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Bitcoin's iPhone Moment Will Trigger Wall Street FOMO — Transcript

by Anthony Pompliano · 9,622 words · 1,394 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00We are at the same point as when the
0:01iPhone came out for crypto. The change
0:03was that the iPhone came out to allow
0:06Uber. For crypto, it's obvious. It's the
0:09agents. It's plain and simple, the
0:11agents. So, the fact that to me, the
0:13ghost city analogy for Ghost Rails is
0:17about you build all this infrastructure,
0:19you build Ethereum, you build Bitcoin,
0:21you develop this whole thing, people
0:22know where it is. It needs time to
0:25survive the test of [music] time. It
0:26needs people looking at it and then it
0:28can take off. What's going on guys?
0:30Today we got a great conversation with
0:31Jordi Visser. In this conversation, we
0:33talk about what's going on with consumer
0:34AI agents. How is it affecting financial
0:36markets? Why are there certain stocks
0:38that everyone's excited about? But
0:39Jord's got some data that says that
0:41they're actually under a lot of
0:41pressure. Bitcoin broke out
0:43consolidating. Is it going to go up? Is
0:45it going to go down? Are we in a Bitcoin
0:46bull market? And where else is value
0:48going to acrew in your portfolio? What
0:50are the assets you don't own that Jordy
0:52thinks you should? All that much more in
0:54this conversation with Jordy Visser. All
0:56right, Jordy. Uh, crypto has done a very
0:58good job of hanging in there all week
1:00long, even though a number of other
1:01things have come under pressure. Why do
1:02you think crypto is trading so well?
1:04>> When did we last see each other?
1:07>> Couple days ago, a Tuesday. We We did a
1:09drive by high five.
1:10>> I walk into an event not [clears throat]
1:12knowing you're there. I thought we were
1:13friends. We do this. [laughter]
1:16>> We walk through a turn style the other
1:18way. See you. Oh, see you. How you
1:19>> The difference between you and I is you
1:21went for multiple days. See? Uh,
1:23[laughter] young Paraguan. Listen, I'm a
1:25expert at this. I took my train down to
1:27DC, did my 15-minute talk and got right
1:29back on the train and came back. You
1:30stayed.
1:31>> I stayed and had the best time. And for
1:32the people who know that I had a great
1:34time, you know who you are. I had a
1:36great time. Um, okay. So, whenever you
1:40The great thing about technical
1:41analysis, we talked a lot about the
1:44importance of the original break uh in
1:47Bitcoin from the low60s up. But what was
1:51important was the negative news that was
1:53happening in the time before. Mhm.
1:56>> Clarity goes down to close to 0%. Uh Fed
1:59rate hikes are going through the roof in
2:01terms of expectations and at the same
2:03time you have the cold wallet incident
2:05and yet Bitcoin stayed at like 60 to 65.
2:08And so the second that anything good
2:11happens. Oh, Bessant intervenes in the
2:14yen and then we get all this debasement
2:17stuff and it breaks out but it stays
2:19under the important levels of kind of
2:21the highs from the prior 6 months which
2:23were right around 82. So now we gap up
2:25again. So the question is when you're
2:27doing these in technical analysis where
2:29first you handle bad news. You go up
2:31what happened when we broke out last
2:33week? The Fed raised rates 10ear rates
2:36are going higher. Equities are you know
2:38breath is breaking down in the market
2:40and yet we still found a way to go
2:42higher again. So I believe based on the
2:46inbound traffic I'm getting from
2:49everybody. everyone but people that
2:51manage trillions of dollars. So not the
2:55analysts who work for him, the people
2:57who manage trillions of dollars
3:00asking me to talk about the paper I
3:02wrote two months ago to explain why the
3:05paper I wrote on tokenization will
3:07change the world, what that means. So I
3:09think we've entered a point where you
3:10have to realize that
3:12people are starting to ask questions
3:14about it. Part of this is because of the
3:17events that have occurred with consumer
3:19agents and things where I've connected
3:20the dots, but part of this is also what
3:23happened last year. And I think there's
3:24PTSD. People missed Micron. They missed
3:29the semiconductor trade. And so I think
3:31what's starting to happen here is they
3:34know crypto is not dead, meaning they
3:36kind of waved it off. So people that
3:38manage lots of money that need to
3:40produce alpha, this is not a greed
3:42thing. I think there's FOMO starting to
3:43set in. You think that there's FOMO
3:45coming from Wall Street on the crypto
3:47trade?
3:47>> There's no doubt in my mind. Now, I said
3:49on this show that I believe that 2027
3:51would be the important year. And the
3:53reason is this. You need to have FOMO
3:55first because we're nearing the end of
3:58the calendar year. And I'm spending a
4:00lot of time like I did in DC about
4:02machine time versus human time. Human
4:05time moves really slow. Crypto doesn't
4:08move slow. It moves very fast. AI
4:10doesn't move slow. It moves very fast.
4:12Oh, rates are going higher. or this is
4:13going to hurt the housing market. This
4:15is going to hurt small caps. I posted
4:17something on X today. So, let me get
4:18this straight. The Mag 7 are near
4:20all-time high and the Russell 2000 is
4:24breaking down, which means breath is
4:25breaking down. And if you do a chart for
4:27all of you breath fearmongers now of the
4:30market, you'll realize that, oh, QQQ
4:34over
4:35IWM has been a trade since the iPhone
4:37came into existence. If you're not part
4:40of the digital economy, you're
4:41suffering. So I think there's an element
4:44that crypto now has a fundamental use.
4:47It has public companies which means they
4:49can do a little bit of investing.
4:50They're not going into the tokens but
4:52they are looking. But I think the fact
4:54that you and I talk about all the time
4:55and we have a lot of different
4:56listeners. I write about the
4:58relationship. I set up a business based
5:00on the importance of AI to crypto
5:02disrupting macro. I think FOMO is
5:05kicking in because they're trying to
5:06figure out ways to make money because
5:07it's been kind of a frustrating year for
5:09Alpha. And I'm just going to give you
5:11one example because I can tell by people
5:13reaching out on on me on things like
5:16Visa and Mastercard. So Visa and
5:18Mastercard are your classic examples of
5:20things that oh crypto is not going to
5:22disrupt them. And I'm just like of
5:24course it will. Like I don't even know
5:26how you could argue they're going to
5:27benefit maybe initially but not in 5
5:31years.
5:32>> Why?
5:34We're entering a deflationary period
5:36that people just do not understand.
5:38Deflation, not inflation. Deflation. You
5:40and I agree on that. The deflationary
5:42pressures that come from AI are intense.
5:44It's just a matter of how long it takes
5:46for it to filter through.
5:49But where it's really going to filter
5:50through is when people are having
5:52agents, an agent's job is to find their
5:55airline ticket for the cheapest price
5:57that satisfies to book a travel thing
6:00where they're stripping out the
6:01middlemen as much as possible. Visa and
6:04Mastercard by definition are middlemen.
6:06So when people argue with me on this,
6:08they go, "Well, no, no, they you need
6:09this for this. They're going to
6:10benefit." Blah, blah, blah. I'm like,
6:11"Yeah, just like Salesforce.com, you see
6:13Salesforce.com lately, it's up big. It's
6:15down 10% this year. S&P's up 12. So it's
6:20underperformed by 22%. Semiconductors,
6:22my thematic portfolio is up 45%.
6:25Salesforce down here. Even the Mag 7,
6:28they're up 10%. They've underperformed.
6:30I think people are making a mistake on
6:32Vis and Mastercard. They're not going
6:33out of business. But at some point, you
6:35have to recognize that terminal value
6:37matters again. And crypto and
6:40tokenization are going to change the
6:43world because it unleashes a lot of them
6:46too because wealth becomes money. I
6:47wrote about that this week. It's on
6:49Substack. But on the other side, it
6:51brings an enormous amount of
6:52entrepreneurs that you can invest in
6:54because they're going to have tokens. Is
6:56it going to be this year? No. But it'll
6:57be in five years. So where Visa and
6:58Mastercard go, it's not about them going
7:00out of business. It's about in five
7:02years, will people still be paying a
7:04vig? Agents won't. Agents don't pay
7:07vigs. Agents figure out how. So people
7:09tell me consumer behavior, they know
7:11consumer behavior. I'm sorry, but you
7:14don't know agent behavior. Agent
7:16behavior is all about the goals. And the
7:17goals are find things fast and cheap.
7:20>> In the last bull market, there was a lot
7:23of institutions that they started to dip
7:26their toes. and dipping toes because
7:29they're so big felt really big to the
7:31crypto industry. So if you have, you
7:33know, hundred billion dollars of assets
7:35and you take 1%, it's a billion dollars.
7:37In the crypto world, there was almost no
7:39funds that had a billion dollars. And so
7:41[clears throat] all of a sudden
7:42quotequote smart money or the big guys
7:44show up and they're wow, they put a
7:45billion dollars.
7:46>> To them, it was like uh let's see what
7:49happens here. You know, it's a 1%
7:50allocation.
7:52I do feel like Wall Street, they're
7:54ready for the fat pitch now. They last
7:57cycle dipped their toe. They know what
7:59this thing can do when it's going in the
8:01right direction. They understand it's
8:03super volatile. They're glad they just
8:05dipped their toes and they didn't go all
8:06in cuz they saw the volatility. But your
8:09point about FOMO, it's like uh three
8:13balls, two strikes, bottom of the ninth,
8:16and you know the pitcher's going to
8:17throw a fast ball and they're just
8:19waiting. And I don't know when you
8:21probably understand better than me like
8:22what are the trigger that's going to let
8:23them you know just swing but this time
8:26it's not you know a billion it's 10 20
8:2930 billion [clears throat] per firm it's
8:32bitcoin other cryptos tokenization like
8:35now they are ready to play this whole
8:37thing and some of it is they have more
8:38options now they couldn't just go buy
8:40you know bitcoin before so they had to
8:42wait for the ETFs y
8:43>> but also how many public companies are
8:45there now that give them some degree of
8:46exposure to individual cryptos or
8:48tokenization or even you know crypto
8:51being used or blockchains being used in
8:52certain verticals like the addressable
8:55you know uh market of what they can
8:57invest in has grown so much as well that
8:59they actually can put more money to work
9:00at the same time.
9:02So, let's talk about um what you just
9:05said and and let's go a fat pitch. Let's
9:07go back to 2122 when they they stubbed
9:10their toe, okay?
9:12>> They bought at the highs, they jumped
9:14into NFTts, they jumped into FTX, they
9:17jumped into a whole bunch of things and
9:18it seemed like an obvious situation.
9:20Now, the reality is behind closed doors,
9:23the VC world was pumping an enormous
9:25amount of money into SAS businesses and
9:27into crypto. Co is just over. We're in a
9:30raging bull market. I've said this
9:32before, I'll say it again. For crypto,
9:35that was the.com bubble. Like,
9:37everyone's looking for the.com bubble in
9:39AI. That was the dot bubble for crypto.
9:41It wasn't debt, [snorts]
9:43but it was VC money that came in. Well,
9:46a lot of these rails, they don't need VC
9:48money now. So, with AI, the whole world
9:51is changing. And this is part of my
9:52thing. You don't need to hire people and
9:54you get to use digital agents and go
9:56through it. The thing that saved.com
9:59bubble companies is in 2007 there was a
10:02change that was able to use those rails.
10:05And I keep saying this over and over
10:07again. We were at the same point as when
10:09the iPhone came out for crypto. The
10:11change was that the iPhone came out to
10:14allow Uber. I'll joke about this all the
10:17time, but you can't take a laptop up and
10:19be ordering a car outside. You need
10:21Wi-Fi, cellular. You needed a smartphone
10:24to be able to have Uber work.
10:27>> Well, GPS in the phone was probably the
10:29most important part. Yeah.
10:30>> Yeah. You you you couldn't do it. So, we
10:32needed an app store.
10:34For crypto, it's obvious. It's the
10:37agents. It's plain and simple, the
10:39agents. So the fact that to me I've been
10:42talking about this for a while that the
10:44ghost city analogy for ghost rails is
10:48about you build all this infrastructure,
10:50you build Ethereum, you build Bitcoin,
10:52you develop this whole thing. People
10:54know where it is. It needs time to
10:56survive the test of time. It needs
10:58people looking at it and then it can
10:59take off. Peter Lynch wrote a book that
11:01he's still famous for which is all about
11:04oneupping Wall Street. The beauty of
11:07this is
11:10Wall Street doesn't cover tokens and
11:12crypto. They're starting to get involved
11:15in the rails, but they don't cover
11:17individual tokens. So, if you're at a
11:20big mutual fund or a big pension fund,
11:22you're like, you know what I'd really
11:23like to see? Hey, can you get me the
11:24Morgan Stanley research on on crypto
11:26tokens? Doesn't exist. So, before when
11:29you're in
11:29>> TV research exists,
11:31>> yes. Yes. I I And again,
11:32>> Mr. Research exists.
11:33>> It's live now. It's live. It went out
11:35this week. And now every week I'll be
11:37going through the vertical. So yes, that
11:38was what I planned. My business was
11:40about the fact that Peter Lynch's
11:42philosophy was the best way to make
11:44money is to be early on something, but
11:46the only way to be early on something is
11:47to know that the money is not invested
11:49in the thing that you're early on and
11:50Wall Street doesn't cover it. That was
11:52his whole theory that was one uping Wall
11:54Street. Well, that's where I believe we
11:56are in crypto. So for all the people
11:58have committed their time where they
11:59understand every token that I put in my
12:0246th name index, they already know what
12:04they are. you have a huge advantage and
12:06the money is enormous on the other side
12:09because the beauty of the crypto
12:10guardrails are the valuation is still $4
12:13trillion compared to 900 trillion of
12:15asset and all of those assets are going
12:16to be tokenized and be on chain. Is it
12:18going to happen tomorrow? No. But you
12:20don't invest in things based on today.
12:23You based on their growth. If you come
12:25up with a great idea like Starbucks and
12:27you have one store, you know how they
12:28start to really get excited when you go
12:29to two stores, three stores, four
12:31stores. It's about growth at a very low
12:33level. Everyone that screwed up the
12:35token trade. I wrote a paper on
12:37inference. We talked about Micron almost
12:39all of last year.
12:42The smartest people missed it. And they
12:44missed it because they didn't understand
12:46compute. This trade is still the same.
12:49You want to be long compute speed. You
12:52want to be long crypto speed. You want
12:54to be short everything that has
12:56friction. My presentation in DC was
12:58about being long speed, short friction.
13:00I was saying it to politicians. Ultimate
13:02friction.
13:03Why are senior people leaving Google?
13:06Why hasn't Google been able to do what
13:08Anthropic and OpenAI did? Why aren't
13:10people asking that question that the
13:11best AI models are not at companies
13:14worth with the biggest balance sheets?
13:16Anthropic went from 3 billion in
13:19revenues to where it is today. Let's say
13:2180. In the same amount of time, as I
13:23said on stage, the Clarity Act went from
13:25an idea to rejection. In the same amount
13:27of time that Anthropic went up, you want
13:29to be short friction. You want to be
13:31long speed. And we're at that point now
13:33where that is starting to play out. And
13:34I think crypto guardrails and the whole
13:36crypto system, you're going to have a
13:37lot of people knocking on your doors and
13:39this is going to be money that's coming
13:40in. The problem is they don't have
13:42access to it because these funds can't
13:44invest in
13:46these tokens at this point. That'll all
13:49change over time, but what they can
13:50invest in is Ethereum and Bitcoin and
13:53then all of the stocks that are there. I
13:56think you're going to see an evolution
13:57that's going to change next year.
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15:03This whole idea of uh the AI agents, the
15:07uh ability to use this technology, how
15:08it goes faster, etc. I think a lot of
15:10folks have focused on the intelligence
15:12for raffle reasons is, you know, is it a
15:14130, 140, 150 IQ? How do I get as much
15:17of that as possible by going long
15:19compute? Uh the more people that use the
15:21intelligence, obviously, the more
15:22productive they should become. All that
15:24kind of stuff. But one aspect I don't
15:26hear a lot of people talk about which I
15:28catch myself now I try to be very
15:29conscious of my consumer behaviors
15:32its memory is better than me now and I
15:36find myself telling various agents
15:40remind me tomorrow to do something at
15:42this time put this in your memory and
15:45don't forget it make sure that whenever
15:47you do this task you always remember to
15:49do xyz and it hit me if this thing is
15:54smarter than us and it has better memory
15:56than us. What can it not do? like you
15:59are going to just turn over all of this
16:02stuff to it and everyone wants to talk
16:04about intelligence but the memory
16:06component when you start talking about
16:08finance start talking about financial
16:09data that feels like a huge piece of
16:12this is whenever you talk to someone
16:14smart in finance what do they know they
16:15know history they could tell you
16:16different cycles they could tell you
16:18different you know a catalyst they could
16:19tell you things that triggered sell-offs
16:22all of the stuff and you're like wow
16:22this person's really smart they
16:23understand all this they are no match
16:26for the memory of a financial agent
16:29So th [clears throat] this is where we
16:31start going from the reality of the
16:33importance of enterprise agents and what
16:34we just went through the last year to
16:36consumer agents.
16:38So let's separate memory into two
16:40[clears throat] components. I ask chat
16:43GPT uh about how to fix something in my
16:47house. I ask it about some random thing
16:50that happens. Those are things I don't
16:53care about a memory of. And that's
16:55pretty much what you dominate a chatbot
16:57with with Muse and for you Instinct.
17:02I use it for everything memory wise. So
17:05like if I'm on a trip now, I can just
17:07take a photo, upload it into Muse. Don't
17:08have to say anything. I just have to go
17:10back at some point and go, "Hey, just
17:12take everything that I did on that trip,
17:14all the receipts, and put it into a uh
17:16into something for my company, for my
17:19accountant." It's there. It has the
17:21memory of everything. Hey, I booked a
17:23trip to so- and so. Can you send me the
17:25details of my trip to LA? And I just did
17:26this with it this morning. It sends me
17:29everything that I booked during the
17:31time, the meetings I have, where I'm
17:32staying, the whole thing. It asks me if
17:34it wants me to put it any place. The me
17:37the personal memory, the Jarvis, you
17:40know, from Iron Man, it exists now. And
17:43so those memories are really important,
17:45but those only come with a consumer
17:46agent where you're actually giving them
17:48access to everything. So, I don't I just
17:51don't think people have until they use a
17:54consumer agent, they don't realize what
17:55just happened. Now, to get back to your
17:57IQ point last week, [snorts] I talked
17:59about the point in situational awareness
18:03on page 71 where it goes parabolic. So
18:06when you watch your children grow up,
18:09like your kids are young,
18:12>> their IQ is not real high at this point
18:14in terms of
18:15>> I know [laughter]
18:17>> my my son still is got a hard time
18:19sometimes slowing himself down. So he
18:21just runs into the wall as the stopping
18:22point.
18:23>> And you told me he would try to be
18:24Superman. Like literally tried to be see
18:25if see if he was Superman. Okay.
18:27>> Oh, he Yeah.
18:28>> Yeah. And it didn't work. Okay.
18:29>> A nice scar on his face for a while.
18:30[laughter]
18:31>> So here here's the thing. At some point
18:35the intelligence gets to the point where
18:37the kids are really smart and they're
18:39smarter than you, but it takes
18:40>> where we're starting from. There's
18:41there's only [laughter] up to
18:43>> but no matter what it's it's a
18:45progression and it keeps going with the
18:47AI models reaching the point so much has
18:49happened in the last 3 months, two and a
18:52half months. And I'm going to say two
18:54and a half and I'm going to uh preview
18:56something that I'm going to do in my
18:57video this weekend. I [snorts] think
18:59what doesn't get talked about enough
19:00with Muse
19:03Meadow was left for dead in June and on
19:07July 2nd it he had a town hall meeting
19:11or there was a report of a town hall
19:13meeting. Do you remember this?
19:14>> Yeah.
19:14>> And and he said the progress on what we
19:18found out later it said AI and like all
19:19the media but it was really their
19:21internal work on agents was not going at
19:23the pace they expected.
19:25>> How do you go from that point to Muse in
19:29two months?
19:29>> You want me to tell you how? I'll give
19:31you tell me how and then I'll tell you
19:32the facts.
19:33>> I heard that uh he moved his desk over
19:37to the Meta AI team and he sat there and
19:41I've seen him do it before. You know, he
19:42just wore rooms, all stuff, whatever.
19:44>> How do you, if you're on that team, not
19:46figure it out when the big boss says,
19:49"Hey, this is important."
19:50>> It was from applying pressure. Okay.
19:51Yeah. What do you think?
19:53>> Well, I'm going to show exactly what
19:55happened. Now, when I say exactly, I
19:57just want to make sure people know if
19:58you haven't done this before.
20:02Ask your LLM to say, "Hey, I want to
20:05figure out how we could go from this
20:07point to this point, and I want you to
20:10go through every public
20:13announcement by any employee that worked
20:16in that group there, whether it's a in
20:18Reddit, wherever it is." And then it
20:21puts together a timeline of the changes.
20:22A week after that news story came out,
20:25there was a breakthrough. So the reason
20:28this is important is whatever caused it,
20:32they started releasing new versions of
20:35Muse
20:36>> consistently just like Anthropic does.
20:38Like you could see they were making
20:40progress cuz each one they were cuz they
20:42were under pressure. This [snorts] is
20:43the reason why with this consumer agent
20:45point with Instinct and with Meta, you
20:48don't think OpenAI is now racing to get
20:50their agent out because they don't want
20:51to lose the eyeball battle.
20:53>> So right now Meta has this advantage,
20:56but we're going to start getting
20:58consumer
20:59consumer agent releases, personal
21:01assistance from everyone now.
21:02>> And so so what does a user do? Do they
21:04adopt all of them? Do they just pick one
21:06they like? How do they navigate this uh
21:08onslaught of everyone wants them to use
21:10their agent? This is where I I'm already
21:14locked into Muse. I It's I I my own
21:17experience is unlike an LLM, I've always
21:21used Chat GPT the most except for one
21:23little window when Claude Code went
21:25through it, but then I went right back
21:26to Chat GPT
21:28and I'm still I I like Astra better than
21:32than than But then again, we had two new
21:34releases this week. Opus 5.5 is just
21:36ridiculous. Um, but Muse, it's locked in
21:39because it has all my information now
21:41and it's doing all this work. It's
21:42connected to my emails. It's doing
21:44everything I want and I'm getting used
21:45to it and it's very hard for me to see
21:47that I would change it cuz I haven't run
21:49into anything yet where it made a
21:50mistake or did something wrong. It's
21:52really, really amazing. The reason I
21:54bring it up is as you're going through
21:56this thing and you're thinking about the
21:57importance of agents, you have to get
21:59back to the situational awareness thing.
22:01We're at a point where so much
22:04incredible stuff is happening and the
22:06media focuses on oh my god there was a
22:09hacking but at the same time we're
22:11making advancements with Navier Stokes
22:13and then Anthropic comes out with
22:15something on crisper.
22:18If you go through X, you'll get 50% of
22:20biologists and people saying, "This is
22:22BS. They're just releasing this for the
22:24IPO." And then I'm going, "Well, the
22:26only one I care about is the guy who is
22:29in Code Breaker,
22:32>> who is from MIT, who's one of the two
22:35renowned people in Crisper that said,
22:37"This is amazing. This is a
22:39breakthrough." Like, you're never going
22:41to get anything where it's signal. It's
22:43always going to be noise. There's always
22:45going to be half the population says
22:46it's not there. And that's just human
22:48beings. But where is no doubt that for
22:50the next 12 months, if you want to make
22:52money, you're going to have to make it
22:54on compute and on the guard rails for
22:57these agents because how many deals did
22:59Muse do this week with Shopify,
23:00Instacart, like it's just growing.
23:02PayPal, everything is happening. So, I
23:04think this is the critical point where
23:06the IQ has reached a level where we're
23:08at recursive self-improvement and every
23:10month is going to be another month of
23:11just advancements.
23:14>> What happens when Muse gets blocked by
23:16Amazon? which I think just happened and
23:19you want to use one. It has all your
23:22information, but a very key use case for
23:26that agent gets cut off, not because
23:28they made a mistake or anything, but
23:29because a competitor is trying to
23:32introduce that friction, reduce speed.
23:34>> Mh.
23:35>> Do you then have to go and adopt
23:36Amazon's agent? Or do you think it's a
23:39world where your Muse agent will then
23:41talk to an Amazon agent and that
23:44communication would be the same thing as
23:45you as a human going to the website, but
23:47now they're just going to create their
23:48own agent and agent to agent
23:49communication. I again I I think the
23:52issue is going to come you can't stop
23:55this like I I think when um Android came
23:58out verse Apple and you're trying to
24:02figure out can you use Uber on Android
24:05eventually or could I mean I think the
24:07friction they'll try to do whatever they
24:08can I think Amazon and they're all
24:10competing but in the end I don't see how
24:12to go will instinct be allowed to use
24:15all of them I mean I I I just don't see
24:18if Amazon wants to lose business because
24:20everyone's on Muse and everyone starts
24:22using Shopify or starts using Instacart
24:25instead of Amazon, then it'll just drive
24:29markets other places. So, it's not that
24:31they're going to end these things. I
24:32think in the end, uh they've got
24:34shareholders and if they take a
24:35decision, then it's like, okay, we're
24:36going to we're going to enter our own
24:38one and because we have the Amazon
24:40world, we're going to dominate. And then
24:42you've got Apple and Apple's going to
24:44have Siri. They're all I mean, this is
24:46going to be like a growing uh agentic
24:48side. I just don't see how they can
24:50block things off because then they're
24:52choosing silos and they're limiting the
24:54ability of controlling a lot of it and I
24:57just don't see how this is going to be
24:58anything more than the initial days and
25:00how they're dealing with this. I think
25:01in the end it's just going to be divvied
25:04up.
25:05>> It's fascinating to think about Black
25:07Rockck. They came out with a paper this
25:08week talking about AI and um crypto.
25:12Thank you for listening to the podcast
25:13the last [laughter] six months. Um I I
25:16thought that it was fantastically uh
25:17written or very well done. Um
25:20>> I would say 90% of it is very similar
25:22things that you've been talking about.
25:24Uh there is 10 or 15% though in there
25:26that I think they kind of have different
25:27viewpoints and some of it maybe because
25:29they're coming from more of a financial
25:30mindset and a traditional finance. Um
25:32but what I think people look back on the
25:35Bitcoin ETFs, the ETF was important, but
25:38the ETF really only happened once Uncle
25:41Larry said, "I'm ready to do an ETF."
25:43And then somehow it all got approved.
25:46>> Black Rockck writing the paper, there's
25:48a lot of papers that have been written
25:49about Bitcoin or crypto and AI.
25:51>> Y,
25:52>> but Black Rockck writing it again kind
25:54of is like, oh, okay, the adults in the
25:56room also agree now. Now it is for real.
25:59It feels like a contrarian viewpoint
26:01that just literally with the release of
26:03one paper goes from contrarian to
26:05consensus. Do you agree?
26:07>> Um, yeah. I think there was a targeted
26:09reason for the release though too based
26:11on the fact that in the same week they
26:12also put three funds on chain. So
26:16>> Oh, they have an agenda.
26:18>> Yeah. Well, yeah, an agenda is the
26:20right. They have a business and I think
26:21they're selling what they're doing and
26:23they're ahead of
26:24>> the banks. Yeah.
26:25>> So, uh they're trying to stay ahead on
26:28this just like Amazon's trying to not
26:30fall behind to Meta and Open AI. I mean,
26:33at the end of the day, the speed of
26:34change is going so rapidly and inside
26:37these walls, you have a lot to lose. So,
26:39on the flip side, when whenever I use
26:41Michael Sailor's line of [snorts] you
26:44don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you,
26:45which is a reference to the fact that
26:47until you actually need Bitcoin, you're
26:49not going to care. I think the same
26:52thing happens with AI. I think every
26:54time something happens in artificial
26:56intelligence, there's a fear of the SAS
26:58apocalypse in in in your name or
27:00whatever. And we see this time and time
27:01again where something will fall 30, 40,
27:0350%. A lot of the software names have
27:05not come back. And like I said with
27:07Salesforce, Salesforce has bounced, but
27:09it's still down 10% year-to- date and
27:11it's down 15% over the last 5 years. Um,
27:14is that good? That's that's not
27:16something you want to invest in. Um, and
27:19again, Bitcoin is down significantly
27:21from the highs. So, you can make the
27:22argument if you just pick this cherry
27:24pick this this point of time. Um, I I I
27:27think this is going to be a
27:28disruptionfilled point and I think
27:30everyone's trying to get the jump on
27:31anyone. BlackRock has a huge advantage
27:33as some place that people trust from a
27:37asset manager perspective that has
27:39already made this big commitment to
27:43crypto, but they don't. I mean,
27:45Fidelity's there, Franklin Templeton's
27:47there. It's not like they're the only
27:49ones. Uh I think the entire side is
27:51trying to drive the Morgan Stanley's,
27:54the Bank Americans, the Goldman Sachs to
27:55make sure that they're focused on it and
27:57they didn't really get focused on it
27:58honestly until what the last year maybe
28:00the last it's been this year that they
28:03were kind of forced into it. So there is
28:05a fear of missing out and that's the
28:07other part of the FOMO when you really
28:08look and you don't think about the
28:10charts or you don't think about anything
28:11like what's happened this year in
28:13crypto.
28:16A lot's gone on. I know people don't
28:18like the word crypto. It's amazing to
28:19me. I like I like provoking uh anger in
28:22people. They were digital assets.
28:25I was talking to someone yesterday who
28:27you had on who you connected us with who
28:29I brought up NFTTS like what's a bad
28:31word. Yeah, I get it. What do you want
28:33to call it? I was like digital assets.
28:35Everything's a digital asset now. It's
28:36acceptable. So, I think the whole
28:38industry is in a chase mode and I just
28:39think Black Rockck has the biggest
28:41audience and the easiest time to do this
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30:34[music] Go check them out today. Last
30:36week we talked a lot about the agents
30:38and uh a number of things that now I
30:40think are moving rapidly in a matter of
30:42weeks from contrarian to consensus. Uh
30:45on Monday, Meta gapped up almost 15% or
30:49so. Uh I don't know if we get a pat on
30:51the back. Maybe we get like a little
30:52golf clap, right? Um what is your
30:55thought process on like okay, we know
30:57the consumer agents are going to become
30:58a thing. People are already adopting
31:00them. You and I are adopting them. We're
31:02using them very aggressively. What does
31:03that mean for the companies? Black
31:06Rockck's talking about this. Meta's
31:07building this. Like, do all of these
31:09companies actually see it flow through
31:11to performance and ultimately higher
31:13stock prices, or is there maybe a period
31:15of time where there's tons of adoption,
31:18but stock prices don't really reflect
31:20that until they can show that they can
31:21actually monetize these services?
31:24I think the market on Monday uh set a
31:29very similar framework to what happened
31:31with semiconductors saying oh my god the
31:34agent world started today how do we make
31:36money off agents
31:39I think the disappointment will come and
31:42again how you measure the monetary
31:45benefits to Meta well now they get the
31:47benefit of the doubt because they have
31:48this growth engine so if you can find
31:50anything positive in there it offsets
31:53the debt that they've been taking the
31:55fact that the Mag 7 broke to all-time
31:57highs on the same day. And last week I
31:59did talk about the fact and I did on my
32:01my my weekend show that the Mag 7 all
32:04benefit from the agentic side in some
32:07way. I mean Amazon has Alexa, Apple has
32:10Siri, Google has Gemini. Like they're
32:13all ways that you're going to benefit on
32:14this by having a personal assistant. I
32:16mean for Muse, imagine if Google said,
32:18"I'm not you can't access my
32:21my account." I I it would it would be
32:23very very difficult to to go through.
32:25Now Muse can absolutely help me with
32:28Amazon because they just sign in under
32:30my name and go through it. And that's
32:31the beauty of like, well, how do you
32:32know it's not me? You can't buy things
32:34then. Okay, great. But can you do the
32:36research and tell me what I should look
32:37for and go through it? That is one of
32:38the powers of Muse, by the way. people
32:40haven't used it. If you're taking a trip
32:43and you want to go find restaurants in a
32:45city, one of the things I hate the most
32:48about the way search works is when you
32:50type that in, you get whatever papers
32:53and advertisers have been paid to do
32:55that. When you use Muse, you you you
32:57>> get the answer.
32:57>> You get the answer. Um, so I I think the
33:00the marketing
33:01>> You're saying Muse is a filter?
33:03>> Uh, to a to a degree. That's it's it's
33:05it's really hurting. I I don't
33:07understand still the advertising side.
33:09So I don't understand this whole thing
33:10of people being excited about ads
33:12personally. I just
33:13>> ads in inmuse
33:16>> like anything regarding ads. When I hear
33:18consumer agents
33:21I I'm thinking that agents will be
33:23making decisions with no preferences. I
33:26don't know why people don't understand
33:27this. Like human beings
33:30McDonald's putting a a photo of a
33:32burger. No offense to anyone listening
33:34from McDonald's but I don't eat
33:36McDonald's. And so when I see a photo I
33:39know and they try to make it look good.
33:40>> It's best restaurant in America.
33:43>> It definitely controls a lot of the food
33:45supply in the country. Um
33:47>> based
33:49what is an AI agent going to make
33:50decisions on? They're going to make them
33:52based on price, reviews, all of these
33:54different things, but it's not going to
33:55be based on advertising. So maybe that's
33:57not today, but eventually it is. So when
33:59I hear people talk about consumer
34:00behavior, I think the agent side is
34:02still going to be compute. So for
34:04everyone who's like worried about
34:06semiconductors and stuff, watch this
34:09Sunday when I show you where we are. The
34:13compute needs just went up
34:14exponentially.
34:16Remember Meta has built a huge data
34:19center in in in Louisiana. Why?
34:23They're not selling the compute.
34:25Remember that was the story back in
34:26June. Also, they didn't sell any.
34:28They're not doing what they actually
34:30have a need for it. Why do they have a
34:31need for it? because of their consumer
34:33agents and at some point this week there
34:35was a weight list where you couldn't get
34:36on just like it was for Instinct. So I
34:38think consumer agents is going to lead
34:39to enormous amount of compute. I do
34:40think there'll be a buzz trade for MAG 7
34:43and things like that. I don't think
34:44they're going to outperform the S&P. I
34:46think they'll [snorts] outperform small
34:47caps as people get panicked because of
34:49rates and because of oil. But in the end
34:51I do think that you can make money off
34:52this. But I think the place where you
34:53want to go and what are the agents
34:55using? They're using crypto. What do
34:57they need? They need compute. Those are
34:59the trades. Are you telling me that
35:02there's going to be zero ability to
35:04create like a cute agent that can flirt
35:06with somebody else's agent to get a
35:08sale? That's not going to be a thing.
35:09>> It's not going to be a thing.
35:10>> All right. Well, there's some businesses
35:11that going to be in trouble there. Um,
35:14when you think through everything that's
35:16happening in the product side, one
35:19aspect that I think people are starting
35:21to almost forget about is there's a huge
35:23technical side to this. And Mused, I
35:26think the beauty of it is like you have
35:28no clue what model they're using. You
35:29have no clue how much to compute costs.
35:33You don't know a token. The average
35:35person's never even heard that term,
35:36right? All they know is there's a piece
35:38of software that is a product. I tell it
35:41to do something, it does it. It's magic.
35:43>> On the technical side, uh, recently
35:45Doresh sat down with Nome Brown and, uh,
35:48it was pretty interesting conversation.
35:49What were your main takeaways?
35:52Uh I
35:55lately my AI listening on podcast has
35:59gone down.
36:00>> Okay. Interesting.
36:01>> And the reason is
36:03someone who we both know asked me this
36:05yesterday because uh they're at the
36:07moonshots uh event and I sat back and I
36:13said here's the deal. When things are
36:16changing so fast,
36:19it's almost useless to listen to what
36:21happened in the prior week because the
36:23next week there's a whole new thing. So
36:26unless it's something that's like
36:27earthshattering like Opus 5.5 releasing
36:31doesn't change anything. Chat GPT6 and
36:34Soul Luna doesn't change anything.
36:36>> I literally don't even think most people
36:38>> care anymore when these new things
36:40unless it is a huge step function
36:42change.
36:42>> Exactly. the iterative nobody
36:44>> it does it it doesn't matter and Astra I
36:46said it to people I I'm not going to
36:48care anymore this thing is so good that
36:51it does everything that I needed to do
36:53which wasn't the case before and so the
36:55time between them so that's the reason
36:57>> one aspect of this I think is very
36:58interesting is when we look at uh
37:01measurements inside of Sylvia and we're
37:04measuring let's say uh accuracy or uh
37:06efficacy on certain benchmarks
37:10we continue to talk internally without
37:12an
37:13Let's say that Opus scores 88 and the
37:17Sylvia model scores 91 and let's say
37:22maybe chat GBT whatever version scores
37:2486.
37:26Can a human tell the difference between
37:2886 88 and 91? Probably not.
37:31>> Yeah.
37:33>> Can a human tell the difference between
37:3540 and 90? Absolutely.
37:37>> Yeah. But one of the questions is like
37:39what is the the band of the human eye
37:42cannot you know identify the difference
37:44and I think that what you're talking
37:45about in these new model releases
37:47they're within the band of to the user
37:49it's the same thing.
37:50>> Y
37:50>> and what you need is you need these
37:51breakouts people only care when it is
37:54obvious to them.
37:55>> So before I I I go through what I am
37:57listening to and and why this has
38:00changed and the nome brown situation.
38:02So, there was one that came out this
38:03week, a benchmark that um Astra I think
38:06got 100% and and and
38:09Fable got 45.
38:11>> Oo. This was a driving benchmark. So, it
38:15was a driving from what I saw
38:17simulation.
38:18>> Okay.
38:18>> And so, they had to learn
38:20>> a fake test for a fake action
38:21>> of course. Yeah. and they had to do it
38:24and Astra ended up being able to do it
38:26on like the second try and I'm not sure
38:29that uh Fable finished the course. The
38:32reason I bring that up is not to say
38:34well this one's better than this. It's
38:35to say that we're getting into the point
38:37now where humanoids robotics full
38:39self-driving become something important.
38:42Remember um making snap decisions at a
38:44given point and having the vision to
38:46incorporate that and learning as you go
38:48along it's going to take an enormous
38:49amount of compute. So this is the
38:51beginning of showing how the models are
38:53now entering next stage. It's funny how
38:55many people go. The images you have on
38:58these slides on the weekend are so good.
39:00Where do you do them? You guys don't
39:03know how to do them. So again, I used to
39:06use nano banana a long time ago. That
39:07stopped. I remember
39:08>> and and it has been chatbt since then.
39:11But it's amazing to me that people don't
39:12use them. I I mean I use it all day long
39:14because I'm a visual learner. I prefer
39:16it that way. All right. The gnome brown
39:17thing because I think it's really
39:18important
39:18>> from open AI. Yes, from Anome Brown from
39:21OpenAI sat down with Dwar
39:24there. There will be points if people
39:25listen to it because Dwar is so he can
39:28talk to an open AI researcher. So, one
39:32of the smartest AI reachers in the
39:34researchers in the world, he can speak
39:35to him at eye to eye level and talk
39:37about things. You're like, I don't
39:38understand what that means. I'm the
39:39same. Like, there's certain things I'm
39:41like, skip to the part I care about. So,
39:44there's two parts that are really
39:45important. So I think what I'm really
39:46good at is consuming a lot of
39:47information and then picking out the two
39:49or three things that are I want to
39:51double click on. And there were two
39:54things in there based on the traffic
39:55coming to me. One was the hugging face
39:57thing which no one Brown is a big part
39:58of and he talked about it. You go in
40:01there and he made this phrase the most
40:03important line in the entire thing. We
40:05underestimated
40:07the capabilities of AI.
40:10>> We won't Yeah. And we won't
40:12underestimate it again. I think every
40:16parent goes through that. So I want to
40:17make sure you have that analogy.
40:20At some point you underestimate your
40:24child's ability to do something that you
40:26were taking for granted. So I think for
40:29people who are scared of oh these things
40:31are rogue and they're going to go over.
40:32No, it was the humans underestimating.
40:35It's the most important line in there in
40:37terms of okay on the second part they
40:40spent a lot of time on where the model
40:42is now. and they talked about Navier
40:43Stokes and that is a really important
40:46thing. That's where Muse fits in. We've
40:48entered in the last two months a very
40:52important point and it gets back to he
40:54admitted we're in that parabolic side of
40:56situational awareness. He said it the as
40:59as important as the agents are working
41:01together and he describes how they work
41:03together. It's unbelievable.
41:06It is the model itself that has reached
41:10the levels of being able to solve the
41:11problems. So we are at a point of time
41:15where breakthroughs are going to be
41:16coming that are going to blow your mind.
41:18Number one, that is not a time to be
41:20bearish on stocks, [snorts] science
41:22breakthroughs, cancer curing, stuff like
41:24that. We're going to be having
41:25breakthrough after breakthrough after
41:27breakthrough. That's why the anthropic
41:29news combined with this. So if you're
41:30looking at the hugging face thing going,
41:32"The world's going to end." It could.
41:35And I've heard people describe how it
41:37could happen. And I can I actually can
41:39get to the point that if you combine
41:40humanoids and they're on the planet and
41:42rogue people, whatever, I can get there.
41:45It's not going to happen. But I think
41:46the more important thing is the
41:48capabilities of it have reached a level
41:50that the productivity, if you look at
41:52that situational awareness thing, it's
41:53going to go through the roof.
41:55>> One more statement on this because I
41:56said this down in DC. I've actually
41:58reached a point of of thinking it is it
42:02is just as wrong for people to say
42:05everyone's going to lose their jobs,
42:07okay, as the other side, which is to be
42:10naive enough to then tell the same
42:12people those they're just scaring you.
42:15Nobody's going to lose their job. We're
42:17going to create more jobs. That also is
42:19not being honest cuz that sets you up
42:21say I don't have to do anything. You
42:23know what the right message is for
42:24everyone listening? If you're older and
42:27you're near retirement and you don't
42:28care about your job,
42:30>> okay, fine.
42:31>> Yeah.
42:32>> For your kids though, they need to use
42:34AI. End of story. Like, if you're not
42:37embracing AI, if you're not thinking, if
42:38you're you get smarter, you whatever
42:41everyone thinks of me, I spend a lot of
42:43time trying to use AI to get smarter, to
42:46use AI to build things, to use AI. I'm a
42:48builder. I like to do it. This is going
42:50to be an age of entrepreneurship, which
42:53means you're going to have freedom. You
42:54don't have to work for someone. Work,
42:57job are bad words in my opinion. I don't
42:58know why people want them. They want
43:00them for identity. I get that. Smith
43:02viser means fisherman. I get it. That's
43:04what our lives have been about. But
43:06don't you want to work for yourself and
43:08don't you want to make money and don't
43:09you want to go through it? I believe
43:10investing and letting your money
43:11compound at the same time as finding
43:13ways to drive income is what it is. It's
43:15not about working for someone. It's
43:17about how do I make income and turn that
43:19into more money. The people who are the
43:21wealthiest on the planet, they don't get
43:23paid a big b paycheck. Their money they
43:26turned into more money. That's your
43:28story. That's my story. I turned money
43:30into more money by investing it and
43:32going through it. And I think if
43:33everyone just focuses, and that's why I
43:35try to preach on the videos, learn AI,
43:38understand the markets, understand
43:39crypto, and you're going to be ahead of
43:40the game from the people that control
43:42most of the world's money. And that's
43:43the way you make money is being in front
43:44of the people. Back to the Peter Lynch
43:47story. Bitcoin has hung in there where
43:50we started this conversation. It is now
43:53seems to be consolidating around 83 to
43:56$87,000.
43:58Is that a consolidation before a dump
44:01back down into the 70s? Is that a
44:03consolidation that then should lead to
44:04another breakout? How do you think about
44:06Bitcoin over the next six months?
44:09Well, as I've been saying, I the reason
44:11I wanted to create an index is to
44:13separate what's happening in Bitcoin
44:15from the ecosystem because I think the
44:17ecosystem should be benefiting from the
44:19agentic side and Bitcoin should be uh
44:22benefiting from the ecosystem
44:24benefiting. Uh I don't believe in the so
44:26at some point in innovation
44:29you go from liquidity to fundamentals
44:32and I believe we're at the fundamental
44:34stage now. Bitcoin doesn't fit in that
44:36fundamental argument. Um, it's really
44:39more for, hey, we're going to have a lot
44:41more developers showing up here. We're
44:42going to start building lots of things
44:43because Robin Hood chain is driving.
44:45Like, it's all these different
44:46components that are getting people
44:47excited about the fundamentals. And if
44:49I'm right, what should be happening is
44:51what's happening, which is tenure rates
44:53have now gone higher by almost 100 basis
44:56points.
44:58And I think for the quarter, let's
44:59assume it's up 60 70 basis points for
45:02the quarter. The quarter is coming to an
45:04end soon. And Bitcoin's up 60% for the
45:07quarter with rates with tenure rates
45:08going higher.
45:10>> Is that good?
45:11>> Yeah, that's good. And gold's not going
45:13higher. This is not a liquidity
45:15debasement trade. This is a fundamental
45:17trade. So, uh, the fact that this
45:20morning Salana was trading at 121 and
45:23was up another 4% and it's moving in a
45:26different way. I think these are all
45:28signs
45:30that money is looking into the space and
45:32they're like, "Hey, this thing is
45:33trading more volume." where RWA is going
45:36to fit in. What's the growth rate of
45:37this? Let me look at Hyperlquid. I just
45:39think people are UN or they're doing the
45:40homework. And that's why I said the
45:42homework is happening at the end of this
45:44year, which will be investments for next
45:46year, but it's going to show up after we
45:48get through the midterms. So, I don't
45:50know when we're going to start kind of
45:52the the the rally in stocks that allows
45:55this to continue. It could happen in
45:57December. It could happen before the
45:58midterms and then go sideways. Uh, but I
46:01definitely think as the MAG7 broke out
46:02to new highs this week and as people are
46:04worried about breath and they're worried
46:05about all these things, the amount of
46:08Google trend stock market crash,
46:11everyone go look at it. Go look at the
46:13last week
46:15up to the highs of the year got to 100%.
46:18So, as far as I'm concerned, people are
46:19worried about something going on because
46:21they're seeing all these things on
46:22breath. They're seeing oil going higher.
46:24They're seeing rates go higher. And I
46:26said it in DC. I don't know if I said it
46:27on this show, but I'll say it again. I
46:30was in China in 2008 in May
46:34just months before Lehman Brothers
46:37collapsed.
46:38Oil was at 155.
46:41Here we are now 18 years later.
46:46Oil is 100 and it's not even 100, but
46:49let's just say 100.
46:52155 verse 100. So it's down. You know
46:56how much household net worth has gone
46:59up? You know how much the economy has
47:00gone up? You know how much disposable
47:02income has gone higher? How can oil
47:06matter in the long term? Can it freak
47:09people out? Yeah. But if you're
47:11listening to people my age or higher
47:13telling you that oil matters and they're
47:15giving you 1970 stuff just like they
47:18told you about tariffs from Smoot Holly
47:20and all the other things that have gone
47:22on and they bring out all of these time
47:24periods. These are just people that
47:27don't need to be bullish. That's the end
47:30story. They want to be bearish because
47:32they're not making money in this period
47:34because they believe that the world's
47:36going to end from the death of the 40
47:39trillion. And as I wrote in my token
47:41tokenization paper this week, there's
47:44195 trillion in the US net, not gross,
47:49net. So take out the debt for
47:51households. 95 trillion as of June and
47:5640 trillion of debt. We're worried about
47:59the 40 trillion when the households have
48:02195 trillion. Tokenization
48:06will turn that 195 trillion into
48:09liquidity. That's going to happen over
48:11the next 5 years. So, you can doubt it.
48:13You can say Jord's crazy. Just go look
48:16up tokenization and what's happening and
48:18go read the Black Rockck Black Rockck
48:19report. That's a lot of money that goes
48:21to liquidity. We never need to print
48:24again.
48:25>> Ladies and gentlemen, we're not going to
48:26die. I promise the world is going to be
48:28better in the future than it is in the
48:29past. The doomers are wrong. Jordi is
48:31here. I appreciate you watching. Go
48:33check him out. Jordy Visser on YouTube.
48:35Go subscribe at 22V Research. And I
48:38promise if you use AI, your life will
48:40improve. See you next time.

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