Briefing #11 - PSYC/SOC-270-580 — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:07Oh, statistics scholars, Dr. McNeal
- 0:09here. Welcome back.
- 0:12Today we're going
- 0:14to introduce you to
- 0:17a brand new statistical procedure. What
- 0:20else is new, right?
- 0:22Analysis of variance or ANOVA. ANOVA
- 0:26stands for analysis AN of O variance VA.
- 0:32Now we've been doing a lot of
- 0:33mathematics over the last several weeks,
- 0:35but I want to continue to remind you
- 0:38that
- 0:39statistics is the study of language.
- 0:42It's not the study of math.
- 0:44You know by this time that there is
- 0:47statistics or there is math involved in
- 0:49statistics, but it's not complicated
- 0:52math. It's not big math. It's not much
- 0:54more than adding and subtracting,
- 0:56multiplying, dividing, and exponents and
- 0:59square roots. You've gotten much more
- 1:01comfortable doing all of that over the
- 1:05past what 11 12 weeks.
- 1:08Statistics hasn't gotten more
- 1:11complicated.
- 1:13It's gotten a little bit more complex,
- 1:15but not more complicated.
- 1:17We've calculated mean, standard
- 1:19deviations, standard errors, Z scores, T
- 1:24statistics for one sample, paired
- 1:26samples, and independent samples,
- 1:29confidence intervals, and effect sizes.
- 1:32And I want to make sure that we haven't
- 1:34lost sight of something very important.
- 1:37Now I know we've been sort of jumping in
- 1:40doing a lot of calculations of problems,
- 1:44but really in statistics none of the
- 1:46work that we do begins with a formula.
- 1:50It actually begins with a research
- 1:52question.
- 1:54So as scholars, we're interested in
- 1:56something that's actually happening in
- 1:58the world, something that we don't
- 2:00understand, something that we're curious
- 2:03about.
- 2:04And so we develop a research question
- 2:07because we want to learn something.
- 2:09Then we decide how to collect the
- 2:12evidence that might help us answer that
- 2:14question.
- 2:16Only after we've done all of that do we
- 2:19turn to the statistical analyses. And I
- 2:22want to
- 2:23begin to show you that moving forward
- 2:26because you have enough statistics
- 2:28underneath your belt that now we're
- 2:30going to move into the world of
- 2:32research. Remember, this course is um
- 2:35statistics for the psychological
- 2:37sciences.
- 2:40So today we're going to begin with a set
- 2:42of numbers and
- 2:45No, actually
- 2:46instead of starting with a set of
- 2:49numbers, I'm going to ask you
- 2:52No.
- 2:53Today, instead of starting with a set of
- 2:55numbers and asking you to calculate
- 2:58something, we're going to begin where
- 3:00researchers actually begin
- 3:02with a question.
- 3:05And I'm also committed to doing
- 3:06something else today
- 3:09that follows up in what I did last week.
- 3:12I'm going to show you all the mistakes I
- 3:13make.
- 3:15I'm not going to clean it all up in the
- 3:17edit so that it's nice and pretty. I
- 3:19want you to hear
- 3:20the effort that it takes.
- 3:23Now, I've worked out the scenario that
- 3:25I'm going to present to you today, but
- 3:28I might make a mistake along the way.
- 3:31And in fact,
- 3:33if I make a mistake, I'm going to offer
- 3:35you
- 3:3710 points for every mistake I make.
- 3:40How's that?
- 3:42So
- 3:44let's begin.
- 3:45Let's imagine that I'm a researcher.
- 3:48Well, we don't really have to imagine
- 3:50that because I am a researcher.
- 3:52But let's imagine that you are a
- 3:53researcher with me. And we're interested
- 3:56in children and their parents.
- 4:00More specifically, we're interested what
- 4:03parents do to get their children to go
- 4:07to bed.
- 4:08Because as many of you know, parents
- 4:10have different strategies.
- 4:12Some parents have a set bedtime.
- 4:158:00 means
- 4:178:00.
- 4:19Other parents negotiate with their
- 4:20children. Maybe tonight it's 8:00,
- 4:23tomorrow it's 8:30.
- 4:25There's a little discussion involved.
- 4:28And still other parents allow their
- 4:30children to decide
- 4:31when they're ready to bed, when they're
- 4:33ready to go to bed. I don't know who
- 4:34those parents are, but they exist.
- 4:36There are three different approaches.
- 4:39And and we're curious about something.
- 4:42Does the bedtime strategy parents use
- 4:45relate to how long it takes their
- 4:47children to fall asleep?
- 4:49That's our research question. In fact,
- 4:52I'm going to go to the map
- 4:54and start
- 4:55populating the map
- 4:59in a different way.
- 5:01We'll start with, again,
- 5:04research question.
- 5:07Uh does the bedtime
- 5:13strategy
- 5:17parents use
- 5:21relate to how long
- 5:27uh
- 5:28that it takes their children to go to
- 5:29bed.
- 5:40That's a legitimate question.
- 5:42Now, we may already have some idea about
- 5:46what we're going to find, but that's not
- 5:48how research works. We have to
- 5:52go to the research with an open mind
- 5:56to discover something.
- 5:59Now, we're going to find out instead of
- 6:04getting information or getting data from
- 6:06the textbook. Let's show you what it
- 6:09really what really happens.
- 6:11We would recruit parents
- 6:14so that we can find out
- 6:17what they do.
- 6:18But before we recruit anybody,
- 6:21before we collect a single observation,
- 6:25we need to establish our hypotheses.
- 6:27Remember, we've been doing that since
- 6:29chapter seven.
- 6:31So the first step is again our null
- 6:32hypothesis.
- 6:34Uh
- 6:35our null hypothesis states that there's
- 6:37no difference among the population mean.
- 6:39So in other words,
- 6:40there is
- 6:42no difference
- 6:47in
- 6:48children
- 6:51sleep time
- 6:54based on
- 6:58parents'
- 7:01strategy.
- 7:04There's no difference.
- 7:06Now for an ANOVA, that's different than
- 7:08we've done with one sample, paired
- 7:12samples, and independent samples, we're
- 7:15actually working with three or more
- 7:19uh
- 7:20three or more
- 7:21samples or three or more categories. So
- 7:23how we write that mathematically is mu
- 7:26one
- 7:27equals mu two
- 7:29equals mu
- 7:30three. That corresponds to the three
- 7:34uh strategy strategies that we just said
- 7:36that parents use. Parents can either use
- 7:39a kids go to bed when they decide, kids
- 7:42negotiate, or kids adhere to a strict
- 7:44bedtime. So that's mu one, mu two, and
- 7:46mu three.
- 7:49So we're saying in other words that no
- 7:50matter
- 7:52what the bedtime strategy parents use,
- 7:54the average time it takes uh for
- 7:56children to fall asleep is the same.
- 7:59Now our alternative hypothesis is a
- 8:02little bit different than what we've
- 8:03done up till now.
- 8:06Because we're calculating the ANOVAs by
- 8:08hand, we can't say for sure
- 8:12that we can find one or the other. So
- 8:15all we really say for anova
- 8:18uh when we're doing it by hand is at
- 8:21least one group is different. At least
- 8:27one parent's
- 8:30strategy
- 8:33is different.
- 8:36We can't say
- 8:38um
- 8:40that it's a tail test to the right or to
- 8:42the left. In fact, we're doing what's
- 8:44called a one way anova.
- 8:49We can only look in one direction.
- 8:52So again, notice here we're not just
- 8:54comparing two groups. We have three
- 8:55groups and that's why we need an anova.
- 8:59Our t tests have prepared us to compare
- 9:01means between two conditions, but anova
- 9:04allows us to examine differences among
- 9:06three or more groups in a single overall
- 9:10analysis.
- 9:11And again,
- 9:12here's something else to remember. If
- 9:15we reject the null hypothesis, we can
- 9:17conclude that at least one population
- 9:19mean difference differs, but the overall
- 9:23anova doesn't tell us which group
- 9:26uh which groups are significantly
- 9:28different from one another.
- 9:31For that, we would need uh additional
- 9:33procedure, something called a post hoc
- 9:36test
- 9:37uh which some of you may encounter when
- 9:39working with a program called SPSS.
- 9:42And that program is part of of a class
- 9:45called psych social 271. I actually
- 9:48teach that class as well. I'm teaching
- 9:50it this semester too. It just started
- 9:52three weeks ago.
- 9:54But for now, we're just concentrating on
- 9:56that first question.
- 9:57Are all of these three populations,
- 10:01their population means, are they equal?
- 10:04We've got our research question.
- 10:06We've established our hypotheses.
- 10:09Now we need participants. So I developed
- 10:12a recruitment flyer. Let's take a look
- 10:14at it.
- 10:16We're conducting a hypothetical study at
- 10:19Southwestern College involving scholars
- 10:21from Psych Social 270 sections 501 and
- 10:25508, which you see right here.
- 10:28We want to recruit 15 parents.
- 10:31parents whose children decide when they
- 10:33go to bed,
- 10:35five parents who negotiate bedtime with
- 10:37their children, and five parents who use
- 10:39a set bedtime.
- 10:41We're not telling parents to change
- 10:43their bedtime strategies. We're simply
- 10:44recruiting parents
- 10:46who already use these approaches. And
- 10:49we're going to ask them to observe their
- 10:51child for one night
- 10:53and
- 10:54tell us how long it takes the child to
- 10:57fall asleep. The measurement is fairly
- 11:00straightforward.
- 11:01How many times, again, does it take the
- 11:03child to fall asleep after getting into
- 11:06bed?
- 11:08We can work out exactly how parents
- 11:09report that information in a detailed
- 11:13uh in a more detailed research study,
- 11:15but
- 11:16sort of imagine this. You put the child
- 11:18to bed, the parents put the child to
- 11:19bed, and then they set a timer
- 11:22every 5 minutes and they go into the
- 11:25bedroom and if the child is asleep in
- 11:27the first 5 minutes, they say 5 minutes.
- 11:30The child isn't asleep, they come back
- 11:32uh at 10 minutes if the child is asleep,
- 11:34then they say 10 minutes and on and on.
- 11:37For our purposes, we're going to assume
- 11:39that we have a consistent,
- 11:41reasonable, accurate way, just like I
- 11:43just described, to collect that data.
- 11:45So again, let's say we recruit our 15
- 11:48families and they return
- 11:51with their observations. This is exactly
- 11:54the way research is done. We would have
- 11:58a recruitment flyer, we would have some
- 12:01recruitment strategy, we would have an
- 12:03idea of how many participants or
- 12:07respondents we need
- 12:09and we would get their information and
- 12:12move forward.
- 12:14So we collected data from the five
- 12:19parents from each group and now we have
- 12:21data. Let's take a look at our first
- 12:24group.
- 12:25These are our parents who allow their
- 12:27children to decide when they're going to
- 12:30bed.
- 12:31Their children took 25 30 35 40 and 45
- 12:36minutes to fall asleep.
- 12:39Notice that every child
- 12:41or notice that not every child had the
- 12:43same result.
- 12:44So even though the parents used the same
- 12:46bedtime strategy, the children are
- 12:48different.
- 12:50That's actually what's important.
- 12:52Now let's take a look at our second
- 12:54group.
- 12:55These are parents who allow their
- 12:57children to negotiate bedtime.
- 13:00Their results are 20 25 30 35 and 40
- 13:05minutes. Again,
- 13:07there's variation.
- 13:09Some children fall asleep relatively
- 13:10quickly,
- 13:11others take a little bit longer.
- 13:15And finally our third group. These are
- 13:17parents who have a consistent bedtime.
- 13:20Their results are 10 minutes, 15
- 13:23minutes, 20, 25 and 30 minutes.
- 13:27So now we have three groups,
- 13:29five observations in each group and a
- 13:32total of 15 observations.
- 13:35So we have our data set
- 13:38and now we're ready to investigate our
- 13:40research question.
- 13:44Now before we begin our calculations, I
- 13:47want you to to think about the three
- 13:49groups
- 13:51and look at these three groups.
- 13:54We're going to calculate the mean for
- 13:55each one
- 13:57and by now you should be able to do that
- 13:59almost in your sleep, right?
- 14:02Let's go over to the map and do that.
- 14:10Group one
- 14:12was the group uh
- 14:15the child goes to sleep when they uh are
- 14:17ready.
- 14:19Child ready.
- 14:23We're going to call that N one.
- 14:25And they went to bed at
- 14:2825 30
- 14:3035 40 and 45 minutes.
- 14:35Group two
- 14:36was the child negotiates.
- 14:41We're going to call that N two.
- 14:44And they went to bed 20 25 30 35
- 14:50and 40 minutes.
- 14:52Group three
- 14:55child strict.
- 14:59It's N three. They went to bed at 10 15
- 15:0420 30
- 15:07uh 25 sorry.
- 15:08There we go, my first mistake.
- 15:10And 30. 10 15 20 25 and 30. They're all
- 15:15five apart.
- 15:16I did that for a reason so that you
- 15:18could see how ANOVA's work more easily
- 15:22without
- 15:23sort of worrying about the calculations.
- 15:25But in the real world
- 15:28uh the data wouldn't necessarily be this
- 15:31nice and clean.
- 15:33So we need a mean for each group.
- 15:37Mean group one, mean group two
- 15:40and mean of group three.
- 15:42Now
- 15:43we could calculate this by to adding 25
- 15:4730 35 40 and 45 and dividing it by five.
- 15:51But because of how uniform this data set
- 15:54is, it's going to be just the middle
- 15:56number and it'll be the middle number
- 15:58for all three sets.
- 16:01Right? You don't need me to calculate
- 16:03that, do you?
- 16:05You don't, do you?
- 16:06You trust me?
- 16:07Okay.
- 16:09So the mean for group one is 35.
- 16:12The mean for group two is 30.
- 16:14And the mean for group three is 20.
- 16:20Now look at those means.
- 16:2335 30 and 20.
- 16:26That reminds me of something.
- 16:29If you're a child
- 16:31in the 70s,
- 16:33maybe even the 80s,
- 16:37one of these things certainly looks
- 16:39different from the others.
- 16:42But which one?
- 16:44Remember that song
- 16:45from Sesame Street?
- 16:51>> One of these things is not like the
- 16:54other. One of these things just doesn't
- 16:57belong. Can you tell which thing is not
- 17:01like the other before I finish my song?
- 17:08Now look very carefully because one of
- 17:10these things just doesn't belong here.
- 17:13Is it the apple
- 17:15or the uh the ice cream cone or the
- 17:17mitten
- 17:18or the hamburger?
- 17:22Well, if you guessed this thing is not
- 17:25like the other, if you guessed this
- 17:27thing just doesn't belong, if you
- 17:30guessed this thing is not like the
- 17:34other, well then
- 17:38you're absolutely correct because all of
- 17:41these things, the apple,
- 17:44the ice cream cone, and the hamburger
- 17:46are things you can eat.
- 17:47But uh
- 17:49did you ever try eating a mitten?
- 17:54>> The child decides has a mean of 35
- 17:57minutes. The negotiated mean has
- 18:0030 minutes and the strict time has a set
- 18:03time of mean of 20.
- 18:06We can see that the sample means are
- 18:08different, but here's the problem. Just
- 18:10because our sample means are different
- 18:12doesn't necessarily mean that our
- 18:14population means are different.
- 18:17Remember, we're working with samples and
- 18:19samples naturally vary.
- 18:22So,
- 18:23how do we determine whether
- 18:25these differences are statistically
- 18:27significant?
- 18:29That's where the ANOVA comes in.
- 18:32Now, look at all 15 observations.
- 18:36I'd like you to look more carefully at
- 18:37what we've collected. I want you to
- 18:39notice that there are two types of
- 18:42variation.
- 18:43First, we have variation between the
- 18:47groups,
- 18:48between the groups.
- 18:52They're not all the same.
- 18:54But we also have variation within the
- 18:57groups.
- 18:59So, this is within,
- 19:02and this is between.
- 19:06Looking at the child decides group, even
- 19:08though those parents follow the same
- 19:11bedtime strategy,
- 19:13one child takes 25 minutes to fall
- 19:16asleep, while another takes 45 minutes.
- 19:19And that brings us to the central idea
- 19:21of ANOVA.
- 19:23ANOVA stands for analysis of variance.
- 19:27And we've been studying variability all
- 19:30semester.
- 19:32You've calculated standard deviations.
- 19:35You've used standard errors. You've
- 19:36worked with the variability of samples
- 19:40to help you calculate t statistics.
- 19:43Now, we're going to make variability the
- 19:47centerpiece of the analysis. We're going
- 19:50to compare two sources of variation,
- 19:53variation between the groups
- 19:56and variation within the groups.
- 20:01To help you think about that, I'd like
- 20:02you to think about
- 20:06an old-fashioned radio.
- 20:09Some of you may remember
- 20:11turning the dial, trying to find a
- 20:13station.
- 20:15What did you hear?
- 20:16Perhaps first.
- 20:25Boy,
- 20:27Maybe some music.
- 20:29That's a signal. And the question
- 20:31becomes, can we distinguish the signal
- 20:35from all that noise?
- 20:38Well, that's a useful way of thinking of
- 20:41or thinking about an ANOVA. The
- 20:43variation between the group represents
- 20:46our potential
- 20:48Sorry. The variation between the groups
- 20:50represents our potential signal. The
- 20:52variation within the groups represents
- 20:55our background noise.
- 20:57And if the groups are truly different,
- 21:00we'd expect the variation between we
- 21:03Well, if the groups are truly different,
- 21:05we expect the variation between their
- 21:07means to be relatively large compared to
- 21:10the variation we would ordinarily
- 21:12observe among individuals within those
- 21:15groups.
- 21:16An ANOVA gives us a way to compare those
- 21:21two sources of variation.
- 21:26Signal,
- 21:31between group variation, differences
- 21:34among groups, noise within group
- 21:37variation, differences among
- 21:40individuals.
- 21:42And this is important. We're not simply
- 21:45asking which raw sums of squares is
- 21:48larger.
- 21:50We're going to adjust each source of
- 21:51variation
- 21:53for its degrees of freedom.
- 21:55And that gives us something called a
- 21:57mean square.
- 21:59And you'll see exactly how that works.
- 22:01So up till now, we've used a Z
- 22:04table, Z chart. We've used a T chart for
- 22:08a T test. And now we're going to use an
- 22:11F chart.
- 22:12To do that, we're going to use something
- 22:14called an ANOVA
- 22:16table. We've used
- 22:19a sum of squares table, sum of squares
- 22:22chart. And we're going to do something
- 22:23very similar to that called the ANOVA
- 22:26table.
- 22:27Before we do that, however, let's
- 22:29organize what we have.
- 22:32We're going to put our
- 22:34uh sort of
- 22:35mise en place on the
- 22:38on the map.
- 22:39We need to know
- 22:41how
- 22:42much we have in terms of the data set.
- 22:44So we could write it one of two ways. We
- 22:46could say N1 equals five
- 22:50because it does.
- 22:52N2 also equals five and N3 equals five.
- 22:57Or we could say N1 equals N2 equals N3
- 23:01equals five.
- 23:03That is the
- 23:05more
- 23:07streamlined way to do it. Now if these
- 23:10uh N sizes were different, we would have
- 23:12to say them different. But since they're
- 23:14all five, we can say N1 equals N2 equals
- 23:17N3 equals five.
- 23:19That's lowercase N.
- 23:22Now we have 15 observations altogether
- 23:25and we use the capital N for the whole
- 23:29data set.
- 23:31N equals 15.
- 23:34And now we have three groups. We denote
- 23:37the groups with a new symbol called K.
- 23:42You've probably seen that in other math.
- 23:45We have three groups, one, two, three
- 23:47and so
- 23:48K equals three. That's it.
- 23:52Now
- 23:53we need to establish our degrees of
- 23:56freedom.
- 23:58And we do that by setting up the ANOVA
- 24:02table.
- 24:04The ANOVA table is a little bit like
- 24:06Sudoku.
- 24:08I think I've said that in other
- 24:11past lectures or briefings.
- 24:15It's like you have a little bit of
- 24:17information and use some of the
- 24:18information that you have to create
- 24:20other information.
- 24:22So I'm going to set up the ANOVA table
- 24:25and then we'll start doing the
- 24:27calculations.
- 24:28The calculations, I'm just going to say
- 24:30this.
- 24:33The calculations seem like they're
- 24:35pretty gnarly, but they're not. It's
- 24:37fairly simple, fairly straightforward.
- 24:41So,
- 24:42the ANOVA table consists of these
- 24:45elements, the source of the variation,
- 24:50the sum of squares of the variation, the
- 24:52degrees of freedom,
- 24:54the mean square, and the F statistic.
- 24:59All right. So, I'm going to put this off
- 25:01to the Oh, let me finish filling it out.
- 25:04We have here are the different sources.
- 25:05We have a source of between
- 25:09the groups. That's one source of
- 25:10variation.
- 25:11And we have another source within the
- 25:14groups.
- 25:15So, this is between,
- 25:17this is within.
- 25:18So, we also have total.
- 25:21And so, let's set this off to the side.
- 25:25And you know the second step is to
- 25:27figure out the critical value, right?
- 25:30For ANOVA, we figure out the critical
- 25:32value a little bit different,
- 25:36differently.
- 25:37We need the degrees of freedom between
- 25:40over the degrees of freedom within.
- 25:44All right. So,
- 25:46there are very simple formulas. You
- 25:49don't have to memorize them. You don't
- 25:51have to
- 25:52look for them. You just have to follow
- 25:55the formulas that are listed in the
- 25:57chapter.
- 25:58So, it's a very simple formula.
- 26:01For the degrees of freedom between, the
- 26:03formula is K - 1.
- 26:08And for the degrees of freedom within,
- 26:10it's N - K.
- 26:16All right. We just just discovered that
- 26:18K is 3.
- 26:20So, it's 3 - 1
- 26:23or 2.
- 26:25And we discovered that N was 15. So, N -
- 26:29K or 3
- 26:3115 - 3
- 26:34is 12.
- 26:35So, we're looking for 12 two over 12.
- 26:39And
- 26:40to the ANOVA table, the F
- 26:44to figure out what critical value that
- 26:46is.
- 26:48Okay, here is our F table.
- 26:51You'll see that we have the numerator
- 26:55and the denominator. So, the numerator
- 26:58is across the top.
- 27:00The denominator is down the side. So,
- 27:02we're looking for two
- 27:04across the top, right?
- 27:06And 12.
- 27:10So, we
- 27:13can only do an ANOVA
- 27:17by hand at the alpha level of 0.05.
- 27:22And we can only do one tail. We can only
- 27:23do one direction. So,
- 27:26that's why you don't see the alpha
- 27:29values. So, we're looking for a critical
- 27:31value of 3.88.
- 27:34Let's head back over to the map.
- 27:383.88.
- 27:41We don't have to Well, we could.
- 27:45Draw curves and one, two, three.
- 27:49That's much further in.
- 27:51Uh
- 27:54the curve moved off the
- 27:57the the
- 27:59paper here.
- 28:02And that's really just to see where the
- 28:04critical value is. So, if we get a
- 28:05number that is greater than 3.88, we're
- 28:08going to reject the null hypothesis.
- 28:11And if not, we're going to fail to
- 28:13reject the null hypothesis.
- 28:17So, we have to also now
- 28:20fill in the degrees of freedom between
- 28:22and within that we just figured out, two
- 28:24and 12.
- 28:26So, two is for
- 28:28between. And 12 is for within.
- 28:32And for total, which I forgot the out
- 28:34there, is 2 + 12 that equals 14 degrees
- 28:39of freedom.
- 28:41Now we need to figure out the sum of
- 28:42squares between, the sum of squares
- 28:44within, the sum of squares total,
- 28:48the mean square between, the mean square
- 28:51within,
- 28:52and then the F statistic that will tell
- 28:55us either to reject or fail to reject.
- 28:58So I'm going to put a number one here, a
- 29:00number two here, a number three here,
- 29:03four, five, and then six because
- 29:07we're going to fill those out, right?
- 29:10So let's first work on the sum of
- 29:12squares
- 29:14between.
- 29:19Sum of squares between has a formula
- 29:21that
- 29:22looks a little crazy, but it's not.
- 29:24It is the sum of
- 29:27NJ
- 29:30times MJ - MG squared.
- 29:36Now I know what you're thinking,
- 29:38where the hell did the J come from?
- 29:41Let me show you what that is.
- 29:43And what did the G come from? Let me
- 29:45show you what that is.
- 29:49Let's work on first
- 29:50MG, which stands for
- 29:53uh
- 29:55my brain just stopped. It stands for
- 29:58the mean grand, the grand mean. There we
- 30:01go.
- 30:02The G stands for grand and M stands for
- 30:04mean.
- 30:05So the grand mean.
- 30:07And all it's doing is taking these uh
- 30:11all of these
- 30:13in the data set and getting, adding them
- 30:15all together and dividing them by 15.
- 30:21I'm going to do it with the calculator
- 30:22very very quickly.
- 30:24I'm going to enter the data into the
- 30:28calculator's memory.
- 30:30Second, reset,
- 30:33guess,
- 30:36and then clear again.
- 30:38Second data.
- 30:40We want one variable
- 30:42and then data. So we 20 25 30 35 40 is
- 30:46the first.
- 30:4725
- 30:4930
- 30:5135
- 30:5240
- 30:5445
- 30:55You're seeing me go press two times
- 30:57because I'm moving beyond
- 31:00the calculator asking is there going to
- 31:02be
- 31:03more than 125. So since there's a
- 31:05frequency of one, I'm just hitting it
- 31:09to move beyond it.
- 31:10So I did the first group
- 31:12I have all the way up to five. So now
- 31:13I'm ready for the second group. 20
- 31:1825
- 31:1930
- 31:2135
- 31:2340 Ooh.
- 31:25And see I messed that out. I only need
- 31:27one of those.
- 31:30And 40.
- 31:31Let me go back and check my data.
- 31:34Press data. Go back in. 25 30 35 40 45.
- 31:39That's the first group.
- 31:4220 25
- 31:44Ah, I need one of them.
- 31:47Let me go back.
- 31:49That's what happened.
- 31:51So
- 31:52I'm going to stop stop and start over.
- 31:55Reset.
- 31:57I promised you you would see errors.
- 31:59Here you are.
- 32:01Second data.
- 32:03One variable. Let me slow down.
- 32:05Data.
- 32:0720 5
- 32:1230
- 32:1435
- 32:1740
- 32:1845
- 32:20Okay, now I'm ready for the second. 20
- 32:2311 5
- 32:2530
- 32:2735
- 32:2940
- 32:31Ready for the third.
- 32:3310
- 32:3515
- 32:3720
- 32:3925
- 32:41and 30.
- 32:44All right, check the data.
- 32:4725
- 32:4830
- 32:4935 40
- 32:5145. That's the first I checked to make
- 32:54sure there was a one frequency in
- 32:55between.
- 32:5720
- 32:5825
- 33:0030
- 33:0135
- 33:0340 right?
- 33:0510
- 33:0715 20
- 33:0925 30
- 33:13There we go. It was 15.
- 33:15All right, so now I hit stat variable.
- 33:19It tells me that the n size is 15 which
- 33:22confirms.
- 33:23And I move over to find out the x bar
- 33:25which is the mean.
- 33:27So the grand mean is
- 33:3128.
- 33:3433.
- 33:36Let's stop with the second decimal as
- 33:39we've done so far.
- 33:42So that's the grand mean.
- 33:46So
- 33:48n
- 33:49j means do group one. So
- 33:54group one n and the group one mean
- 33:57and then the grand mean.
- 34:00Group two n
- 34:02mean
- 34:04for group two and then the grand mean.
- 34:07The n for group three
- 34:09the m for group three and the grand
- 34:12mean. So here's what it actually looks
- 34:15like. This j just means stay in
- 34:20every group. So it's the sum of
- 34:23five which is the first n, right? N one
- 34:27is five.
- 34:28Mean the first mean
- 34:31is 35.
- 34:3335
- 34:34minus the grand mean
- 34:3628
- 34:3833. When we subtract that, we're going
- 34:41to square it.
- 34:44That's
- 34:45group one.
- 34:46Now we're going to do group two.
- 34:48So, the n is again for group two is also
- 34:51five.
- 34:52But the mean for group two is 30.
- 34:5630
- 34:57The grand mean is still 28 33 squared.
- 35:01Then we're going to do it for group
- 35:02three. The n is still five.
- 35:06But the mean for group three is 20.
- 35:1020 - 28 33 squared.
- 35:15Now, all that's happening is we're
- 35:17staying n1 m1 n2 m2 n3 m3.
- 35:25That's all that's happening.
- 35:26We're getting the sum of all that. So
- 35:28we're going to subtract this 35 subtract
- 35:3128 33 from 35 whenever we get from for
- 35:35that result
- 35:37for for that difference, we're going to
- 35:38square it and then we're going to
- 35:39multiply it by five.
- 35:41Do that same thing again. Subtract 28 33
- 35:43from 30. Whatever that difference is,
- 35:46square it, then multiply that by five.
- 35:48Do the same thing.
- 35:50Subtract 28 33 from 20, which is going
- 35:52to be a negative number.
- 35:54Then square it, which is going to get
- 35:55rid of the negative number and then
- 35:57multiply it by five.
- 35:59So I could do that in the calculator
- 36:02very, very quickly by entering in into
- 36:05the data. Let me show you that. Let's
- 36:07clear the data again. Second reset.
- 36:11Yes.
- 36:13Clear.
- 36:14We're going to enter three calculations
- 36:16and the calculator is going to resolve
- 36:19this for us.
- 36:22But let's do it by ourselves so we can
- 36:23see.
- 36:2535 -
- 36:2728
- 36:30.33
- 36:32is 6.67
- 36:37squared
- 36:41times five
- 36:45is two two, two.
- 36:49Oh, it's here.
- 36:51Six.
- 36:54Let me go back.
- 37:0035 minus 28
- 37:0433
- 37:066.67
- 37:086.67
- 37:10We want to square that
- 37:12and we want to multiply it by five.
- 37:15Right?
- 37:16Square it
- 37:18and then multiply it by five
- 37:21equals two,
- 37:23two, two,
- 37:25four,
- 37:26four.
- 37:28Right? Now watch when I enter it into
- 37:30the calculator just like that, I could
- 37:32enter five
- 37:34parentheses
- 37:3735 minus 28.33
- 37:40square.
- 37:42I just entered that whole calculation
- 37:47and I should get 222
- 37:49.44.
- 37:51I did.
- 37:52And now since I want to add all of this
- 37:54up, I'm going to add each one of these
- 37:57into the calculator just like I just did
- 38:00for the
- 38:03data values
- 38:04and have the calculator give us the
- 38:06whole total.
- 38:08Again, make sure that the
- 38:11memory is cleared.
- 38:14Second data Well, one variable data.
- 38:18So this is going to be X1, this is going
- 38:21to be X2, this is going to be X3. So all
- 38:24I do now is
- 38:28five parentheses 35 minus 28 .33
- 38:33squared.
- 38:35Move down. I only want one of those.
- 38:38Now do the same thing for X2. Five
- 38:40parentheses 30
- 38:42minus 28 33 squared.
- 38:45One those.
- 38:48Five.
- 38:51Parentheses 20 - 28 33 squared.
- 38:58Now, if I go back
- 39:00see what it has for X 1.
- 39:05This is what the answer is for X 2.
- 39:08This is the answer for X 3.
- 39:10If I press stat variable, I can get the
- 39:12sum of that. We can see that the N is
- 39:15three cuz there are the three. We don't
- 39:17need the mean. We actually need to keep
- 39:20going
- 39:21to get the sum.
- 39:23That is the sum of X.
- 39:25So the sum of squares between is 583
- 39:3233.
- 39:34So if we go back
- 39:36and enter that as number one, 583
- 39:4133.
- 39:43So we have our sum of squares
- 39:45between.
- 39:47Now the formula for sum of squares
- 39:50within
- 39:52is
- 39:54just as simple. It's just there's much
- 39:56more of it.
- 39:58The formula is
- 40:00the sum of X IJ
- 40:03- MJ squared.
- 40:07So essentially what this means is every
- 40:09X within its set
- 40:12- the mean of that set squared.
- 40:18So
- 40:21if you look at it, it's tedious, but
- 40:24it's super easy.
- 40:26It looks like this.
- 40:28Group one.
- 40:32X I, this is X 1, X 2, X 3, X 4, X 5
- 40:37within group one. This is X 1, X 2, X 3,
- 40:40X 4, X 5 within group two.
- 40:431 2 3 4 5 within group three. And these
- 40:46are the means for each of those groups.
- 40:49So it it goes like this.
- 40:5125 which is X 1 within group 1 minus the
- 40:56group the mean for group 1 which is 35
- 41:00squared plus
- 41:02X 2 which is 30 within group 1 30 minus
- 41:0535
- 41:07squared plus
- 41:0935 which is X 3 minus 35
- 41:13squared plus
- 41:1540 minus 35
- 41:17squared plus
- 41:1945 minus 35
- 41:22squared plus
- 41:24Now you can see I've just done 25 minus
- 41:2635 30 minus
- 41:2925 minus 35 plus squared plus 30 minus
- 41:3235
- 41:34squared plus 35 minus 35 we're just
- 41:36doing that again and again and again.
- 41:40So for group 2
- 41:42you can see that it starts with 20 so 20
- 41:46minus 30 squared plus 25 minus 30
- 41:49squared and we would just keep going
- 41:51like that.
- 41:53So 20
- 41:55minus 30
- 41:57squared plus
- 41:5925 minus 30
- 42:02squared plus
- 42:0530 minus 30
- 42:07squared plus
- 42:0935 minus 30
- 42:11squared plus
- 42:1240
- 42:13minus 30
- 42:15squared
- 42:16plus
- 42:18and in 3
- 42:21that would be
- 42:2310 minus 20 squared plus
- 42:2810 minus 20 squared plus
- 42:3215 minus 20
- 42:34squared plus
- 42:3620 minus 20
- 42:38squared plus
- 42:3925 minus 20
- 42:42squared plus
- 42:4330 minus 20
- 42:45squared.
- 42:48Now
- 42:49even though that looks gnarly it is
- 42:51super simple. Because
- 42:5425 minus 35 is 10.
- 42:5810 squared is 100.
- 43:0230 minus 35 is 5.
- 43:065 squared is 25.
- 43:0935 minus 35 is 0. 0 squared is 0.
- 43:1440 minus 35 is
- 43:17uh
- 43:185.
- 43:225 squared
- 43:2325.
- 43:2545 minus
- 43:2635 is 10.
- 43:2810 squared is 100. Look, 100, 200, 225,
- 43:34250.
- 43:35So this first line is 250.
- 43:39Super easy, right? Look at this.
- 43:4110 minus 20 minus 30
- 43:44-10. Actually, this should have been
- 43:46negative, but it doesn't really matter.
- 43:4825 minus 35 is -10, but -10 squared is
- 43:52still 100.
- 43:5420 minus 30 is -10.
- 43:58-10 squared is 100. So it's really the
- 44:00same pattern. 25 minus 30
- 44:04is -5.
- 44:065 -5 squared is 25. So I gave you a
- 44:09nice, neat
- 44:11pattern which you can easily see.
- 44:19Only because this data set fell the way
- 44:22that it fell, or I designed it this way
- 44:24so that you could see the calculation is
- 44:27very easy.
- 44:29Um it wouldn't be as straightforward
- 44:31with different values, but it's still
- 44:34the same process. You take x minus the
- 44:38mean of that uh that group and then
- 44:40square it. So 250 + 250 + 250 3 250s is
- 44:477
- 44:4850. So the sum of squares
- 44:51within
- 44:53is 750.
- 44:55Go back to our ANOVA.
- 44:58750.
- 45:00So now the total,
- 45:02sum of squares total is sum of squares
- 45:04between plus sum of squares within.
- 45:07That's the total.
- 45:10583.33
- 45:13+ 750
- 45:171,333.33.
- 45:25See?
- 45:26Not that hard.
- 45:28Now
- 45:29we need the mean square uh between and
- 45:32the mean square
- 45:33uh
- 45:34within.
- 45:36So
- 45:40to get the mean square between, it's the
- 45:43sum of square between divided by the
- 45:46degrees of freedom between. So you just
- 45:48divide these.
- 45:51583.33
- 45:53divided by 2
- 45:55equals
- 45:57291.66
- 46:005 so 67 291.67.
- 46:05We do the same thing for the mean square
- 46:07within. It is the sum of square within
- 46:11divided by degrees of freedom within or
- 46:14750 divided by 12
- 46:1962
- 46:21.5.
- 46:24And now we need the F statistic. We just
- 46:27divide the mean square between from the
- 46:31mean square within or 291.67
- 46:35divided by 62.5.
- 46:37And if this number is greater
- 46:40than uh our F critical of 3.88 we're
- 46:44going to reject the null hypothesis.
- 46:49291.67
- 46:51divided by 62.5
- 46:544.666
- 46:56or 4.67.
- 46:59Look at that.
- 47:004.67 is definitely in the rejection zone
- 47:03because it's greater than 3.88.
- 47:07So we reject the null hypothesis.
- 47:10At least one parent's group strategy is
- 47:15different.
- 47:16Creates a different uh sleep time for
- 47:18children.
- 47:20We don't know which one.
- 47:22At least one group is different, but we
- 47:23can't tell which one.
- 47:26And just like we had uh a little bit of
- 47:29a different process for ANOVA for
- 47:32calculating the test statistic, we have
- 47:34a different strategy for calculating the
- 47:36effect size.
- 47:38It's called eta
- 47:40squared.
- 47:43The eta squared's formula is very
- 47:46simple. It's the sum of squares between
- 47:49divided by the sum of squares total.
- 47:52We know what those values are.
- 47:55The sum of squares between is 583.33.
- 47:59The sum of squares total is 133
- 48:011,333.33.
- 48:06So 583
- 48:09.33
- 48:11divided by 1,333
- 48:14.33
- 48:22583.33
- 48:24divided by 1,333
- 48:26.33
- 48:30We get
- 48:31.437
- 48:34so 0.4
- 48:374
- 48:38which means
- 48:3944%
- 48:41of the variation within the data set
- 48:44is being determined by
- 48:49which group you're in.
- 48:51And the ANOVA
- 48:55or eta squared just like Cohen's d, we
- 48:58use 0.2,
- 49:010.5,
- 49:020.8 for small, moderate, and large. We
- 49:06use a slightly different scale for
- 49:11at a square.
- 49:13Just want to check that before I tell
- 49:15you.
- 49:19Uh my brain remembers that it's 0.01,
- 49:230.09,
- 49:25point 25.
- 49:28Let's go check though.
- 49:31It's a lot of stuff in my brain.
- 49:55I need to add a squared.
- 50:02I'm still in chapter 10.
- 50:06Got to let that go.
- 50:08Let's go to chapter 11
- 50:11for anovas.
- 50:13There we are.
- 50:20While we're here, let me just stop and
- 50:22show you again the sum of squares
- 50:24between formula
- 50:28and the sum of squares within formula.
- 50:33Sum of squares total. This is really the
- 50:36same thing. You don't have to compute it
- 50:39this way. You can just add sum of
- 50:40squares between the sum of squares
- 50:42uh within, but here's the formula for it
- 50:45as well. This is a more simple formula.
- 50:48You could perform the calculation, but
- 50:50since you already have the sum of
- 50:51squares between and the sum of squares
- 50:53within, just add them together.
- 50:55Here is what you just saw me work out in
- 50:58the anova table.
- 51:00Sum of squares between, sum of squares
- 51:02within, sum of squares total.
- 51:04The degrees of freedom for between was k
- 51:06- 1.
- 51:08Within was n - k or 2 over 12 and this
- 51:12is just these two added up together. So
- 51:142 + 13 is 14.
- 51:20And uh
- 51:22we went to the F table to get 2 over 12
- 51:26for the critical value which was 3.88.
- 51:30Here we see that the mean square is just
- 51:32sum of squares between divided by
- 51:34degrees of freedom between.
- 51:36Right? So that's how we got that so far.
- 51:40I was trying to find
- 51:42eta squared.
- 51:49There we are.
- 51:52I was right.
- 51:54.01 is small.
- 51:57.09 is medium and .25 is large. We got
- 52:02.44 which is large. But it's also
- 52:05telling us how much is being driven by
- 52:10how much variation is being driven by
- 52:12the
- 52:13belonging to a particular group. And
- 52:15having .44 means that 44%
- 52:20of the variation in the sample is being
- 52:23driven by whether you are in group one,
- 52:27group two, or group three, which is a
- 52:28large effect.
- 52:31So all we have to do now is
- 52:33write out the decision, right?
- 52:35Let's head back over to the map.
- 52:39Oh, one more thing. I actually want to
- 52:40calculate the standard deviation for
- 52:44each one. But I want to show you
- 52:45something that I think may clear up
- 52:50standard deviation.
- 52:52You notice that this data set is pretty
- 52:55uniform, meaning it varies by five.
- 53:00And they vary this way by five. So they
- 53:04vary by five this way within.
- 53:07But they vary by uh there's a
- 53:09difference. This was varying by five,
- 53:11but this one's varying by ten. So, you
- 53:13can perhaps guess that this group is
- 53:17different than the others, but we can't
- 53:19know that without a post hoc test.
- 53:22We need the standard deviation for each
- 53:24group. And I think you're going to see
- 53:26something interesting because this is a
- 53:28unified or uniform data set about the
- 53:31standard deviation.
- 53:33We'll use the calculator again to uh
- 53:37calculate the standard deviation of
- 53:39data set one or N one. Let's clear
- 53:43the data.
- 53:44Second and reset.
- 53:46Yes.
- 53:47Clear.
- 53:48Second and data.
- 53:50One
- 53:52and one variable and data. So, it's
- 53:54ready for X one. Let's do
- 53:58uh group one. 25 30 35 40 45.
- 54:0225
- 54:0430
- 54:0635
- 54:0840
- 54:1045 just so that you can see.
- 54:12Stat variable will give us the data.
- 54:15So, the N size is five. We know that.
- 54:19The mean or X bar is 35.
- 54:23We know that.
- 54:25The standard deviation is 7.905
- 54:28or 7.91.
- 54:357.91.
- 54:38And would you guess that that would also
- 54:41be the standard deviation for group two?
- 54:45Let's see.
- 54:47Let's clear the data.
- 54:57Let's do 20 25 30 35 40.
- 55:0020
- 55:0225
- 55:0430
- 55:0545
- 55:0740
- 55:10N is five.
- 55:12The mean is thirty.
- 55:15Look at the standard deviation.
- 55:177.91
- 55:20Now, why is that?
- 55:23Because it doesn't matter
- 55:27that the means are different because
- 55:30once we take the mean out,
- 55:33they're all varying by five.
- 55:36That doesn't happen in real life and
- 55:39real data, but it helps you see that
- 55:42what we're talking about when we're
- 55:43talking about the standard deviation
- 55:45because that came up a lot
- 55:47in the radio, the call-in radio show,
- 55:50and it comes up
- 55:52I as I read through your comments in
- 55:54your group decision, but your group
- 55:56discussion,
- 55:57we can see that because there is uniform
- 56:01variation, the standard deviation for
- 56:04each of these groups, even though the
- 56:05means are different, are all going to be
- 56:077.91.
- 56:12We need that when we're reporting the
- 56:14decision.
- 56:16So,
- 56:18four.
- 56:19Based on
- 56:22the collected data
- 56:28from
- 56:30parents,
- 56:32we want to tell
- 56:33who's reading, anyone who's reading
- 56:34this, what the N size was. Capital N was
- 56:3815. That tells
- 56:40the reader that our entire data set was
- 56:4215.
- 56:45Parents using
- 56:49uh
- 56:54child ready
- 56:57for bed,
- 57:01that mean was
- 57:0435.
- 57:06The standard deviation Oh, here.
- 57:10N one is 5. We need to know that.
- 57:14M1
- 57:15is 35
- 57:18and standard deviation 1 is 7.91.
- 57:23That's the first one. Ciao. Ready for
- 57:25bed? Then child negotiates.
- 57:33N2 is 5.
- 57:36M2 is
- 57:3930
- 57:41and standard deviation 2 was
- 57:44you guessed it 7.91.
- 57:46And
- 57:49strict bedtime.
- 57:55N3 is 5. M3 was 20
- 58:00and SD 3 was
- 58:037.91.
- 58:05There is
- 58:08sufficient
- 58:11evidence
- 58:14to reject
- 58:16the null
- 58:18hypothesis.
- 58:23And ANOVA
- 58:25revealed
- 58:28that
- 58:29effect
- 58:32was
- 58:34large.
- 58:35And then report the F statistic. F
- 58:392
- 58:40and
- 58:4212.
- 58:43Those are our degrees of freedom, 2 and
- 58:4512
- 58:48equals
- 58:494.67.
- 58:51That was our F obtained. And because we
- 58:54rejected the null hypothesis, the
- 58:56probability is less than 0.05 because we
- 58:59are using an alpha of 0.05, which is the
- 59:02only kind of alpha for an ANOVA that we
- 59:04can do by hand.
- 59:07And the eta squared is 0.44.
- 59:11This
- 59:15that
- 59:16approximately
- 59:2144%
- 59:23of the variation
- 59:28is
- 59:29um
- 59:31driven
- 59:33by
- 59:35the
- 59:36group
- 59:39parent style.
- 59:43Meaning either
- 59:45child ready, child negotiation, or child
- 59:48strict bedtime.
- 59:51Okay.
- 59:53Take a breath.
- 59:55I can't believe I did all that. I made
- 59:57some mistakes. I did that all in one
- 59:59take. I'm not going to
- 1:00:00edit anything out.
- 1:00:03Let's just take a quick review of what
- 1:00:04we've done. We started out with our
- 1:00:07question.
- 1:00:09Does the bedtime strategy parents use
- 1:00:11relate to how long it takes their
- 1:00:12children to go to bed? That's the
- 1:00:14question.
- 1:00:16We started out with a question
- 1:00:17and we then started out with our
- 1:00:20hypotheses if there is no difference in
- 1:00:23children's sleep time based on parent
- 1:00:25strategy because we realized that we
- 1:00:27were going to examine three different
- 1:00:30parental strategies.
- 1:00:31Parent allows the child to go to bed
- 1:00:33when they want to
- 1:00:35or the child negotiates or the child
- 1:00:38goes to bed at a strict bedtime.
- 1:00:42So in the real world, we would go out
- 1:00:44and recruit
- 1:00:46data. We would recruit participants. We
- 1:00:48would collect data from people who have
- 1:00:51the information because we have the
- 1:00:52question.
- 1:00:54You saw the recruitment flyer. We were
- 1:00:56looking for five in each group. We
- 1:00:58weren't asking parents to change their
- 1:01:00strategy. We're just telling asking them
- 1:01:02to agree if they use one of those three
- 1:01:06strategies.
- 1:01:07And we got
- 1:01:09five parents in each strategy.
- 1:01:12And
- 1:01:14we continue with our well, our null
- 1:01:16hypothesis again is that there's no
- 1:01:18difference in children's sleep time
- 1:01:19based on parent strategy, mu 1 equals mu
- 1:01:222 equals mu 3 which is there is no
- 1:01:24difference in the population.
- 1:01:27Our alternative hypothesis is at least
- 1:01:29one parent's strategy is different,
- 1:01:31which is all we can do. We don't even
- 1:01:33have a mathematical way to express that.
- 1:01:37We got our data from each of the groups,
- 1:01:4125 30 35 40 45 and that follows through
- 1:01:45for child ready child negotiate no,
- 1:01:48child negotiate
- 1:01:49negotiated strategy or negotiated
- 1:01:52bedtime and child strict bedtime.
- 1:01:55We used that to create the mean for each
- 1:01:59group, 35 30 and 20 which we could see
- 1:02:02easily. We could have added those up,
- 1:02:04divided them by five, but we would have
- 1:02:05gotten the same thing.
- 1:02:08We acknowledge
- 1:02:10our data by putting the
- 1:02:13all the stuff that we need in these
- 1:02:15on the map. N 1 equals N 2 equals N 3
- 1:02:18which happens to be the way it is for
- 1:02:20this data set, but they don't all all
- 1:02:23have to be the same data just like an
- 1:02:26independent sample t test.
- 1:02:28So we say N 1 equals N 2 equals N 3 and
- 1:02:31they all equal five.
- 1:02:33Capital N is the whole data set of 15
- 1:02:38and K stands for how many groups we
- 1:02:40have.
- 1:02:42We used
- 1:02:44the all of the data in the 15 the 15
- 1:02:49data values in the data set to create
- 1:02:51the grand mean of 28.33.
- 1:02:56We also went back and figured out the
- 1:02:58standard deviation and because they all
- 1:03:01vary by five, we got the that
- 1:03:04they vary around the mean by 7.91
- 1:03:09minutes.
- 1:03:12Then we got introduced to the ANOVA
- 1:03:14table which is like the sum of squares
- 1:03:16table. We're going to use a table like
- 1:03:17that again in
- 1:03:19uh chapter 12 for correlations
- 1:03:22next week and chapter 13 for linear
- 1:03:25squares
- 1:03:27or linear regression, sorry.
- 1:03:30So we need force sum of squares, degrees
- 1:03:32of freedom, mean square, and the F
- 1:03:35statistic.
- 1:03:36Between variation, between group
- 1:03:38variation, within group variation, and
- 1:03:40total is the source.
- 1:03:43We found out what our degrees of freedom
- 1:03:45were by using the critical value
- 1:03:48formula, degrees of freedom between over
- 1:03:50degrees of freedom within. That formula
- 1:03:52is K - 1 over N - K.
- 1:03:56K is three, three groups, 3 - 1 is two.
- 1:04:00N - K, there are 15 in the data set,
- 1:04:02there are three group, 15 - 3 is 12. We
- 1:04:07went to the F
- 1:04:09table to find 2 over 12 and we got 3.88
- 1:04:12as our critical value. We drew out the
- 1:04:14curve, but you don't really need to draw
- 1:04:16it out.
- 1:04:19And we placed that in our ANOVA table
- 1:04:22two
- 1:04:23for between group uh between degrees of
- 1:04:26degrees of freedom between and for 12
- 1:04:28for degrees of freedom within, and 2 +
- 1:04:3112 is 14.
- 1:04:33We then had to figure out the sum of
- 1:04:35squares between, the sum of squares
- 1:04:37within, and then we added that to find
- 1:04:39the sum of squares total.
- 1:04:42How we figured out the sum of squares
- 1:04:43between, it's the sum of NJ times MJ -
- 1:04:48grand mean squared.
- 1:04:51So we just plugged in
- 1:04:52five, five, five because those are uh
- 1:04:55this is N1, this is N2, this is N3. They
- 1:04:58happen to all be the same number, but
- 1:05:00they could be different numbers.
- 1:05:03So uh N1 could have five, N2 could have
- 1:05:0712, and N3 could have 18. So this would
- 1:05:10be 5, 12, and 18 instead of 5, 5, and 5.
- 1:05:14Then we put in the mean for each group
- 1:05:18and we subtracted the grand mean and
- 1:05:20squared it.
- 1:05:22I showed you how we just simply
- 1:05:24subtracted the grand mean from the group
- 1:05:27mean, squared it, and then multiplied it
- 1:05:30by n, which happened to be five.
- 1:05:32When we added that all up, the sum of
- 1:05:34squares between was
- 1:05:3658.
- 1:05:37583.33.
- 1:05:39We plugged it in there.
- 1:05:41And then we figured out the sum of
- 1:05:43squares within.
- 1:05:45That formula is the sum of X IJ - MJ,
- 1:05:50which is really just every X - the
- 1:05:53individual mean for that group squared.
- 1:05:57When we take this, you got to see that
- 1:05:59this is a pretty simple formula. It's
- 1:06:01just tedious.
- 1:06:0325 - 35 is -10. -10 squared is 100.
- 1:06:0930 - 35 is -5 squared. -5 squared is 25.
- 1:06:1635 - 35 is 0. 0 squared is 0. 40 - 35
- 1:06:235. 5 squared 25.
- 1:06:2545 - 35 10. 10 squared is 100. You saw
- 1:06:29that pattern. So it was just 100
- 1:06:32100
- 1:06:33100 25 25 or 100 or 220 250 for each
- 1:06:38line. When we add them all up, the sum
- 1:06:40of squares within was 750.
- 1:06:44We put that in our sum of squares
- 1:06:46within. We added 583.33
- 1:06:51to 750 and we got 1,333.33
- 1:06:54as the sum of squares total.
- 1:06:58We already put the degrees of freedom
- 1:06:59between and within.
- 1:07:01And we used them to figure out the mean
- 1:07:03square between and within. So mean
- 1:07:06square between is sum of squares between
- 1:07:09divided by degrees of freedom between or
- 1:07:11583.33
- 1:07:13divided by 2, which is 291.67.
- 1:07:17The mean square within is sum of squares
- 1:07:20within divided by degrees of freedom
- 1:07:22within or 750 divided by 12 which is
- 1:07:2562.5.
- 1:07:27F statistic is mean square between
- 1:07:30divided by mean square within which is
- 1:07:324.67.
- 1:07:34That is beyond our F critical. We reject
- 1:07:39the null hypothesis. They are not the
- 1:07:41same. At least one parent's strategy is
- 1:07:44different, but we can't tell which one
- 1:07:46it is without a post hoc test.
- 1:07:49So then we figure out the effect size
- 1:07:52using eta squared. This is eta squared.
- 1:07:57This is the eta um character in the
- 1:07:59Greek alphabet. It looks like a kind of
- 1:08:01a cursive N with a little flip up.
- 1:08:04Eta squared. That formula is sum of
- 1:08:06squares between divided by sum of
- 1:08:08squares total
- 1:08:10or
- 1:08:11583.33
- 1:08:12divided by 1,333.33
- 1:08:16which is what we did here. We got 0.44
- 1:08:19which means 44% of the variation that
- 1:08:22exist in the data set is being driven by
- 1:08:25whether you belong in one of these
- 1:08:27groups
- 1:08:29which is a strong
- 1:08:32or large effect.
- 1:08:340.01
- 1:08:350.09 and 0.25 is small, moderate, and
- 1:08:40large.
- 1:08:41And then finally we write out the
- 1:08:45decision. Based on the collected data
- 1:08:47from parents N equals 15 using child
- 1:08:50ready for bed
- 1:08:52N 1 is 5 M 1 is 35
- 1:08:56standard standard deviation 1 is 7.91.
- 1:08:59You know that's going to be 7.91 for
- 1:09:00every group.
- 1:09:02Child negotiates N 2 equals 5 M 2 equals
- 1:09:0530. So they're different, right?
- 1:09:07Standard deviation 2 is 7.91 and strict
- 1:09:10bedtime N 3 equals 5 M 3 equals 20 set
- 1:09:14standard deviation 3 is 7.91.
- 1:09:17There is sufficient evidence to reject
- 1:09:19the null hypothesis.
- 1:09:21A null an ANOVA sorry and revealed that
- 1:09:24the effect was large.
- 1:09:26Report the F statistic F 2 comma 12
- 1:09:30which are are are
- 1:09:32degrees of freedom.
- 1:09:34And because we rejected the null
- 1:09:35hypothesis, the probability is less than
- 1:09:380.05. If we fail to reject the null
- 1:09:40hypothesis it it
- 1:09:42fail to reject the null hypothesis it
- 1:09:44would be probability is greater than
- 1:09:460.05.
- 1:09:47And the eta square is 0.44 0.44. This
- 1:09:51means that approximately 44% of the
- 1:09:53variation is driven by the group parent
- 1:09:56style.
- 1:09:57All right.
- 1:10:00Now
- 1:10:02that might have seemed like a lot.
- 1:10:05I'm going to give you extra credit
- 1:10:07points
- 1:10:09or extra assignment points cuz I don't
- 1:10:10give extra credit. Extra assignment
- 1:10:12points for doing one of for doing this
- 1:10:16data set exactly the way I've written it
- 1:10:19out.
- 1:10:20I want to continue to stress that if you
- 1:10:22see me write all of this out
- 1:10:25you write all of it out.
- 1:10:27I want to see everything so that I can
- 1:10:29follow what you're doing so that you can
- 1:10:32get full credit. You won't get full
- 1:10:35credit if I don't see
- 1:10:38um
- 1:10:39you writing out the full strategy. And
- 1:10:43for this problem
- 1:10:45I want to see the standard deviation for
- 1:10:48the data set.
- 1:10:507.9 I want to I want to see that on your
- 1:10:52calculator.
- 1:10:54And
- 1:10:56I want you to write out the full
- 1:10:58decision. Everything that I write is
- 1:11:00what I want you to write.
- 1:11:04And there you have it.
- 1:11:06We just computed our first ANOVA.
- 1:11:09And again, remember the Sesame Street
- 1:11:10question. One of these things is not
- 1:11:13like the other.
- 1:11:15Well, our ANOVA
- 1:11:17lets us or tells us at least one of
- 1:11:20these population means is different. But
- 1:11:23we still don't again know exactly which
- 1:11:25one. That's a question for for analysis.
- 1:11:27Here's what I want you to remember.
- 1:11:29Statistics doesn't begin with a formula.
- 1:11:33Statistics begins with a question,
- 1:11:35curiosity.
- 1:11:37The formula is simply tools
- 1:11:40to help us
- 1:11:41investigate the things that we're
- 1:11:43curious about.
- 1:11:44And ANOVA gives us a way to find a
- 1:11:47signal in all that noise.
- 1:11:51That's chapter 11. I'm looking forward
- 1:11:53to our
- 1:11:57live lecture this week.
- 1:12:00We're going to explore this a little bit
- 1:12:02further and I'll be able to answer any
- 1:12:04questions and sort of set you up for
- 1:12:06chapter 11 exercises. Having said that,
- 1:12:09as always,
- 1:12:10I'm super excited to see
- 1:12:13all the statistics you find this week.
- 1:12:16And can you believe we are only just a
- 1:12:18few chapters left?
- 1:12:20Chapter 12, chapter 13, chapter 14, and
- 1:12:23then
- 1:12:24we have our final exam. So our time
- 1:12:26together is coming to an end. And I hope
- 1:12:29what you can say is that
- 1:12:32even though you walked into this course
- 1:12:33with
- 1:12:35a pretty severe
- 1:12:37math wound,
- 1:12:40that
- 1:12:42you practiced,
- 1:12:44you focused,
- 1:12:46and you
- 1:12:47made a big, significant, maybe even
- 1:12:50statistically significant
- 1:12:53dent in reducing that anxiety, that math
- 1:12:56wound, and finding that you are,
- 1:13:00I don't know,
- 1:13:03a rock star.
- 1:13:04I'll see you this week.
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