BONUS: More Manga Pop and Value (Part 2) - One Piece TCG — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePieceOfInsight.
2. 0:03In today's video, we will be continuing
3. 0:05our discussion of manga rares, looking
4. 0:07at the rest of the sets that we didn't
5. 0:08look at in part one, understanding their
6. 0:10population, and seeing where we can find
7. 0:12value. So, this is different because
8. 0:14this is actually going to be a bonus
9. 0:15episode today. So, when I went to record
10. 0:18this episode for Monday, I ended up
11. 0:21recording too much content. So, rather
12. 0:23than forcing people to wait for another
13. 0:25video, um we're actually just going to
14. 0:27release this part as bonus content to
15. 0:29finish up the conversation about mangas
16. 0:31so that the video on Monday can really
17. 0:32focus on are mangas undervalued,
18. 0:35overvalued compared to SPs, what does
19. 0:37the data tell us about that, which is
20. 0:38something I'm really excited to share
21. 0:40with you all. So, with that, as always,
22. 0:42this is intended to be interesting and
23. 0:43informative, but not financial advice.
24. 0:52Let's first start with a very quick
25. 0:54refresher of the typical population of
26. 0:56cards in boxes. So, mangas on average
27. 0:59are the rarest with a population of
28. 1:00between 1,000 and 10,000, but you notice
29. 1:03there's a pretty wide range of possible
30. 1:04outcomes, so the specific sets and the
31. 1:06specifics of the card themselves really
32. 1:08make a huge difference to price and how
33. 1:10rare they are. You know, at 10,000, the
34. 1:12upper end of mangas could fall in any of
35. 1:14these categories, and so that's why it's
36. 1:16useful to do this analysis. We will be
37. 1:18color coding both the prices and the
38. 1:20population so that you can see uh how I
39. 1:23think they compare against one another.
40. 1:25Red is really bad, yellow is not so
41. 1:27great, blue is pretty average, light
42. 1:29green is pretty good, and dark green is
43. 1:32the best. Looking at population ranges,
44. 1:34I'm going to be categorizing them using
45. 1:36the same colors, so very small is under
46. 1:383,000, small is 3,000 to 5,000, medium
47. 1:41is 5,000 to 7.5k, and large is 7.5k to
48. 1:4512.5k. The last thing we need to know
49. 1:47before we jump into the actual cards is
50. 1:49that I'm going to be talking about the
51. 1:51relationship between raw cards and PSA
52. 1:5310s. I've done an analysis previously
53. 1:56where I looked at what I thought the
54. 1:57fair multiple of raw price to pay for a
55. 2:00PSA 10 is. And so, we're going to be
56. 2:02using the same color-coded scale to
57. 2:04identify whether or not the PSA 10 price
58. 2:07is reasonable compared to the raw price.
59. 2:09The really last caveat that I need to
60. 2:11make here is that unlike the last video
61. 2:13where I felt reasonably confident in
62. 2:15most of the estimates of the print runs,
63. 2:18these are the later sets. Not enough
64. 2:20time has passed for me to be able to use
65. 2:21graded card data or even TCG Player
66. 2:23sales to really get a good estimate of
67. 2:25how rare these sets are. So, I've made a
68. 2:28series of estimates. I'll explain what
69. 2:30those estimates are so that you can
70. 2:31judge for yourself. You should be super
71. 2:33careful with all of my estimates, but
72. 2:34[laughter] but be super double extra
73. 2:36careful uh with these because I have
74. 2:39very low confidence that these are
75. 2:40correct. Okay, first let's talk about
76. 2:42PRB02. So, PRB02 is super super weird.
77. 2:45So, for those who don't know, you have
78. 2:48sort of like the normal mangas which
79. 2:50have a pull rate of one in three, right?
80. 2:52So, if there's one manga in a set,
81. 2:53you're going to get it one out of every
82. 2:55three cases. If there's three mangas in
83. 2:57a set, typically you're going to get
84. 2:59one manga in every three cases, but
85. 3:01since there's three of them, the pull
86. 3:03rates for each manga ends up being one
87. 3:04in nine. The special mangas are a little
88. 3:06bit different. The Sanji manga in PRB02
89. 3:10is the only like normal manga that
90. 3:12there's one of in a box that has a pull
91. 3:14rate that is not one in three.
92. 3:17I'll be honest, I have not really been
93. 3:18able to nail it down. I've seen a bunch
94. 3:20of different estimates online. And so,
95. 3:21I'm making my best guess here of what
96. 3:23this population is, but this is very low
97. 3:25confidence. So, I think it is fair to
98. 3:27say that given that this is harder to
99. 3:29pull than a typical manga, that this is
100. 3:31going to be a low population manga.
101. 3:33Whether it's very low or just like
102. 3:36regular amounts of low, I'm not entirely
103. 3:38sure. So, at $2,450,
104. 3:41this is
105. 3:42more expensive than the mangas that have
106. 3:45like 5,000 plus population. And in some
107. 3:48cases, it's even more expensive than in
108. 3:50mangas that have lower population than
109. 3:51that. So, this does feel a little bit
110. 3:54high to me. You know, I think you could
111. 3:55argue that this is justified, but when I
112. 3:58see like the Shanks from OP09 having a
113. 4:01price of 1,600 and despite having a
114. 4:03population of like 3,100, which is below
115. 4:06my estimate for this, seeing this one is
116. 4:072,450 like feels a little bit high to
117. 4:10me. I don't think it's like patently
118. 4:12unreasonable because unlike Shanks who
119. 4:14has another manga, this is the only
120. 4:15Sanji manga. I do think the art on this
121. 4:17one's pretty good. So, I would put this
122. 4:20as reasonable, but like on the high end
123. 4:21of reasonable. But then, when we turn
124. 4:23this into a PSA 10, we have a multiple
125. 4:25of 2x, which I personally think is too
126. 4:28high for a manga of this price. So, you
127. 4:30know, the most recent sale for a PSA 10
128. 4:32was 4,850.
129. 4:34I do think that's too high. I would be
130. 4:36paying like a 1.5 to maybe 1.7x multiple
131. 4:39on this. So, I would hope to see the PSA
132. 4:4210 price coming down before I would
133. 4:44think it was a reasonable buy, but
134. 4:46again, like there's so much uncertainty
135. 4:47about PRB02,
136. 4:49uh it's really hard to say. The last
137. 4:51thing I'll say about PRB02 is that I
138. 4:53think people are starting to realize how
139. 4:55good this set is and how high the
140. 4:56expected value is in this set. Uh it's
141. 4:59one of the higher expected value sets uh
142. 5:01still left on the market. So, unless
143. 5:03there's like a huge spike in box prices,
144. 5:05I wouldn't be surprised if some more of
145. 5:07these get opened and that helps to sort
146. 5:09of like, you know, increase the supply
147. 5:11that's available. Next, we're going to
148. 5:13talk about the red manga. So, my
149. 5:15estimate here is that the red manga has
150. 5:17about 1,200
151. 5:19in existence. So, this would put this at
152. 5:22the rarest manga that has ever been
153. 5:25printed, right? The Gold Roger was the
154. 5:26second rarest at 1,600. So, I think it
155. 5:30is super, super fair uh to say that this
156. 5:33is an extremely rare manga
157. 5:35uh and is extremely desirable for that
158. 5:38reason.
159. 5:39Um
160. 5:40that said,
161. 5:41$20,000. Now, as I said in the last
162. 5:44video talking about the Gear 5 Luffy, it
163. 5:47is very, very difficult for me to price
164. 5:49these in any type of objective way
165. 5:51because particularly when you're dealing
166. 5:52with a small population card, it's
167. 5:54really worth whatever someone is willing
168. 5:55to pay for it. And I am not willing to
169. 5:58pay for this.
170. 5:59That said, I do have some concerns at
171. 6:01this price. Now, one argument in its
172. 6:03favor is that the Gear 5 manga is
173. 6:05$10,000 with a population of like 4,200,
174. 6:09and this has slightly more than a
175. 6:10quarter of the population of the Gear 5
176. 6:12manga, and this one is only twice as
177. 6:14expensive. So, that seems like an
178. 6:16argument in its favor.
179. 6:18But, there's a few things I really don't
180. 6:20like about it. One, it's not my favorite
181. 6:22art. That's just me personally. But, I
182. 6:25do think, and this is the most important
183. 6:26thing,
184. 6:27we're going to get rarer mangas in the
185. 6:29future. We're going to get more
186. 6:31interesting mangas in the future. I
187. 6:33think that like right now, this is like
188. 6:35the most iconic Luffy because it's the
189. 6:37rarest and because it's the newest, but
190. 6:40there is going to be a newer and there
191. 6:41is going to be a rarer, and I do think
192. 6:44that's going to hurt this card's price
193. 6:45long term. We have to understand that
194. 6:47the grails of today are going to be
195. 6:48evaluated against the grails of the
196. 6:50future. And for people who can't afford
197. 6:51to have all of them, they're going to
198. 6:52have to pick and choose. And that may
199. 6:54mean that they may sell a grail of today
200. 6:57to buy a grail of the future. So, for
201. 6:59me, that makes me inherently nervous of
202. 7:02a $20,000 price. Obviously, this is
203. 7:04going to be one of the most
204. 7:05counterfeited cards, period. And so, if
205. 7:08you're buying a raw card, you have to be
206. 7:10exceptionally careful.
207. 7:12Let's talk about the PSA 10. So, this
208. 7:14has a multiple of 2x, which I think is
209. 7:18shockingly too expensive. I think
210. 7:20$40,800
211. 7:22for this card is like way too much. Um,
212. 7:26you know, I think the $20,000 raw is too
213. 7:29much, but I think paying a 2x multiple
214. 7:31on a card that is going to cost you
215. 7:33maybe a few thousand dollars to grade
216. 7:36is way, way, way, way, way, way too
217. 7:38much. I super understand the desire or
218. 7:40to buy a raw version given all the fakes
219. 7:42out there. That makes sense to me, but I
220. 7:44wouldn't come close to this price. So,
221. 7:46this feels extremely hype driven to me.
222. 7:49And, you know, again, this isn't a
223. 7:51market I play in, so I'm not an expert.
224. 7:53I don't actually know what the market is
225. 7:55going to decide about this, but to me,
226. 7:58this feels unreasonable. So, talking
227. 8:00about the rest of the mangas from OP13,
228. 8:02we don't really know the population of
229. 8:03OP13 very well, right? Especially since
230. 8:06there were reprints. That's the other
231. 8:08caveat to the red manga, which is that
232. 8:10my estimate of 1,200 was before the
233. 8:12reprint. So, not knowing how large the
234. 8:14reprint is, obviously has the potential
235. 8:16to throw a wrench in the works here as
236. 8:18well. But, that said, because there are
237. 8:21three mangas in the set, they are
238. 8:23slightly rarer than the typical manga.
239. 8:25So, they're somewhere between like a
240. 8:27small print run to a medium print run.
241. 8:30You know, at $2,200, I do think this is
242. 8:32a worse deal than the OP09 Luffy. Both,
243. 8:35I like the OP09 art better, but also I
244. 8:37think $2,500 for a card that has like a
245. 8:40population of 3,100 is much more
246. 8:43compelling to me than 2,200 for a
247. 8:45population of like between 4 and 5,000.
248. 8:48But, you know, compared to a lot of the
249. 8:49other mangas, I don't think this is
250. 8:51ridiculous, right? It's a Luffy. It's a
251. 8:53relatively small population. You know,
252. 8:54you compare it to like the Boa or the
253. 8:56Nami, this is a significantly smaller
254. 8:57population than either of those. Uh, and
255. 9:00yet, it's about the same price. The only
256. 9:02thing I really don't like here is I
257. 9:03don't like this PSA 10 multiple. I think
258. 9:064,500 for this in a PSA 10 is too much.
259. 9:08I would not be paying 2.1x on this. I
260. 9:11think if you could get it for 1.5 to
261. 9:131.7, I think that would be reasonable,
262. 9:15but right now, I like the raw price much
263. 9:17better than the PSA 10.
264. 9:19You know, the Ace on the other hand, um,
265. 9:21I think for a relatively low population
266. 9:24manga at $1,330
267. 9:26is pretty reasonable. I'll be honest, I
268. 9:28don't love this art of Ace. I I I don't
269. 9:30really love the OP02 art of Ace, either,
270. 9:33but I think I like this one even less.
271. 9:35But, this one does have a pretty
272. 9:37favorable PSA 10 multiple of only 1.6,
273. 9:40so $2,100 for an Ace Manga in a PSA 10
274. 9:44with a relatively low population, that
275. 9:47strikes me as being pretty reasonable.
276. 9:49So, I indicated that I thought that this
277. 9:51was a four-star buy. I see the argument
278. 9:53for this being underrated at its current
279. 9:55price. I don't think it's like wildly
280. 9:57underrated, but it does seem like a
281. 9:58decent value compared to the other
282. 10:00Mangas that we've looked at. Obviously,
283. 10:02there's also the Sabo here. I couldn't
284. 10:03include it on the slide, but I think I
285. 10:05would probably say the same thing about
286. 10:06it as the Ace, which is that like it's
287. 10:08pretty cheap uh given how low the
288. 10:11population is. So, for that reason, I
289. 10:13think it's probably pretty reasonable as
290. 10:15well. So, moving on to OP-14, and this
291. 10:17is where we start to get into both like
292. 10:19really speculative about population, but
293. 10:20also like really risky in terms of
294. 10:22population. So,
295. 10:24basically, the way I did this was I
296. 10:26looked at the population for OP-11, the
297. 10:29print run, and then I took that as the
298. 10:31small estimate, and then I increased it
299. 10:33by 25% to get the upper estimate. And
300. 10:36the reason I did that is because OP-11
301. 10:38was the largest population of the sets
302. 10:42that I felt reasonably confident in, and
303. 10:44we have seen a trajectory of sets
304. 10:46getting progressively larger each time.
305. 10:48And so, I think there's reason to
306. 10:50believe that OP-14 is probably larger
307. 10:52than 11 was. OP-15 and 16 are probably
308. 10:56pretty similar to OP-14 because Bandai
309. 10:58seems to be increasing the population in
310. 11:00bunches. So, they'll have like two or
311. 11:02three sets together that are like
312. 11:03basically the same print run. There'll
313. 11:05be an anniversary set that's huge, and
314. 11:07then the one that comes after that has
315. 11:08like a larger print run than the other
316. 11:10ones. And so, that's why I think that
317. 11:12this probably had a larger print run.
318. 11:14And so, I'm putting the estimate between
319. 11:1510,000 and 12,500.
320. 11:19Either way, and even if this is less
321. 11:21than 10,000, this is an enormous
322. 11:23population for a Manga. Again, this
323. 11:24would be an enormous population for an
324. 11:26SP. And so, while I do like this Mihawk,
325. 11:29uh I I it's a pretty nice card. I think
326. 11:32it's $730.
327. 11:33It is way too expensive given this
328. 11:35population. If this was a population of
329. 11:387,000 or 8,000, I think this would be a
330. 11:41pretty reasonable price. I might even
331. 11:42think that it was a deal, but with that
332. 11:44many out there, man, this feels too
333. 11:46expensive to me. Again, I feel like this
334. 11:48needs to be like a $500 card. I don't
335. 11:50hate the PSA multiple here. Again, for a
336. 11:53relatively inexpensive card, paying 1.6x
337. 11:56is pretty decent. So, $1,200 doesn't
338. 11:58feel that bad. The Bonnie was 1,100. I
339. 12:01think the Sabo was also 1,100. I would
340. 12:05like to see this, frankly, under $1,000
341. 12:08is where I would find it to be
342. 12:09compelling, but this doesn't strike me
343. 12:10to be unreasonable. Moving on to OP15,
344. 12:13we also are making the same exact
345. 12:15assumptions about population as OP14,
346. 12:18but the difference here is that there
347. 12:19are two mangas, and so that cuts their
348. 12:21population in half. So, they go from
349. 12:22having an enormous print run to having a
350. 12:25moderate print run,
351. 12:27uh which is pretty good. So, first we
352. 12:29have the Enel. At $975, I don't think
353. 12:32it's like a bargain, but I do think it's
354. 12:34pretty reasonable. It's one of the
355. 12:35cheaper mangas in this print run size,
356. 12:38which I think is fair. I don't like the
357. 12:40PSA multiple. Again, at 2.1, $1,700 I do
358. 12:44think is too expensive for this, and I
359. 12:45think it makes a lot of sense, right?
360. 12:46Because it's a new set, not a lot has
361. 12:48been graded, you know, especially with
362. 12:50the value shutdown and how long the wait
363. 12:52times are for PSA. It makes sense that
364. 12:55people are paying a premium to get the
365. 12:56few copies that are out there, but I do
366. 12:58expect this is going to go down over
367. 13:00time.
368. 13:01The Coby is really, really interesting
369. 13:02because, you know, I've been saying that
370. 13:04I think these larger print run mangas
371. 13:07that aren't really super popular
372. 13:08characters should be in like the $500
373. 13:10range. This one already is $650, and it
374. 13:14has half the population probably of the
375. 13:17Mihawk. And so, for that reason, I
376. 13:19actually think $650 for this is pretty
377. 13:21reasonable. Um I think you could even
378. 13:23argue that it's a pretty decent deal. I
379. 13:25also do think Coby has potential, uh to
380. 13:27be more influential at the end of the
381. 13:30manga and I think that's really really
382. 13:31relevant. So, I personally see him as
383. 13:34like
384. 13:35you know, Gold Roger is to Garp as Koby
385. 13:38is to Luffy. And so, to me, like that
386. 13:41hints towards an increasing significance
387. 13:43for him as a character. The thing I
388. 13:44don't like about this Koby is exactly
389. 13:46the same as the NL, you know, a 2.2x
390. 13:48multiple for PSA 10 is too high. Same
391. 13:51rationale, right? Not many of these have
392. 13:53been graded yet. It's better to just
393. 13:54wait, you know, a while until more of
394. 13:56these come out. I think the price is
395. 13:57going to come down quite a bit, but I
396. 13:59really don't hate the price raw. Moving
397. 14:01on to OP 16, again, don't have any
398. 14:03actual information about the print run
399. 14:04for this, but I assume that it was the
400. 14:06same as 14 and 15. And because there
401. 14:09were three mangas this time instead of
402. 14:10two, um that gave us an estimated print
403. 14:13run of between 3,300 and 4,200. So,
404. 14:16we've now gone from like Mihawk where
405. 14:18there's only one and has a massive print
406. 14:20run down to three where these each have
407. 14:23a pretty low print run. The prices right
408. 14:25now are in the $1,200 range for all of
409. 14:28them. To be honest, I think this is
410. 14:30pretty reasonable. I do think they'll
411. 14:31probably eventually fall a little bit,
412. 14:34but maybe not. I mean, if NL is 975
413. 14:37and these are significantly smaller
414. 14:38print runs than NL, maybe $1,250
415. 14:42or $1,200 each does make sense. So, I
416. 14:44think these are pretty fair prices, you
417. 14:46know, I would expect there to be like
418. 14:47slight differentiation with like
419. 14:49Sakazuki being the most expensive
420. 14:51followed by Kuzan followed by Borsalino,
421. 14:53but like
422. 14:54I don't know. This feels pretty
423. 14:55reasonable, to be honest. So, that's all
424. 14:57I have for today. If you found the video
425. 14:59interesting, please give us a like. If
426. 15:00you haven't already, please subscribe.
427. 15:02You know, if you're interested in
428. 15:03picking up any of these cards, we have
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433. 15:11helpful. Obviously, no pressure though.
434. 15:13Uh and so with that, as always, I
435. 15:15appreciate your time and I will see you
436. 15:17in the next one.