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Bitcoin, Altcoins and XRP Right On Pace for Past Recoveries, Typical Wall of Worry, Macro to Lead — Transcript

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0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
0:16the blockchain backer bringing you the
0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
0:24at the Bitcoin price chart along with
0:26the total market cap of the
0:27cryptocurrency market. We'll peek over
0:29there at the XRP price chart while
0:31intertwining discussions of the macro
0:33picture as the crypto market has been
0:35pulling back for the last several weeks
0:37getting back to this 50week moving
0:39average here for the total market cap of
0:41crypto and Bitcoin sits there at 77,800
0:44as I record this Monday morning. Last
0:47week I was over there in New York City
0:48at Ripple Swell, which a few times every
0:51year I attend these conferences to get
0:53my feet on the ground and get a feel for
0:55what's going on in the cryptocurrency
0:57market at that time. Meeting people in
0:59person, being at these events is far
1:01different from what you actually see
1:02over there on crypto Twitter. And for
1:04the most part, the market was pretty
1:06tame until, of course, we had the
1:07Binance stuff happen there Thursday
1:09afternoon where Binance got hacked for
1:11about $6 billion. I think the
1:13authorities have come out and said it's
1:15North Korea. Binance paused withdrawals
1:17and deposits since then has reopened
1:19them. They seem to be pleased with how
1:21things were going. I'm not here to try
1:22to paint this in any type of light, good
1:24or bad. However, I did post over there
1:27on X on Halloween that the technical
1:29equivalent comparison of the Binance
1:31hack is the Silicon Valley bank scare in
1:33March of 2023. Technical and onchain
1:36bottom was already in social media panic
1:38during the wall of worry. Bitcoin is
1:40still $20,000 above the low with social
1:42media in disarray. If you remember that
1:44the Fed was like shutting down banks,
1:46market went panicked in here. We had
1:48already opened up our breadth and the
1:50bottom was marked for the market. The
1:51sell-off happened in here. I remember
1:53this really clearly cuz I was in Costa
1:54Rica on a mission trip at that time. But
1:56then of course we got past that after
1:57hitting the daily moving averages and
1:59then price pushed up even higher and
2:01then we were truly stuck in a range for
2:03about 6 months after that. Our current
2:05market has been very symbolic of that
2:07same period in there from back in 2022
2:10to 2023 that we really kind of fivewave
2:13push our way up in here similarly to
2:16what we've done here in 2026. Then the
2:19banking scare comes in as we go back to
2:21hit the averages hitting the averages
2:23and then ultimately right price pushed
2:25up and then it went into like a
2:26six-month range after that. But of
2:28course, we did have our breadth markers
2:29already come in here for the bottom of
2:31the market. And from the perspective of
2:33onchain losses, we were well beyond
2:35where more coins were in a loss than in
2:37a profit back here in 2022 and 2023.
2:40Pushed our way out of here. We had
2:41already fallen down in here for coins in
2:44a loss. Very symbolic of what we've
2:46already done here in 2026. We had more
2:48coins in a loss than in a profit. We've
2:50already fallen back in here. Working our
2:52way around in here. It's this exact same
2:53stuff right in here. This is the actual
2:55SVB banking scare that happened right
2:58around here after moving on from this
3:00phase and then being in here. And it's
3:02just the same stuff for the XRP price
3:04chart. We've actually even used this
3:05analogy as well for where we're at
3:07currently with XRP. As we know, this
3:09bare market lasted for, you know, year
3:10and a half. We've already done all the
3:12onchain losses and technical markers to
3:14show that as being the bottom. However,
3:16we could see that we do still range
3:17throughout in here. And I've brought
3:19this up in the last couple of weeks, an
3:20equivalent of a time guess, which I'm
3:23going to get time wrong like 99% of the
3:25time, but it's in no way out of line
3:28with what we historically do for these
3:30things. And that usually these bare
3:32markets, it becomes obvious to everyone
3:34usually sometime in December, late
3:36December here for the amount of time
3:38that we've been in this thing. But I've
3:39also shown like this is what can happen
3:41at lows down in here. and really even
3:44use this analogy of Bitcoin in this SVB
3:47banking scare for Bitcoin right
3:49throughout here. Right? This is where
3:50the market capitulates from. This is
3:52where the market capitulates from. And
3:54then notice this is the range that gets
3:56built throughout in here. Price shoots
3:58its way back to the top of this range,
4:01right? And here's the capitulation.
4:03There's FTX, right? Here's the
4:04capitulation. There's what do you want
4:05to what do we want to call this? We want
4:07to call it Michael Sailor selling. But
4:08in comes the SVB scare right in here.
4:12Then price pushes up higher, hits that
4:14range, and then establishes a new range.
4:16These are the same discussions in here
4:18that even if XRP gets out in here, it's
4:20unlikely to go straight into a bull
4:21market. It will likely also enter into a
4:23range. Uh, but this is exactly the same
4:26type of stuff that we've been talking
4:27about, including the SVB portion right
4:31there. So, in this video, we're going to
4:32try to paint kind of a picture of where
4:34we're at within the market cycle right
4:36now. Probably a good time to do it
4:37because, you know, for the last several
4:38weeks, you know, you say things over and
4:40over again, they become repetitive.
4:41people are kind of like uh who keep
4:43saying this and then we kind of get into
4:44the thick of the moment and then
4:45everybody's like memory just completely
4:47fades and the emotions all take over and
4:50so we'll just kind of paint the picture
4:52of where we're at. Now what happens in
4:54any type of pullback is people always
4:55get worried that oh no new lows are
4:57coming in the bare market's not over.
4:59Let's just show this right in here. Show
5:00me a time where we go we'll move over to
5:03the total market cap of crypto here.
5:04Show me a time where we go oversold then
5:07produce a bullish divergence and then
5:08break the 50week moving average and the
5:10bottom is not in. It doesn't happen.
5:12We've always had the bottom already be
5:14in. Show me a time where more coins go
5:17into a loss for Bitcoin on chain and
5:20then we drastically pull out of more
5:23coins being in a loss and a profit with
5:25that separation like we have in here or
5:27we have in here and the bottom not
5:29already being. We can also take off the
5:31Bitcoin being in a profit. shift over
5:32here to just looking at a loss, right?
5:34What did we get to? We got to like 10.8
5:37million coins in a loss back here in
5:39June and July. We talked about that.
5:41Living in that moment at that time. I
5:42was buying at that time. You can see
5:44once we go from these extreme numbers of
5:46being in a loss, we can pull all the way
5:48back down in here just like we did back
5:50in 2022 and 2023. Really in 2023 cuz
5:53this market took off January 1st. You
5:55can see once those coins fall all the
5:56way down in here or the coins in a loss,
5:58which essentially means that more people
6:00went into a profit in that moment, then
6:03you enter into a lot of ranging action
6:05happening throughout in here. Prices are
6:07a little volatile in here. Coins and a
6:08loss are a little volatile in here, but
6:10we're beyond the worst, right? Once you
6:11get all the way up in here for these
6:13extreme levels of losses, once you get
6:15there, that the bottom's just already
6:16passed, right? oversold, breaks the 50we
6:19past the moment of losses on chain and
6:22then of course we've had our breadth
6:24flicker on as we historically do to mark
6:26our actual low. Now the breadth has
6:29cooled off. So that's clearly going to
6:31mean sentiment is going to deteriorate
6:33which we talked about for a long time
6:34leading up to that for the last month
6:36and a half. Sentiment will deteriorate
6:38during an uphill climb or a wall of
6:40worry climb. But this has never been our
6:43marker of expansion. This has simply
6:45been our marker of the low. We've
6:47brought this chart up many times to
6:48prove that this is not a marker of
6:50expansion right now because the Bitcoin
6:52dominance has not budged. What we
6:54typically see for expansions is we see
6:57macro lead the way, we see Bitcoin
6:59follow and then we see the altcoin
7:01market follow behind. We know this has
7:03been very symbolic of past bottom
7:05markers rather than expansions in the
7:07market because of how the altcoin market
7:09reacted off the low with Bitcoin that
7:11both of them moved down to the
7:13capitulation level or moved up to our
7:16capitulation level that took place back
7:17in January and February of earlier this
7:19year to go find the resistance levels.
7:21So there was no separation that happened
7:23here between the altcoin market and
7:25between Bitcoin which is why there's no
7:27separation here in the Bitcoin
7:28dominance. there wasn't evidence of some
7:30type of expansion happening. More so
7:33that we've just marked the low of the
7:35market rather than an expansion. And
7:36I've tried to like harp on that for the
7:38last several weeks, if not months, of be
7:40careful of timing expectations, be
7:42careful of the hype that's being
7:43presented to you because there's no
7:45evidence that this is actually an
7:46expansion. And it's likely going to take
7:48the macro picture to be able to do that
7:50because it always does. It takes macro
7:53expansions, macro behavior in broader
7:55markets to create this risk-on
7:57environment for the cryptocurrency
7:58market. And we may be getting ahead of
8:00ourselves thinking, hey, it's time for
8:01that. Rather than all of our discussions
8:03being like, hey, you know, this thing
8:05could range out throughout here for
8:07quite some time and it's still not be
8:10the expansion to happen just yet. And
8:12still, this is still possible that it
8:15does still push up higher, but still
8:17remains rangebound for months on end as
8:20that is what actually ended up happening
8:22in here after that banking scare of SVB
8:24back right there in March of 2023. I'll
8:28just take all that off there real quick
8:29that prices did still push higher in
8:31here after this range was broken, right?
8:33And so like you could still do something
8:35like that, but it doesn't change that it
8:36would still be rangebound and sentiment
8:38did not escape and we didn't really feel
8:41that the way I always describe this
8:43particular moment in time because we had
8:44it here in 2023 and we had it back there
8:46in 2019. Like the weight of the world
8:48kind of comes off your shoulders if
8:50you're feeling that way. It usually
8:51takes that next range break for that to
8:53kind of fade. And so like what I've been
8:55describing with the market is to say hey
8:57look like there's still more ranging
8:59that still has to happen in here and
9:01then what typically happens is we have
9:03macro lead the way then we have Bitcoin
9:05follow and then we have the altcoin
9:06market follow afterwards and those are
9:08typically our order of operations. Right
9:09now there's not the evidence to say any
9:12of those things are occurring yet where
9:13we don't have the macro move happening
9:15or the Bitcoin move or the altcoin move
9:17but we definitely have all of our
9:18historical markers of being beyond the
9:20bottom. And so maintaining the thesis of
9:22being beyond the bottom is very easy to
9:24maintain because we don't have examples
9:26of where we break the 50WE or where we
9:28go from oversold bullish divergence to
9:30breakout like we've done over here in
9:32both 2026 and in 2023 or having the
9:35onchain losses reach the figures that
9:37they've reached like we've definitely
9:38hit as hard as we need to hit on onchain
9:40losses. And then of course the major
9:42pullback in the losses in here which
9:44obviously means more people went into a
9:46profit. That separation happened in
9:48there. When that separation shows up in
9:50here, that means we're beyond the
9:52bottom. And you could see that back here
9:53in 2023 as well. More coins in a loss
9:55and in a profit. The separation happens,
9:57but then there's all this ranging crud
9:59in here. Uh that deteriorates sentiment.
10:02But you can see that here in 2019 as
10:04well, that separation finally happens.
10:06That's the marker of the bottom. And
10:07then of course back here in 2015, that
10:10separation happens in here. That's the
10:12marker of the bottom. It just you could
10:13see in all of them, right? Then it just
10:14gets real waddly in here, right? And
10:16that's just, you know, the the kind of
10:18phase that we're at right now until we
10:19can get macro to push us out of here.
10:21But the thing to always expect in walls
10:23of worry is that there's going to be a
10:25lot of worry. Like we talked about,
10:26there's a lot of low conviction capital
10:28that was looking to get 40 to $50,000
10:30down here. When we were at 57 to 63,
10:33people thought we were going to go to 40
10:35to 50k. The market ripped to the upside.
10:37It forced a lot of capital in. That
10:39capital does not have conviction. Matter
10:41of fact, that capital didn't even know
10:43how they came up with the 40 to 50,000
10:45number because they certainly didn't
10:46come up with it themselves. They found
10:48it by some type of content creation or
10:50some chartist or some YouTuber or
10:52something like that became viral.
10:54Definitely not their own technical
10:55analysis. So that conviction that money
10:58or that money just doesn't have
10:59conviction in here. And so we're going
11:01to see a lot of that as we turn our way
11:03up the wall of worry, right? sell low,
11:05buy high, sell low, buy high, rather
11:07than, oh, okay, yeah, this this stuff
11:09all makes sense in here. We're probably
11:11beyond the bottom. Or, oh, yeah, this
11:13stuff, it it all makes sense in here.
11:14We've gone the same depths of an entire
11:16bare market in here. We've done all the
11:18same things. We've broken through the
11:1950we. Yeah, right. Yeah, this stuff it
11:21it all probably makes sense. And I could
11:22get it maybe being more skeptical in the
11:24breadth just cuz this is my own personal
11:26indicator. Kind of just have to like
11:27trust me, bro. Yeah, but these things
11:28always, you know, whenever it triggers,
11:30we're beyond the bottom, right? And of
11:32course I have to explain this and say
11:33this isn't an expansion indicator in our
11:35current environment. It's just the
11:37bottoming marker. So pullbacks happen.
11:39That's what occurs during wall of worry
11:41climbs. I did my best to try to say that
11:43we will have those. It's going to be
11:45hard to predict how each of these moves
11:47are going to happen during the entire
11:48work its way back up move. But there
11:50will be several of these as we do them.
11:52We do know back there in 2023, right? It
11:55really found support down there on the
11:57100 and 200 day moving averages. Right
12:00now, we're right on that 100 day moving
12:02average, that 200 day moving average
12:04sits there at a little bit over $73,000.
12:06So, you know, as sentiment deteriorates
12:08in here, I wouldn't be surprised if
12:10there just becomes another wrong footing
12:12situation that happens in here. But then
12:14we always get the same stuff in here,
12:15right? It can shift up in here, then
12:17find a new range boundary. The
12:19excitement all happens and then we range
12:21again in here. And this sentiment wash
12:23happens over and over again, right? So,
12:25we're in it for kind of a longhaul
12:27recovery right now. We have all of our
12:29markers of being beyond the bottom. It's
12:31just that sentiment's never going to
12:33believe it. Sentiment's going to
12:34constantly get this wrong footing. And
12:36trying to trade a range, true, trading a
12:38range is very difficult to do and
12:40typically turns into portfolio
12:42deterioration. But this market looks
12:44just like it does on past recoveries
12:46right now. I think logically you would
12:48say, yeah, we're probably completely
12:50stuck in a range. But I still don't
12:52think we can rule out the idea that it
12:54could shift here. And then the range is
12:56really actually up in here. And we even
12:59experienced that back in 2023 as well on
13:02this, right? It did like a little flush
13:04in here. And then it did establish that
13:06range in there. And so for the last
13:08couple of months, it's been more of
13:09like, hey, bottom has been marked. Look
13:11at all this data. I just showed you some
13:12of that data here in this video. This is
13:14the type of data that I show you that
13:16it's like it's not opinionated. You can
13:17look at this. This is just unequivocal
13:19data. This isn't like, hey, you're
13:21interpreting it that way. No, this is
13:22just what happens, right? You know it.
13:24We go into more coins in a loss and in a
13:26profit, right? This is the bottom of
13:282022. Here's the FTX collapse happening
13:30in here. And then here's January of
13:322023. There's that separation that
13:34happens. We can't argue about these
13:35things. This is just data. That's what
13:37we've done. What we can argue about is
13:39being like, what is every little
13:40structure going to look like in here?
13:41What is every range going to look like
13:42as we climb our way back up? And that's
13:44fair, but we just can't argue that we've
13:46done what we do to mark the low. And so
13:48that's kind of the thing to like lock in
13:50on when you know you get big news
13:51narratives and sometimes those big news
13:53narratives can mark the low. Right? Here
13:54we are, we have elections tomorrow,
13:56right? You got geopolitical constant
13:58news in your face, right? Now they've
14:00gone ahead and deteriorated the
14:02sentiment of the crypto voter. Right?
14:04One, you've been in a bare market. Two,
14:06you didn't get clarity. Now three,
14:08you're getting all these hardware
14:09wallets and now the biggest exchange
14:11hacked, right? Really beaten down that
14:13crypto voter. You know, then we tend to
14:15get through elections and things kind of
14:16chill out, right? But a lot of times
14:18when we see that, like we talked about
14:19with the SVB thing back in 2023, it
14:22marked a low, right? So is Binance a low
14:24marker? It could be. Um, but it doesn't
14:26change the fact that we still are
14:27missing elements to look for the
14:28expansion. And so that's things we'll
14:30kind of talk about now, right? Obviously
14:32for an expansion, you look for an alt
14:34season and there's three events that
14:36happen in a row or consecutively or I
14:38guess chronologically, I don't know. We
14:40see macro go, we see Bitcoin go, we see
14:43the altcoin market go. And it's when the
14:44altcoin market goes. That's where
14:46Bitcoin dominance goes down first. And
14:48so our first sign we look for is for
14:50macro to go. Then we look for Bitcoin to
14:52go. We'll usually see a little pop
14:54happen over here in the Bitcoin
14:55dominance during this particular phase.
14:57And then once the altcoin market gets
14:59going, that's when we actually see the
15:00Bitcoin dominance fall down. And that's
15:02really what we saw back here in 2020 and
15:0521. Macro led the charge. Bitcoin
15:08followed. As you can see in here, here's
15:10Bitcoin going for the escape of its
15:12all-time high. Right in here, that's
15:14Bitcoin. There's a Bitcoin dominance
15:16pushing. And then, of course, after that
15:17follows the altcoin market and the
15:18Bitcoin dominance collapses. So, we
15:20typically need to get all the way to
15:22that phase of Bitcoin getting back to
15:23that high for us to see this Bitcoin
15:25dominance be able to fall. We don't
15:27usually just come straight off the
15:29bottom and then go boom blasting into
15:31some type of bull market. We have
15:32multiple phases we have to work through.
15:34Frankly, the biggest one that's on my
15:36radar is what's going to happen over
15:37here with the stock market. It should be
15:39well known. My thoughts are that this is
15:41going to be some type of rotating equity
15:43top. This is not going to be an
15:44expansion. If you're using the formulas
15:46of 2013, 2017, or 2021 is your thesis
15:50moving forward or if any of the content
15:52creation you watch is using those, I do
15:54believe you're following the wrong path.
15:56I think that's what people also thought
15:58would happen there in 2025. But as we
16:01showed, there was a massive absence of
16:02breadth in the markets, not just in the
16:04crypto market, but in the macro market
16:06in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Right now, even
16:10we have the Russell 2000 in new highs.
16:12Yet, we have the altcoin market still
16:14trying to play the catch-up trade
16:15happening in here. Right? These are all
16:17vastly different elements from what
16:19we've seen in past historical cycles
16:21when it comes to macro behavior. And the
16:23only way it can be explained away from
16:26my view is that this is a raging bubble
16:29in the major indexes over here in the
16:30stock market. Specifically, the S&P 500,
16:33the Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ. Now, the
16:35S&P is dealing with the biggest breadth
16:38consolidation that we've ever seen in
16:41markets. You can go back to 1932, right,
16:44to the depths of the Great Depression.
16:46We hit numbers of about 37 38%
16:48consolidation into the top 10. Right
16:50now, we're right there as well. We're a
16:52little bit over 38% consolidation into
16:54the S&P 500 into the top 10 names. You
16:56know, your Nvidia's, Meta, Broadcom,
16:58Google, etc. We topped out at about
17:0141.6% consolidation back in October of
17:04last year, which ironically, of course,
17:06was like the breaking point for the
17:08cryptocurrency market to liquidate and
17:09not be able to escape into a new
17:11all-time high because breadth was so
17:13consolidated in the S&P 500. Point being
17:15that for our macro picture, it's not
17:17going to be able to look at it through
17:19the lens of what we're used to from back
17:20here in 2020 or back here in 2017 or
17:24back here in 2013 where you get these
17:26breakouts of these ranges leads to
17:29expansions in all markets and crypto and
17:31Bitcoin break out right afterwards. Or
17:33here, same thing in 2017. Finally, it
17:35escapes this range and crypto goes right
17:37with it. Or it escapes this range and
17:38crypto goes right with it. We know that
17:40picture all changed throughout here.
17:42This was a major breadth consolidation.
17:44the cryptocurrency market. In no way
17:46participated in any of this for the
17:48first time ever, right? Look at this S&P
17:50500. Like, we always get these breakouts
17:52with the market. We don't get it this
17:54time, right? We're totally stuck in here
17:56while this thing has just traversed its
17:58way up. And this has been a collapsing
18:00of breadth in broader markets. And so,
18:03it'd be too long- winded as it was
18:05long-winded in my newsletter. It was
18:06like the whole topic I covered in there.
18:08But the elements everyone's looking for
18:10if they're going to be trying to analyze
18:12the macro market and try to use a
18:14blueprint of the past. I just don't
18:16think you're going to be able to use
18:172013. I don't think you'll be able to
18:19use 2017. I don't think you'll be able
18:20to use 2020 and 2021. But at the same
18:23time, it will be different than what
18:25we've seen back here in 2023 to 2026 due
18:28to the breadth collapse. And that that
18:30breadth is going to have to unwind at
18:32some point. And what will that look
18:34like? One of the things that has really
18:36been the recipient a lot of a lot of the
18:38breadth and really this top 10 of the
18:40S&P 500 as it's like gobbled up 40% of
18:43the entire S&P 500 has been
18:45semiconductors. Semiconductors hit this
18:474.236 extension over here in June and
18:50July on or ironically that also is the
18:54point at which Bitcoin's able to reverse
18:55out of there that this breadth collapse
18:57in this AI railroad or foundation of
19:01semiconductors swallowed the market. It
19:03reached a pivotal point where it
19:05couldn't go any further and that was the
19:06breaking point for Bitcoin to mark that
19:08low in there. And that reversal comes
19:10out of semiconductors, right? This is
19:11going to be your your Broadcoms, your
19:13Nvidas, your AMDs, your Micron
19:15Technologies. This is what has been
19:16swallowing the narrative over here in
19:18the stock market and swallowing all the
19:21breadth of the S&P 500. Some point this
19:23is going to unwind and it'll be
19:25different than what we're used to here
19:27in the market. Now, my thoughts are of
19:29course eventually the recipient of that
19:31will be the software sector of the
19:33market, right? Laying the foundation of
19:34the railroad for all of this AI stuff.
19:37Who's going to benefit from all the AI
19:39stuff? My thoughts are it seems logical
19:41to be software, but at the same time, of
19:43course, I'm a technical analyst rather
19:44than a fundamental speculator. I see the
19:46setup over here on the software sector.
19:49However, I don't see any evidence of the
19:51software sector breaking out. So when I
19:53view the market on how I think it's
19:54going to end up playing out, it's that
19:56anybody using past formulas of 2013,
19:582017 or 21, it's not going to do that.
20:01It will be some type of rotational play
20:03that happens here on the S&P likely out
20:05of the semiconductors, the Nvidia's
20:08right uh in transitioning into other
20:10facets of the market. And but our our
20:12main goal here is, you know, even if
20:13this thing pulls back in here, which I
20:15think is super logical that it does to
20:17then, you know, try to get our way to
20:18work out. And once we work out in here,
20:21then we get the green light to start
20:22saying, "Bitcoin, are you ready to go?"
20:24Once we have Bitcoin gone and it can
20:26escape here and get back to these highs,
20:29you know, this is historically our
20:31moment in time for the altcoin market.
20:33This is where we can get this Bitcoin
20:34dominance to go curb plunk and then we
20:37all have the greatest alt season of our
20:38lives and everything. But it's really
20:39this big play and it's how it all goes
20:41and everybody creates this, you know,
20:43fantasy in their head of how they think
20:45it's going to play out. uh usually due
20:47to utility or secrets upon secrets and
20:49narratives. Uh you know when I was in
20:51swell lots of conversations with people
20:53you and you still you do really do in
20:55real life you have those people who are
20:57pretty grounded in reality and then you
20:58have these people with really big
20:59dreams. Um I met multiple people in real
21:02life who who really truly do believe in
21:04a $1,000 XRP or or really even a $10,000
21:08XRP price. Those people do exist in real
21:11life. However, I would say the majority
21:13live in a kind of a reality of, you
21:15know, five, 10, $15 is kind of, you
21:17know, their thoughts. But the point is
21:19it's never been the the fantasies or the
21:22utility narratives that end up driving
21:24price. It's one big giant puzzle and
21:26putting it all together. We have to see
21:28macro take off, then we see Bitcoin
21:30follow, then we see the altcoin market
21:32follow after that. First, we have to
21:34work through phases of climbing the wall
21:35of worry. The market gets shaken. the
21:38market doesn't believe the bottom is in,
21:40even though all your evidence is there
21:41to support it that it actually is. But
21:43then every time the price moves up just
21:45a little bit, we suddenly get all
21:47rehyped content focused back at us
21:49saying that we're about to escape again.
21:51You know, it's in moments like these I
21:52have to sit here and say, "Hey, you
21:54shouldn't be worrying because the data
21:56doesn't support that." Right? If it went
21:57and set a new low, then it would be an
21:59anomaly of the data from anything that
22:01we've ever seen before. Could it happen?
22:03Anything can happen, but the data
22:04doesn't suggest it. The technical data
22:06doesn't suggest it. The onchain data
22:08doesn't suggest it. And the breadth
22:10opening at the bottom of the market
22:11doesn't suggest that we go set a new
22:14low. It just suggests this is one of the
22:16first or one of the first of many ranges
22:18as we work our way up. and to not let
22:21yourself get your timing expectations
22:24out of whack by content hyping you into
22:26oblivion and thinking that it's ready to
22:28go with some type of $10,000 utility
22:31flipping of a switch that's going to
22:33happen, but really following the typical
22:35order of operations and that there's
22:37going to have to be some type of
22:38rotation that happens in the market.
22:40It's going to have to find a way to
22:41rotate over in here into the software
22:43sector of the market. And if you don't
22:45believe that and why we focus on that so
22:47much, it's because this is the true
22:49thing that Bitcoin has gotten itself
22:51into correlation with over the last 5
22:53years. Both capitulating down in here
22:56back in February happens with the
22:58software sector. Everybody remember that
23:00AI is going to kill SAS companies,
23:01right? That's happening at the exact
23:03same time. Bitcoin's capitulating,
23:05right? We had both those things
23:06happening at the same time. Bitcoin
23:08capitulation and SAS companies are going
23:09to die cap at the same time. Um, but we
23:11could see this is a correlated asset
23:13class to the software sector of the of
23:15the United States stock market. And so
23:17what we need is a rotation. We need an
23:18escape of IGV that gives the clear
23:20signal, right? So it's going to be
23:22likely my my thoughts are when I think
23:24of it fundamentally fantasy narrative.
23:26It's, you know, semiconductors have
23:27already topped. We've already seen that
23:29rotation happen in there that once that
23:31semiconductor hit that 4 point that
23:32semiconductor ETF hit that 4.236
23:35extension. That's right when we saw
23:36Bitcoin reverse. Of course, Bitcoin's
23:38reversal comes off of extreme onchain
23:40losses that we historically see when the
23:42bottom is being marked in the market,
23:44right? We always get this 10.4, 10.5,
23:4710.6. We 10.8 million coins and a loss.
23:49We do fall down to these levels where we
23:51only end up having having four and a
23:54half, 5 million coins on a loss. That's
23:56precisely what we did back here in 2023.
23:58Uh but still, you know, it meant the
23:59bottom was already in. There was
24:01volatility. We didn't go any lower. We
24:02didn't set a new low on Bitcoin. It just
24:04took some time to work it out. And then
24:06boom, more coins shuffling down here.
24:08Fewer people in a loss as the market
24:09still continues to climb. Well, of
24:11course, all the technicals and
24:12everything like that, insinuating the
24:14same ideas in here. So, the market's
24:16fine from a data perspective, narrative
24:18perspective. It's going to wash
24:19sentiment and but the thing I've tried
24:21to do for these last several weeks is to
24:23say, "Yeah, this is great. We're past
24:24the bottom. We we shouldn't argue with
24:26this. Yeah, there's going to be low
24:27conviction capital. They're going to get
24:28washed around. They're not going to
24:29believe it. We're going to see new low
24:31content get pushed out there on X and
24:33social media because these people have
24:34extremely low conviction. Not entirely
24:36their fault that they have this low
24:38conviction. It's just that they missed
24:39the low and were forced in higher. And
24:42when you're forced in higher, you're not
24:43in any type of profits when the market's
24:45right in here. So, there's a lot of
24:47uncertainty, doubt, don't know what to
24:49do right in here. U because if the
24:51market falls, there's a lot of fear of a
24:53fall happening right in here. Because
24:54what does that mean? That means they
24:55sold the capitulation. They yolo bought
24:57back in. They sold again. they bought
24:59back in. If the market falls down again,
25:02falls one more time, just imagine what
25:04that does to sentiment for those types
25:06of people. And those do exist. So, you
25:08have to understand they also have
25:09Twitter accounts. They have ex accounts.
25:10They're emotionally unstable. And that's
25:12not me taking a shot at that. That's
25:14just what markets do when you get into
25:16that type of situation. If you if you
25:19sell here looking for 40 to 50k and the
25:21market rips here and then you're forced
25:22to buy back in, there is emotional
25:24instability that happens here. And
25:26that's okay. It's just that they do have
25:27a they do have ex accounts, Twitter
25:29accounts, social media accounts, and you
25:31have to be mindful of that that a lot of
25:33the analysis you're seeing out there in
25:35markets is emotional analysis happening
25:38out in there. Fear of what would happen
25:39if things fell when the market looks
25:41completely fine, right? And we just went
25:43through like a really bad narrative and
25:46brushed it off pretty well, right? Just
25:48if we if we have to dip down in here to
25:49these moving averages like we did back
25:51in here, that's a little bit over
25:53$73,000. We'll see if it ends up doing
25:55it or if it just, you know, whipssaws
25:57itself back up and forms a range from
25:59higher prices. Either way, still all the
26:01data suggests beyond the low. I think
26:03what we're all waiting for is how are we
26:05going to rotate out of this market with
26:06the semiconductors appearing to have
26:08already been topped. When can we get
26:10that IGV to go for the break as the
26:12correlated asset class for Bitcoin and
26:14the cryptocurrency market as our leader
26:17to then send Bitcoin to then send the
26:19altcoin market? And that's the thing
26:20we're going to be focusing on. Uh it's
26:21hard to talk about it every day because
26:23market the stock market moves a lot
26:24slower than the cryptocurrency market
26:26does. But I think in the end, you know,
26:29there's no arguing about us being beyond
26:30the bottom of the market. We've got all
26:32the data points to suggest we're beyond
26:33the bottom. Now we're in the wall of
26:35worry. Now we got all the fear
26:36narratives and everything that just wash
26:38sentiment around. The main focus is
26:40going to be getting macro to cooperate
26:42for an expansion over here in IGV and
26:45how that's going to look. uh the peak of
26:47the S&P 500, the peak of the
26:49semiconductors, the rotating and the
26:51opening of that 40% breadth and where
26:53that's going to end up going. That's our
26:55big narrative and that's going to be our
26:57big story and that's going to be why
26:58people are going to miss it when the
27:00time comes. And we know we'll we know
27:02they'll miss it. Uh because a lot of
27:03people didn't read it right when we were
27:05actually expanding um back in November
27:07of 2024, not thinking that that was
27:10really the breakout when that actually
27:12was. Remember XRP at time you may sound
27:14you had the Russell cooperating you had
27:16Bitcoin setting that new all-time high
27:17you had the Bitcoin dominance starting
27:18to fall. It was very clear evidence that
27:20was it and then when we get to the top
27:22everybody ignoring that data you just
27:24know that that will always happen that
27:25never changes in this market that the
27:27crowd is always in this disagreement and
27:30the crowd is always wrongfooted. I don't
27:31post these things to be a troll to an
27:33extent but it's to point out the true
27:35the true reality that that the crowd is
27:37always wrongfooted. It doesn't matter.
27:40At any type of reversal, they will be
27:42wrongfooted. It doesn't mean the crowd
27:44is wrong 100% of the time, but at
27:46extremes and when the crowd is in
27:48agreement, there is never a time where a
27:50reversal happens with the crowd
27:52correctly doing correctly getting a
27:54reversal. The crowd can correctly can
27:56get a trend continuation. Uh but the
27:57crowd can never get a reversal, right?
27:59And that's not a shot at the intellect
28:02of the crowd. That's just a shot at what
28:04crowd behavior is. So, okay, we're
28:07rambling now. Um, anyway, I hope you
28:09found some value in all of this, right?
28:10Like the reality is we're beyond the
28:12bottom. Watch out for narratives. Watch
28:14out for fear-mongering. The Binance
28:16stuff seems to have been digested by the
28:17market pretty well. This is no different
28:19than what we typically see happen in
28:21markets. Uh, even these moving averages
28:23here, it's still sitting on top of them.
28:24It found it at the 100 and 200 back in
28:262023. All right, all the bullish
28:28divergences, everything onchain data,
28:30all looks good. Remember, the breadth
28:31has opened to signify the low. Our next
28:34breadth opening that we're going to be
28:35looking for, right? So, now the breath
28:36is shut. Our next breadth opening we're
28:38gonna be looking for is to see if that's
28:40going to have enough juice to actually
28:41push us to the new all-time high. But we
28:42could be stuck waiting for that for a
28:44while. Doesn't change the bottom being
28:46in. It's just it again reiterates the
28:48things that we talked about for the last
28:49couple of months. This isn't an
28:51expansion. This is just a marker of the
28:53low expectations of this being an
28:55expansion or not in line with what the
28:58market is actually showing in here
29:00because it was not showing an expansion.
29:02It's just showing the marker or the low.
29:04Our next things that we're going to be
29:05watching for is going to be macro to be
29:07able to give us a push and give us a
29:08signal. Once macro gives us a push and a
29:10signal, then of course we watch for
29:12Bitcoin to give us a signal, then the
29:14altcoin market. But it's a long process.
29:16There's a wall of worry. There's a lot
29:17of emotions to go along with it. But
29:19either way, I I hope I've done a good
29:21enough job showing to you that the
29:22market is just fine. you just have a lot
29:24of emotions of really that are just a
29:27repercussion of what happened in here uh
29:30with looking for the 40 to 50k uh that
29:33this capital that's forced in here that
29:35missed there is very uh low conviction
29:38so all right we're good tomorrow is
29:40elections I look forward to us being
29:41beyond that election season is always
29:43annoying to me I don't think that's a
29:45unique opinion it's probably for a lot
29:47of people it would be nice to be beyond
29:48that and hopefully a lot of the
29:50instability of narratives out there
29:52geopolitically and marketwise kind of
29:54start to tame down once we get past
29:56that. Either way, I hope that you guys
29:58had an okay week without me last week.
30:00I'm back. We're back to regular
30:01programming again. I won't be off from
30:04the channel again until we get to the
30:05Thanksgiving week and then, you know, we
30:07do the whole thing until Christmas week.
30:08So, we're good for the rest of the month
30:10of November until we get to the week of
30:11Thanksgiving. So, I'll catch you guys
30:13multiple times this week. Um, of course,
30:15over this past weekend, just two days
30:16ago, I did publish another newsletter
30:18over there on
30:19blockchainbacker.substack.com
30:20substack.com titled fueling crypto's
30:22next expansion semiconductors and S&P
30:25500 topping historical extreme
30:27concentration could unwind into
30:28opportunity for software and crypto. It
30:30includes a 43minute audio recording in
30:32there. I do record these after I write
30:34them. So if you want to just like listen
30:36to them on your AirPods or on a walk or
30:37on the treadmill or in the gym or
30:39driving your vehicle, I try to do that
30:40for you. There's a link over here in the
30:42description of this video to the
30:43newsletter at
30:44blockchainbacker.substack.com
30:46or you can go directly within your
30:47browser. Otherwise, it feels good to be
30:49back. I missed being home. I missed my
30:51kids. I loved meeting all of you guys
30:53and shaking hands and talking with you
30:55who were there in New York City last
30:56week. I probably won't be at another
30:58conference for several months from now
30:59until, you know, mid 2027. So, either
31:02way, I'll go ahead and wrap this thing
31:04up, guys. Thank you so much for
31:05watching. If you could please like this
31:07video and give it a thumbs up. If you're
31:08new to the channel, please subscribe and
31:10hit the notification bell so you can be
31:12notified of when I create new content
31:14and when I go live. As always, this is
31:16not investment advice and I am not a
31:18financial adviser, but if you ever need
31:20a pickme up or a little bit of
31:21reassurance, just remember that the
31:23blockchain backers got your back. Have a
31:27good one.

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