Darum habe ich verkauft! — Transcript

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1. 0:00In this video, we will talk about my
2. 0:02current performance, completely
3. 0:03transparently.
4. 0:05I'll show you my current cash position,
5. 0:08why it has risen, what I'm doing, and
6. 0:10how I'm navigating such a market.
7. 0:14I want to talk about what I expect in
8. 0:16the short term, specifically when I will
9. 0:17get back in.
10. 0:19I will show you specific assets that I
11. 0:22want to re-enter.
12. 0:24So, I think there is a lot in here.
13. 0:26Let's get started.
14. 0:28I
15. 0:34welcome you all and I hope you are doing
16. 0:36well.
17. 0:38When I told you in the video on Saturday
18. 0:40that you can find me in one place from
19. 0:43now on, everything: podcasts, videos,
20. 0:45market assessments, analyses, um, live
21. 0:47streams, webinars, voice messages, and
22. 0:49so on and so forth.
23. 0:52I surely repeated myself somewhere.
24. 0:54I was obviously hoping that many would
25. 0:57download the new app, but that so many
26. 0:59did, I can only say a heartfelt thank
27. 1:01you.
28. 1:02And as far as I can see, no one has left
29. 1:04yet, and that makes sense, too.
30. 1:07And I want to show you a few things in
31. 1:09this video right now.
32. 1:11However, I also don't want to repeat
33. 1:13myself; that is exactly the point.
34. 1:15So maybe I'll talk in the podcast this
35. 1:18week about when to re-enter such a
36. 1:20market, and maybe I'll talk on Wednesday
37. 1:23about how things are behaving in the
38. 1:25gold market and.
39. 1:27And someone who only watches the videos
40. 1:29or only listens to the podcasts will
41. 1:31rightly say: "Yes, why didn't we talk
42. 1:34about AI stocks this week?" everything
43. 1:36in one place.
44. 1:37That doesn't mean you have to listen to
45. 1:39everything, but you can see in this feed
46. 1:40everything I've done.
47. 1:43And you can pick and choose, yes, this
48. 1:45content is for me, or no, his assessment
49. 1:46of Bitcoin simply doesn't interest me.
50. 1:49So, that is why it is such a huge
51. 1:52advantage, and I sent you a very
52. 1:54specific message over the weekend, a
53. 1:56voice message, 8 minutes long with a
54. 1:59chart attached. The bear market is here
55. 2:01, concrete price targets for the stock
56. 2:03market. That's why I don't want to
57. 2:05repeat this exact point here. So yes,
58. 2:08get the app, it's absolutely free, here
59. 2:11is the link, then you can listen to the
60. 2:13voice message immediately.
61. 2:16I get very specific there, so please
62. 2:18feel free to use it.
63. 2:20I will certainly point it out for a few
64. 2:22more days because it is, if you will, my
65. 2:25life's project, and I believe that it
66. 2:27doesn't exist in this way yet.
67. 2:30Period.
68. 2:32And now, let’s first talk about the fact
69. 2:34that even I am not left unscathed by a
70. 2:37correction like the one we just saw in
71. 2:39the AI sector.
72. 2:41That’s perfectly clear.
73. 2:43That’s exactly where the returns were
74. 2:45made.
75. 2:46And that is precisely where I likely
76. 2:48didn't hit the top to say, oh, now we
77. 2:50have the fundamentals, everything that
78. 2:52was good before.
79. 2:54You can remember how the hyperscalers
80. 2:56and the chip stocks went through the
81. 2:57roof, and when did they go through the
82. 2:59roof?
83. 3:00The moment it was said, another 10
84. 3:02billion in capex, and another 10 billion
85. 3:04, and another 30 billion.
86. 3:06So, they outbid each other, and for
87. 3:08those who then made an announcement that
88. 3:10we are now going to invest even more,
89. 3:12the stock market said: "Yes, wonderful.
90. 3:14Yes, wonderful. There will be even more
91. 3:16profits in the future," and it rose and
92. 3:18rose and rose.
93. 3:20Regardless of whether we are talking
94. 3:22about the neo-clouds, like CoreWeave,
95. 3:24Iron, and so on and so forth, or the
96. 3:25chip stocks—I mean, you don't even have
97. 3:28to look at the rally of an SK Hynix—and
98. 3:30now it has completely reversed.
99. 3:33As I said, I went into detail in the
100. 3:35voice message as to why this has to be
101. 3:37the case and why that is also something
102. 3:39good for the active investor.
103. 3:41But what I mean by that is, I don't know
104. 3:42exactly. The stock market is not a
105. 3:44forecast. I don't know what will happen
106. 3:47tomorrow.
107. 3:48It is about finding advantageous
108. 3:50situations. So let’s first be fully
109. 3:53transparent, because I don’t want to
110. 3:55make a big fuss about it. Yes, I am no
111. 3:57magician.
112. 3:59I have, let’s look at it together. Yes,
113. 4:02the S&P 500 has, since the start of my
114. 4:05portfolio, there it is—I can tell you
115. 4:07all sorts of things beforehand.
116. 4:10Yes, I lived off trading, and
117. 4:12accordingly, it was profitable for
118. 4:14decades.
119. 4:16I have not experienced a losing year yet
120. 4:18.
121. 4:19Whether that is good in itself is beside
122. 4:20the point, it’s all irrelevant. It all
123. 4:22plays in the past. The Lars Erikson
124. 4:24portfolio at the Renditespezialisten.
125. 4:26That is the only one I am talking about
126. 4:28here, because it is simply the one I
127. 4:30went public with. In October 2024, the S
128. 4:34&P 500 was at 5857, and now we are at
129. 4:397580.
130. 4:42Buy and hold would have brought 30%.
131. 4:45As of Friday’s closing price, the Lars
132. 4:48Erikson portfolio is at 66.44%,
133. 4:53so about double the S&P 500.
134. 4:56I am satisfied with the outperformance.
135. 4:59Of course, it could be more, gladly, but
136. 5:01this isn’t high-activity day trading;
137. 5:03this is swing trading, position trading
138. 5:05.
139. 5:07So, I am satisfied with that, and we
140. 5:11should be about 5%off the performance
141. 5:15top.
142. 5:17Once again, it hasn't left me unscathed
143. 5:19either, and that’s what really matters.
144. 5:21My cash position is now 51.5%.
145. 5:26And I would like to show you that right
146. 5:28here. Very specifically.
147. 5:30Why 51.5%?
148. 5:33It doesn't matter if it's exactly 48%or
149. 5:3745%. It’s just that I’ve been saying
150. 5:39this over the last few months, and it’s
151. 5:40starting to sound like a mantra I keep
152. 5:42repeating. What is the deciding factor?
153. 5:43When does it become a bear market? When
154. 5:45do you have to change your mindset and
155. 5:47say, okay, corrections are no longer
156. 5:49worth buying; instead, I'll use upward
157. 5:52corrections to reduce my positions even
158. 5:54further. When is that? If you say this
159. 5:56is a bear market, what do you need for a
160. 5:58bear market? Either an S&P 500 or Nasdaq
161. 6:01100 that is sending clear sell signals.
162. 6:04From a purely chart-technical
163. 6:06perspective, we don't have that yet, but
164. 6:08at least the lights are yellow.
165. 6:11You can see that here in the Nasdaq 100
166. 6:13as well.
167. 6:14Yes, but these aren't major sell signals
168. 6:17yet. This could still turn out to be a "
169. 6:19normal" correction, in quotes. Um, for
170. 6:21that to happen, the Nasdaq would
171. 6:23actually have to fall a bit lower. What
172. 6:25else did we say? That the CapEx spending
173. 6:27of the large hyperscalers is declining?
174. 6:29That is not happening. That is exactly
175. 6:31what the market is punishing right now.
176. 6:32So the AI trade is not being unwound in
177. 6:35that regard. And what else did we say?
178. 6:37If the earnings of the hyperscalers—the
179. 6:40companies, the big cloud firms that have
180. 6:43carried the market—if they send the
181. 6:45first warning signs, if they decline, if
182. 6:48the growth is no longer there, yes, then
183. 6:51we probably have a bear market.
184. 6:53But the answer to those three questions
185. 6:55so far is no, no, and no. That doesn't
186. 6:57mean that sentiment can't change and the
187. 6:59markets can't be weaker. But the crucial
188. 7:02difference is that I consider this a
189. 7:04correction worth buying.
190. 7:07I also want to show you—I mean, 51.5%
191. 7:09cash—I want to use three examples to
192. 7:12show you, in general terms, what my
193. 7:14method is.
194. 7:15You then decide—there isn't, oh master
195. 7:18of subordinate clauses, I know, there
196. 7:21isn't just one method.
197. 7:24You can't say there is a perfect method
198. 7:26for getting in; whoever says, "I always
199. 7:28exit at the top and enter at the bottom
200. 7:30..." Do you know what they have?
201. 7:32Definitely not a portfolio they have to
202. 7:33show off. No one can do that.
203. 7:36However, there are some, for example,
204. 7:38who say, "I am consistently staying
205. 7:40invested in this AI trade."
206. 7:43They will probably be slightly in the
207. 7:44red on an annual basis if they've been
208. 7:46in it for the last two years, but still
209. 7:48in the black overall.
210. 7:51That is a different kind of speculation
211. 7:53. That’s not mine. For me, shallow
212. 7:55drawdowns are important.
213. 7:58And again, the important note, Sharpe
214. 8:00Ratio and I don't want to bore you today
215. 8:02with too many metrics regarding the
216. 8:05portfolio, but that isn't right or wrong
217. 8:07.
218. 8:09There are different methods and my
219. 8:11method, my approach, likely stems from a
220. 8:13time, or quite certainly even, when I
221. 8:16was living solely from trading as my
222. 8:18full-time profession.
223. 8:20Yes, I’m just not cold-blooded enough to
224. 8:23say a 30%price movement, I don’t care.
225. 8:27Therefore, excuse me that I, yes, I can
226. 8:29say it in German too, it doesn't matter
227. 8:30to me.
228. 8:32I don't want major fluctuations. I want
229. 8:34drawdowns that are as shallow as
230. 8:35possible.
231. 8:37Scale in and scale out. The readers of
232. 8:39the Renditespezialisten can't stand
233. 8:41hearing it anymore when I say that.
234. 8:42Scale in, scale out. What does that mean
235. 8:44? I would like to show you that using
236. 8:46three examples. And quite deliberately,
237. 8:49starting with a negative example.
238. 8:52In other words, this position was one
239. 8:55with which we didn't make any money.
240. 8:58And I'll show it to you very
241. 8:59specifically.
242. 9:01The purchase took place here on August
243. 9:0324th.
244. 9:05Maybe it's easier to see if I take out,
245. 9:08what is it? WisdomTree Uranium&Nuclear
246. 9:10Energy ETF. That means this was a trade
247. 9:13that had gone very well. Uranium stocks
248. 9:16, nuclear stocks, and so on had gone
249. 9:18very well. Then there was a large
250. 9:19consolidation.
251. 9:21We broke out of this consolidation to
252. 9:23the upside and then I wanted the small
253. 9:24pullback—where are we here?
254. 9:27So exactly on August 24th.
255. 9:29I said, okay, a small pullback here, now
256. 9:32back up, now I'm happy to buy. Then for
257. 9:35two days it also looked as if I had
258. 9:37caught the right moment.
259. 9:41And then this movement—then this
260. 9:43breakout from this...clear, he says yes
261. 9:45, the big breakout at 60, that means oh
262. 9:47how cool now, Donald, while I'm
263. 9:49recording.
264. 9:51So sure, at 60 there would have been
265. 9:52more of a buy signal, but that's not how
266. 9:54it works, of course.
267. 9:57You buy corrections or consolidations in
268. 9:59assets that you say will then resume
269. 10:00their original trend, and these stocks
270. 10:02performed very strongly.
271. 10:04So, it still looked pretty good here.
272. 10:07But then it didn't take very long.
273. 10:09Specifically, we sold on September 15th
274. 10:13.
275. 10:14Namely here, so we can look at the
276. 10:17candle exactly. On September 15th.
277. 10:20Where are we?
278. 10:21There we are. There we are. Why?
279. 10:24Because this breakout was taken back
280. 10:26again.
281. 10:27Yes, now one could naturally say, yes,
282. 10:29but a day or two later you would have
283. 10:30gotten 3%more for your ETF.
284. 10:34I cannot claim that I find the perfect
285. 10:36entry and the perfect exit.
286. 10:39If I knew that for just two days, you
287. 10:41know what? I think I would let you all
288. 10:44participate, but I don't know. I don't
289. 10:46have that crystal ball.
290. 10:48and uh exited here then.
291. 10:50So the entry price was 4661, the exit
292. 10:53price was 4201.
293. 10:55And now in hindsight, one can say it
294. 10:57just wasn't a good trade.
295. 10:59Um, and I say this is an approach with
296. 11:02which I make significantly more uh plus
297. 11:04trades with which I earn money.
298. 11:08At least double the market, not only
299. 11:10with that, but uh in that respect I do
300. 11:13know my trade, I can say that
301. 11:15confidently, but that trades don't work
302. 11:17, that actions lead to a loss, that's
303. 11:20part of it.
304. 11:22Mercilessly. I just exit then.
305. 11:26And accordingly, yes, in hindsight we
306. 11:28naturally know now, yes, it was also
307. 11:30smart to exit, but see the setup, do it
308. 11:32, trade, stick to it, done.
309. 11:35There is nothing more to it. Everything
310. 11:36else is always just tomorrow could be
311. 11:38here or there, no one knows the future.
312. 11:41Uh, in that respect, all comments that
313. 11:43say that, uh, yes, no one knows the
314. 11:45future. Exactly, because it's only about
315. 11:47having an edge, it is only and
316. 11:49exclusively about developing setups with
317. 11:51which one achieves positive results. No
318. 11:54one needs to know what happens tomorrow
319. 11:56for that.
320. 11:58So, another example, specifically one
321. 12:00this time that I would describe as
322. 12:02neutral, although Micro, one should
323. 12:04perhaps write that out, then a value
324. 12:06also comes out of that, even though it
325. 12:08earned money.
326. 12:10But I will show you right away why it
327. 12:13was nevertheless just an action where I
328. 12:15say it was okay.
329. 12:18Namely the entry was, oh god, I'm not
330. 12:20going to uh uh praise myself now, but on
331. 12:23July 6th.
332. 12:26bought at exactly 33575.
333. 12:30Ooh, also managed to catch the low
334. 12:33somewhat. So bought here.
335. 12:35Um, first partial profit with I like to
336. 12:37work with partial profit taking. One
337. 12:39cannot say that partial profits are
338. 12:41always right.
339. 12:43Um, it is my approach, partial profit
340. 12:46taking on July 30th.
341. 12:48, namely here, it was briefly above,
342. 12:52look here at 38680.
343. 12:5638680 is here. You can see where the
344. 13:00point is, right?
345. 13:02So pretty good. Why? Because that can no
346. 13:05longer be seen in the RSI; at that point
347. 13:08in time, I didn't know yet. One must
348. 13:10always, I can only emphasize it again.
349. 13:12It is not about knowing what happens. I
350. 13:14didn't know what would happen. And for
351. 13:15those who say, yes, but a breakout like
352. 13:17that is always bought.
353. 13:19Hey, if you have a super return on the
354. 13:21market and one that is better than mine
355. 13:23, then I am sincerely happy for you.
356. 13:25Please keep it up.
357. 13:27Um, second sale on 08/13.
358. 13:32Here on 08/13.
359. 13:34Where are we? Because in my view, there
360. 13:36was a reversal signal here on a daily
361. 13:38basis. 08/13.
362. 13:40Selling price 432
363. 13:42€.
364. 13:43So, quite good for the day.
365. 13:46So then we or the readers or whatever
366. 13:49thought, well, that looks pretty good
367. 13:51because Microsoft stock came under
368. 13:53pressure, but it just kept rising toward
369. 13:56500.
370. 13:58And that is why, for me, it was not a
371. 14:00bad move. We made money with it.
372. 14:02Um, but it could have gone significantly
373. 14:05better.
374. 14:06That's how it happens sometimes. And now
375. 14:08finally, a bit about scale-in and
376. 14:11scale-out. I don't claim to know the
377. 14:13bottom. I don't claim to know the top. I
378. 14:16trail my stops. That sometimes leads to
379. 14:18me being stopped out while the price
380. 14:20continues to rise. It happens.
381. 14:22I don't even look back at it, not even
382. 14:26in a mean way.
383. 14:28Happens.
384. 14:30Yes, I cut out the part that I say fits
385. 14:33my setup and accept it when others catch
386. 14:36even better prices.
387. 14:39So and finally, you always have to adapt
388. 14:42your scale-in and scale-out to the
389. 14:44volatility of an asset.
390. 14:47And now let's take a highly volatile
391. 14:48asset that I would like to show you.
392. 14:51Wait, I'll just take the price, because
393. 14:53here, uh, because it's traded relatively
394. 14:55early and relatively long on Tradegate.
395. 14:58Buy Momentum. Momentum. Yes, exactly.
396. 15:01Lumentum are currently, by the way, I'm
397. 15:04doing a post about this in the app next
398. 15:07week, are, uh, takeover, Marvell might
399. 15:10be taking over Lum.
400. 15:13They are obviously not in agreement,
401. 15:14otherwise it would have been announced
402. 15:15already.
403. 15:17Uh, could get quite exciting. Let's look
404. 15:19at it. 08/19. I can only say it again. I
405. 15:22, uh, in the end, I no longer accept
406. 15:25comments along the lines of this, that,
407. 15:27or the other. I understand that some say
408. 15:30, but I only want to watch on YouTube. I
409. 15:31understand that some say, but I only
410. 15:33want to listen to the podcast.
411. 15:34And I say, the argument for all of those
412. 15:37is always, I understand it because I
413. 15:39have it myself, I don't want to switch
414. 15:41between platforms.
415. 15:43And my answer is, that is why the free
416. 15:45app exists.
417. 15:48It is free, it will remain free, because
418. 15:49everything is in one place, all content
419. 15:51, all podcasts are there, all videos are
420. 15:52there too.
421. 15:54That argument simply doesn't count
422. 15:55anymore. There is only this one place
423. 15:56left, and in this one place it is one
424. 15:58hundred percent safe, because I control
425. 16:00the entire content. No fake accounts, no
426. 16:02bots.
427. 16:03Oh, how I loathe it when I see these
428. 16:05bots under the ah, no, hopefully my
429. 16:07video won't get axed now. But just those
430. 16:1050 bot comments under this YouTube video
431. 16:14, please just try it out. Yes, throw it
432. 16:18away immediately if it doesn't work for
433. 16:20you. works. And uh, because a few
434. 16:22thousand did it, there were notes under
435. 16:24the last video, yeah, it doesn't work, I
436. 16:27can uh I'm immediately in the paid area
437. 16:29. No, there are packages. Yes, there is
438. 16:31Renditespezialisten Premium, that's
439. 16:33where you get what I'm showing you right
440. 16:35now. But there is the free plan. You
441. 16:37logically have to go through checkout
442. 16:39there too. Germany is regulated. You
443. 16:41naturally have to provide your email
444. 16:42address when I speak with you about the
445. 16:44stock market. That's yeah, no problem. A
446. 16:46few thousand have managed it, so even if
447. 16:49I'm a digital dummy.
448. 16:51Uh you'll manage it.
449. 16:53So, let's finish Lumetom. 08/19. bought
450. 16:57. 08/19. bought. Uh, exactly at 7.22
451. 17:05€.
452. 17:06Sold on the 27th. Do I have the wrong
453. 17:09data in here? I don't think so. So a few
454. 17:11thousand readers have seen it. Um I
455. 17:15wanted We don't see what comes after.
456. 17:18What was the thought? I don't want to go
457. 17:21too much into the theoretical today. We
458. 17:23broke out to the upside here. Yes, and
459. 17:26uh then there was a pullback to the 50-
460. 17:30day line and we used that. So, then
461. 17:33there was a bit of back-and-forth on
462. 17:3508/27.
463. 17:378.20, that went very quickly.
464. 17:4108/27, caught this candle here, exited
465. 17:43half at 8.20, because I simply want to
466. 17:46take profits out of such a highly
467. 17:48volatile stock as quickly as possible
468. 17:50and trail the stop.
469. 17:52Second exit was then on 10/07. , I
470. 17:55thought that one was really good.
471. 17:5710/07.
472. 17:58Exactly 9.89 €. That was a good one,
473. 18:02right?
474. 18:03That was a good one. But it's a
475. 18:05coincidence.
476. 18:06Momentum could have also uh climbed 100
477. 18:09€ higher. I'm not showing you the
478. 18:11original charts in this case here
479. 18:12because we naturally bought in euros.
480. 18:14Yes, we bought on a German stock
481. 18:16exchange.
482. 18:17I will, of course, mention the dollar
483. 18:18values as well. So, pocketed 37%and yeah
484. 18:21, in hindsight it was clear. One could
485. 18:24have bought again at the low, and I
486. 18:25currently have no position in Lomum.
487. 18:28So, that is scale in, scale out. And now
488. 18:31I'll show you that very briefly.
489. 18:34I want, for example, here in the
490. 18:38Altcoin area, I find it exciting. I want
491. 18:41to buy. Why am I not buying yet? I need
492. 18:43a signal. I will not be the first buyer
493. 18:45. But I do need a signal. There isn't
494. 18:47one yet. It is still trending downward.
495. 18:49Where I also want to buy are the
496. 18:51semiconductors.
497. 18:54Um, yes, it is quite interesting. There
498. 18:57is no signal yet. Will I catch the
499. 18:59bottom? I’m baring it all here, as they
500. 19:01like to say. I probably won't. I need,
501. 19:03even on a daily basis, a sell-off that
502. 19:05then gets bought up, whatever, anything
503. 19:08can happen.
504. 19:09I often don't catch the low, and I often
505. 19:11don't catch the top.
506. 19:13But what I do catch—and that's what it's
507. 19:15all about—are decent entries and decent
508. 19:17exits.
509. 19:18And that is ultimately it. Scale in and
510. 19:20scale out, and finally, do it with the
511. 19:23app. There is really no reason not to do
512. 19:26it, and I want to thank the, I don't
513. 19:28know, few thousand who used it within 48
514. 19:31hours. I’m really looking forward to it
515. 19:34, and um, we will also—I’ll give you the
516. 19:37date next week, wait, this week is
517. 19:39already Monday, I’ll also give you the
518. 19:42date for the midterms, for the webinar,
519. 19:44because I, because I want to show you a
520. 19:47few things there. I want to show you
521. 19:49where and why I buy.
522. 19:52That’s it for today. I turned off the
523. 19:54air conditioning briefly for the audio.
524. 19:56By the time you see this, I’ll already
525. 19:58be on my way to regions—namely home—
526. 19:59where you don't need air conditioning
527. 20:01anymore. Everything has its pros and
528. 20:03cons. That’s it for the moment. I thank
529. 20:05you very much.
530. 20:06Uh, we’ll speak on Wednesday. Until then
531. 20:08, and ciao.