claude code replaced the need for traders — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:05I'm not even signed in. Never mind.
2. 1:28Let's see what's going on here with some
3. 1:30of their
4. 1:32I want to see how much volume some of
5. 1:34these stocks are getting. Tradi HIP3.
6. 1:38So volumewise, it looks like oil is
7. 1:42obviously going to be number one. Well,
8. 1:44maybe not obviously, but it is what it
9. 1:45is.
10. 1:48SPY spy essentially what this is down
11. 1:51here in the bottom right.
12. 1:53Silver USD
13. 1:56SanDisk is up here
14. 2:00and the funding rate is negative
15. 2:1045%.
16. 2:13So, does this mean short squeeze?
17. 2:16Does that is that what it means?
18. 2:21Everybody's trying to short it right
19. 2:22now.
20. 2:55That's a good I [snorts] [ __ ] [ __ ]
21. 2:58idea. Ma good idea, dude. Damn, I missed
22. 3:02that. Okay, let's go ahead and say um
23. 3:05bring back the
24. 3:08close to liquidations
25. 3:11section of the Moon Dev app, but let it
26. 3:16be built in
27. 3:20to the
28. 3:22app. So it can just be another square
29. 3:30that can be resized cuz I miss that,
30. 3:35dude. I miss it bad.
31. 3:52I could I could cook it in the terminal
32. 3:54too, though.
33. 4:10Okay, cool, cool, cool. Let's see what
34. 4:12happens here. [snorts]
35. 4:51Damn.
36. 5:03God, dude. Much love. Much love.
37. 6:02Tomorrow? What time? Tomorrow.
38. 6:05[ __ ] I was hella late today. So, it's
39. 6:07noon.
40. 6:09Now, I like to wake up early though.
41. 6:14Just got to get back on this time zone.
42. 6:17So, obviously I missed today big time
43. 6:21when it comes to time. Time zone.
44. 6:24Switch it back, bro. trash.
45. 6:27Go back to what we had before. This This
46. 6:29one was bad. I want to just go back to
47. 6:31what we had before. It was nice and
48. 6:32concise. Okay. Thank you. It was nice to
49. 6:35Yeah. Yeah. Let's just go back to what
50. 6:37we had. Thank you. I don't know if she
51. 6:38can do that. I don't know if she can do
52. 6:39that. Let's see. 55. Today is 55.
53. 6:43Tomorrow what? 56.
54. 6:46Okay.
55. 6:52Archive.
56. 6:55So, the replay of the first part of the
57. 6:57stream today is on the page. There's not
58. 7:00going to be a second part because just
59. 7:02is what it is. The thing went down. So,
60. 7:06it went down. It went down. It went
61. 7:08down. Went down. Computer not thick
62. 7:10enough. I need to get a thicker one.
63. 7:1556 now. Okay. 56. What time should we do
64. 7:18it tomorrow? 56. Um, okay. [snorts] What
65. 7:21time did I even wake up today? Um,
66. 7:25the thing is is time is irrelevant. I
67. 7:26just go when I wake up.
68. 7:29So, just is what it is. Sometimes I wake
69. 7:32up at 5 tomorrow. What do you think? I'm
70. 7:35drinking coffee at 1:00 p.m. So, I don't
71. 7:38think I'm going to get to bed too early.
72. 7:47Absolutely want to work out prior.
73. 7:51Feel
74. 7:53like I fall asleep tonight at midnight.
75. 7:55Maybe wake up at 8.
76. 8:05Okay.
77. 8:08Nine. I'm going say 10 tomorrow. I'm
78. 8:10going say 10 tomorrow. We're just going
79. 8:12to keep inching earlier and earlier, but
80. 8:15let's say 10 to 1 tomorrow because worst
81. 8:18case scenario,
82. 8:20no, there's no way I'll sleep past 9.
83. 8:22Like, I know that. I know that for a
84. 8:24fact.
85. 8:27Just doesn't work for me anymore. I
86. 8:29don't want to be asleep now anyway. So,
87. 8:32see,
88. 8:34so I say worst case scenario, I miss out
89. 8:37on the gym. But that's not going to
90. 8:39happen. I'm going to get up. I'm going
91. 8:40to get up and get after it tomorrow.
92. 8:47So 10:00 a.m. tomorrow, Eastern time.
93. 8:50Let's Let's get back to stepping on
94. 8:52those soft ass West Coast folk, dude.
95. 8:54Waking up around what, 11 a.m. We're
96. 8:57already cooked. We finished for the day,
97. 8:59dude.
98. 9:01Step on their heads.
99. 9:03They hit their API limits because all
100. 9:05the [ __ ] all the [ __ ] Sanford
101. 9:08Shishko boys got to sign on at the same
102. 9:11[ __ ] time and do the same shits.
103. 9:13We're all cooked. You better start
104. 9:14cooking, dude. Better leave the 9 to5
105. 9:16ASAP. You have to.
106. 9:21You're not senior enough. All these
107. 9:23senior engineers saying, "Haha, AI is
108. 9:26not going to take my job though. Just
109. 9:27the juniors.
110. 9:30I'm a senior now.
111. 9:33code in any language.
112. 9:37You're cooked. You're cooked. You have
113. 9:39to cook. You have to cook your own your
114. 9:41own meals now. From here on out, I'm
115. 9:43sorry.
116. 9:46Imagine living on the West Coast.
117. 9:49Imagine living on the West Coast. I've
118. 9:50already cooked for four or five hours by
119. 9:52the time they wake up. Stop it. I love
120. 9:55it. I love it. I love it. I love it.
121. 10:01Okay, 10:00 a.m. They might wake up.
122. 10:04I'mma get there. I'mma get there. I'm
123. 10:06gonna get there. I'mma get back to
124. 10:116:00 a.m. East Coast. Huh? Maybe 5:00
125. 10:13a.m. Eastern. I like those days. I like
126. 10:17those days.
127. 10:195:00 a.m. Eastern.
128. 10:23Trip people out. Like, what the hell?
129. 10:24Why is he so awake?
130. 10:29>> [clears throat]
131. 10:29>> [ __ ] Sometimes it's 4:00 a.m. Eastern
132. 10:32cuz you know I'm on the island.
133. 10:374:00 a.m. Eastern. See you there.
134. 10:52Try to go back there. I like it there.
135. 10:55Like the morning morning time. Early
136. 10:57early early.
137. 11:02We'll start at 10:00. We'll start at 10
138. 11:03tomorrow.
139. 11:05Today I'm Eastern to 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
140. 11:073 hours.
141. 11:09Cook for at least three. Let's see if
142. 11:11she reverted it back.
143. 11:16Let me get the keys in the chat because
144. 11:19I think I messed up.
145. 11:23Sniper war giving me sleepless nights.
146. 11:29Let's go ahead and get the keys in there
147. 11:31for you.
148. 11:35The birds and the peace. Absolutely.
149. 11:39777
150. 11:46All right, let's see how she does here.
151. 11:51I think for um we should store this
152. 11:54data. So, you know, if we've already
153. 11:56checked in the last 30 minutes, then we
154. 11:58don't need to pull it again.
155. 11:59Essentially, this would help with
156. 12:00debugging and these updates that we're
157. 12:01making, you know. I don't need to do
158. 12:04that. I don't need to do that.
159. 12:06Well, yeah, actually, I probably should.
160. 12:09Let's do it.
161. 16:39locked in.
162. 16:41We're still here. We're still here.
163. 17:10Okay, so order books are flying.
164. 17:15Let's get over here to um
165. 17:20we have the uh stocks here already. So,
166. 17:22let's just go to BTC
167. 17:245 minute here.
168. 17:27Okay, so this looks better now. So,
169. 17:30Confluence up, SanDisk and others,
170. 17:41fresh breakouts here. FTT.
171. 17:46All right. So, to be honest, bro, I
172. 17:48think this is a fire thing here. So,
173. 17:51let's go ahead and say
174. 17:54PWD.
175. 17:56PWD and then what, gang?
176. 18:00I brew liquid. Awesome. Okay.
177. 18:05How do I do this? Should I do this? Yes,
178. 18:08I think I should do it this way. Let's
179. 18:10say copy. Let's go ahead and add a
180. 18:12script here to the app. Okay. Enter
181. 18:15path. New script, please. Let's say uh
182. 18:17cond activate tflow, bro. Yes. And then
183. 18:21let's go say um Python run this gang.
184. 18:24Whoa. All the way. Hey, I don't have all
185. 18:27of it yet.
186. 18:30Um,
187. 18:33I need a better way to do this.
188. 18:46Okay, I figured out a better way.
189. 18:51Paste that in there.
190. 18:54and paste that in there on it as well.
191. 19:00I figured it out. Okay, now I'm going to
192. 19:03add a script because I think it's fireb.
193. 19:06New terminal, new script. Yes, Tflow,
194. 19:09bro. Yes, Python. Yes. Oh, that's broken
195. 19:13there.
196. 19:17Tlow. Python.
197. 19:21Trender scanner
198. 19:23hyperlquid
199. 19:28trending
200. 19:31a script. Okay.
201. 19:41Okay. There we go. Now it should be here
202. 19:44forever.
203. 19:50Beautiful. I can get back to it easily.
204. 19:53Okay, so she did update the cash as
205. 19:56well. That's nice.
206. 20:02It's 1:11, bro. And I'm drinking coffee
207. 20:04still. My cut off is 2:00 p.m. [snorts]
208. 20:06Um, I should be all right. I just got to
209. 20:08make sure that I'm able to fall asleep
210. 20:10tonight. We'll get a real good workout
211. 20:12in after this.
212. 20:14Get a real good workout in.
213. 20:17A little jet lag, you know.
214. 20:26Nothing crazy.
215. 20:29So, we got that set up for life now.
216. 20:59For life.
217. 21:04For life. For life. For life.
218. 21:16Chill guy.
219. 21:207 day 57%.
220. 21:25Damn.
221. 21:41Indeed.
222. 21:55All
223. 22:08right. This is what I do need. I do need
224. 22:11you to have um
225. 22:14I don't want the [snorts] Let's put the
226. 22:16Confluence up top a little bit more, but
227. 22:17I want top 10.
228. 22:2624hour breakouts separated between
229. 22:30crypto and HIPP3.
230. 22:40Nah, I feel like
231. 22:43do I have everything I need? MU. Yes,
232. 22:45Ton. MU again.
233. 22:49Hey, Lun. Oh, Luna. Interesting.
234. 22:5516% 7 days on the on there.
235. 23:0187%.
236. 23:12I feel like this is good for now. This
237. 23:14is good for now because I can see
238. 23:17exactly
239. 23:20what's breaking out and what's breaking
240. 23:21down. What's trending up? What's
241. 23:23trending down?
242. 23:26Like meta seem to be trending down.
243. 23:31XYZ Meta
244. 23:33down in 7 days, 10%. Wow, that's a lot
245. 23:36of money though. 1.4% down today. WFY
246. 23:41down 12%.
247. 23:45Top 10 fresh breakdowns meta. But what's
248. 23:49that looking like over here?
249. 24:0011 million in volume.
250. 24:03Holy hell.
251. 24:14on the daily,
252. 24:25November 25th.
253. 24:29November 20th of 2025 is when it started
254. 24:35out over here. Okay.
255. 24:42I'm curious about this.
256. 24:46I want you to analyze meta when it comes
257. 24:49to the AI trade. Where are they in this
258. 24:53trade? You can see that obviously Amazon
259. 24:55is benefiting quite a lot as they have a
260. 24:59multi-prong approach to
261. 25:02AI and capturing you know the great
262. 25:04efficiency
263. 25:07meta is breaking down right now. It's
264. 25:09kind of interesting to me as I don't
265. 25:12think that they've had the benefit of
266. 25:16people realizing that they are an AI
267. 25:19company.
268. 25:22But that's just my bias. I want you to
269. 25:24look at the the numbers, the pees, the
270. 25:26earnings, the infrastructure they have
271. 25:28built out, the approaches that they are
272. 25:30taking to AI.
273. 25:34They're building application layer, but
274. 25:35also they're on the infrastructure side,
275. 25:39not infrastructure, but they're on the
276. 25:40the the model side. I'm be curious what
277. 25:43they're if they have any exposure to the
278. 25:45infrastructure side. Obviously, we know
279. 25:47the Facebook ads business is [ __ ]
280. 25:48massive
281. 25:50and they're in everybody's pockets.
282. 25:56So, there's no doubt in like a 10-year
283. 25:59horizon that Meta is going to be still
284. 26:01here cooking. And what I like most about
285. 26:03Meta is that they got Marky Mark, they
286. 26:05got Mark Zuckerberg, the [ __ ] [ __ ]
287. 26:06founder, still cooking. Amazon doesn't
288. 26:09have that.
289. 26:11So, you know,
290. 26:13I want you to do a full analysis here.
291. 26:16kind of like the exposure to AI,
292. 26:18metaverse,
293. 26:22Amazon and Google. Those are two good
294. 26:25comparisons.
295. 26:27Behemoths
296. 26:28launch three agents to do a in-depth
297. 26:31here and then um your analysis I'll put
298. 26:35it for each of them and then a
299. 26:37consensus. Thank you. [snorts]
300. 26:41All right, dude. So, interesting stuff.
301. 26:43Interesting stuff.
302. 26:46already. So, I think this is something I
303. 26:48should push to the GitHub. So, I'll do
304. 26:50that right now.
305. 27:00Let's go ahead and just get this to the
306. 27:01GitHub.
307. 27:06Get odd dot
308. 27:09get commit slash um
309. 27:12hip
310. 27:15three
311. 27:17and crypto
312. 27:19scanner
313. 27:27get push.
314. 27:32Oh, and some training MCPS, dude. So
315. 27:34much fire.
316. 28:07I should be on GitHub now. I pushed it.
317. 28:10Okay.
318. 28:15break down
319. 28:18meta die.
320. 28:20Let's see another 15% push down on that.
321. 28:23I don't know. I can't even see a big
322. 28:25enough chart yet. Let's go ahead and see
323. 28:27if Trading View has uh more of the day
324. 28:30top we need. Trading.
325. 28:33Damn, my fingers are off. Trading View.
326. 28:46Okay, let's look at the daily here.
327. 29:18And okay, let's look at meta meta
328. 29:20meadow.
329. 29:31Damn, dude.
330. 29:35Buying some leaps here. Jesus.
331. 29:40That was a good idea.
332. 29:42300% ago, thousand days ago.
333. 29:46Okay, so Meta has been going sideways
334. 29:48for how many years? A year and a half.
335. 29:52Okay, so they're not getting any of
336. 29:54this. They got no AI
337. 29:57fire yet. And you know that
338. 29:59[ __ ] market is ruthless. He's
339. 30:01going to fire half the company in a
340. 30:03[ __ ] text message.
341. 30:06He's going to fire half the company with
342. 30:07a text message.
343. 30:11This [ __ ] is just trying to
344. 30:13build. Just a builder. True aist.
345. 30:17Just a builder, dude.
346. 30:30I'd love to see I'd love to see these
347. 30:32tested.
348. 30:34Love to see that.
349. 30:36Love to see it. Love to see it.
350. 30:41Very curious about this.
351. 30:51Coinbase laid off 14% today. No way. For
352. 30:54real? Wow.
353. 30:57Thank you for sharing that.
354. 30:59base or it's coin.
355. 31:06You ain't getting any love for it, huh?
356. 31:09Jesus, dude.
357. 31:11Okay, so no love for the firing.
358. 31:19Interesting. That's like that's data
359. 31:21right there. That's for sure data.
360. 31:27And crypto is not down today.
361. 31:31On top of that,
362. 31:37it's up 2%. Coinbase fires 14% of their
363. 31:41staff.
364. 31:49Coinbase tie uh PayPal and Coinbase
365. 31:53tie deep layoffs to AI. So they're still
366. 31:55using that.
367. 31:58They use using that little excuse to
368. 32:00chop people off. When base t Yeah.
369. 32:04Oh, PayPal down bad, too.
370. 32:08Okay.
371. 32:14Holy hell, dude.
372. 32:18PayPal.
373. 32:21What the hell is going on with PayPal?
374. 32:25PayPal cooked.
375. 32:28It's been around since 20
376. 32:35been around forever.
377. 32:42Throw PayPal into the mix. I know it's a
378. 32:44little different of a company, but I
379. 32:45just want it I want it in the mix of the
380. 32:47comparison. So, run it back with PayPal
381. 32:50in there as well. Why [snorts] not,
382. 32:51dude? Why not? Yeah, we can do whatever
383. 32:52the [ __ ] we want to do.
384. 32:55Ask the questions you want to ask. I
385. 32:57love AR.
386. 32:59I love AR. Oh god.
387. 33:06Power out.
388. 33:08Power outage. Maybe.
389. 33:12Yeah, that power outage right there, but
390. 33:13we'll see.
391. 33:16This works still.
392. 33:19Okay, looks like we're Gucci. So let's
393. 33:22look through this because this is
394. 33:23interesting.
395. 33:31Meta in the AI trade the three agent
396. 33:32consensus price market cap of 610 to
397. 33:351.55 trillion trailing P 222 4p 20x
398. 33:39cheapest of the mag 7
399. 33:422025 revenue 200.9 billion 2022 22%
400. 33:48year-over-year
401. 33:49[snorts]
402. 33:50Q1 revenue 56 billion
403. 33:54up 33% accelerating
404. 34:00it's accelerating rated.
405. 34:04Okay. Gross margin 82% versus Amazon's
406. 34:0650 and Google's 58. Damn.
407. 34:10Recent draw down 10% post Q1 print 28%
408. 34:14off 2025 five highs.
409. 34:17Cash verse debt why it's breaking down.
410. 34:21The Q1 2026 print was a beat on revenue
411. 34:2433%. By 33% but the stock dropped 10%
412. 34:27because capex raised midcycle by 10
413. 34:30billion. You got to [ __ ] you got to
414. 34:32throw the cash down, B. You got to throw
415. 34:34the cash down. They doing the same thing
416. 34:37that they did to Amazon, huh? Okay.
417. 34:42Do the same thing you did to Amazon.
418. 34:43They get smoked. Capex. The [ __ ] They
419. 34:47got unlimited money and they're going to
420. 34:48have unlimited more in the future.
421. 34:50Open-ended infrastructure commitment
422. 34:53Q1 EPS 1044 was inflated by uh 8 billion
423. 34:56onetime tax benefit
424. 34:59clean EPS was 7.31
425. 35:03ad volume flat price did the work 12%
426. 35:06pricing [snorts]
427. 35:08dio declined for the first time ever
428. 35:11okay I ran internet disruptions blamed
429. 35:14but a milestone moment that is actually
430. 35:17pretty big can't have decline use right.
431. 35:22Daily active users.
432. 35:26Daily active users.
433. 35:54So met Meta is a standalone AI story
434. 35:57llama 4
435. 35:59open weight
436. 36:03meta assistant uh we don't none of us
437. 36:06use any of these ad AI is the actual
438. 36:09revenue driver
439. 36:11their ad business of course
440. 36:12infrastructure layer you asked about
441. 36:14this yes metahas serious Infrastructure
442. 36:16exposure much more than people realize.
443. 36:18MTIA custom silicone four generations in
444. 36:21two years.
445. 36:24Six-month cadence with industry 12 to 24
446. 36:26months. Hundreds of thousands deployed
447. 36:29for ranking racks and ads.
448. 36:32Broadcom deal extended through 2029.
449. 36:41Promeththeus, huh? [snorts]
450. 36:44They got a 1 gawatt supercluster online
451. 36:46in 2026. 6.6 gawatt nuclear secured by
452. 36:502026.
453. 36:58Meta does not sell their external
454. 37:00compute.
455. 37:05Metaverse Amazon here 1.5 trillion verse
456. 37:082.9 trillion. Ford PE is 20 versus
457. 37:11Amazon's 32. Growth in 2025 was 22 verse
458. 37:15Amazon's 12. Gross margin 82% verse
459. 37:19Amazon's 50%. Revenue employee is 2.5
460. 37:22million verse Amazon's 455.
461. 37:252026 capex 125 verse 200 billion.
462. 37:31AI infrastructure they've got a a
463. 37:33backlog here on Amazon.
464. 37:36Founder controller is Zuck.
465. 37:39Now it's Jassie or Amazon
466. 37:43social mover
467. 37:46direct. Honest verdict. Amazon wins on
468. 37:48revenue visibility 364 contracted
469. 37:51backlog underwriting capex. Meta wins on
470. 37:53margin economics. Every incremental
471. 37:56dollar drops to 82% growth.
472. 38:00Amazon diversification over meta
473. 38:02concentration. Meta capital efficiency
474. 38:04over Amazon per dollar of revenue. If AI
475. 38:08works perfectly, Meta wins more in
476. 38:11percentage terms, smaller base, higher
477. 38:14margins, founder bets. AI disappoints,
478. 38:17Amazon safer, diversified, AWS backlog,
479. 38:19floor professional management,
480. 38:23agent 3, metaverse, Google. So market
481. 38:25cap 1.5. Wow. Okay, we seen all this.
482. 38:31The valuation gap is inverted from
483. 38:33history. Meta at 20x with 33% gross
484. 38:35margins versus Google at 32x with 22%
485. 38:38growth. That's a real anomaly.
486. 38:43The market is punishing Meta for capex
487. 38:45visibility and rewarding Google for AI
488. 38:48execution.
489. 38:52Honest verdict.
490. 38:54Both AI hopes deliver. Google wins
491. 38:57absolute dollar.
492. 39:01All three agents converged on the same
493. 39:03call. Meta is the better riskadjusted AI
494. 39:05trade right now. The K's cheapest
495. 39:08forward multiple,
496. 39:13highest gross margin,
497. 39:15fastest revenue growth.
498. 39:18They're accelerated, founder controlled
499. 39:19with proven willingness to make 5 to 10
500. 39:21year bets.
501. 39:26They won the FCC case in November.
502. 39:30Real infrastructure being built.
503. 39:32Manhattan size data centers.
504. 39:37Capex peak likely within 18 months.
505. 39:42Auctionality on smart glasses. The risk
506. 39:45125 capex. Pure faith bet on captive
507. 39:49monetization.
508. 39:50Reality lab still hemorrhaging 20
509. 39:53billion a year.
510. 39:55Zuck is it's a pet project. It just he
511. 39:58just won't quit on. [snorts] Keep going,
512. 40:00Zuck. Keep going, [ __ ] Keep
513. 40:02going. I'm a [ __ ] meta guy now. I'm a
514. 40:05meta guy.
515. 40:08Llama is falling behind. Yeah, their AI
516. 40:10is kind of trash. But
517. 40:12it's not trash. I I'm just don't use it.
518. 40:14I don't I can't give you I can't give
519. 40:16you an honest review. So, I just if if
520. 40:19I'm not using it, then I it's just it's
521. 40:22cooked, you know? If it's not Opus 4.7,
522. 40:24it's cooked. I guess GPT 5.5. People
523. 40:26saying it's sick, but I'm not using
524. 40:27that. I'm not using that.
525. 40:32I tell this fire far like you must get
526. 40:35off of Opus right now. Once I hear that,
527. 40:38okay, until then.
528. 40:42Wait,
529. 40:44not using 5.5. Not using 3.1.
530. 40:53That's good to know. Gemini 3.1 Pro
531. 40:58the 5-year price target synthesized
532. 41:10how meta fits uh your existing book you
533. 41:12already own AI infrastructure exposure
534. 41:14through thesis on Amazon you're
535. 41:16considering Uber for AI application
536. 41:18autonomy meta is the missing piece the
537. 41:20highest margin AI application layer with
538. 41:22hidden infrastructure optional ity at
539. 41:24the cheapest price of the three.
540. 41:28The honest pairing logic.
541. 41:31My honest single line take Meta at 20x
542. 41:35Ford with 33%
543. 41:37revenue growth, 82% gross margin,
544. 41:40Manhattan size data centers, 2Nm custom
545. 41:44silicone,
546. 41:46and a founder still in chairs. The most
547. 41:48underpriced major AI exposure available.
548. 41:52that they're not really an AI company.
549. 41:54Market mispricing is the gift. Your bias
550. 41:56is correct.
551. 42:00Yeah, Meta is not an AI company. Wink
552. 42:02wink.
553. 42:04[ __ ] Meta is what it's literally
554. 42:05named Meta because they're going to do
555. 42:07whatever the [ __ ] is trending, dude. And
556. 42:08they're going to cook everybody. Okay,
557. 42:10they cook the [ __ ] metaverse and it's
558. 42:12actually cooked. But
559. 42:14that was the top. That was the top of
560. 42:15the metaverse.
561. 42:18I'm grateful for it though. Thank you.
562. 42:20Thank you for changing your name
563. 42:22cuz I was a big decentral land guy. Big
564. 42:25big decentral guy. And I went to the
565. 42:29[ __ ] moon when Zaki was like,
566. 42:32"Dude, our name is Meta now."
567. 42:36The OG metaverse,
568. 42:40Decentraland,
569. 42:46the thing to actually watch over the
570. 42:48next four quarters.
571. 42:50Rayban unit sales only proof of AI
572. 42:53hardware blah blah. Okay.
573. 42:57All right. So, that's interesting.
574. 43:00Interesting. The Oculus buy really was a
575. 43:03game changer. Absolutely. Absolutely.
576. 43:06Dude, that was a great buy for a billion
577. 43:10WhatsApp buy as well. It's like, okay,
578. 43:13that's a pretty good buy. Instagram buy
579. 43:15as well. Like, [ __ ] dude. He's not bad
580. 43:17at buying companies. Not bad.
581. 43:21And are there any other Fang?
582. 43:27Are there any other Fang companies with
583. 43:29the actual founder leading them still?
584. 43:32Or is it just Mark?
585. 43:37I'm curious about that.
586. 43:40I'm very curious about that.
587. 44:04Metaverse, Amazon,
588. 44:08PayPal is in here. This is funny. Mostly
589. 44:10buyback operation flat. PayPal is doing
590. 44:13the most aggressive capital return story
591. 44:15of the four, but the online business is
592. 44:17not growing. I just threw it in there
593. 44:19just for funsies.
594. 44:28just Zuck.
595. 44:34Oh, but you got Jensen and you got Musk.
596. 44:37Okay. Okay.
597. 44:44Damn. Paige and Bren still own 51% of
598. 44:47Google shares.
599. 44:50Bezos is selling though. That's the
600. 44:52thing about Bezos.
601. 44:55That's the thing about Amazon is they
602. 44:57got sellers.
603. 44:59But looking nice to me.
604. 45:06Let's get Meta up here.
605. 45:09Not even on my chart.
606. 45:32All right. So,
607. 45:41another 10%.
608. 45:43We'll see what happens here.
609. 45:45I don't know.
610. 45:57No say amigo. No sir.
611. 46:26They're going to have to split here at
612. 46:27some point. Mhm.
613. 46:48This was some sort of capitulation here.
614. 46:50As you can see, this bar
615. 47:10probably no rush.
616. 47:20Is that the consensus now that
617. 47:23Meta is not an AI company? That's why
618. 47:26they're not getting the tailwind of, you
619. 47:28know, the Amazons and the Googles,
620. 47:30specifically recently in the last like
621. 47:3230 days or so.
622. 47:39And would you say that they are an AI
623. 47:41company? I mean, you kind of I kind of
624. 47:44pitched that to you and you kind of
625. 47:45pitched it right back. But be
626. 47:50explicit here. I mean, I don't know if
627. 47:53they they would ever turn out their
628. 47:57You're saying Manhattanized data
629. 47:59centers. Are they going to use that all
630. 48:01internal?
631. 48:05Because that is a huge revenue driver
632. 48:07for Amazon.
633. 48:10And it seems like
634. 48:12they're positioning themselves meta to
635. 48:15be able to flip that switch if they want
636. 48:16to have meta cloud or whatever. If
637. 48:19they're really building something
638. 48:22Manhattan size or is it that profitable
639. 48:25for them in their ad business probably
640. 48:28it as well. So, um, [snorts]
641. 48:31yeah, I guess what I'm looking into here
642. 48:33is
643. 48:37do you think it's consensus right now
644. 48:38that Meta is not an AI company?
645. 48:47Because if it's not, I mean, we'll watch
646. 48:49it. I'll watch it. I'll keep it here on
647. 48:51my chart
648. 48:54because let's see here.
649. 49:01I've been at fan meta for a long time,
650. 49:04but watching it do that, it's like,
651. 49:06damn, it's tough.
652. 50:21That's the consensus and I think it's
653. 50:23mostly right for now with one important
654. 50:26caveat.
655. 50:28Is Meta Consider an AI company? The
656. 50:30honest answer what the market is
657. 50:32actually saying last 30 days. Meta is
658. 50:34down 10% on April 29th.
659. 50:37It's off 28% from highs.
660. 50:40Google April 2026 was his best month
661. 50:43since IPO. Wow. Amazon stable on AWS
662. 50:46growth. Nvidia still the AI king.
663. 50:51Patterns clear markets rewarding
664. 50:54companies with external AI revenue and
665. 50:56punishing the ones purely captive AI
666. 50:58spend.
667. 51:04Ben's like an AI company. Monetize like
668. 51:06an ad company
669. 51:16market has a simple test. Show me the AI
670. 51:18revenue. AWS 364 billion of backlog.
671. 51:24Google cloud 63% year-over-year.
672. 51:28Microsoft uh zour here's the open AI
673. 51:32workload
674. 51:34meta our ad targeting is better counts
675. 51:37as ads not AI
676. 51:40that's the entire argument the 125 to
677. 51:43145 capex in the meah and size data
678. 51:46centers don't generate a single dollar
679. 51:48of disclosed AI revenue
680. 51:50every ROI claim flows through the ad
681. 51:53business which the market already has a
682. 51:56multiple for 15 to 20x for ad business
683. 51:59verdict on consensus. Market currently
684. 52:01treats Meta as a digital ad company
685. 52:05that builds spend a lot on AI
686. 52:07infrastructure,
687. 52:09not as a AI company.
688. 52:12That's why the multiple is 20x instead
689. 52:14of 30 to 50x like Amazon.
690. 52:17Am I saying Meta is an AI company? Be
691. 52:20explicit. Yes, but with a qualification.
692. 52:23I think Meta is generally both an
693. 52:25application layer AI company. Real
694. 52:28monetizing today via adlift glasses meta
695. 52:31assistant one billion plus users
696. 52:35an infrastructure builder real assets
697. 52:37real silicone real power but for itself
698. 52:42not for sale market is correct that
699. 52:44number two doesn't deserve
700. 52:45infrastructure company multiples because
701. 52:47there's no external customer they're
702. 52:49effectively running a private cloud on
703. 52:51hers scale and asking the public market
704. 52:53to value it like a public cloud that's a
705. 52:55stretch but the market is underpricing
706. 52:57Number one add AI lift is producing real
707. 53:00measurable returns lattice plus 10%
708. 53:03androme meta plus 8% ad quality
709. 53:06advantage plus 22% RO rass the 33% Q1
710. 53:10revenue growth is partially AIdriven not
711. 53:12just cyclical recovery
712. 53:16to my honest position Meta is an AI
713. 53:19company on the application layer not on
714. 53:21the infrastructure layer yet the market
715. 53:24discount is partially deserved now A
716. 53:27real question.
717. 53:28Will they use all the capacity
718. 53:30internally? This is the most important
719. 53:31question. The bull case lives or dies
720. 53:33here.
721. 53:35Internal use case.
722. 53:37What meta actually needs it for? They
723. 53:39need it for llama. They need it for ad
724. 53:41ranking. They need it for reals. They
725. 53:43need it for meta AI. Need it for AR
726. 53:45processing, VR processing. They need it
727. 53:49for future agentic
728. 53:51features.
729. 53:53Real real real speculative speculative
730. 53:55speculative two specul
731. 53:58on this math current internal uses
732. 54:01probably consumes 1.5 to 2 gaw
733. 54:06the 5 gawatt plus 6.6 gawatt is built
734. 54:09for 2028 2030 use cases that don't fully
735. 54:12exist yet. Meta is betting that meta
736. 54:14assistant becomes a primary interface
737. 54:16for a billion users. Huge inference
738. 54:19load.
739. 54:20Smart glasses become the next computing
740. 54:22platform. Continuous AI inference. Llama
741. 54:26models continue to scale.
742. 54:31If those three bets work, the five plus
743. 54:33gawatt gets fully used.
744. 54:36If they don't, Meta has stranded
745. 54:39capacity by 2028.
746. 54:42The could they become a meta cloud
747. 54:44question.
748. 54:46Probably not a public cloud, but they
749. 54:48could absolutely flip a switch on
750. 54:50something narrow narrower.
751. 54:55The realistic scenarios llama as a
752. 54:57service inference platform most likely
753. 54:59open weight models need to run
754. 55:01somewhere. Okay, that could be cool. AI
755. 55:03studio for developers, they already have
756. 55:04this in beta could scale into a real
757. 55:07platform as a service. Agent compute
758. 55:09marketplace. If AI agents become the
759. 55:12primary interface, somebody has to host
760. 55:15them. Sell specific partners to specific
761. 55:18partners. Public cloud meta cloud. Okay.
762. 55:22The reason this matters for the thesis
763. 55:25if Meta only ever uses the
764. 55:27infrastructure internally, the market is
765. 55:29right to discount it. If Meta ever
766. 55:31monetizes even 10% of the capacity
767. 55:33externally, the rate the multiple
768. 55:35rerates
769. 55:37is the captive infrastructure profitable
770. 55:38enough. This is the math that decides
771. 55:40everything. Let me be specific. Copex
772. 55:42commitment.
773. 55:44I mean also also go into this just like
774. 55:47is it
775. 55:50as an ad company? Is it fairly price
776. 55:55and are you getting the AI for free?
777. 55:57Look into that angle because is it
778. 56:00fairly priced as a social network ad
779. 56:02company?
780. 56:05Short and concise. Thank you.
781. 56:09I mean it's just an idea. It's just a
782. 56:11thought.
783. 56:13Okay. So required ad revenue at 82%
784. 56:16gross margin 30% incremental return on
785. 56:19capital required.
786. 56:21They could do that though.
787. 56:24So AI Copex needs to drive an extra 7 to
788. 56:279% of revenue per year for 10 years. Is
789. 56:30that plausible? 22% revenue growth, 33%
790. 56:34revenue growth. Bullcase AI keeps the
791. 56:36growth rate at 18 to 20% for two to five
792. 56:38years.
793. 56:40The seven to nine.
794. 56:43Honest verdict, it works only if AI ad
795. 56:46targeting genuinely sustains a 6 to 8
796. 56:50point growth premium for five plus
797. 56:52years. Right now, it's working 33% Q1
798. 56:55versus 12% odd industry baseline. If
799. 56:58that compresses back to industry growth
800. 57:01by 2027, the capex is value destructive.
801. 57:06So what's the real answer? The consensus
802. 57:08that meta is an AI company is partially
803. 57:10correct and will likely persist until
804. 57:13one or two things
805. 57:40Meta starts disclosing AI specific
806. 57:42revenue.
807. 57:44Adlift becomes so obvious in the numbers
808. 57:47that you can no longer argue it. It
809. 57:49isn't in the AI story. If Meta sustains
810. 57:5125% revenue growth for four quarters in
811. 57:55a row while the ad industry grows 8 to
812. 57:5710%, the market will be forced to admit
813. 58:00it.
814. 58:02My honest position update. I still think
815. 58:04Meta is the best riskadjusted AI
816. 58:06exposure of the four, but I want to be
817. 58:09intellectually honest.
818. 58:11You're right that the market doesn't see
819. 58:13Meta as an AI company right now. The
820. 58:1620XP versus Amazon Google at 30x is
821. 58:19approved. You're right to be skeptical
822. 58:21that they'll use all that Manhattan size
823. 58:24data center capacity internally.
824. 58:27They probably won't fully use the 5 plus
825. 58:30gaw unless smart glasses or AI
826. 58:33assistants scale dramatically.
827. 58:35They could flip a switch on meta cloud.
828. 58:38It's a real option, but it's not the
829. 58:40base case.
830. 58:43The bet you're making with Meta is
831. 58:44essentially ad AI lift is real and
832. 58:47durable. Smart glasses become a
833. 58:49meaningful platform. They successfully
834. 58:52monetize some of the infrastructure
835. 58:54externally.
836. 58:56The market eventually rerates them as an
837. 58:58AI company. If you don't believe at
838. 59:01least two of the four, you should not
839. 59:03own Meta as AI trade.
840. 59:08You should own Google or Amazon instead.
841. 59:17That is the cheapest AI option because
842. 59:19the market hasn't decided it's AI
843. 59:21company yet. You're either getting an
844. 59:23asymmetric rate trade if when the market
845. 59:27changes its mind or you're catching a
846. 59:29value trap where capex never produces
847. 59:31the AI revenue [snorts] the bull case
848. 59:35requires. The 20x PE reflects this
849. 59:38uncertainty.
850. 59:41Your skepticism is valid.
851. 59:44That is secretly an AI company thesis is
852. 59:46exactly that a thesis not a consensus.
853. 59:50Quick answer. Yes. You're paying fair
854. 59:52value for the ad business and getting
855. 59:54the AI essentially for free. But Reality
856. 59:56Labs is the asterisk the math clean 2026
857. 1:00:00XE components. Okay. Total ad business
858. 1:00:0330.
859. 1:00:04Reality L $6 share ad business only $36
860. 1:00:08per share.
861. 1:00:11at business loan comps high quality
862. 1:00:23trade desk 28x 4pin
863. 1:00:2722x Reddit 45x
864. 1:00:31fair value
865. 1:00:35Pinterest 22x Pinterest is value more
866. 1:00:38than Reddit is double Meta. Damn. Fair
867. 1:00:42value of Meta as just an ad company is
868. 1:00:45720. Stock today is 610. What this
869. 1:00:48means, you're paying 17x for an ad
870. 1:00:50business that Compset says deserves 20X.
871. 1:00:54The market is pricing Meta at a discount
872. 1:00:56to pure ad comps.
873. 1:00:59Even before crediting the 125 billion a
874. 1:01:02year of AI infrastructure, llama for
875. 1:01:04Meta AI assistance, Rayban, Meta
876. 1:01:07Glasses, 6.6 six watts of nuclear power.
877. 1:01:11Net net AI is being valued at roughly $0
878. 1:01:14per share. Okay, so that's far. I mean,
879. 1:01:20the real trade setup, you're essentially
880. 1:01:21making three bets bundled into one
881. 1:01:23stock. Long ad business, which is never
882. 1:01:25going away. I'm sorry.
883. 1:01:28Free call option on AI infrastructure.
884. 1:01:30Llama and glasses. Everybody's using
885. 1:01:33those [ __ ] glasses on the
886. 1:01:34[ __ ] the reels and [ __ ] You
887. 1:01:37see it? Tik Toks.
888. 1:01:39Okay. Not everybody.
889. 1:01:41Not everybody,
890. 1:01:44but people are using them more than
891. 1:01:46Google Glass. I had Google Glass back in
892. 1:01:49the day. [laughter]
893. 1:01:52You know, I had the Google Glass, bro.
894. 1:01:54You know, I did,
895. 1:01:59mama. I mean, I've used it a couple
896. 1:02:01times. I'm not gonna say it's fire.
897. 1:02:05Reality Labs. Mark's
898. 1:02:08project. See if he can cook. If not, he
899. 1:02:10might just burn 40 billion like he did
900. 1:02:12with the metaverse. That's all right.
901. 1:02:21If you believe Reality Labs is worth
902. 1:02:23more than zero,
903. 1:02:26the math improves further. If you think
904. 1:02:28Reality Labs is going to keep bleeding
905. 1:02:3020 billion a year forever with nothing
906. 1:02:32to show for it, the discount is
907. 1:02:33partially deserved. Honest verdict, yes,
908. 1:02:36Meta is fairly too cheaply priced as a
909. 1:02:39social network ad company. The 20x
910. 1:02:41forward PE on consolidated business
911. 1:02:44equates to 17x on the ad business alone.
912. 1:02:48Fair to chief ad business, AI
913. 1:02:50infrastructure for free. Reality Labs as
914. 1:02:53a known negative.
915. 1:02:55That's why the bull case keeps coming
916. 1:02:56back to meta even though I acknowledge
917. 1:02:58the market doesn't credit as an AI
918. 1:03:00company yet. The setup is you're not
919. 1:03:03paying for AI optionality. You're pay
920. 1:03:06you're being slightly compensated to
921. 1:03:08take it.
922. 1:03:10The risk is that reality labs continues
923. 1:03:12to bleed and the market decides the ad
924. 1:03:15company at fair value plus AI for free
925. 1:03:18framing is wrong because AI
926. 1:03:20infrastructure is also destroying value.
927. 1:03:23That's the bare case. If you can stomach
928. 1:03:2518 months of Reality Labs losses and
929. 1:03:28capex digestion, you're getting a high
930. 1:03:30quality ad business at fair value with
931. 1:03:33AI as the kicker. That's the trade.
932. 1:03:35Interesting, dude. That's an interesting
933. 1:03:37one.
934. 1:03:39That's fun.
935. 1:03:42That's fun. That's fun.
936. 1:04:15Are people actually using their new um
937. 1:04:19meta AI uh glasses, the Ray-B [snorts]
938. 1:04:22bands? Like what are the numbers on
939. 1:04:24that? Compare them to this the Snapchat
940. 1:04:27Spectacles and then also Google Glass
941. 1:04:29back in the day the launch and like are
942. 1:04:32people actually using them? Okay, thank
943. 1:04:34you.
944. 1:07:17Just curious if anybody's actually using
945. 1:07:18these [ __ ]
946. 1:08:12What month is it? May
947. 1:09:17Google Glass was 2013 to 2015. 10 to
948. 1:09:21300K sold killed in 2015.
949. 1:09:25The glass hole stigma. That's funny.
950. 1:09:28[ __ ] glass hole.
951. 1:09:30So, total sold of the Snap Spectacles,
952. 1:09:34they're cooked dead consumer category
953. 1:09:36for Snap, 40 million right down. Sold 7
954. 1:09:40million in 2025 on loan. Scaling to 20
955. 1:09:44million capacity by end of 2026. Best
956. 1:09:46smelling uh smelling smelling and
957. 1:09:49selling smart glasses by a wide margin.
958. 1:09:52That's 70x more units in one year than
959. 1:09:54Google Glass ever sold. And 40x more
960. 1:09:57than Snap's reticles total. Even if you
961. 1:10:00compare Meta's 2024 volume alone, are
962. 1:10:04people actually using them? The honest
963. 1:10:06caveat, sales does not mean engagement.
964. 1:10:10Sales data was solid. Million, then 2
965. 1:10:12million, then 7 million. Now they can
966. 1:10:15sell up to 20 million.
967. 1:10:18Tripled revenue from this these in 2025.
968. 1:10:21Rayban's parent company. Damn, tripled
969. 1:10:24revenue. What?
970. 1:10:27Production is supply constrained.
971. 1:10:29They're sitting at Raybound stores at
972. 1:10:31$299.
973. 1:10:34Meta does not publicly break out daily
974. 1:10:36active users for glasses. No churn rate,
975. 1:10:39no retention curves.
976. 1:10:42A sign. Meta wants to control narrative.
977. 1:10:45Compare Snap's internal data shows under
978. 1:10:4750% of spectacle buyers still using them
979. 1:10:49after a month. Okay, interesting. Soft
980. 1:10:51signals that suggest real engagement.
981. 1:10:53Repeat purchase rate.
982. 1:10:56People buying multiple frame styles.
983. 1:10:59Meta AI assistant queries.
984. 1:11:04Active development. Display version.
985. 1:11:06Launch late 2025.
986. 1:11:10Soft signals that suggest hyperrisk. No
987. 1:11:13DAU disclosure. Battery life is only 4
988. 1:11:16hours.
989. 1:11:18Damn, that's weak.
990. 1:11:21Photos, music, calls. It's pretty basic.
991. 1:11:23I got to try them myself. Why Ray-B band
992. 1:11:25meta worked where glass and spectacles
993. 1:11:28failed
994. 1:11:30a static
995. 1:11:32look like normal Ray-B bands.
996. 1:11:36Entry price as well.
997. 1:11:39Damn, I spent 1,500 on Google Glass back
998. 1:11:42in the day. What a [ __ ] mega nerd,
999. 1:11:43huh?
1000. 1:11:52Mega nerd.
1001. 1:11:55The thing that broke previous smart
1002. 1:11:56glasses was looking weird in public.
1003. 1:11:58Rayban Meta solved that problem by
1004. 1:12:01hiding the tech inside actual Ray-B
1005. 1:12:02bands.
1006. 1:12:06What this means for the meta thesis
1007. 1:12:09bull case is partially validated. Smart
1008. 1:12:11glasses are the reality labs initiative
1009. 1:12:14with actual product market fit.
1010. 1:12:20But the bear case still has its teeth.
1011. 1:12:23Two billion in revenue. So they lost 19
1012. 1:12:26billion. Nice. Without DAU disclosures,
1013. 1:12:29we can't prove people are actually using
1014. 1:12:31them. The display version at 799 is the
1015. 1:12:34real test. Apple was rumored to enter
1016. 1:12:37vision based glasses in 2728.
1017. 1:12:41Yes, people actually use them.
1018. 1:12:44If they made two billion off sales, like
1019. 1:12:47where where else are they making money
1020. 1:12:49on the Ray-B bands? Are they like the
1021. 1:12:51software on the inside? Like ads, I
1022. 1:12:53guess. I don't know.
1023. 1:12:58Ads up in your eyes, bro. [laughter]
1024. 1:13:02Oh, we're going to have ads in our eyes.
1025. 1:13:09We don't know if people use them.
1026. 1:13:12Realistic five-year framing. Rayban Meta
1027. 1:13:14is the proof point with Reality Labs.
1028. 1:13:21Also look into the um how many employees
1029. 1:13:25they have and their Yeah, I know their
1030. 1:13:28revenue per employee is pretty high, but
1031. 1:13:31I also think their leader is um if they
1032. 1:13:34Mark a little ruthless, let's be honest,
1033. 1:13:38and he would fire half the company if
1034. 1:13:41needed.
1035. 1:13:43So how does that affect their current
1036. 1:13:46business
1037. 1:13:47and um yeah future
1038. 1:13:52valuation etc.
1039. 1:13:57Okay, let's go ahead and see.
1040. 1:14:17And this could be a HIP3 here. Let's
1041. 1:14:19see. Oh, it's on there. That's why
1042. 1:14:21that's how I found it. Duh. This is how
1043. 1:14:23it all started. That's how it all
1044. 1:14:25started a few hours ago at this point. I
1045. 1:14:27don't know.
1046. 1:14:30Okay, so HIP3 here. 10x leverage
1047. 1:14:36liquidated.
1048. 1:14:42Set orders. 10x leverage. Nah, that's
1049. 1:14:45just too much leverage. You need that.
1050. 1:14:47You got to use a I don't I can't give
1051. 1:14:49you financial advice, but
1052. 1:14:53it's a lot of volume here.
1053. 1:14:57Is that the case in the real market or
1054. 1:14:59just hyperlquid?
1055. 1:15:02May 5th.
1056. 1:15:19It's April.
1057. 1:15:26You give me meta at 520, I'll take it.
1058. 1:15:28If you throw me meta at 520, I'll take
1059. 1:15:30it. But
1060. 1:15:41not saying I'll hold it forever. Not
1061. 1:15:42saying I'll hold it. No way.
1062. 1:15:47Not saying anything, bro. Not saying
1063. 1:15:48[ __ ]
1064. 1:15:51Okay, let's go ahead and just see what's
1065. 1:15:52Gucci today. Hardware is essentially the
1066. 1:15:55only direct revenue.
1067. 1:15:58So, they're betting 21 billion a year on
1068. 1:16:01this.
1069. 1:16:03Wonder what they're seeing.
1070. 1:16:10Meta is following the same playbook as
1071. 1:16:12Facebook and threads. build engagement
1072. 1:16:14first, monetize with ads second. The
1073. 1:16:16smart glasses are positioned as creating
1074. 1:16:19optional pathways for AI distribution
1075. 1:16:22that will eventually serve ads.
1076. 1:16:26The actual monetization stack is meta
1077. 1:16:28sees it. Phase one,
1078. 1:16:31two billion hardware revenue. Okay.
1079. 1:16:32Glasses feed meta AI assistant queries.
1080. 1:16:35Okay. Photos uploaded to IGFB.
1081. 1:16:39voice patterns, location data, visual
1082. 1:16:42context, all of which improves the core
1083. 1:16:45ad business.
1084. 1:16:47Phase two, engagement loops, Instagram
1085. 1:16:50reels, viewing inside glasses is crazy.
1086. 1:16:53WhatsApp video calls, Spotify,
1087. 1:16:57we'll see
1088. 1:16:59native ads and glasses in 2027.
1089. 1:17:07The data flywheel is the underrated
1090. 1:17:08piece. Every Ray-B band meta user is
1091. 1:17:11generating voice data, visual data,
1092. 1:17:13behavioral data, engagement data.
1093. 1:17:17The honest math of glasses
1094. 1:17:19profitability, 2 billion in hardware
1095. 1:17:21revenue times probability, 20 to 30%
1096. 1:17:25gross margin.
1097. 1:17:28They're probably making like 400
1098. 1:17:30million, so it's way less. It's 3% of
1099. 1:17:32Reality Labs losses.
1100. 1:17:43I kind of like how they do that over
1101. 1:17:44there to be honest though.
1102. 1:17:47They'll have something cooking hella
1103. 1:17:48hard and they'll be betting on the other
1104. 1:17:50side hella hard and they'll take the L
1105. 1:17:53because like Mark is so young and he's
1106. 1:17:56going to be around for the next 30 40
1107. 1:17:57years I feel like. So he's like, "Yeah,
1108. 1:18:00why not? I'm going to take the biggest
1109. 1:18:01shots while printing so hard and that's
1110. 1:18:04going to keep growing over there. I'll
1111. 1:18:06let Wall Street go ahead and uh,
1112. 1:18:09you know, talk [ __ ] whatever. I took a
1113. 1:18:12big L. I took a big L. I changed my
1114. 1:18:14[ __ ] name to Meta, bro.
1115. 1:18:17[laughter]
1116. 1:18:18I changed our name from Facebook to
1117. 1:18:20Meta, dude. Come on. I took a big L. It
1118. 1:18:23is what it is. I'mma keep cooking. I'mma
1119. 1:18:26keep taking shots. Okay. I launched
1120. 1:18:28these [ __ ] glasses a couple
1121. 1:18:30year back. They kind of hitting. Yeah,
1122. 1:18:31I'm spending 21 billion a year on
1123. 1:18:33Reality Labs. We making 500 back. 500
1124. 1:18:37million. Yeah, it's a little bit, but
1125. 1:18:39it's okay.
1126. 1:18:43Maybe it won't hit. Maybe it won't hit.
1127. 1:18:45That's all right. We're cooking on the
1128. 1:18:46ad business and it's still growing. [ __ ]
1129. 1:18:48you guys. I don't care if you call us a
1130. 1:18:50AI company or not. It doesn't matter to
1131. 1:18:52me.
1132. 1:18:54I'mma keep cooking. I'mma keep testing
1133. 1:18:55things. I'mma keep testing. I'm going to
1134. 1:18:57keep testing. Oh, guess what? WhatsApp
1135. 1:19:00for sale. Let's get it. Oh, Instagram
1136. 1:19:01for sale. Let's get it. Oculus for sale.
1137. 1:19:04Let's get it. Who are they going to
1138. 1:19:06acquire next? Can they even acquire
1139. 1:19:08anymore? Also, what's going on with the
1140. 1:19:11um you know, the size of their company?
1141. 1:19:12Are they able to keep acquiring
1142. 1:19:14companies? Because at the end of the
1143. 1:19:15day, you know, WhatsApp was a major
1144. 1:19:17acquisition.
1145. 1:19:19Instagram was a major acquisition.
1146. 1:19:22Oculus was a major acquisition. Mark
1147. 1:19:24Mark will pay up and everybody's always
1148. 1:19:26in awe when he buys like, "Oh, he paid
1149. 1:19:29too much." But
1150. 1:19:31so far so good.
1151. 1:19:34So far so good.
1152. 1:19:39At some point, don't they start blocking
1153. 1:19:42acquisitions? This is my question. Okay,
1154. 1:19:43thanks.
1155. 1:19:47Okay, thank you. Bye.
1156. 1:20:27good thread of questions. Let me hit
1157. 1:20:28them each employees. Uh Meta has 78,000
1158. 1:20:32employees. Wow.
1159. 1:20:36Apple has 164,000. Amazon has 1.5
1160. 1:20:39million.
1161. 1:20:44200 billion 78,000 revenue per employee
1162. 1:20:48the highest
1163. 1:21:16Meta is 5.6x 6x more revenue per
1164. 1:21:19employee than Amazon and Microsoft. Only
1165. 1:21:22Nvidia beats them on this metric.
1166. 1:21:29They're not the highest. Okay, they're
1167. 1:21:30second highest.
1168. 1:21:32The same workforce drives more revenue
1169. 1:21:34every year because the ad targeting
1170. 1:21:35models do more of the work.
1171. 1:21:38Zuck's relentless
1172. 1:21:40or ruthlessness as a compounder. You're
1173. 1:21:43right. And this is underrated as a
1174. 1:21:46long-term value driver. The pattern 2025
1175. 1:21:492022 with the year of efficiency cut
1176. 1:21:5121,000 employees. Stock had been beaten
1177. 1:21:54down to the 90s. This was a catalyst to
1178. 1:21:57start the run to 700 plus. Wow.
1179. 1:22:01January 2026, Reality Labs cuts 1,000
1180. 1:22:04people, 30% RL budget reduction, smart
1181. 1:22:08glasses kept. Metaverse deemphasized
1182. 1:22:14April 2026. Another 8,000 cuts. Total
1183. 1:22:182026 is down 30,000 from peak. Z has
1184. 1:22:21demonstrated willingness to fire half
1185. 1:22:23the company. He literally did.
1186. 1:22:27Bezos never had a single mass layoff
1187. 1:22:29while CEO
1188. 1:22:33Pai has layoffs are slow. Telegraphed
1189. 1:22:36executives speak.
1190. 1:22:38Cook famously won't lay off. Apples
1191. 1:22:40never had a mass layoff in modern era.
1192. 1:22:43What the hell? For real?
1193. 1:23:25This matters matters enormously. If the
1194. 1:23:29125 to 145 billion AI spend doesn't
1195. 1:23:32produce returns in 2728, Zuck will cut
1196. 1:23:3530,000 more employees and reset the
1197. 1:23:37stock base before the market forces them
1198. 1:23:39to. That's a structural floor under a
1199. 1:23:41stock that Amazon and Google don't have.
1200. 1:23:46It's also why the founder le premium is
1201. 1:23:48real. Cook would protect Apple's culture
1202. 1:23:51before cutting. Zuck will cut to protect
1203. 1:23:53the stock.
1204. 1:23:59Major M&A is essentially blocked. Beta
1205. 1:24:01knows this and has adapted the track
1206. 1:24:04record for context. Instagram
1207. 1:24:06to buy down for a billion. Best Eminem a
1208. 1:24:10deal of 2010s. Now generates 50 billion
1209. 1:24:13in ad revenue. They bought it for a
1210. 1:24:15billion. Now it generates 50 billion a
1211. 1:24:16year. Oh my god.
1212. 1:24:19WhatsApp, they bought it for 19 billion.
1213. 1:24:21That looked insane. Now it's got three
1214. 1:24:23billion of users.
1215. 1:24:25Oculus, they bought that for two
1216. 1:24:26billion. Reality Labs base has lost 83
1217. 1:24:29billion since. God,
1218. 1:24:32still betted on that 2014.
1219. 1:24:36See if it comes to fruition or not.
1220. 1:24:38within VR fitness. Okay. FTC tried to
1221. 1:24:41block it.
1222. 1:24:44Scale AI 14 billion structured as a
1223. 1:24:46talent license deal to avoid antirust
1224. 1:24:49review.
1225. 1:24:50What changed? 2020 Lena FTC declared war
1226. 1:24:54on big tech M&A specifically
1227. 1:24:582025 met the main FTC antitrust case.
1228. 1:25:032026 reality any deal over 1 to2 billion
1229. 1:25:06that odds capability to a major meta is
1230. 1:25:09challenge period
1231. 1:25:12this is a new ma model for big tech pay
1232. 1:25:1480% on acquisition price get 80% of the
1233. 1:25:18value avoid 100% of the regulatory risk
1234. 1:25:25buying Tik Tok can't buy Tik Tok can't
1235. 1:25:28buy open AI Okay.
1236. 1:25:34can't buy a major hardware company
1237. 1:25:41playbook where they're just like doing
1238. 1:25:42an aquifier
1239. 1:25:48smaller under two billion smaller AI
1240. 1:25:50startups but
1241. 1:25:54equity stakes 10 to 20% positions joint
1242. 1:25:57ventures and sta structure deal real
1243. 1:26:00estate infrastruure
1244. 1:26:02Future acquisition capacity. Meta has
1245. 1:26:04the cash to keep doing structured deals.
1246. 1:26:06Any size 36 billion cash on hand. 43
1247. 1:26:10billion free cash flow in 2025. They can
1248. 1:26:12do a 14 billion scale style deal every 6
1249. 1:26:15to9 months without blinking.
1250. 1:26:18The constraint is incapable is targets.
1251. 1:26:22The structure acquisition model only
1252. 1:26:23works when the target has clear key
1253. 1:26:26talent that can be relocated. The
1254. 1:26:28target's IP can be licensed. The
1255. 1:26:30target's existing customers don't
1256. 1:26:32object. The target is small enough that
1257. 1:26:35will still exist as possible.
1258. 1:26:39Most likely 26 to 28. Okay.
1259. 1:26:50I mean, it's something to look at. I'm
1260. 1:26:52going keep looking at it, but not going
1261. 1:26:53to do anything.
1262. 1:26:55Keep cooking.
1263. 1:26:58Hey, thank you, Scanner. You gave us
1264. 1:26:59this whole rabbit hole to go down today.
1265. 1:27:05SanDisk.
1266. 1:27:08Mu mu
1267. 1:27:10skhx. What the hell is that?
1268. 1:27:21SK.
1269. 1:27:30What is this?
1270. 1:27:56It's a symbol. I don't know what it is,
1271. 1:27:58though.
1272. 1:28:13I don't know what it is, though.
1273. 1:28:15Looks like it's going up. 80% change in
1274. 1:28:1924 hours. Now $80. I keep seeing that
1275. 1:28:21and scares me, bro. That scares me.
1276. 1:29:27Korean memory semiconductor giant
1277. 1:29:31damn
1278. 1:29:3883% in one
1279. 1:29:48Ba.
1280. 1:31:43Damn TSC. What the hell is that? This is
1281. 1:31:46dope, dude. I like it. I like it being
1282. 1:31:49right there, too.
1283. 1:32:00I'm out of it.
1284. 1:33:02S khx
1285. 1:33:10k
1286. 1:33:12hx Thanks.
1287. 1:36:05INTC.
1288. 1:36:19Look at the 4 hour.
1289. 1:37:29Let's see what the draw downs have been.
1290. 1:37:32Peak
1291. 1:37:344%. You're licked at 10%. 10x leverage,
1292. 1:37:38but that's it. Assuming you buy the top
1293. 1:37:414%.
1294. 1:37:446%.
1295. 1:37:48I want you to go ahead and build a build
1296. 1:37:50a new version of this, okay? Second
1297. 1:37:53version. Um, and essentially what I want
1298. 1:37:55you to do is uh
1299. 1:37:57this is of the scanner that you built
1300. 1:38:00earlier.
1301. 1:38:03The trending cash
1302. 1:38:18essentially I want I want you to remove
1303. 1:38:19the um
1304. 1:38:22the RSI
1305. 1:38:25and instead I want the percentage draw
1306. 1:38:28down from the last 24 hours. Okay. So
1307. 1:38:32like possible from the high to the low
1308. 1:38:35the high to the low what I'm trying to
1309. 1:38:36get a compass on is okay yeah these are
1310. 1:38:39trending but
1311. 1:38:41how what's their draw down on the trend
1312. 1:38:44you know
1313. 1:38:47so you have all that data you're looking
1314. 1:38:48at and then you'll be able to see like
1315. 1:38:50okay what is the high of the low
1316. 1:38:52percentage okay thank you
1317. 1:38:57so actually just keep it the same keep
1318. 1:38:59it the same uh file
1319. 1:39:01But you know instead of the RSI you'll
1320. 1:39:03have this instead and it'll be the last
1321. 1:39:06column. Thank you.
1322. 1:39:13All right. So
1323. 1:39:15it's interesting though cuz this is just
1324. 1:39:17trending trending trending.
1325. 1:39:20Awesome. Just like how high does it go?
1326. 1:39:24Stops trending stop.
1327. 1:39:29How high does it go or is it done right
1328. 1:39:31now? Because I'm looking at it. That's
1329. 1:39:32the thing. You don't know. I don't know
1330. 1:39:35those things.
1331. 1:39:39This could be the exact pico top right
1332. 1:39:41here.
1333. 1:39:48Pico top.
1334. 1:39:54Maybe that's a trade within itself.
1335. 1:39:58It's the
1336. 1:40:00Oh,
1337. 1:40:02not here to say all that. I'm just
1338. 1:40:04investigating, dude. I'm a data dog just
1339. 1:40:05like you. You're the data dog that found
1340. 1:40:07me. You're the data dog. You researched
1341. 1:40:08somehow and you clicked on this video
1342. 1:40:10and you saying, "Hi, Mundo." And then
1343. 1:40:12you're like, "Let me get into the Zoom,
1344. 1:40:13too." Okay, let's get it, dude. But
1345. 1:40:16you're the data dog. Thank you for your
1346. 1:40:17presence.
1347. 1:42:00uh knowing meta story and everything
1348. 1:42:01everyone does.
1349. 1:42:04Oh goodness.
1350. 1:42:06Meta is the Cardono of AI. Holy hell.
1351. 1:42:12[laughter]
1352. 1:42:14The Cardono of AI.
1353. 1:42:16Holy hell, dude.
1354. 1:42:20Guys are meta haters, huh? Zucky Zuck
1355. 1:42:22haters.
1356. 1:42:24[ __ ] That's crazy. That makes sense
1357. 1:42:26though. Makes sense.
1358. 1:42:36They be looking at all our data. For
1359. 1:42:37sure. For sure.
1360. 1:42:42But Google is too.
1361. 1:42:47Google is too. So, they're listening to
1362. 1:42:49this right now. Hey googly googly,
1363. 1:42:52please don't give me that strike,
1364. 1:42:54please. Thank you. Nice job to you. 777
1365. 1:43:14there. She's still cooking.
1366. 1:43:17She's smoke testing.
1367. 1:46:15Let's go ahead and see what it looks
1368. 1:46:16like now.
1369. 1:46:18It's a little more analysis. It might
1370. 1:46:20take a little bit longer, but that's
1371. 1:46:22okay. We got time. Patience require
1372. 1:46:27ATX.
1373. 1:46:30Okay. Um,
1374. 1:46:33so I I ran it again. Oh, snap.
1375. 1:46:39It's V2.
1376. 1:46:51Nice.
1377. 1:47:11Bye. Uh,
1378. 1:47:18bang bang. Hey,
1379. 1:47:5210% gainers. This is the weird thing
1380. 1:47:53about it.
1381. 1:48:11Oh, it's because it's up on the seven
1382. 1:48:13there. I see.
1383. 1:48:42MU 7%.
1384. 1:48:45Shwa 1.26%. It's just been going
1385. 1:48:49straight up.
1386. 1:48:52Ew. Ewy.
1387. 1:48:55Don't know what that is. Ew.
1388. 1:49:10What is it?