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Climate Change, Health, and Disasters - What's the Connection? — Transcript

by WADEM · 2,390 words · 380 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:03Hello, my name is Caleb Dresser and I'm
0:06an emergency physician and serve as
0:09co-chair of the Wadom Climate Change
0:11Special Interest Group. I'm going to be
0:14sharing a couple of thoughts over the
0:15next few minutes about how climate
0:17change is connected to disaster and
0:19emergency medicine and we will explore
0:21some of these topics in future webinars
0:24as well. Let's get started. First of
0:27all, what is climate change and how does
0:30this relate to human activity and the
0:32field of disaster and emergency
0:34medicine?
0:35Let's start with what we've been up to
0:37over the last few hundred years. We've
0:39been burning coal, oil, gas, and we've
0:42been changing use of the planetary
0:44surface. For example, reducing forest
0:46cover and increasing certain forms of
0:48agriculture. All of this has led to
0:51emissions of greenhouse gases. These are
0:54things like carbon dioxide and methane
0:56and other gases that act to heat trap
0:59heat around the earth. This is a graph
1:02from a mountaintop in Hawaii over the
1:05past several decades showing the
1:08increasing levels of carbon dioxide in
1:10Earth's atmosphere.
1:13This is of concern because carbon
1:15dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse
1:17gases act to trap heat. They prevent
1:20infrared radiation from escaping into
1:23space. And so when you put more carbon
1:25dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse
1:27gases into the atmosphere, that
1:29essentially acts as a blanket around the
1:32planet that insulates the planet and
1:34leads to rising temperatures. We have
1:37already seen an increase of around 1.5
1:41centrade as of the time of this
1:43recording. The exact number depends a
1:45little bit on how you add up the math,
1:47but suffice to say, the planetary
1:49temperature is increasing and has
1:51already increased quite substantially
1:54over the past several decades. If we
1:57look ahead using computer models, what
2:00scientists are seeing is a very high
2:02probability of continued increases in
2:05global temperatures. How much that
2:08increase is? Well, that depends on
2:10future and present day decisions about
2:13greenhouse gas emissions policy and ways
2:16to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
2:18globally.
2:20Where this starts to become really
2:22concerning from a health disaster and
2:25emergency standpoint is that planetary
2:28warming increases the risk of a wide
2:31variety of hazards occurring, increases
2:33the intensity of some hazards and can
2:36create situations in which threats occur
2:39in new environments where they were not
2:41previously seen. Some of these include
2:44heat waves which are becoming more
2:45frequent and intense across much of the
2:48planet. long-term changes in biomes
2:51which can affect the distribution of a
2:53wide variety of both animals and plants
2:55and also pathogens, wildfires, long-term
2:58changes in sea level which is rising
3:01globally and a wide variety of other
3:03impacts.
3:06In terms of how we know this, there is a
3:08lengthy scientific record at this point
3:11to help us understand Earth's climate
3:14today in relation to Earth's climate for
3:17many, many years in the past. to share a
3:20couple of illustrative examples. These
3:22are graphs from the British Antarctic
3:24Survey, which has performed ice core
3:26drilling in Antarctica and been able to
3:29look back hundreds of thousands of years
3:32by analyzing the characteristics of gas
3:35bubbles trapped in the ice. And what
3:37they see here is that today's carbon
3:40dioxide levels are the highest that they
3:43have been in their entire time series
3:45going back almost a million years. And
3:47today's methane levels are also the
3:50highest they have been in the past
3:52800,000 years. This is concerning
3:55because when you look back at that same
3:57record, you see that there is a pretty
4:00clear correlation between higher levels
4:03of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as
4:05inferred from those little air bubbles
4:07in the ice cores and higher temperatures
4:10as inferred from anal analysis of other
4:13trapped gases in those same ice cores.
4:16This lines up with our understanding of
4:19the planetary system based on a wide
4:21variety of other science. And so at this
4:23point today, we are looking at a
4:25present- day situation where we are well
4:28outside historical bounds and a future
4:30in which we can expect that we will
4:33remain outside those historical bounds
4:35and very likely will move further away
4:38from our historical experience over the
4:40last almost a million years.
4:43There are a wide variety of implications
4:46of climate change for health. Some of
4:48these are disaster related, some are
4:50not. This is a helpful image from the US
4:54CDC that was released a number of years
4:55ago which explores some of the
4:58categories these fit into ranging from
5:00disaster related issues for example
5:02injuries and fatalities from severe
5:04weather to very long-term changes in
5:08food security perhaps resulting from
5:11changes in the viability of agriculture
5:13resulting from changes in temperature
5:15and rainfall patterns in various parts
5:17of the world. So this is a large
5:19complicated field and when it comes to
5:22thinking about the disaster and
5:24emergency medicine aspects of this there
5:28are a few different issues we need to be
5:30thinking about. I've situated these
5:33within the larger context of human
5:35activity leading to climate change. And
5:38if you look at what climate change is
5:40doing to hazards we are concerned about
5:42in disaster and emergency medicine in
5:44many settings it is increasing hazard
5:46frequency exposure and intensity.
5:50It's also leading in many settings to
5:52longer hazard seasons or even erratic
5:56timing of hazards that is different from
5:58historical patterns as well as in some
6:01cases overlapping hazards. For example,
6:04tropical cyclones that occur and are
6:06immediately followed by a dangerous heat
6:09wave in the setting of large widespread
6:11infrastructure damage and power outages.
6:13That one-two punch of overlapping
6:15hazards is also of great concern in our
6:18field. All of this adds up to increasing
6:20risk. And in a future webinar, we're
6:23going to look at how we think about risk
6:25in disaster and emergency medicine and
6:28how climate change can be relevant to
6:31our understanding and future assessment
6:32of risk in this field.
6:36For today though, we're going to go
6:37through just a few of these hazards and
6:39connect some of the dots between our
6:42understanding of the impacts of climate
6:44change from a science standpoint and
6:45then what this means for disasters and
6:48disaster and emergency medicine. Let's
6:51start with severe storms and flooding.
6:53At a very big picture scale, climate
6:56change means that more heat is trapped
6:59on the planet. That means more energy is
7:01available to power weather systems and
7:04that can contribute to more intense and
7:06severe weather. In addition, warmer air
7:10is able to hold more moisture. So as a
7:14result, when hotter air takes up
7:17moisture over a lake or an ocean, it has
7:20more potential to create heavy rainfall.
7:23Together, this means that we are seeing
7:26more intense storms and more intense
7:29cloud burst events where large amounts
7:30of rain falls in a short period of time.
7:33This map on the right is from the United
7:35States and this is based on historical
7:38rain gauge data. This is not a model.
7:40This is simply adding up historical
7:42weather data showing a dramatic uptick
7:45throughout much of the country in the
7:48amount of very heavy precipitation
7:51that's occurring over time compared to
7:54say 40 or 50 years ago.
7:56When we look at hurricanes, we see
7:58something similar. Again, there's more
8:01energy available in the planetary
8:03system.
8:05Hurricanes, also called tropical
8:06cyclones or typhoons, feed off of the
8:10warm sea surfaces in the subtropics.
8:14And so more temperature, high
8:16temperature water creates a situation in
8:18which there is more potential energy on
8:20which these storms can feed. That may be
8:24contributing to higher wind speeds and
8:26more risk of rapid intensification.
8:29This is also in occurring in the context
8:32of warmer air where these storms can
8:34thus dump larger amounts of rain in a
8:36short period of time and also occurring
8:39in the context of sea level rise which
8:41means that when storm surge occurs it's
8:43happening on a higher baseline sea level
8:46and thus there's increased risk of
8:47coastal flooding. There's also some
8:50science showing perhaps a reduction in
8:53the transllocation speeds of some of
8:54these storms i.e. the rate at which the
8:56whole storm system moves creating a
8:59situation where a uh city that is
9:01exposed to one of these storms may
9:03experience impact for a longer duration.
9:06And there is some evidence in some ocean
9:08basins that the locus of maximum
9:11intensity i.e. the point in the storm
9:13track where it is most severe may be
9:15moving toward the poles thus exposing
9:17areas that do not have as much
9:18historical experience with hurricanes.
9:20This is an evolving area of science and
9:23there's a lot to read about here and
9:24it's important to understand what is and
9:26is not known. The IPCC's uh most recent
9:29assessment report has a helpful summary
9:32of this literature and the level of
9:33confidence in some of these statements.
9:37When it comes to heat, the data is at
9:39this point quite clear and quite
9:41concerning. We are seeing increasing
9:44heat exposure. We are seeing more
9:47intense summertime heat waves. The
9:48heatwave season is also longer. Again,
9:52here is data from the United States. And
9:53again, this is not a model. This is
9:56simply adding up temperature records
9:58from weather stations over the past
10:00roughly 60 years. And what we see is
10:04more heat waves in most cities and we
10:06see a longer season in which they can
10:08occur. This is concerning because heat
10:11is a potentially lethal hazard and it
10:14becomes particularly dangerous when
10:16people are exposed to it and don't have
10:18a way to get out of it. For example,
10:20they're working outdoors or they perhaps
10:22live in a home where they don't have
10:24cooling. And so this combination of
10:26higher temperatures for longer as well
10:29as exposure of populations that are not
10:32necessarily used to dealing with heat
10:34and do not have cultural or social or
10:37architectural adaptations in place is
10:40creating a lot of dangerous heat around
10:42the world. This in turn in settings
10:45where people have access to air
10:46conditioning often leads to increased
10:49air conditioning use. And if the power
10:52grid is unable to sustain that increase
10:54in demand can actually contribute to
10:56risk of power outages which further
10:58increases the risk. There is a lot of
11:00work going on on understanding the
11:03implications of heat in the context of
11:05climate change as well as adaptation
11:07approaches to deal with this.
11:10When it comes to wildfire, we are also
11:12seeing increasing concerns around the
11:15world. This has been seen on most
11:18continents that have historical
11:19experience with wildfire. And there's a
11:22combination of factors here. Some of
11:24this is about hot, dry summertime
11:26conditions. The type of conditions that
11:28can support wildfire ignition and rapid
11:31spread. And so when you have hotter
11:33conditions and potentially increasingly
11:36erratic rainfall during summer months,
11:38that can create a tinder box and high
11:40risk of fires occurring. On the
11:44background of this, it's also important
11:45to recognize that in some settings, the
11:47growth of fuel for fires during
11:50wintertime months, which are sometimes
11:51rainy, for example, in many chaparal
11:53areas, may mean that wintertime rainfall
11:56is actually contributing to the growth
11:58of fuels that increase risk of larger
12:01blazes in the summer or fall. So, this
12:05is obviously concerning. Um, in addition
12:08to the obvious dangers of the wildfires
12:10themselves, it's worth pointing out that
12:13simply trying to prevent them creates
12:15its own disaster and emergency
12:17management complexities. For example,
12:19decisions to turn off power grids to
12:21prevent sparks during very high-risisk
12:23conditions may help prevent wildfires,
12:26but may also put individuals who depend
12:28on electricity for medical devices,
12:30refrigerating insulin, or other key
12:33medical activities that may put them at
12:35risk. And so figure out how to manage
12:37that risk and balance that is a very
12:39important question. Smoke is also a
12:41major concern. Smoke from these fires
12:43can travel long distances and affect the
12:47respiratory and cardiovascular health of
12:49people far distant from the wildfires
12:51themselves. And finally, after a fire
12:55has occurred, often landscapes have far
12:58less vegetation, far less in the way of
13:00plant root structures to hold soil in
13:02place. And so the risk of flooding and
13:05in some settings landslides following
13:07wildfires actually goes up as well. And
13:09so we see this compounding and
13:12sequential escalation in disaster risk
13:15that we need to understand and be
13:16prepared to manage.
13:18Finally, drought is a longer term
13:22concern as well. Um erratic rainfall and
13:25rising temperatures mean that there are
13:27many places around the world that are
13:29having difficulty with rainfed
13:31agriculture or with availability of
13:34water in reservoirs. All of this can
13:37contribute to poor growing conditions
13:39which has obvious implications for food
13:41security particularly in settings where
13:42small holder agriculture is very
13:44important to the economy as well as for
13:46livelihoods. And there can also be
13:48feedback loops here where as you see
13:51less rainfall, there may be increased
13:53reliance on irrigation which can
13:55contribute to soil salinity and
13:57long-term create further damage to
13:59cropping system yields. All of this
14:02again creates long-term risk that can
14:05contribute to food insecurity and even
14:07complex humanitarian emergencies.
14:10So in summary, we are in a situation
14:12where ongoing human activity including
14:15burning fossil fuels and land use change
14:18is leading to rising global
14:20temperatures. And these changes in
14:22Earth's climate are contributing to
14:24increasing disaster risk through, as we
14:26just discussed, a wide variety of
14:28mechanisms. How do we address this?
14:30Well, one approach is climate change
14:33mitigation, which means reducing
14:34greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse
14:36gas levels in the atmosphere. that will
14:38help prevent the worst possible futures
14:41associated with climate change. But we
14:44also need climate change adaptation,
14:46which means taking steps to prepare for
14:48the impacts of climate change. So when
14:50they occur, when the heat wave occurs,
14:52when the tropical cyclone occurs, we are
14:54prepared, our institutions are prepared
14:56and our societies are prepared for these
14:59impacts. Both of these at this point are
15:02necessary and are complimentary
15:04together.
15:05At this point, we in disaster and
15:07emergency medicine are facing climate
15:10change. This is a reality we have to
15:11engage with and it will have increasing
15:13relevance as its effects intensify.
15:15We'll explore some of those specific
15:17effects, some of those hazards, and some
15:19of the ways we can deal with them in
15:21future episodes.

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