BITCOIN CONFIRMOU O BULL MARKET NO GRÁFICO TRIMESTRAL? — Transcript

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1. 0:00So, crypto, we are still in the same
2. 0:02boat; there is no definition here yet.
3. 0:05The market brought a short-term
4. 0:07breakout rally, but then it got
5. 0:08swallowed by selling, right? I saw
6. 0:11Smart Money selling, uh, the breakout
7. 0:14bar here. It doesn't mean anything, it
8. 0:18just means a sideways market, still
9. 0:20undefined. Anything can happen. We
10. 0:23still don't have a structure to
11. 0:25maintain the rally, it was just a false
12. 0:28move, as expected, right? I mentioned
13. 0:31on Monday that I was expecting the
14. 0:33sideways trend to continue this week,
15. 0:35and there's nothing new for crypto,
16. 0:37okay? Uh, I would just be careful with
17. 0:40cryptos that have already risen very
18. 0:42strongly. If the market here starts to
19. 0:46create too much resistance, as it has
20. 0:48been doing, these various altcoins
21. 0:50could give back a large part of recent
22. 0:53gains and correct significantly, okay?
23. 0:56So, uh, cryptos in the short term gave
24. 1:00this bullish intention on the 4-hour
25. 1:03chart. I saw a lot of people getting
26. 1:05excited abroad, I knew it was a trap,
27. 1:07which is why I didn't even get excited.
28. 1:09It hit 85,600 and rejected strongly. It
29. 1:13may still go back up and retest this
30. 1:16region once more or a few more times,
31. 1:18okay? And I still can't say if it will
32. 1:22bring a drop now or not, okay? Ah, the
33. 1:26only thing I know is that Smart Money
34. 1:29is squeezed, meaning they would need to
35. 1:33cause drops to close short positions at
36. 1:36a profit, okay? So, for now, there is
37. 1:40no very clear definition in the crypto
38. 1:42market. It is still too early to talk
39. 1:45about the weekly, right? Uh, but if the
40. 1:49weekly loses, if it, if it were to lose
41. 1:53the previous highs, then we could see
42. 1:56some trap happening and it retesting
43. 1:59lower levels again. But for now it's
44. 2:04still too early to tell; it formed a
45. 2:06range to keep rising, and now it's
46. 2:07ranging throughout this week to
47. 2:09increase the probability of a rise. The
48. 2:13only issue that gets to me a bit is
49. 2:15that we are at RSI 60 on the weekly,
50. 2:21which for me is not a very reliable
51. 2:24region to buy, so I wouldn't buy crypto
52. 2:28now, because RSI 60 often triggers
53. 2:31corrections at the start of a trend. So
54. 2:36, for example, in the last cycle, when
55. 2:42the RSI reached, the weekly RSI reached
56. 2:4631, 31,000, we had a considerable drop
57. 2:51to 24, which was kind of a scary drop.
58. 2:55Why? Because it, it, it made a bull
59. 2:58trap, right? It made a bull trap and
60. 3:01pushed the price down. Many people
61. 3:04believed it would plummet from here
62. 3:07again. And here in this situation, the
63. 3:10market held up. Other times we had a
64. 3:15test of 60, we had the 60 region during
65. 3:19the great pandemic crash, which was a
66. 3:23huge search for liquidity, okay? So,
67. 3:29the RSI 60, the weekly RSI 60, it
68. 3:32worries me because I can't really tell
69. 3:36if I know it's a bull market, okay?
70. 3:42Here, here I also knew it was already a
71. 3:44bull market, right? Regardless of when
72. 3:46the big drop comes. The issue is that
73. 3:49when we are in this RSI 60 region,
74. 3:52major capitulations, right, they can
75. 3:55happen at this level. Surpassing this
76. 3:58level decreases the risk of a major
77. 4:00capitulation. But since it's holding
78. 4:03this level and can't get past it, right
79. 4:05, we always have to be humble in the
80. 4:07face of uncertainty. So, even though it
81. 4:11broke the most important moving
82. 4:13averages for me and, in my opinion, it
83. 4:15is completing a quarter of bull,
84. 4:17meaning it's signaling we are already
85. 4:19in a bull market. Well, for me, we are
86. 4:21already in a bull market, okay? For me,
87. 4:24Augusto, we are already in a bull
88. 4:25market. The whole issue is that in this
89. 4:30weekly RSI 60 region, many times
90. 4:33capitulations have started in this part
91. 4:36. Will a capitulation happen? I don't
92. 4:40know, because I'm not smart money. What
93. 4:42I see is that smart money is trapped
94. 4:45and it needs a drop to get out with a
95. 4:49profit. And so, when will this drop
96. 4:52come? I don't know. Could it happen in
97. 4:57early October? It could. I will explain
98. 5:01the reason why I believe it could
99. 5:03happen in October. So here is the thing
100. 5:07. Unfortunately, many people fell into
101. 5:09this trap of today's rise, early in the
102. 5:11morning, right? Uh, I am immune,
103. 5:17because since it's a barbed-wire market
104. 5:20, still a sideways movement, not a
105. 5:24short-term trend, I'm relaxed, because
106. 5:28we are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 days
107. 5:31in a drop and the drop hasn't
108. 5:34accelerated; so, it held, went sideways
109. 5:38, the price got stuck between 28 and 29
110. 5:42thousand. So, when the market is stuck
111. 5:49like this, it means that soon we will
112. 5:52have market manipulation, right? We
113. 5:55already have, we already had intraday
114. 5:57today, this here is market manipulation
115. 6:00, okay? We already had, uh, also on
116. 6:04Monday a little bit of market
117. 6:06manipulation too from 4 AM there until
118. 6:12until Tuesday 8 AM. So we also saw a
119. 6:15little manipulation. Now there was
120. 6:17manipulation too. So we know that Smart
121. 6:20Money is present making decisions. I
122. 6:24saw Smart Money selling, for example,
123. 6:26Hyperliquid, selling Bitcoin, selling
124. 6:28Ethereum today, meaning there's selling
125. 6:30pressure, right? Uh, a resistance is
126. 6:35being formed, and every time it tries
127. 6:37to break out a little, it dumps, okay?
128. 6:40So, every time the market shows a
129. 6:42little rise, it gives it back, you know
130. 6:45? That signifies the characteristic of
131. 6:48a sideways, barbed-wire market. Well
132. 6:52then, looking at it graphically, I take
133. 6:55the sideways channel here, and we are
134. 6:57still in a sideways channel, okay? So I
135. 7:01don't know if it will bring about a
136. 7:02drop today yet. I don't think so. I
137. 7:05think it's more unlikely to bring a
138. 7:07continuation of the downtrend today and
139. 7:09lose 82,900. Anything can happen, it
140. 7:12could happen, but it's a bit less
141. 7:14likely. I think it will keep the
142. 7:16sideways movement in here. The RSI is
143. 7:19stuck at 50, right? Institutional
144. 7:22accumulation is happening. So, the one
145. 7:24doing this here is the institution.
146. 7:26They're selling today, and then they
147. 7:27buy it back. Then they keep pushing and
148. 7:30making this barbed-wire movement,
149. 7:32affecting everyone who is trading with
150. 7:35leverage. So you can't trade with
151. 7:37leverage in the period we are in, okay?
152. 7:41Including whoever shorts this bar here
153. 7:43will probably be swallowed, because the
154. 7:45market can rise again for the rest of
155. 7:48the week, at least to exceed 85,600,
156. 7:50catch the bears from this bar again,
157. 7:52and continue the price manipulation,
158. 7:54okay? Because it's a sideways week,
159. 7:58it's a week of trend migration. So then
160. 8:02I take 3 months, right? Why do I
161. 8:05believe? Not why do I believe, but why
162. 8:07are we already in a bull market, right?
163. 8:10Because we already broke all the
164. 8:12important moving averages, because my
165. 8:15setup here already warned that that
166. 8:18month, the last three months, was a
167. 8:20bottom, okay? One of the bottoms. It
168. 8:23doesn't mean it will be the last bottom
169. 8:25. Why? Because I like to assess whether
170. 8:29it's a bull market or not when I see
171. 8:32the quarterly close. So, you can
172. 8:34clearly see that today's quarterly
173. 8:37close will want to close above the
174. 8:39previous high, which is 68, okay? 68,
175. 8:43so that was the last top, uh, the last
176. 8:46quarterly top close, and every bull
177. 8:49market of ours starts with 3 months of
178. 8:53gains, all of them. So, in every bull
179. 8:56cycle, you will see 3 months of gains.
180. 9:01It just happens that, just like in 2020
181. 9:03, we could still have capitulation like
182. 9:06in 2023, if the market wants. So, if
183. 9:11the market wants to, if smart money
184. 9:13wants to, it could trigger a
185. 9:15capitulation, aiming for the low of the
186. 9:18quarterly opening bar. So, it would be
187. 9:21like looking for a level below 59.
188. 9:24Could it happen? It could, but it's
189. 9:26unlikely. It happened once in 6 years,
190. 9:30okay? Once in 6 years. Before that, I
191. 9:34don't recall, I don't remember, because
192. 9:35I entered the market in 2016. So,
193. 9:37before 2016, I don't know if it
194. 9:39happened. But the quarterly bar is very
195. 9:43important for us, it's completing. So
196. 9:47for me, this is a confirmed bull market
197. 9:50, meaning the sequence of the next
198. 9:52quarterly bars is positive for me,
199. 9:54although, you know, there might be a
200. 9:56sideways semester, three months
201. 9:58sideways, anyway, it will oscillate
202. 10:00between three months sideways and then
203. 10:02a month, three months of strong growth,
204. 10:05then another three months of strong
205. 10:07growth, anyway, it keeps switching that
206. 10:09trend, right? But the quarterly chart
207. 10:13closed in a bull market here. Period.
208. 10:16So now I view every big drop I see this
209. 10:20way, regardless of whether it's a small
210. 10:23drop to 72 or a big drop to 52, it
211. 10:26doesn't matter. Any and all dips I see
212. 10:31as buying opportunities. So I don't
213. 10:34know if it will drop now, I don't know
214. 10:37if it will aim for 92 or even exceed 92
215. 10:39. The uptrend channel is here. We have
216. 10:42the validation of this uptrend channel,
217. 10:44right? You have to put at least two
218. 10:46touches here. So the uptrend channel is
219. 10:49truly here and the main resistance is
220. 10:51these regions where it's already
221. 10:53touching. We then had two major points
222. 10:56of profit taking. So, on September 22nd
223. 11:00, smart money took profits, and on
224. 11:03August 21st, okay? So, August 21st,
225. 11:0724th, and September 22nd were smart
226. 11:09money profit-taking points. The
227. 11:12institutions took profits, okay? How do
228. 11:15I know this? Because not just by
229. 11:18looking at the SOPR, right? But for
230. 11:20example, since September 22nd, do you
231. 11:22think Bitcoin has gone up or not? What
232. 11:25do you think? Since September 22nd, has
233. 11:28Bitcoin gone up or not? No. Okay? So it
234. 11:33didn't surpass 87, which was the last
235. 11:35smart money profit-taking sell-off. Ah,
236. 11:40before that, then, it was August 22nd,
237. 11:43right? August 22nd was here in this
238. 11:46region, it was this sale and the 24th,
239. 11:52if I'm not mistaken, here, so we had
240. 11:54two institutional sales in this region.
241. 11:58The institutions started selling
242. 12:00between 78 and 82, and then they had
243. 12:03another selling pressure now at 87,
244. 12:05okay? It could retest that region, it
245. 12:10easily could. Since we’re still in a
246. 12:14daily move, it could still look for, I
247. 12:17don't know, until October 8th, a high
248. 12:20around the 88, 92, 91 region, anyway.
249. 12:24And then it could have another spike in
250. 12:26profit taking, okay? What catches my
251. 12:30attention is the following: if it
252. 12:31reaches this high of about 92, and the
253. 12:35profit taking gives us another lower
254. 12:38high than the previous one, okay?
255. 12:41We’ll be very close to capitulation.