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BREAKING Ex-CIA: Saudis Told the US to Leave- Iran's Victory Starts at Khamenei's Funeral — Transcript

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  1. 0:01Well, today is Monday,
  2. 0:04June 29th, and I am happy privileged to
  3. 0:08welcome my dear friend and my brother
  4. 0:11Larry
  5. 0:12Johnson
  6. 0:14with his CIA background to help us
  7. 0:17analyze what is going on in the world.
  8. 0:19And as you know, we have come into
  9. 0:23existence very recently, but we are very
  10. 0:26grateful to you for supporting us. We
  11. 0:29have received very significant support
  12. 0:32from all of you all over the world. And
  13. 0:34soon we will be in
  14. 0:37all
  15. 0:3812 major languages.
  16. 0:40Maybe as a week as of a week from now.
  17. 0:43So our voices will be heard everywhere.
  18. 0:47And our
  19. 0:50The reason we came into existence is
  20. 0:51that we have been privileged to be
  21. 0:55provided with the news that drives the
  22. 0:58news, and we bring it to you. And not
  23. 1:01only that, we bring to you experts that
  24. 1:04are true experts such as Larry Johnson
  25. 1:07and Pepe Escobar. Also in a different
  26. 1:09category, different perspective, Vijay
  27. 1:12Prashad, and there are others who will
  28. 1:15be joining us who have the independent
  29. 1:18ability to understand and analyze the
  30. 1:20news that is happening as well as the
  31. 1:23news that we provide to you. So with
  32. 1:25that introduction,
  33. 1:26I give it to you, Larry. Go ahead.
  34. 1:29>> Well,
  35. 1:30thanks. I'll call you Dr. Z. Makes you
  36. 1:32sound like a character out of a James
  37. 1:34Bond film.
  38. 1:36>> [laughter]
  39. 1:38>> Happy to be Dr. Z.
  40. 1:41>> You know, the
  41. 1:42we've seen over the weekend the first
  42. 1:45open violation of the MOU by the United
  43. 1:48States.
  44. 1:49The way it's being played in the West as
  45. 1:51if trying to portray Iran as the
  46. 1:53violator, but that's absolutely not the
  47. 1:56case.
  48. 1:57Uh Iran
  49. 1:59um
  50. 2:00was in in the MOU granted authority
  51. 2:03for determining the safe passage of
  52. 2:06ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Uh
  53. 2:08that's uh paragraph five of that
  54. 2:10document. Uh it's it's quite quite
  55. 2:13explicit. There there is no should be no
  56. 2:16no confusion about it
  57. 2:18uh whatsoever. Uh that
  58. 2:21uh when you when you look at the um
  59. 2:24uh when you look at the details that are
  60. 2:26contained
  61. 2:28it doesn't say that uh the Iran along
  62. 2:32with Oman or the other Gulf countries
  63. 2:35will come to agreement. It's just it's
  64. 2:38it's very very plain
  65. 2:40that it is Iran alone
  66. 2:43that has that authority under that MOU.
  67. 2:46And not even the United States asserts a
  68. 2:48a right to interfere in that decision.
  69. 2:52Iran's decision has been made based upon
  70. 2:54what's called the Persian Gulf Strait
  71. 2:56Authority protocols that were issued
  72. 2:59about four weeks ago.
  73. 3:00And in it it stipulated what the what
  74. 3:02procedures
  75. 3:04uh countries are supposed to follow that
  76. 3:05wanting to to bring ships uh through the
  77. 3:08strait.
  78. 3:09Uh
  79. 3:10last Friday
  80. 3:12uh the UK Maritime Trade Organization
  81. 3:16uh tried to sneak one through
  82. 3:19and encouraged a ship called the Ever
  83. 3:21Lovely
  84. 3:22uh to try to go through the strait.
  85. 3:25Um
  86. 3:27it Iran hit it with a drone.
  87. 3:29And in response to that, the United
  88. 3:32States decided that it was going to
  89. 3:35attack Iran. Now again
  90. 3:37there is not a one prohibition in the
  91. 3:41entire MOU
  92. 3:43against Iran acting against ships that
  93. 3:45are violating
  94. 3:47what Iran considers its territorial
  95. 3:49waters.
  96. 3:50And there's nothing in there is
  97. 3:51stipulating that United States has any
  98. 3:53right of enforcement. In fact, the only
  99. 3:56thing in the MOU that is stipulated is
  100. 3:59that the United States is going to stop
  101. 4:01attacking Iran and stop making threats
  102. 4:05against Iran.
  103. 4:07Well, the US violated both of those on
  104. 4:09Friday.
  105. 4:10Uh in
  106. 4:12in response to that, Iran carried out
  107. 4:14what I'll call a symbolic retaliation.
  108. 4:16It really was not significant
  109. 4:18militarily.
  110. 4:20And it turns out that what the US the US
  111. 4:23military attacks also were more symbolic
  112. 4:26than actually substantive in terms of
  113. 4:28really inflicting damage on Iran.
  114. 4:32This followed on Saturday by two more
  115. 4:34ships trying to transit the the strait
  116. 4:37along the Omani coast.
  117. 4:39And again, Iran intervening. One of the
  118. 4:42ships was accompanied by uh
  119. 4:44you know, so that US air escort. I don't
  120. 4:48know exactly how you can escort a ship
  121. 4:50that's going on 12
  122. 4:52knots per hour
  123. 4:53uh while the uh aircraft are flying at
  124. 4:56300 knots per hour, but you know,
  125. 4:59that's a that's a whole 'nother issue.
  126. 5:02But anyway,
  127. 5:03uh Iran fired on those ships
  128. 5:05and then in in the course of that uh
  129. 5:08launched an attack on the air base of
  130. 5:11the US naval air
  131. 5:14the the the headquarters for the US
  132. 5:16naval fleet in Bahrain, the fifth fleet.
  133. 5:20That led to another US
  134. 5:22air strikes against Iran.
  135. 5:24And Iran again retaliated by unleashing
  136. 5:27pretty heavy bombing and missile
  137. 5:30missile and drone strikes on an air base
  138. 5:33in Kuwait, the Al
  139. 5:34Al Ali Al Salem and then the Al Jaber
  140. 5:38air base in Bahrain.
  141. 5:40But there were no US aircraft uh based
  142. 5:43there.
  143. 5:44So,
  144. 5:45at that point you say, "What's going to
  145. 5:46happen next? Is the United States going
  146. 5:48to retaliate and escalate this?"
  147. 5:51The The US did not escalate. The US
  148. 5:54backed down.
  149. 5:56And I think there are a couple of
  150. 5:57reasons for it backing down. Number one,
  151. 5:59uh the United States is in the process
  152. 6:01of withdrawing its forces from the
  153. 6:03region.
  154. 6:05Now, one of the objectives in the
  155. 6:08creation of a new security architecture
  156. 6:11for the Persian Gulf is the removal of
  157. 6:14US military forces and US military bases
  158. 6:18from the Gulf countries.
  159. 6:20We are We are informed, I'd say reliably
  160. 6:24informed, uh thanks to the work of Dr.
  161. 6:27Z,
  162. 6:28that
  163. 6:29uh
  164. 6:30the the Saudis and the Qataris have both
  165. 6:33indicated to the United States that they
  166. 6:35should vacate uh any bases that they
  167. 6:38currently occupy or have personnel
  168. 6:40posted to uh within the next 9 to 10
  169. 6:43months.
  170. 6:44Now, the the base in Qatar at Al Udeid,
  171. 6:47uh it's it's What's noteworthy about
  172. 6:49that is really the main activity there
  173. 6:54was known as the Combined Air Operations
  174. 6:56Center, the CAOC.
  175. 6:58>> [snorts]
  176. 6:58>> Uh the CAOC, uh after the start of the
  177. 7:01war on February 28th, was hit.
  178. 7:05And it has subsequently been relocated
  179. 7:08to uh uh Shaw Air Force Base in South
  180. 7:12Carolina.
  181. 7:14So, the US, for all practical purposes,
  182. 7:18has actually pulled out of Al Udeid. The
  183. 7:22The number of personnel that used to be
  184. 7:24based there have been drawn drawn down
  185. 7:27substantially. I I would argue that what
  186. 7:29you have there really now is a token
  187. 7:31force, not a significant force. Uh the
  188. 7:35same can be said for US presence in
  189. 7:37Saudi Arabia.
  190. 7:39So, it it it is it's as the backdrop of
  191. 7:43this conflict between the United States
  192. 7:45and Iran.
  193. 7:46We are saying that there is while the
  194. 7:49United States has not declared that it's
  195. 7:51closing the Fifth Fleet headquarters or
  196. 7:54that it's closing Al Udeid or that it's
  197. 7:56going to completely withdraw from
  198. 7:59the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi
  199. 8:01Arabia.
  200. 8:02The practical reality is that they have
  201. 8:06the US has pulled out its its forces.
  202. 8:10So we are we're beginning to enter an
  203. 8:13era
  204. 8:14in which the Gulf era the Gulf countries
  205. 8:18will have to consider going forward
  206. 8:20without a protective umbrella from the
  207. 8:22United States but
  208. 8:24as they've seen over the course of the
  209. 8:27last four months
  210. 8:29this umbrella of the United States is
  211. 8:31not a protector.
  212. 8:33In fact, it's a magnet. A magnet
  213. 8:35[laughter] for missiles, a magnet for
  214. 8:37missiles and drones. And
  215. 8:40>> Yes, just the opposite.
  216. 8:41>> Yeah, the Saudis the Saudis and Qataris
  217. 8:44are going I don't think we like this
  218. 8:46anymore. So
  219. 8:48that
  220. 8:49that's that where we stand now is United
  221. 8:52States has requested talks.
  222. 8:54They're they're portraying it as you
  223. 8:55know
  224. 8:56Iran called us up and wants to talk in
  225. 8:58Doha so we'll go hear them out.
  226. 9:01Now
  227. 9:02it's the United States that wanted wants
  228. 9:05to meet. They're trying to keep this
  229. 9:08charade
  230. 9:09or sharade however you like to pronounce
  231. 9:11it of of an MOU going forward but I
  232. 9:15think there is growing
  233. 9:17political pressure inside Iran to walk
  234. 9:21away from it. Uh
  235. 9:23but we'll we'll see
  236. 9:25what pans out in the next couple of
  237. 9:27days.
  238. 9:29>> Well
  239. 9:30uh
  240. 9:31can I
  241. 9:32can I say
  242. 9:33uh
  243. 9:34what I know earlier or do you want to
  244. 9:36say some more?
  245. 9:37>> No, no, go ahead. Yes. Uh
  246. 9:38>> Well, Larry, thank thank you very much
  247. 9:41for the introduction and I did not say
  248. 9:43this
  249. 9:44earlier when I made the introduction,
  250. 9:46but if you like what we do, we kindly
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  256. 10:03and hit if you like what we do.
  257. 10:05Uh
  258. 10:07Please understand the global audience to
  259. 10:09whom this is addressed that there is a
  260. 10:13layer of news that is publicly available
  261. 10:17and unfortunately
  262. 10:19varnished by the corporate media, so you
  263. 10:22don't even see that but you see some
  264. 10:25version of it uh in legacy media. And
  265. 10:28then there is analysis that is provided
  266. 10:31by by people who have a better
  267. 10:34understanding of what is going on.
  268. 10:36Now, over here, the reason we did this
  269. 10:39is because we have the ability to obtain
  270. 10:43some information that is privileged uh
  271. 10:46that is trusted to us. Uh this is
  272. 10:49information we bought for. Uh this is in
  273. 10:52information on which we stand and it has
  274. 10:55been proven to be accurate. And we not
  275. 10:58only obtain that and bring it, but we
  276. 11:01bring it to experts like Larry like Pepe
  277. 11:05who who have a world of experience in
  278. 11:09analyzing this. And they present that
  279. 11:12information to you. So, it is it goes
  280. 11:14through a multiple set of layers before
  281. 11:17you
  282. 11:17hear it and
  283. 11:19and you hear exactly what is going on in
  284. 11:21the world. So, from what I know and I've
  285. 11:24shared this with Larry before we got
  286. 11:26here there has been a tremendous
  287. 11:28pressure on Iran to walk out. In fact,
  288. 11:31the first time uh
  289. 11:33the White House
  290. 11:34uh uh ordered strikes,
  291. 11:36Iran immediately said, "We're not going
  292. 11:39to be bound by the by the MOU that we
  293. 11:41signed after so much effort."
  294. 11:44But, there has been a tremendous effort
  295. 11:46by the Pakistanis who have played a very
  296. 11:49significant role. And through a
  297. 11:51character that not many people know,
  298. 11:54Mohsin Naqvi,
  299. 11:56uh who is an interior minister in
  300. 11:57Pakistan, uh people hear about uh Field
  301. 12:00Marshal Munir. Obviously, Munir has
  302. 12:02played played a very important part in
  303. 12:04all of this. People hear about Shahbaz
  304. 12:07Sharif, the Prime Minister, because he's
  305. 12:09the
  306. 12:10uh head of the government from that
  307. 12:12point of view. But, uh there is a
  308. 12:14character by the name of Mohsin Naqvi.
  309. 12:16Mohsin Naqvi,
  310. 12:18uh
  311. 12:19his
  312. 12:20his his son-in-law is the head of 40
  313. 12:23million Shias in Pakistan.
  314. 12:25Highly respected, highly highly regarded
  315. 12:28by the Shia community in Iran.
  316. 12:30So,
  317. 12:31he has been dispatched uh by Pakistan
  318. 12:34repeatedly and was dispatched very
  319. 12:36recently to have talks with with his
  320. 12:39Iranian counterparts,
  321. 12:41uh namely the head of IRGC, namely the
  322. 12:44uh the speaker of the parliament. These
  323. 12:46are all the powers to be. And and also
  324. 12:49the supreme leader,
  325. 12:51uh uh not as extensively because the
  326. 12:53supreme leader relies upon the council
  327. 12:55of these other people. And they have
  328. 12:57been advised to not walk out. And in
  329. 13:01fact, they are not going to walk out.
  330. 13:03They are going to slow walk this.
  331. 13:05Uh they are not going to say that, "Yes,
  332. 13:07we are walking out." or "No, we are not
  333. 13:09walking out." Uh we have announced in on
  334. 13:12this channel
  335. 13:13before that that they are going to have
  336. 13:16the Iranians are going to have a victory
  337. 13:18celebration
  338. 13:20of having obtained a strategic victory
  339. 13:23over the United States in the funeral
  340. 13:26procession that is going to be underway
  341. 13:29very soon where they are going to bury
  342. 13:31Ali Khamenei, the father of the present
  343. 13:34supreme leader in the holiest one of the
  344. 13:37holiest of
  345. 13:38of Shia Islamic sites uh in Mashhad.
  346. 13:43That is going to happen in the next
  347. 13:44couple of days. And there is going to be
  348. 13:46a delegation there from all over the
  349. 13:48world, but the most important delegation
  350. 13:51in terms of
  351. 13:52the negotiations with the United States
  352. 13:55would be the delegation that arrives
  353. 13:56from Pakistan. The Prime Minister, other
  354. 13:59heads of state, the field marshal who
  355. 14:02are going to be there ostensibly to join
  356. 14:05the funeral
  357. 14:07talks and so forth and and condolences.
  358. 14:10But they're going to have very important
  359. 14:12talks with the Iranian with the Iranian
  360. 14:14leadership. And it is it is
  361. 14:18something that I am privileged to
  362. 14:20provide to you as very
  363. 14:23valuable news. Uh this is not going to
  364. 14:26be
  365. 14:27uh
  366. 14:28felt in such in such a way immediately,
  367. 14:31but it is going to change the entire
  368. 14:34region from a geopolitical point of
  369. 14:36view. Saudi Arabia most importantly has
  370. 14:40been solidly behind Pakistan
  371. 14:43and urging Pakistan and Iran through
  372. 14:48through Pakistan that the time has come
  373. 14:50for the United States to
  374. 14:53get out of here.
  375. 14:55Literally get out of here.
  376. 14:56And we will see this happen in the next
  377. 14:586 to 9 months.
  378. 15:00Not only in Saudi Arabia,
  379. 15:03in Qatar in Oman
  380. 15:06and it is our expectation in Iran as
  381. 15:11well. In the UAE as well.
  382. 15:13Maybe a little bit later. Now, not known
  383. 15:16to the world, Pakistan has played a very
  384. 15:18important role in bringing Iran and and
  385. 15:22UAE together. There have been
  386. 15:25talks, some of them secret, between the
  387. 15:27foreign ministers of UAE and Iran. And
  388. 15:31the result of that that you can see is
  389. 15:33the resumption of air travel. Very
  390. 15:36significant.
  391. 15:38Very, very significant that Iran and UAE
  392. 15:42are going to have air travel between
  393. 15:44those two countries. But more important
  394. 15:46than that is that air travel will resume
  395. 15:49to Dubai. Dubai
  396. 15:52without air travel is nothing.
  397. 15:55It's a plastic city in the middle of a
  398. 15:57desert
  399. 15:59if there are no visitors there.
  400. 16:02So, the fact that that UAE and Iran can
  401. 16:06come together
  402. 16:07with Pakistan as a midwife making this
  403. 16:09happen is extraordinarily significant
  404. 16:12because it is going to change again the
  405. 16:15nature of the geopolitics in the nation
  406. 16:17in the nation in in the entire region.
  407. 16:20And in the world.
  408. 16:22Whatever Trump does now has absolutely
  409. 16:25no meaning at all.
  410. 16:27He can have his tantrums. He can make
  411. 16:29these strikes. They are pinpricks.
  412. 16:32And and they're not going to change the
  413. 16:34the outcome of what is what is about to
  414. 16:36happen.
  415. 16:38I bring it to you, Larry.
  416. 16:40>> Yeah, so
  417. 16:42uh this
  418. 16:43the the burial
  419. 16:45and the ceremony surrounding the
  420. 16:47internment
  421. 16:49of the Ayatollah Khamenei
  422. 16:52uh
  423. 16:53the late Ayatollah Khamenei
  424. 16:55will actually be
  425. 16:57uh a distraction
  426. 16:59um because as I understand it the
  427. 17:02the
  428. 17:03the ceremonies and the and observances
  429. 17:06will start
  430. 17:07uh around July 2nd.
  431. 17:10So, we're looking at Thursday.
  432. 17:12And will continue for at least
  433. 17:16a week
  434. 17:17uh to at least July July 9th, July 11th.
  435. 17:21So,
  436. 17:22the why why is that important? That
  437. 17:25because it's during that time that
  438. 17:27essentially
  439. 17:28uh
  440. 17:29Iran is not going to be engaged with the
  441. 17:32United States necessarily on any
  442. 17:35negotiating negotiation track.
  443. 17:39Iran will continue to enforce the
  444. 17:42protocols in the Strait of Hormuz.
  445. 17:46So, with along with those that
  446. 17:47enforcement comes the risk
  447. 17:50that the
  448. 17:52uh United States may again try to carry
  449. 17:54out attacks on Iran.
  450. 17:57And let's not forget that both between
  451. 17:59the United States and Mossad
  452. 18:01in Israel
  453. 18:03that they will continue to support and
  454. 18:05stir up Kurdish attacks
  455. 18:07against uh Iranian border uh police
  456. 18:11and border forces.
  457. 18:13Uh so, uh this will uh the the
  458. 18:17the West will do everything in its
  459. 18:19power, I believe, to make sure that the
  460. 18:22interment of the Ayatollah is not a
  461. 18:25peaceful
  462. 18:26uh quiet event. There will be attempts
  463. 18:29to disrupt it from the outside.
  464. 18:32The um
  465. 18:34the
  466. 18:36the
  467. 18:37the other sort of there two other issues
  468. 18:41that are going to become potentially uh
  469. 18:43salient.
  470. 18:44One is the appearance
  471. 18:47that um
  472. 18:49Saudi Arabia is getting ready to engage
  473. 18:52uh the uh Houthis. That's That's how the
  474. 18:54media is portraying it. But, the fact of
  475. 18:56the matter is
  476. 18:58uh this is more of a Saudi
  477. 19:00confrontation with the United Arab
  478. 19:02Emirate
  479. 19:03and the faction that the Emiratis
  480. 19:05support in Yemen
  481. 19:07as opposed to the faction that the
  482. 19:09Saudis uh support. So, the gathering of
  483. 19:13Saudi forces on the border with Yemen
  484. 19:16has has more to do with
  485. 19:19uh the United Arab Emirates, less to do
  486. 19:21with the Houthis. That said, the Houthis
  487. 19:24have activated uh and
  488. 19:28organized a potential response force.
  489. 19:32Uh that they've
  490. 19:34uh sort of called up their reserves.
  491. 19:36So, that the
  492. 19:38there is there is a always a possibility
  493. 19:40that
  494. 19:41uh there could be a renewal of conflict
  495. 19:44in the the outbreak of the civil war in
  496. 19:47Yemen.
  497. 19:49Uh if it remains confined to United Arab
  498. 19:52Emirates versus the Saudis, that will
  499. 19:54not disrupt the peace process.
  500. 19:57If in fact it
  501. 19:59puts a re-ignites the strains between
  502. 20:02the Saudis and Iran, yes,
  503. 20:05that would that would be a direct
  504. 20:06challenge that uh Pakistan would be
  505. 20:10uh you know, trying to contain.
  506. 20:12Because that could that could derail the
  507. 20:15entire MOU process and peace process.
  508. 20:19So,
  509. 20:20uh
  510. 20:20it is a it is a volatile situation.
  511. 20:25The
  512. 20:26um we did also have the
  513. 20:28the action by the Supreme Council
  514. 20:31uh yesterday in Iran.
  515. 20:34That should not be ignored or taken
  516. 20:35lightly.
  517. 20:37Uh over over two-thirds of the members
  518. 20:40of that uh Supreme Council, it's a
  519. 20:42religious council,
  520. 20:44uh but uh they basically uh
  521. 20:47put the
  522. 20:49uh Araghchi and Gallibaf on notice
  523. 20:52that the terms of the MOU are to be
  524. 20:56strictly adhered to and that if the
  525. 20:58United States refuses to adhere to it,
  526. 21:01that uh the the Iranian officials should
  527. 21:05take appropriate action up to and
  528. 21:06including withdrawing from the process.
  529. 21:09So, again, that is another factor that
  530. 21:12has entered into
  531. 21:13the equation.
  532. 21:19>> You went silent.
  533. 21:21>> Say what?
  534. 21:22>> I
  535. 21:22I I you had gotten silent. I thought
  536. 21:25that maybe you you went on mute.
  537. 21:27>> Yeah, no, no. I so I I finished what I
  538. 21:29had to say on that.
  539. 21:30>> Okay, okay. Well, that's a very, very
  540. 21:32valuable analysis that Jerry and what I
  541. 21:35have to add to that
  542. 21:37based on my perspective and my contacts
  543. 21:40and so forth.
  544. 21:41And the privilege I have to some of the
  545. 21:45information that is that does not
  546. 21:47you know
  547. 21:48purple that does not come to the surface
  548. 21:50is that Pakistan has been
  549. 21:54extraordinarily
  550. 21:56engaged while the world is looking at
  551. 21:59all this chaos. Uh
  552. 22:02particularly with Mosin Naqvi
  553. 22:04who is highly respected.
  554. 22:06Not to mention that
  555. 22:09Field Marshal and Asim Munir Field
  556. 22:12Marshal Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif
  557. 22:14have been equally in touch with the
  558. 22:16Saudi with the Iranian leadership.
  559. 22:18Nothing is going to happen until
  560. 22:21Ali Khamenei is interred in Mashhad.
  561. 22:24Nothing significant is going to happen.
  562. 22:27I can assure you of that based upon
  563. 22:29everything I know.
  564. 22:30I'm not God. I'm not Nostradamus. I
  565. 22:33cannot predict the future, but this is
  566. 22:35what I know.
  567. 22:36I know that they do not plan on doing
  568. 22:39any such thing. I also know that the
  569. 22:42United
  570. 22:43that Saudi Arabia is really, really
  571. 22:48pissed at at Trump.
  572. 22:51K S
  573. 22:52MBS is pissed at Trump and MBS wants
  574. 22:55Trump out out of Saudi Arabia. And
  575. 22:58Pakistan is holding Saudi Arabia's hands
  576. 23:01and will make this transition happen.
  577. 23:04This is going to happen. This is not
  578. 23:06something that will be patched up again.
  579. 23:09This is going to happen. And when that
  580. 23:11happens,
  581. 23:12Saudi Arabia being the heavyweight in
  582. 23:14the region from a financial point of
  583. 23:16view is going to impact Qatar, impact
  584. 23:20impact Oman,
  585. 23:21impact UAE also.
  586. 23:24With Pakistan emerging as the muscle and
  587. 23:28both of them now
  588. 23:29intricately bound in this defense
  589. 23:32agreement which has a NATO-type clause
  590. 23:35in it,
  591. 23:36which has become more and more stronger.
  592. 23:39There is going to be
  593. 23:41a realignment,
  594. 23:43geopolitical realignment in that part of
  595. 23:46the world which will
  596. 23:48absolutely, without doubt, impact us in
  597. 23:51the West.
  598. 23:53Now, how it impacts from a financial
  599. 23:55standpoint because this is something
  600. 23:56that I know a few things about having
  601. 23:59been in
  602. 24:00part of the post
  603. 24:02uh
  604. 24:03you know,
  605. 24:04World War II arrangements that that came
  606. 24:06into place,
  607. 24:07Bretton Woods.
  608. 24:09US is going to have great difficulty
  609. 24:11dealing with its $40 trillion in debt.
  610. 24:14Great difficulty.
  611. 24:18And having Iran emerge as a regional
  612. 24:21power in that in that region with other
  613. 24:25Central Asian countries joining in,
  614. 24:28such as Azerbaijan, such as Turkey,
  615. 24:31such as such as Egypt is going to make
  616. 24:35that
  617. 24:36a very significant
  618. 24:38part of the world, particularly because
  619. 24:41because China
  620. 24:44is standing right behind it.
  621. 24:48The world is not going to be the same 5
  622. 24:50years from today as it as we know
  623. 24:53it now and as we have known it uh, for
  624. 24:55the last 40 years.
  625. 24:58I bring it back to you there.
  626. 24:59>> Well, I I I I think one of the
  627. 25:02one of the central issues with respect
  628. 25:04to the control of the Strait of Hormuz
  629. 25:07is the global economic impact.
  630. 25:10So,
  631. 25:12for starters,
  632. 25:14the we're now entering the fifth month
  633. 25:17with basically the effective closure of
  634. 25:20the Strait or very very limited traffic
  635. 25:23in the Strait.
  636. 25:25Uh,
  637. 25:26much of the focus is has been on oil.
  638. 25:29And oil is a significant consideration
  639. 25:32in terms of
  640. 25:34losing 20% of the global supply.
  641. 25:37And there are there are a lot of uh,
  642. 25:39stories circulating claiming that there
  643. 25:41has been smuggling of oil. That that I I
  644. 25:44I I think these are a delusional
  645. 25:48people.
  646. 25:49Uh, because the actual
  647. 25:51wells
  648. 25:53uh, in in the Gulf Arab countries were
  649. 25:55damaged in many cases. And so it's just
  650. 25:58not a simple matter of flipping an on
  651. 26:00switch and having it flow out.
  652. 26:02But when you look at the
  653. 26:04uh, the shortages that were imposed as
  654. 26:06well from the loss
  655. 26:08of helium and that's estimated
  656. 26:10you know, I've seen estimates ranging
  657. 26:12from
  658. 26:13uh, 33% to 44% of the global supply.
  659. 26:18Uh,
  660. 26:18and as a result of that the price of
  661. 26:20helium is more than doubled.
  662. 26:22And helium is a critical
  663. 26:25component in the production of computer
  664. 26:28chips.
  665. 26:29So, basically if you have less
  666. 26:32reduced supply of helium,
  667. 26:34that means you're going to have a
  668. 26:35reduced supply of computer chips,
  669. 26:38which means the price for those computer
  670. 26:41chips
  671. 26:42is going to go up,
  672. 26:44not down. And we have already seen that
  673. 26:47with Apple announcing
  674. 26:49that
  675. 26:50uh, its top
  676. 26:52iPhone
  677. 26:53the Mac I Apple 17 Max Pro
  678. 26:58uh that that's going to cost upwards of
  679. 27:00$200
  680. 27:02more than normal.
  681. 27:04Uh and that for the MacBook Pro at the
  682. 27:07top line
  683. 27:09uh $300 more. That's just from the cost
  684. 27:12of that uh helium.
  685. 27:14Similar effects with uh sulfur
  686. 27:17and sulfur is used both in the
  687. 27:19production
  688. 27:20of fertilizer, but it's also used in the
  689. 27:22production of uh you know, metal
  690. 27:24processing.
  691. 27:26Uh and and again, the cost on that
  692. 27:28doubled.
  693. 27:29Uh and and the same with urea.
  694. 27:31So, what we're what we're looking at is
  695. 27:34a global
  696. 27:35economic shock of higher inflation.
  697. 27:39Inflation caused because these critical
  698. 27:42commodities are now available, but only
  699. 27:45at a higher price and that higher price
  700. 27:48is driven primarily by scarcity.
  701. 27:51Not by uh
  702. 27:54growing demand for sake, but the
  703. 27:56combination of less supply
  704. 27:59equal or increasing demand is a recipe
  705. 28:03that you're going to have an
  706. 28:04inflationary shock that will go around
  707. 28:06the world.
  708. 28:07Uh and then with respect to the United
  709. 28:09States,
  710. 28:10uh it is running on literally running on
  711. 28:13empty when it comes to the choice
  712. 28:16between diesel fuel and jet fuel.
  713. 28:19Uh the the odds are high that the United
  714. 28:22States may face a real crisis on that
  715. 28:24front within the next three to four
  716. 28:26weeks. That was one of the reasons why
  717. 28:28Trump wanted to get the Strait of Hormuz
  718. 28:31open so quickly under the MOU.
  719. 28:33But what Iran has been doing is instead
  720. 28:36of shipp- they're not shipping oil to
  721. 28:38the United States. The Iran's oil is
  722. 28:40going to China and to other countries in
  723. 28:42Asia.
  724. 28:43Uh to Singapore
  725. 28:45to South Korea
  726. 28:47uh in India as well.
  727. 28:49And uh the instead of selling it for
  728. 28:53dollars
  729. 28:54they're selling it in May and accepting
  730. 28:56payment in Chinese currency.
  731. 28:58So, what what we're seeing is the
  732. 29:00continued emergence of this new world
  733. 29:02order
  734. 29:03a new world economic order that is going
  735. 29:06to be accompanied by a new world
  736. 29:09political and military order uh in the
  737. 29:12Persian Gulf.
  738. 29:15>> I could not have said it better, uh
  739. 29:16Larry. I could not have said it better.
  740. 29:18And
  741. 29:19I just want to add one thing, that China
  742. 29:22is standing right behind that, providing
  743. 29:25all the support that it needs to provide
  744. 29:29for everybody to know that this is
  745. 29:31backed not only by the political moves
  746. 29:35that are taking place, which uh some
  747. 29:37people can see and some cannot, uh but
  748. 29:40also by the
  749. 29:43by the commercial might and by the
  750. 29:45industrial might
  751. 29:47and by the military might of China.
  752. 29:50>> Yeah.
  753. 29:50>> I mean, not as a hegemon, not replacing
  754. 29:52the US as a hegemon, but replacing the
  755. 29:54US as a net provider of security
  756. 29:59uh in the face of Pakistan.
  757. 30:02>> Right.
  758. 30:02>> Which it has it has done.
  759. 30:04So,
  760. 30:06I think we covered a lot and I thank you
  761. 30:09very much for for your
  762. 30:12Monday session as as we had now have
  763. 30:15made it uh
  764. 30:17a a regular feature of our transition
  765. 30:19protocol. Uh tomorrow we will have Pepe
  766. 30:23Escobar uh take up this uh conversation.
  767. 30:27And on Wednesday we will have a joint
  768. 30:29session between Pepe and Larry and
  769. 30:32myself. And we we thank you for your
  770. 30:35support. Our last joint session, I just
  771. 30:38was informed, has crossed 300,000 views
  772. 30:41worldwide and and that is just very
  773. 30:44you know reassuring to us that there is
  774. 30:47an appetite for this kind of news. So I
  775. 30:51>> and before we leave, just hit that like
  776. 30:53and subscribe button. Uh
  777. 30:56put a smile on Dr. Z's face, please.
  778. 30:58>> [laughter]
  779. 30:59>> Thank you very very much. Thank you for
  780. 31:02everything.
  781. 31:02>> Yeah, yeah, just just don't
  782. 31:05I'm going to hit stop right now. So just
  783. 31:07one

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