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Commanders vs. Giants Statistical Breakdown (Thursday Night Football Week 10) — Transcript

by Max Loeb (Loeb's Leads) · 3,320 words · 497 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Washington Commanders, NEW YORK GIANTS,
0:01THURSDAY night football, everything you
0:02need to know in 15 minutes. If you've
0:04never been here before, welcome. My name
0:06is Max. I make these for every primetime
0:07game as well as every game on Sunday to
0:09give you a unique edge looking at run
0:11scheme metrics, coverage data, and
0:12trends that nobody talks about. If you
0:14enjoy that stuff, hit the subscribe
0:15button so you don't miss anymore of this
0:16content. We're on the road to 50k. We
0:18are almost there and make sure to leave
0:20a like if you enjoy it as well. Helps me
0:21out a bunch. Let's get into this
0:22breakdown. Couple big injury notes.
0:24Starting center for the Washington
0:25Commanders, Lucas Patrick, Tuesday DNP,
0:28still as of right now is in concussion
0:30protocol. May not be able to play
0:32Thursday night. It is a shorter week.
0:33Trey Lamberts was limited. On the Giants
0:35side, Abdul Carter, Colton Hood limited.
0:37Seemed like Colton Hood's thing kind of
0:38came out of the blue. Not sure what the
0:39status will be for Thursday. Abdul
0:41Carter, I would venture to guess is
0:42going to play, but if anything changes,
0:44obviously we'll let you know in the
0:45comments. We'll pin something. Looking
0:47at the Commanders defense, few different
0:48data outliers. Fourth most pass attempts
0:50allowed, fourth most pass yards allowed.
0:52It's tougher to run on this team. I'll
0:54show you why in the data behind it here
0:55in a second, but they've been pretty
0:57good against the run all year long.
0:58There really hasn't been a ton of teams
0:59that have been able to take advantage of
1:01them on the ground. And then when
1:03they're throwing the ball, they're
1:04having a lot of success because the
1:05Commanders have not defended well and
1:07they play a two-high shell a lot of the
1:09time, right? 10th most running back
1:11receptions allowed, third most wide
1:12receiver receptions allowed, but only
1:14the only 153 wide receiver yards per
1:17game allowed. That's usually a sign of
1:19zone. Commanders are balanced, but it's
1:20a lot of middle field open. You're going
1:22to see a lot of cover two and a lot of
1:23cover four. That's what they do. You can
1:24see most middle field open in the NFL,
1:27top 10 in both cover two and cover four.
1:30That's the Commanders coverage. Now, in
1:32terms of the real edge against the
1:34Commanders, it's against the tight end.
1:36Eighth most tight end receptions
1:37allowed, fourth most tight end receiving
1:39yards allowed in the NFL. And you go
1:41look at some of these performances
1:42against them. There's been some
1:44explosive games. 77 from Goddard, 69
1:47from AJ Barner. Obviously Isaiah Likely,
1:49we'll talk about that in a second, had
1:51that 94-yard two-touchdown game in week
1:53five with Jameson at quarterback. Seems
1:54like JJ McCarthy is going to start this
1:56one. Cam Scatabo seems like he's healthy
1:58as well. George Kittle, 569 a touchdown,
2:00and then even Eli Stowers had 53 while
2:03Goddert had 30 next to him. Like,
2:04there's been a lot of production at the
2:06tight end position
2:07against this Commanders defense. In
2:09terms of where they're allowing a lot of
2:11targets, they're top 12 in running back
2:13target rate allowed and then top 10 in
2:15slot target rate allowed, which is
2:17really interesting. That slot target
2:19rate is very different than inline tight
2:21end target rate. They're bottom five in
2:23inline tight end target rate. But you
2:25look at some of those performances
2:26against them, not a lot of these guys
2:28are true dominant inline guys. Like
2:30Isaiah Likely's basically a slot wide
2:32receiver. Kittle's going to run a good
2:33amount of routes from the slot as well.
2:35Dallas Goddert going to run a good
2:36amount of routes from the slot. These
2:38aren't true, you know, inline guys.
2:40These are dynamic pass catchers who have
2:42been able to take advantage. They're
2:43just outside the top 12 and outside wide
2:46receiver target rate allowed. So
2:48teams are pushing the ball down the
2:50field on the outside. We saw some
2:51success with Malik Neighbors against
2:52them on week five. He had 11 catches, I
2:54believe, as well, more than 100 yards.
2:55But the bottom line is it's between the
2:57hashes. It's usually tight ends, but
2:59it's slot guys. And Neighbors is going
3:00to run a bunch of routes from the slot
3:02as well. Now overall, what the Giants
3:04have done, we talked about this walking
3:05into the offseason, part of the reason
3:07we were so high on Isaiah Likely, they
3:08love to throw the ball to the slot. Top
3:10five slot target rate, also a top 12
3:13outside wide receiver target rate. You
3:14see the two yellow highlights there.
3:16That's a decent match, but the slot
3:17target rate and the Commander slot
3:19target rate allowed is the big thing to
3:21note in this game. The Giants, J.J.
3:23McCarthy, even Jameis Winston, if it's
3:25Jameis Winston at a point in the game,
3:27they want to keep the ball between the
3:28hashes.
3:30Formationally, it's easier for the
3:31Giants to do that. Their best patch pass
3:33catchers run a bunch of routes between
3:34the hashes. That's what they want to do.
3:36The Giants want to keep the ball between
3:38the hashes. Now against middle field
3:39open, which again, the Commanders are
3:40running the most in the NFL, really
3:42against every coverage, it's going to be
3:44Neighbors and Likely to some extent.
3:46They are tied one against middle field
3:48open, but Isaiah Likely sees an uptick.
3:51That makes me believe that this matchup
3:53will probably be a little more
3:54beneficial for him than it will be for
3:57Neighbors. Not to say I don't think
3:58Neighbors has a good game. I do. I I
4:00both these guys take advantage of a
4:02commander's secondary, but I do think
4:04the uptick for Isaiah likely is worth
4:07talking about. Now, the run scheme
4:09metrics for this game. Commanders
4:10defense overall is pretty solid, right?
4:13You can see in my note here, right? They
4:14went from 11th fewest yards per carry
4:16allowed the first few weeks of the
4:18season prior to the Javon Kinlaw injury.
4:20Actually the seventh fewest at 3.71 and
4:24then before that eighth fewest yards per
4:25game at 95.4 to 14th fewest at 107.5. So
4:30right now they're kind of hovering
4:31around those areas, but still you know
4:33pretty solid. The Commander's front
4:35seven has been
4:36pretty good overall, worse as of late
4:39overall, but it's because teams are more
4:41willing to run against them. Now the
4:42Giants offense, sixth most rush attempts
4:45per game. They're not wildly efficient.
4:47Cam Scat boost probably going to be
4:48leading the charge here and it's Devon
4:50Singletary behind him. What's
4:51interesting is Chris De Rosiers last
4:53week against the Philadelphia Eagles
4:55showed something. You saw a little bit
4:56of a spark there. You saw a little bit
4:58of a explosion if you will. Maybe he
5:00gets some more touches in this game. I'm
5:02just not 100% convinced that he does.
5:04Now again, they're only 17th in rush
5:06yards per game. They're not super
5:08efficient in terms of yards per carry,
5:10but there are games where the Giants are
5:12straight up going to put the ball in the
5:14belly of Cam Scat above really whoever
5:15the hot hand is in the back field and
5:18just ride it. That's what they can do
5:20because
5:21that's the brand of football that
5:22they've you know become accustomed to.
5:25Like Cam Scat boost last game against
5:26Houston prior to the hamstring injury,
5:28he had 17 carries for 124 yards against
5:31a really good run defense. That makes me
5:33very optimistic for this Giants rush
5:35offense walking into this game, but as
5:37you can see there's still been some
5:39other big touch games for Scat above.
5:40You got 18. You got 16 I guess but 23,
5:4419, 15. New Orleans was you know the
5:47soft benching whatever happened in that
5:48game and then last week Devon Singletary
5:50though was very inefficient. 21 for 31
5:53like that's what the Giants want to do.
5:55They want to run the ball. The only
5:57thing is the commanders have been pretty
5:58good and schematically the only concept
6:01the Giants are above average in is an
6:03inside zone and the commanders are
6:05bottom 12 against it. So there's a
6:07little bit of a scheme match there. And
6:10you go look at the game against the
6:11Washington Commanders. It was 13 for 59.
6:14It wasn't anything really crazy. But
6:15again,
6:17Najee Harris was on the team. Tyrone
6:19Tracy was out there. But the Giants
6:20wanted to throw the ball in that game.
6:22Like James Winston had 326 yards and
6:25three touchdowns.
6:26People want to throw the ball against
6:28the Washington Commanders because they
6:29haven't shown that they can defend the
6:30pass, which I think is the most
6:32important thing to know in this game.
6:33Now,
6:34a couple other notes.
6:35Giants offense is allowing the third
6:37most sacks in the NFL, 3.4 per game. But
6:40Washington only had two sacks against
6:41the Giants last game. And again, this
6:43defensive line a little more banged up
6:44than it was in week five. Now,
6:47can they still get after J. J. McCarthy?
6:49Yes. Is the Giants offensive line
6:51holding up great in pass protection? No.
6:53Not so far, right? But I do think it's
6:56worth noting that they found enough
6:58against Washington the last time they
6:59played. And Washington frankly is not as
7:01healthy along the defensive line. So
7:03that's a big note. And then after the
7:04Niners game and the Javon Kinlaw injury,
7:06Commanders run defense dramatically
7:07changed. Again, they're better in
7:09efficiency, but teams are running the
7:10ball a little more on them. I still
7:11think Scatabu gets a heavy dose in this
7:13game, especially because and this is,
7:14you know, probably my biggest point
7:15here, weather. Weather, weather,
7:17weather, weather, weather. This is
7:18supposed to be, at least at the time I'm
7:20recording this, a potential rain game.
7:22So I'm obviously watching Isaiah Likely.
7:25You go back and look at that game
7:26against the Washington Commanders in
7:27week five and it was a
7:30ridiculous showing from Isaiah Likely.
7:3211 catches, 94 yards and two touchdowns.
7:35He dominates between the slot between
7:37the hashes in the slot, excuse me.
7:38That's what he does. Malik Neighbors
7:40though still had 11 catches for 121
7:42yards. There really isn't too many other
7:43players to highlight on the New York
7:44Giants offense right now. The reality is
7:46it goes through both those guys, but
7:48because of the uptick in
7:50target rate for Isaiah Likely against
7:51middle field open and overall the
7:53production allowed to tight ends more
7:55than receivers, I'm a little more
7:57confident in a bigger game, at least
7:59compared to his averages,
8:01than for Malik Neighbors. Now looking at
8:02the Giants defense, they're playing
8:03really well. Fifth fewest yards allowed
8:05in the NFL, 10th fewest pass attempts
8:07allowed, fewest pass yards allowed,
8:09third fewest running back receptions
8:10allowed, fourth fewest running back
8:11receiving receiving yards allowed,
8:13eighth fewest wide receiver receiving
8:15yards allowed, 11th most tight end
8:17receptions allowed, but the sixth fewest
8:19tight end receiving yards allowed. The
8:21only area they're really, really, really
8:23struggling in is when teams get in the
8:24red zone. Almost 80% of trips in the red
8:27zone are touchdowns against the Giants.
8:28That is not good. That is not good. But
8:31teams aren't always getting there.
8:32They're not getting into the red zone a
8:33ton. In terms of what the Donard Wilson
8:35defense does, they are
8:37moderately balanced in terms of their
8:39middle field closed and zone, but
8:40they're top 10 in man to man. They're
8:42going to play a lot of man to man.
8:44They're going to get in your face.
8:44They're going to blitz. They're going to
8:45cause pressure. That's what they do.
8:47They're going to force your receivers to
8:48beat you one on one. Now, there's one
8:50thing that
8:52I'm not going to say the Giants
8:54you know, could lose the game for the
8:55Giants, but could provide for some big
8:57chunk plays and the man to man has a lot
8:59to do with it. And I'll talk about why
9:00here in a second. But
9:02the target rate, bottom five running
9:04back target rate allowed, top five slot
9:06target rate allowed, and then a top 12
9:07outside wide receiver target rate
9:08allowed. If you were subscribed this
9:10offseason, you heard me talk about
9:11Jayden Daniels, even Stefon Diggs, and
9:12how I I loved that addition for them.
9:15That's what he wants to do. Jayden
9:16Daniels loves throwing the ball to the
9:18slot. Last season, top 10 slot rate.
9:20This season, top five slot rate.
9:22He doesn't really throw it anywhere
9:23else. That's the reality of it. And
9:25against man to man,
9:27you know, Van Jefferson is the number
9:28one target in a smaller sample size,
9:30then it's Rashad White, then it's Stefon
9:32Diggs. This is all after the Terry
9:33McLaurin injury. So I I look at this and
9:36where Jayden Daniels wants to go with
9:38the ball, he wants to keep it between
9:39the hashes. The Giants are getting
9:41targeted between the hashes
9:43with a top five rate. And the Commanders
9:45didn't put out any film of Stefon Diggs
9:47against them.
9:49Diggs didn't play when they played in
9:50week five. To me, that is a big edge for
9:52the Washington Commanders. It's one of
9:53two big edges for the Washington
9:55Commanders. In terms of the run scheme
9:56metrics,
9:58the Giants defense overall is not great
10:00right now. 12th most rush yards per game
10:02allowed at 123.6, sixth most yards per
10:05carry at 4.69. However,
10:08you go look at some of the game logs
10:09against the New York Giants on the
10:10ground.
10:12There has been
10:13no 100 yard rusher.
10:15You don't have anybody who's cracked 90
10:17yards, right? Tyrod Williams had
10:19the big game in week two and that was
10:21kind of a pounding thing where
10:23Giants really couldn't do anything. They
10:24just had the ball all game.
10:26Tony Pollard, you know, 17 for 74,
10:28nothing crazy. Obviously Bill Cross had
10:30the big touchdown and 11 for 82 against
10:32them. He's not playing in this game. And
10:34these last couple of games the Giants
10:35have been much better against the run.
10:36They were very good against Philly and
10:38Saquon Barkley, less than two yards a
10:39carry. Houston's never going to be super
10:41efficient running the football, but
10:43Woody Marks had 19 for 66. It's like
10:45three yards a carry. And then Cam Akers
10:46had 20 for 70 yards. It's like three
10:48yards a carry. The Giants have been
10:50better against running backs as of late,
10:52but overall it's it's where they've
10:54struggled. However, those rush rush yard
10:57numbers are partially inflated because
10:58it's not just running backs, it's
11:00quarterbacks. There have been
11:02quarterbacks that have some serious
11:03success on the ground against the
11:05Giants. Jayden Daniels 100 yards on the
11:06ground against them. Joe Milton had a
11:08big scramble. And that to me is the edge
11:11for the Commanders in this game.
11:13When you play man to man,
11:15your back is towards the quarterback
11:17because you're worried about the guy
11:18that you're covering.
11:20The Giants, and I'll show you the
11:21numbers here in a second, are very
11:23susceptible to big scrambles. And Jayden
11:26Daniels loves to scramble. Now, in terms
11:28of the overall run game, the Commanders
11:3011th most rush yards per game, eighth
11:32highest yards per carry. Commanders are
11:34better in man gap, the Giants are worse
11:35in man gap, but there really is nothing
11:37crazy. There's no big schematic edge.
11:39And you know, with the potential
11:40starting center out, you got to take all
11:43of that run data with a grain of salt
11:44for Washington. Now,
11:46the overall note here that I have,
11:49slot route runners,
11:50Chico Okonkwo, Stefon Diggs. And it's
11:53interesting because Okonkwo is obviously
11:54a tight end, right? But he
11:57kind of gets a similar look, at least at
11:58my eye,
12:00to Isaiah Likely. He's running like
12:02almost 60% about 60% of his routes from
12:05the slot. Like he's more of a slot
12:07receiver than a true in-line tight end.
12:08Isaiah Likely is running like 80% of his
12:10routes to keep in perspective, but he is
12:12more of a true slot receiver than
12:15an inline tight end. And I do think, you
12:18know, you look at some of the game logs
12:19against the Giants and you see some of
12:21this tight end production this year. It
12:23hasn't been
12:24crazy,
12:26but he did have 60 yards against them.
12:28And if I'm not mistaken, that is the
12:29high high against the Giants all year
12:31was 60 yards. So
12:33I mean, it is worth noting that
12:35he is a slot guy. He's he's explosive. I
12:38think Diggs is the guy. And then Antonio
12:40Williams is running some routes from the
12:42slot. It's just a lower percentage. He's
12:44running a lot of routes in general after
12:46the post McLaren or post McLaren injury.
12:49About 30-ish percent from the slot. He's
12:51just running a lot of routes, so that
12:52number is going to be up there overall.
12:53But the big note here,
12:55Washington's offense is fifth best in
12:57yards per carry on scrambles, and the
12:59Giants defense is third worst against
13:01them. Like I said, it's also so hard to
13:03contain Jayden Daniels, mobile
13:06quarterbacks when playing man to man.
13:08And if we're calling a spade a spade
13:09here, the Giants have had very limited
13:11experience playing mobile quarterbacks.
13:14I'm not going to call Dak Prescott a
13:15mobile quarterback, right? He can move.
13:16He can get out of the pocket. He's not
13:17like a mobile, right? Matthew Stafford,
13:20no. Cam Ward in a rain storm, only so
13:23much. Jacoby Brissett, not really.
13:25Jayden Daniels had nine for 103. Shock
13:27kind of, and he had 30 yards, right? CJ
13:29Stroud, kind of. He got Nah, not really.
13:33Joe Milton, yeah, nine for 64. So the
13:36Giants,
13:38if they're going to play man, need to
13:40have a plan for Jayden Daniels. Whether
13:42that's a spy, whether that's staying
13:45extremely disciplined in rush lanes,
13:47there has to be a plan. I think that is
13:49the big edge for the commanders in this
13:50game. So obviously I'm watching Jayden
13:52Daniels on the ground, but I'm really
13:53watching the two slot pass catchers
13:55between the hashes. Now again, this is a
13:57weather game. This to me is going to
13:58come down to which team can dominate up
14:01front more. I think the playmakers will
14:03obviously play a factor in Isaiah Likely
14:05and Malik Neighbors, but the bottom line
14:07on Washington's side, if Lucas Patrick
14:09is out, that's a pretty big loss. And
14:11the reality is the Giants defensive line
14:12has been playing really well as of late.
14:15Now on the offensive side of the ball,
14:16the Giants got to move people up front.
14:18And they didn't have a ton of success on
14:19the ground against the Commanders in
14:20week five because,
14:22partially because they didn't really run
14:23the ball as much. But I do think this is
14:25a game where the Giants have some
14:26success on the ground. And if the
14:27weather's not too bad, there really
14:29isn't much, if anything, the Commanders
14:31defense can do to contain those pass
14:33catchers. And I think JJ McCarthy adds
14:35an element to the run game, literally
14:37just his ability to pull the ball that
14:39we saw in Houston. We haven't really
14:40seen the Scataboe plus McCarthy run game
14:43outside of one game where Scataboe had
14:45his best game of the year. So I think
14:46the ceiling is much higher than we
14:48realized for this Giants offense. I
14:50think the Giants defense is playing so
14:52well right now. It's hard for me to pick
14:54against the Giants, especially at home.
14:55If you enjoyed this video, make sure to
14:56leave a like. We'll see you next time.
14:58God bless.

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