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Briefing #11 - PSYC/SOC-270-580 — Transcript

by Dr. Jaime, Your Adjunct Professor · 8,334 words · 1,669 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:07Oh, statistics scholars, Dr. McNeal
  2. 0:09here. Welcome back.
  3. 0:12Today we're going
  4. 0:14to introduce you to
  5. 0:17a brand new statistical procedure. What
  6. 0:20else is new, right?
  7. 0:22Analysis of variance or ANOVA. ANOVA
  8. 0:26stands for analysis AN of O variance VA.
  9. 0:32Now we've been doing a lot of
  10. 0:33mathematics over the last several weeks,
  11. 0:35but I want to continue to remind you
  12. 0:38that
  13. 0:39statistics is the study of language.
  14. 0:42It's not the study of math.
  15. 0:44You know by this time that there is
  16. 0:47statistics or there is math involved in
  17. 0:49statistics, but it's not complicated
  18. 0:52math. It's not big math. It's not much
  19. 0:54more than adding and subtracting,
  20. 0:56multiplying, dividing, and exponents and
  21. 0:59square roots. You've gotten much more
  22. 1:01comfortable doing all of that over the
  23. 1:05past what 11 12 weeks.
  24. 1:08Statistics hasn't gotten more
  25. 1:11complicated.
  26. 1:13It's gotten a little bit more complex,
  27. 1:15but not more complicated.
  28. 1:17We've calculated mean, standard
  29. 1:19deviations, standard errors, Z scores, T
  30. 1:24statistics for one sample, paired
  31. 1:26samples, and independent samples,
  32. 1:29confidence intervals, and effect sizes.
  33. 1:32And I want to make sure that we haven't
  34. 1:34lost sight of something very important.
  35. 1:37Now I know we've been sort of jumping in
  36. 1:40doing a lot of calculations of problems,
  37. 1:44but really in statistics none of the
  38. 1:46work that we do begins with a formula.
  39. 1:50It actually begins with a research
  40. 1:52question.
  41. 1:54So as scholars, we're interested in
  42. 1:56something that's actually happening in
  43. 1:58the world, something that we don't
  44. 2:00understand, something that we're curious
  45. 2:03about.
  46. 2:04And so we develop a research question
  47. 2:07because we want to learn something.
  48. 2:09Then we decide how to collect the
  49. 2:12evidence that might help us answer that
  50. 2:14question.
  51. 2:16Only after we've done all of that do we
  52. 2:19turn to the statistical analyses. And I
  53. 2:22want to
  54. 2:23begin to show you that moving forward
  55. 2:26because you have enough statistics
  56. 2:28underneath your belt that now we're
  57. 2:30going to move into the world of
  58. 2:32research. Remember, this course is um
  59. 2:35statistics for the psychological
  60. 2:37sciences.
  61. 2:40So today we're going to begin with a set
  62. 2:42of numbers and
  63. 2:45No, actually
  64. 2:46instead of starting with a set of
  65. 2:49numbers, I'm going to ask you
  66. 2:52No.
  67. 2:53Today, instead of starting with a set of
  68. 2:55numbers and asking you to calculate
  69. 2:58something, we're going to begin where
  70. 3:00researchers actually begin
  71. 3:02with a question.
  72. 3:05And I'm also committed to doing
  73. 3:06something else today
  74. 3:09that follows up in what I did last week.
  75. 3:12I'm going to show you all the mistakes I
  76. 3:13make.
  77. 3:15I'm not going to clean it all up in the
  78. 3:17edit so that it's nice and pretty. I
  79. 3:19want you to hear
  80. 3:20the effort that it takes.
  81. 3:23Now, I've worked out the scenario that
  82. 3:25I'm going to present to you today, but
  83. 3:28I might make a mistake along the way.
  84. 3:31And in fact,
  85. 3:33if I make a mistake, I'm going to offer
  86. 3:35you
  87. 3:3710 points for every mistake I make.
  88. 3:40How's that?
  89. 3:42So
  90. 3:44let's begin.
  91. 3:45Let's imagine that I'm a researcher.
  92. 3:48Well, we don't really have to imagine
  93. 3:50that because I am a researcher.
  94. 3:52But let's imagine that you are a
  95. 3:53researcher with me. And we're interested
  96. 3:56in children and their parents.
  97. 4:00More specifically, we're interested what
  98. 4:03parents do to get their children to go
  99. 4:07to bed.
  100. 4:08Because as many of you know, parents
  101. 4:10have different strategies.
  102. 4:12Some parents have a set bedtime.
  103. 4:158:00 means
  104. 4:178:00.
  105. 4:19Other parents negotiate with their
  106. 4:20children. Maybe tonight it's 8:00,
  107. 4:23tomorrow it's 8:30.
  108. 4:25There's a little discussion involved.
  109. 4:28And still other parents allow their
  110. 4:30children to decide
  111. 4:31when they're ready to bed, when they're
  112. 4:33ready to go to bed. I don't know who
  113. 4:34those parents are, but they exist.
  114. 4:36There are three different approaches.
  115. 4:39And and we're curious about something.
  116. 4:42Does the bedtime strategy parents use
  117. 4:45relate to how long it takes their
  118. 4:47children to fall asleep?
  119. 4:49That's our research question. In fact,
  120. 4:52I'm going to go to the map
  121. 4:54and start
  122. 4:55populating the map
  123. 4:59in a different way.
  124. 5:01We'll start with, again,
  125. 5:04research question.
  126. 5:07Uh does the bedtime
  127. 5:13strategy
  128. 5:17parents use
  129. 5:21relate to how long
  130. 5:27uh
  131. 5:28that it takes their children to go to
  132. 5:29bed.
  133. 5:40That's a legitimate question.
  134. 5:42Now, we may already have some idea about
  135. 5:46what we're going to find, but that's not
  136. 5:48how research works. We have to
  137. 5:52go to the research with an open mind
  138. 5:56to discover something.
  139. 5:59Now, we're going to find out instead of
  140. 6:04getting information or getting data from
  141. 6:06the textbook. Let's show you what it
  142. 6:09really what really happens.
  143. 6:11We would recruit parents
  144. 6:14so that we can find out
  145. 6:17what they do.
  146. 6:18But before we recruit anybody,
  147. 6:21before we collect a single observation,
  148. 6:25we need to establish our hypotheses.
  149. 6:27Remember, we've been doing that since
  150. 6:29chapter seven.
  151. 6:31So the first step is again our null
  152. 6:32hypothesis.
  153. 6:34Uh
  154. 6:35our null hypothesis states that there's
  155. 6:37no difference among the population mean.
  156. 6:39So in other words,
  157. 6:40there is
  158. 6:42no difference
  159. 6:47in
  160. 6:48children
  161. 6:51sleep time
  162. 6:54based on
  163. 6:58parents'
  164. 7:01strategy.
  165. 7:04There's no difference.
  166. 7:06Now for an ANOVA, that's different than
  167. 7:08we've done with one sample, paired
  168. 7:12samples, and independent samples, we're
  169. 7:15actually working with three or more
  170. 7:19uh
  171. 7:20three or more
  172. 7:21samples or three or more categories. So
  173. 7:23how we write that mathematically is mu
  174. 7:26one
  175. 7:27equals mu two
  176. 7:29equals mu
  177. 7:30three. That corresponds to the three
  178. 7:34uh strategy strategies that we just said
  179. 7:36that parents use. Parents can either use
  180. 7:39a kids go to bed when they decide, kids
  181. 7:42negotiate, or kids adhere to a strict
  182. 7:44bedtime. So that's mu one, mu two, and
  183. 7:46mu three.
  184. 7:49So we're saying in other words that no
  185. 7:50matter
  186. 7:52what the bedtime strategy parents use,
  187. 7:54the average time it takes uh for
  188. 7:56children to fall asleep is the same.
  189. 7:59Now our alternative hypothesis is a
  190. 8:02little bit different than what we've
  191. 8:03done up till now.
  192. 8:06Because we're calculating the ANOVAs by
  193. 8:08hand, we can't say for sure
  194. 8:12that we can find one or the other. So
  195. 8:15all we really say for anova
  196. 8:18uh when we're doing it by hand is at
  197. 8:21least one group is different. At least
  198. 8:27one parent's
  199. 8:30strategy
  200. 8:33is different.
  201. 8:36We can't say
  202. 8:38um
  203. 8:40that it's a tail test to the right or to
  204. 8:42the left. In fact, we're doing what's
  205. 8:44called a one way anova.
  206. 8:49We can only look in one direction.
  207. 8:52So again, notice here we're not just
  208. 8:54comparing two groups. We have three
  209. 8:55groups and that's why we need an anova.
  210. 8:59Our t tests have prepared us to compare
  211. 9:01means between two conditions, but anova
  212. 9:04allows us to examine differences among
  213. 9:06three or more groups in a single overall
  214. 9:10analysis.
  215. 9:11And again,
  216. 9:12here's something else to remember. If
  217. 9:15we reject the null hypothesis, we can
  218. 9:17conclude that at least one population
  219. 9:19mean difference differs, but the overall
  220. 9:23anova doesn't tell us which group
  221. 9:26uh which groups are significantly
  222. 9:28different from one another.
  223. 9:31For that, we would need uh additional
  224. 9:33procedure, something called a post hoc
  225. 9:36test
  226. 9:37uh which some of you may encounter when
  227. 9:39working with a program called SPSS.
  228. 9:42And that program is part of of a class
  229. 9:45called psych social 271. I actually
  230. 9:48teach that class as well. I'm teaching
  231. 9:50it this semester too. It just started
  232. 9:52three weeks ago.
  233. 9:54But for now, we're just concentrating on
  234. 9:56that first question.
  235. 9:57Are all of these three populations,
  236. 10:01their population means, are they equal?
  237. 10:04We've got our research question.
  238. 10:06We've established our hypotheses.
  239. 10:09Now we need participants. So I developed
  240. 10:12a recruitment flyer. Let's take a look
  241. 10:14at it.
  242. 10:16We're conducting a hypothetical study at
  243. 10:19Southwestern College involving scholars
  244. 10:21from Psych Social 270 sections 501 and
  245. 10:25508, which you see right here.
  246. 10:28We want to recruit 15 parents.
  247. 10:31parents whose children decide when they
  248. 10:33go to bed,
  249. 10:35five parents who negotiate bedtime with
  250. 10:37their children, and five parents who use
  251. 10:39a set bedtime.
  252. 10:41We're not telling parents to change
  253. 10:43their bedtime strategies. We're simply
  254. 10:44recruiting parents
  255. 10:46who already use these approaches. And
  256. 10:49we're going to ask them to observe their
  257. 10:51child for one night
  258. 10:53and
  259. 10:54tell us how long it takes the child to
  260. 10:57fall asleep. The measurement is fairly
  261. 11:00straightforward.
  262. 11:01How many times, again, does it take the
  263. 11:03child to fall asleep after getting into
  264. 11:06bed?
  265. 11:08We can work out exactly how parents
  266. 11:09report that information in a detailed
  267. 11:13uh in a more detailed research study,
  268. 11:15but
  269. 11:16sort of imagine this. You put the child
  270. 11:18to bed, the parents put the child to
  271. 11:19bed, and then they set a timer
  272. 11:22every 5 minutes and they go into the
  273. 11:25bedroom and if the child is asleep in
  274. 11:27the first 5 minutes, they say 5 minutes.
  275. 11:30The child isn't asleep, they come back
  276. 11:32uh at 10 minutes if the child is asleep,
  277. 11:34then they say 10 minutes and on and on.
  278. 11:37For our purposes, we're going to assume
  279. 11:39that we have a consistent,
  280. 11:41reasonable, accurate way, just like I
  281. 11:43just described, to collect that data.
  282. 11:45So again, let's say we recruit our 15
  283. 11:48families and they return
  284. 11:51with their observations. This is exactly
  285. 11:54the way research is done. We would have
  286. 11:58a recruitment flyer, we would have some
  287. 12:01recruitment strategy, we would have an
  288. 12:03idea of how many participants or
  289. 12:07respondents we need
  290. 12:09and we would get their information and
  291. 12:12move forward.
  292. 12:14So we collected data from the five
  293. 12:19parents from each group and now we have
  294. 12:21data. Let's take a look at our first
  295. 12:24group.
  296. 12:25These are our parents who allow their
  297. 12:27children to decide when they're going to
  298. 12:30bed.
  299. 12:31Their children took 25 30 35 40 and 45
  300. 12:36minutes to fall asleep.
  301. 12:39Notice that every child
  302. 12:41or notice that not every child had the
  303. 12:43same result.
  304. 12:44So even though the parents used the same
  305. 12:46bedtime strategy, the children are
  306. 12:48different.
  307. 12:50That's actually what's important.
  308. 12:52Now let's take a look at our second
  309. 12:54group.
  310. 12:55These are parents who allow their
  311. 12:57children to negotiate bedtime.
  312. 13:00Their results are 20 25 30 35 and 40
  313. 13:05minutes. Again,
  314. 13:07there's variation.
  315. 13:09Some children fall asleep relatively
  316. 13:10quickly,
  317. 13:11others take a little bit longer.
  318. 13:15And finally our third group. These are
  319. 13:17parents who have a consistent bedtime.
  320. 13:20Their results are 10 minutes, 15
  321. 13:23minutes, 20, 25 and 30 minutes.
  322. 13:27So now we have three groups,
  323. 13:29five observations in each group and a
  324. 13:32total of 15 observations.
  325. 13:35So we have our data set
  326. 13:38and now we're ready to investigate our
  327. 13:40research question.
  328. 13:44Now before we begin our calculations, I
  329. 13:47want you to to think about the three
  330. 13:49groups
  331. 13:51and look at these three groups.
  332. 13:54We're going to calculate the mean for
  333. 13:55each one
  334. 13:57and by now you should be able to do that
  335. 13:59almost in your sleep, right?
  336. 14:02Let's go over to the map and do that.
  337. 14:10Group one
  338. 14:12was the group uh
  339. 14:15the child goes to sleep when they uh are
  340. 14:17ready.
  341. 14:19Child ready.
  342. 14:23We're going to call that N one.
  343. 14:25And they went to bed at
  344. 14:2825 30
  345. 14:3035 40 and 45 minutes.
  346. 14:35Group two
  347. 14:36was the child negotiates.
  348. 14:41We're going to call that N two.
  349. 14:44And they went to bed 20 25 30 35
  350. 14:50and 40 minutes.
  351. 14:52Group three
  352. 14:55child strict.
  353. 14:59It's N three. They went to bed at 10 15
  354. 15:0420 30
  355. 15:07uh 25 sorry.
  356. 15:08There we go, my first mistake.
  357. 15:10And 30. 10 15 20 25 and 30. They're all
  358. 15:15five apart.
  359. 15:16I did that for a reason so that you
  360. 15:18could see how ANOVA's work more easily
  361. 15:22without
  362. 15:23sort of worrying about the calculations.
  363. 15:25But in the real world
  364. 15:28uh the data wouldn't necessarily be this
  365. 15:31nice and clean.
  366. 15:33So we need a mean for each group.
  367. 15:37Mean group one, mean group two
  368. 15:40and mean of group three.
  369. 15:42Now
  370. 15:43we could calculate this by to adding 25
  371. 15:4730 35 40 and 45 and dividing it by five.
  372. 15:51But because of how uniform this data set
  373. 15:54is, it's going to be just the middle
  374. 15:56number and it'll be the middle number
  375. 15:58for all three sets.
  376. 16:01Right? You don't need me to calculate
  377. 16:03that, do you?
  378. 16:05You don't, do you?
  379. 16:06You trust me?
  380. 16:07Okay.
  381. 16:09So the mean for group one is 35.
  382. 16:12The mean for group two is 30.
  383. 16:14And the mean for group three is 20.
  384. 16:20Now look at those means.
  385. 16:2335 30 and 20.
  386. 16:26That reminds me of something.
  387. 16:29If you're a child
  388. 16:31in the 70s,
  389. 16:33maybe even the 80s,
  390. 16:37one of these things certainly looks
  391. 16:39different from the others.
  392. 16:42But which one?
  393. 16:44Remember that song
  394. 16:45from Sesame Street?
  395. 16:51>> One of these things is not like the
  396. 16:54other. One of these things just doesn't
  397. 16:57belong. Can you tell which thing is not
  398. 17:01like the other before I finish my song?
  399. 17:08Now look very carefully because one of
  400. 17:10these things just doesn't belong here.
  401. 17:13Is it the apple
  402. 17:15or the uh the ice cream cone or the
  403. 17:17mitten
  404. 17:18or the hamburger?
  405. 17:22Well, if you guessed this thing is not
  406. 17:25like the other, if you guessed this
  407. 17:27thing just doesn't belong, if you
  408. 17:30guessed this thing is not like the
  409. 17:34other, well then
  410. 17:38you're absolutely correct because all of
  411. 17:41these things, the apple,
  412. 17:44the ice cream cone, and the hamburger
  413. 17:46are things you can eat.
  414. 17:47But uh
  415. 17:49did you ever try eating a mitten?
  416. 17:54>> The child decides has a mean of 35
  417. 17:57minutes. The negotiated mean has
  418. 18:0030 minutes and the strict time has a set
  419. 18:03time of mean of 20.
  420. 18:06We can see that the sample means are
  421. 18:08different, but here's the problem. Just
  422. 18:10because our sample means are different
  423. 18:12doesn't necessarily mean that our
  424. 18:14population means are different.
  425. 18:17Remember, we're working with samples and
  426. 18:19samples naturally vary.
  427. 18:22So,
  428. 18:23how do we determine whether
  429. 18:25these differences are statistically
  430. 18:27significant?
  431. 18:29That's where the ANOVA comes in.
  432. 18:32Now, look at all 15 observations.
  433. 18:36I'd like you to look more carefully at
  434. 18:37what we've collected. I want you to
  435. 18:39notice that there are two types of
  436. 18:42variation.
  437. 18:43First, we have variation between the
  438. 18:47groups,
  439. 18:48between the groups.
  440. 18:52They're not all the same.
  441. 18:54But we also have variation within the
  442. 18:57groups.
  443. 18:59So, this is within,
  444. 19:02and this is between.
  445. 19:06Looking at the child decides group, even
  446. 19:08though those parents follow the same
  447. 19:11bedtime strategy,
  448. 19:13one child takes 25 minutes to fall
  449. 19:16asleep, while another takes 45 minutes.
  450. 19:19And that brings us to the central idea
  451. 19:21of ANOVA.
  452. 19:23ANOVA stands for analysis of variance.
  453. 19:27And we've been studying variability all
  454. 19:30semester.
  455. 19:32You've calculated standard deviations.
  456. 19:35You've used standard errors. You've
  457. 19:36worked with the variability of samples
  458. 19:40to help you calculate t statistics.
  459. 19:43Now, we're going to make variability the
  460. 19:47centerpiece of the analysis. We're going
  461. 19:50to compare two sources of variation,
  462. 19:53variation between the groups
  463. 19:56and variation within the groups.
  464. 20:01To help you think about that, I'd like
  465. 20:02you to think about
  466. 20:06an old-fashioned radio.
  467. 20:09Some of you may remember
  468. 20:11turning the dial, trying to find a
  469. 20:13station.
  470. 20:15What did you hear?
  471. 20:16Perhaps first.
  472. 20:25Boy,
  473. 20:27Maybe some music.
  474. 20:29That's a signal. And the question
  475. 20:31becomes, can we distinguish the signal
  476. 20:35from all that noise?
  477. 20:38Well, that's a useful way of thinking of
  478. 20:41or thinking about an ANOVA. The
  479. 20:43variation between the group represents
  480. 20:46our potential
  481. 20:48Sorry. The variation between the groups
  482. 20:50represents our potential signal. The
  483. 20:52variation within the groups represents
  484. 20:55our background noise.
  485. 20:57And if the groups are truly different,
  486. 21:00we'd expect the variation between we
  487. 21:03Well, if the groups are truly different,
  488. 21:05we expect the variation between their
  489. 21:07means to be relatively large compared to
  490. 21:10the variation we would ordinarily
  491. 21:12observe among individuals within those
  492. 21:15groups.
  493. 21:16An ANOVA gives us a way to compare those
  494. 21:21two sources of variation.
  495. 21:26Signal,
  496. 21:31between group variation, differences
  497. 21:34among groups, noise within group
  498. 21:37variation, differences among
  499. 21:40individuals.
  500. 21:42And this is important. We're not simply
  501. 21:45asking which raw sums of squares is
  502. 21:48larger.
  503. 21:50We're going to adjust each source of
  504. 21:51variation
  505. 21:53for its degrees of freedom.
  506. 21:55And that gives us something called a
  507. 21:57mean square.
  508. 21:59And you'll see exactly how that works.
  509. 22:01So up till now, we've used a Z
  510. 22:04table, Z chart. We've used a T chart for
  511. 22:08a T test. And now we're going to use an
  512. 22:11F chart.
  513. 22:12To do that, we're going to use something
  514. 22:14called an ANOVA
  515. 22:16table. We've used
  516. 22:19a sum of squares table, sum of squares
  517. 22:22chart. And we're going to do something
  518. 22:23very similar to that called the ANOVA
  519. 22:26table.
  520. 22:27Before we do that, however, let's
  521. 22:29organize what we have.
  522. 22:32We're going to put our
  523. 22:34uh sort of
  524. 22:35mise en place on the
  525. 22:38on the map.
  526. 22:39We need to know
  527. 22:41how
  528. 22:42much we have in terms of the data set.
  529. 22:44So we could write it one of two ways. We
  530. 22:46could say N1 equals five
  531. 22:50because it does.
  532. 22:52N2 also equals five and N3 equals five.
  533. 22:57Or we could say N1 equals N2 equals N3
  534. 23:01equals five.
  535. 23:03That is the
  536. 23:05more
  537. 23:07streamlined way to do it. Now if these
  538. 23:10uh N sizes were different, we would have
  539. 23:12to say them different. But since they're
  540. 23:14all five, we can say N1 equals N2 equals
  541. 23:17N3 equals five.
  542. 23:19That's lowercase N.
  543. 23:22Now we have 15 observations altogether
  544. 23:25and we use the capital N for the whole
  545. 23:29data set.
  546. 23:31N equals 15.
  547. 23:34And now we have three groups. We denote
  548. 23:37the groups with a new symbol called K.
  549. 23:42You've probably seen that in other math.
  550. 23:45We have three groups, one, two, three
  551. 23:47and so
  552. 23:48K equals three. That's it.
  553. 23:52Now
  554. 23:53we need to establish our degrees of
  555. 23:56freedom.
  556. 23:58And we do that by setting up the ANOVA
  557. 24:02table.
  558. 24:04The ANOVA table is a little bit like
  559. 24:06Sudoku.
  560. 24:08I think I've said that in other
  561. 24:11past lectures or briefings.
  562. 24:15It's like you have a little bit of
  563. 24:17information and use some of the
  564. 24:18information that you have to create
  565. 24:20other information.
  566. 24:22So I'm going to set up the ANOVA table
  567. 24:25and then we'll start doing the
  568. 24:27calculations.
  569. 24:28The calculations, I'm just going to say
  570. 24:30this.
  571. 24:33The calculations seem like they're
  572. 24:35pretty gnarly, but they're not. It's
  573. 24:37fairly simple, fairly straightforward.
  574. 24:41So,
  575. 24:42the ANOVA table consists of these
  576. 24:45elements, the source of the variation,
  577. 24:50the sum of squares of the variation, the
  578. 24:52degrees of freedom,
  579. 24:54the mean square, and the F statistic.
  580. 24:59All right. So, I'm going to put this off
  581. 25:01to the Oh, let me finish filling it out.
  582. 25:04We have here are the different sources.
  583. 25:05We have a source of between
  584. 25:09the groups. That's one source of
  585. 25:10variation.
  586. 25:11And we have another source within the
  587. 25:14groups.
  588. 25:15So, this is between,
  589. 25:17this is within.
  590. 25:18So, we also have total.
  591. 25:21And so, let's set this off to the side.
  592. 25:25And you know the second step is to
  593. 25:27figure out the critical value, right?
  594. 25:30For ANOVA, we figure out the critical
  595. 25:32value a little bit different,
  596. 25:36differently.
  597. 25:37We need the degrees of freedom between
  598. 25:40over the degrees of freedom within.
  599. 25:44All right. So,
  600. 25:46there are very simple formulas. You
  601. 25:49don't have to memorize them. You don't
  602. 25:51have to
  603. 25:52look for them. You just have to follow
  604. 25:55the formulas that are listed in the
  605. 25:57chapter.
  606. 25:58So, it's a very simple formula.
  607. 26:01For the degrees of freedom between, the
  608. 26:03formula is K - 1.
  609. 26:08And for the degrees of freedom within,
  610. 26:10it's N - K.
  611. 26:16All right. We just just discovered that
  612. 26:18K is 3.
  613. 26:20So, it's 3 - 1
  614. 26:23or 2.
  615. 26:25And we discovered that N was 15. So, N -
  616. 26:29K or 3
  617. 26:3115 - 3
  618. 26:34is 12.
  619. 26:35So, we're looking for 12 two over 12.
  620. 26:39And
  621. 26:40to the ANOVA table, the F
  622. 26:44to figure out what critical value that
  623. 26:46is.
  624. 26:48Okay, here is our F table.
  625. 26:51You'll see that we have the numerator
  626. 26:55and the denominator. So, the numerator
  627. 26:58is across the top.
  628. 27:00The denominator is down the side. So,
  629. 27:02we're looking for two
  630. 27:04across the top, right?
  631. 27:06And 12.
  632. 27:10So, we
  633. 27:13can only do an ANOVA
  634. 27:17by hand at the alpha level of 0.05.
  635. 27:22And we can only do one tail. We can only
  636. 27:23do one direction. So,
  637. 27:26that's why you don't see the alpha
  638. 27:29values. So, we're looking for a critical
  639. 27:31value of 3.88.
  640. 27:34Let's head back over to the map.
  641. 27:383.88.
  642. 27:41We don't have to Well, we could.
  643. 27:45Draw curves and one, two, three.
  644. 27:49That's much further in.
  645. 27:51Uh
  646. 27:54the curve moved off the
  647. 27:57the the
  648. 27:59paper here.
  649. 28:02And that's really just to see where the
  650. 28:04critical value is. So, if we get a
  651. 28:05number that is greater than 3.88, we're
  652. 28:08going to reject the null hypothesis.
  653. 28:11And if not, we're going to fail to
  654. 28:13reject the null hypothesis.
  655. 28:17So, we have to also now
  656. 28:20fill in the degrees of freedom between
  657. 28:22and within that we just figured out, two
  658. 28:24and 12.
  659. 28:26So, two is for
  660. 28:28between. And 12 is for within.
  661. 28:32And for total, which I forgot the out
  662. 28:34there, is 2 + 12 that equals 14 degrees
  663. 28:39of freedom.
  664. 28:41Now we need to figure out the sum of
  665. 28:42squares between, the sum of squares
  666. 28:44within, the sum of squares total,
  667. 28:48the mean square between, the mean square
  668. 28:51within,
  669. 28:52and then the F statistic that will tell
  670. 28:55us either to reject or fail to reject.
  671. 28:58So I'm going to put a number one here, a
  672. 29:00number two here, a number three here,
  673. 29:03four, five, and then six because
  674. 29:07we're going to fill those out, right?
  675. 29:10So let's first work on the sum of
  676. 29:12squares
  677. 29:14between.
  678. 29:19Sum of squares between has a formula
  679. 29:21that
  680. 29:22looks a little crazy, but it's not.
  681. 29:24It is the sum of
  682. 29:27NJ
  683. 29:30times MJ - MG squared.
  684. 29:36Now I know what you're thinking,
  685. 29:38where the hell did the J come from?
  686. 29:41Let me show you what that is.
  687. 29:43And what did the G come from? Let me
  688. 29:45show you what that is.
  689. 29:49Let's work on first
  690. 29:50MG, which stands for
  691. 29:53uh
  692. 29:55my brain just stopped. It stands for
  693. 29:58the mean grand, the grand mean. There we
  694. 30:01go.
  695. 30:02The G stands for grand and M stands for
  696. 30:04mean.
  697. 30:05So the grand mean.
  698. 30:07And all it's doing is taking these uh
  699. 30:11all of these
  700. 30:13in the data set and getting, adding them
  701. 30:15all together and dividing them by 15.
  702. 30:21I'm going to do it with the calculator
  703. 30:22very very quickly.
  704. 30:24I'm going to enter the data into the
  705. 30:28calculator's memory.
  706. 30:30Second, reset,
  707. 30:33guess,
  708. 30:36and then clear again.
  709. 30:38Second data.
  710. 30:40We want one variable
  711. 30:42and then data. So we 20 25 30 35 40 is
  712. 30:46the first.
  713. 30:4725
  714. 30:4930
  715. 30:5135
  716. 30:5240
  717. 30:5445
  718. 30:55You're seeing me go press two times
  719. 30:57because I'm moving beyond
  720. 31:00the calculator asking is there going to
  721. 31:02be
  722. 31:03more than 125. So since there's a
  723. 31:05frequency of one, I'm just hitting it
  724. 31:09to move beyond it.
  725. 31:10So I did the first group
  726. 31:12I have all the way up to five. So now
  727. 31:13I'm ready for the second group. 20
  728. 31:1825
  729. 31:1930
  730. 31:2135
  731. 31:2340 Ooh.
  732. 31:25And see I messed that out. I only need
  733. 31:27one of those.
  734. 31:30And 40.
  735. 31:31Let me go back and check my data.
  736. 31:34Press data. Go back in. 25 30 35 40 45.
  737. 31:39That's the first group.
  738. 31:4220 25
  739. 31:44Ah, I need one of them.
  740. 31:47Let me go back.
  741. 31:49That's what happened.
  742. 31:51So
  743. 31:52I'm going to stop stop and start over.
  744. 31:55Reset.
  745. 31:57I promised you you would see errors.
  746. 31:59Here you are.
  747. 32:01Second data.
  748. 32:03One variable. Let me slow down.
  749. 32:05Data.
  750. 32:0720 5
  751. 32:1230
  752. 32:1435
  753. 32:1740
  754. 32:1845
  755. 32:20Okay, now I'm ready for the second. 20
  756. 32:2311 5
  757. 32:2530
  758. 32:2735
  759. 32:2940
  760. 32:31Ready for the third.
  761. 32:3310
  762. 32:3515
  763. 32:3720
  764. 32:3925
  765. 32:41and 30.
  766. 32:44All right, check the data.
  767. 32:4725
  768. 32:4830
  769. 32:4935 40
  770. 32:5145. That's the first I checked to make
  771. 32:54sure there was a one frequency in
  772. 32:55between.
  773. 32:5720
  774. 32:5825
  775. 33:0030
  776. 33:0135
  777. 33:0340 right?
  778. 33:0510
  779. 33:0715 20
  780. 33:0925 30
  781. 33:13There we go. It was 15.
  782. 33:15All right, so now I hit stat variable.
  783. 33:19It tells me that the n size is 15 which
  784. 33:22confirms.
  785. 33:23And I move over to find out the x bar
  786. 33:25which is the mean.
  787. 33:27So the grand mean is
  788. 33:3128.
  789. 33:3433.
  790. 33:36Let's stop with the second decimal as
  791. 33:39we've done so far.
  792. 33:42So that's the grand mean.
  793. 33:46So
  794. 33:48n
  795. 33:49j means do group one. So
  796. 33:54group one n and the group one mean
  797. 33:57and then the grand mean.
  798. 34:00Group two n
  799. 34:02mean
  800. 34:04for group two and then the grand mean.
  801. 34:07The n for group three
  802. 34:09the m for group three and the grand
  803. 34:12mean. So here's what it actually looks
  804. 34:15like. This j just means stay in
  805. 34:20every group. So it's the sum of
  806. 34:23five which is the first n, right? N one
  807. 34:27is five.
  808. 34:28Mean the first mean
  809. 34:31is 35.
  810. 34:3335
  811. 34:34minus the grand mean
  812. 34:3628
  813. 34:3833. When we subtract that, we're going
  814. 34:41to square it.
  815. 34:44That's
  816. 34:45group one.
  817. 34:46Now we're going to do group two.
  818. 34:48So, the n is again for group two is also
  819. 34:51five.
  820. 34:52But the mean for group two is 30.
  821. 34:5630
  822. 34:57The grand mean is still 28 33 squared.
  823. 35:01Then we're going to do it for group
  824. 35:02three. The n is still five.
  825. 35:06But the mean for group three is 20.
  826. 35:1020 - 28 33 squared.
  827. 35:15Now, all that's happening is we're
  828. 35:17staying n1 m1 n2 m2 n3 m3.
  829. 35:25That's all that's happening.
  830. 35:26We're getting the sum of all that. So
  831. 35:28we're going to subtract this 35 subtract
  832. 35:3128 33 from 35 whenever we get from for
  833. 35:35that result
  834. 35:37for for that difference, we're going to
  835. 35:38square it and then we're going to
  836. 35:39multiply it by five.
  837. 35:41Do that same thing again. Subtract 28 33
  838. 35:43from 30. Whatever that difference is,
  839. 35:46square it, then multiply that by five.
  840. 35:48Do the same thing.
  841. 35:50Subtract 28 33 from 20, which is going
  842. 35:52to be a negative number.
  843. 35:54Then square it, which is going to get
  844. 35:55rid of the negative number and then
  845. 35:57multiply it by five.
  846. 35:59So I could do that in the calculator
  847. 36:02very, very quickly by entering in into
  848. 36:05the data. Let me show you that. Let's
  849. 36:07clear the data again. Second reset.
  850. 36:11Yes.
  851. 36:13Clear.
  852. 36:14We're going to enter three calculations
  853. 36:16and the calculator is going to resolve
  854. 36:19this for us.
  855. 36:22But let's do it by ourselves so we can
  856. 36:23see.
  857. 36:2535 -
  858. 36:2728
  859. 36:30.33
  860. 36:32is 6.67
  861. 36:37squared
  862. 36:41times five
  863. 36:45is two two, two.
  864. 36:49Oh, it's here.
  865. 36:51Six.
  866. 36:54Let me go back.
  867. 37:0035 minus 28
  868. 37:0433
  869. 37:066.67
  870. 37:086.67
  871. 37:10We want to square that
  872. 37:12and we want to multiply it by five.
  873. 37:15Right?
  874. 37:16Square it
  875. 37:18and then multiply it by five
  876. 37:21equals two,
  877. 37:23two, two,
  878. 37:25four,
  879. 37:26four.
  880. 37:28Right? Now watch when I enter it into
  881. 37:30the calculator just like that, I could
  882. 37:32enter five
  883. 37:34parentheses
  884. 37:3735 minus 28.33
  885. 37:40square.
  886. 37:42I just entered that whole calculation
  887. 37:47and I should get 222
  888. 37:49.44.
  889. 37:51I did.
  890. 37:52And now since I want to add all of this
  891. 37:54up, I'm going to add each one of these
  892. 37:57into the calculator just like I just did
  893. 38:00for the
  894. 38:03data values
  895. 38:04and have the calculator give us the
  896. 38:06whole total.
  897. 38:08Again, make sure that the
  898. 38:11memory is cleared.
  899. 38:14Second data Well, one variable data.
  900. 38:18So this is going to be X1, this is going
  901. 38:21to be X2, this is going to be X3. So all
  902. 38:24I do now is
  903. 38:28five parentheses 35 minus 28 .33
  904. 38:33squared.
  905. 38:35Move down. I only want one of those.
  906. 38:38Now do the same thing for X2. Five
  907. 38:40parentheses 30
  908. 38:42minus 28 33 squared.
  909. 38:45One those.
  910. 38:48Five.
  911. 38:51Parentheses 20 - 28 33 squared.
  912. 38:58Now, if I go back
  913. 39:00see what it has for X 1.
  914. 39:05This is what the answer is for X 2.
  915. 39:08This is the answer for X 3.
  916. 39:10If I press stat variable, I can get the
  917. 39:12sum of that. We can see that the N is
  918. 39:15three cuz there are the three. We don't
  919. 39:17need the mean. We actually need to keep
  920. 39:20going
  921. 39:21to get the sum.
  922. 39:23That is the sum of X.
  923. 39:25So the sum of squares between is 583
  924. 39:3233.
  925. 39:34So if we go back
  926. 39:36and enter that as number one, 583
  927. 39:4133.
  928. 39:43So we have our sum of squares
  929. 39:45between.
  930. 39:47Now the formula for sum of squares
  931. 39:50within
  932. 39:52is
  933. 39:54just as simple. It's just there's much
  934. 39:56more of it.
  935. 39:58The formula is
  936. 40:00the sum of X IJ
  937. 40:03- MJ squared.
  938. 40:07So essentially what this means is every
  939. 40:09X within its set
  940. 40:12- the mean of that set squared.
  941. 40:18So
  942. 40:21if you look at it, it's tedious, but
  943. 40:24it's super easy.
  944. 40:26It looks like this.
  945. 40:28Group one.
  946. 40:32X I, this is X 1, X 2, X 3, X 4, X 5
  947. 40:37within group one. This is X 1, X 2, X 3,
  948. 40:40X 4, X 5 within group two.
  949. 40:431 2 3 4 5 within group three. And these
  950. 40:46are the means for each of those groups.
  951. 40:49So it it goes like this.
  952. 40:5125 which is X 1 within group 1 minus the
  953. 40:56group the mean for group 1 which is 35
  954. 41:00squared plus
  955. 41:02X 2 which is 30 within group 1 30 minus
  956. 41:0535
  957. 41:07squared plus
  958. 41:0935 which is X 3 minus 35
  959. 41:13squared plus
  960. 41:1540 minus 35
  961. 41:17squared plus
  962. 41:1945 minus 35
  963. 41:22squared plus
  964. 41:24Now you can see I've just done 25 minus
  965. 41:2635 30 minus
  966. 41:2925 minus 35 plus squared plus 30 minus
  967. 41:3235
  968. 41:34squared plus 35 minus 35 we're just
  969. 41:36doing that again and again and again.
  970. 41:40So for group 2
  971. 41:42you can see that it starts with 20 so 20
  972. 41:46minus 30 squared plus 25 minus 30
  973. 41:49squared and we would just keep going
  974. 41:51like that.
  975. 41:53So 20
  976. 41:55minus 30
  977. 41:57squared plus
  978. 41:5925 minus 30
  979. 42:02squared plus
  980. 42:0530 minus 30
  981. 42:07squared plus
  982. 42:0935 minus 30
  983. 42:11squared plus
  984. 42:1240
  985. 42:13minus 30
  986. 42:15squared
  987. 42:16plus
  988. 42:18and in 3
  989. 42:21that would be
  990. 42:2310 minus 20 squared plus
  991. 42:2810 minus 20 squared plus
  992. 42:3215 minus 20
  993. 42:34squared plus
  994. 42:3620 minus 20
  995. 42:38squared plus
  996. 42:3925 minus 20
  997. 42:42squared plus
  998. 42:4330 minus 20
  999. 42:45squared.
  1000. 42:48Now
  1001. 42:49even though that looks gnarly it is
  1002. 42:51super simple. Because
  1003. 42:5425 minus 35 is 10.
  1004. 42:5810 squared is 100.
  1005. 43:0230 minus 35 is 5.
  1006. 43:065 squared is 25.
  1007. 43:0935 minus 35 is 0. 0 squared is 0.
  1008. 43:1440 minus 35 is
  1009. 43:17uh
  1010. 43:185.
  1011. 43:225 squared
  1012. 43:2325.
  1013. 43:2545 minus
  1014. 43:2635 is 10.
  1015. 43:2810 squared is 100. Look, 100, 200, 225,
  1016. 43:34250.
  1017. 43:35So this first line is 250.
  1018. 43:39Super easy, right? Look at this.
  1019. 43:4110 minus 20 minus 30
  1020. 43:44-10. Actually, this should have been
  1021. 43:46negative, but it doesn't really matter.
  1022. 43:4825 minus 35 is -10, but -10 squared is
  1023. 43:52still 100.
  1024. 43:5420 minus 30 is -10.
  1025. 43:58-10 squared is 100. So it's really the
  1026. 44:00same pattern. 25 minus 30
  1027. 44:04is -5.
  1028. 44:065 -5 squared is 25. So I gave you a
  1029. 44:09nice, neat
  1030. 44:11pattern which you can easily see.
  1031. 44:19Only because this data set fell the way
  1032. 44:22that it fell, or I designed it this way
  1033. 44:24so that you could see the calculation is
  1034. 44:27very easy.
  1035. 44:29Um it wouldn't be as straightforward
  1036. 44:31with different values, but it's still
  1037. 44:34the same process. You take x minus the
  1038. 44:38mean of that uh that group and then
  1039. 44:40square it. So 250 + 250 + 250 3 250s is
  1040. 44:477
  1041. 44:4850. So the sum of squares
  1042. 44:51within
  1043. 44:53is 750.
  1044. 44:55Go back to our ANOVA.
  1045. 44:58750.
  1046. 45:00So now the total,
  1047. 45:02sum of squares total is sum of squares
  1048. 45:04between plus sum of squares within.
  1049. 45:07That's the total.
  1050. 45:10583.33
  1051. 45:13+ 750
  1052. 45:171,333.33.
  1053. 45:25See?
  1054. 45:26Not that hard.
  1055. 45:28Now
  1056. 45:29we need the mean square uh between and
  1057. 45:32the mean square
  1058. 45:33uh
  1059. 45:34within.
  1060. 45:36So
  1061. 45:40to get the mean square between, it's the
  1062. 45:43sum of square between divided by the
  1063. 45:46degrees of freedom between. So you just
  1064. 45:48divide these.
  1065. 45:51583.33
  1066. 45:53divided by 2
  1067. 45:55equals
  1068. 45:57291.66
  1069. 46:005 so 67 291.67.
  1070. 46:05We do the same thing for the mean square
  1071. 46:07within. It is the sum of square within
  1072. 46:11divided by degrees of freedom within or
  1073. 46:14750 divided by 12
  1074. 46:1962
  1075. 46:21.5.
  1076. 46:24And now we need the F statistic. We just
  1077. 46:27divide the mean square between from the
  1078. 46:31mean square within or 291.67
  1079. 46:35divided by 62.5.
  1080. 46:37And if this number is greater
  1081. 46:40than uh our F critical of 3.88 we're
  1082. 46:44going to reject the null hypothesis.
  1083. 46:49291.67
  1084. 46:51divided by 62.5
  1085. 46:544.666
  1086. 46:56or 4.67.
  1087. 46:59Look at that.
  1088. 47:004.67 is definitely in the rejection zone
  1089. 47:03because it's greater than 3.88.
  1090. 47:07So we reject the null hypothesis.
  1091. 47:10At least one parent's group strategy is
  1092. 47:15different.
  1093. 47:16Creates a different uh sleep time for
  1094. 47:18children.
  1095. 47:20We don't know which one.
  1096. 47:22At least one group is different, but we
  1097. 47:23can't tell which one.
  1098. 47:26And just like we had uh a little bit of
  1099. 47:29a different process for ANOVA for
  1100. 47:32calculating the test statistic, we have
  1101. 47:34a different strategy for calculating the
  1102. 47:36effect size.
  1103. 47:38It's called eta
  1104. 47:40squared.
  1105. 47:43The eta squared's formula is very
  1106. 47:46simple. It's the sum of squares between
  1107. 47:49divided by the sum of squares total.
  1108. 47:52We know what those values are.
  1109. 47:55The sum of squares between is 583.33.
  1110. 47:59The sum of squares total is 133
  1111. 48:011,333.33.
  1112. 48:06So 583
  1113. 48:09.33
  1114. 48:11divided by 1,333
  1115. 48:14.33
  1116. 48:22583.33
  1117. 48:24divided by 1,333
  1118. 48:26.33
  1119. 48:30We get
  1120. 48:31.437
  1121. 48:34so 0.4
  1122. 48:374
  1123. 48:38which means
  1124. 48:3944%
  1125. 48:41of the variation within the data set
  1126. 48:44is being determined by
  1127. 48:49which group you're in.
  1128. 48:51And the ANOVA
  1129. 48:55or eta squared just like Cohen's d, we
  1130. 48:58use 0.2,
  1131. 49:010.5,
  1132. 49:020.8 for small, moderate, and large. We
  1133. 49:06use a slightly different scale for
  1134. 49:11at a square.
  1135. 49:13Just want to check that before I tell
  1136. 49:15you.
  1137. 49:19Uh my brain remembers that it's 0.01,
  1138. 49:230.09,
  1139. 49:25point 25.
  1140. 49:28Let's go check though.
  1141. 49:31It's a lot of stuff in my brain.
  1142. 49:55I need to add a squared.
  1143. 50:02I'm still in chapter 10.
  1144. 50:06Got to let that go.
  1145. 50:08Let's go to chapter 11
  1146. 50:11for anovas.
  1147. 50:13There we are.
  1148. 50:20While we're here, let me just stop and
  1149. 50:22show you again the sum of squares
  1150. 50:24between formula
  1151. 50:28and the sum of squares within formula.
  1152. 50:33Sum of squares total. This is really the
  1153. 50:36same thing. You don't have to compute it
  1154. 50:39this way. You can just add sum of
  1155. 50:40squares between the sum of squares
  1156. 50:42uh within, but here's the formula for it
  1157. 50:45as well. This is a more simple formula.
  1158. 50:48You could perform the calculation, but
  1159. 50:50since you already have the sum of
  1160. 50:51squares between and the sum of squares
  1161. 50:53within, just add them together.
  1162. 50:55Here is what you just saw me work out in
  1163. 50:58the anova table.
  1164. 51:00Sum of squares between, sum of squares
  1165. 51:02within, sum of squares total.
  1166. 51:04The degrees of freedom for between was k
  1167. 51:06- 1.
  1168. 51:08Within was n - k or 2 over 12 and this
  1169. 51:12is just these two added up together. So
  1170. 51:142 + 13 is 14.
  1171. 51:20And uh
  1172. 51:22we went to the F table to get 2 over 12
  1173. 51:26for the critical value which was 3.88.
  1174. 51:30Here we see that the mean square is just
  1175. 51:32sum of squares between divided by
  1176. 51:34degrees of freedom between.
  1177. 51:36Right? So that's how we got that so far.
  1178. 51:40I was trying to find
  1179. 51:42eta squared.
  1180. 51:49There we are.
  1181. 51:52I was right.
  1182. 51:54.01 is small.
  1183. 51:57.09 is medium and .25 is large. We got
  1184. 52:02.44 which is large. But it's also
  1185. 52:05telling us how much is being driven by
  1186. 52:10how much variation is being driven by
  1187. 52:12the
  1188. 52:13belonging to a particular group. And
  1189. 52:15having .44 means that 44%
  1190. 52:20of the variation in the sample is being
  1191. 52:23driven by whether you are in group one,
  1192. 52:27group two, or group three, which is a
  1193. 52:28large effect.
  1194. 52:31So all we have to do now is
  1195. 52:33write out the decision, right?
  1196. 52:35Let's head back over to the map.
  1197. 52:39Oh, one more thing. I actually want to
  1198. 52:40calculate the standard deviation for
  1199. 52:44each one. But I want to show you
  1200. 52:45something that I think may clear up
  1201. 52:50standard deviation.
  1202. 52:52You notice that this data set is pretty
  1203. 52:55uniform, meaning it varies by five.
  1204. 53:00And they vary this way by five. So they
  1205. 53:04vary by five this way within.
  1206. 53:07But they vary by uh there's a
  1207. 53:09difference. This was varying by five,
  1208. 53:11but this one's varying by ten. So, you
  1209. 53:13can perhaps guess that this group is
  1210. 53:17different than the others, but we can't
  1211. 53:19know that without a post hoc test.
  1212. 53:22We need the standard deviation for each
  1213. 53:24group. And I think you're going to see
  1214. 53:26something interesting because this is a
  1215. 53:28unified or uniform data set about the
  1216. 53:31standard deviation.
  1217. 53:33We'll use the calculator again to uh
  1218. 53:37calculate the standard deviation of
  1219. 53:39data set one or N one. Let's clear
  1220. 53:43the data.
  1221. 53:44Second and reset.
  1222. 53:46Yes.
  1223. 53:47Clear.
  1224. 53:48Second and data.
  1225. 53:50One
  1226. 53:52and one variable and data. So, it's
  1227. 53:54ready for X one. Let's do
  1228. 53:58uh group one. 25 30 35 40 45.
  1229. 54:0225
  1230. 54:0430
  1231. 54:0635
  1232. 54:0840
  1233. 54:1045 just so that you can see.
  1234. 54:12Stat variable will give us the data.
  1235. 54:15So, the N size is five. We know that.
  1236. 54:19The mean or X bar is 35.
  1237. 54:23We know that.
  1238. 54:25The standard deviation is 7.905
  1239. 54:28or 7.91.
  1240. 54:357.91.
  1241. 54:38And would you guess that that would also
  1242. 54:41be the standard deviation for group two?
  1243. 54:45Let's see.
  1244. 54:47Let's clear the data.
  1245. 54:57Let's do 20 25 30 35 40.
  1246. 55:0020
  1247. 55:0225
  1248. 55:0430
  1249. 55:0545
  1250. 55:0740
  1251. 55:10N is five.
  1252. 55:12The mean is thirty.
  1253. 55:15Look at the standard deviation.
  1254. 55:177.91
  1255. 55:20Now, why is that?
  1256. 55:23Because it doesn't matter
  1257. 55:27that the means are different because
  1258. 55:30once we take the mean out,
  1259. 55:33they're all varying by five.
  1260. 55:36That doesn't happen in real life and
  1261. 55:39real data, but it helps you see that
  1262. 55:42what we're talking about when we're
  1263. 55:43talking about the standard deviation
  1264. 55:45because that came up a lot
  1265. 55:47in the radio, the call-in radio show,
  1266. 55:50and it comes up
  1267. 55:52I as I read through your comments in
  1268. 55:54your group decision, but your group
  1269. 55:56discussion,
  1270. 55:57we can see that because there is uniform
  1271. 56:01variation, the standard deviation for
  1272. 56:04each of these groups, even though the
  1273. 56:05means are different, are all going to be
  1274. 56:077.91.
  1275. 56:12We need that when we're reporting the
  1276. 56:14decision.
  1277. 56:16So,
  1278. 56:18four.
  1279. 56:19Based on
  1280. 56:22the collected data
  1281. 56:28from
  1282. 56:30parents,
  1283. 56:32we want to tell
  1284. 56:33who's reading, anyone who's reading
  1285. 56:34this, what the N size was. Capital N was
  1286. 56:3815. That tells
  1287. 56:40the reader that our entire data set was
  1288. 56:4215.
  1289. 56:45Parents using
  1290. 56:49uh
  1291. 56:54child ready
  1292. 56:57for bed,
  1293. 57:01that mean was
  1294. 57:0435.
  1295. 57:06The standard deviation Oh, here.
  1296. 57:10N one is 5. We need to know that.
  1297. 57:14M1
  1298. 57:15is 35
  1299. 57:18and standard deviation 1 is 7.91.
  1300. 57:23That's the first one. Ciao. Ready for
  1301. 57:25bed? Then child negotiates.
  1302. 57:33N2 is 5.
  1303. 57:36M2 is
  1304. 57:3930
  1305. 57:41and standard deviation 2 was
  1306. 57:44you guessed it 7.91.
  1307. 57:46And
  1308. 57:49strict bedtime.
  1309. 57:55N3 is 5. M3 was 20
  1310. 58:00and SD 3 was
  1311. 58:037.91.
  1312. 58:05There is
  1313. 58:08sufficient
  1314. 58:11evidence
  1315. 58:14to reject
  1316. 58:16the null
  1317. 58:18hypothesis.
  1318. 58:23And ANOVA
  1319. 58:25revealed
  1320. 58:28that
  1321. 58:29effect
  1322. 58:32was
  1323. 58:34large.
  1324. 58:35And then report the F statistic. F
  1325. 58:392
  1326. 58:40and
  1327. 58:4212.
  1328. 58:43Those are our degrees of freedom, 2 and
  1329. 58:4512
  1330. 58:48equals
  1331. 58:494.67.
  1332. 58:51That was our F obtained. And because we
  1333. 58:54rejected the null hypothesis, the
  1334. 58:56probability is less than 0.05 because we
  1335. 58:59are using an alpha of 0.05, which is the
  1336. 59:02only kind of alpha for an ANOVA that we
  1337. 59:04can do by hand.
  1338. 59:07And the eta squared is 0.44.
  1339. 59:11This
  1340. 59:15that
  1341. 59:16approximately
  1342. 59:2144%
  1343. 59:23of the variation
  1344. 59:28is
  1345. 59:29um
  1346. 59:31driven
  1347. 59:33by
  1348. 59:35the
  1349. 59:36group
  1350. 59:39parent style.
  1351. 59:43Meaning either
  1352. 59:45child ready, child negotiation, or child
  1353. 59:48strict bedtime.
  1354. 59:51Okay.
  1355. 59:53Take a breath.
  1356. 59:55I can't believe I did all that. I made
  1357. 59:57some mistakes. I did that all in one
  1358. 59:59take. I'm not going to
  1359. 1:00:00edit anything out.
  1360. 1:00:03Let's just take a quick review of what
  1361. 1:00:04we've done. We started out with our
  1362. 1:00:07question.
  1363. 1:00:09Does the bedtime strategy parents use
  1364. 1:00:11relate to how long it takes their
  1365. 1:00:12children to go to bed? That's the
  1366. 1:00:14question.
  1367. 1:00:16We started out with a question
  1368. 1:00:17and we then started out with our
  1369. 1:00:20hypotheses if there is no difference in
  1370. 1:00:23children's sleep time based on parent
  1371. 1:00:25strategy because we realized that we
  1372. 1:00:27were going to examine three different
  1373. 1:00:30parental strategies.
  1374. 1:00:31Parent allows the child to go to bed
  1375. 1:00:33when they want to
  1376. 1:00:35or the child negotiates or the child
  1377. 1:00:38goes to bed at a strict bedtime.
  1378. 1:00:42So in the real world, we would go out
  1379. 1:00:44and recruit
  1380. 1:00:46data. We would recruit participants. We
  1381. 1:00:48would collect data from people who have
  1382. 1:00:51the information because we have the
  1383. 1:00:52question.
  1384. 1:00:54You saw the recruitment flyer. We were
  1385. 1:00:56looking for five in each group. We
  1386. 1:00:58weren't asking parents to change their
  1387. 1:01:00strategy. We're just telling asking them
  1388. 1:01:02to agree if they use one of those three
  1389. 1:01:06strategies.
  1390. 1:01:07And we got
  1391. 1:01:09five parents in each strategy.
  1392. 1:01:12And
  1393. 1:01:14we continue with our well, our null
  1394. 1:01:16hypothesis again is that there's no
  1395. 1:01:18difference in children's sleep time
  1396. 1:01:19based on parent strategy, mu 1 equals mu
  1397. 1:01:222 equals mu 3 which is there is no
  1398. 1:01:24difference in the population.
  1399. 1:01:27Our alternative hypothesis is at least
  1400. 1:01:29one parent's strategy is different,
  1401. 1:01:31which is all we can do. We don't even
  1402. 1:01:33have a mathematical way to express that.
  1403. 1:01:37We got our data from each of the groups,
  1404. 1:01:4125 30 35 40 45 and that follows through
  1405. 1:01:45for child ready child negotiate no,
  1406. 1:01:48child negotiate
  1407. 1:01:49negotiated strategy or negotiated
  1408. 1:01:52bedtime and child strict bedtime.
  1409. 1:01:55We used that to create the mean for each
  1410. 1:01:59group, 35 30 and 20 which we could see
  1411. 1:02:02easily. We could have added those up,
  1412. 1:02:04divided them by five, but we would have
  1413. 1:02:05gotten the same thing.
  1414. 1:02:08We acknowledge
  1415. 1:02:10our data by putting the
  1416. 1:02:13all the stuff that we need in these
  1417. 1:02:15on the map. N 1 equals N 2 equals N 3
  1418. 1:02:18which happens to be the way it is for
  1419. 1:02:20this data set, but they don't all all
  1420. 1:02:23have to be the same data just like an
  1421. 1:02:26independent sample t test.
  1422. 1:02:28So we say N 1 equals N 2 equals N 3 and
  1423. 1:02:31they all equal five.
  1424. 1:02:33Capital N is the whole data set of 15
  1425. 1:02:38and K stands for how many groups we
  1426. 1:02:40have.
  1427. 1:02:42We used
  1428. 1:02:44the all of the data in the 15 the 15
  1429. 1:02:49data values in the data set to create
  1430. 1:02:51the grand mean of 28.33.
  1431. 1:02:56We also went back and figured out the
  1432. 1:02:58standard deviation and because they all
  1433. 1:03:01vary by five, we got the that
  1434. 1:03:04they vary around the mean by 7.91
  1435. 1:03:09minutes.
  1436. 1:03:12Then we got introduced to the ANOVA
  1437. 1:03:14table which is like the sum of squares
  1438. 1:03:16table. We're going to use a table like
  1439. 1:03:17that again in
  1440. 1:03:19uh chapter 12 for correlations
  1441. 1:03:22next week and chapter 13 for linear
  1442. 1:03:25squares
  1443. 1:03:27or linear regression, sorry.
  1444. 1:03:30So we need force sum of squares, degrees
  1445. 1:03:32of freedom, mean square, and the F
  1446. 1:03:35statistic.
  1447. 1:03:36Between variation, between group
  1448. 1:03:38variation, within group variation, and
  1449. 1:03:40total is the source.
  1450. 1:03:43We found out what our degrees of freedom
  1451. 1:03:45were by using the critical value
  1452. 1:03:48formula, degrees of freedom between over
  1453. 1:03:50degrees of freedom within. That formula
  1454. 1:03:52is K - 1 over N - K.
  1455. 1:03:56K is three, three groups, 3 - 1 is two.
  1456. 1:04:00N - K, there are 15 in the data set,
  1457. 1:04:02there are three group, 15 - 3 is 12. We
  1458. 1:04:07went to the F
  1459. 1:04:09table to find 2 over 12 and we got 3.88
  1460. 1:04:12as our critical value. We drew out the
  1461. 1:04:14curve, but you don't really need to draw
  1462. 1:04:16it out.
  1463. 1:04:19And we placed that in our ANOVA table
  1464. 1:04:22two
  1465. 1:04:23for between group uh between degrees of
  1466. 1:04:26degrees of freedom between and for 12
  1467. 1:04:28for degrees of freedom within, and 2 +
  1468. 1:04:3112 is 14.
  1469. 1:04:33We then had to figure out the sum of
  1470. 1:04:35squares between, the sum of squares
  1471. 1:04:37within, and then we added that to find
  1472. 1:04:39the sum of squares total.
  1473. 1:04:42How we figured out the sum of squares
  1474. 1:04:43between, it's the sum of NJ times MJ -
  1475. 1:04:48grand mean squared.
  1476. 1:04:51So we just plugged in
  1477. 1:04:52five, five, five because those are uh
  1478. 1:04:55this is N1, this is N2, this is N3. They
  1479. 1:04:58happen to all be the same number, but
  1480. 1:05:00they could be different numbers.
  1481. 1:05:03So uh N1 could have five, N2 could have
  1482. 1:05:0712, and N3 could have 18. So this would
  1483. 1:05:10be 5, 12, and 18 instead of 5, 5, and 5.
  1484. 1:05:14Then we put in the mean for each group
  1485. 1:05:18and we subtracted the grand mean and
  1486. 1:05:20squared it.
  1487. 1:05:22I showed you how we just simply
  1488. 1:05:24subtracted the grand mean from the group
  1489. 1:05:27mean, squared it, and then multiplied it
  1490. 1:05:30by n, which happened to be five.
  1491. 1:05:32When we added that all up, the sum of
  1492. 1:05:34squares between was
  1493. 1:05:3658.
  1494. 1:05:37583.33.
  1495. 1:05:39We plugged it in there.
  1496. 1:05:41And then we figured out the sum of
  1497. 1:05:43squares within.
  1498. 1:05:45That formula is the sum of X IJ - MJ,
  1499. 1:05:50which is really just every X - the
  1500. 1:05:53individual mean for that group squared.
  1501. 1:05:57When we take this, you got to see that
  1502. 1:05:59this is a pretty simple formula. It's
  1503. 1:06:01just tedious.
  1504. 1:06:0325 - 35 is -10. -10 squared is 100.
  1505. 1:06:0930 - 35 is -5 squared. -5 squared is 25.
  1506. 1:06:1635 - 35 is 0. 0 squared is 0. 40 - 35
  1507. 1:06:235. 5 squared 25.
  1508. 1:06:2545 - 35 10. 10 squared is 100. You saw
  1509. 1:06:29that pattern. So it was just 100
  1510. 1:06:32100
  1511. 1:06:33100 25 25 or 100 or 220 250 for each
  1512. 1:06:38line. When we add them all up, the sum
  1513. 1:06:40of squares within was 750.
  1514. 1:06:44We put that in our sum of squares
  1515. 1:06:46within. We added 583.33
  1516. 1:06:51to 750 and we got 1,333.33
  1517. 1:06:54as the sum of squares total.
  1518. 1:06:58We already put the degrees of freedom
  1519. 1:06:59between and within.
  1520. 1:07:01And we used them to figure out the mean
  1521. 1:07:03square between and within. So mean
  1522. 1:07:06square between is sum of squares between
  1523. 1:07:09divided by degrees of freedom between or
  1524. 1:07:11583.33
  1525. 1:07:13divided by 2, which is 291.67.
  1526. 1:07:17The mean square within is sum of squares
  1527. 1:07:20within divided by degrees of freedom
  1528. 1:07:22within or 750 divided by 12 which is
  1529. 1:07:2562.5.
  1530. 1:07:27F statistic is mean square between
  1531. 1:07:30divided by mean square within which is
  1532. 1:07:324.67.
  1533. 1:07:34That is beyond our F critical. We reject
  1534. 1:07:39the null hypothesis. They are not the
  1535. 1:07:41same. At least one parent's strategy is
  1536. 1:07:44different, but we can't tell which one
  1537. 1:07:46it is without a post hoc test.
  1538. 1:07:49So then we figure out the effect size
  1539. 1:07:52using eta squared. This is eta squared.
  1540. 1:07:57This is the eta um character in the
  1541. 1:07:59Greek alphabet. It looks like a kind of
  1542. 1:08:01a cursive N with a little flip up.
  1543. 1:08:04Eta squared. That formula is sum of
  1544. 1:08:06squares between divided by sum of
  1545. 1:08:08squares total
  1546. 1:08:10or
  1547. 1:08:11583.33
  1548. 1:08:12divided by 1,333.33
  1549. 1:08:16which is what we did here. We got 0.44
  1550. 1:08:19which means 44% of the variation that
  1551. 1:08:22exist in the data set is being driven by
  1552. 1:08:25whether you belong in one of these
  1553. 1:08:27groups
  1554. 1:08:29which is a strong
  1555. 1:08:32or large effect.
  1556. 1:08:340.01
  1557. 1:08:350.09 and 0.25 is small, moderate, and
  1558. 1:08:40large.
  1559. 1:08:41And then finally we write out the
  1560. 1:08:45decision. Based on the collected data
  1561. 1:08:47from parents N equals 15 using child
  1562. 1:08:50ready for bed
  1563. 1:08:52N 1 is 5 M 1 is 35
  1564. 1:08:56standard standard deviation 1 is 7.91.
  1565. 1:08:59You know that's going to be 7.91 for
  1566. 1:09:00every group.
  1567. 1:09:02Child negotiates N 2 equals 5 M 2 equals
  1568. 1:09:0530. So they're different, right?
  1569. 1:09:07Standard deviation 2 is 7.91 and strict
  1570. 1:09:10bedtime N 3 equals 5 M 3 equals 20 set
  1571. 1:09:14standard deviation 3 is 7.91.
  1572. 1:09:17There is sufficient evidence to reject
  1573. 1:09:19the null hypothesis.
  1574. 1:09:21A null an ANOVA sorry and revealed that
  1575. 1:09:24the effect was large.
  1576. 1:09:26Report the F statistic F 2 comma 12
  1577. 1:09:30which are are are
  1578. 1:09:32degrees of freedom.
  1579. 1:09:34And because we rejected the null
  1580. 1:09:35hypothesis, the probability is less than
  1581. 1:09:380.05. If we fail to reject the null
  1582. 1:09:40hypothesis it it
  1583. 1:09:42fail to reject the null hypothesis it
  1584. 1:09:44would be probability is greater than
  1585. 1:09:460.05.
  1586. 1:09:47And the eta square is 0.44 0.44. This
  1587. 1:09:51means that approximately 44% of the
  1588. 1:09:53variation is driven by the group parent
  1589. 1:09:56style.
  1590. 1:09:57All right.
  1591. 1:10:00Now
  1592. 1:10:02that might have seemed like a lot.
  1593. 1:10:05I'm going to give you extra credit
  1594. 1:10:07points
  1595. 1:10:09or extra assignment points cuz I don't
  1596. 1:10:10give extra credit. Extra assignment
  1597. 1:10:12points for doing one of for doing this
  1598. 1:10:16data set exactly the way I've written it
  1599. 1:10:19out.
  1600. 1:10:20I want to continue to stress that if you
  1601. 1:10:22see me write all of this out
  1602. 1:10:25you write all of it out.
  1603. 1:10:27I want to see everything so that I can
  1604. 1:10:29follow what you're doing so that you can
  1605. 1:10:32get full credit. You won't get full
  1606. 1:10:35credit if I don't see
  1607. 1:10:38um
  1608. 1:10:39you writing out the full strategy. And
  1609. 1:10:43for this problem
  1610. 1:10:45I want to see the standard deviation for
  1611. 1:10:48the data set.
  1612. 1:10:507.9 I want to I want to see that on your
  1613. 1:10:52calculator.
  1614. 1:10:54And
  1615. 1:10:56I want you to write out the full
  1616. 1:10:58decision. Everything that I write is
  1617. 1:11:00what I want you to write.
  1618. 1:11:04And there you have it.
  1619. 1:11:06We just computed our first ANOVA.
  1620. 1:11:09And again, remember the Sesame Street
  1621. 1:11:10question. One of these things is not
  1622. 1:11:13like the other.
  1623. 1:11:15Well, our ANOVA
  1624. 1:11:17lets us or tells us at least one of
  1625. 1:11:20these population means is different. But
  1626. 1:11:23we still don't again know exactly which
  1627. 1:11:25one. That's a question for for analysis.
  1628. 1:11:27Here's what I want you to remember.
  1629. 1:11:29Statistics doesn't begin with a formula.
  1630. 1:11:33Statistics begins with a question,
  1631. 1:11:35curiosity.
  1632. 1:11:37The formula is simply tools
  1633. 1:11:40to help us
  1634. 1:11:41investigate the things that we're
  1635. 1:11:43curious about.
  1636. 1:11:44And ANOVA gives us a way to find a
  1637. 1:11:47signal in all that noise.
  1638. 1:11:51That's chapter 11. I'm looking forward
  1639. 1:11:53to our
  1640. 1:11:57live lecture this week.
  1641. 1:12:00We're going to explore this a little bit
  1642. 1:12:02further and I'll be able to answer any
  1643. 1:12:04questions and sort of set you up for
  1644. 1:12:06chapter 11 exercises. Having said that,
  1645. 1:12:09as always,
  1646. 1:12:10I'm super excited to see
  1647. 1:12:13all the statistics you find this week.
  1648. 1:12:16And can you believe we are only just a
  1649. 1:12:18few chapters left?
  1650. 1:12:20Chapter 12, chapter 13, chapter 14, and
  1651. 1:12:23then
  1652. 1:12:24we have our final exam. So our time
  1653. 1:12:26together is coming to an end. And I hope
  1654. 1:12:29what you can say is that
  1655. 1:12:32even though you walked into this course
  1656. 1:12:33with
  1657. 1:12:35a pretty severe
  1658. 1:12:37math wound,
  1659. 1:12:40that
  1660. 1:12:42you practiced,
  1661. 1:12:44you focused,
  1662. 1:12:46and you
  1663. 1:12:47made a big, significant, maybe even
  1664. 1:12:50statistically significant
  1665. 1:12:53dent in reducing that anxiety, that math
  1666. 1:12:56wound, and finding that you are,
  1667. 1:13:00I don't know,
  1668. 1:13:03a rock star.
  1669. 1:13:04I'll see you this week.

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