Bitcoin: Dooobious Spookulation — Transcript

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1. 0:00Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
2. 0:02into the cryptoverse.
3. 0:04Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin
4. 0:08dubious
5. 0:09spookulation. If you guys like the
6. 0:12content, make sure you subscribe to the
7. 0:14channel, give the video a thumbs up, and
8. 0:16also check out the upcoming ITC
9. 0:18conference that'll be taking place in
10. 0:21just about 3 weeks or so. We did just
11. 0:24release the agenda for the conference.
12. 0:26So if you want to take a look at that,
13. 0:28just head on over to the uh to the
14. 0:30website and and you can read what it is,
15. 0:33right? Just scroll down and you'll see
16. 0:35that we have released the agenda, right?
17. 0:37We have um you know, sort of the arrival
18. 0:39time. Uh we'll do the welcome and
19. 0:42introduction. We have a few different
20. 0:43speakers on Friday night.
21. 0:46Um and and then of course the main
22. 0:48conference day is is Saturday and I will
23. 0:53be doing sort of an initial talk called
24. 0:55investing through the cycles and then
25. 0:57we'll have a real you know a full agenda
26. 1:00you know really throughout the entire
27. 1:01day and then after the conference we'll
28. 1:03then have the afterparty for uh everyone
29. 1:06who's there at the uh at the conference.
30. 1:08So if you guys want to get your tickets
31. 1:09make sure you get them. Uh we're going
32. 1:11to raise uh ticket prices on November
33. 1:132nd. I'll give you guys an extra day to
34. 1:16get them at the current prices. I know
35. 1:18we're kind of releasing the agenda late,
36. 1:20but let's go ahead and jump in. So, so
37. 1:21Bitcoin is at around 778,000.
38. 1:24And one of the things that we talked
39. 1:27about uh last week, two things really,
40. 1:31right? What we said was when you get the
41. 1:34second weekly close below 83K, right?
42. 1:38below 83 which was you know sort of from
43. 1:40the from the May high. You have your
44. 1:42first close and then your second close
45. 1:45and then normally when you get that it's
46. 1:47going to convince certainly a lot of
47. 1:49people that this was in fact a fake out
48. 1:51and we should find ourselves at the bull
49. 1:53market support band really soon and you
50. 1:54can see that Bitcoin has already made it
51. 1:56there. One of the reasons why we
52. 1:58speculated dubiously of course was that
53. 2:01last week total two
54. 2:05was already at the bull market support
55. 2:07band. Total 3 was at the bull market
56. 2:10support band. Total was not, but that's
57. 2:12because it includes Bitcoin. And then if
58. 2:14you look at other indices like the S&P
59. 2:17500, that was already at the bull market
60. 2:19sport band last week. The NASDAQ was
61. 2:21already at the bull market sport band
62. 2:22last week. Micro Strategy was at the
63. 2:24bull market support band last week. And
64. 2:26so it made sense to assume that Bitcoin
65. 2:29would get there. And in fact, it has.
66. 2:31Now,
67. 2:32because this is called, you know, more
68. 2:35of the the Halloween, right, scary uh
69. 2:38stuff, I I do want to remind people
70. 2:40that, you know, not to be complacent. I
71. 2:44know there's a lot of views out there,
72. 2:47rightfully so, uh that would call a
73. 2:50pullback here and say that's all you're
74. 2:54going to get. And they could be right.
75. 2:56right? They could be right. Perhaps that
76. 2:58is is ultimately what happens. In my
77. 3:01experience though, when you have a high
78. 3:04and you take out that high to the upside
79. 3:07and then you give it back on multiple
80. 3:09candle closes. Historically, there's a
81. 3:12there's precedent for that just simply
82. 3:14being a fake out and then you go to the
83. 3:16range lows, right? That's what we've
84. 3:18seen happen before. Uh we saw it happen
85. 3:21in 2015,
86. 3:23right? is if you look at at 2015, we had
87. 3:25a very similar setup in fact where you
88. 3:27had a high and then you sort of tested
89. 3:31the high, right? You had one weekly
90. 3:34close below the below it and then your
91. 3:36second and then the next week we went to
92. 3:39the bullmark swan, right? The week after
93. 3:41that
94. 3:43we stayed at the bull mark and the week
95. 3:45after that marked the capitulation low
96. 3:48where Bitcoin dropped like 40% in a
97. 3:51single week. I remember it because it
98. 3:52was brutal and back then we didn't know
99. 3:55this thing was ever coming back, right?
100. 3:57Like we did uh in in later cycles where
101. 4:00we were more confident that it would.
102. 4:01back then it really didn't seem like it
103. 4:04would uh you know with that with that
104. 4:07drop especially so late in the cycle cuz
105. 4:08by that point by that point with the new
106. 4:11low
107. 4:12you know the bare market back then if
108. 4:15you just take it to the January low was
109. 4:17about 59 weeks but that actually
110. 4:19extended it to about 90 weeks right with
111. 4:21that with that capitulation up so that's
112. 4:22one example and then if you look at 2019
113. 4:262020 especially if you ignore the wicks
114. 4:28you can see we also took out a prior
115. 4:30high, got below it, and then had that
116. 4:33massive capitulation back down. So, it's
117. 4:35not like we haven't had periods where
118. 4:37there are fake outs. Even in 2022, we
119. 4:40had a high, got above it, spent a little
120. 4:43bit of time below above it, got back
121. 4:46below it, barely, consolidated,
122. 4:49yes, had a spike back up, but ultimately
123. 4:51we we we fell down. So, we've had fake
124. 4:53outs before, and that's what makes it
125. 4:56scary, right? is because normally when
126. 4:58you have a fake out it doesn't resolve
127. 5:00in the same way in the right in the way
128. 5:01that a lot of people want it to to the
129. 5:03upside and one of the things that I I
130. 5:06think is is is difficult is from a TA
131. 5:11perspective like some of the
132. 5:13longerstanding technical analysis of a
133. 5:16lot of people who
134. 5:19you know might have good track records
135. 5:20that rely on certain things you know I I
136. 5:24think that it's it's when you rely on
137. 5:26those technical indicators
138. 5:27for these types of things. Um, it didn't
139. 5:30really allow for a pullback this low and
140. 5:34and now they're scrambling kind of in
141. 5:36the same way that I was scrambling to
142. 5:39explain things when we had the break to
143. 5:41the upside, right? I mean, markets
144. 5:43markets are designed to to really make
145. 5:46the most amount of people look like
146. 5:48complete and total, you know, just look
147. 5:50clueless, basically make everyone look
148. 5:52clueless. So, I feel like I was
149. 5:54scrambling on the breakout and now you
150. 5:56have those guys scrambling on the
151. 5:58breakdown. And I think the scary part of
152. 6:02the analysis that is convenient to
153. 6:04ignore when you're looking at just pure
154. 6:07technical analysis, right? When you look
155. 6:08at MACD, right, the moving average
156. 6:10convergence, divergence, when you look
157. 6:11at the RSI, when you look at those
158. 6:14things, you can say, "All right, well,
159. 6:15this is what normally happens after that
160. 6:18happens." But here's the thing. This
161. 6:22breakout is not the same as the 20 as in
162. 6:27my opinion it's not the same as the 2019
163. 6:31breakout and it's not the same as the
164. 6:332023 breakout and the reason is because
165. 6:36it's following an apathetic top. an
166. 6:38apathetic top like 2020 like 2019 into
167. 6:422020, they are more known for having
168. 6:46false breakouts, right? They're more
169. 6:49known for false breakouts because and
170. 6:51the reason if you think about it, it
171. 6:52makes absolute sense, right? The reason
172. 6:56is when you have a euphoric top,
173. 7:00the sellers are are are very much there,
174. 7:03right? And you get these massive
175. 7:05capitulations to the downside. And so
176. 7:07what happens is you tend to just put in
177. 7:09lower highs because you have these
178. 7:11massive capitulations that you know
179. 7:14people get spooked, they sell, they
180. 7:16panic sell, and they move on with their
181. 7:17life. With an apathetic top, a lot of
182. 7:20people don't ever sell, right? Because
183. 7:22no one was ever really convinced the top
184. 7:23was in for the mo for a lot of people,
185. 7:25right? In 2017 when in 2021 when every
186. 7:28indicator is firing off, hey, this is
187. 7:29the top, a lot more people believe it's
188. 7:31the top. But when you have an apathetic
189. 7:33top, a lot of people just simply don't
190. 7:35believe. And so when they don't believe
191. 7:37that, then it leads to a different type
192. 7:39of bare market that is more prone to
193. 7:41fake outs than bare markets that had
194. 7:43euphoric tops. So the scary stuff is,
195. 7:49you know, the the not scary stuff
196. 7:51obviously is the normal TA. The scary
197. 7:53stuff, which is what brings us to the
198. 7:56topic of the video, are the things we've
199. 7:58been talking about here for for the last
200. 8:00several months that of course have made,
201. 8:03you know, a lot of people sort of dunk
202. 8:05on me. Uh, and and not necessarily
203. 8:08unrightfully so, but there are some
204. 8:11charts that deserve our consideration.
205. 8:13And one of those charts is what has
206. 8:15Bitcoin done after a midterm a September
207. 8:19rate hike in a midterm year. There are
208. 8:21two prior examples of a rate hike in a
209. 8:23midterm year. And in both examples,
210. 8:26Bitcoin basically stayed level with
211. 8:29where the rate hike occurred until about
212. 8:3340 until about now. Until about now. And
213. 8:36in fact, if you look at the average
214. 8:39return of Bitcoin after a rate hike in
215. 8:43September of a midterm year, we're
216. 8:45basically right at it. We're basically
217. 8:47right where we normally are at this
218. 8:48point. And what's scary is that normally
219. 8:51around this point, Bitcoin then drops
220. 8:53into the into the four-year cycle low.
221. 8:56Okay, you can also look at it the ROI of
222. 8:59Bitcoin after the first rate hike of a
223. 9:02rate hiking cycle. We had the first rate
224. 9:04hike of a rate hiking cycle happened two
225. 9:06times since Bitcoin's been around. First
226. 9:07time was December 2015. In that case,
227. 9:09the low was already in. In the second
228. 9:11case, March 2022. In that case, the low
229. 9:14was not already in.
230. 9:17But you can see that in both of those
231. 9:19prior cases, Bitcoin did at one point
232. 9:22following the rate high trade 20% below
233. 9:25in both below below in both cases. Now,
234. 9:28in one of those cases, it traded 60%
235. 9:31lower,
236. 9:32but in both cases, it did trade at least
237. 9:3520% lower than where the rate hike
238. 9:37occurred. And we're currently barely
239. 9:40above the price where that rate hike
240. 9:42occurred. Right? So, a 20% drop from
241. 9:48where we currently are would put Bitcoin
242. 9:50back at the range lows, which is why I'm
243. 9:52saying the range lows are a theoretical
244. 9:56possibility here easily. And we could go
245. 10:00we it is possible to go below the lows,
246. 10:02you know, and I I've said this before.
247. 10:04What have we said all year long? A
248. 10:06February low, a summer low, and a Q4
249. 10:11low. We've said it all year. And we had
250. 10:15a big rally. Yeah. Did it go higher than
251. 10:18I thought? Absolutely. Absolutely.
252. 10:20Right. I And I've I've owned that. I've
253. 10:22said, "Look, it's gone higher than I
254. 10:23thought." And it's important to admit
255. 10:25when we're wrong about those things,
256. 10:26right? Like I I have no shame in
257. 10:29admitting it. I know I'm going to be
258. 10:30wrong. You know, I'm going to be wrong.
259. 10:31Let's all be on the same page. So, when
260. 10:32I'm wrong, might as well say I'm wrong.
261. 10:35But that doesn't mean you still can't
262. 10:37have a Q4 low. I mean, look at look at
263. 10:38the South Korean market.
264. 10:41This is scary, right? You had a a Q1 low
265. 10:45like Bitcoin. Then you had a massive
266. 10:47rally above a prior high to a new
267. 10:51all-time high. And guess what? We still
268. 10:54got a summer low. And then now it's
269. 10:56trying to find the Q4 low. So there's
270. 10:59proof right there that
271. 11:03you can have all three lows. Look at
272. 11:06HSI. Look at the Chinese markets. Same
273. 11:09thing, right? You have your
274. 11:14Q1 low, your summer low, and now it's
275. 11:18falling into the Q4 low. Look at look at
276. 11:21gold. Same thing, right? Your Q1 low,
277. 11:26your summer low going into the Q4 low.
278. 11:30So, what's interesting is that you're
279. 11:32seeing that pattern across the markets,
280. 11:37even in the NASDAQ. Even in the NASDAQ,
281. 11:39look at the NASDAQ. In the NASDAQ, you
282. 11:42have your Q1 low, your summer low, and
283. 11:46now we're going into the Q4 low, right?
284. 11:49So, the pattern is present across the
285. 11:53markets. You can see it across the
286. 11:56markets. And I think what we have talked
287. 11:59about all year long is playing out in
288. 12:03the sense that it looks like we're
289. 12:04getting the correction in equities. I
290. 12:07said expect a 10 to 20% drop.
291. 12:11The NASDAQ has already dropped over 10%.
292. 12:15Now the S&P 500 has not. Okay?
293. 12:20It's only dropped about 4%. But who's to
294. 12:23say it won't eventually drop 10? I mean,
295. 12:24you know, we still have two more months
296. 12:27in the year, and who's to say it can't
297. 12:30just simply continue uh a little bit
298. 12:32longer, right? I I think it very well
299. 12:34could, especially with the uncertainty
300. 12:36of the midterms uh coming up relatively
301. 12:39soon. So,
302. 12:41this stuff to me seems relevant. Now,
303. 12:44another scary chart is look at what
304. 12:46Bitcoin did 30 days before the SpaceX
305. 12:50IPO. it started to bleed and then it
306. 12:52bottomed shortly after. Now we're going
307. 12:55into the anthropic IPO and 30 days
308. 12:58before approximately. We don't know
309. 12:59exactly when the IPO is going to be, but
310. 13:01we we know it's probably going to be
311. 13:02between November 16th and November 20th.
312. 13:05You can see that Bitcoin is bleeding out
313. 13:07going into the anthropic IPO.
314. 13:09Fundamentally, that makes sense because
315. 13:10there's going to be people that are
316. 13:12going to sell stuff so they have
317. 13:14liquidity to go buy the IPO. Now, you
318. 13:17might say, "Well, that's stupid. Why
319. 13:18would you sell Bitcoin to go buy an IPO
320. 13:20that you think is massively overvalued?
321. 13:22But the reality is is over the last
322. 13:25several years, AI stocks have been
323. 13:28beating have been have been completely
324. 13:30beating Bitcoin's
325. 13:32average returns, right? I mean, they've
326. 13:34been annihilating. They've been eating
327. 13:36Bitcoin's lunch essentially. So yes, it
328. 13:40might sound silly to you that people
329. 13:43would go do that and it seems a little
330. 13:46silly to me as well, but the reality is
331. 13:51that
332. 13:53if you look at the valuation of Bitcoin,
333. 13:55just say against the NASDAQ, not even
334. 13:57necessarily like a specific AI stock,
335. 13:59but just against the NASDAQ, Bitcoin's
336. 14:02at the same valuation against the NASDAQ
337. 14:03that it was at 5 years ago. and also 9
338. 14:08years ago. So, we can we can pretend in
339. 14:12crypto that, you know, we're the best
340. 14:15and that no other asset class comes
341. 14:17close, but Bitcoin's at the same
342. 14:19valuation now that it was at literally
343. 14:22if you had bought the top 9 years ago.
344. 14:25And that might be cherry-picking because
345. 14:26we were only there for a very very brief
346. 14:28period of time, but the same valuation
347. 14:30it was at in, you know, 2024
348. 14:34and 2023
349. 14:36and 2022 and 2021
350. 14:40and 2020, right? So,
351. 14:47it's not as crazy as it sounds that
352. 14:49people might do it, especially
353. 14:50considering what Bitcoin's returns have
354. 14:53in fact been. So,
355. 14:56these are some spooky charts, right?
356. 14:58Because what they show, what they what
357. 15:01they all tend to agree on is that
358. 15:03Bitcoin is kind of in that window where
359. 15:07it goes down into that 4-year cycle low,
360. 15:10right? Like we're kind of in that window
361. 15:12now. And from an ROI perspective, from
362. 15:16the low, we're very much in that window,
363. 15:19right? I mean, you could even argue we
364. 15:22we've we've extended through the window,
365. 15:24but again, last last time it was a
366. 15:26little bit longer than the time before
367. 15:28as well. Uh, so it's not like it's that
368. 15:30it's not like it's that crazy when you
369. 15:32look at it as measured from the peak.
370. 15:36What you'll notice is this cycle
371. 15:41still hasn't lasted as long as the one
372. 15:43in 2014. And you can see that back then
373. 15:46Bitcoin just sold off into into the
374. 15:49cycle low. So to me it all still seems
375. 15:53to line up. I I think there's a lot of
376. 15:56confluence in this stuff. I think that
377. 15:59midterm years are hard for everyone. And
378. 16:03the name of the game is to survive.
379. 16:05That's the name of the game. And it's
380. 16:08difficult because you have a market that
381. 16:11is essentially faking people out in both
382. 16:14directions to the downside and the
383. 16:17upside. It's making everyone look like
384. 16:21morons, right? Because I don't I don't
385. 16:23really think there's many people that um
386. 16:27have predicted every single move. I mean
387. 16:28I my guess earlier was we have a
388. 16:31February low, a summer low, and a Q4
389. 16:34low. Is it true that I underestimated
390. 16:37the Q3 rally, the extent of it? It is,
391. 16:39right? But from a macro perspective, I
392. 16:43mean, if we end up with a Q1 low, a
393. 16:46summer low, and a Q4 low, it it's
394. 16:48basically would have played out like
395. 16:49every other midterm year. It's no
396. 16:51different than every other midterm year.
397. 16:53It's just that because you put in a
398. 16:55higher high, a lot of people gave up on
399. 16:57it. What if it happens all the same?
400. 17:00What if despite the higher high,
401. 17:05the four-year cycle low happens anyways?
402. 17:08And this is something we've talked about
403. 17:09for a while. So, I would lean into this
404. 17:12idea
405. 17:15as long as, you know, as as long as the
406. 17:17data supports it. And to me, it still
407. 17:19supports it. Right? The burden of proof
408. 17:21is back on the bulls again. I mean, they
409. 17:23they had sort of this brief period where
410. 17:25they had a breakout, but that's all been
411. 17:27given back now. And the scary one of the
412. 17:30scariest charts to me is the Bitcoin
413. 17:33gold valuation because I know a lot of
414. 17:35people don't like gold, but the reality
415. 17:37is is that Bitcoin swept the highs and
416. 17:41we've seen this oscillator stuff happen
417. 17:43a lot. It already went down here back in
418. 17:452022. If we can sweep the highs,
419. 17:50why can't we sweep the lows? Guess what?
420. 17:52It already happened on silver on Bitcoin
421. 17:54silver pair. Bitcoin already swept the
422. 17:57lows against silver.
423. 17:59They can do it against silver, why can't
424. 18:01it do it against gold? And the range
425. 18:02lows are around 10. So what that means
426. 18:06is with Bitcoin at or sorry with gold at
427. 18:11three uh 3,800,
428. 18:14a 10x for that for that ratio would put
429. 18:17Bitcoin at around 40k. Now, if gold were
430. 18:21to rally back to say $6,000, then a 10x
431. 18:25uh you know, or the ratio of 10 would
432. 18:27put Bitcoin at at 60K. So, it kind of
433. 18:30depends on what gold does, right? As to
434. 18:32what that ratio would in fact be. But I
435. 18:36will tell you guys this, and you know, I
436. 18:38don't I don't spend a lot of time
437. 18:39dwelling on it. I'm sure you guys have
438. 18:41noticed. I do not want to be overly
439. 18:43deterministic, uh, especially given the
440. 18:45summer rally, but I'm not going to
441. 18:48pretend like this chart doesn't exist.
442. 18:50You know, I know a lot of people would
443. 18:52would, you know, a lot of people anytime
444. 18:53I mention it, they're like, "Oh, well,
445. 18:55Ben said this." You know, how dare he
446. 18:58say this? Like, he doesn't know what
447. 18:59he's talking about. But here's a chart
448. 19:02that has always been very helpful in
449. 19:05navigating the bare markets. And every
450. 19:07single bare market, Bitcoin has gone
451. 19:09below the realized price.
452. 19:11before the bare market was over. Every
453. 19:14single one. And you could say 2019
454. 19:18wouldn't have happened without the
455. 19:20pandemic. But we don't know. We don't
456. 19:22know what would have happened without
457. 19:23the pandemic.
458. 19:24What if this time the same thing happens
459. 19:27and then we'll just be staying saying,
460. 19:28"Oh, well, it wouldn't have happened if
461. 19:31oil prices didn't surge due to the war
462. 19:33in Iran." Okay, fine. Who knows what
463. 19:36would have happened without it? But
464. 19:38that's the thing is that no matter the
465. 19:41reason,
466. 19:43Bitcoin always eventually fell below the
467. 19:45realized price, right? No matter the
468. 19:47reason what it was, even in the 2020
469. 19:502019 bare market going into 2020 from an
470. 19:52apathetic top, we still eventually went
471. 19:55below the realized price.
472. 19:57So,
473. 19:59it seems like that's probably what's
474. 20:00going to happen at some point. I just
475. 20:02don't know if it's going to happen this
476. 20:03year. You know, is it possible that that
477. 20:06Bitcoin goes back down to the range low?
478. 20:09Is it possible it does something like
479. 20:10this, bottoms here, and then goes back
480. 20:13up again and then sometime in 2027 goes
481. 20:15below the realized price or maybe 2028?
482. 20:18Yeah, absolutely. Right. Absolutely.
483. 20:21That could occur.
484. 20:23But
485. 20:25I mean, it's hard to pretend like it
486. 20:27doesn't exist, you know? Like it's hard
487. 20:29to be like, "All right, let's just
488. 20:30ignore it." And then what's scarier is
489. 20:32you have the balance price which is
490. 20:34where all prior bare markets have
491. 20:36terminated and we're not at the balance
492. 20:38price. And what's interesting is the
493. 20:40balance price is 38,000. Right? So the
494. 20:44balance price is 38k.
495. 20:46So what's interesting about that is that
496. 20:48gold is 3,800 and the the Bitcoin gold
497. 20:52ratio swing low would be about 10. So
498. 20:57that's the scary thing, right? Like
499. 20:58that's the scary valuation is that what
500. 21:01if Bitcoin drops to the range low
501. 21:05against gold where the ratio was 10 and
502. 21:08if gold's at 3,800 then that would put
503. 21:10Bitcoin right around that 40k mark. That
504. 21:13is why I'm releasing this video on
505. 21:16Halloween cuz it's really scary. It's
506. 21:18really spooky. I don't know if it's
507. 21:20going to happen this year or not. But I
508. 21:22can say this. If you look at 2018 where
509. 21:25we found support at 6K and you look at
510. 21:282022 where we or sorry 2019 where we
511. 21:31found support at 6K, one was after a
512. 21:34euphoric top, one was after an apathetic
513. 21:36top. And both times we found support at
514. 21:40around $6,000. And in both cases, when
515. 21:44support at 6K was lost,
516. 21:48we then went to between $3 and $4,000
517. 21:53in 2018 and we went to between three and
518. 21:56$4,000 in 2019. So the argument is what
519. 22:01if
520. 22:022026
521. 22:04is like either the 2018 bare market or
522. 22:07the 2019 2020 bare market where they
523. 22:09both eventually resolve between 30 and
524. 22:1240k. That's the scary thing. Now the
525. 22:15reason why I can't get too deterministic
526. 22:17about it happening this year. I think
527. 22:19it'd be convenient if it did. But I'm
528. 22:22looking at the silver chart
529. 22:25um you know from 2011 and I recognize
530. 22:28that in this case you had sort of
531. 22:30imagine you have imagine this is the
532. 22:32Bitcoin chart. You had your February
533. 22:34low, you had your summer low and you had
534. 22:36your Q4 low. And in every and and guess
535. 22:40what? After one of those lows, you had a
536. 22:43fake out that took out the prior high
537. 22:46and we dropped to the bull market
538. 22:47support band and then back to the range
539. 22:49low and then it went back up again and
540. 22:51then eventually it finally broke
541. 22:54through. But it took a long time to
542. 22:57break through. In fact, from
543. 23:00the initial low in order to actually
544. 23:03break below it, it took about 80 weeks.
545. 23:07Now, if you look at Bitcoin, 80 weeks
546. 23:10from the February low is a long time,
547. 23:13right? I mean, that's nowhere that's
548. 23:15nowhere soon. That's all the way out in
549. 23:17like August of 2027.
550. 23:20And that's a long time from now.
551. 23:24So, if it repeats the silver chart, then
552. 23:27you're looking at something like this
553. 23:29where Bitcoin goes back down to the
554. 23:31range lows and then it rallies back up
555. 23:35and then it goes back down
556. 23:38and then people finally give up and then
557. 23:40you go down here
558. 23:42and then you sort of build out your base
559. 23:45like silver did back in the day. This
560. 23:47would I mean if if something like this
561. 23:49happens it'd have to be due to a
562. 23:50recession in my opinion. Um, and then
563. 23:52you slowly work your way back up and
564. 23:55then 20 the 2030 bare market hits
565. 23:59because it's a midterm year.
566. 24:03And then you come back down and then you
567. 24:06eventually go back up and then you look
568. 24:09at this many years later,
569. 24:11you're like, "Oh, that really sucked. I
570. 24:14hope that doesn't happen." I mean,
571. 24:15honestly, I'd prefer it just does
572. 24:17something like this and then we're back
573. 24:18on our way. That's what I'd prefer. But
574. 24:20I don't always get what I want. In fact,
575. 24:22frequently I don't get what I want. And
576. 24:25I always tell myself, trade the market
577. 24:27you have, not the market you want.
578. 24:29Right? Trade the market you have, not
579. 24:32the market you want.
580. 24:34I say it over and over and over to
581. 24:36myself. Because I can forget. I mean, I
582. 24:38I I forget about the fact that, hey, my
583. 24:41views are not representative necessarily
584. 24:42of what's going to happen in the market.
585. 24:44And uh a lot of times what I think I
586. 24:48would say like there's a decent chance
587. 24:50what I say uh in the last few years a
588. 24:53lot of what I have said has come true
589. 24:54but a like a lot of times it has come
590. 24:57true on on longer time frames than I
591. 24:59thought it would take. Like Ethereum
592. 25:00going home took longer than I thought.
593. 25:01Bitcoin dominance going to 60% took
594. 25:03longer than I initially thought. Doesn't
595. 25:05mean it didn't happen, but it still it
596. 25:08took longer than I initially thought it
597. 25:09would. it was still generally trending
598. 25:11in the same the right direction, but it
599. 25:13just made people believe it was never
600. 25:15actually going to happen. And I I wonder
601. 25:16if the same thing is going to happen now
602. 25:18with Bitcoin and things like the
603. 25:20realized price and the balance price and
604. 25:21and that sort of stuff. Uh, you know,
605. 25:24yes, they could happen this year.
606. 25:28If it does, it would make things a hell
607. 25:31of a lot easier, but the market, you
608. 25:33know, certainly is not interested in
609. 25:35what makes things easier. Instead, it
610. 25:37normally does what is is far more
611. 25:39difficult. Um, the other thing I want
612. 25:41you guys to think of as it relates to
613. 25:43silver, and I I've just said this
614. 25:44because it is a it's a really scary way
615. 25:46to look at the market,
616. 25:48um, and it's fitting for the video.
617. 25:52Here's the thing. Bitcoin and silver
618. 25:56started at the same level. Practically,
619. 25:58Bitcoin started at around 15K. Silver
620. 26:01started around 17,
621. 26:04right? And you could argue that Bitcoin
622. 26:06would have started at 17 had it not been
623. 26:08for the FTX collapse. So they both both
624. 26:11both started between 15 and 17. I mean
625. 26:14$15 for silver uh or $17 silver 15,000
626. 26:19for Bitcoin. But then they both rallied
627. 26:21all the way up to, you know, for Bitcoin
628. 26:25126 for silver. It was around 120 if you
629. 26:29look at the the wick to the upside. And
630. 26:31then now silver is all the way down at
631. 26:3549. And I'm wondering, is silver showing
632. 26:39us where Bitcoin is eventually going?
633. 26:42Right. Is silver showing us where
634. 26:44Bitcoin eventually goes? They both had a
635. 26:47very similar rally.
636. 26:49They're both built on, you know, the
637. 26:51debasement trade. They're not Silver's
638. 26:53more of a riskoff asset. Bitcoin is more
639. 26:55of a risk asset. But regardless, they
640. 26:58had a similar rally and they topped out
641. 27:02at around the same level, 120 for both.
642. 27:05And silver is now at 49.
643. 27:08And normally what we see happen with
644. 27:12metals is they bottom out oftentimes
645. 27:14earlier than Bitcoin.
646. 27:17Like if you look at silver in 2022,
647. 27:20silver bottomed in August. Bitcoin
648. 27:24didn't bottom until two months later.
649. 27:28In 2018,
650. 27:30silver
651. 27:32um you know, if you zoom in, I don't
652. 27:34even know. I mean, I'll look. I I don't
653. 27:35really know exactly when it bottomed.
654. 27:37Silver bottomed in November. Bitcoin
655. 27:39bottomed a month later. So, what what if
656. 27:42silver is showing us where Bitcoin is
657. 27:44going to go? It's just doing it. It's
658. 27:46going down there first. And look, I know
659. 27:49it sounds crazy, but if you look at the
660. 27:50NASDAQ
661. 27:52and you overlay silver onto the chart,
662. 27:55look at the look what happened in the
663. 27:57financial crisis.
664. 28:02Silver
665. 28:06bottomed and was already trending back
666. 28:08up while the stock market in general was
667. 28:11still at the lows by March of 2009.
668. 28:15Silver bottomed in October of 2008. Like
669. 28:18look at the S&P. Silver in in during the
670. 28:21financial crisis. Silver
671. 28:24bottomed in Yeah. Like in October 2008,
672. 28:27the S&P didn't bottom until March 2009.
673. 28:31So often times during crisis, like a
674. 28:33crisis like what we're potentially in
675. 28:35right now, uh, with oil prices, you
676. 28:38know, skyrocketing this, you know,
677. 28:39midterm year uncertainty. I mean, it
678. 28:41might not feel like a crisis yet, but
679. 28:43I'll tell you this. I mean, the NASDAQ,
680. 28:45if if this were a crisis, this is what
681. 28:48it would look like initially. And this
682. 28:49is what I've been saying for weeks.
683. 28:50Like, it's hard to know for sure if my
684. 28:52prediction of a Q4 correction in
685. 28:54equities pans out, but this is what it
686. 28:56would look like. And now it has dropped
687. 28:5710%. So, I mean, I said 10 to 20%. And
688. 29:01the NASDAQ is already down 10%. So, I
689. 29:04feel like it has panned out. And I feel
690. 29:05like it can continue this trajectory
691. 29:08here in the very, very short term. So,
692. 29:12what if
693. 29:15silver. What if metals are telling us
694. 29:18like what Bitcoin is going to do? It's
695. 29:20just that Bitcoin likely bottoms out
696. 29:22after metals and then they both go up
697. 29:25hopefully in 2027. But that's what we've
698. 29:28seen happen many in in the the last two
699. 29:30midterm years is where metals bottom out
700. 29:32before Bitcoin and then they start going
701. 29:35up and then Bitcoin goes up after metals
702. 29:38do and then Bitcoin can outperform
703. 29:40metals for a while.
704. 29:43But this we've seen this happen before.
705. 29:46It's spooky. There's a lot of again a
706. 29:49lot of the traditional technical
707. 29:50indicators have been bullish and that's
708. 29:53why you know it's hard to it's hard to
709. 29:55bring you this message like I I you know
710. 29:57would I prefer to just be like hey guys
711. 29:59we're just you know it's going to the
712. 30:00moon and all this. Yes it' be easier but
713. 30:02if at the end of the day like if at the
714. 30:05end of the day I still think there's a
715. 30:07risk to this stuff of like hey what if
716. 30:09it plays out like the last time we had a
717. 30:11rate hike? What if it plays out like the
718. 30:13last time we had this major AI or this
719. 30:16major IPO earlier this year? What if the
720. 30:18market structure just plays out like it
721. 30:20has in prior midterm years where you
722. 30:22have a Q1 low, a summer low, and a Q4
723. 30:25low?
724. 30:27What if what if what if I can't turn the
725. 30:30blind eye to it? So, yes, people can
726. 30:34call me names. They can say whatever
727. 30:36they want to say, but at the end of the
728. 30:38day, at the end of the day,
729. 30:41I respect the market, right? And I I
730. 30:44will respect what it is telling me. And
731. 30:47yes, there are going to be times where
732. 30:48I'm wrong, but I have said all year long
733. 30:52that what would cause the final drop for
734. 30:54Bitcoin would be
735. 30:57a drop in equities. And that's what
736. 31:00we're getting right now. And I've also
737. 31:01said for basically the entire year that
738. 31:04what would cause the drop in equities
739. 31:07was a rise in energy prices that caused
740. 31:10the long end to go up.
741. 31:14Now that the long end is going down,
742. 31:16Bitcoin is dropping. But guess what? The
743. 31:19last two major lows that occurred this
744. 31:21year also occurred while the long end
745. 31:25was dropping. the February the the sort
746. 31:27of the March low by Bitcoin occurred
747. 31:29while the 10-year yield was going down.
748. 31:31The summer low occurred while the
749. 31:3310-year yield was going down. What if
750. 31:35the Q4 low occurs while the 10-year is
751. 31:39going down?
752. 31:43This has been a difficult year. Um
753. 31:46hopefully, you know, hopefully these
754. 31:48videos have been helpful. Um, and
755. 31:51hopefully people can kind of look at
756. 31:52this and understand like why it's been
757. 31:54hard to let go of the of the bearish
758. 31:56view, right? As as much as I'd like to.
759. 31:59Like I don't want to sit around, you
760. 32:00know, for a year talking about all the
761. 32:02bearish stuff while Bitcoin's in a bull
762. 32:04market. I can promise you that.
763. 32:08I think we're close, right? But I mean,
764. 32:10I think we got to form the Q4 low. And
765. 32:12I, you know, we'll see. We'll see where
766. 32:14that ends up being. Uh, and is there a
767. 32:16chance it's a higher low? Yeah. Right.
768. 32:19Right. It could be
769. 32:21worst case scenario is the bounce price
770. 32:23in my opinion. That's the tail risk,
771. 32:24right? The tail risk for Bitcoin is that
772. 32:27it goes to the bounce price. Um, and
773. 32:30that's always been the case, right? I
774. 32:31mean, that that's where every prior bare
775. 32:33market has eventually terminated. And
776. 32:35so, you know, if we get around that
777. 32:37level, then I I don't think it would
778. 32:39make sense at all to be bearish. Like, I
779. 32:41don't think you would look at any
780. 32:42indicator and be like, "Oh, we're still
781. 32:43bearish." No, at that point it makes
782. 32:45sense in my mind to to flip more
783. 32:47bullish, but we're not there, right? you
784. 32:48know, we're not there and um we're not
785. 32:50even at the realized price. And by the
786. 32:52way, in 2018, we didn't go below the
787. 32:56realized price in 2018 um until guess
788. 33:00which month?
789. 33:02November, right? We didn't go below the
790. 33:04realized price until November in 2018.
791. 33:07So, who's to say it won't happen? I
792. 33:09mean, who's to say it just simply won't
793. 33:10happen in November? We'll see. It's
794. 33:13scary, but it's Halloween, right? It's
795. 33:16Halloween and I'm here to to, you know,
796. 33:19to say look, this is scary, but it's
797. 33:22possible. If you guys like the content,
798. 33:25subscribe, give the video a thumbs up.
799. 33:27We have ITC Premium. Check that out.
800. 33:28Link in the description below. But more
801. 33:30importantly, if you want to be a part of
802. 33:32um the conference, go ahead and get your
803. 33:34ticket. As I said, we have the agenda
804. 33:36out. We've got a lot of great speakers
805. 33:38coming. You can just pause the video
806. 33:39here and look at at the agenda if you
807. 33:41don't want to go over to the website.
808. 33:43We've got a lot of great talks. These
809. 33:45talks are subject to change. Don't look
810. 33:46at this and assume that this has to be
811. 33:48the final uh version of it. There is a
812. 33:51good chance we'll have to move some
813. 33:52things around uh or maybe a talk or two
814. 33:54will change, but this is the plan as of
815. 33:56now. Okay, this is the plan as of now.
816. 34:00Thank you guys for being here. Subscribe
817. 34:01and I'll see you next time. Bye.