BITCOIN: RETRACE AND CONTINUATION? — Transcript

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1. 0:00hello everybody I hope that you are good
2. 0:02I want to talk really quickly about what
3. 0:04we saw yesterday in the fomc meeting
4. 0:07okay because there is not that much to
5. 0:09say really
6. 0:11um but the thing is that the FMC
7. 0:13statement was you know only repeating
8. 0:15that the two percent inflation Target
9. 0:17Remains the Same that they are not
10. 0:19thinking about changing it
11. 0:21um that they're gonna still be the
12. 0:23dependent to to make decisions for the
13. 0:28next interest rates
14. 0:30um then the press conference was quite
15. 0:32boring because you don't Powell was
16. 0:34going around in circles and he was not
17. 0:37really answering the questions and the
18. 0:39journalists have to repeat all those
19. 0:41questions several times to try to get an
20. 0:43answer
21. 0:44um but anyway I think then at the end of
22. 0:46the press conference he started to sleep
23. 0:48a bit and he gave some more answers well
24. 0:52I remember that the first words that he
25. 0:54said in the press conference uh well in
26. 0:57the in the statement when he came out on
27. 1:00his and he spoke he said that the bank
28. 1:03system is
29. 1:05solid is sound and resilient which it's
30. 1:08you know those words were very similar
31. 1:10to the President Biden said uh this week
32. 1:14um
33. 1:15I don't know guys I don't know how you
34. 1:16feel about one they're telling me
35. 1:19so many times trying to convince me that
36. 1:21something is okay I tend to think that
37. 1:24it's not okay and now if you check Park
38. 1:25West Bank
39. 1:27it's not doing right to be honest so I
40. 1:30don't know if that's true then at the
41. 1:31end also he said
42. 1:33that he thinks that this time is
43. 1:35different and that he thinks he's more
44. 1:38likely to avoid a refreshing than to
45. 1:40enter a recession
46. 1:42um I don't know basically say that this
47. 1:44time is different we'll see about it I
48. 1:46don't believe that the bank said the
49. 1:48same back in 2008.
50. 1:51uh so it's difficult to believe that
51. 1:55um what else uh well basically he said
52. 1:58other data dependent and that he didn't
53. 2:01say that they are going to pause the the
54. 2:04increasing of the rates now but he said
55. 2:06that they are obviously closer to the
56. 2:09end of all a cycle
57. 2:12um I think they're most likely the most
58. 2:14likely thing is that they pause here
59. 2:16that's why that's why everybody is
60. 2:18expecting he also wanted to attack the
61. 2:21federal bonds Futures Market as we
62. 2:23anticipated because they are pricing in
63. 2:26three rate Cuts this year of 25 basis
64. 2:29Points each so it was quite clear that
65. 2:32he was gonna come out and say the Verona
66. 2:34could rate this year okay he said that
67. 2:36back in in March 22nd so that's pretty
68. 2:40much what happened and there was not
69. 2:42that much volatility it seems that the
70. 2:43volatility started coming now look at
71. 2:45this look at that candle okay and I'll
72. 2:49tell you my my view for the market right
73. 2:51now I think what we saw here
74. 2:53okay in this Zone it's something very
75. 2:56similar to what we saw in this area you
76. 2:58can see many weeks to the upside above
77. 3:01well below resistance in this case was
78. 3:03the 50 EMA for our time frame then they
79. 3:05rejected price here something very
80. 3:07similar happened a lot to fix to the
81. 3:09upset but price didn't break up this
82. 3:11Zone
83. 3:12that was the liquidity pool and now it's
84. 3:15fallen again to test the 50 EMA in the
85. 3:18four hour time frame now what I think
86. 3:20that is going on here I don't know if
87. 3:22I'm if I'm right I might be wrong but I
88. 3:25don't see anything really bearish
89. 3:27okay what I'm anticipating really here
90. 3:30is either to see you know this is a push
91. 3:34up
92. 3:35retwisted as a 50ma
93. 3:38in for our time frame and then
94. 3:40continuation maybe to the next liquidity
95. 3:42pool but you have to be cautious because
96. 3:45then yes this is a an imbalance too okay
97. 3:48so maybe they come all the way here or
98. 3:51they do some kind of uh I would say like
99. 3:54a force with like a trap they come below
100. 3:57the 50ma and then they come back above
101. 3:59it really quickly in the next candle and
102. 4:02they go to the next liquidity pool so
103. 4:04for now what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna
104. 4:05wait and see how this Scandal closes
105. 4:07that's gonna close in 20 minutes and how
106. 4:10the next one goes but if this one closes
107. 4:13above the 50ma or if this one closes
108. 4:16below the 50ma per week so the next one
109. 4:18close in above it okay then I would
110. 4:21consider that that was a false move and
111. 4:23we are okay for continuation to the
112. 4:25upside to the next liquidity pool
113. 4:28okay so that's pretty much everything
114. 4:29that I have in in my head I know how
115. 4:32many Traders are going to start drawing
116. 4:33this kind of uh uh you know uptrends and
117. 4:38I have to say that if price comes
118. 4:41uh to this Zone you know the most likely
119. 4:45thing is that there is a lot of Traders
120. 4:48place in their their long Sia maybe it
121. 4:51works again okay but at some point this
122. 4:54trend like the most likely thing is that
123. 4:56it breaks down
124. 4:57okay
125. 4:59um usually I'll tell you I'm trying to
126. 5:00figure out more about how the market
127. 5:02maker plays this kind of
128. 5:06um Trends but usually what they do is
129. 5:08like you know they are expecting price
130. 5:10up they come back it they spice up they
131. 5:13Spike up they come back to it again and
132. 5:15then in one of these what they do is
133. 5:17like they do a very nasty Spike up
134. 5:19something like this and then they break
135. 5:23it they break below okay excuse me for
136. 5:26all I mean I should have used the the
137. 5:28straight lines
138. 5:30um Let me let me remove that so
139. 5:32something like this okay we could see if
140. 5:35if the 50ma gets invalidated and they
141. 5:38come to the trend line and then we see
142. 5:40some kind of support usually what I see
143. 5:44that the market maker does is right
144. 5:46before breaking this trend line they
145. 5:48usually like to spike up quite a lot
146. 5:50more compared to the previous times and
147. 5:52then they have a very sharp dump to
148. 5:56break below because many Traders are
149. 5:58gonna say okay if this holds
150. 6:00two what three times why not fourth time
151. 6:04so they're gonna place the lungs here
152. 6:05and then boom they're gonna get chopped
153. 6:07okay so keep an eye on that but for now
154. 6:10I'm more gonna look for is going to be
155. 6:14to to hold support in the 50 I mean the
156. 6:18forward time frame I mean it would see
157. 6:20some kind of push up retrace
158. 6:22continuation to the next liquidity pool
159. 6:23okay now let's have a look at the
160. 6:26liquidation heat Maps let's see if they
161. 6:28back up this thought or if you have to
162. 6:31maybe consider again a new projection
163. 6:34I'm here in hablo Capital let's start
164. 6:36with a 12 hours time frame okay to get
165. 6:39some context
166. 6:40um okay I see that they've just hit
167. 6:42these liquidations there are some more
168. 6:45at twenty thousand six hundred
169. 6:48um maybe they come here first and maybe
170. 6:50we get that little fake move below the
171. 6:5250ma let's see what happens but you can
172. 6:55see that 29
173. 6:57525 there is quite a lot of liquidations
174. 7:00and this Zone matches with the liquidity
175. 7:02pool we were talking about then next the
176. 7:05seven days time frame let's have a look
177. 7:09okay it's just loaded okay this is
178. 7:13getting very interesting
179. 7:14because we can see that there is a lot
180. 7:18of liquidity again between 29 500 and 29
181. 7:24uh six hundred okay that's again the
182. 7:27liquidity pool so on so why not what am
183. 7:31I see this song getting hit okay we only
184. 7:34need that 50 AMA in the four hour time
185. 7:36frame to hold also you can see quality
186. 7:38of liquidity at 30 300 that matches with
187. 7:42uh about Above This previous High all
188. 7:45right one month time frame I'm expecting
189. 7:48to see quite a lot of liquidity to the
190. 7:50upside
191. 7:51correct let me check this
192. 7:55wow this is really interesting because
193. 7:57you can see that below the previous lows
194. 7:59at 26 400 there is a lot of liquidity
195. 8:02but it's quite clear that there is quite
196. 8:04a lot more liquidity to the upside you
197. 8:06know in the shorter term this is one
198. 8:09month time frame only so 33
199. 8:12300 30 800 and then of course again
200. 8:17above the previous highs because the
201. 8:20previous y the previous high was 31 100
202. 8:23and a very Squad of liquidity at 31 300.
203. 8:29um okay and if we go to the three months
204. 8:31time frame let's see what we see
205. 8:34um now you can see that it's getting
206. 8:36more divided in this Zone because the
207. 8:39liquidity
208. 8:41at 22
209. 8:43500 this is still there it's brutal
210. 8:47um also again in the twenty five
211. 8:49thousand four hundred six hundred
212. 8:51this makes sense because this area it's
213. 8:54uh um it was a very strong previous
214. 8:56resistance that it hasn't been tested as
215. 9:01support yet so it's a sort of interest
216. 9:03in the chart and then to the upside I
217. 9:07see quite a lot of liquidity to be
218. 9:09honest at 31 300
219. 9:12um even higher at 33 400.
220. 9:17um I'm gonna say that I'm not gonna
221. 9:19favor
222. 9:21well I look let's let's let's let's put
223. 9:24it like this okay
224. 9:25If We Hold
225. 9:27above the four hour 50 EMA okay what
226. 9:32when I we're gonna favor higher prices
227. 9:34I'm gonna favor even 30k 30k is on the
228. 9:38table as long as the 4 Hour 50ma holds
229. 9:41or even 31 why not 31k why not
230. 9:45okay we're in the Bitcoin chart so as I
231. 9:47was saying as long as we hold the 15 in
232. 9:49the four hour time frame we're gonna
233. 9:51favor higher prices 29 600 seems quite
234. 9:55uh interesting and even to be honest why
235. 9:58not this one over here above all these
236. 10:00highs that's a thirty thousand three
237. 10:03hundred we go to the Daily time frame
238. 10:04let's see what the daily time frame
239. 10:05tells us uh well you can see that this
240. 10:08zone is also liquidity pool
241. 10:10check this Zone okay this is another
242. 10:13liquidity pool
243. 10:15so why not all the way to 33 300.
244. 10:21I don't see why not we will need the
245. 10:2350ma to hold now in the daily time from
246. 10:26the 50ma has been holding a support so
247. 10:29well you can see how many tested one two
248. 10:33three four five six it has tested
249. 10:38support six times so it's proven it's
250. 10:41worth okay
251. 10:43now
252. 10:44this is only telling me that you know we
253. 10:46have quite a solid support here and
254. 10:48higher prices are likely
255. 10:52especially twenty nine thousand six
256. 10:54hundred and thirty thousand three
257. 10:56hundred bow
258. 10:57if we start to lose this 50ma the 15 in
259. 11:01the daily time frame then I've said this
260. 11:03many times we're gonna look at this Zone
261. 11:06that 25
262. 11:09000 Zone okay so that would be you know
263. 11:12something like this
264. 11:14yeah uh 25
265. 11:17250. that's the song that's the next
266. 11:19song if we lose the 50 I mean the daily
267. 11:21time frame
268. 11:23um sorry for speaking so fast today but
269. 11:25I'm running a bit late with this video I
270. 11:28want you to see it as soon as possible
271. 11:29okay so thank you so much guys for
272. 11:32watching and I'll see you soon