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Bitcoin Finally Hits the 200 & 300 Day Moving Averages, XRP and Altcoin Market Wait Reaction, I'M IN — Transcript

by Blockchain Backer · 4,214 words · 589 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
  2. 0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
  3. 0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
  4. 0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
  5. 0:23at the Bitcoin price chart along with
  6. 0:25the total market cap of the
  7. 0:26cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin sits
  8. 0:29right back there at the 200 and 300 day
  9. 0:31moving average. This was very similar to
  10. 0:33what we did back in 2023 after our
  11. 0:36breadth opened off of our lows.
  12. 0:38Eventually our breadth closed and we saw
  13. 0:41a SVB scare or a banking scare that took
  14. 0:44us back down to the 200300 day moving
  15. 0:46average only for the market to reverse
  16. 0:48out of here. Right now, we sit right
  17. 0:50there at that 200 and 300 day. So, we'll
  18. 0:52dive into this stuff. We'll look at
  19. 0:54these recovery structures, see which
  20. 0:56ones we're really mimicking in here and
  21. 0:57if things are still on track. XRP, we'll
  22. 1:00take a peek over at this one as it's
  23. 1:01still within that accumulation range.
  24. 1:04And again, we'll point to that SVB
  25. 1:06behavior from back in 2023 with where
  26. 1:09we're at right now. We'll briefly talk
  27. 1:11about stocks. Semiconductors have been
  28. 1:13the story. It's what I wrote about in
  29. 1:14the newsletter on Halloween.
  30. 1:16Semiconductors were the main story in
  31. 1:18last week's stock market movement. Then
  32. 1:20of course Nvidia coming out with their
  33. 1:22nose this weekend. We'll check in on the
  34. 1:24IGV, which I think is the thing that's
  35. 1:26really going to dictate whenever we can
  36. 1:27actually get an expansion here in the
  37. 1:29cryptocurrency market. And of course,
  38. 1:31just paint the picture of what we've
  39. 1:32seen here over the last couple of days
  40. 1:34with another liquidation right there of
  41. 1:36over a billion dollars. The market's
  42. 1:37back in fear. And then we'll take a look
  43. 1:39over here at onchain losses to say, is
  44. 1:41anything out of line or is everything
  45. 1:43really still just what we've seen
  46. 1:45before? So, first things first, we've
  47. 1:47got Bitcoin back at the 200 and 300day
  48. 1:50moving average, sitting just a hair
  49. 1:52below that 50week moving average
  50. 1:54currently here at the beginning of the
  51. 1:56week. Now, we've spent time discussing
  52. 1:57these different types of recoveries and
  53. 1:59ranges and walls of worry. It's very
  54. 2:01difficult to see a clear picture in here
  55. 2:04on if we're on track in something like
  56. 2:06this right now for Bitcoin. Unless, of
  57. 2:09course, if we see a reaction come out
  58. 2:10that essentially just shoots it straight
  59. 2:12up in here like what we saw back in
  60. 2:142023. My thoughts are even if we do do
  61. 2:17it, it's still probably going to be
  62. 2:19rangebound throughout here until the IGV
  63. 2:22can go into its recovery. It'll probably
  64. 2:25get stuck. And then finally, once we get
  65. 2:27an escape, that's when we start looking
  66. 2:29for Bitcoin to go. Then we look for
  67. 2:30altcoins to go. You know the story.
  68. 2:32We've gone through this multiple times
  69. 2:33in recent videos. But really, that's
  70. 2:35exactly how 2023 played out in here.
  71. 2:38These drawings will kind of carry over
  72. 2:40into this chart as well, since it's the
  73. 2:41one I'm drawing on on the other page.
  74. 2:44But in here, this is really similar to
  75. 2:45how things ended up going is that we
  76. 2:47ended up doing a fivewave structure off
  77. 2:50of the lows. The breadth opened up for
  78. 2:52the market. I'll darken that up for us
  79. 2:54just a little bit. There we did a
  80. 2:56fivewave structure off of the lows. We
  81. 2:58did a deep pullback. That's the SVB
  82. 3:00scare that happened in there. Then, of
  83. 3:02course, prices pushed up. And then
  84. 3:04again, what were we? We were rangebound
  85. 3:06for some time in there. And of course,
  86. 3:08this is where the market was all scared
  87. 3:10for the next six months, thinking that
  88. 3:11we were still going to see 10 to 12,000
  89. 3:14for Bitcoin, even though 26,000 24,000
  90. 3:18was the floor that did end up holding.
  91. 3:20So, nothing's out of line here in
  92. 3:21regards to going down and hitting these
  93. 3:23moving averages. We've talked about this
  94. 3:25multiple times that this is a
  95. 3:26possibility if we're going to repeat
  96. 3:27things that we've seen before that
  97. 3:29that's a support level we've seen happen
  98. 3:31in here. Again, this is a type of
  99. 3:33environment where extreme fear starts to
  100. 3:35hit. I bet if this updated, this would
  101. 3:37say that we're in extreme fear within
  102. 3:39the market right now simply because we
  103. 3:41had a $1 billion liquidation that
  104. 3:43happened, but these are very intriguing
  105. 3:45prices in here and really precisely what
  106. 3:48we've seen before. So, we've talked
  107. 3:50about this with XRP over here, right?
  108. 3:52This is the fullblown bare markets. Lots
  109. 3:54of debate, of course, back in 2025 and
  110. 3:58early 2026 of people saying this isn't a
  111. 4:00bare market. We've just used bare market
  112. 4:02blueprints for the thing the whole time,
  113. 4:04which has made it psychologically much
  114. 4:06easier to navigate. But you look out
  115. 4:08there on crypto Twitter right now, it's
  116. 4:10essentially full-blown capitulation of
  117. 4:12psychology over there on Twitter for XRP
  118. 4:14right now. But even heading back to
  119. 4:16those discussions about 2023 and coming
  120. 4:18off the lows, the Brett 30B opening and
  121. 4:20the SVB Silicon Valley Bank scare,
  122. 4:23right? This is the same types of
  123. 4:25structures that we made at that time
  124. 4:26where we hit all the onchain losses,
  125. 4:29right? Here's your FTX collapse back in
  126. 4:322022 for Bitcoin. Then we go into the
  127. 4:35SVB scare where the support here gets
  128. 4:37taken out. Markets get absolutely
  129. 4:40petrified and then before we knew it,
  130. 4:42the thing reversed its way out of there.
  131. 4:44It's not that I want to call for
  132. 4:45something like that. XRP is very
  133. 4:47difficult when it comes to time. It
  134. 4:49loves to just torture you and do long
  135. 4:51duration pain and then very quickly it
  136. 4:54goes back to the other direction, goes
  137. 4:55up. But if this ended up happening,
  138. 4:57right, we would sit there and say, "Oh,
  139. 4:59yeah, okay. It was really just standard
  140. 5:01structural behavior in here." And it all
  141. 5:03kind of made sense because this all
  142. 5:05happened right during this type of
  143. 5:07moment for Bitcoin heading back and
  144. 5:09hitting these levels, which is really
  145. 5:11exactly how it went back in 2023. Now,
  146. 5:14of course, it's important for us to take
  147. 5:16in bigger time frame context on that
  148. 5:18because we can sit here and look at
  149. 5:19charts and say, "Well, here's a fractal
  150. 5:21that overlays that looks perfectly." But
  151. 5:22we have to understand the environment
  152. 5:24that we're coming out of, right? We're
  153. 5:25coming out of an environment where this
  154. 5:27market capitulated into oversold back in
  155. 5:29February of earlier this year. We know
  156. 5:32that's our capitulation. We know that's
  157. 5:34our capitulation back in 2022. Really
  158. 5:36back in June. This is actually where
  159. 5:38XRP, Ethereum, and Binancecoin all
  160. 5:40bottomed back in 2022, even though FTX
  161. 5:43didn't come until November. spot. We
  162. 5:45produce the bullish divergence in here
  163. 5:47on the relative strength index as the
  164. 5:49FTX collapse happens as we have the
  165. 5:51Michael Sailor selling story and the big
  166. 5:54liquidation of nearly $5 billion. And
  167. 5:56then of course it's that ricochet that
  168. 5:58comes out of here that we're paying
  169. 6:00attention to. So our larger time frame
  170. 6:02context is clearly that we've already
  171. 6:04hit the levels of what a capitulation
  172. 6:06would look like. We went through all of
  173. 6:08it live together. I'm just having to
  174. 6:10kind of do this for people who maybe are
  175. 6:11catching the channel for the first time
  176. 6:13in their last month or two or even just
  177. 6:14remind people who maybe are getting kind
  178. 6:16of caught in the moment that's happening
  179. 6:17in here. These are the environments
  180. 6:19we're coming out of on the longer term
  181. 6:21time frames. So, when we're discussing
  182. 6:22these types of things, we're talking the
  183. 6:24same types of elements. We're talking
  184. 6:26about breaking moving averages coming
  185. 6:27from oversolds. We're talking about
  186. 6:29leaving environments where we hit the
  187. 6:31most coins in a loss like we
  188. 6:32historically do at the bottom of each
  189. 6:34bare market. Right? So, if we're going
  190. 6:36to use that FTX comparison, those
  191. 6:38oversolds, those bullish divergences,
  192. 6:40and then those ricochets off those lows,
  193. 6:42we have to see that also in here. And of
  194. 6:43course, we do, right? We ended up
  195. 6:45hitting, you know, 10.6 million coins in
  196. 6:47a loss for Bitcoin here in the FTX
  197. 6:49collapse. Then, we end up recovering out
  198. 6:51of there and entering into our wall of
  199. 6:53worry. We end up hitting 10.8 million
  200. 6:55coins in a loss here in 2026. And then,
  201. 6:58of course, we pull all the way back down
  202. 6:59after, right? This is our large climb up
  203. 7:01in here, just like we had back in 2022.
  204. 7:04And then boom, we pull our way out. We
  205. 7:07can add on the supply and a loss and
  206. 7:08supply and a profit. We know, right? We
  207. 7:10get into this environment where more
  208. 7:12coins are in a loss and in a profit.
  209. 7:13Then that divergence happens away from
  210. 7:15each other again where more coins are in
  211. 7:17a profit than in a loss. That's where
  212. 7:19we're at currently right now. However,
  213. 7:21we can see that even though that bottom
  214. 7:23comes in, look, we do still have periods
  215. 7:25where we still have to climb back up
  216. 7:26where coins get into a loss again. We
  217. 7:28got to about 8 million there during the
  218. 7:30SVB scare, right? So that's that big
  219. 7:33push off of the lows. SVB scare comes
  220. 7:36in, we get to 8 million coins on a loss.
  221. 7:38Right now we're at about 8.4 million
  222. 7:40coins in a loss. This is all really just
  223. 7:42kind of standard stuff of after we get
  224. 7:44through the bottom going through this
  225. 7:45wall of worry kind of chop zone stuff.
  226. 7:47But we can see here even at 8.4 4
  227. 7:49million. Hey, we're very similar to like
  228. 7:51being an SVB, which of course is when we
  229. 7:54hit that 200 day moving average in there
  230. 7:56after we come off of the period where
  231. 7:58the breadth opened as it broke out above
  232. 8:00the 200 day moving average, right? The
  233. 8:03breath shuts, the breath shuts, and it
  234. 8:05comes back and it hits that 200 day
  235. 8:07moving average in there. So, I've made
  236. 8:08that comparison on X and in past videos.
  237. 8:11Really, just everything we're seeing
  238. 8:12really mimics that kind of time period
  239. 8:14in there. back testing the 200 day
  240. 8:16moving average and the 300 day moving
  241. 8:18average after escaping above them for
  242. 8:20the first time since we've been in a
  243. 8:22bare market. And then of course
  244. 8:24structurally on XRP's bottoming
  245. 8:26formation, it's really mirrored that
  246. 8:28exact period as well. And I remember
  247. 8:30when we were talking about this like in
  248. 8:31markets in the morning, people would ask
  249. 8:32me, you know, do you think it's going to
  250. 8:34end up breaking below there? And saying,
  251. 8:36I I don't know, right? Like an SVB, it
  252. 8:38does go in break below it and then it
  253. 8:40just immediately ricochets its way back
  254. 8:42up out of here. But right now, I see
  255. 8:44absolutely nothing saying that this
  256. 8:45isn't what's going on. For the last
  257. 8:47several months, we've looked at it
  258. 8:48through this lens of saying, "Hey, you
  259. 8:49know, where are we throughout here?" You
  260. 8:51know, are we within something like a
  261. 8:52recovery phase like this and then we're
  262. 8:55going to push up here and then have to
  263. 8:56range throughout in here for some time,
  264. 8:58right? Still think it's very reasonable
  265. 9:01we do because that's exactly what we did
  266. 9:03in 2023 that it ricocheted off here and
  267. 9:06then it ranged throughout in here. That
  268. 9:07if you ricochet off and range throughout
  269. 9:09in here, that wouldn't be abnormal. It
  270. 9:11would also really represent exactly what
  271. 9:14you would think would happen with XRP.
  272. 9:16So, I don't think we necessarily have
  273. 9:17anything broken here within this model
  274. 9:19of saying it still couldn't just
  275. 9:20ricochet up but still be stuck for some
  276. 9:23time. The alternative to that of what
  277. 9:25we've looked at, of course, is like
  278. 9:26XRPs, right? We made a lot of videos
  279. 9:29back in the time of comparing these
  280. 9:30things before we got this breakout of
  281. 9:32being like, hey, look, looking for like
  282. 9:34an ABC correction to show up in here.
  283. 9:36I'm sure a lot of you will remember
  284. 9:37that. um to push back up to this range
  285. 9:40boundary in here to push back up to this
  286. 9:41range boundary in here and then saying
  287. 9:43all right are we going to get a recovery
  288. 9:44that looks more like this or we be stuck
  289. 9:46in more something like what XRP did
  290. 9:48where it really kind of pulls back even
  291. 9:50deeper right now it feels kind of
  292. 9:51blended between the two it's not like
  293. 9:53we're as deep as XRP nor are we as
  294. 9:55shallow as what we would be within here
  295. 9:58but what you can clearly see in here as
  296. 10:00well is that even in this model right
  297. 10:01what do we find support at the 200 and
  298. 10:03300 day moving average which of course
  299. 10:06is where we're at right now So, in the
  300. 10:08end, what are we trying to do? We're
  301. 10:09trying to find where support levels will
  302. 10:11be within a range and context. The data
  303. 10:13still all suggests we're beyond the
  304. 10:15bottom for Bitcoin. We don't have
  305. 10:17periods in time in any past cycle where
  306. 10:20we go oversold, produce our bullish
  307. 10:22divergence, and then pop our way out of
  308. 10:24there, and then go on to set a new low.
  309. 10:26Even in 2019 through 2020's extreme push
  310. 10:29of going from 3K up to 14K and then all
  311. 10:32the way back to 4K, still that bottom
  312. 10:35held. Even with that extreme push where
  313. 10:37essentially 3, four, 5x's off of the
  314. 10:39lows, we don't go and set a new low back
  315. 10:42in 2022 and 2023. We don't set a new low
  316. 10:45in 2015. We don't set one in 2012. They
  317. 10:48all end up holding. But what doesn't
  318. 10:51change is sentiment, right? We go
  319. 10:52through a period where nobody really
  320. 10:54believes. Everybody's really beaten down
  321. 10:55because this thing has gone on for a
  322. 10:57very long time. But it's really not
  323. 10:59acting in any way abnormally to what we
  324. 11:02historically do see within the market. I
  325. 11:04remember going through this back in 2023
  326. 11:07and how sentiment ended up reacting in
  327. 11:09here is right now, right? We got the the
  328. 11:12fear probably extreme fear happening
  329. 11:14over there in the market. You have
  330. 11:15pessimism over there on X. But man, I
  331. 11:18remember it very clearly how quickly
  332. 11:20that can change. I think that's one of
  333. 11:23the reasons why I've talked about it so
  334. 11:24much throughout in here is saying, "Hey,
  335. 11:26look, sentiment will flip again." right
  336. 11:28now sentiment everybody's kind of
  337. 11:29bickering at each other and questioning
  338. 11:31their narratives and their belief
  339. 11:32systems over there on X. Uh but to
  340. 11:35remind you of how absolutely ludicrous
  341. 11:37and dumb uh the crowd sentiment can be,
  342. 11:41uh we went from being in extreme fear
  343. 11:43that everything was coming to an end to
  344. 11:45then everybody believing that Bitcoin
  345. 11:48was going to go to a million dollars in
  346. 11:4990 days. If you guys recall that, uh you
  347. 11:52could probably search it up yourself.
  348. 11:53The crowd sentiment was literally that
  349. 11:55Bitcoin was going to a million dollars
  350. 11:57in 90 days. And it was this big thing
  351. 11:59happening, content creation, giving it
  352. 12:01huge attention because one person came
  353. 12:04up with it and wrote this huge thesis on
  354. 12:06it and everybody gave it a bunch of
  355. 12:08attention and people believed in it
  356. 12:09because Euphoria returned that quickly.
  357. 12:12But if you look at this through a
  358. 12:13technical lens and a data lens, where do
  359. 12:16you see that you're at? certainly are
  360. 12:17coming out of the oversold environment
  361. 12:19of capitulation taking place 9 months
  362. 12:22ago. The bullish divergences off the
  363. 12:25lows. Now we're all just trying to
  364. 12:27figure out where can this thing catch
  365. 12:29the bottom after its first fivewave
  366. 12:33impulse off of the lows. Right? That's
  367. 12:35really exactly what happened back in
  368. 12:382023. So very interesting price levels
  369. 12:40to be at currently this morning. very
  370. 12:43symbolic of what we did back during SVB
  371. 12:45where we go back to about 8 million
  372. 12:47coins in a loss currently at 8.4 for the
  373. 12:50total market cap and Bitcoin both sit
  374. 12:53back down here at the moving averages.
  375. 12:55As you guys know, we did it live
  376. 12:57throughout all of this. Back in
  377. 12:58September, first exits from the market,
  378. 13:00more exits there in October. Finally
  379. 13:03started re-entering in the market here
  380. 13:04during the capitulation back in
  381. 13:06February, entering 25%, entered another
  382. 13:0925% with daily auto accumulations of 2%
  383. 13:12per day there in February. And then once
  384. 13:14we got down in here in June and right
  385. 13:16there to the beginning of July, daily
  386. 13:18auto accumulations of 1% per day for 30
  387. 13:21days, adding 30 more% here, putting at
  388. 13:2380% total entered. It's been just a
  389. 13:26constant little clip clip clip clip clip
  390. 13:28adding in throughout in here. I don't
  391. 13:31know. It seems good enough to me. I'm
  392. 13:33going to go ahead and do it. I'm going
  393. 13:34to go ahead and enter in my last capital
  394. 13:36right now as I'm making this video. All
  395. 13:38right. I just executed it in my
  396. 13:39brokerage account. Let's write a tweet.
  397. 13:41Here we go. We'll build this chart. Go
  398. 13:42ahead and put it in here. With Bitcoin
  399. 13:44back at the 200 day and 300 day moving
  400. 13:46average, this is good enough for me for
  401. 13:47my cyclical accumulation. I'm now fully
  402. 13:49entered into crypto for the cycle. Wish
  403. 13:51me luck. And post. Done. And done. So,
  404. 13:54there you have it. Don't follow me
  405. 13:55blindly. I'm following data. I'm making
  406. 13:57my guesses based on data. But anytime I
  407. 13:59make major moves, I always share it with
  408. 14:00you guys. If I do well, you know it. If
  409. 14:02I get wrecked, you know it, too. The
  410. 14:03hardest part about holding on to that
  411. 14:05last 20% was figuring out where am I
  412. 14:07going to end up putting it in there.
  413. 14:08There's so many levels that could end up
  414. 14:10holding at. But I think in my head I
  415. 14:11told myself, if we ever end up getting
  416. 14:14that type of moment to show up in there,
  417. 14:16that's really the last thing that I
  418. 14:17could like technically do, right?
  419. 14:19Otherwise, I could just go find it
  420. 14:21really anywhere and there won't really
  421. 14:23be a very particular moment for me to
  422. 14:26say it. um considering that I've gotten
  423. 14:28my entries and so while with 80% now
  424. 14:31being 20% here, I think my average
  425. 14:33probably sits right there. But I'm just
  426. 14:35not convinced that we have to go there
  427. 14:37by any means necessary considering we're
  428. 14:39already at 8.4 million. Coin's on a loss
  429. 14:41over there on Bitcoin. Very similarly to
  430. 14:43like what SVB happened when we already
  431. 14:45went back to 8 million. We're back at
  432. 14:47the 200300 day moving average. I'm just
  433. 14:49willing to take my shot here. So that
  434. 14:5120% was much more of a nuance than the
  435. 14:54first 80% was. is that first 80% was
  436. 14:56practically brainless, thoughtless. I
  437. 14:59don't know why this 20% was much more
  438. 15:01difficult, but it was. And that's
  439. 15:02probably what it was like for people who
  440. 15:04were completely sidelined down in here
  441. 15:06and how difficult that would be to
  442. 15:07handle a whole portfolio up in here. It'
  443. 15:09be very difficult. Either way, seems
  444. 15:11like we're at the places where things
  445. 15:13could hold at. I've got my full position
  446. 15:15of crypto now. Now, we just wait for IGV
  447. 15:18to round itself out. make things obvious
  448. 15:20in here as the loss of faith comes over
  449. 15:23there in the semiconductor sector which
  450. 15:25has really been the breadth
  451. 15:27consolidation of the stock market for
  452. 15:29the last several years. I'm not going to
  453. 15:30get into the personal details of the CEO
  454. 15:33of Nvidia, but obviously he released
  455. 15:35something. You can Google that yourself.
  456. 15:36It's almost like magical unicorn fairy
  457. 15:38dust that I put out a whole newsletter
  458. 15:40that is just constantly about
  459. 15:42semiconductors and the S&P 500 and
  460. 15:44Nvidia being the top spot of, you know,
  461. 15:46the S&P and the semiconductors. And then
  462. 15:49it less than a week later, I guess a
  463. 15:51little bit over, I guess a week later,
  464. 15:53big controversy with the CEO of Nvidia,
  465. 15:56uh, after the technical structures had
  466. 15:58already implied something was wrong with
  467. 16:00the semiconductors. So this obviously
  468. 16:02was the marking point in here for the
  469. 16:04reversal of Bitcoin versus the
  470. 16:06semiconductors where they swallowed all
  471. 16:08the breadth. Now we're looking for some
  472. 16:10follow through over here on Bitcoin uh
  473. 16:12to take the show back and crypto to take
  474. 16:14the show back. So we'll see how this
  475. 16:15goes over here for crypto. Obviously I
  476. 16:18would love to see this hold after
  477. 16:19entering in the last of my capital. If
  478. 16:21it does end up breaking below here or
  479. 16:23something like that, we kind of have to
  480. 16:25start at the drawing board on how the
  481. 16:26bottoming structure is going to play out
  482. 16:28in here for this pullback. Again, it's
  483. 16:30not going to change any of my beliefs on
  484. 16:32the bottom already being in because all
  485. 16:34of our data implies it, right? It would
  486. 16:36have to be something very technically
  487. 16:37different for Bitcoin to set a new low
  488. 16:39at this point. I think the new low for
  489. 16:41Q4 argument is not based on any type of
  490. 16:44technical. It's just an attempt to be a
  491. 16:45time predictor. I think all data will be
  492. 16:48ignored as well. I think everybody's
  493. 16:49very behind on where this market is.
  494. 16:51This is clearly our top of the market
  495. 16:53just like we did back in here. And our
  496. 16:55actual peak of the cycle occurred here
  497. 16:58uh not here during our up thrust after
  498. 17:00distribution. So I think we're scooted
  499. 17:01forward about 3 or 4 months than what
  500. 17:04people may think. So we'll play it by
  501. 17:05ear as we go. Uh but this was the level
  502. 17:07I always told myself if we ever got back
  503. 17:09in here on something like this. There's
  504. 17:12just no reason for me to hedge myself as
  505. 17:14a content creator and and play the whole
  506. 17:17game of Oh, by the way, I entered in my
  507. 17:18capital and didn't tell you about it.
  508. 17:19Nah, we're in, man. Let's do it. So
  509. 17:21we'll see how things go from here. We'll
  510. 17:23keep our eyes on it for the next couple
  511. 17:24of days. Historically, when we see
  512. 17:26reactions come out of these levels, they
  513. 17:28do actually come out violently to the
  514. 17:30upside. It's just whether or not it's
  515. 17:32going to do it right from here at this
  516. 17:34exact moment in time or if it's going to
  517. 17:35take a few days, if it's going to step
  518. 17:36down a couple more dollars or not. But
  519. 17:38typically, the reaction that pulls out
  520. 17:40of this environment we're in right now
  521. 17:41is usually pretty aggressive to the
  522. 17:43upside. And I'm placing my guesses on it
  523. 17:45that it will. So, I can't believe it.
  524. 17:48Here we are, November 9th of 2026. It
  525. 17:50was there in September and October of
  526. 17:532025 uh when all those exits were being
  527. 17:55made. But here we are on November 9th of
  528. 17:582026 stating uh I've got my full
  529. 18:00position in crypto now. I've got all the
  530. 18:03capital I want allocated to crypto in
  531. 18:05the market. So all right, there we go
  532. 18:07guys. I'll catch up with you soon. I
  533. 18:09hope these things were helpful for you a
  534. 18:10little bit. Again, painting that picture
  535. 18:12of where we're at. We've hit those
  536. 18:13onchain losses cycllically. We've hit
  537. 18:15the technicals of being beyond the
  538. 18:17bottom cycllically. Now, we're just all
  539. 18:19trying to make our best guesses on where
  540. 18:21is this pullback going to stop at. I
  541. 18:23think the thing that everybody still has
  542. 18:25their time expectations wrapped around
  543. 18:27is that anytime we move to the upside,
  544. 18:29we're going to shoot to all-time highs
  545. 18:30really quickly. Again, that picture is
  546. 18:32going to really depend on macro, which
  547. 18:33we're going to have to focus on that
  548. 18:34even if we pull up out of this range
  549. 18:36quickly, it still doesn't imply we're
  550. 18:38ready to shoot to the moon yet. We're
  551. 18:39going to go back to focusing on the
  552. 18:41macro picture. But the prices we're at
  553. 18:43very right right now are very
  554. 18:44intriguing. So, all right, I'll quit my
  555. 18:46rambling, guys. Thank you so much for
  556. 18:47watching. And I hope you had a wonderful
  557. 18:48weekend. You can check out the
  558. 18:50newsletter that I published last weekend
  559. 18:51over here on
  560. 18:52blockchainbacker.subsack.com
  561. 18:54titled fueling crypto's next expansion
  562. 18:56with semiconductors and the S&P 500
  563. 18:59topping historical extreme concentration
  564. 19:01could unwind into opportunity for
  565. 19:02software and crypto. It includes a
  566. 19:0443minute audio recording in here where I
  567. 19:06do voice record all of these after I put
  568. 19:09them together. There's a link down here
  569. 19:10in the description of this video to the
  570. 19:12newsletter at
  571. 19:13blockchainbacker.substack.com
  572. 19:14substack.com or you can just go directly
  573. 19:16within your browser. Otherwise, guys,
  574. 19:18welcome back to the 200 and 300 day
  575. 19:20moving average. We'll see how it goes
  576. 19:22throughout the rest of the week. All
  577. 19:23right, that's it. Thank you so much for
  578. 19:24watching. If you could please like this
  579. 19:26video and give it a thumbs up. If you
  580. 19:28are new to the channel, please subscribe
  581. 19:30and hit the notification bell so you can
  582. 19:31be notified of when I create new content
  583. 19:33and when I go live. As always, this is
  584. 19:36not investment advice and I am not a
  585. 19:37financial adviser, but if you ever need
  586. 19:40a pickme up or a little bit of
  587. 19:41reassurance, just remember that the
  588. 19:43blockchain backers got your back. Have a
  589. 19:46good one.

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