BREAKING: Central Banks JUST Bought a Lot of Gold (brace yourself) — Transcript

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1. 0:00Central banks just started buying crazy
2. 0:01[snorts] amounts of gold again. And they
3. 0:03did it with oil up, the dollar up,
4. 0:06interest rates going up, and gold down
5. 0:0830% from January. Every excuse to dump
6. 0:11gold, yet they doubled down. So, if you
7. 0:13hold gold or silver, or you're planning
8. 0:15on buying some anytime soon, you have to
9. 0:17watch this. By the end of this video,
10. 0:19I'm going to show you why they are
11. 0:20buying right now, what happened the last
12. 0:22time they did this, and most
13. 0:23importantly, what it means for our gold
14. 0:26and silver. Let's figure this out
15. 0:28together. In case you don't know me, my
16. 0:29name is Nick. I've been a professional
17. 0:30investor and unprofessional trader for
18. 0:3225 years. I'm not a financial adviser
19. 0:34and this is not an inducement to buy or
20. 0:36sell any assets. And as always, do not
21. 0:37take financial advice from some random
22. 0:39dude on YouTube. So, first, what
23. 0:42actually happened? Actually, you know
24. 0:42what? Let me switch the green lights
25. 0:45because this is good news. So, what
26. 0:46actually happened? Central banks, the
27. 0:49guys who print each country's money,
28. 0:51like the Fed in America, they keep a big
29. 0:54pile of savings on the side called
30. 0:56reserves. Now if you go back 20 years,
31. 0:58those reserves used to be held in US
32. 1:00dollars. But now more and more countries
33. 1:03are abandoning the US dollar for gold.
34. 1:06The thing is we can track what those
35. 1:08countries are doing because every 3
36. 1:10months the world go gold council, the
37. 1:12gold industry's main research group adds
38. 1:15up how much gold they've bought. And the
39. 1:17numbers for July and September just came
40. 1:19out. 321
41. 1:22tons. That's how much they bought.
42. 1:24That's 42% more than the same three
43. 1:27months last year and the most that
44. 1:30central banks have bought in any
45. 1:31three-month period since the end of
46. 1:332024. The end of 2024 is important.
47. 1:35We'll talk about that in a bit.
48. 1:36[clears throat] But the crazy part is
49. 1:37how they got there. Because back in
50. 1:39January, when gold hits its record of
51. 1:41around 5,600, central banks almost
52. 1:44stopped buying. Price was just too high.
53. 1:46From January to March, they bought about
54. 1:4860 tons, the weakest start to a year in
55. 1:51more than 15 years. So, it wasn't a good
56. 1:53sign. Then gold started falling. April
57. 1:56to June, they bought about 290 tons.
58. 1:59That was a good sign, but it was one
59. 2:01data point, so we couldn't get too
60. 2:02excited yet. What we wanted to see is
61. 2:05buying around the same amount in the
62. 2:08next quarter. I would have been okay
63. 2:09with a little bit less, you know, like
64. 2:11250 tons. I would have been like, okay,
65. 2:13that's good. That's good. That's a good
66. 2:14sign still. But instead, they upped it
67. 2:16to 321 tons between July and September.
68. 2:20Crazy. So now they they are buying about
69. 2:24five times as much as they were at the
70. 2:26top. They didn't chase gold up. When
71. 2:28gold went up, they stopped buying. They
72. 2:30waited for it to come down. Then they
73. 2:33came back in and started buying. Like I
74. 2:35said, it looks central banks are boring.
75. 2:37But who was buying? So China was the
76. 2:40biggest buyer that we actually know
77. 2:41about with 63 tons. Poland was the next
78. 2:44biggest 40. The Polish are absolute
79. 2:46legends. I love the polls. Now, a couple
80. 2:48of weeks ago, I put out a video about
81. 2:50central banks dumping gold. So,
82. 2:52Kazakhstan, Turkey, Russia, and a few
83. 2:54others were selling. And look, I know
84. 2:55people laugh when I say Kazakhstan
85. 2:57because of Borat and how he made that
86. 2:59country look, but to be fair, that's a
87. 3:00not a great representation of Kazakhstan
88. 3:02as a country. It's a big player in gold.
89. 3:05It is uh the fourth biggest buyer this
90. 3:08year, and it is the 14th biggest holder
91. 3:10overall. So, if they were selling it, it
92. 3:12wasn't a great sign. That's why I made
93. 3:13that video. Uh, and there was a worry
94. 3:16back then that it could get worse. It
95. 3:17was this video. It should be on your
96. 3:18screen right now. So, look, I know some
97. 3:20of you are thinking, "Nick, what is it?
98. 3:22Make up your mind." But I just report
99. 3:23the data. We were seeing worrying signs
100. 3:25last month, and we had every right to be
101. 3:27concerned that central banks might start
102. 3:29selling gold. And we wanted to see the
103. 3:32next report. We thought the next report
104. 3:33could be bad, but it it isn't.
105. 3:35Surprisingly, this report was really,
106. 3:38really bloody good. Russia was the only
107. 3:40big seller about 19 tons to pay for its
108. 3:43war. and Kazakhstan, the one that made
109. 3:45the news for selling, still bought more
110. 3:47than it sold over the last 3 months. To
111. 3:49be fair though, these numbers do stop at
112. 3:51the end of September. So, October isn't
113. 3:53there yet, but so far it's looking
114. 3:55really good. Now, I know what a lot of
115. 3:57you are going to say. Why are central
116. 3:59banks buying when gold's falling? Now,
117. 4:01let me explain that. There are two
118. 4:03reasons. Number one, gold's on sale. And
119. 4:06number two, the dollar's expensive. The
120. 4:08first one's obvious, but I'll explain
121. 4:09the second one. You know what? I'll
122. 4:11explain both of them. The first one,
123. 4:12like I said, is obvious. Gold's down
124. 4:14about 30% from January. Central banks
125. 4:16aren't dumb. Like anyone, they'd rather
126. 4:18buy it at a discount. Now, the second
127. 4:20one is the important one because this
128. 4:22one's a bit uh sneakier, let's say. A
129. 4:25lot of money central banks hold is in US
130. 4:28dollars, mostly in US government bonds.
131. 4:31That's basically lending money to the US
132. 4:32government, and it pays you interest.
133. 4:34When those bonds finish, the central
134. 4:36bank gets its dollars back. Right now,
135. 4:39the dollar is near its strongest level
136. 4:41this year. So, if you think the dollar
137. 4:44is going to fall over the long run, this
138. 4:46is a great moment to swap your dollars
139. 4:49for gold. Think of it like changing
140. 4:51money before you go on holiday. You want
141. 4:53to do it when your money buys the most.
142. 4:55So, let's say you're planning on going
143. 4:56to Japan next year. I actually am. So,
144. 4:58this is a good example because I I
145. 5:00literally did this. Right now, the
146. 5:02Japanese yen is near its weakest that
147. 5:04it's been in a long time. I think since
148. 5:061986. So, I bought a whole lot of
149. 5:09Japanese yen, enough for that whole
150. 5:11holiday. That's because right now the US
151. 5:13dollar buys me more yen. And that's how
152. 5:16central banks think. Right now, the US
153. 5:18dollar is so strong. It buys the more
154. 5:20gold. So, the US dollar they have, the
155. 5:23US dollars they have, they are probably
156. 5:25exchanging it for gold. That's another
157. 5:27reason they're probably buying a lot
158. 5:28right now. Now, there's also another
159. 5:31question I know some of you will have
160. 5:32because I always see it in the comments.
161. 5:35Okay, Nick, if central banks are buying
162. 5:37this much, why is gold still falling?
163. 5:39Why did gold fall even more last week?
164. 5:42Why has it fallen bloody today? I'm glad
165. 5:44you asked. It's because central banks
166. 5:46aren't the only ones in the market.
167. 5:48Look, the war in Iran has pushed oil all
168. 5:50the way up like really high. Brent
169. 5:53basically, that's the world's main oil
170. 5:55price, has gone from about $73 a barrel
171. 5:58at the start of July to well over a
172. 6:00hundred now. And when oil goes up,
173. 6:02prices go up everywhere. So the Fed,
174. 6:04America Central Bank, raised interest
175. 6:06rates in September, and last week they
176. 6:08voted against changing interest rates,
177. 6:10but two members out of the 12 that voted
178. 6:12said that they wanted to raise them. So
179. 6:14there's pressure within the Fed to raise
180. 6:15rates. Now, higher rates mean savings
181. 6:18accounts and government bonds pay you
182. 6:20more. Gold pays you nothing. So a lot of
183. 6:22hot money traders chasing the quickest
184. 6:25return. They sell gold and they go after
185. 6:29the interest instead. So why doesn't all
186. 6:32the central bank buying push price back
187. 6:34up right away? Because they don't buy
188. 6:36like traders do. If a central bank goes
189. 6:39to Comx and says, "Give me 60 tons of
190. 6:41gold futures. Prices are going to bloody
191. 6:43explode." So they don't do that. The
192. 6:46ones with their own gold mines, they buy
193. 6:48straight from the miners. The rest, they
194. 6:50mostly buy privately through big banks
195. 6:52in London, bit by bit. That way they
196. 6:54don't push price up on the day they buy,
197. 6:56and it doesn't go crazy. Traders are the
198. 6:59opposite, though. when they sell, they
199. 7:01sell fast and in big amounts on markets
200. 7:03where price moves every single second
201. 7:06and most of it is paper gold. So the
202. 7:08selling pressure is multiplied because
203. 7:10they are using leverage. That's what
204. 7:12you're seeing on the chart. That's why
205. 7:13gold keeps getting forced down.
206. 7:16And you know that's gold's big problem
207. 7:18right now over the short term. Central
208. 7:20bank buying won't stop it falling. But
209. 7:23there's a big buyer sitting there every
210. 7:25time it does drop, which is actually
211. 7:27what you want to see. We want to see
212. 7:29short-term speculators getting out of
213. 7:31the market and the long-term
214. 7:32accumulators getting in because the last
215. 7:35time this happened in a big way was
216. 7:37between 2020 and 2022. Let's talk about
217. 7:40that. But first, if you're finding this
218. 7:41useful, hit the like and subscribe
219. 7:42button. It really does help out the
220. 7:44channel a lot and thank you very much
221. 7:45for doing so. So, let's get back to
222. 7:472020. Central banks had been buying
223. 7:49about 650 tons of gold a year. Then co
224. 7:52hit and gold shot up to a record of uh
225. 7:55275
226. 7:56that August and right at the top central
227. 7:59banks pulled back. They stopped buying a
228. 8:02couple of countries mainly Turkey and
229. 8:03Usbekiststan sold a lot of gold.
230. 8:06Usbekistan's also a big player in the
231. 8:07gold market by the way and from July to
232. 8:10September 2020 central banks as a whole
233. 8:12sold more gold than they bought for the
234. 8:14first time in 10 years. Then gold
235. 8:17started falling and central banks
236. 8:19started buying again. So, it was looking
237. 8:22good until February of 2022. Russia
238. 8:24invaded Ukraine. Oil shot up, prices
239. 8:26went up everywhere, and the Fed started
240. 8:28raising interest rates again. Gold
241. 8:30spiked when the war started, and then it
242. 8:32fell down about 22% to around $1,600 an
243. 8:35ounce by the end of September. And in
244. 8:37those same three months, July to
245. 8:39September 2022, central banks bought a
246. 8:41record amount of gold, even more than
247. 8:43they bought in this last quarter, $400
248. 8:45tons. That year they bought more gold
249. 8:48than in any year since records began in
250. 8:501950. Does that sound familiar? It
251. 8:53bloody sounds familiar to me. They
252. 8:55stopped at the top, came back in on the
253. 8:57debt, and the setup's almost the same as
254. 8:59today. A war that starts in late
255. 9:02February. That was Iran. Oil shooting
256. 9:04up, the Fed raising rates, gold falling
257. 9:07more than 20%. Now look, the dip wasn't
258. 9:10as crazy as this dip we're currently
259. 9:12experiencing right now. It was 20%, this
260. 9:14one's over 30%. But still, it shows you
261. 9:17how central banks operate. And gold did
262. 9:20take off after that. It just just not
263. 9:22straight away. So, let's talk about that
264. 9:23real quick. Now, if you watch your gold
265. 9:25drop 30% since January, if you bought
266. 9:27the top, you're probably wondering if
267. 9:29this means the bottom is in. So, let's
268. 9:32look at what gold actually did back
269. 9:34then. So, it bounced, then it dropped
270. 9:36again. It it took until the end of 2023,
271. 9:39more than a year after the low, for gold
272. 9:41to finally break that old record and
273. 9:43hold it. If you were holding back then,
274. 9:45it felt like nothing was ever going to
275. 9:46happen. And then it all happened. And
276. 9:49only then came came the big run really
277. 9:52from just over $2,000 an ounce at the
278. 9:54end of 2023 to 5,600 this January. So
279. 9:58central banks buying at the bottom
280. 9:59didn't mean that gold went up the next
281. 10:01day. It was a period of accumulation,
282. 10:04more than a year of them buying while
283. 10:06price went up and down, up and down
284. 10:08before it absolutely blew up. And look,
285. 10:11that's one data point, not a promise.
286. 10:13Gold could go lower from here, before it
287. 10:15goes anywhere. But but it does tell us
288. 10:17something. With everything lined up
289. 10:19against gold, they still bloody bought
290. 10:21more back then and they're still buying
291. 10:23more now. Now, why are the people who
292. 10:25print money swapping it for gold? You
293. 10:28know what? I'm not going to talk about
294. 10:29that. We all know the answer to that one
295. 10:30because fiat currencies suck. The US
296. 10:32dollar sucks. It gets inflated like
297. 10:35crazy. Of course, they're bloody buying
298. 10:36gold. So, what am I doing with my gold?
299. 10:39So, gold got to 3.9K. Uh, and I bought a
300. 10:43bit. That was the first level I wrote
301. 10:44down months ago. I told you guys about
302. 10:46it. That's what I've been talking about
303. 10:47for ages. I said if it goes to 3.9K, I
304. 10:50am buying a little bit of gold and I
305. 10:52finally bought some. Uh, I'm just
306. 10:54following my buy plans. If it goes
307. 10:56lower, I'll buy more. A bit more at
308. 10:583.7K. a fair bit more to be honest. And
309. 11:00if it goes under 3.5K or gets close to
310. 11:023.5K, I'm going to back up the truck.
311. 11:05Now, look, I'm not saying it's
312. 11:06impossible for it to go lower right now.
313. 11:09Uh even with central banks buying, like
314. 11:11I said, if we look at 2020 through to
315. 11:132022, it could go lower. What I'm saying
316. 11:15is that the central bank picture, which
317. 11:18was a big part of the rally that gold
318. 11:20has had since 2020, is looking good
319. 11:22again. I don't know where the bottom is,
320. 11:25and nobody does. I'm just happy to buy
321. 11:28more if it gets cheaper. Same as the
322. 11:30central banks. That's what I'm doing
323. 11:32with my money, not what you should do
324. 11:33with yours. But honestly, I'm excited
325. 11:35about this. For a few weeks, it looked
326. 11:37like central banks might be walking away
327. 11:38from gold. And it turns out they are
328. 11:40buying more. And the people selling gold
329. 11:42right now are mostly traders chasing
330. 11:44interest and, you know, speculators and
331. 11:46a few countries that really desperately
332. 11:48need the cash because of the effects of
333. 11:50the Iran war. If you're not one of them,
334. 11:52then nobody can make you sell. By the
335. 11:54way guys, I launched a new channel
336. 11:56because I can never do things small
337. 11:58scale. I start doing too many videos and
338. 12:00then I realized I have a lot of stuff I
339. 12:02want to share about the finance space
340. 12:04with you guys, not just gold and silver,
341. 12:05but because I'm one guy and I hate the
342. 12:07idea of replicating myself with AI.
343. 12:10Putting putting an AI version of myself
344. 12:12out there is disgusting. Uh, and I don't
345. 12:15want to do that. So, the only solution
346. 12:16was to bring in more hosts. So, go check
347. 12:18out my new channel. It's called Finance
348. 12:20Stack. It is me and a bunch of
349. 12:21incredible hosts. The first one's called
350. 12:23Kamal. He's an absolute legend. He has
351. 12:26three economics degrees. He knows more
352. 12:28about economics than I do. And another
353. 12:31guy who hasn't done a video on there yet
354. 12:33is called Michael from Canada. He's an
355. 12:35absolute legend, too. He'll be doing
356. 12:37some videos soon, too. I think his first
357. 12:38video drops today. So, go check that
358. 12:40channel out. Please subscribe. Other
359. 12:42than that, thank you so much for
360. 12:43watching my videos and I'll see you guys
361. 12:45in the next