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Case Interview Fundamentals: Lesson 24 [Quantitative Analyses: The 4-step approach] — Transcript

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  1. 0:00Hello everyone, what's up? This is Julio
  2. 0:02speaking as I said in the previous
  3. 0:04video. Welcome to the quantitative
  4. 0:06analysis module of case interview
  5. 0:08fundamentals. What you're going to learn
  6. 0:10in this video is what an analysis is
  7. 0:13from a case interview question
  8. 0:15perspective and from the consulting job
  9. 0:18perspective. You're going to learn what
  10. 0:20you're being tested on, what your
  11. 0:22mistakes and your hits tell your
  12. 0:24interviewer about your day-to-day skills
  13. 0:26as a consultant, and what it tells them
  14. 0:28about what they can expect from you as a
  15. 0:30consultant. You're going to learn a
  16. 0:32four-step approach to make sure that you
  17. 0:34touch on everything that the interviewer
  18. 0:37wants to see during a quantitative
  19. 0:40analysis question regardless of what
  20. 0:43question they give you, what industry,
  21. 0:45what type, how hard it is. And you're
  22. 0:47going to learn a technique to create
  23. 0:49structures. It pisses me off that so
  24. 0:53much content out there, case books,
  25. 0:54videos, YouTube videos, everything just
  26. 0:58gives you an analysis question and then
  27. 0:59shows you the answer as if it's simple.
  28. 1:02And the truth is to most of us it isn't.
  29. 1:05There are techniques and there are
  30. 1:07skills that one can learn and it is
  31. 1:10possible to learn, it isn't a God-given
  32. 1:13skill. And I'm going to show you
  33. 1:15what these techniques are so that you
  34. 1:17can create structures by yourself. So
  35. 1:20let's jump right into what is a
  36. 1:22quantitative analysis from a case
  37. 1:24interview perspective. So a quantitative
  38. 1:27analysis question is when an interviewer
  39. 1:29gives you data and asks you to calculate
  40. 1:32a number or to calculate a conclusion
  41. 1:35for example, such as which of these
  42. 1:38options is better, does this investment
  43. 1:40make sense, etc. Let me show you some
  44. 1:43examples of what analysis questions
  45. 1:45could be.
  46. 1:47Take a look at these. Calculate revenue
  47. 1:49synergies from introducing your
  48. 1:50competitors products into Starbucks
  49. 1:53stores after an acquisition.
  50. 1:55Calculate cost savings in R&D, research
  51. 1:58and development after implementing this
  52. 2:00new process. Or given this table of
  53. 2:03data, how much will it cost to improve
  54. 2:05the quality of this university's dorm
  55. 2:07rooms?
  56. 2:08Now, you can expect to have
  57. 2:11one or two of these in every case that
  58. 2:14you do. Every interviewer is going to
  59. 2:15test your quant skills some way, and
  60. 2:18this is
  61. 2:19usually one of them.
  62. 2:21You might say that these questions are
  63. 2:23similar to estimation questions because
  64. 2:26well, you got to calculate stuff. And
  65. 2:28the difference from estimations is that
  66. 2:31in estimation questions,
  67. 2:33they won't give you any data. Or they'll
  68. 2:35give you a little bit of data, but
  69. 2:37they'll ask you to estimate stuff and
  70. 2:39you'll have to come up with a lot of the
  71. 2:40assumptions.
  72. 2:41In or maybe they will even give you the
  73. 2:44assumptions, but only after you
  74. 2:46structure. Now, in quantitative analysis
  75. 2:49questions, they
  76. 2:51give you some data to begin with.
  77. 2:53Just a heads up, it's hardly ever all
  78. 2:56the data you need. So, almost every
  79. 2:58single time you need to ask for more
  80. 3:00data. But yeah, that's the main
  81. 3:01difference that you're going to see. And
  82. 3:04a difference that's not conclusive, but
  83. 3:06it's helpful and it works most of the
  84. 3:09times is that estimations are often
  85. 3:11market sizings and they often start with
  86. 3:14can you estimate a number for something.
  87. 3:17And in this case, they ask you to
  88. 3:19usually calculate a number for something
  89. 3:21and it's usually not a market size.
  90. 3:23Although it could be. Could be They
  91. 3:25could ask you to calculate a market size
  92. 3:26and give you a few numbers and you have
  93. 3:28to come up with others. And that would
  94. 3:31really be a gray area between estimation
  95. 3:33questions and quantitative analysis
  96. 3:34questions. And
  97. 3:36honestly, there isn't that much of a
  98. 3:38difference between them if you look at
  99. 3:41them from a pure analytical perspective.
  100. 3:45All right?
  101. 3:46Now,
  102. 3:47I want to address a common misconception
  103. 3:50here. Many, many, many people call these
  104. 3:52questions math questions.
  105. 3:55And I want to break this myth down.
  106. 3:59These are not math questions, and here's
  107. 4:01why. So, a math question implies that
  108. 4:04the most important part of the question
  109. 4:07is the math, the actual calculation of
  110. 4:09the numerical answer and getting to the
  111. 4:12right number, like you would in a eighth
  112. 4:15grade math test. And this is not the
  113. 4:19answer at all. Calculating the number
  114. 4:21does not make you a consultant, it makes
  115. 4:23you a calculator.
  116. 4:25The problem-solving skills
  117. 4:28that you need as a consultant are all
  118. 4:30about how you get to the number and what
  119. 4:33you do with it. All right? So, this
  120. 4:35brings me to what is an analysis from a
  121. 4:39consultant's perspective. This is going
  122. 4:40to make you understand so much more why
  123. 4:43I'm saying that these are not math
  124. 4:45questions. I understand that that's an
  125. 4:48easy way to identify them when you're
  126. 4:50talking about them, but it also brings
  127. 4:52along a lot of baggage, and it makes it
  128. 4:54seem like the math is the most important
  129. 4:56part. So, I don't want you calling them
  130. 4:58that and getting yourself in the wrong
  131. 5:00mindset, okay? So, what's an analysis
  132. 5:02from a consultant's perspective?
  133. 5:05Conceptually, what you're doing in a
  134. 5:07consulting project is coming up with
  135. 5:10several hypotheses and then testing
  136. 5:13them. For example, you have a hypothesis
  137. 5:15that your client's addressable market is
  138. 5:18going to reach 100 million dollars in 5
  139. 5:21years, or that their customers are
  140. 5:24currently unsatisfied with their
  141. 5:25product, but the customers are buying
  142. 5:28anyway because they don't have any other
  143. 5:29option. Or that you if your client and a
  144. 5:33specific target merge, they can save
  145. 5:36half a billion dollars in procurement
  146. 5:38costs by buying in larger books. And
  147. 5:41[snorts]
  148. 5:42you're going to use data to test these
  149. 5:44hypotheses. And you're going to gather
  150. 5:47this data from research, from your
  151. 5:49client's databases, etc. But databases
  152. 5:52alone are of no use. You can't just look
  153. 5:55at green data falling like the Matrix
  154. 5:58guys and take conclusions from them. You
  155. 6:00need to model them into simpler
  156. 6:02information, which synthesizes that
  157. 6:04data, so that you can
  158. 6:07actually process it in your mind. But
  159. 6:09these numbers alone still don't tell you
  160. 6:11anything. If I tell you that your
  161. 6:13client's revenues are $20 billion, this
  162. 6:16will have completely opposite meanings
  163. 6:19if last year's revenues were $18 billion
  164. 6:22or if they were $22 billion.
  165. 6:24Or if I tell you that the market size is
  166. 6:2640 billion or if the market size is 400
  167. 6:29billion. It's the different The meaning
  168. 6:31is completely different. And so the
  169. 6:33lesson here is that you also need to
  170. 6:35compare that number to something else in
  171. 6:38order to make it meaningful and in order
  172. 6:40to prove or disprove any hypothesis.
  173. 6:43And the whole process of testing this
  174. 6:46hypothesis or all of these hypotheses
  175. 6:49using data, all the way from figuring
  176. 6:52out what comparison you're going to
  177. 6:54make, then gathering the data, then
  178. 6:56modeling it, then getting to a number,
  179. 6:58and then actually doing the comparison,
  180. 7:01this is what a quantitative analysis is
  181. 7:03from the consulting job perspective.
  182. 7:06Basically, from all this, what you can
  183. 7:09understand is that if you're doing a
  184. 7:12quantitative analysis in a consulting
  185. 7:14project, you need to have two main
  186. 7:16skills, the quantitative skills and the
  187. 7:19communication skills.
  188. 7:22I will tell you why in a second, but
  189. 7:24here's what they are. The quantitative
  190. 7:25skills is basically knowing what
  191. 7:28comparisons you need to make to get to
  192. 7:31that conclusion and where those bars are
  193. 7:34to know if something is true or is
  194. 7:35false, what numbers from the real world
  195. 7:38you need to be able to get to those
  196. 7:40comparisons, and how exactly you can
  197. 7:43model them to turn raw data into the
  198. 7:47information that you need. On the soft
  199. 7:49skill side, you need to be able to
  200. 7:51discuss on a conceptual level what your
  201. 7:55what your analysis is. You need to be
  202. 7:56able to discuss it before doing it, and
  203. 7:58you need to be able to discuss it on a
  204. 8:00conceptual level after doing it, so that
  205. 8:02you can talk and explain and get input
  206. 8:07from the team and from the client before
  207. 8:10and after running the analysis. Now,
  208. 8:13the reason you need the quantitative
  209. 8:15skills is obvious. If you don't know
  210. 8:17what are the comparisons you need to
  211. 8:19make, you can't make them. If you don't
  212. 8:21know what numbers you need from the real
  213. 8:23world, you won't get the numbers cuz you
  214. 8:25don't know what they are. If you don't
  215. 8:26know exactly what you need to do with
  216. 8:27them, you're going to do random stuff to
  217. 8:29them, and you're going to get to
  218. 8:30inaccurate numbers.
  219. 8:32Now, why do you need to be able to
  220. 8:34discuss it if you are already able to
  221. 8:36get to the right number?
  222. 8:38So,
  223. 8:40there are
  224. 8:41several reasons for that, right? Reason
  225. 8:44number one, if you discuss your analysis
  226. 8:46with your team before doing it, you
  227. 8:48might figure out that something in your
  228. 8:51thought process is wrong, and you need
  229. 8:53to fix it, you need to run an analysis
  230. 8:54differently. You might figure out that
  231. 8:57the analysis doesn't need to be done for
  232. 8:59some reason, or there's an easier way to
  233. 9:02do it, and so you end up saving time.
  234. 9:04And one of the worst things you can do
  235. 9:06as a consultant, who of course is not
  236. 9:09screwing up badly, is wasting client's
  237. 9:11time. All consultant projects are under
  238. 9:15time constraint. If you waste someone's
  239. 9:17time for a week running an analysis that
  240. 9:20didn't need to be run, you are all going
  241. 9:22to have a nightless week. It's going to
  242. 9:25suck suck for everyone. All right? And
  243. 9:27your client's going to be pissed, and
  244. 9:28you're not going to get to the results
  245. 9:29that you want. But there are other
  246. 9:31reasons for it. Another reason for being
  247. 9:34able to discuss the analysis on a
  248. 9:35conceptual level is that you can use
  249. 9:37more brainpower in the analysis and in
  250. 9:40the project because if you're not only
  251. 9:42your brain working on designing the
  252. 9:44analysis, it's everyone else's, you can
  253. 9:46be more precise, you can do better
  254. 9:48analysis, you can get to a better
  255. 9:50number, you can also do it more
  256. 9:51efficiently.
  257. 9:52Another reason yet for that is that so
  258. 9:55you can have everyone on board so they
  259. 9:57can vouch your analysis. Basically, an
  260. 9:59idea that I'm trying to give you here is
  261. 10:01that when you're doing a consulting
  262. 10:02project
  263. 10:04every single analysis that you do, this
  264. 10:06might be a bold statement, but every
  265. 10:07single analysis that you do
  266. 10:09someone will be against it. Some
  267. 10:11stakeholders are going to want one
  268. 10:13answer, other stakeholders are going to
  269. 10:14want another. And
  270. 10:16unless you are able to explain very
  271. 10:19logically why the number that you got to
  272. 10:22is true and it's undoubtedly true
  273. 10:26they're going to bash it and the
  274. 10:27discussion's going to turn political and
  275. 10:29not logical and you're not going to get
  276. 10:32your point across.
  277. 10:33The other person's just going to say, "I
  278. 10:35have experience in this industry. I know
  279. 10:36what you're talking about, you don't.
  280. 10:38Why would I trust your number?" Right?
  281. 10:40So, this is why you need to be able to
  282. 10:42communicate and discuss your assumption
  283. 10:45on a high conceptual level, not only you
  284. 10:48need to be able to perform it
  285. 10:50accurately. Okay? Now that you
  286. 10:53understand what skills you need to have
  287. 10:55and why you need to have them and how
  288. 10:57you're going to use them, I'm going to
  289. 10:59get exactly into the concrete situation
  290. 11:01we're simulating cuz that's going to
  291. 11:03make it a lot more clear to you why and
  292. 11:06how you should perform in those case
  293. 11:08interviews.
  294. 11:09We're simulating in a case interview a
  295. 11:12discussion about an analysis that you
  296. 11:15are having as an associate with a
  297. 11:17manager or partner before doing an
  298. 11:19analysis. Then we're simulating you
  299. 11:22doing the analysis and you're getting
  300. 11:25the data
  301. 11:26that you would get from the client or
  302. 11:29from the market or whatever, you're
  303. 11:31getting it from the interviewer. Instead
  304. 11:33of placing it all in Excel or FKL or
  305. 11:36whatever data processing tool you're
  306. 11:39going to use, you're going to use your
  307. 11:41pen and paper to do math. And then
  308. 11:43you're going to discuss the results with
  309. 11:45said manager or partner, which in the
  310. 11:47case is the interviewer, right?
  311. 11:49The other thing that we could be
  312. 11:51simulating is this very same thing with
  313. 11:52the client instead of a manager or
  314. 11:54partner. So you discuss analysis you're
  315. 11:56going to run with the client. They might
  316. 11:58like it, they might dislike it, but
  317. 12:01will need to agree on a conceptual level
  318. 12:03to what you're doing, right? And so
  319. 12:06given all of this,
  320. 12:08what I want you to understand is
  321. 12:11what are the skills that they're testing
  322. 12:14for in these situations? What skills are
  323. 12:16necessary in the situation that we're
  324. 12:18simulating and in all of the situations
  325. 12:21that
  326. 12:22will use quantitative analysis in the
  327. 12:25consulting job. Basically, number one,
  328. 12:29they're testing to see if you know what
  329. 12:31comparisons to do. They want to know
  330. 12:33that you can take conclusions from the
  331. 12:36data.
  332. 12:37Basically, that is seeing if you can
  333. 12:40have a discussion in the end of your
  334. 12:42analysis. They're seeing if you can
  335. 12:45interpret the number that you got and
  336. 12:47that
  337. 12:49you can lead from it. You can get to the
  338. 12:51next steps. This is step number four of
  339. 12:54the analytical process, which I'm going
  340. 12:57to show you the steps in a little bit.
  341. 12:59Because
  342. 13:00if you don't know what are the
  343. 13:02comparisons you're going to do and
  344. 13:05if you don't know how to interpret the
  345. 13:07data, when you need to design the
  346. 13:09analysis instead of the interviewer
  347. 13:11asking you to calculate something, you
  348. 13:13won't be able to because
  349. 13:15if you don't know what comparison you
  350. 13:16need to do, I want to compare, you know,
  351. 13:19the market size of this product to the
  352. 13:22market size of the other product that we
  353. 13:24have or whatever. If you don't know
  354. 13:26that, then how are you going to know
  355. 13:28that you need to calculate the market
  356. 13:29size? You won't. So, that's why they're
  357. 13:31testing this.
  358. 13:32Number two, they want to know that you
  359. 13:34know how to process the numbers. That is
  360. 13:37basically step number two, structuring
  361. 13:39your analysis. Because
  362. 13:42once you get all of that raw data, and
  363. 13:45trust me, it's a ton of data,
  364. 13:48how are you going to model it? What are
  365. 13:50you going to do to each of your numbers
  366. 13:52to get to the answer? If you don't know
  367. 13:54how to do this by yourself, then you
  368. 13:57can't be trusted alone with a computer,
  369. 13:59the data, and the Excel that you're
  370. 14:01going to get to an answer, right? Number
  371. 14:03three, they're testing to see if you
  372. 14:05know what data you need. Basically,
  373. 14:07what's going to happen here in so many
  374. 14:10cases is that the interviewer is going
  375. 14:12to give you a few pieces of data, but
  376. 14:14they're not going to give you all of the
  377. 14:16pieces of data that you need. And they
  378. 14:18want to see you asking for the data
  379. 14:22so that they can tell that you know what
  380. 14:24data you need.
  381. 14:26Right? They gave you some pieces of
  382. 14:27data, and that's mostly to guide you in
  383. 14:29what direction you should go. But they
  384. 14:31want to see that you can understand what
  385. 14:34data is missing, and you can look for it
  386. 14:36somehow. In this case, asking it. It's
  387. 14:39very similar to
  388. 14:41the GMAT data sufficiency questions,
  389. 14:44because you need to be able to tell
  390. 14:46whether you have enough data to get to a
  391. 14:48conclusion or not.
  392. 14:49Basically, this skill derives from you
  393. 14:52knowing the structure that you're going
  394. 14:53to need to use and you having the
  395. 14:55business sense to know what extra data
  396. 14:59you might need. So, what other factors
  397. 15:01might be affecting this number that are
  398. 15:03not obvious right now. And then you ask
  399. 15:05about those pieces of data to the
  400. 15:06interviewer.
  401. 15:08Next, number four, they want to know
  402. 15:10that you know how to communicate the
  403. 15:13structure in English rather than in
  404. 15:16Excel or in
  405. 15:18numbers or only drawings. So, that you
  406. 15:20can discuss it like we talked about
  407. 15:22before without wasting time and so that
  408. 15:25you can
  409. 15:26prove that what you've done makes sense
  410. 15:28rather than being a guess or being
  411. 15:31wrong, right? What you're going to find
  412. 15:33in consulting is that
  413. 15:36a lot of the work is convincing or
  414. 15:40maybe as much of the work in an analysis
  415. 15:42that is not uh what everyone wants it to
  416. 15:45be as much as convincing as it is
  417. 15:47analyzing, right?
  418. 15:49And what you might have noticed from
  419. 15:51these skills is that math isn't exactly
  420. 15:56in there, right? They do want to know
  421. 15:59that you are able to do quick and easy
  422. 16:01math and that you're not going to screw
  423. 16:03up with numbers. You're going to be
  424. 16:04dealing with numbers a lot. So, you need
  425. 16:05to be able to do some calculations in
  426. 16:07your mind in your head and quickly. But,
  427. 16:10given all of these situations, math is
  428. 16:13not a priority.
  429. 16:15That is why so many times you see people
  430. 16:18saying, "Oh, I made a tiny mistake. The
  431. 16:19interviewer didn't care and we moved
  432. 16:21on." If you make many mistakes, that's a
  433. 16:23red flag. If you don't catch your own
  434. 16:25mistakes, that's a red flag. But, math
  435. 16:28is essentially secondary. Excel's going
  436. 16:30to be doing most of the math in your
  437. 16:31consulting job. And yes, you need to be
  438. 16:33fluent with numbers, but that's not key
  439. 16:37to the analytical part of a consultant's
  440. 16:39work.
  441. 16:41And I'm going to show you
  442. 16:42a wrong answers only version
  443. 16:45of an analysis question and I'm going to
  444. 16:47show you what the wrong answers mean to
  445. 16:50an interviewer.
  446. 16:52So, imagine this is the question that we
  447. 16:56get in an analysis question in a case
  448. 16:58interview.
  449. 16:59So, imagine we are working on a
  450. 17:01potential merger and our client is the
  451. 17:03manufacturer of a product that is sold
  452. 17:06in Starbucks. And of course, the client
  453. 17:09wants to acquire a competitor. You're
  454. 17:11working on the revenue synergies front
  455. 17:13of the project and you get to a moment
  456. 17:16where you will calculate the potential
  457. 17:18increase in revenues from adding the
  458. 17:21competitors products to next to your own
  459. 17:24in Starbucks shelves. And we have a few
  460. 17:27pieces of data for you here. We know
  461. 17:28that we currently sell in 3,000
  462. 17:32Starbucks stores. Our products sell for
  463. 17:36four seven units per day. And we can
  464. 17:39expect per store, of course, and we can
  465. 17:41expect the competitors products to sell
  466. 17:43at the same rate.
  467. 17:44Okay.
  468. 17:45And now let's say that I ask my
  469. 17:47interviewer, "All right, so
  470. 17:50do we know the price at which the
  471. 17:53competitors products are going to be
  472. 17:54sold?" And let's say the interviewer
  473. 17:56says $2 per product. "And do we know how
  474. 17:59many days the Starbucks stores are open
  475. 18:02a year?" And let's say the interviewer
  476. 18:04tells me it's 300. Okay. So,
  477. 18:08I'm going to do some math here. 7 * 300
  478. 18:12is 2.1 thousand * 2, that's 4.2
  479. 18:16thousand. 4.2 thousand * 3,000, that
  480. 18:19gives me 12.6 million. So, 12.6 million.
  481. 18:23And let's say that I know what the
  482. 18:25target company revenues are and I'll
  483. 18:28say, "Oh, target revenues would grow 30%
  484. 18:31with that, so the acquisition seems like
  485. 18:33a great idea." And etc. etc. I say other
  486. 18:36things as well.
  487. 18:38Do you see the problem here? The
  488. 18:40interviewer has no idea what I just did.
  489. 18:42The interviewer just knows that I asked
  490. 18:44for some pieces of data. And I did some
  491. 18:47calculations, which he has no idea what
  492. 18:50they were,
  493. 18:51where they were going to, what I did.
  494. 18:53And the number might even be right, and
  495. 18:56he would only know that the number is
  496. 18:58right because he is the interviewer, he
  497. 19:00designed that question. But in a real
  498. 19:02case, in a real project situation, what
  499. 19:05happens is
  500. 19:06this guy did not create the question.
  501. 19:08He's overseeing you solve a real-life
  502. 19:11problem. And when you get to him with
  503. 19:15answer that is just a number
  504. 19:17and you don't at all explain what you
  505. 19:19did, you don't explain what you're going
  506. 19:21to do before,
  507. 19:22he can never know
  508. 19:24whether you were right or wrong. If he
  509. 19:28can't know if you're right or wrong, you
  510. 19:29can't convince him.
  511. 19:31And so he has to assume that you're
  512. 19:33wrong.
  513. 19:34And someone else that has to assume that
  514. 19:36you're wrong is the guy in the client's
  515. 19:38side that doesn't like your answer.
  516. 19:41They will say that you probably didn't
  517. 19:43consider a ton of stuff that they did
  518. 19:45consider. And they can only assume that
  519. 19:48you forgot and that you're wrong. And
  520. 19:50also from a case interview perspective,
  521. 19:52there's a problem with that because
  522. 19:54they might know that you were right in
  523. 19:58that one cuz you got the number right.
  524. 19:59But since they have no idea how you did
  525. 20:02that, they can't be sure
  526. 20:05that you would do everything right and
  527. 20:07get you the right number in a different
  528. 20:08case. They can't know if you were just
  529. 20:11lucky. You need to show your work. So
  530. 20:14this is why we create a structure
  531. 20:17when solving an analysis.
  532. 20:19Now, there's also another problem with
  533. 20:23the answer that I just gave you.
  534. 20:24So
  535. 20:25there's something you might not have
  536. 20:27noticed that I didn't do, but I didn't
  537. 20:29ask the interviewer if there was going
  538. 20:31to be any cannibalization
  539. 20:33on the units that we currently sell.
  540. 20:36So let's say we currently sell seven
  541. 20:38units per day. Our competitor that once
  542. 20:41we place them there is also going to
  543. 20:42sell seven units per day, but since the
  544. 20:45consumers are the same that are buying,
  545. 20:47some of them are not going to buy our
  546. 20:48product and buy only the competitors. So
  547. 20:50we can expect our sales to decrease to
  548. 20:53[snorts] four units per day or
  549. 20:54something.
  550. 20:55If that happens, then that changes the
  551. 20:58revenue synergies and I should have
  552. 20:59taken that into consideration.
  553. 21:01Another thing that I could have asked is
  554. 21:04are we going to be able to sell to
  555. 21:06Starbucks at a higher price since we are
  556. 21:08going to,
  557. 21:10you know,
  558. 21:11have more negotiation power with them
  559. 21:13cuz we're going to be selling more units
  560. 21:14to them.
  561. 21:15And
  562. 21:17in those two cases, the answer would be
  563. 21:19no. There would be no cannibalization
  564. 21:21and the price would not change. I only
  565. 21:24know this because I created this case. I
  566. 21:26created this case for this specific
  567. 21:28example. The case is in my mind. The
  568. 21:30answer is in my mind. It can be whatever
  569. 21:32I want and in this case it's those don't
  570. 21:34change. The fact that they don't affect
  571. 21:37the answer do not affect the fact that I
  572. 21:40need to ask about these things. Why?
  573. 21:44Because
  574. 21:45they show to my interviewer that if the
  575. 21:47case were different, then
  576. 21:50I would still have gotten it right. It
  577. 21:52doesn't matter that I got to the right
  578. 21:54number if I didn't consider a factor
  579. 21:57that does not play off in this case, but
  580. 21:59could have played off in this case.
  581. 22:02If I don't ask these questions, it shows
  582. 22:04to the interviewer that I can execute,
  583. 22:06but I can't think. The interviewer can't
  584. 22:08trust me with a problem that they don't
  585. 22:11fully understand and that they can't
  586. 22:14completely double-check my work.
  587. 22:17They will always know that I need
  588. 22:19someone who will save me, someone who
  589. 22:22will check my work and who will
  590. 22:25find the stuff that
  591. 22:28I need to be creative in order to
  592. 22:30consider,
  593. 22:31right? And
  594. 22:32so
  595. 22:34in the end, I won't be saving the
  596. 22:36managers and the partners time. I will
  597. 22:39be adding more work to their workload.
  598. 22:42And so they won't be able to manage as
  599. 22:44many projects as they wish they did and
  600. 22:46that will get them, you know, more
  601. 22:48money, more money to the firm and more
  602. 22:51happiness to the clients and whatever,
  603. 22:53right? And so
  604. 22:55they will be hiring if they hired me,
  605. 22:57they won't be hiring someone who helped
  606. 22:59them catch mistakes, who helped them
  607. 23:02solve problems. They're going to be
  608. 23:03hiring someone who will be making new
  609. 23:05mistakes and who will be creating
  610. 23:07problems for them.
  611. 23:09Now, I want you to consider this other
  612. 23:10potential answer. Let's say I tell the
  613. 23:12interviewer that I first want to find
  614. 23:15the revenues per store that we would
  615. 23:18have increased to the target's current
  616. 23:22revenues.
  617. 23:23And then I multiply that by the number
  618. 23:25of stores they would go in. And so that
  619. 23:27would give me
  620. 23:28the
  621. 23:29total revenue increase. And then I'd
  622. 23:31remove I'd account for a cannibalization
  623. 23:34of our own products. And then
  624. 23:36I would account for a potential price
  625. 23:38increase for both our products and the
  626. 23:40target's products given that we're now
  627. 23:42selling them more stuff. We might have
  628. 23:44more leverage in the negotiation.
  629. 23:47And then I ask them if they know what
  630. 23:49price our units and the competitors'
  631. 23:51units sell for.
  632. 23:53And if there might be a price difference
  633. 23:55if there is cannibalization expected and
  634. 23:58how many days the stores would be open
  635. 24:00in the year. Then I run the calculations
  636. 24:02like I did before and I tell them that
  637. 24:04the answer is 13 million or 12.6
  638. 24:07million. But I don't say anything
  639. 24:08afterwards.
  640. 24:10Right?
  641. 24:11The problem here is that
  642. 24:14I was not hired to give the interviewer
  643. 24:16a number.
  644. 24:17I was hired to solve the problem.
  645. 24:20And solving the problem doesn't mean
  646. 24:23getting to the number. It means
  647. 24:25>> [snorts]
  648. 24:26>> actually solving the problems that the
  649. 24:28project has. So what they would expect
  650. 24:31me to do in a real consulting project is
  651. 24:34get to this number, know exactly what to
  652. 24:36do next, and start doing it. And if that
  653. 24:40is
  654. 24:41finding the right people to communicate
  655. 24:43this number, then that would be finding
  656. 24:45the right people to communicate this
  657. 24:46number. If that would be finding if
  658. 24:49there would be cost savings given this
  659. 24:51volume increase or if there would be
  660. 24:53price increase given this volume
  661. 24:55increase, and figuring that out somehow,
  662. 24:57or if that would be finding out if there
  663. 24:59are capacity issues, or anything like
  664. 25:02that.
  665. 25:03That's what they want me to do.
  666. 25:05Or if it would even be just finding out
  667. 25:08what this 12.6 million means. That's
  668. 25:11what they're expecting me to do. They're
  669. 25:12not expecting me to give them a number.
  670. 25:15And if we're doing this project, and I
  671. 25:18get to this number on Wednesday, but I
  672. 25:20can only talk to the manager on Monday,
  673. 25:24they don't want me to waste 2.5 days.
  674. 25:26They want me to know exactly what to do.
  675. 25:29And hell, if I am the manager, I need to
  676. 25:32be able to tell them what to do, and I
  677. 25:34need to be able to do this now, because
  678. 25:35it's not such a hard skill.
  679. 25:37So, if you don't know how to do this
  680. 25:39when you're going in the consulting
  681. 25:41firm, they assume that you're never
  682. 25:43going to learn. So,
  683. 25:45conclusion, you want to show that you
  684. 25:48know how to interpret the number that
  685. 25:50you get to, and that you know what to do
  686. 25:53with it, and what other people should do
  687. 25:55with it as well. Now, let me show you
  688. 25:57what a right answer would look like.
  689. 25:59Let's say that the interviewer tells me,
  690. 26:01you know, the case question and all, and
  691. 26:03tells me the data, it's 3,000 stores.
  692. 26:06We currently sell seven units per day.
  693. 26:08We can expect the target to sell for the
  694. 26:10same amount of units. And so, I would
  695. 26:12tell them, "All right. So, first, what I
  696. 26:14would do is find our revenues per store,
  697. 26:17the revenues per store that the target
  698. 26:19would have. And that would be just
  699. 26:21finding the number of
  700. 26:23units per year that would be sold, and
  701. 26:24multiply that by the price per unit.
  702. 26:26Then, I would find the total revenue
  703. 26:30increase for the target by multiplying
  704. 26:32the revenues per store that I got by the
  705. 26:35number of stores. Then, I'd account for
  706. 26:38a cannibalization, so I would
  707. 26:40find what our revenue decrease would be,
  708. 26:42and remove that from the
  709. 26:44overall revenue increase.
  710. 26:46And then, I would account for a
  711. 26:48potential price increase, if there is
  712. 26:50any, given that we're now selling a lot
  713. 26:53more units to Starbucks, we might have
  714. 26:55more negotiation leverage. So, would it
  715. 26:58be okay if I asked you some questions
  716. 26:59right now? Let's say the interviewer
  717. 27:01says, "Yes." So, I'll tell them, "Okay,
  718. 27:03I'd like to know at what price do we
  719. 27:06expect our competitor to sell their
  720. 27:08products on average?" And let's say the
  721. 27:10interviewer tells me it's $2.
  722. 27:12And I ask them, "Is there a difference
  723. 27:14expected in price between what they sell
  724. 27:18and we sell right now, and what we would
  725. 27:20sell for given that we'd have more
  726. 27:23negotiation leverage?" And let's say
  727. 27:25they sell they tell me, "No, ignore
  728. 27:27that."
  729. 27:28And now I want to know, would there be
  730. 27:30cannibalization? Do we expect our
  731. 27:32products to sell less now that the
  732. 27:34target products are selling in the same
  733. 27:36shelf?" And let's say the interviewer
  734. 27:38tells me to ignore this as well. And
  735. 27:40then I asked about the number of days a
  736. 27:42Starbucks store is open in a year, and
  737. 27:43they tell me 300. Okay? Now, I'm going
  738. 27:46to multiply the number of units per day
  739. 27:50by the number of days in a year to get
  740. 27:52to the number of units in a store in a
  741. 27:54year. And so, that's 7 * 300, that's
  742. 27:572.1,000.
  743. 28:00Now, I want to multiply that by the
  744. 28:01price, so I can get to the revenues per
  745. 28:04store. And so, 2.1,000 * $2, that is
  746. 28:08$4.2,000
  747. 28:10per store per year.
  748. 28:12Now, I'm going to multiply that by the
  749. 28:13number of stores. So, that would give me
  750. 28:16the revenue increase in total. So,
  751. 28:184.2,000 * 3,000 is 12.6 million.
  752. 28:24And since there's no cannibalization
  753. 28:27and no price increase, uh that is the
  754. 28:30final answer, 12.6 million. And right
  755. 28:33now I don't know what the target
  756. 28:35revenues are, but I would like to know
  757. 28:37so that I can know
  758. 28:39like let's say that this is a 30%
  759. 28:41increase in the revenues. This seems
  760. 28:43like a really good idea of acquisition
  761. 28:46because we would acquire let's say we
  762. 28:48acquire them for a fair price
  763. 28:50but right off the bat we increase the
  764. 28:52revenues and therefore probably their
  765. 28:55value even even more than that by 30%.
  766. 28:58This is an amazing investment by all
  767. 29:00means.
  768. 29:01Now what I would do next is first find
  769. 29:05out what the target revenues are so that
  770. 29:07I can actually size the benefit.
  771. 29:09But then I try to figure out if there
  772. 29:11might be cost savings in the target's
  773. 29:15manufacturing process given that now
  774. 29:16they're going to manufacture more units.
  775. 29:18I would try to find out if there would
  776. 29:20be price increase given that now we're
  777. 29:23going to sell more to Starbucks. Even
  778. 29:26though you told me to ignore that I
  779. 29:28that's necessary to know. And I would
  780. 29:30also try to figure out if our competitor
  781. 29:32can actually increase their capacity in
  782. 29:36that much. I don't know how much that is
  783. 29:38but if it's significant I want to know
  784. 29:41if they can increase their capacity
  785. 29:42easily or if there might need to be
  786. 29:44investments cuz then I need to take that
  787. 29:46into account. That's not you know a free
  788. 29:49increase in revenues just from the
  789. 29:51acquisition. Now what you should have
  790. 29:53seen from this answer that I gave you is
  791. 29:57all of the
  792. 29:58mistakes that I showed before are not
  793. 30:00present. I showed the interviewer
  794. 30:02exactly what I was going to do before
  795. 30:04then I asked them the questions that
  796. 30:07could be the numbers that I needed and
  797. 30:10the numbers that weren't logically
  798. 30:11necessary but that could be affecting
  799. 30:14the case. And even though they were not
  800. 30:16used
  801. 30:17the fact that I asked those questions is
  802. 30:19important. Then
  803. 30:21I calculated everything and I guided the
  804. 30:24interviewer through as I calculated and
  805. 30:26to guide them through I used the
  806. 30:28structure that I showed previously. And
  807. 30:30then after that I told the interviewer
  808. 30:32exactly what that number that we got to
  809. 30:35meant and I told them what I would do
  810. 30:37next so that they know that I can
  811. 30:40not only work by myself but also need a
  812. 30:43team if needed.
  813. 30:45Now, enough with what an analysis is,
  814. 30:49what are the skills, blah, blah, blah.
  815. 30:51Let's get right to the techniques that
  816. 30:54you need to learn to
  817. 30:56ace your case interviews, never get
  818. 30:59stuck again, etc. So, basically,
  819. 31:02if you learn the step-by-step approach
  820. 31:05and the structuring that technique that
  821. 31:07I'm going to teach you right now, and if
  822. 31:09you practice those until they're
  823. 31:11internalized, you will be able to create
  824. 31:14a robust structure for every single
  825. 31:16analysis question that you'll get, and
  826. 31:18you'll be able to generate useful
  827. 31:20insights. And you're going to show
  828. 31:22Essentially, you're going to show your
  829. 31:23interviewer that one, you can work
  830. 31:26independently,
  831. 31:27which is something that they absolutely
  832. 31:29need as they're all the time staffed
  833. 31:32under that assumption that all of their
  834. 31:34consultants can work independently.
  835. 31:36Number two, you're going to show them
  836. 31:38that you can take a quantitative problem
  837. 31:40off their hands without them worrying if
  838. 31:43they're going to need to redo your work
  839. 31:45or check your work more than just a
  840. 31:48quick glance and not trust you, right?
  841. 31:52Imagine if you have six of these
  842. 31:53problems, you're overwhelmed, and you
  843. 31:55have
  844. 31:57in front of you someone who could do
  845. 31:59half of your work for you. You're in
  846. 32:01heaven. That's exactly where the
  847. 32:04interviewer is sitting on right now.
  848. 32:07And you'll also be light years ahead
  849. 32:10ahead of 99% of candidates who feel lost
  850. 32:13in the middle of the problem and need
  851. 32:15the interviewer's help to move forward
  852. 32:16because they
  853. 32:18don't exactly know what they are what
  854. 32:20they're doing, and they can't move
  855. 32:22forward or move backward.
  856. 32:24Candidates who annoy the interviewer by
  857. 32:26not knowing the meaning of the number
  858. 32:28they're calculating, who have to hope
  859. 32:31for an easy or average question because
  860. 32:33they know that they can't handle a tough
  861. 32:35one, and candidates who are still
  862. 32:38playing the wrong game and call this a
  863. 32:39math problem. Believe me, the
  864. 32:41interviewer can see right through their
  865. 32:44poker faces. Now, before I show you the
  866. 32:46techniques, let's remember something.
  867. 32:49What are our goals when answering an
  868. 32:51analysis question? You want to show the
  869. 32:53interviewer your thought process so that
  870. 32:56they always know where we are, they
  871. 32:58always know that you'll get to the
  872. 32:59answer, that you will consider all of
  873. 33:02the variables so that you and the
  874. 33:05interviewer can discuss the issues and
  875. 33:07the approaches and the assumptions in
  876. 33:09isolation.
  877. 33:10Your goal is also to get to the right
  878. 33:12number, and your goal is to create a
  879. 33:15conclusion that's biased towards action
  880. 33:18given the number that you've calculated
  881. 33:20and the case question. So, the
  882. 33:22techniques that I'm going to show you
  883. 33:24are going to help you do exactly this.
  884. 33:26This is the four-step approach that you
  885. 33:28will follow. First, I'm going to give
  886. 33:30you just the steps, and then I'm going
  887. 33:32to give you an example of an analytical
  888. 33:34question, and then I'm going to go
  889. 33:36through it while I explain the steps to
  890. 33:38you, and then right away show you an
  891. 33:40example of how it's done. The steps are:
  892. 33:43Number one, structure
  893. 33:45your problem. Number two, ask for the
  894. 33:47data you need. Number three, calculate.
  895. 33:50And number four, once you get to the
  896. 33:52answer, lead from the insights.
  897. 33:55Now, let's get to the case question so
  898. 33:58that I can explain what each of those
  899. 34:01steps mean and how to do it
  900. 34:03from a real example and show you right
  901. 34:06away how it's done. This case question
  902. 34:09right here is comes straight from a
  903. 34:12business idea that Bruno and I had way
  904. 34:14before we started uh crafting cases or
  905. 34:18even case interview coaching. It didn't
  906. 34:21go forward. It wasn't really good idea.
  907. 34:23There might be ways out, but anyway,
  908. 34:25this is where this business case
  909. 34:28question comes from. So, your Your has a
  910. 34:30business idea, and he asked what you
  911. 34:32think of it.
  912. 34:34They want to create a chain of high-end
  913. 34:37coffee micro kiosks in airports.
  914. 34:40The each unit would only occupy around 2
  915. 34:44square meters, thus saving a lot of rent
  916. 34:47costs, and it would deliver super
  917. 34:49high-quality coffee, which wouldn't cost
  918. 34:52significantly more per cup if well
  919. 34:55purchased, which your friend believes
  920. 34:57they can do.
  921. 34:58This way, they could easily take
  922. 35:00significant market share from the
  923. 35:02low-quality overpriced coffee shops
  924. 35:04around. How would you analyze whether
  925. 35:06this is a good idea or not?
  926. 35:08And then let's say you answer with your
  927. 35:10framework for this question, which I'm
  928. 35:12not going to get into cuz I don't want
  929. 35:14to go into the framework question. But
  930. 35:16then, you get the following data.
  931. 35:19Let's say that the price per coffee cup
  932. 35:22is $3.75.
  933. 35:24The
  934. 35:26the total costs per cup of coffee for
  935. 35:30the micro kiosks is $1.
  936. 35:33And then there are the costs to open and
  937. 35:36create the micro kiosk stand
  938. 35:39for only one unit, which is $150,000.
  939. 35:43And the yearly operating costs,
  940. 35:45including rent and labor and etc., and
  941. 35:48that is $200,000 per year.
  942. 35:51And the question is
  943. 35:53for one single unit, how many cups of
  944. 35:56coffee would they need to sell in order
  945. 35:58to break even their investment in 2
  946. 36:00years? Now, you can start and right now
  947. 36:04run through all of the steps if you
  948. 36:06already feel safe to do so. What I'm
  949. 36:08going to do right now is pause before
  950. 36:11each step, explain you more details
  951. 36:14about the step, and then perform the
  952. 36:15step myself
  953. 36:17before moving on. Okay? So, I highly
  954. 36:20recommend you
  955. 36:22watch my description of the step before
  956. 36:24pausing the video and doing the step by
  957. 36:26yourself. All right, let's go. Now, I'm
  958. 36:28going to talk to you about the step
  959. 36:29number one, structure. Structuring the
  960. 36:32problem is basically showing to the
  961. 36:35interviewer
  962. 36:36what exactly you're going to do from
  963. 36:39beginning to end to get to the number
  964. 36:43that they've asked you to calculate.
  965. 36:45So, you'll say, "I'm going to do this
  966. 36:47and this and this and that and then I'm
  967. 36:49going to get to the final number." It
  968. 36:50should take you all the way
  969. 36:53throughout the calculations that you're
  970. 36:55going to do and it should have no
  971. 36:58numbers. It should only be conceptual so
  972. 37:01that the interviewer can agree or
  973. 37:03disagree with you
  974. 37:05in terms of logic and you don't have to
  975. 37:08dive and you even can't dive into the
  976. 37:11specific of each numbers. All right?
  977. 37:15I highly recommend you use step-by-step
  978. 37:17structures. There are several ways to do
  979. 37:19this. You could use formulas, you could
  980. 37:20use trees, but I highly recommend you
  981. 37:23use step-by-step structures because
  982. 37:25they're intuitive, they work for every
  983. 37:27single case, and they also give you a
  984. 37:30little bit of space to figure some stuff
  985. 37:32out on the go, but already have
  986. 37:35a
  987. 37:36proven path that will get you to your
  988. 37:39final answer. Now, I'm going to show you
  989. 37:41a technique. I'm going to explain to you
  990. 37:44a technique right now that will teach
  991. 37:46you how to create step-by-step
  992. 37:47structures for any problem. You're of
  993. 37:50course going to need a little bit of
  994. 37:51practice and that's what you're going to
  995. 37:53get in the next videos and also in this
  996. 37:55example right now, I'm going to show you
  997. 37:56myself using it, but it's a structure
  998. 37:58that if you practice, you will never
  999. 38:01have trouble
  1000. 38:03getting to the structure for a problem
  1001. 38:06again unless it's a really complicated
  1002. 38:08problem you've never seen before and
  1003. 38:09etc. etc. if it's super hard. Then, you
  1004. 38:11might need a little bit more of mental
  1005. 38:14power and perhaps the right kind of
  1006. 38:16practice, but this technique is already
  1007. 38:19a super strong tool even for those
  1008. 38:21cases. So, basically
  1009. 38:23here's what you're going to do.
  1010. 38:25You come up with a number. You You look
  1011. 38:27at the numbers that you have. You look
  1012. 38:29at the number that you need to get to.
  1013. 38:31And you come up with a number
  1014. 38:33that you know that you can get to and
  1015. 38:35that you know that will get you there.
  1016. 38:38Right? So, intuitively you know that you
  1017. 38:40can get to that number and that it will
  1018. 38:41get you there.
  1019. 38:43Maybe you need to ask for data from the
  1020. 38:45interviewer, that is fine. But, you know
  1021. 38:47that you can get to it even if you don't
  1022. 38:49know anything else. Now you have that
  1023. 38:51number.
  1024. 38:51Okay? And that is step one.
  1025. 38:54And then you look at everything that you
  1026. 38:56have again and you come up with one
  1027. 38:59number that you can get to, that you
  1028. 39:01know that will help you get there.
  1029. 39:03That's all you know.
  1030. 39:05That is step two. And then you repeat
  1031. 39:08that again and again and again until
  1032. 39:11the last step gets you to the final
  1033. 39:13number.
  1034. 39:14Okay? I'm going to show this to you
  1035. 39:16right now as I solve this question by
  1036. 39:19myself.
  1037. 39:20In a real case, I would have asked the
  1038. 39:22interviewer for some time and then I'd
  1039. 39:24create the structure in my mind. But, in
  1040. 39:26this case, I want to think out loud so
  1041. 39:28that you can follow me. Okay? So, I'm
  1042. 39:31looking at these numbers and one thing
  1043. 39:33that I know that I can get to and that I
  1044. 39:34know will help me somehow is
  1045. 39:37the gross profits per cup of coffee,
  1046. 39:41which is basically the price minus the
  1047. 39:43variable costs. I know that's going to
  1048. 39:45help me cuz it's the contribution that
  1049. 39:47each cup of coffee gives me
  1050. 39:50to cover those fixed costs and
  1051. 39:53investments that we need to cover to
  1052. 39:54reach break even. Okay?
  1053. 39:57Now what I have is fixed costs,
  1054. 39:59investments, and profits per cup of
  1055. 40:01coffee. And so, the next thing that I
  1056. 40:04know that I
  1057. 40:05can get to and that I know that will
  1058. 40:07help me is the total fixed costs and
  1059. 40:10investments that I'm going to have over
  1060. 40:13these 2 years. So, that's basically 2
  1061. 40:15years worth of fixed costs plus the
  1062. 40:17investments. And this is my step two.
  1063. 40:20Getting to total fixed costs and
  1064. 40:22investments in 2 years. And then my step
  1065. 40:24three is going to be finding how many of
  1066. 40:28these tiny bits of profit I need in
  1067. 40:30order to cover for those costs and
  1068. 40:32investment. So, that's step three,
  1069. 40:34actually getting to the number of cup of
  1070. 40:37coffee that I need to sell. Okay? So,
  1071. 40:40this is my structure. After thinking
  1072. 40:42through this way, I present it to the
  1073. 40:44interviewer as step number one, get to
  1074. 40:47the growth profits per cup of coffee.
  1075. 40:50Step number two, getting to the total
  1076. 40:52fixed costs and investment that these
  1077. 40:55growth profits will need to cover over 2
  1078. 40:57years. And step number three, dividing
  1079. 41:00the total fixed costs and investment by
  1080. 41:02the profit per cup of coffee to get to
  1081. 41:05the break-even number. Okay? Now, let's
  1082. 41:08talk about step number two, asking for
  1083. 41:11data.
  1084. 41:12Many numbers that you will need are
  1085. 41:15going to be clear to you that you're
  1086. 41:16going to need and that you're going to
  1087. 41:18need to figure it out somehow from your
  1088. 41:20structure because
  1089. 41:22you are going to need to divide the
  1090. 41:24number that you have by a number that
  1091. 41:26well, the interviewer didn't tell you,
  1092. 41:27so you know that that's a piece of data
  1093. 41:29that you need. But there's also another
  1094. 41:32type of potentially missing data that
  1095. 41:35you should look out for. And that is
  1096. 41:37things that might affect your answer,
  1097. 41:40but that don't necessarily need to be
  1098. 41:43there. Kind of like the cannibalization
  1099. 41:45effect that I was talking about in the
  1100. 41:47previous example, right? And in this
  1101. 41:49case, it could be something like, let's
  1102. 41:51say we are also selling something else
  1103. 41:53other than coffee. The interviewer just
  1104. 41:56didn't bother telling us, but we're also
  1105. 41:58selling muffins or whatever or mugs, I
  1106. 42:01don't know. And so, that would change
  1107. 42:04because that would change the structure
  1108. 42:06because we would need we would have
  1109. 42:08something else that's also covering for
  1110. 42:11costs and investments, And so, that
  1111. 42:13would change the break-even.
  1112. 42:15Now, that's something you should always
  1113. 42:17look for when doing analysis questions
  1114. 42:20because
  1115. 42:22even when they're not there, the
  1116. 42:24interviewer expects you to ask for some
  1117. 42:26stuff because
  1118. 42:28that shows them that you have the
  1119. 42:30creativity to think about other factors
  1120. 42:33that weren't mentioned that but that
  1121. 42:35might change the answer, which happens
  1122. 42:37all the time in the consulting job. And
  1123. 42:40they want to know that they can trust
  1124. 42:41you to solve the problem by yourself and
  1125. 42:44not have them need to ask you in the
  1126. 42:47meeting when you present your results,
  1127. 42:49but did you consider this? Did you
  1128. 42:51consider that? Did you consider that?
  1129. 42:53Okay?
  1130. 42:54Another thing that you should know about
  1131. 42:56asking for data. This is a mistake that
  1132. 42:59a lot of people do. They see that they
  1133. 43:01need a piece of data and so, they right
  1134. 43:03away start estimating your guessing this
  1135. 43:06that piece of data or that number or
  1136. 43:07whatever. And you should always request
  1137. 43:11the missing numbers before estimating
  1138. 43:14your guessing the numbers.
  1139. 43:16Think about the interviewer like a
  1140. 43:18skeptical client. They know the
  1141. 43:20industry.
  1142. 43:22They know a lot of numbers, but they
  1143. 43:24don't know what you want until you ask.
  1144. 43:27What this means is if you ask, they know
  1145. 43:29it and they're going to give it to you.
  1146. 43:31And if they don't know it, then you can
  1147. 43:32estimate. But if you don't ask and start
  1148. 43:35estimating and they know that number,
  1149. 43:36you're going to look silly cuz you're
  1150. 43:38going to be estimating and you're going
  1151. 43:39to be Of course, you're going to be
  1152. 43:41wrong compared to someone who has the
  1153. 43:42real number in their minds and that's
  1154. 43:44just going to look silly. That just
  1155. 43:45makes you look bad. Now, if they don't
  1156. 43:48know, then you can estimate because both
  1157. 43:50of you don't know and you just look
  1158. 43:51smart cuz you're
  1159. 43:53calculating a number from scratch.
  1160. 43:54You're inventing a number from scratch.
  1161. 43:56Okay?
  1162. 43:57Now,
  1163. 43:58one question that people ask us a lot is
  1164. 44:01when do you ask? Do you necessarily need
  1165. 44:04to ask right now after the structure?
  1166. 44:07And this is preferable. If you want to
  1167. 44:09ask before the structure, you might get
  1168. 44:12the interviewer a little bit confused,
  1169. 44:13but that is generally fine. If you want
  1170. 44:16to ask during the calculations
  1171. 44:18afterwards, it's a little bit worse
  1172. 44:21because you you kind of show to the
  1173. 44:23interviewer that you'll start working
  1174. 44:25without knowing all of the numbers and
  1175. 44:27having all of the ingredients, which is
  1176. 44:29a little bit weird, but it's also fine.
  1177. 44:31The timing of the questions is not that
  1178. 44:33important. Okay? Just make sure that if
  1179. 44:37you get a new number during your
  1180. 44:38calculations and you need to change your
  1181. 44:40structure, you will stop and you will do
  1182. 44:42this explicitly. So, "Oh, so this means
  1183. 44:45that I need to change my structure in
  1184. 44:46this and this and this way." And then
  1185. 44:48you do it. All right? Now, in this case,
  1186. 44:51the only question that I would ask, the
  1187. 44:53only thing that's missing here is I want
  1188. 44:55to know if we're selling something else
  1189. 44:57other than only cups of coffee. And the
  1190. 45:00interviewer will tell me, "No, we're
  1191. 45:01only selling cups of coffee." Okay? Now,
  1192. 45:04let's get to step number three,
  1193. 45:06calculating.
  1194. 45:07As I told you before, mental math and
  1195. 45:11being really quick and being a genius
  1196. 45:13calculator is something that is
  1197. 45:16secondary in case interviews.
  1198. 45:18Interviewers don't really care that much
  1199. 45:21if you can, you know, divide 3,000 by 17
  1200. 45:26in a split second. They really care that
  1201. 45:29you are precise and they really care
  1202. 45:31that you're efficient. So, you've got to
  1203. 45:34be aware of that trade-off between
  1204. 45:35precision and efficiency. All right? And
  1205. 45:38you've got to find the soft spot for
  1206. 45:40you. You've got to make sure that you're
  1207. 45:41precise and then you add efficiency to
  1208. 45:44your process. If there's a faster way,
  1209. 45:46you use the faster way. If rounding will
  1210. 45:49be a lot better, it will not change the
  1211. 45:51result a lot, then you will round or you
  1212. 45:53will request to round. Okay? This is how
  1213. 45:57it goes. Don't worry about it too much,
  1214. 46:00but of course make sure that you're not
  1215. 46:01making a ton of mistakes. And if you can
  1216. 46:04add efficiency, go ahead and add
  1217. 46:06efficiency. Now, what a lot of people
  1218. 46:09worry about, and you might be worrying
  1219. 46:11about right now, is what if I make a
  1220. 46:12mistake? And many people think that this
  1221. 46:15means that they've lost the job and
  1222. 46:17whatever. And most of the times it's not
  1223. 46:19a problem. If you do only one mistake in
  1224. 46:22the interview, the interviewer is just
  1225. 46:23going to brush it off and say it's all
  1226. 46:25right, everyone makes mistakes. Happens
  1227. 46:27all the time. But, if you do it often,
  1228. 46:31that is a problem. We want to avoid any
  1229. 46:33mistakes, okay? But, if you do them
  1230. 46:35often, it's a really bad problem cuz the
  1231. 46:37interviewer is going to be annoyed, and
  1232. 46:39they're going to think that you're
  1233. 46:40careless and reckless, and that you
  1234. 46:43might make those mistakes in a important
  1235. 46:47conference, and not like important
  1236. 46:50conference room, and important meeting.
  1237. 46:52Might not check your numbers well, and
  1238. 46:53you might not check other people's
  1239. 46:55numbers well, and so that's not really
  1240. 46:56good. So, if you make a mistake, just
  1241. 47:00follow on, and do a great job in the
  1242. 47:02rest of the case, the interviewer won't
  1243. 47:04care. If you are practicing, and you
  1244. 47:06notice that you're making a lot of
  1245. 47:07mistakes, then you've got to solve that
  1246. 47:09problem, okay? And in my opinion, I'm
  1247. 47:12going to be quick here cuz this is not
  1248. 47:13key, but in my opinion, the best way to
  1249. 47:16fix that problem is before you do any
  1250. 47:19math, any math that is a little bit more
  1251. 47:22complicated, you do a quick reality
  1252. 47:25check before you run the numbers. So,
  1253. 47:27like 28 /
  1254. 47:306. All right, you know that 28 is 7 * 4,
  1255. 47:33so you know it's close to 4. But, then
  1256. 47:36you do the right math afterwards. Now,
  1257. 47:39you know that should be close to 4, but
  1258. 47:41it should be a little bit more, and then
  1259. 47:42you know, do the calculation, you get to
  1260. 47:44the right number. All right?
  1261. 47:46Now, let's move on to the actual
  1262. 47:48calculations in this case. So, step
  1263. 47:52number one, I'm going to find the profit
  1264. 47:54per cup of coffee. And that is 3.75 - 1,
  1265. 47:58that's 2.75.
  1266. 48:00Step number two, I'm going to find what
  1267. 48:02is two years worth of fixed costs plus
  1268. 48:05the investments. So, that's 2 * 200,000
  1269. 48:09+ 150,000.
  1270. 48:112 * 200,000 is 400,000
  1271. 48:14+ 150 is 550,000.
  1272. 48:18Now, step number three, 550,000 / 2.75.
  1273. 48:23So,
  1274. 48:24first I'm going to
  1275. 48:25quickly see this as 600,000 / 3. Both
  1276. 48:29numbers are close
  1277. 48:30to that, so it should be around 200,000.
  1278. 48:33Now, I'm going to actually divide 550 by
  1279. 48:36275
  1280. 48:39to get to this number and
  1281. 48:41it seems like 550 / 275 is two,
  1282. 48:45actually. So, the number really is
  1283. 48:48200,000.
  1284. 48:49And so, this is the number of cups of
  1285. 48:51coffee that we need to break even in two
  1286. 48:54years.
  1287. 48:55200,000, yes.
  1288. 48:57And now,
  1289. 48:59we're moving on to step number four,
  1290. 49:01which is getting insights and leading
  1291. 49:04from them, finding next steps.
  1292. 49:06Keep in mind that this is the most
  1293. 49:09important step in an analysis question.
  1294. 49:12And not only from a case interview
  1295. 49:14perspective, but also from a consulting
  1296. 49:17job perspective. Because this is what
  1297. 49:19makes consultants difference. It's what
  1298. 49:22makes their job so valuable to the
  1299. 49:24client. It's what makes McKinsey's
  1300. 49:26projects so expensive. It's because they
  1301. 49:30give guidance to the client. They tell
  1302. 49:32them what to do to get the most value
  1303. 49:34out of their company, right? And
  1304. 49:36basically, what you're doing in this
  1305. 49:37step is
  1306. 49:39telling the interviewer what that number
  1307. 49:43you got to means to the case and what
  1308. 49:46should be done based on it. And you're
  1309. 49:49also telling them any other interesting
  1310. 49:51insight that you see from everything
  1311. 49:52that you did that might help get to an
  1312. 49:54answer to the case question.
  1313. 49:56What you're showing is that you're not
  1314. 49:58the one that's going to sit and wait for
  1315. 50:00guidance once you're done. You are the
  1316. 50:02one who knows how to use that number,
  1317. 50:04and you know how to guide yourself and
  1318. 50:06the project using it. And you, because
  1319. 50:09of that, are the person that people will
  1320. 50:10look for when they need guidance.
  1321. 50:13This is a skill, as I said before, that
  1322. 50:15everyone in a consulting engagement must
  1323. 50:17have. It's expected that you're able to
  1324. 50:20do this, and this is why it's tested in
  1325. 50:24the case interview. Now, you're going to
  1326. 50:26do this in three steps. I know this is
  1327. 50:28step four, but I'm going to divide it up
  1328. 50:30in three more steps.
  1329. 50:31Step number one, you're going to compare
  1330. 50:33the number that you got to to some other
  1331. 50:36number. And
  1332. 50:38you're going to do that to have a basis
  1333. 50:41to say if it's too high or too low, too
  1334. 50:43much or too little, or whatever, right?
  1335. 50:45And you're going to have to find what
  1336. 50:46that comparison is. Number two,
  1337. 50:49you're going to say what this means from
  1338. 50:53the case question point of view. So,
  1339. 50:55what does this number mean to the entire
  1340. 50:57engagement that we're doing, to the case
  1341. 50:59question that the interviewer told us
  1342. 51:01right in the beginning of the case? And
  1343. 51:03number three, you're going to say what
  1344. 51:05you and the client and the team should
  1345. 51:08do next based on that. Okay?
  1346. 51:11Now, let's get to what I would say in
  1347. 51:14this case.
  1348. 51:15Well, basically, I would look at this
  1349. 51:17200k and I would say, "Oh, okay, so
  1350. 51:20200,000 cups of coffee in 2 years."
  1351. 51:22If we assume 350 days in a year, that's
  1352. 51:26around 300 cups per day.
  1353. 51:29And if we assume that the coffee shop is
  1354. 51:32open
  1355. 51:3315 hours a day,
  1356. 51:35uh that would mean 20 cups an hour, or
  1357. 51:38one cup every 3 minutes. And that's not
  1358. 51:41only in peak times, but also like 10:00
  1359. 51:44p.m. when not that many people drink
  1360. 51:46coffee.
  1361. 51:47This looks way too optimistic in my
  1362. 51:49opinion. Like I'm thinking of looking at
  1363. 51:51a coffee shop in a in the airport. And
  1364. 51:53of course, there's a lot of movement,
  1365. 51:56but not necessarily all of them are
  1366. 51:58buying coffee. And honestly, very little
  1367. 52:01of them are buying only coffee. And
  1368. 52:04since this is only one location, we
  1369. 52:05can't really assume that we can take
  1370. 52:07market share from all of the airport,
  1371. 52:09only from the surroundings.
  1372. 52:11So, it makes sense to think of one or
  1373. 52:14two specific coffee shops that would be
  1374. 52:16close to this one.
  1375. 52:17And we can only
  1376. 52:19get the customers who care about the
  1377. 52:21quality of coffee, which are obviously
  1378. 52:23not all of them.
  1379. 52:25And customers who don't want anything
  1380. 52:26else. That are not going into the coffee
  1381. 52:29shop and asking for, you know, a cup of
  1382. 52:31coffee and something to eat or whatever.
  1383. 52:33Cuz
  1384. 52:34they want to buy everything at the same
  1385. 52:36place. So, that's not a very large
  1386. 52:38fraction of the customers. I would not
  1387. 52:40trust that we can easily get to those
  1388. 52:43200,000 cups of coffee in 2 years. Now,
  1389. 52:47if I were to do something next, it would
  1390. 52:49probably be see if we can sell something
  1391. 52:52else in order to increase the average
  1392. 52:54ticket of each customer. So, for
  1393. 52:56example, we could sell coffee beans,
  1394. 52:59bags of those coffee beans, so that
  1395. 53:01people can take home to to brew their
  1396. 53:04own coffee or so that they can give away
  1397. 53:06as gifts with a very high value added.
  1398. 53:09Like if it's if these are really high
  1399. 53:11quality gifts that are well sourced
  1400. 53:12straight from the farm or whatever, we
  1401. 53:14can probably package those as gifts and
  1402. 53:17sell them at a high price. And this
  1403. 53:19might make the business worthy, but it
  1404. 53:21doesn't look too promising to me from
  1405. 53:24the perspective of only selling cups of
  1406. 53:27coffee.
  1407. 53:28So, now you might be asking yourself,
  1408. 53:30what happens next? Like we're doing a
  1409. 53:32real case here. What happens next?
  1410. 53:35If this were a candidate-led case, then
  1411. 53:38the interviewer would just allow you to
  1412. 53:40follow on with your next step, and maybe
  1413. 53:43give you some data for that one next
  1414. 53:45step. They might question your
  1415. 53:48assumption, your conclusion, and then
  1416. 53:51you can discuss that conclusion with
  1417. 53:52them.
  1418. 53:53Or the interviewer might just say,
  1419. 53:54"Time's up. I want a recommendation."
  1420. 53:57And you might have at least a better
  1421. 53:59recommendation to give than before
  1422. 54:02before doing the analysis, since you
  1423. 54:04already know what that number means to
  1424. 54:06your case question.
  1425. 54:07If this were an interviewer-led case,
  1426. 54:10then
  1427. 54:11the interviewer might be satisfied and
  1428. 54:14just ask you a new question, cuz you
  1429. 54:16fulfilled everything they wanted to
  1430. 54:17know. The interviewer might be curious
  1431. 54:19and impressed with your follow-up, and
  1432. 54:22ask you for a follow-up question. Like,
  1433. 54:24for example, "What other kinds of things
  1434. 54:26can we sell other than coffee bean bags,
  1435. 54:29so that we can include increase the
  1436. 54:30average ticket and make this work?" Or
  1437. 54:32maybe they could ask you, "What are
  1438. 54:34other places that we could place this
  1439. 54:35kiosk if we're able to make it
  1440. 54:38profitable? Give me some ideas."
  1441. 54:41The most common mix is the most common
  1442. 54:44type would be a mix between the
  1443. 54:48interviewer-led and the candidate-led
  1444. 54:49interview, where the interviewer might
  1445. 54:52be satisfied, like it's a candidate-led
  1446. 54:55case generally, but the interviewer is
  1447. 54:57satisfied with what you show them, and
  1448. 54:59they need to see other types of things.
  1449. 55:00They need to test other stuff in your
  1450. 55:03skills, and so they'll just ask you a
  1451. 55:05new question, or tell you to go a
  1452. 55:07different way, or whatever. And that's
  1453. 55:09that's the most common path, honestly,
  1454. 55:11unless it's a McKinsey first-round case,
  1455. 55:13where they have the questions lined up.
  1456. 55:15This is probably how it would go.
  1457. 55:17Now, if this were a real project, then
  1458. 55:20after the analysis, you have tested the
  1459. 55:23hypothesis you wanted, you go back to
  1460. 55:25the beginning of your project, and see
  1461. 55:28what this means to the big picture,
  1462. 55:29create those next steps, and go do them.
  1463. 55:32You'd probably present this to someone,
  1464. 55:34to the manager, to the partner, discuss
  1465. 55:36those next steps that you came up with,
  1466. 55:38and then go do them. And in this case,
  1467. 55:41it would probably be, as you saw,
  1468. 55:43finding ways to improve the average
  1469. 55:45ticket so that we can make this business
  1470. 55:47work.
  1471. 55:48All right, this is it for right now.
  1472. 55:51Now, I'd highly recommend you go check
  1473. 55:54out the drill videos and work through
  1474. 55:57the step-by-step process and internalize
  1475. 56:00it. Internalize the technique to create
  1476. 56:03structures by yourself, also, so that
  1477. 56:06you can be able to create structures for
  1478. 56:08any case and never again get stuck in an
  1479. 56:11analytical question. Cuz I know that
  1480. 56:13there's no worse feeling than blanking
  1481. 56:16out in the middle of an analytical
  1482. 56:18question case. Okay?
  1483. 56:20Right, I'll see you in the next video.

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