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0:08Dr. Eric, your main concern has been the
0:10population bomb, as you call it, in your
0:13book. What hope is there?
0:15>> Uh, we've got to use political
0:16processes. In the not too distant
0:18future, the government will simply tell
0:19you how many children you can have and
0:20throw you in jail if you have too many.
0:22I do know that at this time, unless now
0:25we think of what America is going to be
0:27like in the year 2000, this increase in
0:30population, and do something about it to
0:32stop that pressure, we're going to reap
0:34the whirlwind. Because look at what the
0:36year 2000 will be if if the present
0:38trends continue. Our cities are going to
0:40be choked with people and they will be
0:42impossible places in which to live and
0:44the explosions will be even worse.
0:45>> We hear so much about overpopulation in
0:48countries like India and South America.
0:50Is there not perhaps a more real problem
0:52there than here?
0:53>> Well, the problem in South America or in
0:55India is the growth rates extremely fast
0:57and this is going to lead to a
0:58tremendous amount of starvation there.
1:00If we do not by humane means limit our
1:03numbers, then numbers are going to be
1:05limited by more famines and shortages.
1:07>> The disaster will take the form of
1:08famine, plague, or war. They're
1:09mankind's old uh companions
1:11fundamentally. You just got to remember
1:13this. There's no way out of the
1:14arithmetic. There will never be 7
1:16billion people in the year 2000. And now
1:18a milestone for all of us on this planet
1:21today. The United Nations declared that
1:23today the world's population reached 7
1:25billion people.
1:26>> That relentless population clock just
1:29keeps on ticking and ticking.
1:32>> Well, if they kept such a clock in
1:33Italy, it would be ticking backwards.
1:35The government there thinks there are
1:37not enough Italians.
1:38>> Demographers warn that the shrinking
1:41population could drag the country into
1:43an unprecedented economic crisis. Dire
1:46predictions of an overpop populated
1:48planet have been with us for centuries.
1:50What if they're just plain wrong?
1:52>> Alert. The number of babies born in
1:55America last year, falling to a 32-year
1:58low. But there is already a population
2:00crisis hitting major economies across
2:02the globe.
2:03>> Look at these numbers. How do you
2:04explain this decline?
2:05>> You know, you got cases like Japan where
2:07adult diapers out sell baby diapers.
2:11The world's falling birth rate isn't on
2:13the list of major threats to life as we
2:15know it, but it soon will be. Taxes are
2:18destined to sore. Pension systems will
2:21become unsustainable, while our health
2:23care systems won't be able to cope with
2:25the ratio people to take care of
2:27compared to the shrinking number of
2:29taxpayers. Businesses will struggle to
2:31find workers to hire. School closures
2:33will accelerate while social care will
2:36continually be slashed.
2:37>> And they say it's an economic time bomb.
2:39I'm worried about the birth rate. Most
2:41people think we we have like too many
2:43people on the planet, but actually this
2:45is an outdated view. I think that the
2:47biggest problem the world will face in
2:4920 years is population collapse.
2:52Collapse. I want to emphasize this. The
2:55biggest issue in 20 years will be
2:57population collapse.
3:04Heat. Heat.
3:16[Music]
3:40He's a good person, but he was not ready
3:43to be a father. After the breakup, I
3:46start everything from zero. That's why I
3:49got very um personal, very emotional
3:52because um you know when
3:55When you first know that your partner
3:57didn't want,
3:59it's quite heartbreaking.
4:08>> This is my story, too.
4:11My husband is granted that he is great.
4:14But you see, he still enjoy his his
4:16other life, his drinking and all that.
4:26[Music]
4:35Why are people having so few children?
4:39The more I read about falling birth
4:40rates,
4:42everything was negative. You enter a
4:45downward spiral. As you have fewer and
4:47fewer children, you have fewer and fewer
4:49future mothers, which in turn goes on
4:52and on and on.
4:55And no society in history has been known
4:58to come out of that spiral.
5:02I started the birth gap project in
5:04Cambridge, Massachusetts in 2016 after
5:07seeing data for Germany showing there
5:09are only half the number of children
5:11there now compared to 50 years ago.
5:15What are we going to talk about today?
5:17>> Global population collapse. What else? A
5:20fun topic. How's the audio?
5:23As a lifelong learner, I had been
5:26brushing up my skills in data science.
5:30My goal had been to find an explanation
5:32to one of the world's great mysteries.
5:36Why did the number of children being
5:38born in Italy, Japan, and Germany fall
5:41so rapidly at the exact same time?
5:46Whether data can help answer that
5:48question or not, one thing's for
5:50certain, with this trend having spread
5:52across the entire industrialized world
5:54and beyond, we're all going to notice.
5:59Due to globalization, a worldwide
6:01cascade of shrinking economies will
6:03affect all nations, including the US.
6:10But it's not just economic issues.
6:12Societies with low birth rates are
6:14destined to have a burgeoning number of
6:16older people to support. Humanity has
6:20never faced such a crisis.
6:24for a society with a sizable population
6:27to experience continuous and very rapid
6:31population decline in a prosperous and
6:33peaceful time. It's never happened in
6:35human history. There's no precedence.
6:38>> Should we be worried about population
6:40decline?
6:41>> Population decline is a form of uh
6:43social change. Can government be a
6:47practical substitute for the family
6:50structure that we took for granted up
6:52until let's say like breakfast yesterday
6:54morning. That's going to be really hard
6:57I think.
6:58>> Am I right that people aren't talking
6:59enough about this
7:01>> in my view uh incontestably you're
7:04correct. So why aren't they talking
7:06about it more? Well, to some degree,
7:09maybe people haven't been run over by
7:12this problem themselves yet.
7:17>> Do people talk much about falling birth
7:20rates?
7:21>> I don't think that people talk a lot
7:24about this. It's a a minor problem, I
7:26think.
7:27>> Are you worried about America's
7:29long-term low birth rates?
7:30>> Don't think it's a terrible thing.
7:32Culturally, birth rates have different
7:34rising and fallings. Are people worried
7:37about this? About not having children?
7:39Do you worry about
7:39>> I don't worry. Do you worry?
7:42>> We don't worry about these things. We
7:44have other things to worry about.
7:47>> But is it really a problem? Is it bad
7:50for the country? No. Is it bad for work
7:53forces? We have robots. We have much
7:56more automated work. So why is it the
7:59problem? What people usually don't think
8:02about, it's a little bit
8:04counterintuitive, but what is
8:06unavoidable is massive graying, massive
8:10aging of the society. And so all of
8:13these places in the world which are
8:16under substantial below replacement
8:19childbearing for decade after decade are
8:23on a trajectory not only for shrinking
8:26but also for really massive population
8:31aging.
8:32>> So you were shocked about hearing
8:34>> I was really shocked. The professor told
8:37us that I mean our generation is
8:40decreasing. So that we need to um
8:43protect our older generation and he
8:46showed the statistics. I'm really
8:49worrying about Japanese future about
8:52Germany.
8:52>> Let's look at Germany. This is the map.
8:55>> Oh dear. But look at that.
8:58>> I would not have expected this. I was
9:01not aware of this. Not at all. What's
9:04the impact of this? Huh?
9:09Understanding population trends can be
9:11tricky partly because it takes decades
9:14for changes to play out. Initially, low
9:18birth rates are almost undetectable
9:21except to maternity wards. But soon
9:23enough, we'll find closing schools,
9:26businesses that can't find staff to
9:27hire, and then close because they can't
9:30find enough customers. And meanwhile,
9:32the cost of providing our older
9:34generations with healthcare and pensions
9:37will continue to rise and rise as more
9:39and more people live longer and longer.
9:42To understand the scale of the problem,
9:45we just need to look at the world's
9:46falling fertility rates and how many
9:49countries have fallen below the
9:51population tipping point. Demographers
9:54call this tipping point the replacement
9:56level when women on average are having
9:58two children that survive into
10:01adulthood. Today 75% of us live in
10:05countries below that tipping point. And
10:07yet somehow our focus has remained on
10:10fears of neverending population growth.
10:15In the world of statistics, Hans Rosling
10:17is a rock and roll star. And in an era
10:19where the talk is a rapid population
10:21growth, he uses hard data to try to
10:24communicate the opposite story. Here's a
10:26clip from his film airing tomorrow night
10:27on BBC 2.
10:28>> Up to eight and then it goes up to nine
10:31and then it goes here. But see, it's
10:34slowing down. It's slowing down. By the
10:35end of the century, it's becoming more
10:37flat there. And if I do a close,
10:40>> no one could explain population trends
10:43better than the late Hans Rosling,
10:46including why our total headcount will
10:48increase for a while despite the number
10:51of children having peaked.
10:53>> Now, this will confuse you because
10:57how can then the total population grow
11:00like this if the children doesn't
11:02increase? Where will all these adults
11:04come from? And and to explain that I
11:07will show you the world population
11:09ladies and gentlemen in the form of foam
11:12blocks. One block is 1 billion. We have
11:162 billion children in the world. Then we
11:19have 2 billion between 15 and 30 years
11:23of age. We have 1 billion 30 to 45. We
11:26have 1 billion
11:2845 to 60. And then we have my block 60
11:32years and older. We are here on top.
11:34Huh? So this is what we have today. Now
11:37what will happen in the future? Do you
11:40know what happens to old people like me?
11:43They die. The rest they grow 15 years
11:47older and have two billion children.
11:50These ones are now old. Time to die. And
11:53then these ones grow 15 years older and
11:56they have two billion children. This one
11:58die and the rest grow 15 years older and
12:01have two billion children.
12:03Without increasing the number of
12:05children, without increasing the length
12:08of life, we have three billion people
12:11more by this big inevitable fill up of
12:14adults, which will happen just when the
12:16large young generations grow up. Hans
12:20Rosling's building blocks explain
12:21beautifully how the world's total
12:24population is going to fill up with
12:27older people and not children. Yet
12:30before this project, I had no idea about
12:33low birth rates outside of Europe and
12:35Japan.
12:36>> I would say at the moment we can break
12:38the world down into two components if we
12:42oversimplify. Subsaharan Africa and
12:45everybody else. If we take all of the
12:47rest of the world, all of non subsaharan
12:49Africa, we're already below the
12:52replacement level. And we've been below
12:55the replacement level for a little while
12:57now. Barring compensating immigration,
13:00no society can survive long-term below
13:03this replacement level tipping point.
13:05And the farther down birth rates go, the
13:08faster they will decay or to use the
13:10correct mathematical term, exponentially
13:13decay. Nations like Japan, Italy, and
13:16Germany with birth rates around 1.4
13:18children per woman will decay by around
13:211/3 per generation. Meaning that in two
13:24generations the underlying population
13:26will fall by over half and in three
13:29generations by 70%.
13:32But it turns out ultra low birth rates
13:35go far beyond these countries or without
13:39exception. All industrialized countries,
13:42developed countries have below
13:44replacement fertility.
13:45>> And we know what happens with continuing
13:48below replacement fertility. what's
13:50working pretty well now manifestly is
13:53going to be unsustainable a generation
13:55from now if you just do the arithmetic.
13:57>> It's striking and there is no single
14:00explanation in in different contexts.
14:02You have very different stories.
14:04>> But the trend started around the same
14:06time in the early 1970s.
14:07>> Yes, it's that's amazing. The amazing
14:09thing and in the west this is attributed
14:13to the to the pill in Japan. The pill
14:16was introduced in the early 1990s. So
14:18it's interesting though that while
14:19Europe blamed the contraceptive pill for
14:21the falling birth rates,
14:22>> it's not the case in Japan,
14:24>> but yet it's falling at the same time.
14:25>> At the same time, yeah,
14:27>> it's so difficult to describe and it and
14:30it may be very different things in
14:32different places that are causing these
14:34changes.
14:36>> In our culture, it's completely
14:38different like in western context about
14:40onethird of babies are born after
14:43marriage. But in Japan, marriage and
14:46childbearing are closely associated. So
14:49it's very different.
14:51>> And again, there is something strange.
14:53In Germany, education is fully
14:55subsidized, completely opposite to Japan
14:57because education in Japan is very
14:59expensive. So there are lots of
15:01contradictions. As a statistician
15:03looking at raw numbers, if you just look
15:04at that coldly, you'd say the
15:06probability that there's some common
15:08driving factor is very high.
15:20[Music]
15:26Why is it in Japan many people have no
15:29children? Why? Why the population is
15:31going down?
15:33Why women having so few children? Are
15:36you worried about there being so few
15:38children in Japan now?
15:41He's in a rush.
15:43>> She doesn't know.
15:44>> She doesn't know. Yeah.
15:47>> Saman speak English. There you go. Okay.
15:51>> Still really don't understand why
15:53Japanese people are having only 1.3
15:56children. Yes.
15:57>> I I don't know why.
16:01>> Well, the weird thing is that many women
16:04wants to have children, but I don't know
16:07why.
16:08um like the current society is
16:12struggling with
16:14um law
16:16>> young people has a maybe losing some
16:20expectation for their bright futures. I
16:22think working long time is a very easy
16:26solutions. You can so easily escape from
16:28such kind of discussions.
16:31[Music]
16:33>> We're talking about why in Japan
16:36population is going down because people
16:39don't get married, people don't have
16:41children. Why? Why?
16:43>> Why?
16:43>> I don't know. This taxes problem.
16:47>> Tax problem.
16:48>> Yes. Yes. Yes. Taxes problem.
16:53I love Steven.
17:02>> Just from your perspective, first of
17:04all, I mean, are you aware that in
17:05northern Italy that there is a low birth
17:08rate? Is this a surprise to you? Why why
17:10here?
17:11>> Yeah, I'm not really surprised about
17:13this. Maybe the people think that uh
17:16they cannot give a good future to the
17:19children. So I think having a career is
17:22not
17:23easily combinable with with children
17:26especially in in modern careers where
17:29you have flexible work hours which means
17:32no one checks on your hours but also no
17:35one caps your hours so you can work a
17:38lot.
17:46>> Why why is this happening? I don't know.
17:50I don't know.
17:51>> Maybe they think that they can live an
17:55happy life if they have the children
17:57because they have to work, work, work,
17:59work just to have a baby. You know,
18:03>> after 50 years of unsustainably low
18:06birth rates, countries in Europe and
18:08Japan are fast becoming inverted worlds
18:11with too many retirees for the shrinking
18:14workforces to support. If we look at
18:17Italy for example, in 2019 there were
18:20around 1 million people aged 50 who will
18:23be retiring in around 20 years time.
18:26Then if we look at the number of
18:28newborns who in around 20 years time
18:31will be entering the workforce to
18:32support these retirees, they're less
18:35than half. Any large gap between the
18:38number of newborns and the number of
18:40people they will have to support into
18:42retirement is significant socially and
18:45economically. Given that these gaps are
18:48being caused by long-term low birth
18:50rates, I decided to call any shortfallen
18:52workers birth gaps.
18:56I wanted to show these birth gaps on a
18:58series of regional maps. First, I
19:00colored any regions that did have more
19:02babies than 50-year-olds green. But in
19:05regions where there were too few
19:07children being born, I used increasingly
19:09dark shades of red, with the darkest red
19:12meaning there less than half the number
19:14of babies being born compared to the
19:16older people they would need to support
19:18and at the center of any region with a
19:21birth gap. I put a gaping black hole
19:24proportional to the drop in the number
19:26of children.
19:27>> Oh wow, it's a big gap. That's kind of
19:31scary.
19:31>> Yeah, that's crazy.
19:34Wow.
19:36>> Gosh, that is major, isn't it?
19:39>> It's like a shock for me. It's like a
19:42joke. What are we making with our
19:44future? We are We are crazy. Yeah, this
19:47is not good.
19:48>> It's clear. It's a very powerful
19:51transformation.
19:52>> But now I want to show you. Let's jump
19:54to somewhere else.
19:56>> Yeah,
19:56>> Germany. Yeah, I've seen the same.
19:58>> It is the same.
20:00[Music]
20:02>> While this trend only affected parts of
20:04Europe 50 years ago, by the 1990s, birth
20:07gaps had spread to every corner of the
20:09continent. Even Scandinavia, a region
20:12known for its gender equality and
20:14parental benefits wasn't immune. In
20:17Denmark, a country that offers one-year
20:19paid leave and free education, the birth
20:22gap had reached 30%. There had even been
20:25a campaign
20:27Do it for Denmark.
20:43do it for Denmark.
20:45>> But it's not only Denmark in this
20:47coveted part of the world. In 2019,
20:50Ernest Soulberg, Prime Minister of
20:52Norway, became the first global leader
20:54to address her people on the birth gap
20:56crisis.
21:03for
21:26elementary school teachers across these
21:28countries are starting to notice. The
21:30school leaders are talking about less
21:32kids coming in the next next few years.
21:36So
21:37obviously we're going to have less less
21:40classes and and less jobs for teachers.
21:42>> Do you think people should be talking
21:43about this more?
21:47>> I think so. Yes. I think so. Because
21:52me as a young teacher, I'm not
21:56I'm not thinking about this. But maybe I
21:58should should do more.
22:02>> Some countries like the UK and France,
22:04while following the same trend, had
22:07smaller birth gaps of less than 20%. But
22:10what was most concerning was some of the
22:12larger countries in Europe. Some regions
22:14of Spain had 50% birth gaps, while parts
22:17of Germany and Italy had 60% birth gaps.
22:21Meaning for every baby being born there,
22:23there will be more than two 50year-olds
22:26to support into retirement. In 2016, the
22:30Italian government decided it was time
22:32to step inertility.
22:43They quickly found out that people don't
22:45like governments telling them to have
22:47more children.
22:49Meanwhile, businesses are starting to
22:51notice.
23:01>> By 2020, Italy's birth gap had reached
23:0556%
23:06and every country in Europe except
23:08Iceland had more 50y olds than newborns.
23:13But to find the world's largest birth
23:15gap, we need to look elsewhere,
23:19South Korea is winning this race to the
23:21bottom with a frightening 69% birth gap.
23:26>> In other news, latest data show South
23:28Korea's total fertility rate fell to a
23:30record low last year.
23:32>> South Korea has beaten its own record in
23:34having the world's lowest birth rate.
23:37The average number of expected births
23:38for women in the country has plunged to
23:420.72.
23:44That was in 2023.
23:45>> With children becoming a thing of the
23:47past in South Korea, a new form of
23:50parenting has taken over, raising what
23:52they're calling the dog child.
23:54>> These mothers and fathers are willing to
23:56spend no expense to give their dog
23:58children only the best. Dogs are like
24:00their children, except they're a whole
24:02lot cheaper. While in Japan, there's
24:05even an organization that lets young
24:08people try out being a parent for a day.
24:22[Music]
24:25Unlike Europe where people have the
24:27shortest working weeks and longest
24:29vacations anywhere, people in Korea and
24:32Japan are struggling with work life
24:34balance and that makes having children
24:37an extra challenge.
24:38>> We don't have any role model in a real
24:40world. It's really rare to see how
24:43children are raised. We are just really
24:46worrying about it. We don't have
24:47specific image. So the issue is in our
24:51mind. I think
24:52>> I think in Japan Mary means end of life
24:59for the humans.
25:02Yeah. Japanese work a lot like for
25:05example until like 2 or 3 a.m. I think
25:08I'm kind of a woman who wants to um
25:12pursue the career, but I feel really
25:15pessimistic
25:17about it because I feel like I should
25:20give up my career or my dreams for
25:25having children.
25:29Despite the vast differences in culture
25:32between Europe and Japan, the world's
25:34first signs of ultra- low birth rates
25:37emerged in both places at the exact same
25:40time. And yet, no one has found a
25:42connection.
25:44It's hard to accept. It's just one big
25:47coincidence.
25:54Red means low birth. like calls me very
25:58hard. That's pretty bad.
26:06[Music]
26:14He's been thinking maybe this reason,
26:18maybe this reason, maybe a this is but
26:21still he doesn't know.
26:24[Music]
26:27This didn't happen overnight.
26:30Birth rates have been at ultra- low
26:32levels across Japan and Europe for
26:34decades.
26:36And I remain convinced these trends were
26:39connected, but no one had yet found the
26:43common factor.
26:49>> We know you were responsible for the Daw
26:51Denmark,
26:53>> I guess. Well, actually is uh Eva
26:55Longrane who is responsible for that
26:58campaign. Um let me see if she's there.
27:02I appreciate
27:03>> she'll be here in around 15 minutes.
27:05>> So we'll do it right here.
27:06>> Yeah. Yeah, we can do it. Yeah.
27:09>> So what was the inspiration for deciding
27:11to make this? Um, at the time uh of of
27:14this campaign, there had been small
27:17stories in the serious newspapers, not
27:20on front page, but on page 10, 12, 13
27:24that that this was a a serious issue.
27:28It's not a sexy topic really, but we can
27:30make it sexy. So, yeah.
27:32>> Well, you can.
27:33>> Yeah, I can.
27:39Do it for Denmark. Why is this
27:42happening?
27:42>> It seems that when my mom was a young
27:45mom, her life certainly changed, but not
27:48that that much. And in our time, it's
27:52more like this is a shift in your life.
27:54Um, that's serious. You have so many
27:56things you want to do. You want to
27:58educate yourself. You want to find the
28:01right partner. You want to have fun. So,
28:04it seems that the time is never right.
28:07>> I'm like kind of like not ready.
28:09>> Hell no. hell to the no. I'm not ready
28:12to have kids.
28:13>> I've always thought about having kids.
28:16I'm also not in a place where I'm like
28:19married or pregnant or thinking about
28:21getting pregnant. Um, so maybe in a few
28:24years that'll be another discussion.
28:26>> All of my friends are head down into
28:27their career. None of them are married
28:29and none of them have kids. Everybody's
28:31just career driven. I feel so much
28:33pressure from my family and Kenny's
28:36family. They're constantly asking us,
28:37"When are you going to have kids?" and
28:40just trying to explain to them like I
28:42just really want to establish my career
28:44first. I'm still very much focused on
28:46like getting at a certain place in my
28:49career um before thinking like my brain
28:53cannot even think about that yet.
28:54>> I've always wanted to have children.
28:56I've always wanted to have children
28:57while I was young, but
29:00not
29:02now.
29:04>> Do you want to have kids? That's the
29:06biggest question I've been asking
29:08myself. And ever since we got married,
29:10I've been constantly debating with
29:11myself on whether I want to have kids.
29:14Am I just blaming the environment?
29:16Honestly, I don't know the answer. Am I
29:17going to regret this if I don't have any
29:19kids? I had to go through the motions um
29:23and emotions of my life. And I I think I
29:28had to do my career and do the marriage
29:32and get to the mental place of it's
29:36time. I don't want to be that mom that
29:38misses my child's first steps because
29:40I'm away. I want to wait until I can
29:43say, you know, I can't afford the time
29:45off. It's fine.
29:47>> So when would that be?
29:49>> That's the crazy thing. I don't know.
29:54And now birth gaps are coming to
29:57America. By 2020, the exact same trend
30:00saw 39 states with more 50-year-olds
30:03than newborns, with New England leading
30:05the way with a 29% birth gap. America is
30:10starting to notice
30:11>> fewer babies born in America last year
30:14than at any time since Ronald Reagan.
30:16That is what's not the birth rate is
30:18way, way down, right?
30:19>> It is. Has it been a surprise to you
30:21that low fertility is becoming an issue
30:24in the US?
30:25>> It took a while for us to notice. Took
30:27us a little while to catch on, but now
30:29that we have, I think people do find it
30:30worrying and justifiably so. There's a
30:32lot of economic and public policy
30:36reasons that that's going to be a big
30:37problem for the US going forward. You've
30:39got more and more older people retiring,
30:42being supported by
30:43>> fewer and fewer
30:44>> fewer and fewer active people working
30:46who are in turn having ever fewer
30:48babies. Right?
30:49>> It's an impossible situation.
30:51>> The good news for America is that
30:52because of immigration, our birth rates
30:54stayed high long after everyone else's
30:57had fallen, which means that we get a
30:59preview in a way that almost no other
31:02industrialized country does. Which means
31:04we can look at those other countries and
31:06say, "I don't want that.
31:09What do we do?
31:09>> The disturbing trend is that the
31:11fertility rate falling below the
31:14replacement level. In other words, the
31:16workforce becomes too small to support
31:18the growing retirees segment. It's a
31:21very troubling trend. As you've said
31:22before, we've seen it in Japan, Italy,
31:24and elsewhere.
31:25>> Who would have thought we'd open the
31:26show with the birth rate falling to the
31:2832year?
31:30Having started in Europe and Japan at
31:32the exact same time, this trend has
31:35spread relentlessly across the entire
31:38industrialized world and beyond.
31:41And this trend will have long-term
31:44consequences for us all. To understand
31:48the reality facing us, we need to
31:50convert fertility rates into societal
31:53half- livives. the time taken for births
31:56to half then half again and half again.
32:00We can visualize this by creating a
32:03societal half-life chart. A birth rate
32:07of 2.0 children per woman means that
32:10births would half every 800 years, but
32:14only one notch lower at 1.9 children per
32:17woman. And that reduces to only 300
32:21years. another notch down to 1.8 and
32:25it's only 150 years. Move down to where
32:29most industrialized nations are today
32:31and births are going to half every 50 to
32:3560 years. For China these days, it's 40
32:39years. While for South Korea, Singapore,
32:42Hong Kong, and Taiwan, births are
32:44halfing in the blink of an eye.
32:48The collapse of South Korea's birth
32:50rates happened inside a single
32:52generation.
32:54And with the entire industrialized world
32:57now seemingly trapped in this curve to
33:00nowhere, this trend was not going to
33:03stop here. And the data told me the next
33:07victim would be Latin America.
33:10[Music]
33:14>> So how many brothers and sisters do you
33:16have?
33:18So you said you liked coming from a
33:21larger family, but why did you decide to
33:24have a smaller family with only two
33:26children?
33:57Can you see yourself having three
33:59children? Four children?
34:01>> Two.
34:02>> Two maximum.
34:03>> Maximum two.
34:06Do you plan to have children one day?
34:08>> I do. I actually do plan. Not now, but I
34:11do. I'm 31.
34:13>> Really?
34:13>> Yes.
34:14>> So, not now. When's a good age?
34:16>> I don't know if there is a good age.
34:29[Music]
34:58Not not six more to have seven children
35:01like your mother.
35:11Do you think you will have children one
35:12day?
35:19[Laughter]
35:23Two, three, three.
35:28>> For you, do you think you'll have
35:30children one day?
35:31>> No.
35:36[Applause]
35:57[Music]
36:09[Music]
36:22All across Latin America, low birth
36:25rates now rival those of Japan, Europe,
36:28and the US. This just couldn't be a
36:31random series of unfortunate events.
36:35There had to be a connection. But the
36:37only connection I could find was a
36:40common conundrum.
36:43When we say replacement rate is when the
36:45average woman is having two children. Of
36:48course, not all women are having two
36:50children. Some will be having one, some
36:53having three and four, and some for
36:55differing reasons having none. In very
36:59simple terms, if we exclude those having
37:01more than four children to get an
37:03average of two children per woman, those
37:05having three and four should be in
37:08balance with those having either one
37:10child or none. To get an overall birth
37:13rate of less than two, it's a
37:15mathematical necessity that those having
37:17more than two are outnumbered by those
37:20having none or one.
37:23The lower birth rates go, the proportion
37:25of people having no children or one
37:28child must get greater and greater. The
37:32conundrum was that one child families
37:35were proving hard to find across all of
37:39these countries.
37:40>> I have a younger brother.
37:42>> Uh I have an older brother, an older
37:44sister, and a younger sister.
37:46>> I have sisters and brothers.
37:54I have one sister.
37:57>> I have a a sister and brother.
37:59>> I have four siblings. Two sister and two
38:02brothers.
38:02>> And when I met those a little older, I
38:04got the same response.
38:06>> You have two daughters. Is that correct?
38:08>> Yes. 31 and 33.
38:10>> Well, I have three kids myself.
38:12>> For myself, I have two childrens. Okay.
38:15They don't understand. My assumption had
38:18been that countries with low fertility
38:20rates would have many families with only
38:23one child. And that assumption was held
38:26by other people too.
38:28>> The reason Japan's population is
38:30declining, of course, is people are
38:32choosing to have smaller families.
38:34>> But why could I not find these smaller
38:36families with only one child? Something
38:40wasn't right.
38:43One of the golden rules of data science
38:45is to use the most granular data
38:48possible to understand trends. What I
38:51needed was an annual measure of
38:53childlessness, but it simply didn't
38:56exist. The aha moment came when I saw
38:59the UN collects data on the number of
39:02firsttime mothers and the children they
39:04then go on to have for many countries.
39:07Matching this data with total fertility
39:10rate data allowed me to calculate the
39:12missing piece in our giant population
39:15puzzle. The results connected
39:19everything. In Japan in 1974, around
39:22half of women were having two children,
39:25just over one in five was having three.
39:27A similar number was having one, and 6%
39:31were having four or more.
39:33Overall, the average Japanese mother was
39:36having 2.2 children. And with only one
39:38person in 20 remaining childless, the
39:41overall fertility rate for Japan was 2.1
39:44children per woman. But somehow over the
39:47next three short years, childless
39:50exploded to reach one person in four.
39:53Yet the percentage of mothers having
39:55one, two, three, or four or more
39:59children hadn't changed at all. This
40:02wasn't a shift. to smaller families.
40:04This was simply an explosion in
40:06childlessness.
40:08Wind the clock forward to 1990 and
40:10childlessnesses in Japan had reached 1
40:12in three women and yet the average
40:14children per mother had increased
40:16slightly to 2.3. Since 1990, this
40:20pattern has been locked in in Japan with
40:22almost no change to family structure or
40:25the one in three remaining childless.
40:28Even the proportion of mothers having
40:30four or more children has remained at
40:326%, exactly the same as 1974.
40:36[Music]
40:39Changes in demographics tend to happen
40:41slowly. But in Japan in the summer of
40:441974,
40:45something startling happened. Until
40:481973, the country was booming and the
40:52number of babies was booming. There was
40:54a new concept around the concept of the
40:57modern apartment with kitchens, flushing
41:00toilets, and entertainment space.
41:03Apartment complexes were springing up
41:05all across Japan. And with no end in
41:08sight to the country's economic renewal,
41:11this young generation had little to
41:14worry about. But the mood was about to
41:17change. In October 1973, the global oil
41:21shock sent the country into a frenzy.
41:23And the young generation that was just
41:25settling into their new modern lifestyle
41:28suddenly had to confront sharp price
41:30rises in food and commodities and
41:32shortages of the basics. And the data
41:35shows precisely 9 months later across
41:38every prefecture in Japan, the number of
41:41firsttime mothers plummeted and would
41:44never recover. childlessness. For
41:47onethird of Japanese women became the
41:49societal norm,
41:53Japan was hit hard by the oil shock. It
41:56was the world's largest importer of oil
41:58at the time. And across the entire
42:00country, many young people decided it
42:04wasn't the time to become parents. And
42:07we can see from the data this delaying
42:09of parenthood meant that many never
42:12would.
42:16Across in Europe, Italy is described by
42:18academics as having been the worst hit
42:20by the oil shock. Family structure in
42:23Italy in 1974 was remarkably similar to
42:26Japan. On average, mothers were having
42:292.3 children. Childlessness was even
42:32less in Japan with only 1 in 30 people
42:35having no children. Meaning that the
42:38overall fertility rate was 2.3 children
42:40per woman. Wind the clock forward only 3
42:44years and we find just like Japan
42:46childlessness exploded from 1 in 30
42:49people to 1 in five. By 1990, one in
42:54three people in Italy were destined to
42:56be childless. And by 2018, childlessness
42:59had reached two in every five Italians.
43:03Yet throughout this time, just like
43:05Japan, family structure hadn't changed
43:08at all. But this story isn't about Japan
43:12and Italy, across the entire
43:14industrialized world, where we have
43:16data. In recent decades, there's been no
43:19change in family structure across these
43:23countries. In the late 1980s, the
43:25average mother was having 2.4 children.
43:2830 years later, that number is exactly
43:31the same. And all of these nations, just
43:34like Japan and Italy in the 1970s, have
43:38transitioned to become childless
43:40nations, nations where 1th3 or more of
43:43people will be childless for life.
43:47[Music]
43:50What is fascinating is how these rapid
43:52transformations align with major
43:55turmoil. For South Korea, it was the
43:58currency crisis of the 1990s that saw
44:02childlessnesses rocket to 45%.
44:07For Germany, the fallen birth rates
44:09coincided with the 1968 student
44:12protests. And while Germany is one of
44:15the countries that doesn't provide the
44:17data needed to calculate childlessness,
44:20we can see they followed the same trend
44:22as Italy and Japan. But it's not just
44:25these countries. The exact same trend
44:28can be seen across Spain, Portugal,
44:31Austria, Switzerland, and beyond.
44:35For America and many countries around
44:37the world, it was a 2007 financial
44:40crisis. Before the crisis, the average
44:44mother in the US was having 2.5 children
44:46and only one in seven people were
44:48childless. Yet, just like other
44:50financial crisis around the world,
44:52within a few short years, childlessness
44:55would rocket to reach 1 in three people.
45:00And yet, during the same time, the
45:02average number of children per mother in
45:04the US increased from 2.5 to 2.6.
45:09[Music]
45:10The 2007 financial meltdown was a global
45:13crisis. And just like the US, the
45:16transition to childlessness happened in
45:18Canada, Malaysia, Netherlands, Costa
45:21Rica, Ireland, and beyond.
45:25With so many examples of crisis around
45:29the world triggering high levels of
45:31childlessness, and with no example of
45:35any society ever recovering, this feels
45:38like a trap.
45:39a birth gap trap where it becomes a
45:42societal norm to start families in their
45:4430s when for many it simply won't
45:48happen. I've been searching for the
45:50answer to the wrong question. Instead of
45:53asking why people are having so few
45:56children today, I should have been
45:58asking why so few people become parents
46:01today. It turns out there is no trend
46:05towards smaller families. People who do
46:08become parents are just as likely to go
46:11on to have two, three, four, or more
46:14children as decades ago. It's all about
46:18having the first child.
46:21With childlessness having exploded so
46:23fast during times of uncertainty in so
46:26many countries, this doesn't feel like
46:29childlessness by choice. This feels like
46:32unplanned childlessness.
46:35Hello, my name is Jod Day and I'm a
46:37childless woman and I'd like to
46:40introduce you to my tribe. This tribe
46:43has always been amongst us. But what's
46:46different about it now are the numbers.
46:48One in five women like me born in the
46:511960s turned 45 without having had
46:54children. That's double what it was for
46:56our mother's generation. It's up to one
46:58in four as what we consider the more
47:00familyoriented cultures like Ireland and
47:03Italy and even macho Australia up to one
47:06in three in Germany and Japan. Now
47:08whilst these numbers don't give us any
47:11qualitative information about why a
47:13woman might not have children.
47:14>> We rarely get to hear from the many
47:16childless people who had hoped to have a
47:19family one day. Yet, academic studies,
47:22large-scale surveys, and my own research
47:24confirm that the majority of childless
47:26people had planned to have children one
47:30day. So, that leaves a whopping 80% of
47:33women without children, childless by
47:35circumstance, with those circumstances
47:38varying widely, but often featuring the
47:40absence of a willing or suitable partner
47:43during our fertile years, or even an
47:45unsuitable partner.
47:48Huh? If you'd heard the heartbreaking
47:50stories I'd heard.
47:53>> So, a big reason why we're seeing more
47:55and more infertility these days is
47:57because of delayed childbearing. As
48:00women's eggs get older, it just gets
48:02harder to get pregnant. Imagine that
48:03these are eggs, okay?
48:07And this is a 20-year-old. So, when a
48:0920-year-old comes in and we do an
48:10ultrasound and we're able to see these
48:1220 follicles, I tell them, "This is
48:13great news. You're 20. you have all
48:15these 20 eggs and this is for this month
48:17and next month you're going to get
48:18another 20 eggs. Except that when a
48:20woman is 20, not all her eggs are good.
48:23For every five eggs that she has, as
48:25young as she is, for every five eggs
48:26that you she has, maybe three of them
48:28are good. Those are the orange ones. And
48:31even a 20-year-old, as healthy and as
48:33young as a 20-year-old is, two of those
48:35eggs out of five might not be good. This
48:37is a 20-year-old.
48:39This is a 45year-old. You see how things
48:41have changed between 20 and 45. Now,
48:4445-year-olds still have good eggs, but
48:45these are hard to find. It's how nature
48:48does its job.
48:49>> Even though there are some amazing
48:50technologies today like egg freezing or
48:53embryo freezing to help women delay this
48:56childbearing time in their life, I don't
48:59think that either the media or what you
49:01hear from other people always really
49:04explains the depths of how much struggle
49:06there really could be. Generally, this
49:09treatment required several cycles,
49:12several trials. And as a as a doctor,
49:17it's it's hard to describe how I'm
49:19feeling seeing those patient who have to
49:24give up that treatment after having a
49:28hard hard time mentally, physically
49:31actually fertility treatment is very
49:33hard. So giving up must be horrendous
49:36for men and women.
49:38>> Yes.
49:40>> When a celebrity conceives late in life,
49:43reproductive life, we probably know it's
49:46an egg donor or it's possible that she
49:48froze embryos a long time ago, it's
49:50definitely a misunderstanding, a
49:53miscommunication, a miseducation of the
49:56public.
49:56>> I literally wake up every single
49:58morning. I get emotional and I like
50:00bless my children cuz I just feel very
50:03very fortunate that I was able to have
50:05them.
50:09>> I'm someone who married at 37 and had
50:12always thought I would have kids and
50:13then it turned out I wasn't going to.
50:14And I think it can be a tremendous
50:16source of unhappiness
50:17>> for me. It it wasn't a decision. I don't
50:21remember a time when I said, "Okay, I'm
50:24not going to have a family." It would
50:28have helped if I'd known it was grief,
50:30or if the doctors and therapists I
50:32consulted about my life wrecking
50:34distress had known. But they didn't.
50:36Grief is a language that this lost tribe
50:39speaks fluently.
50:44[Music]
50:50[Music]
50:59[Music]
51:02Did you want to have children?
51:06[Music]
51:16stud.
51:19[Music]
51:30[Music]
51:33I think if you caught me at the right
51:35day in my 20s when I was very in love or
51:39excited about a partner, I would say
51:41yes.
51:43But if you were to pry into that, I
51:46might say, "Oh, no. That seems crazy to
51:48have a kid in my 20s."
51:57Too late.
52:05[Music]
52:25I just want to get synchronized with my
52:26husband whether our our planned uh our
52:30saying is still uh on the same page.
52:33>> Has he answered you yet?
52:34>> Um he did not actually.
52:36>> Why not ask now?
52:37>> Yeah. Yes.
52:39The we plan to have children shooting
52:41for the fact
52:44>> I wanted at least five kids. Yes.
52:52>> My husband being um ridiculous about
52:55that because I am the age delay. You see
52:58I've been uh I am 44 and then to my
53:01friend
53:06you know he's saying this 5k later I
53:08think it's a joke I feel like I'm a cow
53:09if I lucky it please to pass one
53:12>> one's enough
53:14>> to me yes
53:15>> well best of luck to you both
53:18>> and our cultural script which says you
53:21know sometime around the age of 30 Mr.
53:24magical, amazing will pop up. Um, I
53:27think it is a mistake. If you wait until
53:31you're 28 or 30 to find a partner, well,
53:33you've got five less years of your
53:34fertility to recover from bad dating
53:37mistakes.
53:38[Music]
53:53[Music]
54:01Can I ask if you've given up on the idea
54:05of becoming a mother one day?
54:08[Music]
54:18[Music]
54:23If I had a magic wand, what would I
54:25change? I would have done it earlier. I
54:28would have had children in my 30s. I
54:31think I'm lucky conceiving in my early
54:3440s. So, a lot of women do leave at
54:36late. And, you know, they're not as
54:37fortunate as I was. And I would have
54:39liked a bigger family. I think it would
54:41have been lovely for my son to have had
54:43siblings. It's easy to say now, but yes,
54:46I think I should have done it earlier.
54:49>> I was 40 at the time when I started IVF
54:52treatments. I had my first transfer. So,
54:54they do an embryo transfer and that was
54:57on July 31st and it was successful.
55:01>> That was 3 weeks ago.
55:02>> Mhm.
55:03>> Congratulations.
55:05>> Well, it's But they give you these
55:07statistics. They say at 41 there's all
55:10these complications and
55:14so I'm cautiously optimistic.
55:20[Music]
56:00My thinking right Now for having
56:02children is we are looking into the
56:04adoption process
56:07>> in the US, Europe and Latin America.
56:10People planning to adopt was a common
56:12story.
56:13>> I want kids. Even if I don't meet
56:15somebody, I'm probably going to adopt a
56:16kid.
56:17>> I've also been fascinated with the idea
56:18of adoption. Hands down, 100% I'm going
56:21to adopt.
56:27[Music]
56:31For every infant that's available for
56:33adoption in the US through the domestic
56:35infant adoption system, there are
56:37approximately 30 families hoping to
56:40adopt that infant. So you can just do
56:43the math. That's way more of a demand
56:46for an adoptable infant than there are
56:48babies available. And if we adopt
56:51children, they might not be infants.
56:53They'll probably be older children, you
56:55know, maybe 8 years old.
56:58>> Meanwhile, international adoption is
57:01getting harder and harder as more and
57:03more countries look after their own
57:05orphan children.
57:06>> I tried to do international adoption. We
57:09went to a lot of orphanages in Mexico,
57:13Guatemala.
57:15Um I went to one in Costa Rica. And
57:18right as we were going to start the
57:19process, I got a call saying that, you
57:23know, Guatemala had decided not to do
57:25any out of state adoptions. It was it
57:28was devastating. Someone choosing to
57:30place a child for adoption is a very
57:33rare choice. I um have a lot of empathy
57:35for people who want to be parents, but
57:37there's no guarantees that a family that
57:40wants to adopt a baby will adopt a baby.
57:43Naturally, becoming a mother isn't for
57:46everyone, but sometimes people do change
57:48their minds.
57:49>> Um, I was 32 when I had that biological
57:52urge to wanting to have kids.
57:56>> Yeah. To me, it came sudden. I didn't
57:58really care to have kids and just I just
58:02woke up. I felt like, okay, this is my
58:04year. I need to have I need to have a
58:07baby. That was the only thing that I
58:08could think of.
58:16And for at least some people planning to
58:18be childless for life, test driving
58:20being a parent for a day can change
58:22minds.
58:23>> I didn't really want to marry or get a
58:25child before joining this program.
58:28>> Oh, really? You were thinking of being
58:30childless?
58:30>> Yes. I I wasn't really sure. Didn't
58:33really like I didn't really like the
58:35concept of family or getting married. So
58:40visiting four families changed my view.
58:43>> But for some people who changed their
58:45minds, it's simply too late.
58:49>> Sometimes I realize that when I get old
58:52like my mom, mom's age, I won't be able
58:56to have the same experience like her
58:59because I don't have child. So I enjoyed
59:02that my life. But now I regret.
59:05>> You regret.
59:07Women appear to be much more open to
59:10talking about unplanned childlessness,
59:13but clearly it affects men, too.
59:16>> So, welcome to World Childless Week,
59:18everyone. I'm Michael Hughes. Let's go
59:20around the room. So, how about you go
59:21first, Donnie?
59:22>> I'm Don and um I'm in Los Angeles. I'm
59:26childless. My circumstance is uh not
59:29finding a life partner.
59:30>> Tim, how about you go next?
59:32>> My name is Tim. I'm German. We have just
59:36decided that we will not continue with
59:37IVF. 25 years of thinking you would have
59:40kids or we would have kids. Um, and all
59:42of a sudden realizing, well, we won't.
59:44>> Thanks, Tim. Ken, it's great to see you
59:46here cuz I know you I know you've been
59:48battling. I I'm better now than I was a
59:50couple of years ago when I like lost my
59:51mind for for probably about a year. This
59:54is the the only place where I can freely
59:55and openly speak about, you know, the
59:58feelings of being childless and
59:59everything. There's nobody I have at
1:00:01work or a friend or anything like that.
1:00:03No, I I spent a lot of a lot of lonely
1:00:06times within myself, I guess, go going
1:00:09over these things, what what never was,
1:00:12you know, what'll never be and uh how to
1:00:14deal with it. Hearing hearing people
1:00:16talk about their kids in all situations,
1:00:18you know, at work.
1:00:20>> The thing is, you may look at our lives
1:00:22and think that they're like your lives,
1:00:24but with more freedom and cleaner
1:00:26furniture, but what you can't see is our
1:00:30grief.
1:00:32>> What's going through your mind right
1:00:33now? Would anyone like to share that?
1:00:36It all starts with us.
1:00:39And as as we see the young children
1:00:41around us grow,
1:00:44that's what
1:00:46gets me.
1:00:49Yeah.
1:00:53>> You would have been a wonderful father.
1:01:01Or maybe you're thinking, "Ah, actually,
1:01:02this is all a bit melodramatic, Jody.
1:01:04Surely it's not that bad." Let me just
1:01:07share with you just a few of the things
1:01:09we've lost. That not only will we never
1:01:11have children, but we'll never create
1:01:13our own family. Never throw children's
1:01:16birthday parties, never take that first
1:01:18day at school photo. We'll never see
1:01:20them maybe grow up, graduate, get
1:01:22married, and have their only kids. We'll
1:01:24never be grandmothers and never give the
1:01:26gift of grandchildren to our parents.
1:01:28But I stand here today astonished that I
1:01:32survived the initiation right it took to
1:01:35join this trying.
1:01:39The stories of people who grieve the
1:01:42children they planned to have are deeply
1:01:45personal.
1:01:47But behind these personal stories, a
1:01:50very common story emerged. a strikingly
1:01:53symmetrical pattern in the data of every
1:01:56country I researched. And that symmetry
1:02:00finally revealed the singular factor
1:02:03driving low birth rates everywhere.
1:02:07Remember, across the industrialized
1:02:09world, family size has been locked in
1:02:11for a generation or more for those who
1:02:14do become parents.
1:02:16But why does simply delaying parenthood
1:02:20lead to so many people never becoming
1:02:23parents at all. And why does unplanned
1:02:27childlessness so rarely recover?
1:02:31Finding answers to that took me 8 years
1:02:34of research. In 2024, I found myself
1:02:38staring at something extraordinary, a
1:02:41nearperfect symmetrical bell curve. The
1:02:44implications of this curve were so
1:02:46profound that I delayed this documentary
1:02:49by a year to understand it.
1:02:52I call it the vitality curve, showing
1:02:55the number of new mothers by mother's
1:02:57age. It exists for fathers, too, peaking
1:03:01just a few years older and falling away
1:03:04just as fast.
1:03:06In recent times, with fewer and fewer of
1:03:09us starting families in our 20s, the
1:03:11vitality curve has stretched and
1:03:14stretched and grown flatter and flatter,
1:03:17but it's still there. And remarkably, in
1:03:21every cohesive society, the vitality
1:03:24curve is smooth. There are no bumps and
1:03:27no skewed towards later parenthood.
1:03:30Where is the flux of people having
1:03:31children in their mid30s? And where is
1:03:34the uptick from IVF?
1:03:36[Music]
1:03:38The near-perfect symmetry between those
1:03:40who are having children after the peak
1:03:42age and before explains mathematically
1:03:46why delayed parenthood leads to mass
1:03:49unplanned childlessness.
1:03:52Vitality like a synchronizing force of
1:03:56nature coordinates birth rates
1:03:59regardless of housing, child care, baby
1:04:02bonuses, or anything else. Important as
1:04:06these things are, of course, they don't
1:04:09determine birth rates because they can't
1:04:12explain the symmetry of the vitality
1:04:15curve.
1:04:17Instead, it's the average age of
1:04:20parenthood in a society that acts like a
1:04:23lock and limits the number of people who
1:04:27will become parents. And my latest
1:04:30research indicates this may all be
1:04:32linked to a drop in social
1:04:34synchronization,
1:04:36people not being on the same page at the
1:04:39same time. And it may be that unless
1:04:42societies return to being on the same
1:04:44page at a younger age, this demographic
1:04:47winter may never end.
1:04:51At its heart, the birth rate crisis is
1:04:54driven by a false promise that young
1:04:57people can have it all. But societies
1:05:01can't beat the fatality curve. It's
1:05:04real. And the risk of missing out on
1:05:06family is high.
1:05:10[Music]
1:05:11>> If I would have the compatibility with a
1:05:14man, 65% I'm ready to marry. That is a
1:05:17percentage I do have in my mind. 65%.
1:05:20Because nobody finds anybody 100%.
1:05:22>> Yeah, that's more than enough. But I'm
1:05:24not looking for any alpha men. I'm not.
1:05:41[Music]
1:05:55[Music]
1:06:02Hundreds of years ago, there were
1:06:04hunters and the gatherers. The hunters
1:06:05were men. They would go out there. They
1:06:06were big and strong. As soon as the meat
1:06:08comes home and then the wife, now it's
1:06:10her turn to step in. If we equate this
1:06:12hunting to us going out and working,
1:06:15then men and women are both hunting.
1:06:18There's no hunter gatherer version 10
1:06:20where there should be. So if you're not
1:06:22doing at least as well as I am at work
1:06:25or you don't have ambitions to do more
1:06:28at home, then how is this going to be a
1:06:31balanced life for me? Then marriage or
1:06:33whatever it is this this construct is
1:06:35convenient for you and I don't get any
1:06:37benefit.
1:06:49I would want to marry somebody who is
1:06:50doing at least the same or better than
1:06:53me. Bring in the bacon, you know, bring
1:06:55me my wild animal. Bring me something
1:06:57that that makes this worth it.
1:07:01>> You're 38. Do you think about maybe
1:07:04getting married one day?
1:07:10It's It's
1:07:17[Music]
1:07:30He's not only going to help me, he's
1:07:32also going to help himself. Because if I
1:07:35will be happy, I'll be happy with him.
1:07:37If I'll be angry, my anger will be
1:07:39impacted on him. I don't think any wise
1:07:42man is going to make angry his wife. Not
1:07:46even you. Right.
1:07:48>> Yes.
1:07:49I think I'm looking for
1:07:52probably someone who's the exact
1:07:54opposite of me.
1:07:55>> Where do you think you might find this
1:07:56person?
1:07:57>> I don't know. Maybe walking down the
1:07:58street in Los Angeles on like Labraa and
1:08:00just like, "Hey,
1:08:07>> and for some there are simply too many
1:08:10people to choose from."
1:08:16>> Options. Yes. No chill.
1:08:18>> Do you worry if you don't have children?
1:08:20>> Yeah, I worry that. Worry about that.
1:08:22>> You do worry?
1:08:23>> Yeah, cuz
1:08:25I don't want to be here
1:08:28>> by myself every day.
1:08:29>> Alone.
1:08:29>> Alone. Alone. Lonely. Alone.
1:08:34>> For.
1:08:36Did you think one day you would have a
1:08:38child or did you not want a child?
1:08:41>> I had a many choices before because I
1:08:45was young. Before women in the world,
1:08:48women has no choice only only to get
1:08:53married to make a child only choice. But
1:08:57now uh we women have many many choices.
1:09:02>> You think you're marrying your
1:09:03ex-husband?
1:09:04>> Mhm. Yeah. Three times.
1:09:07>> Three times.
1:09:08>> The same man. The same man. Yeah.
1:09:11>> Cuz now you know you want to have a
1:09:13child together.
1:09:14>> Yeah. I'm 3 6 years old now. So I think
1:09:18in my opinion this is a last chance for
1:09:21me to make a child.
1:09:23>> 3 years later Isam would get her wish.
1:09:26After multiple rounds of expensive IVF,
1:09:30she gave birth to a baby boy. But age is
1:09:33not the only barrier to getting pregnant
1:09:36as Emmy Sam found out.
1:09:38>> Why did you not have children?
1:09:40>> I tried.
1:09:42That's why. And
1:09:48if you want to have a baby from Africa,
1:09:53>> she was born and raised in a popular
1:09:56suburb of northern Tokyo called
1:09:58Takashima Dyra, popular with young
1:10:01families at the time.
1:10:04[Music]
1:10:06>> So this is Takashima Dyra.
1:10:09[Music]
1:10:16[Music]
1:10:22In the early 1970s, Takashima Dyra had a
1:10:26kindergarten crisis. For every place
1:10:28available, there were 10 children
1:10:30waiting. Wind the clock forward and
1:10:32today Japan has a care home crisis with
1:10:36people in their 80s and 90s unable to
1:10:39look after themselves having to wait
1:10:41years for a place in a care home. In
1:10:44this national TV talk show famous
1:10:47celebrities were asked to watch how old
1:10:50people are left to fend for themselves.
1:10:53And all of this was triggered by the oil
1:10:56shock which led to a baby shock and saw
1:11:00delayed parenthood become the societal
1:11:02norm and transform Japan into this
1:11:06lonely childless world.
1:11:10And the same baby shock is coming to a
1:11:13town or city near you.
1:11:19[Music]
1:11:32Is absolutely everything negative
1:11:34though?
1:11:34>> Yeah. Sorry. Everything Everything's
1:11:36negative.
1:11:38>> Sorry. It's It's terrible.
1:11:42And the worst thing is you can't get out
1:11:44of it.
1:11:44>> Everyone just starts having lots of
1:11:46babies.
1:11:47But that why why is that going to
1:11:49happen? It's like waking up today and
1:11:51expecting today to be really different
1:11:53to yesterday. Something fundamental has
1:11:55to happen for behavior to change.
1:11:58>> Yeah.
1:12:00>> And the kind of fundamental changes that
1:12:03might happen.
1:12:07>> Yeah. We're talking after both economic
1:12:10and social challenges that today we're
1:12:12not geared up for. Maybe when things
1:12:15like that happen, people will change and
1:12:18will prioritize having their own family
1:12:20again. Maybe that will become the core
1:12:21thing. But something fundamental is
1:12:24going to have to change. We're talking
1:12:26about rapidly increasing taxes. We're
1:12:28talking about failing pension systems,
1:12:31health care systems that can't be
1:12:32funded. We're talking about loneliness
1:12:35of old people. And we're talking about
1:12:37street after street of derelict houses
1:12:40with some people living in those areas
1:12:42with dereliction around them. That's the
1:12:46reality of what's already happening in
1:12:48parts of Europe and Japan.
1:12:52And have you been back in that time 30
1:12:55years?
1:13:02[Music]
1:13:11[Music]
1:13:18[Music]
1:13:21Wow, that's
1:13:28[Music]
1:13:43shock
1:13:56level. for
1:13:58[Music]
1:14:11what had changed from 1973
1:14:14when the global oil shock triggered
1:14:16unplanned childlessness here. It's easy
1:14:20to understand why young people delayed
1:14:22the idea of becoming parents.
1:14:26What few knew then is that for many this
1:14:30would mean childlessness for life.
1:14:34Occupancy of these 10,000 apartments
1:14:37remains almost 100%.
1:14:40The difference now is the lack of
1:14:42children.
1:14:44In 2007, the local elementary school
1:14:47closed just like thousands of schools
1:14:50all across Japan. The final intake was
1:14:55just
1:14:57one boy.
1:15:20And it's true there isn't a city, town,
1:15:23or village across Japan that hasn't been
1:15:26impacted by delay parenthood. Do we know
1:15:29the name of this mall? What was the name
1:15:30of the town first?
1:15:31>> Uh, Suzak.
1:15:33>> Suzaka. Yes, Suzaka. Town of I think
1:15:3751,000 people. We're close to the center
1:15:40near the station. I think we found this
1:15:42mall randomly.
1:15:43>> And out of 26 stores, five are open, 21
1:15:48are closed permanently.
1:15:51So, wow.
1:15:54That's less than 20% open.
1:16:00[Music]
1:16:03Do you think communities across Japan
1:16:05are going to have budget problems in the
1:16:08next 10 years or so?
1:16:10>> 10 years. I think 5 years when we see
1:16:14the real situation in this region, maybe
1:16:18within 3 years, the city or towns that
1:16:22have to think about like bankrupting or
1:16:24something like that. So,
1:16:26>> and this low birth rate key factor.
1:16:29Yeah.
1:16:30>> I'm just thinking why.
1:16:36I'm just thinking why. One of the
1:16:39saddest things I find in Japan in the
1:16:42last 15 years, 6,000 schools have
1:16:45closed. From this, you have a loss of
1:16:48many things, including a loss of
1:16:50community around these school areas.
1:16:52This is one of the most sad things I see
1:16:54everywhere.
1:16:54>> Not only in
1:16:55>> Not only in Japan. Um, it's like a
1:16:58hidden uh problem, but it starts to eat
1:17:01as a community really as years go by.
1:17:07>> You'd like to make memo from your story
1:17:10about like what is the other town doing?
1:17:15>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:17:17>> I was hoping this long-erving mayor
1:17:20would share the town's secrets on coping
1:17:22with population decline. instead he
1:17:26wanted ideas from other parts of the
1:17:28world but I hadn't come across
1:17:30successful strategies anywhere I think
1:17:33from what I see that once a town starts
1:17:37to decline population it becomes more
1:17:41and more difficult to stop the decline
1:17:44as many homes become vacant tax base
1:17:47goes down that young people get pushed
1:17:51away from these towns
1:17:54and No one has the answer cuz once it
1:17:56starts to go down very difficult to
1:17:57stop.
1:17:59[Music]
1:18:01>> It's difficult to find new workers.
1:18:10They're significantly different when
1:18:12they compare to the past.
1:18:24[Music]
1:18:30You just told me.
1:18:36[Music]
1:18:45While we were filming, unknown to me,
1:18:48our production assistant, Mia, was
1:18:50talking to some locals. They explained
1:18:53how the week before, a 90-year-old woman
1:18:56with no family had thrown herself from
1:18:59the roof. on one man said
1:19:02[Music]
1:19:04right right there
1:19:10she fell off
1:19:13because she was moving.
1:19:20Back near the station, I asked a store
1:19:23owner and his mother how often this
1:19:26happens.
1:19:32On a weekly basis in this Tokyo suburb,
1:19:36old people were throwing themselves from
1:19:38the roofs or their corpses were being
1:19:41found in their homes.
1:19:44These aren't aging societies.
1:19:47These are yesterlands,
1:19:49hidden yesterlands.
1:19:54A humanitarian crisis is unfolding of
1:19:58senior people left to live alone and die
1:20:01alone. A crisis few people want to talk
1:20:05about.
1:20:08I'd hope to meet the director of the
1:20:10largest crerematorium in southwest
1:20:12Germany to ask what happens to the dead
1:20:15when there's no one to bury them.
1:20:19>> It's a growing businesses. people
1:20:21haven't got any family the deaths are
1:20:24thrown away like thrown away and call
1:20:28Mr. counselor. He says that he has not
1:20:32to tell this uh because uh they make him
1:20:38Yes.
1:20:40>> I never found out what was exactly meant
1:20:43by throwing the dead away, but I didn't
1:20:46need to. I understood that these are
1:20:49people who likely spend their last days
1:20:51alone without family or friends to
1:20:54support them.
1:21:05I think it's sad that we're only
1:21:07starting to think of problems like
1:21:09loneliness
1:21:11in Tokyo. Lonely old people are even
1:21:14jumping from the roof.
1:21:34competit.
1:21:38[Music]
1:21:50[Music]
1:21:52But there's something that seems kind of
1:21:53pessimistic and sad about
1:21:57wanting to see human numbers decline.
1:22:02I realize we've got a very crowded
1:22:03world, but it sounds kind of lonely,
1:22:10>> but not everyone shares my concerns for
1:22:15life in these lonely yesterlands.
1:22:19I've never heard this concern. What I
1:22:22continue to hear about is overpopulation
1:22:25cuz there's just so many people. We're
1:22:28going to max out. you might not know the
1:22:30planet. I know Elon Musk is working on
1:22:33that.
1:22:34>> It's interesting because you talk about
1:22:35declining birth rates, but we also talk
1:22:37about overpopulation. So, like what is
1:22:39it? Is it overpopulation or is it
1:22:42declining?
1:22:43>> Well, I thought you say you were saying
1:22:45it's going to increase.
1:22:46>> The total population will increase for a
1:22:49time because of aging, but birth rates
1:22:51are falling almost everywhere.
1:22:53>> How does Sorry, I'm leftrained. How does
1:22:56that make sense if the birth rate is
1:22:59going down?
1:23:00>> I know it's confusing. There's a Swedish
1:23:03professor who calls it the fill up
1:23:05effect. We're just filling up with older
1:23:07people these days.
1:23:08>> We got 3 billion more. I'll do it once
1:23:10more. The old die, the rest grow.
1:23:13>> People who preach about population
1:23:15growth are simply living in the past.
1:23:21Sometime in the next 15 years, the end
1:23:23will come. And by the end, I mean an
1:23:25utter breakdown of the capacity of the
1:23:26planet to support humanity.
1:23:28>> The president ought to say, "From here
1:23:30on out, no intelligent, patriotic
1:23:33American family uh ought to have more
1:23:35than two children, preferably one."
1:23:37>> Unless now we think of what America is
1:23:39going to be like, this increase in
1:23:41population, we're going to wreak the
1:23:44whirlwind.
1:23:44>> In the late 1960s, a young butterfly
1:23:47specialist, Paul Erlick, rocketed to
1:23:50fame with his passion for population
1:23:52control. He appeared on Johnny Carson's
1:23:54Tonight Show no less than 18 times, and
1:23:57went on to fund Population Connection,
1:24:00an organization known as Zero Population
1:24:02Growth at the time.
1:24:03>> It was about 10 years ago this month
1:24:05that Dr. Paul Erlick made his first
1:24:06appearance on the Tonight Show, and it
1:24:08elicited probably more male than any
1:24:10guest at that time we have ever had on a
1:24:11show.
1:24:12>> Erlick has been credited with starting
1:24:14the population control movement, views
1:24:16he still holds to this day.
1:24:18>> I do not think my language is too
1:24:20apocalyptic. The idea that every woman
1:24:22should have as many babies as she wants
1:24:25uh is to me exactly the same kind of
1:24:27idea as everybody ought to be permitted
1:24:30to throw as much of their garbage into
1:24:31their neighbor's backyard as they want.
1:24:36>> 50 years on, the organization Erlick
1:24:38founded remains the largest educator in
1:24:41the US on population matters.
1:24:43>> Our materials are integrated into the
1:24:45classroom. We have about 50,000 teachers
1:24:48in the US who reach about 3 million US
1:24:51students every year. And we're simply
1:24:53trying to get students to think about
1:24:54these issues. And yet one topic they
1:24:58don't cover, the transition to low
1:25:00fertility and the resulting challenges
1:25:03from population decline. Do you have any
1:25:06concern at all about those countries
1:25:08like Japan or South Korea? Does your
1:25:11organization, you look at that as a a
1:25:14concern or perhaps purely a good thing?
1:25:18>> Let's come back to that.
1:25:20>> No, no, I'm happy to I'm happy to go
1:25:21there. It's just wherever you want to
1:25:23go.
1:25:23>> But there's some parts of the world
1:25:24where it's quite scary because there's
1:25:26so few children now. In Japan, schools
1:25:28are closing at one or two per day.
1:25:35We have just walked no more than 5
1:25:37minutes from the first school we saw was
1:25:39closed.
1:25:42This one's close, too.
1:25:44[Music]
1:25:48>> I think the concerns are overblown. We
1:25:52seem to be doing okay. It doesn't seem
1:25:54like we've gone into some sort of an
1:25:56economic deaths spiral.
1:25:58What we need to do is remove barriers
1:26:01that prevent people from being
1:26:03productive members of the workforce.
1:26:05I've seen research, for example, that
1:26:07shows that BMW in Germany found that its
1:26:11older workers in assembly plants were
1:26:13less productive than the younger
1:26:14workers. But then they looked at why.
1:26:17They did two things. They put in wooden
1:26:20floors instead of concrete floors cuz
1:26:22old knees tend to be sore knees. Second,
1:26:25they installed magnification equipment
1:26:28because older eyes tend to not be quite
1:26:31as good as young ones. The head of
1:26:32Deutsche Bank once said, "Young people
1:26:34run faster, but old people know where
1:26:36the shortcuts are."
1:26:38And so break down those barriers. And if
1:26:41you do that, our economy in terms of
1:26:45economic growth will be just fine.
1:26:48>> Wooden floors and magnifying glasses are
1:26:51not going to scratch the surface of this
1:26:53crisis. A more common suggestion is that
1:26:56automation and AI will save us. But
1:26:58there's one fundamental flaw. Robots
1:27:01don't pay taxes.
1:27:03>> I'm an economist. I was basically
1:27:05educated in the 1980s. Demographics
1:27:09played almost no role in economic
1:27:12theory. Although now working on Japan, I
1:27:14see that it's the biggest factor. When
1:27:17societies age, those who are in
1:27:19employment, they need to become more
1:27:21productive in order to support the
1:27:23larger portion of people who are out of
1:27:25employment. This ratio is getting worse
1:27:27and worse. Uh it's easy to predict the
1:27:29future old generation will probably have
1:27:32to work much longer than they now expect
1:27:35or accept uh worse living conditions.
1:27:38>> Old people can still vote. They're going
1:27:40to vote for policies to support higher
1:27:42pensions which is going to hurt younger
1:27:44people if they have to, you know,
1:27:46support them. And so
1:27:46>> this is certainly true in Germany, I
1:27:49would say, uh where pension reforms have
1:27:51been against the younger generation. One
1:27:55of the things that they are trying to do
1:27:57in the reform is to create a
1:28:00capitalization system where the guy that
1:28:03is working today uh saves the money put
1:28:06in the bank and that is the money that's
1:28:09going to finance his retirement. Okay.
1:28:12But it's a process that is very
1:28:14expensive because then the guy that is
1:28:17uh working today it has to finance the
1:28:20retired people in itself it twice and
1:28:24this transition process is very
1:28:26difficult.
1:28:28>> Burgeoning elderly care budgets won't be
1:28:30our only financial headache.
1:28:33Fewer and fewer taxpayers means the
1:28:35annual interest payments on our
1:28:37burgeoning national debts will be shared
1:28:39by fewer and fewer people. But if you're
1:28:41a country that has a huge level of debt,
1:28:44for example, you are expecting one of
1:28:46two things to happen. Either your
1:28:48workforce is going to grow or the
1:28:51productivity of that workforce is going
1:28:52to grow because that's going to generate
1:28:54the extra income that you need to pay
1:28:56the debt. Well, if your workforce is
1:28:57shrinking, the productivity has to go up
1:28:59even faster. And here's the thing that
1:29:01we're just starting to talk about, which
1:29:03is that in fact, as your workforce ages,
1:29:05productivity goes down.
1:29:07[Music]
1:29:10Another inevitable consequence of the
1:29:13birth gap crisis is that communities are
1:29:16going to have too much housing for the
1:29:18shrinking number of people left to live
1:29:20there. And to get a sense of what that's
1:29:22going to feel like, we only need to go
1:29:25to Detroit, Michigan. The city itself
1:29:28was once home to 2 million people before
1:29:31that number fell by over 60%.
1:29:34As its population left, once fancy
1:29:37neighborhoods decayed as home after home
1:29:39became vacant, leaving the value of the
1:29:42other properties in freef fall. And we
1:29:44turn next to a big headline tonight out
1:29:46of America's iconic motor city, Detroit,
1:29:49waving the white flag. The city filing
1:29:51for bankruptcy.
1:29:53>> 78,000 abandoned buildings. 63% of its
1:29:57population gone. So empty, the city of
1:29:59Paris could fit inside the vacant space.
1:30:02Detroit's population decline was
1:30:05triggered by an exodus of workers, but
1:30:08the math is the same. Communities with
1:30:10falling workforces, taxpayers, and
1:30:13budgets will soon look and feel very
1:30:15different. Once Detroit's population
1:30:18finally stabilized, it was able to plan
1:30:20a way out of its difficulties.
1:30:23The problem for nations with long-term
1:30:25low birth rates is that until birth
1:30:27rates return to replacement level, the
1:30:30decline will never stop.
1:30:32And just like Detroit before it
1:30:34bankruptcy, economies will suffer when
1:30:37year after year there will be fewer
1:30:38customers and revenue for businesses and
1:30:41for governments a shrinking tax base.
1:30:45We will have to retrofit our entire
1:30:47economies to somehow function in our
1:30:50decaying yesterlands.
1:30:53That merits a whole new branch of
1:30:55economics, retronomics. The study of how
1:30:59to continually retrofit our economies
1:31:01when growth becomes a thing of the past.
1:31:05And having built our economies based on
1:31:07growth, that's going to be a major
1:31:10change.
1:31:11>> It's a change that can be coped with in
1:31:14a number of different respects. A number
1:31:17of things have to happen though. You
1:31:19have to reinvent government pretty
1:31:22fundamentally. You can't stay with a pay
1:31:26as you go uh pension system, for
1:31:29example, if you've got two retirees for
1:31:32every worker. You've got to reinvent
1:31:34that. You've got to turn that all the
1:31:36way around. You probably aren't going to
1:31:39continue to pay people more and more and
1:31:42more over the course of their lives. All
1:31:44of these things require what could be
1:31:48bigwrenching changes. And this is just
1:31:51the economic side. The social side is
1:31:55really the terrain incognita. I mean,
1:31:58what do you do in a world where the
1:32:00playgrounds are empty and the nursing
1:32:03homes are all full?
1:32:04>> I mean, the really grim scenario is that
1:32:07at some point the government simply
1:32:08cannot support pensions
1:32:11and people look at their parents and
1:32:13say, "Dear God, I can't end up like
1:32:16that." Or they look at childless old
1:32:18people they know and say, "Dear God, I
1:32:19cannot end up like that. I'd better have
1:32:21some kids because someone's got to take
1:32:23care of me when I'm older.
1:32:36[Music]
1:32:47I think about my future and me going
1:32:50going to retire eventually
1:32:53not actually having any money that's
1:32:54going to have that's not just me that's
1:32:56a whole generation. I don't know if
1:32:58there's any historical examples of
1:33:02a country really turning this around.
1:33:06No, no, no.
1:33:10That's bad.
1:33:13It's hard to be optimistic. Are you?
1:33:17>> No, I'm not. Especially like 15, 20
1:33:20years from now. We losing about 1
1:33:23million population a year. 1 million
1:33:26population is
1:33:28>> the size of city.
1:33:29>> It is like a huge city, metropolitan
1:33:31city.
1:33:34If Japan cannot deal with it, it's going
1:33:37to be really business to many countries.
1:33:42>> Singapore needs more babies and the
1:33:44government's taking extraordinary steps
1:33:46to boost the country's fertility rate.
1:33:48>> Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is
1:33:49promising more money for parents of
1:33:51infants.
1:33:51>> With private companies stepping up to
1:33:53fix Taiwan's population crisis, one bank
1:33:56is doing its part by doubling its baby
1:33:59bonus for staff.
1:34:00>> So the more kids you pop out, the more
1:34:02money you get. That's right. The problem
1:34:03with baby bonuses is that it's not clear
1:34:06they change people's long-term desired
1:34:10family size. In many countries that
1:34:13introduce those pronatal bonuses, you
1:34:16get a blip up and then you get a slump
1:34:18afterwards because you just change the
1:34:20timing.
1:34:23>> We've been looking at areas in southern
1:34:25India where you also have fertility
1:34:27rates similar to Europe.
1:34:29>> Sure.
1:34:29>> Which shocked me.
1:34:30>> Isn't that fascinating?
1:34:33The vitality curve can be full of
1:34:36surprises.
1:34:38In 2023,
1:34:40India overtook China to become the most
1:34:43populous nation on Earth.
1:34:46Yet, births in India have fallen by over
1:34:4920% since they peaked back in 2001.
1:34:54The number of people aging has simply
1:34:57hidden this drastic fall in the number
1:35:00of children. So I just pulled population
1:35:05data for India yesterday and I've just
1:35:08pulled up a map.
1:35:11All of southern India has birth caps.
1:35:14All of the east coast and two states in
1:35:18the north. People think they're having
1:35:20too many babies in India. My gosh.
1:35:26Overall, India has a birth cap. It's
1:35:28crazy. It's crazy.
1:35:45in India. Well, what's your perception?
1:35:47Are people having large families or
1:35:48smaller families?
1:35:49>> Nowadays, they are moving uh towards a
1:35:51small family.
1:35:52>> Small family.
1:35:53>> It is because of the mindset of the
1:35:54children.
1:35:56>> But for you and your friends, you have
1:35:58big families or small family?
1:35:59>> No, no, small family. Ordinary family
1:36:02only two children.
1:36:03>> I've been living in Mumbai for the last
1:36:0542 years. I've got two kids, two boys.
1:36:09>> I got two kids. uh one daughter and one
1:36:12son.
1:36:13>> I don't have any children because we
1:36:14decided not to have the kids.
1:36:17[Music]
1:36:35Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank
1:36:37you.
1:36:52[Music]
1:36:58starting
1:37:00condition.
1:37:02Why is she crying?
1:37:05She still wants to become a charted
1:37:07accountant.
1:37:08>> You're crying because you want to be an
1:37:10accountant.
1:37:11>> So, what are your plans for your future?
1:37:15>> Great. My friends who have children,
1:37:18they don't get to live their lives. I'm
1:37:19not saying that the lives that they are
1:37:21living right now are less than perfect
1:37:24or not something that they wanted, but
1:37:26uh it stops them from doing some things.
1:37:28And I don't like not having that
1:37:31freedom. I keep oscillating between the
1:37:33idea of having my own children or uh
1:37:36adopting or even not having any children
1:37:40at all.
1:37:40>> How many children do you think you might
1:37:42want to have?
1:37:43>> Maybe.
1:37:44>> At least two. Maybe more.
1:37:47>> Same questions to you. You're 13.
1:37:53>> Why only one?
1:37:59>> Thank you.
1:38:02>> By 2024,
1:38:0490% of India states were already below
1:38:08replacement level. And just like Japan,
1:38:12Europe, and the US, this trend isn't
1:38:14being driven by one child families.
1:38:18Instead, a decrease in vitality and
1:38:21increased childlessness is taking its
1:38:24toll. India, like its neighbors, is
1:38:28being transformed into an inverted
1:38:30world.
1:38:32What a change.
1:38:47Foreign
1:38:50speech. Foreign speech. Foreign speech.
1:38:56[Music]
1:39:00Foreign speech. Foreign foreign foreign
1:39:01speech.
1:39:28[Music]
1:39:30So, how long to walk up to the house?
1:39:33>> 20 minutes.
1:39:35>> And you walked there yourself?
1:39:37>> Yeah.
1:39:37>> To find a large family for me?
1:39:39>> Yeah. Actually, that is the house. uh of
1:39:41Kaman Tamang who has the a large family
1:39:45six kids
1:39:47>> because you couldn't find large families
1:39:49anywhere here. No, I went to different
1:39:52villages maybe talk with hundreds of
1:39:55people and I didn't find one.
1:39:59So this is where I found Nepal is really
1:40:02changing.
1:40:03>> Yeah, it is 20 minutes. Okay, let's go.
1:40:14We can take some rest.
1:40:18[Music]
1:40:26>> I'm happy to see you guys.
1:40:29>> With no access to electricity or running
1:40:32water, the family all sleep in one room
1:40:35and share their living space with their
1:40:37livestock.
1:40:45What do I do?
1:41:08But hot hands have changed for their
1:41:10children's generation.
1:41:13Can she read and write?
1:41:15>> And did your husband get an education?
1:41:20>> So how did you meet
1:41:21>> mobile
1:41:24app?
1:41:26Without access to electricity, the girls
1:41:29have to hike to a local village 30
1:41:31minutes away to charge their phones.
1:41:34>> How many children would you like to
1:41:36have?
1:41:38[Music]
1:41:49was important to have a son.
1:41:56>> The birth gap project threw up many
1:41:59surprises but perhaps nothing more than
1:42:02the dark side of migration.
1:42:07For example, in case of our country, I'm
1:42:10telling you repeatedly migration,
1:42:12migration, we are my god very much
1:42:14worried, very much worried about people
1:42:17living about people living here. People
1:42:20are crying, crying, crying. My gods
1:42:23horrible parents are alone there.
1:42:26So who will help them? Actually,
1:42:34how long will you be here in Kandon?
1:42:36>> Until Tuesday. Until Tuesday. I don't
1:42:38know if you get time. Actually, you
1:42:39could give one lecture to our young
1:42:41students. Why not today?
1:42:43>> Put on the spot. All I could think of
1:42:46was to ask these young demographers
1:42:48about their own families and to ask more
1:42:51about migration. I learned so much from
1:42:53professor today about migration, the
1:42:55impact because I think most people in
1:42:57developed countries think that inviting
1:43:00immigrants to come is probably a good
1:43:03thing to help solve this problem to
1:43:05bring workers. But I'm realizing it's
1:43:07not very good for Nepal if everybody
1:43:08leaves.
1:43:09>> Nobody wants to um go far away from
1:43:11their family. Uh generally if we have
1:43:14opportunities a lot of opportunities
1:43:15here then there's no sense that we
1:43:17should go abroad or somewhere else.
1:43:19>> Good point. I agree with you. You agree?
1:43:21Yeah.
1:43:22>> Okay. I'm going to take a poll now. I
1:43:23want to find out who's got the most
1:43:25children here. Has anyone got 10
1:43:26children?
1:43:28>> No. Five children or more? Three
1:43:31children or more?
1:43:33>> No.
1:43:35>> Two children?
1:43:36>> Two. Exactly two.
1:43:39>> Okay. One child.
1:43:42>> Same question, but it's your parents'
1:43:44generation. Did anyone have a parent
1:43:45with 10 or more children? Eight. Okay.
1:43:48Eight. Okay. It's the highest. Is anyone
1:43:50higher than eight?
1:43:51>> Eight.
1:43:52>> 68. So, so there's been a big change in
1:43:55Nepal I think inside one generation
1:43:57really
1:44:00fell below the replacement level tipping
1:44:03point in 2017 from double that value as
1:44:07recently as the year 2000. The fertility
1:44:10rate I mean I read 20 years ago Nepal
1:44:12had this plan to get it down to
1:44:14replacement level and that has happened
1:44:16now. But does Nepal not really mind if
1:44:20it falls further?
1:44:21>> It's not good. So falling below the
1:44:23replacement level I actually don't like
1:44:26that. It should not be the case like
1:44:27that of European countries, North
1:44:29America replacement level is enough.
1:44:32>> Today 75% of us now live in countries
1:44:36below the replacement level. And what
1:44:39surprises many is that even across
1:44:42Africa birth rates have been falling
1:44:45fast. Overall, since 1980, women in
1:44:50subsaharan Africa on average are having
1:44:53one fewer child every 15 years. It's not
1:44:57difficult to predict where this trend is
1:44:59going. Africa is on the exact same
1:45:02downward path as the rest of our aging
1:45:06world.
1:45:13What I want is more me children.
1:45:16I have one child now. This is him
1:45:18sitting by me. His name is Destiny. I
1:45:20was in GS3 when I lost my dad. So I need
1:45:24to drop out because there was no help
1:45:25for me to further my education. So I
1:45:29need to drop because of the situation of
1:45:31our country. Poverty is everywhere and
1:45:35no help. So we need more children, more
1:45:38milk. Is my tradition is is our culture.
1:45:41It's my tradition.
1:45:45One day one of my son will do more than
1:45:47me.
1:45:49>> In parts of Nigeria where there's still
1:45:51extreme poverty, we find families like
1:45:54these shoe makers who still desire to
1:45:57have larger families. So you just had
1:46:00your sixth child at age 32. Do you plan
1:46:03to have more children?
1:46:06>> Don't do children.
1:46:14While birth rates are falling more
1:46:15slowly in Nigeria, from the mix of
1:46:18stories I heard in Malawi, I could sense
1:46:21the start of a transition.
1:46:26[Music]
1:46:33for
1:46:38[Music]
1:47:01[Music]
1:47:06As you know that here in Malawi,
1:47:08education is a key to all things. For my
1:47:12school, I almost walk for
1:47:161 hour to reach my school.
1:47:18>> Bikes.
1:47:18>> Yeah.
1:47:19>> For 1 hour.
1:47:20>> Yeah.
1:47:22>> Every day.
1:47:23>> Each and every day. Two and four.
1:47:25>> Two. So you're walking 2 hours to school
1:47:27every day?
1:47:28>> Yeah.
1:47:29>> Do you yourself plan to get married? Of
1:47:32course. Yes.
1:47:34>> And you'd like to have children, maybe?
1:47:36>> Of course. Yes.
1:47:39>> How many?
1:47:41>> Only two.
1:47:42>> And do you plan to have children?
1:47:44>> Yes.
1:47:45>> How many?
1:47:46>> One.
1:47:47>> Ideally, at what age?
1:47:49>> I think at 26. That's when I will finish
1:47:52my school because I would like to reach
1:47:54to have a master's degree. So to reach
1:47:57that goal, I think it will take me
1:47:59almost 6 years from now. I understand in
1:48:02Malawi men sometimes have more than one
1:48:04wife. How would you feel if your husband
1:48:07had a second wife?
1:48:09>> For myself, I would suggest to divorce.
1:48:12>> You would divorce?
1:48:13>> No.
1:48:13>> Me too. I'll go for that.
1:48:15>> Me too. Second sale.
1:48:18>> One second.
1:48:20>> Okay. They want to get in. They stay.
1:48:23>> They're trying their home. The chickens
1:48:26are giving us audio issues. Malawi felt
1:48:30far from where my journey began. Yet
1:48:33hearing these three students talk of
1:48:35their dreams for education, careers, and
1:48:38family, I felt I could have been
1:48:40listening to young people's challenges
1:48:42in Tokyo, Milan, London, or LA. Here it
1:48:48was like going back in time and
1:48:50witnessing the transition to delayed
1:48:53parenthood with my own eyes. And the
1:48:56vitality curve tells us that delayed
1:48:59parenthood on any continent will lead to
1:49:02high levels of unplanned childlessness
1:49:05and soon enough birth gaps.
1:49:09>> Do I think that the birth gap could get
1:49:10that wide in South Africa? Maybe you
1:49:14just find people having children
1:49:16slightly later. I don't think that would
1:49:18happen in South Africa. But what about
1:49:20the idea of unplanned childlessness
1:49:22where people first focus on education
1:49:24and building careers and then when
1:49:26they're ready they find they don't have
1:49:27a partner or they no longer can children
1:49:31>> that could happen. Yeah.
1:49:36>> In every low birth rate nation I've
1:49:38researched it's the average age of
1:49:41parenthood that determines birth rates
1:49:44and the level of childlessness.
1:49:47But why does the average age limit the
1:49:50number of people who will become
1:49:52parents?
1:49:54It comes down to something I call
1:49:56reproductive synchrony. The more of us
1:49:59who reach the stage of life for dating,
1:50:01bonding, and starting families at the
1:50:04same time, the more births will follow
1:50:07in a remarkably predictable way. But
1:50:10when those years stretch out, when
1:50:12family formation happens later and over
1:50:15a wider range of ages, fewer people
1:50:18become parents at all. It's that simple.
1:50:23And that's why any solution to the birth
1:50:26rate crisis that ignores the age of
1:50:28parenthood is going to fail. Because
1:50:31ready or not, nature doesn't wait.
1:50:36I'm like kind of like not ready.
1:50:38>> Hell no. Hell to the no. I'm not ready
1:50:41to have kids.
1:50:42>> I'm young now. I'm enjoying sis. So
1:50:45right now I don't think about children.
1:50:48>> I don't think that it is something that
1:50:49I can decide right now.
1:50:51>> It's just not so much a topic right now.
1:50:54>> If I do get to 32 and I haven't met
1:50:56somebody, I think perhaps I would start
1:50:57to be more inclined to worrying about
1:51:00that.
1:51:00>> I would be really sad if I found out
1:51:02kids weren't an option. I mean although
1:51:04I don't want kids right now, I do want
1:51:06to be a mother one day. I see so many
1:51:08girls wants to have children. There are
1:51:10some girls who don't that don't want to
1:51:13have children. But there are many girls
1:51:16who wants to have children. I do
1:51:18sometimes worry that if I don't have
1:51:19children, I could be lonely. Yeah.
1:51:22>> And if it turns out that you don't have
1:51:24a partner or can't have a child in your
1:51:26mid to late 30s,
1:51:27>> I certainly would feel like there's
1:51:28something missing. Let me share
1:51:31something with you that in Japan today,
1:51:34less than half of women turning 26
1:51:38without a child will ever become
1:51:41mothers.
1:51:43What has to change?
1:51:46>> Um,
1:51:49well,
1:51:52can I think a little can I think a
1:51:54little bit? Without change, this birth
1:51:57gap crisis will never end. And we will
1:52:00get to watch our communities fade away
1:52:03like civilizations of the past. Time is
1:52:08on no one's side when it comes to this
1:52:11crisis.
1:52:13>> It's really difficult question.
1:52:18>> Yeah, there are so many things that we
1:52:19need to change.
1:52:23After nine years making this
1:52:25documentary, that's my conclusion too.
1:52:30Many things have to change to support
1:52:33the young.
1:52:37So where should we even start? For me,
1:52:40it begins with education and awareness.
1:52:44Awareness of the likelihood of becoming
1:52:46a parent by age drawn from real world
1:52:48data. Students should know these
1:52:51probabilities early so they can better
1:52:54plan their lives. An awareness that
1:52:56finding a partner is the key to starting
1:52:58a family. An awareness that whether we
1:53:01like it or not, dating is a race. And
1:53:04the longer we wait to settle down, the
1:53:06less likely it will ever happen. But
1:53:09awareness alone will not be enough.
1:53:11Societies must reinvent themselves
1:53:13around younger parenthood so that those
1:53:16who want to have children earlier in
1:53:18life are supported and not penalized.
1:53:22Education should be streamlined and
1:53:25shift towards lifelong learning,
1:53:27allowing students to start their careers
1:53:29sooner. Employers should publish how
1:53:32many of their staff go on to become
1:53:34parents so young people can choose
1:53:36career paths and workplaces that will
1:53:39truly support them. and government
1:53:42policy should focus mainly on younger
1:53:45parents.
1:53:46We have all the evidence from data and
1:53:49history that not all nations are likely
1:53:52to survive this crisis. Those that do
1:53:56will rebuild everything around the
1:53:58young.
1:54:00[Music]
1:54:04Heat. Heat.
1:54:06[Music]
1:54:40Oh,
1:54:47[Music]
1:54:51true.
1:54:58[Applause]
1:55:06There's no right time.
1:55:14[Music]
1:55:45I don't think there is
1:55:47ever one reason for having children nor
1:55:51wanting to have children. Um so for me
1:55:53it's a very obviously a very personal
1:55:54choice and often times people find it
1:55:58absolutely baffling that as a school
1:56:00teacher I don't want children and I have
1:56:02to justify my stance particularly as a
1:56:05woman I know for a fact my husband does
1:56:07not get that at all.
1:56:15[Music]
1:56:29[Music]
1:56:33I think the only thing I worry about is
1:56:37if like people say to me all the time,
1:56:40"Were you going to regret this later?"
1:56:43Um,
1:56:46which I think is just one of those
1:56:49society manipulation
1:56:52things cuz it's a big job. It's a hard
1:56:54job and
1:56:56I don't think it is for everyone.
1:56:59[Music]
1:57:01After having the children and I got to
1:57:05know another joy of life, my priority of
1:57:08my life totally changed.
1:57:12in a good way or a different way or
1:57:16>> both.
1:57:19I think have children of a baby. It's
1:57:23something
1:57:26it's miracle.
1:57:34[Music]

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