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Chess Master Reveals the Trading Strategy That Won the World Trading Championship 3 Times — Transcript

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0:00In this episode of Warclass Edge, you'll
0:02not just meet a trader. Jans Mullen was
0:04a chess master with 2,400 fed elo. That
0:08means being in the top 0.001%
0:11of chess players worldwide. He was also
0:13a highstakes poker player. His brain is
0:16wired to look for probabilities,
0:18tactics, and strategy. And his trading
0:21success reflects exactly this. three
0:24times joining the World Trading
0:25Championships, three times at the first
0:27place, 113% for two years in a row, and
0:31more than 200% in its best year. And
0:33after spending years in the professional
0:35space and trading for a macro hedge fund
0:37in Switzerland, in this interview, he'll
0:39share the exact blueprint to use
0:41macroeconomics and fundamental sentiment
0:44to find extremely high probability trade
0:47ideas and what are the absolute best
0:49setups where market are forced to make
0:52you money. Ladies and gentlemen, Yan
0:54Smolen.
0:57>> What do you think
0:59traders don't get about macroeconomics?
1:03And why do so many people just ignore
1:06it?
1:07>> Do do most rettor traders even
1:10understand something about macroecon
1:11economics? That's the question.
1:13>> That's the real question. It's it's not
1:15a question what they don't understand
1:16like which part they do understand
1:18because obviously like macroeconomics is
1:21like it's really really hard thing to to
1:24understand in general like it's uh I was
1:26teaching macroeconomics myself and it's
1:28like really really hard
1:31for me to understand and I'm not even
1:33sure that the many thing they teach even
1:35in the university if they are correct or
1:37not. So it's kind of it's a very very
1:40extremely complicated subject in general
1:43and uh particularly for people for
1:45example who didn't study it or or even
1:48for people who did study it but like
1:50didn't get really involved
1:53it's like almost impossible to
1:54understand anything about it and in
1:57particular again in relation to trading
2:00like I would I would totally like divide
2:03two things there is the macroeconomics
2:06and there is the macro which is related
2:08to trading. It's again like what they
2:09teach you in the university was written
2:11in the books and there's almost almost
2:13no application trading. So you have
2:15basically you have to like if you want
2:16to to use some of this stuff I think
2:19it's very much possible to use it but
2:21you like you basically you need to
2:23forget more or less what you what you
2:26learned in the book most of it and you
2:28just need to totally recreate your
2:31knowledge. So
2:32>> so yes so and what so you asked what
2:35they understand about I don't I don't
2:37think
2:38>> let me rephrase let me rephrase the
2:39question uh so that it's it matters to
2:43the people who view this video because
2:45most of them are technical traders uh
2:47traders who have not gotten in touch so
2:50much with with not just macroeconomics
2:53as a as as a as a topic but like like
2:55your approach specifically with macro
2:57and sentiment and fundamentals. Why do
2:59you think it's a missing piece that
3:01could be valuable for them?
3:03>> Yes. So I I think if they if they
3:05watched my master class, I think there
3:07are some things which are real. Of
3:08course, they it's not going to make you
3:10a great fundamental trader, but there
3:12are some concepts
3:14which yeah, it's a little bit of a
3:16mystery why why the people don't
3:19understand at least this simple concepts
3:21about it which they could understand
3:22which is like not that complicated. But
3:25uh yeah, maybe since uh since like not
3:30many people even uh even uh on the
3:33retail sides of things at least
3:35obviously like more experienced traders
3:37and more more famous traders obviously
3:40use this stuff but on the retail stuff
3:42retail side of things like not many
3:44people even use it. So there is like uh
3:47nowhere too much to learn. that
3:48basically there's a lot of groups and
3:50things like they're posting the stuff
3:51about the Fed meetings which is totally
3:54outrageous
3:55and uh and like uh every everybody's
3:58everybody's posted that even even the
4:00people who are good in trading like
4:02that's that's kind of uh funny funny
4:05part about it that like I respect these
4:06traders I I think they're good traders
4:08but still they posted like really really
4:11stupid [ __ ] about it. So, so yes, so
4:13there is like not too many places to
4:16learn like there are some people here
4:18and there who understands some stuff but
4:19there's like for every one person who
4:21understands something there are like 10
4:23thousand of people who don't understand
4:24anything and uh and yeah they probably
4:27like they don't even try too much to to
4:31use it in their trading. So they so they
4:33they maybe they post this kind of like
4:36stupid stuff but it's not even too
4:37crucial for them. They just like kind
4:39of, you know, they just [ __ ] him
4:40more or less and they don't even care
4:42that they were wrong and they don't even
4:44like somehow try to think about it
4:45afterwards that like, okay, I was
4:47probably didn't have to say this and
4:50they like uh they like say this stuff
4:54like again and again and again and
4:55obviously they can proven wrong but
4:57doesn't prevent them to to try to guess
5:01for example the the Fed beat action the
5:03next time and
5:04>> and be wrong again or like
5:06>> Yeah. And so what do you think is the
5:10why should one for example as a day
5:12trader even or or or a trader in general
5:15get deeper into this? What's the what's
5:17the key benefit? is is what we mentioned
5:19already like yeah in in trading if
5:21somebody if everybody is doing this
5:23there's not too much value in this for
5:25example all the traders I know less
5:27experienced trader every one of them is
5:29starting from with technical analysis
5:31because it's the easiest one to
5:32understand and obviously is the the one
5:35with the least value in it because like
5:37everybody is using it all the like
5:39particularly on the retail side again
5:41and like yeah everybody's learned the
5:45same chart setup which is the easiest
5:47for the experienced
5:49traders or for the algos or for the AI
5:52to kill, you're not going to have like
5:54too much success with it. So, so if you
5:57want to have success in trading, you
5:59need to learn stuff which is more
6:02complicated or at least even if it's not
6:04like because I wouldn't say that the
6:07fundamental stuff I'm using is too much
6:10complicated but at least it's is it's
6:12not the stuff which like every guy is
6:14using in the market. So,
6:16>> Mhm. So if you want a one reason that's
6:19the one reason I would I would emphasize
6:21is like it's a good stuff because of on
6:24the retail side almost nobody's using
6:28>> and do you think that
6:31um is it useful
6:34for retail day traders specifically
6:38because a lot of people now are focusing
6:40specifically like on one time frame one
6:42asset but I think the cool thing about
6:43global macro and macro sentiment in
6:45general is understanding also the the
6:48big flow of money, right? And so in your
6:50experience, you you also day trade with
6:52with you know a macro background. Do you
6:55think it can be useful for example for
6:57you know understanding the overall
6:58direction of a market and then
7:00exploiting it also in an intraday
7:03fashion?
7:03>> So so for me is the most uh useful on
7:06couple of days basis. So let's say uh
7:10three 4 days maybe 2 days like this kind
7:13of this kind of frame. Uh on the
7:17intraday a bit less so on the like even
7:21longer than 3 days also less so because
7:23like it's changing all the time. So like
7:25you need to be on the lookout for
7:27changes. So yeah, so like uh 3 days
7:30let's say the average three days would
7:32be would be the time frame where I think
7:36is most most useful on the intraday.
7:38Yes, sometimes sometimes you can trade
7:40for sure you can trade the intraday
7:41setup sometimes on the news fade in the
7:43news sometimes going with the news. So,
7:47so for example, for me like uh the
7:50intraday very very good intraday setup
7:54uh was I mentioned in my master class uh
7:57war speech which which happened this
7:59Thursday which was I think very
8:01important for the market and the market
8:03I think was starting to lean in hawkish
8:05so more bearish
8:08uh in the medium term and this is this
8:11was something which moved the market
8:12very much in the opposite side and it
8:14was also
8:16kind of the news which is not that much
8:18followed by the market. So, so this war
8:20speech is kind of less uh
8:23>> uh less forward and it took some time
8:25for the for the people to digest that
8:27like what what actually happened because
8:28like he was talking something he's not
8:30even the fed chair like if he were the
8:32was the Fed chair like it would be it
8:35would be more fold but he's he isn't
8:37he's just the like one participants or
8:40one of the participants on the Fed
8:42meeting
8:42>> even though I would consider maybe him
8:44to be even more important to than Worsh
8:47but like like at least an important one.
8:49Yeah. So, it was a little bit like uh
8:52not not not such a follow news
8:54>> as you normally get and so market didn't
8:57move immediately on that. Market was
8:59kind of digesting kind of moving a
9:00little bit up then moving moving a
9:02little bit down again and by following
9:03this news and maybe understanding it a
9:05little bit better than the general
9:07market. I could get out of my my short
9:10position basically h my short position I
9:12could I had like enough time for it for
9:15sure. I had like half an hour hour for
9:17this. Uh even posting on on
9:23X about it that probably I was wrong
9:25because I was certainly expecting him to
9:27be hawkish and he was hawkish before and
9:29I didn't see any reason for him to
9:31change in to change his stance which he
9:33did. uh and uh and yeah, so if you want
9:37an example of I think a very good uh
9:40intraday use of the macro setup like
9:42this was this and I hedged my position
9:44only basically on for that day alone
9:47because I'm still
9:49>> still still holding my bearish news
9:51bearish views on the market. But for
9:53this particular date I I day I certainly
9:57wasn't bearish. So at least like I I
9:59didn't go too much bullish but like at
10:00least didn't want to to be on the
10:02bearish side which which proven to be
10:04very much correct because like uh the
10:06market went up of more than 1%. So this
10:10is this was for example the intraday but
10:12as I'm saying like mostly these are more
10:14like a couple of days setups which is
10:17more
10:18>> I I remember because the
10:20the first time we recorded a master
10:22class with you uh I think by then the
10:25main theme of the market was inflation
10:27and CPI and and and you basically shared
10:30us share with us some ideas on how to
10:32trade the CPI release uh if there was
10:34for example a very high surprise on that
10:38data. How so do you think that cuz
10:40there's this rule of thumb which is in
10:43you know I would like to hear your
10:44opinion on that between retails that
10:46ignore macroeconomics or ignore
10:48fundamentals that you should not trade
10:50during news days. What's your stance on
10:52that and how do you instead select the
10:55right news to follow? Yeah. So for me
10:58certainly the news are still the like as
11:01a as a macro trader I still like the the
11:04news the most but uh maybe I'm a bit
11:08less compared to the last interview we
11:09had. I'm maybe a bit less concerned with
11:13the news itself and more about how the
11:16market behaves before the news and after
11:18the news and was the general kind of uh
11:21uh flows and stuff like that before
11:24because before the news like usually you
11:26have some hedging
11:27>> uh people are a bit nervous so they
11:30hedge. So usually before the news many
11:32times
11:34many times uh you get negative price
11:37action then on the uh day day of the
11:40news itself these are very bullish days
11:43usually because like the hedges go off
11:46in the pre-market before the news the
11:48market gets a little bit more bullish
11:49usually
11:50>> and uh after the news also like in many
11:53cases you get also bullish reaction so
11:55so yes so like u maybe maybe that time I
12:00was more talking about yeah trading the
12:02news itself. This time I'm like changed
12:04my trading more to the flows around it
12:07because I think the market became more
12:10tricky in the last last few years where
12:13>> what do you mean
12:13>> where where many times you don't get as
12:16straightforward reaction as you had
12:18before and this is not only with the
12:20news
12:20>> also with the many many other setups
12:23it's just like it just tricks you many
12:25times many many times you just before I
12:27was also in my master class I was
12:29talking about the straps all the time
12:31and yeah I
12:33So before the traps were normal but now
12:35the market doesn't even move without
12:37setting a trap. So like say
12:41trading the news itself I think is much
12:43harder than it was before but still like
12:46if you if you
12:48>> take it on a little bit just a little
12:50bit longer time frame a couple of days I
12:53think it's still good but let's see
12:55let's see how it goes going forward like
12:57I still
12:58>> I'm adjusting my trading all the time so
13:00maybe like in two years I'm again we'll
13:04tell something else about it maybe I
13:06will need to adjust
13:08Um
13:10you mentioned something that I would
13:11like to touch on which is the whole how
13:14markets are kind of evolving. Um
13:18and there's the whole theme of AI and
13:20how you know algorithms are now big
13:22participation of the market but be even
13:24before we get into that be even before
13:26the argument that AI will make
13:29everything even more efficient even
13:30before all of this
13:33what do you think about
13:36this argument where
13:39there's already participants that are
13:41way more informed than us on every
13:43fundamental perspective uh and Markets
13:46are extremely efficient already. So it's
13:48hard or almost useless to look for an
13:51edge with publicly available information
13:54such as macroeconomics because market
13:56are super efficient or do you think like
13:58what's your position on this or you
14:00think there's still some some space for
14:01retail traders to find an edge? Uh I I'm
14:03not sure how to define efficient even
14:05like I wouldn't uh I would maybe
14:10I would say that markets are much more
14:12about flows and about the some kind of
14:14yeah about flows and setting traps and
14:16stuff like this like to for example for
14:19example is market efficient when it's
14:21when it's set in trap like is is
14:22obviously set in trap is just once you
14:24just move in one direction I think like
14:27that's my opinion maybe somebody could
14:29have another opinion maybe could even
14:31persuade me that I'm wrong about it but
14:33some movements in the market I think are
14:35just totally just about like setting the
14:38trap for the traders. So is market
14:40efficient at the time when it's setting
14:41the trap like
14:43maybe from some perspective it is
14:45efficient but like from the other is
14:48just it's just moving the price opposite
14:51of what is sinking
14:53>> itself just to set the trap for the
14:55people or just to just to stop stop the
14:58stop losses.
14:59>> Mhm. just to stop people out before it
15:01moves. So basically if you can
15:04>> if you are one step ahead and you manage
15:07to expect this that this market is
15:09probably going to do this or or
15:13uh or at least when it's already done it
15:16to recognize that this is what happened.
15:19Yeah. So I think this can be basically
15:21you can use this. Yeah. Maybe for for
15:24most of the people they're going to get
15:26like stopped out there. they're getting
15:27they're getting like for them it might
15:30be a problem but if you are able to to
15:32spot these instances
15:33>> Mhm.
15:35>> you are able to to use it other things
15:38is like you get the flows of the market
15:40again like if for example
15:43this there are periods of the year when
15:45the companies are doing buybacks and
15:48there are periods of the year when they
15:49are not doing buybacks. So basically
15:50they are buying their own shares at the
15:52time. Yeah. Is the market efficient?
15:54Like nothing fundamentally changed about
15:56the company during the time when they're
15:57doing the buybacks. It's just the
15:59basically the these are just the flaws
16:01which are coming to the market. The
16:03company didn't get better when they
16:04doing the buybacks. Yeah. So basically
16:06if you understand okay this is the time
16:08when they doing the buybacks and this
16:10make of course you are not going to
16:11trade just only on that but if you like
16:14just
16:15>> put it inside your whole analysis and
16:18there also the buybacks are happening
16:19here. Yeah. is the time when you want to
16:22be more bullish for example again is it
16:24efficient that the you know like from
16:27some perspective it is but like nothing
16:29fundamentally changed about the company
16:31during the time
16:32>> and there are the other times when the
16:33companies are doing hedging
16:35>> also is it so much efficient that they
16:37are doing the hedging during the time
16:39when more or less
16:42>> everybody knew knows that after the
16:45event the the the hedges are going to be
16:48released and we are going to go up like
16:50not 100% but 80% of the time and they
16:52are still doing hedging for this event
16:54even though like rationally it's not
16:57it's not very rational because like
16:58rationally we are going to go up after
17:00the after the event. Yes. So like is it
17:03so much efficient like I I wouldn't like
17:06yeah in some sense it is it's logical at
17:08least like many many of these moves are
17:11really logical but I personally wouldn't
17:14wouldn't call them that efficient from
17:16some some perspective you could
17:17certainly call them efficient but like
17:19there is still like a lot of a lot of
17:22stuff you can use and even a lot of
17:25stuff which is not so easy for alos to
17:27to basically to kill this edge because
17:30like uh particular If you're trading on
17:32not on the intraday basis but on the
17:34like as I said like three five day or
17:37maybe even longer term basis you know
17:41this is not so easy because yeah like
17:44how how are they going to do it like
17:45it's hard for them to manipulate the
17:48price for for the longer periods like
17:49they can do it in the short term but for
17:51the longer periods it's not easy to do
17:53it.
17:53>> Mhm.
17:54>> And uh and these flaws are there. Yeah.
17:56Like
17:57>> Yeah. Because this is of course a
17:59provocative question because uh I' I've
18:01heard it very often from let's say
18:04people who are more in the investing
18:05world and they invest long-term and they
18:07believe in the fact that every news is
18:10priced in immediately and you know it's
18:12there's no way to get an edge and you
18:14know and the markets are perfectly
18:16embedding in price all the information
18:18available
18:19>> and you know it's that that's why they
18:21it's the so-called efficient market
18:22hypothesis but then you know as I
18:25studied macroeconomics with you I
18:26realized with like the flows you're
18:29mentioning, right? It's it's not one
18:31flow and then price stays there. It's
18:33like a drift that lasts for months and
18:35months and months. And one of the things
18:38that uh you mentioned also in the
18:40masterass
18:42um is one of the that causes this long
18:45drifts also potentially super long
18:47trends is the u the whole macroeconomic
18:49cycles. uh can you summarize for us a a
18:52blueprint to understand what could
18:55happen from a monetary perspective and
18:57how that typically affects the market to
18:59find trade ideas.
19:02>> Okay. So
19:04uh there is a lot uh to this question to
19:09cover. So like from the very simple
19:11perspective like obviously liquidity is
19:13very good for the markets. Liquidity is
19:16tied to many things like not only to the
19:19interest rates uh but interest rates is
19:22some part of it. So, so yeah. So, for
19:26example, last time when liquidity was uh
19:30very much withdrawn from the markets was
19:33uh after covid so during the covid a lot
19:36of liquidity came to the market and then
19:38we got the inflation worries and uh the
19:42liquidity was very much withdrawn. So
19:43that's that's why uh after the covid
19:46period for example many people were
19:48believing that this is the end of the
19:49world and they were like still
19:51everything was shut in uh all like many
19:54it was a real problem for many
19:56businesses particularly small businesses
19:58and stuff and like many pro many people
20:00even the experienced ones saw that this
20:03is going to be like a real real bad for
20:06the economy and like we are going to get
20:08another financial crisis and stuff like
20:10that. But it was accompanied by the huge
20:12liquidity from the Fed and basically the
20:15the Fed stopped the whole crisis by the
20:18huge uh liquidity injection into the
20:21markets and like okay everything was
20:24like uh like the businesses uh were get
20:28were get it bankrupt. Yeah. like the
20:31economy was still in the problems but
20:33this fed liquidity basically
20:36>> basically no it didn't it didn't it
20:39didn't save many businesses but but it
20:42saved the markets at least like S&P 500
20:45like for example for the Russell it was
20:47much more of a problem because with this
20:48small companies which were getting
20:50bankrupt it was a real problem but for
20:52the S&P 500 which got like had which is
20:57consists of 500 largest companies they
20:59most of and like maybe all of them were
21:02not getting bankrupt and like liquidity
21:05meant that we went up like crazy.
21:07>> Mhm.
21:07>> Then the opposite happened in uh 2022.
21:11So we started to have the inflation
21:13worries and the fed particularly because
21:16of the injection uh dur liquidity
21:19injection during COVID.
21:21>> Yeah. So we started to have the the uh
21:26worries
21:28uh about inflation and what Fed did it
21:30started to increase the interest rates
21:32and obviously this was the only
21:36prolonged negative price action in the
21:39equity markets we had in the last 12
21:42years. Yeah. We had we never had this.
21:44We had some crashes and stuff like that
21:46but this were short short-term events.
21:48Yeah. and many crashes but the only like
21:50prolonged negative price action on the
21:53market really like really like
21:55unpleasant for the traders because for
21:57days particularly with with low
21:59liquidity. Yeah. The also the people
22:00like the VIX traders were totally like
22:02the volatility traders were were totally
22:05killed on the time during the time
22:07because like uh many people hedge with
22:09the volatility.
22:10>> Yeah. and and this was the very very
22:13unpleasant time uh on the market because
22:16the price action went down and the
22:18people who were on who owned options and
22:21who owned uh VIX calls were were were
22:25getting killed as well. So, so for
22:27people the like the the negative like
22:30the the market crashes usually is much
22:33much less uh unpleasant than this kind
22:36of negative slow everyday down price
22:40action we got in 2022 2023 and we got
22:43this like you know it it coincides
22:46exactly with
22:47>> with the period when the Fed was writing
22:50rising rates and withdrawing
22:53>> liquidity from the market. So if you
22:54understand the macroeconomics, you could
22:56understand it like okay this thing I
22:59probably need to trade in a different
23:00way than I'm used to. And people
23:02obviously were used to something
23:04completely different like
23:05>> for many many years we didn't have such
23:07setup and now again for a couple of
23:09years we didn't have anything like this.
23:11>> Yeah.
23:11>> So yes so so this is just just one one
23:15example but you can use it in many many
23:17different ways. So is is obviously you
23:19could talk for hours about it.
23:20>> Yeah. Yeah. And we have the master class
23:22for that. So I don't want to over repeat
23:24what we did today because it was an
23:25intense day already. But if you had to
23:27summarize let's say the three the three
23:28best like
23:30>> most obvious trades in a cycle in a in a
23:34hiking cycle or or or let's say monetary
23:37cycle the the one or two or the three
23:39best trades that you say like it's it's
23:40going to happen I wouldn't say 100% but
23:4290%.
23:43>> So I think the the market which is most
23:46mostly influenced by the by the cycle of
23:48the Fed is certainly gold.
23:50>> Mhm. because with the with the instances
23:52is kind of is is kind of more
23:55complicated in a way that they're
23:57impacted but by much more than the
23:59interest rates. Sometimes the growth is
24:01so high that even with the rise in
24:03interest rates like it's not so bad for
24:04the for the equities but gold I think is
24:07really like the the trade which is very
24:10much impacted by the
24:12>> Mhm. by the interest rates and yeah like
24:14uh probably every trade if we are
24:16talking about the easiest trades and
24:18like most obvious trades in the with the
24:22interest rates I would say this this
24:24would be the the gold trades and in
24:26particular like before the hiking cycle
24:28goes usually down which happened again
24:30just now yeah like if you if you notice
24:33what gold did for starting from January
24:35yeah
24:35>> after the huge fun like it and it
24:37happened before and before Yeah. So
24:39let's say
24:42uh this is the third uh hiking cycle
24:46which I personally do observe and before
24:49every one of them gold went down. Yeah.
24:51So at least like exit your gold long
24:54positions like you don't have
24:55necessarily to go short but at least if
24:58if they they starting to talk about
25:01hikes that's the worst time to to own
25:04gold when they just started like you
25:06know many people maybe would even even
25:08the ones who understand that like the
25:10the hiking cycle is bad for gold but uh
25:12they would maybe just wait until you get
25:15the the more like specific information
25:18when the hike cycle that's that's not
25:20when the goat goes like once they once
25:23is already priced in is already like a
25:26bit better. You could get some choppy
25:27action but like it goes more or less up
25:29and down. But this this uh periods when
25:32the when they only start to talk about
25:35it that's the worst period when the
25:37rumor starts.
25:38>> Yeah.
25:38>> Yeah. Yeah. Because before that it
25:40usually goes up like crazy. So you have
25:42kind of some a lot of speculative money
25:44in it. Yeah. And then and then and then
25:47what happens? Yeah. with this huge
25:48speculative run and huge speculative run
25:51and maybe even like in the end of the
25:53moves you get like the hu the the most
25:55significant moves you get in the end
25:57when really like the spec the the like
25:59most speculative money comes into it and
26:02that's exactly usually the time when
26:03like they start to just only to like
26:05somebody just mention oh maybe like you
26:08know
26:09>> everyone gets margin called on the
26:10leverage. Yeah, maybe or just maybe you
26:12know there is so so for example this
26:14time the the go the this gold ran was
26:16killed
26:17>> by the when when war was uh
26:21>> I think he was only
26:24chosen as the next chair so he didn't
26:26even say anything or maybe he he said
26:29something before a little bit hawkish
26:30yeah but uh that was basically when when
26:33the that was the day when the when we
26:37got the top right the like I think he
26:40was basically that Trump has chosen him
26:42if I'm not mistaken. I think that was
26:43the or something related to worship at
26:44least. Yeah. So that was that was when
26:46we got the top because he was considered
26:48to be like more more hawkish compared to
26:51the other alternatives we so this is
26:53kind of the small information and I
26:55myself didn't even like you know
26:57>> trade it necessarily
26:58>> and yeah I didn't maybe notice like I
27:00wasn't didn't myself believe maybe that
27:03he's going to be as hawkish as some
27:05people think but you get you know some
27:06little little bit of doubt there in the
27:09market and obvious enough in this
27:11speculative phase of the market is
27:14already enough for it to make to make a
27:16top. And this was the top. We didn't
27:17cross it uh until now. And obviously we
27:20went down like I think it was 5,300
27:23then is yeah 4,000 now. So we got a 30%
27:27drop without even like we still are not
27:29sure if we if we get the hiking cycle.
27:31Maybe in the end of the day I can
27:33imagine we don't even get the hiking
27:35cycle even though I think we get it but
27:37like I can imagine the alternative
27:39scenario but obviously it went down
27:40since then it went down and like the the
27:43news uh got priced in since then yeah
27:46the chances increase. So that's that's
27:49this so like this is this is the one
27:51thing then then like the next thing
27:52during the phase like when the when the
27:56hiking cycle actually starts and during
27:58this like whole period of the hikes the
28:00the goat usually don't doesn't go down
28:02as much. just like chops around and then
28:04when the hiking cycle ends then they it
28:07usually like just starts going
28:09>> or when they say that maybe will end
28:13>> like from from the experience it it
28:15shows like the the the date of the end
28:18of the hiking cycle that's like that's
28:20like uh the date where the the goal just
28:22starts to go up but if if it's if it's
28:25going with the next hiking cycle it's
28:27going to be a little bit more tricky and
28:28it's maybe going to be a little bit
28:30different like obviously I'm very much
28:33open to it like you know
28:34>> these markets as said are becoming much
28:37more tricky like every year so like uh I
28:39wouldn't be like until this point is
28:41like it worked like clockwork.
28:43>> Yeah. Yeah. Clockwork.
28:44>> So like it was it's unbelievable if you
28:46check the chart in the master classes
28:48it's unbelievable how it work but like I
28:50wouldn't be surprised at all if going
28:52forward it's not going to be that easy.
28:53So,
28:54>> Mhm.
28:54>> So, how do you help yourself? Like what
28:56are the other tools that then you put
28:57together? Because the the the it's it's
29:00one thing to say, hey, this is going to
29:01happen and then it will happen. But the
29:03markets will try to anticipate, right?
29:04Everyone will start betting a little bit
29:07before and and the move the the macro
29:10move happens before the macro data comes
29:12out typically, right? Uh so, u just
29:16briefly introduce us to like the
29:18sentiment part of of of your process.
29:20what are the tools that you like to use
29:22to assess if it's a good time for also
29:25the sentiment part and you know time the
29:28entry a little bit.
29:29>> Yeah. So
29:31so the the basic the basic stuff is that
29:34basically the the hedging periods are
29:36bearish for the market and when the
29:37hedges are releases is bullish. So
29:39that's what it that's how it works and
29:41is again it's it's maybe it's possible
29:44but it's not so easy to to kill this
29:46edge because like that's related to the
29:48logics of the market. Yeah. So yeah
29:51structure structural logics of the
29:53market. So basically before the events
29:55people get worried so they
29:58>> so they buy hedges when they buy hedges
30:01the price action is kind of negative
30:03because it's kind of similar to to
30:05shorting the market and uh and after the
30:08hedges are released is bullish. So from
30:10this perspective is again like one of
30:12the easy kind of fundamental
30:16uh fundamentals thing we see on the
30:19markets uh again and again and again.
30:22Mhm.
30:22>> Now from the sentiment
30:25side of the things is like yeah it's a
30:28little bit different things where yeah
30:31we we at least I try to establish like
30:34what different types what different
30:36parts of the markets are doing and in
30:39some in some cases followed and in some
30:42cases faded. So, so these are kind of
30:45two different uh types of analysis which
30:48I combine and usually so for example for
30:50example like I have this kind of bearish
30:53period from the calendar type uh from
30:56the calendar perspective and then I also
30:58see something that smart money are
31:00distributing during the same time. So
31:02it's a great great setup for me. So I
31:04see the same thing uh on the sentiment
31:06type of side of thing and on the more
31:09kind of fundamental calendar side of
31:12things. Yes. So I'm seeing I'm seeing
31:13the same stuff. Maybe I also see some
31:16trap on the market also set up at the
31:18same time. So like there are three
31:20different perspective on the on the
31:22market which point to the same in the
31:24same direction. And I'm in this
31:27instances I'm uh like obviously not 100%
31:30far from it but maybe I'm I could say
31:32maybe even 80% I'm I'm I'm sure that the
31:36price action is going to be in in the
31:38way I expect or at least at least not
31:40going to go totally against me.
31:42>> Mhm.
31:43>> Okay. So like yes. So this is kind of
31:45you combine different perspective and
31:48perspective of the market and uh and and
31:52if they point in the same direction then
31:54you then you
31:57>> uh then you go into into into the trade
32:00in this setup. So other other kind of uh
32:03very very good setup like I would say
32:05this is the ultimate setup of the market
32:07which maybe contradicts a little bit the
32:11uh
32:12the this efficient hypothesis
32:16>> view is that like sometimes you get like
32:18really negative sentiment on the market.
32:20Everybody is short in that like every
32:22the other side is totally like
32:24obliterated by the other side.
32:26Particularly if it's the bullish side
32:28who is obliterated by the bearish side
32:30because it's easier like to trade on the
32:33bullish side and like if the bulls are
32:35really like put in the corner. So is a
32:39is a is kind of a good setup where I'm
32:42getting interested only interested not
32:45necessarily already trading it and then
32:47like you get some bullish catalyst into
32:50that and this is basically the best
32:52possible setup where where the the
32:55market is going to totally change and
32:57now the the bulls who have been totally
33:01obliterated for like 3 months they're
33:04going to have like three months
33:06advantage and when bulls are getting the
33:08advantage like is much stronger
33:10advantage than the bears had before
33:12usually. So the market is going to
33:14compensate like really badly like
33:17usually it's not it's not going to go
33:18back but usually going back in let's say
33:21for 3 months is is was going down in 3
33:25weeks is going to compensate and then
33:27like the next three months is going to
33:29provide much more. So you you get like
33:31really like this kind of
33:35>> very expensive
33:36>> one side one side actions which
33:39>> I wouldn't say that they were you know
33:42priced in by the market at least at the
33:44point of the of this change in sentiment
33:47you know very small part of the market
33:51uh managed to
33:52>> to change the sentiment immediately this
33:54is the process which goes usually for
33:57the for the like long period of time the
34:00participants like more and more and more
34:04participants are starting to believe
34:06this move and start to join this move
34:08and if you are able to to join this this
34:11move in the first you don't even need to
34:13change it I wouldn't even advise to
34:16people to start to to to to join it on
34:19the first day because it's many cases it
34:21might be still too tricky yeah you're
34:24still like not sure what's going on but
34:25maybe on the third day or fourth day you
34:27still like you have a lot of time. Yeah,
34:30you still even if you like
34:32>> join it after two weeks, usually you're
34:33still early say even after that and like
34:37in many cases after two weeks let's say
34:39you you can be like much more sure about
34:42the move than you were before and you're
34:44still early.
34:45>> Mhm. Back to the the topic of
34:48efficiency. Um, do you think in your
34:51experience uh that algorithms first and
34:54now AI is making the market harder to
34:58trade for for for traders and where do
35:01you think this is going in the next 10
35:0220 50 years?
35:03>> Just just one one more thing I wanted to
35:05I wanted to mention to to the last
35:07discussion we had like even like what I
35:10what I mentioned that you don't have to
35:11to become involved immediately. So I
35:14just I just remembered why one
35:15interesting interview I I saw with the I
35:18I saw I think it was with the Dragon Mer
35:20but if if it wasn't him with some famous
35:23investor and he was exactly saying
35:25saying this that he basically uh divides
35:28the the bullish trend into nine innings.
35:30So you have the first innings the second
35:32and so on and basically he's interested
35:34in the third to six inning the most. So
35:37that's basically the middle part of the
35:39move which he's mostly interested in.
35:42And basically, yeah, I I like that a lot
35:44because this is maybe the easiest part
35:46of the move is the sword to six and you
35:48don't you don't want to be involved as
35:50much.
35:51>> You don't want to time the perfectly the
35:52>> No, no, no. Maybe maybe you the top or
35:55the bottom like Yeah.
35:57whichever whichever way you want to put
35:59it. But basically that you don't need to
36:01try to be too early because many people
36:03obviously try to to to find the tops of
36:05the market or bottom of the markets is
36:07like the the
36:10like
36:12uh favorite retail game. Yeah. To find
36:14the tops and fight the bottoms. And this
36:16is extremely hard to do. Yeah. Because
36:18like if you have for example the
36:20trending move which is going against you
36:23usually the trending like the trending
36:25move has the advantage to continue. It's
36:28more probable that is going to continue.
36:30It's much more probable I would say even
36:32much more probable to
36:34>> to continue compared to reversal. So
36:36there going to be many fake spikes which
36:38looks like trend reversal but then it
36:40continues again and again and again. So
36:42you don't need to be you don't need to
36:44to to try to find the tops and bottoms.
36:46Yeah. You just uh you see this nice
36:48trend reversal. You see it's already it
36:52seems like everyone everything points to
36:53reversal and you basically you you play
36:55the the this middle type of the move
36:58middle part of the move and you are
37:00obviously not too much interested to be
37:02involved in the end because like there
37:03is a huge huge chance of reversal
37:06already and uh you are not too much
37:08interested also in this this first
37:10innings of the move the middle part is
37:12which which you play. So that's that's
37:14the advice I I like about it a lot.
37:17>> Nice.
37:18>> And yeah and now let's move to the
37:20>> yeah to the question of uh of let's say
37:22algorithm and AI making the market more
37:24efficient. Where do you see this going?
37:25>> Certainly certainly makes it much more
37:28difficult and much more challenging and
37:30maybe for some people like who were
37:32successful in the markets before I'm not
37:34so sure they will be able to continue to
37:36be successful. But like I'm seeing a lot
37:39of people like saying like, "Oh, this is
37:41the hardest market I've ever traded."
37:43And like I continue seeing this these uh
37:47posts and certainly from my experience
37:49like there's a lot of things I used
37:51before which I can't use anymore and
37:54like I need to evolve and like yeah so
37:56like for sure the market markets became
38:00harder. I think if you are able somehow
38:04to adjust is uh is easier for you than
38:07for other people.
38:08>> How would you do it?
38:10>> Uh so for me is uh for me the the way I
38:14I trade is uh is I'm trying to trade
38:18many markets and uh and uh many methods.
38:21So for example, if a couple of methods
38:23stopped working anymore, it's not so
38:24much a big deal for me because
38:25diversifying
38:26>> still still can can rely on the others
38:29and uh and in particular uh I'm trying
38:33to employ many different many different
38:36methods and many different approaches in
38:38my market and try to combine them to
38:40find the trades with high probability of
38:42success. So I'm trying to find the
38:44trades with maybe let's say 70 or 80% of
38:47pro probability of success. So compared
38:49to people who have just 60% of
38:53probability if they take away 10% for
38:5610% of this like from 60 you get to 50
38:58but if you if you try to have like 70
39:0180% if they take away 10% from you you
39:05still like
39:06>> could could do reasonably well.
39:10>> Uh also like moving between different
39:12markets. So at times like some markets
39:14are really difficult but some other
39:16markets could be easier to trade. So for
39:18example the easier thing to trade trade
39:21are the bull market. The bull market is
39:25not so easy to lose money in a bull
39:26market. Everybody as they say everybody
39:29is genius in a bull market. Yeah. And
39:31that's when the when this other phase
39:34comes is where basically good good
39:37traders and bad traders are
39:38differentiated. But what you can do is
39:40always try to find the bull market
39:42somewhere. So basically if if we don't
39:45get a bull market in indices if indices
39:48get hard get uh harder maybe you'll find
39:51the bull market somewhere also for
39:53example recently we we got the situation
39:55of this war you know in Iran. So uh
40:00maybe for some people stock markets uh
40:03started to become much much more
40:05difficult during for example March and
40:08April of this year but maybe oil market
40:11became easier. Yeah, we got a nice bull
40:13market in oil. Maybe that one could be
40:17easier for some people. So like
40:18>> yeah. So so this kind of moving between
40:21markets and finding the the markets
40:23which are easier to trade at the
40:25particular time
40:26>> to have to have the backup markets.
40:28>> This is I think the best thing about
40:29global macro because you're you're not
40:31fixed in one asset or even just one
40:34asset class, you know,
40:35>> it's just
40:37>> you go where the volatility is. So, so
40:39for example, in this in this uh example,
40:41I like extremely like the natural gas
40:44market because like sometimes it feels
40:47like uh for example with this Fed. Yeah.
40:51Uh it feels sometimes like everything
40:53everything depends on the Fed now. Yes.
40:55So like so like it feels like if I move
40:57from for example from indices to gold or
41:00somehow differentiate between indices
41:01and gold it feels like almost I'm doing
41:03the same trade sometimes because uh if
41:06if the fat is hish everything is going
41:08to go down if it's obviously not 100%
41:11but there's a whole lot of correlation
41:13between different markets but I like
41:15natural gas a lot because like there's
41:16no correlation whatsoever it doesn't
41:18care about fat like the slightest bit
41:21>> slightest bit and you can just trade
41:23something completely different and
41:25obviously I'm obvious let's let's say it
41:27happens I'm totally wrong on the Fed.
41:29Yeah. Now if I'm if I'm going to to
41:31trade like gold
41:34indices
41:37uh I'm obviously going to incorporate uh
41:40same fundamental stuff into it and it
41:43can happen that I'm going to wrong I'm
41:45going to get wrong like everything about
41:47all these markets.
41:49But on the other side, if I try trade
41:51natural gas, I can very well
41:53differentiate like my trading. So even
41:56if I'm
41:57>> uh wrong, let's say on the fundamental
41:59side of things, I still can make good
42:03good profits in natural gas market for
42:04example.
42:06>> Can you walk us through your worst
42:08trades of the last few years?
42:11>> Oh, yeah. So, so there's one or there's
42:15one market I'm still like really
42:16struggling with and it's bond markets.
42:18So bond market. Yeah. Yeah. So so what
42:20what I used to what I used to always do
42:23I I tried to trade even the markets I
42:26wasn't like very good with. So for
42:27example natural gas market is is one
42:29example where I I lost a lot of money in
42:32natural gas markets before I started to
42:35be like good with it. uh and yeah I I
42:38think like is the best learning is if
42:40you trade like normally like don't do
42:44like some kind of uh uh platform trading
42:47or something like just to learn in
42:49platform or something I try to to trade
42:52uh with the real money even the markets
42:54I'm not that much proficient
42:56>> mh
42:56>> with myself and yeah like uh I
43:01no problems to admit that like uh
43:03natural gas markets like gave me a lot
43:06of pain and uh I didn't trade it in the
43:08right way and like yeah like it it
43:11behaved completely different than the
43:13other markets which was a problem before
43:15but now it's kind of the advantage
43:18>> which I mentioned so so yeah so
43:22so this was the thing but now yeah now
43:26getting back like the bones is still
43:28like I'm I'm really bad with bones like
43:30and uh I think probably I'm not even
43:33going to try to trade them anymore I'm
43:36maybe this is probably much more useful
43:39tool is I think the bones are still a
43:41great kind of macro
43:42>> proxy macro tool but I think is it's
43:46probably much much better and much more
43:49useful for me just to to take
43:51information from that market
43:52>> as an indicator more than then to like
43:55just yeah because basically what what
43:57they say is the bond market is the the
43:59smartest market of all and maybe yeah
44:02the most like the largest market of all
44:04and the most money involved and maybe
44:07that's because they're the smartest
44:08smartest market and I really like this
44:12today I think I'm probably not going to
44:15try to to trade them anymore because
44:17really like I had so many like different
44:21examples where where just stuff which
44:24works even even on the sentiment side of
44:27things not even on the fundamental but
44:28even you also on the way trades like
44:31almost nothing like which works for me
44:33in the other markets
44:35works on the bond markets like really
44:37like really is kind of kind of unbel
44:40unbelievable. So
44:41>> I yeah I'm I'm going to probably just to
44:44to stop trying just to to to basically
44:48>> resign that okay this is smarter than I
44:51am and like just to use it to extract
44:53the information rather than trying to
44:55predict what this particular thing is
44:57going to do in the future.
44:59>> So this is for for sure. Yeah. So so
45:01this is one one one thing I mentioned.
45:03The other thing I mentioned was natural
45:05gas. The other thing I could mention
45:07like after after I started trading, I
45:10basically wiped out my my account
45:12because like uh I started I traded a
45:16little bit also before that but I
45:17started to seriously trade in summer
45:192015 where we got some of the one of the
45:22most unpleasant crashes
45:24uh until this point in summer 2015
45:27August 2015 was really unpleasant like
45:29really huge downwards move which
45:31>> which maybe I hopefully could predict
45:33now but at that time was like totally
45:36impossible for me. See? Yeah. So, so
45:38this would be this would be the examples
45:39particularly Yeah. Particularly with the
45:42with my kind of I don't know strength
45:44and weakness where I just you know I I I
45:48put myself in a in difficult uh
45:51situations sometimes kind of kind of
45:53myself that I I know maybe like
45:56rationally
45:58at least from one rational perspective I
46:01shouldn't do this but on the other hand
46:02like this is this is the way you learn.
46:05Yeah. So I I don't regret that too much.
46:07>> And how about some of the best ones or
46:10the best one
46:12if there is any?
46:12>> No, it's it's more like the Yeah, it's
46:14it's easier for me to talk about the the
46:17really bad ones than
46:19for the then about the the good ones.
46:21The good ones should be kind of the
46:23>> the business as usual that you don't
46:26>> basically you just Yeah. just perform
46:28what you know. And yeah, but yeah, there
46:30was the one I mentioned in the market
46:32class. I'm quite quite proud of it was
46:34because I usually I I I don't predict
46:37the what's going to happen too much. I
46:40mean the data releases and stuff like
46:42that. But one of the one of the releases
46:45which I'm pretty good with and I haven't
46:48been wrong until this point are the the
46:51Fed decisions with the interest rates.
46:54So not their talks, not the not the
46:56other related stuff which might still be
46:58quite tricky but at least with the
47:00interest rate decision I was never
47:03wrong. Uh at least until this point now
47:06the Fed is becoming much more tricky. So
47:08maybe it's going to happen of the next
47:10meeting very much possible but until
47:12this point it it hasn't happened. and uh
47:15in September 2024. This was the like
47:18maybe at least one of the most tricky
47:22tricky
47:23uh Fed decisions
47:26uh until this point when Fed has cut by
47:2950 basis points. So usually in uh all
47:34the other most in all the other
47:36instances I remember they moved the
47:37market by 25 basis points and there they
47:40cut 50
47:41>> and uh and yeah and I was very sure even
47:43though the market pricing was almost
47:4550/50 I was very sure that this is going
47:48to happen and uh and yeah and was was
47:51right on that trade. So that's maybe one
47:53one example where I was kind of kind of
47:56proud that yeah that
47:59it was a good trade. So for this special
48:02episode as you know you were basically a
48:06few points away from becoming a
48:08grandmaster in chess. When was that? It
48:11was probably some 10 12 years ago.
48:15>> I wouldn't wouldn't characterize it. I I
48:17was few few rating points like rating
48:21yeah rating wise rating point wise I was
48:23maybe not so far from the level but you
48:26need to you need to fulfill many
48:28different kind of
48:31>> you know many like points metrics
48:35metrics to becoming great master some of
48:37them are not even related too much to
48:40the chess chess wise so you need to
48:42participate for example in the
48:43tournaments where you have enough
48:45international players and all this
48:47I I never played chess as much to to to
48:52be close to fulfill all these kind of
48:55>> kind of metrics. So I wouldn't say I was
48:56that close to become
48:58>> a grandmother master. Maybe I was maybe
49:01with the chess trends I was
49:03>> not that far in some point still like
49:06you know at this point
49:09>> uh when when you get closer to to some
49:11level it's much harder to to get the
49:14rating. maybe 30 30 rating points is not
49:17that much somewhere that I was on the
49:20lower level
49:22and I I can't say like definitely that I
49:25would able to to cross this another like
49:2830 or 40 points which I was missing like
49:31is is is not much at beginning but it's
49:35huge.
49:35>> It gets increasingly harder and when
49:38particularly when you are getting closer
49:40to your limits it's getting like
49:41extremely hard to get them. So,
49:43>> right.
49:43>> But yeah, like probably still probably
49:46is more probable to know that I I would
49:48get at least at least to rating wise to
49:50the level.
49:52>> Uh I'm not sure I would get the
49:53>> the 2,500. So, well, I I got zero in
49:57Fida ELO. I probably got 800 on
50:00chess.com. Uh so, while we uh bring the
50:03chessboard,
50:04>> but you already beaten me today, so we
50:06tried. We tried. You already beaten me
50:08today. So, like we can rate you at 2,700
50:12somewhere close to Carlson based on that
50:15one game alone at least.
50:17>> But I I'm an amateur and I love chess
50:19and um it's uh I like to sacrifice
50:22pieces sometimes usefully, sometimes
50:24not. Uh so I thought it was a it was a
50:27fun switch of concept to also have a a
50:29chess game in the meantime. And I'm
50:30going to open with E4 and we'll see
50:33where this goes.
50:33>> And as I as I told you, my favorite
50:35defense is Scandinavian. So like we we
50:38going to play Scandinavian defense again
50:40and again and again.
50:40>> Oh my god, I'm going to lose. We know
50:42I'm going to lose.
50:43>> This is very confusing for you.
50:44>> Yep. But um
50:46>> now I'm going to play very unpleasant
50:48move actually for you.
50:49>> Yeah, I can see that.
50:50>> Uh
50:50>> I play I play different now. You're not
50:52going to be kind.
50:53>> No, I'm not now I'm not going to be kind
50:55and play this move like just to to just
50:58exist on the or play the the proper
51:01Scandinavian with you.
51:02>> Okay.
51:05Do you think IQ plays a role in chess
51:09and in trading?
51:10>> Of course, it plays some role. I think
51:12in more or less everything plays some
51:13role, but maybe
51:16other things play a role too. So it's
51:19like yeah, it's uh is important but uh
51:22like you know how as they say hard work
51:25beats talent if talent doesn't work
51:28enough. So
51:29>> so that's that's what it is with
51:32everything. And uh and uh
51:36you know if if you don't get maybe
51:39enough on one sides side of the things
51:42you might get compensated on on the
51:44others. Maybe for example
51:47uh even even if some people who have
51:50like average or a little bit above
51:53average IQ get like are much better on
51:56the interpersonal skills or much better
51:58on the energy stuff of things or much
52:00better on the hardworking. Yeah.
52:03>> Uh so they can do much much better in
52:06life than maybe some some people with
52:09the higher queue. So it's certainly not
52:11the end of the world.
52:14>> That's a check,
52:17>> right?
52:24>> So let's do it with the knight.
52:27>> This is interesting. This is
52:28interesting. I didn't expect this for
52:30sure.
52:31>> Right. But there's a discover check I
52:33need to be careful of here.
52:34>> Now you need to be careful.
52:35>> Yeah.
52:35>> Now you need to be careful. I'm even not
52:37sure like what what Yeah. I don't know
52:39what you need to do.
52:39>> I'm not sure.
52:41>> So,
52:41>> but yeah, I'm probably going to have to
52:43step back.
52:44>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe not the not the
52:47best uh square, but yeah, the logic is
52:50good. The Scandinavian defense is really
52:52unpleasant.
52:53>> It's really tricky. It's really It's so
52:54asymmetrical. I'm used to boring games.
52:57>> 2026 markets.
52:58>> You know, you know where I'm from. I'm
52:59I'm for the Italian game.
53:01>> Yeah. Yeah. I saw they they really did
53:03really well with the Italian.
53:05Scandinavian is the opposite side of
53:07Europe. That's not good for you. I
53:09didn't even I didn't even realize that's
53:11why why so
53:13>> I'm a chill Italian.
53:14>> Didn't didn't realize why why
53:16Scandinavia defense would be would be
53:18unpleasant for the Italian guy.
53:23>> Bloody hell. I cannot even castle now.
53:26>> Yeah. This bishop is the pain in the
53:28ass.
53:31cannot even castle my king.
53:32>> I know but man like for the you know
53:34considering the experience and and
53:36traings and everything like you are
53:38doing amazing amazing
53:40>> I appreciate it
53:40>> amazing stuff in this particular in that
53:43game. Oh no
53:44>> no right
53:45>> no no man no
53:46>> wait wait wait it was just testing if
53:49they will hold you know it was not the
53:50actual move
53:52>> but yeah there's some there are some
53:53tricks here you're about to play
53:56uh H
54:00>> there's the queen right there.
54:01>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I remember there was a
54:02queen there.
54:04>> That's the That's the problem.
54:06>> Then then I removed the defender of just
54:08take it.
54:11>> Right. Right. [ __ ] Right. So this is
54:15the thing. It's more like chess is more
54:16about like spatial awareness, pattern
54:19recognition more than probabilities. You
54:21would say
54:23>> it's everything. I know. And it's like a
54:26it's like Yeah. like uh like you need to
54:28be it depends on the on the which level
54:31you are interested in. So if you just
54:33want to be let's say good club player
54:36maybe you you can be good just in in
54:39some things and don't need to be as good
54:41in the others. But if you like want to
54:43be like top grandmaster you need to be
54:46good in everything. You need to be good
54:48with memory with with spacing with
54:51imagination with logics with calculation
54:54in particular. Yeah, I would say memory
54:56is the most important actually.
54:58>> Memory is the most important one
54:59>> and the shortterm memory and long-term
55:01memory, right? is very really like is is
55:06getting like for you particularly in
55:102026 is
55:12because you really you can you can
55:14memorize a lot of stuff but
55:16>> but you need like you need really great
55:19memory for it
55:21and uh certainly at this point and my
55:23age and everything like is failing me a
55:27little bit.
55:30Well, you always want to exchange queens
55:32with
55:32>> I'm trying to trade, you know, try to
55:34survive and get to the end game, you
55:35know.
55:35>> I don't want to, but you are really good
55:37in exchanging the queens. Like most of
55:38the times when you offered the exchange,
55:40I need to take it. At the last time, the
55:42one I did, the one time I didn't take
55:44it, I was mated. So I
55:46>> Yeah.
55:46>> So I I my learned my lesson that when
55:50Andrea offers the exchange of queen, you
55:52you take it.
55:53>> You might take it.
55:53>> You take it. You take it and and try to
55:57outsmart him in the end game. Yeah,
55:59that's that's what I'm weak as [ __ ]
56:01>> Yeah, that's that's that's what you do.
56:02But you again like you you got to
56:04>> but at least I have to save you know
56:06when you go against the titan you got to
56:07pray with your what you have
56:08>> to kind of acceptable in game
56:12>> with enough pieces. So yeah it's a it's
56:15a serious game
56:17>> serious game and with you
56:18>> you're getting better because the first
56:20time we play it
56:21>> yeah it was
56:22>> this was more it was it was
56:23>> I blundered everything kind of kind of
56:25easier with you but it's getting harder
56:26and harder to beat. That's glad glad to
56:28hear that. But I need to get rid of this
56:30this this bishop here.
56:32>> This is going to be difficult.
56:33>> It's going to be hard cuz I cannot move
56:35my king out of danger for now.
56:38>> But maybe maybe maybe you can do it
56:40somehow.
56:41>> Uh
56:46might uh
56:50might be there. No.
56:55I'm going to bring the rook in the game.
56:57>> Didn't you want to castle long side?
57:00>> I'm I'm going to try and castle.
57:01>> Oh, you want to castle on the other
57:03side?
57:03>> Yeah, because this is too open. I mean,
57:04I'm just giving you the king right
57:06there.
57:06>> Yeah, but like then the queens are not
57:08on the board anymore. So, I wouldn't
57:10consider it to be that dangerous. I'll
57:12let you to do what you need to do.
57:15>> You think chess is
57:16>> whatever you need to do, I'll let you to
57:17do.
57:18>> I'll try.
57:18>> It's not so easy to remove that knight.
57:20Yeah. No,
57:21>> I think the castle alongside was the was
57:23the right move. It was the only one,
57:24right?
57:25>> How do you
57:26>> not the not the not the only one, but
57:28yeah, you would connect your rooks, you
57:29know, and you could play with the other
57:30rooks now and would be easier for you to
57:34to to play.
57:35>> It's a little bit more more difficult.
57:39>> Yeah, I'm pretty stuck.
57:41>> It's It's a little bit hard to unpack
57:44your pieces.
57:46>> Yeah,
57:47I got a throwback somehow. Maybe.
57:53No, maybe that one. But that's Do you
57:54want my knight connected to the
57:56sacrifice with the sacrifice of another
57:58pawn,
57:59>> right?
57:59>> Which you are going to miss badly.
58:02>> I'm going to miss that one, right?
58:05>> Okay. I'm going to be nice to you and
58:08let you unpack your pieces, but take
58:10another pawn for it.
58:13I'm a real pawn grabber. You're a pawn.
58:16Yeah. Grinding. Grinding guy.
58:18>> If there's a scalp, if there's a small
58:20scalp, you'll take it.
58:21>> Yeah. Yeah.
58:22Yeah, I am I'm going to be just a real
58:25kind of Yeah. green person with you. I
58:28just I just exchange everything.
58:30>> Yeah. Now now that I've got no pawns,
58:32it's the best way, right?
58:33>> Now you you have no pawns and we just
58:36>> we just leave you pawnless and
58:40>> you just play with the pawns. Yeah. You
58:41You're going to
58:42>> Yeah, I have to take it.
58:43>> You're going to leave me to to execute
58:45my plan. Oh my god.
58:46>> My my pawn plan.
58:48>> Now we're going to see my endame skills.
58:50>> Okay, that was hard. or lack of I really
58:52hope I would I would beat Magnus Carlson
58:55in from this position.
58:56>> I really hope so because otherwise I
58:59probably would stop OJS or something all
59:01together. I would certainly need to stop
59:03this beat him in this
59:04>> I'm the worst.
59:05>> Yeah, hopefully hopefully it's not
59:10possible to save this.
59:11>> Yeah, it's not possible to save this
59:14>> this position anymore. Okay, let's let's
59:16make it little bit a little bit more
59:18interesting.
59:20Let's play like this. Maybe that's a
59:22mistake. Actually, now I'm thinking
59:25might be a mistake. But let's Hey, let's
59:27>> I'm not going to take it. I'm not I'm
59:28not going to take it. I can't unless I
59:31do something like this.
59:32>> Yeah. Yeah. I'm saying you're getting
59:34better. You you spotted the tactics, you
59:36know.
59:39>> What's it like?
59:39>> Yeah. But I'm still down three pawns.
59:42So,
59:42>> no, no, no. I can I can just go here.
59:44It's not a problem. But I Let's make it
59:45more interesting. Second
59:49>> still still should be enough pawns.
59:51>> Really
59:51>> should be enough pawns.
59:53>> Uh thank you sir.
59:54>> Enough pawns I guess.
59:56>> Still still enough.
59:58>> Still I think I will beat Magnus Carson
1:00:00from this place.
1:00:01>> Oh my god.
1:00:04>> No really advanced like everything you
1:00:06know everything.
1:00:08Maybe I'm too optimistic that I would
1:00:10beat M Magnus Carson but I hope so.
1:00:14This is very easy to put. Now, now Andre
1:00:18is going to show me that I'm not going
1:00:20to even beat Andre in this position.
1:00:21That would be that would be
1:00:24>> Yeah. See, now I'm starting to lose the
1:00:26pose, right? Why Why did I go there
1:00:29[ __ ] Like,
1:00:30>> but but you're queening in like two
1:00:32moves.
1:00:34>> Nice game.
1:00:34>> Good game. Good game.
1:00:36>> Why it's still the end game again?
1:00:37>> Yeah.
1:00:39>> Lucky winner.
1:00:42>> Okay, this was fun. This was fun. I am
1:00:45saying you are getting much much better
1:00:47every game. You see I hope
1:00:48>> is is obvious that you are a kind of
1:00:52learning guru you know there was there
1:00:54was one kind I think there was one guy
1:00:57who like who was the the learning kind
1:00:59of prodigy or something and he was
1:01:01learning all this stuff and and he
1:01:03didn't know how to play chess but in one
1:01:05month he wanted to to to start playing
1:01:08it on the level that he could play with
1:01:10Magnus Carson you know was that's very
1:01:12ambitious was it was kind of a joke
1:01:14because like
1:01:15>> it's like learning to trade in
1:01:17Magdus had to had to praise him to for
1:01:22the for that he for the fact that he
1:01:25lasted like some some 15 moves but but
1:01:28like yeah like that was his ambition. So
1:01:31so I'm seeing you you learning prodigy
1:01:34as well.
1:01:34>> You think it's easier to learn how to ch
1:01:36how to play chess or trade to get in the
1:01:38top 1%.
1:01:41>> Hard to say. It's not so not not such an
1:01:43easy question. I'm not so sure actually
1:01:47maybe
1:01:48>> maybe like no like chess is yeah like 1%
1:01:51of what 1% of all population or 1% of
1:01:55you know all people who tried it is a
1:01:57bit a bit not so easy to define
1:01:59>> but yeah like uh I don't know maybe
1:02:03maybe I don't know try to say
1:02:05>> yeah it was a more open-ended question
1:02:07>> really hard to say it's yeah it depends
1:02:10on on definition you know you could
1:02:11define it in many different ways
1:02:13>> definitely
1:02:14>> but do you is the same pressure levels
1:02:17or or what do you think is the because
1:02:19you've you've competed in both the world
1:02:23trading championship and also in some
1:02:25chess championships. Which one would you
1:02:27say you felt more pressure
1:02:29psychologically?
1:02:30>> I would say
1:02:33uh if you play chess the right way and
1:02:36you trade the right way,
1:02:41you feel much more much more stress in
1:02:43chess. But
1:02:45>> if you start making life harder for
1:02:48yourself in trading, then it can be the
1:02:51other way around. Like mostly when you
1:02:53feel the most stress in trading is when
1:02:56you you create the hard situations for
1:02:58yourself. That's that's the most what
1:03:01>> most stress you feel like you do some
1:03:04stupid stuff and like then then you feel
1:03:05a lot of stress. Otherwise, like, you
1:03:07know, it's it's possible to to at least
1:03:10at least until this point probably is
1:03:12still possible to to trade in a
1:03:15relatively not so stressful way. But
1:03:18yeah, let's see how how it's going to be
1:03:20going forward because playing chess in
1:03:22not stressful way is not certainly not
1:03:25possible,
1:03:25>> right? you're playing against other
1:03:28people who are just, you know, if you if
1:03:30you play with the oppo opponents who at
1:03:33least on your level like it's going to
1:03:35be extremely stressful.
1:03:37>> Yeah. And AI is going to is going to win
1:03:40in both in chess and in trading.
1:03:43>> Yeah. Like
1:03:46uh you know in both you still can play
1:03:50against other people. So basically
1:03:53what I think what I think in in trading
1:03:56could happen that obviously AI kills
1:03:58trading for for most of the people but
1:04:01this is uh uh is for you in many cases
1:04:05is enough to be still like uh better
1:04:08than everybody else every human being
1:04:10who who trades you don't need
1:04:14necessarily to be like better than AI
1:04:16which was it was a battle for you but
1:04:18like
1:04:21you can basically do similar stuff to
1:04:24what AI is doing and then you beat
1:04:27basically most most humans in the planet
1:04:30at least.
1:04:31>> Yeah. And I'm sure this was a very
1:04:33insightful conversation for our viewers.
1:04:34Thank you very much for dedicating your
1:04:36time
1:04:37>> and uh we'll see you in the master
1:04:39class. I mean the the viewers will see
1:04:41you in the master class and thank you
1:04:42very much.
1:04:43>> Great stuff. Thanks a lot, Andrea.

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