Character Popularity vs. Card Price + One Piece TCG Market Update — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePieceOfInsight.
- 0:02In today's video, we will be looking at
- 0:04the 12 most popular One Piece
- 0:06characters, or at least what I think are
- 0:08the 12 most popular One Piece
- 0:09characters, to see if we can understand
- 0:11the relationship between character
- 0:12popularity and price. Also, I'm going to
- 0:15be doing a quick market update at the
- 0:17end. So, if you're interested in seeing
- 0:18that, please make sure you stay through
- 0:19the end. So, with that, let's jump right
- 0:21in. So, the first question is, why look
- 0:23at specific characters at all? So, the
- 0:25first thing is, I think it's an
- 0:26opportunity to find undervalued cards.
- 0:28So, if we can see what cards of those
- 0:30characters typically cost, we may be
- 0:33able to use that to compare against
- 0:34other types of cards to see things that
- 0:35might be undervalued.
- 0:37>> [snorts]
- 0:37>> The second thing is that we can use it
- 0:38as a baseline to help predict the value
- 0:40of future cards. So, I included the
- 0:42OP-16 Robin SP here, um, because the
- 0:47question is, when that set comes out,
- 0:49what's it going to cost? And if
- 0:51understanding what Robin SPs typically
- 0:53go for, so that you can evaluate this
- 0:55against that, helps you to save some
- 0:57money and get a better value, I think
- 0:58that's a good argument for understanding
- 1:00the relationship between character and
- 1:02card price. And then finally, this will
- 1:04help us to understand how demand may
- 1:06change as things happen in the manga or
- 1:08the anime, or as new characters are
- 1:10introduced into the live action, or as
- 1:12the game grows, understanding the
- 1:14relationship between character and price
- 1:16can help us to see how prices may change
- 1:18as certain character popularity changes.
- 1:20So, in order to do this, I had to pick
- 1:22what I thought were the 12 most popular
- 1:23characters. There were a little bit of
- 1:24criteria. They had to have at least one
- 1:26SP, one leader, and one alt art card.
- 1:28So, for example, you'll notice Chopper
- 1:30isn't on this list. I do think Chopper
- 1:31is in the top 10, but since Chopper
- 1:32doesn't have an SP, I couldn't do an
- 1:34analysis of him. And so, these are the
- 1:3512 we landed with. If you disagree, hit
- 1:38me up in the comments, and then maybe we
- 1:39can update this at some point with other
- 1:40people that you think should be on the
- 1:42list. Let's start by talking about SPs.
- 1:44I don't think this is going to shock
- 1:45anybody, but the top six
- 1:48characters for SPs are Nami, Boa, Robin,
- 1:51Zoro, Luffy, and maybe a little bit of a
- 1:54surprise, Vivi.
- 1:56Vivi's inclusion here is really just
- 1:57about EBO3 being expensive. And actually
- 2:00a lot of these are about EBO3 being
- 2:02expensive because Nami, Boa, and Robin
- 2:04all have SPs in EBO3. So, I don't think
- 2:08these are shocking. It is interesting to
- 2:09see that the average SP of Nami
- 2:12is the highest above Boa. I also thought
- 2:14it was interesting that Zoro's average
- 2:16SP is more expensive than Luffy's. So,
- 2:18let's talk about the bottom six. So,
- 2:20here we have Ace, Uta, Shanks, Newgate,
- 2:24Law, and Sanji. I think the biggest
- 2:26surprise for me here is Sanji being
- 2:28last. You know, if you look at character
- 2:30popularity polls, Sanji is often in the
- 2:33top five and sometimes even in the top
- 2:35three of most popular One Piece
- 2:36characters, and yet he's 12th on this
- 2:38list. I think part of the explanation is
- 2:40that the only SPs we've gotten for Sanji
- 2:42have been less desirable sets like
- 2:45OP-10. And so, at some point I think we
- 2:47will get like a really awesome SP of
- 2:49Sanji that will go for more money. But,
- 2:51for now at least collectors seem to be
- 2:52suggesting that Sanji is not their
- 2:54favorite. Uta being in here at number
- 2:56eight again is largely about EBO3. I
- 2:59expect she'll be further down the list
- 3:01as she gets more. Another thing that's
- 3:03interesting here is I'm surprised how
- 3:05cheap a lot of Law's SPs are. Law has
- 3:08gotten some good quality SPs and is a
- 3:10very popular character. You know, in
- 3:12some of the character polls again, he is
- 3:14often in the top 10 if not even on sort
- 3:16of the outskirts of the top five. And
- 3:18yet his SPs seem to be relatively low in
- 3:21value. So, maybe there's some potential
- 3:22value there. So, now let's talk about
- 3:24leaders. So, you'll notice that the
- 3:25rankings for leaders are super different
- 3:27than the rankings for SPs. Now, this is
- 3:30primarily because OP-01 leaders we had a
- 3:33Zoro and we had a Luffy and those were
- 3:36like the main popular characters that we
- 3:38got leaders of in OP-01. And because
- 3:41those leaders are so expensive, that
- 3:42pulls up their average. The other thing
- 3:44to note here is that there's actually
- 3:45only two Zoro leader cards, which means
- 3:48that even though the other one is not
- 3:50that expensive, the OP-01 leader is
- 3:52pulling that weight up a lot. Luffy's in
- 3:54second here because he has so many
- 3:56leader cards. Even though the OP-01
- 3:58Luffy is the most expensive leader card
- 4:00you can pull out of a box, he's still in
- 4:02second here because he has so many other
- 4:03leader cards that frankly aren't that
- 4:05expensive. As we talked about in our
- 4:06previous video, leaders from OP-01 and
- 4:08OP-02 were disproportionately expensive
- 4:11because there were no SPs in the set.
- 4:13And so that's carrying a lot of leaders
- 4:14in this category like Law and like
- 4:16Newgate. What stands out to me here is
- 4:18Nami who is the only one here who did
- 4:21not have a leader in OP-01 or OP-02, and
- 4:23yet she's still fourth on this list. Her
- 4:25OP-03 leader is 200 and change dollars,
- 4:28and even her OP-01 leader is not super
- 4:31cheap. So, I think even though she's
- 4:33ranked fourth here given the
- 4:34circumstances, I think we're seeing Nami
- 4:36carry through as probably the most
- 4:38popular character that we've looked at
- 4:40based on the data we've seen so far.
- 4:42Now, if we move into the bottom six
- 4:43leaders, probably the two most
- 4:45surprising ones here are Boa and Robin.
- 4:48Given that they were both in the top
- 4:49five for SPs, it's interesting to see
- 4:51them uh in the bottom six. I think part
- 4:54of the reason for this is we just
- 4:55haven't gotten any amazing leaders of
- 4:57them yet. You know, Robin we've only
- 4:59gotten one leader which you can see here
- 5:01on the slide. It's solid. I ranked it
- 5:03relatively highly in the last video that
- 5:05I did, but I do think that there's
- 5:07potential for better Robin leaders out
- 5:08there. And I think that's especially
- 5:10true of Boa. Given how many amazing Boa
- 5:12SPs we've seen, the fact that we haven't
- 5:14really seen a great Boa leader yet I
- 5:16think is holding these prices down. So,
- 5:18I expect that if we're revisiting this
- 5:20like two years from now, we'll see them
- 5:21higher up on this list. Uh but for now
- 5:23at least I think they're being pulled
- 5:24down by sort of a lack of great card
- 5:26quality in the leader category. The
- 5:29other big surprise for me here is Shanks
- 5:30both in that he doesn't have very many
- 5:32leader cards, and also that his OP-09
- 5:34close-up card is only like $29. Given
- 5:37how popular he is in other categories,
- 5:39that seems like an example of a card we
- 5:40didn't talk about in the last video that
- 5:42may also be underrated in the leader
- 5:43category. Moving on to alt arts, I
- 5:46actually think that alt arts may be the
- 5:47best representation of how popular the
- 5:49characters are because there are way
- 5:51more altarts than there are SPs
- 5:54and leaders and therefore it's like less
- 5:57of a small sample size issue. But here
- 5:59we can see our top six are Nami, Zoro,
- 6:02Boa, Luffy, Robin, and Law. And this
- 6:05actually I think tracks really closely
- 6:08with what I would have expected the top
- 6:09six characters to be. Although there are
- 6:11some differences in in how they shake
- 6:13out within the top six. So
- 6:16that sort of says to me that maybe the
- 6:18altar pricing is somewhat representative
- 6:20of how popular these characters are.
- 6:22It's interesting that Nami is so far
- 6:23ahead. Now obviously we have the
- 6:25treasure rare Nami here that's pulling
- 6:26up the average price of her altarts, but
- 6:28we also have the treasure rare Zoro from
- 6:30OP 15 that's pulling up the average
- 6:32price
- 6:33of his altarts and right now those two
- 6:35cards are pretty comparable in price. So
- 6:37it's interesting to see that Zoro's
- 6:39average cards are still so far below
- 6:41Nami's. I think Nami just has more
- 6:43altarts that are in like a medium price
- 6:46range. She has very few cards that are
- 6:48very cheap. I think Boa's hurt a little
- 6:50bit here by the fact that she has, you
- 6:52know, a million SPs. That makes I think
- 6:54her altarts less desirable whereas some
- 6:56of the other characters only have like
- 6:57two SPs. You're more likely to buy some
- 7:00of their altarts just to get more cards
- 7:02of them. Luffy has so many altar cards
- 7:06and that leads to him having a
- 7:07tremendous range in the value of his
- 7:09altar cards. He has some of the most
- 7:11expensive and he also has some of the
- 7:13cheapest of the top 12 characters.
- 7:16Robin, you know, I included Miss All
- 7:17Sunday here as well in this category.
- 7:19Again, she doesn't have that many but
- 7:21most of her tend to be medium priced.
- 7:23And then we have Law who doesn't have
- 7:24the upside of some of the other
- 7:26characters. His treasure rare is only
- 7:27like $80,
- 7:29but he also doesn't have a bunch that
- 7:30are like super super cheap. So, you
- 7:32know, most of his seem to be sort of in
- 7:33the middle which I think is helping him
- 7:35to be in the top six here. Moving on to
- 7:37the bottom six alts, the first thing
- 7:38you'll notice here is that all of them
- 7:40are pretty close in price range, except
- 7:42for Uta,
- 7:43>> [laughter]
- 7:44>> which I guess it's not as popular as the
- 7:46One Piece TCG seems to think that she
- 7:48is. I've said before, it's fascinating
- 7:50to me that Uta gets so much love, and
- 7:52yet Robin and Chopper and some other
- 7:54really popular characters
- 7:56don't, but maybe they're trying to push
- 7:57the One Piece Film Red, which I
- 7:59personally like, so you know, whatever.
- 8:02So, our bottom six are Ace, Vivi,
- 8:04Shanks, Newgate, and Sanji, and then
- 8:06Uta. One that stands out to me here is
- 8:09Vivi. What's interesting about Vivi is
- 8:10she doesn't have that many alt arts, um
- 8:13but like all of her alt arts are almost
- 8:15identical in price, which says to me
- 8:16that maybe there's like a collector
- 8:19floor for her, that she has some
- 8:21passionate fans, and they don't have to
- 8:23pay a lot because there's not a ton of
- 8:24them, but they feel pretty seriously
- 8:25about her. It's also possible that it's
- 8:27entirely random. The other thing that
- 8:29kind of surprises me here is Sanji. You
- 8:30know, as I mentioned before, I expect
- 8:32him to be higher on this list, but it
- 8:33seems he's just not as popular as I
- 8:34would have expected. So, to come up with
- 8:36an overall ranking, I took the rank for
- 8:39every single character in every single
- 8:41category, SPs, leaders, and alts. I
- 8:43added them up, I divided them by three,
- 8:45and that gave us an average position of
- 8:47each character across all three
- 8:49categories. And then based on that, we
- 8:50were able to rank them. So, number one
- 8:52was Nami, who had an average of second
- 8:54place across all three categories. She
- 8:57was, you know, clearly the most popular.
- 9:00She was first in SPs, she was first in
- 9:03alts, and I believe she was fourth in
- 9:05leaders despite only having two leaders.
- 9:07I feel pretty confident in saying at
- 9:08this point that she right now is the
- 9:10most popular character in the One Piece
- 9:12TCG in terms of value for her cards. In
- 9:15second place, we had Zoro, who was
- 9:16pretty close behind actually at only
- 9:182.3. He did very well in each of the
- 9:21categories as well, although because he
- 9:23was being pulled up in the leader
- 9:25category, and that was his best score by
- 9:26the fact that he had an OP01 leader, I
- 9:28still think there's a little bit more
- 9:29distance between him and Nami, but right
- 9:31now he appears to be one of the most
- 9:33consistent characters in terms of
- 9:35popularity.
- 9:36In third place, we had Luffy with an
- 9:39average of 3.7, so between third and
- 9:41fourth place in each category. The issue
- 9:44with Luffy is he has so many cards. And
- 9:46so that means that while he's going to
- 9:47have some cards that are really, really
- 9:49exciting, it also means that he's going
- 9:50to have some cards that are less
- 9:51exciting that are going to pull it down.
- 9:53The other thing, and I think this is a
- 9:55really important takeaway from this, is
- 9:57because Luffy has more cards, it seems
- 9:59to be pulling down the value of his
- 10:01cards generally. You know, the fact that
- 10:03Zoro only has three SPs, I think is
- 10:05helping the value of his SPs. The same
- 10:08thing with Nami. You know, Luffy has
- 10:11more SPs, he has more leader cards, he
- 10:13has more alt arts. And so the fact that
- 10:14there are more Luffy cards to own, I
- 10:16think fundamentally lowers the demand
- 10:18for any specific card and lowers the
- 10:20cost of those cards. Next up we have Boa
- 10:23with an average of four, so very close
- 10:25to the Luffy card. She continues to be
- 10:27very popular across all categories, um
- 10:30but I think my one takeaway from Boa is
- 10:32that she is maybe not as popular as some
- 10:34of the other characters with the general
- 10:36population as shown by her lower alt art
- 10:38prices, but she seems to have really,
- 10:41really strong demand from her top fans
- 10:44to buy expensive cards. You know, people
- 10:46who spend a lot of money on this game
- 10:48seem to maybe like Boa more than some
- 10:49other characters or at least more than
- 10:51sort of your casual collectors. This
- 10:53makes a lot of sense given that you
- 10:55wouldn't know who she was if you were
- 10:57casual to One Piece as opposed to these
- 10:59other three who are main characters
- 11:00early in the story. Moving on to the 5
- 11:02through 8 category, I don't think it's a
- 11:04huge surprise that Robin here is fifth.
- 11:06You know, again, it would be interesting
- 11:07if Robin had more cards so that we could
- 11:09do more of an apples-to-apples
- 11:10comparison, but based on what we've
- 11:12seen, she had an average score of 5.3.
- 11:15Law came in at number six with an
- 11:16average of 6.7. I actually think this is
- 11:19a pretty strong result for Law given
- 11:20that he does actually have a lot of
- 11:22cards in the TCG, so it's less of a
- 11:24small sample size than Robin. I think
- 11:26Ace in seventh place is not shocking
- 11:28with an average rating of 7.7. I think
- 11:31there's like a clear top five
- 11:32characters, and then I think either Law
- 11:34or Ace is probably the start of like the
- 11:36second tier. Then coming in at number
- 11:37eight was Vivi, which I found a little
- 11:39bit surprising. She doesn't have that
- 11:42many cards in the game, and she's not
- 11:44what I would have thought of one of like
- 11:45the most popular characters, but the
- 11:47cards that she actually does have are
- 11:48all kind of reasonably expensive. You
- 11:50know, obviously, she has an EBO3 SP.
- 11:53It's not the most expensive or one of
- 11:55the most expensive EBO3 SPs, but given
- 11:57that all of those are expensive, it's
- 11:59pretty expensive. But also her OP04
- 12:01leader card is a really iconic scene,
- 12:03and that is over $100. That is actually
- 12:06one of the most expensive leader cards
- 12:07that was printed in a set that also had
- 12:09SPs. So, I think that bodes well for
- 12:12her. And then her alt arts all have seem
- 12:14to have a price floor of around $25, um
- 12:17which she probably has the highest price
- 12:19floor of any of the characters that we
- 12:20looked at, which I thought was really,
- 12:22really interesting. So, a surprisingly
- 12:24strong showing for Vivi here, and maybe
- 12:26that means that she's a character to
- 12:27watch out for in the future. It'll be
- 12:29really interesting to see if we ever get
- 12:30like a Vivi manga or like some other
- 12:33amazing Vivi SP. Moving on to our bottom
- 12:36four characters, we have Newgate here
- 12:37with an average of eighth place.
- 12:40Then we have Sanji with an average of
- 12:41between ninth and 10th place. We have
- 12:43Shanks with an average of 10th place. We
- 12:45have Uta with an average of 10th place.
- 12:47Now, I want to say here that I think Uta
- 12:48is the clear bottom. Uta seems to be
- 12:50benefiting from the fact that the two
- 12:52SPs that she has were in very expensive
- 12:54sets. So, you have the EBO3 one, and you
- 12:56also have the OP05 one. So, that's
- 12:58pulling up her overall values. In
- 13:00general, she doesn't seem like a
- 13:01character that I would want to pay a lot
- 13:03for, um but that's just sort of my
- 13:04takeaway. I'm a little bit surprised
- 13:06here that Sanji and Shanks uh scored so
- 13:09low, but I think they're popular
- 13:11characters. Shanks in particular has
- 13:13some really good SPs. Uh I think he has
- 13:16a good leader card. He has some good alt
- 13:18art. So, I'm kind of surprised to see
- 13:19him so low on this list because he seems
- 13:22to have good card quality. I think Sanji
- 13:24may be suffering a little bit from card
- 13:26quality. You know, his two best cards
- 13:28are probably his OP02 leader card, which
- 13:30you can see here, and his PRB01 leader
- 13:32card. But other than that, the SPs that
- 13:34he's gotten are like kind of meh. I
- 13:36mean, the Royal Blood one is kind of
- 13:37nice, but it's not very expensive. So,
- 13:40it will be interesting to see if Sanji
- 13:41gets an SP sort of like a bubble Zoro,
- 13:44how much that goes for, if that would
- 13:45pull him up this list. But I'm kind of
- 13:47surprised that he's so far down the
- 13:48list.
- 13:49Uh and then Newgate, you know, I think
- 13:51Newgate is surprisingly popular. He was
- 13:53pretty consistent across the different
- 13:55categories. Now, there was a relatively
- 13:56small sample size here. You know, he
- 13:58only has a couple
- 14:00uh of SPs. He only has one leader. Um
- 14:02but relatively strong pricing across all
- 14:05of his different categories. I think
- 14:06part of it is just he looks really
- 14:07iconic, and so that makes for some
- 14:09cool-looking cards. So, we've recently
- 14:10talked about what I consider to be
- 14:12undervalued SPs and undervalued leaders
- 14:14in previous videos. So, I wanted to talk
- 14:15a little bit about the alt arts. And so,
- 14:18what I did here was I took the average
- 14:19price of the top four characters' alt
- 14:21arts, uh and then compared them against
- 14:24some of their lower-priced alt arts to
- 14:26see if we think that there might be some
- 14:27value there. So, the average Nami alt
- 14:30art is $86, and yet this alt art from
- 14:32OP09 is only $11. This is not my
- 14:36favorite Nami alt art, so I understand
- 14:38why it's one of her lower-priced ones,
- 14:41if not the lowest.
- 14:43But at around 1/8 the price, I do think
- 14:46it's probably a little bit low. You
- 14:48know, I think if you're a Nami fan and
- 14:50you're looking for something affordable,
- 14:52I do think that this is a great choice
- 14:53because given how much her cards
- 14:54typically cost, this is quite cheap.
- 14:57Next, we have Zoro with an average card
- 14:59cost of $64. I think Zoro's are skewed a
- 15:01little bit more by how expensive his
- 15:03most recent treasure rare is.
- 15:05Um but this OP14 one is only $9. Again,
- 15:09this is not my favorite Zoro. I actually
- 15:11think this might be my least favorite
- 15:12Zoro. So, I'm not going to say that I
- 15:14think this is like a screaming buy at
- 15:16$9. Um
- 15:17but I think in terms of cards in a box,
- 15:20$9 is pretty inexpensive for a Zoro card
- 15:24that is frankly not that common. You
- 15:26know, I've said before that in general,
- 15:28these alt arts are a little bit less
- 15:30than one per case. And so, while they're
- 15:32not going to be as rare as a leader or
- 15:34as an SP or as a manga, I think they're
- 15:36less common than most people think they
- 15:37are. And so, for only $9, I feel like
- 15:40it's not a bad price. This Boa, I
- 15:42actually think is a really good value
- 15:44from OP13. There's going to be more of
- 15:46these out there because OP13 seems like
- 15:48it had a very large print run. But the
- 15:50average Boa alt art is $60, and this
- 15:52one's only $22. And to be honest, I
- 15:54don't know that I could tell you much of
- 15:56a difference between the more expensive
- 15:58Boa cards and the least expensive Boa
- 16:00cards. Obviously, it's going to depend
- 16:01on your taste, but I think this is a
- 16:03pretty good piece of art for only $22 if
- 16:06you're a Boa fan.
- 16:07And then finally, we have Luffy with an
- 16:09average alt art price of $57.
- 16:12We have this one from OP06 that's only
- 16:14$10. I actually think this art is really
- 16:16fun. It's like a different perspective
- 16:19on Luffy, and so I think that makes it
- 16:21interesting. So, I do think at $10, I
- 16:23think this is a pretty good value,
- 16:24right? I don't think this is going to be
- 16:26like a $50 card or $100 card. But like,
- 16:29why is this $10 when other similar cards
- 16:31are 20, 25, $30? That's the question I
- 16:35feel like I can't answer, right? So,
- 16:36that's why I think that this is
- 16:37undervalued. So, if you like these
- 16:39characters, I think these are some
- 16:40pretty affordable pickups
- 16:42that I think could justifiably be more
- 16:44expensive than they currently are. The
- 16:45last thing to say on this topic before
- 16:46we jump into our market update is, as I
- 16:48mentioned, they are currently doing the
- 16:50One Piece World Top 100. This is the
- 16:52second time they've done it to sort of
- 16:54assess character popularity.
- 16:56I submitted my vote for Jinbe. So, I
- 16:59encourage you to go submit your vote for
- 17:00your favorite character if you haven't
- 17:02already done that. It's really, really
- 17:04fascinating to see who like the 100 most
- 17:07popular characters are and how it varies
- 17:09across regions. I was very, very
- 17:11surprised. I don't want to give spoilers
- 17:12if you're going to go look at it, but I
- 17:14did not know Carrot was so popular in
- 17:16lots of places in the world, so that was
- 17:18really, really interesting. So, let's
- 17:19talk about our SP 500 index. Over the
- 17:22last 2 weeks, we have seen prices fall
- 17:242.1%. But, that is actually less
- 17:27representative of what the market seems
- 17:29to be doing
- 17:30than you would typically expect from
- 17:32this metric. And the reason is because
- 17:34you had cards moving in completely
- 17:36different directions sending different
- 17:38signals. So, for example, the top four
- 17:41cards of this week, we had two Boas, the
- 17:43Opio 4 and the Opio 9 Boa, and two
- 17:45Luffy's, the Opio 9 wanted poster and
- 17:48the Gum-Gum Giant from PRB 02. They were
- 17:50up a total of 13% this week. Meanwhile,
- 17:54you had eight cards in the bottom. The
- 17:56four worst performing cards were
- 17:58actually the Nami, the Robin from EB 03,
- 18:02and then the Boa from OP 14 and from OP
- 18:0415. Those cards were down 9% over the
- 18:07week with the rest of the cards sort of
- 18:09remaining in the middle. So, I think
- 18:11what we're seeing in the SPs right now,
- 18:13and actually in the market in general,
- 18:15is not a market consensus
- 18:18in terms of movement like we had seen,
- 18:20you know, about 6 months ago when we had
- 18:22the initial boom where just everything
- 18:23was going up. I think right now we're
- 18:25seeing a little bit of a speculators
- 18:26market where you have some people who
- 18:28are pushing really, really hard and
- 18:29spending a lot of money to pick things
- 18:31up that they think are undervalued,
- 18:33but that's isolated to specific cards
- 18:36and specific products. I also think, and
- 18:38we'll see this when we talk about the
- 18:39booster boxes, that people may be
- 18:41selling some of their cards to free up
- 18:43capital to be able to buy other assets
- 18:45that they would rather have. And I think
- 18:47that's what we're seeing here in the
- 18:48booster box market. So, actually all of
- 18:51the boxes were up this week except for
- 18:53the blue bottoms, which were down 16%,
- 18:56which for a box that had been trading
- 18:58over $5,000 is a large percentage to be
- 19:01down over a 2-week period. I will caveat
- 19:04that, you know, I was looking at like a
- 19:06couple sales, and then maybe if we took
- 19:08all of the sales over that period, we
- 19:09would get a slightly different picture,
- 19:11but based on the handful of sales over
- 19:13the last few days that I saw, this
- 19:15seemed to be down quite a bit. That's in
- 19:17contrast to EBO2, which we've been
- 19:19talking about a lot and I think has
- 19:21finally caught fire and is getting
- 19:23closer to what its fair value should be.
- 19:26That's up 39% over the last 2 weeks, so
- 19:29if you were looking to buy that at a
- 19:31bargain price, I think the window on
- 19:32that has probably closed. I think it
- 19:34still has a lot of upside, but obviously
- 19:36it's gone up a lot, so it's no longer,
- 19:38you know, the screaming bargain I
- 19:39thought it was. So, because the blue
- 19:40bottoms were down so much, the market
- 19:43for all the booster boxes was actually
- 19:45down 1.7%. Just being dragged down by
- 19:47how much the blue bottoms have fallen.
- 19:49But, if you remove the blue bottoms and
- 19:51the EBO2 from the equation, the rest of
- 19:53the booster boxes are up 5% over the
- 19:55last 2 weeks. So, I think in general the
- 19:57market for booster boxes is doing well.
- 20:00The big question is, why is OP-01 blue
- 20:02bottoms falling so far? And I think part
- 20:05of the answer is is that, as I said, I
- 20:07think we're moving into a speculators
- 20:09market and I think that folks who are
- 20:11holding blue bottoms have seen the
- 20:13prices have not appreciated as quickly
- 20:15as assets in other categories have. And
- 20:18so, I think for that reason, some of
- 20:19them at least are likely taking some
- 20:20profits, freeing up some capital to be
- 20:23able to buy other things that are higher
- 20:24performing. Does that mean that it's
- 20:26like a great time to buy blue bottoms? I
- 20:29don't know. I'll be honest, the blue
- 20:30bottoms are one of the hardest things
- 20:32for me to price
- 20:33because so much of their price is based
- 20:35on the idea that this box came first and
- 20:38that the blue bottoms are like the first
- 20:40edition and all those things. So, in a
- 20:43future video we're going to be looking
- 20:44at expected value of blue bottoms, white
- 20:46bottoms and comparing them, so maybe
- 20:48we'll be able to have a better
- 20:49conversation once we've looked at that.
- 20:51As always, this isn't financial advice,
- 20:52but I recommend that everybody trade a
- 20:54little bit carefully. Make sure you
- 20:56don't FOMO. As I said, I think we're in
- 20:58a speculators market, you're going to
- 20:59see prices shoot up really quickly.
- 21:01There's going to be a lot of buyouts.
- 21:03This is speculative hype. Some of these
- 21:05things may end up being real, but a lot
- 21:08of them won't. And so, make sure that
- 21:10you're not just following the herd.
- 21:12That's going to be a recipe for not
- 21:13enjoying your collecting experience. So,
- 21:15make sure you're being thoughtful out
- 21:16there. And if you see a massive price
- 21:18change over a short period of time, I
- 21:19want you to think critically about
- 21:20whether this is actually the right time
- 21:21to buy that card or whether we're just
- 21:23getting caught up in the hype around it.
- 21:25That's all I have for today. As always,
- 21:27I hope you found this helpful. If you
- 21:28did, please like, comment, and subscribe
- 21:32if you haven't already. We also have our
- 21:34TCGPlayer affiliate link and our eBay
- 21:36store in the description of this video.
- 21:38If you like any of the cards that you
- 21:39saw here and you plan to pick them up,
- 21:40it would be super helpful for us if you
- 21:42use that link. We get a small commission
- 21:44and it doesn't cost you anything. Also,
- 21:45if you're just looking for the cards
- 21:46from this video in general, you can find
- 21:48them on the eBay storefront. No
- 21:50obligation to buy, but they'll be there
- 21:52if you're trying to figure out which
- 21:53cards I was talking about. So, with
- 21:54that, as always, I appreciate your time
- 21:57and I will see you in the next one.
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