Bitcoin’s Next Supercycle: Why a Supply Shock Could Send Prices Soaring — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00You mentioned a million-dollar Bitcoin
2. 0:01there. When do you think we get to that
3. 0:03price target?
4. 0:04>> I've said for a while that I think it'll
5. 0:06be within the next three cycles. I think
6. 0:09that um the most likely is 2037.
7. 0:13I think that this next time, obviously,
8. 0:15it depends how early we get the first
9. 0:17supply shock and start the super cycle.
10. 0:22[music]
11. 0:25Crypto markets move fast. You need
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14. 0:31analysis from the team that's tracked
15. 0:33digital assets since 2013. Head to
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20. 0:47Michael Turpin, welcome to Markets
21. 0:48Outlook.
22. 0:50>> Happy to be back.
23. 0:52>> All right, talk to me about what you're
24. 0:54watching. Um, a lot of excitement over
25. 0:57the past two weeks. Uh, what are you
26. 1:00watching in markets this morning?
27. 1:02>> Well, I'm watching the change of
28. 1:04seasons. We have definitively gone now
29. 1:06from uh the end of the bear, what I call
30. 1:08Bitcoin fall, to the very early
31. 1:11beginnings of the three-year bull
32. 1:12market, which I call Bitcoin winter.
33. 1:14It's the longest season, and it's the
34. 1:16one that people have disbelief that it's
35. 1:18actually going to start turning around,
36. 1:19but it does. And we did it just like we
37. 1:21did in early 2023 with an exclamation
38. 1:24point. And um you know if you look at
39. 1:27the what happened after FTX in the end
40. 1:28of 2022 went all the way down to 15K
41. 1:32lasted really flat for about two months
42. 1:34and then all of a sudden one day in
43. 1:35January it popped up all the way to like
44. 1:3722K. That's kind of what happened here.
45. 1:40Um to begin the uh the the move up which
46. 1:43was when uh you know Treasury Besson
47. 1:46said that they were going to start uh
48. 1:48printing money to start buying back up
49. 1:50to a trillion dollars of uh longdated
50. 1:52tea bills. And then uh you know when we
51. 1:55had uh sort of just the dynamics of
52. 1:57going above the 50we moving average that
53. 1:59was enough to kick in another uh sharp
54. 2:02rally and uh you know a billion dollars
55. 2:04of ETFs got bought. of the institutions
56. 2:06are definitely playing along this time.
57. 2:09>> With the beginning of uh bull market
58. 2:12always comes new entrance into the
59. 2:13space. I think there's a different
60. 2:15narrative driving us into the the
61. 2:18evolution I guess of crypto and the
62. 2:20evolution of finance. For folks who are
63. 2:22just starting to learn about crypto,
64. 2:25maybe making their first investment,
65. 2:27what should they know and maybe draw
66. 2:29some parallels? You you mentioned what
67. 2:31happened um around the FTX event and
68. 2:33what happened after there. just draw
69. 2:35some parallels between the last time we
70. 2:38came out of a bare market and into a
71. 2:39bull.
72. 2:40>> So my whole thesis and I've been in you
73. 2:42know Bitcoin since 2012 and really
74. 2:44heavily since 2013 was following the
75. 2:47markets and noting Satoshi actually said
76. 2:49in his early writings that as long as
77. 2:52the amount of new money coming into the
78. 2:54ecosystem between havingss um exceeds
79. 2:57the amount of inflation from uh um from
80. 3:00the having itself uh which gets lower
81. 3:02and lower every four years. the price
82. 3:04has to go up in supply and demand. Um,
83. 3:06and I noticed that what scared off other
84. 3:09traditional investors was the wild
85. 3:10volatility go up 100x and then down 85%.
86. 3:14And I noticed that that happened in
87. 3:16discrete behaviors which I call the four
88. 3:19seasons in uh my book Bitcoin Super
89. 3:22Cycle available in stores and on Amazon.
90. 3:24Um, and uh I named them after the four
91. 3:27seasons because there are four behaviors
92. 3:29that happen in the same order. Bitcoin
93. 3:31spring starts at the having and it
94. 3:33basically is when miners go from being
95. 3:35slightly profitable to having a big
96. 3:37loss, you'd think the price would crash,
97. 3:38it doesn't stays flat because for
98. 3:41everyone who's a minor and is selling,
99. 3:43which is fewer and fewer percentage of
100. 3:44uh of Bitcoin holders every time. Um,
101. 3:47you know, there's someone who's happy to
102. 3:49go and buy at the lower price, but they
103. 3:50don't buy in great quantity until you
104. 3:52get a new all-time high after the
105. 3:54having, and that's the first day of
106. 3:56Bitcoin summer. Four times out of four,
107. 3:58it goes up like a rocket ship. usually
108. 4:00stops, you know, in the middle, kind of
109. 4:02like the first phase is jettisoned and
110. 4:04then you get the second one. This last
111. 4:06time did not go up as much as people
112. 4:08were hoping or expecting, but we do have
113. 4:10the law of large numbers in effect. Um,
114. 4:12so we only went up 2x as opposed to 100x
115. 4:15after the first having. But, um, you
116. 4:17know, that will continue until we hit
117. 4:18the super cycle. So, right now we when
118. 4:21the bubble pops, that's Bitcoin fall.
119. 4:23That usually lasts about a year. And so,
120. 4:25this is the shortest one we've had. It
121. 4:26was only nine months. And then the
122. 4:28longest season is what I call Bitcoin
123. 4:30winter, which is what we just started
124. 4:31now. It's the long way back to the top.
125. 4:34But in general, it's been pretty
126. 4:36consistent in the having that if you
127. 4:37hold Bitcoin for three years and then
128. 4:39hold cash for one year, you do way
129. 4:42better than just uh holding Bitcoin
130. 4:45forever.
131. 4:45>> I think you see Bitcoin hitting $120,000
132. 4:49by this time next year. Correct me if
133. 4:51I'm wrong in the exact numbers there.
134. 4:53What's it going to take for us uh to get
135. 4:56there? there. And what are the catalysts
136. 4:57you're looking out for?
137. 4:58>> Well, we're less than 50% away, right? I
138. 5:00mean, um I think because um we had uh by
139. 5:05far the lowest uh you know uh loss.
140. 5:08We've had diminishing returns and
141. 5:10diminishing losses. The diminishing
142. 5:11returns have been pretty much on a
143. 5:13logarithmic basis 100x 30 then eight and
144. 5:16two, but the losses have been more
145. 5:17arithmetic. 85% 83% 77%. This time it
146. 5:21was like 54%. Um, so it was it was, you
147. 5:24know, people who were projecting that we
148. 5:27were going to only go down 10 or 20%
149. 5:29from from the peak just haven't been
150. 5:31following the the cycles. And so, you
151. 5:34know, the fact that we only went down
152. 5:35roughly half means that it's, you know,
153. 5:37not as high to to go up to uh get a new
154. 5:40all-time high. And I really see that
155. 5:42happening well before the havoc. I just
156. 5:44don't see any scenario where it's going
157. 5:45to take, you know, 20 months for us to
158. 5:48get back to uh 126k. So yes, I see us
159. 5:51for the second time ever having um um
160. 5:54you know passing 120k before the having
161. 5:57and I think it's going to probably
162. 5:58happen you know by like you know fourth
163. 6:00quarter of uh of next year.
164. 6:02>> Is there anything different about this
165. 6:04cycle though? You know we have the AI
166. 6:06trade now we have this in incredible
167. 6:09innovation that's moving at the speed of
168. 6:11light a lot of capital rotating into the
169. 6:14AI IPOs. just talk to me about how
170. 6:16you're looking at that and how it it
171. 6:19might make this cycle cycle different or
172. 6:20maybe it won't.
173. 6:21>> Well, it's a yes and no. Uh, every cycle
174. 6:24is different in terms of the narrative.
175. 6:25Um, particularly on the altcoin side.
176. 6:27Um, but uh it's interesting how it still
177. 6:31follows roughly the same patterns. Um,
178. 6:34and uh I'd say the big difference now is
179. 6:37uh the percentage of institution. It's
180. 6:39still nowhere near the majority. I mean,
181. 6:42early on there were, you know, pundits
182. 6:44saying, um, particularly a lot of the
183. 6:46ETF CEOs were were saying, "Oh, you
184. 6:48know, the cycles are dead. It's all up
185. 6:50from here. It's just going to be acting
186. 6:52more like gold and silver and the S&P."
187. 6:54And nah, not not really. I mean, you
188. 6:57still have the original holders, the
189. 6:59whales, etc. holding about, you know,
190. 7:02five times the amount of what the
191. 7:03institutions have. Maybe in 20 years
192. 7:05that'll be different and it's more like
193. 7:07the stock market where institutions hold
194. 7:08like 80%. Right now the institutions are
195. 7:11are less than 20% uh all in including
196. 7:14ETFs, DATs, um corporate holdings and so
197. 7:18uh even though they're more
198. 7:19sophisticated um a lot of them I mean
199. 7:22the ETFs for the most part are not
200. 7:24institutions trading for themselves.
201. 7:26They're retail buying at the advice of
202. 7:29institutions. You could say the same
203. 7:30with uh with um you know the DATs like
204. 7:33Micro Strategy.
205. 7:34>> Talk to me a little bit more about
206. 7:36Bitcoin's reaction to um the macro
207. 7:39environment. I know that you've said
208. 7:40Bitcoin is getting on this macro
209. 7:42resistant track. What does the future
210. 7:45look like for Bitcoin for you and what's
211. 7:47it going to take for Bitcoin to diverge
212. 7:49from other risk assets?
213. 7:51>> Well, I mean it typically diverges
214. 7:52during the bull market, right? So, in
215. 7:54other words, if you look at the S&P,
216. 7:56they're on a roughly a 10-year cycle. I
217. 7:59mean historically um if you look you
218. 8:01know back a hundred years you know um
219. 8:04you end up having roughly 10 year cycles
220. 8:06to the stock market that that peak at
221. 8:08the end of the decade. You had the 29
222. 8:09crash, you had the 89 crash. The 99
223. 8:13crash lasted a few more months to pop
224. 8:14the dot bubble. You had the 2009 great
225. 8:18recession right on track to the end of
226. 8:21it of that decade. And then you had you
227. 8:23know the 2020 uh COVID crash that was a
228. 8:26couple months after the end of that
229. 8:27decade. Many people have been talking
230. 8:29about the everything bubble popping in
231. 8:312029. Uh the AI bubble, it's interesting
232. 8:35that it'll be about the same time that
233. 8:36the Bitcoin uh bubble uh retreats, but
234. 8:39you know, it won't be for perhaps that
235. 8:42long. Um in other words, if we end up
236. 8:44having a lighter retreat and it's less
237. 8:46than 50% and it's less than nine months,
238. 8:49you know, that may recover quicker than
239. 8:51the stock market does. But uh one point
240. 8:53that I've been talking a little bit
241. 8:54about lately um that was just sort of an
242. 8:57observation is this the first time since
243. 9:00Satoshi wrote the white paper that we
244. 9:02have a convergence of the four-year
245. 9:04cycle presidential years and the 10ear
246. 9:07cycle of stock market behavior. So the
247. 9:09last time that we had you know both a
248. 9:11presidential election and the end of a
249. 9:14decade was pretty much 0809 and now we
250. 9:16have it in 2829.
251. 9:18>> Well tell me a little bit more about
252. 9:19that. What does that tell you about
253. 9:21where we're heading?
254. 9:23>> Well, it tells me that we're likely to
255. 9:25have a a big bubble popping event for
256. 9:28the global economy just like we have at
257. 9:30the end of most of the last, you know,
258. 9:33half a dozen decades.
259. 9:34>> Black swan event perhaps.
260. 9:36>> I don't think it's a black swan. I think
261. 9:38it's predictable. I think that the end
262. 9:39of a of a decade when you know you're o
263. 9:42overvalued in terms of like what were
264. 9:45record high um pees uh overall on the
265. 9:48S&P you've got a lot of uh you know
266. 9:52trillion dollar IPOs coming out now that
267. 9:54are sort of betting on the come at least
268. 9:56there's revenue but there's not profits
269. 9:57yet I mean the dotcoms didn't even have
270. 9:59revenue but uh you know the market is
271. 10:03ruled by fear and greed and right now
272. 10:05it's in full-on greed mode and will
273. 10:07probably be that for the next couple
274. 10:08years but uh you know it quickly turns
275. 10:10to fear and the stock market popping uh
276. 10:14will drive it. I think that gold and
277. 10:15silver will you know go up probably um
278. 10:19you against uh you know Bitcoin popping.
279. 10:21I mean that happened of course this last
280. 10:23time. Um, but uh, you know, I think that
281. 10:26it's a time for great wealth creation
282. 10:28and it's a likely that, you know, the
283. 10:30super cycle that I've talked about for a
284. 10:32while is probably more likely than not
285. 10:34to happen in 28 29 than in any prior um,
286. 10:38period. And you have to have that if
287. 10:41you're ever going to get million-dollar
288. 10:42Bitcoin because diminishing returns
289. 10:44without a super cycle, we're looking
290. 10:46when you go from 100x, 30x, 10x, 3x, the
291. 10:48next one on that sequence is 1.3. So
292. 10:51only 30% uh above the having price.
293. 10:54That's not that exciting. If the having
294. 10:56price is at, you know, 110, let's say,
295. 11:00and you know, you end up going 30% above
296. 11:02that, that's a real yawn, right? And uh
297. 11:05but on the other hand, if you end up
298. 11:07going uh, you know, into a super cycle
299. 11:10where all of a sudden you have a god
300. 11:11candle from supply shock, you know, in
301. 11:13the first um you know, uh supply shock
302. 11:18um well, the first supply shock, I
303. 11:20suppose, was in 2011 when it shot up to
304. 11:22$30, but nobody was really in it at that
305. 11:24point. The first one when you actually
306. 11:26had institutions involved was when Barry
307. 11:28Silbert started his um his uh his
308. 11:30Bitcoin trust and got about $100 million
309. 11:33invested from, you know, credit
310. 11:35investors into Bitcoin in October of
311. 11:382013. That month, you know, you started
312. 11:40with about a $100 Bitcoin and you ended
313. 11:42up with close to a thousand. So that was
314. 11:44a supply shock. I remember like Coinbase
315. 11:46was shut down like every other day and
316. 11:49they said it was scheduled maintenance,
317. 11:50but I heard rumors they just couldn't
318. 11:51find any coins to sell. And you know,
319. 11:54you had five different times in 2013
320. 11:56that you had daily candles above 30%.
321. 11:59Yeah, that's fine when it goes from 100
322. 12:01to 130. You know, I think people's minds
323. 12:04will melt if it goes from 200 to 260 in
324. 12:06a single day.
325. 12:07>> We're going to take a quick break. When
326. 12:09we come back, a new episode of Brand New
327. 12:11Rails and more with Michael. If you're
328. 12:14serious about crypto investing, you need
329. 12:16more than headlines. You need research
330. 12:18you can trust. That's the stack, the
331. 12:20blog where Gayscale's research team
332. 12:22breaks down what's actually driving
333. 12:23digital assets. From Bitcoin and
334. 12:25Ethereum to the emerging trends shaping
335. 12:27what's next. No hype, just sharp
336. 12:29analysis and insights from the team
337. 12:31that's been navigating crypto markets
338. 12:32since 2013. Visit gayscale.com/thestack
339. 12:36and subscribe today.
340. 12:38This episode is brought to you by Realy.
341. 12:41Most stable coins leave capital sitting
342. 12:43still. Reali is different. It connects
343. 12:46onchain capital to real world markets
344. 12:48like US treasuries, money market funds,
345. 12:50and private credit. Real transparency,
346. 12:53real impact, reali. Join the testnet now
347. 12:56at realalfi.co. Welcome back to markets
348. 12:59outlook. This is brand new rails, our
349. 13:00weekly look at the latest developments
350. 13:02in tokenization. It's brought to you by
351. 13:04reali. Most stable coins leave capital
352. 13:06sitting still. Reali is different. A
353. 13:08smarter stable coin backed by real world
354. 13:10assets like US treasuries, money market
355. 13:13funds, and private credit. Join the test
356. 13:15net now at realfi.co.
357. 13:17All right, tokenized stocks may be
358. 13:19getting much of the attention right now,
359. 13:21but fixed income could offer one of the
360. 13:23most practical use cases for bringing
361. 13:25traditional assets on chain. And it
362. 13:27comes down to collateral. Institutional
363. 13:29traders regularly have to post
364. 13:31collateral against their positions. And
365. 13:33as GSR managing director Andy Bear
366. 13:36points out, ideally that collateral is
367. 13:38still earning a return while it's being
368. 13:40posted. That's where tokenized
369. 13:41treasuries and money market funds come
370. 13:43in. Bearer argues they could allow
371. 13:45investors to earn a treasury-like return
372. 13:47on collateral while making it easier to
373. 13:49move that collateral more frequently.
374. 13:52Something that becomes increasingly
375. 13:53important as markets move toward 24/7
376. 13:56trading. If existing traditional
377. 13:58exchanges started to accept not only
378. 14:01stable coins but tokenized money market
379. 14:03funds or tokenized treasury funds as
380. 14:06good collateral, then all of a sudden
381. 14:08you can solve one of the most kind of
382. 14:11bigcale latencies of traditional
383. 14:13markets, which is the fact that these
384. 14:15collateral and variation margin payments
385. 14:17are are only made a couple of times a
386. 14:20day and only on weekdays. So improving
387. 14:23that would improve risk management uh
388. 14:25dramatically and it would enable really
389. 14:28clean weekend trading.
390. 14:30>> The idea is pretty straightforward. If
391. 14:32trading happens over the weekend, the
392. 14:34infrastructure supporting those trades
393. 14:35needs to keep up. Beer says that could
394. 14:37also help address what traders know as
395. 14:39weekend gap risk when major news breaks
396. 14:41while some traditional markets are
397. 14:43closed and prices have to absorb that
398. 14:45information when trading resumes. And as
399. 14:47more trading becomes automated, the case
400. 14:49for keeping the underlying collateral
401. 14:51infrastructure running becomes even
402. 14:53stronger.
403. 14:54>> You can't have trading resume or
404. 14:56continue over weekends without variation
405. 14:58margin events happening as well. So the
406. 15:02question of collateral movement uh is
407. 15:04never very far away. Um and if you can't
408. 15:08uh utilize the um the the yield
409. 15:11mechanisms over the weekend because
410. 15:13banks are closed or treasuries don't
411. 15:15trade then that sort of um you know
412. 15:18compromises that that weekend
413. 15:20collateralization
414. 15:22u event. So um you know 247 and
415. 15:26tokenization really go hand inand in
416. 15:29terms of shortening that window of
417. 15:31collateral movement and enabling lower
418. 15:34risk trading overall. And that's what
419. 15:35makes fixed income an interesting part
420. 15:37of the tokenization story. The goal
421. 15:39isn't simply to put a treasury or money
422. 15:41market fund on chain. It's to
423. 15:43potentially make those assets more
424. 15:44useful as collateral in markets that
425. 15:46increasingly operate outside traditional
426. 15:48trading hours. For bear, the opportunity
427. 15:50is ultimately about making collateral
428. 15:52movement more frequent, keeping that
429. 15:54collateral productive, and reducing risk
430. 15:56as trading moves closer to an always on
431. 15:58model. That's a wrap for this week's
432. 16:00Brand New Rails. We'll see you next week
433. 16:02as we continue to explore how blockchain
434. 16:04technology is reshaping capital markets,
435. 16:06liquidity, and investment opportunities.
436. 16:09All right, let's get back to our
437. 16:11conversation with Michael. Now, you
438. 16:12mentioned a million-dollar Bitcoin
439. 16:14there. When do you think we get to that
440. 16:16price target?
441. 16:17>> Well, I've said for a while that I think
442. 16:20it'll be within the next three cycles. I
443. 16:22think that um the most likely is 2037.
444. 16:27Um I think that this next time obviously
445. 16:30it depends how early we get the uh this
446. 16:32the first supply shock and start the
447. 16:34super cycle. Uh and in my book I talk
448. 16:36about commodity super cycles is defined
449. 16:38by the CME was when you had a period of
450. 16:40at least five years um where you had a
451. 16:44growth that was based on a a fundamental
452. 16:47change in the asset class. That happened
453. 16:49with gold in the 70s. you did forex
454. 16:51during the decade because you all of a
455. 16:53sudden relegalized uh the rights of
456. 16:56Americans to own gold for the first time
457. 16:57in 40 years. So you had new buyers and
458. 17:00then you ended up, you know, pulling uh
459. 17:02America off of the gold standard and so
460. 17:04it made it uh ostensibly more valuable.
461. 17:07Um and and the second time you had a
462. 17:09supercycle in commodities was in the 90s
463. 17:11when China was buying copper, nickel,
464. 17:14you name it, and you had a broad-based
465. 17:16commodity super cycle. Um, and you know,
466. 17:19the CME said in 23 that we might be at
467. 17:21the beginning of a new super cycle based
468. 17:23on monetary debasement. And uh, you
469. 17:26know, had I listened to what I wrote in
470. 17:28my own book, I probably would have put a
471. 17:30lot more money into gold right then and
472. 17:31there. But obviously that happened and I
473. 17:34think we're in the midst of that still.
474. 17:35But for Bitcoin, we really haven't had a
475. 17:37true five-year period where you had a
476. 17:39disruption. And I think the disruption
477. 17:40is what's been happening with gold and
478. 17:42silver, the monetary debasement, supply
479. 17:44and demand. I mean, here's a here's a
480. 17:46statistic that I say over and over again
481. 17:48that I wanted to sink into the audience,
482. 17:50and that's that we are now over 95% out
483. 17:53of mine Bitcoin. It's only 5% left.
484. 17:56That's going to take over a hundred
485. 17:57years to get that 5%. Whereas with gold,
486. 18:00you get about one and a half% new gold
487. 18:02every year. So, in 60some years, you're
488. 18:04going to double the amount of gold.
489. 18:06You're only going to have 5% more
490. 18:07Bitcoin ever. And yet we only have maybe
491. 18:10four or five percent according to the
492. 18:12statistics of the people in the world
493. 18:14who have even a dollar worth of Bitcoin.
494. 18:16You know what happens when 10% of people
495. 18:18in the world want to have some Bitcoin?
496. 18:2020%. And so you're you're you're taking
497. 18:23the S curve of adoption that happens in
498. 18:26almost all you know uh technologies that
499. 18:29go from curiosity to mainstream and
500. 18:31overlaying on an asset that basically is
501. 18:33you know out of new coins. Something has
502. 18:36to give and that's supply shock.
503. 18:38Michael, before I let you go, I mean,
504. 18:40you've been in this industry for a long
505. 18:42time. You you look at these markets
506. 18:44critically. Um, what do you think the
507. 18:47market is missing? What are we not
508. 18:49talking enough about [snorts] as we
509. 18:52watch what's happening in the markets
510. 18:53today?
511. 18:55>> I think we're not talking enough about
512. 18:57uh the fact that there's not that much
513. 18:59Bitcoin left. And you know, it's been
514. 19:01long said by many people that if every
515. 19:04millionaire just in the United States
516. 19:05woke up one day and said, "I need one
517. 19:07Bitcoin." There's not enough around.
518. 19:09There's 28 million millionaires and only
519. 19:1121 million Bitcoin and only, you know,
520. 19:13less than a million that are unmined.
521. 19:16And at any given time, maybe two to
522. 19:18three million that are available on the
523. 19:19open market. So, uh, you know, that
524. 19:22reality is going to set in. And, you
525. 19:24know, it always sets in during the bull
526. 19:26market. I mean, you can buy all the
527. 19:27Bitcoin you want in a bare market at the
528. 19:29best prices, but nobody wants it.
529. 19:31There's that, you know, faux New Yorker
530. 19:33uh cartoon that made its rounds where
531. 19:35they said Bitcoin at, you know, $15,000,
532. 19:38nobody there, Bitcoin at $60,000. It's
533. 19:41around the room. And you'll see the same
534. 19:43thing when Bitcoin's at 200,000.
535. 19:45>> Just bring it home for our audience.
536. 19:46When all of that Bitcoin is bought up,
537. 19:49the supply is bought up, what happens?
538. 19:54Well, that's roughly the year 2140. Um,
539. 19:57and you know, the miners will have to
540. 19:59live on just um the mining fees, but the
541. 20:02beauty um of the way that mining works
542. 20:05is if fewer people want to mine, the
543. 20:07difficulty goes down. And uh you know,
544. 20:09I'm I'm happy to go back to home mining
545. 20:12if that's the case. But uh I think by
546. 20:14then you're going to find that the fees
547. 20:17I mean you know I don't think Satoshi
548. 20:19thought that miners would be getting a
549. 20:21lot of their fees from ordinals and some
550. 20:23other you know kind of uh things that
551. 20:25happen on the blockchain. I mean
552. 20:27certainly in a 100 years I think you're
553. 20:29going to have uh tokenized RWAs on the
554. 20:31Bitcoin blockchain probably a lot sooner
555. 20:33than that and that'll be fees. I mean,
556. 20:35it was interesting to see that this past
557. 20:37week, uh, we've talked nothing about
558. 20:39altcoins because I think there'll be a
559. 20:40big altcoin super cycle going on at the
560. 20:42same time. Um, is that, uh, for the
561. 20:46first time more stocks were traded on
562. 20:49Salana than on the New York Stock
563. 20:51Exchange.
564. 20:52>> I've heard a lot of people say the
565. 20:54attention has moved from altcoins to
566. 20:57things like social trading, to things
567. 20:59like tokenized equities, prediction
568. 21:01markets. You said you you foresee an
569. 21:03altcoin super cycle uh coming. How are
570. 21:06you watching the altcoin market and how
571. 21:09are you watching the attention move from
572. 21:11some of the products I just mentioned
573. 21:13back and forth to altcoins?
574. 21:14>> Well, originally I wanted to just put
575. 21:16out a version two, an updated version of
576. 21:19Bitcoin super cycle in 2028 to sort of
577. 21:21like say what I got right, what I got
578. 21:22wrong, where it's going from here. But I
579. 21:25think I'm going to call it altcoin super
580. 21:26cycle because I didn't address altcoins
581. 21:28at all. And I think that I am not a
582. 21:31maxi. I'm not somebody who says that in
583. 21:33the future it'll be 100% Bitcoin and all
584. 21:36altcoins including Ethereum and Salana
585. 21:38will die. I think that you're going to
586. 21:40keep roughly the same range of 55% or so
587. 21:43Bitcoin and the rest altcoins and stable
588. 21:46coins. So if you go to million-dollar
589. 21:48Bitcoin, that's, you know, roughly 20
590. 21:50trillion dollars of assets and you even
591. 21:52have, you know, half that amount in
592. 21:55altcoins, that's 10 trillion dollars
593. 21:57versus, you know, not even a trillion
594. 21:59today. So that is a great wealth creator
595. 22:02and they're much more volatile. And you
596. 22:04have this consistent um narrative where
597. 22:08every cycle Bitcoin is the same roughly
598. 22:10in terms of like reasons to own it. Uh
599. 22:12maybe now institutions is another reason
600. 22:15but the narrative for altcoins changes
601. 22:17each time you know in in 2021 it was all
602. 22:20about DeFi NFTTS and remember the
603. 22:22metaverse and nobody really talks about
604. 22:24that anymore. Now this last time we had
605. 22:27um you know the first wave of AI tokens
606. 22:31um the first wave of RWA tokens and the
607. 22:33first wave of uh DEX tokens. I mean, you
608. 22:35know, Hyperliquid exploded and there'll
609. 22:38probably be something new um this next
610. 22:41wave. Although, right now, the ones that
611. 22:43drove the last wave of altcoins, I
612. 22:45think, still have a a long way to run.
613. 22:47Um, you know, the DEX tokens, the
614. 22:50tokenized stock. Um, you know, uh, and
615. 22:54and also, I mean, you know, memecoins
616. 22:56keep coming back in weird ways. I mean,
617. 22:58everybody thought after the Trump coin
618. 22:59and Melaniacoin and, you know, Malaycoin
619. 23:02failed that that was it for memecoins.
620. 23:04And uh you know here we go. Pepe was up
621. 23:0630% in a day just recently and Fartcoin
622. 23:09and all those other coins. Um but the
623. 23:11interesting thing that's never happened
624. 23:13before this is phenomenon that's only a
625. 23:16month old was started with this thing
626. 23:18called a memecoin for AMC stock is that
627. 23:21you go and you take tokenized stock and
628. 23:23you use that to buy a memecoin that then
629. 23:26goes and takes the money they make and
630. 23:28pumps the stock. And you know the head
631. 23:31of AMC said how is this legal? And yet
632. 23:33the SEC in the last week said we're good
633. 23:36with like tokenized uh stocks trading on
634. 23:38dexes which is which blew my mind. And
635. 23:41so I think this phenomenon both
636. 23:43tokenized stocks and also you know meme
637. 23:46coins around tokenized stocks. Um
638. 23:49there's also meme coins around um just
639. 23:53tokens like Zcash. They had something
640. 23:54called ZCAT that basically even give you
641. 23:57dividends. And I don't I don't know if
642. 23:58you're allowed to give dividends to you
643. 24:01know
644. 24:02It's it's a brave new world and so I'm
645. 24:04excited to see what happens this next
646. 24:06three years in the altcoin as well as
647. 24:08the Bitcoin uh markets. Michael, it was
648. 24:11a pleasure having you on the show.
649. 24:12Thanks so much for joining.
650. 24:14>> My pleasure.