BITCOIN y Bolsas Mundiales se preparan para el EVENTO DEL AÑO — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:01There are only 30 days left until the
2. 0:02event of the year, the midterm
3. 0:04elections in the United States, and
4. 0:05according to Polymarket, Donald Trump's
5. 0:07Republicans will lose control of both
6. 0:09the Senate and the House of
7. 0:10Representatives. And well, at the end
8. 0:13of the day, the market, being the fine
9. 0:15machine that discounts future
10. 0:16expectations in the present moment,
11. 0:18could start to anticipate all of this.
12. 0:20That is why this video is so important,
13. 0:22because you are going to understand
14. 0:23perfectly what the most likely behavior
15. 0:25for Bitcoin could be over the next 30
16. 0:27days. And what happens afterwards when
17. 0:30the elections pass and that buying hand
18. 0:32, poof, disappears. This is one of the
19. 0:35images we are going to work with in
20. 0:37today's video, which I have created
21. 0:39specifically for you, where we will see
22. 0:42Bitcoin's behavior 30 days before the
23. 0:442014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, as well
24. 0:47as what happens 30, 60, and 90 days
25. 0:49after. So far, the news has always been
26. 0:52sold, and the market has been in deep
27. 0:53pullbacks for an average of 30 to 90
28. 0:55days. once this event passes. Well,
29. 0:59will this time be different? Well, who
30. 1:01knows, we will see soon. But first,
31. 1:02let's answer a question, shall we? Why
32. 1:04is there interest now in keeping the
33. 1:06stock markets up? Well, let's just say
34. 1:09that most of the things Donald Trump
35. 1:10promised when he was elected president
36. 1:12of the United States two years ago, he
37. 1:14has not fulfilled. He didn't end the
38. 1:17war between Russia and Ukraine in 24
39. 1:19hours, nor did he lower housing prices,
40. 1:20or energy prices, nor has he delivered
41. 1:22that DOGE dividend, right? those $
42. 1:245,000 for every citizen from the
43. 1:26government spending cuts he was going
44. 1:28to implement. Inflation hasn't come
45. 1:30down, interest rates aren't at 0%, and
46. 1:32if that weren't enough, he has started
47. 1:34a new war in the Middle East. Anyway, a
48. 1:37disaster. That is why Donald Trump's
49. 1:39popularity rating is at all-time lows
50. 1:41and why it is likely he will lose the
51. 1:43total control he currently has. And
52. 1:46that is why one of the few things left
53. 1:48for the Republicans right now,
54. 1:49especially for Donald Trump, is to keep
55. 1:51Wall Street happy. First, to make a lot
56. 1:54of money along the way, which has been
57. 1:56inflated over these last two years, and
58. 1:58second, to say that the golden age of
59. 2:00the United States, which was one of his
60. 2:02main campaign slogans, is coming to
61. 2:04pass; although well, it is coming to
62. 2:06pass: not for the citizen, but yes for
63. 2:08the investor. And if Donald Trump loses
64. 2:10control of the House of Representatives
65. 2:12—that probability is currently around
66. 2:1494%—the legislative gridlock will be
67. 2:16almost total. The federal budget will
68. 2:19be in the hands of the opposition, the
69. 2:21ghost of impeachment will return, along
70. 2:22with a possible deluge of government
71. 2:24investigations. And if he loses control
72. 2:28of the Senate, which currently has a
73. 2:29tighter probability—but hey, 65%is
74. 2:31still very likely—the Democrats will
75. 2:33have the power to appoint judges and
76. 2:35Supreme Court justices. All
77. 2:38presidential cabinet nominees and heads
78. 2:40of federal agencies will also be in
79. 2:42Democratic hands, and no law will pass
80. 2:44without the Senate's approval, which
81. 2:46will be dominated by Democrats; in
82. 2:48other words, Donald Trump will have the
83. 2:51enemy at home. So, that market phase
84. 2:54where Donald Trump was the one calling
85. 2:56the shots would be over, and of course,
86. 2:58the markets could price that in with
87. 3:00declines as it gets confirmed based on
88. 3:02the polls that will come out in the
89. 3:04weeks and days before the election. Hey
90. 3:07, Carlos, why would it price that in
91. 3:08with declines? Well, in the end,
92. 3:10everything would move much slower, and
93. 3:11most of Donald Trump's impulsive moves
94. 3:13that have swayed the markets would have
95. 3:15to be approved by the opposition. For
96. 3:17example, the Clarity Act is one case,
97. 3:18the most recent one, and one of many.
98. 3:21It didn't pass, not because it wasn't
99. 3:22good for the United States, but because
100. 3:24you know how politics works. No matter
101. 3:27how good a law might be for the
102. 3:29citizens, sometimes, just to avoid
103. 3:31giving the opposition a win, these
104. 3:33projects end up blocked. Anyway, don't
105. 3:36miss today's video because I'm sure
106. 3:37you're going to like it. Certainly,
107. 3:39what I've prepared for you is something
108. 3:41for you to enjoy. I hope that's the
109. 3:42case when this video ends. I'll read
110. 3:44your comments. Ready. I know you are,
111. 3:46you always are. Come on, let's get to
112. 3:48it. Well, dear family, let's get down
113. 3:51to business. We are going to talk,
114. 3:54obviously, about the midterms, which is
115. 3:55the theme of this video; but I also
116. 3:57want to touch briefly on the short term
117. 3:59, because the structure Bitcoin is
118. 4:00leaving us with this blatant
119. 4:01accumulation of liquidity on the
120. 4:03downside is very interesting. If this
121. 4:06happened at the exit of a long-term
122. 4:08accumulation zone, it would make sense,
123. 4:10but at this stage, it is highly likely
124. 4:13that the asset is generating its final
125. 4:15shakeouts before attacking the lower
126. 4:17levels located at 8082, right? Once
127. 4:20we're there, we'll have to look at the
128. 4:21structure. it leaves behind. We'll talk
129. 4:23more about the short term later, right?
130. 4:24But this is all very interesting
131. 4:26because we are in a monthly structure.
132. 4:28In this case, if I look at what
133. 4:29happened, for example, in the last
134. 4:31three weeks, the largest accumulation
135. 4:33of liquidations is also on the downside
136. 4:35. And if I look at the last two months,
137. 4:37more of the same, eh? If I even go, hey
138. 4:39, don't go to Binance, go to Bybit.
139. 4:41Come on, well, more of the same. Over
140. 4:43here, hey, no, go to OKX, come on, go
141. 4:44ahead, we're seeing it right here, eh?
142. 4:46More important, the...no, go to Bitget.
143. 4:48Come on, we're seeing it here as more
144. 4:50important too, right? Go to Hyperliquid
145. 4:52. Come on, let's go to Hyperliquid,
146. 4:54more of the same, eh? Notice that the
147. 4:56most money the market makers are going
148. 4:58to make is by seeking this pullback
149. 5:00toward the lows; and, given the current
150. 5:02structure and the purge it did last
151. 5:04Friday—which I took advantage of to
152. 5:06short, we'll talk about that later—I
153. 5:09think the most likely scenario is to
154. 5:11generate the final purges now, perhaps
155. 5:13even a weekly opening to the upside,
156. 5:15before dropping to lower levels and
157. 5:17assessing some kind of structure we'll
158. 5:19discuss later. Well, that's speaking of
159. 5:21the short term, right? Now, let's raise
160. 5:23our sights a little bit more. Keep in
161. 5:26mind that our magic chart—I don't
162. 5:27know why I called it that, but well,
163. 5:29you all know it already—our magic
164. 5:31chart basically tells us: "Hey, Carlos,
165. 5:33on October 3rd, 2026, if we go back 4
166. 5:34years and look at this, but starting
167. 5:36from the current day, we're going to
168. 5:38see all of this here." Well, realize
169. 5:41that if we expand all of this a little
170. 5:43more, it tells us that Bitcoin could be
171. 5:44gaining altitude until what we were
172. 5:46talking about, the 18th, a couple of
173. 5:48weeks, right? A couple of weeks is what
174. 5:50would remain of this upward move toward
175. 5:52$ 94,000 as a peak, but if we have a
176. 5:54pullback at the start of the week from
177. 5:56here, notice that this would start from
178. 5:57lower levels and probably wouldn't
179. 5:59reach that high anymore. The theme and
180. 6:03idea of this chart is for us to
181. 6:05understand that four years ago we also
182. 6:08had the midterms around this time, and
183. 6:10the asset tried to gain some height,
184. 6:13but once the midterms arrived, we had a
185. 6:15fairly powerful drop; in this case, if
186. 6:18we had exactly the same movement as in
187. 6:21the previous cycle, the low would be at
188. 6:23levels close to 68,000–70,000 heading
189. 6:26into early November. We'll see, we'll
190. 6:29see if that's the case or if it isn't.
191. 6:31But well, this is what our magic chart
192. 6:33is evidently proposing. So it is also
193. 6:35important to point out that if we talk
194. 6:38about the year-to-date, that is, the
195. 6:41full midterm year, such as 2014, which
196. 6:43we have in green, 2018 which we have in
197. 6:46dark pink, and 2022 which we have in
198. 6:48light pink. Notice that just starting
199. 6:51from November, starting from November,
200. 6:53starting from November—well, October,
201. 6:55let's mark that there, right? Notice
202. 6:57that in October, the performance was
203. 6:59rather flat, huh? Quite flat. We had
204. 7:02drops in 2014, but if we understand
205. 7:04this drop, rebound, drop more or less,
206. 7:06the returns tend to be quite flat in
207. 7:08the month of October without much
208. 7:10upheaval. Now you will better
209. 7:12understand in terms of percentages what
210. 7:14Bitcoin's performance could be like in
211. 7:16the coming weeks ahead of the midterms
212. 7:18because of the document I am going to
213. 7:20show you next, okay? So that later,
214. 7:22heading into November and December, we
215. 7:24have this drop process that generates
216. 7:26an interesting low that will have to be
217. 7:29bought. What I see in the chart is a
218. 7:32completed five-wave structure, and if
219. 7:34we now understand the seasonality of
220. 7:35the midterms, we could be messing
221. 7:37around in these areas with corrective
222. 7:38structures so that heading into
223. 7:40November and December we get that drop.
224. 7:43We will see if it’s lower or higher,
225. 7:45we will see, which will be a buy to
226. 7:47then resume the bullish path, okay? But
227. 7:49well, it is also important to highlight
228. 7:50this, which we talk about in
229. 7:52practically every video. We are in one
230. 7:53of the longest streaks in Bitcoin's
231. 7:55entire history without a 10%correction.
232. 7:58Specifically, we have gone 98 days, and
233. 8:01we have only seen more than 100 days
234. 8:03without a 10%correction one, two, three
235. 8:06, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine
236. 8:09times since 2011. Therefore, you will
237. 8:12see, you will see if right now is a
238. 8:13good buying point or not, understanding
239. 8:15the whole perspective we have right now
240. 8:17. I, you already know what my point of
241. 8:18view is, don't you? I just exited the
242. 8:20market at 87,155. I saw this one coming
243. 8:23. I understand it could see one more
244. 8:25push to the upside, but it will be
245. 8:26marginal and I won't play that hand,
246. 8:28but rather the next correction. Even if
247. 8:30I have to buy at 80, 75, 70, or 65,
248. 8:32that is where I will enter heavily,
249. 8:35looking for a new price extension to
250. 8:37the upside, because this chart is also
251. 8:40very important to me, and what it shows
252. 8:42us is when the short-term holder, known
253. 8:45as STH, has a deviation in terms of
254. 8:47gains or losses relative to their 90-
255. 8:50day average. Meaning, here we have this
256. 8:53average of gains, okay? Gains that vary
257. 8:56, obviously, based on the behavior of
258. 8:58this operator, and when we have an
259. 8:59average of losses, we see it reflected
260. 9:01in green. Now, what we have in blue is
261. 9:05the deviation, when we have very
262. 9:06significant gains by this operator that
263. 9:08break the red band, and when we have
264. 9:10significant losses that break the green
265. 9:12band. Deduce for yourself when it is a
266. 9:16good buying point, because right now we
267. 9:18have been over 35 days above the red
268. 9:20band, and in 100%of those occasions,
269. 9:22when we have had this, there might have
270. 9:25been some additional tail end, but we
271. 9:27would already be pushing our luck
272. 9:29before a deeper correction. Look, let's
273. 9:32review them all quickly. 30 days. Come
274. 9:35on, we would find ourselves more or
275. 9:36less in this area. Yes, we could have
276. 9:38some additional peak towards, "Okay,
277. 9:40but what you're playing is a marginal
278. 9:42stretch for a major correction, which
279. 9:44we haven't had in this cycle, by the
280. 9:46way, at this stage, right?" We'll talk
281. 9:48about that later. Then, over here we
282. 9:49have another structure. Notice that
283. 9:51more or less 35 days later we were more
284. 9:54or less in the same zones, and Bitcoin
285. 9:56was missing this tail end before a 20-
286. 9:58something percent drop to then mark buy
287. 10:00, buy, and buy. Then also when we were
288. 10:04at the highs of March 2024, when we saw
289. 10:07highs for the first time before the
290. 10:09halving, when we fell back below this
291. 10:12significant 90-day gain for this
292. 10:14operator, the next buy was marked $
293. 10:1610,000 lower. And well, more of the
294. 10:19same, more of the same, more of the
295. 10:20same, more of the same, more of the
296. 10:22same, more of the same, more of the
297. 10:24same. For me, now is not a good buying
298. 10:26point, but well, I don't want to repeat
299. 10:27myself. I always say the same thing,
300. 10:29that everyone should do what they want,
301. 10:31it's hard to earn money, isn't it? And
302. 10:33it costs us a lot of sweat to be
303. 10:35putting it in the hands of someone you
304. 10:37don't know or only see on YouTube. Look
305. 10:39, here you are seeing the current price
306. 10:43of Bitcoin. Okay. Here in green, what
307. 10:45you are seeing is the average, the
308. 10:47average, the average of what would come
309. 10:49over the next 90 days. It tells us, "
310. 10:52Based on the samples we have in midterm
311. 10:54periods 30 days from the elections,
312. 10:56look, 30 days here you have the year
313. 10:582014." 30 days before the elections,
314. 11:00Bitcoin rose by 3 percent and change. A
315. 11:033 percent and change from these levels
316. 11:05would put us at 89,000, just to give
317. 11:07you an idea, dollars, clearing the
318. 11:09highs we've already seen, right? At 30
319. 11:11days. At 30 days, huh? That is to say,
320. 11:14the performance would practically be
321. 11:15flat. Um, less than 30 days, okay? Plus
322. 11:2030 days later. We would find a positive
323. 11:23performance only in 2014, but we were
324. 11:24already coming from a significant drop.
325. 11:27In the other years, both in 2018 and
326. 11:302022, 30 days before, Bitcoin's
327. 11:32performance was going to be negative on
328. 11:35average between these 3 years, taking
329. 11:38into account this positive performance
330. 11:41of 2014 of 1.2%and a median of 2%. That
331. 11:44is to say, the performance from now
332. 11:46until the midterms, statistically
333. 11:47speaking, it is true that it is a small
334. 11:49sample (it's only these 3 years that we
335. 11:51have), but well, hey, we have it; let's
336. 11:53take advantage of it, because they also
337. 11:54tend to generate similar effects on the
338. 11:56markets. Markets, the performance would
339. 11:58be rather flat, leaning towards
340. 12:00negative. You say to me, Carlos, and 30
341. 12:03days after the midterms, that is,
342. 12:05looking towards December 3rd, let's see
343. 12:07it. Looking towards December 3rd, only
344. 12:10in 2014 did we have a positive
345. 12:12performance. Both in 2018, which by the
346. 12:14way was the year in which Donald Trump
347. 12:16also lost Congress, eh, it was Donald
348. 12:18Trump's year, Bitcoin fell 45%. I see
349. 12:20it as likely at this point. It would
350. 12:22surprise me a lot, honestly, but well,
351. 12:23we'll see as we go. Eh, in the end this
352. 12:26isn't about whether we'll see new lows
353. 12:29or not, but rather, hey, could an
354. 12:31opportunity be emerging for the next 30
355. 12:33, 60, to 90 days so that in 2027 we
356. 12:35have a good first half. That is the
357. 12:38specific idea of this chart, okay? Let
358. 12:41everyone interpret it however they want
359. 12:42. Hey, in 2022 and 2018, look, the
360. 12:44performance was negative, and if we
361. 12:46look at the mean and median, it tells
362. 12:48us that performance will be negative 30
363. 12:50days after the elections, between 7 and
364. 12:5213%. At 60 days, it gets a little more
365. 12:56complicated. All performances have been
366. 12:59negative and, in this case, the mean
367. 13:01would be -20%and the median -15%, which
368. 13:04would be telling us—pay attention to
369. 13:06this—that December could be an even
370. 13:08worse month than November itself. And
371. 13:11that is where that potential scenario
372. 13:13I’m talking about comes in, of a
373. 13:15correction proportional in time and
374. 13:17price to this whole upward movement.
375. 13:19It’s not just going to keep going
376. 13:20straight up. At least, I don't think so
377. 13:22. What I believe is that after this
378. 13:25move, we need a corrective phase that
379. 13:27is proportional in time and price to
380. 13:29this other wave. And I told you the
381. 13:32same thing in a different way when we
382. 13:34were at all-time highs trading at 110,
383. 13:36115, 120. The movement was already very
384. 13:38developed, the last few dollars to the
385. 13:40upside were missing, and a correction
386. 13:41proportional in time and price to the
387. 13:43entire upward movement that started in
388. 13:44January 2023 would come. Well, here we
389. 13:46have it. This year 2026 has already
390. 13:48arrived. I’m saying the same thing
391. 13:49from another scale. Now, for the
392. 13:50structure we’ve been carrying, and
393. 13:52notice that, for example, well, at 90
394. 13:54days we’ve already skipped it, which
395. 13:56would be negative performance, right?
396. 13:58Here it also tells us a little about
397. 13:59what is projected for the $ 4,000 level
398. 14:01. We would be talking about the fact
399. 14:05that, leading up to January 2nd, we
400. 14:06would be between 74 and 65, and leading
401. 14:08up to February 1st, between 63 and 69.
402. 14:12We’ll see if that’s the case or if
403. 14:13this time is different. What is
404. 14:16undeniable is that this movement is
405. 14:17already very developed and that yes,
406. 14:19obviously, we could have some
407. 14:21additional kick, but later a bigger
408. 14:22shakeout that ends up correcting this
409. 14:24entire structure, and that's where the
410. 14:26opportunity will be. Okay, in fact, you
411. 14:29are already seeing it here: minimum
412. 14:31median, more than 60 days, $ 70,000.
413. 14:34And after more than 60 days, we would
414. 14:36find ourselves starting the year with a
415. 14:38Bitcoin close to 70,000. What do you
416. 14:40think about this? Well, here we have
417. 14:42more data, and this document is much
418. 14:44more extensive. Here we have, for
419. 14:45example, the Nasdaq, then we also have,
420. 14:47anyway, let’s stop here for today.
421. 14:49Follow me to also stay updated on all
422. 14:51these types of documents, but I want to
423. 14:52read your thoughts in the comments. Do
424. 14:54you think we've already seen the tops
425. 14:56or that we're going a little bit higher
426. 14:57? And where do you think the next low
427. 14:59will be in the correction that will
428. 15:01eventually come? At 80,000? At 85? Eh,
429. 15:04because we'll make a push to 100. At
430. 15:0670,000. Do you think we're going to see
431. 15:08new lows? I'll read your comments.
432. 15:10Moving on to the QuanFury section, this
433. 15:12Friday we had a major sweep at the New
434. 15:14York open, where Bitcoin ended up
435. 15:16practically reaching the highs of this
436. 15:18September 21st move. Right around those
437. 15:22zones, I was creating this video you
438. 15:24see on screen where I was discussing my
439. 15:26trade entry, which by the time I
440. 15:27uploaded it to YouTube and later to the
441. 15:29academy, this move had already played
442. 15:31out because it was very fast. But
443. 15:34anyway, basically what I would be
444. 15:36expecting here right now is to see a
445. 15:38five-wave structure to the downside;
446. 15:40that is, I have here 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
447. 15:44All of this could perfectly be a
448. 15:46corrective structure for wave B—that
449. 15:48is, whether this is, for example, a
450. 15:505-3-5, here I have a structure of three
451. 15:52, here I have a diagonal, and here
452. 15:54another structure of three. I have a
453. 15:57three, a three, and a 3-3. Now a move
454. 16:00in five waves should come, and this
455. 16:02could be one. All this could be two, 3,
456. 16:064, 5, and from there see this flat we
457. 16:08have on screen, which is a corrective
458. 16:11structure. Therefore, after seeing five
459. 16:15waves to the downside, I would be
460. 16:17looking for long positions in those
461. 16:19zones we mentioned previously to see a
462. 16:21bounce to who knows where, whether to
463. 16:23see new highs or simply to continue
464. 16:25with a corrective structure losing
465. 16:27height over the following weeks. Well,
466. 16:30we'll see what Bitcoin does in this
467. 16:32case. And well, how the typical weekend
468. 16:36range is behaving for now, accumulating
469. 16:37liquidity at the bottom and sweeping
470. 16:39the highs, which further supports the
471. 16:41scenario I just mentioned. Well, we'll
472. 16:43see what happens at the beginning of
473. 16:44the week. I'll leave the QuanFury QR
474. 16:46code here, which is the application I
475. 16:48use to trade the cryptocurrency market.
476. 16:50You have over 2,000 assets, and in the
477. 16:52description of this video, you have a
478. 16:5440-minute tutorial where I explain
479. 16:55exactly how to use this platform. Make
480. 16:58sure it's available in your
481. 17:00geographical location, and by funding
482. 17:01your trading account with $ 50 or more,
483. 17:03you will receive a reward of up to $
484. 17:05250 in MSTR shares. Moving on to the
485. 17:08technical analysis section, let's focus
486. 17:10more on the chart. Hey, how was Bitcoin
487. 17:1330 days before the elections in 2014,
488. 17:152018, and 2022? How is it doing now?
489. 17:18When were the lows seen? What happened
490. 17:21in the Nasdaq, for example, back in
491. 17:222018 when Donald Trump himself also
492. 17:24lost control of Congress? And notice
493. 17:28that we are going to see some
494. 17:29interesting things, but well, let's
495. 17:30take it one step at a time, as Jack the
496. 17:31Ripper said. Up here we have the year
497. 17:342014, to the right we have 2018, down
498. 17:37on the left 2022, and now the current
499. 17:40cycle. Something we could highlight at
500. 17:42this point, and it is clearly reflected
501. 17:44in the chart, is a notable change in
502. 17:46this upward movement that we haven't
503. 17:48seen in any of the previous cycles.
504. 17:51Notice that, for example, here in 2014
505. 17:53it is true that the movement was 50%,
506. 17:54but we were already carrying a
507. 17:56significant drop behind us of 80-
508. 17:57something percent, which is something
509. 17:59we haven't seen now, right? And this
510. 18:02line that you are seeing here, November
511. 18:0514th, was the election; meaning that
512. 18:07after the asset left us a low heading
513. 18:09into the first half of October, it
514. 18:11began to lose height to have a final
515. 18:13cleansing move after the elections and
516. 18:15fall by 50-something percent. It's not
517. 18:19something I would expect now. That is
518. 18:21the reality. Uh, notice, for example,
519. 18:23in 2018, a rather flat market, clearly
520. 18:25something important like the midterms
521. 18:27that could...well, and something no
522. 18:28longer important. I mean, in this chart
523. 18:31up here that you are seeing, I want you
524. 18:33to see the following. Let me see if I
525. 18:36can add the Nasdaq here, okay? There
526. 18:38you see it. Notice how in the year 2018
527. 18:42the Nasdaq itself took a significant
528. 18:44hit where Bitcoin practically didn't
529. 18:46move, while the Nasdaq fell 15%, it
530. 18:48didn't move. Yes, the final
531. 18:50capitulation dragged it down precisely
532. 18:52after the midterms, okay? But this is
533. 18:54something we will see now. Therefore,
534. 18:56we are talking about the fact that in
535. 18:58Donald Trump's last period, where he
536. 19:00also lost the midterms, we had a drop
537. 19:02in Bitcoin of 51%in the three months
538. 19:07following this event. And also, for
539. 19:10example, in the year 2022, look at how
540. 19:12we were a month before, the asset tried
541. 19:14to gain height, a cleansing move of an
542. 19:16important liquid level. This structure,
543. 19:20notice how it came to clear out all
544. 19:21these zones, accumulating liquidity on
545. 19:23the lower side to then have a
546. 19:25capitulation that, in this case, was
547. 19:26smaller compared to previous cycles.
548. 19:29What I can tell you from my point of
549. 19:31view, without having a crystal ball and
550. 19:33clearly I could be wrong, is that I
551. 19:35think if we haven't seen the high, we
552. 19:37are at the doorstep of seeing one more
553. 19:39little high. Drop, uh, look, a little
554. 19:42drop here, a little drop there, just a
555. 19:45little. Trying to wear down this
556. 19:48movement so that when the elections
557. 19:49arrive, we have a larger downward
558. 19:51movement, and that is where the buying
559. 19:53opportunity will likely be. In other
560. 19:57words, what I would be expecting now is
561. 19:59to enter a corrective phase that could
562. 20:01last from 30 to 90 days, having already
563. 20:03seen the high, or being very close to
564. 20:05seeing it. And personally, I am telling
565. 20:08you what I am seeing on the chart, not
566. 20:10what has to happen 100%, because no one
567. 20:12knows that, no one knows, and anyone
568. 20:13who tells you otherwise is lying.
569. 20:15Therefore, I am preparing myself for
570. 20:17this corrective phase. Clearly, the
571. 20:20midterms event usually generates price
572. 20:22stagnation. Look at that, right? These
573. 20:25days before, I wouldn't expect much
574. 20:27movement. In fact, you have already
575. 20:29seen it before with the statistics I
576. 20:31gave you in that metric, for after the
577. 20:33midterms, to have a downward movement
578. 20:35that I would indeed consider buying.
579. 20:37Notice the following, okay? For me, it
580. 20:39is important that we keep this in mind.
581. 20:42In fact, I'm going to split the screens
582. 20:44, and here on the right, what I'm going
583. 20:45to do is put Bitcoin. Look, so as not
584. 20:48to bother, okay? So as not to bother,
585. 20:50I'm going to put the year 2018 here.
586. 20:51Effectively, here we have it. 2018,
587. 20:54okay? I mean, look, why is this
588. 20:56important to me? Because the stock
589. 20:58markets had a significant drop with a
590. 21:00movement very similar to the current
591. 21:01one. Notice that now the Nasdaq is
592. 21:03attacking all-time highs, but it
593. 21:05doesn't quite break through. We are,
594. 21:07specifically, look, let's see if this
595. 21:10isn't Matrix, eh? Pay attention to what
596. 21:11we are talking about now. We'll see it
597. 21:13on Tuesday. Hey, if we start with an
598. 21:15upward opening, consolidation of highs
599. 21:17is a different story, but since the
600. 21:18Nasdaq has currently gone to sleep,
601. 21:20since the Nasdaq has gone to bed, uh,
602. 21:22let's see, I'm going to put the daily
603. 21:24chart here. Effectively, look, it's
604. 21:27October 2nd. October 2nd. In 2018, it
605. 21:31was specifically October 1st, that is
606. 21:34to say, one day later, clearing
607. 21:36all-time highs, just as it happened on
608. 21:39October 1st of '18. Carlos, is the
609. 21:42Nasdaq going to have a 24%drop in 84
610. 21:44days? I have no idea. I wish I knew
611. 21:47that. I'm no Nostradamus. For me, what
612. 21:50this tells me is: Hey, I see a very
613. 21:52developed move in Bitcoin. I feel
614. 21:54comfortable entering and exiting the
615. 21:55market because I have the feeling there
616. 21:57will be a great opportunity in the
617. 21:59stock markets in the next 6 months to 3
618. 22:01years; I don't know when it will arrive
619. 22:03, and when it does, I will be prepared,
620. 22:04and that is where I will jump in and
621. 22:06create my grandchildren's portfolio. I
622. 22:08always say that, right? But of course,
623. 22:10nothing is the "best," because
624. 22:11hindsight is one thing, but in the
625. 22:13present moment, with the uncertainty of
626. 22:15the future, you have to decide what to
627. 22:17do. And all scenarios have their rough
628. 22:19edges, right? It’s simply about
629. 22:21configuring what is best for you.
630. 22:23Therefore, realize that if we were
631. 22:25really talking about a similar scenario
632. 22:27in the Nasdaq—I'm going to take a
633. 22:29wild shot here, not at all saying this
634. 22:31has to happen, but it’s interesting
635. 22:33to comment on, at the very least. Hey,
636. 22:35one month before the 2018 midterm
637. 22:37elections, the Nasdaq was also clearing
638. 22:38all-time highs and couldn't manage to
639. 22:40consolidate. Let's see if next week it
640. 22:44consolidates or dips below, because if
641. 22:45it dips below and what we have is
642. 22:47something similar to what we saw in the
643. 22:49year 2000, notice that from this high
644. 22:51...Eh, and don't pay too much attention
645. 22:52to me, at the end of the day we are
646. 22:54just plotting numbers, eh, projecting,
647. 22:56let's say. This is a bar-stool analysis
648. 22:59, we could say, okay? Realize, 23%in 84
649. 23:02days more or less would leave us
650. 23:04attacking, well, yes, we would
651. 23:06effectively be closing the year flat or
652. 23:09slightly negative on the Nasdaq. These
653. 23:12types of movements will come. Next week
654. 23:15we will have a structure of a drop, a
655. 23:17rebound upward, we will fall again, we
656. 23:19will rise and capitulate, only to then,
657. 23:21if it indeed happens, head back up
658. 23:23again. For me, that is the best-case
659. 23:26scenario, and it’s the scenario where
660. 23:28I would clearly propose a powerful
661. 23:30cleansing move over the next 90 days,
662. 23:32where Bitcoin wouldn't necessarily even
663. 23:34have to see historical lows—this
664. 23:35year's lows, sorry—despite this
665. 23:37Nasdaq drop, because that’s the
666. 23:39second part I wanted to tell you about.
667. 23:43If I pull up Bitcoin right now, notice
668. 23:45that if we go back to the year 2018
669. 23:46through this whole period here, it is
670. 23:49true that, well, the asset had been
671. 23:50trading sideways for quite a long
672. 23:52period of time, huh? But notice the
673. 23:56vertical, do you see the vertical, look
674. 23:57, when it saw all-time highs, Bitcoin
675. 23:59was around these zones, eh, while the
676. 24:01Nasdaq fell practically, look, look,
677. 24:03look, look, look, look at this, look at
678. 24:05this, look at this, do you see? There
679. 24:07it fell 15%in 31 days. Do you see there
680. 24:10where the little cross for Bitcoin is?
681. 24:12You see it here. Here Bitcoin didn't
682. 24:14move. Then we had this bounce, eh,
683. 24:16while Bitcoin really didn't hold up
684. 24:18there and it fell. I'm not saying
685. 24:20we’ll have a capitulation like this,
686. 24:21far from it, but that Bitcoin could
687. 24:23actually withstand a major drop in the
688. 24:25stock markets due to the strength it is
689. 24:27demonstrating. The first impact, right?
690. 24:29That the next bounce rebounds even more
691. 24:30than the markets, and the next one is
692. 24:32where it generates the buying
693. 24:34opportunity. But we will see all this
694. 24:36week by week. I think this fractality
695. 24:39we’re touching on is super
696. 24:40interesting, especially in a period
697. 24:42where Donald Trump is going to lose
698. 24:44Congress, he’s going to lose the
699. 24:45Senate, I think the market will feel
700. 24:47all of that, just as it felt it in 2018
701. 24:49. And for now, what I see on the screen
702. 24:53is a movement where I have five waves
703. 24:55upward. Look, Carlos, rely on
704. 24:57indicators because I don’t know the
705. 24:59Elliott Wave theory. Well, look, 1 2 3
706. 25:024 5. Elliott cycles have eight waves.
707. 25:04At some point, either a corrective
708. 25:06structure will arrive, okay, where we
709. 25:11have W XY, for example, or an impulsive
710. 25:13movement 2, 3, 4, 5 will arrive, where
711. 25:15this will rebound 2, 3, 4, 5 and here
712. 25:17we will have a larger corrective
713. 25:19structure, or a final push will arrive
714. 25:21to start messing around here before
715. 25:23that drop. So, what I'm playing for is
716. 25:27an entry on a correction soon, which
717. 25:28personally is where I'll get a buying
718. 25:30opportunity, right? Now, obviously,
719. 25:33right? What do we have in terms of RSI,
720. 25:35for example, right? For those of you
721. 25:37who use this tool, it marks the
722. 25:38relative strength. We have divergences,
723. 25:41lower highs, higher highs. We see this
724. 25:44same thing in the volume too, lower
725. 25:46highs, higher highs in the asset's
726. 25:48price. And what I expect, as has been
727. 25:51happening in previous stages—for
728. 25:53example, look at this whole structure
729. 25:55here, even with Bitcoin gaining height,
730. 25:57a structure quite similar to the
731. 25:59current one—is that Bitcoin will
732. 26:01respect this bearish trend line until
733. 26:03it enters oversold territory. By when?
734. 26:05I don't know, we'll see as we go, but
735. 26:07this is something that repeats quite
736. 26:09often. A bearish trend line is
737. 26:11respected, it enters oversold territory
738. 26:13, and that is where you end up buying.
739. 26:15And down here we have the ADX, which
740. 26:17basically marks the strength of a
741. 26:19movement. Anything for me above point
742. 26:2142, the move has already exhausted
743. 26:23itself and needs to cool off. And how
744. 26:26does this move cool off? Look, for
745. 26:29example, not all the drop we saw here
746. 26:31to the lows reached point 42. Until the
747. 26:33asset got back below the ADX, below
748. 26:34point 20, this whole move didn't rest,
749. 26:36it didn't cool down; it didn't have...
750. 26:38that wasn't there. Imagine it like a
751. 26:42car where you fill the gas tank, and
752. 26:44starting from point 44, as you're
753. 26:46seeing here, 45, it goes into reserve.
754. 26:49There might be some stretch left. Yes,
755. 26:51yes, yes, but you have to go into the
756. 26:53pits, you have to get gas, and that is
757. 26:55resting the move, resting the strength,
758. 26:57because otherwise the move would be
759. 26:59eternal upward and the market moves in
760. 27:01waves. Every time that wave rests, the
761. 27:03ADX returns to the low side, right?
762. 27:06This is ultimately just a—in my early
763. 27:08stage I was also involved with
764. 27:10indicators, and when I have a scenario
765. 27:13in terms of Elliott waves, this helps
766. 27:15me confirm the main scenario by 5 or 7%
767. 27:17. This usually happens always, you can
768. 27:21go see it with other types of fractals
769. 27:22that the chart leaves us, but I hope it
770. 27:24has been quite clear what I would be
771. 27:26expecting regarding the price of
772. 27:28Bitcoin over the next 30, 60, and 90
773. 27:30days. We'll see what happens. Remember
774. 27:34that if you are still driven by
775. 27:35emotions and don't have a clear trading
776. 27:37strategy, I recommend you join IoT
777. 27:39Traders so you can learn Elliot wave
778. 27:41theory. For me, it is the best strategy
779. 27:44to have a directional bias in the
780. 27:45market across all timeframes, to be
781. 27:47able to wait for those buying zones,
782. 27:49which usually happens when everyone
783. 27:50capitulates, and sell at buying climax
784. 27:52zones, which is when everyone is buying
785. 27:54before the drop. Doing the opposite of
786. 27:56what everyone else is doing will help
787. 27:58you a lot. All the information is in
788. 28:00the description of this video and in a
789. 28:01pinned comment. I wish you an excellent
790. 28:03Sunday, I love you very much, love your
791. 28:05own, and do good without looking at who
792. 28:07you do it for. The other day there was
793. 28:09a comment that said, "Carlos, why are
794. 28:10you wearing this little cross now?" No,
795. 28:14I am going to answer you with a
796. 28:16question. If you discover or have a
797. 28:20lamp, where do you put it? On a shelf
798. 28:24to light up the room, or under the bed?
799. 28:27Well, it's the same thing. Have a happy
800. 28:28Sunday. A big hug. I love you all very
801. 28:30much. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye
802. 28:32. Bye. Bye. Bye.