Bitcoin, Altcoins & XRP Hold Form as CHAOS Hits Wall St, Rotating Equity Theory Enters First Chapter — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
2. 0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
3. 0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
4. 0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
5. 0:23at the Bitcoin price chart as at least
6. 0:25while I'm recording we're a little bit
7. 0:27green coming off of yesterday's do we
8. 0:29call it a bloodbath over there in the
9. 0:31United States stock market with the Dow
10. 0:33Jones down 1,800 points, the S&P 500
11. 0:36down 334 and the Nasdaq down 1,800.
12. 0:41They're at 6.36%
13. 0:43yesterday for the NASDAQ. We saw
14. 0:45semiconductors take a big plow here
15. 0:47yesterday which of course is your big
16. 0:49names like Micron and Nvidia.
17. 0:51essentially the railroad of the AI
18. 0:53trade. Now, I brought this up in
19. 0:55Monday's video. I brought this up in
20. 0:57markets in the morning, wrote about it
21. 0:58in my newsletter, of course, as we hit
22. 1:00this extreme over in here for the
23. 1:02semiconductors. That's also right where
24. 1:04we saw Bitcoin reverse off of its low.
25. 1:07Now, this has been an interesting market
26. 1:08that we've been in for the last 5 years
27. 1:10because we've dealt with a really crazy
28. 1:12breadth dynamic. People may be sick of
29. 1:14hearing that term and the reality is
30. 1:16that's the market we've dealt with for
31. 1:18five years and it's why crypto behaved
32. 1:20so oddly there at the end of 2025
33. 1:22incapable of being able to expand into
34. 1:25new all-time highs for the altcoin
35. 1:27market which is the first time that has
36. 1:29ever happened for the altcoin market in
37. 1:30any type of cycle. It's one of the
38. 1:32reasons why people also thought I was
39. 1:34absolutely nuts back in here for
40. 1:36presenting the bare case for the
41. 1:37cryptocurrency market to enter into a
42. 1:39bare market. But it all comes back to it
43. 1:41being an incredibly complicated picture.
44. 1:44And sometimes it feels like magical
45. 1:45unicorn fairy dust because what's
46. 1:47happening in the stock market right now
47. 1:48is something that has been eating away
48. 1:50at me for really the last couple of
49. 1:52weeks. And I couldn't find anything else
50. 1:54more important to talk about in my
51. 1:56newsletter than to say, "Hey,
52. 1:58semiconductors and S&P 500 topping." and
53. 2:01really spent about 80% of this
54. 2:03newsletter diving into that saying that
55. 2:05are we about to see the popping of the
56. 2:07S&P 500 in the United States stock
57. 2:09market and my thoughts are that we are
58. 2:12that the pop is not too far away.
59. 2:14discussed all of the stuff in here about
60. 2:16how Bitcoin reached its extreme as these
61. 2:18semiconductors were reaching their
62. 2:20extremes and then the reversal of
63. 2:22Bitcoin happens on the reversal of the
64. 2:23semiconductors and saying that I'm being
65. 2:25pretty direct in saying that I think we
66. 2:27are building a multi-deade top in the
67. 2:29stock market and we structurally have
68. 2:30produced the exact style of what bubble
69. 2:32tops look like along with collapsing
70. 2:33breath before it eventually pops. I'm at
71. 2:35a point where I just don't see how
72. 2:37upside could continue for the S&P 500
73. 2:39and that's my stand. But elaborating in
74. 2:42here about it being a rotating equity
75. 2:44top, which you guys have heard me say
76. 2:46many times here on the YouTube channel
77. 2:47and also in here saying, however, in
78. 2:49rotating tops, there are typically
79. 2:51phases. And certain parts of them can
80. 2:53be, for a lack of a better word,
81. 2:55sketchy. And I can't help but feel it in
82. 2:58my bones that the sketchy part could be
83. 3:00approaching in the coming months for the
84. 3:01stock market or at least for the S&P
85. 3:03500. So, as you guys know, my thoughts
86. 3:05have been that there's an issue with
87. 3:07breadth in the market. We watched this
88. 3:09entire run happen in here and we watched
89. 3:12the cryptocurrency market incapable of
90. 3:14being able to follow along with it.
91. 3:16Where in every past expansion, we always
92. 3:18see crypto move with the equity market.
93. 3:22Yet here in this rally, as you guys
94. 3:24know, we spent a lot of time looking at
95. 3:25why is the Russell 2000 not breaking out
96. 3:27with it? Why is, you know, crypto not
97. 3:29going with it? What's happening? Why is
98. 3:30this an S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow run? And it
99. 3:33all came back to a collapsing of breadth
100. 3:35in this semiconductor trade or Google's
101. 3:38Amazon's Nvidia's Broadcom. Essentially
102. 3:4140% of this market got consol or
103. 3:44essentially 40% of the S&P 500 got
104. 3:47consolidated into the top 10 names and
105. 3:50that figure has not been hit in nearly
106. 3:53100 years to have that much
107. 3:54consolidation. So when we look to past
108. 3:56market cycles and we say, "Hey, look,
109. 3:58crypto always runs when we go into these
110. 4:00expansions, yet we didn't do it here and
111. 4:03we never ended up doing it and we're
112. 4:05still stuck in there to this day, then
113. 4:07there has to be some type of thesis
114. 4:09built on a different type of macro
115. 4:11picture happening here to say, well,
116. 4:13something different's going to have to
117. 4:14play out." And that's where I keep
118. 4:15presenting the rotating equity top,
119. 4:17saying that there's going to have to be
120. 4:18this unwinding of Brent. However, what
121. 4:20typically happens if we're going to have
122. 4:21a top come into the S&P 500 is that
123. 4:24there's going to be this sketchy phase
124. 4:26in here where things get pretty volatile
125. 4:28and essentially the market has to kind
126. 4:30of wake up a little bit and say, "Wait a
127. 4:33minute, this trade is done and where all
128. 4:35the capital is allocated and smashed
129. 4:37into this asset class in here, the
130. 4:39semiconductor asset class. It's going to
131. 4:41have to try to find a home somewhere
132. 4:42else that the breadth of the market is
133. 4:44going to have to open." Right now,
134. 4:46semiconductors are already down 33%.
135. 4:49Nvidia went ahead and hit as low as 25%
136. 4:51moving down. But as bizarre as it may
137. 4:53sound, with the market dynamics changing
138. 4:56in macro markets and producing this
139. 4:58raging bubble over here in the S&P 500
140. 5:00and this collapsing of breadth where
141. 5:02midcaps and small caps never
142. 5:04participated, the crypto market never
143. 5:06participated. It all really consolidated
144. 5:08into the semiconductor trade. This is
145. 5:10really kind of a necessary phase of it
146. 5:13to have a rotation. We spent a lot of
147. 5:15time talking about the IGV and to me
148. 5:17this makes the most logical sense of
149. 5:19where the rotation takes place but also
150. 5:21it tactically all makes sense in here
151. 5:23and we've been tracking this very
152. 5:24closely. This is the Eyesshares expanded
153. 5:26tech software sector ETF and so for the
154. 5:29last 3 months we've been looking at this
155. 5:32thing in here saying hey you know
156. 5:33watching out for something like this to
157. 5:35come down into here before then trying
158. 5:38to shift its way back up and then we can
159. 5:40try to go for an expansion in the months
160. 5:41after that. But it's incredible now too
161. 5:44because we can just clearly see uh the
162. 5:46structural playout happen throughout in
163. 5:49here that now we're finally kind of
164. 5:51getting this kind of scare to show up in
165. 5:53here now. And so I don't know today if
166. 5:56this is going to end up being the true
167. 5:57bottom for the IGV or if it has to go in
168. 6:00here and we're going to kind of end the
169. 6:01week with a little bit more fear. the
170. 6:03stock market didn't start getting real
171. 6:04sketchy yesterday until the market
172. 6:06actually opened. And so we'll just have
173. 6:08to see how the rest of the day
174. 6:09progresses and how the market's going to
175. 6:11close out the weekly candle for
176. 6:12everything. Uh but this of course, you
177. 6:14know, produces max fear. And if we just
178. 6:16kind of hang out in here for a little
179. 6:17bit of time right in here, right, that
180. 6:19would leave enough time for people to
181. 6:21still believe, oh, the bottom of crypto
182. 6:22is not in. We're going to go to Goblin
183. 6:24Town. I and these are things really I've
184. 6:26warned about for the last couple of
185. 6:28months in here that we are going to see
186. 6:30a return of negative sentiment at some
187. 6:33point and we're really getting bombarded
188. 6:34with it right now with not only negative
189. 6:36price action now you have elections you
190. 6:38got people all in an uproar on both
191. 6:40sides you got an incredibly volatile
192. 6:42stock market with people scared you've
193. 6:43had the Binance hack you've had
194. 6:45everything to really perpetuate a lot of
195. 6:47this fear and certainly that's returning
196. 6:49back to the market and a lot of
197. 6:51confusion in the market too I totally
198. 6:53feel like I'm on this island all by
199. 6:55myself. Like, no one has ever put
200. 6:58together this picture that there was a
201. 6:59problem with the breadth in the stock
202. 7:01market. No one understood why we didn't
203. 7:03expand. No one understands why it's
204. 7:05necessary for the semiconductors to pop
205. 7:07because the breadth is so collapsed and
206. 7:09there needs to be a wakeup call that
207. 7:11happens to the market to say that trade
208. 7:13is done and for all this capital to
209. 7:14start flowing elsewhere and all this
210. 7:16attention to flow elsewhere. But except
211. 7:19for you guys cuz you hear me ramble
212. 7:20about it essentially all the time. But
213. 7:22it's kind of funny in crypto. you go on
214. 7:24on X and it makes it seem like it's been
215. 7:26this rager dump happening over here for
216. 7:28Bitcoin when it hasn't. It's still
217. 7:30really right here on top of this
218. 7:31September level. Uh back in 2023, of
219. 7:34course, we saw things like this as well.
220. 7:36We saw the banking scare right there
221. 7:38with SVB. Uh it comes down here and hits
222. 7:41the 200day moving average in there,
223. 7:43right? And these are all just important
224. 7:44things. Remember, we don't break above
225. 7:46the 50we moving average. We don't see
226. 7:48the the breadth open up in the market,
227. 7:50which we saw happen off the lows down in
228. 7:52here, just like we did back in 2023 to
229. 7:55mark our low. But the market's going to
230. 7:56get scared. The market's going to get
231. 7:58sketchy, right? And like I wrote, how
232. 8:00can we have a standard thesis for a
233. 8:01crypto market when we have a macro
234. 8:03market that is acting unlike anything
235. 8:04seen for decades when every crypto cycle
236. 8:07has behaved on a simple pattern of macro
237. 8:09expansions and we're dealing with a
238. 8:10highly complex different macro picture?
239. 8:12Frankly, we don't see anything really
240. 8:14different happening here in crypto than
241. 8:15we've seen happen in every single cycle
242. 8:17of the past when it comes to building
243. 8:19out our bottom. But I think we're kind
244. 8:21of entering into that phase where, you
245. 8:23know, there's a lot of wrongfooted
246. 8:24capital that happened down there at the
247. 8:25lows looking for 40 to 50K. We talked
248. 8:28all about this here in the 70s and in
249. 8:29the 80s. There's a lot of wrongfooted
250. 8:31capital and low conviction capital
251. 8:33that's being forced into positions right
252. 8:34now. And then you leave them with all
253. 8:36these really complex narratives right
254. 8:38now, right? had a Binance hack, but then
255. 8:40you see the stock market stuff happening
256. 8:42with elections happening all over the
257. 8:44place. And all of this was written, of
258. 8:45course, before the election like magical
259. 8:47unicorn fairy dust. But it takes a lot
260. 8:50of processing and uh belief and faith,
261. 8:52understanding of complex markets and
262. 8:54bubbles uh to have this thought process
263. 8:56of being like it's not going to be like
264. 8:582013, 2017, and 2021. And that's okay.
265. 9:01And it explains why 2025 didn't do what
266. 9:04everybody hoped it had done. But what
267. 9:06you'd be looking for is you'd be looking
268. 9:07for that AI trade, that semiconductor
269. 9:11trade to come to an end. And we've been
270. 9:13following this to say, hey, we know that
271. 9:15Bitcoin has been following along with
272. 9:17our IGV model. It's really been the same
273. 9:20trade all throughout in here. There's
274. 9:21nothing in here insinuating that IGV is
275. 9:24exploding or collapsing. It's really
276. 9:26just doing the thing we kind of sat
277. 9:27there and pondered for months on whether
278. 9:28or not this would end up showing up. And
279. 9:31as absolutely bizarre as it sounds,
280. 9:34there's a little level of excitement in
281. 9:36my voice about it happening. Not because
282. 9:40I'm like jumping for joy cuz I'm like
283. 9:42right. Um but I am jumping for joy
284. 9:45because it is right so far. This has
285. 9:47been a very complex topic to try to
286. 9:50forecast and think through and process
287. 9:52and understand the collapsing of
288. 9:54breadth. What elements need to happen?
289. 9:56What order of operations do they all
290. 9:58need to occur in? And so far, this is
291. 10:00really exactly how it would need to go.
292. 10:02We need an opening of breadth in the
293. 10:05market. And that typically takes this
294. 10:07kind of sketchy moment to show up in
295. 10:09macro markets. And there needs to be the
296. 10:11obvious signal to the world that
297. 10:13whatever it is, they're all
298. 10:14consolidating their capital in that that
299. 10:17trade is done and that that capital
300. 10:19needs to go find a new home because
301. 10:22we're not in expansionary cycles. We're
302. 10:24in something where the breath completely
303. 10:26collapsed and all the capital went and
304. 10:27hung out in the exact same place. And
305. 10:29now all that capital needs to kind of
306. 10:31wake up and say, "Wait a minute. We we
307. 10:33shouldn't be here anymore. Where should
308. 10:34we go?" And that's when we're saying,
309. 10:35"Hey, how you doing? We're over here."
310. 10:38So definitely nothing unusual over here
311. 10:40for Bitcoin happening in regards to
312. 10:42price action. And I think it's being
313. 10:43over glorified as a major dump happening
314. 10:46in here when at least at this point
315. 10:48right now it's really just, you know,
316. 10:49five waves. And as shown here, it's
317. 10:51really just back at the base of wave
318. 10:52four currently right now. You know,
319. 10:54altcoins and stuff, they're still just
320. 10:56traversing along in here exactly as they
321. 10:58always do. We keep kind of showing this
322. 11:00that in past cycles, it's taken till
323. 11:03around like the December time period
324. 11:04before things kind of wake up and people
325. 11:06are like, "Oh yeah, wait. I guess the
326. 11:08bottom is in." But we're just kind of
327. 11:09having to wait on that. And now it's
328. 11:10kind of making sense, too, right? And if
329. 11:12this has to keep doing this right in
330. 11:13here and then it's going to kind of
331. 11:14struggle out for a little while then you
332. 11:16know we can kind of shift up right then
333. 11:18a range builds and we talk about these
334. 11:20things too with XRP right like a range
335. 11:22eventually builds throughout in here
336. 11:24everybody gets overly excited but a
337. 11:25range starts to form something like this
338. 11:28right in here like if we just took time
339. 11:29equivalents right if all of this in here
340. 11:31for us took you know 3 months right
341. 11:33would that take another 3 to 6 months
342. 11:35for something like that and that's the
343. 11:36things we kept kind of talking about you
344. 11:38know then you can spend you know several
345. 11:39months kind of traversing around
346. 11:41building a new range in here and then
347. 11:42after that range is built you know then
348. 11:44you're looking of course you're looking
349. 11:45for the true expansion which at the same
350. 11:47time right what would we be looking for
351. 11:49over here we'd be looking for our true
352. 11:51expansion to be come in at the same time
353. 11:52and then all all things would make sense
354. 11:54right everything would be aligned
355. 11:56perfectly so I don't think this market
356. 11:58is acting weird in any way um I think
357. 12:00it's just a complex topic to wrap your
358. 12:03head around when people really look to
359. 12:04the models of 2013 17 and 2021 for
360. 12:07expansions and to know hey look there's
361. 12:09a reason why things didn't play out like
362. 12:11that in 2025. It was this breadth
363. 12:13collapse and now are we about to see the
364. 12:15breadth completely unwind and will it be
365. 12:17a rotational play? Will it find a new
366. 12:19home? And as we as weird as it is to see
367. 12:22a red candle emerge over here on the S&P
368. 12:24500, you know, my broader perspective
369. 12:26look says okay, we might be in it. You
370. 12:29know, the hard thing about stocks,
371. 12:31right? Like us crypton natives like we
372. 12:34are used to things happening very
373. 12:35quickly. We are used to something like,
374. 12:37oh, if this market's going to crash,
375. 12:38okay, it'll it'll take four days for the
376. 12:40whole thing to play out. It doesn't work
377. 12:42like that in stocks, right? Something
378. 12:45like this right in here taking 15 years
379. 12:47can be, you know, this type of bubble
380. 12:49can be printed in crypto in one year.
381. 12:51So, what would take, you know, a month
382. 12:52to transpire in the cryptocurrency
383. 12:54market could take a whole year to
384. 12:55transpire over there in the United
385. 12:57States stock market. So, it's very
386. 12:59unlikely this thing just keeps plowing
387. 13:01straight down in here. there's a lot of
388. 13:02levels to go down and trying to figure
389. 13:04out, hey, are we seeing the evidence of
390. 13:05the breadth start to really start to
391. 13:07shift its way out the risk curve during
392. 13:10these moments, but man, crazy uh with
393. 13:12what's been going on in my mind for the
394. 13:14last two weeks thinking about this stuff
395. 13:16nonstop and then opting to make that
396. 13:18really the entire newsletter issue and
397. 13:20then of course that being Monday's video
398. 13:22and then also Wednesday's markets in the
399. 13:24morning. I think we're seeing the first
400. 13:26signs. Um but of course everybody says,
401. 13:28"Well, I want to see the green candles
402. 13:30right now." But it's this big process
403. 13:32that's got to play out, right? We're
404. 13:33really trying to see the semiconductor
405. 13:35trade come to an end, the breadth to
406. 13:37stop chilling out here and to say, you
407. 13:38know what, I don't think the gains are
408. 13:40going to be there like we're used to.
409. 13:42And then for it to go find a new home
410. 13:44and so far so good. So, we'll see how
411. 13:47Friday kind of transpires and into next
412. 13:49week. I don't see anything abnormal
413. 13:50happening over here in the
414. 13:51cryptocurrency market. I think the fear
415. 13:53is over glorified in there. You know,
416. 13:55range lows are definitely very difficult
417. 13:57to predict, but it's having to have that
418. 13:58bigger time frame perspective. We don't
419. 14:00ever break through the 50week moving
420. 14:02average and the bottom already not be
421. 14:04in. We don't ever have the daily bread
422. 14:06break out and not already be in. We
423. 14:08don't come back up in here and start
424. 14:10playing on the upside of these things
425. 14:12after being in a bare market unless the
426. 14:14bottom is already in. The only thing
427. 14:16that's not in is investor confidence,
428. 14:18right? And that's of course what we
429. 14:20spent really the last two months talking
430. 14:21about. Be prepared. There will be the
431. 14:23sentiment return. Everybody's happy
432. 14:25golucky. Everybody's screaming new
433. 14:26all-time highs, but that sentiment will
434. 14:28return. I think we're kind of getting
435. 14:30into that moment right now. But I also
436. 14:32do feel like the first evidence of the
437. 14:34rotating equity top theory is starting
438. 14:37to play out in here. And it doesn't mean
439. 14:38it happens overnight. And it doesn't
440. 14:40mean the bottom of this stuff isn't in
441. 14:42in here yet, but the order in which they
442. 14:44are occurring with the semiconductors
443. 14:46topping, the SP topping, the IGV finally
444. 14:49giving us this pullback. These are all
445. 14:51really the phases we be looking for to
446. 14:52then enter into our next chapter. So
447. 14:55take a deep breath everybody. It's
448. 14:56expected to be sketchy out there in
449. 14:58stocks, but also expect things don't go
450. 15:00in a straight line down. When we start
451. 15:02getting this volatile, you know, where
452. 15:04stocks are down four and a half or 6 and
453. 15:051/2% in a day, the very next day you can
454. 15:07be up 3 and 1.5%. and it can just be
455. 15:10absolutely extremely volatile during
456. 15:12this. But I'm incredibly excited about
457. 15:14where we're at. So for me, I'm
458. 15:15practically practically all I'm over 95%
459. 15:18capital entered into the market as you
460. 15:20guys know at the bottom in here on the
461. 15:22capitulation day back in February. I
462. 15:24entered 25% entered another 25%
463. 15:26throughout in here and then I entered
464. 15:2830% all throughout right in here
465. 15:30concluding on July 1st on the very
466. 15:33bottom. Then it's been just kind of
467. 15:34chipping away at stuff throughout in
468. 15:36here. Right now I am at over 95%
469. 15:38entered. I only had 20% of my capital
470. 15:40remaining. So there's a small amount
471. 15:43left uh that would be used to catch any
472. 15:45type of like oh no candle that you know
473. 15:48push it down into here or something like
474. 15:49that. Uh but certainly I I won't be
475. 15:51holding that capital to try to get new
476. 15:53lows. That'd be insane to me. So
477. 15:54exciting time in the market. We'll see
478. 15:56how things transpire for the rest of
479. 15:58today to close out the week for the
480. 16:00stock market. But if you're out there
481. 16:01worrying or you're falling into that
482. 16:03fear trap or the sentiment swings that
483. 16:05we talked about ahead of time, just kind
484. 16:06of keeping a bigger picture perspective
485. 16:08in here, things are still acting normal.
486. 16:10Things are still acting normal. This is
487. 16:12to be expected. We're trying to see the
488. 16:14breadth unwind in here and the breadth
489. 16:15return to the rest of the market. And
490. 16:17these phases of IGV, our correlated
491. 16:19asset class, are doing precisely the
492. 16:21structures and moves that we would
493. 16:23anticipate and hope for for us to be
494. 16:25able to move to the next phase. So,
495. 16:26happy Friday. What a wild week, huh? So
496. 16:29last week's the Binance hack. This week
497. 16:31is the elections and then all types of
498. 16:33volatility over here in the US stock
499. 16:35market. But we'll see how it closes out
500. 16:36for the week and of course we'll hit the
501. 16:38ground running next week. So I hope that
502. 16:39you guys are doing well. I'm always
503. 16:40grateful that you do watch my YouTube
504. 16:42channel. I missed you guys last week
505. 16:44while I was in New York City for SW. But
506. 16:45it feels good to be back and looks like
507. 16:47I came back at just the right time. So
508. 16:49have yourselves a wonderful weekend. And
509. 16:51of course in that time if you get some
510. 16:53spare time, go read my newsletter that I
511. 16:55published at
512. 16:55blockchainbacker.substack.com.
513. 16:57I do audio record all of these as well.
514. 16:59It's got a 43 minute audio recording
515. 17:01where I go through them at the same
516. 17:03time. So, if you want to listen in your
517. 17:04car, your AirPods, while you're on a
518. 17:05walk, at the gym, there's a link down
519. 17:07here in the description of this video to
520. 17:09the newsletter at
521. 17:09blockchainbacker.substack.com.
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