Die einzige Trading-Strategie, die ich seit 10 Jahren trade — Transcript

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1. 0:00Most trading strategies don't fail
2. 0:01because they are bad. They fail because
3. 0:03they look different every single day. On
4. 0:05Monday you trade a breakout, Tuesday
5. 0:06some divergence, Wednesday maybe an
6. 0:08order block, and by Friday, you don't
7. 0:10even know why you were in any of those
8. 0:12trades. The strategy I've been using to
9. 0:14trade the Nasdaq for over 10 years,
10. 0:15however, looks the same every day. A
11. 0:17zone, a Fibo, and a signal—that's all
12. 0:19there is to it. That is exactly why it's
13. 0:22so boring, and that is why it's still
14. 0:23around. Today I'm going to show you
15. 0:25three things. First, the zones where the
16. 0:27Nasdaq turns. Second, how you can use
17. 0:29the Fibo to narrow down your entry and
18. 0:31stop to just a few points, and third,
19. 0:33the momentum signal that tells you when
20. 0:35to get in and, more importantly, when to
21. 0:37stay out. And at the very end, I'll show
22. 0:39you a market phase where the strategy
23. 0:41naturally loses on a regular basis. You
24. 0:43should definitely know about that before
25. 0:44you even make your first trade with it.
26. 0:47I've been trading the Nasdaq and the DAX
27. 0:48for over 10 years on a rules-based
28. 0:50system with documented performance, and
29. 0:51the longer I do it, the less clutter I
30. 0:53have on my chart.
31. 0:54And if you want to take this with you
32. 0:55today, feel free to subscribe to my
33. 0:57channel. Every Thursday at 4 PM, a new
34. 0:59video comes out here. Always using the
35. 1:01same strategies, but always covering a
36. 1:03different problem or a different market
37. 1:05. But let's dive right in. Before I
38. 1:08explain the strategy, I'll briefly show
39. 1:10you what it does so you know if the next
40. 1:1210 minutes are worth your time. This
41. 1:14right here is the Nasdaq. This year, the
42. 1:16same strategy every day, and as you can
43. 1:18see, not every month is green—that's
44. 1:20just part of it. The strategy doesn't
45. 1:22win every day, nor does it win every
46. 1:24trade. It wins over the course of many
47. 1:26trades, and that is the part that most
48. 1:27people simply can't handle.
49. 1:29I'll show you exactly how it works now,
50. 1:31but first the brief concept behind it,
51. 1:33then the three building blocks, and then
52. 1:35three of my trades. One of them, for
53. 1:36example, didn't work out, and we'll take
54. 1:38a closer look at that one. But briefly,
55. 1:40here is the concept behind it before we
56. 1:42head over to the chart. Most strategies
57. 1:43give you a signal regardless of where
58. 1:45the price currently is. RSI below 30 buy
59. 1:47, candle closes above the high buy. But
60. 1:50the signal doesn't care where the market
61. 1:52is at that moment, because it only knows
62. 1:54its own formula. For me, it's the other
63. 1:56way around.
64. 1:58Only when the price is in a zone where
65. 2:00it has turned before do I even look for
66. 2:01an entry.
67. 2:03So, first the location, and then the
68. 2:05signal. But that also means that looking
69. 2:07at the same zone every day does not mean
70. 2:10trading every day. So you look at the
71. 2:12same thing every day, but you don't get
72. 2:14the same thing every day.
73. 2:16And on days when the setup is not there
74. 2:18, you simply do nothing.
75. 2:19That is also perfectly fine. So, what
76. 2:22should you be able to do after this
77. 2:23video? Three things. You know where to
78. 2:25look—not at the whole chart, but only at
79. 2:28the zone. You know where your stop is
80. 2:30before you enter, specifically at a
81. 2:31point on the chart and not based on some
82. 2:33feeling. You know when to do nothing,
83. 2:36and most people skip the third point
84. 2:38anyway, which is exactly where most of
85. 2:40it is lost. Most of the money is lost
86. 2:42right there. But you don't need a full
87. 2:43chart for that. One zone, one Fibo, and
88. 2:46a momentum indicator. That’s all I’ve
89. 2:48been using for over 10 years. And now I
90. 2:50will go through it with you in three
91. 2:51steps: where you enter, where your stop
92. 2:53belongs, and where you exit. And
93. 2:55afterwards, we’ll take a look at the
94. 2:56whole thing on my chart.
95. 2:58Step number 1, that is the zone. Take a
96. 3:00look at where the Nasdaq or how the
97. 3:01Nasdaq is running right now. Not in
98. 3:03detail, just the form. It doesn't just
99. 3:05run anywhere; it runs from zone to zone
100. 3:08.
101. 3:09For me, a zone is an area where the
102. 3:10price has turned before.
103. 3:12So not a single price, but an area.
104. 3:15Orders are there, stops are there,
105. 3:16something is happening there, liquidity
106. 3:19is there, and I simply don't trade
107. 3:20between them. Between the zones is no
108. 3:22man's land. Every breakout looks good
109. 3:25there and every candle could be a signal
110. 3:27. And that is exactly where most
111. 3:28accounts get ruined. So I wait until the
112. 3:31price is at the zone. I do nothing
113. 3:32before that, and I mean that literally.
114. 3:34Yes, look at the chart, set an alarm at
115. 3:36the zone, done. And if this bit about
116. 3:38the zones helped you, then this is
117. 3:40exactly the type of video that comes out
118. 3:42here every Thursday. Step number 2, the
119. 3:44price is at the zone and turns. And now
120. 3:46it usually does the same thing. An
121. 3:48initial move up, then a pullback, and I
122. 3:51want to enter into that pullback—not the
123. 3:54first move, which you’ll miss anyway,
124. 3:56but into the pullback. But so I don't
125. 3:59have to guess where the pullback ends, I
126. 4:01apply the Fibo now. Yes, so from the low
127. 4:03of the move to the high. 38, 50, 618.
128. 4:07Those are my three candidates for the
129. 4:08entry, and I don't need any more lines
130. 4:10for that. And the most important thing
131. 4:12about the Fibo is actually the stop. For
132. 4:14me, it is always a bit below the low of
133. 4:16the movement, meaning below the zero
134. 4:17point. Why? Because the trade is wrong.
135. 4:20If the price goes below that, then the
136. 4:22zone didn't hold, and I want out. At a
137. 4:24point I knew beforehand, not based on
138. 4:27some feeling. Very important. And the
139. 4:29target, that is the next zone. That
140. 4:31results in the risk-reward ratio, not
141. 4:33the other way around. Just so you've
142. 4:35seen the math: you only need every third
143. 4:38trade to work out, then you break even,
144. 4:40and everything above that is profit.
145. 4:43That’s why I can afford the losers here
146. 4:45. Step number three is: zone and Fibo
147. 4:47tell me where.
148. 4:49But what they can't tell me is when. For
149. 4:51that, I only run one indicator under the
150. 4:54chart. I call it AI. At its core, it's a
151. 4:57stochastic momentum index, so nothing
152. 4:59secret, just set up cleanly. And it
153. 5:01shows me whether the movement currently
154. 5:03has strength or not. And the rule is
155. 5:05relatively simple. The price is in the
156. 5:07Fibo at the black line, it crosses the
157. 5:09red one from bottom to top in the lower
158. 5:12area, and then I go long. And if it
159. 5:14doesn't cross, I simply don't enter.
160. 5:16Even if the price is perfectly in the
161. 5:18Fibo, even if it feels right, no cross,
162. 5:20no trade.
163. 5:21And this is the point where many say, "
164. 5:23Yes, but it looked so good."
165. 5:25Yes, it looked good, but it wasn't a
166. 5:27signal. And taking that difference
167. 5:29seriously is probably the main reason
168. 5:30why the strategy has worked for 10 years
169. 5:32. And those are the three components.
170. 5:34That sounds simple on paper, right? But
171. 5:36let's look at how it all looks on the
172. 5:39chart. So, a first example: this is the
173. 5:41Nasdaq hourly chart in January. The
174. 5:43price comes from below here, from 24
175. 5:47from 24,600 and runs up to almost 25,900
176. 5:50.
177. 5:52That is my impulse. I apply the Fibo
178. 5:54there, from the low to the high. And
179. 5:57then I do what very few do on the chart
180. 5:59. Close the chart. I set an alarm at the
181. 6:0262 level and do something else. I don't
182. 6:05have to be there as long as nothing is
183. 6:07happening. And at some point, the alarm
184. 6:09goes off. And now I take a look. The
185. 6:11price has retraced, exactly into the
186. 6:13area between 38 and 62.
187. 6:15And down here, the black line crosses
188. 6:17the red one in the lower area. And that
189. 6:19is my entry. The stop goes below the low
190. 6:22of the impulse, because the target is
191. 6:24the old high. That's all there is to
192. 6:26management. And then the price doesn't
193. 6:28just run straight. It twitches, retests
194. 6:31the level, and then runs to the target.
195. 6:33That's it then. Three things in the
196. 6:35right order. The second example half a
197. 6:38year later, in June. Same rule: impulse
198. 6:40high, add Fibo, alarm at the level,
199. 6:42close the chart. The alarm triggers. The
200. 6:45price comes back and sits at the 62 Fibo
201. 6:47level.
202. 6:48Below, the black line crosses into the
203. 6:50red, stop at the low. Aim for the old
204. 6:53high. But this one was a bit tougher,
205. 6:55because the price hung around the Fibo
206. 6:57for two days, went back toward the stop
207. 6:58, and then finally ran to the target.
208. 7:00And that is actually what I'm getting at
209. 7:02.
210. 7:03It is the same process as the last trade
211. 7:05: the impulse, pullback, and Fibo cross
212. 7:08on the short side.
213. 7:09Exactly mirrored.
214. 7:11That's why it's so boring and why I can
215. 7:13just do it every day.
216. 7:14And now the one you don't see in most
217. 7:17videos, this was a trade from March.
218. 7:20Everything fit perfectly. Impulse,
219. 7:22pullback, Fibo, crossing. I got in, and
220. 7:24the price went through the stop and then
221. 7:27another 700 points further down.
222. 7:29For me, that loss was one R, nothing
223. 7:31more, because the stop was where it
224. 7:33belonged and not where it would have
225. 7:35just been convenient for me. And things
226. 7:37like that happen regularly with this
227. 7:39strategy. It doesn't win every trade,
228. 7:41but it wins over many trades, and for
229. 7:43that, every single loser must remain
230. 7:44small. The stop is what ensures that you
231. 7:47are still in the game tomorrow. Now for
232. 7:49the part I promised you at the beginning
233. 7:50: the phase in which the strategy
234. 7:52regularly loses. Those are days when the
235. 7:54market doesn't make a pullback.
236. 7:55Decisions, big numbers, something
237. 7:57political. The price hits the zone, goes
238. 8:00through, and simply doesn't come back.
239. 8:02There is no Fibo there because there are
240. 8:03simply no pullbacks. There might be a
241. 8:05crossing that is already wrong two
242. 8:07candles later, and that's where people
243. 8:09get stopped out who actually saw the
244. 8:11setup correctly. My answer to that is
245. 8:13unspectacular. On such days, I simply
246. 8:16don't trade the strategy. I look at it
247. 8:18and just leave it be. And that is
248. 8:21probably the real reason why this
249. 8:22strategy has lasted for 10 years. Not
250. 8:25the zone, not the Fibo, but the days on
251. 8:27which I just didn't do anything. So,
252. 8:30let's briefly summarize everything. The
253. 8:32zone tells you where to look. The Fibo
254. 8:34tells you where to enter and where the
255. 8:36stop belongs. And the signal tells you
256. 8:38when and when not to. That's all there
257. 8:40is to it. In these 10 years, I've gone
258. 8:42through just about every indicator that
259. 8:43was trendy at some point, and I've ended
260. 8:45up right back here every time. But what
261. 8:47usually gets lost in the process is that
262. 8:49the strategy is the smaller part. The
263. 8:50bigger part is keeping your hands off
264. 8:52when there is no setup. And you don't
265. 8:54learn that from a video; you learn that
266. 8:55on the chart, a little bit every day.
267. 8:57And if you want to learn these three
268. 8:59building blocks step-by-step with my
269. 9:01settings, the rules, significantly more
270. 9:02examples on the chart, and above all
271. 9:04live trading, then feel free to check
272. 9:06out my video training. The link is down
273. 9:08here in the description, and if you want
274. 9:09to exchange ideas with people who trade
275. 9:11the same way, then feel free to join my
276. 9:13Selfmade Trader Community. I have one
277. 9:14more question for you. The strategy is
278. 9:16currently running for me in the Nasdaq
279. 9:18and the DAX; let me know in the comments
280. 9:19which market you would like to test it
281. 9:20in. The most frequent answer will then
282. 9:22become the next video. And if this video
283. 9:24was helpful to you, then feel free to
284. 9:25leave a thumbs up and subscribe to the
285. 9:27channel. The next video comes out here
286. 9:29every Thursday at 4 PM.