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Character Popularity vs. Card Price + One Piece TCG Market Update — Transcript

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  1. 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePieceOfInsight.
  2. 0:02In today's video, we will be looking at
  3. 0:04the 12 most popular One Piece
  4. 0:06characters, or at least what I think are
  5. 0:08the 12 most popular One Piece
  6. 0:09characters, to see if we can understand
  7. 0:11the relationship between character
  8. 0:12popularity and price. Also, I'm going to
  9. 0:15be doing a quick market update at the
  10. 0:17end. So, if you're interested in seeing
  11. 0:18that, please make sure you stay through
  12. 0:19the end. So, with that, let's jump right
  13. 0:21in. So, the first question is, why look
  14. 0:23at specific characters at all? So, the
  15. 0:25first thing is, I think it's an
  16. 0:26opportunity to find undervalued cards.
  17. 0:28So, if we can see what cards of those
  18. 0:30characters typically cost, we may be
  19. 0:33able to use that to compare against
  20. 0:34other types of cards to see things that
  21. 0:35might be undervalued.
  22. 0:37>> [snorts]
  23. 0:37>> The second thing is that we can use it
  24. 0:38as a baseline to help predict the value
  25. 0:40of future cards. So, I included the
  26. 0:42OP-16 Robin SP here, um, because the
  27. 0:47question is, when that set comes out,
  28. 0:49what's it going to cost? And if
  29. 0:51understanding what Robin SPs typically
  30. 0:53go for, so that you can evaluate this
  31. 0:55against that, helps you to save some
  32. 0:57money and get a better value, I think
  33. 0:58that's a good argument for understanding
  34. 1:00the relationship between character and
  35. 1:02card price. And then finally, this will
  36. 1:04help us to understand how demand may
  37. 1:06change as things happen in the manga or
  38. 1:08the anime, or as new characters are
  39. 1:10introduced into the live action, or as
  40. 1:12the game grows, understanding the
  41. 1:14relationship between character and price
  42. 1:16can help us to see how prices may change
  43. 1:18as certain character popularity changes.
  44. 1:20So, in order to do this, I had to pick
  45. 1:22what I thought were the 12 most popular
  46. 1:23characters. There were a little bit of
  47. 1:24criteria. They had to have at least one
  48. 1:26SP, one leader, and one alt art card.
  49. 1:28So, for example, you'll notice Chopper
  50. 1:30isn't on this list. I do think Chopper
  51. 1:31is in the top 10, but since Chopper
  52. 1:32doesn't have an SP, I couldn't do an
  53. 1:34analysis of him. And so, these are the
  54. 1:3512 we landed with. If you disagree, hit
  55. 1:38me up in the comments, and then maybe we
  56. 1:39can update this at some point with other
  57. 1:40people that you think should be on the
  58. 1:42list. Let's start by talking about SPs.
  59. 1:44I don't think this is going to shock
  60. 1:45anybody, but the top six
  61. 1:48characters for SPs are Nami, Boa, Robin,
  62. 1:51Zoro, Luffy, and maybe a little bit of a
  63. 1:54surprise, Vivi.
  64. 1:56Vivi's inclusion here is really just
  65. 1:57about EBO3 being expensive. And actually
  66. 2:00a lot of these are about EBO3 being
  67. 2:02expensive because Nami, Boa, and Robin
  68. 2:04all have SPs in EBO3. So, I don't think
  69. 2:08these are shocking. It is interesting to
  70. 2:09see that the average SP of Nami
  71. 2:12is the highest above Boa. I also thought
  72. 2:14it was interesting that Zoro's average
  73. 2:16SP is more expensive than Luffy's. So,
  74. 2:18let's talk about the bottom six. So,
  75. 2:20here we have Ace, Uta, Shanks, Newgate,
  76. 2:24Law, and Sanji. I think the biggest
  77. 2:26surprise for me here is Sanji being
  78. 2:28last. You know, if you look at character
  79. 2:30popularity polls, Sanji is often in the
  80. 2:33top five and sometimes even in the top
  81. 2:35three of most popular One Piece
  82. 2:36characters, and yet he's 12th on this
  83. 2:38list. I think part of the explanation is
  84. 2:40that the only SPs we've gotten for Sanji
  85. 2:42have been less desirable sets like
  86. 2:45OP-10. And so, at some point I think we
  87. 2:47will get like a really awesome SP of
  88. 2:49Sanji that will go for more money. But,
  89. 2:51for now at least collectors seem to be
  90. 2:52suggesting that Sanji is not their
  91. 2:54favorite. Uta being in here at number
  92. 2:56eight again is largely about EBO3. I
  93. 2:59expect she'll be further down the list
  94. 3:01as she gets more. Another thing that's
  95. 3:03interesting here is I'm surprised how
  96. 3:05cheap a lot of Law's SPs are. Law has
  97. 3:08gotten some good quality SPs and is a
  98. 3:10very popular character. You know, in
  99. 3:12some of the character polls again, he is
  100. 3:14often in the top 10 if not even on sort
  101. 3:16of the outskirts of the top five. And
  102. 3:18yet his SPs seem to be relatively low in
  103. 3:21value. So, maybe there's some potential
  104. 3:22value there. So, now let's talk about
  105. 3:24leaders. So, you'll notice that the
  106. 3:25rankings for leaders are super different
  107. 3:27than the rankings for SPs. Now, this is
  108. 3:30primarily because OP-01 leaders we had a
  109. 3:33Zoro and we had a Luffy and those were
  110. 3:36like the main popular characters that we
  111. 3:38got leaders of in OP-01. And because
  112. 3:41those leaders are so expensive, that
  113. 3:42pulls up their average. The other thing
  114. 3:44to note here is that there's actually
  115. 3:45only two Zoro leader cards, which means
  116. 3:48that even though the other one is not
  117. 3:50that expensive, the OP-01 leader is
  118. 3:52pulling that weight up a lot. Luffy's in
  119. 3:54second here because he has so many
  120. 3:56leader cards. Even though the OP-01
  121. 3:58Luffy is the most expensive leader card
  122. 4:00you can pull out of a box, he's still in
  123. 4:02second here because he has so many other
  124. 4:03leader cards that frankly aren't that
  125. 4:05expensive. As we talked about in our
  126. 4:06previous video, leaders from OP-01 and
  127. 4:08OP-02 were disproportionately expensive
  128. 4:11because there were no SPs in the set.
  129. 4:13And so that's carrying a lot of leaders
  130. 4:14in this category like Law and like
  131. 4:16Newgate. What stands out to me here is
  132. 4:18Nami who is the only one here who did
  133. 4:21not have a leader in OP-01 or OP-02, and
  134. 4:23yet she's still fourth on this list. Her
  135. 4:25OP-03 leader is 200 and change dollars,
  136. 4:28and even her OP-01 leader is not super
  137. 4:31cheap. So, I think even though she's
  138. 4:33ranked fourth here given the
  139. 4:34circumstances, I think we're seeing Nami
  140. 4:36carry through as probably the most
  141. 4:38popular character that we've looked at
  142. 4:40based on the data we've seen so far.
  143. 4:42Now, if we move into the bottom six
  144. 4:43leaders, probably the two most
  145. 4:45surprising ones here are Boa and Robin.
  146. 4:48Given that they were both in the top
  147. 4:49five for SPs, it's interesting to see
  148. 4:51them uh in the bottom six. I think part
  149. 4:54of the reason for this is we just
  150. 4:55haven't gotten any amazing leaders of
  151. 4:57them yet. You know, Robin we've only
  152. 4:59gotten one leader which you can see here
  153. 5:01on the slide. It's solid. I ranked it
  154. 5:03relatively highly in the last video that
  155. 5:05I did, but I do think that there's
  156. 5:07potential for better Robin leaders out
  157. 5:08there. And I think that's especially
  158. 5:10true of Boa. Given how many amazing Boa
  159. 5:12SPs we've seen, the fact that we haven't
  160. 5:14really seen a great Boa leader yet I
  161. 5:16think is holding these prices down. So,
  162. 5:18I expect that if we're revisiting this
  163. 5:20like two years from now, we'll see them
  164. 5:21higher up on this list. Uh but for now
  165. 5:23at least I think they're being pulled
  166. 5:24down by sort of a lack of great card
  167. 5:26quality in the leader category. The
  168. 5:29other big surprise for me here is Shanks
  169. 5:30both in that he doesn't have very many
  170. 5:32leader cards, and also that his OP-09
  171. 5:34close-up card is only like $29. Given
  172. 5:37how popular he is in other categories,
  173. 5:39that seems like an example of a card we
  174. 5:40didn't talk about in the last video that
  175. 5:42may also be underrated in the leader
  176. 5:43category. Moving on to alt arts, I
  177. 5:46actually think that alt arts may be the
  178. 5:47best representation of how popular the
  179. 5:49characters are because there are way
  180. 5:51more altarts than there are SPs
  181. 5:54and leaders and therefore it's like less
  182. 5:57of a small sample size issue. But here
  183. 5:59we can see our top six are Nami, Zoro,
  184. 6:02Boa, Luffy, Robin, and Law. And this
  185. 6:05actually I think tracks really closely
  186. 6:08with what I would have expected the top
  187. 6:09six characters to be. Although there are
  188. 6:11some differences in in how they shake
  189. 6:13out within the top six. So
  190. 6:16that sort of says to me that maybe the
  191. 6:18altar pricing is somewhat representative
  192. 6:20of how popular these characters are.
  193. 6:22It's interesting that Nami is so far
  194. 6:23ahead. Now obviously we have the
  195. 6:25treasure rare Nami here that's pulling
  196. 6:26up the average price of her altarts, but
  197. 6:28we also have the treasure rare Zoro from
  198. 6:30OP 15 that's pulling up the average
  199. 6:32price
  200. 6:33of his altarts and right now those two
  201. 6:35cards are pretty comparable in price. So
  202. 6:37it's interesting to see that Zoro's
  203. 6:39average cards are still so far below
  204. 6:41Nami's. I think Nami just has more
  205. 6:43altarts that are in like a medium price
  206. 6:46range. She has very few cards that are
  207. 6:48very cheap. I think Boa's hurt a little
  208. 6:50bit here by the fact that she has, you
  209. 6:52know, a million SPs. That makes I think
  210. 6:54her altarts less desirable whereas some
  211. 6:56of the other characters only have like
  212. 6:57two SPs. You're more likely to buy some
  213. 7:00of their altarts just to get more cards
  214. 7:02of them. Luffy has so many altar cards
  215. 7:06and that leads to him having a
  216. 7:07tremendous range in the value of his
  217. 7:09altar cards. He has some of the most
  218. 7:11expensive and he also has some of the
  219. 7:13cheapest of the top 12 characters.
  220. 7:16Robin, you know, I included Miss All
  221. 7:17Sunday here as well in this category.
  222. 7:19Again, she doesn't have that many but
  223. 7:21most of her tend to be medium priced.
  224. 7:23And then we have Law who doesn't have
  225. 7:24the upside of some of the other
  226. 7:26characters. His treasure rare is only
  227. 7:27like $80,
  228. 7:29but he also doesn't have a bunch that
  229. 7:30are like super super cheap. So, you
  230. 7:32know, most of his seem to be sort of in
  231. 7:33the middle which I think is helping him
  232. 7:35to be in the top six here. Moving on to
  233. 7:37the bottom six alts, the first thing
  234. 7:38you'll notice here is that all of them
  235. 7:40are pretty close in price range, except
  236. 7:42for Uta,
  237. 7:43>> [laughter]
  238. 7:44>> which I guess it's not as popular as the
  239. 7:46One Piece TCG seems to think that she
  240. 7:48is. I've said before, it's fascinating
  241. 7:50to me that Uta gets so much love, and
  242. 7:52yet Robin and Chopper and some other
  243. 7:54really popular characters
  244. 7:56don't, but maybe they're trying to push
  245. 7:57the One Piece Film Red, which I
  246. 7:59personally like, so you know, whatever.
  247. 8:02So, our bottom six are Ace, Vivi,
  248. 8:04Shanks, Newgate, and Sanji, and then
  249. 8:06Uta. One that stands out to me here is
  250. 8:09Vivi. What's interesting about Vivi is
  251. 8:10she doesn't have that many alt arts, um
  252. 8:13but like all of her alt arts are almost
  253. 8:15identical in price, which says to me
  254. 8:16that maybe there's like a collector
  255. 8:19floor for her, that she has some
  256. 8:21passionate fans, and they don't have to
  257. 8:23pay a lot because there's not a ton of
  258. 8:24them, but they feel pretty seriously
  259. 8:25about her. It's also possible that it's
  260. 8:27entirely random. The other thing that
  261. 8:29kind of surprises me here is Sanji. You
  262. 8:30know, as I mentioned before, I expect
  263. 8:32him to be higher on this list, but it
  264. 8:33seems he's just not as popular as I
  265. 8:34would have expected. So, to come up with
  266. 8:36an overall ranking, I took the rank for
  267. 8:39every single character in every single
  268. 8:41category, SPs, leaders, and alts. I
  269. 8:43added them up, I divided them by three,
  270. 8:45and that gave us an average position of
  271. 8:47each character across all three
  272. 8:49categories. And then based on that, we
  273. 8:50were able to rank them. So, number one
  274. 8:52was Nami, who had an average of second
  275. 8:54place across all three categories. She
  276. 8:57was, you know, clearly the most popular.
  277. 9:00She was first in SPs, she was first in
  278. 9:03alts, and I believe she was fourth in
  279. 9:05leaders despite only having two leaders.
  280. 9:07I feel pretty confident in saying at
  281. 9:08this point that she right now is the
  282. 9:10most popular character in the One Piece
  283. 9:12TCG in terms of value for her cards. In
  284. 9:15second place, we had Zoro, who was
  285. 9:16pretty close behind actually at only
  286. 9:182.3. He did very well in each of the
  287. 9:21categories as well, although because he
  288. 9:23was being pulled up in the leader
  289. 9:25category, and that was his best score by
  290. 9:26the fact that he had an OP01 leader, I
  291. 9:28still think there's a little bit more
  292. 9:29distance between him and Nami, but right
  293. 9:31now he appears to be one of the most
  294. 9:33consistent characters in terms of
  295. 9:35popularity.
  296. 9:36In third place, we had Luffy with an
  297. 9:39average of 3.7, so between third and
  298. 9:41fourth place in each category. The issue
  299. 9:44with Luffy is he has so many cards. And
  300. 9:46so that means that while he's going to
  301. 9:47have some cards that are really, really
  302. 9:49exciting, it also means that he's going
  303. 9:50to have some cards that are less
  304. 9:51exciting that are going to pull it down.
  305. 9:53The other thing, and I think this is a
  306. 9:55really important takeaway from this, is
  307. 9:57because Luffy has more cards, it seems
  308. 9:59to be pulling down the value of his
  309. 10:01cards generally. You know, the fact that
  310. 10:03Zoro only has three SPs, I think is
  311. 10:05helping the value of his SPs. The same
  312. 10:08thing with Nami. You know, Luffy has
  313. 10:11more SPs, he has more leader cards, he
  314. 10:13has more alt arts. And so the fact that
  315. 10:14there are more Luffy cards to own, I
  316. 10:16think fundamentally lowers the demand
  317. 10:18for any specific card and lowers the
  318. 10:20cost of those cards. Next up we have Boa
  319. 10:23with an average of four, so very close
  320. 10:25to the Luffy card. She continues to be
  321. 10:27very popular across all categories, um
  322. 10:30but I think my one takeaway from Boa is
  323. 10:32that she is maybe not as popular as some
  324. 10:34of the other characters with the general
  325. 10:36population as shown by her lower alt art
  326. 10:38prices, but she seems to have really,
  327. 10:41really strong demand from her top fans
  328. 10:44to buy expensive cards. You know, people
  329. 10:46who spend a lot of money on this game
  330. 10:48seem to maybe like Boa more than some
  331. 10:49other characters or at least more than
  332. 10:51sort of your casual collectors. This
  333. 10:53makes a lot of sense given that you
  334. 10:55wouldn't know who she was if you were
  335. 10:57casual to One Piece as opposed to these
  336. 10:59other three who are main characters
  337. 11:00early in the story. Moving on to the 5
  338. 11:02through 8 category, I don't think it's a
  339. 11:04huge surprise that Robin here is fifth.
  340. 11:06You know, again, it would be interesting
  341. 11:07if Robin had more cards so that we could
  342. 11:09do more of an apples-to-apples
  343. 11:10comparison, but based on what we've
  344. 11:12seen, she had an average score of 5.3.
  345. 11:15Law came in at number six with an
  346. 11:16average of 6.7. I actually think this is
  347. 11:19a pretty strong result for Law given
  348. 11:20that he does actually have a lot of
  349. 11:22cards in the TCG, so it's less of a
  350. 11:24small sample size than Robin. I think
  351. 11:26Ace in seventh place is not shocking
  352. 11:28with an average rating of 7.7. I think
  353. 11:31there's like a clear top five
  354. 11:32characters, and then I think either Law
  355. 11:34or Ace is probably the start of like the
  356. 11:36second tier. Then coming in at number
  357. 11:37eight was Vivi, which I found a little
  358. 11:39bit surprising. She doesn't have that
  359. 11:42many cards in the game, and she's not
  360. 11:44what I would have thought of one of like
  361. 11:45the most popular characters, but the
  362. 11:47cards that she actually does have are
  363. 11:48all kind of reasonably expensive. You
  364. 11:50know, obviously, she has an EBO3 SP.
  365. 11:53It's not the most expensive or one of
  366. 11:55the most expensive EBO3 SPs, but given
  367. 11:57that all of those are expensive, it's
  368. 11:59pretty expensive. But also her OP04
  369. 12:01leader card is a really iconic scene,
  370. 12:03and that is over $100. That is actually
  371. 12:06one of the most expensive leader cards
  372. 12:07that was printed in a set that also had
  373. 12:09SPs. So, I think that bodes well for
  374. 12:12her. And then her alt arts all have seem
  375. 12:14to have a price floor of around $25, um
  376. 12:17which she probably has the highest price
  377. 12:19floor of any of the characters that we
  378. 12:20looked at, which I thought was really,
  379. 12:22really interesting. So, a surprisingly
  380. 12:24strong showing for Vivi here, and maybe
  381. 12:26that means that she's a character to
  382. 12:27watch out for in the future. It'll be
  383. 12:29really interesting to see if we ever get
  384. 12:30like a Vivi manga or like some other
  385. 12:33amazing Vivi SP. Moving on to our bottom
  386. 12:36four characters, we have Newgate here
  387. 12:37with an average of eighth place.
  388. 12:40Then we have Sanji with an average of
  389. 12:41between ninth and 10th place. We have
  390. 12:43Shanks with an average of 10th place. We
  391. 12:45have Uta with an average of 10th place.
  392. 12:47Now, I want to say here that I think Uta
  393. 12:48is the clear bottom. Uta seems to be
  394. 12:50benefiting from the fact that the two
  395. 12:52SPs that she has were in very expensive
  396. 12:54sets. So, you have the EBO3 one, and you
  397. 12:56also have the OP05 one. So, that's
  398. 12:58pulling up her overall values. In
  399. 13:00general, she doesn't seem like a
  400. 13:01character that I would want to pay a lot
  401. 13:03for, um but that's just sort of my
  402. 13:04takeaway. I'm a little bit surprised
  403. 13:06here that Sanji and Shanks uh scored so
  404. 13:09low, but I think they're popular
  405. 13:11characters. Shanks in particular has
  406. 13:13some really good SPs. Uh I think he has
  407. 13:16a good leader card. He has some good alt
  408. 13:18art. So, I'm kind of surprised to see
  409. 13:19him so low on this list because he seems
  410. 13:22to have good card quality. I think Sanji
  411. 13:24may be suffering a little bit from card
  412. 13:26quality. You know, his two best cards
  413. 13:28are probably his OP02 leader card, which
  414. 13:30you can see here, and his PRB01 leader
  415. 13:32card. But other than that, the SPs that
  416. 13:34he's gotten are like kind of meh. I
  417. 13:36mean, the Royal Blood one is kind of
  418. 13:37nice, but it's not very expensive. So,
  419. 13:40it will be interesting to see if Sanji
  420. 13:41gets an SP sort of like a bubble Zoro,
  421. 13:44how much that goes for, if that would
  422. 13:45pull him up this list. But I'm kind of
  423. 13:47surprised that he's so far down the
  424. 13:48list.
  425. 13:49Uh and then Newgate, you know, I think
  426. 13:51Newgate is surprisingly popular. He was
  427. 13:53pretty consistent across the different
  428. 13:55categories. Now, there was a relatively
  429. 13:56small sample size here. You know, he
  430. 13:58only has a couple
  431. 14:00uh of SPs. He only has one leader. Um
  432. 14:02but relatively strong pricing across all
  433. 14:05of his different categories. I think
  434. 14:06part of it is just he looks really
  435. 14:07iconic, and so that makes for some
  436. 14:09cool-looking cards. So, we've recently
  437. 14:10talked about what I consider to be
  438. 14:12undervalued SPs and undervalued leaders
  439. 14:14in previous videos. So, I wanted to talk
  440. 14:15a little bit about the alt arts. And so,
  441. 14:18what I did here was I took the average
  442. 14:19price of the top four characters' alt
  443. 14:21arts, uh and then compared them against
  444. 14:24some of their lower-priced alt arts to
  445. 14:26see if we think that there might be some
  446. 14:27value there. So, the average Nami alt
  447. 14:30art is $86, and yet this alt art from
  448. 14:32OP09 is only $11. This is not my
  449. 14:36favorite Nami alt art, so I understand
  450. 14:38why it's one of her lower-priced ones,
  451. 14:41if not the lowest.
  452. 14:43But at around 1/8 the price, I do think
  453. 14:46it's probably a little bit low. You
  454. 14:48know, I think if you're a Nami fan and
  455. 14:50you're looking for something affordable,
  456. 14:52I do think that this is a great choice
  457. 14:53because given how much her cards
  458. 14:54typically cost, this is quite cheap.
  459. 14:57Next, we have Zoro with an average card
  460. 14:59cost of $64. I think Zoro's are skewed a
  461. 15:01little bit more by how expensive his
  462. 15:03most recent treasure rare is.
  463. 15:05Um but this OP14 one is only $9. Again,
  464. 15:09this is not my favorite Zoro. I actually
  465. 15:11think this might be my least favorite
  466. 15:12Zoro. So, I'm not going to say that I
  467. 15:14think this is like a screaming buy at
  468. 15:16$9. Um
  469. 15:17but I think in terms of cards in a box,
  470. 15:20$9 is pretty inexpensive for a Zoro card
  471. 15:24that is frankly not that common. You
  472. 15:26know, I've said before that in general,
  473. 15:28these alt arts are a little bit less
  474. 15:30than one per case. And so, while they're
  475. 15:32not going to be as rare as a leader or
  476. 15:34as an SP or as a manga, I think they're
  477. 15:36less common than most people think they
  478. 15:37are. And so, for only $9, I feel like
  479. 15:40it's not a bad price. This Boa, I
  480. 15:42actually think is a really good value
  481. 15:44from OP13. There's going to be more of
  482. 15:46these out there because OP13 seems like
  483. 15:48it had a very large print run. But the
  484. 15:50average Boa alt art is $60, and this
  485. 15:52one's only $22. And to be honest, I
  486. 15:54don't know that I could tell you much of
  487. 15:56a difference between the more expensive
  488. 15:58Boa cards and the least expensive Boa
  489. 16:00cards. Obviously, it's going to depend
  490. 16:01on your taste, but I think this is a
  491. 16:03pretty good piece of art for only $22 if
  492. 16:06you're a Boa fan.
  493. 16:07And then finally, we have Luffy with an
  494. 16:09average alt art price of $57.
  495. 16:12We have this one from OP06 that's only
  496. 16:14$10. I actually think this art is really
  497. 16:16fun. It's like a different perspective
  498. 16:19on Luffy, and so I think that makes it
  499. 16:21interesting. So, I do think at $10, I
  500. 16:23think this is a pretty good value,
  501. 16:24right? I don't think this is going to be
  502. 16:26like a $50 card or $100 card. But like,
  503. 16:29why is this $10 when other similar cards
  504. 16:31are 20, 25, $30? That's the question I
  505. 16:35feel like I can't answer, right? So,
  506. 16:36that's why I think that this is
  507. 16:37undervalued. So, if you like these
  508. 16:39characters, I think these are some
  509. 16:40pretty affordable pickups
  510. 16:42that I think could justifiably be more
  511. 16:44expensive than they currently are. The
  512. 16:45last thing to say on this topic before
  513. 16:46we jump into our market update is, as I
  514. 16:48mentioned, they are currently doing the
  515. 16:50One Piece World Top 100. This is the
  516. 16:52second time they've done it to sort of
  517. 16:54assess character popularity.
  518. 16:56I submitted my vote for Jinbe. So, I
  519. 16:59encourage you to go submit your vote for
  520. 17:00your favorite character if you haven't
  521. 17:02already done that. It's really, really
  522. 17:04fascinating to see who like the 100 most
  523. 17:07popular characters are and how it varies
  524. 17:09across regions. I was very, very
  525. 17:11surprised. I don't want to give spoilers
  526. 17:12if you're going to go look at it, but I
  527. 17:14did not know Carrot was so popular in
  528. 17:16lots of places in the world, so that was
  529. 17:18really, really interesting. So, let's
  530. 17:19talk about our SP 500 index. Over the
  531. 17:22last 2 weeks, we have seen prices fall
  532. 17:242.1%. But, that is actually less
  533. 17:27representative of what the market seems
  534. 17:29to be doing
  535. 17:30than you would typically expect from
  536. 17:32this metric. And the reason is because
  537. 17:34you had cards moving in completely
  538. 17:36different directions sending different
  539. 17:38signals. So, for example, the top four
  540. 17:41cards of this week, we had two Boas, the
  541. 17:43Opio 4 and the Opio 9 Boa, and two
  542. 17:45Luffy's, the Opio 9 wanted poster and
  543. 17:48the Gum-Gum Giant from PRB 02. They were
  544. 17:50up a total of 13% this week. Meanwhile,
  545. 17:54you had eight cards in the bottom. The
  546. 17:56four worst performing cards were
  547. 17:58actually the Nami, the Robin from EB 03,
  548. 18:02and then the Boa from OP 14 and from OP
  549. 18:0415. Those cards were down 9% over the
  550. 18:07week with the rest of the cards sort of
  551. 18:09remaining in the middle. So, I think
  552. 18:11what we're seeing in the SPs right now,
  553. 18:13and actually in the market in general,
  554. 18:15is not a market consensus
  555. 18:18in terms of movement like we had seen,
  556. 18:20you know, about 6 months ago when we had
  557. 18:22the initial boom where just everything
  558. 18:23was going up. I think right now we're
  559. 18:25seeing a little bit of a speculators
  560. 18:26market where you have some people who
  561. 18:28are pushing really, really hard and
  562. 18:29spending a lot of money to pick things
  563. 18:31up that they think are undervalued,
  564. 18:33but that's isolated to specific cards
  565. 18:36and specific products. I also think, and
  566. 18:38we'll see this when we talk about the
  567. 18:39booster boxes, that people may be
  568. 18:41selling some of their cards to free up
  569. 18:43capital to be able to buy other assets
  570. 18:45that they would rather have. And I think
  571. 18:47that's what we're seeing here in the
  572. 18:48booster box market. So, actually all of
  573. 18:51the boxes were up this week except for
  574. 18:53the blue bottoms, which were down 16%,
  575. 18:56which for a box that had been trading
  576. 18:58over $5,000 is a large percentage to be
  577. 19:01down over a 2-week period. I will caveat
  578. 19:04that, you know, I was looking at like a
  579. 19:06couple sales, and then maybe if we took
  580. 19:08all of the sales over that period, we
  581. 19:09would get a slightly different picture,
  582. 19:11but based on the handful of sales over
  583. 19:13the last few days that I saw, this
  584. 19:15seemed to be down quite a bit. That's in
  585. 19:17contrast to EBO2, which we've been
  586. 19:19talking about a lot and I think has
  587. 19:21finally caught fire and is getting
  588. 19:23closer to what its fair value should be.
  589. 19:26That's up 39% over the last 2 weeks, so
  590. 19:29if you were looking to buy that at a
  591. 19:31bargain price, I think the window on
  592. 19:32that has probably closed. I think it
  593. 19:34still has a lot of upside, but obviously
  594. 19:36it's gone up a lot, so it's no longer,
  595. 19:38you know, the screaming bargain I
  596. 19:39thought it was. So, because the blue
  597. 19:40bottoms were down so much, the market
  598. 19:43for all the booster boxes was actually
  599. 19:45down 1.7%. Just being dragged down by
  600. 19:47how much the blue bottoms have fallen.
  601. 19:49But, if you remove the blue bottoms and
  602. 19:51the EBO2 from the equation, the rest of
  603. 19:53the booster boxes are up 5% over the
  604. 19:55last 2 weeks. So, I think in general the
  605. 19:57market for booster boxes is doing well.
  606. 20:00The big question is, why is OP-01 blue
  607. 20:02bottoms falling so far? And I think part
  608. 20:05of the answer is is that, as I said, I
  609. 20:07think we're moving into a speculators
  610. 20:09market and I think that folks who are
  611. 20:11holding blue bottoms have seen the
  612. 20:13prices have not appreciated as quickly
  613. 20:15as assets in other categories have. And
  614. 20:18so, I think for that reason, some of
  615. 20:19them at least are likely taking some
  616. 20:20profits, freeing up some capital to be
  617. 20:23able to buy other things that are higher
  618. 20:24performing. Does that mean that it's
  619. 20:26like a great time to buy blue bottoms? I
  620. 20:29don't know. I'll be honest, the blue
  621. 20:30bottoms are one of the hardest things
  622. 20:32for me to price
  623. 20:33because so much of their price is based
  624. 20:35on the idea that this box came first and
  625. 20:38that the blue bottoms are like the first
  626. 20:40edition and all those things. So, in a
  627. 20:43future video we're going to be looking
  628. 20:44at expected value of blue bottoms, white
  629. 20:46bottoms and comparing them, so maybe
  630. 20:48we'll be able to have a better
  631. 20:49conversation once we've looked at that.
  632. 20:51As always, this isn't financial advice,
  633. 20:52but I recommend that everybody trade a
  634. 20:54little bit carefully. Make sure you
  635. 20:56don't FOMO. As I said, I think we're in
  636. 20:58a speculators market, you're going to
  637. 20:59see prices shoot up really quickly.
  638. 21:01There's going to be a lot of buyouts.
  639. 21:03This is speculative hype. Some of these
  640. 21:05things may end up being real, but a lot
  641. 21:08of them won't. And so, make sure that
  642. 21:10you're not just following the herd.
  643. 21:12That's going to be a recipe for not
  644. 21:13enjoying your collecting experience. So,
  645. 21:15make sure you're being thoughtful out
  646. 21:16there. And if you see a massive price
  647. 21:18change over a short period of time, I
  648. 21:19want you to think critically about
  649. 21:20whether this is actually the right time
  650. 21:21to buy that card or whether we're just
  651. 21:23getting caught up in the hype around it.
  652. 21:25That's all I have for today. As always,
  653. 21:27I hope you found this helpful. If you
  654. 21:28did, please like, comment, and subscribe
  655. 21:32if you haven't already. We also have our
  656. 21:34TCGPlayer affiliate link and our eBay
  657. 21:36store in the description of this video.
  658. 21:38If you like any of the cards that you
  659. 21:39saw here and you plan to pick them up,
  660. 21:40it would be super helpful for us if you
  661. 21:42use that link. We get a small commission
  662. 21:44and it doesn't cost you anything. Also,
  663. 21:45if you're just looking for the cards
  664. 21:46from this video in general, you can find
  665. 21:48them on the eBay storefront. No
  666. 21:50obligation to buy, but they'll be there
  667. 21:52if you're trying to figure out which
  668. 21:53cards I was talking about. So, with
  669. 21:54that, as always, I appreciate your time
  670. 21:57and I will see you in the next one.

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