COULD ALTCOINS SEE NEW LOWS? BTC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00hello everybody I hope that you are good
2. 0:02this video is going to be quite
3. 0:04different because it's for those who
4. 0:07want to start to get ready for the next
5. 0:09Ballroom I want to start to get into
6. 0:10altcoins
7. 0:12and we're gonna discuss in this video
8. 0:13the possibility
9. 0:15real possibility in my opinion and quite
10. 0:18likely the Arts see new lows the title
11. 0:22is not clickbait in my opinion this is a
12. 0:25real possibility and I'm gonna explain
13. 0:27you why I think this can happen and at
14. 0:31the moment is probably the most
15. 0:32likeliest scenario in my opinion so
16. 0:34let's start with this okay we're in the
17. 0:36Bitcoin dominance this is basically a
18. 0:38chart that measures the dominance of
19. 0:41Bitcoin versus altcoins okay so it's
20. 0:45simple if the chart goes up then Bitcoin
21. 0:48is gonna outperform altcoins and if the
22. 0:51chart goes down okay then the altcoins
23. 0:55are going to outperform bitcoin it's as
24. 0:58simple as that now I have this image
25. 1:00here that I recommend you to to download
26. 1:03it you can take a screenshot or easier
27. 1:06you can go to Google and search Bitcoin
28. 1:08dominance cycle and you're gonna find
29. 1:10this image okay but basically it says
30. 1:12what I said by the more detail way
31. 1:14instead you hear that when Bitcoin
32. 1:16dominance goes up that means that
33. 1:18Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins okay
34. 1:20so the best cases scenario for altcoins
35. 1:23is just to be stable
36. 1:26but if Bitcoin increases the health
37. 1:29coins are gonna go down and now pay
38. 1:31attention to this if the Bitcoin goes
39. 1:33down the outcomes are going to take a
40. 1:35big dump
41. 1:36okay this basically means that if the
42. 1:38Bitcoin dominance is going up
43. 1:41okay that means the altcoins are going
44. 1:43to be doing bad against Bitcoin so if
45. 1:44Bitcoin is going down
46. 1:46even worse
47. 1:49maybe Bitcoin going down
48. 1:51one person or maybe the outcomes can go
49. 1:54down three four percent so that's
50. 1:56something you have to keep in mind now
51. 1:58in the other hand if Bitcoin dominance
52. 2:00is going down the altcoins are gonna be
53. 2:02safe okay if Bitcoin decreases the algon
54. 2:05is the most likely is that they are
55. 2:06stable and they're not either going up
56. 2:08or down now if Bitcoin is stable
57. 2:11Bitcoin
58. 2:16and this is the next scenario when we
59. 2:18can see an old season is when Bitcoin
60. 2:20goes up and the Bitcoin dominance goes
61. 2:24down why because altcoins are gonna do
62. 2:28better than Bitcoin and if Bitcoin is
63. 2:30already doing good allcons are going to
64. 2:32be doing even better so then you want to
65. 2:33have an old season
66. 2:35the problem that we have with this chart
67. 2:37is that we've been in this range for two
68. 2:41years okay this we started the rain
69. 2:44scene May 10 2021 so you know next week
70. 2:48it was going to be two years that's
71. 2:50crazy two years of sideways in a Range
72. 2:53so let me let me draw first the the
73. 2:55bottom of the range that will be around
74. 2:58here okay and then the top of the range
75. 3:01I would say that it's something like
76. 3:03this
77. 3:04okay
78. 3:05all of this
79. 3:08you can see that right now we are at
80. 3:10resistance okay in the previous times
81. 3:12when Bitcoin came to this area it went
82. 3:14down
83. 3:15well this area didn't get there really
84. 3:17bad or in this area went down okay so I
85. 3:20remember in this candle still here
86. 3:22Candlestick here 10th of April
87. 3:25I remembered I saw crypto Twitter was
88. 3:28calling for an old season
89. 3:30and I'll tell you something it's
90. 3:33impossible because it's simple as that
91. 3:35this was an internal season this was not
92. 3:40another season
93. 3:42and this wasn't an old season
94. 3:45these are just a small altcoins rallies
95. 3:49okay if we zoom out
96. 3:51they're gonna see that we are at the
97. 3:54lows
98. 3:55this was an old season this drop here
99. 3:58you can see the difference that was the
100. 4:00old season that we saw at the start of
101. 4:032021 and lasted until May that was an
102. 4:07old season this over here that was an
103. 4:09old season
104. 4:11but these things here they are not all
105. 4:14systems they are just alt rallies that's
106. 4:16all they are yes you can make a lot of
107. 4:18money here of course I'm not gonna deny
108. 4:20that you can make a lot of money but
109. 4:22they are in all systems
110. 4:24okay nothing compares to what we saw at
111. 4:26the start of 2021 the first half of the
112. 4:29year was spectacular you could see your
113. 4:32portfolio doubling every day or every
114. 4:34hour even it was it was insane I
115. 4:36remember that but right now if you
116. 4:38notice what are the lows okay so if this
117. 4:43when we break out of this range what
118. 4:45direction do you think are gonna break
119. 4:47out to the downside or the upside
120. 4:50I think it's pretty clear we're gonna go
121. 4:52to the website okay I think it's pretty
122. 4:54clear and if you check
123. 4:57the Bitcoin dominance
124. 4:59cycle
125. 5:00when the Bitcoin dominance increases
126. 5:03alts are not gonna do well
127. 5:05okay so you have to keep diamond
128. 5:08so we're in a Range the windows in a
129. 5:10breakout sooner or later and right now
130. 5:12we are at resistance you can see now the
131. 5:15next question that we have to ask
132. 5:16ourselves is is this time looking any
133. 5:20different than the previous times
134. 5:23yes I think yes because if you notice
135. 5:27what usually happens when we get to
136. 5:28these highs is that we see a weak and a
137. 5:31strong reaction it happened here it
138. 5:33happened here
139. 5:34well this didn't get durable again a
140. 5:37week and price goes to the bottom of the
141. 5:39of the range it happened here again now
142. 5:42this time
143. 5:44is looking a bit different isn't it
144. 5:46because you can see this week
145. 5:48okay press is reacted but then comes
146. 5:50back up instantly
147. 5:52and now we have a candle close
148. 5:56in this song we haven't had that before
149. 5:58and it seems that to me that this week
150. 6:00what we might be saying is
151. 6:03a flip of resistance to support
152. 6:07okay so what about if we see something
153. 6:09like this okay
154. 6:11then again flip this level this higher
155. 6:14resistance and then price can go higher
156. 6:16maybe to 52 54. okay imagine if this
157. 6:20happened at the same time as Bitcoin
158. 6:23goes down and has you know some kind of
159. 6:26retrace because keep in mind that
160. 6:27between High School Loop quite quickly I
161. 6:30would say from 15K to 30k
162. 6:34that's a massive move and yes Bitcoin
163. 6:37has done some some important retraces
164. 6:39well
165. 6:40you know we are right now 31k well we
166. 6:43would have 31k now we're at
167. 6:452028k what if the Bitcoin dominance goes
168. 6:49up
169. 6:50at the same time as Bitcoin say that it
170. 6:52goes to 25k 22k what would happen to
171. 6:56altcoins
172. 6:57well let's check the bit condominance
173. 6:59cycle
174. 7:00Bitcoin dominance goes up when Bitcoin
175. 7:04goes down
176. 7:06then we're gonna see the altcoins
177. 7:08decreasing fast that's gonna be a big
178. 7:11dump okay they're gonna go to the floor
179. 7:13if that is the case
180. 7:15if you know to me to meet a bit
181. 7:17condominant seems that it's quite likely
182. 7:19that I breaks to the upside or at least
183. 7:21it's looking quite strong at the moment
184. 7:22it's looking also different than any
185. 7:25time two years ago
186. 7:27um this is the only time that you can
187. 7:29see that there is a high probability
188. 7:30that it breaks to the upside
189. 7:33so that's that's all that's a start
190. 7:36now if Bitcoin starts to go down from
191. 7:40here at the same time as the Bitcoin
192. 7:42dominance goes up
193. 7:44the altcoins are gonna go to the floor
194. 7:46and they're probably gonna make new lows
195. 7:49that's my point we're not on the daily
196. 7:52time frame and I want to compare the
197. 7:53price of the Bitcoin dominance that's
198. 7:55the normal chart green and red candles
199. 7:57versus the price of Bitcoin that's the
200. 7:59Orange Line okay so you can see that
201. 8:01right now we had a
202. 8:0328
203. 8:05800 okay Bitcoin is going up and the 9th
204. 8:11of April where uh let me check 9th of
205. 8:15April 20 600 ish so that's you know
206. 8:19pretty much the same level now in the
207. 8:22Bitcoin dominance you can see that this
208. 8:24same day the 9th of April the highest
209. 8:26point was
210. 8:2947.66 percent
211. 8:31and now
212. 8:32we are a 48.5 percent so that's telling
213. 8:37you that the Bitcoin dominance has some
214. 8:38strength and this adds Confluence to the
215. 8:41idea that you know the possibility of
216. 8:43Bitcoin dominance breaking out of this
217. 8:45range to the upside is quite likely
218. 8:48what now in this chart is called total
219. 8:50free is this one here and it's basically
220. 8:54the market cap of crypto excluding
221. 8:57Bitcoin and ethereum so it's basically
222. 8:59altcoins unstable coins so we can see
223. 9:02how the Alphonse are doing okay this is
224. 9:05the weekly no the daily time frame sorry
225. 9:07you can see that right now we are below
226. 9:09the 50 EMA you know and let me tell you
227. 9:12as long as we are below the 50ma and we
228. 9:15are testing it as a resistance so many
229. 9:17times look at this the AMA is just gonna
230. 9:20push price down okay that's what's gonna
231. 9:23happen now this even more interested in
232. 9:25my opinion let's compare
233. 9:28the total three with Bitcoin okay
234. 9:31because now you can see that Bitcoin
235. 9:35is uh this level over here okay let me
236. 9:39draw a straight line
237. 9:41okay Bitcoin is at this level
238. 9:45um I mean it's difficult to tell
239. 9:47was that also the 9th of April yes
240. 9:50that's the that's the 9th of April okay
241. 9:52so when Bitcoin was at this level
242. 9:56in the past in this so here the 9th of
243. 9:59April so you can see that the altcoins
244. 10:01were in this Zone
245. 10:04okay now
246. 10:06Bitcoins at the same level as the 9th of
247. 10:08April
248. 10:09and the altcoins are in this level
249. 10:13okay so let me remove this now
250. 10:16so that's telling you
251. 10:18the altcoins are already starting to
252. 10:21feel the effect of the Bitcoin dominance
253. 10:23going up
254. 10:24okay so that's telling you that there is
255. 10:26a lot of weakness in the altcoins
256. 10:28if you have altcoins over Bitcoin right
257. 10:31now your portfolio you know it's not
258. 10:35it's you're not getting as much money
259. 10:36you're losing money
260. 10:37it's as simple as that if you have
261. 10:39Bitcoin it would be safer at this time
262. 10:42now let's go and check some altcoin
263. 10:44charts because we should see something
264. 10:47very similar
265. 10:48to the total three in outcomes okay
266. 10:50because this should be copying this this
267. 10:52this this this chart okay so let's check
268. 10:55for example Ada this is Cardinal okay
269. 10:59let's check but you can see that the
270. 11:01chart is quite similar
271. 11:04um yes you can see oh pacardano has gone
272. 11:06up and 90 has almost double price since
273. 11:09the lows okay now let's check
274. 11:12Ada versus Bitcoin numbers
275. 11:17what do you see here
276. 11:20making new lows constantly constantly
277. 11:23making new looks and I can tell you that
278. 11:26the most likely thing unus is the
279. 11:28Bitcoin dominance reverses here
280. 11:30and he goes again to the bottom of the
281. 11:32chart of the range
282. 11:34the most normal thing is that cardeno
283. 11:36versus Bitcoin keeps making lower loss
284. 11:39okay so you know let's go now to the uh
285. 11:45uh dot for example
286. 11:48let's see Dot
287. 11:49all right we have
288. 11:52quite a similar chart
289. 11:54let's check that's another
290. 11:5788 up quite similar to the total three
291. 12:02let's check now dot versus Bitcoin
292. 12:06oh what a surprise it's making new new
293. 12:10lows look this last week we saw new laws
294. 12:13constantly making new lows now imagine
295. 12:15if the Bitcoin dominance
296. 12:17keeps going up and breaks out of this
297. 12:20range
298. 12:22this is gonna blitz so badly and when
299. 12:25Bitcoin
300. 12:26goes down versus the dollar so basically
301. 12:30when the Bitcoin USD chart goes down
302. 12:33you're gonna see
303. 12:35this chart dot versus us
304. 12:38also going down very strong
305. 12:41so
306. 12:42I don't know how to tell you these guys
307. 12:44but I don't see
308. 12:46I don't see how else can be safe at this
309. 12:49point you know as long as the Bitcoin
310. 12:52dominance does
311. 12:53something different to what it seems
312. 12:56that I might be doing and it and it goes
313. 12:58down again to the bottom of the range
314. 13:00altons are not safe so in my opinion
315. 13:03it's not a good time to buy altcoins
316. 13:06let me show you an example of what
317. 13:08happened back in 2018 so you can see how
318. 13:12important is the Bitcoin dominance okay
319. 13:14so back in 2018 we could see that with
320. 13:17condominance formed a double b pattern
321. 13:19and then we had a trend from May 2018 to
322. 13:24September that's five months of uptrend
323. 13:26now in that time Bitcoin didn't really
324. 13:28do much because you can tell here that
325. 13:31Bitcoin has a support and it was testing
326. 13:33in the support you know ranging no
327. 13:35moving much then Bitcoin went down
328. 13:38okay and the the Bitcoin dominance they
329. 13:42then follow the Bitcoin dominance was
330. 13:45ranging in this Zone okay in this time
331. 13:49ALS o took a massive dump now if we go
332. 13:53for it and check the two dollar three
333. 13:54between November
334. 13:57um December I think it was that between
335. 13:59November December total three
336. 14:03we can see that I think it's in this
337. 14:07Zone yeah around this Zone
338. 14:10so this was a 60 percent down now
339. 14:16consider that this is also altcoins and
340. 14:19stable coins so it's not really sixty
341. 14:20percent it's more like a
342. 14:2265 70 percent at least I would say 65 70
343. 14:27is quite realistic for altcoins so damn
344. 14:32it was massive let's go back to the
345. 14:34Bitcoin dominance
346. 14:36okay let's see what we are today
347. 14:38okay let me remove all of this
348. 14:40I don't want this mess in my chart
349. 14:43so we're in this zone now imagine if the
350. 14:48Bitcoin dominance flips this resistance
351. 14:51as support okay anything is here and at
352. 14:55this time Bitcoin goes down
353. 14:57but the Bitcoin dominance is not going
354. 14:59down it's ranging here what do you think
355. 15:01would happen to altcoins
356. 15:05altcoins would be destroyed so in my
357. 15:09plan is to not buy out points here okay
358. 15:11if you are you know if you want to do
359. 15:13DCA because you've bought higher then
360. 15:16yes you can for example go I'm gonna see
361. 15:18chaining because we have Charter
362. 15:20changing last week so it's a very recent
363. 15:23chart that I have in my head this is
364. 15:25chain link in this Zone over here at 15
365. 15:27or 10 dollars then yes you can you know
366. 15:30you could DCA in this Zone at the at the
367. 15:34bottom of the range but if you haven't
368. 15:37bought yet
369. 15:39I would either Buy
370. 15:40at confirmation of the Breakout
371. 15:43okay
372. 15:44or
373. 15:46if Bitcoin dominance
374. 15:48goes up
375. 15:50then chain link is probably gonna fall
376. 15:53to this area all the way to four to
377. 15:55eight
378. 15:56for four dollars eighty cents
379. 15:59so keep that in mind because you know
380. 16:01that narrative I just told you I say
381. 16:03quite valid we only need to see the
382. 16:05Bitcoin dominance flipping that
383. 16:06resistance into support
384. 16:08and then
385. 16:09Bitcoin probably not you know a bigger
386. 16:13Retreat maybe to 25k 22k but obviously
387. 16:15the lower it goes you know the lower the
388. 16:19lower is gonna be the market cap
389. 16:20excluding Bitcoin and ethereum so the
390. 16:21outcomes are going to do a lot worse
391. 16:24you know for now I'm not expecting
392. 16:26Bitcoin to go you know to test the lows
393. 16:28or or go or go lower but
394. 16:32you know who knows if Bitcoin went even
395. 16:36lower went again to do 18K or so it's
396. 16:40very normal that we would see the total
397. 16:43market cap excluding Bitcoin and
398. 16:45ethereum maybe going on over here okay
399. 16:48because you know this is also an
400. 16:50imbalance and it's a chart that I can
401. 16:52use my trading system and chart so it
402. 16:54might come all the way to 200 billion
403. 16:58dollars market cap and that would be
404. 17:00huge that would basically mean that a
405. 17:03lot of all coins would disappear
406. 17:06but the thing we see die in other Cycles
407. 17:09why not in this cycle why is not
408. 17:11happening this cycle has the total free
409. 17:13really has the altcoins gone down
410. 17:16enough
411. 17:17I don't know you know sometimes I think
412. 17:20like this I remember that in previous
413. 17:22Cycles we saw so many Youngs disappeared
414. 17:26in like 90 percent of all coins
415. 17:27disappeared it was crazy
416. 17:29you know if you get a screenshot for
417. 17:32from coin Market from the coin market
418. 17:35cap
419. 17:36back in time and you see the top 20 best
420. 17:40altcoins that I've showed you now
421. 17:43you are not going to recognize them and
422. 17:45they were at the top
423. 17:47so Gua isn't that happening in this
424. 17:50cycle has the has the total three
425. 17:53gone down enough or does he still have
426. 17:57some way lower maybe to 200 billion
427. 18:01dollars
428. 18:03I don't know get this in mind guys I
429. 18:05would tell you that you know if you are
430. 18:07doing DCA
431. 18:10um I don't want you to after watching
432. 18:12this video to become greedy
433. 18:14um you know if you are doing DCA
434. 18:17it's a valid valid Zone to do DCA but if
435. 18:21you haven't bought any altcoins yet
436. 18:24I would suggest
437. 18:25that you buy after you see
438. 18:29um confirmation of the move for the
439. 18:31altcoins for the total three
440. 18:34okay or just wait because maybe you get
441. 18:37a cheaper opportunity a cheaper price
442. 18:39okay and then I can tell you this would
443. 18:41be
444. 18:42lifetime
445. 18:44money okay this will change your life
446. 18:46this money because look at this
447. 18:48um let me go for example to
448. 18:51to chain link okay
449. 18:54yeah I like changing let's go to chain
450. 18:55link
451. 18:57um imagine if you you know you want to
452. 18:59get to prepare for the next
453. 19:01ball Ballroom
454. 19:03and you buy uh
455. 19:06at this price now seven dollars okay
456. 19:08seven dollars and you want to sell let's
457. 19:13say
458. 19:15um
459. 19:16I don't know let's see
460. 19:18forty forty dollars for example
461. 19:21for example that's a 469 percent now if
462. 19:25you buy low one you buy for example a
463. 19:27480
464. 19:29then we are talking
465. 19:31about
466. 19:34731 you can see the difference is quite
467. 19:37big so I'm telling you you know if you
468. 19:40buy now you are the risk that maybe
469. 19:44outcomes can go lower and you are
470. 19:46missing a cheaper opportunity
471. 19:48okay now you might be also be missing
472. 19:51you know because maybe now it's the
473. 19:54outcomes start to go up I didn't have
474. 19:56some confirmation and you buy here and
475. 19:58yes you're gonna lose some appreciation
476. 20:00in price but you're gonna have
477. 20:02confirmation so you know it's not
478. 20:04Financial advice I put in a balance and
479. 20:06see what you think is more worth it
480. 20:08thank you so much for watching guys
481. 20:10and I'll see you soon