Boot Camp Day 19: How to Read News Data — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00all right what's good welcome to boot
2. 0:04camp
3. 0:05um I'm just gonna stop saying the days
4. 0:06because I don't know where we're at I
5. 0:08think we're getting close to uh three
6. 0:10weeks so hopefully you guys have been
7. 0:12powering through kind of crazy I've been
8. 0:14uploading every single day for three
9. 0:15weeks seems Seems insane there's been
10. 0:17some days where we've literally uploaded
11. 0:18two videos a day
12. 0:20um it's really motivating I want to keep
13. 0:22it up uh we're almost a month into this
14. 0:24and we're we're you know we're working
15. 0:26we're working slow and steady all right
16. 0:29um you know we're we're getting to where
17. 0:32we need to be we're slowly you know
18. 0:34we're almost done with the building
19. 0:36blocks we're almost getting into
20. 0:37strategy probably by the end of the
21. 0:39month we'll be done
22. 0:41um we'll be done with the building
23. 0:43blocks and we'll have the strategy
24. 0:45locked down
25. 0:47um but today is not about trading today
26. 0:49it's about kind of like psychology but
27. 0:51or it's sort of about trading um but
28. 0:53since we had CPI news data today I
29. 0:57figured today
30. 0:59um is one of the best days for us to
31. 1:02talk about news in the market and you
32. 1:05know what types of news you shouldn't
33. 1:07trade
34. 1:08um why you should be patient with news
35. 1:11um and I was actually just on a a zoom
36. 1:13call with my Discord and it was it
37. 1:16actually made me rage
38. 1:19um seeing how many people
39. 1:22traded during CPI and before CPI and
40. 1:26wanted to trade after CPI so I figured
41. 1:29let's make this the video for today
42. 1:32um
43. 1:33so let's get right into it let's talk
44. 1:36about news in the market okay so first
45. 1:39of all this is going to be who knows how
46. 1:42long but I'm going to try and cover
47. 1:43everything about news
48. 1:45um possible in this video so hopefully
49. 1:47we don't have to recover it again and
50. 1:49I'm trying going to try and drill this
51. 1:51into your guys's skull
52. 1:54um about the [ __ ] so
53. 1:57first of all where do I get my news from
54. 1:59it is called Forex Factory okay so I
55. 2:02literally just go forexfactory.com and
56. 2:05when you come on here
57. 2:06initially it'll look like this
58. 2:10let's put all these things on here
59. 2:17it'll look like this and this is this is
60. 2:20a lot to take in okay so the way that I
61. 2:24like to do it is
62. 2:26I know that these yellow folders these
63. 2:28are just random stupid news events that
64. 2:31happen day in and day out that don't
65. 2:32really affect the marketing that's why
66. 2:34they're yellow
67. 2:35okay so I get rid of those I leave the
68. 2:38gray folders because those announced
69. 2:39like bank holidays and days where there
70. 2:41aren't trading days so I get rid of the
71. 2:43yellow folders and then I also get rid
72. 2:46of all the currencies that I don't trade
73. 2:48so do I trade AUD USD or any AUD pair no
74. 2:51do I trade any Canadian dollar pair nope
75. 2:55do I trade any
76. 2:57um CHF pair no do I trade any uh Chinese
77. 3:00yen pair no do I trade any European pair
78. 3:05nope do I trade a GBP a Great British
79. 3:08pound pair yes I do I trade GBP USD and
80. 3:11GBP JPY cool do I trade a JPY pair yes I
81. 3:16trade GBP JPY cool do I trade NCD no I
82. 3:20do not do I trade a USD pair yes I trade
83. 3:23GBP USD I trade gold and then I also
84. 3:25trade the S P 500 your S P 500 news
85. 3:28events will be covered by USD okay
86. 3:31and then from there I hit apply filter
87. 3:33and boom much prettier knocks it down to
88. 3:37what we need to focus on okay as you can
89. 3:40see it labels what currencies the news
90. 3:42the news is for right in here
91. 3:45okay so from there right we we filtered
92. 3:49it down okay now let's talk about what
93. 3:53news we should try and avoid most of the
94. 3:56time if there is a red news folder no
95. 3:59matter what I will always always always
96. 4:02wait until the news comes out which you
97. 4:06can see what time it comes out right
98. 4:08here and the nice thing about this is it
99. 4:11um
100. 4:11it gets set up to like it automatically
101. 4:14like connects to whatever time zone
102. 4:16you're on so this it'll say it in your
103. 4:18time zone
104. 4:20um
105. 4:21so today we had CPI as you can see red
106. 4:23folder red folder red folder we also
107. 4:26have two red folders on GBP
108. 4:29um overall just a terrible probability
109. 4:32day to trade right we have three red
110. 4:34folders We Know That CPI news data
111. 4:36causes havoc in the market right if we
112. 4:39if we look we can see like even on GJ
113. 4:44oops if we go into the lower time frames
114. 4:47we can see how large these Wicks are
115. 4:49like boom this is right when CPI came
116. 4:52out massive Wick let's look at gold
117. 4:58right this is during CPI massive Wick
118. 5:01math like this is not price action that
119. 5:04you are able to trade it is unprobable
120. 5:06price action
121. 5:08so why don't we why do we want to wait
122. 5:11until afternoons on red folder days
123. 5:14because news is going to drastically
124. 5:16affect the market and
125. 5:19the nice thing about this is let's say
126. 5:22we only have one red folder and I'm okay
127. 5:24with trading on red folder days
128. 5:26it just depends on which ones okay so
129. 5:29let's say we have a red folder day and
130. 5:31we see the market and we wait for news
131. 5:33to come out and news comes out
132. 5:37we let price develop and news doesn't
133. 5:39affect the market that much
134. 5:41then I will be okay Trading right if you
135. 5:45news
136. 5:46doesn't affect the market for like after
137. 5:49like 15 or 20 minutes after it comes out
138. 5:52so at like 8 45 or like at 8 50
139. 5:56if news didn't affect the market I would
140. 5:59have been okay to trade but knowing CPI
141. 6:02CPI always affects the market
142. 6:04Okay so
143. 6:06that's that's my my kind of overall rule
144. 6:10with news red and orange folders
145. 6:13always wait for news to come out
146. 6:16let price develop
147. 6:19see if it drastically affected the
148. 6:20market you know with large Wicks large
149. 6:23moves okay and if it does that don't
150. 6:26trade
151. 6:27okay do not trade and if it doesn't
152. 6:30okay you can potentially look for a
153. 6:33trade but still be playing on that
154. 6:34defensive side still be playing with
155. 6:36that patience in mind knowing that hey
156. 6:39today it will probably be a lower
157. 6:40probability day I should probably risk
158. 6:43less I should probably reduce my risk I
159. 6:45should probably be looking to not trade
160. 6:47unless Market gives me a great
161. 6:49opportunity
162. 6:50and most the time it won't give you a
163. 6:52great opportunity
164. 6:53so de-risk yourself from the market when
165. 6:55there's big news
166. 6:57okay there's a couple news events that I
167. 6:59always avoid you guys should write these
168. 7:01down CPI PPI fomc
169. 7:06and NFP
170. 7:09those four CPI
171. 7:11which happened today
172. 7:14PPI which is happening tomorrow
173. 7:16fomc which is also happening tomorrow
174. 7:20and then NFP non-farm payroll anything
175. 7:22that says non-farm non-farm employment
176. 7:24non-farm payroll nope no go okay those
177. 7:29four I will not I do not trade
178. 7:31whatsoever
179. 7:32okay so I won't be trading tomorrow
180. 7:35the following day this day
181. 7:39I don't want to trade
182. 7:43I I probably won't trade on Thursday
183. 7:46either because look we have one red
184. 7:48folder two red folder three red folder
185. 7:50four red folder orange folder another
186. 7:54orange folder a [ __ ] red folder and
187. 7:57then an orange folder okay and and all
188. 7:59of these are for USD so if anything I'll
189. 8:03probably only be looking at like GJ
190. 8:06on Thursday
191. 8:09right because all of these are USC Pairs
192. 8:12and all the other all the trade all the
193. 8:13pairs that I trade are USC besides JPY
194. 8:19okay and again I'll look at the market
195. 8:22after 8 30 right and see how price
196. 8:25develops after all this news comes out
197. 8:27and I'll make a decision right because
198. 8:29this isn't CPI this isn't PPI this is an
199. 8:31fomc and this isn't non-farm payroll
200. 8:33however
201. 8:36this is a lot of red folders so low
202. 8:38probability d-risk see what happens in
203. 8:41the market if it makes a big move we're
204. 8:43done
205. 8:44okay on Friday this is a perfect example
206. 8:47of when I would trade and how I would
207. 8:49trade news we have news that comes out
208. 8:5230 minutes into Market open Market opens
209. 8:54at 9 30 for me boom news comes out at
210. 8:5710. what am I going to do I'm going to
211. 8:59sit on my hands [ __ ] tuck that [ __ ]
212. 9:02under my ass and I will not trade until
213. 9:0710 a.m hits
214. 9:09and I'm and I still won't trade until
215. 9:12like 10 30 hits because we need price to
216. 9:14develop and we need to see what happens
217. 9:16with consumer sentiment and even then
218. 9:19even then
219. 9:22will I be you know actively trying to
220. 9:25make a lot of money no I definitely
221. 9:27won't why because this entire week is
222. 9:30flooded with news this entire week has
223. 9:33so much news
224. 9:36okay so it's best to sit on your hands
225. 9:38don't trade in unprobable conditions be
226. 9:41patient
227. 9:43remember this is what we talked about be
228. 9:45patient look for a reason not to trade
229. 9:48not a reason to trade okay and it will
230. 9:52benefit you
231. 9:53all right so now we know what news what
232. 9:56news events to avoid and now we know
233. 9:58that we should wait if we do want want
234. 10:01to trade news or if we're looking to
235. 10:04potentially take a trade and we know
236. 10:05that there is news that day and it isn't
237. 10:07one of those four events we wait for
238. 10:10news to come out we wait to see the data
239. 10:12and we'll talk about how to read the
240. 10:14news data right now
241. 10:17um and then we wait for like you know 15
242. 10:1920 30 minutes okay let price develop
243. 10:23and then we can look to take a trade
244. 10:25cool cool
245. 10:27now let's talk about how to read news
246. 10:29data
247. 10:31so Forex factory makes this [ __ ] super
248. 10:34easy so the nice thing about this we see
249. 10:37CPI month-to-month CPI year to year core
250. 10:39CPI month to month okay as you can see
251. 10:42right here we have the forecast which is
252. 10:44what people in the news is predicting
253. 10:47right like CNN Fox News whatever this is
254. 10:49what Forex Factory is predicting the
255. 10:52news will be right this is what everyone
256. 10:54is predicting
257. 10:55right and these numbers are the actual
258. 10:58news data that ends up coming out
259. 11:01okay so when we see these numbers and
260. 11:04they're different than the forecast and
261. 11:05they're different than what people are
262. 11:06expecting we can open up this little
263. 11:09folder you just click the little folder
264. 11:10and it brings you a bunch of data okay
265. 11:13we can see where it's coming from Bureau
266. 11:15of Labor Statistics no one gives a [ __ ]
267. 11:16okay measures measures what is this
268. 11:20talking about change in the in the price
269. 11:21of goods and services purchased by
270. 11:24people so when you go to the grocery
271. 11:25store what do you buy right this is
272. 11:27pretty much what it's measuring
273. 11:29okay
274. 11:30this is the only thing that I care about
275. 11:32the usual effect right because this will
276. 11:35tell you
277. 11:37the news bias and that doesn't mean that
278. 11:39should be your buys for the day that's
279. 11:41just telling you what the news came out
280. 11:43as
281. 11:44so what was the forecast 0.2 and also
282. 11:48before the news comes out this actual
283. 11:50spot is blank okay this is because news
284. 11:52already came out right if we go and look
285. 11:54at tomorrow
286. 11:56right we see that as blank and if we
287. 11:59click on this
288. 12:00right we don't we don't know what the
289. 12:02news data is yet
290. 12:04okay but we have this one
291. 12:07so we see what is the usual effect if
292. 12:10the if
293. 12:12the actual
294. 12:14right it literally gives it to you if
295. 12:16actual
296. 12:17is greater
297. 12:19is greater than
298. 12:21the forecast
299. 12:23then it is good for the currency
300. 12:27hold on though
301. 12:29okay
302. 12:30this is where it gets tricky
303. 12:32some of you guys might you know needs to
304. 12:36take some time to understand this for me
305. 12:38it makes complete sense but some of you
306. 12:40guys might take some time
307. 12:42good for the currency what does that
308. 12:44mean does that mean good for the S P 500
309. 12:46no no
310. 12:53it does not mean good for the S P 500 is
311. 12:55the S P 500 the U.S currency
312. 12:59no
313. 13:01the S P 500 is not the currency bruh
314. 13:04what is the currency the dollar the dxy
315. 13:09and what do we know about the dxy when
316. 13:14the dxy goes up anything against the the
317. 13:17dollar goes down so gold where's gu g u
318. 13:24the s p
319. 13:25will follow down so when it's good for
320. 13:30the currency when when that means good
321. 13:33for the dollar that means bad for SPX
322. 13:37bad for gold bad for GU bad for EU bad
323. 13:42for AUD USD bad for [ __ ] anything
324. 13:46against you the US dollar
325. 13:51good for the US dollar means bad for
326. 13:54anything against it that even goes for
327. 13:57crypto
328. 13:58BTC slash USD anything XXX slash USD bad
329. 14:07SPX
330. 14:09bad
331. 14:11good for the dollar bad for SPX
332. 14:15hopefully that that gets it across
333. 14:19okay so when we see this
334. 14:22greater than forecast is good for
335. 14:24currency it was less than forecasts okay
336. 14:30all right
337. 14:32it was less than less than forecasts
338. 14:35okay we see the dxy rally bad for
339. 14:38[ __ ]
340. 14:39um we see the [ __ ] s p fall okay if
341. 14:42we go on this same [ __ ] greater than
342. 14:44forecasts good for currency
343. 14:49okay
344. 14:50cool okay and that doesn't mean that the
345. 14:54chart is going to follow
346. 14:57right because we can see we can see
347. 14:59today
348. 15:01right greater than forecast good for
349. 15:03currency it was less in the forecast but
350. 15:05what happened to dxy
351. 15:07it's [ __ ] pumping right right here
352. 15:12this candle is when the news came out
353. 15:15this is all that news did right we say
354. 15:17uh oh bad for bad for
355. 15:21um sorry bad for the currency because
356. 15:24the forecast because the forecast was
357. 15:26actually less because sorry the actual
358. 15:28was actually less than the forecast we
359. 15:30dropped down but then what did dxy do
360. 15:32rallies
361. 15:34a rally that's why we can't necessarily
362. 15:36trust news bias
363. 15:39because price action is is superior
364. 15:41that's why we have to wait for news to
365. 15:43come out
366. 15:44okay right we see that it was less than
367. 15:46forecasts
368. 15:48right so that means it would be bad for
369. 15:50the currency we see dxy right when news
370. 15:52comes out with this candle it dumps
371. 15:54right bad for currency boom false what
372. 15:57happened to the S P 500 [ __ ] rallied
373. 15:59right where where did it come out with
374. 16:01news right here look boom rallies high
375. 16:05high high
376. 16:06okay but that doesn't necessarily
377. 16:09show you guys where Market wants to go
378. 16:11for the day
379. 16:13right where did Mark where did market
380. 16:15end up going dollar ended up rallying
381. 16:18the dollar ended up eating up this news
382. 16:19drop
383. 16:21so that's why we need to wait for news
384. 16:24okay
385. 16:26so good for currency bad for the S P 500
386. 16:30okay same thing
387. 16:34with these GBP stuff okay however we
388. 16:37need to understand right understand your
389. 16:39currency pairs if it is xXx slash USD
390. 16:45right and we have something that is good
391. 16:47for the US dollar whatever that pair is
392. 16:50it will go down because it's against the
393. 16:53US dollar right so if it's the Great
394. 16:55British pound against the US dollar and
395. 16:57the US dollar benefits
396. 17:00then what does that mean that means the
397. 17:02pound against the dollar will fall
398. 17:04because the US dollar is going to be
399. 17:06stronger than the pound
400. 17:09can you get like are we comprehending
401. 17:12are we good with that
402. 17:14write that down rewind that watch it
403. 17:18again because like sometimes
404. 17:21I don't know what it is about reading
405. 17:23news but some people like I try and
406. 17:25explain this as simple as possible but
407. 17:26some people still don't understand it
408. 17:28okay so that's against the US dollar now
409. 17:31hold on this is where
410. 17:34you might start bugging out really focus
411. 17:36okay
412. 17:38what about
413. 17:41GBP slash XXX right when there's news
414. 17:47for Great British pound right look at
415. 17:49how these pairs are set up right if we
416. 17:51drag this over
417. 17:53what does this say GBP JPY that means
418. 17:55right literally Great British pound
419. 17:58against the Yen so for the news for
420. 18:03Great British pound
421. 18:04when we see okay less than forecasts is
422. 18:09good for currency we had less than
423. 18:11forecasts that means it's good for
424. 18:13currency that means if it's good for the
425. 18:16pound then anything pound against XXX
426. 18:20will go up
427. 18:25it's different than against the US
428. 18:27dollar
429. 18:29right so if we see if we have news for
430. 18:31GBP
431. 18:33right this one for example less than
432. 18:36forecasts good for currency good for the
433. 18:39Great British pound if it's the pound
434. 18:41against the dollar in the pound
435. 18:45gets good news good for that currency
436. 18:48then that pair is going to go up
437. 18:53right but if it's
438. 18:56whatever currency against the US dollar
439. 18:59right it depends on what side of the
440. 19:02parentheses uh what side of the slash it
441. 19:04is
442. 19:05right
443. 19:06pound against the dollar
444. 19:09right
445. 19:11versus
446. 19:12right yeah like pound against the dollar
447. 19:16versus like USD JPY
448. 19:20okay would be different
449. 19:22for this right because that's USD
450. 19:25against the yen
451. 19:27are we understanding that we have to
452. 19:29understand what side of the slash we are
453. 19:32on we have to we have to understand that
454. 19:34These Guys these we are literally
455. 19:35comparing two currencies it's a fraction
456. 19:42so the pound is on top USD is on the
457. 19:46bottom
458. 19:47right so if we get good news for what's
459. 19:50on top
460. 19:52that means up up if we get bad news for
461. 19:57[ __ ] that's on the bottom that means up
462. 19:59up if we get good news for what's on the
463. 20:02bottom that means down down if we get
464. 20:03bad news for what's on top that means
465. 20:05down down
466. 20:10is that making sense
467. 20:13ready we'll literally write this down
468. 21:11does that make sense
469. 21:13and then we'll do a contrasting one like
470. 21:16USC JPY
471. 21:53that makes sense
472. 21:58okay
473. 22:00so whatever is on top whatever's on top
474. 22:03it's positive correlation whatever's on
475. 22:05bottom it's just inversed okay so if
476. 22:08it's good for currency on whatever is on
477. 22:10the back end of the Slash
478. 22:12it's inverse okay so if we get good for
479. 22:14currency on the US dollar price is going
480. 22:16to go down if we get bad for currency on
481. 22:18the US dollar price is going to go up
482. 22:20versus here on uh on if USC's on the on
483. 22:24the other side if we get USC good for
484. 22:26currency price is going to go up if we
485. 22:28get USC battery Currency Price goes down
486. 22:30screenshot this put this in your notes
487. 22:32do whatever you have to do
488. 22:35that's how we find our news bias is new
489. 22:37is news bias and all be all no it just
490. 22:40helps us understand [ __ ] news data
491. 22:44okay
492. 22:46cool we got it we locked in awesome
493. 22:51that's how you read news
494. 22:53and that's how you should trade news
495. 22:55right wait for Newsday to come out if
496. 22:59it's CPI PPI fomc or NFP just call it
497. 23:02quits bro sleep in
498. 23:05live to trade another day don't lose
499. 23:07your money you're trading in
500. 23:08unprobleable conditions odds are you're
501. 23:10not profitable already so that means you
502. 23:12have a below a 50 chance to win the
503. 23:14trade in the first place because you're
504. 23:16not profitable okay
505. 23:18along with news coming out
506. 23:20gives you a lower probability of winning
507. 23:22because you don't know how to trade and
508. 23:25you have an unprobable an unprobable of
509. 23:28news event coming out into the market
510. 23:32terrible decision to trade
511. 23:35and you wonder why you guys lose money
512. 23:37in these markets
513. 23:39literally had this discussion with my
514. 23:40Discord this morning I literally had a
515. 23:42zoom call with my Discord telling them
516. 23:45literally I did a zoom call
517. 23:48I told them I was going to trade
518. 23:51and I did a zoom call just so I could
519. 23:54tell them not to trade
520. 23:57trying to save you all bread man
521. 23:59hopefully so hopefully this video helped
522. 24:01you understand news within the market
523. 24:03hopefully you guys understand how to
524. 24:05read news within the market with this
525. 24:07stuff now and hopefully you guys can set
526. 24:09up your Forex Factory and make sure you
527. 24:11guys are checking this every single
528. 24:13morning before you guys trade because
529. 24:15you don't want to get caught taking a
530. 24:17trade and the next thing you know news
531. 24:19comes out five minutes later it stops
532. 24:21you out makes you lose a bunch of money
533. 24:23cool cool with that being said you guys
534. 24:27now know how to read news and I know how
535. 24:29to find a news bias you now know what
536. 24:30news not to trade I'll catch you guys
537. 24:32tomorrow