Case Interview Fundamentals: Lesson 24 [Quantitative Analyses: The 4-step approach] — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hello everyone, what's up? This is Julio
- 0:02speaking as I said in the previous
- 0:04video. Welcome to the quantitative
- 0:06analysis module of case interview
- 0:08fundamentals. What you're going to learn
- 0:10in this video is what an analysis is
- 0:13from a case interview question
- 0:15perspective and from the consulting job
- 0:18perspective. You're going to learn what
- 0:20you're being tested on, what your
- 0:22mistakes and your hits tell your
- 0:24interviewer about your day-to-day skills
- 0:26as a consultant, and what it tells them
- 0:28about what they can expect from you as a
- 0:30consultant. You're going to learn a
- 0:32four-step approach to make sure that you
- 0:34touch on everything that the interviewer
- 0:37wants to see during a quantitative
- 0:40analysis question regardless of what
- 0:43question they give you, what industry,
- 0:45what type, how hard it is. And you're
- 0:47going to learn a technique to create
- 0:49structures. It pisses me off that so
- 0:53much content out there, case books,
- 0:54videos, YouTube videos, everything just
- 0:58gives you an analysis question and then
- 0:59shows you the answer as if it's simple.
- 1:02And the truth is to most of us it isn't.
- 1:05There are techniques and there are
- 1:07skills that one can learn and it is
- 1:10possible to learn, it isn't a God-given
- 1:13skill. And I'm going to show you
- 1:15what these techniques are so that you
- 1:17can create structures by yourself. So
- 1:20let's jump right into what is a
- 1:22quantitative analysis from a case
- 1:24interview perspective. So a quantitative
- 1:27analysis question is when an interviewer
- 1:29gives you data and asks you to calculate
- 1:32a number or to calculate a conclusion
- 1:35for example, such as which of these
- 1:38options is better, does this investment
- 1:40make sense, etc. Let me show you some
- 1:43examples of what analysis questions
- 1:45could be.
- 1:47Take a look at these. Calculate revenue
- 1:49synergies from introducing your
- 1:50competitors products into Starbucks
- 1:53stores after an acquisition.
- 1:55Calculate cost savings in R&D, research
- 1:58and development after implementing this
- 2:00new process. Or given this table of
- 2:03data, how much will it cost to improve
- 2:05the quality of this university's dorm
- 2:07rooms?
- 2:08Now, you can expect to have
- 2:11one or two of these in every case that
- 2:14you do. Every interviewer is going to
- 2:15test your quant skills some way, and
- 2:18this is
- 2:19usually one of them.
- 2:21You might say that these questions are
- 2:23similar to estimation questions because
- 2:26well, you got to calculate stuff. And
- 2:28the difference from estimations is that
- 2:31in estimation questions,
- 2:33they won't give you any data. Or they'll
- 2:35give you a little bit of data, but
- 2:37they'll ask you to estimate stuff and
- 2:39you'll have to come up with a lot of the
- 2:40assumptions.
- 2:41In or maybe they will even give you the
- 2:44assumptions, but only after you
- 2:46structure. Now, in quantitative analysis
- 2:49questions, they
- 2:51give you some data to begin with.
- 2:53Just a heads up, it's hardly ever all
- 2:56the data you need. So, almost every
- 2:58single time you need to ask for more
- 3:00data. But yeah, that's the main
- 3:01difference that you're going to see. And
- 3:04a difference that's not conclusive, but
- 3:06it's helpful and it works most of the
- 3:09times is that estimations are often
- 3:11market sizings and they often start with
- 3:14can you estimate a number for something.
- 3:17And in this case, they ask you to
- 3:19usually calculate a number for something
- 3:21and it's usually not a market size.
- 3:23Although it could be. Could be They
- 3:25could ask you to calculate a market size
- 3:26and give you a few numbers and you have
- 3:28to come up with others. And that would
- 3:31really be a gray area between estimation
- 3:33questions and quantitative analysis
- 3:34questions. And
- 3:36honestly, there isn't that much of a
- 3:38difference between them if you look at
- 3:41them from a pure analytical perspective.
- 3:45All right?
- 3:46Now,
- 3:47I want to address a common misconception
- 3:50here. Many, many, many people call these
- 3:52questions math questions.
- 3:55And I want to break this myth down.
- 3:59These are not math questions, and here's
- 4:01why. So, a math question implies that
- 4:04the most important part of the question
- 4:07is the math, the actual calculation of
- 4:09the numerical answer and getting to the
- 4:12right number, like you would in a eighth
- 4:15grade math test. And this is not the
- 4:19answer at all. Calculating the number
- 4:21does not make you a consultant, it makes
- 4:23you a calculator.
- 4:25The problem-solving skills
- 4:28that you need as a consultant are all
- 4:30about how you get to the number and what
- 4:33you do with it. All right? So, this
- 4:35brings me to what is an analysis from a
- 4:39consultant's perspective. This is going
- 4:40to make you understand so much more why
- 4:43I'm saying that these are not math
- 4:45questions. I understand that that's an
- 4:48easy way to identify them when you're
- 4:50talking about them, but it also brings
- 4:52along a lot of baggage, and it makes it
- 4:54seem like the math is the most important
- 4:56part. So, I don't want you calling them
- 4:58that and getting yourself in the wrong
- 5:00mindset, okay? So, what's an analysis
- 5:02from a consultant's perspective?
- 5:05Conceptually, what you're doing in a
- 5:07consulting project is coming up with
- 5:10several hypotheses and then testing
- 5:13them. For example, you have a hypothesis
- 5:15that your client's addressable market is
- 5:18going to reach 100 million dollars in 5
- 5:21years, or that their customers are
- 5:24currently unsatisfied with their
- 5:25product, but the customers are buying
- 5:28anyway because they don't have any other
- 5:29option. Or that you if your client and a
- 5:33specific target merge, they can save
- 5:36half a billion dollars in procurement
- 5:38costs by buying in larger books. And
- 5:41[snorts]
- 5:42you're going to use data to test these
- 5:44hypotheses. And you're going to gather
- 5:47this data from research, from your
- 5:49client's databases, etc. But databases
- 5:52alone are of no use. You can't just look
- 5:55at green data falling like the Matrix
- 5:58guys and take conclusions from them. You
- 6:00need to model them into simpler
- 6:02information, which synthesizes that
- 6:04data, so that you can
- 6:07actually process it in your mind. But
- 6:09these numbers alone still don't tell you
- 6:11anything. If I tell you that your
- 6:13client's revenues are $20 billion, this
- 6:16will have completely opposite meanings
- 6:19if last year's revenues were $18 billion
- 6:22or if they were $22 billion.
- 6:24Or if I tell you that the market size is
- 6:2640 billion or if the market size is 400
- 6:29billion. It's the different The meaning
- 6:31is completely different. And so the
- 6:33lesson here is that you also need to
- 6:35compare that number to something else in
- 6:38order to make it meaningful and in order
- 6:40to prove or disprove any hypothesis.
- 6:43And the whole process of testing this
- 6:46hypothesis or all of these hypotheses
- 6:49using data, all the way from figuring
- 6:52out what comparison you're going to
- 6:54make, then gathering the data, then
- 6:56modeling it, then getting to a number,
- 6:58and then actually doing the comparison,
- 7:01this is what a quantitative analysis is
- 7:03from the consulting job perspective.
- 7:06Basically, from all this, what you can
- 7:09understand is that if you're doing a
- 7:12quantitative analysis in a consulting
- 7:14project, you need to have two main
- 7:16skills, the quantitative skills and the
- 7:19communication skills.
- 7:22I will tell you why in a second, but
- 7:24here's what they are. The quantitative
- 7:25skills is basically knowing what
- 7:28comparisons you need to make to get to
- 7:31that conclusion and where those bars are
- 7:34to know if something is true or is
- 7:35false, what numbers from the real world
- 7:38you need to be able to get to those
- 7:40comparisons, and how exactly you can
- 7:43model them to turn raw data into the
- 7:47information that you need. On the soft
- 7:49skill side, you need to be able to
- 7:51discuss on a conceptual level what your
- 7:55what your analysis is. You need to be
- 7:56able to discuss it before doing it, and
- 7:58you need to be able to discuss it on a
- 8:00conceptual level after doing it, so that
- 8:02you can talk and explain and get input
- 8:07from the team and from the client before
- 8:10and after running the analysis. Now,
- 8:13the reason you need the quantitative
- 8:15skills is obvious. If you don't know
- 8:17what are the comparisons you need to
- 8:19make, you can't make them. If you don't
- 8:21know what numbers you need from the real
- 8:23world, you won't get the numbers cuz you
- 8:25don't know what they are. If you don't
- 8:26know exactly what you need to do with
- 8:27them, you're going to do random stuff to
- 8:29them, and you're going to get to
- 8:30inaccurate numbers.
- 8:32Now, why do you need to be able to
- 8:34discuss it if you are already able to
- 8:36get to the right number?
- 8:38So,
- 8:40there are
- 8:41several reasons for that, right? Reason
- 8:44number one, if you discuss your analysis
- 8:46with your team before doing it, you
- 8:48might figure out that something in your
- 8:51thought process is wrong, and you need
- 8:53to fix it, you need to run an analysis
- 8:54differently. You might figure out that
- 8:57the analysis doesn't need to be done for
- 8:59some reason, or there's an easier way to
- 9:02do it, and so you end up saving time.
- 9:04And one of the worst things you can do
- 9:06as a consultant, who of course is not
- 9:09screwing up badly, is wasting client's
- 9:11time. All consultant projects are under
- 9:15time constraint. If you waste someone's
- 9:17time for a week running an analysis that
- 9:20didn't need to be run, you are all going
- 9:22to have a nightless week. It's going to
- 9:25suck suck for everyone. All right? And
- 9:27your client's going to be pissed, and
- 9:28you're not going to get to the results
- 9:29that you want. But there are other
- 9:31reasons for it. Another reason for being
- 9:34able to discuss the analysis on a
- 9:35conceptual level is that you can use
- 9:37more brainpower in the analysis and in
- 9:40the project because if you're not only
- 9:42your brain working on designing the
- 9:44analysis, it's everyone else's, you can
- 9:46be more precise, you can do better
- 9:48analysis, you can get to a better
- 9:50number, you can also do it more
- 9:51efficiently.
- 9:52Another reason yet for that is that so
- 9:55you can have everyone on board so they
- 9:57can vouch your analysis. Basically, an
- 9:59idea that I'm trying to give you here is
- 10:01that when you're doing a consulting
- 10:02project
- 10:04every single analysis that you do, this
- 10:06might be a bold statement, but every
- 10:07single analysis that you do
- 10:09someone will be against it. Some
- 10:11stakeholders are going to want one
- 10:13answer, other stakeholders are going to
- 10:14want another. And
- 10:16unless you are able to explain very
- 10:19logically why the number that you got to
- 10:22is true and it's undoubtedly true
- 10:26they're going to bash it and the
- 10:27discussion's going to turn political and
- 10:29not logical and you're not going to get
- 10:32your point across.
- 10:33The other person's just going to say, "I
- 10:35have experience in this industry. I know
- 10:36what you're talking about, you don't.
- 10:38Why would I trust your number?" Right?
- 10:40So, this is why you need to be able to
- 10:42communicate and discuss your assumption
- 10:45on a high conceptual level, not only you
- 10:48need to be able to perform it
- 10:50accurately. Okay? Now that you
- 10:53understand what skills you need to have
- 10:55and why you need to have them and how
- 10:57you're going to use them, I'm going to
- 10:59get exactly into the concrete situation
- 11:01we're simulating cuz that's going to
- 11:03make it a lot more clear to you why and
- 11:06how you should perform in those case
- 11:08interviews.
- 11:09We're simulating in a case interview a
- 11:12discussion about an analysis that you
- 11:15are having as an associate with a
- 11:17manager or partner before doing an
- 11:19analysis. Then we're simulating you
- 11:22doing the analysis and you're getting
- 11:25the data
- 11:26that you would get from the client or
- 11:29from the market or whatever, you're
- 11:31getting it from the interviewer. Instead
- 11:33of placing it all in Excel or FKL or
- 11:36whatever data processing tool you're
- 11:39going to use, you're going to use your
- 11:41pen and paper to do math. And then
- 11:43you're going to discuss the results with
- 11:45said manager or partner, which in the
- 11:47case is the interviewer, right?
- 11:49The other thing that we could be
- 11:51simulating is this very same thing with
- 11:52the client instead of a manager or
- 11:54partner. So you discuss analysis you're
- 11:56going to run with the client. They might
- 11:58like it, they might dislike it, but
- 12:01will need to agree on a conceptual level
- 12:03to what you're doing, right? And so
- 12:06given all of this,
- 12:08what I want you to understand is
- 12:11what are the skills that they're testing
- 12:14for in these situations? What skills are
- 12:16necessary in the situation that we're
- 12:18simulating and in all of the situations
- 12:21that
- 12:22will use quantitative analysis in the
- 12:25consulting job. Basically, number one,
- 12:29they're testing to see if you know what
- 12:31comparisons to do. They want to know
- 12:33that you can take conclusions from the
- 12:36data.
- 12:37Basically, that is seeing if you can
- 12:40have a discussion in the end of your
- 12:42analysis. They're seeing if you can
- 12:45interpret the number that you got and
- 12:47that
- 12:49you can lead from it. You can get to the
- 12:51next steps. This is step number four of
- 12:54the analytical process, which I'm going
- 12:57to show you the steps in a little bit.
- 12:59Because
- 13:00if you don't know what are the
- 13:02comparisons you're going to do and
- 13:05if you don't know how to interpret the
- 13:07data, when you need to design the
- 13:09analysis instead of the interviewer
- 13:11asking you to calculate something, you
- 13:13won't be able to because
- 13:15if you don't know what comparison you
- 13:16need to do, I want to compare, you know,
- 13:19the market size of this product to the
- 13:22market size of the other product that we
- 13:24have or whatever. If you don't know
- 13:26that, then how are you going to know
- 13:28that you need to calculate the market
- 13:29size? You won't. So, that's why they're
- 13:31testing this.
- 13:32Number two, they want to know that you
- 13:34know how to process the numbers. That is
- 13:37basically step number two, structuring
- 13:39your analysis. Because
- 13:42once you get all of that raw data, and
- 13:45trust me, it's a ton of data,
- 13:48how are you going to model it? What are
- 13:50you going to do to each of your numbers
- 13:52to get to the answer? If you don't know
- 13:54how to do this by yourself, then you
- 13:57can't be trusted alone with a computer,
- 13:59the data, and the Excel that you're
- 14:01going to get to an answer, right? Number
- 14:03three, they're testing to see if you
- 14:05know what data you need. Basically,
- 14:07what's going to happen here in so many
- 14:10cases is that the interviewer is going
- 14:12to give you a few pieces of data, but
- 14:14they're not going to give you all of the
- 14:16pieces of data that you need. And they
- 14:18want to see you asking for the data
- 14:22so that they can tell that you know what
- 14:24data you need.
- 14:26Right? They gave you some pieces of
- 14:27data, and that's mostly to guide you in
- 14:29what direction you should go. But they
- 14:31want to see that you can understand what
- 14:34data is missing, and you can look for it
- 14:36somehow. In this case, asking it. It's
- 14:39very similar to
- 14:41the GMAT data sufficiency questions,
- 14:44because you need to be able to tell
- 14:46whether you have enough data to get to a
- 14:48conclusion or not.
- 14:49Basically, this skill derives from you
- 14:52knowing the structure that you're going
- 14:53to need to use and you having the
- 14:55business sense to know what extra data
- 14:59you might need. So, what other factors
- 15:01might be affecting this number that are
- 15:03not obvious right now. And then you ask
- 15:05about those pieces of data to the
- 15:06interviewer.
- 15:08Next, number four, they want to know
- 15:10that you know how to communicate the
- 15:13structure in English rather than in
- 15:16Excel or in
- 15:18numbers or only drawings. So, that you
- 15:20can discuss it like we talked about
- 15:22before without wasting time and so that
- 15:25you can
- 15:26prove that what you've done makes sense
- 15:28rather than being a guess or being
- 15:31wrong, right? What you're going to find
- 15:33in consulting is that
- 15:36a lot of the work is convincing or
- 15:40maybe as much of the work in an analysis
- 15:42that is not uh what everyone wants it to
- 15:45be as much as convincing as it is
- 15:47analyzing, right?
- 15:49And what you might have noticed from
- 15:51these skills is that math isn't exactly
- 15:56in there, right? They do want to know
- 15:59that you are able to do quick and easy
- 16:01math and that you're not going to screw
- 16:03up with numbers. You're going to be
- 16:04dealing with numbers a lot. So, you need
- 16:05to be able to do some calculations in
- 16:07your mind in your head and quickly. But,
- 16:10given all of these situations, math is
- 16:13not a priority.
- 16:15That is why so many times you see people
- 16:18saying, "Oh, I made a tiny mistake. The
- 16:19interviewer didn't care and we moved
- 16:21on." If you make many mistakes, that's a
- 16:23red flag. If you don't catch your own
- 16:25mistakes, that's a red flag. But, math
- 16:28is essentially secondary. Excel's going
- 16:30to be doing most of the math in your
- 16:31consulting job. And yes, you need to be
- 16:33fluent with numbers, but that's not key
- 16:37to the analytical part of a consultant's
- 16:39work.
- 16:41And I'm going to show you
- 16:42a wrong answers only version
- 16:45of an analysis question and I'm going to
- 16:47show you what the wrong answers mean to
- 16:50an interviewer.
- 16:52So, imagine this is the question that we
- 16:56get in an analysis question in a case
- 16:58interview.
- 16:59So, imagine we are working on a
- 17:01potential merger and our client is the
- 17:03manufacturer of a product that is sold
- 17:06in Starbucks. And of course, the client
- 17:09wants to acquire a competitor. You're
- 17:11working on the revenue synergies front
- 17:13of the project and you get to a moment
- 17:16where you will calculate the potential
- 17:18increase in revenues from adding the
- 17:21competitors products to next to your own
- 17:24in Starbucks shelves. And we have a few
- 17:27pieces of data for you here. We know
- 17:28that we currently sell in 3,000
- 17:32Starbucks stores. Our products sell for
- 17:36four seven units per day. And we can
- 17:39expect per store, of course, and we can
- 17:41expect the competitors products to sell
- 17:43at the same rate.
- 17:44Okay.
- 17:45And now let's say that I ask my
- 17:47interviewer, "All right, so
- 17:50do we know the price at which the
- 17:53competitors products are going to be
- 17:54sold?" And let's say the interviewer
- 17:56says $2 per product. "And do we know how
- 17:59many days the Starbucks stores are open
- 18:02a year?" And let's say the interviewer
- 18:04tells me it's 300. Okay. So,
- 18:08I'm going to do some math here. 7 * 300
- 18:12is 2.1 thousand * 2, that's 4.2
- 18:16thousand. 4.2 thousand * 3,000, that
- 18:19gives me 12.6 million. So, 12.6 million.
- 18:23And let's say that I know what the
- 18:25target company revenues are and I'll
- 18:28say, "Oh, target revenues would grow 30%
- 18:31with that, so the acquisition seems like
- 18:33a great idea." And etc. etc. I say other
- 18:36things as well.
- 18:38Do you see the problem here? The
- 18:40interviewer has no idea what I just did.
- 18:42The interviewer just knows that I asked
- 18:44for some pieces of data. And I did some
- 18:47calculations, which he has no idea what
- 18:50they were,
- 18:51where they were going to, what I did.
- 18:53And the number might even be right, and
- 18:56he would only know that the number is
- 18:58right because he is the interviewer, he
- 19:00designed that question. But in a real
- 19:02case, in a real project situation, what
- 19:05happens is
- 19:06this guy did not create the question.
- 19:08He's overseeing you solve a real-life
- 19:11problem. And when you get to him with
- 19:15answer that is just a number
- 19:17and you don't at all explain what you
- 19:19did, you don't explain what you're going
- 19:21to do before,
- 19:22he can never know
- 19:24whether you were right or wrong. If he
- 19:28can't know if you're right or wrong, you
- 19:29can't convince him.
- 19:31And so he has to assume that you're
- 19:33wrong.
- 19:34And someone else that has to assume that
- 19:36you're wrong is the guy in the client's
- 19:38side that doesn't like your answer.
- 19:41They will say that you probably didn't
- 19:43consider a ton of stuff that they did
- 19:45consider. And they can only assume that
- 19:48you forgot and that you're wrong. And
- 19:50also from a case interview perspective,
- 19:52there's a problem with that because
- 19:54they might know that you were right in
- 19:58that one cuz you got the number right.
- 19:59But since they have no idea how you did
- 20:02that, they can't be sure
- 20:05that you would do everything right and
- 20:07get you the right number in a different
- 20:08case. They can't know if you were just
- 20:11lucky. You need to show your work. So
- 20:14this is why we create a structure
- 20:17when solving an analysis.
- 20:19Now, there's also another problem with
- 20:23the answer that I just gave you.
- 20:24So
- 20:25there's something you might not have
- 20:27noticed that I didn't do, but I didn't
- 20:29ask the interviewer if there was going
- 20:31to be any cannibalization
- 20:33on the units that we currently sell.
- 20:36So let's say we currently sell seven
- 20:38units per day. Our competitor that once
- 20:41we place them there is also going to
- 20:42sell seven units per day, but since the
- 20:45consumers are the same that are buying,
- 20:47some of them are not going to buy our
- 20:48product and buy only the competitors. So
- 20:50we can expect our sales to decrease to
- 20:53[snorts] four units per day or
- 20:54something.
- 20:55If that happens, then that changes the
- 20:58revenue synergies and I should have
- 20:59taken that into consideration.
- 21:01Another thing that I could have asked is
- 21:04are we going to be able to sell to
- 21:06Starbucks at a higher price since we are
- 21:08going to,
- 21:10you know,
- 21:11have more negotiation power with them
- 21:13cuz we're going to be selling more units
- 21:14to them.
- 21:15And
- 21:17in those two cases, the answer would be
- 21:19no. There would be no cannibalization
- 21:21and the price would not change. I only
- 21:24know this because I created this case. I
- 21:26created this case for this specific
- 21:28example. The case is in my mind. The
- 21:30answer is in my mind. It can be whatever
- 21:32I want and in this case it's those don't
- 21:34change. The fact that they don't affect
- 21:37the answer do not affect the fact that I
- 21:40need to ask about these things. Why?
- 21:44Because
- 21:45they show to my interviewer that if the
- 21:47case were different, then
- 21:50I would still have gotten it right. It
- 21:52doesn't matter that I got to the right
- 21:54number if I didn't consider a factor
- 21:57that does not play off in this case, but
- 21:59could have played off in this case.
- 22:02If I don't ask these questions, it shows
- 22:04to the interviewer that I can execute,
- 22:06but I can't think. The interviewer can't
- 22:08trust me with a problem that they don't
- 22:11fully understand and that they can't
- 22:14completely double-check my work.
- 22:17They will always know that I need
- 22:19someone who will save me, someone who
- 22:22will check my work and who will
- 22:25find the stuff that
- 22:28I need to be creative in order to
- 22:30consider,
- 22:31right? And
- 22:32so
- 22:34in the end, I won't be saving the
- 22:36managers and the partners time. I will
- 22:39be adding more work to their workload.
- 22:42And so they won't be able to manage as
- 22:44many projects as they wish they did and
- 22:46that will get them, you know, more
- 22:48money, more money to the firm and more
- 22:51happiness to the clients and whatever,
- 22:53right? And so
- 22:55they will be hiring if they hired me,
- 22:57they won't be hiring someone who helped
- 22:59them catch mistakes, who helped them
- 23:02solve problems. They're going to be
- 23:03hiring someone who will be making new
- 23:05mistakes and who will be creating
- 23:07problems for them.
- 23:09Now, I want you to consider this other
- 23:10potential answer. Let's say I tell the
- 23:12interviewer that I first want to find
- 23:15the revenues per store that we would
- 23:18have increased to the target's current
- 23:22revenues.
- 23:23And then I multiply that by the number
- 23:25of stores they would go in. And so that
- 23:27would give me
- 23:28the
- 23:29total revenue increase. And then I'd
- 23:31remove I'd account for a cannibalization
- 23:34of our own products. And then
- 23:36I would account for a potential price
- 23:38increase for both our products and the
- 23:40target's products given that we're now
- 23:42selling them more stuff. We might have
- 23:44more leverage in the negotiation.
- 23:47And then I ask them if they know what
- 23:49price our units and the competitors'
- 23:51units sell for.
- 23:53And if there might be a price difference
- 23:55if there is cannibalization expected and
- 23:58how many days the stores would be open
- 24:00in the year. Then I run the calculations
- 24:02like I did before and I tell them that
- 24:04the answer is 13 million or 12.6
- 24:07million. But I don't say anything
- 24:08afterwards.
- 24:10Right?
- 24:11The problem here is that
- 24:14I was not hired to give the interviewer
- 24:16a number.
- 24:17I was hired to solve the problem.
- 24:20And solving the problem doesn't mean
- 24:23getting to the number. It means
- 24:25>> [snorts]
- 24:26>> actually solving the problems that the
- 24:28project has. So what they would expect
- 24:31me to do in a real consulting project is
- 24:34get to this number, know exactly what to
- 24:36do next, and start doing it. And if that
- 24:40is
- 24:41finding the right people to communicate
- 24:43this number, then that would be finding
- 24:45the right people to communicate this
- 24:46number. If that would be finding if
- 24:49there would be cost savings given this
- 24:51volume increase or if there would be
- 24:53price increase given this volume
- 24:55increase, and figuring that out somehow,
- 24:57or if that would be finding out if there
- 24:59are capacity issues, or anything like
- 25:02that.
- 25:03That's what they want me to do.
- 25:05Or if it would even be just finding out
- 25:08what this 12.6 million means. That's
- 25:11what they're expecting me to do. They're
- 25:12not expecting me to give them a number.
- 25:15And if we're doing this project, and I
- 25:18get to this number on Wednesday, but I
- 25:20can only talk to the manager on Monday,
- 25:24they don't want me to waste 2.5 days.
- 25:26They want me to know exactly what to do.
- 25:29And hell, if I am the manager, I need to
- 25:32be able to tell them what to do, and I
- 25:34need to be able to do this now, because
- 25:35it's not such a hard skill.
- 25:37So, if you don't know how to do this
- 25:39when you're going in the consulting
- 25:41firm, they assume that you're never
- 25:43going to learn. So,
- 25:45conclusion, you want to show that you
- 25:48know how to interpret the number that
- 25:50you get to, and that you know what to do
- 25:53with it, and what other people should do
- 25:55with it as well. Now, let me show you
- 25:57what a right answer would look like.
- 25:59Let's say that the interviewer tells me,
- 26:01you know, the case question and all, and
- 26:03tells me the data, it's 3,000 stores.
- 26:06We currently sell seven units per day.
- 26:08We can expect the target to sell for the
- 26:10same amount of units. And so, I would
- 26:12tell them, "All right. So, first, what I
- 26:14would do is find our revenues per store,
- 26:17the revenues per store that the target
- 26:19would have. And that would be just
- 26:21finding the number of
- 26:23units per year that would be sold, and
- 26:24multiply that by the price per unit.
- 26:26Then, I would find the total revenue
- 26:30increase for the target by multiplying
- 26:32the revenues per store that I got by the
- 26:35number of stores. Then, I'd account for
- 26:38a cannibalization, so I would
- 26:40find what our revenue decrease would be,
- 26:42and remove that from the
- 26:44overall revenue increase.
- 26:46And then, I would account for a
- 26:48potential price increase, if there is
- 26:50any, given that we're now selling a lot
- 26:53more units to Starbucks, we might have
- 26:55more negotiation leverage. So, would it
- 26:58be okay if I asked you some questions
- 26:59right now? Let's say the interviewer
- 27:01says, "Yes." So, I'll tell them, "Okay,
- 27:03I'd like to know at what price do we
- 27:06expect our competitor to sell their
- 27:08products on average?" And let's say the
- 27:10interviewer tells me it's $2.
- 27:12And I ask them, "Is there a difference
- 27:14expected in price between what they sell
- 27:18and we sell right now, and what we would
- 27:20sell for given that we'd have more
- 27:23negotiation leverage?" And let's say
- 27:25they sell they tell me, "No, ignore
- 27:27that."
- 27:28And now I want to know, would there be
- 27:30cannibalization? Do we expect our
- 27:32products to sell less now that the
- 27:34target products are selling in the same
- 27:36shelf?" And let's say the interviewer
- 27:38tells me to ignore this as well. And
- 27:40then I asked about the number of days a
- 27:42Starbucks store is open in a year, and
- 27:43they tell me 300. Okay? Now, I'm going
- 27:46to multiply the number of units per day
- 27:50by the number of days in a year to get
- 27:52to the number of units in a store in a
- 27:54year. And so, that's 7 * 300, that's
- 27:572.1,000.
- 28:00Now, I want to multiply that by the
- 28:01price, so I can get to the revenues per
- 28:04store. And so, 2.1,000 * $2, that is
- 28:08$4.2,000
- 28:10per store per year.
- 28:12Now, I'm going to multiply that by the
- 28:13number of stores. So, that would give me
- 28:16the revenue increase in total. So,
- 28:184.2,000 * 3,000 is 12.6 million.
- 28:24And since there's no cannibalization
- 28:27and no price increase, uh that is the
- 28:30final answer, 12.6 million. And right
- 28:33now I don't know what the target
- 28:35revenues are, but I would like to know
- 28:37so that I can know
- 28:39like let's say that this is a 30%
- 28:41increase in the revenues. This seems
- 28:43like a really good idea of acquisition
- 28:46because we would acquire let's say we
- 28:48acquire them for a fair price
- 28:50but right off the bat we increase the
- 28:52revenues and therefore probably their
- 28:55value even even more than that by 30%.
- 28:58This is an amazing investment by all
- 29:00means.
- 29:01Now what I would do next is first find
- 29:05out what the target revenues are so that
- 29:07I can actually size the benefit.
- 29:09But then I try to figure out if there
- 29:11might be cost savings in the target's
- 29:15manufacturing process given that now
- 29:16they're going to manufacture more units.
- 29:18I would try to find out if there would
- 29:20be price increase given that now we're
- 29:23going to sell more to Starbucks. Even
- 29:26though you told me to ignore that I
- 29:28that's necessary to know. And I would
- 29:30also try to figure out if our competitor
- 29:32can actually increase their capacity in
- 29:36that much. I don't know how much that is
- 29:38but if it's significant I want to know
- 29:41if they can increase their capacity
- 29:42easily or if there might need to be
- 29:44investments cuz then I need to take that
- 29:46into account. That's not you know a free
- 29:49increase in revenues just from the
- 29:51acquisition. Now what you should have
- 29:53seen from this answer that I gave you is
- 29:57all of the
- 29:58mistakes that I showed before are not
- 30:00present. I showed the interviewer
- 30:02exactly what I was going to do before
- 30:04then I asked them the questions that
- 30:07could be the numbers that I needed and
- 30:10the numbers that weren't logically
- 30:11necessary but that could be affecting
- 30:14the case. And even though they were not
- 30:16used
- 30:17the fact that I asked those questions is
- 30:19important. Then
- 30:21I calculated everything and I guided the
- 30:24interviewer through as I calculated and
- 30:26to guide them through I used the
- 30:28structure that I showed previously. And
- 30:30then after that I told the interviewer
- 30:32exactly what that number that we got to
- 30:35meant and I told them what I would do
- 30:37next so that they know that I can
- 30:40not only work by myself but also need a
- 30:43team if needed.
- 30:45Now, enough with what an analysis is,
- 30:49what are the skills, blah, blah, blah.
- 30:51Let's get right to the techniques that
- 30:54you need to learn to
- 30:56ace your case interviews, never get
- 30:59stuck again, etc. So, basically,
- 31:02if you learn the step-by-step approach
- 31:05and the structuring that technique that
- 31:07I'm going to teach you right now, and if
- 31:09you practice those until they're
- 31:11internalized, you will be able to create
- 31:14a robust structure for every single
- 31:16analysis question that you'll get, and
- 31:18you'll be able to generate useful
- 31:20insights. And you're going to show
- 31:22Essentially, you're going to show your
- 31:23interviewer that one, you can work
- 31:26independently,
- 31:27which is something that they absolutely
- 31:29need as they're all the time staffed
- 31:32under that assumption that all of their
- 31:34consultants can work independently.
- 31:36Number two, you're going to show them
- 31:38that you can take a quantitative problem
- 31:40off their hands without them worrying if
- 31:43they're going to need to redo your work
- 31:45or check your work more than just a
- 31:48quick glance and not trust you, right?
- 31:52Imagine if you have six of these
- 31:53problems, you're overwhelmed, and you
- 31:55have
- 31:57in front of you someone who could do
- 31:59half of your work for you. You're in
- 32:01heaven. That's exactly where the
- 32:04interviewer is sitting on right now.
- 32:07And you'll also be light years ahead
- 32:10ahead of 99% of candidates who feel lost
- 32:13in the middle of the problem and need
- 32:15the interviewer's help to move forward
- 32:16because they
- 32:18don't exactly know what they are what
- 32:20they're doing, and they can't move
- 32:22forward or move backward.
- 32:24Candidates who annoy the interviewer by
- 32:26not knowing the meaning of the number
- 32:28they're calculating, who have to hope
- 32:31for an easy or average question because
- 32:33they know that they can't handle a tough
- 32:35one, and candidates who are still
- 32:38playing the wrong game and call this a
- 32:39math problem. Believe me, the
- 32:41interviewer can see right through their
- 32:44poker faces. Now, before I show you the
- 32:46techniques, let's remember something.
- 32:49What are our goals when answering an
- 32:51analysis question? You want to show the
- 32:53interviewer your thought process so that
- 32:56they always know where we are, they
- 32:58always know that you'll get to the
- 32:59answer, that you will consider all of
- 33:02the variables so that you and the
- 33:05interviewer can discuss the issues and
- 33:07the approaches and the assumptions in
- 33:09isolation.
- 33:10Your goal is also to get to the right
- 33:12number, and your goal is to create a
- 33:15conclusion that's biased towards action
- 33:18given the number that you've calculated
- 33:20and the case question. So, the
- 33:22techniques that I'm going to show you
- 33:24are going to help you do exactly this.
- 33:26This is the four-step approach that you
- 33:28will follow. First, I'm going to give
- 33:30you just the steps, and then I'm going
- 33:32to give you an example of an analytical
- 33:34question, and then I'm going to go
- 33:36through it while I explain the steps to
- 33:38you, and then right away show you an
- 33:40example of how it's done. The steps are:
- 33:43Number one, structure
- 33:45your problem. Number two, ask for the
- 33:47data you need. Number three, calculate.
- 33:50And number four, once you get to the
- 33:52answer, lead from the insights.
- 33:55Now, let's get to the case question so
- 33:58that I can explain what each of those
- 34:01steps mean and how to do it
- 34:03from a real example and show you right
- 34:06away how it's done. This case question
- 34:09right here is comes straight from a
- 34:12business idea that Bruno and I had way
- 34:14before we started uh crafting cases or
- 34:18even case interview coaching. It didn't
- 34:21go forward. It wasn't really good idea.
- 34:23There might be ways out, but anyway,
- 34:25this is where this business case
- 34:28question comes from. So, your Your has a
- 34:30business idea, and he asked what you
- 34:32think of it.
- 34:34They want to create a chain of high-end
- 34:37coffee micro kiosks in airports.
- 34:40The each unit would only occupy around 2
- 34:44square meters, thus saving a lot of rent
- 34:47costs, and it would deliver super
- 34:49high-quality coffee, which wouldn't cost
- 34:52significantly more per cup if well
- 34:55purchased, which your friend believes
- 34:57they can do.
- 34:58This way, they could easily take
- 35:00significant market share from the
- 35:02low-quality overpriced coffee shops
- 35:04around. How would you analyze whether
- 35:06this is a good idea or not?
- 35:08And then let's say you answer with your
- 35:10framework for this question, which I'm
- 35:12not going to get into cuz I don't want
- 35:14to go into the framework question. But
- 35:16then, you get the following data.
- 35:19Let's say that the price per coffee cup
- 35:22is $3.75.
- 35:24The
- 35:26the total costs per cup of coffee for
- 35:30the micro kiosks is $1.
- 35:33And then there are the costs to open and
- 35:36create the micro kiosk stand
- 35:39for only one unit, which is $150,000.
- 35:43And the yearly operating costs,
- 35:45including rent and labor and etc., and
- 35:48that is $200,000 per year.
- 35:51And the question is
- 35:53for one single unit, how many cups of
- 35:56coffee would they need to sell in order
- 35:58to break even their investment in 2
- 36:00years? Now, you can start and right now
- 36:04run through all of the steps if you
- 36:06already feel safe to do so. What I'm
- 36:08going to do right now is pause before
- 36:11each step, explain you more details
- 36:14about the step, and then perform the
- 36:15step myself
- 36:17before moving on. Okay? So, I highly
- 36:20recommend you
- 36:22watch my description of the step before
- 36:24pausing the video and doing the step by
- 36:26yourself. All right, let's go. Now, I'm
- 36:28going to talk to you about the step
- 36:29number one, structure. Structuring the
- 36:32problem is basically showing to the
- 36:35interviewer
- 36:36what exactly you're going to do from
- 36:39beginning to end to get to the number
- 36:43that they've asked you to calculate.
- 36:45So, you'll say, "I'm going to do this
- 36:47and this and this and that and then I'm
- 36:49going to get to the final number." It
- 36:50should take you all the way
- 36:53throughout the calculations that you're
- 36:55going to do and it should have no
- 36:58numbers. It should only be conceptual so
- 37:01that the interviewer can agree or
- 37:03disagree with you
- 37:05in terms of logic and you don't have to
- 37:08dive and you even can't dive into the
- 37:11specific of each numbers. All right?
- 37:15I highly recommend you use step-by-step
- 37:17structures. There are several ways to do
- 37:19this. You could use formulas, you could
- 37:20use trees, but I highly recommend you
- 37:23use step-by-step structures because
- 37:25they're intuitive, they work for every
- 37:27single case, and they also give you a
- 37:30little bit of space to figure some stuff
- 37:32out on the go, but already have
- 37:35a
- 37:36proven path that will get you to your
- 37:39final answer. Now, I'm going to show you
- 37:41a technique. I'm going to explain to you
- 37:44a technique right now that will teach
- 37:46you how to create step-by-step
- 37:47structures for any problem. You're of
- 37:50course going to need a little bit of
- 37:51practice and that's what you're going to
- 37:53get in the next videos and also in this
- 37:55example right now, I'm going to show you
- 37:56myself using it, but it's a structure
- 37:58that if you practice, you will never
- 38:01have trouble
- 38:03getting to the structure for a problem
- 38:06again unless it's a really complicated
- 38:08problem you've never seen before and
- 38:09etc. etc. if it's super hard. Then, you
- 38:11might need a little bit more of mental
- 38:14power and perhaps the right kind of
- 38:16practice, but this technique is already
- 38:19a super strong tool even for those
- 38:21cases. So, basically
- 38:23here's what you're going to do.
- 38:25You come up with a number. You You look
- 38:27at the numbers that you have. You look
- 38:29at the number that you need to get to.
- 38:31And you come up with a number
- 38:33that you know that you can get to and
- 38:35that you know that will get you there.
- 38:38Right? So, intuitively you know that you
- 38:40can get to that number and that it will
- 38:41get you there.
- 38:43Maybe you need to ask for data from the
- 38:45interviewer, that is fine. But, you know
- 38:47that you can get to it even if you don't
- 38:49know anything else. Now you have that
- 38:51number.
- 38:51Okay? And that is step one.
- 38:54And then you look at everything that you
- 38:56have again and you come up with one
- 38:59number that you can get to, that you
- 39:01know that will help you get there.
- 39:03That's all you know.
- 39:05That is step two. And then you repeat
- 39:08that again and again and again until
- 39:11the last step gets you to the final
- 39:13number.
- 39:14Okay? I'm going to show this to you
- 39:16right now as I solve this question by
- 39:19myself.
- 39:20In a real case, I would have asked the
- 39:22interviewer for some time and then I'd
- 39:24create the structure in my mind. But, in
- 39:26this case, I want to think out loud so
- 39:28that you can follow me. Okay? So, I'm
- 39:31looking at these numbers and one thing
- 39:33that I know that I can get to and that I
- 39:34know will help me somehow is
- 39:37the gross profits per cup of coffee,
- 39:41which is basically the price minus the
- 39:43variable costs. I know that's going to
- 39:45help me cuz it's the contribution that
- 39:47each cup of coffee gives me
- 39:50to cover those fixed costs and
- 39:53investments that we need to cover to
- 39:54reach break even. Okay?
- 39:57Now what I have is fixed costs,
- 39:59investments, and profits per cup of
- 40:01coffee. And so, the next thing that I
- 40:04know that I
- 40:05can get to and that I know that will
- 40:07help me is the total fixed costs and
- 40:10investments that I'm going to have over
- 40:13these 2 years. So, that's basically 2
- 40:15years worth of fixed costs plus the
- 40:17investments. And this is my step two.
- 40:20Getting to total fixed costs and
- 40:22investments in 2 years. And then my step
- 40:24three is going to be finding how many of
- 40:28these tiny bits of profit I need in
- 40:30order to cover for those costs and
- 40:32investment. So, that's step three,
- 40:34actually getting to the number of cup of
- 40:37coffee that I need to sell. Okay? So,
- 40:40this is my structure. After thinking
- 40:42through this way, I present it to the
- 40:44interviewer as step number one, get to
- 40:47the growth profits per cup of coffee.
- 40:50Step number two, getting to the total
- 40:52fixed costs and investment that these
- 40:55growth profits will need to cover over 2
- 40:57years. And step number three, dividing
- 41:00the total fixed costs and investment by
- 41:02the profit per cup of coffee to get to
- 41:05the break-even number. Okay? Now, let's
- 41:08talk about step number two, asking for
- 41:11data.
- 41:12Many numbers that you will need are
- 41:15going to be clear to you that you're
- 41:16going to need and that you're going to
- 41:18need to figure it out somehow from your
- 41:20structure because
- 41:22you are going to need to divide the
- 41:24number that you have by a number that
- 41:26well, the interviewer didn't tell you,
- 41:27so you know that that's a piece of data
- 41:29that you need. But there's also another
- 41:32type of potentially missing data that
- 41:35you should look out for. And that is
- 41:37things that might affect your answer,
- 41:40but that don't necessarily need to be
- 41:43there. Kind of like the cannibalization
- 41:45effect that I was talking about in the
- 41:47previous example, right? And in this
- 41:49case, it could be something like, let's
- 41:51say we are also selling something else
- 41:53other than coffee. The interviewer just
- 41:56didn't bother telling us, but we're also
- 41:58selling muffins or whatever or mugs, I
- 42:01don't know. And so, that would change
- 42:04because that would change the structure
- 42:06because we would need we would have
- 42:08something else that's also covering for
- 42:11costs and investments, And so, that
- 42:13would change the break-even.
- 42:15Now, that's something you should always
- 42:17look for when doing analysis questions
- 42:20because
- 42:22even when they're not there, the
- 42:24interviewer expects you to ask for some
- 42:26stuff because
- 42:28that shows them that you have the
- 42:30creativity to think about other factors
- 42:33that weren't mentioned that but that
- 42:35might change the answer, which happens
- 42:37all the time in the consulting job. And
- 42:40they want to know that they can trust
- 42:41you to solve the problem by yourself and
- 42:44not have them need to ask you in the
- 42:47meeting when you present your results,
- 42:49but did you consider this? Did you
- 42:51consider that? Did you consider that?
- 42:53Okay?
- 42:54Another thing that you should know about
- 42:56asking for data. This is a mistake that
- 42:59a lot of people do. They see that they
- 43:01need a piece of data and so, they right
- 43:03away start estimating your guessing this
- 43:06that piece of data or that number or
- 43:07whatever. And you should always request
- 43:11the missing numbers before estimating
- 43:14your guessing the numbers.
- 43:16Think about the interviewer like a
- 43:18skeptical client. They know the
- 43:20industry.
- 43:22They know a lot of numbers, but they
- 43:24don't know what you want until you ask.
- 43:27What this means is if you ask, they know
- 43:29it and they're going to give it to you.
- 43:31And if they don't know it, then you can
- 43:32estimate. But if you don't ask and start
- 43:35estimating and they know that number,
- 43:36you're going to look silly cuz you're
- 43:38going to be estimating and you're going
- 43:39to be Of course, you're going to be
- 43:41wrong compared to someone who has the
- 43:42real number in their minds and that's
- 43:44just going to look silly. That just
- 43:45makes you look bad. Now, if they don't
- 43:48know, then you can estimate because both
- 43:50of you don't know and you just look
- 43:51smart cuz you're
- 43:53calculating a number from scratch.
- 43:54You're inventing a number from scratch.
- 43:56Okay?
- 43:57Now,
- 43:58one question that people ask us a lot is
- 44:01when do you ask? Do you necessarily need
- 44:04to ask right now after the structure?
- 44:07And this is preferable. If you want to
- 44:09ask before the structure, you might get
- 44:12the interviewer a little bit confused,
- 44:13but that is generally fine. If you want
- 44:16to ask during the calculations
- 44:18afterwards, it's a little bit worse
- 44:21because you you kind of show to the
- 44:23interviewer that you'll start working
- 44:25without knowing all of the numbers and
- 44:27having all of the ingredients, which is
- 44:29a little bit weird, but it's also fine.
- 44:31The timing of the questions is not that
- 44:33important. Okay? Just make sure that if
- 44:37you get a new number during your
- 44:38calculations and you need to change your
- 44:40structure, you will stop and you will do
- 44:42this explicitly. So, "Oh, so this means
- 44:45that I need to change my structure in
- 44:46this and this and this way." And then
- 44:48you do it. All right? Now, in this case,
- 44:51the only question that I would ask, the
- 44:53only thing that's missing here is I want
- 44:55to know if we're selling something else
- 44:57other than only cups of coffee. And the
- 45:00interviewer will tell me, "No, we're
- 45:01only selling cups of coffee." Okay? Now,
- 45:04let's get to step number three,
- 45:06calculating.
- 45:07As I told you before, mental math and
- 45:11being really quick and being a genius
- 45:13calculator is something that is
- 45:16secondary in case interviews.
- 45:18Interviewers don't really care that much
- 45:21if you can, you know, divide 3,000 by 17
- 45:26in a split second. They really care that
- 45:29you are precise and they really care
- 45:31that you're efficient. So, you've got to
- 45:34be aware of that trade-off between
- 45:35precision and efficiency. All right? And
- 45:38you've got to find the soft spot for
- 45:40you. You've got to make sure that you're
- 45:41precise and then you add efficiency to
- 45:44your process. If there's a faster way,
- 45:46you use the faster way. If rounding will
- 45:49be a lot better, it will not change the
- 45:51result a lot, then you will round or you
- 45:53will request to round. Okay? This is how
- 45:57it goes. Don't worry about it too much,
- 46:00but of course make sure that you're not
- 46:01making a ton of mistakes. And if you can
- 46:04add efficiency, go ahead and add
- 46:06efficiency. Now, what a lot of people
- 46:09worry about, and you might be worrying
- 46:11about right now, is what if I make a
- 46:12mistake? And many people think that this
- 46:15means that they've lost the job and
- 46:17whatever. And most of the times it's not
- 46:19a problem. If you do only one mistake in
- 46:22the interview, the interviewer is just
- 46:23going to brush it off and say it's all
- 46:25right, everyone makes mistakes. Happens
- 46:27all the time. But, if you do it often,
- 46:31that is a problem. We want to avoid any
- 46:33mistakes, okay? But, if you do them
- 46:35often, it's a really bad problem cuz the
- 46:37interviewer is going to be annoyed, and
- 46:39they're going to think that you're
- 46:40careless and reckless, and that you
- 46:43might make those mistakes in a important
- 46:47conference, and not like important
- 46:50conference room, and important meeting.
- 46:52Might not check your numbers well, and
- 46:53you might not check other people's
- 46:55numbers well, and so that's not really
- 46:56good. So, if you make a mistake, just
- 47:00follow on, and do a great job in the
- 47:02rest of the case, the interviewer won't
- 47:04care. If you are practicing, and you
- 47:06notice that you're making a lot of
- 47:07mistakes, then you've got to solve that
- 47:09problem, okay? And in my opinion, I'm
- 47:12going to be quick here cuz this is not
- 47:13key, but in my opinion, the best way to
- 47:16fix that problem is before you do any
- 47:19math, any math that is a little bit more
- 47:22complicated, you do a quick reality
- 47:25check before you run the numbers. So,
- 47:27like 28 /
- 47:306. All right, you know that 28 is 7 * 4,
- 47:33so you know it's close to 4. But, then
- 47:36you do the right math afterwards. Now,
- 47:39you know that should be close to 4, but
- 47:41it should be a little bit more, and then
- 47:42you know, do the calculation, you get to
- 47:44the right number. All right?
- 47:46Now, let's move on to the actual
- 47:48calculations in this case. So, step
- 47:52number one, I'm going to find the profit
- 47:54per cup of coffee. And that is 3.75 - 1,
- 47:58that's 2.75.
- 48:00Step number two, I'm going to find what
- 48:02is two years worth of fixed costs plus
- 48:05the investments. So, that's 2 * 200,000
- 48:09+ 150,000.
- 48:112 * 200,000 is 400,000
- 48:14+ 150 is 550,000.
- 48:18Now, step number three, 550,000 / 2.75.
- 48:23So,
- 48:24first I'm going to
- 48:25quickly see this as 600,000 / 3. Both
- 48:29numbers are close
- 48:30to that, so it should be around 200,000.
- 48:33Now, I'm going to actually divide 550 by
- 48:36275
- 48:39to get to this number and
- 48:41it seems like 550 / 275 is two,
- 48:45actually. So, the number really is
- 48:48200,000.
- 48:49And so, this is the number of cups of
- 48:51coffee that we need to break even in two
- 48:54years.
- 48:55200,000, yes.
- 48:57And now,
- 48:59we're moving on to step number four,
- 49:01which is getting insights and leading
- 49:04from them, finding next steps.
- 49:06Keep in mind that this is the most
- 49:09important step in an analysis question.
- 49:12And not only from a case interview
- 49:14perspective, but also from a consulting
- 49:17job perspective. Because this is what
- 49:19makes consultants difference. It's what
- 49:22makes their job so valuable to the
- 49:24client. It's what makes McKinsey's
- 49:26projects so expensive. It's because they
- 49:30give guidance to the client. They tell
- 49:32them what to do to get the most value
- 49:34out of their company, right? And
- 49:36basically, what you're doing in this
- 49:37step is
- 49:39telling the interviewer what that number
- 49:43you got to means to the case and what
- 49:46should be done based on it. And you're
- 49:49also telling them any other interesting
- 49:51insight that you see from everything
- 49:52that you did that might help get to an
- 49:54answer to the case question.
- 49:56What you're showing is that you're not
- 49:58the one that's going to sit and wait for
- 50:00guidance once you're done. You are the
- 50:02one who knows how to use that number,
- 50:04and you know how to guide yourself and
- 50:06the project using it. And you, because
- 50:09of that, are the person that people will
- 50:10look for when they need guidance.
- 50:13This is a skill, as I said before, that
- 50:15everyone in a consulting engagement must
- 50:17have. It's expected that you're able to
- 50:20do this, and this is why it's tested in
- 50:24the case interview. Now, you're going to
- 50:26do this in three steps. I know this is
- 50:28step four, but I'm going to divide it up
- 50:30in three more steps.
- 50:31Step number one, you're going to compare
- 50:33the number that you got to to some other
- 50:36number. And
- 50:38you're going to do that to have a basis
- 50:41to say if it's too high or too low, too
- 50:43much or too little, or whatever, right?
- 50:45And you're going to have to find what
- 50:46that comparison is. Number two,
- 50:49you're going to say what this means from
- 50:53the case question point of view. So,
- 50:55what does this number mean to the entire
- 50:57engagement that we're doing, to the case
- 50:59question that the interviewer told us
- 51:01right in the beginning of the case? And
- 51:03number three, you're going to say what
- 51:05you and the client and the team should
- 51:08do next based on that. Okay?
- 51:11Now, let's get to what I would say in
- 51:14this case.
- 51:15Well, basically, I would look at this
- 51:17200k and I would say, "Oh, okay, so
- 51:20200,000 cups of coffee in 2 years."
- 51:22If we assume 350 days in a year, that's
- 51:26around 300 cups per day.
- 51:29And if we assume that the coffee shop is
- 51:32open
- 51:3315 hours a day,
- 51:35uh that would mean 20 cups an hour, or
- 51:38one cup every 3 minutes. And that's not
- 51:41only in peak times, but also like 10:00
- 51:44p.m. when not that many people drink
- 51:46coffee.
- 51:47This looks way too optimistic in my
- 51:49opinion. Like I'm thinking of looking at
- 51:51a coffee shop in a in the airport. And
- 51:53of course, there's a lot of movement,
- 51:56but not necessarily all of them are
- 51:58buying coffee. And honestly, very little
- 52:01of them are buying only coffee. And
- 52:04since this is only one location, we
- 52:05can't really assume that we can take
- 52:07market share from all of the airport,
- 52:09only from the surroundings.
- 52:11So, it makes sense to think of one or
- 52:14two specific coffee shops that would be
- 52:16close to this one.
- 52:17And we can only
- 52:19get the customers who care about the
- 52:21quality of coffee, which are obviously
- 52:23not all of them.
- 52:25And customers who don't want anything
- 52:26else. That are not going into the coffee
- 52:29shop and asking for, you know, a cup of
- 52:31coffee and something to eat or whatever.
- 52:33Cuz
- 52:34they want to buy everything at the same
- 52:36place. So, that's not a very large
- 52:38fraction of the customers. I would not
- 52:40trust that we can easily get to those
- 52:43200,000 cups of coffee in 2 years. Now,
- 52:47if I were to do something next, it would
- 52:49probably be see if we can sell something
- 52:52else in order to increase the average
- 52:54ticket of each customer. So, for
- 52:56example, we could sell coffee beans,
- 52:59bags of those coffee beans, so that
- 53:01people can take home to to brew their
- 53:04own coffee or so that they can give away
- 53:06as gifts with a very high value added.
- 53:09Like if it's if these are really high
- 53:11quality gifts that are well sourced
- 53:12straight from the farm or whatever, we
- 53:14can probably package those as gifts and
- 53:17sell them at a high price. And this
- 53:19might make the business worthy, but it
- 53:21doesn't look too promising to me from
- 53:24the perspective of only selling cups of
- 53:27coffee.
- 53:28So, now you might be asking yourself,
- 53:30what happens next? Like we're doing a
- 53:32real case here. What happens next?
- 53:35If this were a candidate-led case, then
- 53:38the interviewer would just allow you to
- 53:40follow on with your next step, and maybe
- 53:43give you some data for that one next
- 53:45step. They might question your
- 53:48assumption, your conclusion, and then
- 53:51you can discuss that conclusion with
- 53:52them.
- 53:53Or the interviewer might just say,
- 53:54"Time's up. I want a recommendation."
- 53:57And you might have at least a better
- 53:59recommendation to give than before
- 54:02before doing the analysis, since you
- 54:04already know what that number means to
- 54:06your case question.
- 54:07If this were an interviewer-led case,
- 54:10then
- 54:11the interviewer might be satisfied and
- 54:14just ask you a new question, cuz you
- 54:16fulfilled everything they wanted to
- 54:17know. The interviewer might be curious
- 54:19and impressed with your follow-up, and
- 54:22ask you for a follow-up question. Like,
- 54:24for example, "What other kinds of things
- 54:26can we sell other than coffee bean bags,
- 54:29so that we can include increase the
- 54:30average ticket and make this work?" Or
- 54:32maybe they could ask you, "What are
- 54:34other places that we could place this
- 54:35kiosk if we're able to make it
- 54:38profitable? Give me some ideas."
- 54:41The most common mix is the most common
- 54:44type would be a mix between the
- 54:48interviewer-led and the candidate-led
- 54:49interview, where the interviewer might
- 54:52be satisfied, like it's a candidate-led
- 54:55case generally, but the interviewer is
- 54:57satisfied with what you show them, and
- 54:59they need to see other types of things.
- 55:00They need to test other stuff in your
- 55:03skills, and so they'll just ask you a
- 55:05new question, or tell you to go a
- 55:07different way, or whatever. And that's
- 55:09that's the most common path, honestly,
- 55:11unless it's a McKinsey first-round case,
- 55:13where they have the questions lined up.
- 55:15This is probably how it would go.
- 55:17Now, if this were a real project, then
- 55:20after the analysis, you have tested the
- 55:23hypothesis you wanted, you go back to
- 55:25the beginning of your project, and see
- 55:28what this means to the big picture,
- 55:29create those next steps, and go do them.
- 55:32You'd probably present this to someone,
- 55:34to the manager, to the partner, discuss
- 55:36those next steps that you came up with,
- 55:38and then go do them. And in this case,
- 55:41it would probably be, as you saw,
- 55:43finding ways to improve the average
- 55:45ticket so that we can make this business
- 55:47work.
- 55:48All right, this is it for right now.
- 55:51Now, I'd highly recommend you go check
- 55:54out the drill videos and work through
- 55:57the step-by-step process and internalize
- 56:00it. Internalize the technique to create
- 56:03structures by yourself, also, so that
- 56:06you can be able to create structures for
- 56:08any case and never again get stuck in an
- 56:11analytical question. Cuz I know that
- 56:13there's no worse feeling than blanking
- 56:16out in the middle of an analytical
- 56:18question case. Okay?
- 56:20Right, I'll see you in the next video.
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