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Demography and Vital statistics — Transcript

by Public Health Videos Dr Sandheep · 4,145 words · 659 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:02good morning student
0:05today's lecture is on demography and
0:07vital statistics at the end of this
0:11session students should be able to
0:14define demography he explained
0:18demographic transition over the years
0:22explain about population growth describe
0:28vital statistics list and define common
0:32indicators used as vital statistics what
0:38is demography demography is the
0:41scientific study of human population it
0:45focuses its attention on three readily
0:49observable human phenomena changes in
0:53population size the composition of the
0:58population and the distribution of
1:01population in space changes in
1:05population size means can be population
1:08growth or decline of population
1:10composition of the population in terms
1:13of age gender and the socio demographic
1:17variables distribution of population in
1:22space demography deals with a five
1:29demographic processes
1:32what are they these five demographic
1:37consists of fertility mortality marriage
1:42migration and a social mobility so
1:48fertility can affect population growth
1:51mortality can affect population growth
1:54marriage can affect population growth
1:58migration migration can be emigration of
2:03immigration emigration means going out
2:06of the country emigration means like
2:09immigrant workers coming to our
2:13country social mobility moving from one
2:17city to another based on the social
2:20condition and industrial industries and
2:25business availability better quality of
2:28life in some cities compared to another
2:34international migration can also affect
2:37the progression okay these are the
2:39demographic processes demographic
2:45processes are continuously at work
2:48within a population and it determines
2:52size of population as all of us know a
2:56fertility is higher population grows if
3:00mortality is higher oblation declines
3:04okay migration also can affect the
3:09population if so many people are
3:13emigrating out of the country so
3:16population declines so many people are
3:20immigrating to the country immigrant
3:25labor labor is coming to the country so
3:28population increase make that it can
3:32affect size of population composition of
3:35population distribution of population
3:41some cities will have more immigrant
3:45workers more industries out there so
3:48population will be higher oblation
3:51density will be higher in that area we
3:53will see what is population density in
3:55coming slides demography can be divided
4:02into study of structure or population of
4:06dynamism of population structure of
4:09population is studied at a point of time
4:12dynamism is studied for a period of time
4:16structure of population include status
4:20of population based on age sex education
4:25level income
4:27family urbanization public utilities
4:33ethnicity and on its a structure of
4:38population based on all these parameters
4:42dynamism of population okay that how the
4:46population changes okay during a period
4:50of time that includes vital statistics
4:56belts natality births can lead to
5:00population growth fertility can lead to
5:03population growth deaths of mortality
5:06can lead to population decline the
5:10reproduction can lead to population
5:12growth
5:13marital status also can influence
5:15population growth okay migration like
5:18immigration people are going out of the
5:22country immigration people are coming to
5:25this country communities are travellish
5:28from one country to another okay this
5:32whole can affect the dynamism of
5:35population demographic studies structure
5:40of population and dynamism of population
5:45facts about demography population growth
5:48depends on two factors births and the
5:54immigration bills and immigration lead
5:57to population increase death said
6:00emigration lead to decrease in
6:03population that's a main thing very easy
6:06to remember important indicators of
6:10birth of fertility a cold birth rate and
6:14a fertility rate number of births okay
6:20per population per be a basic code birth
6:24rate okay fertility rate is related to
6:28fertility of population that we'll
6:31discuss later demography encompasses the
6:35study of size structure and
6:38distribution of population and spatial
6:41changes in population that's dynamism
6:45okay
6:47structural publishin distribution of
6:51population and special changes of
6:54dynamism in response to time birth
6:58migration aging and death
7:05the term demographic transition it means
7:09there is change in the population over
7:13the years during the first half of the
7:1620th century demographers conceived the
7:19notion of demographic transition
7:24demographic transition illustrates
7:26population growth in terms of
7:29discrepancies and changes in to crude
7:33vital rates like mortality and fertility
7:37okay he grows migration there is a
7:41population change in population based on
7:46mortality and fertility different
7:49countries show different population
7:52growth demographic transition
7:59illustrates population growth in terms
8:02of changes in mortality and fertility
8:07this a phenomenon and theory which are
8:11averse to the historical shift from high
8:15birth rate and high death rate in
8:17society with a minimal technology
8:20minimal education especially of women
8:23and minimal economic development to low
8:30birth rate and low death rate earlier it
8:33was high birthrate and high death rate
8:36okay that was Cindy when technology
8:41education and economic development was
8:43less now it is low birth rate and low
8:48death rate in societies with advanced
8:50technology education
8:52economic term so some countries show the
8:56transition between high birthrate high
9:01death rate to low birth rate low death
9:05rate okay so it can be plotted different
9:10countries show different type of
9:12demographic demographic transition model
9:17is a graph that represents population
9:21change over time okay so there are
9:25different stages high stationary early
9:28expanding late expanding low stationary
9:32and a declining phase high stationary
9:37phase means we can understand high
9:39stationary birthrate is also very high
9:43death rate is also very hard okay so
9:47population of the main stationary so
9:50high birth rate high death rate but
9:54population is stationary that's high
9:57stationary early expanding means
10:00population is expanding that's why here
10:03the expanding red okay belt rate remains
10:10high but death rate came down okay birth
10:15rate remains high but death rate came
10:19down so population growth okay
10:23understood
10:23so high stationary phase which country
10:27shows that you know Burkina Faso and a
10:31chart these are the underdeveloped
10:33countries from Africa they show high
10:37stationary phase birth rate is very high
10:39death rate is also very high so
10:42population of the means say a stationary
10:45no growth second phase ba Libya Nigeria
10:50and India birth rate is still very high
10:55but the threat is coming down so it is
10:59known as yearly expanding phase so
11:02population is expanding
11:04very rapid increase in population okay
11:10next phase is late expanding their what
11:14is a difference you know death rate
11:16already came down now birth rate is
11:20falling
11:21okay now birth rate is falling death
11:24rate is also falling so operation is
11:28still increasing because birth rate is
11:31higher than death rate so population is
11:34still increasing
11:36so Argentina and China are in late
11:39expanding phase Stage three then comes
11:44low stationary what is that birth rate
11:49also low death rate also low both the
11:53hormones same level birth rate is also
11:57low death rate is also low both are at
12:00the same level so their population
12:02growth remains stationary that is known
12:06as low stationary why it is low
12:09stationary birth rate is low death rate
12:11is low the population is stationary that
12:15is not a stageful USA and UK are in that
12:21phase okay now the last phase it's very
12:26interesting it's a known as declining
12:28phase declining phase means fault
12:32the threat is low birth rate is low but
12:36birth rate is lower than death threat so
12:41population is going down slow decreases
12:46there Japan and Sudan having that phase
12:51okay understood demographic transition
12:56now world population growth world
13:01population growth is unprecedented
13:05population growth of modern times
13:07heightens the interest in the notion of
13:11population doubling time so population
13:15growth is predicted a story
13:18based on a law of seventy there is a law
13:23of seventy based on that world
13:26population is projected okay calculation
13:30of population doubling time is
13:32facilitated by law awesome indeed if a
13:36population is growing at a constant rate
13:39of 1% per year okay it can be expected
13:46to double the population approximately
13:50every 70 years if the population growth
13:55rate is at 1% per year population
14:00doubles at the age of a every 70 years
14:05if the rate of growth is 2% then
14:09population doubling time is 35 years
14:14that is 70 divided by 2 it is 35 years
14:22TR Malthus she was the first person to
14:28draw widespread attention to the two
14:31components of natural increase of
14:34population like birth and death like
14:38fertility and mortality okay he found
14:42out that these two can affect the
14:45population population explosion discount
14:52only to Malthus prediction for
14:56population growth was in an exponential
15:01rate okay world population was less than
15:061 billion in 1800 but became 6 billion
15:12by the end of the 20th century okay why
15:21it happened why Malthus was unable to
15:24foresee the population explosion
15:26population explosion is mentioned as
15:30population bomb
15:33in some books at assembly population
15:38growth is the increase in number of
15:40individuals in a population global human
15:46population growth abounds to around 83
15:51million annually or 1.1 percent per year
15:57for every year this 83 million is the
16:01increase okay
16:05the global population has grown from
16:08less than 1 billion in 1800 to seven
16:11point six one six billion in 2008 okay
16:17this expected to grow keep growing and
16:21he estimates have put the total
16:23population at eight point six billion by
16:29mid-2013 the nine point eight billion by
16:35mid-2015 and eleven point two billion by
16:412100 that sub production made okay yet
16:47all day to three million annually it is
16:50increasing okay so this world population
16:57growth is shown as a diagram so it shows
17:02that 1018 hundred it was less than 1
17:11billion and it'll age around seven
17:15billion in 2018 okay so it's showing the
17:24production population growth if if we
17:29are going to the different countries
17:32okay China is the most populated country
17:36in the world in the next 50 years India
17:39will have more people than China Asia
17:43has over one third of the
17:46Yelp's population okay now we'll go to
17:49the factors that influence population
17:52growth and a factors which may have
17:55resulted in population explosion okay
17:59earlier slide we were we were telling
18:02about population explosion the major
18:05factors which may have led to a
18:08population explosion of advances in
18:12modern medicine and hygiene okay
18:16advances in modern medicine development
18:19of new antibiotics and developed works
18:22and are various hygienic measures all
18:25this reduced the death rate okay
18:29education of literacy also influences
18:33population okay especially female
18:36literacy rate it is having an English
18:38solution those countries where education
18:42level is higher female literacy is
18:45higher population growth is slower okay
18:50industrialization and urbanization
18:53affects population growth economic
18:58development effects population
19:01government policies on family planning
19:04some countries are very strict on family
19:06planning policies their population
19:09growth is controlled some countries are
19:12lenient on family planning their
19:14population growth is higher the role of
19:17women in society like gender equality
19:22those countries where gender equality is
19:26there the population growth is
19:29controlled population growth is not in
19:32an exponential rate so now we will go to
19:39be go through the next concept
19:42population density population density is
19:48the number of people occupying an area
19:51of that number of people who live per
19:54square kilometer okay this population
19:58we are going to the population and a
20:02publishable area and population density
20:04of different states in Malaysia it shows
20:08that Federal Territory of Colombo is
20:14having a population of 1.6 million
20:20according to the census of 2010 1.6
20:24million is the population okay and the
20:28area in kilometer is only 243 km/h
20:35Federal Territory of core number so we
20:41can calculate that six thousand eight
20:44hundred and ninety-one people stay per
20:48one square kilometre area so the
20:52population density is six thousand eight
20:55hundred and ninety one that is very high
20:58in Federal Territory of kala number the
21:03next is penang penang also having 1.5
21:08million population and the area is 1048
21:14square kilometer so population density
21:19is around 1500 people are living per
21:24square kilometer now we will see how the
21:29population density in parag parag state
21:33is having 2.2 million 2.2 million
21:39population per 20 1035 square kilometer
21:46area so population densities 110 people
21:51per square kilometer okay so now you
21:57understood what is population density
22:00number of people occupying a unit area
22:04unit area will be square kilometer okay
22:11middle population median population is
22:14the estimate of resident population on
22:181st July of a given calendar year okay
22:23that's known as middle population if you
22:26are going to literature journal article
22:30and books they will mention about
22:32mid-year population of 2015 like that so
22:37the media population of 2015 is
22:40calculated by taking nd our estimate of
22:452014 and hindi ragini estimate of 2015
22:50and take average of it so how it is
22:53calculated it is calculated as an
22:56average of successive India estimates if
23:01you want to calculate 2019 media
23:04population you take India population of
23:082018 India population of 2019 and take
23:13average of that okay that's one easier
23:17way to calc next is about the concept of
23:22population pyramid or age sex pyramid
23:27okay it's experiment of population
23:30pyramid is used to demonstrate the
23:34demographic structure of the Society of
23:37population so it is having an x axis and
23:41y axis x axis shows the number of big
23:46men and men towards both side from the
23:50center ok y axis shows age group of
23:55individuals in categories ok age and the
24:00number of females are traditionally
24:02plotted on the right side and age and
24:07the number of females males are plotted
24:12on the left side of the population
24:14pyramid now we will see how it is okay
24:18it shows malicious population pyramid of
24:21AIDS experiment for the year 20
24:24d x axis shows the number people okay on
24:32the right side of the graph shows number
24:35of people who are females left side of
24:40the graph shows number P number of males
24:44number people who are males okay and the
24:49y-axis shows different age categories
24:53okay I will show you one more
24:57it's experimental population government
25:00which is Berkeley our project it's a
25:03militia population pyramid for the year
25:062050 okay
25:08it also shows x-axis shows number of
25:12people the right side of the graph shows
25:15number of people who are females left
25:19side of the graph shows number of people
25:21who are males and a y-axis shows
25:23different age category in this graph the
25:27age category the interval is every four
25:31years every five years zero to four
25:35years five to nine ten to fourteen like
25:38that okay
25:41so by looking at the population pyramid
25:44of AIDS experiment we can know which age
25:48group is more and which gender is more
25:53okay this age sex pyramid of population
26:03pyramid of Malaysia in 2015 for
26:08different ethnic groups by looking at
26:10this we can say which age group is more
26:14okay for bumiputra or male population it
26:19is seeing that showing that inner
26:22generation is more 0 to 4 up to 20 to 24
26:28the population size is more for
26:31brahma-bhutah then it is tapering
26:35towards the top okay
26:38SHINee's some old look lower then
26:42elderly population is lower among
26:46Chinese population number of children of
26:48lower number of adult population maybe
26:52if you take 15 to 19 to 35 to 39 more
26:58number of people are there in that age
27:01group its experiment of a population
27:08pyramid of Indian also shows a most
27:11children are lower than bumiputra
27:13but adult population is higher so 10 to
27:1714 to 32 34 population is higher so as
27:23years advances population pyramid will
27:27change the shape as more and more
27:30elderly people will be there as years
27:34advance okay by looking at the age sex
27:42pyramid of population pyramid we can we
27:46can link with the demographic transition
27:52of the country those countries where the
27:57those countries in expanding phase stage
28:001 huh expanding phase the population
28:06pyramid shows a pattern that in a
28:09generation will be more than the older
28:12generation ok stage 2 expanding slowly
28:18in a generation will become less number
28:22and for adult and the older generation
28:25will start growing okay in stage 3
28:31stationary phase growing older
28:35population and stage 4 contracting phase
28:40so it's a decreasing population it's a
28:43declining phase okay so elderly
28:46population will be more than the enough
28:49publish
28:52okay now we can go today it's experiment
28:57trend of Malaysia over the years in 1970
29:02the population is like that in the
29:06generation was more than compared to the
29:08older generation in 2000
29:12younger generation older generation
29:15started growing okay more number of
29:18people in adult and above 40 year age
29:22group and in 2010 elder population was
29:28more increasing compared to 2000 so
29:32government has to look at the graphical
29:36representation of age experiment and
29:40consider more services for the geriatric
29:46problems and the geriatric care services
29:50so that's one use of its experiment we
29:53can understand the population which
29:56population subgroup need more more
30:01attention and more focus that we can
30:04understand by looking at the it's
30:05experiment now we will go through the
30:10next session or vital statistics vital
30:14statistics is accumulated data gathered
30:18on live births deaths fetal deaths
30:22marriages and divorces so these are the
30:27vital events in the community of
30:30population what are the vital events
30:33live births deaths fetal deaths marriage
30:37and divorces so vital statistics focus
30:41on white elements most common way of
30:44collecting information on these vital
30:47events is through registration of vital
30:51events okay there is an administrative
30:55system used by governments to record
30:59vital events which occur in their
31:01population so baptise
31:04register that is registered fetal death
31:07is registered marriage is registered so
31:10by going through the registration of
31:14vital events records or registration of
31:18vital events website we can we can get
31:23an idea about vital statistics common
31:28indicators used in vital statistics they
31:32have common India we'll go through the
31:34common indicators one is crude birth
31:37rate third birth rate is an annual
31:40number of live births per thousand
31:43population okay
31:46it's a coordinate and a total number of
31:48live births divided by thousand pupil
31:51thousand population divided by total
31:54number population multiplied by thousand
31:58that will give you number of births per
32:01thousand population next is general
32:07fertility rate okay
32:09general fertility rate means annual
32:13number of live births per thousand women
32:17of childbearing age group so total
32:20number of live birth divided by total
32:23number of women of childbearing age
32:26group it is often taken from 15 to 49
32:32years of age but some countries take us
32:3515 to 44 so annual number of live births
32:40per thousand women of childbearing age
32:43group how you will calculate total
32:47number of like this divided to total
32:49number of women of childbearing age
32:51group x cuarto set that will give you
32:56general fertility rate each specific
33:01fertility rate how you can calculate the
33:04age specific fertility rate annual
33:07number of live birth per thousand women
33:11in particular age group so can be 15 to
33:1619 22
33:18for 25 to 29 like that you take all the
33:22women in that age group okay
33:26then total number of live births from
33:30that age group divided by total number
33:34of women in that age group multiplied by
33:37thousand that will give you age specific
33:40fertility rates through death rate crude
33:45death rate is the annual number of
33:48deaths per 1000 population so we have to
33:53take total number of deaths divided by
33:56total number of population multiplied by
34:001000 that will give you a cool death
34:03rate infant mortality rate how it is
34:07calculated annual number of deaths of
34:10children less than one year infant means
34:14child less than one year handle number
34:18of deaths of children less than one year
34:22per thousand divers how you will
34:25calculate total number of infant deaths
34:29divided by total live births multiplied
34:33by one thousand that will give you
34:36infant mortality rate now we can see
34:42what is expectation of life or life
34:45expectancy you may have seen some
34:49countries have life expectancy verify if
34:53you take Japan it's a real life
34:56expectancies more than eighty five years
34:59malicious life expectancy is seventy
35:02four to seventy-five years okay so
35:05number of years which an individual at a
35:09given age could expect to live at
35:12percent level of mortality rates that is
35:15known as expectation of life or life
35:19expectancy now we will go through some
35:24fertility rates total fertility rate
35:28what is total fertility
35:30number of live births per women
35:35completing her reproductive life okay so
35:39reproductive ages 15 to 49 years at the
35:43end of 49 years number of libels how
35:47many live births the woman asked if her
35:52childbearing at each age reflect current
35:56age specific fertility rate okay so
36:00that's up when one calculation is there
36:04total fertility rate total number of
36:07live births a woman who completes her
36:12reproductive life at the age of 49 years
36:16total number of live births per woman if
36:20her childbearing at each age reflected
36:24current age specific fertility rate it
36:28specifically fertility rate for 15 to 19
36:31will be like that 22:24 will be like
36:37that 25 to 29 will be like that
36:41this woman women should follow the age
36:45specific fertility rate of the country
36:48okay
36:49current age specific fertility rate they
36:52should follow if they are following and
36:55the end of reproductive age group how
36:59many children how many live births she
37:03will give back - he will he will give
37:07them - how many children okay that's a
37:11total fertility rate then - - Vital
37:17Statistics figures are indicators are
37:20gross reproduction rate the net
37:23reproduction rate gross reproduction
37:27rate is the number of doctors who would
37:31be born to a woman completing her
37:35reproductive life at a current age
37:38specific fertility rate number of
37:41daughters mm total fertility
37:44means number of children a woman will
37:47have when he complete fairy for active
37:50life okay
37:52gross reproduction rate means number of
37:55daughters
37:57okay who'll be bald too a woman
38:00completing her reproductive life at a
38:03current age specific fertility rate okay
38:08net reproduction rate means okay is the
38:12expected number of daughters per newborn
38:15prospect mother many when the newborn
38:20girl is born okay
38:22according to thee according to the
38:26fertility rate of the country and
38:28according to the mortality rate of the
38:31country how many number of women child
38:35how many number of female child of
38:38daughters will be born to the currently
38:42born newly born hospital mother who may
38:46or may not survive to go through the
38:49ages of childbearing
38:51so that's a net reproduction rate so by
38:55looking at total fertility rate we can
38:58we can know how much the sufferer tilty
39:02rate of the country okay
39:04total number of live births per women
39:07when she completes a reproductive life
39:11okay if she follows each specific
39:15fertility rate grows reproduction rate
39:18means how many number of female a child
39:22or daughter will be born to a woman when
39:26she completes her reproductive life at a
39:29current each specific fertility rate net
39:35reproduction rate show means how many
39:38number of daughters will be born to a
39:41newborn girl child newborn prospective
39:45mother means newborn girl chat who may
39:48go through the mortality figures and age
39:52specific fertility rate okay when she
39:57he completes reproductive age at 49
40:02years how many girl will be born to her
40:05okay so that's a net reproduction rate
40:11now we will see some graph on crude
40:16death rate and infant mortality rate and
40:19life expectancy in militia okay
40:26crude death rate is broken lines on the
40:31left side of the graph through the trade
40:34it it was higher in 1947 and it come
40:40down to less than five cold death rate
40:47was around 20 at the time of 1947
40:51then it became less than five okay
40:56infant mortality rate it was very high
41:00it was more than hundred at the time of
41:041947 then it came down and it is around
41:11six at the time of 2007 so it is coming
41:17down that shows a better better health
41:21care system in Malaysia cold death rate
41:24came down infant mortality rate also
41:27came down now we can look at the right
41:30side of the graph
41:32life expectancy okay in 1970 life
41:38expectancy of females was slightly
41:46higher than 65 and a male it was
41:49slightly higher than 61 so slowly going
41:54out 1980 it became around both we're
42:00around 66 to 70 in 1990
42:06it became around 68 to 74 then 2000 it
42:13became 70 and 75 70 for males and 75 for
42:20females in 2010 it became around 71 72
42:27for males and 76 for females
42:32so this improvement by looking at
42:36demography we can we can understand how
42:38the health care system works in the
42:41country so right now we are finishing
42:45the demography and vital statistics okay
42:49these are the references you can google
42:53up and just look for the textbook it's
42:56available in library also and you can
43:00get data from Ministry of Health
43:02Malaysia website thank you

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