Bitcoin Falls to the Bull Market Support Band — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
2. 0:02into the cryptoverse.
3. 0:04Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin
4. 0:07as it has now reached the 20week moving
5. 0:10average. So it is fully within the bull
6. 0:13market support band. If you guys like
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8. 0:17the channel, give the video a thumbs up,
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15. 0:31already uh have one. Let's go ahead and
16. 0:34jump in. So, Bitcoin has tagged 70.
17. 0:38Let's see where it went. It went to
18. 0:40around 73.5. Okay.
19. 0:43Now, coincidentally, that's essentially
20. 0:45where the 20week moving average sits.
21. 0:47And I don't know if you guys remember,
22. 0:49but a few weeks ago, one of the things
23. 0:51we said was we're like, look, the NASDAQ
24. 0:53was already at the bull market support
25. 0:54band. the S&P was already at the bull
26. 0:57market support band. Um, you know, you
27. 1:00had Ethereum already added. If you have,
28. 1:02if you look at Total 3, it was already
29. 1:04at the bull market support band and so
30. 1:05was Total 2. So, the argument was, well,
31. 1:08Bitcoin's probably going to go there,
32. 1:10too. And you can see that it has. And
33. 1:14so, so my guess as to what's going to
34. 1:16happen is, you can kind of see it on the
35. 1:19chart, right? You can see it in the
36. 1:20other charts as well. And we'll go
37. 1:22through it. Look at Bitcoin here. You
38. 1:24see how it tagged first the 21week EMA
39. 1:27and then it bounced. Look at it on the
40. 1:29daily. So as it goes down, it kind of
41. 1:32tags these important levels and then
42. 1:33bounces off of them for a little bit. So
43. 1:36you can see here, first it tagged the
44. 1:3721week EMA, bounced off of it, and then
45. 1:40dropped and then it kind of just dropped
46. 1:42straight down to the 20week SMA. Now
47. 1:43it's bouncing a little bit. We actually
48. 1:45saw a lot of other markets do the same.
49. 1:47So if you look at Ethereum for instance,
50. 1:50you can see that it it dropped first
51. 1:53tagged the 21week EMA, bounced, tagged
52. 1:55it again, bounced again, and then it to
53. 1:58the 20we, another bounce, and then now
54. 2:01it's below the 20we. And you can see the
55. 2:03same thing on the NASDAQ, right? You
56. 2:06first drop down to one, uh, you drop
57. 2:08down to the other, you kind of bounce
58. 2:10around them, but then you give it away.
59. 2:11So my guess and it should come as no
60. 2:14surprise,
61. 2:16but my guess is that Bitcoin will lose
62. 2:18the bull market support band and the
63. 2:21reasoning behind it
64. 2:23is just simply because we are still sort
65. 2:26of in this Q4 window of weakness for
66. 2:29Bitcoin in the midterm year. Um, and you
67. 2:33know, we're still arguably within the
68. 2:35correction of the NASDAQ, right? If you
69. 2:37look at the NASDAQ, we've talked a lot
70. 2:39about what would take Bitcoin down would
71. 2:42be a correction in equities. And that
72. 2:45seems like spoton, right? Like I mean,
73. 2:47as many people have pointed out, Bitcoin
74. 2:49has held up fairly well. Uh but a lot of
75. 2:52times when people start saying Bitcoin's
76. 2:53holding up well, it it often precedes a
77. 2:57drop, right? And and this is kind of
78. 2:58what happened a couple of weeks ago.
79. 3:00People are like, "Well, Bitcoin's
80. 3:00holding up well considering that the
81. 3:02stock market is dropping and the
82. 3:03NASDAQ's dropping." But then you can see
83. 3:05that Bitcoin, you know, really starts to
84. 3:07give it back as we as we continue on.
85. 3:10So to me, the most likely outcome here
86. 3:14and what I think's happening is Bitcoin
87. 3:18is sort of just stairstepping down,
88. 3:20right? Like it's it's dropping and then
89. 3:24people panic and then they they they
90. 3:26sell and then we rally back up and then
91. 3:28people buy back in and it just kind of
92. 3:30keeps repeating itself. And I'm going to
93. 3:32guess that it's just something simply
94. 3:33going to keep repeating itself for a
95. 3:35little while longer. I mean, you know,
96. 3:37my argument is that, you know, the
97. 3:40usually there's some type of drop in Q4
98. 3:43of midterm years that leads to, you
99. 3:45know, this larger capitulation that
100. 3:47happens. Um, that's what we've seen, you
101. 3:49know, in prior midterm years. We even
102. 3:51had one time where it actually went into
103. 3:52the beginning part of the following
104. 3:53year. That was back in 2015. But from
105. 3:57the weekly, right, if if you ignore the
106. 4:00bull market support band, which I mean
107. 4:01it's just a moving average, but if you
108. 4:03ignore it, one of the things to note is
109. 4:06that
110. 4:08we've given back right completely the
111. 4:10May high. So to me, this is just
112. 4:13continued confirmation that this is just
113. 4:15nothing more than a fake out to convince
114. 4:17people that this time is different. uh
115. 4:19when it's not, you know, and I I've seen
116. 4:22some people say, "Well, why why do I
117. 4:24have to have this attitude about the
118. 4:26markets?" And, you know, I don't really
119. 4:27want to be this way to be completely
120. 4:29honest. Like, I I' I'd rather um you I'd
121. 4:33rather relive 2020 and 2021 where we
122. 4:36were all just sort of blindly bullish.
123. 4:38But that's just not the regime that
124. 4:39we're in, you know? Like, it's just not.
125. 4:41And I don't I don't control the rules. I
126. 4:44don't I mean, I don't control what macro
127. 4:45regime we're in. I don't control, you
128. 4:47know, the midterm year and what normally
129. 4:49happens in Q4. And I'm just trying to
130. 4:51communicate to you guys the most likely
131. 4:52outcome. I will say emotionally
132. 4:55speaking, I know a lot of people have
133. 4:57had a hard time with this drop because
134. 4:59I've had a lot of people reach out and,
135. 5:01you know, often times they'll they'll
136. 5:03panic and they'll sell lows and then
137. 5:05they'll get upset when it rallies back
138. 5:07up and then it'll drop again. They're
139. 5:08like, "Oh, okay, good, good. I was
140. 5:11right." And then they get they panic
141. 5:13again when it goes up.
142. 5:16As I said, if you're going to sell
143. 5:17Bitcoin, I mean, I thought the main the
144. 5:19time to sell it was Q4 last year. Um,
145. 5:23I mean, if you're selling it now on on
146. 5:25down days, it might work out in the
147. 5:27short term. Uh, for sure, right? I'm not
148. 5:30going to pretend like it can't, but you
149. 5:32know, that's not the strategy that I've
150. 5:33communicated, right? That's your own
151. 5:35strategy that you're kind of coming up
152. 5:36with because you're getting spooked by
153. 5:38daily moves in the market.
154. 5:42I told you guys a long time ago, my base
155. 5:44case, a February low,
156. 5:47summer low, and a Q4 low. And I think
157. 5:51we're still kind of seeking out the Q4
158. 5:54low. I I I don't think it's been found
159. 5:57yet. Um, so those are my views. Um, and
160. 6:03you know, if you look at Bitcoin here on
161. 6:05the weekly, it actually closed back
162. 6:08below the 50we moving average as well.
163. 6:11So, I mean, this is a big deal. I'll
164. 6:13probably do maybe another video on that
165. 6:15tomorrow, sort of dedicated to that to
166. 6:17talk about that and what that looks
167. 6:18like. But this is the thing about
168. 6:20breakouts above the 50week moving
169. 6:22average is that if you don't really
170. 6:24extend above it like we did in 2019 and
171. 6:272023, then it then it is just a false
172. 6:30breakout. And I I can't tell you how
173. 6:33many people
174. 6:35have, you know, came to me and like,
175. 6:36well, why are you ignoring this break
176. 6:37above the 50w week? I was like, look,
177. 6:39when it happened in 2019
178. 6:42and 2023, when we broke above it, we
179. 6:44immediately went like another 30% up,
180. 6:47right? like it was a massive breakout.
181. 6:49This was not right. Like it just
182. 6:50extended 10% or so, maybe a little bit
183. 6:53more, and then gave it right back. So,
184. 6:57there are a lot of people that were
185. 6:58convinced. Absolutely. And every single
186. 7:01time we wake up, they're more convinced.
187. 7:04But the problem is that, you know, from
188. 7:07a macro perspective, the same macro
189. 7:10issues are still there. And
190. 7:13additionally, if you look at some of the
191. 7:15other charts that we've sort of
192. 7:16mentioned a few times, one of the ones I
193. 7:19like to look at is what Bitcoin does
194. 7:21going into some of these IPOs, you can
195. 7:22see that Bitcoin is actually tracking
196. 7:24what it did going into the SpaceX IPO,
197. 7:26just like it is going to the into the
198. 7:28anthropic IPO. And from a fundamental
199. 7:31point of view, it makes a lot of sense,
200. 7:33right? Like people are potentially
201. 7:35selling liquid assets to free up capital
202. 7:39to go buy the anthropic IPO. Now, that
203. 7:41might not make sense to you, but people
204. 7:43do that, right? I mean, people do that.
205. 7:45They they they want to buy into these
206. 7:47companies. And I don't think you could
207. 7:49necessarily blame people for, you know,
208. 7:51for wanting to sell assets to go buy
209. 7:54something they're maybe bullish on long
210. 7:56term. You know, it kind of makes sense.
211. 7:58And then if you look at what Bitcoin has
212. 7:59normally done in September of a midterm
213. 8:03year after a rate hike and you look at
214. 8:05this year compared to the average, you
215. 8:08know, I mean, we're actually holding up
216. 8:09better than average right now. So, and
217. 8:11if you just look at what Bitcoin
218. 8:12normally does after a rate hike, the
219. 8:14first rate hike in a rate hiking cycle,
220. 8:16you can see normally Bitcoin is sort of
221. 8:18bounces and then drops into day like 58
222. 8:22or so on average. Bounces and then drops
223. 8:24again into day 94. We're currently on
224. 8:28day 54. So, day 94 would be in about
225. 8:34December. And coincidentally
226. 8:36in 20
227. 8:38[laughter] in 2018,
228. 8:42Bitcoin bottomed
229. 8:44um about mid December, which is also
230. 8:47around the time of the next Fed meeting,
231. 8:50right? And I've said before, I mean,
232. 8:51maybe the next Fed meeting marks around
233. 8:53the time for the low uh for for Bitcoin
234. 8:57because people are getting spooked about
235. 8:58these rate hikes, but then maybe that's
236. 9:00the last rate hike that we get for a
237. 9:01while. Anyways, those are my views.
238. 9:03Hopefully this has been helpful. If you
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