceX, existing
189. 8:15shareholders are also selling directly
190. 8:17in the IPO. So the selling pressure
191. 8:20doesn't just start weeks later like
192. 8:22with SpaceX; it begins on day one and
193. 8:25then rolls on every few weeks. But now
194. 8:29let's get to the promised detail that
195. 8:31many overlook: the seven founders
196. 8:33jointly control exactly one Class F
197. 8:36share, and this one share holds 50.1%of
198. 8:38all voting rights, no matter how many
199. 8:41new shares Anthropic issues in the
200. 8:43future. In addition, Anthropic is a
201. 8:47so-called Public Benefit Corporation.
202. 8:50In plain terms, this means management
203. 8:52can deliberately forgo profit if it
204. 8:54serves the common good instead. Your
205. 8:57interests as a shareholder are then
206. 8:59just one of several that are weighed
207. 9:01against each other. And every time the
208. 9:04price rises by another 50%, up to 2%of
209. 9:07the shares can go to an in-house
210. 9:09foundation. In its own prospectus,
211. 9:12Anthropic even writes that this
212. 9:14structure could harm the stock price.
213. 9:17There is currently no fixed date for
214. 9:20the IPO. According to reports, the
215. 9:22roadshow starts on the 9th. Of November
216. 9:25. The first trading day could be before
217. 9:27Thanksgiving. And on the day itself,
218. 9:30there is no fixed time. The US stock
219. 9:32market opens at 3:30 PM our time. But
220. 9:36with an IPO like this, I would expect
221. 9:38the first price to be set between 5 and
222. 9:407 PM. And then there’s also the
223. 9:44so-called FOMO, meaning the Fear of
224. 9:46Missing Out. You will hear about this
225. 9:49IPO everywhere over the coming weeks.
226. 9:52According to Bloomberg, a 66-year-old
227. 9:54retiree in the US even supposedly
228. 9:56opened accounts with eight brokers to
229. 9:58get as many shares as possible at the
230. 10:01start. However, I have learned over the
231. 10:04years that when the general public
232. 10:06hears about something, the big move is
233. 10:08usually already over and you should
234. 10:10probably keep your hands off it. But
235. 10:12before I tell you how I’m going to
236. 10:14act, I want to hear from you: what do
237. 10:17you think, is a $ 2 trillion valuation
238. 10:19for Enhropic justified, or are we
239. 10:21seeing the mother of all AI bubbles
240. 10:23here? Feel free to write it in the
241. 10:25comments. In my opinion, Enhropic is
242. 10:28fundamentally the strongest company to
243. 10:30go public in years. Real growth, real
244. 10:33customers, first operating profits, but
245. 10:362 trillion assumes absolute perfection.
246. 10:40Insiders are allowed to sell from day
247. 10:42one, and every few weeks the next valve
248. 10:45opens. That’s why I personally am not
249. 10:47investing for the time being. In the
250. 10:49short term, the price could certainly
251. 10:52rise due to hype and index buying, but
252. 10:54I expect it to drop afterwards,
253. 10:56especially as one valve opens after
254. 10:59another. We saw exactly this pattern
255. 11:01with SpaceX, for instance. I could be
256. 11:04wrong, of course, and there are major
257. 11:06investors who see it much more
258. 11:08optimistically, but the statistics on
259. 11:10IPOs speak volumes here. Don't forget
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