BITCOIN SUNDAY UPDATE... DAILY 50 EMA — Transcript

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1. 0:00hello everybody I hope that you have a
2. 0:02nice weekend this is the Bitcoin Sunday
3. 0:05update now it's on Twitter and also on
4. 0:08YouTube
5. 0:09so we're here to analyze next week I
6. 0:12think it's going to be a very complex
7. 0:13week because we have a ton of data
8. 0:16coming in and also earning reports we
9. 0:19have on Tuesday alphabet and Microsoft
10. 0:22on Wednesday we have meta around
11. 0:24Thursday we have Amazon so if any of
12. 0:27those companies have very bad or very
13. 0:30good adding reports that can influence
14. 0:33the SMP and therefore it will influence
15. 0:36Bitcoin but right now we are here in
16. 0:38Bitcoin in the daily time frame and to
17. 0:40me this is the most important thing that
18. 0:41I can see in the chart at the moment and
19. 0:43is that we are at the moment above the
20. 0:46daily 50 EMA which should be a very
21. 0:49strong support but if it breaks below
22. 0:51like it happened here
23. 0:53here you can see it happen here here
24. 0:57here
25. 1:00if it happens again
26. 1:02then we're gonna go lower and we should
27. 1:04be testing this one because is the the
28. 1:06song where there was two previous
29. 1:08sell-offs one here
30. 1:10and one here and it hasn't been tested
31. 1:13or supported so again back below the
32. 1:1650ma and we go to 25 200. it's that
33. 1:20simple if we go through the news
34. 1:21announcements for the next week we have
35. 1:23on Monday nothing really going on but
36. 1:25from Tuesday the party starts we have on
37. 1:28Tuesday consumer confidence this is
38. 1:30basically how the consumer feels about
39. 1:32the economy their job their spendings
40. 1:35about economy in the next few months
41. 1:39um if you notice the previous date I was
42. 1:42104.2 and the forecast for this data is
43. 1:45going to be a hundred for the one
44. 1:47that's basically not different and
45. 1:49that's a problem for the Fed
46. 1:51because we've been seeing how the
47. 1:53consumers
48. 1:55are getting used to high interest rates
49. 1:57and their spending is not stopping they
50. 1:59keep spending money
51. 2:01which fuels inflation so that's going to
52. 2:04be a problem for the FED then we also
53. 2:06have the new home sales data this is
54. 2:08also very important data to see if the
55. 2:10economy is slowing down or not at the
56. 2:12moment the forecast is going to be then
57. 2:1410 000 less homes have been sold in the
58. 2:17previous month which is pretty good we
59. 2:20would like to see also this number going
60. 2:21down to see that the people cannot
61. 2:23really buy houses which is quite sad but
62. 2:25that's what the FED wants they want to
63. 2:27slow down the economy on Wednesday
64. 2:29nothing really going on Thursday we also
65. 2:32have a lot of data we have to advance
66. 2:34GDP that's basically how the economy has
67. 2:39been growing the economy is still
68. 2:40growing you can see that the forecast is
69. 2:42at two percent
70. 2:44this by the way measures quarter so this
71. 2:46is measured in the first quarter of the
72. 2:48year so it's basically telling us that
73. 2:50the previous data this is then the last
74. 2:53quarter of 2022 the economy grew at 2.6
75. 2:57percent another forecasting that the
76. 3:01economy has only grown two percent this
77. 3:03year which is obviously less than the
78. 3:05previous data but this is still quite
79. 3:07High nevertheless we are seeing how the
80. 3:10economy is slowing down a bit and then
81. 3:12on Thursday we also have the employment
82. 3:14claims this is how many people have lost
83. 3:17their jobs and I are claiming for
84. 3:19benefits okay
85. 3:21sadly the FED wants this number to go up
86. 3:24which is basically to cool down the the
87. 3:27labor market and is forecasting the 4
88. 3:30000 more Americans are asking for
89. 3:34unemployment claim benefits and then on
90. 3:38Friday we have the pce which is the
91. 3:40preferred measure of inflation for the
92. 3:43fed and they are forecasting a series of
93. 3:46three percent inflation rise basically
94. 3:49you don't want to see this number going
95. 3:50higher so if it comes higher than zero
96. 3:53to three percent that's bad news if it
97. 3:55comes lower that's good news going back
98. 3:57to the charts I've been talking about
99. 3:59another indexed all the week because it
100. 4:01might be forming two patterns okay
101. 4:03they're here there are two scenarios a w
102. 4:05pattern which would mean that the dollar
103. 4:08is going to go up on bitcoin because
104. 4:10Bitcoin 3 is against the dollar Index
105. 4:11would go down
106. 4:13and then probably reach the 25
107. 4:17000 zone or this might be just a retreat
108. 4:20before continuation okay so that would
109. 4:22look kind of like this
110. 4:24push down retrace continuation if that
111. 4:28happens then Bitcoin should Bounce from
112. 4:30the 50 daily EMA and then we would say
113. 4:34higher prices but the truth is that the
114. 4:36volatile index looks okay for now
115. 4:38because it hasn't broken its previous
116. 4:40low this one what he did here was
117. 4:43sweeping the lows which usually it's a
118. 4:45deviation and it means that when I got
119. 4:47higher but let's see how it develops if
120. 4:50it comes lower and breaks this low then
121. 4:53yes we want to expect the dxy going
122. 4:55lower and then Bitcoin going up but for
123. 4:58now
124. 4:59it hasn't broken the previous low so I
125. 5:01can't be reddish for the dxy at the
126. 5:04moment let's have a look at the
127. 5:06liquidation seat map in high block what
128. 5:08I can see here is that the nearest
129. 5:09liquidity area is a 27 000 and 26 900.
130. 5:14that together is around 35 billion
131. 5:17dollars of course Bitcoin might come
132. 5:20here at the start of the week okay then
133. 5:23if you go to the three months time frame
134. 5:25let's go there quickly we can see that
135. 5:27there is a lot more liquidity to the
136. 5:29downside that's the truth 22 000 is a
137. 5:32very interesting Zone but of course I'm
138. 5:34not going to be calling for that level
139. 5:36yet because we first have this very
140. 5:39strong Zone that's the 25
141. 5:42000 so first let's see if Bitcoin can
142. 5:45break below the 50 daily EMA if it does
143. 5:48then the target will be 25 400 and of
144. 5:51course if it breaks below that area the
145. 5:54next zone is 22 000 and what is very
146. 5:57interesting is that if we go to the six
147. 5:59months time frame
148. 6:00this is my favorite
149. 6:02time frame for the equation heat map
150. 6:05because if you notice here look
151. 6:07let me do this
152. 6:09if you notice here it was so
153. 6:11notifications here boom price was there
154. 6:13liquidation is here price goes there
155. 6:15then they're not forming some equations
156. 6:18here price goes down Sonic editions here
157. 6:20price goes up
158. 6:22again here and now it's showing a lot of
159. 6:25liquidity at the 22 500. but again we
160. 6:30still have to see how the price reacts
161. 6:33to the 25
162. 6:35200. so going back to bitcoin tell me
163. 6:38why we couldn't see something like this
164. 6:40this is obviously an scenario that I'm
165. 6:42going to keep an eye on look at this
166. 6:43potential level view pattern okay
167. 6:45first let down retrace second leg down
168. 6:49and I would say that it should sweep the
169. 6:51lows and maybe go to 27 000 or 26 900 to
170. 6:56hit all those liquidations this would be
171. 6:59Monday's false move if it happens and
172. 7:02then the rest of the week until at least
173. 7:03Wednesday evening or Thursday price
174. 7:06could come higher okay so this is one of
175. 7:10the scenarios that I'm gonna pay
176. 7:11attention to but of course the only way
177. 7:14I'm gonna trade this I'm not gonna place
178. 7:16a long order in this Zone because that
179. 7:18would mean that in the daily time frame
180. 7:21we would be below the 50th EMA so the
181. 7:26only way to play this is if we see a
182. 7:28sweep of the lows of 27
183. 7:31000 26 900 and then in that same day
184. 7:36price bounces and we are well we close
185. 7:39the candle above the 50 EMA that is
186. 7:42currently at 27
187. 7:44270. if that happens then on Tuesday
188. 7:47I'll be looking for longs until
189. 7:50Wednesday New Year session or Thursday
190. 7:52in your session because that's usually
191. 7:55when we see a reversal and this is what
192. 7:58trading is about trading is about making
193. 8:00plans and then execute them no plan no
194. 8:03execution because if you execute
195. 8:05something with no plan then the most
196. 8:07likely is that you're gonna have a bad
197. 8:09trade so I think we have a very
198. 8:11complicated week ahead the previous
199. 8:13Sunday I said that we were going to have
200. 8:16a very good week ahead and we did price
201. 8:18action has been absolutely phenomenal
202. 8:21I've made this week a lot of profit to
203. 8:24be honest and I'm very happy about it
204. 8:25but I think next week is gonna balance
205. 8:28out and I'm probably not gonna be able
206. 8:30to take that many trades but let's see
207. 8:32how it develops okay when there is a lot
208. 8:34of news announcements we also have the
209. 8:36fomc interest rate Edition in 10 days so
210. 8:39markets should be getting a tiny bit
211. 8:42more complex and more tricky there is no
212. 8:44Financial advice but in my case I'm
213. 8:47gonna be very careful with my risk
214. 8:48management my stop losses I think it's
215. 8:51going to be quite a topic week to be
216. 8:53honest with you so that's pretty much
217. 8:56everything guys thank thank you for
218. 8:57watching and I see you soon