🚨 Bitcoin CRASH Coming After November 3rd MIDTERMS?! History Says WATCH OUT! — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00The next four to six weeks, I think, are
2. 0:02the danger zone for Bitcoin where we
3. 0:04could still see a major shakeout. We're
4. 0:07in the middle of October right now. We
5. 0:09obviously have Trump's midterms on
6. 0:11November 3rd. And then on November 11th,
7. 0:15we have the confirmation if Strategy,
8. 0:19the company, will be removed from the
9. 0:22indices or not, which might potentially
10. 0:24have a very negative impact on strategy.
11. 0:27And who knows, maybe it might even force
12. 0:29them to take a more cautious approach or
13. 0:32maybe they have to sell Bitcoin. They're
14. 0:33claiming they don't, but who knows,
15. 0:35right? So, right now, uh you can see
16. 0:37Bitcoin is trading at $82,000.
17. 0:40We have a nice little heat map here in
18. 0:41the market map of everything. It's
19. 0:43pretty green today, actually. It's
20. 0:45pretty nice. Um we have the fear and
21. 0:47greed here at 59. And if you're
22. 0:50wondering what this cool little
23. 0:51dashboard is over here, this is actually
24. 0:54on central command, our trading
25. 0:56terminal. We've added this markets page
26. 0:58and you can actually customize all of
27. 0:59this. You can kind of edit your own
28. 1:01layout, which indicators and stuff you
29. 1:03want here, which data. It's all 100%
30. 1:05free. If you want access to this, I'll
31. 1:07put the link in the description down
32. 1:09below how you can get started. But this
33. 1:10is a really cool way to like kind of
34. 1:12start out or have it open if you have a
35. 1:14second or a third screen. Um, you can
36. 1:16instantly see what's happening here like
37. 1:18BTC funding, the open interest. We even
38. 1:20have the heat map over here. So, for
39. 1:22example, changing it to like the 7-day,
40. 1:24these are obviously the liquidation
41. 1:26levels. Um, and you can, you know,
42. 1:28increase that a little bit to see really
43. 1:30where the heavy liquidations lie. And
44. 1:32you can see that's around $85,000.
45. 1:35So, if the price were to squeeze up to
46. 1:36about $85,000, um, that would liquidate
47. 1:39a bunch of shorts there. You can also
48. 1:41easily change it to like the 30-day and
49. 1:43the 3month. Um, you can see even up to
50. 1:4689,000. I don't know if they're going to
51. 1:48squeeze it there. We we'll look at the
52. 1:50charts in a bit, but that's a
53. 1:51possibility. It just helps you keep an
54. 1:53eye on uh kind of where all the the
55. 1:56information lies. So, we also have the
56. 1:59Coinbase premium, which you can see is
57. 2:01negative, which means there's been a lot
58. 2:03of selling on Coinbase. You have the
59. 2:05dollar index over here, the overall open
60. 2:07interest here on Bitcoin. ETF flows that
61. 2:10you can see, and these are obviously
62. 2:11from SEC filings. You can see here the
63. 2:1413 US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the quarter
64. 2:17that ended. Um, so you can see you have
65. 2:19all this information and I think from
66. 2:21now on more and more I will just start
67. 2:22videos with a quick overview like this.
68. 2:24Again, if you want access this is just
69. 2:26one of the features. It's completely
70. 2:27free. I'll put the details in the
71. 2:28description down below. So you can see
72. 2:31here Bitcoin is trading at around
73. 2:32$82,000. This is the weekly chart of
74. 2:35Bitcoin. We have the 50WE simple moving
75. 2:37average over here. Now, while we can say
76. 2:41that technically being above the 50week
77. 2:44simple average is bullish technically,
78. 2:47um that's how I've been looking at it.
79. 2:49We also made a higher high, but we're
80. 2:52having a bit of a problem here where if
81. 2:53Bitcoin doesn't really see continuation
82. 2:56soon, we could potentially be looking at
83. 2:58a deviation here. You can see it's
84. 3:00sitting right at this level. 82,000 was
85. 3:02the May 2026 high, right? And we're
86. 3:05starting to drop a little bit. We could
87. 3:07technically retest this 50 simple moving
88. 3:10average. It's about 76,000. If we get a
89. 3:13weekly close below 76,000,
90. 3:16then we get back into full bare
91. 3:19territory. And it increases the
92. 3:21probability that this whole move from 57
93. 3:23to 87 was just a big scam pump, a bare
94. 3:27market rally where it took out the high,
95. 3:28made a deviation. And if we get back
96. 3:31below 76, it really does open up the
97. 3:33door and make it more likely that we
98. 3:36might even still see new lows. And like
99. 3:37I said, the next 6 weeks or so could be
100. 3:40the window where something like that
101. 3:42happens. You can see how quickly the
102. 3:44price pumped, right? It went from 63,000
103. 3:47to like 76,000 in a single week. It can
104. 3:50do the opposite, too, right? It could
105. 3:53have a $13,000 drop. I don't know what
106. 3:55the reason for that would be. um some
107. 3:57something with the economy, something
108. 3:59with Trump or the midterms, maybe some
109. 4:01escalation in the Middle East, maybe
110. 4:03whatever some crazy hack, who knows?
111. 4:05Whatever the reason is, but um that's
112. 4:08the probability. And based on the chart,
113. 4:1076K is key. All right, so at 76,000, if
114. 4:13you look on the low time frame, you
115. 4:14could potentially look for longs with
116. 4:16kind of a tight stop. Or if it goes
117. 4:19below, well, then I'm looking for shorts
118. 4:20all the way back down. And I still think
119. 4:23that is an actual possibility. Now, the
120. 4:25probabilities right now still favor the
121. 4:27upside as long as we're above a 76. So,
122. 4:30that's basically what we're looking at
123. 4:32right now. Now, I don't want to give too
124. 4:35much fear-mongering or bear porn, should
125. 4:37we say. But, one interesting little
126. 4:39thing that's a possibility. We all know
127. 4:41that price repeats in certain ways.
128. 4:43Patterns repeat, whether it's uh on
129. 4:46different time frames or different
130. 4:48pairs, everything like that. And you can
131. 4:49see here, I made the gray box. We had
132. 4:51this like little bare flag over here. We
133. 4:53dropped um we had a wick, we came down
134. 4:55and we went above the high and then it
135. 4:57dropped. Now we see something
136. 4:59potentially similar here. We had this
137. 5:00little bare flag, we dropped, we went
138. 5:02up, we went down, we went above and we
139. 5:04are sitting right now at that previous
140. 5:06high like right at this point and nobody
141. 5:09knows for sure. I mean, we just look at
142. 5:11the market, right? It's just it's just a
143. 5:14possibility. Who knows if it's going to
144. 5:15play out, but if we get below 76, like I
145. 5:18said, um this maybe increases and maybe
146. 5:21we see something like this. I would
147. 5:23actually like to see this. I would like
148. 5:25us to see 50,000 or below because it
149. 5:28would hit so many of the real criteria
150. 5:30for a proper bare market low. um where
151. 5:34in terms of price we went down enough
152. 5:36we'll probably see a bunch of real
153. 5:38liquidations this time like actually
154. 5:40people quitting the space maybe an
155. 5:42exchange going bust or some big company
156. 5:44or some big name going bust and then
157. 5:46things get interesting in the like
158. 5:4840,000s I don't know if we're going to
159. 5:50get it like I said maybe this time is a
160. 5:52little bit different the problem is if
161. 5:55we only had the shallow bare market
162. 5:57right so we didn't even draw down 60%
163. 5:59which is unusual compared to previous
164. 6:01bare cycles because last time it was
165. 6:0377%. The time before that in 2014 was
166. 6:0686%. So the problem with that is that it
167. 6:09potentially opens us up to something
168. 6:11like this if we do continue higher where
169. 6:13we fail around 100,000 and then continue
170. 6:16in an extended bare market which I would
171. 6:18prefer not to have. So it's actually
172. 6:20more bullish if we go down to new lows
173. 6:23first rather than us continuing higher
174. 6:25from here and potentially failing at
175. 6:28around that Fibonacci golden pocket
176. 6:29because that's that exact level, right?
177. 6:31If we take the Fibonacci golden pocket,
178. 6:33that's at around 105,000.
179. 6:35102 to 105,000. And you can see if we
180. 6:38were to go up and we did have a run, we
181. 6:41would take these highs and potentially
182. 6:43if it fails there, the the downside that
183. 6:46follows would be potentially worse and
184. 6:48we could have an extended like
185. 6:49multi-year bare market. And I don't
186. 6:51really want that personally. I mean,
187. 6:53there's still money to be made, but the
188. 6:54bare market just sucks, right? I think
189. 6:56we could all agree on that. Drop a like
190. 6:58if you think the bare market sucks
191. 7:00because I don't enjoy it too, right? I'm
192. 7:02just trying to interpret the charts. I'm
193. 7:03trying to preserve obviously my own
194. 7:05capital and I'm trying to be able to
195. 7:08position myself as best as possible. And
196. 7:10in a bare market, well, you don't really
197. 7:12want to be long on anything because the
198. 7:14prices end up going lower. But if the
199. 7:17charts show that, I mean, that's that's
200. 7:19what I've been doing, right? I interpret
201. 7:20the charts as I see them. And sure, uh,
202. 7:23I mean, we had this pump here and
203. 7:24technically maybe rubble, but um, I
204. 7:27would like to see us drop like the the
205. 7:29window would be perfect, right? If we
206. 7:30somehow something comes out, Bitcoin
207. 7:33drops to new lows, it drops to 50,000 or
208. 7:36in the 40,000s, uh, it scares everyone,
209. 7:39liquidates everyone over the next like 2
210. 7:40to 3 months, and then we can build a
211. 7:43proper bottom and hopefully have a new
212. 7:45bull cycle in like 2027 to 2029 where we
213. 7:48do indeed go all the way back up to new
214. 7:50all-time highs. and hopefully like 200
215. 7:52or 250,000 this time. So, this is
216. 7:56something we're going to know. We're
217. 7:58going to know very very easily as long
218. 8:00as we're above 76,000. Okay, we are
219. 8:02still technically bull. If that can hold
220. 8:04and say by mid December, so like 2
221. 8:06months from now, we didn't drop below
222. 8:0976,000. We're still above there. Then I
223. 8:11think I'm going to feel comfortable
224. 8:12saying, okay, well, the bottom was in at
225. 8:1457 and we're probably going higher from
226. 8:17here. It's it's a possibility, but
227. 8:19really we need about a 2-month window
228. 8:21for us to know and and maybe even sooner
229. 8:23than that. And below 76K, it opens up
230. 8:26the doors to new lows. Okay, so that's
231. 8:28basically how we're looking at it.
232. 8:30Nobody knows. I don't know for sure.
233. 8:31Your favorite influencer, other
234. 8:33YouTubers, uh macroeconomics experts,
235. 8:36like famous people on TV, nobody knows,
236. 8:38okay? The only people who might really
237. 8:40know are the insiders who manipulate the
238. 8:42market. And uh they're definitely not
239. 8:44going to go on YouTube and tell you what
240. 8:47the intention is. Um right like the
241. 8:50people I'm I'm sure there's people who
242. 8:51knew about this massive pump around the
243. 8:5460,000 a whole lot of exchanges
244. 8:56coordinated stuff. There were a lot of
245. 8:58buys across exchanges like major buys.
246. 9:00So there were people for sure in the
247. 9:01know and you could have kind of guessed
248. 9:04but from here it's pretty much anyone's
249. 9:06guess. That's why it's probabilities.
250. 9:07That's why it's certain levels. If we're
251. 9:09looking at Ethereum here on the weekly,
252. 9:11just to bring that up also is you can
253. 9:14see we have this high. We went above
254. 9:15this high and we are sitting right here.
255. 9:17Now, if we drop back below this current
256. 9:19level, say below 2350, this could have
257. 9:23been a deviation and again we could
258. 9:25still continue to new lows because we
259. 9:26have uh this over here. We have these
260. 9:29equal lows. Usually equal lows get taken
261. 9:31out, right? A matter of time in the same
262. 9:34way that these equal highs here got
263. 9:36taken out. a matter of time it went down
264. 9:38first but eventually um it took it out
265. 9:40right in the same way we have these
266. 9:42equal lows and we have this liquidity
267. 9:44here from 2022 and I think there's a
268. 9:46possibility that especially that that
269. 9:48chance increases once we go back below
270. 9:50about 2350 then it becomes a risk to the
271. 9:53downside to take out these and these
272. 9:55levels and potentially Ethereum still to
273. 9:57drop down below $1,000 there is still
274. 10:00that window the next two to three months
275. 10:02or so where something like that could
276. 10:04happen October is also kind of a
277. 10:07historically um volatile month for the
278. 10:10stock market which we're starting to
279. 10:11see. It's also um we have Trump
280. 10:14midterms. We have a bunch of stuff in
281. 10:16November. Remember last bare cycle we
282. 10:19also only bottomed in November. So
283. 10:21that's still potentially a month away.
284. 10:23Um the cycle before then we actually
285. 10:25only bottomed in December. So there's
286. 10:28still time. There's still a window for
287. 10:30kind of shakeout stuff to happen. And if
288. 10:32you look at I'm not going to go too much
289. 10:33into the altcoins, but let me just show
290. 10:35you for example here on XRP which I
291. 10:38think is also a nice example here. You
292. 10:40can see here and all of these charts are
293. 10:42weekly. This is also the weekly chart.
294. 10:44You can see here if this is a range
295. 10:46right from these lows over here in 2020
296. 10:49we had the bearish RSI divergence here
297. 10:51just taking out the all-time high. So
298. 10:53you can see these charts are everything.
299. 10:55It's really really everything. You just
300. 10:57have to understand the concept and you
301. 10:59have to understand how to interpret them
302. 11:02correctly at the right time which is
303. 11:03obviously easier said than done but
304. 11:05there's always some sort of logic. So,
305. 11:07we had this range, you can see here,
306. 11:08perfectly mid-range in this kind of test
307. 11:10pump in 2021. Came down, basically did
308. 11:13nothing. Massive pump, took out the
309. 11:14highs, right? Came back a second time,
310. 11:17bearish RSI divergence here on the
311. 11:19weekly and down we went. And you can see
312. 11:21here because we dropped so much on XRP.
313. 11:25Obviously, like wicks and and multi-week
314. 11:28rallies to the upside in bare markets
315. 11:30are completely normal. In fact, this is
316. 11:32exactly what happens. It it takes out
317. 11:35the people who short too much to the
318. 11:37bottom with too much size. These moves
319. 11:38to the upside, they they liquidate the
320. 11:40short traders and they trap people into
321. 11:42thinking we're back into a bull market
322. 11:44while we're not. So, what happened here?
323. 11:45If you zoom in, you can see it took out
324. 11:47these highs over here with just some
325. 11:49wicks and for now we're back below. So,
326. 11:51again, this a little deviation here
327. 11:53perfectly once again to the middle of
328. 11:55the range as you can see. So, this whole
329. 11:57range is valid. And if this setup plays
330. 11:59out like it does on smaller time frames,
331. 12:01we're looking at targeting the lows of
332. 12:03this range, which would be pretty wild.
333. 12:05That's like 13 cents. I don't know if it
334. 12:07gets that low. But you can see also what
335. 12:09happens often is these crazy impulses,
336. 12:12which is just a complete scam. By the
337. 12:13way, this is not like organic buying.
338. 12:15This this whole impulse from 50 all the
339. 12:17way up to $3.50. It's possible to
340. 12:20retrace. And in fact, a lot of the time
341. 12:22this does happen. The whole impulse gets
342. 12:24retraced. So that means we're looking at
343. 12:26going back to at least 55 cents and
344. 12:28maybe even taking out these lows or
345. 12:30maybe this low. So I would personally
346. 12:33only be interested in XRP if uh if it
347. 12:36drops to like below 30 cents which is
348. 12:38kind of like below these levels over
349. 12:40here. And for now this is at risk. So
350. 12:42again with an if then scenario we never
351. 12:45know what's going to happen. We never
352. 12:46know who's going to decide to scam
353. 12:48anything. But for now it rejected at
354. 12:49mid-range. So um for now the trend is
355. 12:52still down. I think we're going lower,
356. 12:54but that could be invalidated if we get
357. 12:56back above here. Um, and then go higher,
358. 12:58right? So, about 170. If it gets back
359. 13:01above 170, it's probably bullish and
360. 13:03we're probably targeting at least like
361. 13:05270 or higher. Until then, though, I'm
362. 13:07targeting uh the bottom of the impulse
363. 13:10or lower. And, you know, that could
364. 13:12happen in the next months. It could also
365. 13:14take 6 months. It could take 12 months.
366. 13:16You can see what happened in the
367. 13:17previous bare cycle, right? Even though,
368. 13:20let me draw here with a little
369. 13:22rectangle. Even though technically um
370. 13:25this was the bare market, right? Pretty
371. 13:28much until here. That's when Bitcoin
372. 13:30bottomed. You can see how long it
373. 13:31basically went sideways. So say we
374. 13:33bottomed in about November of 2022. The
375. 13:36impulse only started in November of
376. 13:382024. So it went sideways practically. I
377. 13:41mean, we had a little bit of chop, but
378. 13:42basically went sideways for two years
379. 13:44after the bare market bottomed. So, if
380. 13:46we've had our bare market bottom right
381. 13:48now, uh, say at the end of 2026, it
382. 13:52could be another two years of chopped
383. 13:55sideways and slower grind, that means
384. 13:56only by the end of 2028, we might see
385. 13:59another major impulse on XRP. And
386. 14:02obviously, there will be exceptions. Not
387. 14:03all altcoins are the same. But generally
388. 14:06speaking, if you look at the history, if
389. 14:07you look at the data, that's what
390. 14:08happened. And there's absolutely no rush
391. 14:11in my opinion to position um on any of
392. 14:14these altcoins right now, especially if
393. 14:16we might still see a bit of a flush.
394. 14:18Now, like I said, if we start to get
395. 14:20lower and we see levels of like 50
396. 14:22cents, 40 cents, 30 cents on XRP, we're
397. 14:25probably going to be on similar levels
398. 14:27way lower on most altcoins. And that is
399. 14:29in my opinion where it starts to get
400. 14:30interesting. But again, with this kind
401. 14:32of stuff, you'd need to have uh like a
402. 14:34multi-year, like a three, four year um
403. 14:38investment horizon because it could
404. 14:40literally chop for one or two years
405. 14:42before we see any movement on altcoins.
406. 14:44It's basically the same with Dogecoin
407. 14:46also. And you can see so nicely here
408. 14:48what's happening. Also, we got this
409. 14:50little pump here. We rejected at the
410. 14:5250we simple moving average right right
411. 14:55over here. And I think we're taking out
412. 14:56these lows at about 5 cents and maybe
413. 14:59all the way down to the start of the
414. 15:01impulse here of 2021, which is 2 and a
415. 15:04half cents. So that is still potentially
416. 15:06like a 30 to
417. 15:1060% drop. I mean, I have a I have a
418. 15:13little ruler tool here, so I don't know
419. 15:15why I'm doing it in my head. You can see
420. 15:16here that's a 38% to potentially wow 94%
421. 15:21drop um on Dogecoin if things really
422. 15:24start to get bad. And that would
423. 15:25obviously depend. I I think that happens
424. 15:27if Bitcoin drops to like 40,000s or
425. 15:3030,000s. I don't know if we're going to
426. 15:32get that, but based on the chart, we are
427. 15:34still in a downtrend here. You can see
428. 15:36very clearly like it's making lower
429. 15:38highs. Boom. Boom. Another one. And we
430. 15:42haven't had the final capital yet. We
431. 15:44haven't had that big flush. We have all
432. 15:46these high all these lows over here.
433. 15:48That's still liquidity.
434. 15:50And uh I mean typically markets bottom
435. 15:54with some sort of crazy capitulation.
436. 15:56It's been like that every single
437. 15:58previous bare cycle. And this time we
438. 16:00haven't had it. We haven't had the crazy
439. 16:02fear where everyone thinks it's going to
440. 16:04zero where we had crazy mass
441. 16:06liquidations. I mean, the last time we
442. 16:08had something like that was at the start
443. 16:09or basically the end of the bull market
444. 16:11started the bare market on the 10th of
445. 16:13October of 2025
446. 16:16when tons of liquid uh tons of
447. 16:18liquidations happened and lots of
448. 16:19leverage got wiped out. We haven't had
449. 16:21that yet and leverage is still again
450. 16:23pretty high in the system. So, I mean
451. 16:27that's not ideal. Actually, the one
452. 16:29thing that I pointed out, I made a post
453. 16:31about this like several weeks ago
454. 16:32already. As you can see in the previous
455. 16:34bare market um over here in uh 2022 in
456. 16:38October 2022, so that was almost the
457. 16:40bottom of the bare market. Dogecoin also
458. 16:43had a similar pump as we saw now. In
459. 16:46fact, it actually went up here like 150%
460. 16:49then it came all the way back down and
461. 16:50it spent um from November 2022 to
462. 16:54February 20, it spent 18 months trading
463. 16:56sideways before anything really happens.
464. 16:58So, we just had this little pump for a
465. 17:00few weeks here. It's getting rejected.
466. 17:02What if it just trades sideways for the
467. 17:04next 18 months before anything happens
468. 17:05and even if it goes lower? So again, for
469. 17:09me personally, I'm still happy to be
470. 17:10patient. I think we still have a risk
471. 17:12window of maybe till the end of the
472. 17:14year, something like that, where uh we
473. 17:17could still see a major major shakeout
474. 17:20and maybe a 50% flush in altcoins. And
475. 17:22if that happens, uh I want to start
476. 17:25potentially like buying over here. This
477. 17:27would be interesting for me. It would be
478. 17:28pretty uh extreme for the lows. I can go
479. 17:31and put limit buy orders. So, spot
480. 17:34there, no leverage, there's no
481. 17:35liquidation risk. And I can just layer
482. 17:37my uh my purchases on altcoins that I
483. 17:40like. For example, here, Dogecoin, boom,
484. 17:42boom, boom, boom, boom. I can start to
485. 17:43layer it from like 5 cents all the way
486. 17:45down to 1 cent. Obviously, with risk
487. 17:47capital, right, a percentage of my risk
488. 17:49capital. I'm not doing this with my
489. 17:51entire net worth. I'm not doing it with
490. 17:52loans, all that kind of stuff. But, uh,
491. 17:54let me see, you know, if I'm interested,
492. 17:56if I can buy a nice spot here. I have
493. 17:58like a four to five year window. So,
494. 17:59it's money I don't need. I'm happy to
495. 18:01leave it in the market for like the next
496. 18:03four years and see what happens. And
497. 18:05imagine I get an average price of like 4
498. 18:08cents or so um or 3 and 1 half cents or
499. 18:103 cents, whatever the case is with a
500. 18:12nice amount. If even if it goes back to
501. 18:1430 cents, right? That's that's a 10x
502. 18:17over here just by being patient by
503. 18:19placing the orders and then by waiting
504. 18:21for it to play out. You can see that's
505. 18:23not too crazy because that's exactly
506. 18:25what it did last time. It went here um
507. 18:27from the previous bare market lows all
508. 18:30the way up. It basically did a 7x over
509. 18:32here. Um if we if you catch the real
510. 18:36bottom, I don't know, maybe it's a 5x,
511. 18:38whatever, right? But if you can do that
512. 18:40with a reasonable amount of size, I
513. 18:42mean, even $10,000 would turn into 50k.
514. 18:44Uh 50k would turn into 250k. 100k would
515. 18:47turn into half a million dollars, right?
516. 18:50And then at least like whatever happens,
517. 18:52we don't know the future. It could take
518. 18:53like multiple years chopping around
519. 18:55here, but at least you bought relatively
520. 18:58low compared to where it's been since
521. 18:59like 2020, right? And the same thing
522. 19:02obviously applies to all these different
523. 19:03kinds of altcoins. So, this was a bit of
524. 19:05a longer video. I will go into more
525. 19:07detail into like altcoins and stuff
526. 19:09inside my VIP. I'm going to do like a 10
527. 19:11coin report of uh 10 different coins
528. 19:13that I'm going to be writing uh about
529. 19:15that I want to be buying during the next
530. 19:18uh several weeks if this capitalization
531. 19:20happens. And I will be opening my VIP
532. 19:22again to the public with a Black Friday
533. 19:24special offer November 1st. Stay tuned
534. 19:26for that. I will announce that then. I
535. 19:28hope you enjoyed this. Let me know in
536. 19:31the comments down below if you have any
537. 19:32questions, if you agree with me, if you
538. 19:34think we're still going to see lower or
539. 19:35not. I believe we still have that risk
540. 19:37window for the next 2 to 3 months. Let's
541. 19:39see what happens. Drop a like down
542. 19:42below. Subscribe if you're not following
543. 19:44yet.