Bitcoin Did This Once Before. Then It Made Everyone Wait. What Came After? A 1,774% Bull Run. — Transcript

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1. 0:00Bitcoin closed July, August, and
2. 0:02September green. All three. July up
3. 0:067.33%.
4. 0:08August up 25.08%.
5. 0:10September up 6.35%.
6. 0:13In the public price record I trust for
7. 0:15this era, that has happened exactly
8. 0:17twice. 2012 and now. And the third green
9. 0:22month landed in one that traders call
10. 0:24Retember.
11. 0:26There's a rule people repeat about what
12. 0:28comes after a quarter like this. It has
13. 0:30one exception that matters, the fourth
14. 0:32quarter of 2025.
15. 0:35I'll show you what that quarter did. The
16. 0:37last time Bitcoin did this in 2012, the
17. 0:40price ran 1,774%
18. 0:44from the first day you could act on the
19. 0:46signal to the first peak. This year's
20. 0:48streak came in at about 50.4%
21. 0:51of the size of 2012's. So about half and
22. 0:55half of a 1774% run is still the kind of
23. 0:59number people build retirement plans
24. 1:01around. This was the third best July to
25. 1:04September in the record behind only 2012
26. 1:07and 2017.
27. 1:10Now the part nobody puts in the
28. 1:11headline. After the streak in 2012,
29. 1:14Bitcoin did almost nothing for 3 months.
30. 1:18October went red. The whole fourth
31. 1:20quarter crawled. and then it took off.
32. 1:24So, the Bitcoin price prediction
33. 1:26question for Q4 2026 isn't whether you
34. 1:30get paid, it's whether you're still
35. 1:32holding the ticket when the payment
36. 1:33shows up.
37. 1:35October is next, but the 2012 version of
38. 1:38it was a 9.98%
39. 1:41drop. And that kind of drop would take
40. 1:43Bitcoin today under $80,000.
41. 1:47And there's a buyer question. In 2012,
42. 1:49the protocol did the heavy lifting. This
43. 1:52year it has to be someone's money.
44. 1:55The ETFs are one candidate and October
45. 1:58has been slow for them so far. The other
46. 2:01is Strategy and Strategy has said
47. 2:03exactly what it's waiting for. Its
48. 2:06preferred stock STRC or Stretch closed
49. 2:09at $9947
50. 2:11on Tuesday. The trigger is $100.
51. 2:16Before we get to October and how it will
52. 2:17play out in 2026, a disclosure. The next
53. 2:2190 seconds are a paid sponsorship and
54. 2:23the sponsor had no say in anything else
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94. 3:52Now, the trigger strategy is waiting
95. 3:54for. Fun is the CEO of Strategy. Here's
96. 3:58how he described the plan.
97. 4:00>> Yeah. So, you're seeing us do this now.
98. 4:01We're increasing the US dollar reserve.
99. 4:03We said we're going to keep the rate
100. 4:04roughly at 12%. And we're buying back
101. 4:07Stretch. And those actions methodically
102. 4:10over time should cause uh Stretch to
103. 4:14trade back up to $100. Right? The market
104. 4:17knows that that is our intent. We've
105. 4:19stated that intent. I'm Dana Love. Four
106. 4:22things I'll prove today. One, rerun with
107. 4:26September's final close. The 2012
108. 4:28pattern points to a new price range. and
109. 4:30both ends of it came down a little. Two,
110. 4:34the quarter right after the 2012 signal
111. 4:36looked like a dud. Plenty of people gave
112. 4:39up on it. That dud is the most useful
113. 4:42thing in the whole record. Three, green
114. 4:45Q3 means green Q4 is wrong the way
115. 4:48people say it, but there's a version of
116. 4:50it that is never missed. Not once.
117. 4:54Four. The buyer this pattern needs got
118. 4:57cheaper this month. and the buyer we
119. 4:59actually have, they're still not close.
120. 5:01Strategies trigger won't close that gap
121. 5:03by itself, and I'll show you what would
122. 5:06and how much of it you can check
123. 5:07yourself every morning.
124. 5:09Let's get forensic.
125. 5:14The price archive I use updates itself
126. 5:16every night at midnight UTC, straight
127. 5:18from Bitstamp's public data feed. The
128. 5:21last row I pulled for this video is from
129. 5:23late last night. It's the same file I
130. 5:25used on September 24th. And I think that
131. 5:28matters because when you switch data
132. 5:30sources halfway through a comparison,
133. 5:32the numbers get weird. On September
134. 5:3524th, I promised you I'd I'd rerun every
135. 5:37number with the final September close.
136. 5:39Here it is. That day, I told you
137. 5:42September was up 9.76% with a week to
138. 5:45go. It finished at 6.35%.
139. 5:49The last week gave about a third of the
140. 5:52month. So, the streak shrank and
141. 5:55everything I scaled from it shrinks,
142. 5:57too.
143. 5:582012's 3 months add up to 84.87%.
144. 6:032026s add up to 42.78%.
145. 6:07That's where the 50.4% comes from the
146. 6:10ratio.
147. 6:12Last time I scaled the 1774%
148. 6:15run two ways, and I'll do the same two
149. 6:18ways now. Straight line, half the streak
150. 6:21buys half the run. That's $894%
151. 6:24which takes the Bitcoin price from
152. 6:26$83,563
153. 6:28to about $831,000.
154. 6:32Then the compounding way, which is how
155. 6:35returns usually work, how they pretty
156. 6:37much usually stack. In plain terms,
157. 6:40gains multiply. So instead of having the
158. 6:421774, you treat the run at 18.74 times
159. 6:46your money and shrink the multiple by
160. 6:48the size of the streak. That's 447% or
161. 6:52about $457,000.
162. 6:56Last month the range was 548 to
163. 6:58$940,000.
164. 7:00Now it's $457,000
165. 7:02to $831,000.
166. 7:05Both ends came down.
167. 7:10They're both huge. I'm keeping both on
168. 7:13the screen because if I only showed you
169. 7:15the big one, I'd be doing the thing I
170. 7:17criticized last time.
171. 7:19One more note on the data and then we
172. 7:21move. One crypto outlet ran this streak
173. 7:24on October 1st as the first time on
174. 7:26record. Their return tables start in
175. 7:292013.
176. 7:312012 is just off the edge of their map.
177. 7:34That's not a gotcha. I said last time,
178. 7:37I'll say this time. Public price data
179. 7:39from 2012 is genuinely hard to find. And
180. 7:43it's why every number in this video
181. 7:44comes from one downloadable file. The
182. 7:47link is in the description and you can
183. 7:49check every number I give you. If this
184. 7:51kind of forensic Bitcoin analysis is
185. 7:53useful to you, I would very much value
186. 7:56your subscription.
187. 7:58And if you're already a subscriber, I
188. 8:00very much value you.
189. 8:05Here's what 2012 did after the signal
190. 8:07month by month. October down 9.98%.
191. 8:12November up 13.00%.
192. 8:16The 000 matters.
193. 8:18December up 6.52%.
194. 8:22Put the quarter together and Bitcoin
195. 8:24went from $122
196. 8:26to $13.24.
197. 8:28That's up 8.35% over 3 months.
198. 8:33That's it.
199. 8:34And November had the first having in it.
200. 8:37On November 28th, 2012, block 210,000
201. 8:41cut the mining reward from 50 coins to
202. 8:4425 coins. In plain terms, the flow of
203. 8:48new Bitcoin was cut in half overnight,
204. 8:50and nobody could buy their way around
205. 8:51it. The biggest supply shock Bitcoin
206. 8:54will ever have landed in the middle of
207. 8:56the quarter, and the quarter still ended
208. 8:58up 8%.
209. 9:01Think about what that what you'd have
210. 9:03been feeling on December 31st, 2012.
211. 9:09I was probably feeling like I had too
212. 9:11much champagne.
213. 9:14You saw three green months. You bought
214. 9:17on October 1st. You sat through a red
215. 9:20October. And at a New Year's Eve, you're
216. 9:22up a little over a buck a coin. Plenty
217. 9:25of people in that spot would have called
218. 9:27it a bust and moved on.
219. 9:30I'd call that quarter a waiting room.
220. 9:33Nothing happens in a waiting room. And
221. 9:35that's kind of the whole point of it.
222. 9:37You're not being ignored, you're next.
223. 9:43Maybe you're being ignored and you're
224. 9:45next.
225. 9:48January 2013 was up 54.53%
226. 9:52in one month and the Bitcoin bull run of
227. 9:552013 was underway. By April 9th, 2013,
228. 9:59Bitcoin closed at $229.
229. 10:02That's 1,774%.
230. 10:06Almost none of it came in the f in the
231. 10:08fourth quarter. The signal paid nothing
232. 10:10for three months, then paid everything.
233. 10:14Now map 2012's distances onto this year.
234. 10:19I mean, it's by quarter, so the
235. 10:20distances kind of line up. 90 days from
236. 10:23October 1st, 2026 is December 30th. 190
237. 10:27days, the distance to the 2012 peak is
238. 10:30April 9th, 2027.
239. 10:32If 2026 rhymes with 2012, the waiting
240. 10:36room runs through Christmas and the
241. 10:38interesting part starts after New
242. 10:40Year's. So when people tell you this
243. 10:43pattern means Q4 2026 explodes, that's
244. 10:46not what 2012 says. 2012 says Q4 is
245. 10:50where you can find out whether you can
246. 10:52sit still.
247. 10:57October has earned its nickname. Since
248. 10:592012, Bitcoin has closed October green
249. 11:0210 times in 14 years, and the media in
250. 11:05October gained 12.77%.
251. 11:09That's the number you'll see on a lot of
252. 11:11thumbnails this month. Now, look at the
253. 11:14four red ones. 2014, 2018,
254. 11:18last year, and 2012.
255. 11:23October 2020, 2012 lost 9.898%.
256. 11:27Run that from this year's September
257. 11:28close and you land at about $75,000.
258. 11:32Say this year does half of it, the same
259. 11:34half we've been using all along. That's
260. 11:37still just under $80,000. That's
261. 11:40$79,359.
262. 11:44Both of those are under $83,000. And
263. 11:46$83,000 is where Bitcoin is sitting this
264. 11:48week.
265. 11:50If you bought on October 1st, the
266. 11:52half-size version puts you down about
267. 11:54$4,200
268. 11:55a coin before anything good happens.
269. 12:00So, a red October wouldn't break the
270. 12:022012 comparison.
271. 12:04It would complete it. The people who
272. 12:07sold that October sold at $11. By April,
273. 12:10it was $229.
274. 12:15Well, okay, then that's the test. Sadly,
275. 12:18not of the chart of you.
276. 12:22And look at what the other three red
277. 12:24October led to. 2014's fourth quarter
278. 12:28lost 17.92%.
279. 12:312018's lost 44.02%.
280. 12:35Last year's lost 23.29%.
281. 12:39Three of the four red October opened a
282. 12:42red quarter. Only one opened a run, and
283. 12:45it's the one this video is about. So, a
284. 12:48red October isn't proof you're in 2012.
285. 12:52It's the entry fee for finding out.
286. 12:55Bitcoin October so far is up 0.27%.
287. 12:596 days in, that's a coin toss with a hat
288. 13:01on. It It doesn't tell you anything yet.
289. 13:05I saw a funny uh meme that was a person
290. 13:08probably intoxicated climbing up a kid's
291. 13:11slide and it was, you know, Bitcoin
292. 13:1483,000 84,000 85,000 86,000. It got to
293. 13:1787,000 and then they hit the railing and
294. 13:20[snorts] fell back down to the floor.
295. 13:23It's kind of what October has been
296. 13:25feeling like.
297. 13:28So, what I I said it was a coin toss
298. 13:30with a hat on. It It doesn't tell you
299. 13:32anything yet. And I want to be careful
300. 13:34with this one. A 10% drop in 2012 was a
301. 13:38buck 22 a coin. A 10% drop today is more
302. 13:42than $8,000 a coin. Same percentage,
303. 13:46very different stomach, very different
304. 13:48impact on your stomach lining. If you're
305. 13:51going to hold through a waiting room,
306. 13:53know what the chairs cost before you sit
307. 13:55down.
308. 13:59Now, the rule I promised you at the top.
309. 14:02It goes like this. If Bitcoin has a
310. 14:04green third quarter, the fourth quarter
311. 14:06is green, too. I checked it against the
312. 14:08same file I've been using, the same one
313. 14:10that's linked in the descriptions. Since
314. 14:122012, Bitcoin has had eight green third
315. 14:14quarters before this one. Six were
316. 14:17followed by a green fourth quarter. Two
317. 14:19weren't. 2018, the third quarter was up
318. 14:233.32%. The fourth quarter lost 44.02%.
319. 14:28And 2025,
320. 14:30the third quarter was up 6.42%.
321. 14:33Then Bitcoin peaked in October near
322. 14:35$126,000
323. 14:37and the fourth quarter lost 23.29%.
324. 14:41That's the exception that's only 12
325. 14:43months old.
326. 14:45So the rule as people say it is wrong.
327. 14:49Six of 8 is not a law of nature. It's a
328. 14:52really good batting average though.
329. 14:56Now look at the size of the quarters
330. 14:57that missed. 3.32% 6.42%
331. 15:02small.
332. 15:04Every third quarter that gained more
333. 15:05than 15% was followed by a green fourth
334. 15:09quarter. 2012, 2013, 2017, 2020, 2021.
335. 15:14Five for five.
336. 15:16And I didn't pick 15% to make that work.
337. 15:19Any cutoff between 6.42% and 18.01%
338. 15:24splits the record the same way.
339. 15:2718.01%
340. 15:29is 2020, the smallest of the big ones.
341. 15:35But now the other problem, five is a
342. 15:39small number. And one of the five, 2021,
343. 15:43was green by just 5.43%.
344. 15:46Green is not the same as good. If you
345. 15:49want to call five for five a
346. 15:50coincidence, nothing in the record stops
347. 15:52you. It's also the best evidence anyone
348. 15:54has, and it points the same way.
349. 15:59And look at what the big ones did next.
350. 16:032013's third quarter gained 41% and its
351. 16:06fourth quarter gained 479.8%.
352. 16:122017 went 75% then 221%.
353. 16:172020 went 18% then 169%.
354. 16:23Since people say it was too many decimal
355. 16:25points, that was actually 168.99%.
356. 16:28But I round it up.
357. 16:31[laughter] Th those are the fourth
358. 16:33quarters people remember and that's why
359. 16:35the rule exists in our memory.
360. 16:39This year's third quarter was 42.78%.
361. 16:42It sits in the big group, not in the
362. 16:44small one. That's a real point in its
363. 16:47favor.
364. 16:49It's just not a promise.
365. 16:54Last time I gave you a price of
366. 16:55admission to take Bitcoin off the market
367. 16:57the way the 2012 having did 12.5% of
368. 17:01every coin in existence per year, you
369. 17:04need to absorb about 2.5 million Bitcoin
370. 17:06a year spread over 252 trading days.
371. 17:11I know Bitcoin trades 365 days a year,
372. 17:14but work with me here.
373. 17:16>> [laughter]
374. 17:17>> spread over 252 trading days. At
375. 17:20September's close, that's $833 million a
376. 17:24day. It was $855 million on September
377. 17:2824th. The bar came down because the
378. 17:30price came down. That's the number I
379. 17:32told you to check every morning. And
380. 17:34I've been checking it, too.
381. 17:36Now, the buyers and also why trading
382. 17:39days.
383. 17:41Yes, it's about ETFs.
384. 17:43Far side tracks spot Bitcoin ETF flows
385. 17:46every day. October 1st plus $12.7
386. 17:49million. October 2nd about $190 million.
387. 17:53Monday minus about $90 million. Tuesday
388. 17:57plus $119 million.
389. 18:00That averages to about $80 million a
390. 18:02day.
391. 18:04And Strategy, Michael Sailor is the
392. 18:07executive chairman of Strategy, the
393. 18:09largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
394. 18:11Strategy publishes every purchase. In
395. 18:14early August, it sold 1638 Bitcoin, then
396. 18:171690. Since then, it has bought $4,63,
397. 18:21then 950, then 1665, then 334 on Monday.
398. 18:27That's about $618 million over five
399. 18:30weeks. So, call it $25 million a trading
400. 18:34day.
401. 18:35Add them up roughly. That's about $105
402. 18:38million a day against $833
403. 18:42million. [clears throat]
404. 18:44Last month, the buyers were running at
405. 18:4617th of the pace. Now, it's closer to
406. 18:491/8.
407. 18:50That's not a good trend. The bar got
408. 18:53lower and the buyers still lost ground.
409. 18:56And look at September 30th, the day the
410. 18:58street closed. The ETFs had a net
411. 19:01outflow of $148.7
412. 19:04million.
413. 19:05The pattern finished on a day the buyers
414. 19:07walked out.
415. 19:09Now the stretch trigger. Stretch or STRC
416. 19:13is this is Strategy's preferred stock.
417. 19:15Think of it as a share that behaves like
418. 19:17a bond and pays a dividend of right now
419. 19:1912% a year. Strategy has said it will
420. 19:23issue more stretch and use the money to
421. 19:25buy Bitcoin once STRC trades back at
422. 19:28$100.
423. 19:30The logic is simple. Above $100,
424. 19:33strategy can sell new stretch, take the
425. 19:35cash, and buy Bitcoin. That's the whole
426. 19:37purpose of the instrument. Below $100,
427. 19:40every new share raises less money than
428. 19:42it promises to pay back. So, the machine
429. 19:44stays off. The last time Stretch held
430. 19:47par, Bitcoin treasuries counted 22,66
431. 19:51Bitcoin bought in rapid succession.
432. 19:55At today's price, that's about $1.84
433. 19:58billion.
434. 20:00It's a lot of Bitcoin.
435. 20:02against $833 million a day, it's a
436. 20:05little over two days.
437. 20:07Here's how Fonglay put it himself.
438. 20:10>> We never intend to move the price up or
439. 20:12down or we don't intend to move the
440. 20:14price up or down when we buy Bitcoin or
441. 20:16we sell Bitcoin. Um, and this is the
442. 20:19point like Bitcoin doesn't need us. I
443. 20:22get we cumulatively we own 4% of
444. 20:24Bitcoin. That's a lot, right? But but
445. 20:27we're we're here and we've been the
446. 20:28success that we are because of Bitcoin,
447. 20:30not the other way around.
448. 20:32>> I mean, he's right. And that cuts both
449. 20:34ways. Strategy can't carry this alone.
450. 20:38Neither can the ETF at $80 million a
451. 20:40day. It takes both running hot at the
452. 20:44same time. On their good days, the ETFs
453. 20:47can move. On September 22nd, they took
454. 20:50in $714.7
455. 20:52million in a single session. Put a run
456. 20:56of days like that next to strategy with
457. 20:57its flywheel back on and the $833
458. 21:00million line is within reach. Not this
459. 21:03week, but within reach.
460. 21:07So, the pattern has a price. The price
461. 21:08is public and right now nobody's paying
462. 21:11it.
463. 21:15If you read that chapter title like Buzz
464. 21:16Lightyear, you're with me. If you
465. 21:19didn't, I'll give you a chance. Just
466. 21:25true for 2026 and beyond. Yeah,
467. 21:31Tim Allen is a singular voice. Okay,
468. 21:34we're in my take. My take is always my
469. 21:35opinion. I look at possible future cases
470. 21:38and give some odds. They are
471. 21:39projections.
472. 21:41Treat them as such.
473. 21:4310% that Bitcoin closes above $457,000
474. 21:46by April 9th, 2027. That's 190 days from
475. 21:50October 1st, the same distance as the
476. 21:522012 peak, and 25% that it gets there
477. 21:56before the end of 2027.
478. 21:58Those are the same odds I gave you on
479. 22:00September 24th when the target was
480. 22:02$548,000.
481. 22:04The streak came in smaller, so the price
482. 22:06came down. The case didn't change, it
483. 22:09just got resized.
484. 22:12And falsifiers,
485. 22:14the big one is the buyer. If ETF and
486. 22:17strategy buying together average $833
487. 22:20million a trading day for a full month,
488. 22:23I'm too low. And I'll come back on with
489. 22:25a big old smile on my face. And I will
490. 22:27say that right here. If they run above
491. 22:30$500 million a day for two straight
492. 22:32weeks, that's the early warning. And
493. 22:34I'll be back to talk about it. If none
494. 22:37of that has happened by December 31st,
495. 22:392026,
496. 22:41I'm probably going to cut my numbers. A
497. 22:44pattern with no engine under it is a
498. 22:45pretty chart.
499. 22:47One thing that won't move me, I read
500. 22:49October. 2012 had one. It's part of the
501. 22:52record. When stretch crosses $100, I'll
502. 22:56put strategies buying against that $833
503. 22:59million line and show you how much of
504. 23:01the gap it actually closes.
505. 23:06I expect there's going to be an appetite
506. 23:07inside the headquarters of strategy in
507. 23:10MLAN, Virginia to buy by by
508. 23:15in 2012. The signal made you wait. In
509. 23:182026, the signal is waiting too on a
510. 23:21buyer.
511. 23:22I'm Dana Love. My book is on Amazon.
512. 23:25Thanks for inviting me on to your
513. 23:26screen. I'll see you in the next one.