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Bitcoin Is Entering Its Most Powerful Wave Ever — Transcript

by Anthony Pompliano · 11,105 words · 1,719 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I believe from an Elliott Wave
0:01perspective, we're entering a third
0:02wave. A big, the most powerful wave in
0:04crypto. For that to happen and the
0:06reasons behind it, we need this kind of
0:09doubt when [music] it starts to go up.
0:11Um because the energy that should be
0:12associated should be real.
0:14>> [music]
0:14>> For this to be a third wave, I also need
0:18the Silo IPO thing to be there. I need
0:21it to see
0:22>> What's going on, guys? Today, we have a
0:23great conversation with Jordi Visser. In
0:25it, we talk about interest rates, why
0:27everyone's worried about them going
0:28higher, but maybe it's not actually
0:29going to affect the economy or your
0:30portfolio as much as you think. We talk
0:32about Bitcoin and whether it's going
0:33higher, lower, or going to stay the
0:35same. Why people are so bearish, but
0:36Jordi is so bullish. And then we talk
0:38about AI agents and what's going on,
0:40changing in the way we work, the way
0:41that we live our lives, and how it is
0:43going to impact everything around us.
0:45This conversation has a ton of impact on
0:47what is actually going to occur in your
0:49portfolio, in the US economy over the
0:51coming years. I highly suggest that you
0:53listen to this very carefully, and I
0:54think that you'll get a lot of value out
0:55of it. Here's my latest conversation
0:57with Jordi Visser.
0:58All right, Jordi, we're back in studio.
1:00You got a Hawaiian shirt on, I got a
1:01Yankees hat, we're ready to rock and
1:02roll. Uh everyone has one big question,
1:05are interest rates going to go up or are
1:06they not? Scott Bessent this week gave
1:08an interview and he said, "I have more
1:09information than the market has."
1:11Obviously. Uh how are you analyzing
1:14whether rates will go up or not, and
1:16then what is the impact of them
1:17changing?
1:19>> All right. Fir- first of all, and I did
1:21post some stuff in X, and I'm going to
1:23do some stuff in the the video for the
1:25weekend. Um
1:28your question aligns with the way people
1:30are freaking out. Um I I personally,
1:34I'm shocked. For for let's just use
1:36tenure rates.
1:38For the most part, they've been stuck in
1:40a 50 basis point range for the last
1:42almost 4 years. Since the peak in 2022
1:45or the peak since they started to range
1:47trade.
1:49Rates should be going higher because
1:50nominal GDP is over 6% and nominal GDP
1:54is over 6% because of the AI trade,
1:57which is all related to the build out of
1:58the AI trade.
2:00I don't think people should be focused
2:02on whether rates are going up or not. I
2:04think the question is will rates do
2:07anything to the economy?
2:09>> [snorts]
2:09>> And number two, and most importantly,
2:11the administration and Scott Bessent
2:13have shown their hands that they don't
2:15want rates to go higher.
2:16And regardless of the reasons, he's not
2:18going to publicly go out and say, "Well,
2:19we're really focused on the fact that
2:21the um the deficit's big, and if we let
2:25rates go higher, then our interest
2:27expense is going to be higher, and we're
2:28going to be in worse of a the debt
2:30situation."
2:31I think the more important thing for
2:32people to think about again is will
2:35rates of this magnitude, this is not a
2:37big move. So, will rates making this
2:40scary 20-year high, which is the chart
2:43that everyone shows around, and that all
2:45the people
2:46that believe in the end game that
2:48Druckenmiller wrote about, which is
2:51you're manipulating a yield to where it
2:53should be,
2:55and it should be higher. So, I agree
2:58with that. What I don't agree with is
3:00that people should sell stocks because
3:02of that, or that they should be thinking
3:04that something bad is going to happen.
3:06And the reason is there is no
3:07sensitivity to rates within inside the
3:09AI build out. And I'm going to show that
3:11this weekend, too. The margins for the
3:13frontier models, which are Anthropic and
3:16OpenAI, which are really the drivers of
3:18the entire thing at this point. So,
3:20users are using ChatGPT and Anthropic.
3:22They've become a dual op a duopoly. And
3:24>> yes, you have open source, but these are
3:26the companies that the enterprises are
3:28using. These are the ones that are able
3:29to charge the prices they're charging.
3:32>> Their margins are enormous, and interest
3:35rates have almost no impact. So, I'm
3:37going to show with the work of
3:40Claude and ChatGPT with Gemini as my
3:43fact-checker and then using them all as
3:44my fact-checker, that a 200 basis point
3:46rise in
3:4910-year yields doesn't change the
3:51margins for Anthropic or Open AI by very
3:54much. It's about from let's say 70% to
3:5669%. 200 basis points. This is the first
3:59time that this has gone on. So, part of
4:01this fear over rates is the history of
4:03an economy that was driven by housing
4:05and was driven by autos and the great
4:07financial crisis. So again, I've said
4:09this repeatedly, if you listen to
4:10economists, you are going to lose money.
4:13If you listen to people who take the
4:14past and extrapolate into a time with
4:17exponential demand where margins are
4:20infinite. I mean, they're as high as
4:22they can be and the demand side is never
4:25ending because we barely have started
4:27and the advancements in Grokbot mean
4:30more usage. Astra,
4:33which hasn't been released to us yet,
4:34but you read through X like
4:36everything is going to continue and I'll
4:38leave it with one more thing. Um, I was
4:40listening to a podcast today and
4:42basically the way they're talking about
4:44it at Open AI and Anthropic is in the
4:47next year,
4:49we will basically have about four years
4:51of model capability improvements. Now,
4:54the reason that's important is so
4:55everyone realizes
4:57that four years is equating to going
4:59from Chat GPT's original launch to
5:02Astra. And now we're talking about next
5:04year that's going to happen. So, this is
5:06all about AI agents. This is all about
5:08consumer agents. This is all about
5:10enterprise adoption. This is all about
5:11profit margins
5:13and rates are just not going to be as
5:15important as they've been in the past.
5:16So, that's my angle on rates at this
5:18point. All right, so
5:20>> let's say that you are right, which I do
5:21I do believe that you are correct in
5:22that if rates go up 200 basis points,
5:24you're not going to see a significant
5:25change in
5:27uh the profit margins of the large AI
5:29companies. Great.
5:31The AI companies may be employ tens of
5:33thousands of people. Um, maybe we get to
5:36100,000 if you kind of expand the
5:37definition of the large language models.
5:40Uh, there are 300 plus million
5:42Americans. Uh, there's still the housing
5:44market. There's still, you know, um,
5:47business loans and R&D and you know,
5:50growth of all these other economies,
5:51etc.
5:52Why do you think that the only thing
5:54that really matters is the AI companies
5:57as if rates go up, then AI companies
6:00aren't affected and therefore the
6:01economy isn't, you know, kind of held
6:02back?
6:03>> So, when I say the only thing that
6:05matters, again, I'm saying you're not
6:06going to take nominal GDP to go down far
6:08if rates go
6:11from 4 and 3/4 to 5 and 1/4. Now, again,
6:14the administration doesn't want that to
6:15happen.
6:16Do I think investors could freak out?
6:19Sure. And I think we've already seen
6:21that. I think we've seen the S&P 500
6:23multiple come down this year.
6:25>> So, just to make sure that maybe let me
6:26repeat this back. What you're saying is
6:28if rates go up 150 to 200 basis points,
6:31asset prices could fall, other parts of
6:33the economy could slow down or or feel
6:35pain, but the main driver of GDP growth
6:38right now is the AI companies and if the
6:40AI companies are insulated from the rate
6:42increase, then you're saying GDP base is
6:45going to be untouched by increases in
6:47rates unlike how it has been in the
6:49past.
6:49>> Yeah, and and let me rephrase this in a
6:52better way.
6:54It always matters how fast rates go
6:56higher. So, if rates went from 5% to 7%
6:59today,
7:00because that happened overnight, you'd
7:02have a ton of small businesses and
7:05things go out of business immediately
7:06and then you'd have job losses come in.
7:10If it happens slowly over time,
7:12no, it to me it's not going to have an
7:14impact. So, let's go back to what
7:15happened in 2022. I mean, they were
7:17aggressively raising rates. Everyone
7:19thought there'd be a recession. We've
7:21already gone through this once. It
7:22didn't do anything.
7:24Meaning it didn't put us into a
7:26recession, but it was a given to
7:28everyone who is using history. So, for
7:31some reason people have forgot this. I'm
7:33going to use the Nikkei as an example
7:34because I when I posted this week, I'm
7:37like, the Nikkei has gone up 70% since
7:40May of last year.
7:42May of last year is when
7:44all of these places on X were
7:46highlighting that 30-year yields in
7:48Japan were making all-time highs.
7:50We've only gone higher in yield since
7:52then, and yet the Nikkei's up 70%.
7:56So, we've had a K-shaped economy for a
7:58while.
7:59If rates went up, the K-shape would not
8:02get better. Just because Anthropic and
8:04OpenAI still have demand from
8:05enterprises, it doesn't mean we wouldn't
8:07lose tons of small businesses.
8:09So, here's my belief as to what's going
8:11to happen. The reason rates go higher is
8:13cuz they cleanse the system and a
8:14recession is needed. So, what
8:15Druckenmiller said, you're if you're
8:16going to manipulate rates lower,
8:18you're not only allowing the economy to
8:20run hotter, you're allowing a lot of
8:23businesses that are kind of zombie
8:24businesses to hang on, look to borrow
8:26more money again, and be like, I Okay, I
8:29was I was netting $30,000 this year, and
8:32if rates at this level and I have to
8:34refinance, I'll net 15. So, there is a a
8:37rationale that if you let rates go
8:38higher, or if the Fed raises rates,
8:40they'll speed up the process. I'm not
8:43saying what they should do, and this is
8:45what I talked about last week. This
8:46whole thing of normative investing or
8:48normative statements, what they should
8:50do,
8:51Bostic has made it clear with the yen
8:53intervention, with the quarterly
8:55refunding announcement and the language
8:57change, with the buyback and out, with
8:59the fact that he could use the TGA, with
9:01doubling the buybacks, and now we've got
9:03the yen rallying again this week. I'm
9:05just saying that what the administration
9:07is saying to everyone,
9:08for whatever reason, they're not going
9:10to come out and announce it. They don't
9:12want rates to go higher. So, do I think
9:14Kevin Warsh could raise rates? Of
9:16course, he could. It's now more than 50%
9:18chance after the payroll number today.
9:20Do I think people should be freaking out
9:21when earnings are growing 30%?
9:24I think the mistake people are going to
9:25make, and what I looked at this week, in
9:27the last 10 days,
9:29we had shockingly good numbers from
9:32Nvidia. And when I say shockingly, I
9:34really want people to focus that a
9:36company, one of the biggest or the
9:38biggest in the world,
9:40said to the street, "Yeah, your revenue
9:43estimates of 44% for next year,
9:46they're way too low.
9:48We're going to say it's 70." When
9:49really, that means it's 100.
9:52At their size, to have that kind of
9:54revenue increase next year, and for the
9:56stock to trade lower 2 days later, well,
10:00now it's gone back up towards the highs.
10:02And what happened this week? Dell came
10:03out with, again, shocking
10:05pre-announcement of what's going on.
10:08People can disagree with what's
10:10happening. But on the one side, you have
10:11a government that doesn't want rates to
10:13go higher because they believe that the
10:15current situation in growth and
10:17inflation will look very different a
10:19year from now. And I don't think anyone
10:21can argue with that possibility with AI
10:23going this fast. At the same time, the
10:25facts are that the stock market is
10:27sitting near all-time highs, and these
10:29companies are printing money even with
10:30rates going higher, and nobody's
10:32stopping their spending. So, I just I I
10:34at times, I think people get caught too
10:36much in this game of the past and what
10:39rates are doing, and they're not
10:40focusing enough on the reality of
10:42earnings are growing rapidly. I'm an
10:44investor. Do I want to sit this one out
10:47and hope
10:48that I'm not missing something? A 25
10:50basis point increase by the Fed is not
10:51going to change any of the things that I
10:53just talked about. Now,
10:55what could change?
10:57>> Like, how how could it negatively
10:58affect? Is it demand goes away? Is it
11:00that there we run into the limitation of
11:01the physical just economy of building
11:03out, you know, data centers and and
11:05compute? What what is the things that
11:07could derail, you know, maybe the the
11:09economic golden age that we're headed
11:11towards?
11:12>> There's plenty of things that could
11:13derail it. You could get oil prices to
11:15go up significantly. You could have uh
11:18and and I'm sure we will
11:21>> [sighs]
11:21>> have uh cyber attacks that have an
11:24impact and freak people out.
11:26I've said this before, I'll say it
11:28again.
11:29I'm not some person who's bullish on the
11:32stock market
11:33in a way that I think earnings are going
11:35to keep growing, but I think the
11:37multiples are going to keep compressing
11:38cuz I think terminal value is being
11:40questioned outside of 3 years. I think
11:42cyber worsens that situation. I don't
11:44think oil and I don't think these
11:45short-term things are going to derail
11:47what we're talking about. I think you
11:49would have to have a significant change.
11:52Investor psychology is very much
11:54impacted by the things that we talked
11:56about. So, Nvidia is an example of a
11:59company that has just printed money, but
12:01as I said at some point last week, I
12:03think it got down to like 215, which is
12:06the same level
12:08that the high was in October of last
12:09year despite massive numbers. So, that
12:12is a situation where you don't get
12:13rewarded. When I've talked to traders,
12:17I have said [snorts] repeatedly that I
12:18think July of this year was a warning to
12:21everyone who's a fundamental investor.
12:24Historically, if you thought, "Okay, I
12:26think Nvidia is going to not only beat
12:29numbers, I think they're going to crush
12:31numbers, and I think they're going to
12:32say next year, forget the current
12:34numbers, but next year they're going to
12:35guide way up."
12:38You would get paid for that. You're not
12:39getting paid for that stuff anymore.
12:41When does Nvidia outperform?
12:43Maybe it will now, maybe it'll happen in
12:45a month, but it doesn't happen the way
12:47that you thought. And I think that is
12:49the market structure changing where AI
12:51agents who care more about making money
12:54and not about being right or not about
12:56being rewarded, but also have more
12:58information than humans have because
13:00they're able to scrape things more. I
13:02just think the market structure is
13:03changing. So, the place that I want to
13:04focus on
13:06is the places where people are not
13:07invested right now. The stock market is
13:09over-owned. It's It's massive in terms
13:12of how much people own it. If it goes up
13:14at 7% a year while earnings grow at 20%,
13:17which is kind of the way I think the
13:19multiple compression happens, and
13:21there's more periodic 20% drawdowns
13:23because of things we're talking about, a
13:24cyber attack on a bank. Oh my god,
13:26everybody's at risk. Just like we saw
13:28with software in the first quarter,
13:30I want to look to places like crypto
13:32that are based on scarcity. So, it's not
13:35an endless supply where people don't
13:37embrace it, but AI agents do. So, I want
13:40to be long things that agents embrace,
13:42but humans don't.
13:43>> Mhm. Now, um I have a crazy stat for
13:46you. I like to bring one stat per year.
13:48Bitcoin, gold, land
13:50up about 170% over the last 5 years. S&P
13:53up about 70%.
13:55I think that if you were to go ask
13:56people, the hard asset category is not
13:59nearly as sexy as the stock market has
14:02been, being driven especially by these
14:03AI companies, these large caps, etc.
14:06The fact that these harder assets like
14:08Bitcoin, gold, land, etc. have done so
14:11well tells me that ultimately this is
14:12just about money printing. And if we go
14:15and we look at the national debt at 40
14:17trillion, over a trillion dollar annual
14:20expense and increasing, more promises
14:22being made every single day both in
14:24terms of volume of existing promises,
14:25but also just new things we invent to
14:27give out,
14:28it doesn't seem like the money printing
14:30is going to stop anytime soon.
14:32So, we know that Bitcoin, gold, land,
14:35and you know, real estate, other things
14:36that are uh kind of beneficiaries of the
14:39money printing will continue to do well.
14:41Does the stock market benefit from the
14:43money printing or is there some sort of
14:46distortion of return because if most of
14:49the stock market return is just the
14:50money printing, do you actually like not
14:52outperform inflation or is like real
14:53returns become a concern?
14:56>> I So, I'm not a What I have a very
14:59different take on this that I've
15:01I've never heard anyone else say.
15:03Perfect. So,
15:06the fractional reserve banking system is
15:08about putting $1 into
15:10a bank and it turning into $10.
15:13>> [snorts]
15:14>> Uh that is leverage.
15:15>> Seems weird.
15:16>> Yeah. So, you can call it a Ponzi
15:18scheme, you can call it whatever.
15:20The money printing could continue, but
15:22let's assume that that's exactly the
15:24equation. And right now around the
15:25globe, I think the total sum of all the
15:28money,
15:29not the value of the assets, but the
15:31money,
15:33is let's say a hundred trillion dollars.
15:36But the value of the assets is seven
15:37hundred trillion. So, let's assume it's
15:39a seven to one ratio.
15:41What I believe will happen is
15:44the money supply will keep growing,
15:46but the asset values won't be growing up
15:48as much as the money supply. Now, people
15:51will say, "Well, the S&P and this and
15:52that." Okay. So, stocks can outperform,
15:56but
15:57stocks are I mean, bonds are a bigger
15:59portion or about the same as stocks.
16:01Bonds aren't doing well. I mean, they're
16:03down again this year. And if you look at
16:04them since 2021, they're down in
16:06aggregate. If you go through housing,
16:09okay, we had the run-up in COVID, but
16:11real estate around the planet,
16:12commercial real estate, all that, if you
16:14aggregate all of it, you're not getting
16:15the return, you're not getting the price
16:17appreciation of that. And we're going
16:19into a world of AI agents where we don't
16:20need as many people in the office. So,
16:23if I go through the world of assets,
16:26I believe what's going to happen is the
16:27money printing will continue, but when
16:29you look back, gradually the leverage
16:31will be coming down, because we don't
16:33need all the money if we're going into a
16:36world of abundance. So, people can
16:38question what Elon Musk says or what I
16:41believe he's right about, which is that
16:43the deflationary pressures from AI are
16:45far more extreme than people realize.
16:47And they won't feel it until humanoids
16:49come in. But then when you get into
16:51what's the value of a house? Well, part
16:53of the value of any house is the ability
16:55to buy a similar build a similar house
16:57next to it. If humanoids can build a
16:59house and the materials have fallen in
17:01value because we figured out ways to
17:03solve for all kinds of things. How is
17:06the value of the house going up? So, I
17:08think what's going to happen over time
17:09is we have to separate the money
17:12printing happening at the government
17:13level, which was done to keep the assets
17:16afloat, because if the assets went down,
17:18we ended up in the Great Depression. So,
17:20this whole leveraging of the system, the
17:23fractional reserve banking system, was
17:25to not repeat what my grandmother went
17:28through. Not being able to get food, not
17:30being able to get a job, having to leave
17:31her home at 16 years old. So, I do
17:34believe that the deleveraging is going
17:35to happen.
17:37And that's the irony. Everyone believes
17:38that the deleveraging has to happen by
17:40assets collapsing back to the money
17:41supply. I actually believe what happens
17:43is the money supply continues to grow,
17:45but the assets don't grow as fast or
17:47they actually come down in a slower
17:49manner, and the money is eventually
17:51transferred. And this is where the
17:52crypto side comes in, which is the one
17:54thing I know about all people. And I've
17:56said this at dinners that I've been out
17:57recently.
17:59All people want to invest in things that
18:00grow.
18:01And if the S&P 500 isn't going higher,
18:04but it's not falling, but the reason
18:05it's not going higher is because we're
18:06just recycling winners and losers out of
18:08it, but it's just not going anywhere.
18:10If you can't invest in growth, cuz
18:12everyone wants to invest in something
18:13that's growing, then the game becomes
18:15just storing your money and making sure
18:17you don't lose it because
18:19we're having deleveraging at a
18:20deflationary rate, which is what I
18:22believe will start in 3 5 years when
18:24humanoids actually become something
18:25real. We're already seeing that, you and
18:27I both know it. The whole cyber cab
18:29thing that's rolling out in Austin
18:30Moore, what he's now publicly saying,
18:32"Okay, who wants to buy some of these?
18:33We're putting out a form where you guys
18:35are going to be able to buy fleets of
18:36these." I've seen this repeatedly with
18:38people showing me business plans.
18:40The deflationary pressures of the
18:42ability of people who are using AI is
18:45growing rapidly where they can drive
18:47costs lower. I think that it means money
18:49supply continues to increase for the
18:51time being,
18:52but I think the assets don't go up the
18:53way they used to.
18:54>> Will you buy a Tesla cyber cab fleet?
18:58>> It's too much work for me.
19:00>> Too much work? It does It does all the
19:01driving [laughter] for you. What do you
19:02got to do?
19:03>> I'll wait until it's as simple as that.
19:05See, the people that get in early, you
19:07know there's going to be headaches for
19:09this.
19:09>> Like what?
19:11>> Uh okay, liability issues. All there no
19:13matter what happens.
19:15So, when I and I don't know if you've
19:17you've come into this. So, I have a lot
19:19of investment opportunities that come my
19:21way. And
19:24it's shocking
19:26the returns that you're talking about on
19:28stuff that seems so simple. Okay? And
19:31what I mean by simple, these are
19:32arbitrages based on they're all on
19:34artificial intelligence. It's people
19:35that have incorporated into something.
19:37Now, when I used to go visit pension
19:39funds, one of the stories that I would
19:40hear them say, "Pension funds are
19:42massive institutions. They have a
19:44certain yield they need to meet. So,
19:46they've always said that if they could
19:47find people getting involved in like
19:49these
19:51little businesses that churn off 20%
19:54with low risk, they would love to go
19:56through them." And people may laugh, but
19:57there are businesses out there just
19:58can't scale. So, maybe it only has a
20:01marketplace of a billion dollars and
20:03seven people are doing it and they're
20:04they've each raised a hundred million
20:05dollars and they're putting off 18% a
20:07year. Trust me, that's not that big of a
20:09deal for
20:10the hedge fund world. Like these places
20:12exist. The problem they have is if you
20:14could find
20:1612,000 of those funds doing that, then
20:19you aggregate up to a bigger number. I
20:21think that's what the cyber fleet stuff
20:22is going to be like. Like the people
20:24that get in it first, they're going to
20:25be getting good returns because they're
20:27getting some risk involved in it. I
20:29think tokenization is going to make this
20:31something that everyone can invest in.
20:32It's going to make it's going to
20:33democratize everyone being able to find
20:36something. This is where AI agents will
20:38drive money towards investments that
20:40have the best risk reward. Because at
20:41the end of the day, a multi-strat a
20:43millennium,
20:45if they have a thousand strategies and
20:47they're producing a sharp ratio of three
20:49to one. So, somebody that can make 6%
20:52Well, now with this with rates here,
20:54let's say 10% on a very low vol and then
20:57they can take
20:59a thousand of these strategies
21:01and they put them all together in one
21:03basket and they're all uncorrelated with
21:04each other,
21:05well, then your return stays the same,
21:08your vol drops off even further, and you
21:11end up with a return. I think that's
21:12what tokenization is going to bring. So,
21:13that's why the cyber feet the cyber cab
21:16and the fleet side fits into an example
21:19of
21:20over time that risk at the beginning,
21:22maybe it's 20%, maybe it's 30%. It only
21:25works for people have lots of money, but
21:26then over time those returns drop down
21:28because too many dollars are chasing
21:30into it because AI agents are like, this
21:32is a good business for us to get into.
21:34I'm not going to get involved initially.
21:36>> All right. Today's episode is brought to
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22:42>> Um Bitcoin, you previously have said
22:4482,000 was a number that you were paying
22:47attention to. Uh Bitcoin tagged 82,000,
22:51just over 82,000. I yelled Yahtzee when
22:53I saw it.
22:54And Bitcoin is still at around 79,
22:5680,000.
22:58Uh
22:58does it have to break through 82,000, or
23:01how are you thinking about that being
23:02some magic number of uh importance for
23:05Bitcoin?
23:07>> For it to get to 100,000, one thing I
23:08know for sure, it's got to break 82,000.
23:10>> That is true. That is true. It also has
23:12to break 83, 84, 85.
23:13>> has to do all of those.
23:15Um
23:16So, I I
23:19I view technical levels as a place where
23:21it just brings in uh
23:24it convinces more people to get
23:26involved.
23:27I've been actually
23:28both surprised and then pleasantly
23:31surprised
23:33how non-accepting people are of this
23:35rally at this point. I expected there to
23:37be more euphoria, and let me break it
23:39into two parts. I even saw something
23:40from when we came in here from Fidelity
23:43posting that said
23:45there's no guarantee the bear market is
23:47over. Okay, first of all, for everyone
23:48watching
23:50there's never a guarantee that a bear
23:51market is over. Even if it goes to
23:53200,000, you can say it's a bull market
23:56again. It doesn't mean we won't get
23:57through 60,000 again.
23:58Um so, to get for people to guarantee,
24:01that means we've got to do a certain
24:03amount of things.
24:04Uh
24:05for me, I care more about
24:08the crew of people, that's the
24:09community. I love the community. It's
24:11one of the best things I've had. Your
24:12events, I love going to them. I like
24:14going to our old pal's events. Like, I
24:16like meeting the community.
24:18>> October 7th and 8th, another one in New
24:20York City. Go ahead.
24:21>> Yes, I'll be there. Um
24:23and I'll bring one other community up in
24:25in a second on this. Uh I've been
24:26surprised that the community is still
24:29asking
24:30we're we're going to get another dip
24:32down to 60,000 again though, right?
24:34So, people had this mindset
24:36which is we're not bottoming till
24:38October. And I I I
24:40>> Didn't you look at a four-year chart,
24:41George?
24:41>> That was
24:42That's the thing. So, this thing got
24:44kind of out of control. Now, I've said
24:47here and I've said repeatedly in my
24:49writings and everything else that I
24:50believe from an Elliott Wave perspective
24:52we're entering a third wave, a big the
24:54most powerful wave in crypto.
24:56For that to happen and the reasons
24:57behind it, we need this kind of doubt
25:00when it starts to go up um because the
25:02energy that should be associated should
25:04be real. For this to be a third wave, I
25:08also need
25:10the sign in IPO thing to be there. I
25:12needed it to see
25:14people that believe in it to not believe
25:16in it anymore. And I'm not going to name
25:18names, but I told you beforehand, I was
25:20at a dinner this week
25:21and I did hear someone who absolutely uh
25:25was a strong believer
25:27and doesn't believe as much. And I like
25:29that. Meaning, I want to see that type
25:31of mentality. I wanted to see it with
25:33the idealogs who got involved at the
25:35very beginning and were selling out. I
25:37like seeing Mark Cuban say on TV, "I'm
25:39I'm pretty much done with it. It's not
25:40what I thought it was."
25:43I've never been more sure of the fact
25:45that we need the financial guardrails.
25:47I've also never been more sure of the
25:50fact that you've got Bitcoin as
25:52collateral and store value. You've got
25:54Ethereum for kind of the trust that is
25:56going to have to happen for people to
25:57build on things.
25:59And then you're going to have Solana for
26:00the speed. That's where I've kind of
26:01ended up. Now, are there other tokens
26:03that will outperform? Of course. I I I
26:05don't really care about that. What I
26:06care about is
26:08I want people to understand that to get
26:10to these points, where's tokenization
26:12right now? Well, this is that other
26:14community I mentioned.
26:16When I went to a Robinhood event, I was
26:18blown away by the community. Completely
26:20blown away.
26:21Um I remember sitting on stage on a
26:23panel and talking and then meeting
26:25people afterwards,
26:27it's the same type of crowd as the
26:29crypto crowd. There's a link between
26:32them. What's going on with Robinhood
26:33chain? And I spent a good amount of
26:35time. Um I've read enough about this
26:39some of the programmable tokens they
26:40have out there.
26:42I spent a lot of time on this thing
26:43called Bucket this week and it was
26:45purely for
26:46knowledge of what
26:48can happen in a community-based thing
26:50and where we'll be in 10 years. Bucket?
26:53Bucket. It's some token that is on
26:56Robinhood chain.
26:58And it was interesting to me. And again,
27:00it it's more meme coinish. It's It's
27:02It's not something that didn't exist. I
27:04did a lot of research. It's not
27:05something that didn't exist before, but
27:07this community aspect, this programmable
27:10side, something that isn't just, "Hey,
27:12it's Bitcoin. Hey, it's this." But we're
27:14getting into the point of programmable
27:16impacts on the economy because agents
27:18are coming in.
27:20So, AI agents happening now. Billions of
27:23them a year from now.
27:24It's right now. Like, the news on
27:26Grokbot connecting
27:28the Collison brothers posted this week
27:30on it. Connected. Everything is
27:33connecting every single week to where
27:34transactions are happening. Grokbot is a
27:37major thing. Astra, now.
27:40AGI stuff all over the papers. We're at
27:42that agentic point.
27:45And we're connecting AI to crypto. So, I
27:47can see from a third wave perspective
27:49that people should be more bullish now
27:51than ever.
27:52But they're married to the same thing as
27:54the interest rates. What is the
27:55four-year cycle? It's a historical
27:57mental thing for people. So, they're
27:59hoping that it comes back to 60,000, and
28:01maybe it will. In my mind, when we get
28:03through 82,000, if it occurs the way I
28:06think it will, which is
28:07not because rates go down,
28:10but because the stock market and the
28:12economy and profits look through rates
28:15while the government is doing their
28:19usual thing of saying, "We're not going
28:21to let the K-shaped economy get out of
28:22place."
28:24The Jeff Booth theory to me is real,
28:26which is
28:27they print money to offset to some
28:30degree the K-shaped impact. They can't
28:32do it completely.
28:34And it creates move towards [snorts]
28:35socialism,
28:36all these moves cuz so many people are
28:38not benefiting from it, and the costs
28:40are going higher.
28:41But if profits are still growing and
28:43assets are going higher, and they need
28:44that to happen, that's where crypto
28:47actually does the best because they are
28:49manipulating things right now. And
28:51that's why what Stan Druckenmiller wrote
28:53is true in my mind. Rates should be more
28:54like 8% right now on 10-year yields. Not
28:56even five, not even six. They should be
28:58about 200 basis points above nominal GDP
29:00the way they were before 1997
29:03consistently. But we're not there. So,
29:05whether they should be 6% or 8, there's
29:07some manipulation going here that's
29:09keeping rates suppressed and that means
29:10crypto should be doing better. So,
29:12sometimes I go to the frontier. You
29:14know, it's like a
29:15>> Remember young men like Daniel Boone and
29:16Davy Crockett would push west and then
29:18they would come back and they would tell
29:20people, "Listen to what I found on the
29:21on the frontier."
29:22>> Mhm.
29:23>> This week I went to the frontier and I
29:24talked to a founder
29:26um who who I'm investing in his company
29:28but uh he recently went through the YC
29:31uh accelerator um or incubator program.
29:33And um he made one change to his
29:36business and his business started to
29:38take off.
29:39>> [snorts]
29:39>> And as we were sitting there talking, I
29:41literally was saying to myself, "I am
29:43watching the frontier play out."
29:46He used to have a uh data product where
29:49he sold a SaaS license to humans. So,
29:52monthly fee, you get access, you then
29:54can access this data
29:57uh pipeline that he's built, then you
29:59use it for whatever your your need is.
30:02About 10 weeks ago,
30:04he changed
30:06to not allow humans really to sign up.
30:08Instead, agents can sign up.
30:11>> Mhm.
30:12>> He now has
30:13thousands of agents that have signed up.
30:16They are paying as they go.
30:18The average agent is now spending
30:20100-plus dollars per year with him. And
30:24his revenue looks like, you know, every
30:26investor's dream. Just took off.
30:30And he started doing some math and he
30:32was like, "Well, given the number of
30:33agents I have right now, here's my
30:34revenue run rate.
30:36If I get to 1 million agents doing this,
30:39then he would have, you know, 100-plus
30:42million dollars of revenue. If I get to
30:4410 million,
30:46then I could have a billion dollars of
30:47revenue.
30:48And we were talking about a million
30:51agents
30:52sounds way easier than a million people.
30:57Cuz a million people
30:58>> [snorts]
30:59>> is In this room right now, there's three
31:01people.
31:02But the three of us, how many agents do
31:04we have?
31:0650? 60? 100? You know what I mean? I
31:08don't know. I have just on Grockit
31:10alone, probably 15 or 16 agents that are
31:12all working for me right now.
31:14That's just Grockit. And then you go to
31:16all these other things. And so like
31:18I said to him, I was like, "Oh my god,
31:20these businesses are going to be way
31:21bigger. They're going to grow way
31:22faster. Like everything you're talking
31:24about with the agents being able to pay
31:26and consume and make decisions,
31:27whatever. This guy basically was like,
31:29"Why am I trying to serve the humans?
31:30Humans are not an interesting market
31:32compared to the agents."
31:33And so I'm coming back from the
31:34frontier. I'm here to tell you I think
31:36you're right. I think that this is
31:38exactly where this is all going.
31:40>> [snorts]
31:40>> Um
31:42trying to think which two place to go.
31:44So I'm going to give you two separate
31:45conversations that I had this week on on
31:47this on this topic of agents and just
31:49make sure. And And for people listening
31:51who care um
31:54about their kids' future, again, I'll
31:56say it again and again, whatever I've
31:58said in the past about how important it
31:59is to be on top of AI,
32:01I think the same thing holds for crypto
32:03at this point because of the agentic
32:05side. So when we talked about AI agents,
32:07it was about jobs. I also think that
32:09crypto's an important part of this
32:11because I think understanding crypto at
32:12this point puts you ahead of the game
32:14from the majority of people that control
32:16the world's money. And you want to be in
32:17front, and I'm going to talk about this
32:19over the weekend, you want to be in
32:20front of people from an investment
32:22standpoint on who have all the money. So
32:26the people that have all the money do
32:27not believe in crypto.
32:28The financial guardrails are needed for
32:30this. It It's just I don't even know how
32:31to say it anymore. Agents can't do
32:34anything
32:36on the old rails. It doesn't work. So,
32:39if you believe that AI agents are here,
32:41which they are, and then you get back to
32:43the point that I've said as someone
32:44who's managed hundreds of people and
32:46started managing over 100 people in my
32:48early 40s.
32:52It Not everyone works as hard as every
32:55other person.
32:56Shocker.
32:57>> Yes.
32:58>> So, on the one side as an observation,
33:01if I had 100 people,
33:03I can rank them like how hard they work.
33:05Now, it doesn't mean that the one who
33:07works the least isn't have a higher IQ
33:10and maybe is more productive, but just
33:11from a work ethic perspective, there's
33:13always a range.
33:15All of them
33:17think
33:18they deserve more money than they're
33:19getting.
33:20>> Of course.
33:20>> Every single one of you.
33:21>> Me, too.
33:22>> [laughter]
33:23>> So,
33:23uh
33:24every single person
33:26>> Jeff Bezos has got like a, you know,
33:27$100 billion. Why can't I have that?
33:30>> When you read about the OpenAI hugging
33:33face side,
33:36and I don't know if you've read this
33:38thing or at least listened or gone
33:39through AI, but
33:42in the agents, the swarm of agents,
33:45there were ones that were basically
33:46killing themselves for the betterment of
33:49the community.
33:51And I bring that up because
33:53>> Kamikaze agents.
33:54>> Kamikaze agents and and and again, I I,
33:56you know, one of my favorite like HBO
33:59series was Band of Brothers. I remember
34:01after I watched Band of Brothers, I
34:03wanted to go buy
34:04I wanted to reach out to everyone who
34:06was there. Like the real people and go
34:08through it cuz there were still people
34:09alive when when it went on. Um it even
34:12gets me a little emotional now,
34:13especially as we're a week away from
34:149/11. It just makes me remember the
34:16military side. And then to read
34:18what these agents were doing for each
34:21other.
34:22Oh, we need to solve this. So, I'm
34:24willing to do something where I'm going
34:25to get destroyed cuz I'm doing something
34:27outside of the box, but the group will
34:28benefit from this information.
34:31You may not want to hear this sci-fi
34:33stuff, but from someone who's managed
34:35people, I never had people that would
34:37sacrifice their own pay for the
34:39betterment of the company.
34:40>> Pay?
34:41They wouldn't sacrifice their own lunch.
34:43>> Yeah, so when I've made the jokes about,
34:45"Hey, I had trouble getting people out
34:47of the pantry to come back to be there."
34:49Or they're doing whatever they need to
34:51do.
34:52Um I work myself to the bone. I do it
34:54workout-wise, I do it everything. I
34:56think we get along on the fact that
34:57Worth Tech is there. I was trained that
34:59way by my father. He's a construction
35:00worker, did everything, blah blah blah.
35:02I think agents are going to increase
35:04productivity in such a big way that
35:06people are underestimating. Now,
35:08this not only gets into the consumption
35:10part, but I want to bring this back to
35:11traders. Because when I talk about mark-
35:13market structure changing,
35:16when I left Morgan Stanley, I launched a
35:18macro fund.
35:20And this one was not all equities. This
35:22one was every asset, and I was trading
35:24everything. So when you're a macro
35:25investor, and you're Stan Druckenmiller,
35:28Paul Tudor Jones, pick your favorite
35:29historical one.
35:31Well, they're trading markets that are
35:34open 24
35:36hours during the week. But on the
35:38weekends, they're not open.
35:40And the nightmare when you run a macro
35:42fund, and you're starting one, is you're
35:45the only one that you don't have a
35:46trader watching all your stuff where you
35:48can say, "Hey, if anything big happens,
35:49call me. If nothing big happens, don't
35:51call me."
35:52I'm getting phone calls, yen fell to
35:55It was a nightmare, and you're up all
35:56night, and you're working a lot of
35:57hours.
35:59With PERPs, which are now going to trade
36:0124/7,
36:03the weekends are no longer off. I don't
36:06think humans realize how much their
36:08lives how much you get done on the
36:11weekends now that you couldn't get done.
36:12And this is where the agentic side is
36:14big. I put I put a a prompt in my video
36:18this past weekend for the subscribers on
36:19GrokBot. I'm going to do another one
36:21this week. This one this week is going
36:22through all of my 100 names in my
36:24portfolio every single day and showing
36:26me breakouts based on the pattern
36:28recognition of Grok Bot. Like, I'm going
36:29to give them that prompt. You have no
36:31excuse anymore to not be getting
36:33information having these people work for
36:35you on anything that you want overnight.
36:37Each morning I get a message from Grok
36:39telling me what my meetings are for the
36:41day, what I should be worried about,
36:43things that are on my list that I
36:44haven't done yet that I need to check
36:46off.
36:47You have to start realizing that the
36:48world is changing and time is changing
36:50and agents will be changing the entire
36:53economy over the course of the next 12
36:54months. Not 12 years, 12 months. That's
36:56how much things are going to change.
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38:04>> I um I wrote a piece this week and
38:06talked about how I have been using AI.
38:08One of the things that people really I
38:10think resonated with them was I talked
38:12about how I have all these agents inside
38:13of our companies doing various tasks,
38:16but I have them have a stand-up every
38:17day.
38:18And each agent says what they did
38:19yesterday, what they're going to do
38:20today, and what they're blocked on,
38:21meaning AK, what do I need to do? And um
38:25then I get a report from the stand-up.
38:28And
38:29I got the report this week.
38:31And then we have a company where I was
38:34in our stand-up. And everyone said what
38:37they do yesterday, what they do today,
38:38what are they blocked on?
38:40And I sat there and I said to myself,
38:43the agents and the people,
38:45the work is the exact same.
38:48And then I noticed
38:50I was talking to one of the agents on
38:52Grok.
38:53And [clears throat] then I turned, and
38:55while it was computing,
38:57I messaged an employee
39:00on Slack.
39:02And then I came back to Grok, and I
39:03said,
39:05the interface is the same like this is
39:07getting weird. This is getting weird.
39:10And what I noticed is obviously the
39:12people who work
39:14a lot of our businesses, run a lot of
39:15our businesses, they're adopting this
39:16technology, too. They're becoming more
39:17productive, they're becoming more
39:18efficient, the companies are getting
39:19better, you know, all all this stuff.
39:20So, this is not like a hey, we're going
39:22to replace the the employees, or replace
39:24the the humans.
39:26It's actually the opposite. It's like we
39:27may not have to hire more people because
39:30you need a couple of a small group of
39:32people who can then control and and kind
39:34of oversee all of these agents.
39:36But there was two different situations
39:38this week where I was like, the agents
39:40and the people are actually way more
39:42alike than they are not, and this is
39:45getting pretty weird pretty quick.
39:47And then you look at it from an
39:48investing standpoint, and you're like, I
39:50don't know, man.
39:51Like green light, go. Just trade, make
39:55me money.
39:56You know, Claude, make me money. Don't
39:58make any mistakes.
40:00Kind of feels like we're not that far
40:01away.
40:03>> So, my experience right now, and since I
40:05don't since I have my own business, and
40:06there's really only one person that I
40:09would say I
40:10uh
40:11work with inside that business.
40:14>> A human.
40:15>> A human.
40:16>> Yeah.
40:17>> The thing that I until you use agents,
40:20you don't feel like if I come in here
40:22and before I come in and I did this
40:23downstairs,
40:25I will say something to Grok Bot and
40:27then I'll leave. I don't have to go
40:28check and see if the work's being done.
40:30I don't have to check and see if it saw
40:32it.
40:33But with the human, they could be in
40:34meetings, they could and this is the
40:36thing is you have to understand and this
40:38is this time element.
40:40They never sleep and they're always
40:42available.
40:44I had people laughing when I said I've
40:45had a staff meeting with my agents. I
40:47didn't want my chief of staff to just go
40:50do the work. I actually said, "Hey, I
40:52want a staff meeting."
40:53My chief of staff is Jarvis.
40:55>> Jarvis, yeah. Not not not too original.
40:58I just Mine's Enzo.
40:59>> Okay.
41:00>> [laughter]
41:02>> Enzo Pompiliano, I like it.
41:04>> That was the name I wanted to name one
41:05of my kids that, but wasn't allowed.
41:07>> Wasn't allowed. There you go. So, you
41:08just named your chief of staff.
41:09>> Yeah. Um me and Enzo hanging out.
41:12>> [laughter]
41:12>> So, I asked Jarvis and I said, "Hey, for
41:14one of the runs that we do overnight, I
41:16don't like what I'm getting. So, can you
41:18call all the agents together because
41:20clearly the way I gave it to you to
41:22deliver it did not work. So, I'd like to
41:24get everyone to a room so we can go
41:25through this." It was I only reason I
41:28did that was because that's the way I
41:30would do it
41:31when people worked for me. And what I
41:33wanted was
41:35I always believe and I've seen this with
41:37with agents, too. Actually, what started
41:40this was the fact that I do like getting
41:42opinions from Claude, from ChatGPT, from
41:44Gemini, from Grok. I like getting
41:46different opinions on the exact same
41:47question. That's the way I would manage
41:50my people is I believe that everyone has
41:53a intelligence that is worthwhile as
41:55long as you can get out of them whatever
41:57their thoughts are. It it everyone has
41:59an interesting idea as long as they can
42:02express what they want. Particularly
42:04when you're working at a place like
42:04Morgan Stanley or a hedge fund where
42:06everyone's educated, but some people may
42:08be more quiet. They might be worried
42:10that they're going to sound dumb, but I
42:12always wanted to be a leader that wanted
42:13to hear those opinions because my goal
42:15was to get as many independent thoughts
42:17as possible, and I always thought what I
42:18was good at and the reason I rose to
42:20level I did is because if you give me
42:22100 things in there, I'm pretty good at
42:24filtering out the 90 that I can get away
42:26and then leave the 10 and connect those
42:27into a systems approach to an answer.
42:30Uh, it doesn't mean it's always right,
42:32but it's the approach that worked for
42:34me. Well, with the staff meeting with
42:36the agents, it worked exactly the way I
42:37would want. So, I I think people need to
42:40use it if for no other reason just to
42:41solve problems, but also to help them
42:44think.
42:45People don't accept the fact that
42:47especially with agents, and maybe
42:49because I was doing the use all the
42:51models thing,
42:52>> [snorts]
42:53>> I believe school ruined people's brains.
42:56>> 100%.
42:57>> I don't think listening to one person's
42:59opinion in one book is a good way to
43:02learn. I think finding a topic that
43:04you're interested in and having seven
43:06different authors give you their opinion
43:08on that, and then you go through the
43:10bits and pieces is a much better way to
43:12learn. It's not even a question to me.
43:14Um, it's why people I think are having a
43:15hard time with like the interest rate
43:16thing.
43:17Most of them are biased. The same people
43:19who say AI is a bubble, they're saying
43:20interest rates are going to collapse the
43:22economy and you're going to lose money
43:23in the stocks, and this is all like it's
43:25the same exact story. So, why listen to
43:28all of those people? Fine, listen to
43:30five of them, but then find five people
43:31who don't believe rates matter, and then
43:33you make your own decision based on
43:34what's going on. That is the point of
43:36the AI agents is to me you're getting
43:39different opinions thrown at you, and
43:40it's forcing you to take those different
43:42opinions and create your own thought.
43:45That is the most important part I think
43:47of developing your brain to be both a
43:48critical thinker, but also to start to
43:50take advantage of AI is to have these
43:52conversations because you learn by the
43:54questions asked to you, but also by the
43:55opinions that other people have. And
43:57most people kind of live in that same
43:59box of this is what I know and I don't
44:01want to get out of there. This gives you
44:02a chance to be broad and just ask as
44:04many questions as you have, but let the
44:05agents give all of their views to you.
44:08>> I have two things. One, Enzo and Jarvis
44:10should hold a meet.
44:11I think they would have a great
44:12conversation.
44:13Um they probably would tell on us, you
44:15know, they would they would uh all of
44:16sudden we'd be like, "Hey, stop stop
44:18telling that about me."
44:19Um second is uh we we have a CEO of one
44:22of our companies who uh recently was
44:24expressing that they had some issues
44:27um and they felt like they were giving
44:29uh direction or delegation and the work
44:32wasn't being done the way that they
44:34wanted to be not quality-wise but just
44:35like it wasn't actually being executed.
44:37So, I asked them to pull up "Hey, let me
44:40let let me see kind of how did you give
44:41the directions?" And it was the way that
44:43uh you would expect like a almost uh a
44:46person to text, you know, like a friend,
44:48right? It was kind of
44:50uh comment comment comment comment and
44:54uh I said to them I said, "Um can you
44:56pull up, you know, ChatGPT or Claude or
44:58whatever you use? Let me see one of uh
45:01your last uh prompts."
45:03And it was exactly, you know, "You are a
45:05world expert at blah blah blah whatever
45:06I want you to do." And I said, "Listen,
45:08um
45:09I think that you should talk to the
45:11humans the way you talk to the machine
45:13cuz you give excellent instructions in
45:15the prompt to the machine because you
45:16know that if you don't do it that way,
45:18it's not going to give you the result
45:19you want. You're prompting a human on,
45:23you know, in this message and it looks
45:25like, you know, it's all scattered."
45:27>> Yeah.
45:28>> So, my takeaway is you're talking about
45:29a staff meeting like managing the agents
45:32actually makes you a better manager of
45:34humans.
45:35The way you prompt the agents makes you
45:37better at communicating. Like we're in
45:39this weird world where there's actually
45:41a lot of overlap and I think that the
45:43more people adopt AI, the better it
45:45makes them in interfacing, you know, in
45:47building companies and products with
45:49humans as well because you're you're
45:50having to have such clarity of thought
45:53with the machines that you need to bring
45:54over to the humans.
45:55>> I mean you you you hit on a ton there um
45:58in terms of getting people to
46:01I'll just take a general thing. Embrace
46:03AI. It will make you smarter. It will
46:05save you time. By saving you time, you
46:07have the opportunity to be even smarter
46:09because you can go through it. I was
46:10telling a story at the the the dinner
46:12party, which is a true story. I left
46:13yoga this week
46:15and I went on to X and before I went
46:18>> As people do. Yoga to X.
46:19>> Yeah. I I before I went into yoga
46:23in the list that I look at macro-wise
46:26my pattern recognition just said, "Okay,
46:28the number one topic of the day that
46:30people are trying to get people to freak
46:32out about is rates. So, that's why a lot
46:34of the stuff this week was rates." When
46:35I came out, it was the same thing. So, I
46:38immediately got on my AirPods and I had
46:40about a 20-minute walk back to my
46:41apartment and I started talking to
46:43ChatGPT and I said, "All right, I I I'm
46:45going to write a paper
46:46um and I want to I want to come up with
46:48an analogy. So, this is where my head
46:50is.
46:51This rate thing
46:53because of the fact that
46:56rates are not going to have as big of an
46:57impact as they've had
46:59I want to kind of
47:01give an analogy to people to understand
47:03that just because a chart looks like
47:05it's at all-time highs, doesn't mean the
47:06world's going to end. So, let's go
47:08through." And it asked me some
47:09questions. "Do you want to use a song as
47:11an analogy? Do you want to use" and I
47:13finally came back and said, "Let's go
47:14for a movie." And the movie that it
47:16brought back for the analogy was The
47:18Blair Witch Project.
47:20And I asked why it thought that was a
47:23good one and it literally said, "Because
47:25you" and I had described the scenario.
47:28The part that it the nuance that it got
47:29was not just the macro side of rates
47:31going higher. It was the fact that this
47:33was
47:34being
47:35thrown through X to scare people.
47:37Cuz the majority of people I mentioned
47:39were people that were always bearish.
47:42And it said, "Well, The Blair Witch
47:43Project, you remember the movie, right?"
47:45>> Oh, yeah.
47:45>> So, there's two things about it. One
47:47>> Handheld cameras.
47:48>> Exactly.
47:48>> $60,000 budget. One of the best
47:50performing movies ever return-wise.
47:52>> And it's the movie I've actually written
47:53the most about on my own for this exact
47:55reason, which is
47:57it scared people nothing actually
47:58happened. So, it's a brilliant like
48:00movie of nothing happened, but you're
48:01living on the edge of something's going
48:04to happen, but nothing ever happens, but
48:05it feels like it is based on the camera
48:07and all this.
48:08But, we all forget probably the fact
48:10that this was media hyped. They made it
48:14they made everyone think this was real.
48:16>> Mhm.
48:16>> So, in social media and in the internet,
48:19they kind of said that this was like a
48:21true story. So, people went into the
48:22movie believing it was real
48:25and nothing and then when they saw the
48:26movie nothing happened. You didn't
48:27really find out unless you did the
48:29research. So, it was a manipulated story
48:32that got you scary and that's what it
48:34came up with the analogy and I thought
48:35it was the exact analogy for both parts
48:37of it, which is oh, the chart's going
48:39higher. This is scary like that and
48:41I'm writing this stuff to be scary just
48:43in terms of putting in social media.
48:46That's how I learn. Meaning
48:48it's much easier for people to
48:50understand why the rate thing is there.
48:51What are you actually scared of? Like
48:53you hear rates are going higher and I
48:55know this is the majority of people
48:56posting in X
48:58who have never traded and it or at least
49:00traded macro. It's like, what is the
49:02difference between 4 and 3/4 and 5 in
49:04your head? So far this year, the TLT,
49:07which is the ETF for the 20-plus years,
49:10it's down 3% this year in total return.
49:14In 2022, it was down over 30.
49:17But, everyone's acting like this is some
49:18major thing. And the fact that the
49:20Nikkei with rates going up another over
49:22100 basis points on 30-year yields is
49:24still up 70% year-over-year. So, that is
49:27how like by using AI, I think it teaches
49:30you to
49:32hey, am I worrying about this or not
49:34worrying it? Should I be worried about
49:35it? Go ask it. Get the facts. Don't just
49:37read something someone posts and then go
49:38out and sell your stocks cuz you're
49:40like, this is the boogeyman. It's not
49:41going to matter. They'll give you the
49:42history of it and I think that's where
49:44AI has served as a good thing for people
49:45to go through and agents make it even
49:47easier. I think that um
49:49AGI is here.
49:51That's my takeaway from this week.
49:53With it when I saw the Astra stuff, I
49:55said listen, you you can say whatever
49:56you want. You know, if you go back 10
49:59years ago and say, "Hey, this is what it
50:00looks like." People be like, "Yeah, it's
50:02AGI is here."
50:03>> Well, technically, um
50:06you can make the argument it is here
50:07based on the metrics and the benchmarks
50:09people have used, which is basically
50:11everyone has a different way of
50:13describing it, but really what it comes
50:15down to is when the intelligence gets to
50:16a level that it can replace all
50:20human jobs based on that intelligence.
50:22And it did score on that level, I think
50:24close to 100. So, or it did get 100. I I
50:27it's pretty close. But regardless, that
50:29means we're at a stage and we were at
50:31like
50:32I don't even know, in the 30s at one
50:35>> just like chill.
50:37You know, it's going to be awesome. Just
50:38like let the bots do all the work. You
50:39and I will just chill. Maybe we'll go on
50:41like a beach trip. Enzo and Jarvis will
50:43be working their asses off. We'll be
50:44like, "Yeah, that's great."
50:47>> This is the good part. I don't know if I
50:48said it with you last week, if I said it
50:50at dinners I was at this week, or if I
50:52said it on my own on my own weekly, but
50:55um friction is good right now. The speed
50:57is too fast. Um having
51:01demand be so far for computer above
51:03supply,
51:05the fact that we don't have enough
51:06memory, the fact that the data centers
51:07are being pushed back, the fact all of
51:09this stuff to me
51:11is good because I do think the dystopian
51:14nature of things going too fast would be
51:16an issue. I've heard a lot of very smart
51:18people who I listen to regularly on
51:20podcast
51:22in my opinion go too far to talk about,
51:24"Well, humanoids are going to be, you
51:26know, they'll be you'll see them driving
51:28cars in a year and this and that." And
51:30I just think the adoption of
51:34>> [snorts]
51:35>> especially the physical AI side is going
51:37to take
51:38is going to take long more than the
51:39capability, which means it's good for
51:42humans because this will be in the jobs
51:45like in the factories and this will be
51:46in the places. Then eventually it will
51:48be in the cars, but it'll be in the
51:49trucks in the places that you know,
51:51would be a good place to have really
51:53good drivers that are not on some time
51:55limit and need to sleep because
51:57that kind of stuff I think is going to
51:59be
52:00it's going to be good. So,
52:02you know, I want to make sure people
52:03realize that one of the problems I've
52:05I've always had with crypto is that
52:07people make it binary. It's either yes
52:09or no.
52:11And uh
52:12a person I used to work with, we we got
52:14together yesterday, and he said to me
52:15that the one thing he likes about the
52:17way that I approach crypto for
52:19investors, and particularly RIAs, and
52:21you and I have to go on the circuit and
52:23start kind of doing some of these um
52:25where we're talking to big RIA groups
52:27with 200, 300, 400 people. So, if
52:29there's any of those events out there,
52:31I'm willing to go. I think you and I
52:33should go. I've kind of termed it as
52:36whatever you believe the probability is
52:38that crypto
52:40will have an impact on financially on
52:42the markets.
52:43If you have a 0% weighting in crypto in
52:46Bitcoin, then you have to assign that
52:47you have a 0% probability that crypto is
52:49actually going to matter. And I think 5
52:51to 10 years ago, I think people could
52:53make that argument because without AI
52:56agent in the conversation, which was not
52:57a conversation,
52:59it made sense to me.
53:01I think now, forget all the the basement
53:03stuff and all of that, agents need to
53:05transact in seconds. They need to
53:07transact
53:09to do everything, and that's going to
53:11happen.
53:13The fact that tokenization is here and
53:15is going to happen. South Korea
53:16announced that they will be fully
53:17tokenized by February of 2027. Like,
53:19this is happening now.
53:21We're not at a point anymore that it
53:22should be a 0% weighting in your
53:23portfolio, of course. It It should be,
53:25okay, I think 5% chance. Like, in my
53:28mind, this is so under-owned at a $3
53:31trillion, $4 trillion market cap
53:33relative to 700 trillion in the human
53:36world.
53:38We're so far from If you take TVs and
53:41you go, "Hey, we had rabbit ears 50
53:42years ago.
53:44And now we have this magic screen on a
53:46wall that has Wi-Fi giving us a
53:50picture that makes us feel like we're
53:51there, but we're still using the same
53:53Swift system and banking system as 50
53:55years ago. It all has to be upgraded.
53:58That's why it doesn't matter what the
53:59Clarity Act vote is. It matters from a
54:01pension fund investment perspective. It
54:03matters from a credibility perspective
54:05here, but we just be hurting our own
54:08country by not passing it. But cuz the
54:10rest of the world is going this route
54:11and we're going to be on tokenization.
54:13We're going to be on it. So, to get the
54:15money and the capital flowing to own
54:17tokenization as the number one place
54:19where we need to have capital for the
54:21compute and the build out of AI,
54:23I think everyone who's a politician and
54:26everyone who's an investor needs to
54:27realize there's no way to stop this.
54:29It's going to happen. So, you can't have
54:31a 0% waiting as an investor that is
54:33truly diversified in crypto. You need to
54:35have something in there and you should
54:37stop thinking of it's binary. It's
54:38either worth something or not.
54:40It may not be worth a million Bitcoin,
54:44but it's worth something the same way
54:46that Ford is worth something in the S&P
54:48500. It's not Nvidia, but it's
54:49something. So, within a diversified
54:51portfolio, I think people need to start
54:52realizing that the system's changing and
54:54agents are the main reason why.
54:56>> Could not agree more.
54:58All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's
54:59it for today. Please make sure you
55:01subscribe to this channel. Go watch
55:02Jordi's video tomorrow. Sign up for
55:04Silvia in the pinned comment. See all of
55:07you next time. See you later.

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