COPY This SIMPLE 6-Rule Trading Strategy For HUGE Moves — Transcript
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- 0:00You'd be surprised at how many people
- 0:02couldn't follow this because they let
- 0:03their opinions get in front of the
- 0:04market. This had a perfect setup. We're
- 0:07looking at 60-70% move off this level
- 0:10[music] with a very tight stop. At
- 0:12worst, I lose 5-6% less than 1% of the
- 0:15AUM. Versus, what can I get? Multiple,
- 0:17multiple, multiples on my wrist. This
- 0:19moves up 70%. It's really simple, yet
- 0:22not many people can follow it. And you
- 0:24think you're smarter than the moving
- 0:26average. [music] If you size it right
- 0:27and you manage the trade correctly, you
- 0:29only need a handful of these a year to
- 0:31have an awesome year. Everyone says,
- 0:32"Buy low, sell high." How about buy
- 0:34high, sell higher? These are the stocks
- 0:36[music] that can really move your
- 0:38account. You take a bunch of small
- 0:39losses and then the If you catch one of
- 0:41these stocks, it covers all that.
- 0:43>> This professional asset manager manages
- 0:45$50 million at just 25 years old.
- 0:48Introducing Connor Bates.
- 0:50>> If you don't have a formula, if you
- 0:52don't have a system, then how are you
- 0:54going to be selective? It's so simple.
- 0:56You have a big move up, you have a
- 0:57pullback, you have an expansion. You get
- 0:5930-40% [music] in 5 days.
- 1:01>> In this episode of Chart Fanatics,
- 1:02Connor breaks down the exact
- 1:05step-by-step process to identify and
- 1:08follow parabolic moves in the stock
- 1:10market.
- 1:11>> Anyone can kind of throw a dart and make
- 1:12money, right? But, in a hot market, if
- 1:15you want outperformance, you need to be
- 1:16in the best movers. If you're buying
- 1:18this, you're looking at pretty tight
- 1:19stop for a stock that is a very fast
- 1:22stock. I could see some people saying,
- 1:24"It's hindsight [music] when you see
- 1:25that." But, it's not. You can see this
- 1:26stuff real time. These are going to be
- 1:28your best opportunities to make money.
- 1:30This was up 22% on 400% above average.
- 1:34This isn't your Aunt Sally buying Blume
- 1:36Energy. This is a change in character
- 1:39because Wall Street has to re-rate the
- 1:41stock.
- 1:41>> He takes us through his entire process
- 1:44to identify the largest movers in the
- 1:47market. All this and more on this
- 1:49special episode on Chart Fanatics.
- 1:51>> What are the main hurdles that come to
- 1:53mind when trying to be effective in in
- 1:55its execution? Is there anything that
- 1:57you really have to be sort of aware of
- 1:59or manage trying to execute this on a on
- 2:01a regular basis?
- 2:02>> So, one is being
- 2:06Before we keep going into this episode,
- 2:08just remember you can get every single
- 2:10episode a free PDF with the full
- 2:13strategy breakdown including all the
- 2:15rules and everything for you to keep for
- 2:17free. ChartFanatics.com, put your email
- 2:20in and you can have the full library of
- 2:22every episode of Chart Fanatics and
- 2:23every guest and every strategy. Most of
- 2:26all, make sure you test those strategies
- 2:28so that you can see how you would
- 2:29perform over on NinjaTrader. It's a free
- 2:322-week trial to simulate these
- 2:34strategies. for both NinjaTrader and
- 2:37ChartFanatics.com are in the description
- 2:39below. Go check it out and let's
- 2:40continue with this episode.
- 2:42>> Thank you for being here. And where is
- 2:44best to begin?
- 2:45>> So,
- 2:46best to begin is the why for this. And
- 2:49the why for this is because every market
- 2:52cycle there's those outlier stocks that
- 2:55make the massive moves and, you know, I
- 2:57wanted to figure out what that looked
- 2:59like from a price volume characteristic
- 3:03standpoint and then also from a
- 3:04fundamental standpoint. And, you know,
- 3:07Jesse Livermore always says the tickers
- 3:09change but human emotion never changes.
- 3:12And so, to me
- 3:13these stocks have been repeating this
- 3:15for, you know, all the way back going
- 3:17back 50 years. And it's, you know, it's
- 3:20similar to CAN SLIM but I added a couple
- 3:22things that I found
- 3:24some minor differences but it still
- 3:26stems from the overall, you know, what
- 3:28does a growth stock look like before,
- 3:31during, and after the move and how can
- 3:33we capitalize on that because these
- 3:36these are the stocks that can really
- 3:37move your account. And these are what
- 3:39we're looking for cuz these are the ones
- 3:41that, you know, you know, you take a
- 3:43bunch of small losses and then if you
- 3:45catch one of these stocks it covers all
- 3:47of that and in between.
- 3:48>> Cool. I'm I'm looking forward to I'm
- 3:49sure the audience is as well.
- 3:51>> [snorts]
- 3:52>> So, what will be the uh first step that
- 3:53we are looking to break down?
- 3:55>> Yeah, so the first step. So, there's a
- 3:57couple things. So, we can say
- 3:59the super
- 4:01stock
- 4:03criteria. And number one is very
- 4:06important, and that is large
- 4:09daily
- 4:11weekly base. And why is that? And that's
- 4:14because when you look when you go back
- 4:15and study a bunch of big moves, they
- 4:17typically start from a big base. And
- 4:19that's because the stock has gone
- 4:20through the proper supply and demand
- 4:22characteristics. It's shaken out weak
- 4:25hands, and then you can start to see,
- 4:27you know, volume footprints.
- 4:28Institutions might be accumulating the
- 4:30stock. And again, the bigger the base,
- 4:32the higher in space, and I truly believe
- 4:34that because, you know, stock moves up
- 4:37at that momentum phase, and then it can
- 4:39spend weeks, months, even years in a
- 4:41consolidation. And we don't want to buy
- 4:44the consolidation. We want to buy when
- 4:46it breaks out of that consolidation. So,
- 4:48that's That's number one. And then
- 4:50number two is Is it linear? I when I'm
- 4:54picking a stock to trade, I want it to
- 4:56trade linear. And that's because, you
- 4:58know, choppy mean reverting stocks,
- 5:00they're tough to hold. They don't give
- 5:02you that performance that you're looking
- 5:03for. And when you find a linear stock,
- 5:06you know, it respects certain moving
- 5:08averages, and it's easier to hold, and
- 5:10it respects like typical trend signals.
- 5:12And how do you find that? You look at
- 5:14the character of the stock. And this is
- 5:18looking back at previous chart history.
- 5:22And say, typically when the stock breaks
- 5:24out of base, does it trend for a couple
- 5:26weeks to months, or does it just revert
- 5:28back to the mean? So, linearity is super
- 5:31important, and it helps you, you know,
- 5:33narrow down your universe of stocks to
- 5:36trade.
- 5:37And then number three is liquidity. And
- 5:40this is another very important thing.
- 5:42And why is because typically the best
- 5:44stocks, the ones of each cycle, like,
- 5:47you know, the Sandisk of the world or
- 5:48the Nvidias, they're trading a lot of
- 5:50volume and that's because number one,
- 5:53institutions are buying that stock. We
- 5:56want to follow institutions because
- 5:58typically they're the ones creating the
- 6:00base and then and then once it starts to
- 6:03move out, you know, it's
- 6:05better supported on pullbacks and it's
- 6:07just yeah and it and you can scale with
- 6:09liquidity. So, you know, we don't I
- 6:12don't want to trade low thin stocks.
- 6:14It's more so random versus the liquidity
- 6:17requirement, at least about 80 million
- 6:20daily dollar volume a day and this can
- 6:21obviously change as your account grows
- 6:23and as you're managing more money
- 6:25because right, if, you know, if you're
- 6:27managing a billion dollars, you're going
- 6:29to need more liquidity than that, but
- 6:31you know, TurboTax right now, you know,
- 6:33just under 30 million, you know, we're
- 6:35keying in on stocks at least trading 80
- 6:37million daily dollar volume a day.
- 6:39>> So, 80 million?
- 6:41>> Yes, about.
- 6:43And then, you know, typically yeah, 80
- 6:45to 100's the sweet spot and that that's
- 6:47what we're looking for.
- 6:49And then number four is ATR and this is
- 6:53average true range and I want to trade
- 6:56stocks that have a high ATR and that's
- 6:58because these are the stocks that can
- 6:59move the needle, right? I don't want to
- 7:02buy Coca-Cola, it moves a percent a day.
- 7:04How am I going to get returns and do
- 7:06well trading that stock? But when you
- 7:08can find the stocks that, you know, are
- 7:10moving 5, 10% a day, they have the
- 7:13ability to really move your account and
- 7:14these are the stocks that, you know, can
- 7:16move, you know, 100% in a month and if
- 7:19you catch it at the right time and
- 7:21obviously with the ATR, you know, higher
- 7:23ATR stocks, you have to position size
- 7:25accordingly. They can be tougher to
- 7:27hold, but again, the beau- the beautiful
- 7:30thing about swing trading and position
- 7:31trading is we all have low win rate,
- 7:34sorry. And so, you can lose a bunch of
- 7:36times, but that one thing that you do
- 7:38catch, that makes up for all the small
- 7:40losses and then some.
- 7:42>> Mhm.
- 7:42>> And so that's average true range. And
- 7:45then number five is very important. This
- 7:48is hot theme.
- 7:50>> Mhm.
- 7:51>> Narrative.
- 7:55Story.
- 7:57Or group. So kind of these all tie in
- 7:59together. And
- 8:00>> I was just sorry. I was going to say in
- 8:02terms of the ATR, is there a particular
- 8:04average that you look for in terms of
- 8:06percent?
- 8:06>> Yeah, typically at least 5%. So when I'm
- 8:10when I'm running my scans, um
- 8:12you know, I'm typically putting a
- 8:13criteria at least 5% of average true
- 8:16range. And again, that just makes my
- 8:19it makes my universe of stocks, it
- 8:21narrows it to to the specific criteria
- 8:24that I'm looking for.
- 8:26And then number five, this is super
- 8:28important. So we'll start with group. So
- 8:31um
- 8:31William O'Neil, he created CAN SLIM.
- 8:33Obviously, this is kind of derived from
- 8:35CAN SLIM, but he said 50% of a stock's
- 8:38movement is derived from the industry
- 8:41group and the sector. And so basically,
- 8:43what that means is that right? So let's
- 8:45talk for example, let's say memory
- 8:47stocks, right? SanDisk is a memory
- 8:49stock. Um institutions aren't just going
- 8:52to buy SanDisk, right? They're going to
- 8:53buy Micron. They're going to buy
- 8:54Seagate. They're going to buy Western
- 8:56Digital. So when you start to see a
- 8:58handful of stocks setting up in the same
- 9:00industry group with similar chart
- 9:02patterns, to me that's like the market
- 9:04screaming, like pay attention,
- 9:06something's going on here and um could
- 9:08be a big move brewing. And then hot
- 9:10theme, you know, every year
- 9:13for a certain period of time, there's
- 9:15that one big theme, right? Over the last
- 9:17couple years, it's been AI. But there's
- 9:19so many sub themes in that general macro
- 9:22theme, like the bottleneck for energy,
- 9:24um nuclear names. And so looking for
- 9:27like what's a big driver in the market
- 9:29right now? And then, you know, finding
- 9:32the sub sectors of that driver. And then
- 9:34narrative also is just, you know, what's
- 9:37the market thinking about this? Is this
- 9:40a story that the market is looking ahead
- 9:42of and this and that can help the stocks
- 9:44really accelerate to the upside. And
- 9:46then lastly, number six is a catalyst.
- 9:50And this can be a multiple multiple
- 9:53things. This could be a earnings
- 9:55release, I'll put ER. This could be a um
- 9:59blowout guidance in their earnings
- 10:01report. This could be a partnership. So,
- 10:04any any thing, any catalyst, and then
- 10:08you know, after you get the catalyst,
- 10:09it's about what is the market reaction.
- 10:11So, again, you have to analyze two
- 10:14things, right? You see the catalyst,
- 10:16what's the catalyst? Is it a massive
- 10:17beat and raise earnings report? And then
- 10:20again, like when the market opens,
- 10:21what's the reaction? Because, you know,
- 10:23you can have the best catalyst, but if
- 10:25the reaction from the stock isn't good,
- 10:28that either means it's priced in or um
- 10:30the market is forward-looking and
- 10:32doesn't think, right, they can hit those
- 10:34numbers in the future.
- 10:36>> If you're a trader, you have to know
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- 11:27The link is in the description below.
- 11:28Now, let's go back to the episode.
- 11:30>> So,
- 11:31this is really my main framework when
- 11:34I'm looking for stocks to invest in
- 11:36because, right, there's thousands of
- 11:38stocks. And if you don't have a a
- 11:41formula, if you don't have a system,
- 11:42then, you know, how are you going to be
- 11:44selective in picking the right names?
- 11:45And using this criteria helps me, number
- 11:48one, narrow down the universe of stocks
- 11:50that I'm looking at. And then, number
- 11:52two, is just looking back and doing the
- 11:55self-study myself. I realized all the
- 11:58big winners that I see in each market
- 11:59cycle, they typically always have each
- 12:02one of these characteristics. And why
- 12:04would I want to trade something else if
- 12:06it doesn't have it when most of the big
- 12:08moves checked all these boxes.
- 12:10>> That's perfect. And one question that
- 12:11comes to mind is
- 12:12>> Yep.
- 12:13>> in terms of the group,
- 12:15>> Yep.
- 12:15>> when you're looking at the group, and
- 12:17so, like, to your example, Sandisk, for
- 12:19example, the other companies that fall
- 12:21within that, if you are looking at
- 12:23those, would you still want to see the
- 12:25full criteria met on those within the
- 12:28group, as well?
- 12:29>> Yes, no, good question. So, yes, so,
- 12:31typically,
- 12:32if there's a big group moving, they
- 12:34typically have very similar chart shape,
- 12:37as well. And that's because they're kind
- 12:38of moving in tandem with each other. Um
- 12:41but again, there's always going to be
- 12:42your leader of the group, and then
- 12:44there's also going to be the laggard of
- 12:45the group. So, the laggard might have a
- 12:47worse chart pattern versus the leader
- 12:49might be a little bit more extended. But
- 12:51typically, in a strong move, you're
- 12:53going to get some sympathy move in all
- 12:55the names. And then, you know, then it's
- 12:57about utilizing your entry tactics to
- 13:00get into these stocks and picking what
- 13:02you think the leader is, the one that,
- 13:04you know, did it break out of a big
- 13:05base? Does it trade linear? Etc. And all
- 13:08these all these traits.
- 13:10>> Is it normally the case, from what
- 13:11you've noticed, that
- 13:13the leader will move first,
- 13:16and then the the sort of the group and
- 13:19the laggards will move after? Or is
- 13:21there a case where they do move in
- 13:22tandem, just the leader will have
- 13:23probably a bit more volatility, and then
- 13:26maybe an increased ATR.
- 13:27>> Yep, absolutely. So, I I've seen a
- 13:30couple different scenarios in that
- 13:31sense. Um typically the leader is going
- 13:34to move first and then you sometimes see
- 13:37an instance where the leader actually
- 13:39gets extended and then the market's
- 13:41looking for a way, you know, they still
- 13:43like the story. So, then maybe, you
- 13:45know, the second or third ranked name in
- 13:46the group really starts to outperform.
- 13:49>> I understood.
- 13:50>> And then another thing you sometimes
- 13:51tend to see and Quantum is a good
- 13:53example, like when you start to see the
- 13:56worst name in the group with like the
- 13:58worst fundamentals start to move up,
- 14:00that sometimes means the move could be
- 14:02coming to an end. So, it's like when we
- 14:04look at, you know, Quantum stocks, you
- 14:06had IonQ, Rigetti, um D-Wave, QBTS and
- 14:11then QUBT was like the worst one in the
- 14:13group and it was the last one to try to
- 14:15break out as IonQ and Rigetti were
- 14:19topping and to me like that's a signal
- 14:21that, you know, the move may be getting
- 14:23exhaustive and
- 14:24>> That makes sense.
- 14:25>> they're holding back.
- 14:25>> No, I love that. So, where do we go from
- 14:27here? Now that we have our criteria set
- 14:29out and, you know, I really appreciate
- 14:32how you've set this out and it makes
- 14:33logical sense going from one to the
- 14:35next.
- 14:36>> Yep.
- 14:36>> Um Do you know when it does come to the
- 14:38group, the last question,
- 14:41this criteria for the ATR, would that
- 14:43still be the case if 5% uh sort of
- 14:45minimum ATR you're looking for or would
- 14:48because it's the group and the lagger,
- 14:50is there a case where they might be
- 14:51slightly less, maybe like a 4 or 3% or
- 14:54would the criteria stay the exact same?
- 14:56>> Yeah, absolutely. Like the one that I'm
- 14:58trading, I want it at least to be above,
- 15:00but I'm still going to track other names
- 15:02in the group because one, that just
- 15:04gives me a feel for the market, an
- 15:06awareness on the market. Like every day,
- 15:08right, I have my quote screen with all
- 15:10these groups that I'm watching. So, like
- 15:12real time when the market's open, I can
- 15:14see where money's flowing, where money's
- 15:16falling out. And although I might not be
- 15:18interested in buying the stock,
- 15:21you know, I'm just looking for changes.
- 15:22Is the group strengthening? Is it
- 15:24weakening? And that gives me information
- 15:27on on on the market and helps my
- 15:29awareness.
- 15:30>> Love that. So, where should we go next?
- 15:32>> Yeah, so now So, you've identified the
- 15:34super stock and it meets all these
- 15:36criteria. Now, it's about how can you
- 15:38get into the stock? And I will talk
- 15:41about the different entry tactics that I
- 15:43like to use for this and they're
- 15:45timeless. All All super stocks will give
- 15:49all these All these types of entries
- 15:51throughout the run. It's your job to
- 15:53find them and figure out how you can get
- 15:55in at a low-risk spot. So, the setup
- 15:57playbook. So, one thing I always like to
- 15:59start is I always like to say, this is
- 16:02where I believe I think stock over
- 16:05setup. And what I mean by that is this
- 16:08ties into the criteria because,
- 16:11you know, just looking for the perfect
- 16:12chart pattern out there, you know,
- 16:14they're harder to find and it just could
- 16:16be random versus
- 16:17let me make a playbook for
- 16:20to get into these stocks that offer
- 16:22multiple different entry points. And so,
- 16:24the main ones
- 16:25that I like to use to get in to get long
- 16:28stock exposure is a couple different
- 16:30setups. Number one is the base breakout.
- 16:33And this is pretty simple. This can be
- 16:37This can be a matter of weeks. This
- 16:39could be months. This could be years.
- 16:41And basically, right, say you have this
- 16:43line and then this stock is just
- 16:45consolidating below the line and then
- 16:47boom, it takes out. Typically, it's
- 16:49getting a tight area underneath that
- 16:51line. And again,
- 16:53you know if you're wrong right away,
- 16:54right? If it comes back into the base,
- 16:56then the market's telling you this isn't
- 16:57ready. But typically, the best ones,
- 17:00once they break out of that base, you
- 17:02know, they sometimes retest it or
- 17:04they're just off to the races and
- 17:06they'll never come back. And so, you
- 17:08know if you're wrong semi quickly. And
- 17:11um like I said, it fits the bill of big
- 17:13bases lead to big moves. And And can be
- 17:15a matter of a couple weeks, couple
- 17:17months, to a couple years.
- 17:19And then number two is the continuation.
- 17:24It's the continuation
- 17:26flag or just side or HTF. This is a high
- 17:31tight flag. So, you have your base
- 17:33breakout. So, we'll just keep this uh
- 17:36So, you have your base breakout. The
- 17:37stock starts to move up. Maybe you
- 17:39didn't have it on your radar, but you
- 17:41want in and it starts to move up. Stocks
- 17:43don't go up forever. They move in
- 17:46repeatable patterns, kind of like a
- 17:47stair step. So, this stock moved up and
- 17:51then it forms another mini base or a
- 17:53mini flag. So, a high tight flag is when
- 17:55a stock moves 100% in a short amount,
- 17:57matter of weeks, and then it puts in
- 17:59like a flag pole, whether that be with
- 18:02the depth no greater than 20%. And so,
- 18:06the stock moves up out of this base, it
- 18:08puts in a consolidation, and boom, this
- 18:10is your entry coming out of that
- 18:12continuation flag. And typically when
- 18:14you look at a life's cycle of a stock,
- 18:17the first consolidation after a big base
- 18:19breakout is a buy because the move is
- 18:21very early. And we're talking, right?
- 18:23We're talking a year base, you know, we
- 18:25just broke out. It could run 100% in two
- 18:28months. Many people will think it's
- 18:30extended, but to me that just means, you
- 18:32know, this move is just potentially
- 18:33getting started and I want to get on
- 18:35board.
- 18:36So, that's the continuation. And then
- 18:38number three is
- 18:40just the pullback
- 18:42to ascending
- 18:44to ascending moving averages.
- 18:48I'm just going to abbreviate MA for
- 18:50moving averages. And so, right? You have
- 18:52your base breakout, you have your flag,
- 18:54and then
- 18:56and then you're looking to get in. Maybe
- 18:57the market gets sour or the group
- 18:59weakens and the stock starts to pull
- 19:01back. The macro trend of the stock is
- 19:03still up. So, I'll use this. So, you
- 19:06know, this this is the trend of the
- 19:08stock, right? And then we have our
- 19:11we use this, which is a good longer term
- 19:14trend. This is our 50 SMA S
- 19:1850 day simple moving average and then
- 19:20we'll also have which the 10 week moving
- 19:24average which is just if you go on a
- 19:25weekly chart the 10 week equal is the
- 19:28same thing as the 50 day moving average
- 19:30and sometimes it can provide a good
- 19:32entry and so you have your stock and
- 19:35you're looking to get in and like I said
- 19:37maybe the market turns a little bit sour
- 19:39and this hasn't touched the 50 day. All
- 19:41stocks in their trend revisit 50 day
- 19:43moving average like I said it eventually
- 19:46happens and the stock starts to pull
- 19:48back and then now we're looking to get
- 19:50in, right? We we don't want to buy
- 19:52falling knives but if we see an orderly
- 19:55pullback maybe an undercut reclaim of
- 19:57that moving average we can buy it as it
- 19:59reclaims that average with a clear stop.
- 20:02If it breaks back below 50 day moving
- 20:03average maybe it's not ready and you're
- 20:05taking a small loss and again with the
- 20:08way we trade small losses are the name
- 20:10of the game until you catch that outlier
- 20:12stock and it will pay for everything. So
- 20:14we're keeping risk very tight on these
- 20:17and so that that's like the pullback
- 20:18setup and you can use multiple different
- 20:21moving averages whether you know in a
- 20:23power trend it could respect the 10 day
- 20:25moving average really well. It could
- 20:26respect you know the 21 EMA. You know
- 20:28it's about what's the character of the
- 20:30stock. If it respects the 21 EMA really
- 20:32well then maybe you want to look to buy
- 20:34it off that. So and I and I typically
- 20:36just use on my charts I have the 5 SMA
- 20:39um the 10 SMA the 21 EMA 50 SMA and 200
- 20:44SMA and those are what I use and then
- 20:47for the weekly charts 10 30 and 40 weeks
- 20:49so the 10 week moving average on the
- 20:51weekly chart is the 50 day on the daily.
- 20:53The 30 week is the 150 day on the daily
- 20:56and then the 40 week is the 200 day on
- 20:59the daily.
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- 22:53Let's get back to the episode. And so,
- 22:54those are those are my trend metrics
- 22:57that I use to assess, you know, the
- 22:59health of of stock and look for dips.
- 23:01So, that is pullbacks. We might need
- 23:03some more room on here.
- 23:05>> Yeah, we can uh thank you. Before we
- 23:07move on to we've talked about how we can
- 23:09enter off this particular pattern, but
- 23:11we
- 23:12these ones in terms of the base break
- 23:13out, would you just be executing once we
- 23:15as soon as you break above?
- 23:17>> Yep. So, combination of different
- 23:19things.
- 23:21If if the stock hasn't run a significant
- 23:23amount into the breakout level, because
- 23:25you will see that sometimes if you wait
- 23:28for the {quote} {unquote} clear breakout
- 23:30level, you know, you're buying a stock
- 23:31that just moved 20 30%. And it's likely
- 23:34going to lead some frustration. So,
- 23:36ideally, you get some tightness under
- 23:38the base and you'll see that a lot. I'll
- 23:40show some examples in the chart, but
- 23:42>> Is that where you might see a cup and
- 23:43handle?
- 23:44>> Exactly. Yes, a cup and handle and then
- 23:46yeah, when it when you have tightness,
- 23:48you have an easy level to risk on,
- 23:49right? You could use last week's low or
- 23:51the previous day lows. But, um if it's
- 23:54not too extended to the base high, then
- 23:57I will buy it just as it goes through
- 23:58the line.
- 23:59>> Got you. And then in terms of uh
- 24:01the continuation the flag, is it a
- 24:03similar concept when it comes to the uh
- 24:05consolidation at the flag? So, after
- 24:07that extension,
- 24:08you have the flag form and that
- 24:10secondary consolidation, if you will,
- 24:11reaccumulation.
- 24:13Is it this the same principle with when
- 24:15in the flag looking at that tightness?
- 24:17>> Exactly. Yes.
- 24:18>> Exactly. So, typically, you want to see
- 24:20a dry up in volume. You might want to
- 24:22see a shakeout in the flag and then, you
- 24:24know, it comes up to that area that it
- 24:27potentially break out of, maybe puts in
- 24:29a tight day. If you see confirmation
- 24:31with volume, then that's your sign that
- 24:33okay, maybe the stock is ready to
- 24:35continue to run.
- 24:36>> to see that volume start to pick up as
- 24:38towards that tightness as well?
- 24:39>> Absolutely. Yep. On the breakout day,
- 24:41typically, want to see volume and if
- 24:43there's a catalyst, even better, it will
- 24:45have volume if it's a good catalyst.
- 24:48>> So, do you do you have more to go over?
- 24:49>> Yes. Yes.
- 24:50>> Cool.
- 24:50>> Two
- 24:51>> Everyone screenshot. Make sure you Make
- 24:53sure you remember this.
- 24:54>> Okay. And so, the next setup that you
- 24:56can use to get into these episodic
- 24:59>> Mhm.
- 24:59>> pivot. And, you know, a lot of people
- 25:02have talked about this. I think you had
- 25:04Pradeep on your show, which he he's
- 25:06given so much amazing criteria on this.
- 25:09I'm not going to go into sup- into depth
- 25:12on, you know, what to look for, but just
- 25:14talking about specific set-up. And
- 25:15again, ideally, you have a stock that's
- 25:19pretty main principle a stock with a
- 25:21long period of neglect, right? And that
- 25:23fits the theme of the big base. And then
- 25:26again, you have your game-changing
- 25:27catalyst that, you know, all of Wall
- 25:30Street is caught off guard. It's a huge
- 25:32shift. They have to update their models.
- 25:34The stock is seeing a huge re-rating.
- 25:37And then again, once it gaps up, you're
- 25:39going to look to get in on, you know,
- 25:41well, a couple things. You you know, you
- 25:43get into the intraday chart. You can
- 25:44take the 5-minute opening range break,
- 25:46or you can wait for the undercut. It
- 25:48just, you know, depends on what you
- 25:50know, what fits your personality and how
- 25:53and how you think. But again, you're
- 25:55seeing a stock gap up on volume with a
- 25:58big catalyst, then that's the spot to
- 25:59potentially try and get in. And when you
- 26:01look at a lot of stocks that have made
- 26:04substantial moves, when do the moves
- 26:06really start? Well, they typically start
- 26:08on an earnings gap, because that is the
- 26:10game-changing catalyst that no one knew
- 26:12about, and now it's known through the
- 26:15earnings report. And that first, you
- 26:17know, earnings gap is where your best
- 26:19opportunity is, because it's still early
- 26:22versus, you know, it just had three,
- 26:24four earnings gaps in a row. It's not
- 26:26that new to the market, but this is just
- 26:28a phenomenal way to get into a stock,
- 26:30and it just takes a simple scan in the
- 26:33morning, right? You look
- 26:34at what stocks are gapping up on
- 26:36earnings, and
- 26:38you know, it's easy to sort through
- 26:40them, and you see which one had a, you
- 26:41know, beat and raise quarter. And then,
- 26:43if it's gapping up, you look to get in
- 26:45off the open. And typically, the best
- 26:47earnings gaps, once they So, we'll just
- 26:49say this is a 5-minute chart, right?
- 26:51This is the five first 5-minute candle.
- 26:54Typically,
- 26:55the ones that take out that first o-
- 26:575-minute opening range break, and then
- 26:59you can say your stop is right low of
- 27:02day,
- 27:03which is right here. And typically, the
- 27:04best ones, there's a stampede of volume
- 27:07right off the open, and they typically
- 27:08never break low of day. And you'll see
- 27:11that in
- 27:12uh it's Dan Zanger, I think, talks about
- 27:14this. It's, you know, the best horses
- 27:17don't go back to the gate. Right when
- 27:18you buy it, you have immediate feedback.
- 27:20It's the market telling you you're
- 27:22right, and then typically doesn't
- 27:24meander come back and test your average.
- 27:26And so, that's the episodic pivot.
- 27:28And then one of my favorite ones that
- 27:30I've really learned to like over the
- 27:32past 6 months is the undercut and rally.
- 27:36And so, this is
- 27:40So, we'll start with market environment.
- 27:41When does this setup work the best? And
- 27:44that is when the market has pulled back.
- 27:47So, we'll say market
- 27:49I'll just abbreviate ENV for market
- 27:51environment. So, we'll say this So,
- 27:54right here is a chart of the QQQ, right?
- 27:57And say
- 27:58started off strong. This is kind of what
- 28:00we were seeing a little bit now. It
- 28:02consolidated, and it started to break
- 28:04down, and say it's Let's say it's taking
- 28:07out these Say this is January lows. So,
- 28:09this stock takes out January lows, okay?
- 28:12And then let's say I'm looking at a
- 28:14stock.
- 28:15Say, let's just use SanDisk for an
- 28:17example.
- 28:18And so, this was moving with the market,
- 28:21um and then again, the market starts to
- 28:23weaken up. Say pulls back a little bit,
- 28:25pulls but it's still holding up. It's
- 28:27showing relative strength, and that's
- 28:29always what we look for. Stocks that
- 28:31resist the urge to go down when the
- 28:33market goes down, and then when the
- 28:34market goes up, they outperform. It's
- 28:36essentially
- 28:37RS is looking for relative strength
- 28:40finds you the leading stocks. And so,
- 28:42right This is Say this is January. So,
- 28:45we have the Nasdaq taking out January
- 28:47lows, but I'm watching SanDisk say it
- 28:50only undercut
- 28:52this low right here.
- 28:54Excuse this. So, SanDisk is breaking
- 28:57this little shelf low while the NASDAQ
- 28:59is as well. But, say the market starts
- 29:02to bounce a little bit,
- 29:04you could see the SanDisk, it held up
- 29:07better than the market. First sign of a
- 29:09market bounce, this reclaims this left
- 29:12side peak, and then it's looking to
- 29:14break out before the market is still the
- 29:16Qs are still significantly off the
- 29:18highs. So, and again, you have your left
- 29:21side support, and you can just simply
- 29:24say if it reclaims that level, that's an
- 29:26entry point with a stop below that pivot
- 29:30point, and that helps you get into a
- 29:32leading stock with market weakness, and
- 29:35then if the market does start to write
- 29:37itself out, you potentially have you've
- 29:40invested your capital early into a
- 29:41stock. And so, that's you know, I've
- 29:44really enjoyed the undercut rally
- 29:46because your risk reward is typically
- 29:48good, and then also,
- 29:50you know, you don't have to worry about
- 29:52trying to buy a breakout because if
- 29:54someone buys a breakout now,
- 29:57price might come back in, and who's to
- 29:59say you could get stopped, whereas the
- 30:00structure of the chart is still intact.
- 30:03So, using So, the main thing with the
- 30:05undercut rally is
- 30:07you want a clear left side peak. So, I
- 30:09could There's There's a couple different
- 30:11examples, right? So, um
- 30:13you could have, you know, big base,
- 30:15stock moved up,
- 30:17pulls back, so, you know, this would be
- 30:20This was a significant level right here
- 30:22because this is where that stock broke
- 30:24out of, and it's pulling back to that
- 30:27level, undercuts a little bit, right?
- 30:29Maybe some people have their stop losses
- 30:31here, meanders, maybe price tightens up
- 30:34in a nice little range, and then it
- 30:35comes back through. And typically this
- 30:37setup shows up when the market weakens,
- 30:41index is maybe pulling pulling back and
- 30:44uh you know, you're looking for relative
- 30:47strength. You see it in what you might
- 30:49have identified as a super stock and how
- 30:51do you get in? Well, you can use the
- 30:52undercut and rally set up.
- 30:53>> Yeah.
- 30:54So, in this the premise of this one is
- 30:56very interesting. So,
- 30:58you know, it's how to rally. It It
- 30:59leaves a particular low.
- 31:02>> Yep.
- 31:02>> By breaking that low, no doubts in the
- 31:04shakeout. People who bought at this at
- 31:06this point
- 31:06>> Yep.
- 31:07>> is going to then in probably induce them
- 31:10and try and get people to start selling.
- 31:12>> Yep.
- 31:12>> Right along this all the way down here.
- 31:15Um
- 31:16and then now when that actual buy takes
- 31:18place, you now have a lot of liquidity
- 31:20you can push through to then take out
- 31:22new highs.
- 31:22>> Yep, absolutely. And then again, like
- 31:24and then you don't have to worry about
- 31:27buying the breakout and getting shaken
- 31:28out just because that's also
- 31:30characteristic I've noticed is breakouts
- 31:33can be depends on the market
- 31:34environment. And so breakouts can
- 31:36sometimes be tougher in certain areas of
- 31:38the market. Um but yeah, so that's why I
- 31:41love the undercut and rally. And I will
- 31:43add one more thing and I want to add is
- 31:47what a setup theme. So, like the the
- 31:50cycle of a stock and how you typically
- 31:52see they start or I can write down. So,
- 31:54if we
- 31:55>> Yeah, cool.
- 31:56>> Awesome. So, and then this also you tend
- 31:58to see when you study like the movement
- 32:01the movement of a stock, um they they
- 32:05the the setup theme kind of goes in
- 32:07order, right? So, first you have your
- 32:08stock and first setup that you typically
- 32:11see before a move starts is your base
- 32:13breakout, your period of consolidation.
- 32:15So, you have that. So, you have your
- 32:16base breakout which was the first setup
- 32:18in the player roster. That was the first
- 32:20setup in the playbook. So, you have this
- 32:23here. And then the second setup of the
- 32:25playbook, right? Was the continuation
- 32:27flag, right? You have a little
- 32:28consolidation.
- 32:30You can buy it right here. And so,
- 32:32that's the second variation of the of
- 32:34the setup in the stock's move. And then
- 32:38the stock continues to move
- 32:40and, you know, it's getting extended.
- 32:42Maybe we're 3 months into the market
- 32:44rally and then starts to pull back and
- 32:47you're watching this pullback. But, this
- 32:49whole time it's contained above the 50
- 32:53SMA, which again is an intermediate
- 32:56trend for a stock that that we like to
- 32:59use and and William O'Neil, arguably one
- 33:02of the best growth investors of all
- 33:04time, he said, "Buy the first pullback
- 33:06to the 50-day moving average after a
- 33:08nice run." And so, it's simple as that.
- 33:10You have your pullback to your ascending
- 33:12moving average, it holds, that offers
- 33:15another entry. And then, you know, the
- 33:17next one again, actually, so episodic
- 33:20pivot could occur back here as well in
- 33:22the base. So, this this kind of goes
- 33:24hand in hand with the base. And then,
- 33:27um so, you have your 50-day moving
- 33:29average pullback buy and then maybe, you
- 33:31know, the stock keeps stair-stepping
- 33:34higher, gets a little bit extended.
- 33:36Again, we might incur a market pullback.
- 33:39What does it do? It pulls back to the
- 33:42top of this base, looking left in the
- 33:44chart, and this is why I always like to
- 33:46utilize the daily and the weekly charts
- 33:48because
- 33:50you know, we I want the big picture. So,
- 33:52and then this last one, um we have
- 33:55again, the undercut and a rally setup.
- 33:58And then by this time, right, the stock
- 34:01could have been running for a while, you
- 34:02could start to get that blow-off move
- 34:04>> Mhm.
- 34:05>> that we've seen quite a lot of recent,
- 34:07you know, MSTR, SMCI, which I'll cover
- 34:10in the in the stock aspect. But, again,
- 34:12yeah, so understanding where the stock
- 34:15is in its life cycle, not only
- 34:17understanding the story, the narrative,
- 34:19the growth, but then also looking at the
- 34:21price action and asking yourself, "Hm,
- 34:24is there a setup theme right now?
- 34:26What's the general market doing? And,
- 34:28you know, is this later stages of the of
- 34:31its life cycle or early stages and
- 34:33having this set up playbook helps a lot
- 34:36to have awareness on where the stock is
- 34:39and then not only that but also um
- 34:42gives me multiple ways to try and get
- 34:44into the stock.
- 34:45>> Definitely, you can see how you know
- 34:47using this playbook and this criteria
- 34:49you are able to then utilize many
- 34:51different points along that cycle.
- 34:53>> Absolutely.
- 34:54>> to really maximize the growth and even
- 34:57even if you're not executing on each one
- 34:59for any reason and though you know very
- 35:01very possible and probably
- 35:03optimal.
- 35:05It still allows you to hold confidence
- 35:07in and have an understanding of the
- 35:09stock itself and the characteristics of
- 35:11what it's showing you.
- 35:12>> Yeah.
- 35:12>> Um so I absolutely love it, yeah. Where
- 35:14where should we go from here?
- 35:15>> Um
- 35:16you know we can get into the charts.
- 35:18>> I'm sure, yeah. Let's [clears throat] do
- 35:19it.
- 35:20>> Awesome, yeah.
- 35:20>> the people at home will be wanting to as
- 35:22well. Anyone at home actually, if you
- 35:23are interested in going deeper into
- 35:25episodic pivots,
- 35:27um you know make sure you can check out
- 35:28Prady's episode going to the the nuances
- 35:31of that. But for now, we're going to
- 35:33jump into the charts.
- 35:34>> Let's take a break for a minute there
- 35:35guys cuz a quick word from our official
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- 36:23job. So go check it out and let's get
- 36:25back to the episode.
- 36:26>> Okay, so the first example that I want
- 36:29to talk about and to me it's arguably
- 36:31one of the best examples is SanDisk and
- 36:34we're going to go through the criteria
- 36:36and the progression of this chart. So,
- 36:39we're going all the way back to February
- 36:4114th. This was a um spin-off of Western
- 36:45Digital and basically what that allowed
- 36:47SanDisk to become was the pure play
- 36:50memory stock for um
- 36:53for AI. You know, memory again was a
- 36:55big bottle neck. We needed more memory
- 36:57and basically essentially SanDisk was
- 36:59like the gas station um of memory. So,
- 37:03looking at the checklist, right? We have
- 37:04a multi-month base, a very nice
- 37:07consolidation and what's the first setup
- 37:09that showed up here? This was a simple
- 37:12flat base breakout and what Riz said,
- 37:15you know, what we talked about earlier
- 37:17is that do you buy it? Again, this did
- 37:19move, let's see, this moved roughly, you
- 37:22know, 30% to this level, but you can see
- 37:25this volume and this was coming out of a
- 37:28out of months of consolidation. So, to
- 37:30me this was looking good. This was on my
- 37:32radar, but I did not buy this then and
- 37:35then look how linear this stock moves.
- 37:37If you bought this base breakout, you
- 37:39have a stop here at the lows and this is
- 37:41giving you a almost triple digit gain in
- 37:44a matter of less than less than a month.
- 37:48Then we look here. You had a pullback
- 37:50kind of again, I was watching the stock.
- 37:53I didn't I didn't buy this pullback. It
- 37:55was a little bit short to me and then
- 37:56right here is when I initially got
- 37:59involved into the stock and from the
- 38:02setup playbook, what do we have here? We
- 38:04have a pretty classic high tight flag.
- 38:07We had a over a triple 100% move in a
- 38:09matter, you know, in about a month and
- 38:12then we had a very short um multi-day
- 38:15consolidation. You had a little
- 38:17undercut, kind of like a shake here and
- 38:19you can see the depth of this pullback
- 38:22was less than 20%. So, again, at this
- 38:25time I would imagine many people are
- 38:27looking at this stock and they say, "Uh,
- 38:29it's too extended. Like, how can I buy
- 38:31here?" But,
- 38:33essence of a high tight flag is the
- 38:34stock is always going to be extended and
- 38:37it's just showing extreme power. So, I
- 38:39bought this initially at 135 and we'll
- 38:42go back to the themes, right? So, what
- 38:45was moving during this time? Why
- 38:47why did why did I like Sandisk? Well,
- 38:49because we can go back and look at
- 38:51Western Digital. Look at what this stock
- 38:53was doing. We can go back and look at
- 38:56Seagate. What was this stock doing? And
- 38:58you can see they were all rallying
- 39:00nicely. So, that gave that can give you
- 39:02conviction that, "Hey, maybe this
- 39:03Sandisk does work." And this was more of
- 39:05a newer merchandise. It was a spin-off.
- 39:08And so, from that move you get a, you
- 39:11know, 100% move, right? In a in a pretty
- 39:13short order.
- 39:15When I was in this, I was selling some
- 39:16into strength and on this day right
- 39:18here, I sold the rest of it. Um, again,
- 39:21to me, you know, I'm trying to catch the
- 39:23bulk of the move. So, I want to be when
- 39:26the trend's powerful and to me this was
- 39:28a change in character day, right? A big
- 39:30big bar break to the downside. This
- 39:33orange line is the 21 EMA and to me like
- 39:37I still like the stock, but I was just
- 39:39taking the final piece of the position
- 39:41off. But, it didn't get off my radar
- 39:44because one, this was, you know, super
- 39:46stock, had all the criteria, you know,
- 39:49the theme was hot, had big earnings, um,
- 39:52backlog was big. And so, now this sets
- 39:55up another perfect pattern. We talked
- 39:58about the first pullback to the 50-day
- 40:00moving average in a growth stock is a
- 40:02buy. This This red line is the 50-day
- 40:05moving average right here and you can
- 40:06see you could even argue this was an
- 40:09undercut and reclaim of this wick. Yeah.
- 40:11Plus, it held above the 50-day moving
- 40:13average. So, you have an entry there and
- 40:16then you had another third, so you had
- 40:20You had first pull back, you had another
- 40:22higher low riding the 50-day moving
- 40:24average, and then you retested it for
- 40:26the third time holding the 50-day moving
- 40:29average. And so, to me, what was
- 40:31happening here was, you know,
- 40:33institutions were accumulating the
- 40:34stock, and this was the first true base
- 40:37that it formed really, um, other than
- 40:40that short little high tight flag. So,
- 40:42even after selling it here,
- 40:44I got re-engaged into this stock, um,
- 40:48we'll go, sorry, get a line, I got
- 40:50re-engaged right around here, and then
- 40:52this offered another entry, too, is you
- 40:55could have bought a simple breakout,
- 40:57right? You had your tightening in the
- 40:59right side of the base, we were talking
- 41:01about this cup and handle.
- 41:03You had your, you know, cup handle here,
- 41:05and then you have this handle out here,
- 41:08and what happens? You get a very nice
- 41:09day breaking through your line out of
- 41:12this tight range, right? If you're
- 41:14buying this, you know, you're looking at
- 41:16a pretty tight stop for a stock that is
- 41:19a very fast stock, and so that means you
- 41:21could potentially put on some size in
- 41:23this one, and so it breaks out, puts in
- 41:26a rest day, pretty normal, and then even
- 41:28here, you have your 300 psychological
- 41:31level, this even could have been an add
- 41:33point, and so at that time, fully
- 41:35positioned into this stock, and then as
- 41:37you can see, what's what is the
- 41:39character of Sandys when it breaks out?
- 41:41It's just the best stock to be in.
- 41:43This this 5 SMA, which is to me like the
- 41:46ultra short-term moving average, the the
- 41:49strongest of the strongest stocks can
- 41:51just ride this thing higher. And look at
- 41:54If you bought this, you don't It's just
- 41:56This is giving you another triple-digit
- 41:58gain, um, from this breakout, and, you
- 42:01know, I trimmed along the way here,
- 42:04right? This day 130, this was that
- 42:06earnings gap, it gapped up over, you
- 42:08know, pretty big on a a
- 42:10earnings, and again, this is comes to
- 42:12the theme that not every earnings report
- 42:15is equal. A lot of the story had been
- 42:17priced in at this time. So, this is not
- 42:20and there's no neglect. The stock is
- 42:22vertical. It's gone from 60 to 725 in
- 42:24the matter of
- 42:26a couple months. And then so, I sold
- 42:29quite a lot of position now. And now I
- 42:31just have a small trailing position
- 42:33actually. And
- 42:35this this yellow line here along with
- 42:38we'll take a look at the weekly, not the
- 42:4010-week because it's too extended to the
- 42:42downside. But now, you know, we'll see.
- 42:45It's we'll see if it can you never know
- 42:47how high these things can go. And that's
- 42:49why I always like to sell last portion
- 42:52on weakness because again, like I said,
- 42:53you just really don't know. And really
- 42:55got that from Chris and cool Maggie is
- 42:58he has this code if something about if
- 43:01you don't trail moving averages in a hot
- 43:03market, you retire 10 years later. And
- 43:05that's just because if you're in a good
- 43:07environment, you never know how high
- 43:08these things can go. And so, this is
- 43:11arguably
- 43:12one of the best examples I can find
- 43:14because it seemed like not a lot of
- 43:16people thought this stock was very hard
- 43:19to get into. But when we look at the
- 43:21move, it had virtually every setup in
- 43:23the playbook at a really clean spot. And
- 43:26again, you can't have growth stocks can
- 43:28go higher than you think. And so, if you
- 43:31think it's extended, it's not extended
- 43:32when you when you look at the structure
- 43:34of the chart. And again, the beauty with
- 43:37this system is
- 43:38you know, if the trend breaks, we'll be
- 43:41out. We're not holding this all the way
- 43:42down and we're looking to capture that
- 43:44momentum. So, that is Sandisk arguably
- 43:47arguably the most polarizing and the
- 43:49best stock in the market right now. And
- 43:51it and it fit and this is this is what I
- 43:54noticed big winning stocks that have
- 43:56this criteria can do. And these are the
- 43:58outliers that you want to look to
- 44:00capture.
- 44:00>> Of course. Cuz just a handful of these a
- 44:02year can make or break your your career
- 44:04in compounding that over years
- 44:06>> Mhm.
- 44:07>> is where you see that exponential
- 44:08growth.
- 44:09>> Exactly. And it comes down to the thing
- 44:11of under trade, be patient because
- 44:14again, one of these is going to show up
- 44:16again and if you size it right and you
- 44:18manage the trade correctly, you only
- 44:20need a handful of these a year to have
- 44:22an awesome year and the rest you're
- 44:23just, you know, controlling your equity
- 44:25curve, not trying to go into drawdown.
- 44:27>> to be honest with you though. I wish I
- 44:29had this playbook because I from just
- 44:31the work I do with social media, SanDisk
- 44:34and memory was like a big thing.
- 44:36And it was just like a year, maybe even
- 44:382 years ago and I was like, "Oh, maybe I
- 44:40should look to invest in the companies
- 44:41or
- 44:42SanDisk itself." Didn't do it of course.
- 44:44Didn't even look at a chart.
- 44:46>> Yeah.
- 44:47>> And if I had this, I would have probably
- 44:49been in a very long time ago and had a
- 44:50very good very healthy portfolio. But it
- 44:53just goes to show, I never really feel
- 44:55FOMO cuz it's like a learning point. It
- 44:57is for me and I would imagine there's
- 44:59other people out there who probably find
- 45:00themselves in a similar scenario. Maybe
- 45:02it was you years ago
- 45:03>> Yep.
- 45:03>> where
- 45:05you've
- 45:06even if you haven't done a deep
- 45:07analysis, but you have the thought
- 45:09process of, "Oh,
- 45:11this will probably be impactful in the
- 45:13future.
- 45:14This should be worth looking at or
- 45:16investing in." And even if you end up
- 45:17not doing so,
- 45:20and you might feel FOMO, right? Or you
- 45:22know, feel like you missed out, but
- 45:24it's a good sign that you were able to I
- 45:26connect some dots even if you didn't go
- 45:28all the way.
- 45:28>> Exactly.
- 45:29>> sign because
- 45:30something that is a very interesting
- 45:32with these sort of movers in particular,
- 45:35cuz even if you don't capture the whole
- 45:36move, even if you only end up getting
- 45:37one entry, all it takes is a good
- 45:39handful of 100% moves um
- 45:43to really change uh
- 45:44your career. You can really change
- 45:46essentially your life um,
- 45:48you know, because even if you start with
- 45:50small sums,
- 45:51>> Exactly.
- 45:52>> of those 100% plus gainers, even
- 45:53multiple 100% gainers over the space of
- 45:56say 10 years
- 45:57>> Mhm.
- 45:57>> is a dramatic increase.
- 45:59>> Exactly.
- 46:00>> Um and I think a lot of people don't
- 46:02realize that. You know, then that this
- 46:03opportunity, especially in comparison to
- 46:05say shorter-term trading
- 46:07I don't want to say easier, that's the
- 46:08wrong word, but like this
- 46:10is a methodology that anyone You don't
- 46:12need to be a professional fund manager
- 46:14or anything. Like anyone and anyone can
- 46:16do this. And if anything, a lot It's a
- 46:18lot simpler
- 46:20in nature
- 46:22and calmer in nature than you know,
- 46:24intraday scalping or or day trading.
- 46:26>> Yep.
- 46:27>> Um, but it still requires that
- 46:28discipline.
- 46:29>> Exactly.
- 46:30>> Um, to follow the criteria you've set
- 46:31out. And it still requires that
- 46:33discipline to execute when the time's
- 46:35right.
- 46:35>> Yep.
- 46:36>> And manage your trades uh properly.
- 46:37>> Exactly.
- 46:38>> I've got to tell you something. Hundreds
- 46:40of thousands of traders have already
- 46:41made the switch to Trade Zella.
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- 47:01keep repeating without even knowing it.
- 47:03And it tells you in plain language
- 47:05what's working
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- 47:54Let's get back to the episode.
- 47:55>> Yeah, no. And it again, yeah, you can
- 47:58someone can have a full time, they don't
- 47:59do this for a living. This framework is
- 48:02you could use it, right? And you if you
- 48:03have time in the evenings, you can do
- 48:05it, find your stocks, have your levels
- 48:07that you would buy. And so, yeah, it's
- 48:08um
- 48:09and again, and with this with the style
- 48:11is
- 48:12there is really no limit, right? There
- 48:14this is, you know,
- 48:16the bigger that your portfolio grows or
- 48:18the more money that you're managing,
- 48:20you know, whole time is important,
- 48:22right? You have to accumulate stocks and
- 48:24you kind of need to have a bit of an
- 48:25understanding um of the, you know, the
- 48:28story and what you're looking for and
- 48:30having different entry tactics like
- 48:31buying pullbacks and whatnot. And then
- 48:33to your point about, right, sure you
- 48:36could have just bought it at 60 and held
- 48:38the whole way, that's great, but like we
- 48:39showed, look how many amazing gains I
- 48:42knew I knew I knew like one person that
- 48:44bought it here, but again, right? Look
- 48:46at how many times this offered
- 48:48opportunities to get into the stock and
- 48:51offered great great returns, multiple
- 48:53100% moves. And, you know, we're looking
- 48:55to compound our capital. So, you know,
- 48:58you do that, you have and then compound
- 49:00it again in another stock and that's how
- 49:01you really get that super performance.
- 49:03>> That's right.
- 49:04>> So, and so we'll we're going to dive
- 49:06into some more examples. Um let's do
- 49:08Rocket Lab. And Rocket Lab's a good
- 49:10example of one that, you know, I I saw
- 49:14quite early, but I wasn't involved. And
- 49:16again, it fits theme that if you think
- 49:19you missed it, sometimes you really
- 49:20haven't. So, zooming all the way back,
- 49:23right? We're looking at the Rocket Lab
- 49:25we have a massive multi-year base,
- 49:27right? Like this this stock has been
- 49:29dead since, you know, topped in 2021
- 49:32with a lot of growth stocks, but just
- 49:34this whole period of basing, it's just
- 49:37going through the proper supply and
- 49:38demand characteristics.
- 49:40And then we need a spark. We need
- 49:42something to, you know, get this out of
- 49:44the base and what's that going to be?
- 49:46And so, all the way back here, you got
- 49:49your initial kind of, you know, base
- 49:51breakout. And this one
- 49:54again, may, you know, fouled here, came
- 49:57back in, but this is when it was showing
- 50:00it started to show some linearity,
- 50:01right? Off the bottom, we had a 70%
- 50:04move. We had a normal pullback. We had
- 50:07another 20% move, and then we had some
- 50:09tightness in the chart, and we can see
- 50:11the alignment of the moving averages.
- 50:13This is another thing that you need to
- 50:15look at for when trying to figure out
- 50:18when the stock potentially might be
- 50:20ready. You can see the moving averages
- 50:22were all tangled in here. Um and then
- 50:25you we got that full positive alignment.
- 50:2850-day above the 200-day, and so the
- 50:30trend is now starting to change.
- 50:32>> Is there volume as well, the uptick in
- 50:35volume in comparison to the the rest of
- 50:37the base?
- 50:37>> Absolutely. And that's another thing is,
- 50:40right? It's, you know, had some volume
- 50:42here, but again, this was, I believe, at
- 50:44the time, yeah, this looks like it was
- 50:46highest volume ever, and that's another
- 50:48thing you can run easily. You can just
- 50:50run a daily scan, spit me out stocks
- 50:53that have highest volume ever, because
- 50:54something potentially is going on there.
- 50:56>> Even at this stage, if you just zoom out
- 50:58again, quickly, sorry. Um
- 51:01just here, if I just uh show you here,
- 51:04would this still be a criteria? I know
- 51:06it was something that we went writing
- 51:08out the examples kind of a bit later on
- 51:10in terms of a
- 51:12a
- 51:12a setup.
- 51:13We see how we sweep this high,
- 51:15>> Yep.
- 51:16>> and then probably get some, you know,
- 51:18buys in, and then we end up coming
- 51:19undercutting here.
- 51:20>> Yep.
- 51:20>> The low, the current low of the base,
- 51:22and that's actually then the low of
- 51:25the overall base itself. Would that then
- 51:27be the undercut rally still? Is it like
- 51:29a even if you might not execute from
- 51:31there, cuz you're still in the base at
- 51:32that point, would that be like sort of a
- 51:35oh, this could be a
- 51:36the start of something, and then you
- 51:38start, as you said, the EMAs, the volume
- 51:41start to get tighten around the the the
- 51:43top of the the range, if you will?
- 51:46>> Yep. No, yeah, that can absolutely be an
- 51:48entry, but primarily
- 51:50for the undercut rally that I trade, I'm
- 51:52looking for a more established uptrend
- 51:54at that point. But again, this it's the
- 51:56same concept, and at the end of the day,
- 51:59we're just trying to get positioned in a
- 52:00stock with low risk. And what does this
- 52:03give you? Low risk, because
- 52:05say this is really important level. If
- 52:07it breaks it, then it's probably going
- 52:09lower. But what if it sweeps it, like
- 52:11you said, and reclaims? Then maybe
- 52:13there's some trapped shorts there, and
- 52:14then that's kind of what starts the
- 52:16move. And so, going on in this chart is,
- 52:21right, we have the stock is showing a
- 52:23lot of linearity. I wasn't involved, but
- 52:25it moves out of this flag, right? We
- 52:27talked about those flags. See the volume
- 52:30drying up, and look at the uptick in
- 52:32volume, and then it continues. And
- 52:34again, this offers really This offers a
- 52:37really nice move.
- 52:39Triple-digit gains, never breaking the
- 52:4121 EMA. So again, a simple sell some
- 52:45into strength, and then just trail with
- 52:46the moving average that the chart
- 52:48respects. And that And it's really
- 52:50simple, yet not many people can can
- 52:53follow it, because the stock starts
- 52:55getting extended, and you think you're
- 52:56smarter than the moving average. And
- 52:58when in reality, that's why you pay
- 53:00yourself as it moves up, you you finance
- 53:03your risk. And then, again, like I said,
- 53:05we don't know how high any stock can go.
- 53:07And if you're arbitrarily just I know, I
- 53:11always trail some, but some people like
- 53:13to think they just sell everything at
- 53:15the top. It's you're basically trying to
- 53:17say that like you know what the market's
- 53:19going to do, versus letting it move. So,
- 53:23this gives you an opportunity, and if I
- 53:24was in right now, it's starting to get
- 53:27choppy, and when it broke the 50-day
- 53:28moving average, this I would have been
- 53:30out as well. Maybe I would have given it
- 53:32more room, but at this time, I would
- 53:34have exited the stock if I was in it.
- 53:36And then, again, it, you know, kind of
- 53:39just moving sideways. There was no like
- 53:41big catalyst at the time, but again,
- 53:43this had a big base, so we're just going
- 53:45through the the life cycle of the stock.
- 53:48Um and then this was also the the tariff
- 53:50tantrum as well. So, everything pulled
- 53:52back, especially high beta, but I will
- 53:55go back into a recent example of Rocket
- 53:59Lab from this year, and it had a couple
- 54:01of things. So, one, remember I talked
- 54:04about that undercut reclaim of the left
- 54:05side peak. So,
- 54:07we're watching the stock. It has a lot
- 54:09of the criteria. It's um had a big base.
- 54:12It trades linear when it breaks out. Um
- 54:14it's liquid. It it moves fast, right?
- 54:16Even today it averages 10% a day.
- 54:19>> Wow.
- 54:19>> And so, right here is when I bought, and
- 54:23there was a key reason why I bought
- 54:25here. Right on this day, it was
- 54:28um
- 54:29the Trump signed the space executive
- 54:31order. So, that is a massive catalyst.
- 54:33Like,
- 54:34Trump signing it, we want to be a leader
- 54:36in space, we're going to be investing
- 54:37into these companies, and then there was
- 54:39also another thing, and that was Elon
- 54:41Musk was floating the idea of taking um
- 54:44IPOing SpaceX at an absurd valuation.
- 54:48And so,
- 54:49what do people think? They're like,
- 54:51well, if that's going to happen, I need
- 54:52some space exposure. And this executive
- 54:54order signed, so two like big catalyst,
- 54:58and this had a perfect setup. Had a big
- 54:59move up, pulled back to the moving
- 55:01average. You can see like how important
- 55:04that
- 55:05this level was right here. You know,
- 55:08rejected here. It rejected here. This
- 55:11was a breakout right here, and then
- 55:13where is it finding support? So, this is
- 55:15like an undercut reclaim setup. You have
- 55:17two tight candles on little volume, and
- 55:20I bought this right here, and volume
- 55:22started to tick back up. And so, you
- 55:24see, typically best trades work right
- 55:27from the start, right? And so, you get
- 55:29that, and so now this fits all the
- 55:30criteria.
- 55:32And it starts moving out right from this
- 55:34area. We're looking at, you know, a, you
- 55:37know,
- 55:3960-70%
- 55:4050 plus move off this level with a very
- 55:43tight stop. And then again,
- 55:45I the market was a little bit more
- 55:47shaky, but again, looking back on this,
- 55:50this could have been an entry right
- 55:52here, right? You this is kind of like
- 55:53your a little cup and handle base.
- 55:56Big move up, pullbacks that left side
- 55:58high.
- 56:00Found support at the rising 21 EMA, and
- 56:03then shot back up. And again, um it
- 56:05still gave a good move, right? A 30%
- 56:08move in a couple days is a good trade.
- 56:10Not everything's going to turn into a
- 56:11monster, and that's why we sell some on
- 56:13the strength. And then now,
- 56:15sold some on the strength on the way up.
- 56:17And actually yesterday, I sold it. Um
- 56:19it's breaking breaking the 21 EMA. Now
- 56:21it's falling through to the downside
- 56:23today. And I was watch I was
- 56:25backstopping some of the position with
- 56:26the 74 level. And there was more
- 56:29confluence is this white line right
- 56:31here, 74, was the 10-week moving
- 56:34average. So,
- 56:35to me, the stock just needed a little
- 56:37bit more time, but looking forward, this
- 56:40could provide another entry. Um the
- 56:43market's
- 56:44got the market environment's gotten
- 56:46worse, so these high beta names can be
- 56:49less likely to work, but
- 56:51you know, what would be another
- 56:52potential entry is if this put in a
- 56:54little base, reclaim 74, you have
- 56:56another undercut reclaim. So,
- 56:58>> True, yeah.
- 56:59>> these stocks provide tons of
- 57:01opportunities along the way, and you
- 57:03don't have to be
- 57:04in the stock the whole time to catch it.
- 57:06There's
- 57:07plenty of trade opportunities throughout
- 57:09the move.
- 57:10And so that is Rocket Lab. And what had
- 57:12what did we have extra conviction on
- 57:15that supported the space theme? Planet
- 57:17Labs, another one that we traded. And
- 57:19all these trades I'm talking about,
- 57:20these were ones that we traded um in
- 57:23TurboTax and bought for clients. So, I
- 57:25wanted to give some real-life examples
- 57:28because
- 57:29I could see some people saying, "It's
- 57:31hindsight when you see that." But it's
- 57:32not. You can see this stuff real time,
- 57:34then you utilize the setups to get into
- 57:37the stock. So,
- 57:38Planet Lab, as I'm sure people are aware
- 57:40now, what do we see here?
- 57:43We have just a massive base, massive
- 57:46consolidation.
- 57:48So, we'll go to the weekly, and we'll
- 57:50put the weekly. So, this is the 10-week
- 57:52and 30. So, we have a massive base.
- 57:54Could this be bottoming? This is
- 57:56bottoming out, but I'm not going to be
- 57:57interested because look at the slope of
- 57:59the weekly moving averages. You have
- 58:01They're all out of whack. The 10-week's
- 58:03below the 30 and the 40-week. And again,
- 58:05like we said, it's going through the
- 58:06supply and demand characteristics. And
- 58:09then, boom, out of nowhere, we have
- 58:10highest volume ever on in December.
- 58:14The 10-week got back above the 30 and
- 58:1640-week. So, automatically, this stock
- 58:18is worth watching on radar, and we will
- 58:20get into the and we'll narrow it down to
- 58:23the daily chart, and we'll talk about
- 58:26what this was, and this was
- 58:28an earnings gap. This was an episodic
- 58:30pivot. And what this was was
- 58:32This was [clears throat] highest volume
- 58:33ever on an earnings release. And that's
- 58:36big, right? Coming out of a long period
- 58:38of neglect, they had They recorded free
- 58:40cash flow for the first time ever. They
- 58:42had huge backlog. And just like the
- 58:44satellite space
- 58:46theme was growing in interest. And then,
- 58:49so,
- 58:50could have bought this earnings gap,
- 58:51potentially. I wasn't involved with the
- 58:54stock, but again, we can just go through
- 58:56this, right? Could have bought this
- 58:57earnings gap. Maybe you get stopped out,
- 58:59but this undercut gap day's lows. And
- 59:02another I'll mention another uh key
- 59:05setup that is the same thing as as the U
- 59:08and R. I actually watched Ariel's Chart
- 59:10Fanatic episode, and it was awesome, and
- 59:12he talked about this, but this is the
- 59:14high-volume close reclaim. So,
- 59:17>> Yeah.
- 59:17>> 6 5, the close was 596.
- 59:21And again, that's the easy level to risk
- 59:23off. So, if you don't want to buy the
- 59:25earnings gap, this is again a a
- 59:27variation of the under gun reclaim
- 59:28setup, but it's reclaiming that high
- 59:30volume close because that's a pivotal
- 59:32spot in the charts, a key pivot point,
- 59:35and so that's notable. So, fast forward
- 59:38had an earnings gap, has another
- 59:40earnings gap, had um
- 59:42had free cash flow, again had a record
- 59:44backlog. Um I believe this was a double
- 59:47beat and raise. Look how linear this
- 59:49moves. If you even on this day, um it
- 59:53was up 35%
- 59:55and again, what are most people going to
- 59:57think? I I don't want to touch it. It's
- 59:58too extended. But we're looking at the
- 1:00:00structure of the stock and where it's at
- 1:00:02in its life cycle, and to me it's not
- 1:00:05that extended, although people are
- 1:00:07scared to buy strength, right? Everyone
- 1:00:09says
- 1:00:10buy low, sell high. How about buy high,
- 1:00:12sell higher? That's that's kind of my
- 1:00:14philosophy.
- 1:00:15And what did this do? This gave an
- 1:00:17amazing amazing trend. Wasn't involved
- 1:00:21with this. And again, some people would
- 1:00:23say, "Oh, Connor, this stock's gone from
- 1:00:25two to 18 and you haven't even been
- 1:00:27involved. Like this the move's probably
- 1:00:29done."
- 1:00:30Not necessarily. And then we have
- 1:00:32another earnings gap on huge volume,
- 1:00:35double beat and raise, and this is in
- 1:00:38TurboTax and we bought this earnings
- 1:00:39gap, right? Bought the 5-minute opening
- 1:00:42range with a stop at low of day.
- 1:00:44>> Uh
- 1:00:44>> And following that, one of the examples?
- 1:00:46>> Yep. Literally as simple as it gets,
- 1:00:49right? And it's not
- 1:00:51you know, real time and it's obviously
- 1:00:52not the easiest thing in the world, but
- 1:00:54it's like Planet Labs, well, I'll just
- 1:00:56give you waking up in the morning,
- 1:00:58Planet Labs is gapping up on earnings. I
- 1:01:00see space stock are strong. This is
- 1:01:02clearing a key left side high, had a
- 1:01:05period of neglect, right? Into the
- 1:01:06earnings. You buy the 5-minute opening
- 1:01:09range break, stop at low of day.
- 1:01:11This gives no pressure, pulls back here
- 1:01:13again, but again, sticking with the
- 1:01:15stop, not not breaking the rules. And
- 1:01:18what do you get? You get another super
- 1:01:20linear because
- 1:01:22I saw this earnings gap back here and I
- 1:01:24saw that I missed it. So, I said, "If
- 1:01:26this gaps up again, based on previous
- 1:01:29chart history, it shows it can trend
- 1:01:31linear and it had a double beat and
- 1:01:32raise. So, I said, why wouldn't I try
- 1:01:34this? At worst, I lose, you know, 5 6%
- 1:01:38you know, less than 1% of the AUM.
- 1:01:40Versus, what can I get? Multiple
- 1:01:43multiple multiples on my risk and this
- 1:01:45moves up 70%."
- 1:01:47And like I've shown in recent examples,
- 1:01:50we're selling into strength and then
- 1:01:52again, the market's been weakening. This
- 1:01:54breaks this little shelf here. The
- 1:01:56character of the stock is changing a
- 1:01:58little bit. It's making lower highs,
- 1:02:01lower highs.
- 1:02:03Look at the slope of the moving average
- 1:02:04starting to roll over. So,
- 1:02:07the stock's not like I mean, this could
- 1:02:09be a long-term secular top. I've no
- 1:02:10idea. I don't really think so. I just
- 1:02:11think the market's showing me the price
- 1:02:13action that this might be going into a
- 1:02:15basing period or a longer consolidation
- 1:02:18and we're looking to compound our
- 1:02:20capital. So, again, I got knocked out of
- 1:02:22the last trailing piece and then again,
- 1:02:25I'll watch this for another variation of
- 1:02:27the setup.
- 1:02:28>> In terms of selling into strength, is
- 1:02:29there any criteria that you follow uh to
- 1:02:31do so? Or is there a criteria that
- 1:02:34generally is good practice?
- 1:02:36>> Yep, absolutely. So, um if you look at
- 1:02:39stocks, typically, the first three to
- 1:02:41five days, again, this is a principle
- 1:02:43that I learned from Pradeep Kumar
- 1:02:46Aggarwal. And again, this whole
- 1:02:47superstock criteria, this is like on the
- 1:02:50heels of the greats above me. I'm not
- 1:02:52reinventing the wheel. I just added a
- 1:02:54little flair of myself and just tried to
- 1:02:57make it my own, what fits with my
- 1:02:59personality. But, um Kumar Aggarwal and
- 1:03:02Pradeep
- 1:03:03did the same thing. They studied all
- 1:03:04these different stocks and they found
- 1:03:06that in the first three to five days,
- 1:03:08that's typically your high momentum run.
- 1:03:10So, after that, it could slow down. So,
- 1:03:14you can finance your risk in the first,
- 1:03:16you know, three to five days and it
- 1:03:17varies. So, sometimes if a stock's more
- 1:03:19extended in its life cycle, I'll look to
- 1:03:21sell some in strength right away. If I'm
- 1:03:23catching it out of a big base or in
- 1:03:25earnings, sometimes I will just say,
- 1:03:27"I'm going to sell half on the first
- 1:03:29daily close below the 10 SMA."
- 1:03:31>> Got you.
- 1:03:32>> Um and it it just takes like what I'm
- 1:03:34looking at, but again, if you're a
- 1:03:36beginner and I was going to give you,
- 1:03:38you know, you know, advice, I would say
- 1:03:40you're going to buy these setups, you
- 1:03:42would just say
- 1:03:44trail on the first close below the
- 1:03:4610-day simple moving average and you'd
- 1:03:48be surprised that how many people
- 1:03:51couldn't follow this because they let
- 1:03:52their opinions get in front of the
- 1:03:53market. And that brings me to another
- 1:03:55example of like the turtle traders. He
- 1:03:57was a systematic trend follower and he
- 1:04:00got people from all different walks of
- 1:04:02life. People that did well was, you
- 1:04:04know, the the garbage man, not the
- 1:04:06surgeon because they thought they were
- 1:04:07smarter than the market.
- 1:04:09>> yeah.
- 1:04:09>> And
- 1:04:10>> That makes sense.
- 1:04:10>> And then another way is ATR extended
- 1:04:12from the 50-day moving average. Once a
- 1:04:14stock reaches 10 ATR above the 50-day
- 1:04:17moving average, that is extreme
- 1:04:20extension. It can continue going higher,
- 1:04:22but the is more likely chance that it
- 1:04:25starts to pull back and that that's
- 1:04:26another good
- 1:04:28thing to use. And then after selling
- 1:04:30some into strength, I'm going to sell
- 1:04:32the rest on weakness, whether that be a
- 1:04:34break of a support, a moving average
- 1:04:36that I'm trailing with and whatnot.
- 1:04:38>> When it comes to this
- 1:04:41philosophy, if you will, of observing
- 1:04:44stocks in the cycle.
- 1:04:45>> Yep.
- 1:04:45>> Um two two questions. One first is
- 1:04:49what are the key things that when you
- 1:04:51first start to learn and identify and
- 1:04:52try and apply these
- 1:04:54uh this viewpoint,
- 1:04:56what was something you wish you knew
- 1:04:58back then that would have helped you
- 1:04:59maybe overcome some hurdles or have a
- 1:05:01better understanding or better action to
- 1:05:05take that you now understand?
- 1:05:07>> Yeah, so
- 1:05:09when I first started,
- 1:05:10I had no market awareness. So, I thought
- 1:05:13it does regardless of what like the
- 1:05:15general health of market is,
- 1:05:17I these setups aren't going to work in a
- 1:05:18weak tape. You know what I mean? If the
- 1:05:20indexes are in a downtrend, um you know,
- 1:05:23there's not many leaders to trade like
- 1:05:25yeah, they could set up, but but they're
- 1:05:26not really going to work. They're going
- 1:05:27to have a much lower win rate. So, to me
- 1:05:30it's just developing like a market
- 1:05:31awareness model. And I as I've developed
- 1:05:35over the years, it's gotten a little bit
- 1:05:37more complex. But again, like if I had
- 1:05:39to say if I had to tell someone what's a
- 1:05:41simple market monitor that you can use,
- 1:05:44it would simply be
- 1:05:46is the Qs above a rising, you know, 21
- 1:05:49EMA or 50-day? These are going to be
- 1:05:51your best opportunities to make money.
- 1:05:54And again, and then we look here, this
- 1:05:56has just been in a big base. And again,
- 1:05:58there's been pockets of strength like I
- 1:06:00covered memory space stocks and some and
- 1:06:03some other things. Let me
- 1:06:06But on balance, there's been a lot of
- 1:06:08weakness. And that largely is due to the
- 1:06:11fact like we're just in a big range. And
- 1:06:13moving averages aren't as relevant in
- 1:06:15here. But again,
- 1:06:17so to say, the market's in a big range,
- 1:06:19it's not conducive
- 1:06:20>> I think undercut rally.
- 1:06:22>> Yes, exactly. And that would be the way
- 1:06:24to get in, right?
- 1:06:25You have
- 1:06:26>> [laughter]
- 1:06:26>> Exactly. And undercut
- 1:06:28>> Interesting.
- 1:06:28>> undercut rally, I'm not going to dive
- 1:06:30into this, but it's same thing as failed
- 1:06:32breakout, right? What did this give you
- 1:06:34here? An undercut rally. This is just
- 1:06:36inverse Qs.
- 1:06:38>> Okay, I got it.
- 1:06:39>> Did that answer the question? Um
- 1:06:40>> Yeah, yeah, I know it did. And there's
- 1:06:42the second part of the question was more
- 1:06:43so
- 1:06:45when now applying this like now,
- 1:06:47>> Yeah.
- 1:06:47>> what are the main hurdles that come to
- 1:06:49mind
- 1:06:50when trying to be effective in in its
- 1:06:52execution? Is there anything that kind
- 1:06:54of is something that you have to
- 1:06:56is not a constant, maybe a problem, but
- 1:06:58more so a constant
- 1:07:00thing that you really have to be sort of
- 1:07:02aware of or manage
- 1:07:04uh in terms of trying to execute this on
- 1:07:06a on a regular basis.
- 1:07:08>> Yeah,
- 1:07:09so one is
- 1:07:11being
- 1:07:13Executing this on a regular basis is
- 1:07:15being
- 1:07:17selective. And this isn't like directly
- 1:07:19answering your question, but it kind of
- 1:07:20comes in as in being selective in the
- 1:07:22sense of you only want to trade the best
- 1:07:24merchandise.
- 1:07:26Um and really the hardest part, I would
- 1:07:28say of executing this is sometimes
- 1:07:30a stock can look extended, like I said.
- 1:07:33>> Yeah.
- 1:07:33>> It it really can look extended. And what
- 1:07:36have people been saying for a while?
- 1:07:37Like, right? We look at the long-term
- 1:07:39chart. Like, the market's been up for
- 1:07:41quite some time. But, again, always
- 1:07:44understand when I'm taking the I always
- 1:07:46understand when I'm taking these setups
- 1:07:48before I buy the stock, I know what I'm
- 1:07:50willing to risk. So, even if I'm not
- 1:07:52Sometimes
- 1:07:53I'm not feeling confident about it, and
- 1:07:55I might hesitate, but I just need to be
- 1:07:57like, this is matching all my criteria.
- 1:07:59I'm going to try it, and if it's
- 1:08:01smaller, that's fine, and I know what
- 1:08:03I'm willing to lose if it doesn't work.
- 1:08:06Not I'm not going in thinking, "Oh, I
- 1:08:08think Sandisk is going to go to $700." I
- 1:08:10I never thought that. And
- 1:08:12and when I bought it at 135,
- 1:08:15I can't tell you I I had how many people
- 1:08:19are like, "You're buying Sandisk up
- 1:08:20here?" Like, yeah, I was. And now it
- 1:08:23doesn't look That didn't look very
- 1:08:25extended. But
- 1:08:26>> to kind of you have to go against maybe
- 1:08:28how you feel and generally, especially,
- 1:08:31and that's usually the case, what the
- 1:08:32sentiment or what other people's
- 1:08:34opinions or perceptions are.
- 1:08:35>> Exactly. No, that that's You described
- 1:08:38it really well because I can I can vi-
- 1:08:40vividly remember
- 1:08:42I I was like I was, you know, talking to
- 1:08:44the team and some traders that I talked
- 1:08:46to. I'm like, "Sandisk is a perfect
- 1:08:48high-tight flag." They're like, "It's
- 1:08:50insanely extended." And I was like, "It
- 1:08:52is, but, you know, so yeah." Not
- 1:08:55hesitating and trusting the work that
- 1:08:57I've done and that when I think I found
- 1:09:00potential winner, take it. And if if the
- 1:09:03market's shaky, then you size down or
- 1:09:05you don't take it, you know, using that
- 1:09:06awareness. I have a couple that I really
- 1:09:09like. So,
- 1:09:10Bloom Energy is one of my favorite.
- 1:09:13>> What?
- 1:09:13>> Sorry, I was
- 1:09:15I was in I'm invested in Bloom.
- 1:09:16>> Oh, nice. Awesome. So,
- 1:09:19>> Whenever I see anyone about you're the
- 1:09:20second person on Chart Pattern I
- 1:09:21actually mentioned it, so it makes me
- 1:09:23feel I don't know actually maybe if
- 1:09:24that's a sign to get out now, I don't
- 1:09:25know.
- 1:09:26>> Yeah, well,
- 1:09:26>> I'm messing around.
- 1:09:27>> I don't I don't own it anymore, so
- 1:09:29you're good there.
- 1:09:30>> [laughter]
- 1:09:30>> I don't know if that's good or bad
- 1:09:31actually following the the expert, you
- 1:09:33know.
- 1:09:34>> Um so, this is like one of my like
- 1:09:37favorite favorite examples because
- 1:09:40we have a 7-year base. What was the big
- 1:09:43theme of the market as around when this
- 1:09:45the bottleneck for energy for data
- 1:09:47centers?
- 1:09:48So, what stocks are what can we what
- 1:09:52what stocks can we trade that captures
- 1:09:53that theme? Bloom Energy stands out
- 1:09:55initially. And again,
- 1:09:57this isn't hitting my scans in this base
- 1:10:00at this time, but we're looking at this
- 1:10:03when I see it, I look at this base and
- 1:10:04say, "Okay, this stock's been doing
- 1:10:06nothing for 7 years. If it breaks out on
- 1:10:08a catalyst, it has the opportunity to
- 1:10:10really move." And so, at this time it
- 1:10:13also had 30% short interest. Again,
- 1:10:15which to me just adds conviction to the
- 1:10:17narrative. I remember
- 1:10:19I mean, a 7-year breakout with 30% short
- 1:10:21interest, like who who
- 1:10:23>> What does that mean? 30% short interest?
- 1:10:24>> So, it just means percentage of the
- 1:10:26float that's short. So, 30% of the float
- 1:10:29was short. And
- 1:10:31to me that just
- 1:10:32people that were short seemed way off
- 1:10:34sides. And if the stock started to move,
- 1:10:36they're going to have to get out. So,
- 1:10:37again,
- 1:10:38people might ask, "Well, Connor, in this
- 1:10:40base, this isn't hitting my scans."
- 1:10:43You're right until this day right here.
- 1:10:45And why did this hit my scans? Because
- 1:10:46this was a catalyst on highest volume
- 1:10:48ever. And this was a gigawatt fuel
- 1:10:51agreement agreement with American
- 1:10:53Electric Power. And what did this do?
- 1:10:56This
- 1:10:57traded up what was it? 60% on 500% above
- 1:11:02average volume. And again, people are
- 1:11:04like, I 60% in a day is a crazy move,
- 1:11:07right? And the character of the stock
- 1:11:08was still super choppy and it was still
- 1:11:11inside the base. So, I saw this catalyst
- 1:11:13and when I see these and if I don't
- 1:11:15think they're ready, I just tuck them
- 1:11:16away in what I call my universe
- 1:11:18watchlist. So, that I'll monitor
- 1:11:20throughout the day on the weekends and
- 1:11:22check in like how are these stocks
- 1:11:24developing. So, this it's on my radar,
- 1:11:26it's on my universe watchlist.
- 1:11:28And then again, it has another gap up on
- 1:11:31almost highest volume ever. Now, this
- 1:11:33time it's breaking out, it's gapping out
- 1:11:35of a base on volume, on a catalyst and
- 1:11:38this catalyst was they it was a
- 1:11:40partnership with the Oracle to power
- 1:11:42data centers. And again, this was up 22%
- 1:11:45on five on, you know, 3-400%
- 1:11:49above average volume. So, to me this
- 1:11:51isn't your Aunt Sally buying Bloom
- 1:11:53Energy. This is a change in character
- 1:11:56because
- 1:11:57Wall Street has to re-rate the stock. It
- 1:11:59had a legitimate catalyst and the
- 1:12:01volume's there to confirm.
- 1:12:03>> Yep.
- 1:12:03>> And I didn't buy it I didn't buy it on
- 1:12:05this gap either. Um, for whatever
- 1:12:08reason, I think this was the perfect
- 1:12:10entry to get into this stock. And then
- 1:12:12so,
- 1:12:13at this point I need to get into Bloom
- 1:12:15Energy. I want to find a way.
- 1:12:17>> Yep.
- 1:12:18>> And so, it continues to trend and at
- 1:12:20this point it's showing linearity. And
- 1:12:22then right here, August 22nd, I took
- 1:12:25this short flag break. You can see it
- 1:12:28had a big move up, linear, and then it
- 1:12:31undercut this kind of this gap and this
- 1:12:3410-day moving average, and then I bought
- 1:12:37this breakout at around 45, right over
- 1:12:40prior day's high. So, we're talking like
- 1:12:434% risk in a stock that is a very
- 1:12:46fast-moving stock. And so, then it
- 1:12:49continued to trend quite nicely. It rode
- 1:12:52the 10-day moving average very nicely
- 1:12:55and I I sold a lot on this gap down
- 1:12:57below the 10-day moving average and I
- 1:12:59don't remember exactly, but sometime in
- 1:13:02this area, I believe here, I was all out
- 1:13:04of the position.
- 1:13:05Um but and then again
- 1:13:08I never got back involved. I know people
- 1:13:11but it did show some some setups, but to
- 1:13:13me at this point
- 1:13:14it was trading too erratic and this was
- 1:13:17just too
- 1:13:18Of course, in hindsight, we can say this
- 1:13:21was kind of a base breakout. This was
- 1:13:23also, right? You kind of had
- 1:13:25kind of an undercut reclaim in this
- 1:13:27setup, although it didn't undercut it.
- 1:13:29Um but it kind of held this low, which
- 1:13:31was a pretty pivotal spot, right? Had
- 1:13:33volume.
- 1:13:33>> What about to the left there?
- 1:13:35>> Right here?
- 1:13:35>> Yeah.
- 1:13:36>> Yeah, this is also another one and
- 1:13:38that's was probably
- 1:13:40the best entry because, right? We
- 1:13:43were looking left on the chart. This was
- 1:13:45kind of a breakout. It held this spot,
- 1:13:47held this spot and then yeah, right here
- 1:13:48was a pretty good spot. And when I
- 1:13:50talked about the undercut rally, look
- 1:13:52how tight these two candles got on low
- 1:13:54volume. And this was during the holiday
- 1:13:56period, so
- 1:13:58that's also a reason why. So, it's kind
- 1:14:00of tougher to say, but this came back
- 1:14:02through and yeah, and it gave you a nice
- 1:14:05run depending on what your
- 1:14:08on what your uh system was rules, you
- 1:14:10know, you should be a winning trade
- 1:14:12regardless. And now it's pulling back to
- 1:14:14the 21 and you know, this could set up
- 1:14:17you know, potential
- 1:14:18undercut reclaim or pull back to
- 1:14:20ascending moving average, but and
- 1:14:22and they have earnings coming up also.
- 1:14:24So, that's Bloom Energy. I just want to
- 1:14:26cover a couple more big themes. If Do we
- 1:14:29have time?
- 1:14:29>> Of course, yeah.
- 1:14:30>> Awesome. So, what I've showed so far is
- 1:14:33like more so of like the fundamental
- 1:14:35stocks that had fundamentals, but what I
- 1:14:37want to talk about now is the theme at
- 1:14:40the big thematic run. So, in a hot
- 1:14:42market you every every hot market cycle
- 1:14:45you have a group of stocks that I call
- 1:14:47like it's a science fiction theme,
- 1:14:49right? Quantum computing is like 10
- 1:14:52years away to say the least, but why are
- 1:14:55people buying these stocks? Because
- 1:14:58they're buying based on the potential of
- 1:15:00quantum computing stocks moving forward
- 1:15:03and hype alone can drive stocks
- 1:15:06like so high.
- 1:15:07And again, like thing why I changed
- 1:15:10because you know, I
- 1:15:12the strict CAN SLIM criteria, you can
- 1:15:14you can never touch a quantum because
- 1:15:16there's no
- 1:15:17no quarterly earnings, no annual
- 1:15:19earnings growth that they lose money and
- 1:15:21again, these were like the worst of the
- 1:15:24worst stocks in the whole way. Everyone
- 1:15:27wanted to short them, but look at how
- 1:15:29many amazing opportunities that these
- 1:15:31gave and I'm just going to focus on this
- 1:15:33opportunity, but the same thing
- 1:15:35happened, you know, you had so many you
- 1:15:38had a huge consolidation and just look
- 1:15:40at the great opportunity trading
- 1:15:42opportunities that you had, you know,
- 1:15:44you had multiple entries. This was a
- 1:15:46perfect flag break.
- 1:15:48>> Yeah.
- 1:15:48>> Um think it's just, you know, what
- 1:15:51really where I got this was from
- 1:15:53Qumagie and he talks about it.
- 1:15:55It's so simple. You have a big move up,
- 1:15:57you have a pullback, you have an
- 1:15:59undercut, you build a higher low, you
- 1:16:01get tight and you have an expansion
- 1:16:04a breakout that day. Simple enough and
- 1:16:07so and again, um primarily I'm looking
- 1:16:10to position trade, but you know, these
- 1:16:12shorter term swing trades can be great
- 1:16:14for compounding and you know, you can
- 1:16:16buy a stock, right? You get, you know,
- 1:16:1830 40% in 5 days, you're selling most of
- 1:16:21it and leaving a little for
- 1:16:24for what could happen, but what I want
- 1:16:26to narrow down is is this setup right
- 1:16:28here because to me like
- 1:16:30I actually didn't catch it, um but these
- 1:16:32were like some of the perfect setups
- 1:16:35I've seen, so
- 1:16:37one, it fits all the criteria and at the
- 1:16:39same time, you know, how I mentioned
- 1:16:40like chart theme?
- 1:16:42>> Yeah.
- 1:16:42>> So, this was this was uh September 12th.
- 1:16:46So, let's look at what the other
- 1:16:49Quantums were doing at this time.
- 1:16:529 12. Doesn't this look like the exact
- 1:16:54same chart as IONQ? What about QBTS?
- 1:16:58Doesn't this look awfully similar at
- 1:17:00September 12th? And then
- 1:17:02that what I mentioned earlier is the
- 1:17:04leader laggard. Q- QUBT was the laggard
- 1:17:07because, right? This was uh 9 12.
- 1:17:11Um this never made a new high and
- 1:17:14obviously when it tried to break out,
- 1:17:15that's failed breakout. But, we're going
- 1:17:16to focus on IONQ. And again, you have a
- 1:17:19strong group. You're in a very strong
- 1:17:21momentum market. September of last year
- 1:17:25was extremely hot for themes. Like, they
- 1:17:27were running left and right and
- 1:17:29and although these had no fundamentals,
- 1:17:31you just had like the most perfect
- 1:17:33year-long base. You had an easy line and
- 1:17:36you got you had tightness on the right
- 1:17:37side of the base kind of forming that
- 1:17:39handle. And then again, look at the
- 1:17:41breakout confirming with volume and you
- 1:17:43get a very strong multi-day push never
- 1:17:46breaking the 5 SMA. And then another and
- 1:17:50then at the same time, there was another
- 1:17:51big story thematic group running at the
- 1:17:54same time. And that was Oklo. And again,
- 1:17:57this one is similar to Quantum. It has
- 1:17:59no fundamentals. It makes no money.
- 1:18:02Their product is 10 years away, but what
- 1:18:05was the big macro theme of the market?
- 1:18:07It was energy for AI. People are going
- 1:18:10to This was the high beta high flyer of
- 1:18:13that. It was basically the momentum
- 1:18:14trade. Like, you had your leaders that
- 1:18:16were like GE and BE. This was your high
- 1:18:18beta name, which can give great swing
- 1:18:20trades. Um and again,
- 1:18:23it almost virtually had the same setup
- 1:18:25as the Quantum names. Kind of same. It
- 1:18:28had a big multi-month base and you can
- 1:18:31see how it tightens up on these moving
- 1:18:33averages on the right side. And the the
- 1:18:35before it really started, that was like
- 1:18:37one of the tightest candles
- 1:18:39of [snorts] the run, and you can see it
- 1:18:41gave a really nice move. So, those are
- 1:18:42examples of, you know, more so thematic
- 1:18:46story stocks and whatnot, and that
- 1:18:49just because they don't have earnings or
- 1:18:52or um or sales growth, right? And
- 1:18:54they're not making money.
- 1:18:56The the the duration of the moves aren't
- 1:18:57going to be as long, but the velocity
- 1:19:00and speed in which they do them can be
- 1:19:02really fast. Like, these aren't going to
- 1:19:03trend for eight beaten raise quarters,
- 1:19:06most likely, but you can get kind of
- 1:19:08like performance booster swing trades in
- 1:19:10these periods.
- 1:19:12So, that was Quantum. There's a couple
- 1:19:14other another big one
- 1:19:16um cuz I by this time I assume all the
- 1:19:18viewers understand the criteria, so I'll
- 1:19:21be a little bit quicker on this.
- 1:19:23MP was another one, right?
- 1:19:26This day right here, 7/10, you had
- 1:19:28Department of Defense announce a
- 1:19:30multi-billion dollar
- 1:19:32um what was it? Partnership to
- 1:19:35accelerate
- 1:19:36production of rare earth magnets, and
- 1:19:39this was highest volume ever out of a
- 1:19:40long long period of consolidation, and
- 1:19:43this one was one that was
- 1:19:45pretty much a scratch trade for me. I
- 1:19:48you can see the setups. I tried I want
- 1:19:50to show this because not everyone works.
- 1:19:52Not everything works, and
- 1:19:54um and like I said, like our win rate is
- 1:19:56fluctuating between, you know,
- 1:19:5830 and
- 1:20:0030 and fit maybe 50% in a super hot
- 1:20:03market, and you know, we had your gap
- 1:20:05up, your EP per se. I remember I tried
- 1:20:08this out of this flag break
- 1:20:10consolidation. You had your two tight
- 1:20:12days, and it started to merge out. Very
- 1:20:14weak run. Came back in. I remember I you
- 1:20:18know, I sold the rest for break even
- 1:20:20around here, and then it offered me
- 1:20:22another setup that cuz I still like the
- 1:20:25I still like the stock. I liked
- 1:20:27I liked the characteristics. Maybe my
- 1:20:29timing was just wrong. And that's
- 1:20:31another thing is never be afraid to try
- 1:20:32to buy something back. You might feel
- 1:20:34like stupid like I bought something at
- 1:20:37100, I sold it at 95, and then I bought
- 1:20:40it at 110. But that's fine, you know,
- 1:20:42maybe you're just early and it needed to
- 1:20:44chop down. And then so this this was the
- 1:20:47pullback to the first touch the 50-day
- 1:20:49moving average and it built an extremely
- 1:20:51tight range right here. Right? To me
- 1:20:53this is like institutions accumulating
- 1:20:56and then you got this big move up and I
- 1:20:59trimmed some and ended up being, you
- 1:21:00know, a scratch trade as it broke back
- 1:21:03below this kind of pivot level. And then
- 1:21:05at this time, so this was per se your
- 1:21:07liquid leader and then simultaneously
- 1:21:11you had USAR which was like the high
- 1:21:13beta name and this was breaking out of a
- 1:21:16huge base on volume and a strong theme
- 1:21:19and this gave you a pretty crazy, you
- 1:21:22know, triple-digit gain in a matter of a
- 1:21:24couple days and there were some other
- 1:21:26names
- 1:21:27moving with it. CRML, huge move. Um
- 1:21:31UAMY, huge move. And um TMC was another
- 1:21:35one just off the top of my head. So like
- 1:21:37all this group was moving in tandem and
- 1:21:40and then once they started to top out,
- 1:21:41kind of the few the theme for these rare
- 1:21:44earth stocks kind of died down.
- 1:21:47>> What's the relevancy of like when the
- 1:21:48market's all hot and we're seeing
- 1:21:50volatility and there's ample
- 1:21:52opportunities? Like how do you then
- 1:21:54start to filter which ones you are
- 1:21:56willing to take and which ones, even if
- 1:21:58they still fit the criteria, look like a
- 1:22:00great sell opportunity and have a good
- 1:22:03uh you know, reward to risk ratio to it
- 1:22:05as well. Yeah, how do you kind of
- 1:22:08dictate which ones to take then right in
- 1:22:10those moments?
- 1:22:11>> So that's a really good question because
- 1:22:14I've had times where the market's super
- 1:22:16hot and I'm overwhelmed in terms of like
- 1:22:18it's so hard to keep track with all
- 1:22:20these like high movers and in a strong
- 1:22:22momentum cycle
- 1:22:24this all the what also this framework
- 1:22:26gave me is anyone can kind of throw a
- 1:22:28dart and make money, right? But in a hot
- 1:22:30market, if you want outperformance, you
- 1:22:32need to be in the best movers. And so
- 1:22:35that's obviously what prompted me to
- 1:22:36have this criteria, but so say I'm going
- 1:22:38into a trading day and I have Bloom
- 1:22:40Energy, SanDisk, um RGTI, IONQ all
- 1:22:45setting up and I and I have cash or say
- 1:22:47I have 20% cash. If Bloom and they all
- 1:22:50fit my criteria, if Bloom Energy kind of
- 1:22:52like triggers first, like the capital's
- 1:22:54going to go there.
- 1:22:56Um if and then if GEV triggers, the
- 1:22:59capital's going to go there. And then so
- 1:23:00kind of like what looks ready to go
- 1:23:03immediately. But again, like anything,
- 1:23:05I'm going to miss a lot of stocks all
- 1:23:07all the time. Um I'm just trying to put
- 1:23:10myself in a position to have the odds
- 1:23:12stacked in my favor and and be in the
- 1:23:15right one. But yeah, that that's
- 1:23:17definitely
- 1:23:19you know, a challenge in itself. And
- 1:23:21it's just kind of how the market cycle
- 1:23:23works. You have that challenge and then
- 1:23:25when the market sucks, it's you can't
- 1:23:27even find the stock you even think about
- 1:23:29buying.
- 1:23:31Uh
- 1:23:31>> And how do you keep track as well in
- 1:23:33terms of I know you mentioned about some
- 1:23:34you might look at the weekend and keep
- 1:23:36track in the Do you say it's the
- 1:23:37universe sort of stock list if you will
- 1:23:39or watch list?
- 1:23:40>> So.
- 1:23:41>> Yeah, so how do you how do you look to
- 1:23:43one identify, I know you mentioned the
- 1:23:44scanner earlier.
- 1:23:45>> Mhm.
- 1:23:46>> And then two, keep track, you know, once
- 1:23:48something is on your radar, yeah, what
- 1:23:50does that process look like for you?
- 1:23:51>> Great question. So
- 1:23:53to me the weekends are very important.
- 1:23:55The market's closed. I have a clear
- 1:23:56mind. I can just really sit down. It's
- 1:23:59quiet. I'm not worrying about the market
- 1:24:02and I can
- 1:24:03look at stocks. And so I have I I I use
- 1:24:06MarketWatch Surge for my screening and
- 1:24:09it's pretty simple. So I I have a bunch
- 1:24:11of different scans like, you know, price
- 1:24:13performance, some earning sales growth.
- 1:24:15I look at the top industry groups and I
- 1:24:17group all these stocks into a big watch
- 1:24:20list and then I go through all of And
- 1:24:22then, so when I'm going through these
- 1:24:23stocks, I sort them by industry group.
- 1:24:25So,
- 1:24:26I do it in alphabetical order. So, every
- 1:24:28weekend, like the aerospace and defense
- 1:24:30group is first, and I have like a
- 1:24:32two-panel. I have my charts that I'm
- 1:24:34looking at, and then
- 1:24:35I have on another screen, um like just a
- 1:24:38Word document, and I have these groups,
- 1:24:40and I say, "Okay, there's Kratos,
- 1:24:42Karmen, FTAI." I'm just rambling, like
- 1:24:45different aerospace, and I put them on a
- 1:24:46list, and so I'm like, "Okay, I'm seeing
- 1:24:49like eight to nine aerospace and defense
- 1:24:51stocks with similar chart patterns
- 1:24:53showing relative strength. I need to
- 1:24:55watch this going forward." And so, I go
- 1:24:57through the whole watch list, and I make
- 1:24:59what I call like my thematic watch list,
- 1:25:02and I typically like to tweet it every
- 1:25:03Sunday. Pe- people like it quite a lot.
- 1:25:05Right. It ta- It takes me some time, and
- 1:25:07then
- 1:25:08and then in that list, I will go through
- 1:25:11them and kind of see what I think's
- 1:25:12actionable and ready. And then, you
- 1:25:14know, during the week, um you know,
- 1:25:16watching the markets all day, so I'm
- 1:25:18reading the news. I'm I'm pretty in
- 1:25:20tune. I do this for a living, right?
- 1:25:22We're managing portfolios, so I can read
- 1:25:25a lot. I can stay with it more than some
- 1:25:27other people that say they're working a
- 1:25:29job.
- 1:25:29>> Cool.
- 1:25:30>> And then, I keep a monitor with all
- 1:25:32these groups, and
- 1:25:34it's like I can just like during the
- 1:25:36trading day, I can just see like where's
- 1:25:37money going in, where's money coming
- 1:25:39out, and it gives me a fe- a feel for
- 1:25:41the market and like what I would say
- 1:25:43like
- 1:25:44what sectors are leading the market. And
- 1:25:46then, you know, through those list, I
- 1:25:49then have my universe watch list that I
- 1:25:51think names that could be actionable
- 1:25:53coming up. And then, every night before
- 1:25:55the market open, I have my actionable
- 1:25:58focus list. I try to always premeditated
- 1:26:01trades only, and that's just due to the
- 1:26:03fact that you're virtually sitting in
- 1:26:04front of the casino all day. So, if you
- 1:26:06have this alert going off, this alert,
- 1:26:08no plan, you're just going to buy it
- 1:26:10randomly with no plan, and night before,
- 1:26:13I have my plan, and I
- 1:26:16obviously there's set And then like the
- 1:26:18earnings catalyst setups I'm watch I'm
- 1:26:20scanning in the morning cuz those are
- 1:26:22happening in the morning or after hours
- 1:26:24and then I'm just trying to only um
- 1:26:27take pre-meditated trade trade setups.
- 1:26:29And yeah, that's kind of my process. And
- 1:26:31like I said, and then every night I go
- 1:26:33through all these lists. I go through my
- 1:26:35universe watch list. I'll run a couple
- 1:26:37like up on volume scanners to see like
- 1:26:40if something catches my eye. And then
- 1:26:42it's about making my focus list and you
- 1:26:45know, having a plan for the next day.
- 1:26:46Yeah.
- 1:26:47>> Both of that. So, the next ones I want
- 1:26:49to talk about is how you can apply this
- 1:26:52to um it doesn't have to just be stock,
- 1:26:55right? This this setup occurs in
- 1:26:57commodities,
- 1:26:58everything. And it's just
- 1:27:00there's not necessarily earnings growth,
- 1:27:02but there's a catalyst. And to me gold
- 1:27:05and silver
- 1:27:06again, they they hit every criteria. So,
- 1:27:09we zoom out to the monthly and I'm going
- 1:27:11to make this a log scale real quick so
- 1:27:14it can see so it zooms out. So,
- 1:27:17this is like one of the like the most
- 1:27:19obvious
- 1:27:22This was an extremely obvious pattern.
- 1:27:26This was a decade-long cup and handle
- 1:27:28base.
- 1:27:29>> Yeah, I remember that.
- 1:27:29>> Enlightening this. I remember I remember
- 1:27:32what the sentiment was for when this
- 1:27:34broke out and it was people were saying
- 1:27:37this is too obvious. Everyone from here
- 1:27:39to Hong Kong saw a decade-long cup and
- 1:27:43handle base, but um and again, this gold
- 1:27:47moves quite linear out of long-term
- 1:27:49patterns and just kind of the character
- 1:27:51of this stock.
- 1:27:53Literally dead money for over a decade
- 1:27:55until it wasn't. And how and then this
- 1:27:58was your clean break out here out of
- 1:28:00this
- 1:28:00>> Yeah.
- 1:28:01>> 10-year cup and handle weekly monthly
- 1:28:03base. And I'm going to take log scale
- 1:28:05off.
- 1:28:06And so, this provided so many different
- 1:28:09entries along the along the way and
- 1:28:13basically what what the big driver was
- 1:28:16for for commodities and you know, it's
- 1:28:18really like the debasement trade. People
- 1:28:21the dollar was falling off a cliff.
- 1:28:24People needed somewhere to
- 1:28:26they needed a store of value for their
- 1:28:28money and gold made a lot of sense. And
- 1:28:31so you have that is a is a pretty big
- 1:28:32catalyst and again,
- 1:28:35you know, um the AI race this
- 1:28:37administration is all in or nothing to
- 1:28:40win and really the debt is just going
- 1:28:42parabolic. So feel like I need I need so
- 1:28:45I need hedge per se cuz the dollar. And
- 1:28:47so that that was really your catalyst.
- 1:28:50And 2020 about early 2024 was when this
- 1:28:54move really started. And again, the
- 1:28:56narrative wasn't as strong,
- 1:28:58but you just had a really clean base
- 1:29:00breakout like simple good above this
- 1:29:02line, bad below and it never revis
- 1:29:05revisits this breakout level the whole
- 1:29:07time. And so it keeps
- 1:29:10gives a huge trend again, right? This is
- 1:29:13a huge move for gold and obviously you
- 1:29:15can trade GLD's the ETF, but in terms of
- 1:29:18like ATR and liquidity gold there's so
- 1:29:21many products you can trade, right? You
- 1:29:22can trade futures, which is huge
- 1:29:24leverage. You can trade options and then
- 1:29:26you have like levered miners like tons
- 1:29:29and tons of different mining stocks that
- 1:29:31made huge moves as well. But for for
- 1:29:33this we're just going to go over the
- 1:29:34ETF. And this was um this was another
- 1:29:38perfect multi-month base. Look how tight
- 1:29:41it got. Look at the moving average is
- 1:29:42extremely coiled.
- 1:29:44Um bounced off the 50-day moving average
- 1:29:47and then, you know, again,
- 1:29:49it looked extended here, but, you know,
- 1:29:51it continued to go higher and I had a
- 1:29:53couple trades. I owned gold a couple
- 1:29:55times back here, but really I got
- 1:29:58involved again on this base breakout.
- 1:30:00And again, it's 2 years into the move,
- 1:30:02but it set up a pretty nice pattern and
- 1:30:05And is when we finally started to go
- 1:30:07parabolic. Um I think it was like 12 ATR
- 1:30:10above the 50-day moving average.
- 1:30:12Sold some on the way and I sold the rest
- 1:30:14on this break and no idea where gold
- 1:30:16goes now, but sentiment indicators were
- 1:30:19flashing and then also
- 1:30:21like gold is trading like almost like a
- 1:30:23meme stock right now. This is
- 1:30:26unprecedented volatility right now and
- 1:30:29>> It means in line though with like as you
- 1:30:31say the sentiment globally that we seem
- 1:30:33to be in a very
- 1:30:35interesting position. Like the US seems
- 1:30:37really strong at some points.
- 1:30:39>> Yep.
- 1:30:39>> And then sometimes it feels extremely
- 1:30:41weak and
- 1:30:42and that seems to be quite a interesting
- 1:30:44flow we keep seeing
- 1:30:45>> Exactly.
- 1:30:46>> over recent year or what? Say recent
- 1:30:47years, maybe the last 12 to 24 months.
- 1:30:50>> Mhm.
- 1:30:50>> This uh peaks and troughs, it's it's
- 1:30:53obviously leading to something uh either
- 1:30:55you know, more strength to the dollar
- 1:30:57eventually or whether something uh
- 1:30:59transitions. Obviously that would be a
- 1:31:00dramatic transition. The Ray Dalio
- 1:31:02transition, right?
- 1:31:03>> Changing world order, right?
- 1:31:05>> But it seems like you're right. So like
- 1:31:06gold and silver's moves
- 1:31:08you know, it's kind of reflected
- 1:31:10sentiment out there.
- 1:31:11>> Yep.
- 1:31:12>> And then you see
- 1:31:13obviously countries and and their gold
- 1:31:15stockpiles.
- 1:31:16>> Yep. Yeah, in particular like China and
- 1:31:17Russia for example.
- 1:31:19>> Yep.
- 1:31:19>> Um accumulated so much and then I think
- 1:31:21they restricted exports around the time
- 1:31:23when they started going parabolic as
- 1:31:25well. So there's all these factors and
- 1:31:27I'm bearish. I'm far from like a macro
- 1:31:30or a fundamental sort of base trader.
- 1:31:32>> Right.
- 1:31:33>> if I know that, that means that the
- 1:31:34people who do know, probably you and and
- 1:31:36the the likes who are more in the
- 1:31:38trenches and and really ingrained into
- 1:31:41you know, the research and the
- 1:31:42understanding.
- 1:31:43>> Yep.
- 1:31:44>> probably know a lot more deeper
- 1:31:45deeper levels and layers to the
- 1:31:47conversation.
- 1:31:48>> Yeah, and and that brings me to
- 1:31:51something I want to also touch on is
- 1:31:53you know, I'm I'm talking about like the
- 1:31:55fundamental, the story and stuff that
- 1:31:56I'm looking for. Now with AI, this is
- 1:31:59like you know, you can do it very quick
- 1:32:01and it's not like for
- 1:32:03I'm not reading through 10 Ks. I'm not,
- 1:32:05you know, making up my own model. It's
- 1:32:07really just about, you know, having a
- 1:32:09general thing, like what you're just
- 1:32:11saying about gold. It didn't take a
- 1:32:12genius to put together that, and when
- 1:32:14you couple that with the chart, you
- 1:32:15know, you kind of have some conviction,
- 1:32:17and and you have some like edge to make
- 1:32:20the trade.
- 1:32:21And then silver, same thing, right? You
- 1:32:23had a massive, massive base um
- 1:32:26during this times it started break out,
- 1:32:28like the gold to silver ratio, um was
- 1:32:31that like a record? It was like at a
- 1:32:33point where it typically silver tends to
- 1:32:35start to outperform. So, you just had an
- 1:32:37enormous base.
- 1:32:39I'm seeing gold breaking out. It's
- 1:32:41logical to think that silver might join
- 1:32:43the party, and I
- 1:32:46in [snorts] turbo taxation
- 1:32:49I bought silver right around here.
- 1:32:51Same setup, again.
- 1:32:52I didn't have it back here, but to me I
- 1:32:54wouldn't really I wouldn't have held
- 1:32:56through it was it was very choppy,
- 1:32:57right? I want the linear linear
- 1:33:00>> Run of the move, yeah.
- 1:33:01>> Yep. And so, what do we get here?
- 1:33:03Big move up, we're getting super
- 1:33:05compressed, price is getting coiled. You
- 1:33:08know, your volume's drying up, simple
- 1:33:10breakout through this line, and for for
- 1:33:13silver, I mean this is a huge, huge
- 1:33:16move, and then again
- 1:33:19or and then again it it puts in another
- 1:33:22perfect base, and this is also like a
- 1:33:24VCP base, which is just some
- 1:33:26characteristics that you'll find in the
- 1:33:28base. So, we look at this first
- 1:33:30pullback.
- 1:33:31It's about, you know, 15% We we look at
- 1:33:34this second pullback, it's about 6%, and
- 1:33:37then on the right final contraction of
- 1:33:39the right side of the base
- 1:33:41range is getting tightening, and to me
- 1:33:43that's like supply and demand.
- 1:33:45Um you know,
- 1:33:47the there tends to be a lot of demand
- 1:33:49for the stock if it breaks out. It gave
- 1:33:50you another perfect base breakout.
- 1:33:53Again, insane move for silver, and um
- 1:33:56was selling across the way and on this
- 1:33:58day I sold the rest of the silver cuz
- 1:34:01same thing with gold. Unprecedented
- 1:34:03volatility. Um, had already a massive
- 1:34:06trend. You know, how much meat are we
- 1:34:09looking to take off the bone at this
- 1:34:10point in the move?
- 1:34:12And yeah, definitely a polarizing a
- 1:34:14crazy
- 1:34:16you know, a crazy move in the markets. I
- 1:34:18know a lot of people that were really
- 1:34:20trying to short these for a while and
- 1:34:24you know, the trend Right, yeah. It was
- 1:34:26I don't think anyone had on their bingo
- 1:34:28card
- 1:34:29gold and silver doing this. And then
- 1:34:31another thing that you kind of just said
- 1:34:33in terms of group, right? We have copper
- 1:34:35breaking out of a massive base. We have
- 1:34:37palladium. Look at this run on
- 1:34:39palladium.
- 1:34:41Um, or sorry, that was platinum
- 1:34:42palladium and then, you know, we can end
- 1:34:44on what's going now.
- 1:34:47XLE, which is energy out of a
- 1:34:48decade-long base and is this going to
- 1:34:51play catch-up to some of the other
- 1:34:53commodities? We shall see.
- 1:34:54>> We shall.
- 1:34:55Connor, it's been an absolute pleasure
- 1:34:57and and what a step-by-step process, you
- 1:35:00know, really indicating how we should be
- 1:35:02thinking and following the markets, you
- 1:35:04know, on a even if a position and and
- 1:35:07swing trading, it really is open to all,
- 1:35:09even if you're not like a
- 1:35:11well, one of a professional money
- 1:35:12manager.
- 1:35:13>> Yep.
- 1:35:13>> Whether you're
- 1:35:14um, you're trading large capital or not,
- 1:35:16whether you day trade, this is actually
- 1:35:19something that will help you alongside
- 1:35:20that. Um,
- 1:35:22to really increase your wealth and
- 1:35:24increase your understanding on uh, the
- 1:35:27sort of macro and stock side of things
- 1:35:29because I think anyone who is day
- 1:35:30trading, you know, futures, forex,
- 1:35:32whatever it may be, you should be
- 1:35:34understanding this cuz this is as
- 1:35:37simple in the sense that, you know, in
- 1:35:39in a lot of these uh, you know, futures
- 1:35:41traders out there got such complex
- 1:35:43intraday systems and well, this is
- 1:35:46literal chart patterns and breakouts and
- 1:35:49volume and
- 1:35:50a lot of the time you will have, just
- 1:35:52from being a trader, a understanding of
- 1:35:55themes, a good understanding of the
- 1:35:57temperature of the market.
- 1:35:58>> Yeah.
- 1:35:58>> So, this is how you can, even on the
- 1:36:00side, as a trader, really elevate your
- 1:36:03overall net worth over a compounding
- 1:36:06result over time. And this is the system
- 1:36:08that's going to allow you to identify
- 1:36:10those super cycle stock
- 1:36:13journeys, if you will. And again, it's
- 1:36:15just you know, a great point by Connor
- 1:36:16there. You don't need to get the bottom.
- 1:36:18>> Right.
- 1:36:19>> That's ideal.
- 1:36:19>> Right, but
- 1:36:20>> Yeah, you don't need to get the bottom.
- 1:36:21You If you end up, you know, by
- 1:36:22understanding the general sentiment of
- 1:36:24the market, and it may seem extended,
- 1:36:26you can still get some really great
- 1:36:27returns. Cuz even as we talked about, a
- 1:36:29couple hundred percent returns a year
- 1:36:31is, you know, amazing.
- 1:36:33>> Yeah.
- 1:36:33>> Even if it was, you know, you're getting
- 1:36:35a good base hits of 20, 30%. They all
- 1:36:38compound.
- 1:36:39>> Exactly.
- 1:36:40>> Um so, it's absolutely incredible,
- 1:36:41Connor. I'm super, super excited to get
- 1:36:43this out there. Everyone at home, drop a
- 1:36:44comment with your biggest takeaway from
- 1:36:46this episode. Any questions you might
- 1:36:47have, throw them in the chat there.
- 1:36:49We'll check them out. Uh but, make sure
- 1:36:51you hit like. Make sure you hit
- 1:36:52subscribe. Other episodes are on screen
- 1:36:54right now. We'll probably have Ted's
- 1:36:55episode, and probably Pradeep episode
- 1:36:57right here on screen, so you can check
- 1:36:59those out. But,
- 1:37:01links for Connor will be in the
- 1:37:02description below. This has been Chart
- 1:37:04Fanatics. Take care.
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